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  • The current downturn and, losing confidence

    Since everybody buys on margin or credit, confidence in the future is all important. A small dip in the price of stocks is called an opportunity to "buy the dip". As the dips get larger, confidence weakens. At some point, everybody wants to "short" the market.
    CNN, Here's how much money you could be losing by avoiding the stock market
    NBC, The stock market lost more than $2 trillion in October - CNBC
    The truth is, the net makes it impossible to hide financial fundamentals. Computers make almost instantaneous analysis.
    Here is a short article with a few graphs that puts everything in perspective.
    Traders continue to act as though the market is just “correcting” and that we will soon be running to new all-time highs. That is NOT going to happen. It’s too late for that. The Fed screwed up, an…
    Trump Reverses Yet Again - OKs $750 Billion Military Budget,
    Days After Saying $716 Billion Was 'CRAZY' & Too Much! It's
    Biggest Military Budget In History & We're $22 Trillion In Debt


    Somebody pulled him aside and told him that the printing presses had to run in hyperdrive if he hoped to maintain some stability while Japan, Europe and China were collapsing.
    Powell is hiking to attract foreign capital. BUT, he can't hike so high that debt service on sovereign bonds becomes too costly. He must find a balance point that drains capital from our competitors but, doesn't crash the sovereign debt market,,,, not yet, at least.

    One of the eternal debates is; will this cause inflation or deflation. Due to woolly thinking, people group together price levels with money supply. Inflation is defined as an increase in the supply of money. This may or, may not cause price inflation. All of this debate is complicated because an increase in the money supply is an increase in debt.
    In ancient times when gold and silver were the primary money, the circulating money supply was dependent on CONFIDENCE, not on supply. In times of low confidence, gold and silver went into hiding, NOT investment.

    In the '70s, the State allowed / promoted the paper gold market..
    Paper Gold Trading Market Continues To Depress Price
    Paper Gold Market 91% of Global GDP - Crush The Street

    The paper gold market was created so that the State could thwart any attempt to flee into gold when interest rates fell. The banks and the State want to keep all wealth circulating.
    The End Of TINA -- Or 'There Is No Alternative' To Equity Buying - Forbes
    https://www.forbes.com/.../the-end-o...-equity-buying



    As profits shrink and political instability gets worse;
    America's wealthy are moving to cash as market enthusiasm hits a wall
    Here is the article from Armstrong
    QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; the WEC was the best ever. The materials it took you a month to prepare in advance are amazing. Your insight into the difference

    "Therefore, despite the increase in coinage output, there was DEFLATION as we have witnessed in Europe under the Quantitative Easing of the European Central Bank (ECB). The increase in money supply resulted only in hoarding rather than inflation. They still had faith in the purchasing power of money."

    You can see from all this that hoarding reduces the circulating money supply. The obvious answer is to go to 100% digital currency and the blockchain. The State can impose negative interest rates on everybody.

    "his seems to imply that the economy was contracting significantly thanks to the reign of Maximinus I (235-238AD) who simply declared all private wealth belonged to the state (him)"
    "the reasons I sought to reconstruct the monetary system was to gain a look at what was really taking place within the Roman Empire because the common denominator is how people respond to events regardless of the century."
    Last edited by Danny B; 12-12-2018, 02:57 PM. Reason: punktuation

    Comment


    • Deficits and solar storms

      The ECB is screaming at Italy because they are only allowed to run a 2% deficit. France, on the other hand, is allowed to run a 3% deficit,,,, because it's France. The Yellow Vest demonstrations moved out to other countries and threatened the establishment. Macron came up with some concessions that will now push the French deficit to 3.6% The banks weren't much impressed.

      Teresa May has left Britain to beg EU leaders to renegotiate.

      Automatic Earth has a good article on this.
      These things seem normal and eternal. Just politics. But all the usual suspects appear to be under siege. France, UK, Germany are shaking, Italy's already overboard.


      As the Chinese financial system swirls down the drain, Australia is expected to melt down. If your Aussie, you should read this.
      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
      6 months or more"
      "The report recommends Americans have enough supplies on hand for a minimum 14 days

      Comment


      • QUESTION: I have been a reader for 10+ year, Socrates subs and reg for Orlando WEC. Thank you and as a Veteran, I admire your courage and service.


        " The latest trend among European countries of bringing home their gold reserves has been raising concerns in Brussels.
        According to Grass, the process means disintegration"
        "According to Grass, only a fool believes you can create wealth out of nothing, and use that as a basis for a sustainable system."
        "He explained that in the Western world, the government is forcing people to give up between 35 and 65 percent of their income and to put it into mandatory vehicles such as pension funds, retirement insurance, taxes, and so on."
        As more and more European countries bring their gold home, the collapse of the euro is just a matter of time.


        "The storm clouds of the next global financial crisis are gathering despite the world financial system being unprepared for another downturn, the deputy head of the International Monetary Fund has warned."
        "U.S. consumers are more than 13 trillion dollars in debt."
        The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned that “crisis prevention is incomplete” and called on world leaders to bolster their financial systems to make the global integrated economy more resilient to a meltdown.


        Trump can't do much about intellectual property theft but, he can put the squeeze on Chinese chip makers, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...a-really-about

        Very Italian of them.

        Comment


        • Blame it all on the FED

          Any economy is subject to occasional panics. When banks do fractional reserve lending, they are subject to collapse from blanket withdrawals. The finance community created the panic of 1907.
          Investopedia, "The Bank Panic of 1907 was a set of bank runs and bankruptcies that led industry leaders to draft the first version of the Federal Reserve"
          So, a panic in 1907 and, the creation of the FED in 1913. No single private bank could withstand a run on the bank. The FED was created and owned by private banks as a sort of mutual insurance system.
          Armstrong, "The creation of the Federal Reserve was with the power to create money in times of crisis to meet the demand for withdrawals without having to dump assets in a panic. Then World War I came and instead of the Fed stimulating the economy by buying the corporate paper to directly create jobs, politicians instructed the Fed to buy ONLY government bonds. "

          Private banks have a mismatch of maturities. They borrow short (deposits) and, loan long. The idea of a backstop is logical.
          "The Fed operates as a central bank, controlling fiscal and monetary policy. Its three goals are to promote maximum employment, keep prices stable (ie. control inflation) and to moderate long-term interest rates."
          So, the bankers created an agency to serve the bankers interests.
          "The Fed began with approximately 300 people, representatives of banks who became owners (stockholders purchased stock at $100 per share) of the Federal Reserve Banking System. 100% of its shareholders are private banks; the stock is not publicly traded and none of its stock is owned by the US government."

          "Commercial banks borrow from the Fed to meet reserve requirements established in law (set up after the 1929 stock market crash to avoid another run on the banks which caused many to become insolvent). This is known as the discount window. Borrowing from the Fed is quicker and easier than borrowing from another bank, but it is more expensive"

          Central Banks were originally created to supply war finance.
          Ahead of The Herd

          Everybody throws rocks at the FED but, it wasn't the FED that created the welfare-warfare state.
          It wasn't the FED that promised unsustainable pensions.
          The governmental system we have is totally corrupt and it outright UNSUSTAINABLE!!!! In Illinois, the city of Peoria has been forced to eliminate 22

          Merkel promised that there would be NO State bailouts for banks. Deutsche bank promised to leave a crater half the size of Germany. She relented.
          Deutsche Bank is in crisis and everyone has known that. Its derivative book is hard to quantify what is the real net bottom line. The only bank it could have

          Comment


          • Attacking China,,, ECB and stimulus,,,Macron blows it

            A short article on stocks with good graphs.
            This article is an overview of the principal factors likely to drive the gold price in 2019. It looks at the global factors that have developed in 2018 for both gold and the dollar, how geopolitics are likely to evolve, the economic outlook and how it is worsened for the dollar by President...


            " The European Central Bank formally ended its 2.6 trillion euro crisis-fighting bond purchase scheme on Thursday but promised to keep feeding stimulus for years into an economy struggling"
            I'd like to know just what form this stimulus is going to take.
            When an event grabs headlines like the protests in France have I temper my reactions to it.  I didn’t give the Yellow Vest protests much thought at first wanting to see where they would lead. Protests like this and even bigger ones like Catalonian independence are invariably betrayed by the European political establishment.  They become […]
            France is NOT the place to do this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFV6R_ZuAc8

            "According to data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, insolvencies climbed to 11,641 in October, a 9.2% rise compared to the year prior. Even more alarming, month over month this rise was up a staggering and somewhat inexplicable 16%, as if something "broke", pardon the pun, in October."
            ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero



            That is because they put their money into passive investment funds and, went to the beach.

            So, when does this all default?

            Nobody is listening.

            Comment


            • Debt is eating up the world

              "Macron is pushing for the European Finance Minister to raise money by selling EU bonds and then distribute the money to the 19-member Eurozone. France is very heavily indebted and here once again we have simply the goal to raise more money rather than reform. Because of the riots in France, Macron is trying to get the EU to fund France. They want to call this the European Monetary Fund"
              NOBODY would buy these bonds. He's hoping to buy some time but, the revolts are quickly spreading.

              The Venezuelan government has their own plan on how to fund government.
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

              They also created a crypto coin backed by their oil. BUT, the oil seems to be stuck underground.
              Hillary is working hard to see Trump get re-elected.


              The stock markets have lost $trillions. The Shanghai index is down about 20%. While this causes capital flight to safer jurisdictions, it also promises a LOT of contagion. Here is a graph of the leveraged loan index.
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

              "And then, loan pricing nose-dived along with prices on most other credit products starting around the first week of October, right after Powell's "neutral rate" speech,,,, ... and suddenly complacency turned to sheer panic without passing go. But the catalyst for this wholesale dread was not so much the slump in prices as much as fund flows - i.e., observing in real time what one's peers are doing - and as we showed yesterday, they are selling, with Lipper reporting that loan funds saw a record outflow of $2.53 billion in the week ended December 12, a fitting culmination to the fourth consecutive week of selling."
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


              If you look at this graph, you will see that institutional investors make up the bulk of the buyers.
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

              Everybody else has pulled out. Should the markets crash, as delineated by John Hussman, the big funds will all be insolvent.
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


              Here is a graph of hedge funds index.
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

              $10,000 a week seems fair.perceived deflation. Many investors are going to cash. This counts as deflation in the circulating money supply.
              "Fast forward to today when Goldman reports that just two weeks after our original report, the number of A to BBB downgrades has doubled to a whopping $176 billion in the fourth quarter,"
              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero





              Greenspan argued for deregulation of banks because they could regulate themselves to make the most profit. Forget about malfeasance to make this profit. There is another problem. The individual traders will act to make the most profit for themselves,,, not necessarily for the bank.
              When interest rates to ZIRP, lots of companies gorged on free money to do buybacks. This reduced the number of outstanding shares and, bumped up the dividend per share. It also bumped up compensation and bonuses for traders and partners. Once the ZIRP ended, the debt service on the free money started to strangle corporate profits.
              As profits fell, investors pulled out their money.

              $9 trillion corporate debt bomb is 'bubbling' in the US economy
              How The Corporate Debt Bubble Will Destroy The Economy - ValueWalk

              Here is the graph, https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...8796505134.png

              Comment


              • The protests

                The overlay of the EU bureaucracy on top of existing bureaucracy has reduced the wealth of European countries by 20%. The outsourcing of jobs has further reduced national wealth. There just isn't any money to go around.
                UK faces longest fall in living standards since records began, says ...

                UK has 'worst quality of life in Europe' | Money |
                No Babies? - Declining Population in Europe - The New York Times
                https://www.nytimes.

                Here is a good article on the yellow vest protests.The Indiscreet Charm of the <i>Gilets Jaunes</i>, by C.J. Hopkins - The Unz Review

                Because Teresa May is screwing the Brits so well, there is a very good chance of these protests spreading to Great Britain. Their standard of living is certainly falling.
                Yellow vest-wearing activists took to the streets of London on Friday, blocking traffic and chanting pro-Brexit slogans. They spoke to Sputnik about their mistrust in politicians and hopes for a clean exit from the European Union.


                Notes in israel;

                He is so corrupt, that there have been weekly protests about him.
                A few years back, the protesters brought along a beautiful GUILLOTINE;
                French Revolution symbol becomes main attraction at Tel Aviv's protest center, as rallies continue to spread across country. Protest leaders say Beersheba to hold next mass rally

                Israeli protests: 430,000 take to streets to demand social justice ...
                https://www.theguardian


                Israel is afflicted with zionism and, the don't like it.

                American taxpayers give Israel over $10.5 million per day.
                You would think that $10.5 million a day would pay for bread for the people.

                France's protests are hurting the economy at a crucial time - Quartz
                I guess that we just have to wait and see how much.

                Comment


                • State, AI, finance, wages, non-producers

                  Man created the State to bring order to society. Out of necessity, the State must gain it's support from coercion and taxing. The State has the lawbooks, the guns and, the prisons. Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressures and the non-producers. The main problem comes in because the State is the prime non-producer. Because of it's great power over society, the State attracts and nourishes corruption. All States do redistribution with themselves at the head of the line. Hegel came up with the idea of the Hegelian dialectic where everybody is an employee of the State. This is perfectly in line with the mindset of a non-producer but, it goes completely against the rationale of any person who wants to work hard and get ahead. This is the mantra of socialism.

                  Another non-producer of equal proportion to the State is the financial sector. At one time, the finance business was responsible for intelligent distribution and allocation of surplus capital. The holder of surplus capital didn't know who was credit worthy and, who was not. The banker filled the niche of discerning who was morally and financially likely to correctly invest the desired sum of the loan.
                  The banker was entrusted with everyone's surplus capital. All this surplus capital was owned by somebody and, not the property of the banker.
                  Fractional-reserve banking was created to address this problem.

                  At the same time, parasite number one (the State) gave it's blessing to this expansion of the purported money supply. The 2 chief parasites were in agreement that they were best served by perpetual monetary inflation. The State definitely had the power and the tools to forestall this monetary inflation but, how else was it to support the always growing bureaucracy ?
                  The State stole the wealth produced by the working class through taxes. The bankers stole the wealth of the working class by monetary inflation and front-running. The banks produced free money and, added this to the pot of money from your savings. They, then bought up everything in sight and, later resold it to you.

                  Man dies and has to pay death-duties (inheritance taxes) but, the corporation is eternal. Over the decades, the corporation accumulates more power and money.
                  These 11 Companies Control Everything You Buy - Activist Post
                  This concentration of monopoly pricing power has another effect. Each individual person has to sell their labor. Neither capital nor the State wants to see labor rates rise. Wiki has MANY examples of the State taking the side of capital.
                  "Battle of the Viaduct, part of the Great Railroad Strike of 1877: Violence erupted between a crowd and police, federal troops, and state militia at the Halsted Street Viaduct. When it ended, 30 were dead.[11]"
                  Collective bargaining is blocked wherever possible.
                  Capital has monopoly-pricing power but, labor has no collective wage demand power.
                  Automation promised great reductions in the price of manufactured goods. This was not to be. Since capital had monopoly pricing power, the fruits of automation could be handed out as stock dividends. Wages stagnated for the last 40 years but, stock dividends did very well.
                  Here is a graph of worker compensation and productivity.

                  Here is CEO pay, https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=h...FBC752.png&f=1
                  Not to be left out, the State put the squeeze on the worker also. The State knows what price inflation is. Here is a graph of postage costs.


                  The worker has no real bargaining power. Prices continue to rise. A corporation is a money making enterprise. A FAMILY IS NOT. Finance depends on ever-growing credit. It barely recognises that it requires an ever-growing demand in consumption and, an ever-growing increase in the consuming population. Wages are stagnant and prices have risen. Lacking the credit demand from the consumer-producer, the State has stepped in with enormous and growing credit demands. FED GOV has hit $22 trillion. Since the State is a non-producer and, the taxpayer is tapped out, State debt won't be repaid.

                  The worker was deprived of the price-reduction benefits from automation but, he was displaced from his job by computer driven machinery. In the '40s, 44% of Americans worked on the farm. Automation reduced this to a present day number of 1%. People moved to manufacturing. Now, they are being displaced from manufacturing. Where will they go?
                  At the same time, the Industrial Revolution is working it's way up the "ability ladder". White collar jobs are now disappearing.

                  "Kai-Fu Lee, now chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, believes that about half of all jobs will disappear over the next decade and be replaced with AI "
                  "next generation of robots in the fastest period of disruption in history.

                  "AI, at the same time, will be a replacement for blue collar and white collar jobs," said Lee, a renowned Chinese technologist and investor who held positions at Apple and Microsoft in addition to Alphabet's Google. But white collar jobs will go first, he warned."
                  ""The white collar jobs are easier to take because they're pure a quantitative analytical process. Reporters, traders, telemarketing, telesales, customer service, [and] analysts, there can all be replaced by a software," he explained on "Squawk Box." "To do blue collar, some of work requires hand-eye coordination, things that machines are not yet good enough to do."
                  "Lee said that while economic growth "will go dramatically up because AI can do so many things so much more faster" than humans"

                  Do you see the fatal flaw? Economic growth may potentially
                  go way up but, who is going to consume the results?
                  Rust Belt Lost More White Collar Jobs than Factory Positions | Money
                  time.com

                  Currently the military (State) is doing all the consumption because, it never intends to repay what to takes. Just how long can this go on?
                  Last edited by Danny B; 12-16-2018, 06:29 PM. Reason: correction

                  Comment


                  • Definitely not pumped into wages for the producer.
                    "Arguments over how, or even if, the trillions spent by policymakers helped the global economy recover will rage for years to come. But as central banks step back, the initial view is that the purchases worked "
                    Poverty, suicide and deaths of despair are WAY up. QE worked for the rich only. NO mention of rising debt service costs and falling population. This could possibly work with eternal ZIRP,,, highly doubtful. Did you know that in previous ages, topical beauty products included lead, mercury, arsenic ad radium? ZIRP is much like that.Naw, couldn't happen.Obviously, just statistical noise.The standard of living is fast falling. THIS is supposed to pacify the masses.
                    "Proponents of central bank stimulus operations take a sanguine view."
                    No kidding, They are next to the free money tap.NOPE, I give it about 2 years.Notice that wages are never mentioned.The State and ZIRP got rid of any kind of discipline.They can't EVER let off the gas pedalThe short-term goal of saving the banks has become a full-time obsession is it all slowly erodes away. Nope, that was the intention, NOT the result.
                    "Trillions flowed into risky stocks, bonds, corporate Credit, EM assets and derivative structures believing that these fund shares were a liquid store of (nominal) value. "
                    The State facilitated the creation of mega tons on new pixelated money in the belief that much of it would flow into GOV bonds.
                    ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
                    NOT, spectacularly,,, not yet. Do tell?I doubt that the Chinese system can survive a 20% contraction.
                    December 13 – Financial Times (Chris Giles and Claire Jones): “When the European Central Bank switches off its money-printing press at the t...


                    John Rubino expects GOV to start massive money printing to save the system

                    Comment


                    • The default wolf is growling at the door.

                      Here is a good article on pensions.
                      No kidding, they ignored human nature.
                      Here is the embedded vid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_br3uMudQSM&t=271s
                      "research conducted by the Pew Charitable Trusts shows a $1.4 trillion shortfall between state pension assets and guarantees to employees."

                      Jim Willie has lots of news, https://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/jim-willie/

                      Should have bought gold.

                      Nope, they're not desperate.
                      Comparative bubbles, https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...612_bubble.jpg
                      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
                      Last edited by Danny B; 12-17-2018, 03:53 AM. Reason: mistock

                      Comment


                      • Confidnce is slowly shifting, it will speed up

                        The markets are going down and, greed is slowly turning to fear. The problems of Italy, France and Britain are dragging down European markets.
                        Rense, Nation Heads To Shutdown Friday - Schumer, Dems Refuse
                        To Fund Border Wall - Trump Promises To Shut Government

                        Remember, both the ECB and FED have meetings in December. Volatility is picking up even more.
                        "The Bond Market Has Frozen: For The First Month Since 2008, Not A Single Junk Bond Prices"
                        "dramatic drop in loan prices, a record outflow from loan funds, and a general collapse in investor sentiment that was euphoric as recently as the start of October, the wheels had come off the loan market which was on the verge of freezing after we got the first hung bridge loan in years, after Wells Fargo and Barclays took the rare step of keeping a $415 million leveraged loan on their books after failing to sell it to investors."
                        Take a look at the graph AND keep in mind that the credit bubble MUST grow. So, $trillions are stuck in bank portfolios. There are trillions that MUST roll over.
                        "The two banks now "plan" to wait until January - i.e., hope that yield chasing desperation returns - to offload the loan"
                        The banks are waiting and hoping for a change in sentiment and confidence.


                        Yup, sentiment and confidence.


                        The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act was what really got the ball rolling as far as the banks really screwing us. Only one democrat voted for it. All the republicans did. Slick Willie signed it.
                        So, don't have a family.


                        When the ECB printed money to bail out Greece, the money bounced back from the border of Greece and, landed in German banks. Austerity has never worked but, that didn't stop Merkel and Schauble.

                        What the NYC courts would never do, the Malaysian courts are planning to do.

                        You're going to hear more and more about "haircuts"

                        He sells gold.


                        Is this just Kabuki theatre?

                        Churchill " If Germany trades in the next 50 years, WW I will have been for nothing."
                        Pox Americana can't really prevail in a hot war with China and Russia. The new weapons are too devastating and nobody will prevail. Russia & Iran can cut off most of the world's oil, in an instant. Nobody wins. A billion die.
                        Page Not Found - Business Insider... "
                        Crime Does Pay. How? Italian Mafia Earned $167 Billion ...
                        gangstersinc.ning.com/.../crime-does-pay-how-italian


                        Nobody really knows if QE will stop in th near future. The landing will be chaotic no matter what.

                        Comment


                        • We are now in the very final stages of the most remarkable era of alchemy in the history of finance. This cycle started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed and had its death knell in 1971 when Nixon…


                          This upcoming FED meeting is crucial. Will the FED detonate the markets or, not? Keep in mind that ZIRP and QE have not fixed anything. Will they be abandoned? The markets are a very short step away from collapse.


                          The BIS fears that a very large segment of the debt market will just disappear. Keep in mind that an object or asset is only worth what somebody else will pay you for it,,,, be it a tulip bulb or a collateralised debt swap.


                          A frozen debt market can be considered a "stranded asset"

                          Comment


                          • DTCC and the freeze up of the clearing system

                            I wrote about custodial risk. Stocks and other instruments are cleared at / by DTCC. Most are held in the name of Cede & Company, Armstrong clearly differentiated on risk depending if certificates are held in the street name OR, held by the broker in the name of Cede & co. If they are held by the broker and, are not in the street name, they are sucked up to satisfy the liabilities of the broker. So, when markets go down, individual investors and funds get a margin call to supply new cash to offset the fall in value of the asset. If they can't meet the margin call, the broker liquidates their stocks. BUT, if the market is falling, he may not be able to sell anything.

                            Whether you hold stocks or not, you should read this wiki page. Remember, your stocks are held in the name of 'Cede & Company. The various subsidiaries of DTCC also hold European and English assets. It is for the most part, just a recording service. They put everything in the name of Cede & co for the ease of transfer.
                            DTCC does all the clearing.
                            The BIS warns that the clearing system is going to freeze up.


                            Armstrong warned that the dollar will rise until it breaks the emerging markets.
                            The most crowded trade right now is,,,, the U.S. dollar.
                            ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

                            Remember, when investors go to cash, this removes liquidity from the credit markets.
                            When investors ran away from Italian debt, the ECB had to make up the difference.



                            What about my derivatives based on a rise in oil?

                            The corporate bond market is exceedingly ugly. The sovereign bond market is a disaster.


                            No more families AND, no more free money to speculators.

                            That's great news.

                            Comment


                            • DTCC and the reset,,, custodial risk

                              The DTCC handles many millions of trades every day. This couldn't be done if every asset was in an individual. name. So, it is all put in the name of Cede & Company. The brokerages and banks keep track of who owns what. The DTCC is just a clearing company. As I just posted, the BIS is predicting a meltdown of clearing.

                              Before the mortgage meltdown, RE transfers were all recorded in the MERS system. When the meltdown hit, the MERS system completely puked. A friend of mine lived in her house for 7 years without making a house payment. Nobody knew who owned the house or the loan. Loans had been sliced & diced (tranches) so much that it took years to straighten it out.

                              " four biggest Wall Street Banks holding at 6/30/2018 $ 188.58 TRILLION of nominal derivatives of which $ 142.23 TRILLION are interest rate contracts? FDIC reports two, JPM and Citibank, have $ 36.8 TRILLION of custodial assets. Further, OCC.GOV reports 99.4% of the nominal derivative obligations of these four banks are held for trading"
                              OK, what happens to all these derivatives in the event of a freeze up of clearing? Even the IMF has come out and said that we are going to have a global reset.

                              In a hypothetical bail-in
                              QUESTION: I have been a reader for 10+ year, Socrates subs and reg for Orlando WEC. Thank you and as a Veteran, I admire your courage and service. Ques: Under Dodd-Franks & Bail-In & Bankruptcy Priority; and, due to the Global Debt Crisis, is there a Custodial Risk for Investors a) who are “beneficial owners” (paid […]


                              So, derivatives and government securities have no paper trail. These are the 2 big items that will freeze up. You can bet that a lot of people are going to get a big haircut.
                              Every ounce of physical gold is "held" by <100> people. When paper gold blows up, 99 people will get screwed. The CBs started buying gold a few years ago after having failed to drive gold out of all consideration of being a wealth instrument. This signifies that they see gold to be an excellent asset.

                              Comment


                              • Panic out of stocks and, into bonds

                                Well, Powell did it. He hiked the interest rate. The fallout will be pretty bad.
                                Crunch time for Jerome Powell and the Fed... Stocks plunge after Powell announces a rate hike this afternoon...

                                The article mentions that the GDP is up.....consumption spending plus investment spending plus government spending equal gdp. GOV just hiked military spending to $750 billion. Presto,,, the GDP goes up. It also mentioned that unemployment is at 3.7%. The 92.6 million of working age who are not in the labor force have NO effect on the economy.


                                Yeah right,,, 2 more increases and every lemonade stand in the country will shut down.

                                “The truth is that the leaders at the Fed have a firmer understanding of what’s really going on in the economy than they allude to publicly”.



                                Buy more popcorn.

                                Make it long-term please.




                                Research shows that whites use guns for suicide and blacks use guns for murder.

                                Putin Gives Trump 160 Terabytes Of Communication Intercepts ...
                                https://americaoutloud.com/putin-giv...ication-interc...

                                A Complete Guide to All 17 (Known) Trump and Russia Investigations ...
                                The investigation into Russian interference and Donald Trump has sprung so many offshoots, it's hard to keep track. Here's a comprehensive list. It's long.
                                2018 was chaotic more than anything else, and that chaos will give rise to mayhem in 2019. It is scary because we've never seen anything remotely like it.

                                Comment

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