Economic pressures

[Danny B]

the parasites are overdrawn

I work hard. Where does my money go? The industrial economy produces enormous wealth. Where does it all go? We should have drastically falling prices with so much automation. Who is reaping the benefits of all this productivity?
I'm helping a couple of kids with college tuition. Tuition was just raised in the UC system. Wonder why?
"UC panel proposed Tuesday that environmental and social issues should influence how the system invests its $91 billion"
OK, so the UC system has $91,000,000,000 to it's credit. Why the helll does it have to raise tuition?
184,000 GOV entities have hundreds of $ trillions stashed away but, they need to raise taxes. Obama's Phony Turning Point
Orange county in Ca. screamed that they had a $ 1 billion deficit and had to raise taxes. Someone got up at the meeting and pointed to the CAFR report and showed that Orange county showed $14 billion in cash and lots of investments.

A few years ago, there was a huge battle in Wisconsin over a demand to raise taxes to cover budget shortfalls. I went to the State GOV site and clicked on the "comprehensive annual financial report". It returned, "page unavailable, contact your webmaster". Someone else did have the report and aired it out showing that Wisconsin had tons of money. Wisconsin’s Real Financial Situation Explained | REALITY BLOG

Now, we've all heard the claim that America is a corporation, " UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INC.
Registered in Delaware
as a Religious Non-profit Corporation "
AMERICAN KABUKI: UPDATED: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INC. Registered in Delaware as a Religious Non-profit Corporation
AND; United States v. United States of America

Everyone has seen the vid on tax farming; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQT58A
Looking at the numbers and structure of GOV, one would be inclined to believe that GOV exists solely to feed itself and grow without limit. One also gets the idea that; if GOV continuously demands ever-more taxes, it does so to keep us producing rather than kicking back and taking it easy.

If the UC system is a public institution supported by taxes, why should there be any need for it to squirrel away $ 91 billion. Even the court systems have hundreds of billions squirrelled away. We're taxed mercilessly to support entities that don't need support.
The economy is crashing because we have no money and there is no demand. The enormous price deflation that should have been a benefit of automation never appeared. It was siphoned off by taxes, fees and interest. Was this done simply to provide support for every bureaucrat that was able to slither into a GOV job OR, was it done to bring a low birth rate?

The 2008 crash was an example of what happens when to much money is forced into a sector beyond the fundamental need. The same thing was done in the oil sector. The Fracturing Energy Bubble Is the New Housing Crash | Zero Hedge
It is expected to be 10 times worse and it didn't even cause the effects that the neo-cons hoped for. Russian news: America's "Defeat Russia with Cheap Oil" Strategy is Failing - Russia Insider
This isn't expected to turn out well;
The Fed Is Sitting On a $191 TRILLION Time Bomb | Zero Hedge

[Danny B]

Global debt and the dollar

The FED lowered interest rates to near zero. The bankers made about $ 440 billion in bets (derivatives) that rates would stay there for the future. These Interest rate swaps are just lying there waiting to blow up. The bankers have gotten regulatory changes to ensure that their derivatives are first in line for payout,,, before depositors or share/bond holders. As an insurance policy on payment, they have gotten regulatory changes that would make the FDIC also responsible for big parts.

At the same time, tons of free dollars flowed into emerging markets in the form of dollar-denominated loans. The EM States just assumed that the dollar spigot would never run out. The FED is not near so free with dollars now and the spigot is drying up.
Fed calls time on $5.7 trillion of emerging market dollar debt - Telegraph

EM States that depend on oil for income have it even worse. Venezuela is expected to default next year. Russia will have NO problem because they sell lots to China and China has about $ 3 trillion dollars. The neo-cons have driven Russia and China even closer. Not happy with this debacle, they have tried to isolate Europe from Russia. This is failing also.
Backfired! | Michael Hudson
The U.S. still imports natural gas but, claims that it can supply Europe with gas. Right now, Europe is trying to do a reversal of the cancellation of the South Stream pipeline. They can see the writing on the wall AND the frost on the windowpane. CNG/LNG export terminals in America are years in the future.
Considering the situation in Ukraine, it appears that the Neo cons are more than willing to see Europe both, freeze to death AND become embroiled in a pan-Europe war. The net makes FAR too many people painfully aware of this obvious plan. Every influential person in Germany has written Merkel to tell her to pull her head out of her a$$.

The neo cons have a blatant agenda for world war. The Europeans are VERY tired of war. They know that the bankers are salivating at the prospect of a Europe-wide theater.

Greenspan made it clear just recently that the FED is not independent. Assume that the Neo cons have control and want a Europe-wide crash and war. The FED is still pumping money into the system but, NOT so that it flows into emerging markets. EM States will crash. European banks have huge exposure to EM debt.
Last time that the FED tightened, it brought down Russia and much of Asia. The FED IS tightening. It appears that they hope to crash the rest of the world this time, including Europe. WW III would just be the icing on the cake for the bankers.
The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil - The Automatic Earth
So much of global debt is denominated in dollars and the criminals in the District of Corruption hope to light the world on fire to gain world control.

BBC News - Global debt: How worried should we be?
The rest of the world is VERY motivated to stop us. No matter the burden they must bear, it would still be better than WW III.

[Danny B]

GEAB N°90 is available ! Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!
Money creation is up and velocity is down, The Housing Bubble Explained in One Little Gem of an Excerpt….. | First Rebuttal

[Danny B]

Paul Craig Roberts – Russia To Unleash Ultimate Black Swan Against The West | King World News
So, European banks face catastrophe from emerging market debt AND catastrophe from Russia if it chooses to stop NATO dead in it's tracks.

[Danny B]

stupid, criminal bankers and the dominoes of debt

In the movies, "Silver Bears", Cybill Shepard states that all bankers are crazy. It is a result of the fact that they handle money all day but, don't have any themselves. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jjkj_Wb0-w
From Martin Armstrong, "Then there was what people called the First Gilded Age more than a century ago, when senators and representatives were owned by Wall Street and big business. This culminated in the 1929 Crash."
"Will they Hang Bankers Again on Wall Street?"
Will they Hang Bankers Again on Wall Street? | Armstrong Economics

The CBs printed lots of free money. This flowed into emerging markets and commodities. The super-cycle in commodities has come to an end BUT, the debt structure is still there. The money went into commodities as speculation that wasn't based on consumption. Danielle Park says that there is a carry-trade that is unwinding that is nominally valued at $ 9 trillion. There is an audio link halfway down the page.
Juggling Dynamite | By Danielle Park
Armstrong, " The interesting aspect is the talking heads will continue to yell and scream about a stock bubble. They are blind to the debt bubble and have not even considered what happens when government bonds go off the boards." BIG BANG & THE DOMINO EFFECT | Armstrong Economics

Armstrong, "Furthermore, so many people (mainly Americans) are so bearish on the dollar because of debt that they cannot see the simple fact that even $17 trillion in debt is nothing in comparison to $158 trillion in worldwide debt. They also fail to grasp that the US debt is the ONLY place for money right now to park among nations."
Coming Emerging Market Debt Meltdown | Armstrong Economics

OK, so the dollar goes higher because America is the current safe haven. By shifting reserves into dollars, Europe and the emerging markets are hastening their own demise.
The oil companies have had a 49% decline in valuation.
Drilling Our Way Into Oblivion - The Automatic Earth
This has caused $ 1 trillion in stranded investments. Think that might explode a few derivative contracts?
Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields - Bloomberg

[Danny B]

Headed for a quadrillion

There is a troll who appears everywhere claiming that no GOV can go broke that prints it's own currency. Technically, I suppose that this is true. Realistically, GOV might survive but, the rest of the economy will go bust.

Just how much can be printed? Gideon Gono of Zimbabwe printed trillion dollar notes. It still didn't work out too well.
We may get to find out. "The Bond Bubble's Risk Hits an Unbelievable $555 TRILLION in Size" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...-trillion-size

[Danny B]

Eurasian integration for Europe

The industrial Revolution created great wealth and power and military might. It started in England and Germany. This allowed the West to exercise great control over the East, Opium was a great help also. The industrial revolution has finally caught up in the East. The Eastern States were able to hold wages down to accumulate a huge bankroll. Their next project is to raise wages and the standard of living.
The West always tried to keep the East in a colonial status. The emerging markets have industry and a bankroll. They plan to use these to pull away from the West and integrate among themselves.
Europe has been totally thrashed and trashed by following the lead of the war mongers in America / London. The East is offering Europe a chance to escape the endless American wars and resulting austerity. The East is intent on building a trading empire and NOT a belligerent empire.

First comes communication, then, transportation. This is followed by developing markets. There is now a train that runs from China to Spain. There are plans to build high-speed rail links to get away from maritime transportation.
The District of Corruption offers endless wars and widespread chaos. The East offers integration and trade. The idiots in D.C are trying to obtain / maintain control of the oil that runs in pipelines from Russia and central Asia. The East is building institutions to replace Western control of banking and investment.

The U.S. is only 4% of the world's population. The R.O.W. has grown up and industrialized. They see D.C. pushing for WW III. They see that the Chinese just want to get filthy rich doing trade. Europe just shot itself in the foot by getting the Southstream pipeline cancelled. Hopefully, they will break away from American dictates in the near future.
They have to choose between American enforced chaos or a chance of a peaceful future with Eurasian integration.
Tomgram: Pepe Escobar, Eurasian Integration vs. the Empire of Chaos | TomDispatch

[Danny B]

Purge In Russia and theft of retirment accounts in America

There were about 7 countries who were not members of the B.I.S. America started invading them one at a time. The Russian central bank is a member of the B.I.S. The B.I.S is dictating to the Russian CB that it not print or loan money. Also, they attacked the Rouble on the FOREX exchange. All in an attempt to crash the currency and country. Russia would like to escape the clutches of the B.I.S. but, Russia is number 2 in volume in the SWIFT system. They have to have a replacement system before they can break away.

China knows very well that they will be next in line if Russia is crashed. They are supporting Russia and buying lots of oil. Even the oligarchs in Russia are supporting Putin. They know that they too will be on the chopping block if the Western bankers can crash Russia.
This vid with Federov is very interesting. At about 23:00, he talks about a purge coming. He refers to the Russian CB and bankers as a fifth column.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qLMG0KD3rI

Man Asked To Speak To Chinese Officials Warns 2015 Collapse To Dwarf That Of 2008 | King World News

Adrian Salbuchi is a very astute Argentinian economist. He has about 226 videos talking about the collapse in Argentina. He also talks about what we can expect in America. https://www.youtube.com/user/arsalbuchiExposed – Dangerous 2015 Ahead As Global Governments Plan To Steal Money | King World News
"For a bankrupt government with obligations too massive to pay, the pool of nearly $20 trillion of retirement savings is too juicy not to make a run at it. As we have seen with health care, the elites believe that the average citizen is too stupid to make the right choices for their families. The same will be true on the path to retirement confiscations because only the governments and their crony financial institutions will be allowed to make the investment decisions."
BTW, the money in the Social Security trust fund is all gone and has been replaced with NON-negotiable IOUs.

[Danny B]

inverted US Dollar (meaning when the Dollar strengthens, the black line falls) and Oil (blue line):

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2014/12/sc-1_0.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-29/9-trillion-us-dollar-carry-trade-blew-oil-russia-and-brazil%E2%80%A6-whats-next

The fall in the price of oil is part of the commodity super-cycle that is playing out.
Crude Oil – In the Grips of Massive Deflationary Cycle | Armstrong Economics

The reason that gold is such a good store of value is because it is basically useless. No matter how high the price goes, it doesn't affect the general economy. When oil goes up, it wipes out other sectors of the economy.

[Danny B]

Future employment

If someone invents a tool somebody will use it. If somebody invents a tool that gives them a business advantage, somebody will use it. Look at high frequency trading. They moved their computer as close to the exchanges as possible to have the shortest possible transit time for orders. What does that portend?
Read this carefully; Socrates v Watson | Armstrong Economics
Read this carefully; Yes Socrates Monitors the World | Armstrong Economics
What happens to employment when the best man for the job is a computer? Imagine Socrates in the cloud! Every business decision is weighed, analyzed and judged. Currently, Socrates juggles 23,000 variables and has the economic info for the last 3,000 years.
For the sake of argument, let's suppose that Socrates can't be corrupted. Several years ago, I proposed on the Burning Man blog that ALL political decisions be run through a program that would predict the outcome. It wouldn't control anything,,, just predict the outcome. We use search engines to look for answers. Suppose that we took that one step farther.
Socrates and Watson could pass judgement on every act and decision done by man.
What happens to employment when everything under the sun is optimized?
And Then?
"Colossus: The Forbin Project" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmSsXoPxi0M

[Danny B]

The disappearing middle class and the new trading blocs

Well, the year is closing out. Even though the oil price has collapsed, it doesn't appear that the relevant derivatives have blown sky high. We'll see. There is quite a bit of other news. As everyone knows, there is an increasing income disparity. The rich don't seem to mind because they are looking forward to the new "feudalism". It is a very dangerous state of affairs when the middle class has lost everything.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/annihilation-middle-class-beginning-end-modern-america

17 Facts About China That Will Blow Your Mind (FXI, LFC, PTR, SHI)

Commodities are crashing but, have a long way to go to reach historical lows. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...-case-iron-ore

The rest of the world is forming trade blocs to try to get away from the influence of America. Event Horizon Chronicle: The Great Unraveling of 2015
"The President of Ecuador, Rafael Correa, will be in Beijing for a bi-lateral summit meeting with the Chinese leadership.

Let The Games Begin

That is no accident. Ecuador will hold the rotating presidency of CELAC in 2015. As Ecuadorean head of state, Correa will therefore occupy a crucial position of international leadership in 2015. It will not have been lost on the Chinese that Rafael Correa is a PhD economist, whose doctoral work at the University of Illinois had to do with "game theory." Game theory is concerned with the mathematical modeling of strategic decision-making, including international decision-making. It is widely used and studied in economics, policy making and political science."
There is a new appreciation for the importance of energy;
Next Big Future: Correctly factoring in the more important role of energy corrects economic predictions - Energy has Ten times bigger role than cost

It looks like we all live in interesting times.

[Danny B]

Prive inflation with wage deflation

After Great Depression I, there was a lot of blame placed on the "dark pools" of liquidity moving rapidly, hither and yon. The markets are becoming more volatile every day. Commodities are at the start of a total meltdown. Liquidity is fast flowing out of oil. Where can it go? 60% of the money in the Japanese stock market is foreign investors. It can move very fast but,,, to where? Emerging markets are crashing because they can't service $ 3 trillion in dollar loans. There is a $ 9 trillion carry trade. Can it unwind peacefully when the dollar is rising?

What about satisfying the derivatives written on the energy markets? 15% of the derivatives are written on energy. Oil fracking is crashing badly and shutting down. The oil majors in Europe lost $ 6 billion in the last 5 years. How long can they be forced to operate at a loss? Can the oil majors in America be forced to continue to operate at a loss? They are losing $ billions.

Previously, the oil majors were floated along on the the junk-bond market. That is disappearing. Will GOV write a check to completely underwrite the energy business?

Wall street is pricing in a very bad year for GOV bonds. Will liquidity displaced from the EMs and commodities flow into bonds? The printing press is trying to preserve the credit structure when consumption is dead in the water. There is no long-term future in that.
The investment community is denigrating the huge income disparity. Just how short-sighted can they get. This is abysmally stupid. The investment community is invested in the consumer economy.

The sins of the central banks are huge and numerous. The blindness of both investors and corporatism are far more destructive.

The bankers have their mindset focused pointedly on money.
The investors have their mindset focused on R.O.I.
ALL are blinded. ALL are focused on productivity. NOBODY is focused on consumption. Everybody figures that consumption is a "given". That may be true for bare necessities but, NOT for discretionary spending.
It is ABSOLUTE HERESY to suggest that dividends be reduced so that wages can be increased. Bonuses, maybe but, NOT wages.

There is a billion sq.ft. of empty retail space in America,,, ya think that might be related to lack of wages?

Sure, go ahead,,, outsource all those jobs. Don't come crying to me when you can't find a customer. We should have realized massive price deflation as a result of automation. NOPE. It was all absorbed and paid out as stock dividends. Everything is priced by "performance pricing". The manufacturing cost is irrelevant. The major crime of the corporation was to disconnect cost from price. Why do you think that credit terms had to grow ever longer? There will be NO renaissance of the consumer economy as long as the crony capitalism and stock dividends prevent price deflation.

Where do you think the credit bubble came from. If wages were adequate, remuneration from productive work would have been much closer to adequate to pay for consumption.

Over the decades, more and more jobs were automated. As aggregate income for productive work was diminished, the presses worked ever-faster. As we slide towards a global-mean wage, more and more things have to be paid for by wet-ink money in lieu of actual wages.

Our lower wages COULD have paid for lower price consumptive goods but, it was not to be. Instead of lower prices, there was an ever-increasing profit margin. This was all absorbed by the rentiers. I'm not a Marxist. BUT, the maxim of "all the markets can bear" MUST be allowed to play out in the FREE market, NOT in the conjured credit market.

The rentiers of "money" have subsumed the productive economy. Their thin-air money is the same money that the productive market has to work for. In their short-sighted blindness, they will bring it all down.
Income redistribution is NOT the solution. Corporatism is not the solution. They will eternally focus on profit and margin. World GOV is NOT the solution. They will focus on redistribution and kill incentive.
With a free market economy, MOST rentiers will be obliterated,,, fine with me. Either bring back wages OR write off the consumer economy. The bankers are in a mad scramble to save the credit structure when the wage structure is gone. U.S. GOV is printing $ 2.5 B a day. This is gross STUPIDITY, doubly so when it has long been proved that it won't work.

It is too late to bring back wages. It is too late to save productivity when consumption has died. It is too late to save the currency when credit has died. The bankers enabled fiat money. Fiat money enabled the disconnect between prices and wages. An inflated market in prices with a deflated market for wages,,,, just what do you think the outcome will be?

[Danny B]

Corbyn, Armstrong and Socrates.

Our revered meteorologists have super computers to predict the weather and things like global warming. BUT, garbage in-garbage out.
Piers Corbyn has a different approach.
"In his talk, Piers Corbyn described the failure of standard meteorology (SM) in outlook, theory, and practice. He included: signals in real meteorology data unexplained by SM; real role of jet stream, stratosphere, electro-jets, magnetosphere, solar wind, solar corona, and the Moon; the total inability of SM to explain: sudden stratospheric warmings and its consequences, tropical storm intensifications, angular momentum concentration in tornadoes; and the need for something else such as electromagnetic plasma explanations; the theoretical basis of non-standard long range weather forecasting on a real planet; a summary on his WeatherAction forecasting skill and examples; and the future of forecasting and meteorology, climate 'science' and science in general."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R26PXRrgds

OK, so he uses far more varied input data. He gets far more accurate results.

The current dominant economic system is the horrendous morass created by John Maynard Keynes. His system is based on unlimited growth and credit expansion. A later arrival that is much more accurate is the Austrian school of economics. It is a far better model. But, like most models, there is room for improvement.

That brings us to Martin Armstrong. He is the "Piers Corbyn" of the economic world. Like Piers, he uses far more inputs. Since nobody can mentally juggle this many inputs, he has a program called "Socrates" that does the juggling. He spent about 8 1/2 years in prison because he refused to turn his program over to GOV. Socrates runs 23,000 variables and has a 3,000 year base of results to work from.
Piers Corbyn has a program that blows everybody else out of the water. How long until it is universally used?
Martin Armstrong has a program that puts every other model to shame. How long until his model is universally Used?
One thing that the Austrians don't take into account is that the U.S. dollar is a global money and won't respond to over-printing like a national currency would. Empire v Mere State | Armstrong EconomicsAustrian Economics v Keynesian Economics | Armstrong Economics

Armstrong has always had good results; "The year 2014 has been a year which has made all our long-term forecasts amazingly on target."
2014 – What a Year | Armstrong Economics
Everyone is aware of what computer modelling can do if it is fed the right data.
Both Corbyn and Armstrong receive regular feedback on their analysis.
A good chess player or a good chess program can predict far ahead the results of a given move. If Armstrong's program were in universal use, it would be glaringly obvious when a planned economic action would produce bad results.
This would be contingent on Socrates being aware of significant scientific advancements. Wait and see.

[Danny B]

Where Will All the Workers Go? by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate
There just isn't enough appreciation for the ever-increasing job loss to automation. It will suddenly become a BIG problem when the politicians and lawyers lose their jobs.

The main problems are 2. 1. capitalism is "programmed" to send it's rewards to those directly involved in productivity and service. Those not involved get a pittance. 2. people without jobs tend to lose their center of their lives.
Keynes proposed that we will lose this "affliction" and learn to have a meaningful life even if we aren't employed. Keynes also extrapolated that the growth of wealth would make work unnecessary in the future. He guessed that we would have to suffer another century of the present system until wealth grew so large that there would be no reason to work.

https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/1930/our-grandchildren.htm

Shumpter came up with the idea of creative destruction where we would constantly create and destroy wealth to keep everyone employed. The U.S. military seems to follow that advice. U.S. GOV spends about 44% of the GDP building planes that don't fly well and wars that accomplish nothing but to enrich the offence industry.
We build to destroy because there is no remedy for efficiency. We have 22 billion slaves working for us. WHAT are we going to do to stay occupied?
22 Billion Energy SlavesTen warning signs of a market crash in 2015 - Telegraph

[Danny B]

Headlines, color revolutions and war

The headlines are getting very interesting.
Need to channel savings away from gold, PM Narendra Modi tells banks
Need to channel savings away from gold, PM Narendra Modi tells banks - Economic Times
Indians hold about 20,000 tons of gold. The PM is tyring to convince them to hold their savings in paper. 15,000 years of history argues differently.

The war on gold and the financial endgame

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-willem-middelkoop-the-war-on-gold-and-the-financial-endgame.aspx?article=6189128584H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Dan+Popescu&mk=1

I think that you can guess the endgame. It has 6,000 years of history.

Europe's bond yields fall to lowest since the Black Death
Europe's bond yields fall to lowest since the Black Death - Telegraph
that sounds SO suggestive.

Japanese births drop to lowest ever, deaths hit all time high
The Death Of A Nation: Japanese Births Drop To Lowest Ever, Deaths Hit All Time High | Zero Hedge
That's what happens when you rob a People of their future

The Anglo-American hegemon has historically used color revolutions or outright attacks against any state that tried to escape the embrace of the petro-dollar. Putin really loves Russia and has played very honestly with the Russian people. His people saw what happened in Georgia and the Ukraine. They see what the west has done to the Middle East and many other places. They know that their only chance to avoid revolution and avoid being a vassal state to the District of Corruption is too back Putin.

D.C. and Langley were not able to create a color revolution. The last option is all out war with Russia. China doesn't want to be next in line so, they will advance with Russia. THAT is a non-starter. America is trying to chip away at Russia and China BUT, they are running out of time. The petro-dollar is fast fading. Grandmaster Putin's Golden Trap - Fort Russ