Economic pressures

[Danny B]

ZH, Facebook and the slow burn

I started writing on global cooling 10 years ago. The idea is slowly catching on .

https://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic.php?t=26584

Zero Hedge put up this article showing that the libs have gone completely crazy in higher education.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-11/50-actual-college-courses-prove-americas-universities-are-training-students-become

Shortly after that, Facebook blocked ANY links to ZH articles.

https://www.rt.com/news/453593-zero-hedge-facebook-complaints/

Facebook Reverses Zero Hedge Ban, Says It Made A "Mistake"
Everything that the libs do seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to something that upsets them..

Meanwhile, Cheney is pissed off because we don't have enough wars.

https://www.rt.com/usa/453583-dick-cheney-attacks-pence-isolationism/

Daily Reckoning has praised Trump as the "do nothing" president,,,, referring to his lack of wars.
Armstrong has been recognised worldwide as being correct on his investment advice. He has warned loud and clear about the collapse of public debt. Nobody will buy sovereign debt. The CBs send truckloads of pixels to each other that they sue to buy each others debt. While stocks are referenced to some tangible object or service, bonds are just a hope & prayer credit instrument. Stocks are more-or-less hanging in there but, bonds aren't doing well at all.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-13/sp-500-opens-above-key-technical-level-bonds-aint-buying-it

Various corporations and other entities sell bonds to borrow money. There is no requirement that these bonds and companies have any visible means to repay these bonds. The bonds are just rated. Any downturn in the economy lowers this rating.
There are a couple hundred $billion in bonds that are VERY shakey. Just the same, companies MUST rollover these short term notes. Buffet said, when the tide goes out, you will see who has been swimming naked. It looks like January 2020 is when the tide goes out.
U.S. public debt is rising tremendously as GOV tries to pump up everybody who is failing. This transfers the risk to the public sector. Eventually, we will see just how long GOV can fake it.
California is quite the generous Sate, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...0000-pensions/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-12/global-economy-time-bomb-waiting-explode

[Danny B]

Investor: The Next 20 Years In The Stock Market Will "Break A Lot Of Hearts"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-13/global-economic-reset-begins-engineered-crash

Party on Wayne.

[Danny B]

Thrashing about to preseve the power structure

Containerized shipping ushered in outsourcing from high-wage economies. It crashed down remuneration in the domestic productive sector. The bankers convinced the State that they must be allowed to grossly inflate the upper loop of the economy and, the "trickle down" would buoy up the lower loop. Well, it didn't work that way. The trickle down stimulated the gig economy but, did nothing for manufacturing or wages.
It did however, create price inflation that eroded away the purchasing power of the wages that had become static. The State does not consider inflation of the upper loop when figuring the inflation numbers that affect the lower loop. Shadowstats has long publicised the "true" inflation numbers. I write "true" in quotation marks because Shadowstats is still using government data to get their results.
They use a previous methodology from the State to get what they consider to be a more accurate result,,, instead of the heavily massaged data.
The Dallas FED has now come out with a methodology that includes the inflation of the upper loop.

https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-the-true-inflation-rate/

What it shows is; there was absolutely NO JUSTIFICATION for the money pumping and QE. Keep in mind that the FED strives mightily to create 2% price inflation and,,, cries when it can't accomplish this. Former FED head, Paul Volker came out clearly and said that there was NO JUSTIFICATION for a 2% inflation target. The only "justification" for QE and asset inflation is to rescue the money renters.
When the arrival of the global-mean-wage wiped out the productive class, it SHOULD have wiped out much of the speculative class. Regulatory capture held this crash at bay for a time. This scheme is rapidly winding down,,, from a historical perspective.

51% of Americans receive a check from the State. This has just gotten too expensive.
Good article;
"This demand cannot be met, and so society decays into warring elites and competing constituencies. The only real solution--to make severe sacrifices in order to live within the modest means available and jettison the parasitic elites--is politically and culturally unpalatable to a citizenry steeped in a belief that good times should be forever and it's the fault of the ruling party of the moment rather than a failure of the entire system."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

[Danny B]

A little doom here,,, a little gloom there.

So, we are rapidly approaching the end of a credit super-cycle. We are sinking into the Fourth Turning.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-13/12-statistics-prove-us-facing-consumer-debt-apocalypse

The money renters temporarily severed the link to the wealth producers. Their time will come.
Armstrong, "I cannot stress enough that Mario Draghi has really destroyed the European economy on an unprecedented scale."
"His policy of perpetual low to negative interest rates is a barbaric ancient theory based on the assumption that if you make it insanely cheap to borrow, people will run out and buy everything"
They will buy speculative instruments, NOT tangibles.
"He has kept this failed theory up for 10 years without success. He owns the bulk of sovereign debt in Europe; he cannot sell or even stop rolling over without causing a major debt crisis among member states. "
"Add to that the fact that Draghi never considered the impact upon those who saved all their lives to retire and suddenly discovered their life savings earned nothing"
"With the economy turning down hard once again into 2020, he has no means to even try to pretend he can manage the economy. We are headed into a NEW ERA in which the belief in central banks and government being in control is about to collapse before our eyes."
, NO, not the FED !

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/draghi-the-opportunity-the-nightmare/

"Number of Days Congress Works in Session a Year. The House of Representatives has averaged 138 "legislative days" a year since 2001, according to records kept by the Library of Congress. That's about one day of work every three days, or fewer than three days a week."
If they do that for 5 years, they get lifetime retirement of 80% of their $174,000 annual salary.
"Public local, state, and federal pension funds are in even worse shape: $7 TRILLION short on what they promised to pay retired government workers."
This true but, congress gets retirement money out of the general fund, NOT the pension fund.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-14/one-thing-congress-gets-right-funding-their-own-pensions

The rest of us will eat cake. They just don't have much time to work because they are busy accepting bribes and campaign money.

Along with congress, there is another entity that doesn't have to worry about finance.

https://sputniknews.com/us/201903131073210222-israeli-military-aid-trump-2020-budget-proposal/

The spooks seem to get all the money they need.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/20/the-multibillion-dollar-u-s-spy-agency-you-havent-heard-of-trump/

[wayne.ct]

The party died!

Daniel 5. The core of the problem for the ruling class in that story/parable/myth (Whatever!) is a lack of understanding. Okay, perhaps that is not the core issue. Back on track... One component of the story is that the king and his counselors could not understand the words and the message behind the words. Everyone else in the city most likely understood the situation on the ground. The enemy was in the process of diverting the river, a major engineering achievement for that era. But the troops on the ground were politically correct and did not close the river gates. The words and their meaning were obvious to the seer. Enough of that.

The PTB refuse to understand money, morals, etc. and the mindless followers are trapped in a web of lies. The father of lies is gleeful. The courtesans use double entendre and the sheep follow right along. Nothing will surprise me. It should be obvious but some people refuse to listen or understand. People are getting dumber, not wiser. I have no words to explain because every word I might use seems to have been compromised by the sophisticated intelligentsia.

[Danny B]

MMT to euthanasia

wayne ct. Yes, it's a sad situation. I just try to bring a little clarity out of the confusion. I also try to discard the B.S.

This is the short version tonight.

"But, after over 60 different 'stimulus' measures in the last few months and last night's promises, nothing seems to be working as China's economic data continues to tumble."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-15/chinas-looming-liquidity-shortage-or-why-endless-stimulus-isnt-working

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/is-perpetual-prosperity-a-fictional-dream/

The FED was hitched up to birth the warfare state. After Bretton Woods, the FED was hitched up to birth the welfare State. Warfare being the most important of the 2. After all, social security was raided to fund wars.
" The ECB and the Bank of Japan fund their government debts without end, and they have both destroyed their bonds markets"
It is only a lack of transparency that allows the FED to appear to have stopped QE.
"The ECB cannot sell the bonds it has already bought. They have already stated that as bonds mature, they will reinvest that money aside from any new purchases because there is no market. Since they have destroyed their own bond markets, we are UNLIKELY to see a crash if there are no bids and offers. They will simply pretend that sovereign debt is perfectly fine."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/can-european-sovereign-debt-really-crash-without-a-free-market/

The BOJ prints trillions to uphold their markets. Is that any different from MMT?
The ECB prints trillions to uphold State debt. Is that any different from MMT?
The FED is doing the same thing,,, only, on the sly.
Where does this all lead. If the CB prints whatever money is needed in the economy, what happens to the money renter?
Keynes had it all figured out.

https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/negative-yields-the-euthanasia-of-the-rentier-political-economy-dc3131d8d85e

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800911004873

Remember that the anti-MMT people claim that we would get high inflation. Didn't happen in Japan. Even China has low inflation in most sectors.

[Danny B]

From war finance to welfare finance

From a paper by the G-30, "Central banks were first established in the 17th
century, with the primary purpose of providing war finance to governments"
Page 17 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...dV8tWdVR3unFAt

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-cenbank/central-bank-cavalry-can-no-longer-save-the-world-idUSKCN0S40VE20151010

https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-that-central-banks-assure-economic-stability/

The vast majority of bureaucrats "working" for the State know that they would have no job in the competitive private sector. Both the deep state and the blob state together are overpowering the productive sector. A collapse of the sovereign bond market will leave all of them without employment.

[Danny B]

The fallout from saving the money renters.

Lots of notes.
"Take a look at the S&P Value Index vs the S&P Growth Index. Shunned!"

https://3lrofj3556kl9zu0p27yma51-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/sc-31.png

ALL credit bubbles came to an end. We are approaching the end of a debt super-cycle. The State is the biggest deadbeat borrower. Both the state and the banks are trying to hold back a collapse. This bubble is bigger than all previous bubbles.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-standard/images/chart1-2019-03-14.png

Another graph, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=4FcBQujG

https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-schiff-destroyed-economic-foundations/

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works

9 steps to socialism.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/there-are-just-nine-steps-from-freedom-to-socialism-to-societal-breakdown

Everybody is trying to raise cash.
It may look good now. Just wait til China demands infrastructure in case of default.

[Danny B]

It pays to own the governent

The MMT people say that GOV can just print the money that it needs. RIDICULOUS ! They say that the GOV doesn't need to tax. RIDICULOUS !
BUT, the Grace Commission formed by Ronald Reagan reported that not one dime of tax money goes to support the government. So, who does it support?

https://archive.org/stream/TheGraceCommissionReport-RevealedIrsFrontForBankingDynastiesIn1984/TheGraceCommisionReport-RevealedIrsFrontForBankingDynastiesIn1984_djvu.txt

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/trump-taxes/

The 16th amendment, Passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913,
How very strange, we got an income tax at the same time that we got a central bank.
Then, there is the question of legitimacy,

https://www.givemeliberty.org/features/taxes/notratified.htm

By strange coincidence, birth rates and population growth are just a fraction of what they used to be decades ago.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/global-recession-hard-landing/

Smells like soap bubbles.

[Danny B]

Print money to save jobs,,, just keep the wages low

I find excellent articles at Zero Hedge BUT, when I log on to their site, this is what it does to my computer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JKBQnNs_wk

As everyone knows, the rich run the government, not the voters. The rich in a high-wage country will always try to force wages down to compete with low-wage countries. Here is a good article showing how the Aussie government has passed numerous laws to destroy collective bargaining and depress wages.

https://theconversation.com/ultra-low-wage-growth-isnt-accidental-it-is-the-intended-outcome-of-government-policies-113357

This has come full circle to where the global mean wage just won't support anything except a survival economy with no discretionary spend on things like children.

Years of research shows that; when sovereign debt crosses the 80% of GDP figure, investors are driven away. States have always needed outside investors to buy their bonds.

Since the BOJ is printing fresh money to buy GOV debt, there is little worry that investors won't buy it. The BOJ also owns 70% of exchange traded funds. They are buying up everything that isn't nailed down.
Armstrong laments that Draghi has destroyed confidence in the European sovereign debt markets. Wait a minute. As long as Draghi and Kuroda keep printing, they don't need to worry about confidence. Japan has hit 250% and hyperinflation never appeared.
Was this a test case to see if MMT could be implemented without inflation risk?

They're working out the details.

If only the CB has a printing press, EVERYBODY is dependent on the CB for liquidity. That includes the banks. Will the State / CB take over the private banks if / when they crash?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-19/european-banks-inescapable-doom-loop

Is this a prelude to "euthanasia of the rentier"?
Just how long can the fantasy bubble keep going?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-19/market-cycles-signal-imminent-collision-between-reality-widespread-fantasy

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-18/fed-insider-comes-clean-everything-bubble

The BOJ has pumped in trillions by buying exchange traded funds. Governments worldwide are buying up corporate paper to keep the zombies alive. After all, the Zombies employ lots of people.
The State has a choice. Keep people employed working for the State and the zombies OR, let it all go and lose legitimacy in the eyes of the population.
Good article on the decline of globalization.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/decline-of-globalization-at3zD5wP602qrh6mlQfh2Q/

Government is growing faster than the private sector. That has never worked out before.

http://www.batr.org/totalitariancollectivism/031919.html

[Danny B]

CBs and money renting

Rome, "But then growth peaked, the empire became extended, it could no longer afford its military might, its culture peaked, internal strive became pervasive while foreign adversaries kept challenging its predominance and the people lost trust in its government as corruption and nepotism became the primary means to power and influence."

https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/18/the-end-of-trust/

Armstrong, "ANSWER: The key to pushing capital fleeing into the stock market will be the decline in public confidence within the government. Everything is unfolding on schedule. You see turmoil everywhere from Canada to France and Italy. The level of people distrusting government is climbing. Normally, it will take a 45% level of people turning against the government to set off the spark."
"So no, there still does not appear to be a major crash of 50-62% (stocks) as the majority are calling. The market is testing resistance, but here too we do not see this as breaking out and taking off just yet. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-stock-market-up-away-or-crash-burn/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/are-bonds-preferable-to-stocks-in-a-crisis/

The money-renters always demand a legal tender that is flexible so that they can speculate. Only a State issued paper currency fits this description because the State has taxing powers to fill the treasury. Private banks don't have taxing power so they can not respond to a bank run. A flexible currency is generally a good idea. BUT, any entity that is allowed to print currency will always over-print. It was the State that forced the FED to print to support wars.
What is needed is DISCIPLINE.
What politicians need is VOTES.
War mongers need WARS.

As the corporatocracy increases in wealth and power, it displaces public governance.

https://theoutline.com/post/7216/we-are-already-ruled-by-private-governments-and-they-suck?zd=3&zi=g2jpwyqs

Regulatory capture is working out well for the money-renters.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-19/while-nation-fragments-socially-financial-aristocracy-rules-unimpeded

[Danny B]

China crash before U.S. crash

Much of the liquidity flowing into American markets came from China. Trump wants to end globalism and, that means decoup0ling from China.
US and China: From Co-Evolution to Decoupling | YaleGlobal Online

https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/us-and-china-co-evolution-decoupling

. Trump doesn't particularly want a trade agreement with China, He just wants them to crash. They are extremely vulnerable in the event of big job losses. Everything was previously focused on an export economy. They took the jobs of their best customers and, that model is broken. They planned to switch to a domestic consumption model. That didn't work because they couldn't raise wages.
Currently, they ( and the West print money to keep zombie employees working in zombie companies. It's not working out too well for them.

China is now locked in a battle; economic growth or political authority. Somebody is going to get the shaft. Trump is shoving the collapse ahead.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/03/15/china_is_at_the_forefront_of_a_global_economic_reverse_103663.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=mixi&utm_campaign=realclearmarkets

[Danny B]

Distortions eevrywhere,,, the CBs are stuck with "control P"

The Philips Curve is an equation that was previously relied on for economic forecasting.

Economics Help
The Phillips curve is an economic concept developed by A. W. Phillips stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment"
Now, there is general agreement that the Philips Curve is no longer accurate or applicable.
Unemployment is touted as 3.8% even though there are 96 million of working age who are not in the labor force. I suspect that the Philip's Curve has been highly distorted by automation and lies.

An inverted yield curve is the interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments.
A yield curve inversion shows that investors lack confidence in the near future.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kenRSs6okELVQ/
Most interest rates are all referenced to the 10 year treasury note. Since the FED GOV is printing to buy Treasury bonds, you can bet that any reference to the 10 year note and any inversions is based on bogus information.

Just the same, investors are completely focused on these inversions.

Powell raised interest rates and caused a worldwide coronary infarction. Trump definitely wants a weak dollar and, Powell was going the opposite direction. After the markets cratered, Powell changed his mind. He didn't want the blame for setting off a meltdown.


It is now painfully clear that fresh money printing is the only thing that is keeping markets alive. So, why did Powell raise rates?

The banks are toast without fresh blood.
Not to mention stocks.


You can see socialism in action without having to leave America. The Dems are completely irresponsible when it comes to buying votes with promises.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/the_financial_collapse_of_the_democratic_mayors.html

Their population is falling and their foreign markets are shrinking but, growth will come back if they just give the banks enough money.

So, the future little canucks will get to pay this off.

Sorry, this just isn't the answer.

A jobs program for useless paper-pushers.


Is it any surprise that he is from Senegal?

Another interesting development, https://www.rt.com/news/454259-europ...rnment-survey/

[Danny B]

Worldwide QE,,, the cure for poverty

Last night's FOMC meeting made it official: the Fed has thrown in the towel, and central banks are committed to defying the business cycle

https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/03/21/the-fed-has-surrendered-and-heres-what-comes-next

https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/21/recession-is-coming/

Wait, what about the Wall Street banks?

https://ellenbrown.com/2019/03/21/monetary-policy-takes-center-stage-mmt-qe-or-public-banks/

Keynes, "Keynes wrote a lovely little essay, Economic Prospects for our Grandchildren, in which he airily forecast that in a century's time (he wrote in 1930) we would all be working 15 hour weeks. For we would have, essentially, conquered the economic problem of scarcity."
"But this is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long
run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the
standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be
between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. There would be nothing"
"Economic growth over that time has been of that order. We are about 8 times richer than our grandparents were in the early 1930s."
NOT true, we can't afford a house or kids.

"However, here's the crucial forecast by Keynes:

For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody
will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for
ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties
and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread
thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely
shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the
problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the
old Adam in most of us!"

Keynes was aware of the problems with human nature.
So, how were the PTB to keep us working full time? They had to steal the value of our wages through constant currency inflation,,, resulting in price inflation. The bankers did their part by taking our money and, speculating against us. The State charged us about 40% of our income for taxes to keep us on the treadmill. President Reagan said that the grace commission proved that "not one dime of tax money goes to the federal government. "
Walter Burien at CAFR 1 has proved that GOV doesn't need to collect taxes. 37,000 government agencies have about $237 trillion stashed away from fines, fees and licenses. The University of California system reports in their Annual CAFR report that they have assets of $91 billion. One example of 37,000.

https://www.cafr1.com/

The PTB constantly suck dry the producer. The growing problem is that; robots don't pay taxes. Say's Law was created at a time when everything was produced by a worker who received a wage.
Determined to keep us working, the military-industrial-banking complex creates enormous quantities of goods to be destroyed,,, rather than improving our standard of living.
The emerging socialists talk of taking wealth from the super rich. This really isn't a viable idea. Wages can't really be raised in a competitive economy. What does that leave?
After Great Depression I, the Glass-Steagal act took our savings away from the banks so that they could not frontrun and speculate against us.
Slick Willy repealed this with the Graham-Leachy-Bliley act.

A return of Glass-Stegal would reverse decades of price inflation.
Armstrong said that FED GOV should just print the money it needs to pay it's bills. This would remove the income tax drain on everybody.
The finance sector went from being 7% of the economy to being about 40% of the economy. How can a parasite grow so big when it is just a non-producer? 50% of the cost (average) of everything that you buy is for is for upstream finance.
A realistic cure for poverty is not,,, raising wages or taking money from the rich.
Pry loose the finance sector from the jugular vain of commerce.
Then, maybe we can talk about the 15 hour work week.

[BroMikey]

Smoke and Mirrors against the FED, the real low down on Trump's
magic wand. Donald has been a money man from his youth.

Bringing you up to speed. Chop chop.

[VIDEO]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFBtrn-rw-Q[/VIDEO]