Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Scarce dollars,,, fighting deflation with MORE credit

The Western CBs pumped "money" into the upper loop. Venezuela pumped "money" into the lower loop.
Venezuela’s Currency Just Had the Biggest Monthly Collapse Ever - Bloombergstart of 2015So, as the Chinese devalue the Yuan, dollars get harder to find.Dollar Shortage Goes Mainstream: When Will The Fed Confess? | Zero Hedge

"One week after the BIS issued an unexpectedly stern, if completely ignored warning, that the surge in the USD is leading to an abrupt tightening in financial conditions around the globe, making the repayment of trillions in USD-denominated cross-border debt increasingly more difficult and suggesting that the Dollar index itself is the new "fear indicator",
OK, so everybody flees to the dollar and it becomes very scarce.ECB Warns There Is "Significant Risk Of Abrupt Market Reversal" | Zero Hedge
The European banks are toast.

By about 1970, the R.O.W. had rebuilt it's manufacturing base and our wages went way down. With the closure of the gold window, our money became untethered at ALL levels. This promised to bring high deflation. The whole problem was papered over with increased credit. The credit was counted along side the cash when they figured the money supply. Deflation was still lurking in the shadows. When they perfected containerized shipping, this brought us a second wage shock. Deflation is gaining ground. With every increased threat of deflation, they pump in more credit to be counted as part of the money supply. When GOV prints money, they count it as part of the GDP. When they spend the same money, they count it again. Even though the dollar is a debt note, it has more moneyness than credit. They fight deflation with ever-increasing amounts of credit. A cascade of default would leave us with a money supply MINUS the credit segment.

We've had wage deflation for about 40 years. This was offset by credit inflation. They run the presses faster and faster to hold back the defaults. Our debt is reckoned at $42.5 K per person. Infographic: How Much Government Debt Rests Upon Your Shoulders?
I imagine that the debt per working person is quite a bit higher.
Our debt is increasing at $ 6.4 billion a day,, double from a year ago. What happens to the banks when NPLs just keep climbing?


Armstrong was right. GOV will tax and confiscate without limit.
China can keep market sector by cheapening the Yuan BUT, then, nobody wants to hold it. This increases dollar demand. (Gresham's Law)
The Chinese convert their profits into gold or dollars and then,,, there are no unlocked dollars in the system to service dollar debt.

[Danny B]

Trump has pissed them off quite a bit with his protectionist talk.This Is Where I Get Off | Jeff Thomas | Safehaven.com

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/capital-flight-from-italy-by-carmen-reinhart-2016-11

That makes sense,,, they take 60% of your money to fight corruption. I'm sure that it makes sense to armies of bureaucrats looking for the next buck.
Utilities sell power. They feel no particular compunction to buy oil if they don't have to. This won't make the banks and oil companies very happy. Originally, 1905---1956,,, Seattle got it's energy from a gasifier plant. Gasworks History

[Danny B]

Disequilibrium , reserve curency , sucker's rally

Mother Nature has always provided us with some children who would not be able to compete in the free-market for labor. They became wards of the family or wards of the State. There was always a "float" of people who were consumers but, not producers. Steve Keen writes about disequilibrium economics.
Text; http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2...rium-economic/
Vid; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wb7Tmk2OABo

As more and more people fail to find a niche in the labor market, this disequilibrium increases. The most qualified person gets the job. The most qualified person is increasingly, a machine. One segment of the disequilibrium is the increasing chasm between world productive capacity and world consumptive power. The lack of consumptive ability was "papered over" by increasing our access to credit. (the ability to spend tomorrow's wages,,, today). Destructive wars were used to augment consumption. BUT, they were done on credit,,, the bills come due eventually.
The lack of employment and consumptive power is only going to get worse and there is NO remedy. https://aeon.co/essays/what-if-jobs-...ut-the-problemCredit Bubble Bulletin: Weekly Commentary: Revisiting the Global Savings Glut Thesis

"I see a recession coming down the pike in 2017. The stock market is going to go down and it's going to stay down long and hard because, for the first time in 25 years, there's nothing to bail it out."
"My call stands. Sell the stocks, sell the bonds, get out of the casino," Stockman explained to CNBC in an off-camera interview. "Bonds have already cratered by nearly $2 trillion worldwide and have miles to go. This isn't a rotation into stocks, either. It's the greatest sucker's rally ever."
"On the contrary, Stockman, who initially predicted that Trump would win the election, added that Washington will be in chaos by June. "
"So when the recession hits this summer, the Fed will be out of dry powder and fiscal policy will be paralysed," concluded Stockman. "This time the market will crash and stay crashed."
David Stockman doubles down on his sell everything call


So, we have "death spirals" to go along with "time bombs".
There is a slowly growing awareness that issuing money and earning money can not continue on as they did historically. The bankers certainly don't want helicopter money. They load us up with $ trillions more in bond debt, figuring that we will pay it off in the future. TPP and other trade agreements were schemes to increase the profit margins by lowering our wages. Did it never occur to them that lowering our wages would result in lower economic activity?

Labor's share of the profit pie was collapsed by Finance's claim to the money. Finance is starting to worry that all the mountains of debt instruments may not be paid back. As long as any State is able to manipulate it's currency, equilibrium will not return. The Bretton Woods agreement depended on the honesty and morality of politicians. Nixon just happened to be at the helm when the ship of State ran on to a reef. Gold has been the only antidote to crooked politicians.

[Danny B]

Implosions, time bombs and death spirals,,, oh my

The PTB are a cozy little club that has screwed us very well. In a very dynamic world, they are trying to maintain the status quo. You can see that the upper caste has done VERY well for themselves in the last few years. http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2016...ality3-16a.jpg
BUT, the natives are getting very restless AND hungry. The PTB respond by militarising the police and cranking up the din of propaganda.
Of Two Minds - The Washington Post: Useful-Idiot Shills for a Failed, Frantic Status Quo That Has Lost Control of the Narrative

Well, it is called red China

Yes, their wealth is reckoned on how many debt notes they hold.
That will continue to drag down the banks.
Is this another death spiral?

He's already had one assassination attempt.
The bankers have always complained that the people of India are "underbanked" . They hold their money and gold to themselves. Most loans are private affairs.
It broke down because GOV pulled 86% of the cash out of circulation.
The ECB is run by feces-for-brains technocrats. Even sterling looks better than the Euro.

[Danny B]

The Hyperinflationary Endgame: Venezuela Currency Crashes 15% In One Day | Zero Hedge

Greece is bending the Greeks over backwards to pay bond coupons. The ECB just keeps loading them up with more and more debt. But, even that isn't enough.
"The illegal economy in Greece is estimated at some 40 billion euros every year, with state coffers losing out on tax revenues of around 15 billion euros per annum."
So, the bankers extract another $15 billion from the economy. BUT, the ECB and the Euro are out of bullets.
Banks call for taxing cash withdrawals | Business | ekathimerini.com



"In other words, as we warned all along, all QE does is kick the ball into the ECB's court, while giving lazy, incompetent politicians the justification to do, well, nothing - certainly nothing that may threaten their careers - and simply watch as the stock market rises, giving the false impression that "things are good."
Well, things are fine for the politicians; https://sputniknews.com/europe/20161...ion-pay-bonus/
He means,,, over sooner.

3 decades of inflated bond prices and now ! they sound the alarm.

[Danny B]

Jim Willie

"The banker cabal believed that the interconnectivity within their bank structures would make them all immune to failure risk. The reality is that the failure of any one major bank guarantees the systemic breakdown of all of them."
"When the collapse occurs, the solution will finally be discussed, the solution avoided for eight full years. THE GOLD STANDARD WILL BE INSTALLED. It will first arrive in the trade payment system."

We import 1/2 $ trillion more a year than we export. We pay for it with confetti and the R.O.W is bringing this to an end. Japan is the last major holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. A gold standard trade settlement means that we have to pay for things with the gold in Ft. Knox.

Deutsche bank, "The giant German bank has a net worth of around minus $1000 billion, or minus EUR 1000 billion"
"The other shoe from those American feet is the end of the USDollar as global currency reserve. When the rejection is more broadly understood and openly discussed, the Western banks go poof and the USDollar dies."
"The Gold Trade Notes for trade payment might be coming into view, initially with commodity transfers, later swap contracts, and finally gold-backed short-term notes which supplant the USTBill. "
"In time, expect an eventual refusal by Eastern producing nations to accept USTreasury Bills in payment for trade. "
Criss-Crossed Fuses And Lit Bonfire
In a general sense, this means that our imports will stop.

An interesting prophecy Amazing Prophecy From 1981 Says U.S. Economy Will Collapse After Death Of Fidel Castro | The Daily Sheeple

[Danny B]

Welcome To The Currency War, Part 23: Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve - DollarCollapse.com

OZ is starting up a new campaign; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...h-withdrawals/

[Danny B]

Some of the elites are worried,,, About time!

The Economist and The Financial TimesThe FT Asks "Is This The Elites' "Marie Antoinette" Moment?" | Zero Hedge

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zekqolVk4K4&t=167s

Why pick on China? Our debt is $ 20 trillion with $ 212 trillion of unfunded liabilities.
All their actuarial tables are based on 7-8% return. Their actual return before inflation is about .5%
Maybe we shouldn't have threatened the big oil producers, Iran and Russia.

Negative interest rates and who got screwed, https://mishtalk.com/2016/11/29/deca...who-benefited/

[Danny B]

Auto loans,, an extra $trillion for killary,,stress tests

Nothing of much import to report at the moment. This is from 2014; Car Repos Soar 70% As Auto Subprime Bubble Pops; "It's Contained" Promises Fed | Zero Hedge
2016, "Total household debt rose $63 billion in the quarter to $12.35 trillion, driven by a $32 billion increase in auto loans, which also hit a record high of $1.14 trillion. 3.6% of auto loans were 90 or more days delinquent."
" The chart below disaggregates the $1.135 trillion of outstanding auto loans by credit score and lender type, and we see that 75 percent of the outstanding subprime loans were originated by finance companies."

"The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans. This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments."
Household Debt Hits $12.4 Trillion As Subprime Loan Delinquencies Hit Highest In 6 Years: NY Fed | Zero HedgeThese Were Supposed To Be Hillary’s Numbers! - DollarCollapse.com

Contrary to reports, non-OPEC countries are not on board.
The marvels of globalism; no crisis is local.
It's not like they are alone.
Santander, Deutsche Bank: U.S. stress test repeat offenders | Reuters

Here is an article about the new gold-backed U.S. currency with pics of the new bills. ALL BS , of course; New Currency for The United States Republic – Backed by Gold – Ready for Distribution » The Event Chronicle
More reading;
Mathematicians Prove Society is Way Too Complex to Have A President
by Alice Salles

http://www.shtfplan.com/conspiracy-fact-and-theory/why-we-always-get-screwed-calculations-show-society-too-complex-to-have-a-president_11182016

[vidbid]

November 30, 2016 was a Terrible Day

[VIDEO]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eImQOQR4ejw[/VIDEO]

You're Not Going To Believe What's Happening Worldwide! Disturbing Events Will Shock You! - YouTube

and December 1st seemed like a rough day, also.

[Danny B]

How December 4th Could Trigger The "Most Violent Economic Shock In History" | Zero Hedge
Voters picked Trump to toss a hand grenade into the political system. Italian voters seem posed to do the same thing.

This whole scenario is going to get a LOT more violent; Trump and The Fourth Turning | Jay Weidner

GOV is broke . The obvious solution is to borrow money with the stipulation that it is never paid back.This is already true from a de facto point of view. GOV just wants to make it the official rule. Steven Mnuchin Roils Bond Markets With Suggestion Of 100 Year Treasury Bond | Zero Hedge
Will GOV borrow it or will GOV print it? QE infinity eyed in Europe if Renzi loses crucial Italian referendum
This is actually a red herring. Currently GOV prints the money,,,, gives it to the banks,,,then, borrows it from the banks.

Don't worry, the Goldman Sachs boys are on the job; http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/01/bu...src=busln&_r=2

They are going to go from flirting to embracing.
Wait a minute,,, we're going to need those 95 million people hard at work to pay off our bond debt.
They meant to write "poop" rather than pop.
Yep, just wait and see.
yeah, all those people who read the net and don't want to be sheared.

This clearly shows the stupidity of politicians. Gold holdings are not traceable. You can say that you got your gold from your great, great, great grandmother and they can't prove otherwise.
Mobs Lock Up Bankers During India's Cash Chaos
Bloomberg - 2 days ago


Yep, all those stupid people who want gold instead of GOV paper.
The PTB would very much like for everyone to equate the dollar with dollar-denominated Treasury bonds. The world is willing to hold dollars,,, they just don't want T-bonds.

I say, open Pandora's box and shove the politician and bureaucrats inside.
Rudder?my culo. Brains, ethics and morals is more like it.
GOV reported that the unemployment rate was improved. The algos immediately responded because a computer doesn't know the difference between truth and lies; http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/u...84&widgetid=39

The elections/referendums in Italy, France and Austria show the sentiment of the PEOPLE, not the bankers and technocrats. The EU rejected Turkey for inclusion. Erdogan has the boats of refugees already loaded up. The Europeans don't want to commit suicide. Every day that goes by and every piece of trash that shows up on the shore makes them reject their "leaders" that much more. We'll see even more of this with Merkel's party.

[Danny B]

Gold and Silver Will Protect From Coming Financial Crash - Rickards - GoldCore Gold Bullion Dealer
$4.1 billion pulled from U.S.-based taxable mutual bond funds during week: Lipper (Reuters.com) Looks like people are getting ready.

JPMorgan Tells Investors: Ignore Mainstream Media | Zero Hedge The VIX was always considered the "fear index". The B.I.S. says to ignore the VIX because the dollar is the new fear index. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eless-bis-says
JPM also says to ignore MSM. Panic now and avoid the rush !

The Italians will vote by a big margin to give the finger to Brussels. THAT will cause capital flight, most likely to the dollar. TRUMPISTI! Italian Populists Expected to Defeat Referendum; EU Crisis Looms | Zero Hedge"Economy Shattered, Currency Collapsing": Venezuelans Wait in 6 ATM Lines For Enough to Buy Rice

The FED; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ederal-reserve

[Danny B]

Buy some popcorn and watch italy

The investors (vultures) are starting to take up big short positions against Italian Banks. If This Happens, Italy’s Banking System Becomes “Insolvent” | Casey Research
"In the Italian system, the banks say (assets) are worth 45-50 cents in the dollar. But the bid price is 20 cents."

China; "A lender called Guiyang Rural Commercial Bank Co. in the southwestern province of Guizhou sparked concern that risks among smaller lenders are spreading after its rating outlook was cut last month following a jump in overdue loans to 30 percent of the total."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-01/small-china-banks-with-4-trillion-assets-seen-too-big-to-fail

ZIRP, the gift that keeps on giving. What happens to pension funds without interest-income?
"California's public pension underfunding levels. After averaging $77,700 per household in 2014, the amount of public pension underfunding for the state of California jumped to a staggering $92,748 per household in 2015. I think that the 2015 date is a mistake.
California isn't alone; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20Chart_0.jpg
California needs a LOT of federal money and should call up Trump right away
Stanford Study Reveals California Pensions Underfunded By $1 Trillion Or $93k Per Household | Zero Hedge
This is nothing new. It is a battle between current workers and retired workers.

[Danny B]

Europe holds its breath as Italy heads to the polls for critical referendum
The Euro-centric powers are trying to convince the Europeans that continuing with proven policies of failure are necessary for the economic revival of Europe. Populism is bad and centralized power is good.

"Trump boasted about his deal to keep about 1,100 Carrier jobs in Indiana, and also took aim at other companies who may be thinking about moving jobs out of the country."
President-elect Donald Trump's speech about his deal to keep Carrier jobs in the United States was "absolutely the worst speech," economic policy analyst Jimmy Pethokoukis told CNBC on Thursday.

"Companies are not going to leave the United States anymore without consequences. Not going to happen. It's not going to happen, I'll tell you right now," Trump said on Thursday.

"The idea that American corporations are going to have to make business decisions, not based on the fact that we've created an ideal environment for economic growth in the United States, but out of fear of punitive actions based on who knows what criteria exactly from a presidential administration. I think that's absolutely chilling,"
So, tell me about this " ideal environment for economic growth"
"However, Carrier still plans to move roughly 1,300 other jobs to Mexico and close another facility in Indiana. "
" Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs under President Bill Clinton, said the problem in this country is not about getting people to work.
"Unemployment is below 5 percent today. "
Trump's Carrier speech 'absolutely chilling,' economic analyst says

Huff Post said that Killary lost because "she wrote off the working man." Her voters were concentrated in dense metropolitan areas that shuffled around a LOT of money AND areas where there was a concentration of people on GOV money. The people that were accustomed to actually working for money wanted nothing to do with her.
Momentum and history say that we will go into a cascade of default that brings down the credit bubble. There will be a period of resolution where the people in finance try to figure out just who owes what to whom.
Jim Rickards was the lead attorney in the resolution of LTCM when it went bust. He says that the banks will be closed during the resolution. There will be no interregnum. Cash will still be king.
Every paper asset will be at some place on Exeter's Pyramid. The farther it is from gold, the less likely that you can sell it for cash. THAT is when true "price discovery" begins. Anything that you try to liquidate for cash will enter the marketplace with few buyers.

Most paper assets have a value that is directly related to some facet of production & consumption. Either profits or taxes. With 95 million of working age not in the work force and very low wages for the rest of us, there will be severely diminished production & consumption.
Jim Willie said that we will get a new dollar. Somebody? else said that internal dollars would be reduced in value by 50% and external dollars would remain the same value. Dunno about that.

We have two concurrent miracles; global currency flows, compounding interest.
The giga-joules of electronic money skitter from one market to another looking to avoid the anti-matter of ZIRP. Debt creation has gone higher than exponential growth. The U.S. dollar is the new "fear gauge" because of capital flight from China and Emerging markets. Every additional day of ZIRP brings the funds closer to illiquidity.
An escape from ZIRP brings fire and brimstone.

The war on cash is as bogus as the war on climate change; https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/...on-cash-20526/

Edit; Well, Renzi lost as expected. When Brexit lost, the politicians just said not to worry, they would block it.
Maybe a bullet through the brain would be a more clear sign of dis-satisfaction.

"Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London, said the most likely outcome would be for Renzi to resign and a new caretaker government to take over. The new government would then be expected to focus entirely on the passage of a new electoral law, which in turn would hamper the ability of either the M5S or the Northern League from winning a strong majority in the next elections. "
So, the PTB plan to use this opportunity to pass laws that would block any future efforts for "unapproved" parties to gain power.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/dec/04/italian-referendum-and-austrian-presidential-election-live

There is no "political consensus" to leave but, there is definitely a popular consensus. The politicians are desperate to do damage control and keep investors from pulling out of Italian banks and bonds.

"They" are saying that there is no hurry to call elections. BUT, the referendum went down in flames with 60% against. Beppe Grillo calls for immediate elections.

[Danny B]

President-elect Donald Trump’s unhappy fate is to oversee a financial crisis far worse than the last, triggered either by Deutsche Bank or by the failure of a bullion bank to deliver gold | City A.M.

https://matasii.com/cycles-the-end-of-the-debt-super-cycle-2/

Goldman Sachs is telling all it's muppets to get in the stock market. They will be sheared if they are lucky and BBQ if they are not lucky. Goldman's Bear Case In 7 Steps: "We Are In The 98th Percentile Of Historical Valuations" | Zero Hedge