Economic pressures

[Danny B]

credit freeze

The debt bubble has suffered a sudden inflation. "Fed Quietly Revises Total US Debt From 330% To 350% Of GDP, After "Discovering" Another $2.7 Trillion In Debt" Fed Quietly Revises Total US Debt From 330% To 350% Of GDP, After "Discovering" Another $2.7 Trillion In Debt | Zero Hedge

https://www.intellihub.com/why-are-the-imf-the-un-the-bis-and-citibank-all-warning-that-an-economic-crisis-could-be-imminent/

With debt at 350% of GDP, it is easy to imagine a credit freeze. There are only 3 companies in America that are rated AAA for credit. The wave of defaults is supposed to circle the globe in just a few hours.
Leave out $1 quadrillion in derivatives. Leave out $ trillions in hedges. Just focus on simple loan exposure.
How many primary producers will ship products to distributors who may or may not be credit-worthy? How many producers will ship to GOV agencies when GOV debt collapses? There is a $ 50 trillion a year turnover in commerce in America. People will panic in a credit freeze. They will rush to the banks. Banks will close and / or limit withdrawals. What happens to big-ticket spending?
Most truckers use credit for fuel. What will they do in a credit freeze? How will I get my fried chicken and Ding Dongs when I'm in camp FEMA?

[wayne.ct]

Related current developments

I hope my friends here have the time to watch this. It is about 45 minutes long. For me, at least, that approaches the limit as to how much time I am willing to spend on any single video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0

I put this here in this thread because I think it is relevant to the discussion here. I hope you all find it interesting.

[Danny B]

Group of 30 global central banks admit QE failed and did nothing for economies ~ The Daily Economist
Jim Willie reported that the FED was rescuing fraudulent U.S. Treasury bonds by the billions. He reported that the FED was rescuing failing hedges and derivatives by the $ trillions. Here is the link that shows it to be true. A Liquidity Crisis Hit The Banking System In September | Investment Research Dynamics
The FED is trying to keep the dominoes from falling. Imagine a hand grenade going off in a giant parking lot full of dominoes. Bankers bought GOV to ensure that they didn't suffer any losses or reversals on their "investments". By blocking small losses, they have welded shut the over-pressure valves.

[Danny B]

Salary and poverty

Here are a couple of interesting article on poverty, happiness and salary.
New Findings From War on Poverty: Just Give Cash - Bloomberg View
Nobel Economist Showed We're Helping the Wrong People - Bloomberg View
Raise taxes,,, impose austerity,,,, create revolution. Austerity vs. Hyperinflation: Which Is the Precursor to Revolution? | Armstrong Economics
There is an ever-greater appreciation that automation is making full employment impossible. The whole world is creeping towards socialism as the solution. The first step is to print money to bring everyone's standard of living up a bit. Smith expects this helicopter money to first appear in the student loan crisis. oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Where Is the First Helicopter Drop of Money Likely to Land?
Tyler Durden sees this as the start of eliminating capital. The Endgame Takes Shape: "Banning Capitalism And Bypassing Capital Markets" | Zero Hedge
ALL GOV is parasitic and loves Keynes. Keynes advocated getting rid of the whole idea of living off your accumulated capital. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...-rentier/?_r=0
Socialism demands a planned economy and they don't have a good track record. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38764.html
The world economy can produce enough for everybody BUT, there are problems. http://peterjoseph.info/economics-sp...n-los-angeles/

Considering overall pollution, especially the oceans, it might be better if there were fewer people. http://themostimportantnews.com/arch...ipe-us-all-out
Socialism is just a distribution system with no particular plan for productivity. Capitalism wants everybody to work for what the receive. This is no longer possible and the world is searching for some kind of workable middle ground.

[Danny B]

The Ugly Truth About Poverty In Britain | Soren DreierWelcome to the Recovery ? Homelessness Amongst Students Doubles Since Before the Recession | The Daily SheepleGoldman Sachs: The Third Wave of the Financial Crisis Is upon Us | The Daily Sheeple
Mankind successfully made the transition from hunter-gatherer to agrarian. He is in the process of making the transition from an agrarian economy to an industrial economy. The hyper-efficiency of the computer-controlled industrial economy is causing havoc in employment. Historically, consumptive ability and remuneration were tied to productive work. We have hyper-productivity but, falling demand for workers. There isn't a workable solution any where near on the horizon.

[Danny B]

Raising cash when loans go bad.

Fracking in America is crashing and bringing down hedges and derivatives. The FED is printing $ trillions to keep them from defaulting. Alberta tar sands are crashing also. Everything is for sale to try to raise cash to avoid default. Oil Slide Means ‘Almost Everything’ for Sale as Deals Accelerate - Bloomberg Business
The tech sector is crashing and knocking a big hole in confidence. The Death Of Hopium | Peak Prosperity
It was recently reported that half of Chinese companies could not pay interest on their debts,,, forget about principle. Not surprisingly, it has just been reported that 10% of loans are non-performing. Just the same, everybody is acting surprised. CLSA Just Stumbled On The Neutron Bomb In China's Banking System | Zero Hedge
Much of the world was counting on Chinese prosperity to drag along the others who floundered. NOT today. The steel industry in China is expected to crash very soon,,, following the coal industry
Investors are excited at the prospect of huge rent increases. Mish Shedlock Blog | Hooray! Huge Rent Hikes Coming; How Will It Affect Price Inflation? | Talkmarkets

[Danny B]

15 years includes the 2008 crash.Yup, what Wal Mart did to small retailers is now happening to them from Amazon.He says that GOV will print up tons of money for infrastructure projects.Nicole Foss Podcast: The Age of Limits - The Automatic Earth
The debt ceiling is back in the news,,, though it isn't new. US May Not Be Able to Pay Country's Bills After November 3 - White House

An article on economics where Greenspan admits where he went wrong. Don’t let the Nobel prize fool you. Economics is not a science | Joris Luyendijk | Comment is free | The GuardianSo, the corporations have no brain and no heart and no liability. The workers have NO security. What could go wrong?
If you want to retire, you are out of luck. Why You Should Care About the Retirement Crisis, Even If You’re in Your 20s

[Danny B]

Darryl Robert Schoon... Charles Hugh Smith

Darryl Robert Schoon is an "old school" kind of guy. He has a recent, EXCELLENT article that should be thoroughly understood. Oct 15, 2015 China, The Great Depressions 1 & 2, and Gold Darryl Robert Schoon 321gold ...inc ...sOf Two Minds - Here's Why Housing Must be Propped Up
OK. So, incomes have collapsed but, we can't let housing values collapse.

[Danny B]

Blockchain

Pando,
"Almost everyone involved in developing TOR was (or is) funded by the US government" Bitcoin is TOR based. Can't say that I trust anything that the state is involved in. BUT, there is a company that is making huge changes and improvements in the "Blockchain". It looks very interesting and may even squeeze out the banks. https://thefranklinsociety.com/crypto-3/
India wandered around until they found a cliff to jump off of. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...orts-plunge-25

Most of the action is taking place in Syria and Iraq. Putin is blowing up ISIS. Obummer is re-supplying them. Once it becomes obvious that America can NOT make Putin back down, there are a lot of States that will desert Pox Americana. At the moment, there are many entities, public and private who are carrying a LOT of dollar-denominated debt. They desperately need dollars. Only the FED can supply dollars.
10% of Chinese loans are non-performing. It is easy to imagine a wave of defaults. Once the defaults start, the holders of dollar-debt may be the first to jump ship. America has been out-maneuvered and may not be able to threaten States who just default.

[Danny B]

Non-linear feedback loops... dumping dollars

Dumping dollars; Foreign Governments Sell Record Amount of U.S. Notes, Bonds - Bloomberg Business

The Dollar Will Die with a Whimper, Not a Bang This is what happens when you lose Reserve Currency status, "In other words, during the 255 years of the index, prices increased by 200% in the first 185 years while the sterling was the lead reserve currency, but went up 5,000% in the 70 years that followed."
In spite of all the financial history to guide us, the Central bankers are dumb founded at the current state of affairs. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...-series-crises

Non-linear feed backs; "Shadow convexity reinforces the dominant trend in a hidden non-linear way and effects all participants. The ultimate non-market example of shadow short convexity is the failure of communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Following decades of oppression, the wall literally and psychologically fell when crowds of East Germans gathered at checkpoints and border guards refused to use mass violence to suppress them. The wall collapsed organically and without violence after the suppressed desire for freedom became a self-reinforcing force of change that could no longer be denied.

The ultimate market example of shadow convexity is the role of portfolio insurance in the 1987 Black Monday crash. The portfolio insurance strategy relied upon selling increasing amounts of financial futures to protect against drawdowns in equity markets. The greater the decline in the market the more financial futures were sold to offset the loss contributing to a non-linear feedback loop and causing a -20% single day decline in the S&P 500 index. "
"Shadow" Short Convexity: If You Short 'Fear', Be Prepared For 'Horror' | Zero Hedge
There is a huge demand for dollars to service dollar-denominated debt. This makes the dollar stronger and hurts U.S. exports. "Its Not The Economy Stupid, It's The Dollar" | Zero Hedge
51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. Do you think that they want reform. This, in turn, has created a huge dependency. We have GOV. We don't need to save for the future.
#11 Almost half of all Americans (47 percent) do not put a single penny out of their paychecks into savings.
we don't need stability. GOV will take care of us.We don't need to work today. The kids will pay our debts.
#36 On average, we have been stealing more than 100 million dollars from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day since Barack Obama entered the White House.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/america-1-36-facts-that-prove-that-the-united-states-is-an-exceptional-nation

[Danny B]

Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault" | Zero Hedge
"The Gold taken out of Iraq by the US Forces, was in fact 10,000 MT of
Gold that Iraq stole from the Central Bank of Kuwait"
"In respect of the Gold deposited in vaults under the World Trade
Centre. Yes this story is true. The World Trade Centre was a small
depository compared to many others in the US. During the late evening
(9/10) and early morning (9/11) of that day of disaster, several
Military trucks complete with armed special forces were utilized to
remove the 170 MT of Gold from under the World Trade Centre."
WhistleBlower Answers about the Gold Stolen in Iraq and on 911
"He also tells us that US bankers won't be able to steal Syria's gold as the Russian military is now guarding it." Jim Willie: Theres Nowhere Left To Hide - Sinister Social Weapon Being Used Against Europe With America Now In The Crosshairs
"Mali is one of the world's largest gold producers. Together with neighboring Ghana they account for 7-8% of world gold output. That makes them a rich prize for nations desperate for real physical gold. So, even as Germany started demanding their gold back from the Bank of France and the New York Federal Reserve, France (aided by the US) decided to invade Mali to fight "Islamists" working for "Al Qaeda."

Read more: whatreallyhappened.com ROBBING PETER MALI TO PAY PAUL GERMANY | WHAT REALLY HAPPENEDThe Real Reasons that Germany Is Demanding that the U.S. Return Its Gold Washington's Blog
Gold has always been stolen; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...eists-all-time
Jim claims that the Chinese are going to reprice gold, http://sgtreport.com/2015/10/jim-wil...ng-gold-price/
Then, there is silver. It seems to be in short supply.

It's obvious that gold has a very high value for a large number of people. Martin Armstrong never misses an opportunity to disparage a gold standard. http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38069
The gold standard has proved to be very good to consumers and very bad for speculators. He is a speculator. Any State that was on the gold standard has had to go OFF whenever they wanted to start a war.
A gold standard can be different things in different places. Private citizens in India hold 20,000 tons of gold. This is a de-facto repudiation of the Rupee as a store-of-value. Central bankers are buying as much gold as they can and dumping fiat currency and bonds. Big, Bad, Bald, Ben Shalom Bernanke said that gold is not money and that the Treasury only holds gold out of "tradition".
Paper money and gold both respond to supply-and-demand. A healthy economy must have a free market where supply and demand signal prices.

Headlines;
Ron Paul Gold Standard is an Impossible Dream - Mic
Why We're Not Returning to a Gold Standard - CBS News
Steve Forbes: We Will Return to Gold Standard

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-12/will-currency-wars-end-return-gold-standard

[Ruphus]

2% investment growth

So I am now on a board that is gets first hand knowledge of my organization's finances. We had the financial adviser give a presentation that he and the chairman have set a goal of a net 2-2.5% growth in investments. He manages to get the targeted growth on investments to make everyone happy. I couldn't help myself and had to ask what his costs were to manage the funds. Just 1% he said. So I asked is we were grossing 3.6% in which he replied yes, and that the organization didn't really have any need to touch the funds but everything was liquid in case we needed them immediately, which we never will. So then I argued with him about how I could get 2% out of a 10 year that wouldn't cost anything to manage and how a 1% fee was extremely high for such a weak return on investments. He didn't like that, but in a side conversation admitted I was correct. and that 5-6% was hard to do.

[Danny B]

- inflation

Ruphus, don't forget to subtract inflation. Alternate Inflation Charts

[Danny B]

The death of the unipower and the downside of globalism

Armstrong said that the economic confidence model showed a DRASTIC change on 2015.75.
Paul Craig Roberts, "President Putin of Russia brought all that to end on September 28. He stood up before the world in the presence of the overflowing hubris of the hegemon and belled the cat. "
The scary thing about Armstrong's predictions is that they usually come true within a 3 day window. BBC NEWS | South Asia | US 'threatened to bomb' Pakistan "
Two days later he took over the war in Syria 2 days later is EXACTLY 2015.75

I celebrate for the rest of the world. Hopefully, the murderous scum from Tel Aviv, London , NYC and D.C. will be neutralized. UNFORTUNATELY, Armstrong also said that we are entering the "war cycle".

These scum have a long history of dragging down all of mankind. "And it was decided that in order to maximize profits government officials would have to be bribed to make Opiates illegal, while paying off the government agency heads and key police to look the other way, with periodic arrests of anyone attempting to compete independently." The Pentagon’s Biggest dirty secret ? | Veterans Today
It was just announced that America the beautiful would stay in Afghanistan for many more years. Poppies are very delicate and need lots of protection.
The State works hard to find things to make illegal so that prices are forced up. The State runs the drugs and, profits more when prices are higher. In the '30, pot was made illegal because it was too easy to grow. Good alcohol was more difficult to produce and was a better candidate to tax. Pot is now a emerging candidate for taxing. It is also a BIG money maker for health.
Patent No. 6630507, held by the United States Department of Health and Human Services, covers the use of cannabinoids for treating a wide range of diseases. Follow the money. There Are Now 100 Scientific Studies That Prove Cannabis Cures Cancer
The State taxes tobacco to get us to quit. Why do they tax e-cigarettes?

In other news, there is a newly-found huge deposit of oil in the Golan Heights. The Golan Heights is part of Syria by international law but israel refuses to recognise this. The newly re-energised Syrian Army just moved into the Golan heights. Farsnews

The PTB forced globalism not fully appreciating what the outcome would be. A global-mean wage with downward pressure from automation precludes a rich consumer economy. All these contested trade agreements are the blowback. With the consumer unemployed or earning just minimum wage, there is no support for high consumer spending. The trade agreements are an attempt to squeeze out profits from under-employed people. They are fascist agreements between the State and industry,,, the corporatocracy.
Globalism means that the lowest-wage labor market gets the job. Globalism means that the lowest-cost producer of oil gets the sales. That is Iran and Saudi. We have robbed and pissed off Saudi. They have just had a "palace coup" and are very unstable. They are not in a good position domestically and could easily fall to internal strife. They stupidly got involved in a war with Yemen. So, Iran, and then Russia are the remaining low-cost producers. Venezuela has more oil than Saudi but, socialism has crippled their industry.
Globalism pushes trade to the lowest cost supplier for labor, commodities and capital. This reduces trade for all others. ZIRP is an attempt to supply low-cost capital. NOT good enough when you have high-cost labor. Europe is getting a painful lesson in this.
After the dust settles from the credit blowup, it will be discovered that there is no consumer economy at slave wages. The various trade agreements will all founder if the consumer can't consume. You can't realistically advance credit to workers who earn subsistence wages. You can't tax them either.

Neither globalism, nor socialism can supply employment for the unqualified. This is the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKPFC8DA9_8

[Danny B]

Paul Shirley To Haiti: Go Help Yourself (UPDATE)