This forum is preserved as a permanent archive. The community continues at eMedia Press.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Economic pressures

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • In spite of TINA, confidence is slipping

    Ludwig von Mises said that all credit bubble eventually collapse. FED GOV has produced enormous bubbles ever since it escaped the restriction of gold. GOV must pay for all it's toadies, it's 22 million employees,,, it's wars and, it's welfare dependents. The Japanese model seems to indicate that it can just print new money to pay for everything.
    At $21 Trillion, The National Debt Is Growing 36% Faster Than The US Economy. March, 2018
    Since Pox Americana has no intention of ever repaying this debt, the debt-service cost is what matters. The original idea was; since the CBs passed out all the free money, money renters only worried about interest income and NOT, repayment. This free money meant that banks no longer had to pay interest on deposits nor attract capital. Free money to them and, 22% credit card interest to you.
    Just how long could this arrangement be maintained?

    Negative interest on bonds ($13 trillion worth) should be good for stocks. here is a good article showing that this just hasn't happened.
    ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

    Stocks are pumped up by the CBs and, nobody is attracted to them.
    Banks, transports and small caps are below their 200 day moving average.

    While everybody is pushed to keep their money in the markets, NIRP and falling dividends is a big negative. The CBs are counting on TINA, there is no alternative.

    Armstrong, "ANSWER: Nothing. What is happening is that we are running into reality. The entire Quantitative Easing has completely failed. The focus on interest rates has been lost insofar as we are dealing with a major question of a structural crisis."
    So, just how bad will the collision with reality be?

    More reality;
    US shale an 'unmitigated disaster' with industry hundreds of billions in debt - shale pioneer
    Fracking has been an “unmitigated disaster” for shale companies themselves, according to a prominent former shale executive.


    $9 trillion corporate debt bomb is 'bubbling' in the US economy Nov, 2018
    Gundlach: Corporate Bonds Could Be a Repeat of the Sub-Prime Crisis It is expected that corporate debt will blow this time around.
    Keep in mind that most of the recent rally has been in JUNK corporate debt.

    Profits peaked about 8 years ago.

    Those aren't masses, they're muppets.

    It's price inflation that is trickling down, NOT wage inflation.


    To WHERE? stocks are more than 2 times overbought.


    The price of gold does go up an down a bit. Most of the change in price is just a change in the value of the currency that is used to buy the gold. Gold doesn't go up. It's just the currency going down.

    That will definitely bite them in the A$$.

    God messed up and, failed to make all people equal. The libtards are trying to correct this oversight.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...be-merit-alone
    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...survive-crisis

    MSM has far too much power over the public. It is going to get even more ,concentrated.

    Comment


    • Create more debt because, nobody has a better plan

      Where to start? There is a lot of news that affects the economy.
      The CBs have created megatons of "money' but, still expect this "money" to retain it's previous value.
      The vast majority of this "Money" is denominated as DEBT.
      How much debt? $184 trillion. Your share is $86,000 Even if you live on an aborigine reserve south of Darwin, you still owe $86k
      The world’s debt currently exceeds $86,000 per person on average, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The US, China, and Japan are the top three global borrowers, accounting for more than half of the global debt.
      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

      Along with employment, we have energy problems. Fracking has lost $208 billion. The FED is pumping it up by proxy.

      QE is an attempt to float businesses that employ people. It is soon to be institutionalized as MMT and UBI.
      Janet Yellen has now warned about excess debt.
      Latest data from the US Treasury Department shows that the federal government is sitting on $21.85 trillion of debt. At current pace it is likely to hit the $22 trillion mark next month.

      Saudi Arabia's business model may guide the future bankers.

      Everybody knows that Germany is the powerhouse pulling along the Eurozone. No more.

      Everybody knows that gold is just a pet rock. Italy plans to pay off debts with mini-bots. The ECB plans to take Italy's gold.
      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


      The Chinese are manufacturing millions of Carats of gem quality diamonds.

      The gold ETFs trade 50% of world supply every day. They claim that physical gold is an old anachronism.
      https://www.rt.com/business/442007-d...e-marketplace/
      Paul Craig Roberts shows exactly where we are economically.
      ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




      There is good reason to believe that the unwinding will hit VERY fast.

      The State and the bankers want unlimited power to do unlimited money / debt expansion. They don't nee no stinkin gold reset.



      Water is going to be big news for many decades to come.

      Video: 200 Israeli Nuclear Weapons Targeted against Iran - Global ...
      https://www.globalresearch.ca/video-......iran/564103...
      Jun 19, 2019 - Video: 200 Israeli Nuclear Weapons Targeted against Iran ..


      https://www.rt.com/news/462743-israe...es-losing-gps/
      President Donald Trump on Tuesday suggested that the US is "not going to need an exit strategy" if war broke out with Iran.
      That is very true. All the oil shipping points would be closed. Much of Iran and Saudi would be in flames. Insurance companies would refuse to insure cargoes. Hezbollah and the IRGC would overrun israel. Nuclear winter would add to the already present global cooling.

      Comment


      • Web 3.0,,, emerging cryptos,,, CB control of cryptos

        As more and more payment is made electronically, we slide ever-closer to a cashless society. The banks want a cashless society so that ALL wealth is stored with them. The State wants a cashless society so that all transactions can be audited by them.
        Armstrong has a report sector just on the State's hunt for taxes.

        This cashless society would / will need some kind of baseline token of exchange value. The bankers and the State are fighting any connection with gold. They want some sort of crypto. The banks originate most of the debt-denominated "wealth" and, they want to keep it that way. ALL new money is first run through their greedy fingers.

        As modern man continues to wantonly deviate, flaunt, and reject the natural law and the Divinely-created order from which it derives, it is not surprising that illusions like Bitcoin and other cryp…

        The emerging crypto systems are created to maintain private / sovereign bank control of wealth exchange with the bankers still taking a big cut.
        Here is a must-read article from Ellen Brown where she clearly explains how the banks plan to maintain their parasitism on all transactions. She also explains how payment systems in China do NOT involve this parasitism.
        The threat of a U.S. technology company taking up the model set by China's WeChat Pay and Alipay may now be materializing.
        The buzz around cryptocurrencies which were making headlines not long ago has finally abated. The time has come for the blockchain technology itself, says Russian tech entrepreneur Aleksandr Ivanov.


        Milton Friedman talks about how the world economy works without government.



        BTC is good for speculation for some people but, it just lacks stability.
        Charles Hugh Smith writes Local Government Is an Engine of Inflation
        The blob State generally expands without limit. It taxes and taxes.
        "Since personnel costs are 70+% of city and county budgets, those ever-increasing payroll, pension and benefits costs are the key driver of budgets expanding."
        Insolvency isn't restricted to private enterprise; governments go broke, too. One reason the economy is so much more precarious than adve...

        While Smith looks at government as an engine of inflation, this is the wrong way to look at things. The more money that the blob state sucks out of the producing economy, the more that it causes deflation of the rest of the economy. California is now owed more than $10 billion in unpaid fines. People just don't have the money to satisfy the demands of the blob State.

        That's what happens when you cut corners. I have a friend who was head of R&D at Rockwell. Rockwell clearly told NASA NOT to launch if it was too cold. On launch day, it was too cold. The NASA people said "we need to take off our engineering hats and, put on our public relations hats". So, the shuttle blew up.

        A good, warm rain will fix that.

        Comment


        • BTC,,,, more recession warnings

          The Swiss plan to pull the plug on their financial treaties with the EU.

          Britain has been trying to do the same.

          We all know that bitcoin is better than gold. It goes up faster.

          ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero


          The SDR didn't fly because nobody wanted that garbage. They are trying a different angle of attack.

          100% of the experts say that the economy is doing well. The working people,,,, not so good.


          Here is one takeaway from the debates.
          HotAir is the leading conservative blog for breaking news and commentary covering the Biden administration, politics, media, culture, and current elections.

          Tulsi Gabbard is campaigning against more wars.
          ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

          Treasonous Trump;
          Trump Rejected Attacking Iran 'We Don't Need Any More Wars'

          Just for the record, I hate facebook.

          Yep, might as well buy gold.

          How very strange. Consumption is falling even though the stock market is at all-time highs.
          They got 40 times the normal amount of snow in Colorado. Some of it seems to have made it's way to London.
          Reports of alleged cocaine use by UK lawmakers go back to at least 2013, with traces of the illegal class-A drug similarly found in bathrooms on the grounds of the parliamentary estate.

          Comment


          • Economic growth requires dramatic increases productivity... The economy would be how much richer without the financial sector?... 
            With the exception of 1967 and 1996, every initial easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has been associated with an oncoming or ongoing recession. Investors should recognize that there is a certain amount of information content in those initial rate cuts. Specifically, when the Federal Reserve shifts from tightening (or normalizing) monetary policy and instead begins a fresh round of rate cuts, it's a clear indication that something in the economy has gone wrong. Moreover, the historical evidence is very clear that when investor psychology shifts from speculation to risk-aversion, even persistent and aggressive Federal Reserve easing does nothing to support stocks.



            There is speculation that the Chinese Yuan could displace the U.S. dollar. Not going to happen any time soon. Capital flight is eating them up.


            Bitcoin Is All About Chinese Capital Flight - Forbes
            Trade war triggers capital flight - South China Morning Post
            China's Capital Outflows Are Suddenly Soaring Again... And Why This ...
            Quiet capital flight dents China's sway as $1.2tn 'disappears' - Nikkei .
            China constricts capital outflows with eye on yuan stability - Reuters


            China is trying to conquer 'The Impossible Trinity': an economic puzzle no-one has ever solved

            NOBODY can legislate stability and confidence. China is cracking down on Hong Kong. That, by itself will reduce confidence and, there is a lot fo money in Hong Kong.
            So, while stock market fundamentals have deteriorated greatly in American markets, there are other important markers that are very important.
            "unless our measures of internals have explicitly deteriorated"
            The Euro crashes, capital flees.
            The Yuan thrashes, capital flees.

            Comment


            • Wall Street's short-term incentives have decimated our defense industrial base and undermined our national security.



              Just a temporary glitch.


              Just a temporary glitch. It will all collapse in the spring of 2020/

              Deutsche bank is a zombie but, the jobs are real.

              Comment


              • Technocrats and bankers bring it all down

                "According to the McKinsey Global Institute report on consumer financial services, these three service areas generate approximately $6.6 trillion in annual revenue and has tended to grow at a 6% compound annual rate over the preceding decade." (2011)
                "The financial sector has drained as much as $22 trillion from the United States economy:"

                The financial sector can't possibly function without growth. To find this growth, they have had to cannibalize the productive sector. They are responsible to a great extent for the outsourcing to China and India.
                "The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests that financial services typically make up 20-30% of total service market revenue and about 20% of the total gross domestic product in developed economies."
                They produce nothing but, account for 20% of GDP,,, even more in America.
                "grow at a 6% compound annual rate"
                This is a LOT of growth. It takes a LOT of liquidity. The CBs have concentrated on floating their cronies with fresh liquidity.,,,, Reportedly, the latest total has reached $247 trillion.
                Reportedly,,," $184 trillion. Your share is $86,000"
                Why is it YOUR share. You didn't incur it nor, did you benefit from it.
                More importantly, you can't pay it. The CBs are on a treadmill with a 6% (compounding) incline.

                Besides the major sins of the bankers, we have technocrats who plan to rule it all.
                The Mind Of A Technocrat: Tech Oligarchs Are Worse Than The Robber Barons
                Tech oligarchs are the perfect examples of hard-core Technocrats, and they are proving to be worse than the Robber Barons of the Industrial Revolution.

                You'll End Up With Kleptocrats Rather Than Technocrats
                Global Research has an excellent article.

                The Rise of the Technocrats - Project MUSE - Johns Hopkins University
                Are Technocrats Taking Over Our Democracies? | Gaia
                Technocrats have taken over governments in Southern Europe.
                Technocrats: Minds like machines - The Economist https://www.economist

                The New Rulers Of The World - John Pilger
                johnpilger.com/videos/the-new-rulers-of-the-world

                So, where does this liquidity come from?
                Shadow banking is now a $52 trillion industry and posing risks
                https://www.cnbc.com/.../shadow-bank...-and-posing-ri..

                To the technocracy, only profits are important.
                How Britain stole $45 trillion from India | Colonialism | Al Jazeera
                New Study: Crime, Corruption, Tax Evasion Drained a Record US ...
                https://gfintegrity.org/.../new-stud...ed-a-record-us...
                Dec 15, 2014 - US$6.6 Trillion Stolen from Developing World from 2003-2012
                Concerns mount over reckless 2008-style lending in the $52 trillion shadow banking system.
                https://www.telegraph.co.uk


                Outsourcing to China Cost U.S. 3.2 Million Jobs Since 2001 | Data ...
                https://www.usnews.com
                If you prefer to listen to the author read this article, Click Here. We didn’t have a lot growing up, as my mom had to single-parent three kids. Most anything I wanted required disciplined frugality. I bought my first fly rod from Orvis at the age of 13, which took the better part of a...



                FT is a mouthpiece for many of the elite.

                Just like the pot growers who attracted the cops with their electric bill.
                After saying last year that Bitcoin itself probably wouldn’t exist in the long run, Edward Snowden appeared at the Bitcoin 2019 conference to discuss the ways that Bitcoin helps people in a world of increased surveillance. Snowden: I Bought Servers with BTC to Protect Privacy Snowden admitted that he had used the dominant cryptocurrency to […]


                America's control of the IMF and Swift gives them a LOT of leverage worldwide.

                Pox Americana has crashed SWIFT trying to block Iranian oil from the markets.

                Comment



                • Here is an excellent article from Charles Hugh Smith Morality and decay.
                  oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Following in Rome's Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Inequality


                  Well, if earnings per share is negative, you might as well buy gold.
                  Keep in mind that $trillions in stock buybacks was done specifically to raise EPS.

                  With a total of unfunded state liabilities reaching $213 trillion, this comes as no surprise.

                  Gotta keep the capital flight flowing.

                  Well, if earnings are negative, the plane is out of gas.

                  Forbes, "It's no coincidence that gold and bitcoin are both taking off this year."


                  Panic early and, avoid the rush.

                  Don't worry. That is exactly what America is going to get. When peak-cheap-oil finally sets in.

                  It was switched on 11 billion years ago.


                  Iran on EU Trade Mechanism to Bypass US Sanctions - 'Beautiful Car Without Fuel'

                  Tehran Mocks 'Totally Useless' US Sanctions as Europe's Iran Trade Mechanism Comes Online
                  Last edited by Danny B; 07-01-2019, 03:23 AM. Reason: spelling, of course

                  Comment


                  • Slipping confidence,,, Dems and war

                    The whole system depends on confidence AND greed. Everybody wants a chunk of the $trillions that the CBs are pumping in. The CBs have tried to make the situation so that there is no alternative TINA. They pumped liquidity into all the markets. Various corporations used $trillions to buy back stock so that there would be fewer shares outstanding. Earnings-per-share would go up even if gross earnings went down. Bonuses would get bigger. This sleight of hand, combined with capital inflows (from capital flight), has kept markets looking far better than fundamentals would indicate.
                    John Hussman Phd was focused on fundamentals alone and, lost a LOT of money for his clients. He finally focused on "other" factors and, got a more accurate picture.
                    U.S. Stocks Still Look Better Than Anywhere Else - Bloomberg


                    Jun 3, 2019 -


                    Just the same, these other factors have to deteriorate eventually. As they deteriorate, the money-renters stop looking for yield and, start trying to protect their principle. Money flees markets that have no future earnings. Since Russia already had their financial collapse, they are seeing inflows.
                    "Russia recorded a capital and financial account surplus of 31354.85 USD Million in the first quarter of 2019. Capital Flows in Russia averaged 9317.55 USD Million from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 33092.79 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2018"
                    Gold has gone up quite a bit as investors try to protect their principle.


                    As socialism bites, people try to get out. Same in Illinois. As taxes go, your home loses market value.



                    Nope, it's linked to currencies and treasury bonds. You can NOT have your transactional currency the same as your store-of-value. The strongest currency goes into hiding and, is used as a store of value. If the Libra was locked to a weight of gold, it would be stashed away and not circulate. The Libra looks to be nothing more than an electronic SDR. It would ultimately be controlled by the CBs.


                    They were warned back in 1989.

                    The CBs hate gold because it is an alternative to their fiat paper. They did everything that they could to drive it down. Many of them have thrown in the towel and, are now buyers. Keep in mind that they can just create new liquidity and buy gold for free. They want to hold gold but, at the same time, they don't want CB buying to drive up the price and attractiveness.


                    The existing tariffs are quite enough to crash China.

                    "Zombie companies in China's heavy industries are serviced by networks of ... calculated that zombie companies accounted for 9 per cent of China's total corporate debt. ..."
                    "The Federal Reserve Is About To Create A Lot More Zombies | The ...




                    Nobody will spend money on capacity-expansion when falling wages reduce aggregate purchasing power. The banks demanded $trillions of new money so that they could restart loans and get the economy going again. They just deposited this money at the FED to collect a few points of interest. MUCH safer than loaning it out to support a shrinking economy.

                    WAIT, Wall st. is having their best time ever.

                    Deutsche bank is valued at $14 billion and, they are going to spin off a $50 billion "bad bank"


                    16 hours ago"

                    NOPE, we can't let the illegals suffer and discomfiture. DEMS, 2-faced killing 8astards.
                    "For the last century, America has been led by one war party or another.
                    Democratic administrations brought us into the evils of World War I (Woodrow Wilson), World War II (Franklin Delano Roosevelt), the Korean War (Harry S. Truman), and the Viet Nam War (Lyndon Baines Johnson)."
                    "A hundred years of wars have all but destroyed the American economy with taxes, while putting us in such a debt-debacle there is not enough money in the world to pay off the interest and principal the private and foreign shylocks claim we owe them.

                    Worse yet, these wars have taken a most savagely devastating toll on the personal freedoms of those whose nation was once the freest in the world."


                    "High-ranking Democratic Party officials have told associates of Lyndon LaRouche that the DLC was launched in order to stop the takeover of the party by LaRouche, as well as others who were working to bring the party back to its Franklin Roosevelt orientation.

                    - Bury FDR, Bring in the Bull Moose -

                    Roosevelt himself, speaking to labor, the poor, Depression-wrecked farmers, the forgotten man, in his 1933 Inaugural Address, blasted "the rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods.... Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion.... Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership.... [T]he money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization.... Our greatest task is to put people to work.... [T]here must be a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments; there must be an end to speculation with other people's money...."

                    "The DLC, sponsored by the criminal element Roosevelt denounced, has boldly announced their intention to bury Roosevelt's Democratic Party. In the September 1998 issue of their magazine, {Blueprint}, DLC strategists William Galston and Elaine Kamarck propounded certain supposed "Realities That Will Shape 21st Century Politics," whose main premise is that "the New Deal era has ended."

                    They declare that America has a "declining working class"--and that is good for politics. They celebrate the collapse of labor unions in the hyper-speculative New Economy, and applaud "the decline of organized labor as a force within the Democratic Party." The "Hollowing Out of the Middle Class" is "mostly for the better"; the "widening gap between the wealthy and the poor" is a good development!"




                    Spoken by a former barista.
                    In a general sense, it wasn't mainstream Dems that endorsed the war party The party was hijacked by the DLC. In later years, it would be HRC that brought the focus of the Dems to a continual war footing.
                    Tulsi Gabbard is forcing the Dems to take an open stand on the wars.

                    Comment



                    • To a certain extent, those leaky zombies were floated to provide a continuation of employment.

                      Here is an article from Armstrong proving that NO NYC bank has ever been prosecuted for robbery. MUCH of America's financial capital is concentrated in NYC. What will happen in the inevitable melt down?

                      The article mentions something that I have written about before. NOBODY has any physical proof of ownership such as stock certificates. EVERYTHING is held in the name of Depository Trust Company (Cede & Co).
                      The physical certificates were held in a vault in NYC. The vault was left open as hurricane Sandy approached and, the certificates were mostly ruined. THEN, there was a fire.

                      'Wealthy' Chicago Households On Hook For $2 Million In Debt Each Under 'Progressive Solution' To Pension Crisis
                      Germany Plans to Cut Military Spending in 2020-2023 in Affront to US - Report
                      They shouldn't do that. You never know when France might invade again.
                      FRANCE ATTACKED GERMANY FIRST - Tomato Bubble
                      tomatobubble.com/id804.html

                      Iranian MP Warns 'Only Half an Hour Will Remain of Israel's Lifespan' if US Attacks Iran
                      3 years ago, Haaretz published an article that quoted the IDF and stated; Iran has 231,000 missiles that it can launch at israel. No amount of searching with google or Duckduckgo seems to turn up this article.
                      The current claim is that israel has 200 nukes that it can shoot at Iran. The IDF report states that israel can expect to receive 11,000 missiles a minute. Bummer


                      It was originally projected that China would need to cull 400 million hogs. Now, it is expected to get worse.

                      You have to admit that ransomware is an excellent business model.

                      I'll be very happy to see ALL fusion power die a gruesome death. There are 231,000 fuel rods in pools in America that must be maintained with no accidents. Japan is covered with stored radioactive material. Parts of Chernobyl are covered with 2 meter thick steel plates. The dirty material just keeps piling up.
                      If you read at Eagle Research, they have very interesting articles showing that; the flame from burning HHO gas can REMOVE the radioactivity from radioactive materials.


                      Well, family formation is shrinking too.

                      No kidding. Maybe it is tied to consumption. Buy gold if stocks have no earnings.

                      France has long been out of compliance with EU debt rules.

                      This was reported in Eurasia review. Don't expect it to be reported here.

                      Yeah, really strange.

                      Trump said, no new Fear of losing EVERYTHING
                      Only to a certain point


                      The MMT camel sticks his nose further into the tent

                      Comment


                      • If the banks go up, everything else must go down.

                        Charles Hugh Smith' "The keys to understanding the concealed crisis of decline are purchasing power relative to wages/earnings--how many goods and services can wages buy? For the average American household, wages have risen modestly while the purchasing power of those wages has plummeted. "
                        "Bottom line: how much housing, higher education and well-being does the average wage buy now compared to decades past? Not much. The statistics are bleak: wages are basically unchanged from the high water mark 50 years ago, which coincidentally was also the high water mark of U.S. energy production until very recently. Adjusted for purchasing power and quality, the average paycheck buys far less than it did 50 years ago. "
                        So, what happened 50 years ago? That would be 1970, when the last link to the gold standard was broken. Who broke that link? It is attributed to Nixon But, his predecessors were the ones who ran up the bills and broke the bank. That would be the welfare-warfare state.
                        Charles Smith, Charles Hugh Smith, Charles H. Smith, journalist, writer, author, novelist, screenwriter, wEssay, wEssays, Four Bidding for Love, Of Two Minds, I-State Lines, Verona in Spring, A Hacker's Teleology, For My Daughter, Claire's Great Adventure, Kama Sutra Cadillac, People's Party of Hawaii, oftwominds.com, oftwominds.net, financial crisis, financial meltdown, recession, U.S. economy, Hapa, Hapas, multi-ethnic, multi-heritage, multiracial, Asia, China, China's economy, How I Fell In Love With A Homeless Woman, book reviews, film reviews, Japan, advice for aspiring writers, stock market, i-statelines.com, Daz and Alex, peak oil, inflation, deflation, sustainability, housing crash, housing bubble, grow your own food, nutrition, what's for dinner at your house, Readers Journal, peak oil, Weblogs and New Media, Marketing in Crisis, Survival+, Survival Plus, Structuring Prosperity for Yourself and the Nation, Survival+ The Primer, Oftwominds.com Weekly Musings, Weekly Musings Reports, An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times, investing, personal finance, Resistance, Revolution, Liberation: A Model for Positive Change, political philosophy, Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It, The Nearly Free University, the emerging economy, Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy, jobs, careers, A Radically Beneficial World: Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All: The Future Belongs to Work That Is Meaningful, Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform, Of Two Minds Essentials, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege, Money and Work Unchained, The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher, Pathfinding our Destiny, Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic

                        The rise of currency inflation has brought the greatest gains to the finance industry.

                        France recently discovered that they had been paying a salary to people who hadn't shown up for work since 1989.



                        Communication is just too good. Nobody is convinced.

                        "Abstract

                        Due to the increasing value of the dollar, world oil prices rose rather than fell relative to the price of OECD exports between 1980 and 1984. The real crude oil price of OECD countries increased by approximately 30% more than its counterpart for the USA. "
                        Energy is the master resource. Much of the prosperity in America is due to the fact that oil-priced in dollars gives us an advantage over most other countries. Fracking has lost $208 billion dollars and, is subsidised by the FED pumping up the junk bond market.
                        The FED continues to cheapen the value of the dollar. At the same time, America needs to hold down the price of oil. $10 dollar diesel fuel would cut way back on commerce.
                        America reached peak-cheap-oil decades ago. How long can it deflate the value of the dollar and still afford to buy oil?
                        Annual inflation peaked at 9.06% in June '22, fell to 2.44% in September '24 before rising to 3.00% in January 2025. Then it rose to 3.81% in April 2026 due to the Iran war.



                        Winner-take-all economic sounds OK, just like globalism sounds OK. It just doesn't work out in practice.

                        What a mess !

                        Pretty soon, the BOJ will have to print babies.
                        CBN news reports that separation of church and State is problematic for lefties in Calif.

                        Comment


                        • Inflation, Interest rates and the FED rate

                          It is interesting to me how the different groups of people respond or react to the raw "information" that is broadcast concerning these three subjects.

                          The large percent of the population that have no reserves, savings and investments (cash based poor) added to the additional large part of the population that are in debt but have jobs or other regular income with which to make payments (debt-credit poor, negative net worth) comprise the first "group". This large group, I would say, have a common view of this subject. It makes up perhaps 80 to 95 percent of the U.S. population?

                          Their view? In general?
                          Inflation: Negatively affected but mostly ignored because it is "future"
                          Interest rates: They don't care as long as they are not "too painful"
                          FED rate: They don't care and don't feel any need to understand it.

                          Group 2: People with a positive net worth, debts (if any) are well within their ability to pay, not "tied" to the financial industry.

                          Their view?
                          Inflation? Not worried.
                          Interest rates? Can be managed.
                          FED rate: "Does not affect me"
                          Size of group? Hmmm... 1 to 10 percent? I dunno.

                          Group 3: Tied to the financial industry but "dependent"
                          Inflation? Very worried
                          Interest rates? Very worried
                          FED rate: True believers. In denial because the system is "failing"
                          Size of group? 10 percent?

                          Group 4: Tied to the financial industry but "in power", "controllers", "elite"
                          Inflation? "bring it on", afraid of deflation
                          Interest rates? Afraid of massive defaults if they get "too high"
                          FED rate? Worried that the "masses" will get spooked.
                          Size of group? very small.... Is this the 1%?

                          So, Is this a reasonable perspective on the situation?

                          It seems to me that as long as the first three groups don't rock the boat too much or "wake up" that this situation can go along for quite a while. And this mass of humanity is by and large apathetic.

                          I would like to think more about this and it is a problem to consider when reading some of your posts. Any other comments?
                          There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.

                          Comment


                          • What happens when State finances collapse/

                            Wayne, your numbers all sound reasonable. I don't know because i follow data sets more than I do confidence levels in different cohorts. On the question of confidence, I can look around at the people I see. Los Angeles is a major port for the trans-pacific trade. Just L.A. and Long beach unload 54,000 containers a day. Much of this stuff is reworked and trans-shipped from here. I don't know what is going on in other places as far as first hand information.
                            As far as confidence, I frequently quote Martin Armstrong. I've cited his accuracy record MANY times. Armstrong calls for a collapse of American sovereign debt. This is a HUGE turning point in his models. Could he be wrong? Not very likely.
                            51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. 45 million receive direct assistance. If you assume a collapse down to the point where GOV can only spend what it takes in, much of that 51% is going to be $hit out of luck.
                            Projecting just this one data point means a collapse of commerce and society.
                            Mises said many years ago; "there is no escaping the final dissolution of a credit bubble."
                            Could he be wrong this time? Doubtful.

                            At the moment, it looks like Europe is going to go down in flames before America.

                            Substitute "unqualified" for unelected.


                            As far as confidence levels, they just aren't tuned in to the actual situation. The post-war boom that America experienced is dying a hard, slow death in the minds of many people.


                            Too many people are hyper-extending their "normalcy bias"

                            Chicago figured that the would get the state to cover their losses. Everybody thinks that somebody is going to pick up their tab.
                            The confidence level IS turning but, slowly.


                            I suspect that if every American was aware of the truth of the country's finance, there would eb a lot more preppers.


                            Democratic Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson asserted that people who mock members of Congress online should face prosecution."Those people who are online

                            Congressional approval is normally 20% or less. How do they figure that we have a democracy?

                            Kunstler was certain

                            The latest
                            They say that he has politicised the 4th of July.

                            The FED doesn't really have to print lots of money to cause inflation.
                            Armstrong, "ANSWER: Once upon a time before 1971, there used to be a difference between debt and cash. Government bonds were not acceptable for collateral. You could not borrow against them. You had to liquidate them. This is why they once believed that it was LESS INFLATIONARY to borrow than print."
                            "We have returned to that whereby TBills are a street name and are good collateral so they have become the equivalent of bearer bonds that merely serve the purpose of currency."
                            ANSWER: Once upon a time before 1971, there used to be a difference between debt and cash. Government bonds were not acceptable for collateral. You could not

                            When we broke the last link to the gold standard, the FED was able to go crazy printing bonds. They didn't have to print currency to cause inflation. All these bonds were pumped through the bankers.

                            Comment


                            • globalism = unworkable,,, trade deficits

                              Reportedly, Germany is collapsing because of the "green" agenda.

                              This includes their power grid.
                              The German power grid crashed on three separate days during June which was so critical, it required neighboring countries to come to its rescue to prevent a

                              Right now, Alaska has a terrible heat wave. What happens to Europe when it gets hit by another heat wave? They don't even have A.C. in many places? The unfolding of the next solar cycle is going to cause a lot of damage and distress.

                              "Allowing cash to die would be a grave mistake. A cashless society is a surveillance society. The recent round of protests in Hong Kong highlights exactly what we have to lose."
                              "This week, anti-extradition protests reached another crescendo,"
                              "In Hong Kong, most people use a contactless smart card called an "Octopus card"
                              "But no one used their Octopus card to get around Hong Kong during the protests. The risk was that a government could view the central database of Octopus transactions to unmask these democratic ne'er-do-wells. Traveling downtown during the height of the protests? You could get put on a list, even if you just happened to be in the area.
                              So the savvy subversives turned to cash instead."

                              The world is waking up to the fact that; you can't have production in one place and, consumption in another. Recently, Germany had a $1 trillion trade surplus and, the rest of the EU had a $1 trillion trade deficit. While things were good, German flew very high. When the rest of the EU ran out of money, even Germany fell. The same is true for China. They did very well until their customers ran out of money. Now, China is falling fast.
                              America has a common public debt market in the U.S. treasury. Armstrong warned the eurocrats back in 1997? that no common currency had ever survived unless the currency union had a common debt union. Being politicians (idiots) they persisted and, went ahead with their plans to force the union. (keep voting until you get it right)

                              This whole globalism scheme has thrown markets way out of balance. China doesn't want to change because they benefited so much. The Eurozone doesn't want to change because they are pig-headed politicians who dream of a tightly controlled corporatocracy ruling all Europe. Commenting on Italy's huge deficit, "they" said that the Italians should become more like the Germans.

                              This imbalance is reflected in trade imbalances. The trade imbalances, specifically, the trade deficits, are making the system UNWORKABLE.
                              take a look at this chart,


                              "May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports.
                              May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.
                              The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion "
                              The FED can't stop printing or, we have to cut way back on imports.
                              "Deficits: Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1)."

                              I seriously doubt that globalism can be unravelled peacefully.


                              This is no grand experiment. The BOJ is trying to save everything on the island.

                              Why not, Chicago is already bankrupt.

                              So, get rid of the military and, cut back on worthless expenditures.

                              Thank Amazon.
                              Beijing insists all US tariffs should be removed for a trade deal to happen
                              Note to Xi, don't hold your breath.
                              'Architect of Austerity' George Osborne Aims to Replace Former IMF Chief Lagarde - Report
                              Why not? austerity has a proven track record of being completely destructive.

                              Globalist Tech Companies Appear To Be Poised To Boycott Trump Social Media Summit, Spox Silent
                              STUPID They seem to think that Trump and the FCC have no power over them. They could go to the summit and, argue their case for continued independence. Nope, they prefer to p[rove their stupidity. They viciously attack Trump, et al. They lie about EVERYTHING. They spy on everybody. They seem to think that they have too much popular support to get FED GOV to put a hex on them. WRONG, they don't have very much popular support at all.

                              Comment


                              • Gold and, the discipline of the printing press

                                To recap, at one time, the FED was constrained on how much currency it could print by the amount of gold in the Treasury. The private banks were constrained on how much credit they could create by the amount of reserves they held.
                                Thanks to the welfare-warfare State, gold was leaving the treasury at the rate of 100 tons a week in summer of 1971. When Britain notified that the treasury that they were going to pick up <3360> tons, Nixon slammed shut the gold window 4 days later. He was subsequently eviscerated. Once we were off the international gold standard, the FED was able to create as much debt paper as it wanted.

                                With the change in regulations, treasury bonds became "money". They could be used as collateral. Banks could buy treasury bonds without their working capital tied up in something that was not liquid. In essence, this doubled the "money" in circulation as far as FED created "money". The FED also sent lots of "money" to the private bankers to be held as excess reserves. The FED paid interest on these reserves,,, free interest paid on the free money.
                                In addition to FED created free money, the banks took your savings to buy up everything and, speculate against the final consumer. When your savings were not enough to keep all of this going, they were given trainloads of fresh money. This meant that they didn't have to pay interest to get your savings.
                                No wonder Wall St. is having the Best time in history.
                                FED GOV is deathly afraid of a collapse so, they go along with the printing.
                                Everybody is caught in a trap that originated when the constraints of gold were removed.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X