Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Economic pressures

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Saudi Arabia’s state-funded think tank is looking into potential effects of the dissolution of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid US pressure over oil prices and investments withdrawal from...




    "The finish left U.S. oil down 20.6% from its Oct. 3 peak,"
    Also, General Electric has really hit the skids.

    "like the Emerging Market debt bust, with over $9 trillion on the line. But the focus here is on the Big US Bank Stock Index (BKX) breakdown, confirmed by the comedown in the crude oil price. The entire Wall Street banks are highly vulnerable to the oil price due to shale sector exposure. It signals the death of one or two major US banks. It signals the acceleration of the Systemic Lehman Event. The "
    GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"

    Comment


    • OF COURSE, this is all Trump's fault

      David Stockman is quite the pessimist AND, quite derogatory to Trump. He writes as if Trump has full control of D.C.. He writes ignoring that Trump inherited a $ 20 trillion deficit. He writes ignoring the fact that the finance community controls much of what comes out of D.C. He writes ignoring the fact that 96.2 million Americans are not in the labor force. You get the idea. Here is a long cite.

      Trump and the GOP deserve everlasting ignominy for literally ****-canning fiscal rectitude. So doing, they have completely abandoned the GOP's fundamental reason for being--- watch-dogging the US Treasury-
      Trump presidency: Namely, the fact that he and the Congressional GOP have spent 20-months literally desecrating every principal that the once and former party of fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets and minimal public debt ever stood for.

      To wit, a $1.2 trillion new borrowing requirement for the current fiscal year is fixing to slam hard upon the $600 billion of old debt the Fed will be dumping---along with hundreds of billions more of homeless treasury paper that will be on offer from carry trade speculators getting whacked by rapidly increasing repo rates and by foreign investors getting clipped by the rising dollar and prohibitive currency hedging costs.
      It was baked in the cake by ZIRP.

      Financial repression sure looked easy, of course, when our monetary central planners had their Big Fat Thumbs on the scales during the last 14 years during which they collectively scooped up $21 trillion of government bonds and other paper and salted it away on their cost free balance sheets.
      That is, these fools have so bludgeoned and distorted the bond markets that the latter have mutated into a coiled spring of instability. In hundreds of different ways, speculators have been buying on leverage what the central banks have been buying, and now that the latter--led by the Fed---are pivoting to QT, they will be selling what the central banks are selling in what will amount to a global margin call.

      That's the coiled spring that has been implanted in the bond markets by the foolish attempts of Keynesian central bankers to improve upon the natural growth propensity of market capitalism by systematically and deeply falsifying interest rates.

      So when that coiled spring of mis-pricing up-chucks the benchmark 10-year Treasury note toward the 4.00% marker, it will be all over except the shouting.
      They weren't trying to improve on natural growth. They were trying to rescue the banks that failed because manufacturing left the country.
      By that we mean the Everything Bubble will splatter in the casino, bringing on a fierce new onslaught of "restructuring" campaigns from the corporate C-suites as they desperately heave workers, inventories and impaired assets overboard---like they did in the fall and winter of 2008- 09---to appease the trading gods and rescue their immolating stock options.
      No rescue is possible.

      The outcome is otherwise known as "recession', Bubble Finance style. And once the recessionary red ink starts flowing on top of the already hideous Trumpite/GOP Fiscal Debauch, Washington's fiscal veins will be opened for the terminal blood-letting.
      Armstrong did mention a collapse of FED GOV bonds.
      Recently, all 16 branches of our Intelligence Community have come together to release a shocking report. These agencies, that include the CIA, FBI, Army, and Navy, they've already begun to estimate the impact of the fall of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

      And our reign as the world's leading super power being annihilated in a way equivalent to the end of the British Empire, post-World War II.

      And the end game could be a nightmarish scenario, where the world falls into an extended period of global anarchy.
      https://moneymorning.com/jim-rickard...at-depression/

      These 16 agencies war-gamed this whole thing on super computers and said a crash was unavoidable. BUT, somehow, it is Trump's fault.
      They won't even notice the fiscal typhoon coming until they are engulfed by it, and then the "low interest" man in the Oval Office will launch an all-out war on the Fed, which will only make the conflagration worse.
      Why not have an all-out war on the FED? It has long had an all-out war on the working man.

      vibrant capitalism can employ any and all workers who volunteer their labor if the state doesn't throw up obstacles or block the way with unreasonable minimum wage laws.
      RIGHT, you just have to underbid the Chinaman and the robot to get a job.
      EconomicPolicyJournal.com: The Nation's Fiscal Doomsday Machine is Now Unstoppable
      Trump hopes to slow the runaway train that is insolvency of the bond market.

      Comment


      • Fulford,,,The FED is on the brakes, the treasury is on the gas pedal

        I'll start with Fulford. It is difficult to know just how much of his reports are true. They ARE fascinating.
        Saudi Arabia to be broken up; Israel must choose between Netanyahu and Tel Aviv
        The federal indictment unsealed Thursday says they conspired to commit money laundering and bribery, misusing billions of dollars of Malaysian government funds.

        "In any case, the ongoing slow-motion stock market collapse will continue to claim corporate victims as the new Quantum Financial System goes online, the Pentagon sources say."


        "November 8 - Wall Street Journal (Justin Lahart): "Anybody who thought the Federal Reserve might scale back its plans for future rate increases after all the recent turmoil in the stock market has to be disappointed. The Fed on Thursday left interest rates unchanged, and it didn't change much else. "
        The FED is (effectively) shrinking the money supply by $50 billion a month. The reverse-leverage effect is shrinking the markets by many $trillions.
        "WSJ: "Treasury Bond Auction Draws Weakest Demand in Nearly a Decade."
        The Dow (DJIA) jumped 545 points (2.1%) in Wednesday's post-midterms trading. The S&P500's 2.1% rise was overshadowed by the Nasdaq Comp's ...





        The death of true capitalism was brought about by the emergence of crony-capitalism.

        Comment


        • federal Europe,,, China meltdown, not enough people

          Apparently, it is desperation time in Europe. Germany has a $ 1trillion current account surplus. The rest of the EU has a $1 trillion deficit.
          "In Germany, the SPD is now pushing for a revolution in Europe for all member states to surrender their sovereignty to Brussels. They are arguing to federalize Europe and thereby create an integrated Europe of one government."
          "The SPD manifesto calls for a Europe without nations and borders, thus to surrender sovereignty to prevent the resurgence of nationalism. EU Council President Donald Tusk has warned against the emergence of populist and anti-integration forces in Europe and the US."
          In Germany, the SPD is now pushing for a revolution in Europe for all member states to surrender their sovereignty to Brussels. They are arguing to federalize
          The eurozone could not borrow from the momentum of the U.S. economy in the third quarter as economic growth slumped to a tepid 0.2%, the slowest rate in more than four years.
          80% is considered the death-cross.

          "Collomb then virtually predicted civil war:
          Communities in France are coming into conflict more and more and it is becoming very violent . . . I would say that, within five years, the situation could become irreversible. Yes, we have five or six years to avoid the worst. After that . "
          The FED is tightening and, the ECB plans to tighten in December.
          ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


          Here is an article on the future of energy that shows EVERYTHING all carefully planned out.

          Here is the hockey stick that you have all been looking for.

          Comment


          • Spreading desperation

            It seems that desperation is slowly setting in.
            The battle of confidence. Fear vs greed.

            "Corporations have been buying back their shares since 2009 and are projected to buy another trillion or so dollars worth in the coming year. "



            The working age population falls 1 million a year and, they are mystified about growth risk.


            They already tried that years ago.

            So, do you think that it is time to start worrying?

            PANIC is NOT a plan.


            So, the dollar is rising BUT, the SNB dumped Apple. The rising dollar will wipe out everything but, nothing else will be safe.

            With ZIRP, the banks gave us no interest on our savings. This profited them by about $400 billion a year. Interest rates are going up and, wiping out mortgage demand but, we still don't get any interest on our savings.


            Malaysia wants a $4.5 billion refund from the crooks at Goldman.
            ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
            Tax havens are used as an instrument to increase the profitability of US multinationals at the expense of the public, according to investigative economist and lawyer James Henry.

            Here is an excellent vid explaining every aspect of why the State and banks refuse to do anything about the drug trade.

            Comment


            • The bust of globalism

              The British people wanted to leave the EU but, the politicians did not. The London bankers wanted free access to European capital markets.
              The Italian people AND the politicians wanted a Euro exit. They are on their way.
              Poland is now planning to leave. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...th-eu-by-2020/
              The momentum shows that the EU bond market / project has NO future. The capital flight will only make the dollar stronger.


              The fallout from renewable energy is; the low-cost producers will do OK. Fracking will just keep falling and, the debt markets will abandon it.

              The speed of the unwind is amazing.

              REALLY?

              As the Yaun and Euro weaken, dollar strength will be self-reinforcing. As the dollar gets stronger, we import more and drive up our trade deficit. We lose out on exports. Foreigners find it impossible to service dollar-denominated debt. Powell is going to run this train until something breaks. That will be the currencies of our economic competitors.

              This snub is all over the news. These snubbers are a bunch of panty-wastes,,,, like Macron and Trudeau. I doubt that Trump gives the snub even a moment's thought. He and the dollar are running the show. Snubbing Trump shows that this is ALL they can do.

              The globalists are pushing as hard as they can to bring world socialism. They plan to be running the show. The bankers claim that nationalism has caused ALL of the wars. A not-so-close examination shows that the bankers cause all the wars. Here is a good article about the push to socialism in Europe.
              Macron claims patriots love their country, and that nationalism is the opposite of patriotism, so Trump does not love America.


              The world is now in a debt trap. The CBs created something like $ 250 trillion of new debt. There are claims that this was done to bring on a crash. We would then all clamor for the IMF and SDR to rescue us. Here is an excellent article that is a must-read.

              Comment


              • Oil volatility and the fallen angels

                As Of October 2018, The US Is Now Energy Independent
                "This number is broken down into 11.35mn b/d of crude oil and 4.57 mn b/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs" No where to store all that gas.
                "With Some Tar Sands Oil Selling at a Loss"
                "The larger-than-expected surge in North American oil volumes has come primarily from the Permian, Canada's oil sands,"
                "according to Bank of America forecasts US crude oil volumes alone will exceed 12MM b/d in 2019."
                ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


                "oil prices have plunged more than $20 a barrel since the start of October,"
                "Along the way, U.S. crude has posted its longest losing streak since it began trading in New York more than three decades ago. "
                The U.S. shale oil industry hailed as a "revolution" has burned through a quarter trillion dollars more than it has brought in over the last decade. It has been a money-losing endeavor of epic proportions. In September 2016, the financial ratings service Moody's released a report on U.S. oil companies, many of which were hurting from the massive...
                ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




                Not much of a bounce / recovery these days.

                Poland, Austria and Hungary are watching from the sidelines to grab on to the Italian train when it leaves the station.

                That evil twit Macron is on his last legs. The French can thank Trump for causing Macron's mind to snap.

                Comment


                • Weapons, YES,,,clueless FED,,,Merkel's destruction of Europe

                  Rense;
                  Cost of US 'War on Terror' Will Soon Pass $6 Trillion
                  Pentagon Wants More Money for Lasers to Shoot Down Drones, Missiles
                  VP Pence said to be gearing up for all-out Cold War with China unless it bows to all US demands

                  There you have it. We need to spend every penny on building up the military.
                  US Military Could Lose Potential Conflict Against Russia, China - Report to US Congress
                  We don't actually want a hot war. We just want to spend as if a hot war was coming.
                  Fire sale time.


                  AI is taking over fixed income trading.
                  ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
                  ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
                  The German Chancellor addressed the European Parliament with a speech on the bloc’s future and called for unity and the need to look for compromises. This call was met with a mixed response among the legislators amid the growing number of...


                  11 signs of a slowing economy.
                  "#8 One new study discovered that 62 percent of all U.S. jobs do not currently pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle.

                  #10 Right now, more than half of all U.S. children are living in households that receive financial assistance from the federal government."
                  AND
                  America's fertility rates just hit an all-time low. Researchers don't know why.
                  11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Slow Down Dramatically

                  Comment


                  • Relative effects

                    I'd like to gauge the relative effect on the consumers and the economy of oil price, money printing and import taxes as being imposed recently. I don't know that any of this is a worry in the "upper realms" but in the lower loop it seems that the tail is wagging the dog. I'll try to explain.

                    From the very superficial research I was able to do in just a few minutes, it seems that there is about $38 billion of imports projected to be taxed at 25%. So, thinking this is an annual figure, consumers will pay roughly $9.5 billion in additional out of pocket from whatever family budget they may have.

                    Now, looking at out of pocket for fuel, gas, whatever. Supposedly for a $10 change (increase) in crude oil prices, the impact on the economy is (negative) $50 billion. The price of crude, low to high and now back down has ranged about $20. It has been trending up for the whole year but has dropped about $20 in the last month or less. So, it seems the impact on the pocket book of the price of crude is 5 to 10 times that of the price of import fees.

                    Lastly, compare to the bloat in the "money supply". That figure is about 1 trillion or more per year. I.e. $1,000 billion. So, that does not directly impact my personal cash flow but the size of it seems to be out of proportion. For every $1 that my situation gets affected, big brother is out there giving $20 to Wall Street and the big banks. What am I missing?

                    For the year leading up to the midterm elections, the price of oil is creeping up as much as $20. Starting a week or so before the mid terms the price of oil has dropped the same $20. That alone is weird, but is still small potatoes compared the monetary inflation. So curious. Yes? No?

                    Also, one more thing. Other than a few voices here and there, everybody is focused on the edges where Trump has done this or that. What a travesty it is.
                    There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.

                    Comment


                    • December will be very bad for Europe

                      Dunno Wayne, I just cut and paste.

                      Well, everybody knows about black swans.Side note, the budget cuts just in London resulted in 20,000 fewer cops and, a runaway murder rate.
                      An 8-month pregnant mum was shot and killed with a crossbow, Monday night. Sana Muhammed died of her wounds though doctors managed to save her baby who has been named Ibrahim.
                      They were all told in the beginning that it would NEVER work.
                      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


                      The Central Bankers have come to realize that gold is necessary to limit the runaway bond market created by the State in it's pursuit of freebies for everybody. Good article.
                      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
                      Armstrong said that Treasuries are going to collapse.

                      So, is Powell going until he sees the flight into treasuries?


                      Good read on crypto currencies, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...cryptocurrency

                      STRATCOM says that America needs to spend zillions of dollars on hypersonic weapons.
                      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


                      We need to get away from the whole war mindset.
                      Nobody is going to invade America. Trans-Jordon is a different story.

                      Defense (offence) spending is supposed to trickle down. Yes, it does but, not enough to do any good.

                      Keynes advocate counter-cyclical spending by the State when the economy cooled down. He also preferred perpetual war to keep the economy stimulated. I don't think that he every entertained the idea of the State going broke from wars.

                      Comment


                      • knew that the supreme court was the weak point in their plans. It would eventually distort the balance of power until the States were subservient to the Federal Government.
                        So, here we are with a terminally bloated central government. The State is clamping down on civil liberties in the hope of retaining control when the default cascade hits. The genesis of the problem was when the chains of gold were removed and the State could expand the bond market without limit. This paid for lots of wars for a greater israel but, it only killed and impoverished the average American.

                        Powell is blowing up the stock market, probably in the hopes of driving investors into the "safe haven" of U.S. treasury bonds. Armstrong has stated unequivocally that GOV bonds will blow up. Investors can see what is happening to Japan and European bonds. It doesn't take much imagination to see U.S. bonds doing the same thing.

                        Paul Volker ran the interest rates up to ~21% to wring the excesses out of the system. How high will Powell go?
                        I found 3 articles that are too good to excerpt. If you live in Western Europe, read them as if your life depended on it.



                        What ever happened to "Six Sigma"?  GE was one of the most beloved and hyped S&P500 stocks during the late-nineties Bubble Era. With "visio...




                        Any time that the State has the power to inflate the money supply for welfare-warfare, it will do so. America has had a LOT of help at using our Bretton Woods credit card for very expensive wars.

                        Comment


                        • Money vs assets,,, parasites vs workers

                          "Allow me to print the money and I care not who writes the laws." You know how this story goes. At the start, the U.S. dollar was gold-convertible. The dollar had positive value. It had limited issuance. For the purpose of waging war, the State demanded that the CB produce and sell war bonds. This was seen as as such a great arrangement that the State demanded that the practice continue after the end of the war. The gold-link was eventually broken to the private individual in about 1931. It was broken to foreign States in 1971.The Viet-Nam war and the Great Society were just too costly.

                          The U.S. dollar went from having a positive value to being just a debt-note. As a positive note, it could only be produced in limited quantity. As a debt note, it could be produced in practically unlimited numbers.
                          Paper money is just one level on Exter's Pyramid.
                          ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

                          It ranges from Gold to Credit default swaps.credit default swaps was right at about $1 quadrillion. The money supply is actually fairly limited. BUT, with every State and corporate entity issuing corporate bonds and stocks, the ASSET supply is enormous. These assets have value because investors agree to buy and hold them.
                          Price inflation has been muted because there is very little increase in the money supply. The huge increase in the number of assets
                          Financialization isn’t a perversion of an otherwise well-functioning system. It’s just capitalism’s latest survival mechanism.


                          "U.S. corporations have engaged in a borrowing binge since the Global Financial Crisis. Total outstanding non-financial U.S. corporate debt is up by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 40 percent since its 2008 peak, which was already a precariously high level, to begin with."
                          "U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 45% of GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and U.S. housing and credit bubble:"
                          Jesse Colombo Blog | How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst | TalkmarketsNext Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse :: The Market Oracle ::

                          Here is an article on making Central Banks into public utilities. The article goes on and on. This is a tired old diversion. There is one question and ONE question only. Will fresh printed money be paid to speculators OR, will it be paid to workers? If CB money is first passed through the banks, the actual producers will ALWAYS lose ground to price inflation.
                          Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk :: The Market Oracle ::

                          Comment


                          • RRE meltdown,,,margin debt

                            The upper lop of the economy consists of finance, insurance and, real; estate. Since anyone with some kind of a charter is allowed to create debt instruments like stocks and bonds, that is exactly what they are doing. Never mind that most of this is just debt paper. Even though stocks are supposed to be shares of a legitimate company, the company itself may be nothing but a ponzi scheme. Witness the evaporation of General Electric.
                            The FIRE economy meets the productive economy (lower loop) primarily in residential real estate since RRE is a large capacity store of value.

                            All that hot money that the CBs flooded to the speculators flowed into RRE and blew up the system in 2008. RRE was inflated by the upper loop BUT, depended on wages in the lower loop.
                            10 years later and, the hot money is flooding into RRE again. The number of Owner-occupied dwelling haven't gone up in many years. The prices are all inflated by speculators. Since wages are stagnant and employment is dropping, price inflation in RRE is all driven by speculation.

                            The risky ones first.30% below
                            How soon we forget. George Santayana long ago wrote these immortal words: “Those who cannot learn from the past are doomed to repeat it”. However, a more recent thinker took his observation one step further by wryly observing (with a little paraphrasing by yours truly): “And the rest of us…
                            20% decline from the peak."

                            Powell is driving down the stock market, possibly to drive money to GOV bonds. Chances are that he will force the margin call from hell long before he drives any money into bonds.

                            Armstrong, "The latest hat being thrown into the ring is the European Commission is planning to enter their sanctions against Italy. As it stands currently, they have proposed disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21st, 2018
                            There are so many things happening in the political world it is next to impossible to figure out what is going to be the focal point for the Pi target since



                            Essentially the BOJ printed trillions of Yen to compensate for a falling birth rate and falling effective wages and, falling confidence in the future. They have finally faced the fact that printing free money can't buy confidence.


                            The French GOV spends 57% of the gdp and, is highly in debt. Macron, the globalist plans to just squeeze it out of everybody. Classic parasite.


                            PG&E started the Camp fire and, has inadequate insurance. Presumably, the PUC will let them gouge ratepayers to cover the difference.
                            A bit late.

                            The whole fracking industry will go dark eventually.

                            The algos will blow that up in a million ways.

                            Germany and Japan are occupied territory, make no mistake.
                            "According to official information provided by the Department of Defense (DoD) and its Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) there are still about 40,000 US troops, and 179 US bases in Germany, over 50,000 troops in Japan (and 109 bases), and tens of thousands of troops, with hundreds of bases, all over Europe."
                            Germany is rightly getting very tired of this.
                            Amid growing disagreements between Washington and Berlin, ranging from the tariff dispute to the row over the NATO spending and US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Gerhard Schroeder has demanded convergence with China.

                            Comment


                            • Dying FAANGS,,,downgraded bonds

                              Many institutional investors are forbidden by their charter from investing in stocks and bonds that are not rated investment grade. Typically, they must sell these assets when they get downgraded. There is a level of bonds just above "junk" rating that are still considered investment grade. 93% of stock market gains are due just to FED printing. The FED is now doing a "double tightening". They stopped QE,,, and shrank their portfolio.
                              The stock market lost more than $2 trillion in October - CNBC.com

                              The darlings of the stock market were the FAANGS. Facebook, Apple, Netflix, et al.

                              As stocks fall, there will be a HUGE margin call for investors to pony up money. The other problem is that, many stocks will fall OUT of investment grade ratings..

                              "the threat to the credit market that is the downgrade of over a $1 trillion in BBB-rated investment grade bonds - most extensively in "The Next Bond Crisis: Over $1 Trillion In Bonds Risk Cut To Junk Once Cycle Turns" - with recent sharp moves wider by GE, PG&E and Ford bonds confirming that the credit market is starting to crack,"
                              "credit could soon blow up financial markets due to (amongst other things) the weight of US BBBs about to swamp the HY market, record levels of Cov-lite issuance and due to record high US corporate leverage."
                              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero



                              Yep, if Russia refuses to cut production, the continuing fall of oil will be very bad for the banks.

                              The Chinese business model was growth, NOT profit. The shrinking population and shrinking marketplace won't allow growth.

                              Here is a long vid talking about all points of the coming collapse.

                              There are dozens of black swans circling and one of them is going to go SPLAT!
                              BREXIT is looking particularly nasty.
                              " The total volume of Non-Performing Loans across the European Union is still at around EUR 900 billion, well above pre-crisis levels," \
                              "2018 was the year of the perfect combination to drive banks shares higher: Confidence in the eurozone, the likelihood of rate hikes, improvement of fundamentals and earnings growth. None of it happened."

                              Italy looks like it will ignore the dictats out of Brussels.
                              ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

                              Comment


                              • rollover in confidence AND markets.

                                Armstrong announced that today is a important Pi target. There are LOTS of candidates for major reversals.
                                Welcome to the Pi Target Day 2018.89. There is just so much going on it is hard to say which event is the critical target. These events are usually


                                Markets have crashed,,,, confidence is still high but,,,, you know how that goes.


                                The darling FAANG stocks have lost between 40% and 20%. Do NOT worry,,, buy the dip.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X