Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Storing gasoline next to the furnace

Making waves in the swamp,

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/democrats-collapsing-with-socialism/

"Of course the majority of the people who voted Democrat fall into three main categories: (1) the people who live on government programs, (2) students who have not gotten a job for a living who think money falls from above, and (3) those who live in the past because their parents were Democrats so they just vote the party line even against their own self-interest as long as it hurts someone else as well."
"All Democrats leaders are polling below Trump. They just live in a state of denial. Obamacare is a disaster, yet they block any reform simply to protect their legacy "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/democrats-their-state-of-denial/

So, both parties are blowing up,,, GOV borrowed $1/2 trillion in 2 weeks,,, the stock market is going to blow to the moon.,,,,GOV will need to act fast AND intelligently when the crisis unfolds.

"A root cause for Congressional ineffectiveness will be found in the simple fact that the exercise of good governmental judgment cannot possibly compete with re-election pressures. "
"Congress has merely been transformed into a school how to be corrupt and get away with it.

Congress has only at best a 31% approval rating against Trump at 41%. Democrats in Congress are at 29%"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/why-is-congress-at-31-trump-at-41-approval-in-the-polls/

When the crash hits, THIS is who will be in the driver's seat.Strange, the EU banks just can't seem to attract investors.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/why-would-anyone-buy-european-bank-stocks/

Draghi wants to stop printing but, at the same time, he drives out capital.

[Danny B]

Not much more room to kick the can

Funny vid on Millennials, Home Depot Panics Over Millennials; Forced To Host Tutorials On Using Tape Measures, Hammering Nails | Zero Hedge
Jim Willie lists 58 recent global shifts. Pretty good article.

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/jim-willie-58-recent-global-shifts-that-are-quickening-the-death-of-king-dollar/

And, how will this epic tale come to an end?

The PPT and the ESF are pumping money like crazy into equities and bonds. They either get it from the FED OR, they just conjure it up on their own.
New debt for old debt;

Crypto;

Slip-sliding away;

He's just being dramatic. Things will get a LOT worse.
News on the millennials, 5 charts highlighting the epic housing crisis for Millennials ? one third of young adults living at home with parents.
Macron wants to cut back on the public sector in France. He has really stirred things up,

https://www.rt.com/news/406318-tear-gas-paris-strike/

[Danny B]

Argentine model,,, pension debt,,,BTC finding a niche

Apparently, the various patriot groups are preparing for the State to mount an assault against them. That isn't a realistic scene. Using Argentina as a model, this is what we can expect. The State can be expected to revalue the currency. The norm is to, cut off 3 zeros and print a new currency. It will also convert the 401ks and other retirement plans to treasury debt. Gov doesn't need to go around robbing people at gun point. It can just steal their accounts. The State needs lots of money to pay State employees (itself).

Look at Illinois.
New Report: Illinois Pension Unfunded Liabilities Worsened By $17 Billion In A Year
"Financial economists say real numbers are 2X or 3X worse. Also, the numbers are mostly over a year old, at least, as explained below."
Things have gotten much worse since then. The shrinkage in the pension fund is $46,575,342 every day. If it is actually 3X worse, that is almost $150 million every day.
New Report: Illinois Pension Unfunded Liabilities Worsened By $17 Billion In A Year – Wirepoints Original | WirePoints Illinois Financial News

"State and local governments are contributing around $100 billion a year to their pension systems. They need to be contributing around three times that amount to keep the liabilities from rising"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4112789-public-pensions-biggest-financial-crisis-since-great-depression

The battles will be fought behind the closed doors of the banks.


"Second, the September employment report came out the Friday before last. A Reuters survey of economists had expected the economy to add 90,000 jobs in September.

How many did it really add?

Not zero, but less than zero. The economy shed 33,000 jobs last month. This was the first time in seven years that the U.S. economy lost jobs."

https://dailyreckoning.com/four-major-catalysts-gold/

AMAZING that they can all ignore the brontosaurus in the room,,,, the 95 million who are not in the labor force.

[Danny B]

had to break it up

Bitcoin has everybody flummoxed.

Bitcoin and a few other crypto currencies will eventually settle in to a small niche. The State will NOT allow very much wealth to flow into a store-of-value that they don't have some control over. The future of the blockchain will be for trading and contracts, not store of value.


Manufacturing is the premier value-added industry. The low-wage producers have put a ceiling on worldwide wages. The newly created liquidity continues to flow into the upper loop where it is just hypothecated into new "wealth" OR, it is pushed OUT of circulation.
Everybody (hopefully) sees the problem but, nobody can raise wages with the downward pressure from automation.
The zillionares have read history books and, they know where this leads.
The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats - POLITICO Magazine

EVERY State wants / needs to keep it's people employed. The number of jobs/workers necessary just keeps falling. No State can afford to raise wages and risk losing market share. Universal Basic Income is proposed as a means to keep consumption from falling more and more. This just can't be done with borrowed money but, the bankers have always resisted debt-free money.

[Danny B]

Setting up the muppets once again,,, Blockchain news

"Nominal global debt is reckoned at between $225 and $250 trillion, or about three times global GDP. Financial, debt-supported derivatives (financial instruments whose prices are derived from the prices of other financial instruments) are estimated at anywhere from $500 trillion to $1 quadrillion notational,"
"Globally, unfunded old age pension and medical liabilities, not counted as debt but still promises made that often have the force of law, sum to another $400 trillion."
"SLL maintains financial markets are exercises in crowd psychology, impervious to government and central bank efforts to control them, designed to separate the maximum number of speculators from a maximum amount of their money."
Side note, "and sell them to gullible, yield-chasing idiots (collecting a transaction fee) while taking the other side of the trade (collecting a huge profit once everything crashes). The instruments, of course, were CDOs, and not long after Goldman sold a whole of them, the financial system crashed and needed a multi-trillion bailout from which the world has not recovered since. "
"Ten years later, Goldman is doing it again, only instead of targeting subprime mortgages, this time the bank has focused on quasi-insolvent European banks.

And just like right before the last financial crash, Goldman is once again allowing its clients to profit from the upcoming collapse, or as Bloomberg puts it, "less than a decade after the last major banking crisis, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering investors a new way to bet on the next one." Goldman Is Allowing Its Clients To Bet On The Next Financial Crisis | Zero HedgeRobert Gore's "Hard Core Doom Porn" | Zero Hedge

Here is a MUST READ article on the blockchain. I suspect that it will make corruption MUCH less prevalent.

https://medium.com/future-crunch/blockchain-is-a-new-model-that-makes-the-existing-model-obsolete-8671ee6dd252

Since EVERYTHING has been hacked, the world can't move forward with the present family of computers. The Quantum computer promises to make the blockchain and many other things much safer.
The Crunch # 37 - quantum computing for the mildly curious

[Danny B]

Trump has met with Henry Kissinger three times this year. Kissinger was responsible for presenting the House of Saud with the ultimatum that created the petro-dollar. Things are coming apart rapidly and the petro-dollar is dying.
"The Petro-Dollar is seeing its last months after a 43-year reign as defacto standard. Its retirement will begin in the East, then spread to the decaying loyal Western nations. The entire geopolitical chessboard is becoming more aligned with the Eurasian Trade Zone, one nation after another. Its cornerstones are Russia, China, and increasingly Iran. It has gathered some Eastern European countries like Turkey, and will gather more. It has pursued the Middle East oil monarchies, and will succeed in lassoing them into the zone corral. Whether they deploy financial connections, or trade ties, or security links, these nations no longer see the United States and British (who walk the American dog with a monetary leash) as the leading global players any longer. The leaders are China with its financial and industrial might and Russia with its energy and commodity strength."

"AUSTRALIA CONTENDS WITH FINANCIAL COLONIZATION
Fifteen years of heavy Chinese investment peaked in mining and port facilities
Australian Govt at edge of financial bankruptcy as result of US-led arms purchases"
"MEXICO FIGHTS BANKRUPTCY
Mexican Govt in talks with Russian Rosneft for a large scale oil deal
Mexico urgently needs funds for managing budget deficits"
Turning Point Nations On The StageThe world was willing to dump their dollars over a period of time to avoid upheaval in the capital markets. They would lose also. The plan was to; only buy from America what could be paid in dollars,,, slowly running down their dollar supply. They no longer need their accumulated dollars if the East will take other currencies for oil. America started beating the war drums and persecuting Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and other States that tried to escape the dollar corral. WE have pushed forward the timeline for dumping dollars. Tel Aviv on the Potomac stupidly tried to threaten all these States. This is a blatantly stupid move but, Netanyahoooo is desperate. He regularly goes to Moscow to suck up to Putin,,,, at the SAME time that his ISIS mercenaries are fighting Russians in Syria.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/oil-for-gold-the-real-story?gmrefcode=dollarc

Pox Americana and NATO surrounded Russia with Missile bases to threaten them into inaction and strangle them economically. They also tried to cut off Russia from the main port in Sevastopol and their port of Tartus in Syria. The Ukrainians paid a very heavy price for the attempt to keep Russia from Sevastopol.
The strangulation attempt in Syria is not working out. The Syrians know very well that they are fighting for survival. The U.S. is winding down in Syria. The oil in the Golan Heights will eventually be the center of a big fight.

The East is going to focus, to a great degree, on gold. The Germans are buying gold.

There is a possibility that pox Americana could flood the world markets with artificial gold made by transmutation. John Bedini talked about transmutation of gold in the video, "Petrovoltaics".
If that does not happen, we can expect a world gold standard for NETTING OUT trade. The blockchain is just too good,,, too useful, TOO HONEST to ignore. Pox Americana will have to either; pay with gold OR export everything that is not nailed down.
It's going to be very interesting

[Danny B]

"The most obvious course, and the one likely to be implemented, is a maxi-devaluation of the yuan to around the 7.95 level or lower."

https://dailyreckoning.com/prepare-chinese-maxi-devaluation/

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/m...XEO3gfDjX8DRAg

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/king-dollar-is-dead-biggest-paradigm-shift-in-100-years-china-and-electric-cars-at-forefront-rT03lKEJskSvJMLl7rpJzQ

maxi-devaluation of the yuan to around the 7.95 level or lower.

This would stop capital outflows because those outflows are driven by devaluation fears. Once the devaluation happens, there is no longer any urgency about getting money out of China.
The markets in the West and Australia are surviving on capital outflows from China. Take that away and see what happens.

[Danny B]

One more thing that will eventually unwind

Kass Warns: "The Probability Of A Flash Crash Grows Exponentially"
"investors understand that there is nothing normal in the current environment of unprecedented financialization and economic disruption. The deadweight of US$400 trillion 'cloud' of financial instruments (backing into assets that are either worthless or are declining in value) must be supported by ongoing financialization."
"Thus, risks facing investors are that either CBs and/or China misjudge extent to which reflation is dependent on inflating asset values and China's fixed investment.
If the market is underpricing the uncertainty with respect to the outlook of US monetary policy, we are even more concerned that it seems totally impervious to the risk of two potentially disruptive, if not dangerous, Games of Chicken likely to unfold in the summer and the beginning of the fall...." Imagine Trump and Xi playing a game of chicken.
Kass Warns: "The Probability Of A Flash Crash Grows Exponentially" | Zero Hedge

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/SP500-ShareBuybacks-ReportedEPS-101217.png

"The difference between reported earnings with and without the benefit of share repurchases is substantial. The chart below shows the net difference" http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...cks-101217.png

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/weekend-reading-7-trillion-to-manipulate-prices/

[Danny B]

https://bata.io/The Blockchain and how it will change your life - Barter and Trade Blog Article By Troc Zen

[Danny B]

Draghi bailouts, oil profitability crash

China is the largest oil importer and Russia is the largest oil exporter. The Chinese central bank has opened an office in Moscow AND the Russian central bank has opened an office in Beijing. It's a safe assumption that they will NOT be pricing oil in U.S. dollars.
China Launches Yuan-Ruble Payment System | Zero Hedge

There was a huge amount of hype in the blogosphere about the gold-oil linked contracts created by China. Only problem is; they don't exist.

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/the-gold-backed-oil-yuan-futures-contract-myth/

https://etfdailynews.com/2017/10/14/inside-europes-impending-bond-crisis-vgk/

"Decimate", a Roman strategy of killing one out of every ten persons. Very often used when the proper word for the situation is "annihilate"Imagine what the markets would do if the oil majors cancelled their dividends.Brazil,,, a chief member of the BRICs
It is a State-owned company so, it is mismanaged to the MAX
Petrobras Annual Dividend Payments:

2008 = $4.7 billion
2009 = $7.7 billion
2010 = $5.4 billion
2011 = $6.4 billion
2012 = $3.3 billion
2013 = $2.6 billion
2014 = $3.9 billion
2015 = ZERO
2016 = ZERO

"Even with a $5 increase in the price of oil last year compared to 2004, these oil companies combined net income profit fell nearly 90%."
"In 2004, these seven oil companies enjoyed a net Free Cash Flow minus dividends of a positive $34 billion versus a negative $39.1 billion in 2016:"

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/srsrocco-the-bankruptcy-of-this-will-be-the-death-knell-of-the-world-economy/

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/taxes-the-lynch-pin-of-civilization/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-political-turf-war-in-europe-and-why-britain-is-considering-joining-nafta/

"Criticism of the reform comes from trade unions and left parties who cannot see the opposite side of the table. They say Macron has taken an entrepreneur-friendly policy and is dismantling the welfare state. This is what the strikes are all about. Once again, we are looking at the demise of socialism. Do not forget, Communism began in France and it was sold to Marx as a great idea. "
Armstrong is also guilty of "not seeing the other side of the table". Automation and low-wage competition has made it impossible to earn a living wage for MANY people. This isn't so much a crash of socialism as it is a widespread crash in employment. That equates to a crash in SURVIVAL.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/france/over-5-million-government-employees-strike-against-fall-of-socialism/

[Danny B]

Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2017 / 2016 , Bankruptcy, Store closings, Business Economy News

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/10/globalization-is-poverty/

Side note, Poland Says No Thanks To $9.2bn Credit Line From IMF
How The Elite Dominate The World ? Part 1: Debt As A Tool Of Enslavement | Zero Hedge

The world really has no way to compensate for the loss of employment. Italy has come up with the idea of raising youth employment by creating a pension crisis, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ension-crisis/

Armstrong, "ANSWER: This is a battle to the death. A cryptocurrency is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange using cryptography to secure the transactions and to control the creation of additional units of the currency. However, this idea has also falsely embraced the notion that a cryptocurrency will be a store of value "
"The rise of cryptocurrency is a reflection that people do not trust the government. Those in power know that and see this as unacceptable. "
"They have unlinked shielded coins from their history on the blockchain. This means they can be used for tax avoidance and the government can use its Terrorist Card. They will not allow cryptocurrency to defeat taxes and BitCoin is not secure enough in that manner."

"There is absolutely no question that we are heading into a new Monetary System. The Monetary Crisis Cycle turns up next year. We saw what happened as soon as the ECM peaked in 2007 and we forecast new highs in the Dow back in 2010 (See Barrons), the War Cycle turned up in 2014 and our Political Cycle that pinpointed the political change in 2016 produced Trump, the ECM peak in 2015.75 "
"We will issue a special report on the coming One World Currency. There is just too much to address in a blog post"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/products/the-coming-one-world-currency-2/

The East wants to do LOTS of trade but, few people have enough income to support any kind of luxury system. They want to grow trade enormously and net out the difference in gold. The West wants to use the SDR or some kind of State cryptocurrency. The East has had quite enough of our wars and our DU everywhere.

The Bank for International Settlements transacts ONLY in gold bullion between sovereigns. This will probably be the new model for the East. Only, the B.I.S. won't get a piece of the action. The Eastern alternatives to the IMF and BIS will do the debt reconciliation. Armstrong talks about a new monetary system but, won't mention gold. Traders hate gold because it leaves them out,,, for the most part.
China knows that they will crash. They have the fastest growing debt and the fastest shrinking labor force. Their foreign markets are drying up as they have gone broke from Chinese competition. Try as they might, they can't spur domestic consumption when wages average $ 30 a month.

Pox Americana (NEOCONS) have given the world cause to unite against us and join up with China. Even Germany is pushing hard to join up with Russia.

[Danny B]

Take your choice; money or people

One of the centerpieces of globalization is cross border capital flows. The idea sounded good in theory. BUT, only to short-sighted people in the upper loop. Great Depression I was blamed, in part, on the pools of "dark liquidity" that flowed into and out of different asset classes. We now have much larger pools that can move much farther and faster. Globalization depends on unhindered flows. Since banks no longer have to depend on the money in savings accounts to fund loans, they have even less connection to the lower loop. As we get more broke, they just extend our credit terms. The debt-service cost eventually reaches a point of diminishing returns and borrowing stops. ZIRP doesn't trickle down all that much.

The pools of capital naturally flow to where they get the best return (in the short term).
"Europe suffers from extremely high taxes, taxes and social security contributions combined, which account for around 50% of the business cost which has produced nothing but higher levels of unemployment. In the US and Asia, the comparative rates are between 30% and 40%. Europe just cannot compete in the world economy and is slowly dying."

"Macron still fails to see that higher taxes produce lower economic growth. Until politicians wake up and see themselves are the source of the problem, there is little hope in producing meaningful economic reform anywhere in the world.After all EU countries suffer from financial distress, the plan can only lead to even more taxes being collected and not less."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europes-economic-death-spiral/

"The core problem is never addressed. All of these proposals on how to end the European economic paralysis simply never consider the role of government and its leftist Marxism that failed in China and Russia."
"The high tax burden prevents a dynamic renewal of the economy reducing the standard of living for everyone and perpetuating high unemployment as twice that of the rest of the industrialized world."

Armstrong fails to mention that capital will never flow back to a high-wage economy. Even if the tax burden were lessened, the cost of business would be much higher than the East. The CBs are trying to hold back deflation when the youth unemployment runs as high as 60%. The ECB tries to make up for everybody's lost wages / earning power.
An economy needs people. The bankers are focused on capital, margin and interest. They have no interest in helping people. They abhor debt-free money and lament the lack of children. 20% Of Americans are immigrants. We poach warm bodies from wherever we can just to keep the population from shrinking.
As wages slip away, the money powers will have to eventually make a decision between debt-free money and people.
Kuroda of Japan is leading the way at creating debt-free money.
51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. Armstrong predicts that GOV finances will fail. Which road will it take?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/the-gdp-decline-post-2015-75/

[Danny B]

If our nation can issue a dollar bond, it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good, makes the bill good also. Thomas Edison. Both Ben Franklin and Adolph Hitler issued money to the producing sector of the economy. Both got a war for their presumptuousness.
"There is no end in sight with the BOJ buying $60 billion a month of government debt. At this current pace the modern BOJ will by 2019 be the proud owner of 60% of the local bond market. There is no longer a market price for a Japanese Government Bond, it is an asset whose price is set by the BOJ."
Just print the money and screw the bonds and the banks.
"Central banks continue to act as the enablers to their respective governments." Governments YES,,, productive sector, NO.
"Central banks are currently furnishing the excess credit that, in the past, has been followed by an orgy of blood."
The Treasury can NOT emit currency,,, no way, Jose.
One Bank's Shocking Warning: Central Banks Will Lead To "An Orgy Of Blood" | Zero Hedge

The ECB is printing $trillions in bonds. They wouldn't dream of printing Euros. The ECB Has Bought ?1.9 Trillion In Bonds: Here Is Who Sold And What They Did With The Money | Zero Hedge

The CBs print up free money and use it to buy stocks, Advancing Time: Central Banks Massive Incursion Into Buying Stocks
C.H. Smith believes that they are trying to nationalize the stock markets, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Endgame of Financialization: Stealth Nationalization

http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/st319.pdf

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/nonlinear-complexity-too-much-for-most-people-to-comprehend/

Armstrong's model is a confidence model. His program, Socrates, removes much of the randomness of markets. Eventually, AI, will delineate smaller and smaller moves in markets. It will eventually reach a point to where it will "red flag" inflationary movements by the State.