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  #2881  
Old 08-07-2018, 02:47 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fantasy employment,,, fantasy bonds

"It is the same with money. The prevailing paradigm—the dollar-centric view—is akin to the Medieval geocentric view. This view is characterized by two premises. One, the dollar is money. And two, the value of money is not defined in terms of gold (which is believed to be just a commodity like oil or wheat). The value of money is defined as the inverse of the general price level. This means: what you can buy is intrinsic to the currency."
"They accept that what you can buy is a property of the currency itself, missing that in Venezuela you can’t buy anything anymore, because of the socialist dictatorship.

Everyone knows that the dollar loses value. The Federal Reserve’s target is to make the dollar lose 2 percent per annum. The dollar goes down, and this is not a bug but a feature."

"Being money, the dollar is therefore the unit of account. However, this contradicts the fact that the dollar goes down. A unit has to be stable, to be useful to measure anything. So how do people reconcile this contradiction? The dollar is the unit of account, but the dollar is constantly shrinking—i.e. it fails as a unit."
"And they use this consumer price index to define the value of money. They claim to measure the purchasing power of money. Remember that prices are measured in money. So measuring money in terms of prices is circular reasoning."
"Grant Williams said that gold is the only commodity that does not go no bid. In times of crisis, ordinary things go no bid. "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-5-august-2018

Armstrong, "The U.S. dollar has been climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s."
I do not understand how he can factor in this "low unemployment"

Side note, "Since the neoliberal 90s, America has been steadily thirdworldized. Over 21% of workers wanting jobs can’t find them.

Millions of industrial and other high-pay jobs were offshored to low-wage countries. Ones remaining are mostly rotten temp or part-time, low pay/poor or no benefit service ones with no futures – paying poverty or sub-poverty wages.
The Friday-reported 3.9% unemployment rate reflects pure fantasy."
"Protracted main street depression conditions persist for most working-age Americans – reflected by real unemployment at 21.5%, along with most available jobs paying poverty or sub-poverty wages"
https://stephenlendman.org/2018/08/f...ty-in-america/

Continuing with Armstrong. Does his embrace of BS employment statistics invalidate his conclusions?
"We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates explode exponentially. "
"In Japan, there to they have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? "
"Trump has publicly been criticizing the dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar "
"So hang on to your hat. The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from 1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...llar-strength/

Armstrong, "I have stated bluntly that the forecasts made at Davos and the Bilderberg Meetings are ALWAYS wrong! Even the BBC asked why do economists get it so wrong? These meetings are often used as proof of some world order that creates everything intentionally be it a boom or a bust. I have stated countless times that if there really was some giant conspiracy that controlled the world, they would NEVER call me in for help or even explanations. The far more scary reality is the powers that be are clueless and are ruling by the seat of their pants."
"It just seems as if those in power are often the people who have little experience in the real world and could not make it there so they gravitate toward government and power. "

"I have worked around the world. Politicians are the same everywhere. They will act ONLY out of their own self-interest."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...r-hate-speech/

"John Williams at Shadowstats.com reckons that the real unemployment rate in the US is 21.4%. Unimpressed by the US State’s insane assumption that all those no longer able to claim unemployment welfare “have found a job”, Mr Williams provides further fuel for my longstanding thesis that no real recovery can occur – if more and more mass-market consumers work fewer and fewer hours for less and less money or have no job at all – because their personal disposable income is disappearing out of sight."
"eorge Osborne immediately gave notice that he’d be switching from the higher RPI measure of inflation (then at 5.2%) to the lower CPI at 4.5%. That doesn’t sound like much, but one has to remember two things: first, that is a 14% difference in levels that makes inflation look much lower; and second, over time the different impression given is huge: from 1996 to 2011, under the RPI system prices rose 53.6%….but using the CPI method, it only came to 35.6%.

Significantly, the CPI system excludes financial services costs and government charges to the consumer. Just fancy that."
"But “a job” to most people over the last half century meant 38-40 hours a week with a month’s notice. When analysed, these new jobs were averaging 20 hours a week, often at unsocial hours and frequently on no contracts at all. They typically demand, for example, that the “employee” be ready to come into the workplace without notice"
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2018/08...-dictatorship/

8/07 Fears of a ‘car-crash Brexit’ make life difficult for Mark Carney – Guardian

"Before Keynes there were macro considerations, which were firmly grounded in human action, the personal preferences and choices exercised by individuals in the context of their own earnings and profits. In order to give a role to the state, Keynes had to get away from human action and devise a positive management role for central planners. "
A centrally managed and planed economy is of great appeal to government wonks because it guarantees them a job niche regardless of abilities. It is also appealing to war-mongers and bankers and the corporatocracy. They buy politicians and get whatever wars and monopolies they want. GOV sells bonds to pay for all the hanger-ons.
51% of Americans receive a check from GOV.
History shows that taxes are raised to pay for all of this until, there is a revolution or State bankruptcy. The numbers suggest that the revolutions will start in Southern Europe. The Blob State is bankrupting the rest of the workers.
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  #2882  
Old 08-08-2018, 04:44 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Italain bonds,,,wealth gap,,,big zombies,,, nobody working

The claim is made that taxes will be raised to pay for pensions, NO MATTER how high the taxes go.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/pensi...alth-mortgage/
"Markets fear the nation may be headed for a collision course with European Union partners as the two parties in Italy’s ruling coalition pledge to implement bold spending plans next year."
" European Central Bank, which is due to cut its bond-buying program to 15 billion euros a month in October and then end purchases in December. "
Ah yes. The Italian GOV is going to spend LOTS of money. The ECB is going to stop buying Italian sovereign bonds.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UCAs9C6PiHJUw/

"The top 1% of Americans took home more than 22% of all income in 2015, the study found. That’s the highest share since a peak of 23.9% just before the Great Depression in 1928. "
"In nine states in the U.S., the top 1% represents more than half of all income growth."
"New York’s Alexa Ocasio-Cortez winning an upset victory in June’s Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district running on a platform of Medicare for all and reining in Wall Street. She also supports the idea of a government program guaranteeing paid jobs for anybody who wants one. "
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we...ion-2018-07-19
Who wants a job when the dole pays better AND does not cut into your free time?

Here is a graph showing a 15 year period of debt unwind after the 1930 crash. It shows a MUCH smaller unwind after the 2009 crash. That is how much further we are going to fall.
https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/g...323309-pix.png
"Private debt today has declined only marginally since the crisis in 2008/09, especially when compared to the greatest financial crisis in US history. In fact, it’s higher now than it was before the Great Depression."
"there is every sign that government debt will continue to grow. The US Treasury just reported that it expects to issue $329 billion in net marketable debt this quarter (July-September), $56 billion more than what they estimated in April."

"Total global debt has almost quadrupled in just 17 years." (281%)
Mr. Keen classifies debt-laden countries into two categories. The first are the Debt Zombies as he calls them, classified as such because a) private debt exceeds 150% of the country’s GDP, and b) credit is 10% or more of GDP for the preceding five years. See if your country is on either of these lists…

First, there are nine Debt Zombies:

US
UK
Denmark
Japan
Ireland
New Zealand
The Netherlands
Portugal
Spain

https://goldsilver.com/blog/this-eco...at-depression/

8/08 Record number of UK cops forced to take second job – Independent
So, where did the money go?
Never worked households are three times as common in inner London ...
https://www.jrf.org.uk/.../never-wor...ommon-inner-lo...
At one time, 25% of London households had nobody employed.
Record 60% of Britons in poverty are in working families – study ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../may/...amilies-study-...
It.s not just England.
In 1 in 5 Families in U.S., No One Works - CNS News
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article...s-no-one-works
Our socialist system is crashing because it tries to carry along all the non-producers.
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  #2883  
Old 08-09-2018, 02:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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No people = no economy

The trade war is bound to backfire on almost everybody.
"The German car manufacturer BMW actually produced 1.98 million passenger cars and light trucks built in the United States and were exported from there in the USA – not Germany. If we look at the dollar value of BMW exports from the USA, this accounted for $57.04 billion of U.S. international trade. BMW has actually become the largest manufacturer component that is being produced in the United States – not Germany."
"Are the BMWs exported from the USA German or American trade?"
"Germany is using an old world mercantilist philosophy and assumes that an export-driven economy is THE number one objective."
" We all cannot have trade surpluses. Someone has to have a trade deficit. This is their focus whereby I and looking at the structured design. I am writing that for China to become the Financial Capital of the World, they MUST abandon the Export Model of Germany and shift to the Domestic Model"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...trade-surplus/

The Chinese workforce is declining.
"The country's working age population fell by 2.44 million to 919.54 million in 2013, marking the second consecutive year of decline. ,,,, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous year.
China Must Grow Its Shrinking Workforce to Keep Up - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../china-...rce-to-keep-up
So, China has a rapidly shrinking workforce and a rapidly rising debt load.
China has a bigger problem than the trade war ? a 'mountain of debt' - RN - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
ALL the old models are worthless for a shrinking population. With 95 million Americans not in the labor force, the FED has to print the money that they are NOT earning just to uphold the price of assets that they are NOT buying and, the wealth that they are NOT creating.
The strain on the sovereign bond market will eventually be too much.

8/09 Turkish banks scramble to stave off debt crisis as lira plummets – WSJ
8/08 20% interest rates, crashing capital markets: Sanctions destabilize Turkey – CNBC

That will be a bonfire before long.
8/09 Italy’s economy minister sees lower growth, higher deficit next year – Reuters
Ah yes BUT, the ECB doesn't allow higher deficits.

Here is a good article about the worldwide attempts to uphold asset values after the consuming population has been unable to do so.
https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/ec...tals-july-2018
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  #2884  
Old 08-10-2018, 03:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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China Melting,, stock bubble,,, no love for the EU

The Chinese are recent arrivals at a capitalist system. If a little credit is good, a LOT of credit is better. The cracks in the system are starting to show.
" The number of peer-to-peer lenders shutting down spiked from 28 in May to 218 in July,"
"became a magnet for the misrepresentation and criminality that can be expected in such loosely controlled off-market activities,"
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/08/new...ing/index.html

Armstrong has a big report on China. "This is a report that will be a reference for the decade ahead. There appears to be a problem whereby some countries are blocking the purchase of books on any subject matter. Canada appears to be one of them. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/u...-digital-copy/

The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to block any state from blowing up it's bond market to pay for / generate a war. Nixon was forced to cancel this agreement and, the wars have gone on almost non-stop.
"Jacob Rothschild has voiced concern about the global financial system that was established after WWII."
This system died on August 14 1971 from the effects of the welfare-warfare state.
"According to Rothschild, the lack of a co-ordinated, international response to global challenges was unlikely in an era of populist and protectionist leaders"
No kidding, the CBs controlled by his buddies inflated the system to the breaking point so that a certain group of war-mongers could make enormous profits AND destabilize the whole world.

https://www.rt.com/business/435490-r...der-stability/
"If my sons did not want wars, there would be none."
Gutle Schnaper
Mayer Amschel Rothschild's wife

The CBs printed up about an extra $250 trillion to rescue the valuation of assets. Besides that, there is a lot of capital flight to American markets. Just the same, stock valuations are looking a bit crazy.
"He also shared a chart which he claims is “unfit for a family-friendly publication” that shows how in terms of median price to sales ratio, the S&P 500 is twice as expensive as it was in 2000."
"In a follow-up post, he then reiterates how 2018 is starting to increasingly look like 2000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ket-2018-08-08

"The European Union has spent nearly one trillion dollars to unify the continent by delivering highways and trains into places where there were once gravel paths. In current dollars, that is over eight times the size of the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after World War II. The EU has built airports and bridges, trams and swimming pools. It has repaired castles and medieval churches."
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...0yxTxGSIiPkTA/

8/09 Federal deficit jumps 20 percent after tax cuts, spending bill – The Hill
8/09 ‘Dark cloud’ of trade war hovers over Chinese yuan’s globalization – CNBC

The impossible trinity bites China in the a$$.
8/09 New Hampshire Dems dump Clinton from fundraising dinner – Zero Hedge
Times must be tough. The happy rapist is looking for spare change.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...tions-welcome/
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  #2885  
Old 08-11-2018, 02:19 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Turkey, OZ,,silver,,, headlines

The speed of change is UNREAL. Turkey is collapsing at light-speed.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...throw-erdogan/
8/10 Stocks plunge on geopolitical concerns as Turkish lira implodes – CNBC

The Latest: Erdogan vows Turkish economy will grow strongly | News ...
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/bu...216430550.html
7 hours ago
Whatever Erdogan’s claims about enhancing the place of Islam in Turkish life, restoring Ottoman glory and turning the country into a regional power under his strong and capable leadership, "
About that Ottoman glory,,

OZ is trying to create a special place in world affairs. The OZ government wants the world to be their tax collector.
" The Australian government is violating international law demanding that anyone selling anything on the internet must collect a 10% tax from an Australian and pay it to the Australian government.

The Australian government has shifted a tax-collecting burden to the entire world."
"There is absolutely no foundation in International Law that allows a country to impose obligations upon business in other countries and force them to collect taxes. "
"We are looked at a naked greedy tariff. Simply said, Australia is really becoming the most anti-capitalist country in the West. The Australian dollar has been declining since 2011 and this hunt for taxes continues to expand with the most anti-free market laws in Western civilization"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...rnational-law/

"Collectively, U.S. households are 13.15 trillion dollars in debt, which is the highest level in American history." PARTY ON!
Bankrupt America: Bankruptcy Soars As The Country Grapples With An Unprecedented Debt Problem

Silver & gold have traditionally been used as a store of value,,, not so much as a transactional currency. They are the premier monetary metals. What about other metals as a store of value? Rhodium went for $230 to $10,000 in just a few years. Platinum has been pretty good.
Silver is a monetary metal that has done very well. silver may be the new "thing"
"there was three times the amount of silver above ground in 1980 than there is today. The six billion ounces that existed in 1980 has shrunk to two billion ounces of industry standard 1000 ounces bars."
"In 1980, there were less than 3 billion ounces of gold in all forms above ground throughout the world – the cumulative production of thousands of years. Today, 38 years later, the total amount of above ground gold has doubled, thanks to an explosion of gold mine production.While silver mine production has similarly exploded over the past 38 years, there is much less silver around now. "
" JPMorgan has been able to accomplish in the physical market. It has used the highly depressed prices it largely created to accumulate on the cheap 750 million ounces of physical silver and 20 million ounces of physical gold."
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...heodore+Butler
All the CBs hold gold but, none hold silver. That really doesn't matter.

8/10 Sudden emerging market bloodbath – Talk Markets
Yeah,, and they owe us $trillions. Contagion writ large.
8/10 How automation will affect unfunded liabilities – Forbes
AND
8/10 Streaming companies generate massive revenue per employee – First Macro
They don't generate massive wages so, there will be no money for unfunded liabilities.
8/10 What have we done? Gig economy has become a monster – Vanity Fair
Bezos could pay higher wages but, he doesn't have to. So, Amazonians live in their cars and buy nothing.
Labor shortages have not brought higher wages.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/labor...es-wage-hikes/
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  #2886  
Old 08-12-2018, 05:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Turkey,,,stronger dollar,,,Armstrong,,, China

The sad story of the downfall of Turkey. Erdogan was / is the typical strongman politician with visions of grandeur from the past. He staged an attempted coup to have an excuse to get rid of everyone who disagreed with him.
August, 2016 "35,022 -- Number of people detained "
Jul 8, 2018 - "More than 130,000 people have been sacked"
So, what happens when a State attacks it's own people? They get nervous and lose confidence. What happens to the currency when the people lose confidence?
"A Revolution is brewing not just in Turkey, but also in Iran. More than 100,000 people have taken to the streets chanting death to the dictator. The currency has simply collapsed as it moves into hyperinflation. Once again, as we see this take place, CONFIDENCE in the government is collapsing. This is the key to revolution. Once the people lose CONFIDENCE, then the game changes."
"the more chaos that unfolds, the stronger the US dollar becomes. Capital will ALWAYS flee from wherever the war unfolds. In this case, do not consider that these governments will simply surrender power voluntarily. They will both turn toward Russia for help and portray their political crisis as a CIA plot. That is rather absurd but it will surface anyway. This is standard behavior whenever a currency moves into hyperinflation as the CONFIDENCE in the immediate government collapses. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...or-revolution/
I've travelled twice from London to Turkey by road. It's a nice country but, the leaders have messed it up.

Unfortunately for the rest of the world, every State that weakens it's economy and the confidence sends investment to dollars and gold. As the dollar gets stronger, this weakens more and more currencies.
"The Fed has been shrinking its balance sheet and believe it or not, there has been growing a SHORTAGE of dollars"
"They have focused on selling to the USA rather than developing their own domestic consumer economies. China has shifted and understood that important distinction and has indeed turned its focus to developing a domestic economy. Europe has not and it is significant to comprehend that the structure of the European Union is disastrous. "
Where does Armstrong get this BS? China and Europe can NOT develop their domestic economies with 20% unemployment and excruciatingly low wages.

"So far, our computer has been spot on. We are headed toward a monetary reset in the years ahead but to get there, we must experience a STRONG dollar – not a WEAK dollar." "Turkey is a live example of the most vital element of all – CONFIDENCE. When that is lost, this is what produces hyperinflation – NOT the quantity of money."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...of-us-dollars/

(Minsky) "His hypothesis of financial instability argued that a financial crisis is endemic in capitalism because periods of economic prosperity encouraged borrowers and lenders to be progressively reckless. This excess optimism creates financial bubbles and then later busts. Therefore, capitalism is prone to move between periods of financial stability to instability. "
"He agreed also with Galbraith who blamed corporations and never even looked out the wholesale collapse of government debt on a major worldwide scale in 1931. There was NO MENTION of the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931"
"He agreed also with Galbraith who blamed corporations and never even looked out the wholesale collapse of government debt on a major worldwide scale in 1931. There was NO MENTION of the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...minsky-moment/
This is AMAZINGLY STUPID. Without a gold standard (governor) on the printing presses, sovereign debt rises enormously.
"encouraged borrowers and lenders to be progressively reckless."
Periodic currency inflation is the birthright and trademark of bankers, NOT workers. Excessive currency inflation is an attribute of the State.
Budget Deficit Under Trumps Skyrockets To Worst In Six Years
US Spending On Interest Hits All Time High As Budget Deficit Soars To $684 Billion


Hyper-inflation of the sovereign bond market was always a prerequisite to gearing up for war. The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to short-circuit that maneuver. It depended on the honesty of politicians. The NEXT agreement will depend on the blockchain.
Armstrong is wilfully blind to the fact that currency inflation only helps HIS class. All the economic cycles that he writes about are tied to highs and lows in currency inflation. Just as the world recognised the need for the Bretton Woods agreement, it recognises that the blockchain must step in REFERENCED to gold.

8 measures that indicate the stock market is due for a crash. It is VERY difficult to know when investors go to equities JUST to protect their capital and, are not worried about earnings or return.
8-Measures Say A Crash Is Coming, Here's How To Time It | RIA

"Stockman's main warning is that there's no bid underneath this market -- that when perception shifts from greed to fear, the bottom is much farther down than most investors realize. In his words, it's "rigged for implosion"."
VERY interesting chart.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkKdQX3XgAIg0Iv.jpg
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...-epochal-pivot
China and Russia are trying to make it too expensive for America to start a war.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-...syria?ref=home
"With China headed for a record year of corporate-bond defaults, "
"Read: China’s Markets About to Face $80 Billion Bond-Redemption Test"
"8/11 Chinese investors panic over dubious products, authorities quash protests – NYT"
They need to start thinking about confidence, not quashing protests.
8/11 Pakistan is the latest emerging market crisis – CNBC
Pakistan is going to be a MAJOR problem for the foreseeable future.
Water crisis: Why is Pakistan running dry? | Asia| An in-depth look at ...
https://www.dw.com/en/water-crisis-w...dry/a-44110280
Jun 7, 2018 - Pakistan could "run dry" by 2025
Reportedly, OZ is going to get hit by blowback from the currency crisis in Asian markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...alias-doorstep
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  #2887  
Old 08-13-2018, 02:42 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Turkey and European banks.,,, P2P lending meltdown in China

YOU might not care about the currency crisis in Turkey but, you are not an Italian Bank or a Spanish bank,,, or a French bank. Turkey is rapidly melting down. Erdogan bought his popularity by borrowing enormous sums in dollar-denominated loans. The lira has lost 45% so far this year and, the loans are getting VERY expensive to service.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-mediterranean
The banks are required to hold a percentage of reserves. What happens when the value of the currency falls?
8/12 Turkish lira dives 10% at open; Turkish banks now insolvent – Mish

TAE talks about Turkey starting a war with Greece to deflect attention from domestic problems. IMAGINE that. One NATO member going to war with another NATO member.
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...k-cold-turkey/
Turkey made a VERY big mistake by shooting down the Russian plane and pilot.
8/12 Turkey meltdown “should be valuable lesson for risk-ignorant investors” – Zero Hedge
The first of MANY lessons. The contagion is moving FAST.
8/13 South African rand flash-crashes 10% in Turkey contagion – Zero Hedge
The end result to all this is; the scenario that Armstrong warmed about the most.
8/13 Geopolitical concerns spike US dollar to highest level of year – FX Empire

Armstrong claims that Turkey is going to abandon the West.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...uropean-banks/
Turkey says that it is going to reform and fix everything so that it can join the eurozone.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/20180...ssion-reforms/

OZ may be considered a Western nation but, they are very dependent on China and Asia.
8/13 58% of Australians worry about their mortgage and becoming homeless – Mish
New Zealand is making an effort to keep hot Chinese money from blowing up their RE market.
8/13 New Zealand to ban foreigners from buying homes – SMH

8/13 Russia says it will ditch U.S. securities amid sanctions – GATA
You almost get the idea that the sanctions are designed to take the dollar out of world trade.

"most at risk in China's economy: online peer-to-peer lenders who collect money from retail investors and dispense small loans to consumers, usually without collateral, putting the loans at risk of a default with zero recovery.

We pointed out that outstanding loans on P2P platforms rose 50% just last year to total Rmb1.49 trillion ($215 billion) - making the size of China’s P2P industry far bigger than in the rest of the world combined "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...2-peer-lenders
NO collateral What could go wrong?

We are winding down towards the end of a super-cycle. Keynes advocated centralized control by the State. This never works and generally destroys the whole system.
8/13 Weekend tweets: Keynesian time bombs, emerging market black swans – Mish
Any time that a State allows unlimited debt creation, it eventually blows up.

Yanis Varoufakis, "The crisis of 1848 brought us the Marxist tradition. The great depression produced both Keynes’s General Theory and Friedman’s monetarism. Over the past decade, the 2008 crash has given rise to a cottage industry of books, articles, documentaries, even films but not, so far, an overarching theory. Now, a compelling new book has arrived which deserves to be at the top of the reading list of anyone interested in the events of 2008 and eager to make sense of the aftermath ."

"Many economies (Ireland and South Korea for example) that were run according to what the global establishment considered “best practice” (government and trade surpluses, light regulation of banks and employers) crashed the moment 90% of global money flows dried up. Why? Because the establishment’s prescription had skilfully left out the crucial truth that the main threat came from the banking system (not the state) and from private (not public) debt."
Armstrong claims the opposite.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/20...-crisis-review

This is an excellent article. Just as Armstrong sees no excesses in private capital, Varoufakis sees no excesses in public debt.
Sorry, but, they are TWINS.
The private banks in Europe loaned TONS of money to Greece even though it had spent 90 years of it's recent history in default. Since the lender is exposed to the most risk, it is incumbent on the lender to calculate the risks. The banks just figured that that the State would rescue them.... which it did. The State has regulatory power and is most at fault if excess credit creation is allowed.

Once again, you can see the power of gold in limiting State created expansion of debt.
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  #2888  
Old 08-14-2018, 03:56 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Gold standard,,, EU debt,, Wolrd monetary base

ALL government is parasitic. Only gold can keep the mega-parasite in check. The world is reluctantly returning to gold. Pox Americana benefited the most from the abandonment of the gold standard and, pox Americana is most reluctant to return to a gold standard.
Jim Willie,
"REQUIREMENTS FOR THE GOLD STANDARD

Eliminate the $21 trillion USGovt deficit
Source 10,000 tonnes Gold to support the currency
Re-industrialize to work down $600 billion trade deficit"
"Back in 2017, US President Trump commissioned a study to verify the status of the US gold reserves. He and Vice President Pence, who led the study, were shocked to learn that the Fort Knox gold had been stolen. Of course, such a discovery never reaches the national news in broadcast or printed form. Thus the long delay in any conceivable effort to set up the $1 trillion infra-structure program promised during his campaign for office. The gears switched to locating and rescuing the stolen gold, with dirty fingers identified for ex-Presidents Papa Bush and Bill Clinton, along with the Wall Street crowd of criminals led by Robert Rubin. Rumors are ripe that the gold has been recovered, which also never reaches the controlled news networks. The eager await confirmation."

"The unique aspect of the current RESET with respect to gold is the many reports of hidden large gold treasure troves. Behind the scenes for the last 20 years or more have been focused battles, complete with murders, downed aircraft, hired high power attorneys, hidden projects, protected leaders, bribery by bankers, captured websites and false identities, confiscated income, and much more. History might someday tell the stories properly, but since such large scale, and so critical to forming new global boundaries, only the victors will recount the stories. Each gold trove is worth in the multiple $trillions for magnitude. In the Fort Knox case, only half $1 trillion. Any usage of multi-$trillion treasure troves brought forward for implemented usage, "
https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/g...-tons-of-gold/
The thought comes to mind that America will discover a LONG hidden treasure trove of gold. Will it be the gold manufactured by John Bedini's process. Reportedly, Cejka said that the process did work but, it wasn't time yet to be manufacturing gold.
Ref: Part 20, The Cjeka Files.
Petrovoltaics
Jim Willie also had an interesting claim about hidden flash drives.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...bytes-of-data/
8/13 More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU – Guardian
Yeah, the City of London is buying votes to stop Brexit.
8/13 Lira crisis: action by Turkey’s central bank fails to quell contagion fears – Guardian
8/13 In America, wage growth entirely wiped out by inflation – Chicago Tribune


Armstrong said that the Eurozone project was doomed from the start because they didn't have a common debt market.
“The situation can’t be resolved, and it is going to explode,” Claudio Borghi told Reuters after Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bond yields rose in the wake of the financial turmoil in Turkish markets. "
“Either the ECB offers a guarantee or the euro will be dismantled,” said Borghi, who is president of the lower house budget committee.

The extra yield that investors demand for holding Italian bonds over top-rated German ones rose to its highest since late May earlier on Monday, briefly rising above 280 basis points before easing back to around 275. "
No kidding!! What a surprise
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1KY1N2

Here is a good article on the World Monetary Base.
"The first effect to watch out for is a contraction in international trade as a consequence of the US dollar shortage. Every time in the past that there has been a contraction in the WMB, six or so months later there has been a steep decline in the volume of world trade (at least since 1994"
https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/th...ssion-of-2019/
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Old 08-14-2018, 02:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Turkish contagion,,, ECB & QE

Turkey is the problem du jour. If it's currency drops 45% in value, all those dollar-denominated loans become VERY expensive to service. This is what Armstrong warned about. This is what is happening. Investors get nervous and, contagion spreads.
8/14 Goldman warns of US companies’ emerging market exposure – CNBC
8/14 What happens in Turkey won’t stay in Turkey; this crisis is different – CNBC
8/14 Three things are deadly for emerging markets, and Turkey might be the trigger – ZH

Kunstler,,,, just read it.
Close Up and Long Shot - Kunstler
Remember that, as a currency falls, the State has to raise interest rates to attract / retain investors.
8/14 Argentina to increase benchmark interest rate to 45 pct – Reuters

8/14 22-year-old crypto millionaire scammed out of 5,500 bitcoins – Mashable
8/14 Wave of crypto mining at colleges, businesses raising hacking concerns – CNBC

CONCERN, you say. Crypto coins have no future. 10% have already been stolen. Quantum computers will make it worse.
8/14 Bugs in mobile credit card readers could leave buyers exposed – Wired
You can go cashless,,,, I’ll keep my paper.
8/13 Gold clinging to $1,200 for dear life as fiat crisis goes global – Silver Doctors
8/13 Why rising inflation won’t help gold prices this time – SafeHaven

That which doesn't go up,,,, doesn't go down either.

"The promise that a single currency would produce a single interest rate has been a complete failure.

This is what I have been warning about. Ten years of QE has FAILED to stimulate the economy of Europe, it has only made governments addicted to the ECB buying their debt at absurd low levels in rate. The Eurozone will indeed break apart once QE stops for rates will soar and tensions will then rise among the 28 member states for the promise of a single currency would produce a single interest rate pointing to the USA as their proof was a lie. The USA federal debt had a single rate because it was a single authority issuing the debt, not 28 separate states."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...e-of-eurozone/
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Old 08-15-2018, 04:01 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Space Force,,,hari kari in Turkey

Twitter's 13 Funniest Responses To Trump's Ridiculous 'Space Force ...
Trump Has Ordered A "Space Force" And The Jokes Are Practically...
Pentagon Had Spurned U.S. Space Force, Prompting Trump's Decree

AND,
"data used to prepare the year-*end financial statements were unreliable and lacked an adequate audit trail. The report indicates that just 170 transactions accounted for $2.1 trillion in year-end unsupported adjustments. No information is given about these 170 transactions. "
"In addition many thousands of transactions with unsubstantiated adjustments were, according to the report, removed by the Army. There is no explanation concerning why they were removed nor their magnitude.”
https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/...-the-treasury/
You paid for a Space Force. You might as well get to see it.

14 Aug, https://www.rt.com/business/435897-a...ed-attack-fbi/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKBN1KY0Y5
" More specifically, the forecast remains that the country will impose capital controls enforcing a near total loss of US$500bn of credit assets held by the global financial system."
"Turkey will almost certainly be the largest EM default of all time, should it resort to capital controls as your analyst expects, but it could also be the largest bankruptcy of all time given the difficulty of its creditors in recovering any assets. "
"Strong form capital controls produce a de facto debt moratorium, and very rapidly investors realize just how little their credit assets are worth. A de jure debt moratorium at the outbreak of The Great War in 1914 bankrupted almost the entire European banking system -"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...fault-all-time
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Old 08-15-2018, 04:06 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Had to break it up for some reason

Here is the chart for the Argentine peso, https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...2018-08-13.png
"and this from a country that over the past 67 years, has defaulted six times on its foreign currency debts: in 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2001, and its “selective default” in 2014. "
"instead of trying to address the problem, or beg the IMF for a bailout, the Turkish government has heaped scorn on the West. In return, the Turkish lira plunged another 8% against the dollar on Monday, to 7.04 lira to the dollar.
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Old 08-15-2018, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Still wouldn't post

"
Seen the other way around, as the chart below shows, the value of 1 lira has now dropped to 14.4 US cents, from 25 cents just four months ago,"
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/13/pr...-come-unglued/
Maybe Erdogan shouldn't have shot down the Russian plane and pilot a few months ago. He says that he doesn't need the West. He is going to get new friends.
The BRICs are getting whacked one by one.
8/14 Indian rupee drops to all-time low against dollar as Turkish crisis hits EMs – Ind
Corporate bonds in Emerging Markets look worse that public debt.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb...ies#gs.TepldLk
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Old 08-15-2018, 02:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Contagion and the hunt for taxes

"They" wanted an integrated worldwide financial system. As a bonus, "they" got a worldwide platform for CONTAGION.
They wanted unlimited cross-border capital flows. In good times, capital flows to where it gets the best return. In bad times, capital flows to the State that promises the most stability. The States with the best return are usually very risky places to invest. As confidence shifts, capital shifts. The attitude shifts from return ON capital to return OF capital.
Many investors would rather buy stocks at nosebleed valuations than hold bonds... both sovereign and private.
8/15 Think Turkey, Argentine sovereign debt is bad? Look at companies – Bloomberg

Our world situation; the mega-parasite writes the laws. What can you expect?
"No matter what country we look at, governments are going broke. Consequently, they are all beginning to turn against their people in the hunt for money. Some governments have just completely crossed the line between a free society and moved directly into the classification of authoritarianism. Australia has just been hunting its own citizens and demonizing the rich. They even coined the phrase: “Cash of for Criminals!”
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...out-australia/

"to to answer those who ask WHY will China surpass the USA, the answer is simple. The trend is already set in motion and the West just has to that Marxism not only violated the Ten Commandments, but it suppresses human ingenuity and stunts economic growth. The more we move to try to save the collapse of socialism, it is like Erdogan refusing to accept responsibility for the collapse of the Turkish lira."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...inst-the-west/

The German Government too is looking for every Euro that it can squeeze out of some producer.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ests-for-cash/
Erdogan is a nut-case psychopath. He will never give up his megalomaniac dreams of a new Ottoman Empire. The IMF won't give Turkey money unless he gives up control. He approached Qatar and, was turned down. Turkey can no longer service it's external debt.

Italy came out and said that QE had to continue "to infinity and, beyond"
QE is necessary for the non-producers. The producers actually create something and, have an income. The overlay of the EU bureaucracy on top of the existing state bureaucracy reduced the GDP of Italy (for instance) by 20%.
"The Euro has continued to fall dropping at the time of this post to 11343. The bottom of this channel lies at the 11315 area and behind the curtain, our phone is in meltdown mode. After’s Italy warning that the ECB has to keep QE going or the entire bond market will collapse forcing the breakup of the EU has finally made many of the dollar-haters start to realize that indeed Draghi has destroyed the European economy and bond market."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...pe-in-reality/
Keep in mind that super Mario Draghi is from Goldman Sachs. I suspect that he believed that; once he got hold of the keys to the printing press, everything would be fine.
He tried to rescue all his banking buddies. When the bond market collapses, he is going to be very unpopular.

8/15 Household debt hits record high $13.29 trillion, led by mortgages, student loans – TM
8/15 Forget about Turkey. Asia is the elephant in the room – Talk Markets

The Asian leaders aren't near as stupid as Erdogan.
8/15 China banks bad loans surge most on record amid deleveraging – Bloomberg
The Chinese seem to gamble without conscience. The shrinkage in working population and, the shrinkage in world markets was never figured into the equation.
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Old 08-16-2018, 03:03 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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ECB, up against the wall,,,Contagion, Lira to the Yuan

The new Italian government came out and said that the EU would crash if it stopped QE. Everybody already knew that this was true but, they ignored it. After the pronouncement, things started to fall apart.
"The Euro has fallen to 113006. Once again, the dangerous game here is when we cross that line of demarcation between CONFIDENCE in government and the REALIZATION that there is nobody in control but the free markets. Once all the talk and all the promises are no longer considered to be worth listening to, that is when the monetary crisis begins to really shake the foundations. We are moving closer to that point of no return."
"The ECB has had the Eurozone on life-support. They cannot pull the plug without the collapse of the Euro and with that, lies the jobs in Brussels. This is why they will become draconian and attempt to outlaw selling the Euro all to maintain their jobs. They will lose. The free markets ALWAYS win!."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ng-to-dollars/
The blob State in Brussels will eventually take some kind of action to preserve their cushy jobs. This future action will be EXACTLY the wrong thing.

The Central Bank of Turkey jumped in to save the currency. This will be short-term at best. Also, Quatar gave them a $15 billion loan,,, more short-term.
"Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place."
As soon as Qatar comes to this same conclusion, the money will stop.

"Erdogan has threatened to walk into the arms of Russia and Erdogan is simply not someone the West should trust. I have been warning that NATO should absolutely withdraw from Turkey. Until the people overthrow this guy, he should be distanced RIGHT NOW!!!!! He has been against Greece and Israeli. He is by no means of a particular side. He has been fixed on his vision of restoring the Ottoman Empire and he has ruined the economy of Turkey. Erdogan is far more dangerous than any other world leader "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...me-your-enemy/

State bureaucrats will always tell the State what the State wants to hear. More and more states are following what Armstrong recommends. If he recommends dumping turkey ASAP, many will listen and act. He brings a historical clarity to everything.
99.8% of Turkey is muslim and, Erdogan is appealing to religious fundamentalists for support. Theocracies never work out.
"It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...sis-is-turkey/
From a historical point of view, Turkey is on the most frequently travelled road to disintegration. Attaturk had tried to modernise Turkey so that it would continue to be a secular State and not a religious State. The Turkish military assumed the role of kicking out leaders who were to religious. Up to this point, they had done pretty well. Not this time. Erdogan beat them.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...s-yet-to-come/
Turkey does NOT have a domestic arms industry. They have to import everything.

Armstrong, "ANSWER: We have been warning that the first to crack would be emerging markets and Turkey was the focal point."
"This is SERIOUS. People have to understand that this is NOT my personal belief, opinion, or anything else based upon some predetermined conclusion. People attack me personally because they cannot defend a system that NOBODY in their right mind would have created from scratch."
"The countries who want help are generally the peripheral not the majors for this is too political. Hence, we just have to crash and burn and then puck up the burning embers."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...pon-the-world/

Not so strangely, the crisis in Turkey is bring down other emerging markets including CHINA.
Offshore Yuan, https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...15_7-00-52.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ans-collapsing
Comments; "

All those graphs just indicate that EM currencies across the board are collapsing in "exchange value" against the USD. We are going to see national defaults on dollar denominated debt, most of it owned by the TBTF multinational banks including the USA big 5. This will lead to a freeze up in the credit markets far more acute than 2008. The Fed and the ECB will print at warp drive 9 to reverse it as they did in 2008-9 which will result in hyperinflation this time and the collapse in purchasing power of all fiat including the USD and the euro.
This will set the stage of the Cabal's Hunger Games attempted reset, as the world cries out in pain for the institutions that planned and executed the collapse to save them. BTW, China and Russia have vast amounts of unrecognized gold in storage. They have been expecting this for at least a decade and prepping. China will let their bubble pop and deflate to some extent and then step in with fractional gold backing. Same with Russia though they are less debt ridden than Chinese corporations."

The Yellow Peril has a plan, https://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-pl...-stock-market/
All the EM debt will blow, https://dailyreckoning.com/you-shoul...t-debt-bubble/
8/16 90% of cryptocurrency market facing ‘extinction-level event’: Xapo president – Yahoo
8/16 The ‘gig economy’ is the new term for serfdom – Truthdig
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Old 08-17-2018, 03:31 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fallout from low wages

China moved 300 million + self-sufficient peasants off the land and, into the cities. This wasn't a natural, organic change. It had to be paid for with enormous State debt. Now, there is no looking back. If China wants to keep all these millions working, it has to create and maintain employment. China may dream of being a world power but, it must keep it's people employed. Jim Rickards says that China will sacrifice it's stock market to keep employment going.
Repost; https://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-pl...-stock-market/

China will continue to break all the rules just to keep going. State debt is way past 300% because organic growth just isn't there. It is all financed by State credit.
"Shen Weipeng is a 29-year-old trust manager in Beijing, working in one of the highest-paid vocations in China. His after-tax income last year was about 260,000 yuan (US$38,000)."
"Even as households have been borrowing more, data indicates they have been spending less. Banks’ outstanding loans to households jumped 19 per cent year on year in May and 18.8 per cent in June, but China’s overall retail sales growth rate dropped to a 15-year low of 8.5 per cent in May"
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...-out-trade-war

To get the most for your money, you must work where the wages & prices are high AND, spend where the wages & prices are low. The wages in China are just too low. Without foreign markets, China shrinks. The PBOC printed up more than the BOJ, ECB, and FED combined. Sovereign bonds are paid back with money skimmed off in taxes. China, like most of the world, was counting on a wage-price spiral to deflate away the pain of paying back the debt. As China's foreign markets shrink (from low wages), China must rely on money printing to support the sovereign bond market. Skimming taxes off wages just won't do it.
The trade wars are all about exporting unemployment.

8/17 China vows to control debt despite fresh stimulus for cooling economy – AFR
China must continue to print to keep jobs going.
China must stop printing to preserve it's bond market.
The ECB must stop printing to try to preserve it's bond market.
The ECB must continue to print to preserve it's banking system.
8/17 Bond default in Xinjiang the latest sign of stresses in China’s financial system – SCMP
8/17 Trump’s trade war is rattling China’s leaders – New York Times


Yeah, I'll bet. They are most worried about social stability.
Armstrong said that emerging markets go first. America will struggle along until the beginning of 2020. The emerging markets are definitely going.
https://dailyreckoning.com/this-is-w...t-u-s-markets/
Both China and Turkey are fighting the currency speculators. They will run out of ammunition unless they are willing to sell gold.
8/17 Turkey slashes capacity of banks to bet against struggling lira – CNBC
Erdogan has feces-for-brains. He can murder and incarcerate ANYONE inside Turkey. He has made the logical jump that he can control those outside Turkey. The bond markets have told him to GET STUFFED.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...regime-change/
America won't sell him the F-35s because he just doesn't have the money to pay for them.
Time to update your scorecard. Turkey seemed to be sliding down the fastest. After Venezuela, of course. Now, there is a new contender. Keep in mind that Spanish banks will crater when Turkish debt defaults. Just the same, Italy is seen as the next blowout.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/ital...trategist.html
Now, Poland is a contender to be the crash du jour.
8/17 Poland, the next turkey? Spotlight on the zloty and external debt – Mish
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EO4ZRhENTmnNA/
You can well imagine that default contagion is coming from MANY sources.

8/17 Hyperinflation has destroyed Venezuela – Gold Telegraph
Actually, socialism destroyed Venezuela. Socialism seems to bring "leaders" with a peculiar brand of stupidity. Chavez fired experienced oil execs and put his cronies in. Oil production has crashed.

Globalism and the corporatocracy used regulatory capture to rig all markets in their favor. Naturally, the loser was the common man. Parasites can't suck rocks. They need to suck blood from an actual producer. The health of the host is of no concern until the blood stops flowing. The parasite is now printing up mega-tons of debt that it intends to load up on the host. The markets will eventually come to the conclusion that the host can't bear the burden. The latest pronouncement from the Italian GOV sent a shock through the markets,,,, by stating the obvious.
The corporatocracy is not about to give up power. The host has quit reproducing. In the coming default cascade, the corporatocracy will be reduced to a fraction that is commensurate with the earning power of the host.
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...endent-on.html
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Old 08-18-2018, 01:04 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fulford and the battle for Planet Earth

One ring to find them,, one ring to bind them.
Creating the "goddess". The super artificial intelligence.
"Representatives of an Asian secret society explained the goals of the new Goddess project to this writer earlier this summer. As it now exists, the Goddess can identify anybody’s face and within 7 seconds pull up all the data available on that person “such as their blood type.” The data also almost certainly includes (to those who are authorized access) the person’s educational records, medical records, criminal records (if any), their address, family members, close friends, insurance, private messages, financial situation, gaming duration, smart-home statistics, preferred newspapers, shopping history, dating behavior, their “social credit score,” etc. All of this within 7 seconds. They can also follow a person “anywhere on earth,” the sources say."

https://benjaminfulford.net/
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Old 08-18-2018, 10:29 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Of course, wars are NECESSARY,,,interest rates

There are many millions of people who suffer (and die) and chafe under the control of the Khazarian Mafia. The press and military establishment have it all under control. War spending must grow and go on forever. Trump demanded that the Germans spend tons more money for NATO if they are so worried about Russia invading. He pointed out that the Germans send many billions to Russia for oil. So, are the Russians an enemy that justifies a big army or, NOT.
Italian infrastructure is falling apart and crashing down. Trump asks; what is the justification of spending billions on armament when the country is disintegrating.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...e-too-far.html
Putin is doing his part. No matter how much provocation is piled on Russia, he refuses to respond belligerently.
Kim and Moon are trying to do their parts and end the state of war.
North Korea, South Korea and the U.S. Role in Delaying Peace | Time
time.com › History › Opinion
4 days ago - How the U.S. Helped Prevent North Korea and South Korea From declaring peace.


The one thread that you see constantly is; NO spending on infrastructure. lavish spending on "defense". In spite of the presence of NATO, "they" are pushing for a European army.
Peace must be avoided at all costs, The Report From Iron Mountain.
Trump, Putin, Xi and many others are trying to pull the world OUT of a constant war mentality and, into a mentality that does NOT include HUGE expenditures for arms. The army is still a convenient place to stash all the young males who would be shiftless and problematic in the general society. The huge arms budgets are an entirely different story.

The debt is growing faster than exponentially and, a spending solution will be forced on the world before long. NONE of this is something new. Our Bretton Woods credit card has managed to carry us along far longer than thought possible. Just the same, belligerent empires go bust.
"In reality, the United States and its Western European allies are now discovering the hard way the same lesson that drained and exhausted the Soviet Union from the creation of the Warsaw Pact in 1955 to its dissolution 36 years later. The tier of Central European nations has always lacked the coherence, the industrial base and the combined economic infrastructure to generate significant industrial, financial or most of all strategic and military power."

"Far from strengthening the Soviet Union, those nations weakened and distracted it. Today, NATO is repeating the Soviet Mistake and that fatal move is inexorably draining the alliance of all its strength and credibility."
https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...rsaw-pact.html

"The New York Times also played an outsized role in another event that has cost America dearly in trillions of dollars of fiscal spending and an economy that has experienced subpar economic growth for a decade.
We’re speaking of the New York Times editorial page’s incessant cheerleading for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act – the 1933 Banking Act "
"banks holding Federally-insured deposits from the casino investment banks on Wall Street. The Glass-Steagall Act had kept the U.S. financial system safe for 66 years until its repeal in 1999 – at the urging of the New York Times and Wall Street lobbyists. Just nine years after its repeal, the U.S. financial system collapsed, producing the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, including the loss of millions of jobs and millions of homes to foreclosure."

Keep in mind that "we" got the FED in 1913. By 1929, the economy collapsed. The FED is a creature owned by the banks. It will always work to preserve the banks.
"In the leadup to the bogus U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, it was the New York Times using its bullhorn to cheer on the attack. As media watchdog Media Matters’ Eric Boehlert wrote in 2014:"
U.S. Media’s Use of Its Collective Voice Reveals a Tragic Truth about America
Arthur Gregg (A.G.) Sulzberger is the front man for the Khazarian Mafia in NYC.
Much of the rest of the article is pure BS.

Way back when, money had intrinsic value. You loaned money and had to forego consumption to do so. Interest was the reward that you earned for risk and lack of consumption. When money is created by the peta-pixels, does anyone forgo consumption? Is there truly any risk if you can just conjure up boatloads more money. The whole family of ZIRP, NIRP, QE and QT distorts the cost of money. What should interest rates be?
Well, we are at a 5,000 year low for interest rates AND a bubble beyond anything ever seen before.

"Yet despite the false leads and dead ends, Sylla believes he’s penetrated the mysteries of interest rate cycles throughout history:

“It seems like there is a U-shaped cycle for each civilization.”
Beginning at the top left of the “U,” interest rates begin a downward cycle.
Critically, Sylla’s research shows that as interest rates fall… civilizations rise.
Civilizations crest as interest rates near the bottom of the “U.”
These civilizational heights bring heroic deeds… great achievements… and golden ages."
"The higher a people’s intelligence and moral strength, the lower the rate of interest."
Ah yes, morality & business
"Rates start rising off the bottom of the “U,” up the right side of the slope.
The burden of accumulated debt rises with them.
The added weight throws chains upon civilization… the flame of achievement flickers… and it finally fades.
In this manner, each civilization Sylla studied “declined and fell.”
The message, clear as gin:
Civilization rises with falling interest rates. Fattened by debt… civilization falls with rising interest rates."
The bankers move in and try to squeeze out more wealth than the underlying economy can pay.
https://dailyreckoning.com/interest-...-civilization/
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Old 08-18-2018, 11:37 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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sovereign debt Kabuki theater

8/18 S&P cuts Turkey credit rating deeper into junk territory – CNBC
All the big funds are required to follow the ratings agencies. If something is rated too low, they must sell. The plug gets pulled and, it is a self-reinforcing trip down the credit drain.
Of course, fallout is to be expected.
8/18 Turkish tremors will cause shocks in Britain – Times
8/18 Venezuela launches crypto-pegged forex rate, devaluing by 96 percent – GATA
That's not much of a peg.

"Large companies dedicated 93% of their earnings to shareholders between 2007 and 2016 – a shift from the early 1980s, when they sent less than half their revenue to shareholders and spent the rest on employees"
Elizabeth Warren wants to force companies to raise wages by law.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...hest-companies
Thierry Meyssan wants the State to seize transnational companies.
Seize the transnational corporations to rebuild Syria?
I just don't have faith in either idea.

So investors have abandoned the sovereign debt of several States, Turkey, Greece, Argentina, Poland, Italy, et al.
REPORTEDLY, investors are buying up U.S. debt.

Japan and China are cutting way back. China MUST keep some U.S. debt so that they can sell dollars and buy Yuan if the Yuan is attacked.
https://www.rt.com/business/436193-j...-debt-dumping/
"According to the Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor, the amount of debt held in the world rose by the biggest amount in two years during the first quarter of 2018. It grew by $8 trillion to hit a new all-time high of $247 trillion"
“It is all about taking money from us and transferring it into government pockets. And then, taking money from government pockets, and transferring it into the hands of the elite. It’s a game that’s been going on for generations"

"But over the same period, the US gross national debt, fired up by a stupendous spending binge, soared by a breath-taking $1.36 trillion. So who bought this $1.36 trillion in new debt?"
"the holdings of China and Japan have edged down. At the end of 2015, their combined holdings amounted to nearly 13% of the total US debt. By the end of June, this was down to 10.4% (green line), with Japan’s holdings (blue line) now down to 4.9% of total US government debt, and China’s stash (red line) down to 5.6%:"
Perhaps not so ironically: Of the 12 largest holders of US Treasuries, after China and Japan, seven are tax havens for foreign corporate and/or individual entities (bold):

Brazil: $300 billion
Ireland: $300 billion
UK (“City of London”): $274 billion
Switzerland: $236 billion
Luxembourg: $220 billion
Cayman Islands: $197 billion… down from $250 billion in April 2017!
Hong Kong: $192 billion
Saudi Arabia: $165 billion
Taiwan: $163 billion
Belgium: $155 billion
India: $147 billion
Singapore: $122 billion

"By the end of June, the US gross national debt had reached $21.21 trillion, up $1.36 trillion from June last year"
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/15/wh...ast-12-months/
Since the capital inflows are all just pixels, the Treasury can report ANY amount of inflows that it wants. America is attracting global capital because of the apparent health of U.S. sovereign debt. I seriously doubt that the reported capital inflows are legitimate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...C0%2C0%2C0%2C1

Armstrong claims that real estate will make it through the reset. This isn't a very smart claim. Other than the house that you live in, all RE is worth as much as somebody else will pay for it.
"The crisis that unfolds is the collapse in the mortgage market. Then we will see a deleveraging of real estate. However, that said, real estate makes the transition as a hedge during a reset. For example, during the German hyperinflation that led to a currency reset, that new currency that was issued was backed by real estate – not gold. Keep in mind that as the currency declines, then the repayment cost of a mortgage declines. On the one hand, mortgages will be unavailable"
What is the value of your vacation home if nobody can get a mortgage?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-to-the-reset/

"Britain has NEVER benefited from the EU. Your economic growth has declined ever since joining back in 1973"
"the computer pinpointed the crisis in the Euro would begin during the 3rd quarter here in 2018 where we had both a Directional Change and the beginning of a Panic Cycle."
"Note that there is a turning point showing up in the 1st quarter next year but the big one will be the 3rd quarter 2019."
"As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53, but that does not seem likely absent war in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rvative-split/

"The Turkish Minister of Finance Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, is trying to assure foreign investors that he will implement strict fiscal discipline and structural reforms. He has come up with a new slogan saying that Turkey will “emerge even stronger” from the crisis. There are almost 4,000 investors in Turkey who have lost a fortune based on the currency alone"
"What Erdogan fails to see is that the collapse in the currency is not simply black and white numbers. This is a collapse in confidence in him personally."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...re-his-people/
Erdogan has no friends and, too many people read Armstrong.
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Old 08-19-2018, 04:53 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Still trying to save the un-savable

Armstrong's program predicted an upturn in earthquakes beginning on the 20th. He was off.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-more-to-come/
The models at Suspicious Observers also predicted it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLvp7zXzXno&t=252s

Low wages and automation have wiped out earning power and discretionary spending. With global low wages, there is little to be skimmed off for the State and the banks. The price of everything should have fallen until it was commensurate with earning power. The knee-jerk response was to print new money to make up for the money that was not circulating. The lack of circulation was in the lower loop while the infusion of new money went into the upper loop. While they could claim that this is one big grand experiment, it has never worked when tried previously.

"After 10 years of near-constant central bank interventions to prop up markets and make stocks, bonds and real estate rise in price. This is known as the “central bank put”: whenever the markets begin to teeter, the central banks will step in to prop/nudge/cajole the markets back towards the “correct” direction, which is always: Up!"
"The 2008 crisis really spooked them. Hence their massive money printing spree to "rescue" the system.

But instead of admitting that Great Financial Crisis was the logical result of flawed policies implemented after the 2000 Dot-Com crash (which, in turn, was the result of flawed policies pursued in the 1990’s), the central banks decided after 2008 to double down on their bets -- implementing even worse policies."
"It’s not hyperbole to say that the monetary experiment conducted over the past ten years by the world’s leading central banks (and its resulting social and political ramifications) is the largest-ever in human history:"
"The list of central bank-induced injustices is long. It reads like the rap sheet of a virulent psychopath: $trillions looted from savers and handed to the big banks and leveraged speculators, ruined pensions, shattered retirement dreams for millions, record amounts of debt in every corner of the global economy, and an increasingly unaffordable cost of living for everyone but the elite 1%."

"the central banks ramped up their wanton ways in the years since the GFC. Did you know that their largest-ever printing spree happened over the past two years? (2016 to 2017)"
Ah yes,,, losing ground.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...-human-history

"Opening up Italy’s markets and lowering taxpayers’ burdens is the path to sustainable, organic growth, but that is not the purpose of IMF-style austerity. It’s purpose is to do exactly what it is doing, strangling Italy to death and extracting the wealth and spirit out of the local population, c.f. Greece and before that Russia in the 1990’s."

"Italian banks have begun buying Italian sovereign debt in what is known as the Debt Doom Loop —"
"This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the backstop of the ECB – has for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the doom loop, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, have been an abject failure."

"Moreover, this weakness has spread to the euro, which has broken down below strong support at $1.15 and is now looking at $1.10 or lower."
Armstrong, "As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53"
https://tomluongo.me/2018/08/16/italian-default-menu/

"The renminbi has now declined 8.7% from March 30th trading highs "
" New yuan loans stood at 1.45 trillion yuan, versus a projected 1.275 trillion yuan and 1.84 trillion yuan the previous month. Broad M2 money supply rose 8.5%,"
Could there be a connection?
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...stability.html

8/19 US debt so high interest payments are forming a “black hole” – Birch Gold
No problem,,, as long as the FED reports that the CIA money-laundering havens are still buying U.S. bonds.
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Old 08-21-2018, 02:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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What are you doing in 2020?

"The turning point, according to the computer model, which was verified at the time by Australia's largest computer, is the year 2020. "At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical," ABC said. After that, a precipitous drop in quality of life is predicted."

https://sputniknews.com/society/2018...17-63665&ues=1

"We were on a gold standard at the time, so he (FDR) had to confiscate gold to devalue the dollar. We’re not on a gold standard today, so they’re not going to go around confiscating gold and knocking on people’s doors."
"So, it’s a question of confidence and only when you start seeing the governments crack, when you start seeing Europe crack, etc., then you’re going to see the rise in gold,"
"What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades."
"The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ny-place-safe/

"everything we've seen since October is more or less a crash and burn in the confidence in government. If you go back 8.6 years from that, it takes you right to the day with the peak in the Shiller real estate index...1989 was the peak in Japan, 1981 was the peak in interest rates at 17% and so each business cycle happens to be something else. I would say humanity simply wants to speculate or concentrate and whatever happens to be the fad for that particular time is where they go...and this last one is government. So we are in a crash and burn basically into 2020.”
https://www.financialsense.com/contr...forty-thousand
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Old 08-21-2018, 02:55 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Turmoil and haircuts

Armstrong warned that U.S. sovereign debt will collapse LAST. Somebody did not get the memo.
"Noting the “massive increase” in short positions against 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets, he warned in a Twitter posting that Treasury bond shorts are the "highest in history, by far,"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...mment-12223463
TOO EARLY.

8/20 David Stockman: ‘Unhinged White House’ to cause stock market crash – CNBC
Sadly, Stockman is ignoring foreign capital inflows.
8/20 Nomura: Equity funds in “multi-month performance disaster” – Zero Hedge
I never said that equities were perfect. It’s just that bonds look so much worse.
8/20 China ‘colonising’ smaller countries by lending them money they can never repay – Sun
8/20 Turkey crisis rattles Asian nations with rising Belt and Road debts – Nikkei
Whatever works.
8/20 Global turmoil shows the US is still the safest place for your money – CNBC
As long as people continue to believe that legitimate investors are buying U.S. treasury bonds.
8/19 Venezuela in chaos after Maduro announces 95% devaluation – ZH
8/20 Ecuador tightens entry rules for Venezuelan migrants – BBC

So sad.
8/20 JP Morgan cuts Tesla price target to 195 in scathing report – Zero Hedge That is going to leave a mark.

Armstrong on haircuts.
"We are also witnessing this at the municipal level in Germany where about 50% of municipal governments are effectively bankrupt"
"So when we look at the indebtedness of even Emerging Markets, keep in mind that the loser will be the lender – not the borrower"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...or-the-lender/
So, all the millions of people and entities who loaned money to GOV will find their investments near worthless. THEY will stop spending money.

Merkel continues down the road to destruction.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ance-minister/
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Last edited by Danny B; 08-22-2018 at 03:03 AM. Reason: mistook
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  #2902  
Old 08-22-2018, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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War debt,,, gold

The U.S. debt is about equal to the missing money from the Pentagon,,, $21 trillion. Jack Ma (alibaba) said that America was in huge debt because of all the wars. It's hard to argue with that and now, Netanayahooo is trying to get us in another war over gas pipelines.
Immigration, Globalization, Political Correctness: The Jewish Elites Attack On The Western World: The Two Jewish-led Globalist Camps... In Competition For Global Control
At the same time, we are told that America is broke because of all the generous promises made by politicians.

8/21 Russia adds another 25 tons of gold to reserves in July – Smaulgld
8/21 As Iran turns to Bitcoin, maybe it’s time to build another Stuxnet – The Hill
Yeah, that would be real smart. When it gets out in the wild, nothing would be safe.

Gold,
"The Large Speculator (hedge funds, managed money, trading funds) NET position is now SHORT 3,688 contracts. This is the first reported NET short position for this group since December of 2001.
The Large Speculator GROSS short position is 215,467 contracts. This is a new ALLTIME high."
"hus, with a GROSS position of 215,467 contracts, the Large Speculator category is short 21,546,700 ounces or about 670 metric tonnes."
"The Commercial Banks have positioned themselves to profit handsomely from any combination of a lower dollar, higher gold prices, lower interest rates and/or a crashing stock market."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-do-banks-know

Too many people, especially Germans, have this stupid belief that the quantity of money controls the markets. Merkel is deathly afraid of hyperinflation. She demands austerity. She destroyed Greece. Now, she intends to destroy Italy with austerity.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...h-brussels-eu/
"The Great Depression was not reversed until they stopped Austerity which only benefits the bondholders – not the people. To sell their debt, they presume they need austerity so bondholders get back the fair value of what they lent. That has never happened anyway."
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Old 08-23-2018, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Alternative to SWIFT,,,Chinese dragon has arthritis

Germany has a $1 trillion account surplus. The rest of Europe has a $1 trillion deficit. The Germans are getting very nervous because, even though SWIFT is based in Brussels, it is under quite a bit of control of America. EVERYONE wants to escape the dollar,,,, mostly because of the politicians. Germany is calling for a new global settlement mechanism that does NOT include America. I can't say that I blame them.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...independent-us

Keep in mind that China, et al have an independent system already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-...ayments_System
SWIFT is just a payment and clearing system, NOT an investment.
"The average daily value of payment messages on SWIFT is estimated to be above €6 trillion"
It makes sense to use CIPS when the East is dealing with the East.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-swift-system/

There is also a widely used banking identification system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...Account_Number
All of this depends on perception.
Everybody believes that there are legitimate buyers of American treasury bonds. This is highly doubtful. Belgium is reported as buying billions. Last time that Belgium was reported to be buying U.S,. bonds, it didn't have ANY U.S. dollars with which to buy them. The the tax havens are buying them. That would be mostly C.I.A. and who knows if the sales are even legitimate.
So, the dollar goes up.
Super Mario Draghi was the only buyer of State debt of many EU States. So, that is out in the open.
The BOJ is buying all the state debt AND TONS of stocks. That is out in the open.
" New yuan loans stood at 1.45 trillion yuan, versus a projected 1.275 trillion yuan and 1.84 trillion yuan the previous month. Broad M2 money supply rose 8.5%,"
How can the Yuan be perceived as a competitor to the dollar if China prints bazillions AND, the FED prints almost nothing?
The FED doesn't need to print because investors loan it money by the truckload. The U.S. dollar is the best currency because,,, it is perceived as being the safest currency.
8/23 Malaysia cancels two big Chinese projects, fearing they’ll bankrupt the country – WaPo

The better the dollar looks, the sooner that offshore dollar-denominated debt crashes.
A new reference for judging the stock market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...895-2018-08-21
China pumped out bazillions of Yuan to get the Belt & Road initiatve rolling. Now, it is finding that unlimited credit creation to help out numerous States is getting too expensive.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/opini...ina#gs.gTexyKQ

All the major Central banks appear to be tightening. The graphs on this page are very good but, they are blurred. You have to open them in another tab.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EmL2DRWecL5mw/

A case of cause & effect.
Unions were created to protect the working man. Unfortunately, they protect him whether he is bad or good at work. The pipe fitters union is known for having a lot of druggies and deadbeats. Some of them do terrible work. Stick welding pipeline takes a lot of concentration. Protesters blocked the Keystone pipeline construction because the contracted company had a TERRIBLE record of faulty pipelines.
The Alaskan pipeline had to have major sections dug up and repaired because the X-ray QC people faked a lot of inspections. 1100 welds were bad. 36 of them could not be repaired and had to have a section cut out. These welds were buried and under rivers etc.
Keep in mind that 50% of the welds were done by sub-arc in Valdez.

So, America pipeline welders have a terrible reputation. The Pacific Northwest needs crude oil but, the governors refuse to have American pipefitters build a pipeline across their State. Driven by this, Washington and Oregon must import Russian oil.
https://business.financialpost.com/o...ific-northwest

8/23 Fed says more interest rate increases coming – NYT
We get to find where the death cross comes in. Reportedly at about 3.25--3.50%
8/23 Italian gov’t bond sell-off limits room for populist spending programs – FS Italian bonds are selling off AND Draghi says that he won't be buying any more after the end of the year. The new populist GOV is going to be in quite a squeeze.
8/23 Standards go out the window as employers struggle to fill jobs – SafeHaven
10,000 boomers retire every day and, the skills gap gets worse.
8/22 Longest bull market ever will be followed by record breaking bear – Mish
8/22 UK household debt balloons to new record – Independent

You Brits are not doing very well.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-life-syndrome
"More men in the UK have died by suicide in the past year than all British soldiers fighting in all wars since 1945."
https://www.newsweek.com/2015/02/20/...en-305913.html

Glyco-phosphate has contaminated 20,000 sq. miles of America farmland. Now it seems that we are going to finish off the job with Fracking.
https://thinkprogress.org/fracking-i...-9cb163923d24/
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Old 08-23-2018, 02:47 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Coca & Roundup,,,Saudi Arabia,,, Skills gap

Colombia Is Testing Drones to Drop Herbicide on Crops Used for Cocaine
https://gizmodo.com/colombia-is-test...s-u-1828500374
"Under newly elected President Iván Duque, Colombia is testing remote-controlled drones designed to track and destroy coca, the crop used in cocaine production. The government has reportedly tested ten drones so far. The drones carry payloads of glyphosate,"

Colombia never seems to be able to eradicate the coca. That is because it is all run by the CIA. The State dept brings herbicide to the airport at the coastal "city" of Tumaco in unmarked grey planes. One inch letters under the pilot's window tell you who the plane belongs to. The drums are unloaded and stacked off to the side. I've been there and seen all this myself.
So, the local "Arcos" must petition the CIA to avoid spraying. They must pay up and, pay a LOT. Anybody who refuses to pay gets their crop sprayed. There is also a military base in Tumaco and I’ve spoken to them. They aren't very effective because they get blocked by the big money interests. I'm guessing that the Colombian GOV wants to take coca spraying out of the hands of the CIA.

Saudi Arabia was in the process of selling a 10% stake in their national oil company. Nobody was much impressed with the IPO and, it has melted away into the desert sands.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...bands-advisors
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...oke-house-saud
https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/g...gely-depleted/

The Central Banks have rescued the upper loop of the economy. The lower loop is supposed to get by on trickle-down. It just isn't trickling fast enough and, the defaults are picking up/
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...report-reveals

Each successive Industrial Revolution reduces the need for human labor. At what point does this become a recognised problem?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rth-industrial


8/23 Standards go out the window as employers struggle to fill jobs – SafeHaven
10,000 Baby Boomers Reach Retirement Every Day
Boomers Are Retiring Rapidly: Are Successors Prepared? - Forbes

"The majority of baby boomers support their adult children
According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39.
45% of baby boomers report having no retirement savings whatsoever."
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Old 08-24-2018, 02:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Slide in consumption,,, Amazon to replace the banks

So, the view count has passed 250,000
I suspect that it is mostly from non-members. All the government wonks who are wondering how much longer they are going to collect a paycheck.
For all you wonks who do not understand economics and energy; energy is the master resource. If we can't accomplish price deflation in energy, all prices will continue to rise. Price inflation always outruns wage inflation so, consumption will continue to shrink. This is temporarily papered over by money printing / debt creation. China has set a ceiling on global wages in many sectors. Automation has much the same effect.

"Since all the global 0 to 64 year old population growth is among the lower middle and low income nations of the world, a closer look at their situation is merited. In short, it ain't good. After rocketing higher from 2002 until 2014, the situation is really deteriorating as the growth of the high and upper middle breaks down...without the growing wealthier markets to export to or in need of greater capacity in low cost countries, the engine is stalling in the poorer nations of the world."

China appeared on the scene as a flash-in-the-pan that prompted a lot of consumption from low prices. BUT, after they had gutted the wages of their best customers, it all came crashing down. Credit / debt growth in China was beyond all rationality because the Chinese are such avid gamblers.

"The high income nations represent 64% of global income and the upper middle income nations another 27% while the lower middle and low income nations represent less than 9%, combined. Not coincidentally, these breakdowns of global income, per group, line up very closely with the percentage of global energy consumed "
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/...f-secular.html

As the higher-income nations slide down in consumptive ability, they reduce their birth rate. A new awareness in China and Asia is reducing the birth rate. This "new awareness" hasn't appeared in the stupid nations. Falling birth rates and the demographic crash are incompatible with growth of the debt bubble. Everything is being papered over for the short term.

U.S. bank profits have hit a new record.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-60-billion-q2
"as we reported yesterday, there has been a sudden collapse in loan demand, reflecting rising interest rates even as banks loosened loan standards"

"The US credit card system siphons off excessive amounts of money from merchants, who must raise their prices to cover this charge. In a typical $100 credit card purchase, only $97.25 goes to the seller. The rest goes to banks and processors."
"The nightmare for the US financial industry is that a major technology company – whether one from China or a US giant such as Amazon or Facebook – might replicate the success of the Chinese mobile payment systems, cutting banks out."
"China processed a whopping $12.8 trillion in mobile payments in the first ten months of 2017." "More than 90 percent of Chinese mobile payments are run through Alipay and WeChat Pay, rival platforms backed by the country’s two largest internet conglomerates, Alibaba and Tencent Holdings."
"Alipay is free for smaller users of its platform. As total monthly transactions rise, so does the charge; but even at its maximum, it’s less than half what PayPal charges — around 1.2 percent. "
https://ellenbrown.com/2018/08/23/ho...anks-obsolete/

MANDATED BENEFITS
"The SF Chronicle casually notes in parenthesis, "By the way, the poop patrolers earn $71,760 a year, which swells to $184,678 with mandated benefits."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rs-make-185000
8/24 Italy capital flight is highest two months ever – Mish
Finance doesn't like the new lefties..
8/24 China spending push buoys debt sales, calls for new liquidity – Bloomberg China needs new liquidity to feed the tiger,,,,, so that the tiger doesn't eat the rider.
8/24 Loan demand suddenly tumbles as companies revolt to rising rates – Talk Markets
Wait, what about all the debt that the MUST roll-over?

8/23 China’s July grain imports plunge as tariffs on U.S. supplies bite – Reuters
Russia Is Exporting More Wheat Than Any Country in 25 Years ...

8/23 China again promises not to start currency war – Bloomberg That is AFTER they increased the money supply by 8.6%
8/24 Saudi economic war triggers Yemeni currency collapse – Mint Press Soon to be followed by a Saudi currency collapse.

Western banks will naturally attack Russia when the time seems right. Russia is moving to block that.
https://www.rt.com/business/436647-g...russia-limits/
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Old 08-25-2018, 03:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Yield curve and refi of junk

8/24 Fed Chair Powell: further rate hikes best way to protect recovery – Reuters
And what a FINE recovery it is. Powell is pedal-to-the-metal on rate hikes. DAMN THE TORPEDOES, FULL SPEED AHEAD. Ah, those torpedoes,,,,
I found some comments that I can not corroborate.
"As pointed out yesterday by Simon Black via the Wall Street journal 60% of all Russell 2k corporations carry junk bonds status.
Another 37% carry a BBB bond rating."

"That's right people 97% of all Russell 2k corporations have the lowest investment grade rating or junk.
Combine the above with the fact that I think around 40% of R2K companies are not even cash flow positive."

Whatever the reason, nobody wants bonds.
Bond spread, "And the 2s10s spread is now in the teens for the first time since Aug 2007..." Why does that date ring a bell? Here is a chart of the spread between 10 year and 2 year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...24_8-12-57.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/comment/12248039


8/24 Loan demand suddenly tumbles as companies revolt to rising rates – Talk Markets
So, they refuse to refi but, they need to roll over junk-rated debt.

Yield-curve inversion isn't an infallible predictor of a crash but, it has been pretty accurate.

8/24 New reality of China’s failing economy is coming soon – Jim Rickards
China Inc. is an export driven economy. The shrinkage of the middle class around the world is death to their models. As the global mean wage bites deeper, they will have to print more and more . This brings them more capital outflow AND, they have to print more.
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Old 08-27-2018, 04:44 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Powell's big bet,,, curve inversion,,, Turkey

The focus right now is; rising U.S. interest rates and, falling everything else. Bernanke conducted a huge experiment to see if mammoth money printing could stave off a recession. Powell now has an experiment of his own. Raising rates will wipe out American corporate debt service. Raising rates will wipe out emerging market currencies. Raising rates attracts capital to America. What will be the balance point?
Rising rates are a direct attack on European banks. Bond buyers are in the driver's seat. The ECB is screwed when it comes to buying bonds. They have to do it out in the open.
The U.S. treasury can depend on the PPT, ESF and CIA. The FED has visibly bowed out of the market, to create confidence. After all, if private investors have confidence in U.S. bonds, then, everybody else should have confidence.

Emerging markets desperately need dollars to service dollar-denominated loans.
"the total dollar denominated debt is 11 trillion outside of the U.S., and that's up 83% since 2009. And one-third of that is owned by emerging markets."
"There's an increase of $70 trillion worth of global debt since 2007. That's an increase of over 40% and it all hinges on one thing, Mike. It all hinges on the fact that interest rates can never be allowed to rise much above zero, for if they did the entire artificial edifice comes crashing down."
Ah yes, but, where does it crash first? Powell is making big bets on this.

"the spread between the 10-year note and the two-year note is just 22 basis points. That is by far the lowest it's ever been outside of the great recession. And the reason is very simple why we're concerned about this. Nine of the last ten times this has occurred since WWII, the economy entered into a very steep recession,"
"The yield curve is inverting as it always does because the Fed is raising short term interest rates. But here's the question, why is it that the long term interest rates across the world are falling still, if we are in a global synchronized boom or recovery as the carnival barkers like to call it? I mean, why is the 10-year note now well below 3%? It's just about 2.83% today? Why are the long-term bond yields falling in the spectrum of global growth"

"They'll go in September, they'll probably go in December. That's my best guess. Then the long bond will retreat back towards where it was in 2016, about 1.4%, and the yield curve will be very, very inverted, steeply inverted. And what happens when the yield curve inverts? Why is important? It's a good question that you asked. It's because the credit channel gets shut off. That liquidity pump gets turned off. "

Corporate America desperately needs dollars to roll over debt. Emerging markets desperately need dollars to service debt. Will the 2 blow sequentially OR, at the same time?
"people are talking about the stock market being cheap because it's only 17 times next year's earnings." "corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is at a record high, and the corporations took on this debt to buy back shares."
"The Fed has no choice, as I mentioned, the year on year rate of consumer price inflation is up 2.9%. Now, that's even way above the Fed's fatuous 2% target. So, the Fed has no choice but to react or they risk a spike in long-term borrowing race, which is the last thing they need. Now, a spike in rates would mean to the yield curve didn't invert, but it would also mean that the housing market, which is on life support, is going to roll over big time."
"the market cap of equities as a percentage of GDP is 145%. Now, it was 110% in 2007 and that ties the record set back in March of 2000, the 145%."
"China had two major credit waves since 2007. They had a huge one in 2008, another one in 2015 and 2016. They now have the most destabilizing credit bubble in the history of the planet earth. And they're sitting on a $30 trillion in debt. That debt is up 56% in the last five years. "
Pento: Trade War to Continue, Global Debt Default and Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable

8/26 Global liquidity is drying up! – Daily Reckoning It will get worse.
8/27 Another inflation gauge is set to enter the red zone – MarketWatch So, will Powell do the planned rate hikes to head off price inflation?
8/27 Powell doctrine emerges as Fed chief debuts at Jackson Hole – Bloomberg
8/27 China’s growth woes aren’t going a way – Bloomberg
8/27 Are emerging markets ready for a crisis? – Bloomberg

Stay tuned for further developments.

8/27 Latest freight data confirms alarming slowdown in global trade – TM
8/27 BIS warns of perfect storm for global economy – Zero Hedge

8/27 US, Mexico may announce NAFTA deal as soon as Monday – TM
Mexico gets a big screw job from American agriculture. Mexico isn't price competitive because American farmers get $ 20 billion in subsidies. Don't call this a tariff?
The FED sent over $8 trillion to European banks in response to the 2008 crash. That was the Bernanke-bet that he could fix everything by pumping in liquidity. The French government spends 57% of the GDP. THAT is called socialism. No amount of money can fix socialism.
https://qz.com/1362101/the-2008-fina...-really-ended/
What is true in France is also true in Illinois.
8/27 Illinois, already broke, set to borrow even more – Mish

8/23 How Turkey’s lira crisis was written in Istanbul’s skyline – Guardian
Yep, Erdogan spent to much buying votes and building the second Ottoman empire.
"After decades of near-100% annual inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey knocked six zeros off the lira on 1 January 2005, making one new lira worth $0.74. Today it is only $0.15, having lost nearly half its purchasing power this year alone."
"Indeed, loss of confidence in unbacked currencies is the greatest threat to their credibility, a fact which almost all governments and their central banks are reluctant to accept. Central bankers are all trained in mathematical economics, which allows no room for subjectivity in currency valuation, so when their currency is rejected, they are always surprised."
https://mises.org/wire/turkeys-crisi...dollars-future
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  #2908  
Old 08-28-2018, 02:42 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Location: L.A. Ca.
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automation,,, ECB & Italy,,, saving the rich

"Today, more than 35% of Tunisian young people are unemployed, and many don’t see a future in their own country.
“The state isn’t giving us anything,” a 24-year-old mechanic in Al Ataya said, "
Sorry but, the State can't give you anything. Only the market can give you a job.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/tunis...arket-implode/

"She warns that the business environment of the 2020s will be more volatile as automation may eliminate as many as 20 percent to 25 percent of current jobs—equivalent to 40 million displaced workers—and depress wage growth for many more workers."
"The robot consists of 20 computers, 350 sensors and 50 actuators that form a robotic assembly line. After the customer places an order with a human, the machine slices buns, tomatoes and onions, grills and grinds meat, adds condiments, sears buns and produces a gourmet hamburger in less than five minutes without any human intervention. "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-san-francisco
There is NO CURE for automation. When the credit collapse hits sovereign bonds, the government will collapse. The paper-pushers will not be in demand in the labor market.

The ECB is the only entity buying Italian bonds. They plan to stop this about the end of the year. The Italians want the ECB charter changed so that the ECB can buy bonds in perpetuity. This goes completely against German where they mistakenly believe the Quantity of Money theory. Armstrong has shown the theory to be BS. He has also shown that the theory of fixing everything with austerity is pure BS also. Will the Germans relent? Who knows?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...inside-the-eu/

Venezuela is following in the Zimbabwe model.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...y-devaluations
The world crash in 2008 was caused to a great degree by the slide down to a global mean wage. All the debt held by the working class had to be bailed out. The bailout consisted of pumping liquidity into the upper loop after the lower loop had crashed. Wages never recovered. The lower loop soldiered on by borrowing LOTS more money. Nothing was actually fixed for the lower loop.
https://qz.com/1362101/the-2008-fina...-really-ended/

OZ gets special mention for burning through a list of Prime Ministers very quickly.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...s-in-13-years/
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  #2909  
Old 08-28-2018, 02:43 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,048
SWIFT alternatives,,,

BOE president, "Mark Carney’s saying “New World Order”, “New Financial System”, “Now Is The Time”, and “Great Change”. Let’s connect the dots…"
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...-system-reset/
Well, they haven't just been sitting around. Keep in mind that SWIFT is based in Brussels. The broad hints from Germany and Britain claim that America controls SWIFT to the detriment of Europe. I expect that the feds use SWIFT to punish Germany for Nordstream. The Europeans are presently creating an alternative to SWIFT to escape control.
https://www.rt.com/business/436921-g...ons-sanctions/

Add to this, the Russian system, MIR. The Chinese have their own system. ALL of these systems route $trillions away from passing through New York banks. I expect that the N.Y. banks will eventually go up in a cloud of smoke.
It's not just the NYC banks.
8/28 No-deal Brexit thrusts UK into ‘legal vacuum’, warns Keir Starmer – Guardian
The London banks want unrestricted access to European markets.

The instigator of all the Russian sanctions is an Israeli born woman. The sanctions are all part of the pipeline wars. BUT
8/28 EU looking to sidestep U.S. sanctions with payment system plan – GATA
8/28 Gal Luft: The anti-dollar awakening could be ruder and sooner than most think – GATA

8/28 Italy vows to veto EU budget over migrant clash – Zero Hedge
NOPE, they want unlimited bond purchases from the ECB. They don't want the music to ever stop.
8/28 Affordability of starter homes hits a decade low – MSN Priced out by hot-money flows.
8/27 ‘Boogeyman in housing market’ makes it tougher for Americans to own homes – BI
That boogeyman (pl) would be Greenspan, Bernanke, & Yellen

Obviously, politicians can not be trusted. I've made the claim that bonds will eventually be backed with gold and, migrate to the blockchain. There is a bit of a start in that direction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...in-backed-bond
Thejuicemedia has some great vids. here is "trickle down economics".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yzeOqV7eKI
8/28 Most young Americans are living on the edge financially – MarketWatch
8/28 Landscapers “reeling” from labor shortage – Zero Hedge

Apparently, millennials don't want to be landscapers.
Jim Willie has some articles. Dunno about aliens.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/jim-willie/
Israel apparently holds final veto power on American ambassadorial appointments.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...us-ambassador/
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  #2910  
Old 08-29-2018, 03:41 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,048
Ron Paul is always a clear voice.
"In the past seven years, Turkey’s central bank has tripled the money supply " "Turkish politicians have taken advantage of easy money policies to increase subsidies for key voting blocs and special interests."
"Turkey’s combination of low interest rates, money creation, and massive government spending to “stimulate” the economy parallels the policies the US government has pursued for the past ten years. "
"Instead of cutting spending or raising taxes, politicians can be expected to pressure the Federal Reserve to do their dirty work for them via inflation. "

"If we are lucky, the next Fed-caused downturn will cause only a resurgence of 1970s-style stagflation. The more likely scenario is the type of widespread economic chaos not seen in America since the Great Depression. The growth of cultural Marxism, the widespread entitlement mentality, and the willingness of partisans of various sides to use force against their political opponents suggests that this economic crisis will result in civil unrest that will be used to justify new crackdowns on individual liberty."
"First, prepare a plan to protect your family when the crisis occurs. Second, do all you can to spread the truth in hopes the liberty movement reaches critical mass so it can force Congress to make the changes necessary to avert disaster."
That ship has already sailed.
The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity : Turkey Now, America Later?

"Meanwhile, South Korea is pursuing good relations with the North regardless of US backtracking. Washington is reportedly considering sanctions on its South Korean ally if Seoul continues on a peace path with Pyongyang. "
The wars must go on no matter what.
"The neocons are not going to give up on their obsession with "regime change" in Syria. Over the weekend National Security Advisor John Bolton all but called for another "chemical attack" in Syria to justify what he promise would be a massive US strike on Damascus."
Striking Damascus is about the worst thing imaginable.

8/28 American companies are raising prices at a brisk pace – Bloomberg So, we stop spending.
The Yuan is gradually being brought in as a reserve currency.
https://qz.com/1180434/europes-centr...-chinese-yuan/
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