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Old 06-17-2018, 06:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trade war, pensions, fertility,,,, wobbly China

The upper loop of the economy is at all time highs. Here is a graph of trade flows in real stuff.
It has turned down quite a bit. This is BEFORE tariffs, sanctions and trade wars have show their effect.

" in just 16 years (1960–1976), fertility in the US dropped from 3.65 births per woman to only 1.76. "
"How can a shrinking group of working-age people support a growing number of retirement-age people? The easy and quick illustration to this question is to talk about the number of workers supporting each Social Security recipient. In 1940, it was 160. By 1950 it was 16.5. By 1960 it was 5.1. I think you can see a trend here. As the chart below shows, it will be 2.3 by 2030."

"How can one worker support two or three retirees while still working and trying to raise a family with mortgage payments, food, healthcare, etc.? Obviously, they can’t, at least not forever. But no one wants to admit that, so we just ignore reality. "

"States' pension funds have nearly $4 trillion of stock investments, but somehow haven't benefited from soaring stock prices.

A new report by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) shows why this is true. It notes that the unfunded liabilities of state and local pension plans jumped $433 billion in the last year to more than $6 trillion."
"This means in six years, without the $6 trillion being somehow restored (magic beans?), pension underfunding will be at $8.4 trillion or thereabouts, even if nothing else goes wrong."
"I noted last week in Debt Clock Ticking that the total US debt-to-GDP ratio is now well over 300%. That’s government, corporate, financial, and household debt combined."

"you find that the US governments from the top to bottom owe over $30 trillion, which is well over 150% of GDP. Technically, we have blown right past the Italian debt bubble. And that’s not even including unfunded Social Security and healthcare benefits, which some estimates have well over $100 trillion"
The Pension Train Has No Seat Belts | Mauldin Economics

"It is my strong view that nations that aspire to solve their shrinking population problem must first abolish their interest-based monetary and financial system and replace it with systems that are based on risk-sharing principles."
"I hope Europe, the US, Japan, Singapore and others that are faced with shrinking population problem would replace their interest-based monetary system with interest-free systems to ‘save’ their populations and unique cultures. In this regard, Islamic finance comes to mind and indeed is something all nations can consider."
The Islamic banking system COULD be a positive solution to the current system. It has been forcefully stamped out whenever possible.

"I would argue that China's runaway mortgage finance and apartment Bubbles at this late stage of the cycle significantly increase the risk of systemic crisis."
"China's private-sector companies of all sizes, even large ones, had long faced challenges in obtaining loans. But the credit squeeze on them this spring has been particularly painful. 'It's very bad, and we see not just small and medium-sized enterprises defaulting but even big companies defaulting,"
"With the Trump administration Friday announcing $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods - supposedly with a list of an additional $100 billion ready to go - and China retaliating with its own tariffs on $34 billion, there are concerns for an escalating trade war. Returning to the potential for an upside dollar dislocation, China is today unusually financially and economically vulnerable."
The trade war is getting off to a running start.

"something remarkable happened last week: the entire global bond curve just inverted for the first time since just before the financial crisis erupted."
"As for the timing, well it's troubling to say the least: it did so just before the last two bubbles burst."

6/17 Trump’s tariffs add $9,000 to the price of a new home – Idaho Statesman
6/17 A 1-bedroom in Oregon is now unaffordable for the average worker – OPB
6/17 Higher home, mortgage prices mean first-time buyers pay 19% more – Dallas

The hot money continues to chip away at affordability.
"Today, the migration patterns are purely economic, but they are inspired by socialism whereby they need only show up and receive automatic income and benefits."

"A national debt is the single greatest way we transfer wealth among citizens as well as nations. I kept yelling on Capitol Hill that Quantitative Easing would fail, it would not “stimulate” the economy for a very simple reason. The assumption that the Fed would buy 30-year bonds and then the banks would lend into real estate with lower interest rates was crazy."
Of course it was crazy. The BRICs put a roof on wages and therefore, a roof on discretionary spending.
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Old 06-19-2018, 03:00 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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VZ oil,,, China and American oil,,, CORRUPTION

Norges, biggest sovereign wealth fund, takes tough line on corruption ...
Some leaders are corrupt, some aren't. Unfortunately for Malaysia, there is at least $100 billion missing.

VZ can't pay the oil engineers but, it spends $ 3.6 million a day for spoiled daughters.
Report: Hugo Chavez's Daughter Is Richest Person in Venezuela
VZ doesn't have enough money to buy the light crude needed to blend with it's "axle grease". In addition, the State spent LOTS of money on welfare and, almost nothing on it's oil workers.

China is the largest customer for U.S. crude......................................
"On Friday, Beijing threatened to impose tariffs on US energy products in response to $50 billion in tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Such tariffs would inhibit Chinese refiners from buying US crude imports, potentially crashing US energy markets "
Trump is a RE mogul. He has to depend on his advisors to let him know about possible fallout to his planed decisions. Sabers were rattled at North Korea and,,,, China sent bombers to patrol Taiwan. Is everybody in the State debt so stupid that they didn't foresee that?
Trump sanctions China to cause a reduction in the trade deficit. Did State totally ignore the possible repercussions?

Something you knew all along, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...new-poll-finds
Derivatives were created to generate fees when banking became TOO crowded. It is still too crowded. Not only that, it is just an information business.
Super Mario said that he is going to turn left AND right at the same time.
"We are simply at the end of the road of this complete insanity. So buckle up. Get ready for the ride of a lifetime and make sure you keep your hands and feet safely inside the vehicle. Is the ECB risking a total collapse in public confidence when they discover you cannot keep rates artificially low and end QE simultaneously?"
While I might advise that you buy more popcorn, that does not mean that I am insensitive to the plight of Europeans who will see millions of deaths and a drastic reduction of your living standards. All I can do,,, I do here on this blog.

Some of the big money is moving into gold.
6/18 Mattis: Puttin is trying to “undermine America’s moral authority” – Caitlin Johnstone
The awful slice of America that is blowing up the world has ZERO moral authority.
Hopeless European millennials.
Hopeful American millennials, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-student-loans

6/18 Consumers stubbornly cling to cash after multiple hacks and system outages – WS
Change "stubborn" to intelligent.
6/18 Emerging Asia hit by foreign investor exodus – Bloomberg Plan "A"
6/18 Financial hole for SS and Medicare even deeper than experts say – MW
Yep SS is bust. Actually, NOT true. SS has a whole pile of Non-negotiable Treasury bonds that it received for it's cash. The cash was desperately needed to make wars in the ME that were necessary for our protection.
6/18 Fed’s Dudley complains unemployment is too low, rate hikes needed – Mish
95 million of working age who are not in the labor force. A crippling skills-gap that can't realistically be overcome. Just wait til a couple hundred thousand bankers hit the pavement.
Plant a garden AND buy more popcorn.
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Old 06-21-2018, 04:21 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trade war NOT predictable

The entertainment du jour is the trade war. Bretton Woods made the dollar the reserve, anchored to gold. The anchor chain was broken. If a State wanted to sock away reserves, it had to have dollars. It could only get dollars by manufacturing stuff and, undercutting American prices. Under this kind of competition, manufacturing couldn't compete and, left the country.
If America lays on enough tariffs, American manufacturers could be competitive again. 50% of the cost of everything that you buy is for finance so, price competitiveness will be very elusive. Besides that, the bankers use your savings to buy up EVERYTHING. Then, you buy it from the bankers.
The Smoot-Hayley Act raised tariffs and, reduced world trade by 50%. Nobody won.

Blankfein: Trump's Trade Threats Are A Savvy "Negotiating Strategy"
China cuts US investments by 92% amid escalating trade war


"Approximately 88 years ago (in June 1930), American lawmakers did exactly what the U.S. is doing today – they enacted the now infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 1930 – and raised tariffs on hundreds of goods imported into the U.S. According to one quantitative assessment, these measures reduced U.S imports by over 40%, sending the world’s trading order into a tail spin. "
"Based on 2017 steel import figures compiled by the U.S International Trade Administration, the top eight economies (in order of magnitude) most likely to be disrupted by the 2018 steel tariffs include:

South Korea
Canada: Prepare for a bloody trade war!

EU To Launch Counter-Tariffs Against US On Friday
India Prepares Duty Hikes On More Goods In Retaliation Over Trump US Tariffs
German Automakers Call For End To EU-US Car Import Tax - Reports

Escalating Trade War Between Trump US & China Sends Shock Waves Through Markets
'Belligerent' US Trade Policy Toward China Will Damage Iconic American Brands

"With over $50 trillion in non financial domestic debt, every 100 basis point ( 1/10 of a percent ) increase in rates produces a $500 billion economic drag."
The yield curve continues to flatten – underscoring the fragility of domestic economic growth.
"The new US tariff will be imposed if China goes ahead and implements its new tariff on American goods, announced last week, the White House said, adding that trade between the two countries “must be much more equitable.” China is currently running a $376 billion surplus in trade with the US, according to the White House.

If Beijing choses to continue its tit-for-tat tariff policy with the US, Washington will impose further tariffs on imports from China in addition to the $200 billion announced, the statement warned."
"French President Emmanuel Macron called the tariffs “not only criminal, but a mistake,” adding, “Economic nationalism leads to war.”
So, the frogs are going to invade.
"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariffs “totally unacceptable” and an “affront” to Canada, describing the announcement from Washington as “a turning point in the Canada-US relationship.”
Said the wanker with no leverage.

Italy is in very bad shape, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ueled-populist
Depending on how you view the numbers, America has a $1.4 trillion trade surplus.
Mixing tariffs with duties, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...y-get-revenue/

"ANSWER: The Government always thinks that throwing more money at something make it better. I have NEVER seen where that has EVER corrected any such trend. The problem lies in the total mismanagement. Governments are simply incapable of operating even a bubblegum machine. They completely fail to understand the economy, human nature, or society as a whole. The only way to actually correct such a problem is to privatize. That installs actual management and employees must actually perform. Government unions demand benefits and they negotiate with themselves. This is why the entire socialist agenda is collapsing"

Russia dumped a bunch of U.S. sovereign debt. This raised bond yields. Remember that everything crashes if bond yields go north of about 3.5 %
This seems to have been a test-run to see how weak the bond market is. China has lots of bonds that they could dump if they thought it necessary.
Currency wars and inflation-targeting always take money from the worker.

Last edited by Danny B; 06-21-2018 at 04:31 AM. Reason: Mo info
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Old 06-21-2018, 04:28 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Hot money in RE

The various CBs created an extra $ 200 trillion. They took impaired loans and put them in a "bad bank". This strategy was supposed to take bad loans off the books of the banks so that they could continue to issue new loans. There was little demand for new credit from people who were credit-worthy. So, they made loans to people who were not credit-worthy.
$200 trillion was just too much to be absorbed into the productive system so, it was circulated in the upper loop of the economy. Unfortunately, much of the money flowed into anything that could be considered a store-of-value. It blew out the price on everything that ran in a short-term cycle. Commodities peaked and crashed. There is one area that has a long-term cycle. Real Estate. The hot money that was conjured up in the upper loop was searching for a home that appeared safe. RE is a long term cycle so, it appeared safe.

Here is a comprehensive article on the price of housing. I’ll do a few excerpts but, you should read the whole thing.
"Since 1960, renters’ median earnings have gone up 5 percent while rents have spiked 61 percent; homeowners earn 50 percent more while home prices have gone up 112 percent.
The Harvard study noted that the cities with the greatest increases in housing costs also have the greatest increases in homelessness. Expensive housing encourages private equity firms and other investors to buy up apartment buildings and evict the current residents.
But wait, it gets worse: The Harvard study found that the fastest rise in home prices is at the low end of the market. “Cheap” homes, or those selling for less than 75 percent of the median price, are appreciating at twice the rate of high-end homes.

The reason for this appears to be that low-cost housing is simply disappearing from the market. Since 1990, more than 2.5 million apartments renting for less than $800 per month have been demolished, upgraded into luxury condos or converted into hotels or offices. Between 2010 and 2017, prices in poor urban neighborhoods rose 50 percent faster than in rich neighborhoods,

"Before the recession, America built around 1.1 million new homes per year. In its best year since, the country built just 849,000. "
VERY strange,, maybe it is because houses are unaffordable.
"America also has a nationwide shortage of construction workers. According to the Harvard report, building firms have 200,000 job openings, the highest number in a decade. And yet, despite persistent labor shortages, construction worker wages are rising slower than the rest of the private sector."
"“In a lot of cities,” he said, “the market can’t supply housing for people making less than six figures.”
"But here, too, the news is grim. In 1988, just one city in America had homes that cost, on average, more than six times the annual median income. Today, 22 of them do. "
Keep in mind that the number of owner occupied houses hasn't gone up in decades. Everything is bought up by speculators who are close the the free-money spigot.

6/21 American cities are so expensive that they risk ‘demographic bomb’ – BI
6/21 LA home prices surge past new record – Patch
6/21 A $24 million tear down on Nantucket? Island prices breaking records – CNBC
6/21 15 US cities where home prices are skyrocketing – CNBC
6/20 Home price insanity: $2.6 million for 900 square feet – CBS

"The headline figure is striking: global debt has hit a new high of 225% of world GDP, exceeding the previous record of 213% in 2009. So, as the IMF points out, there has been no deleveraging at the global level since the 2007-08 financial crisis."
"The IMF’s recommendation to governments is that they should fix the roof while the sun is shining: accumulate a fiscal surplus, or at least reduce deficits,"
Yep, raise the snot out of taxes.
"Since the crisis, far tougher capital requirements have been introduced for banks"
And immediately gutted.
"At a time when economic growth is robust almost everywhere, financial markets are relaxed about debt sustainability."
Growth in the sector of the economy that produces NOTHING is robust.

In the Baaken field they are flaring off natural gas to the tune of 1,800, 000 Bbl. equivalent of oil every day. They don't have the infrastructure to do anything else.
6/21 Fed Chair Powell calls case ‘strong’ for more interest rate hikes – CNBC
6/21 Americans still aren’t saving, despite the booming economy – Bloomberg
I'm glad to hear that everything is booming. Before long, we are going to hear one BIG BOOM.
The feces-for-brains at the FED look at the extremely low unemployment rate and conclude that the economy is close to overheating. The 95 million Americans of working age who are not in the labor force evidently isn't an important consideration. They just want to raise rates to attract capital inflows AND save the pension funds. So, what can we expect for results?
"With over $50 trillion in non financial domestic debt, every 100 basis point ( 1/10 of a percent ) increase in rates produces a $500 billion economic drag."
So, 2/10s of a percent rise will extract and extra $1trillion in debt service. The FED is raising rates to try to accumulate "ammunition" to fight the next recession. This isn't ammunition that they are accumulating. It is "fissionable" debt that they are stacking up in one place. It is increasing at the rate of $1.5 trillion a year. At some point, it will reach critical mass.

The FED funds rate has been dropping in tandem with the birth rate. This is all tied to the consumptive rate of the 16---62 year olds.

Keep in mind that all GOV is socialist. They attract the corrupt and, the non-producers. They never reduce their predations. Good article.
Global debt in real time.
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Old 06-23-2018, 03:56 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Eurozone debt

The consumer spends less and less. She is tapped out. The actual economy shrinks. Mergers and acquisitions increase. Historically, M&A action increases as the economy falters.
M&A is increasing. The yield curve has inverted. Both of these are indicators of an impending crash. It is hard to say just how much the capital inflows will change the dynamic.

German bankers loaned to Greece knowing that Greeks were perennial deadbeats. When Greece couldn't pay, Merkel and Schäuble bailed out the banks embraced the Greek debt as being debt owed to the German State. Germany put Greece over a barrel and rogered them well. This has been profitable.

"They suffer from low profitability and carry an estimated total bad loan exposure of around 759 billion euro, which accounts for roughly 30 per cent of their equity capital."
"While US bank stocks are up 24 per cent since the beginning of 2006, the index for euro-area bank stocks is still down by around 70 per cent. Perhaps most notably, ’Germany’s two largest banks, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, have lost 85 and 94 per cent, respectively, of their market capitalization."
Of course they lost capitalization. What would you do if your bank faced a "bail-in"? America has plenty of bad loans but, they are "hidden" in the GSEs like Freddy and Fanny. The bad loans will blow the private banks in Europe and, the public debt in America.
The Central Banks removed ALL moral hazard and financial risk. Did it ever occur to them that this might cause bankers to run wild?

"Then there's a horrendously unexpected crash. The status quo panics, and the Federal Reserve and the Savior State rush to provide massive stimulus--tax cuts, tax rebates, more federal spending, lower interest rates, bond buying, easier lending standards, increased liquidity, and so on.

Asset prices respond to these constant injections of uppers very predictably: they leap higher as participants realize the "Fed put" is in place: the central bank will not let markets decline, so the profitable strategy is "buy the dip."

"Note that the quantity of stimulus required to "fix" the markets increases exponentially every bubble-pop. Where a sharp decline in interest rates and conventional monetary stimulus stopped the 2002 crash in its tracks and reinflated asset bubbles, the next bubble-pop crash in 2008-09 required an unprecedented range of unconventional stimulus to stop the crash and reinflate the era's third asset bubble: zero interest rates (never done before), $4 trillion in bond and mortgage purchases (never done before), ending mark-to-market pricing of financial instruments (never done before) and unlimited liquidity to the banking sector and financial markets (never done before). "

"Even if we look at the hatred poured on Trump, this is indicative of how civilization collapses. It does not matter if you agree or disagree with Trump. This sort of hatred and the personal attacks, especially led by CNN, is so destructive I fear what comes AFTER Trump. There is absolutely NO POSSIBLE WAY that anyone who would really try to help the situation will come to power. CNN has guaranteed that nobody in the right mind would dare to be president."

To the readers on the continent, you're going to get hit the worst. Brussels keeps printing to keep the European version of the blob-State well paid. Millions of paper pushers depend on the printing press.
"Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet never exceeded 25% of US GDP. "
No mention of the back-door money from the PPT and ESF.
"To put €4.5 trillion in perspective, it is over 40% of the annual GDP of the 19 countries comprising the Eurozone (€11.35 trillion)."
"The ECB’s balance sheet has grown by 8.9% since this time last year, far faster than the overall Eurozone economy (2.4%),
"and by an amount far greater than the combined GDP growth of the entire Eurozone (€372 vs €278 billion). In other words, the ECB has been printing money and buying Eurozone debt roughly 33% faster than the economy of the Eurozone has been growing. As if that weren’t enough, the ECB bought significantly more bonds in the last year than the entire increase in the national debts of all the Eurozone countries combined in 2017."
"and by an amount far greater than the combined GDP growth of the entire Eurozone (€372 vs €278 billion). .

"Both public and private emerging market debt raised money in dollars. A 2% increase in interest rates could spark a sharp rise in the proportion of emerging market corporate debt issues at risk of default. This is true especially in Brazil, Turkey, and India.' 1/2 of the BRICs
The trade war has the potential to completely screw up world trade. As if that isn't enough, Trump wants to revamp GOV.
He wants more efficiency. The State specializes in inefficiency so that it can give jobs to buy votes,,, and hold down crime.

6/22 New Jersey heads for budget clash, possible shutdown – US News
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Old 06-23-2018, 02:48 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Overview from Rickards,,, oil-yes,,, SDRs-no

Jim Rickards has a LOT of experience in world capital markets. Here, he writes a very good article focused on defaults in emerging markets. It is well worth a read.
"Once that happens, even the stronger countries such as China lose reserves rapidly and end up in default. In a worst case, a full-scale global liquidity crisis commences, this time worse than 2008."
"The IMF will soon run out of lending resources and will have to pass the hat among the richer members. But the Europeans will have their own problems, and the U.S. under President Trump is likely to reply, “America First,” and decline to participate in bailing out the EMs with U.S. taxpayer funds.

At that point, the IMF may have to resort to printing trillions of dollars in special drawing rights (SDRs) to reliquify a panicked world. SDRs are essentially world money. Elites are working behind the scenes to ultimately replace the dollar with SDRs as the leading reserve currency."

These "elites" who are hard at work are all in the West.
The crash is definitely coming. The IMF hopes to create megatons of SDRs. This will be our new "one world" currency.
There is a slight possibility that this scheme would work if America and the West did not have to import anything. There is a slight possibility that this would work if America did not need markets for exports.
More to the point, the IMF plans to have everybody accept SDRs for payment of oil. NOT GOING TO FLY.

Combined Compliance For OPEC, Non-OPEC Hits 86% | OilPrice.com
https://oilprice.com › Energy › Oil Prices

"Congress Is Considering A Bill Enabling Anti-Trust Litigation Against OPEC"
Do you see the coming tug-o-war? Russia, China and Iran are buying up all the oil,,, blending it and, brokering it to consumers.

Russia Looks to Strengthen Ties with Mexico as NAFTA ... - PanAm Post
https://panampost.com › North America › Mexico
Targeted by Trump, Mexico Courts Putin's Russia, Xi's China | Civic ...

Canada is pissed off. Mexico is pissed off and looking to Russia. Venezuela oil production is falling fast. Our close-in oil suppliers are not looking so good.
The East would rather chew barbed wire than accept SDRs from the great satan. Pox Americana is going around the world trying to whip everybody into line using sanctions, fines and lawsuits. The deep State would prefer to also use the military but, it has been gutted by corruption from the MIC.
Immediate implementation of the FUSOR + our existing oil supplies would allow us to survive. But, our export markets would still be moribund.

The FUSOR won't get immediate implementation.
The coming battle is between gold and the SDR. The US/IMF would like to strongarm Russia and Iran into accepting SDRs for oil.
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Old 06-23-2018, 10:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Yield curve,,,, slowly melting

Well, there is a lot going on. Emerging market debt is on a slow boil as interest rates rise. Their debt just becomes too expensive to service. At the same time, domestic U.S. debt is on a fast boil. 2/10 of a percent rise in interest rates claws out an additional $1 trillion in interest charges from the economy.
" the ECB has been printing money and buying Eurozone debt roughly 33% faster than the economy of the Eurozone has been growing."
Eurozone debt is the deep-fat fryer, not the hot-pot.
"Ten-year Treasury yields fell three bps to 2.90% (up 49bps). Long bond yields slipped a basis point to 3.04% (up 30bps)"
This is the feared inverted yield curve. You can see that it isn't yet inverted,,, just close. When Russia recently dumped a whole slew of bonds, it drove up the 10 year. That pushed things closer to inverted. You can also see why GOV has to lie about price inflation. At the true 10% price inflation, the long-bond is a big loser.

"With such complexity in the world, central bankers should be disinclined from grand experiments. A decade of central bank rate manipulation, "money" printing and market intervention has ensured deep structural changes in the marketplace."
They didn't fix anything because they don't have a clue of how the system works. All they cared about was saving the banks,,,, at any cost. Well, the cost is here and, they are not going to like it.

"Thursday from Zero Hedge: "This Is The Greatest Short-Squeeze In History." The Goldman Sachs Most Short (50 highest short interest names above $1bn) is up 18.8% y-t-d. From May 3rd intraday lows, the GS Most Short has surged 20%"
These are people betting on a crash.

You Brits are going to get blown out of the water,,,, at the same time that you blow up the EU. Good thing that you have your own currency. The Irish are getting revenge for the potato famine.
Here is a graph of the DOW. https://deviantinvestor.com/wp-conte...d-image-9.jpeg
Here is a good graph on the breakout of interest rates.
"The US government has borrowed and increased official debt an average of 8.8% per year since 1913. "

6/23 Europe hits back at Trumps tariffs as trade tensions mount – Bloomberg
6/23 China moves to quell systemic bond risks after wave of defaults – Bloomberg

The tariffs are going to do a lot of damage.
6/23 Water wars: India facing “worst crisis in its history” – Zero Hedge
Pakistan: Pakistan may soon have world's third largest nuke stockpile ...
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com › News › Defence

In Kashmir, Pakistan and India race to tap the Himalayas | GulfNews.com
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Old 06-24-2018, 05:14 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trade wars, playing chicken,,,chicken in Hormuz,,, multilateral world

Blankfein: Trump's Trade Threats Are A Savvy "Negotiating Strategy"
Nope, this is like beating the snot out of your wife. You can't undo it.
This unfolding trade war shows just how ignorant American negotiators are. Many things are produced in one place and, assembled in another. Raw materials could be sourced anywhere. Capital some place else. The Chinese put a tariff on pork. The largest American pork producer is owned by the Chinese.

U.S. corporations moved manufacturing to China to take advantage of low-cost labor. These US Corporations then retain the enhanced profit margins from the low cost manufacturing in offshore tax havens to evade US Corporate taxes.
Many also don't understand that the bulk of the "Trade deficit" with China comprises the import into the US of US brands such as Apple and many others. There is a lack of understanding that even such imports of US brands are still IMPORTS!!
China is not the problem but US Corporations. And they will NOT onshore manufacturing if a full trade war breaks out with China but simply shift manufacturing to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia etc.

"the US currently imposes a 2.5% tariff on imported passenger cars"
"EU imposes a 10% tariff on all imported U.S. cars"
"Not long after Trump's tweet, the European Union vowed it was prepared to retaliate immediately should the tariffs be imposed, saying it would continue tit-for-tat escalation in its trade dispute with the U.S. "
"Earlier in the week, the EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on €2.8 billion ($3.3 billion) of American products "
"Europe is convinced that Trump would have no choice but to reverse direction once there is sufficient outcry from either politicians, business or if the market itself were to crash:"
There is little appreciation for the fact that; when the markets crash, they won't get up again.
"That suggests that some of the tariffs may indeed have to take effect (they can always be rescinded afterwords). All that means is that there's a greater risk for escalation in the trade dispute and a more severe market selloff."
The markets can not survive a big selloff.
The article goes to great length to show that the effects of a full-blown trade war would be minimal.

Game of Chicken: US vs China on Tariffs
So, just how much is this trade war worth at the moment?
Jerome Powell is Playing “Chicken” With $10 Trillion in $USD Shorts
"Jerome Powell has emphasized that he is more concerned with the real economy than the financial markets.
Put another way, the Powell Fed, unlike the Bernanke or Yellen Feds before it, is willing to sacrifice stocks in the name of normalizing monetary policy provided the economy can withstand it.
As a result of this, the Powell Fed intends to continue with its rate hikes as well as the increase in QT (we go to $50 billion per month in July),"
Here is a graph of what QT has done to Brazil.

"there is a significant risk that the markets might actually enter a free fall. Powell is playing a dangerous game. "
It seems to me that Powell is depending on capital inflows to prop up American markets.
Evidently, he has turned a blind eye to corporate debt.
Evidently, he has turned a blind eye to the EMs defaulting to American banks.
Evidently, he has turned a blind eye to the looming collapse of the EU banking system.
Evidently, he has turned a blind eye to the fact that China will soon have to devalue. A minimum negative 10% to u.S. markets.

"Iran could effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. It is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.

Tankers moving oil from Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates all have to pass through the strait. That translates into roughly 35% of the world’s oil traded by sea.

Nearly $2 billion worth of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. It’s the most critical oil choke point in the world.

In the event of an all-out war, Iran would quickly shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It’s been blatantly clear about this.

Credible studies have shown that—in a best-case scenario for the US Navy—Iran could seal off the Strait with sea mines and asymmetrical warfare techniques for at least a month before the US could reopen it. The Pentagon itself has admitted as much."
Not in a month,,, not in a year. The Suez was closed for 7? years.

"In one week President Trump confirmed that his first concern is the United States, that he has what may be a workable vision for its place in the world, and he loathes globalism and the globalists."
"It’s hard to say if Trump’s dislike of Angela Merkel is business—she’s one of the world’s most visible and vociferous proponent of globalism, or personal—it’s always her way or the highway."
"That Trump is willing to blow off Europe suggests that he may be blowing off empire. "
"As global competition moves from military to economic, Trump is also going to make sure he tilts, as much as possible, the rules of that competition back towards the US. There are the existing trade arrangements with Europe, Canada, and Mexico that he’s willing to blow up, presumably to obtain better arrangements."

"he may get some breathing room to address the intractable second and third realities: the trajectory of US spending and debt, and the fundamentally corrupt government. On the debt, all the breathing room in the world isn’t going to save him. "
most of America’s rulers and its captive media are speaking out against a peace initiative, not on the merits of the initiative itself, but because Donald Trump was one of its initiators.
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Old 06-25-2018, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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How long has this cycle been extended?

How long is the average economic cycle? Well, it averages 10--12 years. The banking system became far too crowded. Everyone was clamoring to rent out their wet-ink money. The tech bubble crashed because everybody was throwing money at enterprises that had no earnings. The housing bubble crashed because everybody was throwing money at borrowers who could not pay it back.
John Hussman writes about how this cycle has become hyper-extended by the free-money FED. He has been very wrong about timing on investments because he was timing the cycle as if it were a normal cycle of 10--12 years. He readily admits as much. NOBODY thought that the FED would inject so much nor, extend the cycle so much. Excellent article if you want a good understanding of where we are in this new, "extended" financial world.

"With just 42 days trading days left until the S&P500 bull market becomes the longer of all time, Morgan Stanley's chief cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, writes that investors are now more sanguine about how much time they have until the next recession than at any point since 2010. "We’re 8 ½ years into an expansion, and many investors finally are finally confident that there is plenty of time left on the clock."
"All this is taking place against a backdrop in which key market elements are vastly different from a year ago"

"Presenting, Bank of America's Charts of Darkness"
This is a good article enumerating the various peaks.

Technical traders has a good article.
Bill Bonner has a questionable article where he speculates that GOV will get rid of both paper currency and the private banking system. I'm doubtful.
ZH claims that China is doing a stealth devaluation of the Yuan as part of the trade war. Keep in mind that; as the dollar goes up, it is much more difficult to service dollar-denominated debt.

Various writers speculate that China could dump it's U.S. treasury debt and crash American markets. This would cause the Yuan to rise when China wants it to fall.

American infrastructure is falling apart. The money goes to the military.
Much of it goes to the safety net also and, that is being steadily cut back. Military spending rises and Social Security spending falls.
Trump is further stirring things up with China.
So, it IS different this time. The economic cycle and the 1/2 cycle have been extended.
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Old 06-26-2018, 01:39 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Military Narcissism,,, privately issued money

Yesterday, I mentioned a stealth devaluation of the Yuan. Today is a different story.
Trump is kicking more a$$ on trade. I think that he is using a weapon that is just too blunt.
The FANG stocks had a great run but, are now correcting

Military budget, (repost), https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...t-2019-w521788
Ron Paul, "Without being technically at war with anyone in particular, the U.S. is dropping a bomb somewhere in the world every 12 minutes, around the clock.
The U.S. has 1,000 military bases scattered across the planet."
"The Pentagon’s own numbers show that it can’t account for $21 trillion. "
"1. The amount of money supposedly in the stock market is $30 trillion.
2. The GDP of the United States is $18.6 trillion."
"“[The July 2016 inspector general] report indicates that unsupported adjustments are the result of the Defense Department’s ‘failure to correct system deficiencies."
" This would explain how Donald Trump’s military can drop well over 100 bombs a day that cost well north of $1 million each.

So why can’t our government also “create” endless money for health care, education, the homeless, veterans benefits and the elderly, "
"Earlier this month, Louisiana sent eviction notices to 30,000 elderly peopleon Medicaid to kick them out of their nursing homes. Yes, a country that can vomit trillions of dollars down a black hole marked “Military” can’t find the money to take care of our poor elderly."
"mainstream corporate media are mouthpieces for the weapons industry. They are friends with benefits of the military-industrial complex. I have seen basically nothing from the mainstream corporate media concerning this mysterious $21 trillion. "

America Suffers From Military Narcissism

the scale of America's military defies sane reason
there are no military solutions to America's imperial dementia
America has no ideological basis for its empire
military culture selects an officer class of defectives
illiterate peasants using IEDs and tunnels easily defeat hyper-expensive weaponry
the Pentagon is corrupt, incompetent and impotent
So, who is leading America around by the nose?

Saving the dollar by kicking Europe off a cliff.
"It should come as little surprise that the same week the Petroyuan was introduced, Trump released a flood of tariffs on Chinese exports – the first in a series of retaliatory efforts we could expect, setting the stage for an all-out tradewar between the world’s two largest economies."
"This article ignores 4 massively important points! ...

1) Since 1913 what we call "the U.S. Dollar" has really been a PRIVATE currency: the "Federal-Reserve Note"(FRN); issued by the PRIVATE Federal-Reserve Banks(owned by the Rothschild family and friends).
2) Under the Breton Woods agreement after WWII, America agreed to exchange U.S. GOVERNMENT gold for PRIVATE currency (the FRN)[1].
3) So the Rothschilds just kept printing up their FRNs and having front-men in the French government trade them in for gold at the US Treasury, then ship the gold to the Rothschild vaults in London and New York.
4) This went on for 25 years until 1971 all the gold in Fort Knox was gone, and Nixon had no choice to put an end to the "gold-standard".

"Yes, but he should have removed the currency-issuing MONOPOLY from ALL PRIVATE hands and restored it to GOVERNMENT hands. The problem is not that currency-issuing is a MONOPOLY, the problem is that currency-issuing is in PRIVATE hands. Currency-issuing needs to be a GOVERNMENT MONOPOLY as mandated in the U.S. Constitution Article I Sec 8: "The CONGRESS shall have power..To coin money" and as proposed in the Occupy Need Act [2])..

The idea that the problem is that currency-issuing is a MONOPOLY, and that the monopoly should be broken up and put into many OTHER PRIVATE hands, is a Libertarian Austrian-School idea, following the teachings of Ludwig Von Mises, the famous Jewish economist funded by the Rothschilds.

This Libertarian doctrine is the Rothschild's last line of defense. If all else fails, and their currency-issuing monopoly be broken up and put into many other PRIVATE hands, they are confident that soon they could own all those other PRIVATE hands, and be back in business as usual, within a few years. On the other hand, should their PRIVATE monopoly become a GOVERNMENT monopoly, all would be lost for them."

The job market,
6/25 China’s central bank frees up US$100 billion in funding as trade war looms – SCMP
They lowered the amount of reserves the banks must hold. Not the smartest manouver when you are trying to devalue your currency at the same time.
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Old 06-26-2018, 02:15 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Hunting taxes to feed the blob State

LOTS of reading. You don't have to read the whole article, just enough to get a general feel for it. The State has the lawbooks, taxing authority and the guns. It attracts the corrupted. It spends without conscience. It is corrupt and, all powerful in it's domain. Why should it concern itself with the problems of the little guy?
"Whenever you add more bureaucracy, that needs to be funded and the net difference falls to the private sector. You can see that despite all the drums and clatter about how the Eurozone would be the largest economy in the world and beat the USA to a pulp, they managed to fall to third place as China has risen to take the second spot."
"The economic growth of Britain peaked the year before they joined the EU. The greater the size of the bureaucracy, the lower the economic growth. This is why I say that socialism is dying. Government is just incompetent and cannot build and grow an economy. "

"The Supreme Court in SOUTH DAKOTA v. WAYFAIR, INC, just handed down the most devastating and unconstitutional rule perhaps in American history in a 5-4 ruling that we will look back upon as the straw that broke the back of the economy. The Supreme Court has totally rejected EVERYTHING that the United States was built upon – No Taxation Without Representation."
"If you fail to collect sales taxes, they will hit you with penalties and interest rates in the 20%+ level that will far exceed the gross sales in those states. This will simply make it IMPOSSIBLE to conduct business nationwide."

"South Dakota v Wayfair demonstrates the hunt for taxes that I have been warning will tear the United States apart and will destroy the economy going forward contributing to the shift in the Financial Capital of the World to China. So if you wanted a REASON for that shift, you now just received it from the Supreme Court."
"It was the Supreme Court which also ruled that they never made an explicit exception, so the IRS can collect it worldwide. Today, the Supreme Court has once again delivered a devastating blow to the US economy long-term."
"The Supreme Court, therefore, OVERRULED two previous decisions in order to help state hunt down taxes."
"Any alteration to those rules with the potential to disrupt the development of such a critical segment of the economy should be undertaken by Congress. The Court should not act on this important question of current economic policy, solely to expiate a mistake it made over 50 years ago.”

Unlike most people, Armstrong has a list of proposed solutions. VERY good article on separation of powers.

(1) Separate judges from the state and clearly establish human rights.
(2) We must end career politicians for every Republican form of government ends in corruption and surrenders to an oligarchy without exception over 6,000 years of recorded history.
(3) There should be qualifications for politicians.
(4) We need some form of government or we end up with anarchy but at the same time, we cannot surrender all rights, privileges, and immunities to the state.
(5) The Majority must be restrained from suppressing the minority be it religion, race, or gender
(6) Only the People should take up positions in the legislative and they should be limited to one-year terms. If they must return to the private sector then they will never enact legislation that they themselves would not want to live under.
(7) No tax may subject a person to paying greater than 10% of their total income annually with state and local governments.
(8) Federal Government must be prohibited from borrowing and its funding should be serviced by the creation of new money.
(9) Any prosecution for a crime MUST be based upon the complaint of a private citizen and not government unless the crime is against government directly.
(10) No one may be imprisoned or have their liberty constrained except for crimes of violence against another.

"Taxes are the root of all evil for this is the confrontation against the people that historically leads to civil unrest and then revolution. The American and French Revolutions were over taxes. "
"will come to a head because governments will never reduce their costs and will always demand more and more taxes from the people until the bubble bursts."

Armstrong, "Our model has been warning is that the bankers are losing control of government and are now becoming their target. While the likelihood of this new legislation coming out of the Senate and over the House may not be so great, nonetheless, this bill illustrates just how desperate the search for money has become. Politicians are the worst enemy of the people for never do they look at their impact upon society and the future. It is always about them and the immediate need – never long-term.

This is the first time in modern history where Capitol Hill has produced powerful members of Congress whom are looking at taking on the Federal Reserve and its member banks. "

More articles;


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Old 06-27-2018, 02:22 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Where are the assets truly parked? Italian debt bomb

Armstrong, "During such period of civil unrest, capital contracts and begins to hoard. This is what caused the German Hyperinflation"
"The 3rd century AD is when we have the most hoards, but they tend to cluster also around civil unrest and civil wars. If people are fearful or uncertain about the future, they do NOT spend and they contract. So the global trend I am highlighting with respect to rising civil unrest is important economically. The fact that this trend is WORLDWIDE, is particularly alarming for it further supports the fact that we are in the Sixth Wave and 2032 will be the generational change of monumental proportions."
Excellent article about the generational shift.

ZH has an article about where the rich park their money. Here is a graph.
You look at the graph and, it seems pretty straightforward and obvious.
But, then you read the comments;

Heros TheSilentMajority Tue, 06/26/2018 - 01:07 Permalink

Actually the US is by far the biggest money laundering center on the planet. Delaware and Nevada corporations can be owned anonymously, which is a strict AML violation. No other OECD country can get away with this bull**** but JewSA. Only the US has all the obscure taxfree loopholes for Trusts and Foundations ala Clinton Foundation, and only the US has the muscle to make the rest of the world recognize them. This article clearly fails to recognize US trusts and foundations with hidden foreign ownership or beneficiaries.

Switzerland has bilateral OECD wealth and income reporting to all the countries in the EU, the US doesn't and refuses to cooperate. EU citizens cannot hide their wealth tax free in Switzerland, they can in the US.

Then there is unilateral FATCA and FBAR reporting to the IRS through type 1 and 2 bilateral agreements forcing any country using the US dollar to provide reporting all all bank customers with US indicia. Now since TCJA there is the unilateral wealth seizure known as the Transfer tax, and all retained earnings for CFC's will subject to GILTI and taxed at 17.5%.

You also fail to consider art markets and real estate as a method for storage and transfer of ill begotten wealth. Offshore ownership of real estate in Florida alone would dwarf Switzerland, and likely Hong Kong and Singapore too."[/I]

In Italy, the left and the right combined to throw out entrenched eurocrats. Merkel got her teeth kicked in, figuratively.
Well, it didn't stop there. Apparently, the Germans took a hint from the Italians.
6/27 Increasing chance CSU aligns with AfD in Bavaria, completely splitting Germany – Mish

America knows that gold-backed bonds will be introduced to keep the State from doing unlimited currency expansion. America currently exports more gold than it produces.
As many of you know, John Bedini talked about producing elemental gold. In both The Cejka Files and, Petrovoltaics he talks about the subject. I wouldn't be surprised in newly manufactured gold was making it's way into the system.

6/27 Italy’s crunch moment in the bond market – Bloomberg
Italy wants to cancel 250 billion Euros.
5-Star, League want ECB to forgive 250 billion euros of Italy debt: draft ...
This may very well set off a panic in the bond market.
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Old 06-28-2018, 04:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The source of the trade deficit,,, Italy

Paul Craig Roberts;
"When are America’s global corporations and Wall Street going to sit down with President Trump and explain to him that his trade war is not with China but with them. The biggest chunk of America’s trade deficit with China is the offshored production of America’s global corporations. When the corporations bring the products that they produce in China to the US consumer market, the products are classified as imports from China.

"half of US imports from China consist of the offshored production of US corporations. Offshoring is a substantial benefit to US corporations because of much lower labor and compliance costs. Profits, executive bonuses, and shareholders’ capital gains receive a large boost from offshoring.
In other words, to put it in the most simple and clear terms, millions of Americans lost their middle class jobs not because China played unfairly, but because American corporations betrayed the American people and exported their jobs.
In short, the greedy corporate elite have benefited themselves at enormous cost to the American people and to the economic and social stability of the United States.
With the decline in income growth, the US economy stalled. The Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan substituted an expansion in consumer credit for the missing growth in consumer income in order to maintain aggregate consumer demand. Instead of wage increases, Greenspan relied on an increase in consumer debt to fuel the economy.
The Federal Reserve responded to the crash not by bailing out consumer debt but by bailing out the debt of its only constituency—the big banks. The Federal Reserve let little banks fail and be bought up by the big ones, thus further increasing financial concentration. The multi-trillion dollar increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was entirely for the benefit of a handful of large banks.

To be clear, interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions. When interest rates are lowered by the Federal Reserve, which it achieves by purchasing debt instruments, the prices of bonds rise. As the various debt risks move together, lower interest rates raise the prices of all debt instruments, even troubled ones. Raising the prices of debt instruments produced solvent balance sheets for the big banks.
Consequently today the combination of offshoring and Federal Reserve policy has left us a situation in which every aspect of the economy is indebted—consumers, government at all levels, and businesses. A recent Federal Reserve study concluded that Americans are so indebted and so poor that 41 percent of the American population cannot raise $400 without borrowing from family and friends or selling personal possessions.

Normally so much money creation by the Federal Reserve, especially in conjunction with such a high debt level of the US government and also state and local governments, consumers, and businesses, would cause a falling US dollar exchange rate. Why hasn’t this happened?
The FED looks good as long as the other CBs continue to print more than it does.
It is Washington’s hegemony over Japan, Europe, and the UK that protects the American Ponzi scheme. The moment one of these central banks ceases to support the dollar, the others would follow, and the Ponzi scheme would unravel.

Jack Rasmus has an excellent article. You should read all of it.
"By 2013 Italy’s real economy had collapsed by 10% below 2008 GDP levels, and unemployment rose to near 20%. Italy government’s debt to GDP has risen from 100% in 2008 to 130% by 2017,
Italy’s crisis deepened. It borrowed still more, to pay the interest on the debt it had previously borrowed–the interest payments going to the Troika, and from the Troika to the northern Europe banks (especially Germany) from which the Troika in turn raised funds with which to lend to Italy (and other economies during the debt crises in Europe 2010-2015).

To pay for the interest and principal on its rising debt load, Italy was required by the Troika to impose fiscal austerity on its populace. Successive Italian governments extracted the surplus with which to pay its rising debt, causing the Italian economy to stagnate.
"he case of Italy is more dangerous to the Eurozone than was (and is) Greece. Italy’s government debt is 130% of GDP, but its private sector and bank debt is potentially more destabilizing for the Eurozone. No less than $500 billion in non-performing bank loans hang over the private economy in Italy (nearly $2 trillion still Europe wide)"
Now Greeks are taking to the streets in widespread strikes and demonstrations, as another round of Troika-investor austerity and debt is coming up in August 2018.
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Old 06-29-2018, 05:09 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Parallels with the collapse of the USSR

The Syrian military is taking back south western Syria from mercenaries. The U.S. military is NOT attacking as one would expect. I speculated that Trump made a deal to get Russian and Iranian oil when the U.S. could no longer survive on Fracking.
"We should also expect that, once the fracking bubble pops, the US will become dependent on Russian oil and liquefied natural gas, which it will be forced to pay for with gold. (Fracking involves a two-phase combustion process: the first phase burns borrowed money to produce oil and gas; the second burns the oil and the gas.)"

"the United States has told Syrian rebel factions they should not expect military support to help them resist a Russian-backed government offensive to regain opposition-held parts of Syria bordering Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights."
"It's quite possible, it seems to me, that what we'll be seeing over the next several days, is the implementation of the same reconciliation strategy that we saw in Eastern Ghouta, Aleppo and other areas where some so-called rebel fighters will lay down their arms and settle their status with the government, others will be evacuated to Idlib and those that refuse, most likely ISIS, will be destroyed. "

I believe that Trump is being pragmatic. Fracking was all done at a loss. He has to make peace.

" thinking through the (for now) gradually unfolding collapse of the American empire, the collapse of the USSR, which occurred close through three decades ago, continues to perform as a goldmine of useful examples and analogies. Certain events that occurred during the Soviet collapse can serve as useful signposts in the American one, "
"But I feel that we non-experts, armed with the 20/20 hindsight afforded to us by the example of the Soviet collapse, can avoid being similarly blindsided and dumbfounded by the American one.

This is not an academic question: those who gauge it accurately may be able to get the hell out ahead of time, while the lights are mostly still on, while not everybody is walking around in a drug-induced mental haze, and mass shootings and other types of mayhem are still considered newsworthy."
Laissez-fair capitalism is also very much dead, supplanted by crony capitalism nurtured by a thorough melding of Washington and Wall Street elites. Private enterprise is no longer free but concentrated in a handful of giant corporations while about a third of the employed population in the US works in the public sector. The US Department of Defense is the largest single employer in the country as well as in the whole world. About 100 million of working-age able-bodied Americans do not work.

A very useful distinction can be made between collapse avoidance (which is futile; all empires collapse) and worst-case scenario avoidance, which will become, as collapse picks up speed, your most important concern. Your approach may involve fleeing to safer ground, or preparing to survive it where you are. You may choose your own collapse markers and make your own predictions about their timing instead of relying on mine.

"But, having witnessed one collapse, and now witnessing another, the one approach I would definitely not recommend is doing nothing and hoping for the best." Interesting article.

Armstrong, "I was stunned, for it demonstrated to me that the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states was also in part instigated by climate change. When it turns cold, this is when civilization contracts. The bottom of this immediate ECM is January 2020. The forecast for Solar Cycle 24 will bottom around that same time period."

"why is it that the Canadian financial sector is so fraud-ridden that Joe Queenan, writing in Forbes magazine in 1989, nicknamed Vancouver the “Scam Capital of the World”, while shipowners in Greece will regularly do multimillion-dollar deals on a handshake?

We might call this the “Canadian paradox”. There are different kinds of dishonesty in the world. The most profitable kind is commercial fraud, and commercial fraud is parasitical on the overall health of the business sector on which it preys."

6/28 Brexit: bank contracts worth trillions at risk, says finance watchdog – Guardian
The City of London bankers are adamant that Brexit just will not happen. May and her ilk are stalling everywhere they can. They are also heavily into Russia bashing. You can thank the London bankers and Tel Aviv for that one.
May Wants Euro Powers To Extend Anti-Russia Sanctions
The French are very unhappy about the muslim invasion. Macron has a solution.
6/28 Indian central bank intervenes as rupee crashes to record low – ZH
6/28 Trump-Putin summit set for Helsinki, Finland on July 16 – CBS
NATO Allies Fear Unexpected Putin-Trump Summit Announcement

"They" are scared witless that peace will break out.

Reportedly, China plans to devalue their currency. This has historically caused a crash.
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Old 06-29-2018, 03:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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China and a change of course

Draghi says that he will end bond buying from the ECB AND stabilize the Euro. He can't have both. NO possibility.
Evidently, the PBOC is drinking from the same glass of koolaide.
6/29 PBOC signals shift to growth and market stabilization – Bloomberg
The PBOC created more debt than the FED, BOJ and ECB combined. They bought all the growth with wet-ink money. Just the same, growth is slowing. Their workforce is shrinking by 1 million a year. The only way to grow the economy is to grow your markets. They have to drastically raise the standard of living / consumption to grow the markets. China has set the roof on global wages and can't raise the roof. Otherwise, they risk losing market share to low-wage competitors.
Their debt is now more than 300% of GDP. They can't possibly shift to growth with a falling population. Japan proves that. They can't possibility stabilize their markets when their debt bubble is so large.
The impossible trinity (also known as the trilemma, or the unholy trinity) is a concept in international economics which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time: a fixed foreign exchange rate. free capital movement (absence of capital controls) an independent monetary policy.

6/29 Global stocks see biggest loss of investor cash since the financial crisis – CNBC
6/29 Wall Street braces for Trump’s economic colonic – Vanity Fair
6/29 For stocks, the line in the sand has been drawn – Elliott Wave

Wait for that line to be drawn in blood.
6/29 China slowdown deepens on trade tensions and weak credit growth – Bloomberg
6/29 What China’s recent bond defaults mean for investors – Forbes

A little debt is GOOD but;
Hormesis is a term used by toxicologists to refer to a biphasic dose response to an environmental agent characterized by a low dose stimulation or beneficial effect and a high dose inhibitory or toxic effect.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...lar-borrowing/ China has a dollar problem.

Apparently, a republic is a terrible form of GOV. Like communism, they always break the bank.
Analysts make grim projections for U.S. debt - The Japan News
They do it with taxes.
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Old 06-30-2018, 02:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Credit markets, stock markets, death cross and Brexodus

Yesterday, I saw a headline about how the economy was doing so well because bank earnings were up.
April Bank Of America Earnings Jump 51% In Q1; Stock Setting Up
Bank of America hauls in biggest profit ever - CNN Money

OK, that all sounds good. The cheerleaders are hard at work. What is the reality?
June Banks just posted the longest losing streak ever, and it could get a lot worse
"Financials just extended their losing streak into a 13th straight session, a record for the sector.
The XLF financial ETF's sell-off has caused major technical damage to the charts, according to Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.
“Look at that XLF, it’s broken some key support levels,”
“It’s also broken below its 200-day moving average which has given it good support all year this year ,and now it’s broken slightly below the bottom end of its lows for this year,”
more runs to the Treasurys and more flattening of the yield curve,” Schlossberg said on Wednesday’s “Trading Nation.” “All these dynamics are kind of like a toxic brew for the financials.”

The yield curve, which measures the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields, is now at its flattest level since August 2007. The flatter the yield curve, the tighter a bank’s net interest margin, which exacts more pressure on its profitability."

The banks can't make money when the yield curve is flattened.
6/30 Yield curve still flattening relentlessly – Financial Sense
6/30 European yield curve collapses on report ECB considering operation twist – CNBC

6/30 China’s “debt trap” is even worse than we thought – Quartz
The impossible trinity is eating them up.
6/30 Canada makes retaliatory tariffs official: ‘We will not back down’ – CNBC
Canadian and Alaskan railroads are well known for killing a couple hundred moose every year. The moose will never get off the tracks when a train is coming.
6/30 Chinese stocks in bear market, on pace for worst year since 2011 – CNBC
That's what happens when your customers go broke.
6/30 Emerging markets are in a death cross, with another big drop ahead – CNBC
China will devalue their currency and cause a drop in American markets of at least 10--12%. As the dollar "gets stronger", the EM debt will be that much harder to service.

6/30 Debt for US corporations tops $6 trillion – CNBC
YES, and as interest rates rise, this debt won't be serviced.
6/30 Buy bitcoin or gold for the end of the liquidity party? – Goldcore
Unless you have a lot of money, hold paper U.S. dollars.
6/30 US saving rate continues to contract – Zero Hedge
So, we aren't putting money in the banks AND, the flattening of the yield curve is killing their profits. Armstrong makes it very clear that the banks will be closing.

6/30 Danes see record low bank deposit rates – Bloomberg
I wonder why??
"Danish households clocked in at 123.6% of household debt to GDP. These figures from the Bank for International Settlement, gathered up by Trading Economics, cover the period through Q2 2016. So Australians, who were essentially neck-to-neck at the time with the Danes, might have surpassed them by now. But that stunning level of 123.6% of GDP is good for 2nd place, though it's down from 140% just before the Financial Crisis (via Trading "
"And here is Number 1, the most glorious debt slaves of all, the country whose central bank is trying to manipulate down its currency by imposing steeply negative interest rates: Switzerland. "
Look at this rise, https://amp.businessinsider.com/imag...0e-750-364.png
"Nor for the global rankings of debt slaves, where US households squeaked into the ignominious 10th place, barely ahead of Portugal! I mean, come on! Portugal!! "
These are the countries with the biggest debt slaves - Business Insider

6/30 These 7 nation-state backed hacks have put us on the brink of a global cyber war – SB Yes, future paralysis.
6/30 Corporate Brexodus beings as “no-deal” Brexit looms – Wolf Street
This is a BIG deal. The City of London bankers are at war with the ECB. They want to loan to the continent without hindrance. The first shot fired??
"It didn’t take long for the City of London to hit back. On Wednesday the Bank of England warned that unless the EU accepted a temporary permissions regime for financial services, up to £29 trillion worth of financial contracts could be declared void in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Derivatives contracts could come to an end without fresh legislation from the UK and EU, the central bank’s financial policy committee said."


Last edited by Danny B; 06-30-2018 at 06:02 PM. Reason: missing link
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Old 07-02-2018, 02:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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A crisis here,,, a detonator there

7/02 Morgan Stanley: Vicious cycle will end only when stocks dive – ZH
The aggregate stock markets are down $10 trillion so far.
Armstrong broadly hinted at a bank closure. Deutsche bank may very well trigger this.
They have many $trillions in derivatives that can't realistically be unwound.
The financial sector got access to our savings (Grahm-Leach-Bliley) and speculated against the consumer driving up prices. Wages went up enough to make us non-competitive globally but, NOT enough for us to keep up with price inflation. After our savings were gone, the banks needed continual bailouts to keep functioning.

The mentality of Wall St. did NOT allow any moral hazard to enter the equation. The bailout of Wall St. erased any feelings of financial hazard. This was especially true when every loan was securitized and passed off to some muppet (investor). The bailouts just emboldened AND empowered the self-proclaimed titans to leverage even more. While the FED is owned by it's private member banks, it is slowly becoming aware of the dangers of bailing out irresponsible people.

The FED, ESF and PPT pumped endless liquidity into the system to keep everything going when actual commerce would not do that. The problem comes in when; if you offer money to people, they WILL take it.
7/02 $6.3 trillion…American companies have never owed this much – CNN Money
Excellent article on bull markets and sentiment.
Stock Markets Hyper-Risky 3 - GoldSeek.com
Keep in mind that a rising dollar will destroy the system.
"Tighter domestic monetary policy and global trade turmoil have set the US dollar for its best quarterly performance since December 2016. The DXY index, which tracks the US currency against a weighted basket of global peers, was up 5.2% in the three months to June 29. "
"U.S. dollar strength or emerging market weakness? It's most likely a mix of both,"
"The U.S. dollar gained 5.2% against the euro, 4.0% versus the Japanese yen, 6.7% versus the Swedish krona, 6.5% against the New Zealand dollar, 5.8% versus the British pound, 3.8% against the Norwegian krone, 3.7% against the Swiss franc, 3.6% versus the Australian dollar "

"14.7% drop in the Brazilian real. Surging inflation, a faltering boom, excessive debt and strongman President Erdogan's threats on central bank independence were behind the Turkish lira's 13.9% fall for the quarter. Vulnerable as well, the South African rand fell 13.7% versus the dollar.

Especially late in the quarter, Asian currencies were under heavy selling pressure. Declines for the quarter included the Thai baht's 5.8%, the Indian rupee's 4.8%, the South Korean won's 4.6%, the Taiwanese dollar's 4.5%, the Malaysian dollar's 4.3%, the Indonesian rupiah's 3.9% and the Singapore dollar's 3.7%."
"Losses included the Hungarian forint's 10.0%, the Russian ruble's 8.9%, the Polish zloty's 8.7%, the Czech koruna's 7.5%, the Iceland krona's 6.5%, the Romanian leu's 5.3%, the Bulgarian lev's 5.2%, the Serbian dinar's 5.0% and the Croatian kuna's 4.5%.

In Latin America, the Venezuelan bolivar sank 48.5%, the Mexican peso 8.7%, the Chilean peso 7.7% and the Colombian peso 4.6%. " Chinese stocks led the rout. The Shanghai Composite sank 10.1% during the quarter. The small cap CSI 500 lost 14.7%, and the CSI Midcap 200 fell 12.5%. China's growth/tech ChiNext index was slammed 15.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng financials index dropped 10.7% during the quarter, led by losses from the Chinese securities firms. As for China's two largest banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped 12.6% during the quarter and China Construction Bank lost 15.5%.

The emerging markets are in a tailspin and may very well be a detonator. Problem is, there seem to be a dozen "known" detonators spread around the world.
7/02 China is one signature away from dealing the dollar a death blow – Birch
7/02 Renminbi’s worst month ever sparks U.S.-China currency war fears – GATA

China wants a weak currency to help it's exports markets AND a strong currency to stop capital flight.
Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressures and, non-producers. What happens when you get TOO many non-producers?

John Mauldin and his Train Wreck series of articles.
Crypto news; 7/02 Some crypto investors are giving up on bitcoin, cashing out of Coinbase – Fortune
7/02 Over 1,000 cryptocurrencies are considered “dead” now – Cointelegraph


The EU is starting to face up to the fact that; borrowing money for consumption just isn't a good idea.
"After more than 2 trillion euros of asset purchases and a zero interest rate policy, it is long overdue. The massive quantitative easing (QE) program has generated very significant imbalances and the risks far outweigh the questionable benefits. The balance sheet of the ECB is now more than 40 percent of the eurozone GDP" Do tell!
"The governments of the eurozone, however, have not prepared themselves at all for the end of stimuli."
"In other words, the problems are still there, they were just hidden for a while, swept under the rug of an ever-expanding global economy."
ever-expanding global money supply

"The 19 eurozone countries have collectively saved 1.15 trillion euros in interest payments since 2008 due to ECB rate cuts and monetary policy interventions, according to German media outlet Handelsblatt. This reduction in costs is financed by pensioners and savers who are forced to invest in these debt instruments, often by institutional mandate."
"Taxes rose for families and small and medium-sized enterprises, while current spending by governments barely fell"
"The main eurozone economies face more than 2.1 trillion euros in debt maturities between 2018 and 2021."
Don't forget about the Euro 1.2 trillion in non-performing loans.
"Where would bond yields be if the ECB was not the largest purchaser of eurozone bonds? We do not know for sure, as there is no discernible market demand at these levels. "

Today, the ECB program buys more than three times the net issuances.
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Old 07-03-2018, 04:40 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Exit from equities,,, rising dollar,, DOD audit

7/02 Morgan Stanley: Vicious cycle will end only when stocks dive – ZH
7/02 Chinese, Japanese stocks plunge on trade, oil worries – CNBC
7/02 US stocks lower on trade hostility – CNBC

OK, and the result;
May 22, 2018 ... The tough times for Emerging Market Bond Funds continued, with redemptions exceeding the $1 billion mark for the third
.................................................. ...........................................
Domestic Equity funds reporting net outflows of -$6.926 billion and Non-Domestic Equity funds reporting net outflows of -$1.027 billion...ExETFs - Emerging Markets Equity funds report net outflows of -$0.345 billion.
.................................................. ...............................................
High Yield funds reported net outflows of -$1.135 billion...Money Market funds reported net inflows of $18.188 billion
So, several $trillion is flowing out of equities and EM bonds. Much of it is flowing into money-market funds. Some into U.S. bonds.
FUND FLOWS: Despite Coming Rate Hikes, Investors Love US Bonds ...
Page not found | Wealth Management...
Cameron Brandt | May 22, 2018
I posted all the various currencies that are falling. The financial "air" is being sucked out of the room. A lot of investors are running to cash.

7/02 Mexican peso and euro slide on political uncertainty – MarketWatch
7/02 Venezuela’s inflation rate tops 40,000 per cent for first time ever – Independent

Nobody wants the dollar to go up like this but, it appears to be Unstoppable.

Trump is kicking around another sacred cow;
"The U.S. and Saudi Arabia struck a side deal to boost oil supply by 2 million barrels per day, according to President Donald Trump."
Sounds fishy because Saudi production has been in decline for years.

"the actual total of unaccounted for money at the Pentagon is most likely significantly more than $21 trillion. The First ever “full-scope audit” of the Pentagon is presently underway. Read the first report from this series here. "
The financial management systems DOD has put in place to control and monitor the money flow don’t facilitate but actually “prevent DOD from collecting and reporting financial information
DOD frequently enters “unsupported” (i.e. imaginary) amounts in its books (p. 13) and uses those figures to make the books balance
DOD managers do not know how much money is in their accounts at the Treasury, or when they spend more than Congress appropriates to them. (p. 5)18
Nor does DOD “record, report, collect, and reconcile” funds received from other agencies or the public (
DOD does not know who owes it money, nor how much.
OD’s “Internal Controls,” intended to track the money, are inoperative. Thus, DOD cost reports and financial statements are inaccurate, and the size, even the direction (in plus or minus values), of the errors cannot be identified,

Think about it. The military-industrial-complex (don't forget the banks) have a bottomless check book that nobody ever looks at. Many years ago, David Walker, the comptroller-general of the U.S. refused to certify the books. Everybody is just writing checks without even a passing thought for congressional appropriations. Though, the do make sure that the grunts life in poverty. The DOD left no paper trail so that nobody could actually assign responsibility or accountability.

Trump indicated in the beginning that he wanted a complete audit.
"Gowdy declared that Strzok was obviously biased because, “He was talking about impeachment within three days of Special Counsel Robert Mueller being appointed."
“More than 60 Democrats have already voted to proceed with impeachment before Robert Mueller found a single solitary damn thing,” Gowdy roared."
American Patriot Daily ? Trey Gowdy Turned The Mueller Investigation Upside Down With This Speech

The offence industry spent $174 million on lobbying congress. EVERYBODY can be presumed dirty. Hundreds of congressmen have contributed miles of rope to the hangman.
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Old 07-03-2018, 02:48 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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No money to fill the gas tank

The CBs pump money into the financial sector. The financial sector front-runs everything that the producer loop needs to buy. Effective wages drop since purchasing power is diminished by price inflation. A barrel of oil is sold (estimates vary) about 27 times before it is consumed. Since oil is one of the biggest markets, it attracts a lot of speculators. The end result is that; our diminishing purchasing power can't afford to buy oil. Price i8nflation has outrun wage inflation. Add to this; China, et al have put a roof on wages.
Global aggregate purchasing power is falling as various States raise their basic standard of living. Oil is getting more scarce and, more expensive. Our wages are falling and we can't actually pay for oil. The FED pumped out $trillions and some of this went to the junk-bond market to finance fracking.

Sr. Price writes about the fall of oil. It is not so much the price of recovering oil. It is also the amount of energy expended to recover it.
"Net Energy Available for GDP Growth, per barrel of oil, was about 61% of the total original energy in each barrel, after subtracting unavoidable Waste Energy, and Energy Costs of Production; by 2015, that figure had fallen to only 8%. In 2030, the Net Energy provided by the Petroleum Industry is forecasted to be - 0%!"
This is an excellent article.
"According to the thermodynamic thesis, the price of oil has not been able to rise to make good the financial promises of the Oil Industry, simply because the productivity of the world has been insufficient to allow payment of higher prices."
Yep, the money is stuck in the upper loop.

Here is a very comprehensive report on the 12 major debt sectors. Once again, debt is crashing because our wages are insufficient to service it.

China is in rapid meltdown because it too doesn't have high enough wages to service it's debts.
As the FED raises rates it marches straight towards the dreaded inversion of the yield curve.
So, the FED is raising rates to attract fleeing capital. Raising dates will crash domestic markets. The FED has lit one end of our life raft on fire.

7/03 Investor margin debt reaches record high – SRSRocco Report
Yep, smart money is fleeing equities. The dumb money is buying up all the deals with even-higher leverage.
7/03 Companies buying back their own shares is the only thing supporting stocks – CNBC
What could go wrong and, when will it?
7/03 Obrador’s win in Mexico is an opportunity for Trump to end drug war –Tom Luongo
Crucify the bankers if you wants to end the drug war.
Kim Jong Un seems to have stripped a couple of cogs.
North Korea's Kim Jong Un Wants to 'Completely Eliminate Manual Labor'
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Old 07-04-2018, 04:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Oil Vs the economy,,,currency reset

Well, oil is going up so, everything else must go down.
The total cost of crude as a percentage of world GDP is now 3.57%. The 1960 to 2015 average was been 2.48%. Every time, over the last 58 years, that the ratio has exceeded 3.25% the economy has gone into a recession within a year. There is no reason to believe that this time will be any different.
Besides the cost of crude, the taxes are rising on fuel. The State does not care.
A good article on oil depletion;
A good graph, http://i64.tinypic.com/2cfshth.jpg

Armstrong, "I have explained that southern Europe got the worse deal. They converted their debts to Euro and then the Euro rose from 80 cents to $1.60 doubling their national debts and the austerity policy forced economic recession upon their economies with youth unemployment reach 60% in some regions known as the lost generation. "
This is the simplest explanation of what went wrong.

Special Discuss JUN 26, 2018 - MARTIN ARMSTRONG: The New Currency System is Coming
The whole world sees that the rising strength of the dollar is ripping the system apart. The obvious solution is to devalue the dollar AND make it less attractive.

Jim Willie, "the upcoming Systemic Lehman event that hits both sovereign bonds and entire banking systems, "
I suspect that Trump is making a fast trip to meet Putin because the system is failing fast.

Martin Armstrong Warning To All * Economic Collapse Isn’t COMING, It’s Already HERE!
MARTIN ARMSTRONG Next Depression will Not Directly Effect Economy but Bonds and Governments
I just don't buy this.
Alex Jones;
Trillionaire Rothschild Warns His Own Central Banking System Is Failing and Buys Gold
The Dollar Vigilante

Deutsche Bank In PANIC MODE as Stock Near RECORD LOW and Market Shows MASSIVE Outflows!
The Money GPS
7/04 Carpet is about to be pulled out from under junk bond market – ZH
WAIT, they financed fracking.
"There is now $63 trillion of sovereign debt outstanding, with total debt at $237 trillion, a full $70 trillion above pre-Lehman levels.
There are only 11 sovereigns and only two U.S. firms left with a AAA rating,"
"The 2007 U.S. deficit at $161 billion or 1.1 percent of GDP pales in comparison to this year’s projection of $804 billion. America’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to over 105 percent of GDP from around 65 percent of GDP in 2008, with projections of a continued rise. In the euro zone too debt is now 20 percent higher, rising 60 percent in Spain; and Italy’s public debt, already high in 2008, has now breached 130 percent of GDP, a full 30 percent higher than its 2008"

Trump will seal a deal with Putin so that America will still get oil after the dollar crashes. The meeting is soon. The U.S. military is the biggest user of petroleum in the world. Something's gotta give. The dollar will be devalued overnight. This has been done many times with many currencies. Prices will be set commensurate with our wages.

Jim Willie;
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Old 07-04-2018, 02:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Abandoning the banks

"J.P. Morgan was off by more than 2 percent in trading Friday. Wells Fargo dropped nearly 3 percent.
"If you take out the capital markets business and the one-time events, it shows these banks aren't doing any business, and that's the key problem,"
"Bank stocks are breaking down even as rates are rising. Here’s why"
Why Big Bank Stocks Are About to Crumble | Investopedia

" The US Federal Reserve (Fed) struck an unprecedented bargain with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley ahead of recent stress tests that allowed the two banking giants to avoid outright failing grades"
"US Branch of Deutsche Bank Fails Federal Reserve Stress Test"
Deutsche Bank leads the way on the slow grind down to insolvency. The new Italian government is setting off capital flight. This may take down Deutsche Bank.

Apparently, the war-mongers / arms industry is running scared.
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Old 07-05-2018, 03:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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What to do about the strong dollar

May is trying to do the bidding of the London bankers,
7/05 Britain’s May to pitch ‘softest possible Brexit’ plan to team: ITV – Reuters
Oil isn't going to be abandoned Everybody wants to raise their energy consumption. This can only be done with solar and wind.
7/04 China showcases mega solar farm size of 5 Manhattans – People’s Daily
7/05 Bitcoin bear: Digitized gold ‘only type of crypto that can succeed’ – Cointelegraph
7/05 Outright US-China currency war the real risk, McKinnon says – Bloomberg

No such thing is possible. The markets and confidence are driving the rise in the dollar. Historically, when a State wanted to devalue it's currency, it re-pegged it to the U.S. dollar. The rising dollar is a fast-moving calamity. The only way to re-peg the dollar is to re-peg it to GOLD. Years ago, the peg was changed from $ 20 per pounce to about $35. This will happen again because market distortion caused by capital flight to the dollar is just too destructive.

Goodbye M3 - What is the Government hiding? - InflationData.com
https://inflationdata.com › Home › Blog › Government
Mar 16, 2006 - FED will no longer track M3 hiding massive inflation of the money supply. ... The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited ... So the question immediately arises why would the FED stop tracking this?

Why Did FRED Suddenly Discontinue Reporting On The Fed's Balance Sheet Normalization?
by Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/04/2018 -
The FED is real keen to hide monetary inflation that might reverse capital flight to the dollar.

"Europe was shocked by the Danske Bank reports and sees its shares drop around 3% on the day. "
Wait, I thought that Deutsche bank was at the head of the meltdown.
"Lots of talk also surrounding the ECB’s twist operation it rumoured last week. Talk that the maturing proceeds will be reinvested at the long end of European markets is causing yet more curve flattening as liquidity dries even more. Draghi also mentioned last week that rates could remains low beyond summer of 2019 "
Ah yes, that pesky yield curve problem.

Armstrong, "This is war is building, but it is not really between Trump and Putin personally. The bureaucracy in the USA seems to want war. Perhaps as a diversion for economic problems with social programs"
UK reportedly tells Trump he cannot meet with Brexit architect Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage unveils George Soros corruption with EU 200 MEPs on the take

Arrest george soros! nigel farage orders the eu parliament
Trump To Tell NATO US Won’t Be Their ‘Piggy Bank'
Wait, NATO bases are the prime distribution point for drugs in Europe.
Iran Will Import Good Only From Countries Buying Its Oil
The face of the future.
Switzerland Chooses Gold Over Dollar-Backed Paper
Gazprom Boosts Natural Gas Production To Solidify Top Position In Europe
World Bank Backs Egypt To Become Regional Oil, Gas Trading Hub
YES, but Iran has the gas and oil, NOT Egypt.

As Syria is purged of mercenaries, the pipeline wars are winding down. Pox Americana is provoking Iran still trying to diminish their oil sales. At the same time, they don't want to provoke them TOO much.
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Old 07-06-2018, 04:18 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Systemic failure, Countdown, hot in the Golan

"The unwelcome reality is the systemic issues cannot be reversed with policy tweaks or shuffling those at the top of a crumbling centralized order. The systemic problems arise from the structures of centralization and monopoly capital, the institutionalization of perverse incentives"
"The Ratchet Effect is another key reason why meaningful reform of the status quo is impossible. In flush times, budgets expand as easily as waistlines, ratcheting up to consume ever-higher revenues. But once revenues start declining, the administrative/consumerist status quo is fiercely resistant to any reduction."
Don't cut off my welfare , or else

"In other words, the social crises, the constitutional crises, the financial crises--all of these are to some degree mere manifestations of the failure of centralized systems that arose to benefit from conditions that no longer exist."
"Rather than admit the failure of our socio-economic system, those benefiting from the system's gross imbalances are pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of control:"
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Gathering Storm

One would expect a war to break out to be the scapegoat for economic and social collapse..
The M.I.C. is deathly afraid that peace will break out and end their gravy train. What about China?

Bernanke, Dalio and Armstrong all claim that U.S. GOV will collapse going in to 2020. Pick January for argument’s sake. We still have August, September, October, November and December. For 2019, we have 12 months. So, we have 17 months until the U.S. GOV collapses.
Making a guess, I would say that the banks will collapse 2 months before the GOV collapses. That means that we have 15 months +/- until the bank closures. The EU banks should collapse 2-3 months before that.

FED GOV isn't just sitting by idly.
"Another record shows that ICE has recently procured 8,000 M4 assault rifles, adding to the 5,000 ICE already has in the field. "
"shows that the officers of the agency’s Enforcement and Removal Operations will this year be trained in the use of assault weapons, chemical agents, stun grenades, and flash bangs at the Howell Shooting Range in Chicago" Chicago,,, huh?
Trump is trying to cut back on the debt to make it more manageable.
President Trump Cuts More US Debt for a Longer Period of Time Than Any President | MAGA PILL

The West is provoking Iran hoping to get regime change. They want to reduce it's oil earnings to zero. That can't be realistically done. Iran is holding the Straights of Hormuz as hostage.
The pentagram says that they can keep the straights open. No possibility.

Trump has refused to bomb the Syrian army that is taking back Syria from the mercenaries hired by Saudi, israel and the neocons. Teresa May, held in bondage by the London bankers has dropped a few bombs in a show of support.
Meanwhile, israel is demanding that Syria honor a 1974 separation of force agreement that both of them signed. Syria has no particular reason to abide by a de-escalation agreement that was nothing more that a convenience.
"The agreement was signed a year after an Arab-Israeli war in which Syrian forces failed to retake a large part of the Golan Heights area seized by Israel in 1967.

The strategic highland has since been annexed by Israel, bringing some Israeli troops as well as settlements to within a few dozen miles (kilometers) of Damascus. " "The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported some 600 airstrikes in Daraa province."

So, will the Syrians take the Golan or, not?
Netanyahooo is running to Moscow again to plead / demand that Putin let israel have the Golan. . Everybody on the planet is tired of the endless wars. The U.N. is VERY clear.

"To underline that this capacity still exists and should not be tested, Hizbollah has retaliated against direct Israeli attacks on its assets in Syria with operations in the Israeli-occupied Sheba farms area, which it considers Lebanese territory,"
A LOT of arms were funnelled to the mercenaries through Jordan. Recently, Netanayahooo went to Jordan to demand more help. More recently, the king and queen of Jordan came to visit Trump. He said that the king and he were old friends.
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Old 07-06-2018, 02:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Save the investor, kill the jobs

"U.S. has record 6 million job openings, even as 6.8 million Americans are looking for jobs"
U.S. has record 6 million job openings, even as 6.8 million Americans are looking for jobs
"Inflation Is Back, Part 8: Labor Shortage Reaches “Critical” Point"
America has a massive truck driver shortage. Here's why few want an ...
Construction industry struggles with labor shortage | The Seattle Times

So, who can we blame this on?
"In the United States, the total capacity of all colleges and universities is only 40% of high school graduates."
"The misguided decision to close the majority of LAUSD's once vibrant industrial arts program was made under the false assumptions that it would be too expensive to retrofit them to modern standard"
"3.There are critical shortages in the skilled labor market for mechanics, welders, carpenters, and electricians with starting salaries of over $40,000 that are going unfilled in our society. "
The case for Industrial Arts. - Perdaily.com

The Death Of Shop Class And America's Skilled Workforce - Forbes
May 30, 2012 - Shop classes are being eliminated from California schools due to the ... Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) with 660,000 students in ... Without early exposure to shop class many kids are going to lose out on the ...
This is a Fobes article and, evidently, I've used up my free quota of views.

"with the supplier base and knowledge required for manufacturing centered in Asia, the United States no longer has the technological prowess to manufacture many high-tech devices domes*tically. When it comes to applied research and downstream “process innovation,” America lags behind its competitors."
"Corporate research labs that once developed and commercialized breakthrough technologies have been eliminated. And critically, the United States, unlike Germany or Japan or South Korea, lacks key institutions focused on applied research and innovation. "
"U.S. manufacturing employment has fallen 30 percent since 2000. Deindustrialization, which in the 1980s was centered in the heavy industry sectors of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, moved to the Sunbelt after 2000. As U.S. factories closed, the locus of manufac*turing moved to Asia."

" It’s a story with much good news for the nation as a whole . . . [as] mills were able to replace their workers with a new generation of nearly autonomous, computer-run machines.2"
America’s largest import from China is electrical machinery, followed by general machinery. Its largest exports to China: grains, seeds, and fruit.
"But starting in the 1970s and ’80s, American corporations stopped pursuing these long-term research projects. Kressel poignantly describes the demise of lab after lab. These losses include Westinghouse Research Labs, which created the foundational technology for flat-panel displays; Hughes Research Laboratories; the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center; and his own RCA Labs, which was spun off. "
"the search for “shareholder value” pushed companies to outsource manufacturing and to cut corporate R&D,"

"Indeed, activist investors seem to have a special enmity for central corporate labs. The handful of remaining research labs in the United States, such as the lab at DuPont, have come under fire from activist investors. Following the activist-engineered merger of Dow and DuPont (and vast layoffs at DuPont’s central research and development organization), Trian Fund Management’s Nelson Peltz turned his attention to Procter & Gamble. Here again, the activist sought a “lean holding company,” meaning cutbacks in R&D"
Activist investors,,, what a wonderful concept.
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Old 07-07-2018, 04:01 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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All quiet besides tariffs

The U.S. is relatively stable when compared to China, India, Brazil and Europe. It appears that Trump wants to shake up foreign markets with his tariffs. Here is the list.
The Office of the US Trade Representative on Tuesday announced a list of Chinese products that will face a new 25% tariff.
The list includes machinery, agricultural equipment, and tech goods.
The Chinese are laying tariffs on pork, fruit and nuts.
Apparently, the list is set to expand.

7/06 China accuses the US of launching the ‘largest trade war in economic history’ –
7/06 Trump’s trade war with China shifts into high gear – The Hill

Trade War Begins - China Retaliates With 25%
Tariffs On $34 Billion Worth Of US Imports

Trump Regime's Trade War With China Heats Up
Chinese Ports Begin Delaying Clearing US Goods

Russia Slaps Retaliatory Duties On US Imports
Trump Threatens China With $500 Billion In US Tariffs.

so far the tariffs haven't destabilized markets but, the night is yet young.
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Old 07-07-2018, 02:48 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trade war, Powell, EU banks, Kunstler

Here is a 12 page report on economic factors that includes tons of charts. Among the many things that it shows; Chinese exports to America only account for 3.5 % of it's GDP.
7/07 Risk of ‘brutal correction’ in global stock markets – Sydney Morning Herald
7/07 The dark cloud of global debt — perfect storm looms – GoldTelegraph

Here is one chart that shows the "everything" bubble.

OK, what about decisions from Powell,, the FED head?
"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate suggests
that the U.S. economy is growing at a 4.5% annual
rate. I find this inconceivable"
"Chairman Jerome Powell is more concerned about economic overheating and the strong labor market is emboldening policymakers to become more hawkish. "
"The Treasury yield curve does not agree with Powell’s assessment and has flattened sharply since the Fed’s last decision. "
"The Fed narrative seems to be that U.S. economic strength will be sustained, and inflation will creep higher. However, forward-looking indicators are telling a different story"

7/07 June jobs increase — all part time and no full time jobs – Zero Hedge
7/07 Welcome to full employment – Atlantic
7/07 Copper’s collapse deepens as US-China trade war escalates – Bloomberg

Dr. copper is a very good indicator of true economic strength.
7/07 As Japan dumps Treasuries it’s buying riskier US assets – Think Advisor
So, Japan believes that junk bonds carry less risk than U.S. treasuries.
7/07 Brexit: Theresa May’s new customs plan ‘dead on arrival’ in EU – Independent
The French, Swiss and German banks have no intention of letting London
banks continue to do business as usual on the continent.
7/07 US spends $686 billion on defense — what about other NATO countries? – CNBC
There are 688 billion reasons to go looking for enemies.

Kunstler has a new report that is more than mildly pessimistic.
Summer of Tough Love - Kunstler
"Trump wants lower oil prices while at the same time his administration is trying to zero out 2.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports.

“It does not occur to the U.S. president that it is Trump himself who is driving prices up through his Iran policy,”
“You impose sanctions on major producers, founders of OPEC, and yet you are asking them to reduce the prices?! Since when did you start ordering OPEC!” Iran’s OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said in a statement. “Your tweets have driven the prices up by at least $10/b. Pls stop it, otherwise it will go even higher!”
"Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress has revived legislation that would remove the immunity that sovereign nations have from being sued from antitrust violations."
Yeah, that should go over real well around the world.
An excellent report on Work and Wealth
In the Battle for Syria, it still remains to be seen just where the Syrian army will stop.
This is a very big deal.
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Old 07-08-2018, 09:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Failed Capitalism,, bring in socialism

Capitalism; the operating system;
Take something from the natural world, add in a bit of labor, trade it for some other item that you need.
This is the only system that actually produces anything. Any other system must necessarily involve theft by some non-producer.
Capitalism - An economic system based on the “Survival of the fittest”.
Socialism – An economic system based on “You get your share no matter what your contribution is”.

Pure capitalism does not involve coercion. The non-producers of the world don't have any interest in “Survival of the fittest” Society has always had thieves who would steal the fruits of the labor of the producers. The State is the biggest thief of them all. It has the law books and often, all of the guns. The State perfects parasitism to a fine art.
Of course, this is all very legal. It is now fashionably called "crony capitalism."
Crony capitalists bribe the State to give them an exclusive license for theft in some particular sector. The system is now COMPLETELY rotten with all the wealth transferred to the parasites. The entire system is rotten and, irredeemable. So, what is the end result?

Search on, "failure of capitalism" About 27,800,000 results
The first return is; Posner, famous for his advocacy of free markets, turns on free-market capitalism in this book: "the financial crisis is indeed a crisis of capitalism rather than a failure of government." ... He asserts that the "depression is a failure of capitalism".
Richard Posner was born on January 11, 1939, in New York City. His father's family were of Romanian Jewish descent, and his mother's family were Ashkenazi Jews from Vienna, Austria.

The failure of CRONY capitalism is most assuredly a failure of government. The State regulators enabled the bankers to steal everything. Aside from regulatory failures, the bankers are responsible for the enormous currency inflation that robs everyone who doesn't have a printing press.

5 Reasons Capitalism Has Failed | Alternet
The Failure of Capitalism | The Swamp
American capitalism has failed us: We're overworked, underemployed ..
A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of '08 and the Descent into depression, Posner
Not a Failure of Capitalism--A Failure of Government
The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West. Towards a New Economics for a Full World.
Capitalism, American style; a failing system, no longer a model for the world
Capitalism has failed the world: Socialism is the viable alternative ...

Ah, now we're getting somewhere.

Has capitalism failed or do we just not like its results? | Stuff.co.nz
Socialism vs. Capitalism: Which is the Moral System | Ashbrook
Laissez Faire Capitalism left when the State demanded to grow without limits. The only host available was the producer.
Mother Nature does not "do" morality. It is impossible to claim that socialism is moral if a great number of people must steal their sustenance.
Socialism has never worked because it removes motivation. It does appeal to the masses of people who never had any motivation. They can be counted on to vote for it every time.

These are the Jewish socialists who paved the way for Bernie Sanders
The Jews Who Dreamed of Utopia - The New York Times
Milton Friedman on Israel and Jewish Support for Socialism
Empire, Socialism and Jews V: The Postwar Years
Jewish Socialism is Hot Among Millennial Voters - PJ Media

Historical Dictionary of Socialism - Page 254 - Google Books Result
Peter Lamb - 2015 - ‎Political Science
JEWS. Jews have played an outstanding role in the history of socialism as both revolutionaries and reformists. Among the many socialist thinkers and leaders ...

So, here we are. Capitalism has FAILED. Socialism is the better system and MSM is pushing it. The legislature is responsible for the collapse. How will the battle shape up. How will the armies on non-producers wage war to bring socialist enlightenment?
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Old 07-10-2018, 04:22 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Bumps and potholes in the financial road

Teresa May is trying to do the bidding of the city of London bankers. She has just run into a block wall. Everybody is deserting. They can see that Brexit is going to be such a bloody mess, they don't want to be anywhere near Parliament.
'Absolute chaos': BoJo is third minister to resign as foreign secretary within 24 hours
Chris Hedges has a very impre4ssive history as a foreign correspondent. Here is an excellent vid of the battle lines.

An excellent article about corporatism and, where it has brought the world. He is really down on Trump but, don't let that affect your view of the greater message.
"Our “corporate coup d’état in slow motion,” as the writer John Ralston Saul calls it, has opened a Pandora’s box of evils that is transforming America into a failed state. The “unholy trinity of corruption, impunity and violence,” he said, can no longer be checked. The ruling elites abjectly serve corporate power to exploit and impoverish the citizenry. Democratic institutions, including the courts, are mechanisms of corporate repression. Financial fraud and corporate crime are carried out with impunity"

"It's been my view, going back to 2009's aggressive reflationary measures, that central bankers failed to learn key lessons from the mortgage finance Bubble period. My biggest frustration revolved around the Fed's fateful decision to target mortgage Credit for system reflation - and then their complete neglect of prudent oversight of mortgage lending and mortgage-related financial intermediation, leverage and speculation. "
The residential real estate market is where the upper loop meets the lower loop. They wanted to bring confidence to those in the upper loop. The lower loop got the shaft because RE price inflation meant that millions would be homeless.

The billionaires have a problem. When the crash and the chaos hits, how can they insure the obedience of their guards? ,,,, shock collars OR, robot guards???
Here is a graph of Lehman Bros laid over a graph of Deutsche bank,http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...nn-600x334.jpg
"but change starts in the periphery where very few are looking. Look at China where the Shanghai composite is down 23% since January. And look at Brazil where the Bovespa is off 17% so far this year and Turkey which has lost 20%."
"Once the bear markets start, they are likely to turn into secular trends that last many years and result in falls of 75% to 95%. Difficult to believe for most investors today, but nobody in 1929 believed that the Dow would fall 90% in the ensuing years and take 25 years to recover."
"But as tax revenues decline and spending increases, I would not be surprised to see $28 trillion debt in 2021. That would put the US on course for a $40 trillion debt in 2025. That would mean a doubling of the debt from 2017 which is in line with the historical trend of a 100% increase every 8 years."

"There is a consensus that many of the Eurozone countries are basket cases and that is hard to argue against. Very few talk about the US as a basket case. But with no real budget surplus since 1960, the US financial and military hegemony will soon come to an abrupt end"
"That is why no one believes that DB is even worth the equity as the market cap is only 28% of shareholders’ funds. A 4.6% loss on the DB loan book or a 0.1% loss on the derivative portfolio would totally extinguish the equity."
"But how can they save a bank with a balance sheet of 50% of German GDP and a derivative portfolio of 14x GDP? "

Here is an article about how tight the labor market is.
7/09 Record 95 million Americans not in the labor force – MyBudget360
7/09 Stocks jump as traders’ fears dissipate – CNBC
7/09 Chinese stocks have best day in two years as trade war fears recede – Reuters

7/09 Global trade decelerates sharply – Independent

A very good article by Armstrong on the history of tariffs.
Here is an exhaustive article on the effects of the coming oil crunch.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ll-shock-world

"With the creation and treachery of a Christmas vote, the Federal Reserve took full control of the financial sector and placed the country on the inevitable path of totalitarian rule.

If a refresher course is needed, the Jackals of Jekyll Island - Federal Reserve Audit article illustrates the dire nature and consequences of the debt created money system that has impoverished our society. In the essay, Federal Reserve 100 Years of Failure the history of the banksters financial system is examined. So what can be done to stop this monster of liberty destruction and monetary theft? First off the immediate remedy provided for the removal of reprehensible outlaws is impeachment.
" The first was by Congressman Lindbergh: Articles of Impeachment Against Federal Reserve."

This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President signs this Act the invisible government by the Money Power, proven to exist by the Money Trust Investigation, will be legalized. The new law will create inflation whenever the trusts want inflation. From now on depressions will be scientifically created.” – Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh, Sr., 1913"
"Now that this sterling American patriot (Congressman Louis T. McFaddens) has made the Passing, it can be revealed that not long after his public utterance against the encroaching powers of Judah, it became known among his intimates that he had suffered two attacks against his life. The first attack came in the form of two revolver shots fired at him from ambush as he was alighting from a cab in front of one of the Capital hotels. "
"The most recent attempt was made by Rep. Gonzalez, Henry B. [D-TX-20] (Introduced 03/07/1985).

H.Res.101 - A resolution providing for the impeachment of Paul A. Volcker, Edward G. Boehne, Robert H. Boykin, E. Gerald Corrigan, Lyle E. Gramley, Karen N. Horn, Preston Martin, J. Charles Partee, Emmett J. Rice, Martha R. Seger, and Henry C. Wallich, as members of the Federal Open Market Committee."
"Nonetheless, the value of using the impeachment vehicle is not necessarily the removal of a Greenspan, a Bernanke or a Yellen. It is about developing the critical mass necessary to instill public awareness that the financial system of central banking is the quintessence and inevitable reason, for the cause of the coming economic collapse, which is unavoidable. "
"Impeachment is a small step towards the replacement of the malefic hell that the central bankers inflict as they squeeze America to the “consequences of defaulting on a desperate bargain”
Face the facts that the courts and the legal barrister class are essentially gatekeepers to protect the establishment.

Trump meant it when he said America first. Other states are starting to catch on.
Trump has GREAT plans to cut back on the huge waste of money that Pox Americana has become.
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Old 07-10-2018, 03:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Location: L.A. Ca.
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England,Armstrong, gold, changing world order

It is becoming more obvious every day that economics and politics are linked together with one alternately jerking the other one along. There is no better example of this in Europe at the moment than the débâcle in England. You Scots, Irish and Welsh have your own issues.
England; "I have to say that Boris Johnson’s comment that Britain is headed for the status of a “colony” is absolutely correct. There are “remainers” who have simply ignored ALL the economic data and will seriously end Britain as any sort of viable economy."
About that North Sea oil that ran out,,,

"It may simply be too much to expect rational political leadership any more from Britain. Instead of the cabinet stabbing the PM in the back as they did with Thatcher to also try to join the euro, this time it is the PM who is stabbing her cabinet and the people in the back trying to stay in the EU "
"There are people now calling for Nigel Farage to return. Quite frankly, Nigel is probably the ONLY hope for Britain. Unless they cut the umbilical cord to the EU, Britain cannot possibly survive. Its economy has been sucked dry. "
"The economic growth of Britain peaked before it joined the EU and has declined steadily ever since. Britain loses EVERY trade argument in the EU Court. "
"after the coup against Margaret Thatcher to take the pound into the euro. This is not the END of the Conservatives, but the PM has to realize that any concern about leaving the EU is absolutely stupid. Europe is tearing itself apart. Nigel Farage should step back in, but he has paid a high price personally for trying to save his own country.

Personally, London to me is the most beautiful city in the world to live in. I lived there for about 5 years. "
You can bet that he didn't live in Earl's Court.

"Therefore, the business cycle I discovered was INTERNATIONAL, and by that very nature, it means that when one nation peaks, another bottoms."
"We are in the eye of the storm coming out the other end. When we do, the turmoil will begin. While I would hope that at some point the political powers at large will listen, the likelihood of that is nil until the crisis happens."
"The longer the government wages war against its own people to retain power, the greater the fall into economic oblivion."

Charles Hugh Smith; "Here are the core characteristics of dysfunctional but stable states that benefit the entrenched few at the expense of the many, i.e. 3rd World nations:"
" 6. Cartels and quasi-monopolies are parasitically extracting the wealth of the nation for their elite owners and managers. Google: quasi-monopoly. Facebook: quasi-monopoly. Healthcare: cartel. Banking: cartel. National defense: cartel. National Security: cartel. Corporate mainstream media: cartel. Higher education: cartel. Student loans: cartel. I think you get the point: every key institution or function is controlled by cartels or quasi-monopolies that serve the interests of the few via parasitic exploitation of the powerless.
7. The elites use the extreme violence and repressive powers of the government to suppress, marginalize and/or destroy any dissent. "
"The USA is definitively a 3rd World nation. Read the list above and then try to argue the USA is not a 3rd World nation. Try arguing against the facts displayed in this chart:"
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The USA Is Now a 3rd World Nation

Here is a good article on the mega-parasite, the blob State.
Janus v AFSCME and the truth about Illinois pensions in one graphic – Wirepoints Original | Wirepoints

Traditionally, money (the unit of account) was something that was rare and / or difficult to produce. It could be cowrie shells, Rare feathers, salt.
The unit of account had a relative value to everything else.
Armstrong, "When St. Patrick visited Ireland during the 5th century AD, he wrote that the monetary unit of account was slave girls. That did not mean you went shopping dragging slave girls with you to pay for things. Everything else was valued in terms of slave girls, so they were the “unit of account”
This is where Armstrong's logic fails. He stridently talks down gold.
"These gold promoters hurt so many people for they imply that everything will crash and only gold will rise to such levels. If everything crashed, that would be deflation and gold would decline not rise. Gold would ONLY rise when it is the monetary base or the money everyone uses. That it is not. You cannot pay your mortgage in gold nor can you pay your taxes. That means it is NOT legal tender"

You can't pay your taxes in slave girls either. Armstrong is deliberately mixing currency with store-of-value.
"Those who keep preaching that only gold is money are in the same category. Money at the end of the day is labor be in physical or mental. You accept whatever in exchange for that because someone else will accept it from you. "
Once again, Armstrong ignores the fact that "money" is a store-of-value AND a medium of exchange.
You don't get paid in slave girls for building a wall. You get whatever is the most convenient medium of exchange.

"Besides, for gold to reach such levels, nothing would be left including a place to even spend it. If there is nothing you can spend it on, it becomes worthless for it is only a medium of exchange. The dark pictures they paint are not something gold would survive. At that point, the control-alt-delete buttons are pushed and everything would rest back to the hunter-gather period meaning food is everything."

" it is only a medium of exchange" Gold has been the premier store-of-value for thousands of years. It doesn't wear out like slave girls.
Bankers HATE gold because it limits currency expansion. Since most banking is parasitic, they need unlimited monetary inflation.
"This is Alice in Wonderland, plain and simple to say gold will rise to $50,000 or higher. The maximum our models project is $5,000. That is probably the point at which total chaos is unleashed anyhow and you end up with a completely new monetary system."
He refuses to recognise the store-of-value function.

"Keep in mind, however, gold will not go so easily into the light. There is a high probability that they will declare gold illegal for transactions and prosecute under money laundering, which has been redefined as simply hiding money from government. The end game is really the collapse of the monetary system and hopefully that coincides with a collapse in government power. That is where gold will make the transition from the old to the new."
NOT in the R.O.W.
U.S. Gov may very well try to take the gold because that will be the only thing that the East desires for payment.

One last thing of great importance. A gold standard is DEATH to war. All States go off the gold standard when they are planning a big war. After the war, EVERYBODY is squeezed for taxes and impoverished.
Trump doesn't show his cards any more than he has to.
Mike King;
"Having watched Trump talk trash about Syrian President Assad before launching a harmless missile attack on Syria, soon followed by a complete cutoff of the CIA's program to arm the Syrian terror-rebels -- and having watched Trump threaten war on North Korea, soon followed by a stunning announcement of a one-on-one meeting with Lil' Kim -- and having watched him talk trash about Putin, soon followed by a stunning announcement of a one-on-one meeting with Putin (this week!) -- Sugar and I, er, "The Editorial Board" of The Anti-New York Times are reading this "trade war" ™ as the latest installment of Trump's chess-match against the Globalists -- an epic contest in which men like Putin, Xi, Assad, Lil' Kim, Erdogan and others are all in league with Trump.

Far from a mutually damaging "trade war" ™, we believe that Trump and Xi -- unlike Obongo and Xi -- clearly have a mutually respectful relationship and have already worked out new trade terms that will be fairer for the United States. As is the ongoing case with the Trump-Kim "negotiations," the rest is for public consumption and entertainment. The Piranha Press will once again huff and puff their fury towards "isolationist" Trump until he finally pulls the rug out from his demented detractors by "winning," with Xi's assistance, "the trade war" ™.
"So, that's our call on this coming "trade war" ™. On a separate note, we would like to point out the inconsistency and double-standard hypocrisy of Sulzberger's Slimes scaring its simple-minded readers with talk of Trump's "trade war" ™, when they never once called attention to the very real dangers of the "cold war" that Obongo and State Secretary Killary Clinton had started with China.

There was the "Asian Pivot" scheme which encircled China with missiles, bases and relocated naval assets. There was the unusual arming-up of local vassal states like Vietnam and the Philippines. There was the pressure placed upon vassal Japan to abandon the "pacifist clause" of its constitution so that it could re-arm itself as a counter to China. There were the constant warnings, threats and provocative naval cruises directed toward China over its "seized" islands and newly constructed artificial islands. Thankfully, all that tension is gone now.

The final few years of the Obongo presidency marked a dangerous decline in US-China relations. So dangerous, in fact, that George Soros (cough cough) - one of the highest raking "capos" of today's New World Order crime syndicate, made comments during a conference at the World Bank (2015) that were actually not-so-veiled threats of World War III.

Soros' actual comments below, followed by our "translations."


Soros: If there is conflict between China and a military ally of the United States, like Japan, then it is not an exaggeration to say that we are on the threshold of a third world war. "

Killary and the neocons and other various war mongers planned to light up Russia as fast as possible.
So what is Trump doing?
He wants to pull out all the troops that are superfluous and, he wants to concentrate on mutually beneficial trade.
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Old 07-11-2018, 03:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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How to bring back morality?

Douglas MacArthur (1880-1964), Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in the Pacific during World War II, stated, “History fails to record a single precedent in which nations subject to moral decay have not passed in to political and economic decline."
Just as honest people tend to aggregate, dishonest people tend to surround themselves by easily corrupted people. If everybody is a crook, they are all trying to steal everything in sight. When the fruits of your labor are serially stolen, you stop producing anything extra. The predations of the corporatocracy bring EXACTLY the same results as socialism. Socialism brings a moribund economy with little productivity.
The corporatocracy brings us to the same outcome,,, by a different route.

The State prints extra money to keep the working class solvent so we ignore the constant predations from the corporations. No corporation can be expected to make moral decisions unless the officers are moral. Chances are, these officers can't make moral decisions and still be able to compete with other corporations that are immoral.
There is something to be said for a State run by royalty. They rule the State by birthright and, are more difficult to corrupt.

Hammurabi is an example. He wrote a code of laws that held everybody accountable for their actions. The EXACT opposite of what the corporate construct accomplishes. After the 2008 crash, only one banker went to jail.
Fascism, "the marriage of big business and, big government".
The corporatocracy has removed all moral hazard. The Central Bank has effectively removed all financial hazard. BUT, only in a temporary manner. We will have a return to financial hazard. What would it take to return our society to moral hazard?

Kunstler, "The collapse of our techno-industrial set-up has actually been going on for some time, insidiously and corrosively, without shattering the scaffolds of seeming normality, just stealthily undermining them. I’d date the onset of it to about 2005 when the world unknowingly crossed an invisible border into the terra incognito of peak oil, by which, of course, I mean oil that societies could no longer afford to pull out of the ground. "
"The techno-narcissistic nonsense reverberating through the echo-chambers of business, media, and government aims to furnish that nostrum called “hope” to a nation that simply won’t admit darker outcomes to the terrible limits facing humanity."

"I expect the collapse to pick up more momentum as we turn the corner around summer. The system that we have most willfully abused and perverted is finance. This monster that so many observers call “capitalism” is just a set of methods for managing surplus wealth — the catch being that nothing nearly this complex has ever been seen before in history and is a pure product of the 200-year-long industrial orgy driven by fossil fuels. That is, the world never before accumulated so much surplus wealth in such a short span of time."
When Collapse Goes Kinetic - Kunstler

Kunstler calls for a downturn after this summer. Look at this graph and, decide for your selves.
Powell plans to ignore the yield curve and forge ahead with rate hikes. It is going to get messy.
"Bloomberg's markets recession model, which translates how various asset classes are trading into recession probabilities, now flags the next recession to take place in 12-24 months. More importantly, the start of the recession is more likely to be in the next 12 months rather than in two years."

"#3: As commercial and central banks devalue the dollar “currency risk” affects the debt markets and interest rates rise. Higher rates applied to $230 trillion of global debt require larger debt service payments and “squeeze” debtors including all sovereign governments."
"Debt is too large. Either sovereign debt will default (unthinkable) or will be paid with devalued currencies. Argentina “over-printed” and dropped 13 zeros from their inflated currency during the past 70 years."
"As George Bernard Shaw said, “You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government."

The yield curve is also showing a recession in the not-to-distant future.

7/11 Asian markets plunge after tariff list news; China stocks take a hit – CNBC
7/11 US futures slip as Trump seeks tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods – CNBC
7/11 Every $1 in debt generates just 44 cents in economic output – Sovereign Man
7/11 Leveraged loan risks are piling up – Wolf Street
7/11 The most hawkish Fed ever? – Silver Phoenix
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