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Economic pressures

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    1/31 Pimco: it’s time to start betting the other way – Finanz Und Wirtschaft
    1/31 China’s largest conglomerate is on the verge of bankruptcy – Zero Hedge
    1/31 Saving rate at 12-year low when 50% of Americans don’t have savings – Wolf Street
    1/31 China faces worse financial risk than US before global crisis – Economic Times
    1/30 Dow drops 300 points as stocks sell-off intensifies – CNBC
    1/30 World stocks sucked under by bond market breakout – Reuters
    1/30 Stock ownership rate plunges as credit card debt soars – Mish
    1/30 Trader warns: beware the “freaking people out effect” – Zero Hedge

    1/31 Crypto bloodbath amid widespread equity and bond carnage – Mish
    Armstrong gives a short account of his incarceration and torture,,, thanks to the bankers and the State.
    News on quantum encryption,.
    The future of crypto,


    • Moving from dangerous bonds into less dangerous stocks

      "Jeff Gundlach - who in early January joined the bearish bond chorus, announcing that a bear market would commence once the long-term trendline be broken should the 30Y rise above 2.99%..."
      Some claim that 3.5% is the start of a crash. Others claim 3%.
      He has some good graphs,

      "The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.

      According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.

      Corporate debt, mortgage rates, auto loans, even stock dividends are all perceived in terms of their value/risk relative to the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury bond.

      With that in mind, the yield on this bond has just broken above the trendline that has guided it lower for the last 25 years."
      When bond yields RISE as they are right now, bond prices FALL.

      And when bond prices FALL, the massive debt bubble begins to burst.

      Globally the world has added over $60 trillion in debt since 2009… and all of this was based on the assumption that bond yields were going LOWER not HIGHER
      Here is the little squiggle that indicates to some that the 10 year bond has reversed it's decline,
      John Hussman is extremely methodical. He has lots of facts and figures here to show that stocks will NOT have any earnings in the next several years.
      Armstrong, "So far, we have elected the first Daily Bearish Reversal. There are three more to go before we can say we are headed into a March low. "
      Armstrong recounts some of his earlier predictions that proved to be perfectly accurate.
      Armstrong plays his cards VERY close to his vest because his big paying subscribers don't want him giving out a bunch of info. The big funds want to be the first to the exit.
      None of the indicators point to a waterfall event in the immediate future.

      Alaska and food stamps, "In total, the program covers nearly one-third of the state's population."
      The "precariat",
      The Europeans have come out and told Uncle Sam to shove it! NO more sanctions. No sanctions on Iran and, in a big F.U to pox americana,,,,

      1/31 Market euphoria may turn to despair if 10-year yield jumps to 3% – Bloomberg Wait and see.
      1/31 Forget stocks, look at euro-bonds; they are the real problem – Tom Luongo NO ! NO!, don't look over there.
      1/31 US national debt will jump by $617 billion in 5 months – Wolf Street Buy more popcorn.
      Walmart to lay off thousands of employees | TheHill
      1/31 Private payrolls jump by 234,000, blowing past expectations: ADP – CNBC

      Armstrong wrote about the huge rotation OUT of bonds and into stocks. The State has an unquenchable appetite for MONEY. NOBODY wants to buy $617 billion in bonds from a country that is trying to cheapen it's currency. If the State does indeed default, the bloated stock market is a better bet,
      The lesser of 2 weevils.
      The Treasury will have to bump it's interest rate way up to attract legitimate buyers. That "bump" will be the death knell.


      • Originally posted by Danny B View Post
        Inflation is accurately described as; an increase in the money supply.


        We have 2 distinct loops of the economy. We have completely different levels of confidence between the two loops. The economy is far more susceptible to confidence than it is to the money supply.
        I can agree with you, but since I "hacked" your response you may want to add to or subtract from my understanding.

        There has been an enormous amount of inflation over the last many years and the rate of this has been accelerating. (also the rate of the rate, but I digress)

        In the general scheme of things, I am a "lower loop" sort of person, but I keep a few "hard assets" around, being that is my choice.

        Now, I like to read your posts, which I do at least once a week. The big reason is that what the upper loop tranche does certainly impacts my life and future. Eventually they will undoubtedly screw up and throw the lower loop into a major depression. This will cause hardship but also result in riots, rebellions, etc. which will impact the upper loop. This is their greatest fear. And this fear keeps them in check, for now. When Portugal sells huge low interest bonds to gullible bankers, I want to know. So, Thank-you. I am better informed.

        The UL people are all jockeying for advantage and that is the soap opera that is played on the world stage for everyone to see. Unfortunately, everyone is an actor and the truth in concealed.

        One reality that I cannot escape is this: A dollar in the UL is the same dollar in the LL. More realities? An oz of metal in the UL is the same in the LL. Same for land, skills, etc. A mountain of bonds and other paper is at the beck and call of groups and individuals and they are seeking advantages over one or the other. Even little NK is in the game. Be careful out there!

        Oh! One more comment. The currencies of the various countries can be issued at various rates and manipulated by the various actors. But, something new has arrived on the stage over the last few years to rock the boat. Namely, Crypto-currencies in all its permutations. I wish I knew the relative size of CC vs. sovereign transaction volume. As I understand it, the ratio is far less than 1:100. Is this correct? If so, it is really nothing to think about at this time.
        There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.


        • The curious natures of inflation

          Wayne, you can forget about CC for now. 10% of all CC exchanges take place in India. CC has been pretty much banned in India. It's not very welcome in China either. The Indian public holds about 20,000 tons of gold. The Chinese hold a lot too. Gold will be repriced before long. Over 10% of cryptos have been stolen. Crypto just won't work. I'll try to explain.

          Everyone has heard the story about the goldsmith who had the best vault in town. He rented space in his vault and gave receipts for other people's gold.
          Being human, he eventually circulated more receipts than the amount of gold he held. When he circulated receipts for gold that he didn't own, he went from being an artisan to being a banker. Banking was born out of fraud. Centuries ago, banks held savings. Bankers passed a moral judgement on prospective borrowers. Bankers brokered loans of the PMs that they held in their vaults. The gold supply grew by about 2% a year. The economy grew by about 2% a year.
          This just wasn't enough for many Prime ministers, Presidents, Kings and Popes. Rulers routinely went off the gold standard as they were ramping up for war. This made great fortunes for bankers. Since a king never had to run for election,,,, and buy votes, the bankers got rid of as many kings as they could. The bankers loaned to elected officials knowing that they would collect GREAT returns by backing corrupt leaders.

          Tsar Nicholas II wasn't corruptible so, the bankers whipped up a revolution and ended the House of Romanov. His reign saw the fall of the Russian Empire from being one of the foremost great powers of the world to economic and military collapse.
          Jews May Have Killed Russia's Last Czar Nicholas II In Ritual Murder, Investigators Claim
          Nov 29, 2017 - The head of Russia's Orthodox Church is launching an investigation into whether the last Czar of Russia, Nicholas II, and his family were victims of a ritual murder carried out by angry Jews in 1918,

          Kings had to go. They were a lot more likely to care about their country than elected leaders.
          Since the bankers never actually produced anything, they were the eternal parasite. Parasites LOVE socialism. The bankers have long lauded people like Marx. Obummer was elected by $1 billion from the bankers. The MSM praised him without limit. The bought-and-paid-for-congress gave him as much power as they could. The bankers installed Marxism in Eastern Europe until the U.S.S.R. collapse. They had a lot of influence in Chinese communism. Martin Armstrong says that; it's just our turn to get shafted by socialism. Whatever else you may think about Trump, it appears that he will go head-to-head with the communists.

          The present war has the CIA, FBI and MSM,,, all controlled by bankers, along with a congress mostly controlled by bankers , up against Trump. He is fighting a war against the forces that destroyed that destroyed the U.S.S.R.
          In his post-Versailles treatise, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes famously quoted the Bolshevik (Lenin)leader saying, perhaps apocryphally, that "the best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency." In other words, incompetent central bankers are a communist's best friend.

          This brings us to inflation. When currency was linked by / backed by something that was tangible, it was very difficult to get much monetary inflation. When currency was backed by nothing, monetary inflation was easy to accomplish. The bankers are / were the most astute parasites. The State was equally a parasite but, not near so astute. The 2 mega-parasites ran the presses as fast as they could now that the golden chain had been removed. The number of money renters grew enormously. The money supply grew enormously. The end result was that, interest income is hard to come by.

          In the early '80s, the gold industry invented gold futures. This allowed them to sell paper gold. They inflated the gold supply 100 times over.
          Stop and think. The have inflated the snot out of everything that can be sent over a wire.
          Tangible gold, stock certificates, paper bonds, futures & options, etc haven't been inflated anything like items that are traded electronicly.
          The banker must convert his thin-air money into tangibles if he hopes to eat. The bankers were given a few $trillion as excess reserves to keep them alive. They were suppose to keep this on deposit at the FED to keep it from blowing up prices in the lower loop.
          This chart shows how monetization has crossed over into the real economy. Forget the chart. It was 200 lines of code.

          This site shows how the money has bled over into the economy.
          Armstrong, "This is warning that an uptick in rates will lead to an explosive rally in overall rates and then we will see the costs of funding explode. So buckle up – we are headed to the other side of the storm. We have been in the eye where it is calm but now we are preparing to come out and rates will move upward faster than before."

          So, the State was instrumental in driving down interest rates. This was done to keep interest expense on sovereign debt down to a minimum. But now, the money renters are losing their shirts. FED GOV plans to borrow a couple of $ trillion. The bankers are socialist and the FED is owned by bankers. Since they hate Trump with a passion, they will probably cause the interest rates to go way up.
          The bankers use their thin-air money to buy tangibles. They can inflate the snot out of everything that moves by wire. The actual supply of tangibles is shrinking. The supply of consumers is shrinking. Wages are shrinking. The credit edifice is trying to grow big enough and fast enough to make up the difference.
          Confidence shrinks with them. Confidence drives interest rates. The mega-parasites have "poisoned the well" by taking too much.

          Lenin, "By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth."

          Currency inflation is going up at the same time that wages and population are going down. Armstrong said that the currency collapse would commence in 2021.


          • The nominal sticker price of tangible assets

            Originally posted by Danny B View Post
            Wayne, you can forget about CC for now.


            (2) The present war has the CIA, FBI and MSM,,, all controlled by bankers, along with a congress mostly controlled by bankers ... up against Trump.


            (3) The bankers are / were the most astute parasites. The State was equally a parasite but, not near so astute.


            (4) In the early '80s, the gold industry invented gold futures. This allowed them to sell paper gold. They inflated the gold supply 100 times over.


            (5) The banker must convert his thin-air money into tangibles if he hopes to eat.

            (6) The bankers were ... suppose to keep this on deposit at the FED to keep it from blowing up prices in the lower loop ... monetization has crossed over into the real economy.


            (7) The bankers use their thin-air money to buy tangibles. They can inflate ... The mega-parasites have "poisoned the well" by taking too much.

            Thanks for allowing me to pick your brain. I am in general agreement with you. I'm glad you agree with me on crypto. It won't go away but it won't be the cure when things collapse. And things will collapse eventually.

            (2) (3) (4) It seems to me the bankers, the State and the futures market makers are all in a similar situation, really the same situation. All these groups are, in general, trapped in a box with no way out. They are powerless to really solve the dilemma they have created and if they step out of formation they fear they will end up a pariah like Armstrong.

            (5) At the level of an individual they may decide to put 10 percent of their assets in gold, let's say. That might be permitted but this is the problem with that. They don't fear going hungry, but if the price of gold, let's say, moves up too quickly, it will crash the FRN. Then the "unwashed" masses with come at them with pitchforks. Oops, sorry, they don't own any pitchforks because they all live in cities... There is not enough tangible assets for 10 percent to move 10 percent into tangibles without upsetting the market. (They are trapped.)

            (6) So, according to your chart, the PTB are no longer marching in step and they are buying tangible assets. This will, of course, bring in uncontrollable street level inflation. People will say, "I can't pay my rent and still eat, I'll go live with Joe." That was a good graph. I hope it was a good representation of reality.

            (7) You seem to be of the opinion the game is over, the process of paying the piper is under way.

            Forewarned is forearmed!
            There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.


            • Brian Josephson won a Nobel prize many years ago for his work on Quantum tunnelling.
              Essentially, all members of a species are in communication / contact.
              The Princeton Egg tracks our global consciousness. The Global Consciousness Project
              So, what does that imply? "Humanity Is Descending Into Clinical Insanity"

              "social pathologies of collapse" The article goes into the many ways that we are going collectively CRAZY.
              The "Most Gruesome Symptoms" Of The Breakdown Of Society Now Manifesting
              Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Math Historian | HuffPost
              Here's How NASA Thinks Society Will Collapse - The Atlantic
              BBC - Future - How Western civilisation could collapse
              Noam Chomsky on the Breakdown of American Society and a World in ...

              We're slowing down. How important is that?

              Tainter wrote an excellent book on the fall of complex societies,
              Roberto Vaca wrote about this many years ago,
              Armstrong, "We are approaching the grave danger of a Dark Age beginning from the aftermath of 2032. Hopefully, I will be gone by then and will not have to face this horrible event"

              I keep writing about the fact that we have no cure for efficiency. Adding to the collective insanity is the knowledge that many of us may become permanently jobless.
              We're fracturing as a society where MGTOW is just one facet.
              The future is coming TOO fast for us to comprehend or adjust.
              It's going to get even faster when AI can create an AI offspring that is even faster.

              If you want to prepare, you must create an agrarian group that has nothing worth stealing. That means a long growing season with a minimum of stored food. Keep in mind that energy flows from the sun affect our health, both mental and physical. The upcoming pole flip may have us all barking at the moon.

              Armstrong, "In Britain, two out of three pension funds are in the deficit. In total, some 3,710 pension schemes are in deficit according to the Pension Protection Fund watchdog. The entire Ponzi Scheme of pension is falling apart. We need crisis management right NOW and there isn’t a hope in hell of moving to such a position of a Crisis Manager. Millions of workers around the world who believed in government are going to see their futures wiped out."
              "There is going to have to be a NEW Cabinet position with dictatorial powers as a crisis manager. If we continue to ignore this issue, we are headed into a very serious Monetary Crisis and there is NOBODY in office that even understands the threat. So individually, we must ride this wave and to survive, we simply have to comprehend the nature of the crisis. The idiots who are in power will try to raise taxes to fill a deficit for one month. They are not addressing the crisis. This cannot be fixed by raising taxes. We need real CRISIS MANAGEMENT skills and soon."
              So, idiotic lawmakers have to find somebody competent SOON, to run the whole show,,,,, Plant a garden.

              "Keep in mind that Goldman Sachs has three strategic people now in place controlling the agenda."
              GS has screwed it up EVERY time. Trump is going to get steamrollered by all of this.

              The FED dumped $18 billion in one month. How is that going to work out when the Treasury needs about a $trillion?
              "With a rag-tag Trumpian crew of ex-bankers and Goldman Sachs alumni as the only watchdogs in town, it’s time to focus, because one thing is clear: Donald Trump’s economic team is in the process of making the financial system combustible again. "
              "Despite the fact that the Republican platform in election 2016 endorsed reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act, Mnuchin made it clear that he has no intention of letting that happen."
              We're marching off the cliff,,,, arm-in-arm.

              2/02 Dow drops 666 points as interest rates shoot higher – CNBC 666?
              2/02 30-year Treasury yield tops 3% as investors see accelerating economy – CNBC
              2/02 GDPNow forecast an unbelievable 5.4%: I’ll take the under (way under) – Talk Markets I believe it. GDP is just a measure of how much money there is in the economy.
              2/02 US govt unable to service debt as interest rates surge – SRSrocco Report
              2/02 Janet Yellen hands stick of dynamite off to Jerome Powell – Seeking Alpha


              • Interesting source material

                Thanks, you have done a great job of backing up your viewpoint.
                There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.


                • Bad ideas,, bad plans,,, bad outcomes

                  Thanks, Wayne. Talk is cheap and history is only a guide. Human nature doesn't change much but, new inputs from our surroundings eliminate old models. Ned Ludd was the "first" to decry automation. The birth of the AI offspring chip will bring an AI chip for EVERY application. Unfolding neural networks will bring big changes and maybe, danger.
                  War will completely change,

                  Hackers will flood everything. AI will tell us when we are going to die,
                  Man advanced from an agrarian society to a mechanized society. If he gets displaced from participating in the industrial society, he has to revert to an agrarian society. That can't work.
                  Depopulation in all it's guises is on the rise, “Funding levels are at their lowest for many years, with the Congo seeming to have ‘fallen off the map’ for many donors, at a time when we are facing vastly increased humanitarian need,”

                  Krap with a capital K
                  "Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: “If We Wait to See Actual Inflation, We’ll Be Too Late; We’ll Likely Overshoot Full Employment This Year; We Central Bankers Must Be Very Vigilant; Base Case Is For 3 Rate Hikes in 2018, Could Be More.”
                  The rate hikes are simply daggers in the heart of sovereign debt. Will Trump get rid of the FED and let the Treasury do it's job?

                  "When this current bubble pops, the one that I've repeatedly described as The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles, the ensuing damage will be many multiples of that caused by the bursting of the bubbles that preceded it. That’s the nature of these things: you either take your lumps when you should, or you pay a far steeper price later on."
                  "In Scenario A the banks make $10 from their 1% spread on $1,000. In Scenario B they make $355 in net interest profits on your same $1,000 deposit. That's a big difference.

                  But what if even that’s not enough to sate the banks' hunger for greater profit? What if the banks feel overly hamstrung by that pesky 10% reserve requirement? What if they only had to hold 5% in reserve?

                  Well, then $20,000 in loans can be made against your $1,000 deposit. If we call this Scenario C (again at a 4% loan rate,) then banks can make $755 in net interest profit on the back of your $1,000 deposit. Now that’s more exciting!"
                  "Each night, right before the bank's reserve snapshot is taken, all of the money in your checking account is briefly "swept" into a special sweep account which has no reserve requirements. So, when the reserve snapshot is taken for your bank, presto!, there's no money in your checking account -- so, as far the regulators are concerned, your bank need not hold any money in reserve for that account.

                  And right after the reserve snapshot is taken, presto again!, your money is swept right back into your checking account."
                  The FED tried raising rates in 2007. Things crashed. They are trying to raise rates now. The Site "Economica" shows good proof that the CB can't successfully raise rates when the consuming population is shrinking. We can expect another crash but, much worse, because there is so much more debt in the system.

                  2/04 All the Nunes memo proves is that it was massively overhyped – Vanity Fair
                  2/04 Republican memo interesting, but maybe not how GOP hoped – Buzzfeed

                  The Dems would like this to go away. Like Killary once said, "what difference does it make?"
                  Sorry, killing a group of U.S. military doesn't really kick of a big stink. In this case, there is far more at stake.
                  "The FISA court which approved the FBI surveillance was never told that the dossier had been funded by the Democrats. This is what is classified as FRAUD UPON THE COURT.

                  “Fraud upon the court” has been defined by the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals as any “attempts to, defile the court itself, or is a fraud perpetrated by officers of the court so that the judicial machinery can not perform in the usual manner its impartial task of adjudging cases.” Kenner v. C.I.R., 387 F.3d 689 (1968); 7 Moore’s Federal Practice, 2d ed., p. 512, ś 60.23. "
                  “Fraud on the court is one of the most serious violations that can occur in a court of law. If fraud on the court occurs, the effect is that the entire case is voided or cancelled. Any ruling or judgment that the court has issued will be void. "
                  "Therefore, anyone who tries to hide the memo is conspiring with the FBI and that is actually a crime. We are witnessing the complete meltdown of the rule of law. CNN and the New York Times, of course, spin it to claim there is nothing really here."

                  If you look at the planned borrowing numbers from FED GOV, you can see that nobody in D.C. plans to cut back. The "Crisis Manager" that Armstrong proposed is nowhere in sight.
                  So, is all of this just a coincidence? It really doesn't seem that way.


                  • Save the banks,,, light a fuse under the 10 year note

                    It's pretty quiet right now. The FED doesn't have to actively reduce it's balance sheet to set off deflation. The CBs have been buying every dip to keep investors in the market. If the FED truly wants to tamp down the fires, it only needs to ignore the dips. Historically a meltdown in the stock market took weeks or months to hit bottom. That was before algos were doing much of the trading. That was before so many trades were executed after hours.
                    The FED is trying to cool down the fires without blowing up the markets. They have screwed up EVERYTHING else so, what are their chances of success?
                    Crypto-coins are a creation of the NSA. Various States and many banks have banned them. They are in flame-out right now. BUT, there is a new twist. Gold backed crypto coins have appeared. EVERYBODY knows how safe gold is.
                    BTW, these gold-backed crypto-coins are supposedly gold backed. They are NOT gold convertible.

                    Kunstler, "The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds. Almost nothing in America’s financial life is on the level anymore"
                    "Erasing psychological boundaries is a dangerous thing. When the rackets finally come to grief—as they must because their operations don’t add up—and the reckoning with true price discovery commences at the macro scale, the American people will find themselves in even more distress than they’ve endured so far.
                    This will be the moment when either nobody has any money, or there is plenty of worthless money for everyone. Either way, the functional bankruptcy of the nation will be complete, and nothing will work anymore, including getting enough to eat. "
                    Beyond Cynicism: America Fumbles Towards Kafka’s Castle | The American Conservative
                    Keep in mind that almost all of the money supply is NOT paper. Paper money will be in BIG demand when credit locks up.

                    Jim Willie, "The USGovt and USFed colluded to prevent the entire set of Wall Street banks from failing like Lehman Brothers did. They all had the same ugly insolvent traits. Few tell the story correctly, but Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suffocated Lehman to death. Lehman did not fail without help. Like Chief Justice Scalia, Lehman was suffocated in a bed of unpaid bond sales. What comes next is a nasty corrosive dangerous sequence of financial market crises, where pumped paper assets suffer notable declines. It will include the stock, bond, and currency markets. "

                    "What comes next is what the Jackass has come to call the Global Systemic Lehman Event. For ten years, the Powers that Be, namely the banker cabal, have been supporting the entire global bond market in almost exactly the same manner as they supported the mortgage finance market in 2005 through 2007 before it erupted. The subprime bond market crisis of 2008 will be repeated, but on a global scale which includes major sovereign bonds. "
                    "Warning signs are numerous. Consider the Money Velocity index, the flattened Treasury Yield Curve, the junk bond index, the pension fund shortfalls, the business defaults, the high leverage in big bank bond portfolios, and the growing automobile bond market travesty that features a full repeat episode of the subprime mortgage market. The USFed is more guilty of heretical monetary policy with each passing year. "

                    "For the last two years, the central bank has been buying US stocks with both hands using their Wall Street partners in collusion. For the last four years, the central bank has been supporting (rigging) the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) bonds, in order to silence the price inflation warnings."
                    "The Jackass has been adamant, and mostly (not completely) alone in heralding that the QE might be financial stimulus but it causes capital destruction in an unavoidable deadly manner. QE is wrecking the USEconomy on Main Street while providing a party-like atmosphere on Wall Street."
                    "The fuse to light the financial market bonfire is the USTreasury Bond market, in particular the long-term maturity. "
                    "There are no free markets anymore, not since 9/11 and the installation of the fascist bankers at the helm. They committed the terrorist crime, sacked the World Trade Center giant bank, installed the Patriot Act, captured the $700 billion TARP Fund, and have controlled the USGovt ever since. It is all a crime scene, a coup d’etat, with cover provided by the lapdog corrupted press networks."
                    Technically, the coup commenced on November 22, 1963. JFK was going to end the FED and CIA. The takeover was jacked up a notch on 9/11 to further control and cement the control of the mother country.
                    "We were told QE would be temporary, like for six months. The Jackass instantly declared in 2011 that it would be permanent, just like the Zero Rate Interest Rate policy"

                    "The USTreasury 10-year yield is on the verge of a breakout. Interest rates are rising, and could cause tremendous damage, starting with the stock market. The USFed balance sheet is loaded for massive losses, from USTBonds bought at low rates. If and when TNX goes above 3.0% on the all-important bond yield, the S&P500 and Dow Jones Index will turn down hard and scream of a major stock market decline."
                    "The Global Financial RESET will be urgently put into motion, jumping up a gear in activity and intensity. Ironically, expect in several months that the East will be invited to help stabilize matters. They will comply, but on condition the Gold Standard is re-instated."

                    "The secondary pattern hit its 2.7% yield target. It is a highly reliable pattern in general. The recent move above the 2.60% key resistance level with gusto could continue to provide impetus in pushing the USTreasury 10-year yield (TNX) above the 3.0% level. That would cause severe problems"
                    "The Head & Shoulders reversal target calls for an upward move in the neighborhood of 3.4% to 4.0% incredibly, as the great unwind is near, for both stocks and bonds. The more conservative 3.4% target pertains to the basic H&S pattern without considering its upward bias tilt. The more aggressive 4.0% target pertains to the more liberal interpretation "
                    "Either way, the move toward the 3.5% area will cause tremendous grief and lead to significant publicity. Expect a major stock market decline, together with a major bond market decline, the worst of both worlds. Two declines simultaneously under the King Dollar banner will signal ignominious light."
                    "The last time the USTreasury Yield Spread went almost totally flat was immediately before the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It served as the key signal, and accurately so, for what was to come in the following several months. The same warning signal is now flashing red"
                    US Treasury Bonds: Fuse To Light The Bonfire | Gold Eagle

                    The average person does not care about bond spreads. They are all-important to the investing community. You now have something of a timeline if you watch the rise of the 10 year bond.


                    • The FED is trying to tamp down the "enthusiasm in the stock market. A stock bear market usually takes many months to bottom out. This time, all the gamblers are aware of the extreme over-valuations. Everyone knows that the algos can rush the exit far faster than they can. After hours trading is different. It matches up buy & sell orders to complete a transaction without going through the exchange. If a big group heads for the exits after-hours, they must all find a buyer. If they don't, there will be a large stack of sell orders waiting to find a buyer.
                      John Hussman has shown good cause to believe that the stock market will not have any earnings for the next 10--12 years. Everyone is aware that there is little attraction to buying high-priced stocks that have no earning potential.

                      2/05 No bounce yet in U.S. equity futures as investor anxiety grows – Bloomberg
                      2/05 Major indexes in Japan, South Korea, Australia and China fall – CNBC
                      2/05 Yellen warns investors “be careful”, but “don’t label it a bubble” – Zero Hedge
                      Market stumble or something more? – Real Investment Advice
                      The market system is tight in all directions – Fasanara
                      Today’s market is anything but normal – International Man

                      We should see very soon if the FED is going to ignite some kind of rally. Money-renting has just gotten too big. There just isn't enough demand.
                      The grand crowded trade of financial speculation – Credit Bubble Bulletin
                      This brings us to,
                      2/05 European markets plummet amid global selloff – CNBC
                      2/05 Dow falls more than 100 points as stocks resume Friday’s ugly sell-off – Bloomberg
                      2/05 Tesla: recalibration time – Seeking Alpha

                      Apparently, the State is paving the way for gold to make comeback. 2/05 Fines against bullion banks for market rigging vindicate GATA – GATA

                      Here is a vid explaining your future taxes,
                      Here are the numbers for each worker,
                      Armstrong is going to release his program. Will that put everybody on the same side of the boat?


                      • Crunch time

                        2/06 Global sell-off continues into Asia with Japan and Hong Kong plunging – CNBC
                        2/06 Machines raise worries amid market rout – Barron’s
                        ah yes, the algos
                        2/06 The Fed’s dependence on stability – Real Investment Advice Pumping in $27 trillion of new debt doesn't stabilize anything.
                        2/06 Credit Suisse plunges on exposure to volatility ETF – Forex everyone acted like volatility would never return.
                        2/06 Traders panic as XIV disintegrates -90% after the close – Zero Hedge2/06 VIX at 38 is Waterloo for the beloved short volatility trade – Bloomberg

                        2/05 Nikkei, other Asian futures plunging – Business Insider
                        2/05 More than $90 billion in value wiped out from the popular ‘FANG’ tech stocks – CNBC
                        2/05 Dow plunges 1,000 points, S&P 500 now negative for the year – CNBC

                        Goldilocks has flown the coop.

                        2/06 As bitcoin bubble loses air, frauds and flaws rise to surface – NY Times
                        2/06 Bitcoin tumbles almost 20% as crypto backlash accelerates – Bloomberg
                        2/06 Bitcoin is dead? The blockchain didn’t get the memo – Decentralize Today
                        2/05 Bitcoin bloodbath builds – now among biggest crashes ever – Zero Hedge
                        Nuff said.

                        Man is second-rate when it comes to handling big-data.
                        2/06 Robo-advisor websites overwhelmed, crash – CNBC
                        But, THAT is the future.

                        Armstrong, "Politicians just do not get it. They have convinced themselves that they can tax whatever they desire and people have no choice but to pay. Missing in their analysis are two influences (1) people just stop earning income for it reaches a point it is not worth working anymore, and (2) you simply pick-up and leave. "
                        Worth reading,
                        To republicans, everyone is equal at the start of the race
                        To democrats, every one is equal at the end of the race.
                        While the dems and reps have been called 2 wings of the same bird, the republicans were a bit more likely to embrace fiscal conservatives. That was then. This is now.
                        "Indeed, they are the proverbial elephants in the room, thereby giving rise to a considerable irony: To wit, the GOP party of the elephant, which is supposed to be the palladium of financial rectitude in American politics, has forgotten about them completely.

                        For instance, in his triumphalist SOTU, the Donald didn't utter so much as a single syllable about the Fed, the budget, entitlements, the $1 trillion per year deficits looming ahead or the nation's soaring public debt. Yet after omitting virtually everything which counts, he went on to crow about how he is making America Great Again (MAGA) by making better trade deals and borrowing untold sums from future generations."
                        Stockman makes good points but, I suspect that Trump has something up his sleeve.
                        Contra Corner » Two Elephants In The Room That The GOP Has Completely Forgotten
                        Trump is a wily one. He may allow the system to crash and force the FED out of business. He could remodel the system on the Bank of North Dakota. This would be palatable to private banks because they could still make a profit. BND doesn't try to compete with or, exclude private banking. The (currently $450 B) interest drain would not leave GOV coffers. When interest rates rise, GOV interest debt will go up towards $1 trillion. What better time than now (shortly) to propose squeezing out the CB?

                        On the economy, Trump is all talk. I'm guessing that he has a plan but, it is too radical to take off the wraps now. When interest rates hit ABOUT 4%, EVERYBODY will be looking for a fall guy to pin it on AND a savior to rescue them.


                        • The rise and fall of the nation-State

                          Nothing is off-topic because everything affects the economy. I'm looking at more basic problems.
                          Here is an article from Kunstler. He lays out the absolute disintegration of the system. He never like Trump but, he sees the systemic corruption to be far worse than anything that Trump might do.
                          "President Trump himself, the avatar of wished-for return to American greatness, who is looking more and more like Melville’s awful and enigmatic White Whale pursued by single-minded mad men — and, remember, despite all the bloody ire, abuse, and harrassment heaped upon him by the vengeful Ahab, Moby Dick ended up smashing the whaling ship Pequod, and swimming away to legend."
                          You should read all of it.
                          A Quandary - Kunstler

                          Solar power is close enough to free energy to qualify in a certain sense. It allows people to break free (to a certain degree) from the centralized control of the State. There are lots of new devices that can pull water from the air. The State is hard at work trying to cement control. Remote control of electric meters and water meters is just one facet. Brainwashing students is another facet. There are many. To a certain degree, the PTB must keep us poor to keep us working. How many people would opt out of the rat race if they could just set up a little homestead in the desert with a greenhouse and a few chickens?

                          The State goes to great lengths to equate itself 100% with society. Two inseparable constructs. There has been plenty written about a society without a State.
                          Historically, man ONLY organized himself along genetic lines. Our survival system is geared to preserve our genetic lines. Infidelity in women is bad because the man in the relationship might end up supporting somebody else’s genetic line. We organise along lines of family, tribe and clan. A nation is a completely unnatural line of organization. The current push towards socialism attempts to destroy all tribal unity. Flooding Germany, France and England with whatever trash can be found is a clear example of attacking tribal unity.
                          Slovakia has outright refused, Slovakia Will Build Border Wall - PM Says "We Will Never Accept a Single Muslim"
                          They aren't the only ones. EU to sue Poland, Hungary and Czechs for refusing refugee quotas ...
                          EU to sue Poland, Hungary and Czechs for refusing refugee quotas - BBC News

                          Japan doesn't want any foreigners and israel is deporting as many as possible.
                          The Kalergi plan calls for the destruction of the tribes through forced immigration. The tribes are pushing back. Everybody has high hopes for the new leader of Austria. The looming question is: Can you destroy tribal unity and still have national unity?
                          "This is exactly what was predicted by the early Wired founders, who extrapolated from the rise of the web to the “end of the nation-state”. Although that may be going a bit too far, it is worth noting that the nation-state, far from being the Natural State of Man, is actually a relatively recent invention. “Most theories see the nation state as a 19th-century European phenomenon, "

                          "Before the 19th-century, regions were defined by language, religion, ethnicity and the reach of protecting rulers, from kings and sultans to tribal chiefs. So for all but a tiny blip in humanity’s existence ( less than 200 years of our 2 million years on this planet and 6,000 years of civilization) we weren’t ruled by nation-states, and odds are that at some point in the future we won’t be either."
                          "But the notion of national borders and citizenship, defined by laws not ethnicity or tribal, language, religious or cultural affiliation, is both new and fragile. Indeed, it’s looking as temporary as the systems that came before it."
                          Good article.


                          • Are the CBs truly tapering?

                            Here is a graph of the 10 year U.S. bond.
                            Keep in mind that things are predicted to blow up progressively worse when it passes 3%. So, are bonds going up because the CBs are talking up portfolio reduction OR, are they going up because fiscal stimulus is actually being cut back?
                            "But at 26-times GAAP earnings and 21.5-times trailing earnings--and even at 18.5-times next year’s ex-items earnings--the S&P 500 is pricing in a euphoria that is egregiously outlandish even for the carnival barkers on Wall Street.

                            It’s hard to come up with a better example for the market’s latest bubblelicious hysteria than Netflix. The company is projected to post operating free cash flow of about negative $9 billion over the five years ending in this year. Meanwhile, its market cap has soared well over $100 billion. At a PE ratio above 200, Netflix is burning through billions of dollars in cash each year. Yet, its billions of dollars’ worth of bonds are rated B+ by S&P. "
                            "Therefore, when the central bank bids disappear come this fall, the $230 trillion worth of global debt will have to stand on its own wobbly feet for the first time in many years. "
                            "In like manner, who is going to want to own a U.S. 10-year Note that yields 2.7% when the average was well over 7% from the years 1971-2000? Those years are the important ones to analyze because it was after the Fed closed the gold window"
                            "Interest rates are about to become unglued in a big way as this bond bubble explodes. Especially now that the Fed will be selling $600 billion of its balance sheet an annual rate come this fall; just as deficits climb to north of $1 trillion and the total U.S. debt has risen to 350% of GDP."

                            "And as risk premiums become paper thin, the stock market will fall precipitously; just as junk bond yields begin to soar. This will slam the borrowing door shut on high-yield issuances and send these debt-dependent companies into a tailspin. At the same time, every asset that was priced off of those ”risk free” sovereign bond yields, which provided countries the privilege that could only expected in the twilight zone, i.e., to make money by borrowing money,"

                            Carl Icahn has become a doomer,
                            There has been TOO LITTLE emphasis placed on the effects of birth control.
                            "The population is graying quickly. The State Council said last year that about a quarter of China's population will be 60 or older by 2030, up from 13.3% in the 2010 census. Meanwhile, scrapping the one-child policy hasn't raised birth rates as high living costs deter larger families. Births fell to 17.2 million last year from 18.5 million in 2016."
                            PIOnline : Subscription Center

                            Blame it on the bots,
                            Blame it on the drugs,
                            GREAT growth industry, "Sex trafficking—especially when it comes to the buying and selling of young girls—has become big business in America, the fastest growing business in organized crime and the second most-lucrative commodity traded illegally after drugs and guns.

                            As investigative journalist Amy Fine Collins notes, “It’s become more lucrative and much safer to sell malleable teens than drugs or guns. A pound of heroin or an AK-47 can be retailed once, but a young girl can be sold 10 to 15 times a day"


                            • Armstrong,,,Wells Fargo on the chopping block?

                              Armstrong is still hard at work getting his revenge on the banks for throwing him in prison for several years. He has opened up Socrates at a level for the average investor. Remember, the banks can't make money unless somebody else loses money. About every 10 years, they take everybody to the cleaners. There is so much traffic trying to get into Socrates that ; "The Socrates site where the results are posted is on the Amazon Cloud. We had an urgent meeting today to run analysis as for why the system could not handle the massive traffic to the site over the past two days. We found out that it was pushed to 97% CPU capacity."
                              This is going to make it very difficult for the banks to suck in the muppets.

                              "So no, we cannot yet rule out a 2020 low. It all depends upon breaking 19,677.94. If that unfolds, then we are in for a major economic crisis on the Monetary Crisis Cycle going into that which began here in 2018 and goes into 2021 when it goes completely nuts. "

                              "And more than just coincidence on Monday that Powell was sworn in and the very same day the Dow dropped a record 1175 points.

                              The Fed needed to remind Trump who is in charge of the world finances so he doesn't think he is in charge of it."
                              Good riddance, Janet, you were a colossal failure, pt 1 – David Stockman
                              “Opioid Janet” got Wall St hooked on monetary heroin, pt 2 – David Stockman

                              The death of the “death of contagion” central bank meme – Tom Luongo Yep, volatility is back.
                              The FED wanted to cool down the markets but, not TOO cool.
                              "At one point the Dow, which represents only 30 stocks but is still a widely followed indicator, tumbled to a loss of about 1,600 points.

                              That’s as big of a decline as ever.
                              But then something happened. Someone arbitrarily and aggressively started buying stocks and halved the loss. Monday will still go down as a Wall Street massacre but that superhero buyer made it half as bloody."

                              The gold-price manipulators recently got taken to the cleaners. Is this a one-off deal? Is somebody trying to bring back a bit of honesty to markets? is Trump slowly draining the swamp?
                              Years ago, Russia defaulted on it's bonds and brought down Long term Capital Management. LTCM had 2 Nobel prize winners (economics) on it's board. They claimed that even in the whole future of the galaxy, the trades could never go bad. These huge losses threatened to bring down everything. The big banks coughed up the money to save the day,,, except for Bear Stearns. They refused. In the 2008 crash, they were eviscerated.

                              In the 2008 crash Lehman was killed off by Goldman Sachs and a couple of others. GS, et al refused to make bond payments that were owed and due to Lehman Bros. We had a GS guy as secretary of the treasury and he made sure that GS and a few others got money. Lehman was starved and strangled. Dick Fuld and the rest of the clowns at Lehman were CROOKED as could be. Were they killed off for this?

                              Moving ahead in time, Wells Fargo is a global hero when it comes to crooked business. But, times are changing,,, Maybe Trump.
                              Powell was sworn in AND, "Just days after the Fed slammed Wells Fargo on Janet Yellen's last day, by announcing an unprecedented enforcement action in which it prohibited the bank from "growing", effectively making it into a quasi-utility until it fixes its lacking internal control system and replaces much of its board, moments ago S&P added insult to injury by downgrading the largest US mortgage lender from A to A-, due to "Prolonged Regulatory And Governance Issues" with a Stable Outlook."
                              "On Feb. 2, Wells Fargo & Co. ("Wells") became subject to a consent order from the Federal Reserve that caps the company's asset growth until it further enhances its governance and compliance and risk management to the standards required by the regulator."

                              You can read the whole article but, it seems that somebody wants accountability.
                              If Wells has no asset growth, it can't really earn much. It previously laundered hundreds of $billions in drug money. This downgrade will most likely drive away investors who don't want to be caught up in big losses and possible fines for regulatory issues. Wells Fargo may be the next kill-job. CITI and GS and MS won't shed a tear.

                              "The Fed is already destroying money (they do this by not rolling over maturing bonds). Last week, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $22 billion. While that doesn’t seem like much when you’re talking about a $4 trillion balance sheet, it was the Fed’s largest cut to date.

                              Funny how the market hit the skids just after this happened. But you haven’t heard the mainstream media mention that."
                              There are a LOT of people pissed off about big Pharma flooding the streets with drugs. Some professionals grabbed the head of A pharma,,, along with his wife,,,, zip tied them,,, hung them up and, strangled them.
                              I won't shed a tear.

                              "The U.S. Shale Industry hasn’t made any money producing oil since the industry took off in 2008. And it’s even worse than that. Not only have they not made any money, but they have also spent a lot of investor money (most that will never be returned) and added a massive amount of debt to their balance sheets.

                              According to the Financial Times article, In Charts: Has The US Shale Drilling Revolution Peaked?, they provided the following chart on the negative free cash flow in the U.S. Exploration and Production Industry:"
                              "Because shale energy industry is producing a grade of oil that has a very high API gravity (very light oil), we have to export more and more of it as our refiners can’t use it all. The notion that the U.S. decided to start export oil because we have become a leading oil producer is pure BOLLOCKS. The real reason the U.S. Government allowed the exporting of oil in 2015 was that our refining industry couldn’t use it all…LOL."

                              "There’s an old saying about attorneys. “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts into the table. If the law is on your side, pound the law into the table. If neither the facts nor the law are on your side, pound the table.” That can also apply to the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, as it pounds the table in response to a report about the way that CalPERS downplays its unfunded pension liabilities, which are obliterating local budgets."
                              CALPers is screaming that cities MUST raise taxes way up and give the money to CALPers.


                              • Saving the markets day by day,,, sovereign credit rating

                                Stock market getting smoked because inflation is coming back – Business Insider
                                We've seen $200 trillion of new debt pumped into the upper loop. That wasn't a problem. When a little bit of it bleeds over into the lower loop, THEN it is a problem.
                                2/08 US stocks fall hard at the open – CNBC cut off the heroin/Viagra cocktail and,,, see what happens. The PPT will have to ride to the rescue again today.
                                2/08 US 10-year Treasury yield continues rebound, nears 4-year high – CNBC This can't truly be called a rebound. More accurately, it is a suicide march.
                                2/07 Stocks erase sharp gains as wild ride on Wall Street continues – CNBC Hussman has shown that there will be no returns on stocks for many years. There is no reason to stay in the market.
                                2/07 World’s largest ETF hit by biggest four-day outflow on record – Bloomberg

                                2/07 Trump allies encouraging him to compromise with Robert Mueller – CNBC
                                Second Trump-Russia dossier being assessed by FBI | US news | The ...
                                Jan 30, 2018

                                Did you notice that; the more / longer that "they" investigate Trump, the more dirt they find on the Dems? Not just Dems, Steve Wynn is in deep do-do. The Russia investigation has poked several holes in the bottom of the swamp. Killary is more toxic that cyanide.
                                2/07 Jeff flake blasts Donald Trump ‘treason’ comments – Time He blasts the comments. The cites of treason still stand,,, according to U.S. law.

                                The U.S credit rating agencies are PAID by the companies and entities that they rate. The agencies marked giga-tons of sub-prime debt as being AAA because the companies that sold it were AAA. They claimed innocence when it All collapse in 2008.

                                " S&P had announced a negative outlook on the AAA rating in April 2011. The downgrade to AA+ occurred four days after the 112th United States Congress voted to raise the debt ceiling of the federal government by means of the Budget Control Act of 2011"
                                "Moody's first assigned the United States a AAA rating in 1917"
                                S&P caught a lot of flak after they downgraded U.S. debt. The agencies now know that they can downgrade anything except for sovereign debt.
                                Not ALL rating agencies are in America.
                                "Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (“Dagong”) has decided to downgrade both the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of the United States of America (hereinafter referred to as "the United States" or “the US”) from A- to BBB +, and each with a negative outlook."