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Old 04-08-2018, 07:49 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Tariffs, globalism,, Keynes & White,, The reset

The purveyors of one-world centralized government seem to believe that all persons and States are completely interchangeable.
The corporatocracy seems to believe that all tariffs are evil.
"Even in 1947 the average tariff levied by GATT members on trading partners was 22%. By 1999, the average tariff of WTO nations was 5%. They have dropped ever since."
The corporatocracy foolishly believed that it should end it's subsidies to the State. Outsourcing to the lowest labor cost producer may have been seen as a good idea, but, it drove down wages. The global economy has stalled out because all the money is stuck in the upper loop.

At the same time, only 6 States have benefited from globalization. Germany has a $1 trillion surplus capital account. The rest of Europe has a $1 trillion deficit. The corporatocracy (including the banks) has skimmed off so much money that the economy can't function. The rich just can't spend enough. The rest of us have cut back on non-essential expenses,,, like having children. The upper loop needs uninterrupted growth in consumption to finance uninterrupted growth in the debt pile. The lower loop is shrinking in every way.
Emergent globalism just cut our income that much faster.

"As Wall Street soared, unions in Western nations were decimated. Deregulated, global capital flows surged, while less intrepid labor was left in place to be exploited. The passage of David Rockefeller’s Caribbean Basin Initiative established Haiti as a low-wage platform for the western hemisphere, while China quickly became the cheap labor camp of the east.
Currency manipulations by City of London bankers kept the game lucrative for their multinational corporate tentacles."

"Unprotected by tariffs, African farmers lost their land as fast as US family farms did, giving way to a toxic GMO corn and soybean-based agribusiness model dominated by Cargill, Monsanto, ADM, Bunge, Syngenta & Bayer. Wages stagnated in the deindustrialized US Rust Belt as corporations moved their production facilities to China and Mexico."
"Not content with their ill-gotten riches, the new Robber Barons proposed yet more free trade agreements including Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), Transatlantic Free Trade Area (TAFTA), U.S.–Middle East Free Trade Area (US-MEFTA) & Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)."

"There has been a direct correlation between the meteoric rise of stock markets since the early 1980’s and “free trade”. There has been an inverse correlation between both the stock boom and free trade, and an increase in global poverty, starvation, concentration of wealth and environmental ruin."

Just as no State can afford to have a gold-backed currency, no State can afford to raise wages internally.

"According to Schiff, the US Federal Reserve is propping up the markets to urge people to spend more"
What if they just don't have any money?

History shows that (in general) a State MUST abandon the gold standard to get a war going. Recent history shows that the Anglo-American banking powers are the instigators of the necessary credit excesses for most of the recent wars. Bretton Woods was a curse on the R.O.W. because it attracted the very WORST elements to American government.
Did the banks start the wars for the State. Did that State start the wars for the banks? OR, did the 2 of them put the right (wrong) people in place to churn up a war?
Churchill, "I think a curse should rest on me — because I love this war. I know it's smashing and shattering the lives of thousands every moment — and yet — I can't help it — I enjoy every second of it. "

MUCH of today's financial problems are blamed on Keynes. In one way, he is blameless. Instead of a gold standard, he advocated for the "bancor", an international credit instrument much like the SDR. He lost out to Harry Dexter White, a Lithuanian jew.
Jew Corrupter: Harry Dexter White -- Soviet Mole, Created IMF - Bretton Woods - World Bank for Jewry

If Keynes had gotten his way, America would not have been able to run a huge deficit,,, that allowed war financing.
A Soviet Spy at the Center of Bretton Woods: Harry Dexter White
The Dulles Brothers, Harry Dexter White, Alger Hiss, and the Fate of the Private Pre-War International Banking System
On Harry Dexter White and Pearl Harbor — Crooked Timber
Steil's book, that Harry Dexter White caused US intervention in World War II,

"It shows how the international monetary system established at Bretton Woods contributed decisively to broaden balance of payments disequilibria. It argues, moreover, that the International Clearing Union proposed by Keynes would have been far more appropriate to avoid the build-up of such imbalances, being characterized by radically different features from those of the Bretton Woods system, namely: an international unit of account, distinct from all national currencies"

"an international unit of account, distinct from all national currencies; a symmetric distribution of the burden of readjustment between debtor and creditor countries; a criterion to detect chronic disequilibria and to correct exchange rates accordingly. Finally, this chapter suggests that the principles of the Keynes plan could contribute to reform financial institutions today with a view to face current imbalances, globally and within the euro area."
Why Not Bancor?: Keynes’s Currency Plan as a Solution to Global Imbalances - Oxford Scholarship
The SDR will never fly because it is created by the same criminals who created the IMF.

What does that leave to kill off the credit imbalances that are a necessary prelude to war.
Here is what General de Gaulle had to say;
"Naturally, the smooth termination of the gold-exchange standard, the restoration of the gold standard, and supplemental and interim measures that might be called for, in particular with a view to organizing international credit on this new basis, will have to be deliberately agreed upon between countries, in particular those on which there devolves special responsibility by virtue of their economic and financial capabilities."

General Charles de Gaulle, February 1965
The U.S. dollar is currently the reserve currency. As missiles and directed-energy weapons get that much more powerful, the world realizes that it must end war. A new gold standard is the weapon of choice to keep States from domestic credit expansions, leading to war.
Globalism is a dead issue because of the "giant sucking sound". At the same time, the world has to contend with the issues of the pole flip and world cooling.
The Reset;
"As this Secret Reset is rolled out the first thing we are likely to see is imported goods rising significantly the first month (maybe even 20%) and another 20% soon after. The sky could be the limit. The standard of living in America (unless free energy is rolled out) is likely to drop to the level of Mexico over a year or two, maybe faster."
"Some have predicted extreme social unrest in the urban centers of Europe and America, even perhaps the whole World. That is why there is now an obvious RKM effort to lock down all the major cities of the World under the anti-terror, anti-extremism plan Strong Cities which is related to Agenda 21 and the Free Trade Agreements."
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Old 04-08-2018, 09:43 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Deflation on 2 fronts,,, soon to include the EU

"This cycle is an essential dynamic of capitalism. Central banks have attempted to eliminate the contraction phase that acts as the immune system, washing out bad debt and marginal borrowers. This has left the economy saddled with “zombie” corporations and debtors that would be liquidated if monetary policies weren’t enabling their feeble survival.

But even the most powerful central banks can’t force firms and individuals to borrow more money"
" The U.S. has spent the past decade printing "money," inflating asset prices, stoking consumption and revelling in quite a financial mania. Others - our principal competitors - have been in intense preparation. For what is not at this point clear."
They printed FAR more than us.

"Milton Friedman and others referred to the 1920s as the "golden age of capitalism." Were financial and economic structural underpinnings robust in the late-twenties"
INSANE margin debt is NOT an "underpinning".
"Vanguard founder Jack Bogle has been around the block. The 88-year-old investing titan, who is basically the father of passive investing, says this renewed regime of volatility in stocks is uncanny… 'I have never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career. Now that's only 66 years, so I shouldn't make too much about it, but you're right: I've seen two 50% declines, I've seen a 25% decline in one day and I've never seen anything like this before.'"

"Governor Zhou’s public warning was no doubt in response to recent rapid increase of debt which, according to Professor L. Randall Wray, “increased from 162 percent to 260 percent of GDP between 2008 and 2016,” and remains “a topic of discussion, if not deep concern.”
China's state-owned banks told to stop lending to local governments
The PBOC is decelerating. The FED is destroying money. Let the zombies hit the floor.

The EU was ill founded because it didn't have a debt union. They figured that they would just ram it in later. Just like they would ram in a complete loss of sovereignty and democracy. Various states are starting to wake up to the big con job.
The EU plans to create a EU army to keep the malcontents in line.
There is very little time left before the European bond markets collapse.

Zimbabwe has a printing press. Venezuela has a printing press. Illinois does NOT have a printing press.
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Old 04-09-2018, 02:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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China trade,,,sub-prime auto,,,Powell bail-ins

The FED head seems to believe that he can react in time to deteriorating market fundamentals. Here are 2 articles about the unfolding trade war. Both articles are good but, the thing to keep in mind is; EVERYTHING is unfolding at a furious pace.

4/09 Trump suggests China will negotiate over trade spat – CNBC
4/09 Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ tactics face ultimate test with China – Bloomberg

The trade war isn't just about tariffs. Xi has cozied up with Km. This almost negates the America--North Korea summit that is planned. China has downgraded U.S. debt.
America gave submarine technology to Taiwan.
China and Russia are getting ever-closer.
As China and America thrust and parry, somebody may get stabbed.

The money-renting business is far too crowded. To beat out the competition, some renters lower their lending standards. In the sub-prime RE business, they loaned money to anybody who could put an X on a contract. Recently, various lenders have done the same with auto loans.
In the sub-prime RE crash, defaults worked their way up from individuals to lenders to big banks. The wave of default worked it's way up to the top. The GOV just bailed them out. The renters planned it that way. There was no moral or financial hazard.

"The Chicago Tribune story also provides evidence for a prediction I made in 2015: "America's Next Subprime Crisis Will Be Car Loans."

Powell said that no bank is too big to fail. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jer...ard/1511884737
"Put simply, according to current proposals the next time a financial firm gets into trouble, the Fed won’t come running with a bail out. Instead, the FDIC will seize the bank and then use the capital from shareholders and bondholders to “prop it up” before breaking it apart into separate entities"
"During this speech, Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve no longer has the authority to directly bail out a failing bank, stating, “Dodd-Frank eliminated the authority used by the Federal Reserve and other regulators to bail out individual institutions during the crisis, including Bear Stearns, Citicorp, Bank of America and AIG.”

So if the Powell Fed is not in the bail out business anymore… who is?
Shareholders and bondholders."

LIBOR has gone up because the banks don't trust each other. If there is no prospect of a bailout for a big bank, OTHER lenders will know this. News gets around. The sharks will short the weak bank and, it will all be over with in a couple of days.
Fed Chair Powell Literally Wrote The Book On Bank 'Bail-Ins
So, as auto loan delinquencies work their way up the financial chain, lenders will start crashing. The speed of the contagion will be super-luminal.
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:16 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Banking is great for the bankers

Here is an article by Armstrong decrying the absolute stupidity of the Swiss for wanting to limit the banks to only loaning money that they have on deposit..
Keep in mind that Switzerland has been a financial powerhouse for MANY decades. Why is Armstrong's appraisal stupid in itself?
Swiss Narrowly Vote to Drop Gold Standard - The New York Times
Apr 19, 1999

Switzerland had great financial success and stability for the whole time that the State was on the gold standard. The private sector is, of course, a different animal. The Swiss bankers are known for great self-discipline.
But, NO, the bankers wanted to inflate every nook and cranny of the money supply.

Greenspan convinced congress that they must get rid of the Glass-Steagal act so that American banks could be competitive with London bankers.

"The key changes to legislation that occurred in 1982 is the UK let banks muscle into the mortgage market that was previously dominated by building societies. This was sold in terms of improving competition in the mortgage market, to the benefit of house buyers"
"But its most profound impact was something much more insidious: it enabled the creation of credit money to fuel rising house prices, setting off a feedback loop that only ended in 2008. "
"Building societies don’t create money when they lend, because they lend from a bank account that stores the accumulated savings of their members"

"However, banks do create money when they lend, because a bank records a loan as their asset when they make an identical entry in the borrower’s account, which enables the property to be bought. This dramatically inflates the price of housing, since, as the politicians themselves acknowledge – housing supply is inflexible, so prices increase far more than supply."
"And it has to break down, because the only way to sustain it is for debt to continue rising faster than income."
U.K. https://3r8md7174doo44lgpk3kou79-wpe...dit-Change.png
Same in the U.S. https://3r8md7174doo44lgpk3kou79-wpe...dit-Change.png
It is an EXCELLENT article whether your in the U.K. or not. It shows that the inflation train leaves the station right from the bank.

This is what the IMF has to say, "The paper fails, however, to find a causal relationship running from CBI(ndependence) to inflation."
It's the same story in Canada. They had next to nothing in the way of price inflation until they got a central bank.
St. Louis FED, "The willingness of governments to force their central banks to print excessive amounts of money, or put in place policies that lead to higher inflation rates over time, has been termed the "inflation bias" of discretionary monetary policymaking."
Notice that all this reporting is about the Central bank. It is the private banks that create the money supply.

In the runup to the 2008 crash, the banks created truckloads of bad loans knowing that they could just schlep them off to investors. They had no skin in the game of creating loans. The banking industry wants NO limitations on loan creation. Have they thought about limitations to loan repayment? They automatically assume that they are too important to the system. Powell has said that they are not.

The same thing happened in the student loan business. GOV could have made the loans directly. NOPE, the banks had to get a piece of the action.
The bankers have always counted on : privatising the gains and socialising the losses.
Lemon socialism - Wikipedia
The sentiment was earlier expressed in the adage "Socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor", which was in use by the 1960s, though the notion of privatizing profits and socializing losses dates at least to 1834

This has given (faux) capitalism a bad name. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/08/toda...eplace-it.html
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:50 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Taking the new road with the old road map

Much of the world switched over from a currency that was backed by something of value to, a currency that was "backed" by debt. Value couldn't be endlessly created. Debt obviously can be. The bankers like it that way. BUT, much of the economic laws that apply to a currency with value do not apply to a currency with negative value.

"These people are just amazingly stupid or just too lazy to do the real research. Back then, Japan was the largest holder of US debt. They had bought the debt to try to ease trade friction. When they buy US debt, that runs through the Capital Account – not the Current Account. However, the interest they earn goes back out through the Current Account. Hence, the more debt they buy to ease the trade deficit, actually makes it worse."
"The situation is just hopeless. Nobody will listen and they just like yelling about things that make absolutely no logical sense."

"based entirely upon foreign exchange predicated upon the metal content of the coinage rather than full faith and credit in a government. As a result, the theory of inflation that dominates modern thinking remains tied to the old world monetary system BEFORE based upon CURRENCY compared to the modern system which is CREDIT BASED dependent upon the full faith and trust of a political government rather than a currency based system."
"This is why our modern ideas of Quantitative Easing have FAILED to produce inflation for the monetary system today is CREDIT BASED rather than CURRENCY BASED. Exchange rates are no longer dependent upon metal content, but instead, they are based upon the perception of the government and the resulting CONFIDENCE"
"We are completely lost in the canyons of our mind and yet we do not even understand that we are lost."

"They typically call the dollar to collapse and gold will soar. They look at historical charts without understanding the economics behind them. Yes, you see gold rally between 1930 and 1932 so they forecast gold will rally with the collapse of the dollar and the stock market. However, 1931 was the Sovereign Debt Crisis where most of the world permanently defaulted on their National Debts. The USA did not."
MORE LIES. America did a partial default by lowering the value of the dollar. It went from 1/20 of an ounce of gold to 1/35 of an ounce of gold. The final default was when Nixon cut it loose entirely. Don't tell me that we never defaulted.

"When you are on a gold standard, then tangible assets drop in terms of currency so yes gold rises. But when you are NOT on a gold standard, then gold is just a tangible asset that declines against the currency along with everything else" Just a tangible asset.

" The Fed is nothing like the Bank of Japan (BoJ) or even the ECB. In the case of Japan, their debt has always been primarily held domestically. You could not issue even a private note in Japanese yen without prior approval of the Ministry of Finance. Japan has maintained a controlled economy. The ECB has followed that direction. It is illegal to short Eurozone bonds. In both cases, they believe if they control the financial markets they can prevent a crash and this supports the political agenda."

Russia is in a pickle. Much of their debt is dollar-denominated.
China can devalue the Yuan and crash American markets. At the same time, servicing dollar loans gets MUCH more expensive.

4/09 Bond traders about to grasp magnitude of Treasuries deluge – Bloomberg
4/09 Trump’s trade war threatens central bank `put,’ Deutsche says – Bloomberg
Powell already said, no put.
4/09 “In the next recession, the S&P will drop below 666” – Zero Hedge How did they come up with that particular number?
4/09 Fox News now the least trusted network – Haaretz Haaretz is the official voice of the israeli secret police.
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Old 04-11-2018, 12:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Historic view of muslims in Europe

I need lots of history for this post. I'll get to the point eventually.
To get an idea of just what the muslim invasion of Europe means to the Europeans, you have to look back in history.
In 846, the Arabs raided Rome. In 1453, the Turks invaded Constantinople and ended the Eastern Roman Empire. They grew in power and attacked Europe culminating in the Siege of Vienna in 1529. Later, in 1683, the Ottoman Turks attacked again. They swept through Eastern Europe and fought the biggest battle, again in Vienna. They were defeated but, there was still 16 more years of fighting.
The muslim conquest of India is variously said to have started in 1000 and also in 1204. It went on for about 800 years.

Use this as a backdrop for the current push by Merkel, et al to force muslims into the heart of Europe. Merkel is trying to accomplish what Suleiman the Magnificent could not do.
"The Muslim invasion crossed from Istanbul through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, to Austria. That event still lives on in the memories of the people in that region that Western Europe does not respect.

Little by little, the European Project is being torn apart all because of the Refugee Crisis that was begun by Markel without ever putting anything to a vote for all of Europe who must suffer simply because Merkel tried to divert her critics from Greece."
"After all, it was 1683 when the Turks invaded the Holy Roman Empire and sought to conquer Europe with the Battle of Vienna."
This is part of the reason that the EU is tearing itself apart.

"This entire confrontation with Russia has been orchestrated by the military aided by Hillary. I have warned that the mere fact that Russia invaded Syria precisely on the day of the ECM was a warning call to all of us to wake up and smell the roses before the lid of the coffin is closed. The entire Refugee Crisis began just weeks into this ECM wave when Merkel stood up with open arms to divert her negative press for refusing to forgive any debt with Greece. Then, the Washington Times wrote on September 10th, 2015, “Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” The entire refugee crisis was created by Merkel as a diversion because Germany was being viewed as the harsh enforcer of loans to Greece."

"This means that the likelihood of the coming Pi target on November 21st, 2018 has a higher potential to be linked (1) to the Middle East, and (2) to Russia."
" (1) the consolidation should end, (2) we have the Monetary Crisis Cycle in play, (3) the Pension Crisis is beginning cascading into a Sovereign Debt Crisis, (4) interest rates will rise even faster with war, and (5) the prospects of the Pi target, which is normally geopolitical rather than economic, also comes into play."

There is no way to give economic projections without considering what would happen if a war occurred. Whether in Iran or Syria, or more likely, Pakistan & India.
Europe is committing suicide by muslim where 28 million invaders came in on a red carpet.
USA: Muslim “refugees” – 91.4% on food stamps, 68.3% on Cash Welfare
So, what are they going to do when the crunch hits?
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Old 04-11-2018, 03:12 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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If you don't have a printing press, you're screwed,,, 16.6 million missing persons

Stockman has a rant about the new FED head, Powell. It's not particularly justified. The second part of the article is very interesting.
"trend gain computes to just 2,914 new Breadwinner jobs per month!

Stated differently, since January 2001 the US has generated just 15.4 million new jobs and 96% of them have been in the Part-Time Economy "
"manufacturing output is still well below its November 2007 level"
"The truth is, exports during the most recent month were almost exactly where they were 6 years ago in September 2012,"
"real net business investment was still 28% below its year 2000 level as of 2016, and last year (2017) the number (which the St. Louis Fed has not yet posted) actually went down."

"So rather than a "strong" labor market, what we really have is one that is failing miserably. As Jeffrey Snider so cogently pointed out after the March jobs report, there are actually 16.6 million "missing" workers. Indeed, after 24 million of population growth since November 2007, the US has generated only 5 million full-time jobs."
Contra Corner » Jerome Is The New Janet: Tie, Trousers And Same Old Keynesian Jabberwocky

Most of this can be blamed on the inflationary policies of the FED and the private banks. We priced ourselves out of the world labor market. This created an opportunity for low-wage competitors to move in.

The private sector uses profits from good, old fashioned capitalism to operate and stay in business. If you take away their operating capital, they go out of business. The State considers tax payers to be an inexhaustible source of money. Oregon is a poor State. Jobs are so important their that they don't even allow you to pump your own gas.
Oregon Governor Brown has just signed a bill to tax an extra $1 billion on small businesses. She is a Democrat, in name only. She has no desire to tax big business.

4/10 Global debt jumped to record $237 trillion last year – Bloomberg
Keep in mind that debt can only be paid off by the productive people. The average banker, stockbroker or investor doesn't create any tangible wealth. The State siphons off wealth for consumption.
"The short version of the quote is offered as a warning that a slow, steady accumulation of debt with no particular plan for repayment can continue longer than expected, and then suddenly descend into a full-blown financial distress scenario and a rapid end-state of collapse."
"The question is whether the U.S. is now at the point of “suddenly” going bankrupt. Of course, the U.S. won’t actually go bankrupt. It can print all the money it needs to pay off its debts in nominal terms. The issue then is a matter of when that kind of money printing becomes necessary, and under what conditions."

4/10 U.S. deficit to surpass $1 trillion two years ahead of estimates – Bloomberg

"Outstanding credit card debt topped a record $1 trillion in the fourth quarter.
Americans packed on more than $92 billion in new credit card debt in 2017, the most since 2007.
We racked up more than $67 billion in credit card debt in the fourth quarter alone"
"How much does the average American family owe on their credit cards at the end of last year?

A record $8,600 per household — 6% more than in 2016.

The scary part? The figure, according to the study’s creators, “is $138 higher than the level WalletHub has identified as being sustainable.”"
"According to the Fed study, total household debt (car loans, credit cards, student loans and mortgages) hit $13.15 trillion (yes, trillion) in 2017/Q4.

That figure tops the 2008/Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion."
So, just how much default can the system survive? How fast will default work it's way up the financial ladder?
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Old 04-12-2018, 04:09 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Debt as far as they can see.

"the U.S. won’t actually go bankrupt. It can print all the money it needs to pay off its debts in nominal terms."
Pox Americana does not pay off it's big creditors with money. It pays them with Treasury bonds and agency paper. What if nobody WANTS treasury bonds?
"While the Bid to Cover dropped from 2.50 to 2.46, below the 2.49 six auction average, what was surprising was the sharp drop in foreign, "Indirect" bidders, which slumped to just 53.2% of the final award, down sharply from 66.2% in March and 66.6% six month average. "
OK, so foreign bidders seem to be running away. Will some mysterious buyer drop in and buy up everything? Is that a thing of the past?
Powell wants to raise rates to attract foreign capital. Never mind that rates above <3.4%> will crash the domestic economy.
America just has too much debt.

Every Working American Owes $ 1.5 Million
Here is a graph of margin debt vs the S&P 500. You can see that it has rolled over and headed down. Just as it does before every recession. Just like in the '29 crash, too much credit was advanced in the stock market. The unwind will be faster this time.

"Republicans and Democrats alike have embraced more debt every single year since 1957. Despite incessant claims to the contrary, even the Clinton Administration saw an increase in the Federal Debt every single year."
Hey, the bureaucrats need a LOT of money.
"he federal debt would decrease as a percentage of GDP until 1974. However the debt was never paid down and debt growth accelerated once again after 1974. Its absolute value has increased every year since 1957, now standing at $19.9 trillion or 105% of GDP."
In total, the US has run a cumulative $12.3 trillion in deficit spending since 1947. During the same period of time the US has paid $12.5 trillion in interest expenses.

"As the charts below show, if the US government had stopped borrowing and saved its surpluses, no federal debt would have been needed between 1947 and 2016 to meet actual program expenses. In fact, today we would have a $200 billion in a rainy day fund and no debt. Instead we have a federal debt of $19.9 trillion and massive budget deficits. Let that soak in for a minute."
"The US has been paying an average of 1.7% of GDP every year since 1947 in interest expenses on the federal debt, more than enough to cover its deficits. The US federal government has fallen into a trap of borrowing to pay its debts."
YES, but, the bankers love us.
"It may sound crazy but the US interest expense is the very reason we have a federal debt."
The US Federal Debt - A Losing Proposition - The Sounding Line

Because of various factors, Americans had a high standard of living after WW II. We had all the necessary resources and most of the manufacturing capacity. The '60s were the high point of our standard of living. The R.O.W. rebuilt their manufacturing. The cost of international shipping fell. This cost went off a cliff when containerized shipping too off. Everybody could underbid us. The banks just extended our credit terms and we coasted along. we have reached the point where debt service is eating up too much of our income.

4/11 Stocks haven’t seen this much volatility since the financial crisis – CNBC
4/11 Volatility following bear’s script for 60% tumble in stock market – MarketWatch
4/11 Wholesale inventory build continues as retail sales flounder – Mish

My wallet floundered also.
4/10 Trump is sparking the crisis needed to fix unfair global trade – MarketWatch
Someone is confused. What looks like a big roll of fuse is actually,,,, a big roll of det-cord.

4/11 Wall St’s connection to FBI’s raid on Trump’s lawyer – Phil’s Stock World I'm shocked, I tell you.

When Shell got the very first lease to explore for oil, they had to pay in silver. Abdulaziz personally counted it out. In the '70s, we put a gun to the head of Saudi Arabia and told them that they were selling oil in dollars only. They spent 10% of their budget on arms. They also recycled their oil money into U.S. treasuries. Jim Willie said that they also bought a lot of gold and that the English and American bankers stole same gold.

"USGovt gold lease reneged upon followed by massive dumping for Fannie Mae bonds which resulted in the Lehman failure and Chinese confiscation of the JPMorgan HQ property with mixed USFed monetary policy like Operation Twist, the absent gold reserves for the USGovt all stolen by Bush & Clinton & Rubin,"
The Chinese got the biggest gold repository in NYC.
GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"
The Saudis now seem to be on the wrong side. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/0...-Saudi-Arabia-

Iran is changing their reporting currency from the dollar to the Euro.
The U.S. GOV puts out all the BS statistics not to convince Americans. it puts out rosy forecasts to keep foreign buyers coming to treasury auctions.

Last edited by Danny B; 04-16-2018 at 04:04 AM. Reason: spellign
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Old 04-12-2018, 03:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The crash of socialism,,, once again

"To each, as to his needs,,, from each, as to his abilities" This is the mantra of socialism. This creates a disconnect between a person's needs and, their productive ability. Unrestrained by a lack of ability, their needs grow to enormous demands. Those with the least ability (or motivation) need the most. Those with the most motivation and/or abilities get proportionately, the least returns.

"The idea was that state ownership of the means of production would alleviate the so-called unfairness of an exploitative market economy and provide equally for everyone. This equitable distribution of wealth would be guaranteed by a dictatorship of the proletariat. To finance this economic idyll, socialism would use the surpluses available under still-existing capitalist regimes. That was Marx’s plan. No one asked why it was only capitalist countries that had this marvelous surplus and why it would take a dictatorship to assure its benevolent and equitable distribution."

"The first reality checks were conducted by two Austrian economists, F. A. Hayek and Ludwig von Mises. They rightly pointed out that the complexities of a modern economy and the variables of market forces could not be planned and predicted by a group of appointed technocrats.

Hayek and von Mises were proven correct as, throughout the 1940s and 1950s, the Soviet Union encountered failure after failure. By then, Russian’s inability to feed its own citizens resulted in unprecedented famine.Over 1 million people starved to death."

"The failure of the Soviet Union is that socialism has its roots in failure. It is designed to fail. The great Soviet experiment turned into the Big Lie. It promised prosperity and delivered misery. It guaranteed a livelihood and oversaw the famine death of millions. The only promise socialism has kept is that it has brought about equality – an equal amount of despair to all who encounter it."
"socialism provides an initial illusion of success before it collapses on its own faulty principles. It’s that brief illusion that can make socialism so seductive to many who feel they are missing out on life’s abundance. "
" Venezuela provides a graphic reminder. It was once the fourth-wealthiest country in the world. Now, people are starving to death due to lack of food. It still has one of the world’s largest oil reserves, but it lacks toilet paper."
Socialism Always Ends in Disaster - Gold Telegraph

" The Brussels empire is crumbling before our eyes and with each and every step, the EU Commission is moving to eliminate free markets because they have been moving against the dreams of the EU Project"
"They obviously hate democratic votes when they go against their goals and this is why they want to go fully into the EU which has also eliminated democracy since their leaders are also all unelected running Brussels machine to subjugate all of Europe with the same goal of Napoleon and Hitler – to create the United States of Europe. They appropriately called the deal would keep Britain shackled in a ‘Hotel California’ Brexit – one where you can check out anytime but you just can’t leave?"

"Indeed, our models agree that the EU must be seen as an empire and the member states are just vassals no different from the Soviet Union,"
"Not a single empire has ever survived because centralized control and dictatorship is unable to comprehend the difference within the economic trends of its vassal state empire."
"the models used to analyse the risk of the fall of empires is surprisingly simple. The risk of collapse in empires is when the complexity of a central government reduces the benefits of individuals in a society. It emerges when the government sees itself as the sovereign nation and the people as the great unwashed economic slaves to be exploited."

"The entire project has been a con-job. They introduced the currency FIRST and believed they would gradually move to federalize Europe thereafter. "
"Nobody in their right mind would have begun a country with such a model. This is why the European Project is going down in flames and the very thing they convinced themselves was the real purpose, to end European wars, they have ignited the old hatreds that have existed within Europe for thousands of years."
"All the manipulation tactics in the world will not save the Euro. They have made it illegal to short Eurozone bonds. The currency will be next."

"The entire period leading into World War I was a period of extreme socialism. This is when the world was enamored with Karl Marx. "
" It was this openness of global financial markets prior to the war that led to the closure of stock markets. Europe will do the same so beware. It is important to understand what took place because history will REPEAT going forward in Europe."
"Differences in exchange rates between countries were arbitraged according to the shifts in CONFIDENCE with respect to nations by buying and selling bonds in different markets."
"this is why the European governments shut down the markets. This was the check and balance based upon CONFIDENCE in their governments. "

Draghi leaves in December. He is hoping and praying that the European bond market survives that long. Apparently NATO hopes to get a war going very soon. This would paralyse all markets. An attack on Iran would bring oil distribution to a halt. The Eurocrat socialists risk turning all of Europe into a battleground to divert attention from the collapse of socialism.
Socialism crashed the central planned economy of the U.S.S.R. It looks like socialism will soon crash the centrally planned economy of the Union of European Socialist Republics.
"when the complexity of a central government reduces the benefits of individuals in a society" This definition makes the USA also susceptible to dissolution.
4/12 Investors must brace for deeper pain than Trump envisions – NewsMax
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Old 04-13-2018, 02:21 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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War and markets

Celente, "Specifically, last December we wrote in the Trends Monthly:

"As quantitative data proves, the price-earnings ratio to stocks are approaching 1929/dot-com crash territory. Beyond prevailing economic fundamentals, the black swan event we forecast, the outbreak of war in the Middle East and beyond, will melt down markets…"
That wild card event is upon us. And from a fact-based, trend-tracking perspective, not only is the Middle East on the brink of greater War, trend lines are leading to World War III."
"Will you have enough cash on hand if your government calls a "Bank Holiday" to prevent a run on the banks as currencies crash and fear spreads.

What will you do if a cyber attack hits financial systems, wiping out your digital cash and digital savings stored in banks and equities?"
Ready for War! Are you Prepared?
So, why the big push for war? The bid-to-cover ratio is breaking down. $360 billion in attempted bond sales will do that Investors are inching closer to the door. A mass default cascade would paralyse everything. Would martial law help to stabilize things? The latest bond sales might have just been too much for the markets to choke down. Obviously, Uncle Sam can't pay off his debt. Maybe the markets are afraid that he can't even service the debt.
4/12 CBO: Interest payments will outpace military spending by 2023 – Bloomberg
Rising federal debt: US budget deficit rose 18.4% in March.

The federal debt is $145,000 per household. At what point will everyone desert Uncle Sam?
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Old 04-13-2018, 02:50 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Eurozone meltdown,,, markets are deaf to the drums of war

Things are quiet at the moment. The Eurozone was a great idea as long as it was an informal economic union. When it became a forced political union, the strain was just too much. Lawyers and politicians believe that; they just decree that something is law and, everyone will comply. Germany has a $1 trillion current account surplus. The rest of Europe has a $1 trillion deficit.
Killary spoke of Trump's riches and said, just think of what we could do with that money. I'm sure that Germany is getting nervous about what the socialist Eurocrats may decide about all that "excess" money that Germany has.

Draghi finally came out and said that he was going to print until the cows came home,,,, and then, print while the cows were sleeping.
"Draghi realizes he is trapped and he is trying to hold it together until he leaves so he will not be blamed for the mess he has created in the world economy after he leaves in 2019. I hate to tell him, but I do not think he will win that race out the door before chaos hits."

OK, so what to do? What will the Eurocrats do to try to hold the Eurozone together when it will obviously crash?
" With the Hungary election, Italian election, BREXIT, and Catalonia, the handwriting is on the wall. The EU is crumbling from its undemocratic internal authoritarian power that refuses to yield concerning its European Project to federalize Europe. If the Euro goes, there goes Brussels. They refuse to even concede that they created a nightmare with the Refugee Crisis. Italianer left because he disagreed with the internal policies. Selmayr is known as the “Monster” and this is a desperate turn to force central power upon the whole of Europe."

Here are the big food producers in Europe, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statist...ls%2C_2016.png
35% of the EU budget is for food subsidies. What will happen when the EU collapses?
4/13 CIO of largest bond fund: “We are not alarmist but it’s time to sell” – Zero Hedge
Global debt has hit $233 trillion. It isn't the poor people who are going to satisfy this demand.

It’s Pure Math – We’re Headed for a Train Wreck

Holter also points out the explosion of global debt. Holter charges, “It’s now $237 trillion. The amount of debt grew by $21 trillion globally over the last 12 months. That’s roughly 10 %. How much did global GDP grow? 2% or 3%, I mean that is totally unsustainable.” The biggest worry for Holter right now is escalating military action in Syria. Holter warns, “This is so, so dangerous. Obviously, you worry about a hot war because with the weapons you have today, you could have WWIII start in a heartbeat. But look at the market today. It’s up 400 or 500 points. You have talk of trade wars. You have talk of hot wars. It’s amazing the markets can hold together and ignore potential annihilation.”

"It wouldn’t be hard for Xi to pull that carpet out from under Trump’s feet; it would be costly for China too, but if war were the reality, the rules and priorities change. And you can bet Xi and his people have run through the kinds of scenarios many many times. They’re prepared to “withdraw upon themselves”.

As for the US, the ‘markets are holding on to crazy levels so far despite the threat that hangs in the air, but once the first rockets fly, and gold and bitcoin -oil?- are still available, why hold on to stocks? "
"And besides, which investors are going to say, hell, I feel so patriotic, I’m going to hold on to stocks that have been onvervalued for years already, just to support Bolton and McCain and Tony Blair and Boris Johnson’s fantasies?"
Gold, bitcoin, oil.
1 day ago - The OECD Americas' drop in stocks of crude oil, NGL, and feedstocks was the largest in magnitude at 14.8 Mt. This trend was driven by the start of the United States' multi-year plan in 2017 to reduce crude oil stocks within their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Buy a horse.
Paper dollars and diesel fuel will receive the most demand and, be the best stores of wealth. Gold won't shine in most circumstances.
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Old 04-14-2018, 01:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Minsky, subprime is back,,,Deviation amplifying machine

The British banker's war on Syria is on hold for a few days. We can all make money for a few days more before markets crash.
Charles Huge Smith has an excellent article. It is about how monetary inflation distorts all markets and, results in trade wars.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They're Spreading

Excellent article on the Minsky Moment,
"In particular, over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance." Too many people trying to rent out their money.
"Specifically, Bianco Research defines these “zombies” as companies whose interest expense is greater than their 3-year average EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes). Currently, we face the greatest percentage of “Ponzi units” in at least 20 years."

"It can be shown that if hedge financing dominates, then the economy may well be an equilibrium seeking and containing system. In contrast, the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi finance, the greater the likelihood that the economy is a deviation amplifying system." A crooked casino.
" if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate."
"there are plenty of reasons to believe the wealth effect may be even more powerful to the downside than it was to the upside. "

Sub-prime mortgages are back. BUT, this time is different. The won't do any NINJA loans.
"But it will allow its borrowers to have FICO credit scores as low as 500. The current average for agency-backed mortgages is in the mid-700s. Borrowers can take out loans of up to $1.5 million on single-family homes, townhomes and condominiums. "
4/13 Wells Fargo just reported worst mortgage number since financial crisis – Zero Hedge
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Old 04-14-2018, 02:33 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Banks weakening, no customers,,,, 1987 Déjà vu

Repost, Powell said that no bank is too big to fail. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jer...ard/1511884737
"Put simply, according to current proposals the next time a financial firm gets into trouble, the Fed won’t come running with a bail out. Instead, the FDIC will seize the bank and then use the capital from shareholders and bondholders to “prop it up” before breaking it apart into separate entities"

OK, so, bank investors can look at the roadmap for bank dissolution. They also know that the banks are no longer profitable. When will they start moving to the exits?
"However, sheer profit numbers alone won't be able to drive stock performance
J.P. Morgan was off by more than 2 percent in trading Friday. Wells Fargo dropped nearly 3 percent.

"If you take out the capital markets business and the one-time events, it shows these banks aren't doing any business, and that's the key problem," said Dick Bove, chief strategist at Hilton Capital Management and formerly of the Vertical Group. "If you take a look right across the board, credit cards are down, auto is down, student loans are down, the corporate area is mixed to down.

Indeed, mortgage banking revenue tumbled for both J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. Trading was mediocre at Citigroup, while PNC saw declines in revenue and deposits.
Bove has long railed against conventional wisdom that rising interest rates automatically would benefit banks, and he said Friday's results validated that view.

"If you take these things and ask how is the core banking business doing, it isn't doing. It's not producing higher revenues, because it's not producing more loans," he said.
"It was wrong because interest rates do not drive bank earnings. What does drive bank earnings is what they sell."
JPM had a credit positive first quarter with all franchises showing healthy customer engagement," Arsov said. "This was also supported with particularly favorable performance in the consumer and retail bank
Yeah,,, until they default.

"For the vast majority of banks in the United States, they're not selling anything," Bove said. "If JPM can't sell loans because nobody is interested in buying them, it means people are not buying products"
No kidding,,, Maybe they are out of money and, have maxed out their credit cards
If the banks have no earnings, how long before everybody exits to avoid a bail-in?

FED GOV is borrowing way to much. You can understand that it isn't particularly inclined to pay this back. Armstrong warns everybody to get out of GOV bonds. He warns that the State will just change the maturity dates to suit themselves. Your 90 day paper will magically become 10 year paper. This is where confidence in GOV becomes very important.
4/14 JPM credit card charge-offs surge to six year high – Zero Hedge
This has a bunch of graphs comparing today to the '30s.

"The logic is pretty straightforward from a fundamental point of view, we are at a relationship between the Wilshire GDP ratio which is almost unprecedented historically, where we have a relationship that is historically the Wilshire's 70 to a 100 percent value of GDP,” the investor told The Street."
The Wilshire 5000 is an index that consists of all the stocks that are actively traded in the United States. Following the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, Warren Buffett introduced the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 full-cap index to the US GDP as a measure to evaluate the American economy's overall valuation.

“So if GDP is at $20 billion or at $18 billion, that’s a descent market price. Today we are at 155 percent. The Wilshire is vastly overpriced historically against GDP.
US stock markets are currently passing through the same peaks they faced 11 years ago, right before the massive sell-off that triggered the 2008 financial crisis, according to Phil Town, who sold his stocks before the crash.
Town, who moved back into the markets at the March 2009 low, now expresses deep concerns
You can't argue with his timing.

Market volatility is reminiscent of the 1987 crash: Art Cashin - CNBC.com
Apr 5, 2018 - UBS Financial Services Managing Director Art Cashin said this year's market volatility reminds him of the 1987 stock market crash. "It's a good deal more volatile than almost anything else you've seen,"

Hong Kong Index Looks a Lot Like the Dow Before Black Monday ...
Mar 25, 2018
Stock Market Following EXACT Pattern of 1987 and 1929! What Will ...
Video for stock market looking like 1987▶ 12:46
6 days ago - Uploaded by The Money GPS
Stock Market Following EXACT Pattern of 1987 and 1929! .... This looks more like a healthy correction ...
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Old 04-14-2018, 07:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Willie and Fulford

Here are 2 articles from 2 writers who have access to uncommon information. Both article should be read in detail. Not because they are 100% accurate. Because they give you a view that nobody else has the cohones to present.
Longstanding Chinese War: Intrigue And Betrayal

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Old 04-15-2018, 08:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Negative returns of increased debt

Things are quiet for the moment. Everybody is waiting to see what Russia does after the latest bombing.
Here is a graph of GOV spending,
“The government expenditure multiplier is negative. Based on academic research, the best evidence suggests the multiplier is -0.01, which means that an additional dollar of deficit spending will reduce private GDP by $1.01, resulting in a one-cent decline in real GDP. "
"nearly 75% of every tax dollar goes to non-productive spending. "

"As I noted previously, it now requires $3.71 of debt to create $1 of economic growth which will only worsen"
"In a word, what was a $20 trillion national debt when the Donald arrived in the White House is no longer. Now it’s barreling toward $40 trillion within the next decade."
"The fact that debt and deficits are rising under conditions of full employment suggests a deeper underlying fiscal problem.”
No, it suggests a head full of do-do.
CBO – "Making America More Indebted" | RIA

"While the unemployment rate is close to record lows, the portion of Americans who have a job or want one is also low. "
"People who say they’re out of the labor force on account of disability aren’t counted in the unemployment statistics, which only measure people who have a job or are looking for a job. The 13.8% of working-age adults in West Virginia who are out of the labor force because of a disability,"
The IMF seems to have a problem, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvnchHsgGD8&t=12s
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Old 04-16-2018, 04:03 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The fall of the rial,,, pension problems,, ZIRP poison

Everyone knows that the dollar has lost much of it's purchasing power. The Iranian Rail has gone from 70 to a dollar in 1979 to 60,000 now.
"The rial has lost a third of its value this year alone."
"Rouhani’s administration declared on April 9 that it had set a single rate for the dollar, at 42,000 rials, and anyone carrying more than 10,000 euros ($12,345) would be arrested.

Tehran police reported that 12 “currency market schemers” had been arrested. Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi called for the execution of those “disrupting” Iran’s forex market."

ZIRP is never done because it is so disruptive. They did it anyway. BUT, it only helps a few sectors for a period of about 2 years. Then the poison spreads through the whole system. By that time; the problem that called for ZIRP has only gotten worse. In the meantime every weak sector has become completely dependent on the drug/poison. State GOV is closing down everything and laying off everybody to meet pension payments.

"Of the past 3,400 years, humans have been entirely at peace for 268 of them, or just 8 percent of recorded history."
Russian sanctions will cut off rare earth exports to America. Buy your Neo magnets right away.
Russia Drafts Tit-for-Tat Sanctions on America - Stephen Lendman
North Korea has $15 trillion in rare Earths but, I don't think that we are going to see them.
"Today, 247,977 units — equivalent to more than 11% of all rental apartments in New York City — sit either empty or scarcely occupied, even as many New Yorkers struggle to find an apartment they can afford."

4/16 CBO budget projections worsen at alarming rate – Mish
4/16 Oil prices vulnerable to ‘super spikes’ again as geopolitics heats up – CNBC
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Old 04-17-2018, 03:58 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Notes from Armstrong

Treasury secretary Connaly said, "the dollar is our currency but, your problem. The dollar is spread all over the world.
"The Sovereign Debt Crisis is on schedule to be noticed starting here in 2018. We have 13 governments now who are already in default of their debt payments. There are more than 100 nations who are on the verge of a debt crisis. "
China’s debt to GDP is more than TWICE that of the United States. DEBT is our worst enemy and there are no viable solutions coming forward because anything implied by others is tinkering with the current system. There is no solution is valued circles, other than mine, which calls for the complete revision of the debt system."
"I fear that all we can do is protect ourselves. Nobody is willing to listen to me. When they will, it will be too late. Hence – the crash & burn becomes unavoidable. "

This may sound like a lot of hubris on the part of Armstrong but, I believe that he AND his program are the ONLY solution. "Nobody will scrap the system before it crashes. It is against human nature."

Years ago, new drivers were taught to use the transmission on a downhill,, to preserve the brakes. Gradually, over the years, brakes became better and, transmissions weaker. New drivers are taught to use the brakes and, not strain the transmission.
Years ago, banks were eager to loan money to the State. The State had endless money because of it's taxing authority. 48% of Americans pay no income tax. 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. From beggars to defense contractors. <96 million> people of working age are not in the labor force. Corporate taxes have been rolled way back. The FEDs pumped tons of money into the upper loop of the economy.
Part of this is returned in the form of taxes.

Just the same, tax collection is way down. The compounding nature of GOV debt is starting to runaway from the shrinking nature of tax collection.
"I have been warning for years at the World Economic Conferences that interest expenditures will reach the point that they will crowd out everything else. Well at last, as we enter 2019 and the War Cycle heats up, interest expenditures will now EXCEED even military spending. Welcome to the SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS. "
"The risk is beginning to become obvious as interest expenditures will crowd out everything other areas of spending. Governments will try to keep the debt revolving by raising taxes and this will only further reduce both the economy and our living standards. We are being walled-in by our own debt with no place to go except default if we do not act NOW!!!!!!!"
Armstrong is going off to Europe to try to save the world. I do not say this in jest. The EU project has poisoned Europe and they will NOT work together. He has to try.

Armstrong claims that this is a worldwide crash of socialism. The French government spends 57% of the gdp into circulation. Can that be called anything BUT socialism? Remember that they spend all this money for CONSUMPTION. Money borrowed for consumption is LOST. Armstrong is going to try to get them to cut WAY back on State expenditures and extend repayment terms. The alternative is sovereign debt collapse. They won't agree to do this. That means national default.
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Old 04-17-2018, 04:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Weak dollar,,, more gold,,, less silver

Trump is way out of his area of expertise. He is listening to all the wrong people. Trump said that he wants a weak dollar. Well, he has a weak dollar.
A weak dollar helps exports but, it doesn't attract foreign capital. Trump,put sanctions on Russia that crashed markets. Then, he complained that the Russian Rouble was falling.

“Closing Panama Tax Haven Will Require Fighting the Most Powerful Lobby In the World,” The Real News Network, April 14, 2016.

Economist Michael Hudson says oil and mining industries and the State Department created Panama and Liberia for the express purpose of tax evasion."
Laundering Havens for War Budgets | Michael Hudson

"According to Forbes, the Federal Reserve in 2008 – under the oh! so responsible watch of the Ashkenazi Jew Ben ‘Helicopter’ Bernanke – single-handedly allocated “over $16 Trillion to corporations and banks internationally, purportedly for ‘financial assistance. ”

Other sources put it at close to $30 Trillion, twice the size of America’s GDP. And none of that money has been accounted for. These transactions were only discovered after a “quick audit” that then Congressman Ron Paul miraculously managed to squeeze out of the Fed"

"Now this gets directly to the issue of gold. Watch very carefully when in a week or so the first petro yuan contract comes due on the Shanghai Exchange. You know that countries that sell their oil to China will have to get paid in yuan. If they are a bit shaky on accepting yuan, they can hedge against yuan by taking delivery of gold (not paper delivery but real gold) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange"
Sloppy reporting. If they want to exchange Yuan for gold, the gold must be sourced on the open market. China isn't going to cough up any domestic gold.

The price of gold has being driven down constantly for years. The Chinese have been using U.S. treasury bonds to pay for purchase of gold mines and all other natural resources. If gold were to go up, the Chinese wouldn't be able to buy it and the mines so cheaply. It is in China's best interests to hold down the price of paper-gold because paper gold is used for price discovery of physical gold.
America sends over no-cost dollars to exporters and, gets back lots of good stuff in return. China and Russia print no-cost currency and, get gold in return. They were previously very cautious about not driving up the price. They have bought a LOT more in the last couple of months.

4/16 Global debt bubble hits new high – quadrillion reasons to buy gold – GoldCore
4/17 Global silver scrap supply falls to 26-year low – SRSrocco Report
It's in somebody's pocket
4/17 The first domino falls in Illinois… 400 more funds to follow – Zero Hedge
4/17 Extravagant unfunded pensions for state, local bureaucrats – CNS News
4/17 LA schools facing $15 billion debt for retiree health care – Reason

That's just the schools.
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Old 04-18-2018, 01:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The collapse of CoCos

OK gang, It' reading time again. The banks LOVED loaning money to the State back when it had a huge tax base. The tax base has slipped away at the same time that compound interest is really stacking up. Loaning money to the State is now seen as very risky.
If you pick up a history book and give it a good read, you read about a long chain of events. You RARELY get the idea that all of history is cyclical.
Strauss & Howe wrote Generational Turnings about these cycles. Burning Platform has 2 recent articles about The fourth Turning. It is worth reading both article to get a feel for where we are in these cycles.
Part one, https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...r-is-coming-2/
Part two, https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...ming-part-two/

Current FED head Powell wrote the book on bail-ins where the bondholders and stockholders will be bailed-in to rescue the banks. You can imagine that those 2 groups are nervously eyeing the door.
"According to one recent Bloomberg article, the next crisis will begin in the private bank debt market.

The specific culprit is a kind of debt called “contingent convertible” debt, or “CoCos.” These bonds start out like ordinary debt, but a bank in distress could convert them to equity to improve its capital ratios.

The problem is that bondholders know this and start dumping the bonds before the bank can pull the trigger on the conversion clause. This can cause a run on the bank and trigger cross default clauses in other bonds. Far from adding safety to bank capital structures, CoCos can make banks more unstable by igniting panics."
"The bottom line is that today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever. Each crisis is bigger than the one before. Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the banking system and have much larger derivatives books."
"These kinds of sudden, unexpected crashes that seem to emerge from nowhere are entirely consistent with the predictions of complexity theory.

In complex dynamic systems such as capital markets, risk is an exponential function of system scale. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses. "
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Old 04-18-2018, 02:07 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The BLOB State,,, kingdom divided,,, public retirement funds

Definition of the deep state, "What is this mysterious “Deep State?” How does it operate? Who is behind it? Well… it depends.

An instructive article in the “Moyers & Co.,” by pundit Mike Lofgren, addressed the question under the heading: “Anatomy of the Deep State?” He wrote: there is “another government concealed behind the one that is visible…a hybrid of public and private institutions ruling the country according to a consistent pattern…The state within a state is hiding mostly in plain sight…In terms of its scope…the American hybrid state, the Deep State, is in a class by itself and relentlessly well entrenched.”

I need a new term and, have settled on the BLOB STATE.
The blob state is not the power-mongers who start wars and ruin economies. The blob state is comprised of the millions of paper shufflers who sit in government offices and make miserable the lives of the average person.
"School administrators' average salaries in New York over the past three years have increased more than four times those of public school teachers in the Empire State. For this school year, wages for administrators jumped to $146,652"
The blob state has a lot of administrative control over things like retirement packages.
"The really scary part is that pension debt keeps increasing despite the fact that taxpayers' contributions to state-level pension plans have doubled as a share of state revenue in the past decade."
America's Sinking Public Pension Plans Are Now $1.4 Trillion Underwater - Hit & Run : Reason.com
The public pensions are $1.4 trillion in the hole. So, how are they going to pay for pensions? Remember that the court system is part of the public administration.
This is a good article. The courts have insisted that pensions can't be diminished,,, Natch! The courts have now ordered / allowed the State controller to GARNISH the tax revenues of the municipality.
Only 4 States are adequately funded. Nationwide, we will see public funds raided constantly to fund the retirees of the blob state. I'm not talking about teachers and cops. I'm talking about the huge "overburden" (worthless dirt) of administrators that had to be managers because they had no abilities.
This is the slowly unfolding war between retirees and workers.

In Matthew 12:22-28, Jesus tells the Pharisees: Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand.
"North Korea is watching. And you know what it sees? It sees a house divided. It sees an America that is perhaps as divided against itself as it was prior to the civil war. An America that elects a president and then initiates multiple investigations against him that are kept going seemingly indefinitely. An America where hatred of one’s fellow countrymen and -women has become the norm.

An America that has adopted a Shakespearian theater as its political system, where all norms of civil conversation have long been thrown out the window, where venomous gossip and backstabbing have become accepted social instruments. "
"The attack on Syria is seen as a sign of weakness. Because there was no need for it. "
"What the world sees is bluster emanating from a deeply divided nation (and we haven’t even tackled Britain)"
That’s how all empires end. Complacency and division. That is what North Korea sees when it watches America, what China, and Russia see. And they may even know how Jesus put it. He didn’t just say a kingdom divided would become less powerful or wealthy, he said:
Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation."

It's not just America, https://www.quora.com/Why-do-some-ul...flag-of-Israel

4/17 Optimism of manufacturers “plunged” the most ever: NY Fed – Wolf Street
4/17 How Libor’s surge will help pop the global bubble – Real Investment Advice

The bail-in is like a hyena hiding in the bushes. Nobody knows who it will eat. The banks don't want to lend to each other.
4/17 Macron warns of European ‘civil war’ over growing east-west divide – Yahoo! He finally noticed.
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Old 04-18-2018, 02:48 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Banks fading away

Bankers don't actually produce anything. But, it is a lucrative business and everybody wanted to get into the business of renting money. The banks had their depositors money but, everybody else had to use personal money. When money no longer had any intrinsic value, investors could create it willy-nilly. But, when money had no value, all it became was information. This made it very easy to create far more "information" than there were tangible goods represented by this information. In the information age, there is little need for banks.

Banking sector will be ground zero for job losses from AI and robotics
Future of Fintech: Will the Banks Disappear?
“I Expect That Within the Next 10 Years, Probably Half of the Banks Will be Gone”

Without the recent tax reduction, bank earnings would have been down.
Super Mario Draghi is from Goldman Sachs. He was installed to make sure that the ECB rescued all the private banks. Having mush in his head, instead of brains, he never considered that NOBODY could rescue the ECB.
As a typical banker, he is only concerned with creating money. He has no particular concern about creating wealth.

4/18 Yield curve continues to collapse – Zero Hedge
4/18 Morgan Stanley warns investors that best times are over – Bloomberg
4/18 Fed’s Williams: Inverted yield curve is a powerful recession sign – Bloomberg

4/18 Retail bankruptcies just hit an all-time high — and these 18 are next – MSN
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Old 04-19-2018, 03:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Storing labor & “coincidence of wants”

Here is an article where Lloyd Blankfein (doing gods work) says that the CBs are buying up all the risky assets.

Here is an interesting comment;
"The risky assets are the low hanging fruit. If I create a fiat money with no intrinsic value then what do I care if the paper goes bad? All I care about is how much labor-value can be harvested from the faux asset that I paid nothing for in the first place.

If I had to pay in gold, then and only then will I have a problem with risk. My gold required labor to produce.

It blows me away that people can't wrap their minds around the lack of authenticity of paper. It's obsolete and was so decades ago. You aren't worth a bag of puss on paper !!! "
If you read the annual reports from 38,000 State bodies, they already own very large chunks of all the markets.
CAFR1 Home Page
The State steals our money AND prints free money to buy up real assets. Just how much of the overall economy is owned by the State?

"Many consider Gold to be a barbarous relic of the past. Others say gold offers a poor investment return.
But you know what gold does best? It forces bankers and the government to rob you out in the open where everyone can see.

The current monetary system was designed specifically to hide the theft of your wealth from you."
"Much to the surprise of US citizens even the US Constitution declares that only gold and silver can be used as money in the United States:"
So what makes gold and silver a good store of value?

The problem that the laborer wants to solve is how does he store the value of his labor?
The reason the laborer wants to store the value of his labor is because of a problem called the “coincidence of wants”.

You live in a system where dollars (or other fiat currency) are used as a store of value, but let us imagine a system that does not yet have a store of value, so that we can better understand the problem that dollars are trying to solve.

A carpenter who makes tables and chairs from wood can save up the tables and chairs he makes, store them in a warehouse, and later trade them for food.
When the tables and chairs are in the warehouse they represent a store of the value the carpenter’s labor that he put into making them.
Later he can trade the tables and chairs for other items, such as food.
But what if the farmer does not need tables or chairs and the carpenter is hungry?
The problem of having an item to trade but not being able to find someone who “wants” the item is called the “coincidence of wants” problem.

Since food products tend to spoil relatively quickly the carpenter has to find someone to trade his tables and chairs to when he is hungry.
To solve the problem of trade and trying to find people who want your items exactly when you need some particular item people choose to use an “intermediary” item as a “store of value.”
The carpenter can trade his chairs for gold whenever someone wanting chairs shows up at his door, **and** at any later time the carpenter can, when he is hungry, trade his gold to the farmer for food.

It is the farmer’s willingness to trade food for gold and the carpenter’s willingness to trade tables and chairs for gold, that solves the “coincidence of wants” problem.
It is hard to believe today, but US dollars were originally receipts for gold that you had on deposit at a bank.
Until 1914, US dollars were receipts for gold and silver. They were receipts redeemable on-demand in gold or silver.
Why does that date ring a bell?

Gold is a store of value for the laborer, especially, the farmer, because his produce deteriorate rapidly. Centuries ago, the banker stored deposits and, matched up people with excess wealth and, people who needed capital for investment.
When man operated draft animals or machinery, he received the excess labor value that resulted. As more and more of the machines are owned by capital, rather than by labor, the excess value created only benefits capital. This creates an ever-increasing mismatch between the consumptive power of the laborer and, the tangible wealth created by capital.
Capital attempts to make up for falling business by reducing it's costs,,, like labor. The State tries to step in and fix things by pumping in more debt money. The State is underwriting capital by buying up shares. At the same time, the State is trying to underwrite labor with a safety net. This is a temporary fix to try to save labor.
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:47 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fiscal gap,,, yield curve,,,smoke and BS

There is definitely a lot going on but, it is difficult to see past the fog of BS. When Trump tries to make America first, he is forcing globalism out of the top spot. The globalists don't like this. They will break and ignore ANY law if it helps to bring down Trump. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/u...cracy-v-trump/

The British House of Lords is making a big move to rescind Brexit. European socialism is crashing so, the answer is to raise taxes.

The person who produces a good or service wants to protect and store the value of his labor. The person who produces nothing of value must steal from the producer. Paper money is the vehicle for this theft. Socialism is an organizational tool to do this most effectively.
The socialists in Venezuela put their cronies in charge of the oil industry,,, ejecting the experts. Unfortunately for the Venezuelans, the price of oil fell badly. The socialists failed to pay the oil workers and, they hyper-inflated the money supply. The results were predictable.

"the IMF again recommended that countries raise taxes and lower public spending to decrease annual borrowing and get the burden of debt on a firmly downward path now that there is no need for fiscal stimulus."
"In fact, reading the IMF report between the lines, it is nothing more than advance scapegoating for the inevitable global debt crisis that is coming, and which not even the IMF is hiding any more. What is most comical - if completely expected - is that the IMF is now blaming it all on Trump: not on generations of economists who steered the world to the point where there is more than $3 of debt for every $1 of GDP, and not on central bankers who flooded the world with debt so that the richest 0.01% can be richer than their wildest dream. Nope: it's all Trump's fault."
"The IMF said that the interest burden has doubled in the past ten years to close to 20% of taxes,"

The IMF makes no mention of the fact that; the giga-tons of liquidity pumped out by the private banks is what got us to this point. The State did it's share of borrowing megatons of debt to buy votes and make wars.
The private sector was offered credit that it did not merit. They act surprised when the defaults hit.
The Global Economy Is Slowing, Credit Card Defaults Hit 6 Year High…. Saxo: The Word Economies Are Synchronically… Falling! – Investment Watch Blog

The worker wants to store the value of his labor. The parasite uses debt-money to steal it. This only works if the producer pays back the loan. The money-renting business got too crowded and, many debt creators loaned to people who could not repay. The mother of all defaults will be when the State can't repay.

Armstrong, "Trump is misguided on Trade, as every other politician has been since World War II. That has awakened the sleeping giant of China, whose debt to GDP exceeded 250% going into the end of 2017 compared to 103.7% for the USA going into the end of 2017."
Ben Carson’s claim that the U.S. owes $211 trillion beyond the reported federal debt
The more complicated figure he cites in his ad is the $213 trillion “fiscal gap” Carson claims is in addition to the $18 trillion debt. This figure comes from a Boston University economics professor, Laurence Kotlikoff, who put the number at $210 trillion, $3 trillion less than Carson’s figure.

"Take for example the estimate of the fiscal gap, which increased by one-third from 2015 to 2016.

The fiscal gap is a key snapshot of the government's financial health that estimates the tax increases and spending cuts required to maintain the current ratio of national debt to GDP. That's a more meaningful number than the national debt alone because it also takes into account money coming into the government's coffers, and the implications on future public policy."
"If entitlement obligations were counted, the true national debt figure would actually be around $100 trillion, as opposed to the government's current $20 trillion figure. The more holistic $100 trillion number breaks down to a $308,000 burden for every American taxpayer. These bills are real, and they'll come due one day."
So, cut out all entitlements and, we'll be good.

Here is a graph of the yield curve. Every time that it collapses, we get a recession.
You can get a feel for where we are now, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...inues-collapse

The crash is blamed on the failure of capitalism or the failure of democracy.
The pundits wouldn't dream of blaming it on low wages and automation.

4/19 China air force again circles Taiwan in ‘sacred mission’ – Reuters 3 guesses what they have in mind.
4/19 Apple jitters mount on concerns of waning smartphone demand – Bloomberg
No kidding. maybe that is because we are getting ripped off.
4/19 10-year Treasury yield tops 2.9% on better-than-expected economic data – CNBC
4/19 Store closures set to accelerate this year, warns Bloomberg – Financial Sense

More on global growth. Use ... control +... to make the tiny text larger.

"improving confidence has pushed leverage back to record levels, investors carry the highest levels of risk assets since the turn of the century, and yield spreads remain near record lows. It certainly seems as “things are as good as they can get.”
"The U.S. economy remains in robust shape, with growth in GDP, industrial production, and investment holding up well. In tandem with strong consumer confidence and employment growth"
"For investors, when things are “as good as they can get,” that is the point where something has historically gone wrong. It is always an unexpected, unanticipated event that causes a revulsion of risk assets across markets."

"In 1960, Robert Triffin brilliantly argued that ever-accumulating trade deficits, the flaw of hosting the reserve currency and the result of Bretton Woods, may help economic growth in the short run but would kill it in the long run."
"We believe the financial crisis of 2008 was likely an important warning that years of accumulating deficits and debts associated with maintaining the world’s reserve currency may finally be reaching their tipping point. Despite the last nine years of outsized fiscal spending and unprecedented monetary stimulus, economic growth is well below the pace of recoveries of years past. In fact, as shown below, starting in 2009 the cumulative amount of new federal debt surpassed the cumulative amount of GDP growth going back to 1967. Said differently, if it were not for a significant and consistent federal deficit, GDP would have been negative every year since the 2008 financial crisis. "

VERY good article explaining the relationship between the reserve currency, Bretton Woods, gold, and the dollar.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:58 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Late credit cycle,,, liar loans,,, inflation

Where to start,,, What to cover?
For starters, look at this graph, http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...dFundsRate.png
Just in case that you believe that we are in some kind of linear zone of stability, rather than in a cycle. We're coming to the end of a credit cycle.
Everybody is starting to face this fact.
"warned that the credit cycle is on its last legs, noting that "in our view, a key driver is simply that global liquidity conditions are tightening, and markets are coming to the realisation that the process will be rocky."
"The bank also made a rare timing forecast of when it expects it to crack:

"Morgan Stanley concluded that "evidence is mounting that spreads have hit cycle tights – in other words, that bigger fundamental challenges in credit are 6-12 months away, not 2-3 years down the road."
" Late-cycle returns: asset returns YTD (annualized): commodities 23%, equities 5%, bonds 4%, cash 1%, US dollar -9%...“late-cycle” price action...last time asset performance ranked this way was 2007."

"lessons of the 2008 financial crisis“:
“The shareholders got bailed out. The boards of directors got bailed out. Management got bailed out. So from their perspective, there was no crisis.” “No other industry is levered likely the banking industry,” Kashkari said. "
"While I agree with Kashkari that Wall Street is forgetting the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis (and is participating in the development of another dangerous economic bubble), he seems to be absolving the Federal Reserve of its massive responsibility for inflating the mid-2000s U.S. housing and credit bubble as well as the current “Everything Bubble”
It wasn't the FED that made $trillions in liar loans. The Graham-Leachy bill allowed the banks to take all your money and loan it out. No qualified borrowers?? No problem, give them the money anyway.

"This was a reference to a time-honored banker adage, now mostly forgotten after nearly nine years of easy money: Bad deals are made in good times." "Chapter 11 bankruptcies spiked 63% in March from a year ago "

Armstrong on inflation.
"The assumption that an increase in the money supply is the root of all inflation is simply a theory that does not stack up to history. "
"Therefore, all the research that I have conducted demonstrates that inflation is by no means tied to the increase in the money supply, which is the entire reason nations borrow today. They think borrowing rather than printing is less inflationary. That is not true if the debt can be used as money."
He is on shaky ground here because he compares debt-money to gold -silver money.
"At times, the national debt of just about every major nation today has reached 70% of which is attributed to accumulative interest expenditures. As interest rates rise, the national debts will explode and because of this bogus theory of inflation tied to an increase in money supply, they will then raise taxes to try to reduce deficits. This will further create a Great Depression as deflation surges."
"The ECB has engaged in quantitative easing for nearly 10 years without producing corresponding inflation"
The monetary inflation is stuck in the upper loop. Specifically, in the bond market.

"Typically, inflation unfolds when there is CONFIDENCE in the future. Hyperinflation takes place when CONFIDENCE in government collapses. We are dead center. There is no real CONFIDENCE in the future so people are spending less and saving more"
This is sloppy thinking. There are 2 types of (price) inflation.
There are two main types of inflation: demand pull and cost push. Fueled by income and strong consumer demand, demand-pull inflation occurs when the economy demands more goods and services than are available. Cost-push inflation happens when the demand for goods increases because production costs rise to the point where fewer goods can be produced.
People are NOT saving more. They have maxed out their credit cards.

"What government refuses to look at is the bottom line. The more they raise taxes, the less disposable income the individual has in every class. "
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Old 04-21-2018, 04:37 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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FED, god of the bankers,,,Shrinking GDP

Keep in mind that the FED is an instrument of the bankers. It will always intercede for the best interests of the bankers.
"larmed commentators warn that global debt levels have reached $233 trillion, more than three times global GDP, and that much of that debt is at variable rates pegged either to the Fed’s interbank lending rate or to LIBOR. Raising rates further could push governments, businesses and homeowners over the edge. In its Global Financial Stability report in April 2017, the International Monetary Fund warned that projected interest rises could throw 22 percent of U.S. corporations into default."

"Fed has announced it will be dumping its government bonds acquired through quantitative easing at the rate of $600 billion annually. It will sell $2.7 trillion in federal securities at the rate of $50 billion monthly beginning in October. Along with a government budget deficit of $1.2 trillion, that’s nearly $2 trillion in new government debt that will need financing annually.

If the Fed follows through with its plans, projections are that by 2027, U.S. taxpayers will owe $1 trillion annually just in interest on the federal debt."
"Where will this money come from? Even crippling taxes, wholesale privatization of public assets and elimination of social services will not cover the bill."
"the monetarist dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”: Inflation is always caused by “too much money chasing too few goods.”
There are no "goods" in the bond market.
"the Fed has been using this excuse since 2012, citing one “transitory factor” after another, from temporary movements in oil prices to declining import prices and dollar strength, to falling energy prices, to changes in wireless plans and prescription drugs. The excuse is wearing thin."
" Over the last two years, leading up to and continuing through the Fed’s tightening cycle, nominal GDP growth averaged just over 3 percent, "

Side note https://s3.amazonaws.com/agorafinanc...2_04192018.png
FED GOV spends 24% of the gdp with borrowed money. What do you suppose will happen if they stop?
"“Surging LIBOR, Once a Red Flag, Is Now a Cash Machine for Banks.” He wrote:

The largest U.S. lenders could each make at least $1 billion in additional pretax profit in 2018 from a jump in the London interbank offered rate for dollars,"
" They are funding much of their operations through deposits, and the average rate paid by the largest U.S. banks on their deposits climbed only about 0.1 percent last year, despite a 0.75 percent rise in the Fed funds rate."
" JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank, said in its 2017 annual report that $122 billion of wholesale loans were at variable rates. Assuming those were all indexed to Libor, the 1.19 percentage-point increase in the rate in the past year would mean $1.45 billion in additional income.

Raising the Fed funds rate can be the same sort of cash cow for U.S. banks. According to a December 2016 Wall Street Journal article titled “Banks’ Interest-Rate Dreams Coming True”:
Yep, pay nothing on deposits regardless how high the FED interest rate goes.
"major banks have also been publishing regular updates on how well they would do if interest rates suddenly surged upward. … Bank of America … says a 1-percentage-point rise in short-term rates would add $3.29 billion. "
"All 12 Federal Reserve Banks are corporations, the stock of which is 100 percent owned by the banks in their districts; and New York is the district of Wall Street"
So, ARMs are going to go crazy.

"actual GDP has declined an average 7.45% each year since 2007?
And if that artificial stimulus is removed?:"
The economy requires constant injections of debt to sustain the appearance of growth.

But if that debt only burdens the economy without producing any authentic bang…
Is it not better to stop now, before the tiger grows larger — and hungrier?
Maybe the time has finally come to let the tiger go.
Our only advice is this:
Be prepared to run… and pray…
So, what happens if the whole country runs out of money?

Central Bank bubbles, https://www.kiplinger.com/article/in...-it-burst.html
Good article on declining liquidity, https://dailyreckoning.com/dont-wait-long-leave-party/

During the good times, the State promised good public pensions. People figured that they no longer needed to save for retirement. After all, the GOV was taking their money and investing it for their future retirement. Well, the good times ended when America lost it's post-war lock on manufacturing. The pensions are still there but, the funds are gone. The income from new workers is too small. The blob State has some real gold-plated pensions and there just isn't enough money to pay for them.

Cut pensions and, you get a riot, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN1HR02A
"employees will now have to contribute 7 percent of their salary to social security, up from a current 6.25 percent.
Employers will have to contribute 22.5 percent of salaries from a current 19 percent.
Pensioners will also have 5 percent of their pension taken out to be used for medical expenses. "
Every extra dollar taken in taxes reduces the productive economy.
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Old 04-21-2018, 10:37 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Survival and the debt of nations

Man has a "million" years of experience trying to survive. We almost didn't make it.
All other offshoots died out, most recently, Neanderthal.
Survival is in our blood so, so is competition. We compete to pass on our genetic lineage. We focus on the family, tribe and clan. A nation is an artificial construct / agglomeration.
"The concept of the nation state came about with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, something that everybody only vaguely remembers from a college history class."
"Why was it so important? It redirected the concept of “loyalty” away from an individual—a prince or a king—to the State itself. A geographical area now wasn’t so much the possession of a ruler, as a possession of a State. This really got the concept of nationalism going; nationalism is just tribalism writ large.

That’s how the concept was born. But the idea of a nation state is coming to an end. Now almost anybody can go almost anywhere thanks to jet travel; you’re no longer married to one place, like a medieval serf. "
"So, first, people realized that it’s completely ridiculous and dysfunctional to be loyal to some thug who, through an accident of birth or through military competence, set himself up as a prince. Now they’re discovering that it’s equally stupid to be loyal to a government that’s running a country."
"The nation state is now an anachronism, and going out of business. It’s dysfunctional, destructive, and serves less and less of a useful purpose. All it does is tax, regulate, persecute, and conduct wars. People got a bit of a scare a couple weeks ago when it looked like the US might start a nuclear war with the North Koreans, or the Russians. Perhaps they’ll threaten China next. That’s all State-on-State action."
"But a lot of people conflate the increase in standards of living with the growth of governments. Governments have grown not because they created new wealth, but because they’ve confiscated wealth and used it against their subjects.

But now most of them are bankrupt—even though they’ve taken taxes from trivial levels to monstrous levels. Even with the huge additional amounts they’ve stolen by inflating their currencies, they’re still bankrupt. I suspect we’re reaching the end game"
"Central banks and commercial banks are essentially Ponzi schemes, and engines of inflation. It’s a major reason the rich are getting richer—which is OK, except that today it’s at the expense of the middle class.

This is all going to blow up. And the next crisis will be one for the record books. It will start as a monetary crisis, but will turn into an economic, political, social, and military crisis. You can be sure the US Government will be involved in everything, dragging its subjects with it, like it or not."
"Well, the declining U.S. Empire will likely confront the rising Chinese Empire. The US still has a very powerful military. The chances are it will use it while it’s still on top. Or a small war could break out anywhere in the world, and escalate. Things could get out of control very quickly. Remember, Black Swans aren’t things you don’t expect. They’re things that you don’t know even exist."

Socialism is the firewall between the non-producers AND, Darwinian pressures. All gov is socialist because it does redistribution.
Armstrong, "What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. "
" It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades."
"Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable."

"As interest rates rise, we are on schedule for a real explosion in debt. The higher the debt to GDP rises, the greater the risk that the debt will force higher taxes resulting in lower economic growth. "

Not having the reserve currency credit card, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics collapsed financially. The USSA motored on a bit longer. FED GOV writes 80 million checks a month. The debt is rising as much as $1.7 billion a day. The banks want to drive up interest rates to get more spread on deposits. Rising interest rates will bankrupt more than 50% of businesses,,, depending on how high they go. The banks have to be painfully shorted-sighted to push up rates.
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Old 04-21-2018, 11:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Locking down the banking system

Turkey is just one of many States that wants it's gold back on home ground.

"Once physical cash is gone, your liberty is gone because government can easily monitor and freeze all digital payments. The only recourse for the Chinese people once their cash is gone will be physical gold and silver.
This brings me to what I’ve warned about for years…
It’s what I call “ice-nine.” This refers to government’s ability to lock down the financial system in the next global crisis. And it won’t be just China."
"Money printing won’t be an option, because central banks have printed too much already. Any more money printing would trigger a complete loss of confidence in fiat money and a mad scramble for hard assets."
Very short-sighted. Creating pixilated debt money (credit) is NOT the same as printing bills.

"Instead of money printing, central banks and governments plan to lock down the system and not let investors get their money out.
This will begin with money market funds and then spread quickly to bank accounts, ATMs and stock exchanges until the entire system is frozen.
Then an international monetary conference will be convened to create a new global monetary standard, probably based on special drawing rights (SDRs), which will be printed by the trillions and handed out to governments to gradually reliquify the system."
He just can't get the stupid SDR out of his head. NOBODY wants anything to do with the STUPID SDR from the IMF.

"A few years ago, the SEC changed the rules so that U.S. money market funds can suspend redemptions. Recently, China announced that it would follow suit and allow its money market funds to also suspend redemptions.

Those laws say the bank owns your deposited money, not you. Wait...what ... Your deposit is actually an unsecured loan to the bank with all the problems of counterparty risk! Instead"
You get the idea. when the black swan goes SPLAT, the banks won't even open. The money-markets will go dark. YOU will hit the road.
If you have cash at home, you will have 2-3 days to get to a rural area.

Here are a few vids, https://dollarcollapse.com/videos/top-ten-videos/
Just so you don't worry, "More than 47,000 millionaires collected Social Security benefits in 2010, a year when 7.2% of those collecting Social Security reported income above $100,000."

Armstrong, " He suggested that to prevent a collapse, the government would mandate that retirement accounts hold a certain percentage in government bonds. It will be a way to tax or force a purchase of debt"
"The huge crisis is in Europe. Many nations already mandate the majority of pensions must invest in government bonds. Even the US Social Security system is 100% in government bonds. The problem is that interest rates are at historic lows. Pensions need 7% to 8% on to remain solvent. Forcing 100% of all pensions into government bonds will not prevent the crisis coming. The pensions will still collapse."
" Despite the fact that the currencies of China and Russia during the communist period were not free markets, communism still collapsed. You cannot prevent the economy from ignoring the economics of reality. Regulation will always fail."
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The price of war,,,, and everything else

Historically, all prices were set in the marketplace. You had to actually have something of value to trade for what you wanted. This includes the price of credit. Here is a graph of historic interest rates for the last 5,000 years. No can do. The url is about 500 lines.
Rates have come way down over the centuries. When money had intrinsic value, people loaned it very carefully. Bankers who loan thin-air money don't have any skin in the game and, don't fear losses. Distorting the price of money distorts all other prices. There is a constant need for currency inflation because there is a constant need for free money to support the non-producing class. The creation of a Central Bank was a way to institutionalize sure and steady currency inflation. They were originally created to provide the State with war financing.

The average person just wants to survive and, enjoy life. The average State has the mentality of a parasite and, wants to control everything in sight. It wants to steal from everyone in sight. The priorities of the State are far removed from the priorities of the average person. Look at the Amish community to get an idea of what the basic requirements are for the average human. Look at Monaco to get an idea of what the basic requirements are for the very rich.
These 2 groups buy the necessities & luxuries of life. They have no interest in bombs, rockets and missiles.
The demands of the state are completely at odds with the necessities of society. Yet, the State promotes the idea that the State and society are completely inter-dependent.

The State uses the CB to distort the price of money and therefore, EVERYTHING else. ALL of this is done in an effort to control it's serfs and wage war. Prices are set in the marketplace. There is little to NO demand for war. It is only a small segment of the controllers who are buyers for war. We are held in thrall to pay for something for which we have no need, nor desire.
A good article on prices, https://www.goldmoney.com/research/g...efcode=dollarc
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Old 04-22-2018, 06:37 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,277
ZIRP accelerates the pension crisis

"The net interest payments will exceed the spending on defense in 2023 and it will exceed all non-defense spending by 2025. "
"Economically, you need free markets to further society. It is human ingenuity that creates progress allowing individuals to have ideas and act on them "
"Socialism is collapsing because the system was never designed properly and politicians will always pursue their own self-interest. As pensions collapse so will socialism."

4/22 Visualizing the pension time bomb: $400 trillion by 2050 – Zero Hedge
Demographics is destiny. Too many people are retiring for the system to survive.
4/22 ‘Silver tsunami’ hits as pension costs devour CA school budgets – SFChronicle
Cyber crime seems to pay well, https://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...-a8313801.html
The "impossible trinity" precludes have an international currency AND capital controls. The Petro-Yuan is therefore deeply flawed, https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...06VLnT90iTfYA/

North Korea has quieted down and now, Tehran is ready to rock.

Looting the Pension Funds: How Wall Street Robs Public Workers ...
Millions face PENSION CRISIS: Britons are warned YOU are NOT saving enough to live
Huge pension fund deficits are a global crisis in waiting

Last edited by Danny B; 04-23-2018 at 11:30 PM. Reason: bum url
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Old 04-24-2018, 12:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,277
Blocking price discovery for as long as possible

In the dot-com bubble, people threw money at anything and everything. When confidence was lost, price discovery set in. In the 2007 crash houses became too bubbly. The cost of a house must be relative to the wages in the same area. When everything threatened to bottom out, the State, in the form of Freddie and Fannie, bought up (guaranteed) everything to create price support until private investors could be enticed to buy the orphaned houses. The liar -loans blew up. Naturally, the banks couldn't be expected to take the hit.
"The bad loans in the states were really dumped into Freddie Mac, is a public government-sponsored enterprise created in 1970 to expand the secondary market for mortgages. The main difference between Fannie and Freddie boils down to who they buy mortgages from. Fannie Mae primarily purchases mortgage loans from commercial banks, while Freddie Mac primarily buys mortgages from smaller banks that are often called “thrift” banks.
The bad real estate loans were stuffed into Fannie and Freddie so the bad debt was not in the banks."

The banks "earn" the fees and, shuffle off the loan to either the State or, shmuck investors. It never occurred to the banks that the State might go broke from all that bad paper. ALL States eventually go broke.

The high-wage structure left the country but, the bankers didn't want the price structure to go away. They could not allow the markets to do honest price discovery. History shows that true price discovery eventually returns.

"The Draghis of the world will continue to believe they are in control until they are not. At first, some people will start taking out their money while it’s still there, and then after that the rest will trample over each other in a bloody stampede on the way to the exits trying to save what’s left. After the first $100 trillion is gone, we’ll be able to survey the terrain, but by then we won’t, because we’ll be too busy trying to save ourselves.

And I know you’ve heard this before, and I know central banks bought us 10 years of respite. But it was all fake. They had to pile on insane amounts of debt on your heads, kill off your pension systems and make markets a meaningless term, to achieve that respite. "
"The resulting malinvestment is piling up like underbrush in a forest where fires have been suppressed for too long. And when a fire does break out it will be one for the history books. "
4/23 10-year Treasury yield nears 3%, a level that could shock the markets – CNBC Give it a few more tenths of a point,,, maybe 3.4

Here is an article talking about how Germany has brought ALL of it's gold back to home soil. Look at the picture and tell me if the bars all look clearly to be copper.
4/23 Venezuela will be out of gold in one year – Zero Hedge YES, but, they have 297 billion barrels of oil.
4/23 Japan needs ‘strong accommodative’ monetary policy ‘for some time’ – CNBC https://www.ancient-symbols.com/imag...y/infinity.jpg

"According to a Citibank report from 2016, the 20 largest OECD countries alone have a US$78 trillion shortfall in funding pay-as-you-go and defined benefit public pensions’ obligations. This shortfall is far from trivial. It is equivalent to about 1.8 times the value of these countries’ collective national debt. "
You Canadians get honorable mention for increasingly using your house for an ATM, https://betterdwelling.com/congrats-...their-homes/#_ Canadian household debt hits $1.8 trillion as global watchdog warns ..
Federal “Market Debt” First Exceeded $1 Trillion Six Years Ago Under ... Ottawa

"The bad real estate loans were stuffed into Fannie and Freddie so the bad debt was not in the banks. In Europe, the bad loans are still on the books of the banks. Hence, the European banking crisis was not been addressed and this is the primary difference between American v Europe."

"This is the CIVIL UNREST that will rise up around the West as socialism continues to collapse. The taxes must rise and the benefits must decline and even that will not keep the social systems in place for more than two years. We will have to face a complete revision of the monetary system. How that is approached will determine if we have violent confrontations with government and the rich are dragged from their homes and hanged as has so often taken place in the past."

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up ... them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered"
For The First Time Ever, Millennials With Student Debt Have Negative Net Wealth
For the first time, young adults age 25 to 34 with college degrees and student loans have a median net wealth of negative $1,900, said the advocacy group.

The report states that this lost generation had a positive net wealth of $9,000 in 2013,

The debt MUST grow for the financial sector to survive. As households cut back, the State jumped in, http://thesoundingline.com/wp-conten...e-1024x678.jpg
The World Bank wants more bucks to pass around. U.S. and Russia said NO.
Finland is going to give up on basic Income. https://www.sciencealert.com/finland...ing-april-2018
An interesting article by PCR, on race and, erasing history.
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