Economic pressures

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/us-bank-reserves-10-eu-bank-reserves-1/

This is an excellent article that goes into great detail at explaining reserve requirements. But the fact still remains; banks can fudge ALL the numbers when they are audited. They routinely borrow from the overnight window at the FED. Bribing an auditor is an old tradition.

Here is a long, detailed article on how the government causes inflation. Left out is the explanation of WHY the government causes inflation. The State is a non-producer that has the guns, printing press, lawbooks and, taxing authority. A concentration of power attracts a concentration of corruption. What else do you expect?

https://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com/how-government-causes-inflation/#more-2868

https://gainspainscapital.com/2018/11/29/10386/

https://deviantinvestor.com/10474/the-approaching-storm/

Armstrong, "They never seem to simply correlate this with economics. Now we have more than 47,000 Americans committed suicide in 2017, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
This is only the number of people who commit fast suicide. Millions more take drugs that they know will eventually kill them.
Do an image search for crocodile + drug.


Draghi and Salvini. Imagine to locomotives on the same track at high speed. This will blow out Italian debt and crash their bond market.


AND
Progressives Zero In On Exit Tax On Illinois Wealth | Wirepoints

https://www.wirepoints.com/progressives-zero-in-on-exit-tax-on-illinois-wealth/

Nov 9, 2018 - They've figured out a way to tax wealthy folks trying to flee Illinois


No kidding. $15 trillion lost in October alone.

The CBs pumped hot money into the banks. They converted this hot money into houses. Now, the working class can't compete with the speculative class.

A ***** can't be particular. Moral collapse brings total collapse.

https://dailyreckoning.com/we-are-living-with-maximum-uncertainty/

[Danny B]

Italy, Hopium & LIBOR

The next meeting of the FED is December 18-19.
The next meeting of the ECB is;
Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt
13/12/2018
Press conference following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt
Draghi, "The central bank has been treading a cautious path in recent months, seeking to start winding down its EUR2.6 trillion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing or QE, without spooking international investors. "
"Speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels, Mr. Draghi confirmed that the ECB would likely phase out QE after next month. The decision is likely to be formalized at the ECB's next policy meeting on Dec. 13."
"Our policy had disastrous consequences? Yes, it created 9.5 million jobs in a few years," Mr. Draghi said."

Armstrong 2016 "Our models have been targeting 2018 for the last 30 years as the first potential year for a monetary crisis and reform."
"The most likely course of action has not changed. When confidence in government collapses among the GENERAL MASS PUBLIC, everything will breakout."
"The days of searching for some guru who is never wrong from an opinion perspective are gone and only fools seek such ideals. We are heading into the eye of a financial storm that will topple governments. The future is being constructed before our eyes if we wake up and just look. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/constructing-a-future/

Italy wants to take the tried-and-true course of defaulting. Since they don't print their own currency, they have to default by way of the bond market. Investors will be reading the tea leaves leading up to the December meeting of the ECB. They are already starting to dump Italian debt.
AT THE SAME TIME, they must try to guess what the FED open market committee will do about U.S. interest rates. Powell said that we are close to the neutral rate, NOT, at the neutral rate. This is all hogwash anyway. A so-called neutral interest rate depends on dozens of outside factors.
I've already posted links showing that the interest rate is greatly affected by the birth rate. Armstrong already mentioned that December might bring some kind of big reversal.
So, how are the markets reacting to all this news?

London Inter Bank Overnight lending Rate. LIBOR
"While stocks, and with a notable delay bonds, were happy to run with Powell's dovish reversal on Wednesday, one key market - arguably the most important one for financial conditions when it comes to the broader economy - has refused to respond.

Earlier today, instead of reacting to what has been interpreted as the Fed Chair's "dovish repricing" of future rate hike expectations, 3 month USD Libor jumped over 3 basis points to 2.73813%, the highest level in more than ten years."
The banks have a good idea of what is going on with their competitors.
"The reason why rising Libor remains a major risk to financial conditions, is because as the table below shows, its footprint can be found everywhere, from OTC interest rate swaps, to leveraged loans - considered by many as the locus of the next credit crisis - to retail mortgages, to complex securitizations. According to the TBAC, just about $200 trillion in instruments are exposed to Libor's interest rate footprint."

"Most affected by this ongoing rise may be the bond market, which has also been hit with the double whammy of tumbling oil, which earlier today dipped below $50/barrel, a price widely seen as a "red-line" for junk bond investors, below which some may sell their exposure indiscriminately. And since energy is one of the largest components of the junk bond index, it is only a matter of time before contagion spread from oil, through highly leveraged energy producers to the rest of the market."

Putin calls for $60 oil. This pretty much puts a ceiling on price. Remember that oil hit $147 in 2008. That certainly put a whammy on the economy.

"In any case, the ongoing rise in Libor which absent a reversal soon will result in even tighter financial conditions and higher interest expense on trillions in floating rate debt, Bloomberg's Alex Harris notes that those traders who took the "dovish" Powell at his word, "
Powell said MAYBE.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-29/what-easing-libor-surges-most-8-months-squeezing-199-trillion-credit

So, the bankers refused to rev up the money machines. They aren't buying "hopium". Italian debt is 130% of GDP. The meeting is next month.

Central bank owns 18% of Italian government debt - Geotrendlines

https://geotrendlines.com/central-bank-owns-18-of-italian-government-debt/

Mar 11, 2018 - Back in 1990, about 70% of the Italian government debt was financed by private investors, today it is less than 10%.
France holds a LOT of Italian debt.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fa74e4cb3-a7a8-48f8-8ab6-059087b5944b.jpg?source=Alphaville

The planned collapse of Italian debt is going to take out quite a few banks around Europe.
Armstrong strongly recommended that Europeans get an American bank account.

[Danny B]

https://www.opendemocracy.net/transformation/thomas-h-greco-jr/money-debt-and-end-of-growth-imperative

"THE FISCAL CONSEQUENCES OF SHRINKING POPULATIONS
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
23
Appendix 1. The Impact of Population on Economic Growth The size of the labor force is one of the main determinants of economic output. For example, in the basic Solow Growth Model, output depends on the evolution of the capital stock (K), labor (L), and technological progress (E). The steady-state, long-run growth rate of output is directly proportional to the growth rate of the labor force (Box). "

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1521.pdf

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/07/japan-mystery-low-birth-rate/534291/

"There is no question but that the populations of most European countries will decline in the next generation, and in the cases of Germany and Russia, the decline will be dramatic. In fact, the entire global population explosion is ending. In virtually all societies, from the poorest to the wealthiest, the birthrate among women has been declining. In order to maintain population stability, the birthrate must remain at 2.1 births per woman. "
"The process is essentially irreversible. It is primarily a matter of urbanization. In agricultural and low-level industrial societies, children are a productive asset. Children can be put to work at the age of 6 doing agricultural work or simple workshop labor. Children become a source of income, and the more you have the better."
"In a mature urban society, the economic value of children declines. In fact, children turn from instruments of production into objects of massive consumption."
"Children cost a tremendous amount of money with limited return, if any, for parents. Thus, people have fewer children. Birth control merely provided the means for what was an economic necessity. "

"hat means that throughout the history of modern industrialism and capitalism, there has always been a surplus of labor. There has also been a shortage of capital in the sense that capital was more expensive than labor by equivalent quanta, and given the constant production of more humans, supply tended to depress the price of labor."
For the first time in 500 years, this situation is reversing itself.
"The argument I am making here is that population decline will significantly transform the functioning of economies"

"Perhaps the most important change will be that where for the past 500 years bankers and financiers have held the upper hand, in a labor-scarce society having pools of labor to broker will be the key. "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/02/17/population-decline-and-the-great-economic-reversal/#31af6490698e

https://qz.com/1187819/country-ranking-worlds-fastest-shrinking-countries-are-in-eastern-europe/

Their lost decade commenced in 1992.
"At the same time the fertility rates of some immigrant groups, notably Latinos, have been dropping rapidly and approaching those of other Americans. This is despite the fact that as many as 40% of women would like to have more children; they simply lack the adequate housing, economic wherewithal and spousal support to make it happen."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2017/02/01/death-spiral-demographics-the-countries-shrinking-the-fastest/#76fb39d5b83c

There really is no solution to the falling birth rate.
At the same time, there is no financial remedy to the falling birth rate that could possibly rescue the debt-money system.

[Danny B]

Well, what else do you expect a parasite to do?

https://acting-man.com/?p=53838

Bill Gross Says Bond Bear Market Has Arrived After a 35-Year Run
U.S. Births Dip To 30-Year Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
15 drastic effects.

https://guff.com/15-drastic-effects-of-population-decline

[Danny B]

No blinking in the FED and Italy,,,French taxes,,,Corporate debt smoking

The cheerleaders are desperately trying to keep the party going.
They said that the FED "blinked". No such thing. He said "we'll see."
This isn't the first time for this kind of thing.
Paul Volcker fought 10 percent annual inflation rates with contractionary monetary policy. He courageously doubled the fed funds rate from 10.25 percent to 20 percent in March 1980. June 1983: Inflation falls to 2.5 percent, after peaking at 14.6 percent just three years earlier.

Italy, When you read the article, it is a different story.
"ready to back down on their hard-line deficit target demands, newspaper Il Messaggero reported"
So, some newspaper said that maybe they would back down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-12-03/italy-may-give-ground-on-deficit-premier-takes-negotiator-role

"Messaggero reported, without saying where it obtained the information"
They are trying to buy time for the hedge funds to dump Italian debt without starting a panic.

Bloomberg again

Look at this graph. Enormous quantities mature in the next 2 years.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1069211748182491137/photo/1

Yep, corporate debt is soon to start smoldering,,,,, soon to burst into flames.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-02/dimartino-booth-fraying-feds-fragile-narrative

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2018/12/02/tick-tock-4/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/census-confirms-63-percent-of-non-citizens-on-welfare-4-6-million-households

https://techcrunch.com/2013/01/26/america-has-hit-peak-jobs/

Paris protests: Emmanuel Macron orders PM to hold talks with 'yellow ...
https://www.independent.co.uk

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-03/there-suddenly-far-bigger-european-problem-brexit-or-italy

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-next-french-revolution-is-it-beginning/

Parallels to 2008, http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-new...t-now_11302018

https://gainspainscapital.com/2018/11/30/forget-the-fed-the-everything-bubble-has-gone-corporate-and-its-bursting/

The ECB spent EUR 2.6 trillion and created 9.6 million jobs.
The FED created about 4.1 trillion for the State and, created several million jobs. $280 billion was lost to
"This Fed Policy Enabled the Fracking Industry's $280 Billion Loss"
China has been exporting unemployment but, this won't go on much longer.
Walmart will soon deploy hundreds of robot janitors to clean stores, the retailer announced on Monday.
Any questions?

[Danny B]

Financials slipping,,,Timing prognosis

Reportedly, bank stocks are going down hard.
"All 67 stocks in the S&P Financials Index declined on Tuesday,"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-way-scarier-dow-plunging-600-points-184940081.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma

So, will the banks run out of money?

Bring your money here. We will take good care of it.
Macron the weenie is trying to prove how stupid he is.
Jean Claude Junker is trying to outdo him, https://capitalistexploits.at/2018/12/juncker-speaks/

"Long Pig" is back on the menu, https://rense.com/general96/evidence...annibalism.php
So, pass lots of new laws and fix it.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2018/12/02/economic-winter-and-the-coming-end-of-globalisation/

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/empty-words-fail-timeline/

When China sneezes, Australia catches a cold, https://sorendreier.com/one-million-...heir-own-home/

France is the highest on public social spending.

https://3lrofj3556kl9zu0p27yma51-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/social-spending-oecd-longrun.png

France is the next-to-highest on taxes. The working class is fed up with this.

https://capitalistexploits.at/2018/11/the-curious-case-of-western-europe-vs-eastern-europe/

[Danny B]

epigenetics.BBC Two - This World, No Sex Please, We're Japanese

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03fh0bg

As Japan faces a future which could see its population shrink by a third in just 40 years

https://twitter.com/wsj/status/984030863640932352

substance abuse, suicides and diabetes drove a rise in premature deaths in nearly half the country,

There is lots of speculation about the next recession on the net. There are lots of people talking about "post-scarcity" economics where everything will be free. The PTB don't have a chance of continuing the current system of looting the working class. Negative Epigenetic pressures will guarantee that the birth rate will fall and, the death rate will rise.
China is locking down the entire country under AI surveillance. Their fertility rate is only 1.5 People just don't want to bring children into a messed-up world.
Japanese sovereign debt is 260% of gdp. 80% is the death cross. As long as the Japanese GOV pumps in boatloads of money, things keep going,,, after a fashion. Almost all State are going to find themselves in a similar position. In December, we will find out of the ECB is going to shut off the printing press.
The FED has plans to do this too. Capital flight is temporarily holding up U.S. markets. This won't go on forever. As the demographic crash gets worse, the Central Banks will be under constant pressure to print and subsidise retirees. As we see in Japan, and now, Europe, this can only be done with freshly printed money. It becomes impossible to attract private bond buyers when the State has a runaway printing press.

A bid part of epigenetic pressure is related to confidence. Confidence is rapidly being lost.
"In late 2018, an increasing number of Americans believe that an economic downturn is coming, and they are taking actions consistent with that belief. As a result, they are actually helping to produce the result that they fear. "
The Psychological Bubble That Has Been Propping Up The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Implode
So, what will be the low point of this feedback loop?

[Danny B]

Maybe we should stop spending on wars.We can't reduce war spending

"Wealth-to-GDP is long-term stable and, as you can see in Exhibit 4 below, the US long-term mean value is around 380%; i.e. total US household wealth is on average about 3.8 times US GDP. The mean value varies somewhat from country to country, but it is long-term stable everywhere. Think of the ratio as a measure of capital efficiency"
"Wealth simply cannot outgrow GDP (or vice versa) in the long run. The two must grow hand-in-hand longer term. I have seen US data going back about 150 years, and every time wealth-to-GDP has deviated meaningfully from 380%, it has mean-reverted. Every single time!"

"As you can see from Exhibit 4, US wealth-to-GDP now exceeds 500%; i.e. it must drop 25-30% to re-establish the long-term mean value. That can happen in two ways. Either GDP grows faster than wealth for an extended period of time, or 25-30% of all US household wealth is destroyed."
"The three most important contributors to wealth in society are property, bonds and equities (in that order)."
Feces-for-brains doesn't list a single thing that produces tangible wealth
"but the fact that populism is on the rise worldwide does worry me. What is that going to lead to?"
We can't possibly have the creators of tangible wealth actually receiving the benefits.The rescue of the banks is what killed the pension plans.

https://www.arpinvestments.com/arl/the-art-of-defaulting

backed by the U.S. governmentAbout that upcoming sovereign bond default,,,FRED, 96 million Americans are not in the labor force.
"That leaves cyclical growth as the only remaining component. Yet with the U.S. unemployment rate already down to 3.7%, the likelihood of substantial further declines is limited. Even pushing the unemployment rate down to 1% over the coming 4 year period would add just 0.7% annually to economic growth."
Everybody keeps harping on the unemployment rate as if it were a gold-plated enumeration of all the people not being productive.,

The Phillips curve is an economic concept developed by A. W. Phillips stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment.How can he be smart and stupid at the same time?

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc181128/

Both these articles have some good information,,, and some ripe BS also.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/do-coins-reveal-the-futility-of-our-times/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/will-the-2020-presidential-election-be-the-most-violent-in-american-history/

More bumps in the road.



Use it on the politicians.

Stock Market Crash: The Dow Has Fallen Nearly 2,500 Points And FAANG Stocks Have Lost A TRILLION Dollars In Value
Predictions from Saxo Bank.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-04/time-pay-piper-saxo-banks-10-outrageous-predictions-2019

[Danny B]

Market crash,,, climate crash

Since everything is connected, I have to veer off to the climate.
Armstrong, "Furthermore, couldn't it be that the promoters of global warming (IPCC et al) actually know that CO2 is NOT the problem but by feeding us the propaganda, they actually catch two flies in one blow: increased taxes and reduction of the population because the majority will not be prepared for the upcoming cold/famine."
"I was at the White House dinner and was seated at a table of ten with the heads of environmental groups. I cannot get my head around how these people think. They openly admitted that this was all about reducing population growth and how to frustrate it with wetlands to Global Warming these days. They DO NOT believe in Global Warming or CO2. They are using this to reduce the population. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/global-warming-enthusiasts-are-really-believe-the-malthusian-trap-modern-witch-doctor-analysis/

More from Armstrong, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/c...-news/climate/

OK, the warmers actually want to drastically reduce population AND make a buck while doing so.
Climate change: $4 trillion carbon tax is needed to save humanity from ...
https://www.independent.co.uk/.../cl...-save-humanity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm9wxpLnd30&t=56s

What happens in the cities when the food supply shrinks? In South Africa, hail destroyed a forest and killed livestock.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLAdgO4obSE

Here is an incomplete map of crop losses.

http://iceagefarmer.com/map/

About 10 years ago, True News warned that we would see the first signs of an Ice Age in the winter of 2018--2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbVtDa3DqRQ&t=116s

The old weather patterns have changed so much that it is hard to quantify global warming / cooling.

Crippled Atlantic currents triggered ice age climate change | Science ...

https://www.sciencemag.org/.../crippled-atlantic-currents-triggered-ice-age-climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/.../arable-land-soil-food-security-shortage

Dec 2, 2015
Climate change is going to radically shift weather patterns. Anthropogenic global warming is just a scam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ&t=49s

So, what happens when the sovereign bond markets crashes,,, fracking blows up,,,crop losses get worse? How bad will the depression be?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNSXWkApxU8&t=100s

Remember, we blew up the Manmade River Project

[Danny B]

Ice age,, solar flares,,oil vs banks

Fossil fuel burning 'postponing next ice age' | Environment | The ...

https://www.theguardian.com/.../2016/.../fossil-fuel-burning-postponing-next-ice-age

Ice age delayed by humans... by 100,000 years - CNN - CNN.com

https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/14/world/ice-age-postponed/index.html

The average length of a inter-glacial period is about 11,000 years. We are in the Holocene and, it has been warm for about 13,000 years.
Volcanic event caused ice age during Jurassic Period -- ScienceDaily

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/12/151211124428.htm

Well, volcanism is definitely on the rise. Suspicious Observers say that we are statistically due for a very large eruption. Dunno.
In addition to that, Earth is due for a X-45 flare (Carrington) We are close to due for a X-60 flare also.
Then, there are super-flares X-100,000.
"Surprisingly, we (they) found 365 superflares on 148 solar type stars (G-type main sequence stars)"

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/final_shibata_SWW_2015.pdf

Buy more popcorn, the sun will cook it for you.

Jim Willie, "the high risk to Wall Street banks from the declining crude oil price whereby the big banks have credit exposure to the suicidal shale sector,"

https://mises.org/library/ben-bernanke-was-incredibly-uncannily-wrong

[Danny B]

Taxes and corruption


"The French rebellion over taxes on fuel is a Global Warming Tax. So Macron backed off of the fuel tax. To show this is just an excuse for Global Warming and the real objective is to grab more money, "
"There is something seriously wrong with these people. They claim that not even having a car contributes to only 2.4% reduction in CO2. The biggest decrease in CO2 is to stop having children which would reduce it by 58.6%."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/having-children-causes-global-warming-as-the-leading-cause-of-58-6/

California has the highest personal tax rate in the country. Now, they want to tax space travel by the mile AND texting.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/california-to-tax-texting-from-your-phone/

That's called , "grasping at straws".

2 kinds of debt;
"The poster child for all this lately is GE, who spent $40 billion on stock buybacks between 2015 through 2017 on shares that have declined in value 75% since. The company is now has a tangible net worth at negative $48 Billion."

https://medium.com/@markjeftovic/the-other-two-kinds-of-debt-85c4fbf3f2bb

China lockdown, "The Chinese government appears to be stepping up its efforts to fully control all Chinese companies through either arrest or restriction of movement for their leaders."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-06/china-executives-disappear-or-get-arrested-one-one

May seems to think that she is a reincarnation of Thatcher, "May is reportedly still insisting that the only options on the table are "no deal", "her deal" or "no Brexit".

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-06/may-refuses-delay-vote-brexit-deal-despite-near-certain-defeat

Netanyahooo is under investigation for corruption and, there have been calls for his resignation. NO problem,,, he'll just start a war with Lebanon to distract people.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201812061070451627-northern-shield-lebanon-territory/

https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/msm-is-getting-weirder-more-frantic-and-more-desperate-by-the-day-3b220ea0bb97

[Danny B]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-replaces-merkel/

Keep in mind that Germany has a $1 trillion account surplus. The rest of the EU group has a $1 trillion account deficit. Call me suspicious but, when the crash & burn comes, I suspect that Germany will get the shaft. Versailles Deux

Armstrong pooh-poohs the idea of a Malthusian future. There is no need to reduce population.
I have never seen him mention; resource depletion, forced extinction of animals, pollution (China spends 15% of their GDP to counter pollution), stagnant wages for 40 years, habitat loss for everything except humans. "31 million acres for farmland has been developed since 1982."
"Earth has lost a third of arable land in past 40 years, scientists say "



Stocks and bonds are not wealth. They are calls on wealth. Tangible wealth comes out of the air, water and ground. The sun gives us usable energy.
List of 17 Scarce Resources the World Is Running Out of - Ranker
None of this matter to Armstrong. He looks at history and sees,, cycles and markets. How could he possibly have a baseline for a society that has widely available birth control? Same for digital currency. Same for runaway automation. He has no baseline for an economy that has instant transfer of capital but, very little mobility of labor. He has no baseline for a world that can bring total destruction on itself.
He has no baseline for an economy that depends on oil. He has no baseline for an economy that depends HEAVILY on electricity for everything but, is headed into a time of violent solar flux with a weakening and flipping magnetosphere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTaNoiC-buI

[Danny B]

European austerity,,,Why Civilizations Fail

Well, Macron is really a master of bad timing. Public strikes are a national past time in France but, this one is growing and spreading.

With austerity, ALL bets are off.
German Police Shut Down Concert Due to Mass Nazi Salute - Sputnik

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2018/12/macron-heralds-the-end-of-the-union/

Here is a chart of the 30 year treasury bond. It has definitely broken out.

https://3lrofj3556kl9zu0p27yma51-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/fut_chart-2.png

https://capitalistexploits.at/2018/12/while-everyones-focused-on-yield-curve-inversion-this-is-happening/

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114604/every-bubble-search-pin

https://medium.com/vandal-press/3-reasons-why-america-is-about-to-end-138b1e18bcf4

Maybe
Putin can't get Russians to make a clean break with the dollar. Trump is helping out.
We can always hope.

RIGHT, but they're going to back down on the budget.

Compensation of employees as a percentage of the GDP.

https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2018/compensation-employees12-18.jpg

So, we had wage deflation at the same time that we had price inflation. We just couldn't afford to keep the economy going. The State stepped in to buy up enough stuff to make up the difference. The State has too much debt and bond buyers are backing off. Wages had their steepest decline after the dotcom crash when the FED inflated everything out of reach. As purchasing power diminished, the CB had to pump in ever-increasing amounts of liquidity to hold back the defaults. Powell has turned that spigot down or off. He wants to wring some of the excesses out of the system. He also wants to raise rates so that he can lower them in the next crisis. He wants ammunition to fight the recession that he will eventually cause.

[Danny B]

People = the economy,,,, bubble inflating

"High income nations saw peak total energy consumption in 2007 and are still below that peak almost decade later."
"Annual 0 to 64yr/old population growth among the consumer nations double peaked at +38 million. That was annually 38 million more potential employees, homebuyers, consumers, tax payers, etc. By 2008, annual growth was down to 20 million, and as of 2018 annual population growth of those aged 0 to 64 is just 5 million."
The banks (effectively) cut back our earnings by front-running everything we buy,,,,using our savings OR, wet-ink money. There is no possibility of growing the economy while the population is shrinking. Maybe the Greens want population reduction but, the finance system can't survive it.

"Note the potential workforce is growing at just one quarter the peak. But worse still, the pace is now less than half that of 2008...and by mid 2020's, the potential workforce will begin outright shrinking (and yes, the UN data includes and relies upon ongoing immigration just to maintain the below curves...absent that, the falloff is much sooner and steeper)."
The mantra is that; we need immigration. Bringing in 3rd world garbage with no skills means that they won't be productive and must be supported by the State for their whole lives. This implies a belief that the sovereign bond market will grow forever. It is already growing faster than exponentially. So, the State will have to support them cradle-to-grave.

But, the way that automation is growing, there will be many more millions of native born who will join them. Finance is focused on; a continuing supply of warm bodies to grow consumption.
Side note, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...-visa-workers/
"the childbearing population peaked about 2010 and is now falling. "
"Again, despite all the debt, central bank "support", and interest rate cuts...energy consumption (and more broadly consumption, period) is tracking the changing population...down."
The CBs are "pushing on a string"

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/12/another-dayanother-view-of-energy-and.html

"2011 to present is the period with the greatest wealth creation growth in the nations history, yet during this period of economic strength, growth in federal tax receipts has been consistently decelerating...and even prior to the Trump tax cuts had already turned negative. Since the tax cuts, tax receipts are collapsing while federal spending is surging...hallmarks of what typically takes place during a recession, not the greatest wealth creation in this nations history. "
That was debt creation, NOT wealth creation.
"The already swollen issuance of public (marketable) debt since 2007 is about to move from a steep angle to an exploding vertical upward trajectory"

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/12/surging-federal-expenditures-collapsing.html

The bubble has a lot of leaks and, needs constant pumping. Trump and Powell are trying to make a soft landing. It's never been done before.
" Total Treasuries and Agency Securities ended the quarter at a record $26.439 TN (up $1.450TN y-o-y), or 128% of GDP."
80% is the death cross.
"Debt Securities ended Q3 at 215% of GDP, up from 200% and 157% to end 2007 and 1999. Equities Securities increased nominal $2.269 TN during Q3 to a record $50.602 TN (one-year growth $5.493TN). Equities Securities ended the quarter at a record 245% of GDP versus 172% at the end of 2007"
None dare call it a bubble.

https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2018/12/weekly-commentary-q3-2018-z1-and-cycle.html

11 companies that control everything that you buy, https://wikibuy.com/blog/11-companie...g-904b28425120
The British are out to prove that American politicians don't have a lock on stupidity.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201812071070483243-ireland-sinn-fein-famine/

Business Insider Magazine, Future of Fintech: How Fintech Is Taking Over The World and What Comes Next.
Finance produces not a single tangible thing out side of paper bills. In their hermetically sealed little minds, tangible objects don't matter.
Japan is shrinking and has a head start on America.

https://www.sciencealert.com/millions-of-japanese-homes-are-being-given-away-for-free

Congress is a big part of the deep state. Evidently, there is a problem with that arrangement.

https://theantimedia.com/rand-paul-deep-state-trying-run-congress

Then, we get word from Berzezinski on how things are supposed to be.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/02/22/msnbcs_brzezinski_trump_thinks_he_can_control_exactly_what_people_think_but_thats_our_job.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=mixi&utm_campaign=realclearpolitics

[Danny B]

Political wars bringing down the economy

Trump has a long way to go. Know they enemy.

https://www.rt.com/usa/445807-us-stays-afghanistan-9-11/

https://www.globalresearch.ca/heroin-dealer-in-chief-afghanistan-source-of-90-of-the-worlds-heroin/5502813

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2009/dec/13/drug-money-banks-saved-un-cfief-claims

https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/GPC1023181.png

Europe is doing equally bad.

https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/GPC1023182.png

https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-con...GPC1023183.png
If you compare the breakouts and reversals, the U.S. is doing much better. That is all it takes to attract capital.
Europe is too socialist and China is too exuberant (gambling). China knew that their export economy model would come to an end. They wanted to change to a domestic consumption model. China's EXCESS steel production capacity is equal to the total capacity of Europe and America combined. How are they ever going to absorb all their productivity into domestic consumption when their workforce shrinks by 1 million a year?

https://gainspainscapital.com/2018/12/09/the-everything-bubble-has-burst/

Teresa May figured that she would just shove a bad Brexit down the throats of Parliament and the people. Armstrong's model did NOT show any changes for Dec. 11. Sure enough, the votes is postponed. Here is a great Pic of May with a "Brexit" gun in her mouth.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/brexit-vote-postponed/

So, while Britain doesn't share the Euro currency, the Pound is going down also, due to the Brexit turmoil. The British banks want unfettered access to European capital markets and May is too stupid to avoid painting herself into a corner.

As China goes down, OZ falls apart.
"Growth had been looking good recently. Economists were optimistic. But when the ABS put out the official figures they were shocked. This matters to all of us. It puts Australia deeper and deeper into our emergency footing.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/is-australia-locked-in-a-downward-spiral/news-story/2e41fefa336e27179f662cec0a24711d

The article reflects an exercise in hopium.
Armstrong, "As I have warned, the next two years are going to be an outright political siege warfare. Far more damage will be done to the United States and the world economy in this desperate attempt for the Democrats to retake the White House in 2020."
This is a good article on a possible impeachment.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/the-coming-political-siege-warfare-of-2019/

Here is a good article on the Clinton Foundation by Armstrong. Keep in mind that a full-on war between the House and Senate will be very bad for the economy.
"The Clinton Foundation is the poster-child for political corruption and tax fraud. What we are about to witness is the start of a political war in the House before the handover to the Democrats in January.
If we look back on April 23, 2015, just two weeks after Hillary Clinton officially declared her presidential campaign, her staff sent out a message on the strategy to manipulate the Republicans into selecting the worse candidate.
Trump was absolutely certain to lose.She ignore the deplorables.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/clinton-foundation-to-be-investigated-at-last/

Armstrong did 7+ years of hard time in prison. You can't scare him or shut him up. He knows that everybody important in finance reads him.

The dirt that comes out of the Clinton investigation will essentially will essentially make the Dems pathologically toxic. The Dems will control the House of Representatives. The HOUSE is responsible for originating all spending bills. So, while America presently attracts a lot of capital inflows, will this continue during the siege of Washington D.C ?