Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Balance between, taxes, profits and wages

"crack down on all the exchanges"

https://sputniknews.com/asia/201712131059958246-tax-raid-bitcoin-exchange/

global mean wage,You can see the problem unfolding. The money comes in and stays until it sees the next "best deal" and then, it flees and leaves a smoking ruin.
"Most of the scepticism is directed at short-term financial flows, which are so given to crisis and excess,"
Excellent article

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-great-globalisation-lie-economics-finance-trump-brexit

Globalism gutted the wage base and made a few people super-rich. It threatened to freeze up the economy so, money was pumped into various channels, NOT INTO WAGES. It is going to take a complete crash of the corporatocracy for the modern-day fascists to appreciate the fact that would-be consumers require a living wage if they are going to consume anything more than just food.

AI, AI Building AI: Mankind Losing More Control Over Artificial Intelligence

https://www.wired.com/story/future-of-artificial-intelligence-2018/?mbid=nl_121317_backchannel_p3

[Danny B]

Millennials to inherit the worst economy possible

Some areas are doing well,,, some are doing poorly. The rural areas are farthest from the cities that are the main centers of what is left of value-added manufacturing. I previously wrote about rural poverty.

http://www.energeticforum.com/241618-post282.html

The cities are more likely to hold lots of administrative jobs. The coastal cities are deeply involved in finish manufacturing of imported goods. The counties around the District of Corruption are doing the best of all.
The same is true for different age groups.
By some reckoning, the millennials have it the worst.
Millennials Are Screwed - The Huffington Post
By many accounts, they blame the boomers. It's just a simple fact of the markets that America slipped away from it's post-war prosperity due to competition.

Some

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SP500-Drawdowns-1928-Present.png

Wages as a share of corporate profits, http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...tio-121317.png

"There was no catalyst that we know of that burst the dot-com bubble in 2000. There was no catalyst that started the slide in the markets in 2008"

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-rude-awakening-of-slumbering-bulls/

David Stockman has made it very clear that stock earnings have gone nowhere for the last 20 years when corrected for price inflation.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/peak-fantasy-time/

John Hussman, as usual, has all the numbers.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mmc171204/

The stock market is over valued by about 2.8 times. What will happen to all the pension funds when market come crashing back to earth AND overshoot their historical norm,,, on the way to the basement?
That was just a warmup.
Where were they when obummer was waterboarding everybody in sight?
Nope,, Iran is safe. They can easily take out Saudi and israel and block the Straights of Hormuz AND destroy Saudi oil production. This Jerusalem declaration has cemented together most of the Arab States. Jordan, et al will sit on the sidelines. Iran and Lebanon will unleash total hell that is unstoppable.

[Danny B]

Whos is right and who is wrong about the asset markets?

Here is a repost;
"Indeed it could be argued that the prospect of tax cuts is the final carrot the free money scheme has to offer. The carrot top. No more carrots.
Consider the central banking liquidity game has peaked and is dropping off:"
Great graph of the withdrawal of liquidity from the CBs.

https://i2.wp.com/northmantrader.com...77%2C266&ssl=1

https://i1.wp.com/northmantrader.com...52%2C325&ssl=1

"The prospect of imminent tax cuts keeps investor salivating and allocating cash into all time highs as markets drenched in 8 years of artificial liquidity find tax cuts to be the next carrot to push markets caps into the stratosphere:"

https://northmantrader.com/2017/12/03/the-carrot-top/

OK, so we hear that no more carrots are coming to the markets.

Rest of world

https://dollarcollapse.com/money-bubble/biggest-bubble-ever-three-charts/

Everybody wants to know how long this can keep going.
Armstrong has the answer and, I find it hard to believe.
"The Trump Tax Reform reducing the corporate tax to 21% and taking effect January 1st, 2018 rather than being delayed until 2019, will be one of the biggest positive catalysts for US equities in decades. This is very interesting because it is now fundamentally validating what our computer has been projecting for highs going up to the 40,000 level on the Dow back in 2009."
"Our projections for 2017 stood at 25,648.40 and this rises to 28,045.71 for 2018. This is the next area of resistance. Once we push through that projection, the market will come back to test it."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-dow-trump-tax-reform/

OK, so Dollar Collapse is reporting 16.9% growth of foreign holdings of U.S. assets. Apparently, Armstrong is calling for this to go on for years. The tax cut is our "final carrot". What about inflows foreign capital?
America is a currency union with a debt union. Europe is a currency union WITHOUT a debt union. China looks to be a big pot of nitrogen triiodide
The stock market has no actual earnings. It is just juiced up by buybacks. Can the Dow go to 40,000 without earnings? U.S. corporate debt is at nosebleed heights. Does that matter? Only 2 or 3 American companies have AAA rated credit. Does that matter? China will blow first. Will that not affect America?
The Swiss CB bought $ billions of U.S. assets. Will foreign CBs continue to support American markets? Armstrong has said that investors would rotate out of public debt and INTO private debt. Can he possibly be projecting a continuing surge in the stock market at the same time that public debt collapses?
The Russell and Wilshire stock indexes are collapsing. Can the Dow and S&P keep rising when the broad index and the small caps are in meltdown?

Socrates, Armstrong's program receives the news feeds. I suspect that it doesn't get ALL the news. Here is a bit from Jim Willie.
"BRICS Gold Trading platform with independence even consequences for making big challenges to London and COMEX, the arrival of Dual Universe featuring USD vs RMB with pressures on the United States to launch its domestic only new currency, the Repatriated Dollar issue in $20 trillion volume with tax rates as well as risks, "

http://www.goldenjackass.com/main5.html

"two vise jams the Saudis find themselves with Pentagon White Hats versus Langley Narcos and with West versus Iran & Eastern superpowers, the great financial bubbles being created in the United States with their sources identified,"
Socrates may very well predict sentiment and capital flows but, there is more going on than that.

The tax bill will further gut American society. Things are bad enough already.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-what-happened-to-the-american-dream-its-not-pretty-2017-12-14

The fallout from our great slide down is taking a huge toll.

https://www.defiantliving.com/2017/12/14/americas-painful-self-delusion/

"In this shining beacon on the hill, we cherish our demockery. We have turned tyranny, fascism, hypocrisy, treason bribery, and high crimes into an art form, a blood sport, and a national past time. We have corrupted nearly every institution in America. We are the gangrenous deep state, backed by the parastic central bank, and defended by the military industrial complex:"

https://rebel0007com.wordpress.com/2017/12/13/omerta-has-destroyed-america/

[Danny B]

Moving away from public crypto,,,revenge?,,, more carrots

Bitcoin is having "growing pains"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/bitcoin-soars-through-14-000-mark-up-more-than-40-this-month?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign=hosted&cmpId=yhoo.hosted

Australian Central Bank - Bitcoin Is Bad But You'd Love A Digital "e-AUD" | Zero Hedge

Armstrong got thrown into prison by N.Y. banks and crooked judges. He did hard-time at Ft. Dix. He probably wants revenge. He told the Chinese to bypass the big N.Y. banks and buy Treasuries directly from the Treasury. The big banks lost a lot of money when the Chinese bypassed the primary dealers.
He is now projecting that the stock market will continue to climb,,, ostensibly to 40,000. I fail to understand how that could happen just on foreign capital inflows. Just the same, everybody is piling into the stock market.
JPMorgan: "This Is The Moment Everyone Went All In" | Zero Hedge
Are they being led to the slaughter? Will Armstrong extract his revenge from the GOV that falsely imprisoned him?
Is this truly the last carrot?
This is TERRIBLE news for the lawyers and the incarceration business. People will use prostitutes and intoxicants regardless of the laws. These 2 items are made illegal so that it would be worthwhile for organized crime to take them over. The Mexican mafia are all killing each other because their markets have shrunk.

[Danny B]

Saudi Arabia and israel against the world

Politics and economics are always mixed.
Warren Buffet was adamantly against the Keystone Pipeline after he bought BNSF Railroad,,,, which hauled oil by tank car.
U.S. GOV is demanding that Afghanistan dump their Kalashnikovs and buy American.
TASS: Russian Politics & Diplomacy - Lavrov: US demands Afghanistan replace 50,000 Kalashnikov rifles with US-made weapons Always trying to make a buck.
POX Americana put sanctions on Russia to stop them from competing with American gas.
TASS: Russian Politics & Diplomacy - Lavrov: Washington pushes EU to buy overpriced gas under pretext of ‘fighting’ Russia
Austria and Germany say; SCREW the sanctions, TASS: World - Austria’s new government set to lift anti-Russian sanctions
Reportedly, Europe would last 15 days without Russian gas. https://sputniknews.com/europe/20171...-gas-supplies/
You can see why they are sick and tired of the District of Corruption. Everybody wanted to block Russian gas but, it is right there when they need it.

On to more important things.
China killed a few thousand Chinese in Tienanmen square because they were protesting. China doesn't give a rat's a$$ about human rights. They happily deal with all the human rights violators around the world.
In earthshaking news, China backs a Palestinian State with al-Quds as it's capital.
PressTV-China backs State of Palestine with East al-Quds as capital
There is no way to overstate the importance of this. It isn't just China.

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/16/545834/Palestinian-Frankfurt-march-Jerusalem-Israel

Put together the headlines;

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/14/545575/Palestine-Israel-US-Trump-Jerusalem-alQuds-OIC

Bibi is absolutely RABID to start up a war with Iran.

https://www.rt.com/usa/413273-iran-haley-orders-israel/

Trump is not.

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/16/545838/MattisIranwarYemenmissileNikey-Haley

Meanwhile, Saudi is proving to be a paper tiger, https://www.rt.com/usa/413273-iran-haley-orders-israel/
Saudi has now officially teamed up with the "Great(er) Satan".

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/12/15/545683/Saudi-Arabia-Israel-relations-Saudi-Foreign-Minister-Adel-alJubeir-Saudi-Crown-Prince-Mohammed-bin-Salman

MbS has managed to piss off all the other Arabs and unite them against both Satans.

Iran and Russia will be the low-cost oil producers for the foreseeable future. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/1...Azadegan-plans
China has clearly come out against israel and Saudi Arabia. They have severely reduced their oil imports from Saudi.
Russia has clearly come out against israel by supporting Syria,,, after Bibi ordered Putin to cease.
Armstrong calls for capital flight into America. BTC is a good vehicle for capital flight BUT,

https://www.rt.com/business/413297-bitcoin-fall-russia-china-saxo/

Meanwhile, Russian investments and Russian public debt are close to being the best in the world.

http://tass.com/economy/970919

The 2 nut case religious States have teamed up together against the rest of the world.

[Danny B]

Dumping the Middle-East,,Peak cheap oil,,Chinese powder keg

Post WW II, America came out on top. We had all the gold (24,500 tons) and we had the strongest military. We had 3% of the world's population and 50% of the manufacturing capacity. The chosenites made a wise decision and bought the U.S. congress to further their dreams of world conquest & control. The Wolfowitz doctrine spelled out that Pox Americana MUST control central Asia. Things looked good for Pox Americana when Russia collapsed. Continued meddling in State affairs in Eurasia (and Latin America) insured dis-unity in much of the world.
Eventually, Russia pulled out of the morass that was the U.S.S.R.
Eventually, Iran was able to regain stability.
China came to the fore and wanted NO part of the Anglo-American hegemon ---directed by israel.

China and Russia have just recently declared against israel. While Iran is technically a theocracy, they aren't anywhere near as stupid as their neighboring theocracies, Saudi and israel. Iran has just now pulled away from the control of the West and added a huge nail in the coffin of Western control over Eurasia.
Iran Joins EAEU - 45 Years Of US Foreign Policy Down The Drain | Zero HedgeTrump, Netanyahu, & Bin Salman: Destroyers Of The Neoliberal World Order | Zero Hedge
The chosenites are hard at work to destroy Trump by any means possible. American "interests" over there are focused on the well-being of israel.
The "flailing about" is going to get a lot worse.

It now seems a sure bet that America is not going to "finesse away the oil in Central Asia.
Here is another article that you should read in it's entirety.
Summary; the baseline data shows that fracking is a complete financial disaster.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-great-oil-swindle.aspx?article=12009053808H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Chris+Martenson

It also makes the point that various economies crash when the price of oil rises. VERY good article.
The 2000 and 2007 crashes were initiated "in part" by defaults up and / or down the credit chain. The contagion moves down all the lines when it reaches critical mass. Here is a good examplke of a company the fudged it's numbers for a s long as it could.

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-enron-deja-vu-citi-bofa-hsbc-goldman-bnp-on-the-hook-as-steinhoff-spirals-down.aspx?article=11963936022H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Wolf+Richter

Considering the huge cross-border capital flows that destabilize everything, there should be a LOT more sovereign defaults.
"But a more cautious interpretation of the missing defaults is that the protracted nature of the downturn in international conditions has yet to take its cumulative toll,"

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/the-curious-case-of-the-missing-defaults-20171103

china: "cracks are appearing in Chinese markets with the Shanghai/Shenzhen suffering a 300-point drop of almost 5% over the Thanksgiving Holiday."
"It is evident that China needs and wants to deleverage-at least for right now. But, what is less clear is if China has the stamina to go through with what will be a harrowing process. After all, other attempts to rein in debt-even though half-hearted-have failed miserably. "
"The rise in China's debt grew from $7 trillion in 2007 to nearly $30 trillion today, which happens to be the greatest increase of debt in the history of the world in any ten-year timeframe."
"Given these painful imbalances, is it really credible to believe the air can be gently let out of this debt balloon with impunity? Not at all! This means Xi Jinping will have to abort this latest attempt very quickly, probably once the Shanghai Composite Exchange breaks below 3,000."
"This is because the global economy will descend into a deflationary depression without their constant heroin injections."

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-deleveraging-the-great-wall-of-chinese-debt.aspx?article=12009039126H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Michael+Pento&mk=1

[Danny B]

Crypto,,Drug addiction is big money for Big Pharma

Crypto news:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/the-practicality-of-cryptocurrencies-not-really-ready-for-prime-time/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-money-commodity-or-shares/

Missing money, https://www.rt.com/usa/413411-trilli...sing-research/
Evidently, Tillerson plans to carpet-bomb the Middle-East with hydrogen bombs. "Fell swoop"

https://www.rt.com/news/412430-lavrov-jerusalem-move-tillerson/

The corporatocracy made a real killing selling addictive drugs. At one time, both heroin and OxyContin were proclaimed to be non-addictive.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/oxycontin/article33448409/

In 2009, Purdue was again defending Patent '738 against a bid by Apotex, the Toronto-based generic-drug giant. Apotex called Purdue's claim that OxyContin reduced the number of dosages needed to kill pain, "a material misstatement made with deceptive intent."
Side note. Sherman is the CEO of Apotex, http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/1...ionaire-Policehttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ticle29570025/

[Danny B]

The FED put their finger in the dam but, the dam is cracking

Most of you have seen the cover of The Economist magazine from 1988.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/QBDtIfJWr2A/maxresdefault.jpg

It depicts a Phoenix standing on a pile of burning paper currency. The projected date for this meltdown is 2018. The IMF, et al have predicted a "reset".
Jeffry Berwick predicts that Bitcoin will rise up to near? $100,000 and then, be crashed. BTC will be blamed for the entire crash of the entire economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74A4VUC4t_A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ymSevvYPZY
Jim Rickards brings more doom porn, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd1-5IpZ4VU
Charles Huge Smith is asking if we are moving to hyperinflation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAu8Y3aQbjQ

Since the 2,008 crash, the CBs have printed about $200 trillion extra monetary units. What Smith SHOULD be asking is; when will the hyperinflation of the upper loop move into the lower loop? It only does that in peripheral economies, not central economies. (Armstrong).
As long as the wages of the main body of the population keep slipping away, we will only see price inflation, not hyperinflation. As prices go up,,, consumption goes down.
U.S. Electricity Sales Dropped In 2015 For Fifth Time In 8 Years ...
https://thinkprogress.org/u-s-electr...-time-in-8-yea...
Peak gasoline consumption, http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257...l/WGFUPUS2.gif
The financial sector of the economy can easily have hyperinflation. The tangible sectors of the economy are a different story.
The post 2008 deflationary crash was held at bay with an extra $200 trillion thrown at the problem. Since "trickle up" does not exist, the $200 trillion only made things worse.

[Danny B]

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/weekend-reading-ignorance-is-no-excuse/

GS says that everything will be fine for them, Goldman Finds Tax Reform Will Greatly Benefit The Big Banks | Zero Hedge
Larry Summers, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.8939abf2edd3
Coming up, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/b...of-living.html
An indictment of crony capital;ism, https://www.theatlantic.com/business...tm_source=feed

Nomi Prins is a high-power banker who has decided to write a newsletter. She writes about "dark money". This is in reference to the liquidity that flows from the CB and,,, who it flows to.

https://dailyreckoning.com/dark-money-runs-world/

Moas and BTC, https://www.rt.com/business/413497-b...thousand-moas/
Tilson and BTC, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...uld-hit-1-mill

Did it flow into crypto?
A taste of things to come.
No bad news allowed.
So, what would the unemployment rate be if the FED money stops?

That will be a big deal.

http://www.rense.com/general96/englanddying.html

[Danny B]

https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-12-10-evidence-points-to-bitcoin-being-an-nsa-psyop-roll-out-one-world-digital-currency.html

https://medium.com/humanizing-the-singularity/2018-year-in-preview-the-future-of-cryptocurrency-b99110480ff0

https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/c...0b7e1fe0d1.png
Total system leverage / GDP https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/c...5644ce0cb7.pngon a relative basis twice as large as the U.S. on an economy 1/3 the sizeSide noteHere's how many Americans have nothing at all saved for retirement
https://www.cnbc.com/.../heres-how-m...ll-saved-for-r...
Jun 13, 2017 - In fact, the vast majority of Americans have under $1,000 saved and half of all Americans have nothing at all put away for retirement. "Nearly half of families have no retirement account savings at all,"

https://www.investing.com/analysis/tax-reform--the-japanification-of-america-200273958

" Nomura avoided the more widely discussed - and more probable scenarios such as the Italian elections, US Impeachment risk, North Korea conflict, which it covered in its event risk radar series, and has instead selected topics that have not been as widely discussed."
He gives 10 possible "Grey Swans" I'm not impressed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-18/10-grey-swans-events-2018

[Danny B]

No wages = no economy

America lost it's post-war job niche to low-wage competitors. Is that so hard to visualize and understand? Implementation of computers and CNC machines reduced the need for many workers. As the remaining jobs became more complex, the average applicant needed to be smarter and more competent. This was at the same time that our schools were dumbing-down and indoctrinating the young.
Low IQ students had / have almost no opportunities. High IQ immigrants put a squeeze on the upper levels of the job market.
ALL of this is logical. All of it is related to market forces so, it isn't any surprise. Things were made worse by NAFTA and other agreements but, they just sped up the process.
The falling population of 16---62 year olds caused falling consumption. Again, no surprise. Cheap-peak-oil caused a general rise in prices because energy is the master resource. The gutting of the productive sector to maintain the profits of the speculative sector isn't anything new.

Downward pressure on wages from China, India, et al must be added to the downward pressure from domestic manufacturers.
Wages have been pretty much frozen for 40 years. Manufacturers move production to a place where labor is cheap and,, try to sell their stuff where prices are high. After a lag of several years, they find that the places with high prices are flat broke. The CB pumps in "money" to try to keep consumption going. They pump it into the speculative loop and,,, wait for trickle down to wages.
Computers are superior for information handling. Humans are slow and mistake-prone. The world is awash in MILLIONS of bureaucrats who add nothing to the economy. They shuffle papers to each other for a bloated paycheck. They are the ones who will be hit the hardest by the default cascade.

This hot money sloshing around the upper loop finds it's way slowly into the lower loop in the form of price inflation.
"As a result, every data release that shows wage pressures are subdued leaves central bankers scratching their heads. " 100 million people of working age are NOT in the labor force and,,, the CB can't understand why workers are not demanding higher wages.
"Indeed, for some, pricing power remains an-out-of-reach luxury. As such, some producers have had to turn to the debt markets to shoulder increasing costs."
No kidding,,, we can't afford their stuff so, they borrow money to keep afloat.
The article goes on to state that there is little inflation in consumer prices but, increasing price inflation in producer prices. The producers aren't able to pass this on because the consumer is broke. So, they borrow money to make up the difference.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-15/the-fed-s-long-awaited-wage-inflation-is-at-hand

The corporatocracy tries to maintain it's former margins from the good times. Back when jobs paid a decent wage. That time is long gone so, they try to further squeeze the worker to preserve profit margins. Did it never occur to companies that workers must have purchasing power to,,, purchase?

"3. The stock market's year-long levitation while the real-world economy decays is a perverse counter-correlation that reflects the widening divide between those enriched by the asset bubbles and those left further behind."
"4. In the midst of a supposedly resurgent U.S. "recovery" in its 9th year of wonderfulness, the opioid epidemic has killed tens of thousands and crippled hundreds of thousands of lives and families, yet the federal government, supposedly the most powerful force on the planet, is frozen in a decades-long law-enforcement/Drug Gulag obsession, blind to the Big Pharma Cartel that has created and fuelled the epidemic as a means of reaping billions in profits."
So long as the campaign contributions flow in, that is all that matters.
"9. While The Deep State has entered the common lexicon, all the media chatter does little to illuminate the internecine battles within the Deep State that are playing out as shadows cast in the Russian Collusion Kabuki theater."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Jedi Mind Trick: The Disturbing, Destabilizing Abnormal Is Now Normal

The new tax bill will push us further off the cliff. Not everyone is ignorant of this fact. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.21fd97d6f505

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/government-power-the-inversion-delusion/

Hemingway wrote a short story, The Short Happy Life of Francis Macomber. It looks like this same idea will apply to BTC.

[Danny B]

China liquidity down = world liquidity down.


Read them both. NOTHING there.
China did not want to get steam-rollered by the West. They used mega-tons of credit to launch the country forward. OVER AND OVER, they acknowledge the need to rein in the credit bubble. OVER AND OVER, they make an attempt. PBOC liquidity is also flowing into global credit markets. They have "printed" more than the FED, BOJ and ECB combined. China has the fastest falling population in the labor force. China has extremely low wages. China plans to switch over to a domestic-consumption model and get away from an export-driven model. They have a falling population of 16--62 year olds and terrible wages. Needless to say, domestic consumption can't possibly carry them forward. Every time that they try to trim back the growth of the credit bubble, they make a deep cut in the economy.
Reality strikes and they turn up the printing presses another notch.
In Dramatic Reversal, China Gives Up On Deleveraging Pledge | Zero Hedge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-19/with-treasury-sales-about-to-double-mnuchin-s-going-to-pay-up

Keep in mind that the Treasury makes various claims as to who is buying their paper. About 90% of their claims are LIES.

[Danny B]

When the panic starts

The CBs buy every dip so, there are never any honest market signals. Investors are trying to predict the next downturn but, not having much luck. Here are a couple of technical articles that boil down to; there are some indicators but, we aren't really sure.
How the Asset Bubble Could End ? Part 1 |
How the Asset Bubble Could End ? Part 2 |
The CB models assured the bright people at the helm of the printing press ship of State that trickle-up would take over for stimulus after a couple of years. The CBs jumped on the tiger and spoon fed it. The interest load and debt bubble have grown the tiger enormously. The CBs can't jump off the tiger because it is VERY hungry and looking around for more. Fittingly. the Chinese tiger is the largest.

This article has some good graphs on energy price and consumption. The main party of the article is some bogus discussion of the use of coal.
The Depression Of The 1930s Was An Energy Crisis | Zero Hedge
"I consider the Figure 1 (below) to give the most compelling picture on the absurdity we have arrived to. It presents the yield of the US 10 year treasury bond, the yield of Italian 10 year bond and yields of junk bonds of European and US companies as well as the QE:s of the ECB and the Fed. It implies that the default probability of an average European junk-rated company is smaller than that of the US government. This, naturally, is just absurd "
NOT according to Armstrong

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-great-crash-of-2018_us_5a3a2a1de4b0df0de8b060fb

BTC news, https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great...crash-of-2018/

[Danny B]

Fate of the EU,,, dollar moves,,,growing tiger

A couple notes from Armstrong on cooling.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-coldest-winter-20172018/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/the-sun-is-cooling-faster-than-anyone-suspected/

Excellent article on electronic money.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/66-of-the-economy-is-already-electronic-99-of-money-is-electronic/

"Electronic Money. I researched this 3 or four years ago and came up with, .003 physical currency vs the rest as Electronic Money. I later stumbled across an article on the same subject by an economics professor who put the ratio at .0003 physical."

The European Union is / was a BAD system that tried to combine the rise of socialism with the power of the corporatocracy. It is soon do go down in flames. How will this affect the view of the dollar?
"The more political chaos in Europe, the crazier the markets will become in 2018 driving the dollar up until the monetary system cracks wide open."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/are-the-eus-days-numbered/

Keep in mind that; as the dollar rises, dollar-denominated debt will become ever-more difficult to service.

" China has to keep expanding. According to the World Bank, over the next three years, about 35 percent of global GDP growth will come from China, twice as much as the U.S. and four times as much as India. When China sneezes, all developing markets catch a nasty cold."
" Of the more than 870 state entities listed on the mainland, 20 percent require at least 6.6 years of operating profit to pay off their net borrowings."
"In October, Beijing issued its first sovereign dollar bond since 2004."
What will happen to these "dollar bonds" when capital flight raises up the value of the dollar?

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-12-20/china-s-christmas-gift

There is speculation that the CBs will buy crypto currencies. https://dailyreckoning.com/central-b...ptocurrencies/ There is also speculation that CBs will quash private crypto to make way for CB / State controlled crypto.
Armstrong says that the tax cut will be a boon to small business.
Big business says that the tax savings will go straight to the piggy bank.

https://theintercept.com/2017/12/19/tax-bill-corporate-cut-stock-buyback-republican/

American big oil needs at least $50 a bbl. to make any money. Saudi produces for $4. Saudi is in deep financial trouble and trying to sell off a stake in the national oil company. Venezuela has the biggest reserves and, is in deep financial trouble. Iran and Iraq want to sell as much as possible. Discipline will soon break down and oil will fall again. This won't be good for the frackers.

https://dailyreckoning.com/oil-prices-soon-drop-50/

[Danny B]

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/960/0*k1rbe6VyZDWKTjJf.png

This is a very important article. I have been hammering away on the idea that almost all of out problems result from automation.

https://medium.com/basic-income/the-real-story-of-automation-beginning-with-one-simple-chart-8b95f9bad71b

Every time that consumption falls, producers employ more robots to make up for lost margin.
"solutions like unconditionally guaranteeing everyone a basic income as a rightful productivity dividend if people are actively being unemployed by growing productivity and the discussion is framed as a future danger to our social fabric instead of a clear and present danger."
The corporatocracy doesn't care about the social fabric.
"If we look at recent history, each successive downturn has resulted in the permanent shrinkage of the labor market. Peak labor appears to have already occurred back in 2000."