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  • Bureaucrats, Keynes, credit... Taxes&fines... fire or ice

    Socialism is the firewall between non-producers and Darwinian pressures. The average bureaucrat who is employed by the State knows very well that he is of no particular use to the productive sector. An economy that is focused on profit-making has little use for State bureaucrats. When John Keynes came along with an operating system that was hugely benevolent to the bureaucrats, they all jumped on-board.
    "2. The dominant economic theory for the past 80 years is Keynesianism, i.e. the notion that the state and central bank must aggressively manage private-sector consumption (demand) and lending via centrally planned and funded fiscal and monetary stimulus during downturns (recessions/depressions). "

    "The greatest single invention of all time in the Keynesian universe is credit, because credit enables people to borrow from their future earnings to consume more in the present. Credit thus expands aggregate demand for more goods and services, which is the whole purpose of existence in this world-view: buy more stuff."
    "In the Keynesian universe, this self-reinforcing contraction of imprudent credit and widespread losses of speculative wealth are Bad Things. Very Bad Things. Important, Powerful People tend to own issuers of credit (banks), and losses are not something they signed up for.

    If all the Little People stop borrowing more money, the Powerful Owners of the credit-issuing machines (banks) can no longer reap enormous profits from issuing more credit, and that is a Very Bad Thing."
    "The Keynesian answer is simple: the government should borrow and spend lots of money to replace all the money that the private sector is no longer borrowing and spending"
    Of Two Minds - The Keynesian Cult Has Failed: "Emergency" Stimulus Is Now Permanent

    Millions of bureaucrats worldwide lament the advent of the computer that promises to erase what little justification previously existed for their jobs. They implement V.A.T. taxes and carbon taxes and every other tax they can dream up. They pass a million new laws so that they can impose a million new fines. They salivate like a dog at the prospect of the new taxes generated by the legalization of marijuana. They use asset seizure to steal more than all the burglars.
    Like the highwayman of old, they pull you over and demand to see your cash. If you have any, it MUST be the proceeds of criminal activity. No matter that most of the people they shake down like this have less than $200. There is no tax or fine that embarrass them.
    Democrats Have Found A Way To Directly Tax "White Privilege" And They Are About To Implement It In Seattle

    The socialists and communists have had plenty of economic crashes to their credit. It looks like the technocrats and bureaucrats must be given credit for the next crash.
    What form will it take? The reserve-currency status allowed us to inflate like crazy over the years.
    " The Federal Reserve was designed to create an endless spiral of government debt, and since the day it was created the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger and the value of the U.S. dollar has declined by about 98 percent."
    Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The Same Rate As It Did During The 1930s

    There are endless claims of coming hyperinflation. Keep in mind that we have had long-running inflation. GOV can print but, can it actually inject more fresh money into the economy? It easily injected lots of liquidity into the upper loop. if it did the same to the lower loop, we would all stop working.
    The Automatic Earth and many other writers are celling for enormous deflation. Smith writes about the 2 possibilities.
    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate
    Armstrong said that hyperinflation is for peripheral economies, not central economies. Everything runs on credit. Paper money is only 4/10s of a percent the entire money supply. What happens to credit when confidence disappears? If nobody advances credit, what happens to spending?
    I believe that TAE is correct in calling for a total deflationary collapse. Armstrong said that we would have both inflation and deflation.
    It will most likely appear as a rise in prices of necessities and a drop in prices of non-necessities.
    They key is China and our trade deficit.


    The Chinese are long-term planners,,, as opposed to the West. They let their shadow-banking system run wild knowing that it would blow up. They will fine-tune the meltdown depending on what the West does. They have avoided ALL mention of gold because they don't want the price to rise until they have all of it.
    While the West is totally absorbed with protecting it's pedophiles, rackets, and criminals, China is busy building the new Silk Road.

    Yep, 20 years of laundering mob money for dirty banks.

    It took a long time but, once wind and solar got a foothold, carbon energy is fast declining.

    Comment


    • “The reluctance of retail investors to buy stocks as the Dow hits new highs suggests that the rally has further to run”. Is investor pessimism this bull market’s biggest ally? Brian Maher has more...


      So, the FED and treasury are pumping up the bubble. Are they doing it specificallyLegendary Investor Asher Edelman Says "I Have No Doubt" PPT Behind Market Rally | Zero Hedge

      So, don't mention that the PPT is holding up everything waiting for the small fry to jump into the frying pan. How soon is the heat going to start under the frying pan?
      The private banks have cut WAY back on lending. The FED is getting ready for a rate hike. Both of these are deflationary. Just how much deflation can the stock market ignore?
      It appears that the finance industry plans to crash the system with deflation to fight Trump.

      Since the FED is always incorrect in their projections, we can assume that they won't survive the default cascade.

      Europe is even worse than America when it comes to GOV stealing money.
      "tickets for everything in Europe where speeding tickets are fined a proportion of your net worth. "
      When I was a kid, most police were kind, respectful, and actually there to protect society. Sure, there was some towns that were just greedy. My father took a

      Trump's budget cuts will be deflationary. A hike by the FED will be deflationary.

      Comment


      • Notice that no new wealth has been created by all this shuffling. They might raise interest rates to stop Trump.
        "The other leading cause of bursting credit bubbles is rising credit losses. Higher credit losses can emerge in junk bonds (1989), emerging markets (1998), or commercial real estate (2008)."
        The current default rate is rising fast.
        Jim Rickards shows you why stocks are in a bubble. But there are two kinds of bubble, as Jim explains. What kind of bubble are we in now? And how big is it? Read on.
        Free money seems like a good idea BUT, it makes the "credit cycle" far more volatile and always blows up.Fed Will Blink | Casey Research

        Here is a very interesting article from Economica. His contention is that; our money supply has far outgrown our population. It has even far outgrown the world population. What he doesn't see or mention is that; the reserve-currency status has caused enormous amounts of liquidity to flow to America.
        By the Bretton Woods agreement, a State can NOT print unlimited amounts of national currency. They have to save U.S. dollars and THEN , they can print more national currency. They effectively have to sell us stuff on credit to get enough dollars to print more national currency.

        Debt collection to Western Banks is normally enforced by the U.S. military. With the one-belt, one-road program, Asia and the East are turning away from the West. The R.O.W. has seen the enormous flows of capital into America far beyond our productivity. Bretton Woods and the petro-dollar brought enormous riches to America.

        It is highly doubtful that the U.S. military can enforce debt collection in Asia. We can rattle sabers but, neither Russia, nor China are going to back down. Russia has their new jamming system that (currently) can stop all Western systems. Russia has their long-range cruise missiles that can bypass any ABM system.

        America is currently linked up with Saudi Arabia. Saudi is on fire with hatred of Iran. This matched nicely with Tel Aviv's new-found fear of Iran. Tel Aviv has a long-standing hatred of Russia because of their competition in the pipeline wars to send gas to Europe.

        Comment


        • More confiscation,,, more rate hikes

          Markets are quiet waiting for the muppets to be drawn in. The fact that the "CAPE ratio is 182% of the median ratio of the past 137-years" has kept quite a few investors from moving in. The PPT just keeps pumping it up. Who knows how far they can pump it before it just implodes on it's own?
          The various funds desperately need interest-income to survive.
          Armstrong almost died in prison,,, was in a coma after a severe beating in his cell. A guard showed up with some big guy and let him in the cell to do the dirty work. He somehow survived. Armstrong was the center character in the movie, The forecaster. He recounts that every other principle character pictured in the movie is dead. You can imagine that he is somewhat circumspect in what he writes. Keep that in mind.

          "The Pension Crisis is serious and is the catalyst that will bring everything down. Nearly 600 State & Local governments are now in the hole and has reached nearly $1.2 trillion of unfunded pension liabilities in FY 2014. This reflects total pension liabilities of $4.798 trillion"
          "Government pensions are what destroyed the Roman Empire and history is going to repeat.

          I have stated before that there are people on Capitol Hill who support confiscating all private 401K plans in the country and replacing them with an allotment monthly. We know what will happen to that one, so you better have something else besides cash. "
          The Pension Crisis is serious and is the catalyst that will bring everything down. Nearly 600 State & Local governments are now in the hole and has
          Minutes from the Fed's May policy meeting showed board members thought that if jobs growth remains healthy with a rebound in investment and consumer spending

          The Onion weighs in on the situation, Financial Advisor Recommends Keeping One Bullet In Chamber Just In Case - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

          Comment


          • Blowing up China

            As I've previously written, I believe that Armstrong advised the Chinese in 2007, that they should crash their own economy to defuse the upturn in the war cycle.China?s Lehman Moment Is Coming! | Andrew Zatlin | FINANCIAL SENSE

            The Chinese money multiplier has hit an all time high, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...v2/1000x-1.png


            China has created/allowed "annual growth rate to 25% year-over-year." of the money supply. I believe that this is intentional. The Chinese are long-term planners. They would never allow credit creation to hit 25% a year believing that it was healthy or sustainable. They allowed this for another reason.


            The capital markets are global. Much of the West depends on liquidity from China flowing into markets. China can cut off internal liquidity and create fallout in global markets. The West is sleepwalking into all of this.
            Ore prices have collapsed and other commodities will follow.


            The Chinese can easily take out the gold market and the FOREX. There is about 4,500--5,000 tons of gold traded daily. There is a daily turnover in the FOREX of $5.1 trillion a day. If China suddenly offered to buy any and all gold for 20% over yesterday's Yuan price, they would crash both markets.
            Meanwhile, Tel Aviv on the Potomac continues to shoot America in the foot.
            US To Review Boeing, Airbus Sales To Iran And Will Impose Addition Sanctions
            Iran is undercutting Saudi oil so, we attack Iran. They will buy their airplanes from somebody else. This will make our trade deficit that much worse. Oil is down under $50 and is killing the oil majors, bankers and saudis.
            But, there is a difference between poking a stick in a rattlesnake's nest and poking your finger in a rattlesnake's nest. No anti-ballistic missile system can intercept 300,000 missiles from Iran. Iran will continue to trade East rather than West.
            We continue to HELP the East build their new Silk Road system that will displace the corrupt West. Western leaders continue to protect their rackets no matter how bad the consequences.

            Comment


            • Crypto currencies will completely change the financial system,,,,

              Until they get a bullet in the brain
              Well Eurasia had their big economic pow wow and America was a no-show. When the G7 have a big pow wow, they exclude China and Russia. Even the EU is barely represented.
              G7 Summit Excludes Russia and ChinaA New Financial System Is Being Born | Zero Hedge

              So, all these "crypto" savers are depending on one Supreme Court decision. The article talks about completely doing away with the current financial system. If there are backdoors into every system,,,, and even the NSA got hacked, what makes these people think TOR and the blockchain are safe? GOV is expected to eventually grab all the private retirement funds. They certainly aren't going to leave crypto currenices alone.


              The welfare society is getting more and more expensive, Handout Nation: Combined Enrollment In America?s 4 Largest Safety Net Programs Hits A Record High Of 236 Million
              The news is going to full of 2 things; the budget & debt-ceiling battle AND the implosion of China.

              Comment


              • The slow death of the oil industry

                There is SO MUCH information readily available that there is NO excuse for being ignorant. Apparently, the Sauds don't read. They have a "30-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second in line to the King, who has emerged as one of the most powerful figures in the Saudi government." He says that they are going to completely change the Saudi economy away from it's dependence on oil. The Sauds just can't understand why the price of oil won't rise. OPEC is going to have a 9 month extension on the production cutbacks.

                There is an economic pecking order in the world that is governed by; when did your country enter and embrace the industrial revolution? The Saudis don't have a prayer of diversifying. This new royal technocrat hasn't got a clue.
                Saudi Arabia Releases Ambitious Plan To Diversify Economy | OilPrice.com

                Apparently, the OPECers can't read the writing on the wall. Carbon is a fuel,,, solar & wind are a technology. The banking industry has come to the conclusion that the oil business is a dead end.
                Wall Street Throws Up On OPEC: Barclays Sees "No Light At The End Of The Tunnel"; MS Cuts WTI Price Target | Zero Hedge
                Here is the graph that shows that OPEC is dead-in-the-water, Soaring growth of solar power demonstrated in one chart


                Carbon energy did everything it could to avoid being undercut by ZPE. It ignored wind & solar because it was SO expensive. The U.S. oil majors are spending 86% of profits on debt service. They believed in Hubbert's Peak. They have enormous sunk costs that are probably losses.

                The Saudis will go down in flames because they are stupid. They let their blind hatred of Iran guide them into siding with israel and AGAINST Russia. They fired their most experienced ministers and put in dreamers.
                Abu Dhabi can see the writing on the wall but, not the stupid Wahabbis.
                Every solar panel and wind generator is another cut. They will perish from 1,000 cuts.
                "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum

                Comment


                • The stagflation of the 70s was caused by the oil shock BUT, blamed on the lack of a Central bank.

                  "the government borrowed from private banks based on the recommendations of the Basel Committee."
                  Here is a graph of before & after Canada was bestowed with a Central bank.
                  Yikes!, the url seems to be hundreds of lines long. Here is a link to the page, Prudent Press | The History of the Bank of Canada

                  The private banks couldn't possibly compete with a CB that passed out near interest-free loans to GOV. After GOV started borrowing from the private banks at compound interest, Canadian debt rose at 20%. Not only that, GOV bailed out the banks after they went too wild with bad loans. The private banks turned around and loaned the SAME money back to the GOV at interest.
                  Canada's Central Bank Scam

                  Comment


                  • Trum torpedos carbon credits

                    A very large part of the State is an enormous horde of bureaucrats that reach ever-deeper into private wealth to pay their salaries. Their latest cause celebre seems to be global warming and carbon taxes. Dilbert weighs in on global warming,
                    DILBERT: SCOTT ADAMS NAILS GLOBAL WARMING SCIENCE AND ANNOYS THE LIBERALS ... - One Citizen Speaking
                    So, we blithely sail on in our Keynesian flagship using charts (economic models) that are faux science and have never worked.

                    The Trump submarine just fired a torpedo into the Keynesian Navy, Merkel Furious With Trump After "Unprecedented" G-7 Failure To Reach Consensus On Climate Change | Zero Hedge

                    Comment


                    • The future of Germany??

                      The Canadians got thoroughly screwed when their system was changed to rely on credit-money. Adolph Hitler instituted an economic system in Germany that was focused on labor and property as the backbone of the economic system. Germany became the most prosperous State in Europe in a very short time. This was such a glaring bad example that he was promptly handed a war.


                      "Germany is too strong. We must destroy her."- Winston Churchill, Nov. 1936.
                      ""The war was not just a matter of the elimination of Fascism in Germany, but rather of obtaining German sales markets." - Winston Churchill. March, 1946."
                      "I felt sorry for the German people. We were planning - and we had the force to carry out our plans - to obliterate a once mighty nation." - Admiral Daniel Leahy; U.S Ambassador
                      The Myth Of German Culpability

                      Germany now has about a 1 trillion dollar trade surplus.
                      A right-wing National Front (FN) party memeber said in an interview with Sputnik on Friday that Germany is developing its economy at the expense of the other sates in the European Union, hindering the recovery of the bloc from the crisis.

                      There is much talk of Germany joining the Eurasian trade group. Germany is a $ trillion ahead of the game and the rest of Europe is about a $trillion in debt. Will Germany be forced to pay for the deficits in Europe? Merkel comes up for election in September. Will Germany hold on to it's trillion?

                      Comment


                      • Shortage of dollars,,, avoiding the reset

                        There has been talk for years about a new worldwide economic system. Pox Americana likes the old system very much,,, thank you any way.
                        Part of the reason for Germany's huge economic success before the war was; it could undercut the prices of States that had a central bank. Churchill made it clear that the war was just for the bankers.
                        The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to forestall currency wars and the often-resulting, kinetic wars. Bretton Woods made the U.S. dollar the reserve currency. This might have seemed like a good idea at the time but, it wasn't thought through thoroughly. The entire Western world was going to use the dollar as a reserve currency but, the dollar supply could only grow at the rate that America grew.
                        Europe, America, and the rest of the States that used the dollar for a reserve had FAR too much economic growth for all of it to be denominated in just dollars. If the dollar supply could only grow at the rate that the U.S. supply of gold grew, the R.O.W. would be starved for dollars.

                        As nations re-industrialized after the war, they had no medium to use to store surplus wealth. This was slightly alleviated by the over-printing for the welfare-warfare State. This came to an end a few years later, when the dollar lost value and various States demanded gold. It was leaving the treasury at the rate of 100 tons a week in the summer of '71.

                        Continued

                        Comment


                        • Paer 2

                          The closing of the gold window was very fortuitous for America. The worldwide clamoring for dollars did not come to an end just because of the closing of gold-convertibility. We offered the Saudis a deal that they couldn't (safely) refuse. The petro-dollar was born and dollar demand took flight.

                          The high demand for dollars continued and everybody wanted to sell us stuff to bring back dollars. We ran/run a huge trade deficit so that they can slurp up all our dollars.
                          Last edited by Danny B; 05-28-2017, 06:45 PM. Reason: broken url

                          Comment


                          • three

                            Had to break it up more.
                            All this inflow of capital has made America a high-cost and high-wage economy. But, globalism has destroyed the wage base.

                            The huge trade imbalances with America, Germany, Japan and China must be carried forever OR, the debt much be liquidated or defaulted.
                            Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets gets to the heart of the trade imbalance issue in his email update today: “The Trade Imbalance Dilemma and Soaring Chinese Debt”.Over the past …


                            Pox Americana has been actively avoiding the great reset. As the dollar goes up, it becomes more and more wobbly.
                            The whole trade imbalance in Europe is causing problems that the eurocrate NEVER envisioned, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...te-from-spain/

                            Comment


                            • In the late 1760s and early 1770s, the government of France was in a deep panic. They had recently suffered a disastrous and costly defeat in the Seven Years War, and the national budget was a…


                              "According to the data by Bloomberg, the amount of bonds below investment grade the U.S. energy companies need to pay back each year will surge to approximately $70 billion in 2017, up from $30 billion in 2016."
                              "As we can see, the outstanding debt (in bonds) will jump to $110 billion in 2018, $155 billion in 2019, and then skyrocket to $230 billion in 2020."
                              "However, according to the Bloomberg data, these companies would need to pay back $110 billion in debt (bonds) in 2018. If they would use all their free cash flow profits to pay back this debt, they would still owe $92 billion."

                              Comment


                              • The economy can grow but, the bankers can't.

                                "A more precise statement of the underlying relationship is that inflation occurs when central banks accommodate inflationary forces that usually arise from non-monetary economic and social factors."
                                Yeah, the demands of welfare and warfare.All societies that undergo a moral collapse eventually collapse financially.

                                "At the same time, in the advanced economies, there has been a growing sense among the many that a few are making off with the fruits of economic progress."
                                "The positive function of the nation-state is to maintain equity between the social classes. The nation-state is the largest unit that can feasibly fulfill this function."
                                What does that imply for One-World GOV?
                                " But Mrs May and her advisers seem to understand the crucial importance of the nation-state in preserving social justice. "
                                After 47 Years, Stephen Lewis Calls It Quits In A Scathing Critique Of Modern Markets | Zero Hedge

                                The main problem with academia is that it soon becomes and "echo chamber". Everybody in academia is in agreement on the facts & figures. It is too much trouble to go out and actually collect information. After all, they have BRILLIANT models.

                                Here is an article by and about a brilliant investor who spent too much time with models.
                                "When Albert Edwards predicted in late 2016 that a surge in wage inflation was imminent, we were confused by this prediction from the world's pre-eminent deflationist"
                                "Which is why we have to give Edwards credit: some 6 months after his initial call, he had the courage to do what is never easy and admit he was wrong, and that contrary to his expectations wages are not going up after all.

                                Talking about wrong, I have to put my hands up. I have been expecting US wage inflation to roar ahead over the past three months to well above 3%, yet every data release has surprised on the downside"
                                Albert Edwards: "What On Earth Is Going On With US Wages" | Zero Hedge
                                This is what happens when you do not have a global view. Cheap, containerized shipping allowed our wage competitors to undercut our jobs. Edwards just didn't take into account something that was glaringly obvious.
                                There is a CONTINUAL vomit of information telling us that unemployment is only 4%. This will contribute to the speed of the final unwinding. All the bad news has been swept under the rug,,, until it blows up.


                                Just wait a bit longer and you won't be "grappling" any more.
                                They increased their money supply by 25% last year. How do you fix that?
                                The ECB is soon to run out of eligible bonds to buy. They are buying up assets like crazy BUT, they have no bubbles.


                                It's not a currency. It's a speculative instrument.
                                Just give it time.
                                Tar sand is crashing but, hot Chinese money comes to the rescue.

                                So, what does that mean for it's competitors?

                                Wait! What about all those sunk-costs that the utilities have in nuke and carbon?

                                Comment

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