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  • unloved economists... pressures in the bond market

    Somewhere, I posted a summation from Jim Rickards of exactly which economic "rules" most accurately represent true economic activity. Austrian Economics is the runner-up as far as accuracy. WAY down the list is our current body of economic "law". Not only has much of it been incorrect, much of it has been opposite of reality. The FED completely controls academia as far as remuneration and publishing go. The economists just had a big pow-wow in Chicago. The humor should NOT be lost that they had their pow-wow in a completely corrupt and bankrupt city. The corruption is, of course, centered on GOV employees. https://mishtalk.com/2017/01/09/expl...ea-one-person/

    Academia has their collective heads up in the clouds. These clouds are brown and smelly
    According to Martin Armstrong, the only people who truly understand the economy are the multi-national hedge fund managers who understand global capital flows. This makes sense because everything moves all over the globe. Academia is just too self-serving. As long as the follow the program from the FED and the bankers, they can't be counted on to have any objectivity.

    The gold-bugs present a different story than the bankers but, you have to take into account that they too are biased. Just read everybody and come to whatever conclusion best seems to fit the facts.

    Andy Hoffman writes very well even though he is centered on precious metals. The Death Throes Of ?Money? | SilverSeek.com
    He writes about the "death of money". Money isn't likely to die as long as there is supply-and-demand for things that are needed for survival. The bond market is a different story.
    Hoffman also writes about the death of the European Union. https://www.milesfranklin.com/death-...plosion-hence/above?Financial Repression Authority

    There is something like $ 13 trillion in negative-yield bonds. The bond loss is the percentage loss between inflation and yields. Normally, investors would sell the bonds and go to greener pastures. This forces the CB to raise offered rates. If there are no markets that offer a better return, investors move to gold to preserve value. It has been well-proven in the courts that precious metals have been suppressed.
    If the sovereign bond markets melt down as Armstrong predicts, capital would have to move somewhere else. Stocks are over-valued by about 70% so that doesn't look good. Commodities depend on consumption from a consumer base that has falling wages.

    The U.S. dollar has a great utility value because it is so widely recognised and accepted as a currency. It's pretty sucky as a store-of-value. In the role of store-of-value, gold is more widely accepted than the U.S. dollar. Turkey is the number one buyer of gold per-capita. The stash of private gold in India is about 20,000 tons. The State is adamant that all wealth remain IN the system so that the bankers and the taxman have access to it. BUT, the system just isn't that simple. If all "money" is debt money, how can it be considered wealth?
    Bonds are debt-notes. Their value depends on the wealth of the State of issuance. GDP is a measure of the money in circulation at a given moment. Actual wealth is a different story. The wealth of America is falling and bond holders are scheduled for a big squeeze.

    Comment


    • The reserve currency= slow poison

      States generally go off the gold standard any time that they are planning to go to war. That way, they can wage war on their credit card. America unwisely went to war in Indo-China while it was on the gold standard. In the summer of 1971, the gold outflow from the treasury was 100 tons a week. We went off the gold standard. Great Britain passed the baton of empire to America after WW II. Out of necessity, we have stayed off the gold standard.


      As explained by Triffin's dilemma, the owner of the reserve currency holds a special position in the financial world. The whole world demands that we run a trade deficit so that they can hold our bonds as a store of wealth. They have financed our war-mongers.

      Bloomberg says that cheap money is here to stay, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...e-here-to-stay
      Mac Slavo says that cheap money is coming to an end, The Era Of Cheap Money Is Ending: "This Is The Calm Before The Storm" | Zero Hedge
      The Bank of England is out to lunch,,, still. Why modern monetary policy doesn't work – the models it uses are horribly out of date - MoneyWeek
      Not surprisingly, internet sales and general poverty is killing retail outlets, "Sears is currently more than 1.6 billion dollars in debt, and they are losing more than a billion dollars a year. " "As you read this article, more than 95 million Americans are not in the labor force, and that number has grown by 18 percent under Barack Obama. "
      It?s A Retail Apocalypse: Sears, Macy?s And The Limited Are All Closing Stores
      I don't think that this is the "hope and change" that obummer had in mind.

      I guess that they won't be able to pay for the wall.

      Here is an excellent graph showing paper reserves in central banks. http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/Res2016.png
      Sr. Price writes an excellent article on the movement of wealth and currency from the reserve currency (RC) state(s) to the rest-of-the-world (ROW) States. The article is somewhat convoluted but, it is important to understand it.

      "International Reserves have been falling because they are made up of Bonds issued by RC, and these bonds are being sold off for cash; the purchasers may be either the banks of the RC or the RC Central Banks. In other words, Bonds held as Reserves are being liquidated by ROW Central Banks hungry for RC cash"
      This is a very important concept to understand. Cash IS in demand. Bonds are NOT in demand.
      "Inflation is always and everywhere, the result of governments and their banking systems working together to increase spending; inflation can be a long drawn-out process, little noticeable by the population. Deflation on the other hand, is the result of actions on the part of the public, and deflation can take place at great speed"
      "There is an undesirable consequence for the RC in doing this, because the advantage for the RC of running a permanent trade deficit with ROW brings with it the inevitable demolition of RC industry, as imports, necessarily cheaper, overwhelm local industrial activity." Check

      The State can easily bring about currency inflation, usually resulting in price inflation. Currency inflation to the State is as natural as water is to a fish. The State stands at the outlet of the printing press and spends it on whatever it wants. The State controls currency inflation. The public control currency deflation. The money supply includes currency AND credit. If the public refuse to utilize credit, the State can't do much about it. Cash is a debt-note just like bonds BUT, cash can be traded in the lower loop. Bonds can only be redeemed in the upper loop.

      The reserve-currency status allowed us to wage LOTS of wars. It also allowed us to shut down domestic industry. We could buy anything and pay with confetti. The reserve currency allowed us to go around the world making war on anything that moved but, it is slow poison to the producing economy. We could have done things differently and enjoyed the "Peace dividend". BUT, money corrupts and attracts the already-corrupted. We are a nation focused on endless war and maximum killing. What does that do to us as a people.

      U.S. military suicides remain high for 7th year - USA Today
      Soldier Suicide Statistics In Israel: More Israeli Fighters Kill Themselves Than Die In Battle

      I'm sure that the psychopaths don't lose any sleep.

      Comment


      • Hideous Constellation of Threats and Challenges Facing Mexico | Wolf Street
        The euro currency could collapse within a decade without serious reform, French presidential hopeful Emmanuel Macron has warned, saying that the current system benefits Germany at the expense of other weaker member states.

        The EU has entered a phase of disintegration, demonstrated by the increasing numbers of Europeans calling for national referendums on EU membership, Serbian deputy Sanda Raskovic Ivic and French politician Francois Asselineau told Sputnik.


        The State creates monetary inflation and the public creates monetary deflation. The investors vacillates between greed and fear. The Central bank only knows fear. Fear of deflation. The investor can lose money but, the CB can't. Every time that fear creeps up on the investor, the CB pumps more free money into the system. Out of habit, the CB tries to stop ALL cleansing of the system. BUT, debt grows too high and fast when it is compounded. http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/Res2016.png
        Gold is the governor on the system but, gold has been pushed aside.

        China "won" the currency war. This causes capital flight. Fleeing capital takes along with it, CONFIDENCE. Most of what keeps the bond market going is confidence.
        China's S$5.5 trillion wealth products reel as bond binge unwinds, Banking News & Top Stories - The Straits Times

        "The virtually bankrupt investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs told the Fed and thus all central bankers what they needed to do to save the system and another massive dose of Black Magic was created to the extent of around $25 trillion. This made it possible for the bankers to hold onto their global financial empire and maintain control of the money."
        "Since the crisis started in 2006, global debt has gone up by 70%."
        "not due to a real improvement in productivity but mainly to global debt going from virtually zero one hundred years ago, to $230 trillion today. "
        "The market which has gone up a massive 35 X over a 42 year period. This is a compound annual growth rate of almost 9%. That means that on average a stock market investor has doubled his money every 8 years. "

        Yeah, on the backs of out falling wages.
        At the beginning of a new year it would be totally natural to forecast what the likely events and trends will be for 2017. A lot of experts around the world will predict a number of “new” events as if a lot of things will change just because we are entering a new year.


        Recognising the demographic crash, the IRS pays you to have kids. "As one of the largest anti-poverty programs, the earned income tax credit paid out $72 million to 29 million families in 2014. In that same year, the additional child tax credit provided an additional $27 billion to 20 million families."
        With tax season looming, more than 40 million low-income American families will not be getting their tax refunds as soon as expected.

        Comment


        • That much?

          Originally posted by Danny B View Post
          Recognising the demographic crash, the IRS pays you to have kids. "As one of the largest anti-poverty programs, the earned income tax credit paid out $72 million to 29 million families in 2014. In that same year, the additional child tax credit provided an additional $27 billion to 20 million families."
          $2.48 per family average?

          Comment


          • 000000000000000000000000

            You would be amazed how often I find figures that are considerably OFF. I try to correct them. I didn't catch that one.
            "During the 2015 tax year, the average EITC was $3,186 for a family with children (boosting wages by about $265 a month), compared with just $293 for a family without children. "
            Policy Basics: The Earned Income Tax Credit | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
            million---billion,,, what's the difference?

            Comment


            • An estimated 40,000 cars are burned in France every year — a destruction often attributed to rival Muslim gangs. Every day, more than 80 cars are burned. The rector of the Grand Mosque of Paris, Dalil Boubakeur, called for the number of mosques in France
              Some people would argue that 2016 was the year that the world economy started to come apart, with the passage of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Whether or not the “coming apart&#822…


              " paychecks of workers in 2017 will tend to purchase fewer goods "

              Yep, price inflation in necessities cuts down purchases of everything else.
              That would include, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance funds, retirees, savers, banks, et al, et al. There are a LOT of ignorant people and institutions.


              Chicago public employees demanded raises of from 19---26%. If you think that GOV employees are not a big part of the problem, you should do further reading. If you are a GOV employee, you are probably painfully aware that you could never survive in the private sector.
              Try dragging your feet to stop a runaway freight train.

              Comment


              • various headlines,,, various BS

                That growth includes all the new money (bonds) printed.
                Robust lending to service previous debt.
                The fur is flying.
                VIX is the "fear index". They don't have a "greed" index.
                Pox Americana is looking high and low for anybody they can fine the snot out of.

                Ah, did Chinese gold collapse?
                Ah yes,, demand for cash, not for bonds.
                She is a tempestuous slut.

                Kunstler has something to say, America Versus the Deep State - KUNSTLER

                Comment




                • The CBs are terrified of price deflation because the credit airplane can only stay aloft of there is systemic inflation,,, usually resulting from price inflation.
                  In a healthy economy, there is a natural price inflation driven by demand. In our fully automated system, there is no limit to supply so, we rarely see price inflation driven by supply constraints. To keep the credit airplane flying, the CBs must create price inflation artificially.
                  The "benefits" of CB inflation have only reached a small percentage of the population. The remainder of the population is experiencing WAGE deflation so, demand is shrinking.
                  The less we see of demand-driven price inflation, the more that the CB has to try to force artificial price inflation. They have had MAJOR successes in the upper loop. They have failed in the lower loop. As they drive up prices of basic necessities, they have driven down consumption of everything else.

                  As more investors abandon the bond market, the CB has to buy more and more. This extra printing leads to more price inflation in the upper loop. Part of this bleeds-over to the lower loop and diminishes the purchasing power of the bonds. The "bond vigilantes" demand higher interest. The CB prints more
                  to meet the higher cost of debt service.

                  Comment




                  • The CBs removed risk and started a big party. The party has gotten out of hand because nobody ever lost any money. They just kept gambling.
                    "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell. And right now, we need to audit and abolish the Fed, the Bank and the ECB, which started this mess, and slay the zombies. "
                    Mitchell Feierstein: Abolish central banks and slay the zombies | London Evening Standard

                    Rense; Beijing Warns US Only 'Large Scale War' Can Stop
                    China From Accessing Its South China Sea Islands


                    China-US WAR May Be Inevitable - Chinese MediaTen Aircraft Carriers Aligned in a Row -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org
                    The article has an interesting report on copper.

                    The BIS is buying hundreds of tons of the "barbaric relic" Gold swaps by BIS exploded in 2016 from nothing to record level | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

                    Comment


                    • Debt that won't go away,, PBGC,,Pensions WILL go away

                      This is what Trump inherits; http://i0.wp.com/money.visualcapital...art.png?w=1360
                      "Back in 1979, the debt-to-GDP ratio was a modest 31.8%, and the federal government only had an outstanding tab of $826 billion. Fast forward to today, and the perpetual borrowing has added up.
                      The debt-to-GDP is now 104.2%, with the total debt burden nearing the $20 trillion mark." NOT including unfunded liabilities.Visualizing Donald Trump's $20 Trillion Problem | Zero Hedge

                      For most people, 2017 will be the year of the inability to understand where their favorite worldview flew off the rails. Change can be a bitch.


                      The Economist is the mouthpiece of the elites. They are all excited that inflation is returning. They are definitely out of touch. Inflation is on the way back in the rich world, and that is good news | The Economist
                      Here is something that is a more accurate portrayal. The Psychology of Soft Slavery : Waking Times

                      Comment


                      • Obummercare and other gifts to the cartels

                        Roughly
                        Obamacare was just a big gift to the insurance companies to keep them solvent when their customers were/are all broke.

                        Wages have gone nowhere for the last 20 years.There is no more "fat of the land" to keep all the parasites going. Millennials earn 20% less than Boomers did at same stage of life
                        The State is the friend of the rich who control it. It is NOT your friend.
                        As wages in the lower loop slipped away, the upper loop was forced to print more money to keep things going in the upper loop. Here is an article with EXCELLENT graphs that make it very clear about the new "highs" that we are achaiving. RealVision's 15 "Killer Charts" For Q1 2017 | Zero Hedge
                        The upper loop doesn't want to shrink no matter what happens to actual wealth production by the lower loop. So, what will the result be?


                        Yes grasshopper,,, what if population growth is negative? Ref Japan
                        The PTB just have no idea whatsoever of how scientific and cultural changes are going to play out. They want to maintain the status quo when, it just isn't possible. https://medium.com/abundance-insight...f74#.ls1yuvs59

                        It's not stupid if it makes money for the offence industry and their bankers.
                        Don't worry, the FED will buy everything.
                        Are they going to cram the monetary gearbox into reverse at 60 mph to screw Trump?

                        No problem, uncle Sam will take care of them for the rest of their lives.
                        Our wages went away but, the financial industry grew and grew. In the balance between greed & fear, the FED always managed to wipe out fear. With moral and financial hazard removed from the markets, money flowed into bad investments. Bad investments climb and climb. The FED has to buy up defaulting paper more and more.
                        Last edited by Danny B; 01-16-2017, 03:01 AM. Reason: miss smelling

                        Comment


                        • Marginal productivity of debt.,,, reproductive strategies

                          Retail sales have fallen to online sales. Retail banking has fallen because of online banking. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/a...es-780x439.jpg
                          Wells Fargo is closing over 400 bank branches - Jan. 13, 2017

                          Long explanation;
                          "But soon enough some banks joined the conspiracy and started sheltering the fictitious bills in their portfolio of assets. For the Acceptance House and the conspiring banks this was a lucrative business. It allowed them to pocket the spread between the higher interest rate and the lower discount rate, to which they were not entitled. They wanted to profit but without taking risks. Not only did they take no risks, neither did they provide a service to society that might have justified the profit. The business of selling fictitious bills against buying bonds is called illicit interest arbitrage."

                          "The speculator has no right to shift his risks onto the shoulder of society"


                          It won't post so, I'm going to try to break it up

                          Comment


                          • second part

                            "The key to understanding the problem is the marginal productivity of debt, a concept curiously missing from the vocabulary of mainstream economics. Keynesians take comfort in the fact that total debt as a percentage of total GDP is safely below 100 (no longer)in the United States while it is 100 and perhaps even more in some other countries 300% in a few). However, the significant ratio to watch is additional debt to additional GDP, or the amount of GDP contributed by the creation of $1 in new debt. It is this ratio that determines the quality of debt."

                            "If, as in the worst-case scenario, the ratio falls into negative territory, the message is that the economy is on a collision course and crash in imminent. Not only does more debt add nothing to the GDP, in fact, it causes economic contraction

                            Comment


                            • Third part

                              "The year 2006 was the watershed. Late in that year the marginal productivity of debt dropped to zero and went negative for the first time ever, switching on the red alert sign to warn of an imminent economic catastrophe. Indeed, in February, 2007, the risk of debt default as measured by the skyrocketing cost of CDS (credit default swaps) exploded and, as the saying goes, the rest is history."

                              "Why is a negative marginal productivity of debt a sign of an imminent economic catastrophe? Because it indicates that any further increase in indebtedness would necessarily cause economic contraction."
                              "In view of the fact that the marginal productivity of debt is now negative we can see that the damage-control measures of the Obama administration, which are financed through creating unprecedented amounts of new debt, are counter-productive. Nay, they are the direct cause of further economic contraction of an already prostrate economy, including unemployment."
                              http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...ntal+E.+Fekete

                              Big cracks in the system; These 8 men are richer than 3.6 billion people combined - Jan. 15, 2017

                              We suffered price inflation but, NO wage inflation. Home ownership is WAY down. The other big-ticket item is , children. So, we cut that out too. GOV opened the southern border because it is cheaper to poach people from a high birth-rate State than it is to grow them at home. Mexico's fertility rate dropped from 6.2 to 2.6. Most of the flow stopped. GOV pumps money into programs to help finance the production of children but, it just isn't enough.
                              $1/4 million to produce a child for just 17 years does NOT include higher education.
                              Cost of raising a child: $233,610 - Jan. 9, 2017

                              Comment


                              • Fourth part

                                Apparently, GOV is experimenting with bringing in warm bodies from societies that still have a high birth rate. BUT, they have an entirely different reproduction strategy that runs counter to what rational, thinking societies use as reproduction strategy.
                                "There are two basic reproductive strategies according to the r/K Selection Theory.* r is the reproductive strategy used by populations with high mortality and abundant resources. The strategy is basically to reproduce as quickly as possible, with quantity over quality of offspring, and little or no parental support."

                                "K is the reproductive strategy used when there is competition for limited resources among members. The strategy is basically to delay reproduction, select mates carefully, and monogamy, with quality over quantity for offspring, e.g. long maturation of offspring and delayed sexual activity"
                                The Rabbit, the Libertarian, and the Wolf: The Truth about r/K Selection Theory – TRUTH IS JUSTICE

                                Comment

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