Economic pressures

[Danny B]

BTC, wages, gold-oil, currency war


This is the NORMAL outcome of a currency war. This gains export advantage and forces others to devalue their currency. BUT, a currency war, seen from street level, is a cut in wages.
And the result,
Financial crash: US heading for dollar collapse 10 years after 2007 crisis | Daily Star

BTC notes;


GDP is barely growing at about 1%. Keep in mind that GOV counts money as part of gdp when it is printed AND counts it again when it is spent.
Also,

Finally, here is a suspicious article, https://www.rt.com/news/400265-barce...ove-to-israel/
I'm taking my BOV to my BOL for some R & R for a few days so, I'll be AFK.

[Danny B]

Catching up on Armstrong

A lot going on and, it will take quite a bit of reading to catch up. I'll start with Armstrong.
"The Draghi era of negative interest rates has proven to be a complete disaster. People have withdrawn money and preferred to buy safes. "
"firing expensive staff with experience, and replacing them with inexperienced kids. Additionally, the low-interest environment and the decline in deposits has resulted in a major contraction in bank branches. As banks also move to online banking, they have been able to reduce staff. In 2016, the banks let go some 50,000 jobs. They were also able to close some 9100 branches throughout the EU"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/european-banking-crisis-3/

The German pension system is BROKE. The answer is,,,, TAXES, of course.
"The German government is desperate for money and what they are doing now is just unbelievable. Germany is looking to order companies to prepay VAT tax before they even collect it. Companies in Germany will now have to pay the VAT immediately to the government on any amount they have billed to a customer. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/germany-to-tax-vat-just-billing-people-before-they-pay/

Race wars are on the menu.We can't just print money. The bankers would all shrivel up and die.
"While Draghi has expanded the money supply for almost 10 years, deflation has prevailed proving once and for all that the Quantity of Money theory is simply not correct"
"we have reached at times 70% of the entire national debt was composed of accumulative interest expenditures. So the money never went to build roads, schools, or help the poor as politicians pretend. "
YES, but, the bankers are very happy. DIALOGUE,,,, with all the miscreants in congress,,,,,may be with the swamp?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/is-there-a-way-out-of-this-financial-mess/

"When the climate turns cold, that is when food shortages takes place. When the climate turns warm, that is when economic activity starts and empires expand. The cold period we are entering will be on time for the shift in empires going forward."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/climate-change-economic-activity/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/central-banks-investing-in-equities/

The evolutionary cycle of civilization, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...v-renaissance/

[Danny B]

Financialization in a bubble world

Here is a short vid on financialization. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN9xvzPEBIU
Every physical object is "converted / labelled as a financial instrument. I do not know if that includes your birth certificate.
The post-war United States went on a mission to control the whole world. The greatest sin of Donald Trump is to attempt to reverse the accumulation of empire.

https://theintercept.com/2017/09/24/decline-american-empire-donald-trump/

The FED created a giant bubble in everything. It did this in the name of rescuing the banks and financial system. With 95 million Americans no longer in the labor force, the productive economy was just too weak and small to keep the banks in business. Things have only gotten worse and the FED can't withdraw stimulus without causing a huge crash. They talk a good story of reducing stimulus but, they can't escape.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-us-federal-reserve-4-5-trillion-sell-off-central-bankers-at-the-end-of-their-ropes/5610236

SO, where did the $4.4 trillion accounting discrepancy come from?

[Danny B]

Yuan-Gold-Oil,,, IMPOSSIBLE to predict

As the empire unravels, pieces shoot off in all trajectories. There is NO coherent picture that includes all the pieces. It is more difficult, day by day to project which piece is going where. Bitcoin is the perfect example. One day, it's good. The next day, it is bad,,, feared by CBs and States.
After cryptocurrencies, comes GOLD. The Chinese plan for gold and oil to move together. Actually, they move in complementary opposite directions. The petro-Yuan is slated to replace the petro-dollar. The petro-dollar was created when the gold-backed dollar died in 1971. The Saudis were given a deal that they couldn't safely refuse.

China will pay for oil in Yuan. This Yuan can be directly converted into gold. The Bretton Woods deal was D.O.A. because it set a fixed price on gold. The gold-Yuan-oil deal will float.

"exporters of oil to China will accept the Chinese currency, the Yuan, in payment for oil; for this deal, the Chinese have added an incentive: the Yuan received by the oil exporters will be exchangeable for gold"
Sounds OK but, there is a wild card. "This gold will be "sourced", i.e. "purchased" outside of China, for the oil exporters."
Apparently, this means that China MUST buy gold on the open market to pay for oil.
"This scheme - should China effectively carry through on its intentions - is quite revolutionary and likely to have vast consequences which will affect the whole world.

For the first time, since August of 1971- 46 years ago - gold will once again form part of commercial international transactions.

Not only is it a first in 46 years, but the Chinese are linking together both the world's real money, gold, and the world's most important commodity, oil, which is the fundamental motor of all the world's productive activity."
"In the final analysis, we can eliminate calculations of the Dollar price of the barrel of oil, and the Dollar price of gold. The final calculation will have to be the relationship that the world markets establish between oil and gold.

Enormous amounts of oil going to China will have to be paid in gold. An economic balance will be established between those enormous quantities of oil and a relatively tiny amount of gold with which to pay for them. Only the world markets will determine that relationship, but we can see that the intermediate figures in the relationship - the price of oil, the value of gold, the value of the Yuan and the value of the Dollar will all be affected as the economic relationship between vast amounts of oil and scarce amounts of gold is determined."
"The establishment of a nexus between, oil, the world's most important commodity and foundation of the world's industrial activity, and gold, which is the world's true money, will overthrow everything which we have taken for granted during the last 46 years."
"Needless to say, the very big devaluation of the Dollar will place the US in an extremely difficult situation."
.:Plata:.

GEAB weighs in on this same subject, Western Systemic Crisis 2017-2019 – The Almighty dollar against the Great Petro-Yuan Temptation | GEABexterior gold, they can just spend their dollars and run down their dollar surplus. This would force America to accept these securities from third parties. After the Chinese dollar hoard is run down, they don't need to continue with vendor-financing for exports to America. The Wal Marts will run empty.

[Danny B]

The No-Baby economy

At one time, the finance industry accounted for about 5% of American GDP. When "money" had a positive value, the parasites got very little of it. When "money" was created as debt, the parasites created it with wild abandon. When bankers create faux money, they are first in line at the money spigot. They survive on constant inflation. The finance industry now accounts for a far bigger part of the GDP,,,, the GDP being nothing more than a count of how much money is in the system.

The bankers rapidly inflate the money supply (inflation) causing steady price inflation. You pay three time the fraction of your income to buy a house as your grandfather did. This is because the average worker must sell his labor and has no leverage (collective bargaining). Wages lag ever-more behind price inflation. Both parents had to go to work to survive this creeping wage-deflation + price inflation. Would-be parents didn't have the time or money to have children.

Several States have come to realize that the economy can't grow if the population is shrinking. Everyone is working too hard to have time & money for kids. The Korean GOV has come up with the brilliant idea that; they can put all the women to work and those same women will have more babies.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/biz/2017/09/367_236941.html

China "From 2007 to 2014, the country's debt quadrupled, to $28 trillion from $7 trillion. Over the same period, China's economy grew to $10.5 trillion from $3.5 trillion.

These numbers are staggering and point to one indisputable fact: All Chinese growth since 2007 has come from borrowing. There was no miracle in it. But it gets worse...much worse. The numbers also show that every $1 of new debt brought only pennies of GDP growth. "
The States with the worst demographics also have the worst debt problems. There are just not enough babies being born to keep the debt-currency bubble inflated.

https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/73023/world-s-largest-economies-facing-huge-problems

[Danny B]

More and more people left behind


The rich write the rules and they have taken good care of themselves. Sooner or later, they will discover that the default cascade will turn their riches into worthless paper.
Financialization has moved a lot of debt from Wall Street to silicon valley. It is thought to be even more risky.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2017-09-18/the-next-crisis-will-start-in-silicon-valley

Silicon valley has almost NO appreciation of what risk really means. They loan anything to anybody.
Levered Loan Volumes Soar Past 2007 Levels As "Cov-Lite" Deals Surge | Zero Hedge
American companies are sitting on mountains of both debt and cash.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-09-22/corporate-cash-isn-t-doing-much-but-hiding-debt

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/09/left-behind/

[Danny B]

Legal tender vs debt

For much of man's history, money had a positive value. Starting a couple of centuries ago, debt began to be traded like money. If somebody owed you money, that was just the same as having that money in your pocket. The bankers were gradually allowed to create more and more of the money supply. It is ALL debt but, it is treated as wealth. Here are some thoughts on money but, you should read the whole article.

"Within the U.S. there is a debt-free money already available that circumvents bank lending, it's called "legal tender". Legal tender is not borrowed, loaned or spent into circulation and the only legal way it gets into circulation, is by your demonstrated productivity and by your demand for the medium.
Another interesting thing, neither the Fed or the banks possess the legal authority to create money, and they don't. What they do create is asset-backed, debt-based private credit, which is not designated or acknowledged in law as being a money, or a currency, or a medium of exchange, with the only legal aspect associated with it, residing in the debts incurred with its use.
nowhere in law does it designate or even acknowledge Fed and bank generated asset-backed, debt-based private credit as being a legal tender, or money, or currency, or a medium of exchange, it is 100% Bank Debt, even when it comes from the Fed.

People are confusing a means of payment, the transfer of a debt obligation (credit), for the medium of exchange, what is owed as payment (an asset). By legal definition, United States coins and currency, including Federal reserve notes, are legal tender money, a medium of exchange (the asset) by law.Banks are not intermediaries between borrowers and savers, they originate pseudo-loans as pseudo-deposits, irrespective of credited savings accounts or current reserves held." Keep this in mind. The article has many interesting links.
Random Thoughts

"By 1990, the median U.S. citizen had less disposable income than the median cost of living; i.e., the blue line turned negative. This trend lower has continued ever since. The 2008 financial crisis proved to be a tipping point where the burden of debt was too much for many consumers to handle. Since 2008 the negative trend in the blue line has further steepened."
"Note that the green line, unlike the blue line, remains positive and relatively stable from 1959 to 2008, 20 years longer than the blue line. The take away is that consumer and government debt filled the diverging gap between incomes and the cost of living."
"The divergence between the lines halted in 2008. The financial crisis was in part the result of a consumer that had exhausted their ability to use more debt to maintain their lifestyle. Despite the lowest interest rates on record and increases in government transfer payments, the green line has not been able to recover."
"To impress upon you the importance of understanding the role debt has played in supporting our lifestyles, the graph below highlights the magnitude and composition of consumer credit and government transfer payments as a percentage of consumer spending. Combined they now account for 43% of all consumer spending, which in turn accounts for nearly 70% of economic growth. In other words, almost a third of economic growth is reliant on increasing debt."
2 excellent graphs.
The Illusion Of Prosperity | Zero Hedge
(U. S. Money) If you just want to count actual notes and coins, there are about U.S. $1.2 trillion floating around the globe.

[Danny B]

Gordon Long: They MUST CONTROL GOLD To Control Interest Rates | Silver Doctors

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/politicians-starting-to-run-away-from-global-warming/

Norway did NOT drink the Koolaide. They did not buy public debt.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/norway-the-largest-sovereign-wealth-fund-in-the-world/

Mario Draghi (Goldman Sachs) is the manufacturer of much of the Koolaide.
"My question is this. Have the measures taken by the ECB resulted not in averting a crisis, but transforming it into a far greater risk and simply extended the entire deflationary process?"
"Absolutely. This entire policy has failed to create inflation and has proven that inflation is not driven purely by the quantity of money. Confidence is the critical factor. The rich can move their capital to foreign lands. However, the average person cannot move their labor or money offshore. They have withdrawn their cash from the banks to place in their safes at home reducing bank deposits. The negative interest rates have hurt the pension funds and the elderly who once upon a time were able to support their retirement upon interest income "
"The ECB has seriously hurt the European economy and is now trapped. It owns 40% of Eurozone debt and an uptick in rates will devastate its portfolio holdings and probably create the biggest loss in the history of any central bank. Meanwhile, governments have been on life support and never reformed. When the ECB cannot buy more government debt, watch how fast rates rise. We are looking at a crisis that has no historical precedent."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/ecb-negative-rate-experiment-may-lead-to-the-worst-financial-crisis-in-modern-history/

Venezuelan Women Forced To Turn To Prostitution To Afford Food | Zero Hedge

"I had the 1961 edition. In it, Samuelson, a prominent Keynesian economist who won the Nobel prize in economics, predicted that the economy of the Soviet Union would overtake the U. S. economy in 23 years (by 1984). Even as late as the 11th edition (1980), Samuelson stood by his prediction."
"So how is it possible that Samuelson and his fellow Keynesians could even consider that a planned economy could work better than a free economy? For 11 editions he persisted in believing that failed theory. And a generation of students left school with the idea that a centrally planned economy could work."
"Therein lies the problem: contemporary economics is not able to explain what happens in the real world. The lack of valid theory, the improper use of mathematics (econometrics) and raw empirical research as a substitute for good theory has led contemporary economics to a dead-end. Even worse, they recommend economic policies that often achieve the opposite of what they intended and make problems worse. And, we end up paying for their mistakes."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/if-economists-are-so-smart-why-are-they-always-wrong

[Danny B]

[Danny B]

Gov vs. GOV

In 1932, 17,000 veterans who were POOR demanded that GOV pay them for their bonus certificates.
"Army Chief of Staff General Douglas MacArthur commanded the infantry and cavalry supported by six tanks. The Bonus Army marchers with their wives and children were driven out, and their shelters and belongings burned."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonus_Army

The standing army used tanks and troops and horses to drive off army veterans.

"The BBC has come out and reported that three million savers in Britain in what is known as final-salary pension schemes only have a 50/50 chance of receiving the payouts they were promised"
"The odds of those in government receiving what they were promised is probably less than 50/50 worldwide with few exceptions."
"Political Hell is coming to an eventful end as Spain sends in 16,500 troops to invade Barcelona and subjugate Catalonia "
"This is the crisis we face in Democracy. Government will become more Draconian as we see in Spain to retain power. To hell with human rights or even what is moral. Government will only act in its own self-interest."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/pension-crisis/the-pension-crisis-coming-to-a-boil/

What Could Go Wrong? For Public Pensions, More Than You Know | Connecting the Dots Investment Newsletter | Mauldin EconomicsPension Storm Warning | Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics

https://storify.com/SuaveBel/myths-of-capital-the-preamble

[Danny B]

public debt,,, stock market reality

Going forward, we are going to see an increasing battle between GOV employees and the taxpayer. California just raised the snot out of various taxes. It won't cover the pension shortfalls for State employees but, they had to do something.
Kentucky is farther advanced on the road to insolvency that California.
Teachers Demand $3,200 From Each Kentucky Household To Fund Pension Ponzi For 2 Years | Zero Hedge
Cute pic, http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0Grenade_0.png

No matter how much they raise taxes and employee contributions, the demands ALWAYS outgrow the inflows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/08/29/2017.08.29%20-%20Kentucky%202_0.JPG

A New Challenge to the Dollar | Euro Pacific Capital

2 articles on the stock market and margin debt.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/1f610b_c986c49b60c642e7bcaba095c1ca5cc1.pdf

https://www.financialsense.com/jill-mislinski/look-nyse-margin-debt-and-market-0

EXCELLENT GRAPHS.

Venezuela is being persecuted by everybody who wants their considerable oil. Maduro is no angel but, the America is making things much worse.

DO NOT WORRY!,
A revision fixes everything.

[Danny B]

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/09/the-koyaanisqatsi-economy/

Spain is nearing civil war, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...g-separatists/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/2015-75-was-just-the-beginning/

Armstrong is just too focused on markets. The markets are being buoyed by continuous liquidity infusions from the FED. He never mentions wages.

[Danny B]

Dick Eastman on the money supply

On Sunday, September 24, 2017 10:42 AM, Dick Eastman <[email protected]> wrote:

Lording over all organized crime is the Bank-of-England/East-India-Company/Rothschild system of interest slavery under which each nation borrows its entire money supply at compound interest. A super mafia of Jewish merchant bankers dictates national money supply quantities and lending volume. No business, entrepreneur or home buyer can do anything until a money lender gains an "interest" in the undertaking, that is unless someone signs a contract obligating the payment of interest and return of principal for each amount of loan deposit created. No nation can simply create its own permanent money and distribute it among its citizens for their use. The lending of an entire nation's money supply at interest is the exaction of tribute. It is national slavery.

And money is only provided for the economy as long as someone is credited as having assets or money-earning opportunities from which interest tribute may be drawn. There is no escape from this interest servitude because there can never be enough money for all existing debt to be paid off so that each month there are additional defaults, foreclosures, bankruptcies and seizure of assets pledged as collateral. National economies always tend to deflationary depression and debt tends to increase. It does not happen all at once because the interest payments are made over periods of a year or several years, but it is always happening.

Every yen, pound, rupee, dollar, dinar, peso etc. is co-created with an obligation for the borrower to pay that much plus interest and the lender has claim regardless of whether the borrower defaults on the loan or not. The laws are entirely loaded in favor of the lender and against the borrower, even though both signed the loan contract and the borrower provided the opportunity of the return.

There is no need for any nation to borrow its money supply. A people can declare their independence from organized crime in money and lending and in government. They can form new governments which will provide the money supply without charge, from "thin air," simply by naming a new monetary unit and declaring it legal tender for all debts and contracts and for the paying of taxes and then distributing this money to the people by way of a "new money dividend" so that the people themselves can spend it into circulation. The power of money creation can be taken out of the hands of bank. The nation's banks can be reorganized into mere lending clubs, where people who have saved money from consumption can pool it with the money of other savers and lend it out at interest without regulation. The borrower and the lender will share the risks 50-50. In the event of default, the lender will assume half of the responsibility for the default. If a bank lends on risky ventures that fail, the "lending club" will lose with the borrower.

In such an populist economy there will be a lot more economic expansion from business people from their own earned profits. The prices of goods will be perhaps 40 percent lower because of less interest-burden component going into the price. And government will be able to finance all of its activities with tax financing. The national debt of government can be repudiated on the principle that fraud vitiates all contracts and the international lending system is a fraudulent criminal racket.

The only problem with this is not in the details of the solution, but in the fact that no one hearing about it thinks its worth the fight that is required to loose the hands of organized crime from our throats. Nevertheless, I ask you to support this idea by teaching others about our situation and this remedy. Out of 7 billion people in the world there must be someone who would like to see humanity set free.

Dick Eastman
Yakima, Washington

[Danny B]

Graphs,,, wage deflation brings monetary deflation

I have a bunch of charts that are very informative. The world has low-wage States and the world has high-wage States. As shipping gets more efficient, the cost of trade and transportation falls.

http://voxeu.org/sites/default/files/image/NVF1.JPG

As shipping costs fell, shipping volume rose, https://cdn.static-economist.com/sit...518_FNC639.png
So, trade is growing. BUT, much of this trade is with low-wage States. http://thecorner.eu/wp-content/uploa...-2-777x400.jpg

Capital can instantly flee to the best market. Labor can not. Labor is "stuck" where it is at, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ed6040119e.gif
Here are historical wages adjusted for (bogus) inflation numbers. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_1pb7adF2Rp...+Long+Term.jpg
Just the same, labor is losing ground.
Minimum wage compared to gold. The angle of the fall is quite steep. http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-cont...ge-in-gold.png

Wages haven't gone anywhere, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...s-YoY-Real.gif

http://api.theweek.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/fredgraph%20%2814%29.png?itok=3auLlb-0

It is easy to see why our wages have crashed. Taking all this together shows that the American worker has had continuous wage deflation. We had no money to spend on discretionary stuff and the economy was rapidly deflating. The banks jumped in with more and more debt money because they are scared stiff of general deflation. Our wages couldn't keep the economy going so, the State jumped in with TARP money.

As wages continue to deflate, the financial parasites whipped up financialization to make up the difference,,, so that they never lose. The "Affordable Care Act" is only affordable if you make $110,000 a year.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170926005576/en/Affordable-Care-Act-Health-Insurance-Unaffordable-2018

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/09/29/us-economy-failing-paul-craig-roberts/

Low-wage competitors brought wage deflation. The financial sector is hard at work to hold back economic deflation. They are "forced" to take a larger and larger chunk out of the productive economy. Meanwhile, the FED prints mega-tons of "money". This money must flow somewhere and, it does. There is little deflation in the upper loop. BUT, 1/3 of the companies in the Russell 2,000 index have negative cash flow. The stock market is where the rubber meets the road. The lower loop is responsible for most of the consumption. The stock market values are pumped up like a blood-engorged tick. BUT, it is the lower loop that creates earnings for the stock market.
The earnings just aren't there. All those $trillions have to be parked somewhere so, much of it remains in the stock market. This article shows the margin debt, https://www.financialsense.com/jill-...t-and-market-0
The sad fact is; all this free money will never flow into wages. The lower loop will continue to deflate. U.S. GOV will continue to try to cover the shortfall. GOV borrowed $ 317 billion in just one day.
"By 1990, the median U.S. citizen had less disposable income than the median cost of living; i.e., the blue line turned negative. This trend lower has continued ever since. "
"total budget deficits reported since 2002 totalled $9.4 trillion, while the national debt rose by $13.8 trillion. Just a slight $4.4 trillion accounting discrepancy"

Apparently, the FED is locked-in to printing whatever it takes to keep the party going. The alternative is a deflationary cascade of default that would leave NOTHING standing.
Nobody knows who is credit-worthy and who is not credit worthy. Buffet (not Jimmy) said that; you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. A credit lockup would mean the end of the West.

[Danny B]

Current reading

Have no doubt, the State is there only to preserve the power and wealth of the State.
"Inflation peaked at 500 billion percent before the national currency was abandoned in a favour of the US dollar".
"Unemployment in Zimbabwe is estimated at over 90 percent, and at least 80 percent of government revenue is used to pay state workers' wages."

https://www.enca.com/money/spectre-of-zimbabwe-hyperinflation-triggers-panic-buying

The Federal Reserve has NO army. I believe it is being forced to print whatever the banks and GOV claim is necessary. This may account for the $ 4.4 trillion discrepancy between the deficit and the debt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/02/fed-chair-favorite-warsh-believes-central-bank-is-slave-of-the-sp.html

The public pension funds are broke but, here is a claim that they are flooding the market with cash.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-bull-market-keep-running-211235693.html

This $700 Billion Public Employee Ticking Time Bomb Is Only 6.7% Funded; Most States Are Under 1% | Zero Hedgehttps://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...-action-needed

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/111014/upon-next-crisis-rules-will-suddenly-change

Fitts writes about a missing $ 21 trillion, https://usawatchdog.com/21-trillion-...-austin-fitts/
Israel is fighting tooth and nail (but not with israeli blood or treasure) to destroy Syria and annex the Golan Heights. Seems that there is a LOT of oil there. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-saudi-arabia/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/press/mainstream-media-is-the-third-horseman-of-economic-apocalypse/

Keep in mind that, although Armstrong has had some "misses" while predicting economic numbers, he has been very accurate at predicting social movements. He was VERY accurate at predicting the breakaway in Catalonia.