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  #2881  
Old 08-07-2018, 02:47 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fantasy employment,,, fantasy bonds

"It is the same with money. The prevailing paradigm—the dollar-centric view—is akin to the Medieval geocentric view. This view is characterized by two premises. One, the dollar is money. And two, the value of money is not defined in terms of gold (which is believed to be just a commodity like oil or wheat). The value of money is defined as the inverse of the general price level. This means: what you can buy is intrinsic to the currency."
"They accept that what you can buy is a property of the currency itself, missing that in Venezuela you can’t buy anything anymore, because of the socialist dictatorship.

Everyone knows that the dollar loses value. The Federal Reserve’s target is to make the dollar lose 2 percent per annum. The dollar goes down, and this is not a bug but a feature."

"Being money, the dollar is therefore the unit of account. However, this contradicts the fact that the dollar goes down. A unit has to be stable, to be useful to measure anything. So how do people reconcile this contradiction? The dollar is the unit of account, but the dollar is constantly shrinking—i.e. it fails as a unit."
"And they use this consumer price index to define the value of money. They claim to measure the purchasing power of money. Remember that prices are measured in money. So measuring money in terms of prices is circular reasoning."
"Grant Williams said that gold is the only commodity that does not go no bid. In times of crisis, ordinary things go no bid. "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-5-august-2018

Armstrong, "The U.S. dollar has been climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s."
I do not understand how he can factor in this "low unemployment"

Side note, "Since the neoliberal 90s, America has been steadily thirdworldized. Over 21% of workers wanting jobs can’t find them.

Millions of industrial and other high-pay jobs were offshored to low-wage countries. Ones remaining are mostly rotten temp or part-time, low pay/poor or no benefit service ones with no futures – paying poverty or sub-poverty wages.
The Friday-reported 3.9% unemployment rate reflects pure fantasy."
"Protracted main street depression conditions persist for most working-age Americans – reflected by real unemployment at 21.5%, along with most available jobs paying poverty or sub-poverty wages"
https://stephenlendman.org/2018/08/f...ty-in-america/

Continuing with Armstrong. Does his embrace of BS employment statistics invalidate his conclusions?
"We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates explode exponentially. "
"In Japan, there to they have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? "
"Trump has publicly been criticizing the dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar "
"So hang on to your hat. The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from 1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...llar-strength/

Armstrong, "I have stated bluntly that the forecasts made at Davos and the Bilderberg Meetings are ALWAYS wrong! Even the BBC asked why do economists get it so wrong? These meetings are often used as proof of some world order that creates everything intentionally be it a boom or a bust. I have stated countless times that if there really was some giant conspiracy that controlled the world, they would NEVER call me in for help or even explanations. The far more scary reality is the powers that be are clueless and are ruling by the seat of their pants."
"It just seems as if those in power are often the people who have little experience in the real world and could not make it there so they gravitate toward government and power. "

"I have worked around the world. Politicians are the same everywhere. They will act ONLY out of their own self-interest."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...r-hate-speech/

"John Williams at Shadowstats.com reckons that the real unemployment rate in the US is 21.4%. Unimpressed by the US State’s insane assumption that all those no longer able to claim unemployment welfare “have found a job”, Mr Williams provides further fuel for my longstanding thesis that no real recovery can occur – if more and more mass-market consumers work fewer and fewer hours for less and less money or have no job at all – because their personal disposable income is disappearing out of sight."
"eorge Osborne immediately gave notice that he’d be switching from the higher RPI measure of inflation (then at 5.2%) to the lower CPI at 4.5%. That doesn’t sound like much, but one has to remember two things: first, that is a 14% difference in levels that makes inflation look much lower; and second, over time the different impression given is huge: from 1996 to 2011, under the RPI system prices rose 53.6%….but using the CPI method, it only came to 35.6%.

Significantly, the CPI system excludes financial services costs and government charges to the consumer. Just fancy that."
"But “a job” to most people over the last half century meant 38-40 hours a week with a month’s notice. When analysed, these new jobs were averaging 20 hours a week, often at unsocial hours and frequently on no contracts at all. They typically demand, for example, that the “employee” be ready to come into the workplace without notice"
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2018/08...-dictatorship/

8/07 Fears of a ‘car-crash Brexit’ make life difficult for Mark Carney – Guardian

"Before Keynes there were macro considerations, which were firmly grounded in human action, the personal preferences and choices exercised by individuals in the context of their own earnings and profits. In order to give a role to the state, Keynes had to get away from human action and devise a positive management role for central planners. "
A centrally managed and planed economy is of great appeal to government wonks because it guarantees them a job niche regardless of abilities. It is also appealing to war-mongers and bankers and the corporatocracy. They buy politicians and get whatever wars and monopolies they want. GOV sells bonds to pay for all the hanger-ons.
51% of Americans receive a check from GOV.
History shows that taxes are raised to pay for all of this until, there is a revolution or State bankruptcy. The numbers suggest that the revolutions will start in Southern Europe. The Blob State is bankrupting the rest of the workers.
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  #2882  
Old 08-08-2018, 04:44 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Italain bonds,,,wealth gap,,,big zombies,,, nobody working

The claim is made that taxes will be raised to pay for pensions, NO MATTER how high the taxes go.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/pensi...alth-mortgage/
"Markets fear the nation may be headed for a collision course with European Union partners as the two parties in Italy’s ruling coalition pledge to implement bold spending plans next year."
" European Central Bank, which is due to cut its bond-buying program to 15 billion euros a month in October and then end purchases in December. "
Ah yes. The Italian GOV is going to spend LOTS of money. The ECB is going to stop buying Italian sovereign bonds.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UCAs9C6PiHJUw/

"The top 1% of Americans took home more than 22% of all income in 2015, the study found. That’s the highest share since a peak of 23.9% just before the Great Depression in 1928. "
"In nine states in the U.S., the top 1% represents more than half of all income growth."
"New York’s Alexa Ocasio-Cortez winning an upset victory in June’s Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district running on a platform of Medicare for all and reining in Wall Street. She also supports the idea of a government program guaranteeing paid jobs for anybody who wants one. "
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...ion-2018-07-19
Who wants a job when the dole pays better AND does not cut into your free time?

Here is a graph showing a 15 year period of debt unwind after the 1930 crash. It shows a MUCH smaller unwind after the 2009 crash. That is how much further we are going to fall.
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/g...323309-pix.png
"Private debt today has declined only marginally since the crisis in 2008/09, especially when compared to the greatest financial crisis in US history. In fact, it’s higher now than it was before the Great Depression."
"there is every sign that government debt will continue to grow. The US Treasury just reported that it expects to issue $329 billion in net marketable debt this quarter (July-September), $56 billion more than what they estimated in April."

"Total global debt has almost quadrupled in just 17 years." (281%)
Mr. Keen classifies debt-laden countries into two categories. The first are the Debt Zombies as he calls them, classified as such because a) private debt exceeds 150% of the country’s GDP, and b) credit is 10% or more of GDP for the preceding five years. See if your country is on either of these lists…

First, there are nine Debt Zombies:

US
UK
Denmark
Japan
Ireland
New Zealand
The Netherlands
Portugal
Spain

https://goldsilver.com/blog/this-eco...at-depression/

8/08 Record number of UK cops forced to take second job – Independent
So, where did the money go?
Never worked households are three times as common in inner London ...
https://www.jrf.org.uk/.../never-wor...ommon-inner-lo...
At one time, 25% of London households had nobody employed.
Record 60% of Britons in poverty are in working families – study ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../may/...amilies-study-...
It.s not just England.
In 1 in 5 Families in U.S., No One Works - CNS News
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...s-no-one-works
Our socialist system is crashing because it tries to carry along all the non-producers.
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  #2883  
Old 08-09-2018, 02:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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No people = no economy

The trade war is bound to backfire on almost everybody.
"The German car manufacturer BMW actually produced 1.98 million passenger cars and light trucks built in the United States and were exported from there in the USA – not Germany. If we look at the dollar value of BMW exports from the USA, this accounted for $57.04 billion of U.S. international trade. BMW has actually become the largest manufacturer component that is being produced in the United States – not Germany."
"Are the BMWs exported from the USA German or American trade?"
"Germany is using an old world mercantilist philosophy and assumes that an export-driven economy is THE number one objective."
" We all cannot have trade surpluses. Someone has to have a trade deficit. This is their focus whereby I and looking at the structured design. I am writing that for China to become the Financial Capital of the World, they MUST abandon the Export Model of Germany and shift to the Domestic Model"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...trade-surplus/

The Chinese workforce is declining.
"The country's working age population fell by 2.44 million to 919.54 million in 2013, marking the second consecutive year of decline. ,,,, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous year.
China Must Grow Its Shrinking Workforce to Keep Up - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../china-...rce-to-keep-up
So, China has a rapidly shrinking workforce and a rapidly rising debt load.
China has a bigger problem than the trade war ? a 'mountain of debt' - RN - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
ALL the old models are worthless for a shrinking population. With 95 million Americans not in the labor force, the FED has to print the money that they are NOT earning just to uphold the price of assets that they are NOT buying and, the wealth that they are NOT creating.
The strain on the sovereign bond market will eventually be too much.

8/09 Turkish banks scramble to stave off debt crisis as lira plummets – WSJ
8/08 20% interest rates, crashing capital markets: Sanctions destabilize Turkey – CNBC

That will be a bonfire before long.
8/09 Italy’s economy minister sees lower growth, higher deficit next year – Reuters
Ah yes BUT, the ECB doesn't allow higher deficits.

Here is a good article about the worldwide attempts to uphold asset values after the consuming population has been unable to do so.
https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/ec...tals-july-2018
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  #2884  
Old 08-10-2018, 03:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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China Melting,, stock bubble,,, no love for the EU

The Chinese are recent arrivals at a capitalist system. If a little credit is good, a LOT of credit is better. The cracks in the system are starting to show.
" The number of peer-to-peer lenders shutting down spiked from 28 in May to 218 in July,"
"became a magnet for the misrepresentation and criminality that can be expected in such loosely controlled off-market activities,"
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/08/new...ing/index.html

Armstrong has a big report on China. "This is a report that will be a reference for the decade ahead. There appears to be a problem whereby some countries are blocking the purchase of books on any subject matter. Canada appears to be one of them. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/u...-digital-copy/

The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to block any state from blowing up it's bond market to pay for / generate a war. Nixon was forced to cancel this agreement and, the wars have gone on almost non-stop.
"Jacob Rothschild has voiced concern about the global financial system that was established after WWII."
This system died on August 14 1971 from the effects of the welfare-warfare state.
"According to Rothschild, the lack of a co-ordinated, international response to global challenges was unlikely in an era of populist and protectionist leaders"
No kidding, the CBs controlled by his buddies inflated the system to the breaking point so that a certain group of war-mongers could make enormous profits AND destabilize the whole world.

https://www.rt.com/business/435490-r...der-stability/
"If my sons did not want wars, there would be none."
Gutle Schnaper
Mayer Amschel Rothschild's wife

The CBs printed up about an extra $250 trillion to rescue the valuation of assets. Besides that, there is a lot of capital flight to American markets. Just the same, stock valuations are looking a bit crazy.
"He also shared a chart which he claims is “unfit for a family-friendly publication” that shows how in terms of median price to sales ratio, the S&P 500 is twice as expensive as it was in 2000."
"In a follow-up post, he then reiterates how 2018 is starting to increasingly look like 2000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ket-2018-08-08

"The European Union has spent nearly one trillion dollars to unify the continent by delivering highways and trains into places where there were once gravel paths. In current dollars, that is over eight times the size of the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after World War II. The EU has built airports and bridges, trams and swimming pools. It has repaired castles and medieval churches."
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...0yxTxGSIiPkTA/

8/09 Federal deficit jumps 20 percent after tax cuts, spending bill – The Hill
8/09 ‘Dark cloud’ of trade war hovers over Chinese yuan’s globalization – CNBC

The impossible trinity bites China in the a$$.
8/09 New Hampshire Dems dump Clinton from fundraising dinner – Zero Hedge
Times must be tough. The happy rapist is looking for spare change.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...tions-welcome/
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  #2885  
Old 08-11-2018, 02:19 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Turkey, OZ,,silver,,, headlines

The speed of change is UNREAL. Turkey is collapsing at light-speed.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...throw-erdogan/
8/10 Stocks plunge on geopolitical concerns as Turkish lira implodes – CNBC

The Latest: Erdogan vows Turkish economy will grow strongly | News ...
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/bu...216430550.html
7 hours ago
Whatever Erdogan’s claims about enhancing the place of Islam in Turkish life, restoring Ottoman glory and turning the country into a regional power under his strong and capable leadership, "
About that Ottoman glory,,

OZ is trying to create a special place in world affairs. The OZ government wants the world to be their tax collector.
" The Australian government is violating international law demanding that anyone selling anything on the internet must collect a 10% tax from an Australian and pay it to the Australian government.

The Australian government has shifted a tax-collecting burden to the entire world."
"There is absolutely no foundation in International Law that allows a country to impose obligations upon business in other countries and force them to collect taxes. "
"We are looked at a naked greedy tariff. Simply said, Australia is really becoming the most anti-capitalist country in the West. The Australian dollar has been declining since 2011 and this hunt for taxes continues to expand with the most anti-free market laws in Western civilization"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...rnational-law/

"Collectively, U.S. households are 13.15 trillion dollars in debt, which is the highest level in American history." PARTY ON!
Bankrupt America: Bankruptcy Soars As The Country Grapples With An Unprecedented Debt Problem

Silver & gold have traditionally been used as a store of value,,, not so much as a transactional currency. They are the premier monetary metals. What about other metals as a store of value? Rhodium went for $230 to $10,000 in just a few years. Platinum has been pretty good.
Silver is a monetary metal that has done very well. silver may be the new "thing"
"there was three times the amount of silver above ground in 1980 than there is today. The six billion ounces that existed in 1980 has shrunk to two billion ounces of industry standard 1000 ounces bars."
"In 1980, there were less than 3 billion ounces of gold in all forms above ground throughout the world – the cumulative production of thousands of years. Today, 38 years later, the total amount of above ground gold has doubled, thanks to an explosion of gold mine production.While silver mine production has similarly exploded over the past 38 years, there is much less silver around now. "
" JPMorgan has been able to accomplish in the physical market. It has used the highly depressed prices it largely created to accumulate on the cheap 750 million ounces of physical silver and 20 million ounces of physical gold."
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...heodore+Butler
All the CBs hold gold but, none hold silver. That really doesn't matter.

8/10 Sudden emerging market bloodbath – Talk Markets
Yeah,, and they owe us $trillions. Contagion writ large.
8/10 How automation will affect unfunded liabilities – Forbes
AND
8/10 Streaming companies generate massive revenue per employee – First Macro
They don't generate massive wages so, there will be no money for unfunded liabilities.
8/10 What have we done? Gig economy has become a monster – Vanity Fair
Bezos could pay higher wages but, he doesn't have to. So, Amazonians live in their cars and buy nothing.
Labor shortages have not brought higher wages.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/labor...es-wage-hikes/
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  #2886  
Old 08-12-2018, 05:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Turkey,,,stronger dollar,,,Armstrong,,, China

The sad story of the downfall of Turkey. Erdogan was / is the typical strongman politician with visions of grandeur from the past. He staged an attempted coup to have an excuse to get rid of everyone who disagreed with him.
August, 2016 "35,022 -- Number of people detained "
Jul 8, 2018 - "More than 130,000 people have been sacked"
So, what happens when a State attacks it's own people? They get nervous and lose confidence. What happens to the currency when the people lose confidence?
"A Revolution is brewing not just in Turkey, but also in Iran. More than 100,000 people have taken to the streets chanting death to the dictator. The currency has simply collapsed as it moves into hyperinflation. Once again, as we see this take place, CONFIDENCE in the government is collapsing. This is the key to revolution. Once the people lose CONFIDENCE, then the game changes."
"the more chaos that unfolds, the stronger the US dollar becomes. Capital will ALWAYS flee from wherever the war unfolds. In this case, do not consider that these governments will simply surrender power voluntarily. They will both turn toward Russia for help and portray their political crisis as a CIA plot. That is rather absurd but it will surface anyway. This is standard behavior whenever a currency moves into hyperinflation as the CONFIDENCE in the immediate government collapses. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...or-revolution/
I've travelled twice from London to Turkey by road. It's a nice country but, the leaders have messed it up.

Unfortunately for the rest of the world, every State that weakens it's economy and the confidence sends investment to dollars and gold. As the dollar gets stronger, this weakens more and more currencies.
"The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet and believe it or not, there has been growing a SHORTAGE of dollars"
"They have focused on selling to the USA rather than developing their own domestic consumer economies. China has shifted and understood that important distinction and has indeed turned its focus to developing a domestic economy. Europe has not and it is significant to comprehend that the structure of the European Union is disastrous. "
Where does Armstrong get this BS? China and Europe can NOT develop their domestic economies with 20% unemployment and excruciatingly low wages.

"So far, our computer has been spot on. We are headed toward a monetary reset in the years ahead but to get there, we must experience a STRONG dollar – not a WEAK dollar." "Turkey is a live example of the most vital element of all – CONFIDENCE. When that is lost, this is what produces hyperinflation – NOT the quantity of money."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...of-us-dollars/

(Minsky) "His hypothesis of financial instability argued that a financial crisis is endemic in capitalism because periods of economic prosperity encouraged borrowers and lenders to be progressively reckless. This excess optimism creates financial bubbles and then later busts. Therefore, capitalism is prone to move between periods of financial stability to instability. "
"He agreed also with Galbraith who blamed corporations and never even looked out the wholesale collapse of government debt on a major worldwide scale in 1931. There was NO MENTION of the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931"
"He agreed also with Galbraith who blamed corporations and never even looked out the wholesale collapse of government debt on a major worldwide scale in 1931. There was NO MENTION of the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...minsky-moment/
This is AMAZINGLY STUPID. Without a gold standard (governor) on the printing presses, sovereign debt rises enormously.
"encouraged borrowers and lenders to be progressively reckless."
Periodic currency inflation is the birthright and trademark of bankers, NOT workers. Excessive currency inflation is an attribute of the State.
Budget Deficit Under Trumps Skyrockets To Worst In Six Years
US Spending On Interest Hits All Time High As Budget Deficit Soars To $684 Billion


Hyper-inflation of the sovereign bond market was always a prerequisite to gearing up for war. The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to short-circuit that maneuver. It depended on the honesty of politicians. The NEXT agreement will depend on the blockchain.
Armstrong is wilfully blind to the fact that currency inflation only helps HIS class. All the economic cycles that he writes about are tied to highs and lows in currency inflation. Just as the world recognised the need for the Bretton Woods agreement, it recognises that the blockchain must step in REFERENCED to gold.

8 measures that indicate the stock market is due for a crash. It is VERY difficult to know when investors go to equities JUST to protect their capital and, are not worried about earnings or return.
8-Measures Say A Crash Is Coming, Here's How To Time It | RIA

"Stockman's main warning is that there's no bid underneath this market -- that when perception shifts from greed to fear, the bottom is much farther down than most investors realize. In his words, it's "rigged for implosion"."
VERY interesting chart.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkKdQX3XgAIg0Iv.jpg
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...-epochal-pivot
China and Russia are trying to make it too expensive for America to start a war.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-...syria?ref=home
"With China headed for a record year of corporate-bond defaults, "
"Read: China’s Markets About to Face $80 Billion Bond-Redemption Test"
"8/11 Chinese investors panic over dubious products, authorities quash protests – NYT"
They need to start thinking about confidence, not quashing protests.
8/11 Pakistan is the latest emerging market crisis – CNBC
Pakistan is going to be a MAJOR problem for the foreseeable future.
Water crisis: Why is Pakistan running dry? | Asia| An in-depth look at ...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-crisis-w...dry/a-44110280
Jun 7, 2018 - Pakistan could "run dry" by 2025
Reportedly, OZ is going to get hit by blowback from the currency crisis in Asian markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...alias-doorstep
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  #2887  
Old 08-13-2018, 02:42 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Turkey and European banks.,,, P2P lending meltdown in China

YOU might not care about the currency crisis in Turkey but, you are not an Italian Bank or a Spanish bank,,, or a French bank. Turkey is rapidly melting down. Erdogan bought his popularity by borrowing enormous sums in dollar-denominated loans. The lira has lost 45% so far this year and, the loans are getting VERY expensive to service.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-mediterranean
The banks are required to hold a percentage of reserves. What happens when the value of the currency falls?
8/12 Turkish lira dives 10% at open; Turkish banks now insolvent – Mish

TAE talks about Turkey starting a war with Greece to deflect attention from domestic problems. IMAGINE that. One NATO member going to war with another NATO member.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...k-cold-turkey/
Turkey made a VERY big mistake by shooting down the Russian plane and pilot.
8/12 Turkey meltdown “should be valuable lesson for risk-ignorant investors” – Zero Hedge
The first of MANY lessons. The contagion is moving FAST.
8/13 South African rand flash-crashes 10% in Turkey contagion – Zero Hedge
The end result to all this is; the scenario that Armstrong warmed about the most.
8/13 Geopolitical concerns spike US dollar to highest level of year – FX Empire

Armstrong claims that Turkey is going to abandon the West.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...uropean-banks/
Turkey says that it is going to reform and fix everything so that it can join the eurozone.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/20180...ssion-reforms/

OZ may be considered a Western nation but, they are very dependent on China and Asia.
8/13 58% of Australians worry about their mortgage and becoming homeless – Mish
New Zealand is making an effort to keep hot Chinese money from blowing up their RE market.
8/13 New Zealand to ban foreigners from buying homes – SMH

8/13 Russia says it will ditch U.S. securities amid sanctions – GATA
You almost get the idea that the sanctions are designed to take the dollar out of world trade.

"most at risk in China's economy: online peer-to-peer lenders who collect money from retail investors and dispense small loans to consumers, usually without collateral, putting the loans at risk of a default with zero recovery.

We pointed out that outstanding loans on P2P platforms rose 50% just last year to total Rmb1.49 trillion ($215 billion) - making the size of China’s P2P industry far bigger than in the rest of the world combined "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...2-peer-lenders
NO collateral What could go wrong?

We are winding down towards the end of a super-cycle. Keynes advocated centralized control by the State. This never works and generally destroys the whole system.
8/13 Weekend tweets: Keynesian time bombs, emerging market black swans – Mish
Any time that a State allows unlimited debt creation, it eventually blows up.

Yanis Varoufakis, "The crisis of 1848 brought us the Marxist tradition. The great depression produced both Keynes’s General Theory and Friedman’s monetarism. Over the past decade, the 2008 crash has given rise to a cottage industry of books, articles, documentaries, even films but not, so far, an overarching theory. Now, a compelling new book has arrived which deserves to be at the top of the reading list of anyone interested in the events of 2008 and eager to make sense of the aftermath ."

"Many economies (Ireland and South Korea for example) that were run according to what the global establishment considered “best practice” (government and trade surpluses, light regulation of banks and employers) crashed the moment 90% of global money flows dried up. Why? Because the establishment’s prescription had skilfully left out the crucial truth that the main threat came from the banking system (not the state) and from private (not public) debt."
Armstrong claims the opposite.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/20...-crisis-review

This is an excellent article. Just as Armstrong sees no excesses in private capital, Varoufakis sees no excesses in public debt.
Sorry, but, they are TWINS.
The private banks in Europe loaned TONS of money to Greece even though it had spent 90 years of it's recent history in default. Since the lender is exposed to the most risk, it is incumbent on the lender to calculate the risks. The banks just figured that that the State would rescue them.... which it did. The State has regulatory power and is most at fault if excess credit creation is allowed.

Once again, you can see the power of gold in limiting State created expansion of debt.
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  #2888  
Old 08-14-2018, 03:56 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Gold standard,,, EU debt,, Wolrd monetary base

ALL government is parasitic. Only gold can keep the mega-parasite in check. The world is reluctantly returning to gold. Pox Americana benefited the most from the abandonment of the gold standard and, pox Americana is most reluctant to return to a gold standard.
Jim Willie,
"REQUIREMENTS FOR THE GOLD STANDARD

Eliminate the $21 trillion USGovt deficit
Source 10,000 tonnes Gold to support the currency
Re-industrialize to work down $600 billion trade deficit"
"Back in 2017, US President Trump commissioned a study to verify the status of the US gold reserves. He and Vice President Pence, who led the study, were shocked to learn that the Fort Knox gold had been stolen. Of course, such a discovery never reaches the national news in broadcast or printed form. Thus the long delay in any conceivable effort to set up the $1 trillion infra-structure program promised during his campaign for office. The gears switched to locating and rescuing the stolen gold, with dirty fingers identified for ex-Presidents Papa Bush and Bill Clinton, along with the Wall Street crowd of criminals led by Robert Rubin. Rumors are ripe that the gold has been recovered, which also never reaches the controlled news networks. The eager await confirmation."

"The unique aspect of the current RESET with respect to gold is the many reports of hidden large gold treasure troves. Behind the scenes for the last 20 years or more have been focused battles, complete with murders, downed aircraft, hired high power attorneys, hidden projects, protected leaders, bribery by bankers, captured websites and false identities, confiscated income, and much more. History might someday tell the stories properly, but since such large scale, and so critical to forming new global boundaries, only the victors will recount the stories. Each gold trove is worth in the multiple $trillions for magnitude. In the Fort Knox case, only half $1 trillion. Any usage of multi-$trillion treasure troves brought forward for implemented usage, "
https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/g...-tons-of-gold/
The thought comes to mind that America will discover a LONG hidden treasure trove of gold. Will it be the gold manufactured by John Bedini's process. Reportedly, Cejka said that the process did work but, it wasn't time yet to be manufacturing gold.
Ref: Part 20, The Cjeka Files.
Petrovoltaics
Jim Willie also had an interesting claim about hidden flash drives.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...bytes-of-data/
8/13 More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU – Guardian
Yeah, the City of London is buying votes to stop Brexit.
8/13 Lira crisis: action by Turkey’s central bank fails to quell contagion fears – Guardian
8/13 In America, wage growth entirely wiped out by inflation – Chicago Tribune


Armstrong said that the Eurozone project was doomed from the start because they didn't have a common debt market.
“The situation can’t be resolved, and it is going to explode,” Claudio Borghi told Reuters after Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bond yields rose in the wake of the financial turmoil in Turkish markets. "
“Either the ECB offers a guarantee or the euro will be dismantled,” said Borghi, who is president of the lower house budget committee.

The extra yield that investors demand for holding Italian bonds over top-rated German ones rose to its highest since late May earlier on Monday, briefly rising above 280 basis points before easing back to around 275. "
No kidding!! What a surprise
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1KY1N2

Here is a good article on the World Monetary Base.
"The first effect to watch out for is a contraction in international trade as a consequence of the US dollar shortage. Every time in the past that there has been a contraction in the WMB, six or so months later there has been a steep decline in the volume of world trade (at least since 1994"
https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/th...ssion-of-2019/
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  #2889  
Old 08-14-2018, 02:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Turkish contagion,,, ECB & QE

Turkey is the problem du jour. If it's currency drops 45% in value, all those dollar-denominated loans become VERY expensive to service. This is what Armstrong warned about. This is what is happening. Investors get nervous and, contagion spreads.
8/14 Goldman warns of US companies’ emerging market exposure – CNBC
8/14 What happens in Turkey won’t stay in Turkey; this crisis is different – CNBC
8/14 Three things are deadly for emerging markets, and Turkey might be the trigger – ZH

Kunstler,,,, just read it.
Close Up and Long Shot - Kunstler
Remember that, as a currency falls, the State has to raise interest rates to attract / retain investors.
8/14 Argentina to increase benchmark interest rate to 45 pct – Reuters

8/14 22-year-old crypto millionaire scammed out of 5,500 bitcoins – Mashable
8/14 Wave of crypto mining at colleges, businesses raising hacking concerns – CNBC

CONCERN, you say. Crypto coins have no future. 10% have already been stolen. Quantum computers will make it worse.
8/14 Bugs in mobile credit card readers could leave buyers exposed – Wired
You can go cashless,,,, I’ll keep my paper.
8/13 Gold clinging to $1,200 for dear life as fiat crisis goes global – Silver Doctors
8/13 Why rising inflation won’t help gold prices this time – SafeHaven

That which doesn't go up,,,, doesn't go down either.

"The promise that a single currency would produce a single interest rate has been a complete failure.

This is what I have been warning about. Ten years of QE has FAILED to stimulate the economy of Europe, it has only made governments addicted to the ECB buying their debt at absurd low levels in rate. The Eurozone will indeed break apart once QE stops for rates will soar and tensions will then rise among the 28 member states for the promise of a single currency would produce a single interest rate pointing to the USA as their proof was a lie. The USA federal debt had a single rate because it was a single authority issuing the debt, not 28 separate states."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...e-of-eurozone/
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  #2890  
Old 08-15-2018, 04:01 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Space Force,,,hari kari in Turkey

Twitter's 13 Funniest Responses To Trump's Ridiculous 'Space Force ...
Trump Has Ordered A "Space Force" And The Jokes Are Practically...
Pentagon Had Spurned U.S. Space Force, Prompting Trump's Decree

AND,
"data used to prepare the year-*end financial statements were unreliable and lacked an adequate audit trail. The report indicates that just 170 transactions accounted for $2.1 trillion in year-end unsupported adjustments. No information is given about these 170 transactions. "
"In addition many thousands of transactions with unsubstantiated adjustments were, according to the report, removed by the Army. There is no explanation concerning why they were removed nor their magnitude.”
https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/...-the-treasury/
You paid for a Space Force. You might as well get to see it.

14 Aug, https://www.rt.com/business/435897-a...ed-attack-fbi/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1KY0Y5
" More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held by the global financial system."
"Turkey will almost certainly be the largest EM default of all time, should it resort to capital controls as your analyst expects, but it could also be the largest bankruptcy of all time given the difficulty of its creditors in recovering any assets. "
"Strong form capital controls produce a de facto debt moratorium, and very rapidly investors realize just how little their credit assets are worth. A de jure debt moratorium at the outbreak of The Great War in 1914 bankrupted almost the entire European banking system -"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...fault-all-time
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  #2891  
Old 08-15-2018, 04:06 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Had to break it up for some reason

Here is the chart for the Argentine peso, https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...2018-08-13.png
"and this from a country that over the past 67 years, has defaulted six times on its foreign currency debts: in 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2001, and its “selective default” in 2014. "
"instead of trying to address the problem, or beg the IMF for a bailout, the Turkish government has heaped scorn on the West. In return, the Turkish lira plunged another 8% against the dollar on Monday, to 7.04 lira to the dollar.
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  #2892  
Old 08-15-2018, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Still wouldn't post

"
Seen the other way around, as the chart below shows, the value of 1 lira has now dropped to 14.4 US cents, from 25 cents just four months ago,"
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/13/pr...-come-unglued/
Maybe Erdogan shouldn't have shot down the Russian plane and pilot a few months ago. He says that he doesn't need the West. He is going to get new friends.
The BRICs are getting whacked one by one.
8/14 Indian rupee drops to all-time low against dollar as Turkish crisis hits EMs – Ind
Corporate bonds in Emerging Markets look worse that public debt.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb...ies#gs.TepldLk
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  #2893  
Old 08-15-2018, 02:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Contagion and the hunt for taxes

"They" wanted an integrated worldwide financial system. As a bonus, "they" got a worldwide platform for CONTAGION.
They wanted unlimited cross-border capital flows. In good times, capital flows to where it gets the best return. In bad times, capital flows to the State that promises the most stability. The States with the best return are usually very risky places to invest. As confidence shifts, capital shifts. The attitude shifts from return ON capital to return OF capital.
Many investors would rather buy stocks at nosebleed valuations than hold bonds... both sovereign and private.
8/15 Think Turkey, Argentine sovereign debt is bad? Look at companies – Bloomberg

Our world situation; the mega-parasite writes the laws. What can you expect?
"No matter what country we look at, governments are going broke. Consequently, they are all beginning to turn against their people in the hunt for money. Some governments have just completely crossed the line between a free society and moved directly into the classification of authoritarianism. Australia has just been hunting its own citizens and demonizing the rich. They even coined the phrase: “Cash of for Criminals!”
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...out-australia/

"to to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth. The more we move to try to save the collapse of socialism, it is like Erdogan refusing to accept responsibility for the collapse of the Turkish lira."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...inst-the-west/

The German Government too is looking for every Euro that it can squeeze out of some producer.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ests-for-cash/
Erdogan is a nut-case psychopath. He will never give up his megalomaniac dreams of a new Ottoman Empire. The IMF won't give Turkey money unless he gives up control. He approached Qatar and, was turned down. Turkey can no longer service it's external debt.

Italy came out and said that QE had to continue "to infinity and, beyond"
QE is necessary for the non-producers. The producers actually create something and, have an income. The overlay of the EU bureaucracy on top of the existing state bureaucracy reduced the GDP of Italy (for instance) by 20%.
"The Euro has continued to fall dropping at the time of this post to 11343. The bottom of this channel lies at the 11315 area and behind the curtain, our phone is in meltdown mode. After’s Italy warning that the ECB has to keep QE going or the entire bond market will collapse forcing the breakup of the EU has finally made many of the dollar-haters start to realize that indeed Draghi has destroyed the European economy and bond market."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...pe-in-reality/
Keep in mind that super Mario Draghi is from Goldman Sachs. I suspect that he believed that; once he got hold of the keys to the printing press, everything would be fine.
He tried to rescue all his banking buddies. When the bond market collapses, he is going to be very unpopular.

8/15 Household debt hits record high $13.29 trillion, led by mortgages, student loans – TM
8/15 Forget about Turkey. Asia is the elephant in the room – Talk Markets

The Asian leaders aren't near as stupid as Erdogan.
8/15 China banks bad loans surge most on record amid deleveraging – Bloomberg
The Chinese seem to gamble without conscience. The shrinkage in working population and, the shrinkage in world markets was never figured into the equation.
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  #2894  
Old Yesterday, 03:03 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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ECB, up against the wall,,,Contagion, Lira to the Yuan

The new Italian government came out and said that the EU would crash if it stopped QE. Everybody already knew that this was true but, they ignored it. After the pronouncement, things started to fall apart.
"The Euro has fallen to 113006. Once again, the dangerous game here is when we cross that line of demarcation between CONFIDENCE in government and the REALIZATION that there is nobody in control but the free markets. Once all the talk and all the promises are no longer considered to be worth listening to, that is when the monetary crisis begins to really shake the foundations. We are moving closer to that point of no return."
"The ECB has had the Eurozone on life-support. They cannot pull the plug without the collapse of the Euro and with that, lies the jobs in Brussels. This is why they will become draconian and attempt to outlaw selling the Euro all to maintain their jobs. They will lose. The free markets ALWAYS win!."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ng-to-dollars/
The blob State in Brussels will eventually take some kind of action to preserve their cushy jobs. This future action will be EXACTLY the wrong thing.

The Central Bank of Turkey jumped in to save the currency. This will be short-term at best. Also, Quatar gave them a $15 billion loan,,, more short-term.
"Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place."
As soon as Qatar comes to this same conclusion, the money will stop.

"Erdogan has threatened to walk into the arms of Russia and Erdogan is simply not someone the West should trust. I have been warning that NATO should absolutely withdraw from Turkey. Until the people overthrow this guy, he should be distanced RIGHT NOW!!!!! He has been against Greece and Israeli. He is by no means of a particular side. He has been fixed on his vision of restoring the Ottoman Empire and he has ruined the economy of Turkey. Erdogan is far more dangerous than any other world leader "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...me-your-enemy/

State bureaucrats will always tell the State what the State wants to hear. More and more states are following what Armstrong recommends. If he recommends dumping turkey ASAP, many will listen and act. He brings a historical clarity to everything.
99.8% of Turkey is muslim and, Erdogan is appealing to religious fundamentalists for support. Theocracies never work out.
"It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...sis-is-turkey/
From a historical point of view, Turkey is on the most frequently travelled road to disintegration. Attaturk had tried to modernise Turkey so that it would continue to be a secular State and not a religious State. The Turkish military assumed the role of kicking out leaders who were to religious. Up to this point, they had done pretty well. Not this time. Erdogan beat them.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...s-yet-to-come/
Turkey does NOT have a domestic arms industry. They have to import everything.

Armstrong, "ANSWER: We have been warning that the first to crack would be emerging markets and Turkey was the focal point."
"This is SERIOUS. People have to understand that this is NOT my personal belief, opinion, or anything else based upon some predetermined conclusion. People attack me personally because they cannot defend a system that NOBODY in their right mind would have created from scratch."
"The countries who want help are generally the peripheral not the majors for this is too political. Hence, we just have to crash and burn and then puck up the burning embers."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...pon-the-world/

Not so strangely, the crisis in Turkey is bring down other emerging markets including CHINA.
Offshore Yuan, https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...15_7-00-52.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ans-collapsing
Comments; "

All those graphs just indicate that EM currencies across the board are collapsing in "exchange value" against the USD. We are going to see national defaults on dollar denominated debt, most of it owned by the TBTF multinational banks including the USA big 5. This will lead to a freeze up in the credit markets far more acute than 2008. The Fed and the ECB will print at warp drive 9 to reverse it as they did in 2008-9 which will result in hyperinflation this time and the collapse in purchasing power of all fiat including the USD and the euro.
This will set the stage of the Cabal's Hunger Games attempted reset, as the world cries out in pain for the institutions that planned and executed the collapse to save them. BTW, China and Russia have vast amounts of unrecognized gold in storage. They have been expecting this for at least a decade and prepping. China will let their bubble pop and deflate to some extent and then step in with fractional gold backing. Same with Russia though they are less debt ridden than Chinese corporations."

The Yellow Peril has a plan, https://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-pl...-stock-market/
All the EM debt will blow, https://dailyreckoning.com/you-shoul...t-debt-bubble/
8/16 90% of cryptocurrency market facing ‘extinction-level event’: Xapo president – Yahoo
8/16 The ‘gig economy’ is the new term for serfdom – Truthdig
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