Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Seems that you just can't escape the yield curve.

Well, the recession has started. The inception seems to have been in December when Powell did a bit of tightening. The whole system just can't survive even a little bit of a drawdown. Couple of vids.
May 7, 89% of stocks traded in the red.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t5CHS25Jm8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSsaThJytg4

[Danny B]

Speedbumps here and there.

Lawyers account for 1.5% of U.S. gdp spent. The only country cursed with more lawyers than America is israel with about double our number. Law schools are closing because nobody wants to be a lawyer any more. A.I. is taking over much of the work.
BUT, there is a new golden goose on the horizon.

https://sputniknews.com/us/201905101074888324-asteroid-impact-doomsday-scenario-court-compensation/

The FED is America's primary instrument of world slavery. If the FED can't successfully plunder at will, then the military comes in. Russia has broken the model because of their advanced weapons. That is why America resorts to sanctions. Invasion is off the table.
Bolton and Pompeo are banging the war drums to try to fence in Russia, China and Iran.

https://www.rt.com/news/458764-pompeo-russia-nord-stream/

Pompeo also warned Russia and china not to exploit the arctic.
America long ago reached peak cheap oil and our economic system just won't work out with expensive oil.
China Hits Back at Pompeo Warning It Against 'Aggressive Behaviour' in Arctic
Aggressive behavior,,, means drilling for oil that rightfully belongs to America.


Trump can't nuke China so, he does the next best thing.
Oakland is using gas tax money to keep the street lights on.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/05/09/sanctuary-city-oakland-near-broke-will-use-gas-tax-money-to-keep-lights-on/

The yield curve inversion is a sign of a lack of confidence and the FED is desperate to warp it anyway that they can.

China loses 15% of GDP to pollution. Coal ash is especially bad at polluting farmland with metals.

[Danny B]

Good article from Orlov,,,, FUSOR

This is a long, informative article that comes to the conclusion that our entire future depends on building LOTS of advanced nuclear reactors.
ClubOrlov: America, You Are Fired!
They don't make mention of the fact that there is plenty of oil in the world. Much of it is in Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Pox Americana is talking up a good battle plan for these areas but, Russian arms make them no-fly zones. The world is very tired of American wars for plunder. They are trying to slip away from our control.
There seem to be a LOT of guests reading this thread. I started a separate thread for the FUSOR. It has almost no reads. I doubt that any of the guests know the history and possibilities of the FUSOR.
I guess that I should explain it here.

"Philo Farnsworth conceived the world's first all-electronic television at the age of 15. By the time he died, he had earned over 300 U.S. and and foreign patents."
He was a BRILLIANT inventor of radio tubes (valves). He came up with a design that appeared to have a tiny "star" inside. He progressed with the design until his work was shut down by his employer. Since that time MANY people have built copies of his (FUSOR) They even sell kits. It is that safe.
It is old technology. $100s of billions have been spent on hot fusion research. Actually, it was weapons research in disguise. But now, as fracking crashes, the West has to come up with something to alleviate the crash caused by expensive domestic oil. The powers that be are willing to let the hot fusion cat out of the bag,,, since oil is on the wan.

Lockheed Martin is the designated hitter for the Farnsworth technology.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/19652/lockheed-martin-now-has-a-patent-for-its-potentially-world-changing-fusion-reactor

Remember, this tech has been around since the 60s. As fracking sinks into the sunset, the FUSOR has been pulled off the shelf and dusted off.
Somebody should tell O.A.C. and Bernie about it.

[Danny B]

Stabbing China,, panic in the swamp,,, EU meltdown

Friedrich von Hayek first published The Road to Serfdom in 1944. It is a long treatise on economic systems and governing system. This article goes into detail about socialism, capitalism, communism.
The Road to Serfdom was about the cross-over between democracy and dictatorships. Reportedly, we are in a democracy that is morphing into socialism.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/in-praise-of-hayek-s-masterwork

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Deal or No Deal
The crash is coming anyway. Trump is going to climb up and over the bodies of dead Chinese.

As mentioned by Armstrong for the last 40 years..

Kunstler writes about generations of swamp creatures who are now looking at a noose.

https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/crisis-what-crisis/

"Cashless" Sweden Suddenly Warns Citizens: Hoard Banknotes & Coins In Case Of Cyber-Attack Or War

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-09/cashless-sweden-suddenly-warns-citizens-hoard-banknotes-coins-case-cyber-attack-or

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-disturbing-reasons-behind-the-meteoric-rise-in-americans-debt-2019-05-10?siteid=YAHOOB

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1125353/EU-news-Yanis-Varoufakis-eurozone-crisis-euro-Germany-France-ECB-European-Union-latest

Here is a confusing article on renewables. Reportedly, Ca. has too much solar power. The article is purposely confusing. If you look at the graph, it shows a shrinkage of the use of oil (thermal) and a shrinkage of imports of power.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4262588-californias-mid-day-solar-power-glut-become-obvious

[Danny B]

The coming trade grenade

The Smoot-Hawley Act is the Tariff Act of 1930. It increased 900 import tariffs by an average of 40 to 48 percent. This reduced world trade by about 50%. This was before containerized shipping and globalism. Mr. "art of the deal" is going for throat in an effort to bring jobs back to America.
Here are the top 4 steel exporters to America.
China: US$14.9 billion (20% of US iron/steel imports)
Canada: $10.3 billion (13.9%)
Mexico: $7.5 billion (10.1%)
Taiwan: $4.1 billion (5.5%)
.................................................. .................................................. ........................................
U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totalled an estimated $714.1 billion in 2018. Exports were $360.5 billion; imports were $353.6 billion.
.................................................. .................................................. ...........................................
Mexico ranked No. 1 in total trade value through March with a total of $150.58 billion. Exports totalled $63.95 billion and Imports totalled $86.63 billion
.................................................. .................................................. ..........................................
Goods exports totalled $120.3 billion; goods imports totalled $539.5 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $419.2 billion in 2018.

So, do you think that U.S. exports will still continue at the previous level after we give our customers a good thrashing?

This is the best way to make sure that they DON'T agree on a deal. There will NOT be any backtracking. We demand to have external control of their GOV to ensure compliance.

This has gone well beyond flirting.

Rense.
Trump Vows To Make US-China Trade Deals 'Far Worse' In His Second Term
Trump New Tariff Hikes On China Will Cost $500-$800 Per American Household
So, the question is; will the gain in new American jobs offset the enormous loss of international trade? The deficit of $419.2 billion in 2018 isn't likely to continue. The answer is NO.
Luongo - Will Trump Vanity Destroy Global Economy?
I think that his lack of understanding in respect to global capital flows will destroy it. We have run HUGE trade deficits that will NEVER recover, once they are cut loose.
Creep Biden's Greatest Betrayal - Almost 4 Years Ago He Voted For The Evil Bankruptcy Bill Making Student Loan Debts A Lifetime Sentence Of Agony - Flashback

China Car Sales Tank 16.6% In April, Falling For A Record 11 Months In A Row
The Chinese heavy-lift launch vehicle named CONSUMPTION just can't seem to get off the ground.

Here is another link detailing the crash in Fracking.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

177 gigawatts fo clean energy added per year. That has to cut into carbon energy.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/21567/20190511/clean-energy-growth-failed-to-increase-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-20-years.htm

"The federal government spent $2,573,708,000,000 in the first seven months of fiscal 2019 (October through April), setting an all-time record for real federal spending in the first seven months of a fiscal year,"
"At the same time that the Treasury was spending the most it has ever spent in the first seven months of a fiscal year, it also ran a deficit of $530,870,000,000."
Good graph.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/2573708000000-federal-spending-sets-all-time-record-through-april

All the money is stuck in the upper loop. Bill Gates isn't going to go out and buy a millions slacks. For lack of wages, the consumer abandoned commerce. This shrunk the unshrinkable credit bubble. TARP temporarily reflated it. There have been various attempts to permanently reflate it. Last December, the FED attempted to reduce the reflation. That set off the current recession. That was the snowflake that set off the avalanche. There are various proposals for reinflating the lower loop,,, now that it has become obvious that reinflating the upper loop just makes things worse.


Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressure AND those with few abilities and skills. The State trades benefits and jobs in return for votes. THAT program has become too expensive. The State hopes to get out from under this load by printing fresh money for the lower loop. I don't believe that this can be done in a democracy.

[Danny B]

Armstrong,,,, China trade fears growing

Armstrong has a warning about how global cooling / weather volatility is creating a lot of crop loss.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/agriculture/are-we-heading-into-a-food-shortage/

'I previously wrote about the soaring bankruptcies among farmers and combine this with the flooding that continues, I believe the computer will be on point. I also wrote about how this year, the Russian wheat crop failed has failed because of the bitter cold with even April coming in as the coldest in more than 140 years. To make matters worse, our computer warns that the weather will not improve. The next 4 years will put even more financial pressure farmers. "

Armstrong, "The work ethic is not really derived from religion but from the freedom under capitalism. Both in Russia and China, people retained their religious beliefs but in secret. Chine practised the Tall Poppie Syndrome where they did not care what you thought provided you did not stick your head up above others. Russia under Stalin was one of paranoia. He directed children to report on their parents. This is why China has boomed for it left humanity intact. The Chinese are highly motivated to work more so than in the West. It is part of their culture."
Somebody should point this out to Bernie.

There is great fear in the upper loop of a win by Bernie.

https://mailchi.mp/rickackerman/heres-why-stocks-have-been-churning-17805?e=3cc6b6298b

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-12/odds-point-worst-case-scenario-shocked-traders-respond-latest-trade-war-twist

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-13/what-ultimate-downside-target-if-china-us-cant-reach-agreement

It's hard to say just how much turbulence the markets can take.

The Global Collateral Accounts is a slippery devil like Big Foot. Here is the latest.

http://neilkeenan.com/history-events-timeline/

Both of these articles can be found at dollar collapse.com
Too speculative for me to quote.

Globalism has unbalanced world trade TOO MUCH. It will have to die to stave off revolutions.

Time just isn't on his side.

[Danny B]

Tradfe war takes center stage,,,, Fulford

First, China trade news.
China Defies Trump Warning Not To Impose Tariffs On US Goods & Does Exactly That As Trade War Worsens

Dow Dives 617 Points After China Retaliates On Trump

Here's What Happens if China DUMPS Its $1 Trillion in US Debt Amid Trump Trade War
Kudlow - Trump Has No Idea How Tariffs Work
That is possible but, Mnuchin and the commerce dept must know.
Trump: Beijing "Will Be Hurt Very Badly" If They Retaliate With More Tariffs

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-13/trump-beijing-will-be-hurt-very-badly-if-they-retaliate-more-tariffs

Trump isn't stupid and, he knows the bond market. Why is he backing China into a corner when he knows that there will be a lot of fallout?

Benjamin Fulford may have the answer. He has made some startling predictions and statements. Many of them prove true. ALL of them lie untouched by MSM. Here is an article that goes a long way in explaining many of Trump's actions. There is a following article on the same page that is quite good too.

https://benjaminfulford.net/category/white-dragon-society/weekly-reports/

Here is a good article on how Ponzi schemes tend to drain money from each other. It's a good read.
We're Gonna Need More Bag-holders... | AdventuresInCapitalism | Small Companies--Big Upside

[Danny B]

https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2019/05/13/macro-update-gold-bitcoin-and-the-gigantic-global-debt-bubble/

The CBs are on a treadmill That is speeding up.

Historically, Whenever gov debt exceeded 80% of GDP, the situation was beyond recovery and, there was a default.
Japanese government debt is about 260% of gdp.

So, Japanese gov debt is seen as a safe haven.
Is Japan the test case to see how and where public debt could be force-fed into an economy? Is Japan the test bed to; try to keep the economy growing at the same time that the population is falling? For all practical purposes, Japan has gone full MMT.

If America goes full MMT and prints what the State needs, there would be no use for the FED. This prospect would induce current bond holders of public debt to trade this debt off for something else. Will the Chinese dump $1 trillion?
Remember, the Chinese hang on EVERY word that Armstrong utters.
"The government should just create the money it needs to cover its expenses"

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/trump-taxes/

Japan may very well be the test bed for this exact idea. The MMT naysayers claim that we would have stupendous price inflation. Japan does NOT have appreciable price inflation.


The yield curve inversion is more of a barometer of investor confidence. The inversion doesn't bring recession. The lost confidence brings it.

[Danny B]

No more speedbumps,,, from now on, it's land mines

If you are invested in stocks, this page of charts should give you a good indication of when the markets will top ,out.

https://northmantrader.com/2019/05/13/deal-vu/

Armstrong has plenty to say.
"It is clear QE is dead. However, at the same time it has trapped all central banks. "
yep, the upper loop is stuffed to the gills with liquidity.
"the very reason why the West will collapse and the financial capital of the world will move to China, who has come out and stated publicly that they will not engage in QE."
Yes, of course, we trust the Chinese. The PBOC created more fresh liquidity that the BOJ, FED and ECB all put together. BUT, don't worry, they won't do QE.What a bunch of BS. The lower class wasn't deprived of investing. They were deprived of a living wage.
"During WEC in Rome I came to understand that the issue with QE is that it did not create any inflation in the USA"
The markets went up 250% but, there was not any inflation.
"The primary reason QE fails is because the economy is global. Central banks can no longer manage the economy, for the money does not remain in isolation. Additionally, as I pointed out in Rome, they may have negative interest rates, but that does not pass through. You cannot borrow money from a bank at negative rates."
The primary reason that QE did not bring a recovery is because the liquidity got stuck in the upper loop where it just circulated as instruments, NOT consumption.


NOBODY is going to win the trade war. Only 6 countries benefited from globalization. Everybody knows that it is time to reverse it.

Bannon cheers trade war, hopes China Govt Falls

https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/the-trend-is-not-your-friend/

As the pie shrinks, everybody is fighting harder to get a piece.

[Pot head]

Piffle and hoohaw!!

Can you post anything that is a circuit or a photo of your science project because your posts are only read by you.
Some posts may be read but seriously, who reads this **** and why all the ****ing links?
You need a girlfriend or something?

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/using-events-to-further-power/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-history/where-are-we-in-the-roman-timeline/

Cuba imports 2/3 of their food supply,,, much of it chicken. I've been there and, they have plenty of resources. Since they (mostly) don't allow good old capitalism, nobody can get rich. Even Fidel Castro said that their economic system just doesn't work. If they can't even supply enough chicken, they have a serious problem.

If U.S. GOV tries to grow at all costs,,,, and starts confiscating everything they can get hold of, investment will stop and wealth will be hidden away. if food production stops because there is no profit in it, the cities will be in deep trouble.



So, we are nearing the final meltdown of fracking,,,,, a complete economic collapse from runaway debt,,, crop loss from the solar minimum combined with the pole flip.

China is using the social credit system to lock down ANY dissent. The specter of terrorism is used to justify any and all laws that the State wants here in America.
What could go wrong?

[Pot head]

Exactly My Point

No response just like someone brainwashed.
As always more links to nowhere and more dragging down of the forum.
Let it stop.

[Danny B]

reducing the resources and employees available to other more promising companies. "
102 million Americans of working age are not in the labor force. These zombie companies keep that number from going higher. If / when they collapse, the number of unemployed will go much higher.THE CURRENT MONETARY ORDER IS NEARING ITS END | Claudio Grass
Even reading Armstrong, he has a strong slant towards the viewpoint of the investor. AKA, a non-producer who rents out money,,, usually not his. This is a long-standing blind spot of the money renters. They assume that they can survive just fine even when the consumers are flat broke. The corporate mentality is total blindness to anything not directly under the control of the corporation.


The lower that consumption goes,,, the more that the CB has to pump in to keep the bubble inflated.

ALL of this is deflationary at a time that the credit bubble needs to grow.

Nobody WANTED to notice.


If the dollar goes up, it attracts outside investment.
if it goes down, it makes more competitive at exporting.

"Neoliberal financialization and Fed goosing of risk assets are why the nation's wealth has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of financial elites.As you can see in the charts below, the gains reaped by the top 10% were concentrated in the top 1%, and the gains of the top 1% have been concentrated in the top .01%."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century--and Not for the Better

[Danny B]

Creeping contagion


So, somebody DID notice.

The lack of living wages is breaking everything.

Powell did his little squeeze in December. That caused a coronary. Trump essentially pushed the world off a cliff with his tariffs. I suspect that both Trump and Powell were taking advice from the FED,,, that has 200 PHDs working for it. Remember that Mnuchin said that A.I. would not take jobs for 50---100 years. The District of corruption is a VERY well paid echo chamber where everybody thinks that they have the answers.
Bernanke bet the farm that he could fix everything. It wasn't his farm that he blew up.


The rivers of (non-QE) liquidity flowing out of China have been created to prop up China. They are propping up everything. China can't very well cut them off.

The financialization of everything means that contagion will burn EVERYTHING

Apparently, the sharks smell blood. Remember the contagion. They can NOT close just a few banks. all or nothing.

"2 days ago - Shares in Metro Bank, until recently the UK's fastest growing high street ...rumours on social media, sparking fears that a mini bank run was under way. "


As the economy tanks, the hot money flows into housing and drives out the people who actually want to live in a house. Bernanke and Greenspan started up the hot money train to save the banks. Since 2005, there has been no increase in the number of owner-occupied housing.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/187576/housing-units-occupied-by-owner-in-the-us-since-1975/

The builders have been building JUST for the speculators.

[Danny B]

Desperation, yes,,,, war, maybe

Sorry, I have to get more political and less economic. Obviously, the worst of both worlds is WAR.
The president created WW II in the hopes that it would bring an exit from the Great Depression I. He blockaded Japan in the hopes that they would act,,,, an act of war. We all hope that this doesn't come to pass once again.

Trump could win trade battle with China but lose the war
Nobody is going to win this one.
Comey Turns On Brennan - Fired FBI Chief Claims Brennan Pushed Junk Dossier in IC Report

This is tearing us apart.
DC Police With Battering Ram Raid VZ Embassy And Arrest Anti-Coup Activists
This was VERY bad when the Iranians invaded the American embassy in Teheran,,,, but, it's OK if we do it.


Half of Americans are just one paycheck away from financial disaster
NOT the ones in D.C.

They can't ALL get government jobs. What happens when they apply in the private sector?

Ah yes, erase the narrative. BUT, they didn't count on the newest terror that is attacking them. Soph has been on youtube for a couple of years, and she strikes terror into the hearts of the establishment. she is only 14.
https://www.*****ute.com/video/OdaUDeAGIck/


The U.S. military has never loaded a single oil tanker. Like the scorpion that stings itself when it has been attacked by an impossible adversary, Iran can and will take out every bit of oil infrastructure in the M.E.


There is a lot of desperation creeping in to State actions.
Syria to exhaust all means to retake Israeli-occupied, Stolen Golan
They have said that they are ready for invasion.
EU Fines 5 Major Banks 1 Bln Euros for Cartel Collusion
Evidently, these banks did NOT pay off the right person.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/strike-three-the-next-bear-market-ends-the-game/