Solar's future's about to get a whole lot brighter thanks to the Moore's Law of PVs

[Ein~+ein]

I'm looking for alternatives to solar...

You may not need to. Heard of Swanson's Law? It's the Moore's Law of PV and it's about to dramatically reduce PV production costs and increase efficiency:

Pricing sunshine - The Economist
Dec 28th 2012


And here's the tech that'll do it (in 5 ways):Sun Plus Nanotechnology: Can Solar Energy Get Bigger by Thinking Small? -National Geographic (Daily News)
April 28, 2013

... Advances in nanotechnology will lead to higher efficiencies and lower costs. Today's commercial solar cells, usually fashioned from silicon are still relatively expensive to produce even though prices have come down, and they generally manage to capture only 10 to 20% ...

Even at the current 10 to 20%, it may be worth a second look as these 5 Myths about Solar Panels suggest.

[Ein~+ein]

Another milestone for solar is this flight across America just begun:

Solar-powered plane completes first leg of American odyssey - FutureTech on NBCNews.com

Solar Impulse's power comes from its 12,000 photovoltaic cells, which soak up sunlight and store the electrical energy in batteries for use when the sun isn't shining. The plane generates as much power as a motor scooter for its four 10-horsepower motors. That's why the carbon-fiber craft has to be so big and light.

Anyone have the specs on those PVs?

[Ein~+ein]

Solar Energy: This Is What a Disruptive Technology Looks Like


[IMG]https://d233eq3e3p3cv0.cloudfront.net/max/700/0*jv_GwoCxJsAhMGvU.png[/IMG]

If you're as skeptical as me you'll wonder why the price of crude doesn't fluctuate (see explanation below). But despite that, what's clear from this and that other article is that once solar reaches the critical 'leveled' per watt price threshold, every building will be a collector.

The graph above charts the inflation adjusted price of different types of energy, not in terms of gallons, but in terms of gigajoules of energy (a gigajoule is one billion Joules, the standard metric unit for energy). Pricing energy commodities in terms of their energy content makes it easier to compare the relative cost of different sources of energy.

Using data from the Energy Information Agency, I pulled together a history of retail prices for natural gas, crude oil, gasoline and residential electricity, all adjusted for inflation. For each energy source, I converted the prices to $/gigajoule, ...

[gene gene]

Hi Ein~+ein, thanks for the link.

[IMG]https://d233eq3e3p3cv0.cloudfront.net/max/700/0*jv_GwoCxJsAhMGvU.png[/IMG]

This graph points to a good future for solar energy, but I have read I think in the American ruling class thread, that the power mongers or energy cartel will not allow any solar technologies of higher efficiencies to reach the marketplace because it would be disruptive to their money flows. If you have interest in this I will try to find a link.

Gene

[Ein~+ein]

Hi Ein~+ein, thanks for the link.

[IMG]https://d233eq3e3p3cv0.cloudfront.net/max/700/0*jv_GwoCxJsAhMGvU.png[/IMG]

This graph points to a good future for solar energy, but I have read I think in the American ruling class thread, that the power mongers or energy cartel will not allow any solar technologies of higher efficiencies to reach the marketplace because it would be disruptive to their money flows. If you have interest in this I will try to find a link.

Gene

So, plenty of scientists all around the world only 'pretend' to advance solar tech, thwarted from any real success. How many 'disobedient' ones have died or disappeared...any idea?

Gene, here's how it works. If you can't provide substantive evidence, as a last resort, make up a conspiracy theory because it's even harder to refute... or is it? Think about it. If you honestly believe MiB are everywhere, successfully preventing each and every one of us from inventing, replicating or accessing/sharing accurate and comprehensive schematics for working FE devices then.... BEWARE!!! The vast majority of contributors on this forum then can only be secret agents--trust no one, not even me!

[gene gene]

Perhaps You Are Not To Be Trusted.

[future pather]

Here is one company who's technology is currently lowering the costs of solar panel production

OPTIWAVE BY BANYAN | Banyan Energy

[Ein~+ein]

Here is one company who's technology is currently lowering the costs of solar panel production

Not really. Adding mirrors, prisms or lenses to focus more sunlight onto the otherwise low-efficiency/high cost solar cells (a new trend) is a work-around but it's not going to lower production costs any. It might be worth noting the energy efficiency of solar at 6–40% (technology dependent, 15% most often, 85–90% theoretical limit) with photosynthesis which is even lower at only up to 6%. Thought I read that satellite solar is up to 40% efficient but no, gene_gene, I wouldn't expect you or I could afford it.

[bolt1]

If you live in a nice sunny place then fine but i am in the UK and solar is pretty $hit here more often than not. I got a tiny backup system 2 panels 500 watts and 500 Ah of lead batteries, 4000w inverter.

It is fine ONLY for a power outage backup system i doubt it will every actually pay for itself. The quick rule of thumb is each 250w panel will save £50 per year in electric.

During end of Sept through to March in cold mostly over cast rainy skies and hardly any sun the typical noon power collected drops to less than 10% of the panel rating. This means 500w panels are lucky to see 50 watts more often 20 watts. Solar PV being what they are indeed very solar dependent albeit solar activist will tell you they work just fine in cloudy days which if course is not true. I am sure all these chemtrails don't help much either. This equates to a full system 4kw PV will struggle to hit 400w over the heavy cloudy winter months around mid day. When divided out over a 24 period the average power can be as bad as about 40 watts for 4kw of PV on the roof. ... enough for one light bulb.

SO The first thing you MUST do to save energy is a full home audit! Change lights to 12v or low power LED lights, Look to convert as much stuff over to 12v as possible so as not to use the inverter or grid tie. Swap old tower PC's often using well over 150-200w for newer laptops <50w or even better use ipads and tablets under 10 watts.

Don't use the clothes dryer unless you have no other way as this is the worse thing ever invented! Each load cost about 50p for 90 mins. I know if you got kids it could be needed every day sometimes 2 loads a day but try and hang as much as possible outside or use indoor air racks.

Big arse TV's might be nice but a 42" plasma runs around 200w-250w and over 10 hours a day will use 2.5kWh just watching TV. Try to get out of the habit the TV is on for the kids and do something else instead.

Switch off everything not in use, Leaving chargers and things on standby can easy waste another 30-50w in the background.

Look at the way you using the Central heating boiler (furnace). Mine is quite old about 12 years now but was surprised it takes 100w for the pump with heating and water ticking over all day and when the burner lights it draws over 250w. When i discovered this i now use the heating for quick short blasts when needed and NOT set running in the background on constant.

Last surprise is the electric kettle. If you can use the gas stove instead. There is a big debate over what is cheaper to use but despite rising gas cost is still very much cheaper to use gas instead for heating and cooking including the kettle. Switching to a gas kettle saves around 25%-30% costs versus electric by my own meter readings. The gas hob "waste" is actually useful as it heats the kitchen.

Here is a big problem with solar. Most installations big or small going to take about 10 years to get the install cost money back. So it has to survive the NEXT 10 years through accidental or even deliberate damage theft etc and then through increasing worsening weather changes, hurricanes, tornadoes, landslides, meteorites and extreme heat then extreme cold and Solar CME's.....it only needs one good X flare and everything is toast.

[gene gene]

Ein~+ein,
I agree with you that with higher efficiencies comes higher costs and longer pay back times.

If anyone here in the U.S. is thinking about installing a solar system, some time spent here DSIRE: Database of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Solar Incentives, Rebates, Programs, Policy will most likely save you some money!!

Going to the link and clicking on your state brings up a whole page of links that may be of benefit. The government does seem to offer some good incentives, grants and rebates to help with cost of going solar.

Regards, Gene

[Danny B]

I don't know the details but;
Patent filing claims a solar breakthrough | | The Bulletin

[Allcanadian]

@DannyB
From the link you posted--

“Anybody who is skilled in the art and understands what he’s proposing is going to have this dumbfounding reaction: ‘Oh, well it’s obvious it’ll work,’" said Darnell, a biochemist with an extensive background in thermodynamics.

Power at 2 cents per kilowatt-hour and a 2 to 3 year payback ... yea he's a dead man.

I like the fact that it is most likely so simple that even a child could understand it yet none of the supposed experts thought of it ... think about that. Simple if not blatantly obvious yet none of the other self-proclaimed experts in this field thought of it. This is because experts are great at memorizing things already known but 99% of them never actually improve anything. That is the role of the inventor and an inventor does not need credentials all they need is creativity, an open mind and determination.
Priceless

AC

[Blargus]

I don't know the details but;
Patent filing claims a solar breakthrough | | The Bulletin

He supposedly has a system that captures heat radiation yet has hardly any (none?) radiative losses.

Mike

[Ein~+ein]

Ein~+ein,
I agree with you that with higher efficiencies comes higher costs and longer pay back times.

Most installations big or small going to take about 10 years to get the install cost money back.

While that's currently the case, the point of this thread is to report how and why that's about to change. What other energy source has been steadily dropping in price over decades? Here's another news item, this one from MIT:

New Method Makes Solar-Cell Production Cheaper, Easier
Crystal Solar’s approach simplifies the manufacturing of silicon wafers and eliminates some expensive equipment.

By Kevin Bullis on September 18, 2012
The Korean company Hanwha SolarOne has shown the first commercial-sized solar panel to use a novel technology ... potentially cutting wafer costs in half. Wafers account for a third to a half of the cost of making a solar panel...
...a few years ago, the prospect of solar panels that cost less than $1 per watt to make seemed far-fetched.

I can personally vouch for the expense of making solar cells and the industry competition, I've seen the sapphire furnaces that crystallize silicon. It takes weeks of extreme heat to make just one boule (cylinder) that's later cut into wafers. Were it not for the competition within the industry, I wouldn't have done so as I went along with a private investigator/corporate spy.

[Allcanadian]

Notice the mention of thermodynamics and the term "solar trap". Solar trap = solar heat sink and I would bet money it is not all that different if not identical to the Dennis Lee heat pump scheme.
Dennis Lee Heat Pump.flv - YouTube

The system is fairly simple and obvious and it is simply a matter of conversion efficiency. Now if we had a compressor/expander running at above 90% efficiency the impossible would be quite easy.

The thing to remember here is that conventional electrical solar panels running at 10% conversion efficiency and near $6/watt installed is still a losing proposition. It is no different than our car running at 16% total efficiency and we can dress it up but that don't change it's crappy engineering.

What we need are systems running near 100% efficiency and the fact that our average is closer to 20% for everything we build does not inspire a great deal of confidence that anybody knows what their doing. How can a person call themselves an "expert" then design a system below 20% efficiency?, it would seem to be a contradiction in terms.

AC