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  #2821  
Old 06-17-2018, 06:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Trade war, pensions, fertility,,,, wobbly China

The upper loop of the economy is at all time highs. Here is a graph of trade flows in real stuff.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...?itok=JRhwydO0
It has turned down quite a bit. This is BEFORE tariffs, sanctions and trade wars have show their effect.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...ins-gonna-fall

" in just 16 years (1960–1976), fertility in the US dropped from 3.65 births per woman to only 1.76. "
"How can a shrinking group of working-age people support a growing number of retirement-age people? The easy and quick illustration to this question is to talk about the number of workers supporting each Social Security recipient. In 1940, it was 160. By 1950 it was 16.5. By 1960 it was 5.1. I think you can see a trend here. As the chart below shows, it will be 2.3 by 2030."
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ency_ratio.png

"How can one worker support two or three retirees while still working and trying to raise a family with mortgage payments, food, healthcare, etc.? Obviously, they can’t, at least not forever. But no one wants to admit that, so we just ignore reality. "

"States' pension funds have nearly $4 trillion of stock investments, but somehow haven't benefited from soaring stock prices.

A new report by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) shows why this is true. It notes that the unfunded liabilities of state and local pension plans jumped $433 billion in the last year to more than $6 trillion."
"This means in six years, without the $6 trillion being somehow restored (magic beans?), pension underfunding will be at $8.4 trillion or thereabouts, even if nothing else goes wrong."
"I noted last week in Debt Clock Ticking that the total US debt-to-GDP ratio is now well over 300%. That’s government, corporate, financial, and household debt combined."

"you find that the US governments from the top to bottom owe over $30 trillion, which is well over 150% of GDP. Technically, we have blown right past the Italian debt bubble. And that’s not even including unfunded Social Security and healthcare benefits, which some estimates have well over $100 trillion"
The Pension Train Has No Seat Belts | Mauldin Economics

"It is my strong view that nations that aspire to solve their shrinking population problem must first abolish their interest-based monetary and financial system and replace it with systems that are based on risk-sharing principles."
"I hope Europe, the US, Japan, Singapore and others that are faced with shrinking population problem would replace their interest-based monetary system with interest-free systems to ‘save’ their populations and unique cultures. In this regard, Islamic finance comes to mind and indeed is something all nations can consider."
https://www.ahamedkameel.com/interes...ertility-rate/
The Islamic banking system COULD be a positive solution to the current system. It has been forcefully stamped out whenever possible.

"I would argue that China's runaway mortgage finance and apartment Bubbles at this late stage of the cycle significantly increase the risk of systemic crisis."
"China's private-sector companies of all sizes, even large ones, had long faced challenges in obtaining loans. But the credit squeeze on them this spring has been particularly painful. 'It's very bad, and we see not just small and medium-sized enterprises defaulting but even big companies defaulting,"
"With the Trump administration Friday announcing $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods - supposedly with a list of an additional $100 billion ready to go - and China retaliating with its own tariffs on $34 billion, there are concerns for an escalating trade war. Returning to the potential for an upside dollar dislocation, China is today unusually financially and economically vulnerable."
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...t-fallacy.html
The trade war is getting off to a running start.

"something remarkable happened last week: the entire global bond curve just inverted for the first time since just before the financial crisis erupted."
"As for the timing, well it's troubling to say the least: it did so just before the last two bubbles burst."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ay-be-imminent

6/17 Trump’s tariffs add $9,000 to the price of a new home – Idaho Statesman
6/17 A 1-bedroom in Oregon is now unaffordable for the average worker – OPB
6/17 Higher home, mortgage prices mean first-time buyers pay 19% more – Dallas

The hot money continues to chip away at affordability.
https://twocents.lifehacker.com/youl...ent-1826831468
"Today, the migration patterns are purely economic, but they are inspired by socialism whereby they need only show up and receive automatic income and benefits."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...are-migration/

"A national debt is the single greatest way we transfer wealth among citizens as well as nations. I kept yelling on Capitol Hill that Quantitative Easing would fail, it would not “stimulate” the economy for a very simple reason. The assumption that the Fed would buy 30-year bonds and then the banks would lend into real estate with lower interest rates was crazy."
Of course it was crazy. The BRICs put a roof on wages and therefore, a roof on discretionary spending.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...eans-anything/
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  #2822  
Old 06-19-2018, 03:00 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Location: L.A. Ca.
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VZ oil,,, China and American oil,,, CORRUPTION

Norges, biggest sovereign wealth fund, takes tough line on corruption ...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/.../bigge...-line-on-corru...
Some leaders are corrupt, some aren't. Unfortunately for Malaysia, there is at least $100 billion missing.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...goldman-sachs/

VZ can't pay the oil engineers but, it spends $ 3.6 million a day for spoiled daughters.
Report: Hugo Chavez's Daughter Is Richest Person in Venezuela
VZ doesn't have enough money to buy the light crude needed to blend with it's "axle grease". In addition, the State spent LOTS of money on welfare and, almost nothing on it's oil workers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ons-fall-apart

China is the largest customer for U.S. crude......................................
"On Friday, Beijing threatened to impose tariffs on US energy products in response to $50 billion in tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Such tariffs would inhibit Chinese refiners from buying US crude imports, potentially crashing US energy markets "
https://sputniknews.com/world/201806...ff-US-suprise/
Trump is a RE mogul. He has to depend on his advisors to let him know about possible fallout to his planed decisions. Sabers were rattled at North Korea and,,,, China sent bombers to patrol Taiwan. Is everybody in the State debt so stupid that they didn't foresee that?
Trump sanctions China to cause a reduction in the trade deficit. Did State totally ignore the possible repercussions?

Something you knew all along, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...new-poll-finds
Derivatives were created to generate fees when banking became TOO crowded. It is still too crowded. Not only that, it is just an information business.
https://mrtopstep.com/bank-ceos-says...k-employees-2/
Super Mario said that he is going to turn left AND right at the same time.
"We are simply at the end of the road of this complete insanity. So buckle up. Get ready for the ride of a lifetime and make sure you keep your hands and feet safely inside the vehicle. Is the ECB risking a total collapse in public confidence when they discover you cannot keep rates artificially low and end QE simultaneously?"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...lly-ending-qe/
While I might advise that you buy more popcorn, that does not mean that I am insensitive to the plight of Europeans who will see millions of deaths and a drastic reduction of your living standards. All I can do,,, I do here on this blog.

Some of the big money is moving into gold.
https://www.caseyresearch.com/these-...l-chaos-hedge/
6/18 Mattis: Puttin is trying to “undermine America’s moral authority” – Caitlin Johnstone
The awful slice of America that is blowing up the world has ZERO moral authority.
Hopeless European millennials.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/faile...rope-populist/
Hopeful American millennials, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-student-loans

6/18 Consumers stubbornly cling to cash after multiple hacks and system outages – WS
Change "stubborn" to intelligent.
6/18 Emerging Asia hit by foreign investor exodus – Bloomberg Plan "A"
6/18 Financial hole for SS and Medicare even deeper than experts say – MW
Yep SS is bust. Actually, NOT true. SS has a whole pile of Non-negotiable Treasury bonds that it received for it's cash. The cash was desperately needed to make wars in the ME that were necessary for our protection.
6/18 Fed’s Dudley complains unemployment is too low, rate hikes needed – Mish
95 million of working age who are not in the labor force. A crippling skills-gap that can't realistically be overcome. Just wait til a couple hundred thousand bankers hit the pavement.
Plant a garden AND buy more popcorn.
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  #2823  
Old Today, 04:21 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
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Trade war NOT predictable

The entertainment du jour is the trade war. Bretton Woods made the dollar the reserve, anchored to gold. The anchor chain was broken. If a State wanted to sock away reserves, it had to have dollars. It could only get dollars by manufacturing stuff and, undercutting American prices. Under this kind of competition, manufacturing couldn't compete and, left the country.
If America lays on enough tariffs, American manufacturers could be competitive again. 50% of the cost of everything that you buy is for finance so, price competitiveness will be very elusive. Besides that, the bankers use your savings to buy up EVERYTHING. Then, you buy it from the bankers.
The Smoot-Hayley Act raised tariffs and, reduced world trade by 50%. Nobody won.

Blankfein: Trump's Trade Threats Are A Savvy "Negotiating Strategy"
China cuts US investments by 92% amid escalating trade war

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4h-IakgKik&t=1431s

"Approximately 88 years ago (in June 1930), American lawmakers did exactly what the U.S. is doing today – they enacted the now infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 1930 – and raised tariffs on hundreds of goods imported into the U.S. According to one quantitative assessment, these measures reduced U.S imports by over 40%, sending the world’s trading order into a tail spin. "
"Based on 2017 steel import figures compiled by the U.S International Trade Administration, the top eight economies (in order of magnitude) most likely to be disrupted by the 2018 steel tariffs include:

Canada
Brazil
South Korea
Mexico
Russia
Turkey
Japan
Taiwan
Canada: Prepare for a bloody trade war!

EU To Launch Counter-Tariffs Against US On Friday
India Prepares Duty Hikes On More Goods In Retaliation Over Trump US Tariffs
German Automakers Call For End To EU-US Car Import Tax - Reports

Escalating Trade War Between Trump US & China Sends Shock Waves Through Markets
'Belligerent' US Trade Policy Toward China Will Damage Iconic American Brands


"With over $50 trillion in non financial domestic debt, every 100 basis point ( 1/10 of a percent ) increase in rates produces a $500 billion economic drag."
The yield curve continues to flatten – underscoring the fragility of domestic economic growth.
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/kass-risk-happens-fast/
"The new US tariff will be imposed if China goes ahead and implements its new tariff on American goods, announced last week, the White House said, adding that trade between the two countries “must be much more equitable.” China is currently running a $376 billion surplus in trade with the US, according to the White House.

If Beijing choses to continue its tit-for-tat tariff policy with the US, Washington will impose further tariffs on imports from China in addition to the $200 billion announced, the statement warned."
"French President Emmanuel Macron called the tariffs “not only criminal, but a mistake,” adding, “Economic nationalism leads to war.”
So, the frogs are going to invade.
"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariffs “totally unacceptable” and an “affront” to Canada, describing the announcement from Washington as “a turning point in the Canada-US relationship.”
Said the wanker with no leverage.

Italy is in very bad shape, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ueled-populist
Depending on how you view the numbers, America has a $1.4 trillion trade surplus.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...trade-tariffs/
Mixing tariffs with duties, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...y-get-revenue/

"ANSWER: The Government always thinks that throwing more money at something make it better. I have NEVER seen where that has EVER corrected any such trend. The problem lies in the total mismanagement. Governments are simply incapable of operating even a bubblegum machine. They completely fail to understand the economy, human nature, or society as a whole. The only way to actually correct such a problem is to privatize. That installs actual management and employees must actually perform. Government unions demand benefits and they negotiate with themselves. This is why the entire socialist agenda is collapsing"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...he-sixth-wave/

Russia dumped a bunch of U.S. sovereign debt. This raised bond yields. Remember that everything crashes if bond yields go north of about 3.5 %
This seems to have been a test-run to see how weak the bond market is. China has lots of bonds that they could dump if they thought it necessary.
https://sputniknews.com/us/201806191...s-debt-dollar/
Currency wars and inflation-targeting always take money from the worker.
https://antoniusaquinas.com/2018/06/...rican-workers/
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Last edited by Danny B; Today at 04:31 AM. Reason: Mo info
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