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Old 03-02-2018, 10:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Everything out of control

Nothing much going on at the moment. As everybody already knows, FED printing has carried the whole economy. Does the PPT and ESF have input and control of the economy? Dunno. Nobody is talking.
Ron Paul says that the FED is at a crossroads. OK, who is really running the FED?
Larry Summers is a doomer, https://sputniknews.com/us/201803011...-us-recession/

Just how much control do "they' have? Here is a chart of interest rates.
Here is a chart of the labor participation rate, https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...BkpQkUoU--kUsu
From this site, https://pronkpops.wordpress.com/tag/fairtax-less/
The FED is desperate to lower rates so that, they can lower them to stimulate the economy. The magic doesn't work any more because;
"Historically speaking, it takes 300 or 400 basis points of rate cuts to lift the economy out of recession. That means interest rates would have to be between 3% and 4% to effectively address it. Right now rates are 1.5%.
How do you cut rates 3.5% when they’re only at 1.5%?"
"Debt has been growing three to six times faster than income for more than an entire generation. This makes the old 1.5-to-1 ratio of debt to income seem quaint. It is now 3.5-to-1 nationwide."

The FED wants to raise rates so that it can fight a possible recession. BUT, raising the rates will cause the recession that they hope to fight. We have peaked out on population and consumption.
Yikes, the URL for the image was a couple of 1000 lines.
So, the population and wages and consumption are all falling. The FED can raise rates but, the little bit that they just did cause an 11% crash.
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:17 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The State & society,,, in flux

As the world shrinks due to rapid communication and rapid transportation, the usual groups try to extend the reach of their power.
The corporatocracy plans to eliminate the State and hold all power.
The technocrats are going to order your life.
China, on the other hand is going to track and manipulate EVERY single detail of Chinese life.
Central Planning doesn't have a good track record of success. Socialism has generally been a bust. It kills all motivation.
Japan has quasi- public banking. China has mostly public banking. In the West, the banks run the State. The fall in the birth rate and the rise in automation are making it an unworkable system.
Everybody is screaming to audit the FED. Up until recently, the FED didn't create much money.
" But the main factor that controls the money supply has been the commercial banking system. The creation of loans creates electronic entries on accounts. If I have $100 in my account and the bank lends you $100, we then both have $100 in our accounts so the money supply is doubled WITHOUT the central bank printing anything."
That's not to say that the FED didn't enable the private banking system to blow bubbles. The SEC is equally guilty of allowing insane leverage.

The CB protects the upper loop from default. In the 2008 crash, it was consumer RE that got defaulted on. At the moment, 10% of u.S. companies can not service debt-interest with their profits. The FED is trying / having-to move down the food chain in preventing defaults. That is why there is talk of a basic monthly income. Debt service snuffs out income. Default follows.
China can yank the rug out any time they want. They hold a lot of U.S. debt notes but, given enough incentive, they might act rash. PressTV-China media warn of ‘hell’ if Trump signs Taiwan bill
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The new FED head slams on the brakes

OK, it's reading time. I can only compress things to a point. In a system this complex, there are just too many real & possible combinations and reactions. I haven't posted much because the BS was running knee deep. The monsters are slowly rising up out of the sea of BS and taking form. I'll start with Armstrong because he has the best historical reference.
"It is ALWAYS the CONFIDENCE in government that is the primary component of hyperinflation. There is a wealth of examples that demonstrate it is the collapse in CONFIDENCE that takes place and then the hyperinflation unfolds as a RESULT of that. It is NEVER as the goldbugs pitch to sell people gold that an increase in money supply is the cause of hyperinflation. It is ALWAYS, and without exception, the collapse in public confidence that precedes the hyperinflation."

OK, now, keep this firmly in mind. Next I'll go to Kunstler. You better do a couple of bong-loads before you read this.
Kunstler seems to think that the Deep State will be able to oust Trump. He doesn't see that as being too far off.
"And the Republicans will be blamed twice over: once, for not coming to Trump’s defense, and again for getting behind him in the first place. Enjoy the last few weeks of relative normality."
End Times at the OD Corral - Kunstler

OK, back to Armstrong and confidence. "
. It is ALWAYS the CONFIDENCE in government that is the primary component of hyperinflation.

I have also shown that the hyperinflation that took place in the Roman Empire during the 3rd century followed the capture of Emperor Valerian I in 260AD by the Persians."
Could the ouster of Trump set off a crisis in confidence,,, or even worse?
"Friday morning trading was of the ominous ilk. Stocks, Treasuries, commodities and dollar/yen were all sinking in tandem. There are cracks - cracks in the U.S. and cracks spread globally. Speculative blow-offs and “Terminal Phase Excess” are fundamental to Bubble analysis. It’s important to appreciate these culminations of excess are manifestations of Monetary Disorder. It is one of the great wonders of economic history – how everyone turns so blindly optimistic right before the bottom falls out.

Powell has SLAMMED on the brakes. At first, everybody was complacent. When they could see that the marching orders had been changed, they became nervous. Panic will come soon enough.
Make your choice: change by pain or insight – Peak Prosperity
The Fed is about to pop the bubble in stocks – Casey Research
Fed’s QE unwind marches forward relentlessly – Wolf Street

3/04 Enjoy the final ride, because the expansion is nearing an end – Financial Sense
3/04 Why even with stock plunge, you need to worry about bonds – Forbes

Stockman has a LOT to say about the fake recovery and the bombshell of quantitative tightening.
Contra Corner » The Two Janet’s And The Perfect Storm Ahead
3/04 Europe threatens US bikes, bourbon and bluejeans – Guardian The trade war will be most likely blocked by the courts,, like the muslim ban. It seems like Trump is using the spectre of a trade war to advance some other agenda. After all, Canada is our biggest steel supplier. He won't tip over their apple cart. Like obummer care and the border wall, this will get bounced all over the place. Trump has to use whatever weapons he can hold of.
"But trade is the one policy arena where the Donald can go completely rogue owing to the insidious section 232 of the 1962 trade act. The latter literally gives the President open-ended powers to impose tariffs and other trade protections in behalf of any industry deemed essential to "national defense" "Trump means to become a one-man wrecking crew; and that there is no one around the White House who can take away his primary weapon in the global trade war "
Stockman hates Trump so much that he is blinded as to how he operates. He put an Ace in his hand and, he's going to work it hard.

3/04 Trump’s tariffs prompt global threats of retaliation – NY Times
3/04 Trump’s chaos theory for Oval Office taking its toll – NY Times

I think that he kinda likes chaos.
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Old 03-04-2018, 06:27 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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ZIRP poison and the end of QE

The current belief is that Powell will raise interest rates and execute quantitative tightening to put the brakes on. The current belief is that Powell will relent at some point. It is believed that he will let / force interest rates to continue to raise, at the same time that he will do more quantitative easing. The FED fancies itself that it has a good understanding of "herd mentality". The "Greenspan put" was the start of the injection of confidence into the markets. BUT, it was an injection of confidence into the private markets. The FED invented the BLICKS and other assorted stratagems to show that there were indeed buyers for U.S. sovereign debt.

The CBs have pumped in mega-tons of liquidity in the hopes that every niche would be flooded with hot money. There would be no where to go if an investor tried to flee the markets. Gold has been manipulated down. 10% of crypto-coins have been stolen.
The East is betting on a huge rise in the price of gold. Armstrong says no,,, though he does qualify this be talking about a future "slingshot move"
FOFOA is a VERY well informed gold-bug who says, YES. Sovereign debt is considered a great store of value because the State has taxing authority. Sovereign debt always crashes but, the State talks up a good story,,, between crashes.

ZIRP was a huge mistake in that it wiped out all the funds and savers. Interest rates are going up but, I REALLY doubt that you will see a higher interest rate on your savings account. ZIRP gave a spread on interest rates so that the banks could have some income. It also helped the State to hold down the cost of debt service on public debt. The blowback cost was that all the pension funds went broke.
Keep in mind that the Deep State is personified and embodied as the great mass of public sector "workers" who voted in-mass for whichever candidate promised the most money.
Saudi Arabia is the perfect example of this system carried to ridiculous extremes. 75% of State workers don't even show up.
Ca. isn't far behind, "The insolvency at CalPERS has exceeded $100,000 owed by every private citizen in California to government employees."
THAT is the greater mass of the Deep State.

Governor Moonbeam took a few shots at Trump and FED GOV. What an idiot. Trump fired back with a new measure that will gut the Ca. Treasury.
So, CALpers will be demanding $billions more at the same time that Ca. tax receipts are crashing.

Armstrong, "We have run our models on this movement of blaming humans for climate change. Unfortunately, this crazy analysis will not reach its peak until 2032. Governments will continue to embrace it as an excuse to raise taxes. So it looks like as government needs money, they do not care about the environment. They will use this climate change as the excuse to impose new types of taxes as if lining their pockets with other people’s money will save the planet – it is only to save their power."

A good article on growth, doubling and resources, https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...e-pain-insight
Here is a fascinating chart, https://amp.businessinsider.com/imag...01-750-563.jpg
"The change in debt subtracted from the change in the economy each year. This chart shows that, on balance, we have had to borrow more and more each year to produce the same level of economic growth: "
Keep in mind that GDP INCLUDES advertising and finance. The chart shows the big 1987 crash and then, a small turnaround. From that point forward, it was steadily downward. As America lost it's lock on manufacturing, our true national income fell.
You can easily see the big spurt of QE. As soon as QE ended? we turned right back down. This drop was recently halted but, still negative.

"here's what our economic growth looks like if you subtract the debt we've borrowed along the way. "
OK, so next time you hear that the economy is growing, you can get a better perspective.
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Old 03-06-2018, 03:51 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Hussman on stocks,,,medical debt,,,hunt for taxes

I try to cut out the BS and not waste your time. But, today takes more reading. NOBODY states things clearer than John Hussman. He said the FEB. 2 was a turning point. I won't excerpt his article. This needs no explanation from me.
Here is what Mike Shedlock had to say about the article from Hussman.
"John Hussman has another excellent article out this week, but it will be ignored. Mathematically, it must be ignored.I don't disagree with a word of that. And his images are excellent. But is the message lost in the pictures?"
"Someone has to hold every stock and every bond, at the top and all the way down."
So much for stocks. What about bonds?
3/05 “Bond markets worldwide are living in their own hall of mirrors” – Zero Hedge
"fact #1: 43 million Americans have overdue medical debt on their credit reports

fact #2: 52 percent of all debt on credit reports is from medical expenses

fact #3: 15 million consumers have only medical debt on their credit report"

Europe has a new law. If you do anything bad to someone,,, they fine the snot out of you. They don't say what anything "bad" is.
Armstrong is advising you to have a bit of extra food as global warming is getting worse.
87% poverty in Venezuela, https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/0...nevitable.html

3/04 Lenders turning low-level courts into Dickensian ‘debt collection mills’ – Intercept
3/05 15,000 new Manchester homes and not a single one ‘affordable’ – Guardian
3/05 Bitcoin heist: 600 powerful computers stolen in Iceland – 13ABC

China is loudly rattling sabers, 'Descent Into Hell': China Warns of Potential War With US Over Taiwan
The banks are susceptible to contagion and, have stopped lending to each other, https://www.moneyandbanking.com/comm...erbank-lending
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Old 03-06-2018, 03:54 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Interest rates,,, legitimacy of the State

Canada gets honorable mention, ". For every $1.00 of income, consumers owe $1.68. This is the highest income to debt ratio in the world. For low-income Canadian households, the $1.00 disposable income to $3.33 debt ratio is even worst."
Oh Canada! The Looming Economic Meltdown - Gold Telegraph
Pretty bad,,, Eh?
The London interbank overnight rate Suffered a run on the banks back on 2007--08. Nobody knew who was solvent and, who was not in the banking industry. The banks have now gotten away from interbank loans. Repost, https://www.moneyandbanking.com/comm...erbank-lending
Since the LIBOR loans have gone away, the interest rate has dropped to nothing. This has killed interest income on anything referenced to the LIBOR rate. "They" have gotten together and come up with a different reference to set the interest rates that were previously referenced to LIBOR.

"The ARRC in June voted to adopt an interest rate benchmark from the U.S. Treasuries-backed repurchase agreement market (repo) as an alternative to the use of Libor in exchange and privately traded derivatives. "
"The Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) said that around $200 trillion in U.S. dollar-based derivatives and loans are based on Libor, with derivatives accounting for around 95 percent of the exposures. "
So, what happens to $ 190 trillion in derivatives when the REPO market blows?

Notes on China, "A single cash advance of $100 million can be passed from corporation to corporation in exchange for a new promissory note, used to extinguish an old unpayable promissory note. Repeated enough times, the $100 million can be used as window dressing to prop up $1 billion or even $2 billion of bad debts."
"China has $1 trillion or more in bad debts waiting to explode. These bad debts permeate the economy."
Side note, Spain, Italy, Greece & Portugal owe massive debt of €1 trillion to ECB ...

"Both alternatives are unacceptable to the Communists because they lack the political legitimacy to endure either unemployment or inflation. Either policy would cause social unrest and unleash revolutionary potential."
EXACTLY the same as Brussels.
The Chinese system can survive far better than the system in the EU.

3/06 Jerome Powell’s big decision on interest rates is when to stop – AFR He wants to slowly drag away the punch bowl from the party. NOT going to work. The leverage and margin-debt is far too high to take any kind of reduction.
3/06 10 charts reveal an auto bubble on the brink – Zero Hedge
3/06 Gauge of long-term euro zone inflation falls to three-month low – Reuters Could it be that debt service is crowding out everything else?
3/05 Senator Graham proposes war with North Korea “would be worth it” – Mish Send him to the front line to lead the charge.
3/06 If America’s democracy fails, can the others survive? – Atlantic No democracy has ever survived.

Unfortunately for the people in Gaza, they have carbon energy and are being bombed to oblivion for it.
"In July 2014, investigative journalist Nafeez Ahmed’s claimed Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza at the time was rooted in a desire to control Palestinian gas (his blog was axed from the Guardian not long after). In 2000, there was a discovery of 1.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas off the Gaza coast, valued at $4 billion."
The same is happening with Lebanon, "Secondly, we predict with certainty that there are approximately 865 million barrels of oil and 96 trillion cubic feet of gas in that area, this is something that Israel will fight tooth and nail for.”
Gaza can't fight back. Lebanon and Hezbollah are WELL armed and, itching for a fight.
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trying to maintain employment without spiking price inflation

Really, nothing new. It's funny how various writers will dance around an issue without mentioning the core problem. Here is an article about zombie companies that never mentions employment.
"the BIS which one year ago warned that no less than 20% of US corporations are "challenged" and at risk of default once rates start rising. Which simply means that thousands of defaults are imminent once rates truly spike "
These companies don't earn enough money to make interest payments.
"Last July, 9% of Stoxx 600 companies were zombies." "To be sure, there is an easy way to find buyers for the €1.1 trillion in debt: just push the yields much higher. Alas, here lies the rub, because the upcoming jump in interest expense is precisely the silver bullet that will lead to a mass zombie genocide"
"If bankruptcies represent an essential process of capitalism's creative destruction, that too has slowed, and are now the lowest they've been since at least 1980 in the US. "
If they go bankrupt, the employees are out on the street.
"It started last December, when the IMF published a blog discussing the "Walking Debt: China's Zombies" (a topic we first covered in October 2015 in "More Than Half Of China's Commodity Companies Can't Pay The Interest On Their Debt"). "

Ron Paul weighs in on the stock market, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ng-be-calamity
Worldwide, the CBs are pumping money into the markets to support employment. It really isn't working out because automation is crushing wages. Mass unemployment is a big problem. The other problem is; some of the hot-money is flowing from the upper loop into the lower loop as price inflation. So, while mass unemployment is a potential huge problem, pricing people out of the housing market is equally dangerous. So much hot money flowed into the Canadian housing market that affordability has become a huge problem. In an effort to cool off the market, Canada limited foreign inflows. This too has a knock-on effect.
Canada shifts to the left,,,, capital leaves.

Interest rates have a big effect on sovereign debt service, "Who will tell the American people that in a couple of years, almost half their income tax payments will go to pay interest on the debt to Japan, China and all the others who buy American bonds? Who will tell the American people that the debt service we pay will be greater than our expenditures for the military?"
So, do we default OR, reduce the military? The article doesn't mention the HUGE increase in the cost of the safety net.

The results of the Italian elections brings the world MUCH closer to the deserved death of the mega-parasite called the eurozone.
Armstrong has a good article examining the question whether climate change is a linear progression OR, a catastrophic event.

What is left out of the discussion is; It isn't so much the temperature change that we have to worry about. About 1880, the magnetosphere started to weaken. This was the start of a natural progression going into a flip of the magnetic poles. The magnetosphere has weakened about 15%. When it reaches about 50%, we will lose copper-conducted power distribution AND satellite communications. The flip is accelerating (Suspicious Observers). Systems have started to go down,,, like the airlines reservation system.
During the Carrington Event, there was very little transmission by copper wires. The blackout many years later in Quebec showed what we can expect when the magnetosphere gets weak enough.
this would more-or-less correspond with the predictions of Ed Dames in "Killshot".

In the last several years, the sun has burped out MASSIVE solar flares that would have wiped us out IF we happened to be in the trajectory. Just a few months ago, the sun blasted Mars and fried it. We have been lucky so far.
Buy stock in fiber-optics companies.
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Old 03-08-2018, 04:13 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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A meltdown here,,, a meltdown there

"The figure shows the percentage of U.S. public companies reporting an annual loss, from 1960 through 2016. The two curves portray the percent “losers” from all public companies (lower curve), and the percent “losers” from all technology and science-based companies (computers, software, pharma, biotech, etc.), presented by the upper curve."
"he percent losers from all companies increased from 18% in 1980 to 46% in 2016.
For high tech and science-based companies the losers reached 69%! In 2016. "
"So, where is the economic recovery if half the companies are reporting losses? Shouldn’t a recovery be reflected by an increasing number of profitable companies? "
"This is a big number: 43-51% of all losers and 50-56% of science-based and high tech losers during 2010-2016 would have reported profits before SG&A."
"So, if I add the two major reasons for loss reporting - intangible investments and one-time items - I account for 50-60% of all the loss reporting. "
Keep in mind that many companies shuffle around expenses to minimize profits that would incur higher taxes.

"Japan has tried to achieve inflation by printing unlimited amounts of money. This is a country that has over one quadrillion in debt and where the central bank is buying all of the debt that the country issues. Eventually the Japanese economy will disappear into the Pacific"
After 11 years of massive money printing, the world has achieved no real growth. In the meantime global debt has doubled to $240 trillion which, if unfunded liabilities and derivatives are included, becomes a total liability for the world of $2 quadrillion. With global GDP at $80 trillion this means that total liabilities to GDP is 2,400%."

"Sweden’s Riksbank, has just realized that the bank has now lost control of the cash in the country. In the last 10 years, the value of cash in circulation in Sweden has halved from 112 billion kronor to 50 billion."
"Without a payment system that accepts the currency issued by the country, Ingves says, the Riksbank cannot carry out its role effectively.

Interesting how a country that has been promoting a cashless society for tax evasion and money laundering purposes now realizes that the consequences instead lead to a total loss of control of the country’s currency. "
"But studying the US stock market, using our proprietary cycle system, it now looks clear to me that the top is in for the Dow and for all the major US indices. The top was on January 26th and it was possible to predict already 18 months ago. If this is correct we will soon see a major decline in the US markets and also all world markets. "
Bank runs in Latvia, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ean-contagion/
The Eurozone was a flawed construction fated to die in a relatively short time. This led to a reluctance on the part of investors to buy into the Euro currency as a store of value. After all, the EU was simply a full-employment scam for bureaucrats. A big socialist employment scam. The Eurozone suffers from having total idiots like Donald Tusk running the show. Investors are not impressed and, they are leaving.
Meanwhile, the changes in the magnetosphere have driven the cold air out of the Arctic and down to lower latitudes. This is going to be an increasing problem.
3/07 Arctic has warmest winter on record: ‘It’s just crazy, crazy stuff’ – Guardian

California is DEMANDING federal money that it claims must be paid. BUT, this federal money is in the form of GRANTS. Governor Moonbeam is desperate to keep CALpers from crashing.
3/08 Brown says CA suit is a stunt by Sessions to please his boss – Bloomberg
3/08 You can now be arrested for sexism in Belgium – Daily Bell As long as you aren't muslim.

3/07 Europe’s recurring financial crisis has not, repeat, not ended – Forbes
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Old 03-09-2018, 03:16 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Continued destruction of the private sector

Post WW II, America had 24,500 tons of gold and more importantly, it had the reserve currency. It also had 3% of the population and 50% of the manufacturing capacity. Since the U.S. dollar was the reserve currency, foreign States had to EARN dollars by selling stuff to us. They had to undercut our domestic prices if they hoped to sell to us. America set up Japan as a satellite economy with low tariffs. That meant that they could easily undercut American prices. The end result was; they made quite a LOT of money. They could use that money to buy stuff from us. Also, they were urged to buy American GOV securities and bonds. The profits that they earned from the American private sector were recycled into federal debt. This money was spent on the welfare-warfare State. They sent us Toyotas and we sent them confetti.

As Japanese wages reached parity with American wages, Uncle Sam looked around for a new low-wage producer to set up as a satellite economy. China was given a most favored nation trading status. The great wage disparity with China allowed them to gut our manufacturing system. More importantly, the Chinese were "urged" to buy U.S. GOV debt. Over the decades, Japan had to be occasionally threatened to keep them buying U.S. debt AND, allowing U.S. bases on Japanese soil,,, to enforce these threats. Like Germany, Japan is still garrisoned.

China is not about to bend at the knee to placate America. We rattle sabers in the South China Seas and, in Taiwan. China is willing to be a satellite economy BUT, they will NOT be a satrap of the West. China can bring down the West any time that they want. All they have to do is to offer $2500 an OZ. for physical gold and, the system will collapse. They don't want to do this while they hold U.S. treasury debt.

Jim Willie says that they are dumping that debt.
Taiwan is toast any time that the Chinese say it is. The new hypersonic missiles and long-range cruise missiles would take out any naval assets sent to prevent them from crossing the 110 mile wide Formosa Straight.

In practice, the Bretton Woods agreement mandated that all States had to hold U.S. dollars as reserves. Later, the petro-dollar arrangement with Saudi Arabia meant that all States had to EARN and hold dollars to buy oil. The U.S. oil industry lost $ 20 billion last year. The FED subsidised the speculators who invested in the junk-bond market that lost this $20 billion. We consume about 19.69 million barrels per day.

As the rest of the world phases out the petro-dollar, foreign States have no reason to buy the dollar or Treasuries. The FED invented the BLICS to create a chimera to buy U.S. debt. Sovereign borrowing is screaming up when possible buyers have all run away. The FED plans to raise rates to attract foreign capital while the ECB and BOJ are stuck on zero. Once again, we see that the private sector will be sacrificed on the altar of prolonging the compounding of the public debt. It is expected that at least 50% of companies will go bust when interest rates revert to historical norms.

The State plans to attract foreign capital to the U.S. bond market regardless of what it does to private markets. Everybody in the upper echelons of State finance reads Martin Armstrong. He shows good cause to believe that U.S. public debt will default. The treasury will offer higher and higher rates of interest to attract buyers. Chances are; they will buy 90 day paper. The ECB and the Euro are on a death march. The hot money will flow into precious metals AND, as Armstrong indicates,, into American stocks. The least ugly house on the block.
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Old 03-09-2018, 04:42 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Priced out of the American economy with no savings

"The NFIB finds that 34% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill and 22% of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their most important problem, exceeding the percentage citing taxes or the cost of regulation."
That would be the "skills gap".
"the Fed ignores rising prices for financial assets (that is, things that benefit the big banks and their favored clients) while focusing intently on grocery store prices and wages, a sudden spike in hourly pay puts extreme pressure on the Fed to raise short-term rates and sell off the bonds it bought to force long rates down during the Great Recession."
So, wage inflation is BAD.

"The economy, as we currently calculate it, is roughly 70% driven by what you and I consume or “personal consumption expenditures (PCE).” The chart below shows the history of real, inflation-adjusted, PCE as a percent of real GDP."
"However, while the majority of consumers will receive an “average” of $1182 in the form of a tax reduction, (or $98.50 a month), the increase in take-home pay has already been offset by surging health care cost, rent, energy and higher debt service payments."
"The reality is that companies are NOT increasing wages because higher wages increase tax liability, benefit costs, etc. Higher payroll costs erode bottom line profitability."
"So, while companies are gaining media attention, and political favor, by issuing one-time bonus checks; the bottom 80% of workers are falling woefully behind the top 20%."
"But this is nothing new as corporations have failed to “share the wealth” for the last couple of decades."

"Since 2009, the TOTAL growth in sales per share has only been 39% or roughly 3.9% a year and yet earnings grew at 253% or roughly 25.3% a year."
Ah yes, wages were driven down as per-worker productivity went way up. Profitability was maintained by squeezing the blood out of labor.
"Simply, until you can substantially increase the consumptive capability of the bottom 80%, there will be no “economic boom.” "
There Will Be No Economic Boom – Part II | RIA

The State is to be your god. They will provide for all your needs. This mantra has unfolded as the Welfare State. The nuclear family was destroyed and the safety net was deployed under everybody. BUT,
40% of Americans spend up to half of their income servicing debt ...
40.9 million Americans, both homeowners and renters, spend more than 30% of their income on housing, including 19.8 million who spend over half of their income for housing.

The end result, "About 42 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for when they retire... 18.9% have zero saved."
The State inspired a false sense of security. The pension funds are gong broke.

When our wages failed to keep up with price inflation, the banks lengthened our credit terms. Now, we are buried in debt.
Student loans, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuT-865Oa1I&t=84s

Trump fired off a blast on the tariff question. There really is no way to win on that question.
"In 1930, Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act into law. As the world entered the early phases of the Great Depression, the measure was intended to protect American jobs and farmers. Ignoring warnings from global trade partners, the new law placed tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. which resulted in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods exported to other countries. By 1934, U.S. imports and exports were reduced by more than 50% and many Great Depression scholars have blamed the tariffs for playing a substantial role in amplifying the scope and duration of the Great Depression."

"Those policies were sponsored by U.S. leaders under the guise of “free trade” from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to ushering China in to the World Trade Organization (WTO). During that time, American politicians and corporations did not just rollover and accept unfair trade terms; there was clearly something in it for them. They knew that in exchange for unequal trade terms and mounting trade deficits came an implicit arrangement that the countries which export goods to the U.S. would also fund that consumption. Said differently, foreign countries sold America their goods on credit."
Yep, vendor financing.

"Those agreements, tariffs, and subsidies enable foreign competitors to employ cheap labor to make goods at prices that undercut U.S. producers
U.S. corporations moved production overseas to take advantage of cheap labor
U.S. dollars received by foreign producers are used to buy U.S. Treasuries "
The money squeezed from the wages of domestic workers is funnelled into Treasuries.

"The profits of U.S.-based manufacturing companies were enhanced with cheaper foreign labor, but the wages of U.S. employees were impaired, and jobs in the manufacturing sector were exported to foreign lands. This had the effect of hollowing out America’s industrial base "
"The trade agreements that accompanied WTO status and allowed China easier access to U.S. markets have resulted in an approximate quintupling of the amount of exports from China to the U.S. Similarly, there has been a concurrent increase in the amount of credit that China has extended the U.S. government through their purchase of U.S. Treasury securities as shown below."
" If the United States decides to equalize terms of trade, then we are redefining long-held agreements introduced and reinforced by previous administrations. In breaking with that tradition of “we give you dollars, you give us cheap goods (cars, toys, lawnmowers, steel, etc.), we will most certainly also need to source alternative demand for our debt."
So, the private sector gets skinned to keep public debt solvent. BUT, the whole safety net is evaporating. Most of our public debt was incurred fighting wars. Who did that benefit besides the offence contractors?

3/08 Gary Cohn’s departure “means disaster” – Daily Reckoning
Armstrong, Gary Cohn Resigns from Trump Administration – Good Riddance!
3/08 Goldman Sachs regency at the White House is finally over – David Stockman

So, Goldman Sachs is OUT of the White House.
3/08 JP Morgan co-president warns of ‘deep correction’ for stocks – CNBC We're still the least ugly house on the block..
3/08 Italy’s leaders denounce Brexit strategy – Mish Just wait til 5 Star gets into power and blows up everything.

Last edited by Danny B; 03-10-2018 at 03:29 AM. Reason: oops, mis-url
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Old 03-10-2018, 05:00 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Labor force baloney

Compensation, http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-c...n-per-hour.png
"A little more than half of its expansion was derived from the increase in labor utilization, while a little less than half was through increased efficiency of that labor."
"Or, another way of saying it is that these figures show once the 2015-16 downturn hit, businesses reduced their labor utilization (weaker jobs market, including wage and income growth) that necessarily had the effect of raising productivity given that output was largely the same on average.
"But even before then, productivity had only increased in 2008 and 2009 as a result of massive workforce reductions (layoffs),"
In other words, going back to 2004, the only way American businesses seem able to gain in labor productivity is to cut back on labor growth at the margins. "
Really Looking For Inflation, Part 1 | Alhambra Investments

The PTB use the CB to create constant monetary inflation. The person who sells his labor is always behind the curve. Wage depreciation is baked into the cake. At the same time, 47,000 GOV entities squeeze every American for fees and licenses, and everything else. This is all reported in their annual report. Read the site "CAFR 1". These agencies report that they are holding in excess of $200 trillion. FED GOV constantly squeezes out every penny of tax money that it can find. Your check is sent to a federal reserve bank. The Grace Commission formed by pres. Reagan reported that not one dime of income tax money goes to the GOV.
Keynes said that; "in the future, we would be so rich that we would not have to work more than 15 hours a week."

The FED is tasked with the job of providing constant inflation of the money supply to create constant deflation of our wages.
The money is shuttled to the parasites in the upper loop. Nobody would miss them if they all quit. BUT, if the actual productive worker only worked 15 hours a week, there would be paralysis of the economy.
The Bretton Woods agreement would have kept inflation to a minimum and, it would end all currency wars. It was VERY bad for bankers because they live-or-die based on inflation of the money supply.
With 95 million not in the labor force, there is a huge reduction in the production-consumption cycle. Automation means that there is little constraint in productivity but, a huge slowdown in consumption.

This has cut profitability. The corporatocracy has responded by reducing labor and increasing automation. They refuse and block all wage gains. We cut back on the birth rate. We cut back on non-discretionary spending. Their profits go down. They are too blind and stupid to see that general poverty cuts back on their profits.
3/09 Record 1 million full and part time jobs added – Zero Hedge
Here is Trumps take on fake jobs reports, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5HhT_cMhvo
Banks are getting out of mortgage lending and, non-banks are moving in.
"Brookings provides the failure hierarchy, and failure is a given.
To keep the latest bubble going, nonbanks kept lowering and lowering credit standards as home prices kept rising and rising."

Credit card delinquencies are priced as if they will be paid back. They won't.
As soon as recession hits, defaults and charge-offs will mount. In turn, this will reduce the amounts banks will be willing to lend.
Subprime corporations who had been borrowing money quarter after quarter will find they are priced out of the market, unable to roll over their debt."

David Stockman has a rant about protectionist tariffs for steel.
3/09 U.S. household debt rose last quarter at fastest rate since 2007 – Bloomberg Yep, maxing out the credit card.
3/09 Women’s pension crisis highlights dangers to savers – GoldCore Maybe they shouldn't have created the problems that brought about MGTOW.
3/08 Bitcoin’s famed Tokyo Whale sold $400 million and he’s not done yet – Fortune If they are so great, why is he selling out?
3/09 The end of cheap debt will bring a wave of bankruptcies – Mises Institute No kidding! Student loan defaults are over 40%. Credit cards are soon to follow.
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Old 03-11-2018, 06:31 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Credit expansion for bankers and wars

The State works very hard to educate you and convince you that; society & State are mutually beneficial and inseparable. So, you marry up a productive society with a parasitic State,,,, and everything works out fine. ALL States eventually default when they can non longer steal enough in taxes to keep the engorged parasite alive. What they can't steal with taxes, they steal with currency debasement.
Burke said, "war is the health of the State"
"War is the sport of kings."- English proverb
Fundamentals of Central Banking,,,, document from the G-30. Page one.
"Central banks were first established in the 17th century, with the primary purpose of providing war finance to governments"

"The Federal Reserve was created on December 23, 1913, "
"Federal Income Tax (1913) ... Passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913" The U.S could see war in Europe and, they had to expand finance. All of this because German producers were killing English producers in the markets.
Churchill,;"If Germany trades again in the next 50 years, WW I will have been for nothing"
The Grace Commission reported that no income taxes went to support FED GOV.
"On April 6, 1917, the U.S. joined its allies--Britain, France, and Russia--to fight in World War I."
"When the United States entered World War I, Strong (Benjamin Strong was FED head) was a major force behind the campaigns to fund the war effort via bonds " "In 1922, Strong unofficially scrapped the gold standard and instead began aggressively pursuing open market operations . Thus, he began the Federal Reserve’s practice of buying and selling government securities as monetary policy."
Strong was illegally selling U.S. bonds on the secondary market. All of his operations were done to supply currency inflation for the benefit of the bankers..

The turn of the century was marked by wildcat banking and a lot of bank failures. It is even claimed that many of the bank panics were created on purpose to bring in a Central Bank. G. Edward Griffin wrote, The Creature From Jekyll Island about the creation of the FED. At that time FED GOV was responsible for creating the money supply. The gold standard was a huge constraint on private money lending. The bankers worked for decades to get control of money creation. The State was amenable to this idea because it always needed more money for wars and vote-buying.
The original FED charter allowed for loaning on PRIVATE debt only. Normally, overnight loans backed only by good collateral. The State had the guns and the banks had the money. Guess what happened?

"The ability to create money by the Federal Reserve is essential as originally designed. However, that design was directly beneficial for it would buy ONLY short-term corporate paper in a crisis when banks could not lend. Buying corporate paper saved jobs. The key was a simple fact it was corporate and NOT the government. "
"It was not that the Fed was evil, it was that the Fed was usurped by Congress during World War I and directed to buy only the paper of the government. It was that aspect that has altered the role of the central bank and is demonstrated why the ECB in Europe now own 40% of all government debt and they cannot stop without creating a crisis. Elastic money was a good solution when it actually expanded in a shortage and contracted in surplus. That was ONLY possible when it was corporate paper and when the government ordered government paper should be bought EXCLUSIVELY, the entire system was undermined"

"The Creature of Jekyll Island advocates what Jackson did, and that will lead to a massive Sovereign Debt Crisis among the States and undermined the entire economy both domestically as well as internationally. That is by no means the answer. The answer lies in the curtailment of politicians. The banks owned the Fed BECAUSE it was a bailout system that they paid into. It was never intended that taxpayer money would be used to bail out banks. Once the banks became the seller of government debt, they then had a grip on government and with the Fed only buying government debt, the entire system is nothing like the intended design."

Armstrong is a banker and sees no evil in the FED. Bankers survive by being close the State money spigot so, of course he sees no problem as long as the new money goes to the bankers.
"In 1922, Strong unofficially scrapped the gold standard and instead began aggressively pursuing open market operations . Thus, he began the Federal Reserve’s practice of buying and selling government securities "
What he did was completely illegal according the the FED charter. Armstrong can blame the State but, Strong did this just for private profit.
So, Strong gave us the roaring 20s thanks to his CB inflation. It was all illegal. He died the year before the Great Depression I and didn't get to see the results of his handiwork.
Greenspan and Bernanke will most likely be alive for great Depression II.

The Bretton Woods agreement was an effort to prevent States from expanding their currency / credit supply to open up a war. All currencies were linked to the dollar and, the dollar was linked to gold. The CBs original purpose was war finance. Bretton Woods locked up the CB / State with golden chains. BUT, once again, it depended on the honesty of politicians. One faction of the PTB worked to get the welfare-warfare state in operation. This would eventually guarantee the end of the constraints of Bretton Woods. By 1971, this had been accomplished and, the chains of gold had been broken. Once again, war was everywhere.
We are coming to the end of the credit super-cycle. Killary wanted to get the zionist-approved WW III before the credit collapse hit.

If the FED does indeed carry through with cutbacks, this will go a long way towards preventing war.
3/10 Mutual fund whale goes “all in” on junk bonds – Mish The junk-bond market is a leading indicator of financial stress. Is the FED or ESF or PPT holding up the junk-bond market? Will there truly be a cutback in new debt creation?
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Old 03-11-2018, 06:25 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Rise of populism as an antidote to "democracy"

My last post ran long and I didn't finish my thought.
The State assures us that it is an integral and necessary part of society. The State assures us that we have a democracy where the people run the Government. After all, we elect our leaders..

"If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." - Mark Twain
“The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.”—Joseph Stalin,

The fact is, only the rich can afford to run for office. Even if the candidates are not part of the kleptocracy, they soon learn that the strings are pulled by powerful people behind the scene.

Politics: The conduct of public affairs for private advantage.- Ambrose Bierce
The kleptocracy is a big club and, as George Carlin put it, "you ain't in it"

The bankers create money out of thin air and, loan it to the State. The State always throws the burden on the public so, it doesn’t care. The bankers receive interest income so, they aren't concerned about repayment. The CB expands the money supply 2% a year and pumps this through the bankers and into circulation. This is on top of the debt-service cost they receive.

The kleptocracy can be described as; anyone who rents out money that wasn't created by profitable enterprise. This includes stock gains that originated with CB capital infusions. War-profiteering is very lucrative but, it is profit based on death and destruction, not on bettering society.

The question is: where did that money go? It was wasted, Jack Ma explained. “In the past 30 years, America has had 13 wars at a cost of $14.2 trillion.Jan 18, 2017

JFK was correct in trying to end the CIA.
Rense, Nearly 50% Dems Running For Congress Are Intelligence
Operatives - In 57 Of 102 Congressional Districts - Vid
Valerie Plame tweets story blaming 'America's Jews' for foreign wars

The CIA runs all the dirty operations for the State.

This brings us to the question of; if we truly live in a democracy, why can't we stop executing and paying for all these wars that we don't want?
The answer is, of course, we don't live in a democracy.

SLOWLY getting to my central idea, here is an article about a looming trade war. BUT, the article has a second theme. The rise of populism is MUCH feared.

Populism, "support for the concerns of ordinary people."
Democracy, "Control of an organization or group by the majority of its members."
Plainly, we don't have a democracy because we are controlled by a minority.

"it's hard to get away from the fact that the overall result was another resounding vote for populism. Indeed over 50% of votes submitted was for a populist party"

"Deutsche Bank's populism index showed, the percentage of votes for populist parties on a population weighted basis was now around 32% - a level its largely held since the Trump inspired surge in 2016. In fact, you had to go all the way back to the WWII period to find the last time that populism had such support."

SO, in the run-up to war, people voted to exit our sham democracy and, support the little guy. AND avoid war.
Good thing that the Germans sank the Lusitania.
Good thing that the Japanese did a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.
"Reid's troubling conclusion is that "it's hard to get away from the fact that populism is currently going through an explosion in support at present."

Maybe that is because we have been robbed blind.

"At a time when global central banks are moving towards an unprecedented era of tightening and dealing with years of massive asset purchases, risks from rising populist support has the ability to seriously disturb the prevailing equilibrium of the last few years and subsequently markets."

This so-called equilibrium was a geometric rise in debt laid onto the backs of the working man.

While Reid notes that this is more of a slow burning issue over the next few years, he concedes that populism remains the biggest threat "to the post-1980 globalisation/liberalism world order."
The money renters are terrified that an incumbent Government like 5 Star might actually look out for the little guy.
ALL of this gets back to war financing. Populism is the enemy of war and globalism.
Rise of populism in Europe 'a real threat to democracy' | Euronews
Latest breaking news available as free video on demand | Euronews › News › World

As the spectre of war rises, the average person tries to pull back.

Göring: "Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship."

Populism threatens the war-profiteers, the bankers.
The private bankers loaned money to Greece. When Greece couldn't pay, the German government made this into a State crime and "legally" destroyed Greece. Italy has an enormous debt load and, there is a claim that the bankers are going to do the same thing to Italy.
It is also claimed that we are due for another false flag operation to nudge us to where the globalists want us to go.
Rumored that the pension cuts will star before long, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzQpe9UjyFo&t=7s

Mike Adams of Health Ranger says that massive depopulation is the only way for the State to avoid collapse.
He must be speaking some truth. They eliminated his entire channel.
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Old 03-12-2018, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The CBs take the helm but, the rudder is broken

3/11 QE unwind is too slow, says Fed governor, launching first trial balloon – Wolf Street
3/12 BIS to central banks: Keep calm and carry on with policy normalization – Reuters

"All of this suggests that the consensus is again playing catch-up on the cyclical outlook, while international central banks, concerned about overheating, are even further behind, and mistaking last year’s synchronized growth upturn for a structural shift toward a “normal” economy."
Global growth HAS rolled over, https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...v0/1000x-1.png

"While central bankers try to explain away the phenomenon of these out-of-control numbers, it’s not much of a mystery. Immediate consumption with the promise of repayment sometime in the future has consequences. Global debt is staggering to the point most of it will never be repaid. Certainly not in our generation. "
"Globalization is giving way to “islandization,” where the movement of capital and good across borders is being limited instead of expanded. This limited global trading, along with rising geopolitical tensions, will negatively affect global economic expansion, while the global debt is still spiralling out of control."
The $233 Trillion Dollar Dark Cloud of Global Debt - Gold Telegraph

98% of the gold held at the New York FED is owned for foreign states. America is exporting record amounts of gold. Just who is the rightful owner of this gold?

3/12 Regulation will send cryptocurrencies even higher – Daily Reckoning
3/11 Bitcoin prices fall below $9,000, a 24% decline for the week – USA Today
Mysterious cryptocurrency scammers ran off with more than $2 million after ditching their investors

3/12 Millions of families on brink face deepest benefit cuts in years – Guardian
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Old 03-13-2018, 02:46 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fracking BS,,,Systemic pumping & FED bubble popping

Armstrong, "By next year, the US will become the world’s largest oil producer thanks to the fracking boom. "
Why The Shale Oil "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" | Zero Hedge
Energy Crash — 97% of Fracking Now Operating at a Loss at Current
SNAKE OIL: Chapter 5 – The Economics of Fracking: Who Benefits?
The Latest Red Flag For U.S. Shale | OilPrice.com
Where Money Goes to Die: How Fracking Blows Up Balance Sheets of Oil and Gas Companies

Meanwhile, China and Russia are locked together in oil deals, https://www.rt.com/business/421021-c...neft-purchase/
On march 24, China will exit the dollar for oil sales. The net is calling for a total crash of the economy. Umm, don't hold your breath.

The new FED head is surprisingly, a gentile. He does NOT have a phd in economics so, that is a good thing. The academics have their heads full of BS. Here is a comment from Zero Hedge.
The bankers also create the money supply from bank credit, so they can create money and demand for the financial assets they produce themselves with interbank trading. They need securitisation so they can get this debt off their books and just keep going until there is a systemic collapse. They securitize the debt and sell it into the markets until this bad debt, used to inflate financial asset prices, saturates the markets.

Today’s central banker is turned into a useful idiot by looking at consumer price inflation and not financial asset price inflation.
Today’s central banker is usually an academic economist filled with the nonsense of neoclassical economics.

Today’s central banker does know they can artificially inflate the markets with QE, but it never occurs to them this is what the bankers have been doing. The bankers have been pumping money, they create themselves, into the markets and collecting fees and capital gains along the way.

So, the private banks create liquidity until the system is overloaded with debt. Then, the CB has to step in to save the system. What happens if the CB does NOT step in?

3/13 The Fed is going “cold turkey” – Daily Reckoning
3/13 U.S. posts biggest budget deficit since 2012 – Bloomberg
So, are the Treasury and congress prepared to go cold turkey? Is this an excuse to pull the rug our from under Trump?
3/13 5 reasons for a higher inflation forecast – Forbes Tell me more. Where does the inflation come from if the FED stops inflating the money supply?
3/13 Companies are putting tax savings in the pockets of shareholders – CNBC The money drifts upward, no surprise.
Here is an interesting graph showing our current "dead cat" bounce, https://cdn.opendemocracy.net/neweco...t-13.52.41.png
The unfolding pole flip will take out all long-distance power transmission over copper. The IRS is making it easier to have a stand-alone home power system, https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...lar#gs.lXmAsaQ
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:53 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The entire speculative "community" is working against you

There is a limit to the amount of leverage that bankers can create on the money that they hold. If they could use unlimited leverage, it would all soon blow up. They leverage the capital that they hold.
The Glass-Steagal act separated YOUR money from the money that they can speculate with. This applies to commercial banks. The Graham-Leachy act removed this barrier and allowed the banks to speculate with your money also. 1999.
The commercial banks all have commodity trading desks. Since they now have YOUR money to speculate with, they can leverage WAY up and buy a LOT of commodities.

"He told Kroft the problem was in the commodities markets, which had been invaded by a new breed of investor.

Gilligan said these investors don’t actually take delivery of the oil. “All they do is buy the paper, and hope that they can sell it for more than they paid for it. The volatility is being driven by the huge amounts of money and the huge amounts of leverage that is going into these markets.”

About the same time, hedge fund manager Michael Masters reached the same conclusion. Masters’ expertise is in tracking the flow of investments into and out of financial markets and he noticed huge amounts of money leaving stocks for commodities and oil futures, most of it going into index funds, betting the price of oil was going to go up."
"Wall Street trading desks were following right behind them, putting money – sovereign wealth funds were putting money in the futures markets as well. So you had all these investors putting money in the futures markets. And that was driving the price up.”

27 barrels of crude were being traded for every 1 barrel of oil consumed…"
"In a five-year period, Masters said the amount of money institutional investors, hedge funds, and the big Wall Street banks had placed in the commodities markets went from $13 billion to $300 billion. "
"And Michael Masters says the U.S. Department of Energy’s own statistics show that if the markets had been working properly, the price of oil should have been going down, not up."
"“From quarter four of ’07 until the second quarter of ’08 the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, said that supply went up, worldwide supply went up. And worldwide demand went down. So you have supply going up and demand going down, which generally means the price is going down,” Masters told Kroft. “So you had the largest price increase in history during a time when actual demand was going down and actual supply was going up during the same period. "
Yes, and look what happened to the stock market in the same period.

“Most of the trading is now conducted in secret, with no public scrutiny or government oversight. Over time, the big Wall Street banks were allowed to buy and sell as many oil contracts as they wanted for their clients, circumventing regulations intended to limit speculation. And in 2000, Congress effectively deregulated the futures market,"
Understanding How Oil Is Traded

So, the banks took your money and, speculated against you. ALL the commodities speculators are buying on margin and inflating the prices. Congress has helped them out greatly.

If you have any doubt that the economy is run by a pack of thieving 8astards, here is further corroboration.

"Federal Reserve officials have been talking about operating regimes for years, and the discussion continues as the central bank struggles to reach its 2 percent inflation target, which it has missed for most of the past five years. Core consumer-price gains came in at 1.8 percent in February from a year earlier"
consumer-price gains so, we are GAINING when prices go up.
"The aggregate increase of the consumer price index from 2006 to 2017 was about 24 percent."
"Average home prices are now significantly higher than they were at the top of the bubble, as shown by the S&P Case-Shiller national home price index."
"The Fed was on the case, and up real home prices went rapidly again, rising over 5 percent a year on average from 2012 to 2017. Their current real level is equal to that of mid-2004, when the bubble was already well inflated, and it is far over — 28 percent over — their trend line as extended from 2000."
Home prices soar high as Federal Reserve hopes to avoid big crash | TheHill

"Central banks now own almost half of global GDP? Is this a market economy, or something else:" The article is about the current tech boom / crash. You can count on it.
Technically Speaking: Chart Of The Year? | RIA
It's Déjà vu all over again.
Is The Dot.Com Bubble Back? | RIA

More and more States are getting nervous about NOT having their gold within their borders. https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-bl...-repatriation/

3/14 Higher U.S. rates now threaten a post-crisis refuge for yield – Bloomberg Post crisis, my arse
3/14 New Jersey prepares to raise taxes on “almost everything” – Zero Hedge
3/14 Venezuela urged to save itself by becoming a U.S. colony – GATA That certainly comes out of left field.
3/13 Home prices are increasing twice as fast as income growth – CNBC
3/13 Quantum computers will make even “strong” passwords worthless – Mish

3/07 Leaked files show how NSA tracks other countries’ hackers – Intercept Maybe so but, the NSA got hacked.
3/14 Globalists & nationalists: who owns the future? – Bachanan While the battle it out, Mother Nature and the pole flip will make the decision.
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Old 03-15-2018, 02:58 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The banks don't actually produce anything so, how to make a profit? The banks produce free liquidity and invest in commodities, etc. The investors get almost free money and invest in everything. Since they invest with a small sum, (the rest is credit with the brokerage), they can leverage-up their profits. The wage worker who sells his labor can NOT leverage up anything. All he can do is to ""leverage"" his earnings by using credit for purchases. So, while the investor gets a positive return, the interest burden on the credit used by the worker is a negative "return".

Natural progression means that the rich get richer and the worker gets poorer.
THE BANKERS FRONT-RUN EVERYTHING. Everything that you buy, they bought it first,,, then, they resell it to you.
The creation of the welfare-warfare State guaranteed that America would break down the Bretton Woods agreement. A few years later, Nixon was in the drivers seat when it all blew up. He should have re-priced what was left of our gold but, nobody really knew what outcome to expect.
Breaking the chains of gold allowed the bankers to do unlimited money creation.
Since they were first in line to get the money, they drove up the price of everything. There was a common old quote, "if the price of food keeps going up, you won't be able to get a bag of groceries for 5 dollars"
The FED targets 2% price inflation. This really adds up over time.
Currently, they created enormous currency inflation trying to get the desired price inflation.

Many decades ago, England didn't allow people to get married unless they had a place to live. This cut down on reproduction in the poorer classes. Many men were killed in the incessant wars. Many men spent their lives at sea or, in the colonies. Population control in the colonies like India was accomplished by holding rotating famines.
Then and Now: British Imperial Policy Means Famine
Things have now gone the other way, and population growth is too low to support the ruling class.

What happens to the investor class when the working class can't afford what the rich want to sell? The working class runs up a huge credit bubble and then, defaults. The sub-prime crash was a case of; hot money from the upper loop bled over into the lower loop. The banks financed all those flipper.
That S.O.B. Greenspan said that we had to get rid of Glass-Steagal so that American banks could compete with European banks. BS. The NYC banks wanted to have an advantage over the London bankers. The financial class was just TOO BIG. There wasn't enough profit to go around by skimming the middle class. Once the banks got hold of your money, they were more able to front-run every purchase that you made. Profitability came back. They kicked inflation into high gear and bought up everything. BUT, the middle class was wiped out by low-wage competitors. The upper loop grew ENORMOUS. It could no longer be sustained by skimming the lower loop. It needed CONSTANT infusions of CB money to replace the missing profits.

Congress enabled the bankers to outsource your job and "borrow" your savings. The FED enabled the bankers to avoid paying $400 billion a year in interest income to savers. All of this thievery kept the system going for a while longer.
It remains to be seen just how much of the speculator class will be left when the dust settle.

Youtube headings;
Canada gets honorable mention;
Canadians Have the MOST DEBT In the World! Why Middle Class Canada Will Face MASS BANKRUPTCY!
Canada: A Nation Crashing with NO SURVIVORS

BTW, Trudeau say that Canadians are demanding MORE immigration.
EU Revolt: Poland Says 12 Nations Ready to Stand Against Brussels!!
There is no federal debt in the EU. Each nation holds it's own debt. You can bet that there will be capital flight and Brussels will blow up.
James Howard Kunstler: The Coming Economy Of "Less"
The Next Great Depression Is Going To Be A Collapse Of Bonds And Governments Martin Armstrong
March 24, 2018 ! Charles Hugh Smith Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse !

OK, keep in mind that these are middle-of-the-road people who are fairly rational. Her are a few vids from X22 report, Money Master, Jim Rickards

March 24, 2018 Collapse Date. The Great Crash Is Coming! Prepare For The Financial Crisis 2018
Jim Rickards 'Listen Up! The Financial Elite Will Soon Prevent You Accessing Your money
March 24, 2018 Collapse Date. The Great Crash Is Coming! Prepare For The Collapse.
March 24, 2018 ! Has The Date Been Set For The Great Economic Collapse ! Jim Willie
Alert!! The Fed is Pulling The Plug On The Entire Market, They're Bringing Down The economy
LYNETTE ZANG Financial Collapse Coming %100 in March 24, 2018
This Is Not A Drill! The Economic Crisis Will Start This March 24, 2018 & Last For 5 years
The People Are Going To Be Shocked, 30%-50% Fall In Net Worth Dead Ahead - Episode 1474a X22Report
The Next Crisis Will Come Soon & Will Be BIG - Mike Maloney @Anarchapulco 2018

OK, you get the idea. China will start a new oil futures market and everybody is worried about that date. I'm not worried about that date. There are MANY States that MUST sell their oil to keep their people fed. Currently, Treasury bond sales are well covered. As long as they accept our bonds, the oil will flow. Armstrong is adamant about a collapse of U.S. sovereign debt. I don't see it happening just yet.
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Old 03-16-2018, 01:04 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Armstrong,,, corporate debt

Armstrong said that politicians are the WORST people at making economic decisions.
"Extremely reliable sources from Behind the Curtain in Europe are becoming deeply concerned that Draghi at the ECB has created a monumental economic disaster he is just praying to holding off until he leaves next year."
Draghi came straight from Goldman Sachs.
26 Goldman Sachs Alumni Who Run the World (GS) | Investopedia
Both the politicians and the bankers are EVIL,,, just different flavors.

Armstrong on the disappearance of metal coins. Looks good for gold and silver.
Armstrong also writes that the State will NEVER avoid a crisis, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/f...e-have-panics/

The Economist Magazine is the mouthpiece of the financial PTB. They are now warning that corporate debt is far too high and, dangerous,
THIS is from the article, "The total debt of American non-financial corporations as a percentage of GDP has reached a record high of 73.3%".
THIS is from comments;
"One can only pay debt back out of earnings after taxes. Not GDP.
Corporate debt stands at 6.1 Trillion Dollars. Corporate profits after taxes are 1.644.Trillion Dollars
That's a factor of 3.71 dollars of debt for every dollar of profit after taxes that is available to pay back that debt.
And that makes the ratio of corporate debt to profits after taxes much much more dire than the ratio of corporate debt to GDP makes it sound.
As rates rise, profits decline, and the picture gets exponentially worse."

"Expanding on Minsky’s theory, former Federal Reserve governor Laurence Meyer clarified the concept stating that “a period of stability induces behavioral responses that erode margins of safety, reduce liquidity, raise cash flow commitments relative to income and profits, and raise the price of risky relative to safe assets–all combining to weaken the ability of the economy to withstand even modest adverse shocks.”
The shock will NOT be moderate. With the rise in interest rates, the carry-cost of corporate debt will shoot sky-high.

The more that volatility increases, the higher the interest rates go,,,, to compensate for volatility. Volatility is climbing fast.

Here are some good articles on how the State will use your bank account to bail in the banks.
More articles at the bottom. My balance never seems to get over $150, or so.
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Old 03-16-2018, 04:22 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Financial risk,,FED, brought to you by war,,,Corporate meltdown

I got interrupted by time wasters.
A huge part of economic action is related to confidence. Most of that is related to human nature. There is another area of human nature that enters into all of this; RISK
How much are you risking? Here is an excellent article examining how much the financial sector is risking.

Tue, 03/13/2018
"For the Lebanese-American thinker, their shared sin is that (with some exceptions) they lack “skin in the game”. By this, Taleb means they are insulated from the consequences of their actions: they do not have “a share of the harm” or “pay a penalty if something goes wrong”. This “asymmetry in risk bearing”, he warns, leads to “imbalances”, “black swans” (the rare but high-impact events described in his 2007 mega-seller) and “potentially, to systemic ruin”.
"In Taleb’s universe, the fieriest circle of hell is reserved for bankers and neoconservatives.
“The best thing that could happen to society is the bankruptcy of Goldman Sachs,” he tells me.
“Banking is rent-seeking of industrial proportions.”

"Yet are there times when a lack of skin in the game is defensible? Taleb concedes that an exception should be made for jurors. “You don’t do it for a living, you have a cleaner opinion than someone who gets involved.” Taleb, a philosophical sceptic, influenced by Burkean and libertarian thought, observes: “I’m against universalism right there. Skin in the game is not something universal.”

Comments, "Send ALL warmongers to the front immediately. Boeing, Lockheed, general Dynamics... all board of directors and staff and relatives. and members of congress who voted for "police actions".

Then bankrupt GS and JPM, DB, actually there's a list on https://philosophyofmetrics.com/wp-c...Banks-2015.pdf

"The 2ND BANK OF THE UNITED STATES was 'liquidated' in 1841 (after having been taken private as result of Andrew Jackson standing in the way of its 20 year charter getting renewed, & which, oh by the way, had existed since 1816, which, oh by the way, came about after the FIRST BANK OF THE UNITED STATES, charter had expired in 1811, and whereupon it NOT being renewed right away, the WAR OF 1812 started & Washington, DC was burned to the ground)...

Soon after Andrew Jackson's 'triumph' came to be, the "WAR OF NORTHERN AGGRESSION" (aka ~ The Civil War started), & within 50 years (& 3 Presidential Assassinations occurred ~ not counting the 2 attempts on AJ, and one on Theodore Roosevelt)... THE FED was established.
So yeah ~ LIQUIDATE Goldman Sachs (who is owned by the same banking families who participated in the aforementioned history)..."

1) Too Big To Fail

2) Too Big To Jail

3) Too Rigged To Fail

4) Too Kosher To Jail

Like our war-monger politicians who never get close to the front lines.

Charles Huge smith has a good article about the intersection of 4 cycles.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Checking In on the Four Intersecting Cycles
3/16 Moody’s warns a deluge of retail bankruptcies is coming – Zero Hedge No doubt.
3/16 Corporate America’s undertakers prepare for feast after lean years – Reuters So, do you think that employment will be affected?
3/16 JPMorgan moves closer to urging a rotation away from equities – Bloomberg Into WHAT?,,,, maybe housing
3/15 U.S. home prices rise almost 9%, the biggest gain in four years – Bloomberg
3/14 Home prices soar high as federal reserve hopes to avoid big crash – Hill
The hot money has priced Joe six pack out of the market.

3/16 Russia conflict could trigger ‘something we can’t control’ – Business Insider
3/16 The Neocon full court press for war is here – Gold Goats ‘n Guns

None dare call it STUPID.
3/16 Guts of U.S. CPI data show key inflation gauge weakest in years – Bloomberg The feces-for-brains just don't understand. You can't raise prices for people who are on a fixed income. They stop buying. If they can't afford food,,,, then, you have a new problem.

Last edited by Danny B; 03-16-2018 at 04:24 AM. Reason: Missing link
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Old 03-16-2018, 11:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Armstrong and cycles

Reportedly, "Only the lightest 3 elements were present when the universe were born, and they were: Hydrogen, Helium and Lithium. All heavier elements were made in the centers of stars, either during fusion or during Type II supernova explosions. All elements heavier than iron are created in supernovae."
We are made of stardust. The galaxies are recycled,,, just as we are recycled. The cycles go on and on,, everywhere. We are somewhat aware of short cycles like night & day,,,, winter & summer. The longer cycles are often too long and chaotic for us to factor into our lives. The State would have us believe that we are in a state of permanent prosperity. It has never happened yet.

"The majority of society ignores history because that is the past and somehow irrelevant because we are more sophisticated today and those people ran around in diapers chucking spears at each other. This merely ensures that history repeats because they are far too ignorant to comprehend that life is like a Shakespeare play. It has been performed for hundreds of years and the only thing that changes has been the actors."

"Human society as a whole expects a linear life of happily ever after and when that fails, they advocate punishing the person responsible. They cannot dare investigate that just perhaps the world works in a far more complicated manner than just that.

Those who think only linear cannot avoid the crash and burn. Those who see the world cyclically understand there is a time and place for everything."

This article is about the power shift in Germany but, it has importance everywhere.
"Stalin did everything he could to take power. This has been the curse of the left. They see themselves in a war against the producers and whatever action they take, it is always for the good of the people. This attitude marks the left who always seek to subjugate the right. They never believe in human rights other than their own and have historically always taken an authoritarian position painting themselves as the victim being exploited by the right."

"When you look around the globe, what you see is a rising intense fight building between the left v right, i.e. Thieves v Producers in terms of Ann Rand."
"The left will make a major stand to seize control globally. They will be VERY OPPRESSIVE and this is what will end up destroying the West as we see the economic epic center move to Asia "
"World economic growth (GDP) peaked in 1973" "However, you can easily see from this chart of world GDP, socialism is dying. The Pension Crisis will be a major event and the failure of that system will spark not just civil unrest, but the left assaulting the right. The left will look to plunder the wealth of the right and justify it in their minds as they are entitled to this because the right got rich by exploiting the left. "

"The more the left seeks to raise taxes and punish the producers, the greater the producers will hoard and not invest and we will see a continued decline in economic growth rates. We can see that we really cannot get world GDP above the 3% level. The decline post-2007 has been profound and 10 years of Quantitative Easing has only caused wealth to contract. Negative interest rates sparked more hoarding of cash even among the middle class.

Draghi is holding on for dear life. He has no prayer in hell to restore the economy of Europe. All he has done is kept the governments on life-support. When they cannot sell their bonds, they will raise taxes drastically to try to stay afloat. This is how history repeats. "

Armstrong sees a lot of black & white. He condemns Jackson for destroying the second national Central Bank. He flat-out refuses to admit that handing that much power to an unelected group to create the money supply would invite disaster. He laments that the FED was forced to buy GOV bonds. What did he think that the State would do when it wanted more money? He DEMANDS that America have an elastic money supply,,, not thinking that the non-producers would stretch the elastic.
His thought processes are tainted because he doesn't recognise that there is a finite limit to the number of people who can get rich just by moving money around.
He recognises cycles in climate but, is oblivious to the pole flip. It hasn't been documented in history so, he doesn't factor it in. Earth is moving out of 2 protective fields and out of a dust cloud. This will greatly increase background radiation and mutations. Weather will become much more volatile.
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:35 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Capital flight to U.S. equities

On March 26, 2018, China will launch an oil futures market in Yuan. MANY States have already done currency swaps with China so, it will be easy to buy futures on oil markets with Yuan. Almost every nation in the world is tired of pox Americana blowing up everything that it can't steal. They will be happy to stop financing world destruction.
"BofA calculates that equity inflows are outpacing bond inflows for the first time since 2013, with annualized flows of $717 billion."
"And yet, something odd has emerged: the record inflows are out of step with more muted returns from equities: "chart-topping inflows not coinciding with headline returns."

"another record was broken in the last week when $2.6 billion went into tech stocks this week, an all time high, putting the excesses of the dot come era to shame. So far, a total of $9.8 billion has gone into tech funds YTD, making the annualized flow figure a massive $46.5 billion."
"But wait, there's more: there was also a record inflow into US growth ($5.8bn), US small cap ($5.4bn), and US value ($4.1bn) funds.

"Meanwhile, European stocks saw modest outflows of $1.3 billion," EVERYONE in Europe knows that Draghi will fail spectacularly. They are pulling their money out. Armstrong states that the ECB won't be able to sell sovereign bonds. Armstrong claims that they will resort to tax increases. For every Euro of additional taxes, the economy shrinks 3 Euros. After all, taxes reduce the operating capital of the country. So, add in the capital flight to the tax increases.
There are massive inflows to American equities, not so much for earnings,,, more so for protection.
Corporate America is dead in the water. The FED hopes to attract capital to America by raising rates. These rate hikes are destined to kill off corporate America. Corporate America went on a debt splurge to buy up their own stocks. Corporate America does NOT have enough earnings to service their debt. It is doubtful that capital inflows can save a company that has no earnings.

There are lots of States that would prefer to buy oil in Yuan, instead of dollars. DEDOLLARIZATION - Unwanted dollars are coming home to roost. Investors will send their dollars here and hope to lose less than they would have lost if they stayed in European markets. Everybody reads Armstrong and his warnings that U.S. sovereign debt will crash. Not much is flowing into sovereign debt. "Treasuries funds drew in $0.3 billion"

So, America is predicted to be the last to collapse. BUT, when European bond markets collapse, most other markets will die of contagion. The derivatives held by Deutsch bank amount to 6 times the German GDP.
The time between European collapse and, American collapse may be measured in seconds. It is stated that these particular derivatives cancel each other out and, only leave a nominal amount of , perhaps, $1 trillion.
THAT will occur if ALL the counter parties pony up the money.

3/16 UK economy in grip of most feeble recovery on modern record – Independent $11 trillion just doesn't buy what it used to.
3/16 Job openings soar by 645,000 to all time high 6.3 million – Zero Hedge We have to re-train gardeners to write code.
3/16 The world economy risks turning too hot to handle – Bloomberg ONLY the upper loop.
The new FED head says to "buy dollars and, sell gold. Yeah, right.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Morality and commerce

Mother Nature does not "do" morality, ONLY survival. From plankton to the brontosaurus, it is all about eating and surviving. Man creates a society to escape the simple "law of the jungle". Agriculture allowed man to produce surplus food and create a peaceful society. Without surplus food, we return to the "law of the jungle". Witness Rhodesia where they got rid of the farmers and, the "law of the jungle" returned.

In a peaceful society, the creation of scientific advancement means that man can get better control of the environment and, his security and future. He can escape a "brute existence".

The "law of the jungle" is simply, the strong killing the weak. The adherence of society to morality allows for a peaceful and productive society / economy. Either we adhere to morality or, we return to the jungle.

When the practical limitations to the expansion of the money supply ended, the bankers were free to spend any amount of money to buy politicians. When the immortal corporation was created with almost complete legal immunity, the resulting monster was almost completely free of moral considerations. Regulatory-capture meant that nothing that the bankers wanted to do was illegal.

Religion was a convenient vehicle to teach a moral code to our children. Society can't exist without ingrained moral guidance. NO law can control a man who refuses to control himself. Because of the nature of the corporation, it has even less self-governance related to morality.

The State is equally immune from prosecution and, equally immortal. History proves this to be untrue but, the State operates as if it were unlimited and immortal.

Society and religion gave us a god who has rules to propagate society and religion. God is all-powerful and doesn't need to lust after power. He gives us 10 major rules for the continuation of a moral society. We must teach morality to our children or, watch the dis-integration of society. Morality is a HUGE hindrance to the "law of the jungle".

The corporate banking "machine" is strictly predatory.

The State is strictly parasitic. Socialism is immoral, in that it is theft. Socialism is impractical in that, it robs reward and incentive from the producer.

South Africa is in the process of taking the farmland from the producers. They can see what resulted when the same thing was done to Rhodesia but, the socialists won't let that stop them.

Moral collapse brings financial collapse. Predations of the State eventually bring revolution. There doesn't seem to be ANY exceptions.

History fails to record a single precedent in which nations subject to moral decay have not passed into political and economic decline. There has been either a spiritual awakening to overcome the moral lapse, or a progressive deterioration leading to ultimate national disaster. Douglas MacArthur

The bankers get a good laugh when the rip off the "muppets". They can salve their conscience by claiming that they did nothing illegal. Maybe they feel a twinge of guilt at killing and robbing MANY millions of people. Here is a vid from a movie about a guy who personally gets revenge on those who destroyed him and his wife.

Assault on Wall Street Best Scene
Putin is doing his best to create a resurgence of the orthodox church in Russia. The West is doing it's best to purge the 10 commandments and any traces of religion from society. Then eventual result will be a further collapse of trust and commerce.
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Old 03-18-2018, 05:26 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Our economic engine is starting to flame out

3/16 Moody’s warns a deluge of retail bankruptcies is coming – Zero Hedge
So, what inspires them to forecast a wave of bankruptcies?
yet-another-chart-screams-look-out | DollarCollapse.com

These charts reflect foreign capital inflows. The French GOV spends 57% of the GDP to keep everything going. The U.S. spends 24%. Armstrong warns of sovereign default and everybody sees it coming. Eurozone States do not have an aggregated State(s) debt. The sovereign bond markets of the weakest economies have been deserted. Everybody wants German Bunds. As America raises rates, the Eurozone must match or, watch the money leave. But, there is another problem.

3/18 US gross national debt spikes $1.2 trillion in 6 months – Wolf STreet
So, at what point will trust be lost?
"March 17, 2008 - Financial Times (Gillian Tett): "In recent years, bankers have succumbed to the idea that the credit world was all about numbers and complex computer models. For as anyone with a classical education knows, credit takes its root from the Latin word credere ("to trust") And as the current credit turmoil now mutates into ever-more virulent forms, it is faith - or, rather, the lack of it - that has turned a subprime squall into a what is arguably the worst financial *crisis in seven decades. Make no mistake: what we are witnessing right now is not just a collapse of faith in one single institution (namely Bear Stearns) or even an asset class (those dodgy subprime mortgage bonds). Instead, it stems from a loss of trust in the whole style of modern finance"

"One can age the mortgage finance Bubble period at about six years,"
"We'll soon be approaching 10 years of what I back in 2009 labelled the "global government finance Bubble."

Stockman, "Goldilocks is a conceit of monetary central planning and its erroneous predicate that falsifying financial asset prices is the route to prosperity. In fact, it only leads to immense and unstable financial bubbles which eventually crash-----monkey-hammering the purported Goldilocks Economy as they do.
To wit, the Fed's serial financial bubbles on Wall Street are falsely celebrated as arising from a booming main street economy. In fact, they are an economic dagger that bleeds it of investment and cash and exposes it to "restructuring" mayhem from the C-suites when the egregious inflation of share prices and stock option values finally gets crushed by another financial meltdown."

Larry Kudlow, December, 2007 "There’s no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen. At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). Goldilocks is alive and well. The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come. Yes, it’s still the greatest story never told.......In fact, we are about to enter the seventh consecutive year of the Bush boom."
Jobs "That said, our more essential point is that the BLS numbers are generated by a trend-cycle statistical model, not an honest-to-goodness body count, or even sample extrapolation, from the actual main street economy"
" After Q4 2007, the US economy shed more than 15 billion labor hours during the next six quarters."
"So by Q1 2009 the household net worth number was down by the tidy sum of $12 trillion or nearly 20%. And it took four years of madcap money printing at the Fed to reflate housing and the stock markets sufficiently to regain the Q3 2007 level"
"In a word, Larry Kudlow can be counted upon to reassure the Donald that a boom is just around the corner, and that the nation's skyrocketing budget deficits are nothing to worry about."
"That's when the rock of $1.2 trillion in new government borrowing smashes into the hard place of the Fed's $600 billion annual bond dumping program."
Contra Corner » Goldilocks, R. I. P. (Part 2)

Chart of the federal solvency ratio. The tipping point of the ratio.
"They were correct to focus on the relationship of interest expense to revenue. Historical experience in various countries has shown that when this ratio reaches 30%, hyperinflation follows and often as quickly as six to twelve months. Thus, 30% can be seen as a critical “Tipping Point”, which when exceeded leads to hyperinflation."
“Bankruptcy 1995” Revisited

Need to break this up.
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Old 03-18-2018, 06:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Questions on GDP

Gross Domestic Product has been a VERY slippery number. Advertising is counted but produces nothing.
Study: Ad Industry Accounted for 19 Percent of U.S. GDP in 2014 – Adweek
Sales of financial instruments and stocks are not counted. Un-reported legal business is not counted and, is 2/3 of the underground economy. Illegal underground business makes up the other 1/3 of the underground economy.
Illegal drugs make up a huge part of the underground economy.

"John Maynard Keynes made a plea for more detailed figures on Britain’s capacity to make guns, tanks and aeroplanes. He went on to establish the modern definition of GDP as the sum of private consumption and investment and government spending (with account taken for foreign trade). Kuznets had treated government spending as a cost to the private sector, but Keynes saw that if wartime procurement by the state was not treated as demand, GDP would fall even as the economy grew."

" In a famous speech in March 1968, Robert Kennedy took aim at what he saw as idolatrous respect for GDP, which measures advertising and jails but does not capture “the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages”.

"The underlying mistake in the construction of GDP is to confuse accounting with economics. " "GDP really is the cruellest trick played on society. It poses as the yardstick for our collective prospects, but it is a statistical imposter. It is a feint to distract us from what it really is used for, and that is to provide funds for its creator and manager. Yes, the state, wittingly or unwittingly, uses GDP to raise money for itself."
"Not only that, but the extra money injected into the economy increases, other things being equal, the money-total of GDP."

" It the state issues a further ten monetary units, that can be added to the consumers’ total income, less the sums that go into the B2B chain (which is only captured in GO), less the sums that go into financial and other activities excluded from GDP, and less any increase in savings. "
"Let us look in more detail at where this extra money goes, in order to assess the tax benefits to the state, starting with all those intermediate business activities in the B2B chain. This, broadly speaking, is the difference between GO and GDP. It absorbs government spending on the infrastructure and maintenance of government property by non-government entities, as well as defence spending. In theory, all of the government’s supplies of goods and services from the private sector are provided within the B2B chain, with only the salaries of the suppliers’ employees, net of income and employment taxes, recorded as consumer spending in GDP."

"Employees in the whole B2B chain, including myriad subcontractors, have income tax deducted from their salaries. They spend most, if not all of their salaries on goods and services, yielding sales taxes. "
"If the government stops increasing the quantity of base money, the first thing that happens is the commercial banks begin to become overstretched, because all that B2B stuff and consumer borrowing continues, rather like the cartoon coyote unaware it’s just run over the cliff. "
"The extra money the state generates by currency debasement and the associated extra tax gained disappear as well. It is the nature of things that governments get used to spending ever-increasing amounts,"
"For this reason, it is impossible to remove the monetary stimulus of an ever-increasing, ever-accelerating quantity of base money without adverse consequences for the sham statistic of GDP. "

Last edited by Danny B; 03-18-2018 at 06:04 PM. Reason: missing link
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Old 03-18-2018, 06:43 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The FED and the S-400

Armstrong forecast in 1985 that there would be a huge change in the confidence model on 2015.75 On that very day, Russia proved in Syria that it could jam and block American offensive weapons. This has caused various States to see Pox Americana as less than invincible. Later, the Russians deployed long-range cruise missiles that demonstrated anti-ballistic-missile systems to be obsolete. Moving on, Russia followed up on the very successful S-300 missile system with the S-400. The S-300 could arguably take out all naval assets. The S-400 kills planes.
Many States are buying the S-400. One could argue that they want protection from CENTCOM, the enforcement arm of the FED.

Pox Americana can only protest these purchases. It wouldn't look good if they gave their justification for protesting.
"Russian S-400 talks with China, Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and any other country."
Nato's second biggest army just bought nearly £2bn of weapons from Russia
Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte left for Russia Monday to seek advanced weapons, specifically precision armaments.
Rosoboronexport, the Russian state-owned military company accounting for about 85% of all exports, alone sold military equipment to about 70 countries

Duterte has sinned twice, "Having encountered difficulties procuring weapons from the U.S. due to disagreements over his shoot-to-kill drug war" He's trying to block CIA drug cartels from destroying his people.
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Old 03-19-2018, 03:12 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Weakening bonds,,, insane P/E,,, burn down the economy with corruption

Where to start? Is Armstrong correct about the bond markets because, that is where they are going? Are the bond markets going "there" because Armstrong has predicted it? Just the same, the bond markets are not looking so good. Here is a quick tutorial on the bond market.
"Bid-to-cover ratios typically exceed 2.0, especially for shorter-term securities."
If the bid-to-cover ratio isn't very high, investors can demand more interest. $230 trillion of hot money floating around has insured that bonds get a healthy bid-to-cover ration.

"in credit boom times - get orders for three or four times as many bonds as are for sale, at the beginning of the week order books were barely two times covered. " "fundamentals are starting to shift with the Fed expected to lift rates three (or more) times this year, retail sales falling for third straight month, amid a near contraction in consumer credit growth." "sales volume for new investment-grade corporate debt is at its lowest level so far this year"
Corporate bonds must always yield more than treasuries to make sales.
International capital is flowing into equities but, not so much into corporate bonds.

What about sovereign bonds? "Astoundingly, despite the lowest global interest rate environment in 5,000 years of recorded history, Brazil and Greece are paying over 30% of all tax revenues to service their debts. India, Japan, and Ireland are paying over 20%, and Italy, Portugal, and France are paying over 15%."
"Japan, for example, is paying nearly 24% of its tax revenues to service its debt, despite only paying an effective interest rate of 1%! Even a modest normalization of interest rates from 1% to 4% would consume 100% of current Japanese tax revenues."
Sovereign Debt Crisis - Interest Expenses Are Already Consuming Large Portions of Tax Revenue - The Sounding Line
You can see why sovereign bond debt is not attractive.

You can see why the quantity of money theory is bogus. We don't have hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is brought on by a change / lack of confidence. Will we get hyperinflation when sovereign debt crashes?

Stockman is still hammering on how over-valued the stock market is, relative to earnings. Apparently, equities can go up ,,,even without earnings. The hot money doesn't want bonds so, stocks are a haven.
"That is to say, the next recession is embedded in the stock charts because they are the Bubble tracker in plain sight. And here is the leading indicator at the present moment----the utterly lunatic trading metrics for Amazon (AMZN).

As the current bubble metastized after the immediate post-recession rebound in the stock market, the momo crowd piled into AMZN because the "price action" was just plain awesome. Between the March 2009 bottom and January 2017, the stock soared from $65 to $750 per share or by nearly 1100%. And it did so without any regard for AMZN's profitless prosperity---perhaps signified by its 170X PE multiple at the end of 2016."
"Since the rules of arithmetic apparently have not yet been "disrupted", AMZN's implied multiple on operating free cash flow has erupted from an already frisky 39X to a completely absurd 120X."

"When you set aside AWS' sales and operating income during 2017, Amazon's e-Commerce business generated $160 billion of sales, but posted operating income of negative $200 million.

That's right. The monster of the retail midway posted no profit whatsoever last year!

And it's getting worse. During 2016 the e-Commerce business posted $1.1 billion of operating income on $124 billion of sales; and the year before that (2015) operating income was $2.6 billion on e-Commerce sales of $99 billion.

Stated differently, incremental annual sales of $61 billion over the past three years resulted in a $2.8 billion reduction in operating profit."
" An index of 10 tech growth shares pushed its advance to 23 percent so far this year, giving the group an annualized return since early 2016 of 67 percent. That frenzied pace tops the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 66 percent return in the final two years of the dot-com bubble."
"And there you have it----massive, nearly parabolic PE expansion in what will soon be the longest business cycle expansion in recorded history. That's the real flashing red indicator that tells you the third bubble crash of this century is nigh, and the recession to follow is already baked into the cake."
Contra Corner » Goldilocks, R. I. P. (Part 3)
John Hussman is widely read. He has shown very clearly that the stock market can't expect to have any earnings for at least the next 10 years. All this hot money pouring in is from investors who are only trying to protect their capital. Stockman may be right about the absurd P/E but, that doesn't mean that investors will run away.

Europe has about $1.2 trillion in non-performing-loans. This will eventually bring down the banking system because they just aren't profitable. Their solution,,, pretend that they don't exist and, lengthen the terms. This is excruciatingly stupid because the interest burden still grows.
"After almost 10 years of Quantitative Easing to help banks, nothing has been achieved." "The Quantitative Easing has simply kept governments on life-support while failing to stimulate the economy. Mario Draghi moved to negative interest rates in an effort for force people to spend. Instead, the bought safes and withdrew cash from the banks."

TAE, "I’m sorry that this generation burned down the factory, then retreated to the mansion, sold off and burned all the furniture there too, then ran up the credit card with cocaine and heroin parties while yelling “I’m a rock star! I’m a Contender!”, but they did. Now there are only bad decisions, like the ones real adults have. "
"How do you prepare for an Argentina-like collapse and/or up to civil war we are so close to? People who have lived through it say, “you can’t.” If the whole country is mad, which it is, there is nowhere to turn for sense or even allies, to say nothing of dry goods. Co-Americans are now so immoral, so self-serving, so rapacious, so badly thinking, so ill-positioned and ill-prepared that they themselves are the largest single liability, to me, but mostly to themselves. Without basic morality — you know, like do your job, don’t lie about everyone around you, don’t sleep with other people and/or kids at the local high school — there is no “community”

"Only Morality can fix it, where the nation cries out to God and says, “we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the return of justice and order, even if it means paying for my own crimes.”
"Adams said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” Benjamin Franklin said, “only a virtuous people are capable of freedom.”

Armstrong, "The collapse in the rule of law is so vital for sustaining the economy that it is often overlooked."
GOOD article on corruption, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...beyond-belief/
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Old 03-20-2018, 04:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Mixed headlines

Too many things are up in the air to get a clear picture. But, even an unclear picture is pretty bad.
3/20 U.S. expected to impose up to $60 billion in China tariffs by Friday – Reuters They were given most favored nation trading status. This will undo a portion of that.
3/20 Stock market meltdown has to do with a lot more than just Facebook – CNBC The darling tech stocks are NOT looking well.
3/19 U.S. bank derivatives books largest since rescue of Bear Stearns – GATA The banks believe that they have off-loaded risk by selling derivatives. It didn't work last time.

So, why is Facebook doing so badly? Did the word get out?
Snowden - Facebook Is A Surveillance Company Rebranded As 'Social Media'
3/19 65% of Americans save little—half could struggle in retirement – CNBC Not true,, they will die.
3/20 Use fiscal policy, not the Fed, to fight the next slump – Bloomberg To CLARIFY, CUT everything.that the State supports.
3/20 National debt is growing 36% faster than the US economy – Sovereign Man

Very curious. Here are 2 vids that might shed a light on this.
3/19 Tech stocks flash warning sign similar to before the dot-com bubble popped – CNBC NO PROBLEM. Put some black electrical tape over the warning light.
3/19 Canadian household debt hits record $1.8 trillion – Financial Post Canada is a peripheral economy. It is far more likely to hyper-inflate than America.
3/20 ECB policy on path to normalisation amid higher inflation – Reuters The ECB has pumped in about $2.5 trillion into markets. Yes, there is inflation in the upper loop. Shut off the bond spigot and you will see deflation that rips Europe apart. Draghi prays every night that normalization will hold off just a bit longer.
3/19 74% of Americans believe the “deep state” is running the country – Zero Hedge

3/18 Russian hackers attacking U.S. power grid and aviation – Bloomberg You have been forewarned. When a solar storm takes out the grid, be sure to blame Russia.
Minsky writes about the 2-price system of the economy. I just refer to the upper and lower loop.

Humor https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...n_garrison.jpg
The State and the CBs definitely don't want capital to flow into something that they don't control. Here is a history of the suppression of the price of gold.
There is about $1.6 trillion in U.S. currency in circulation. 60% of that is held outside the country. A freeze in the credit markets would make that paper money quite scarce. The State does not want you to have wealth stored in anything that they can't control and grab. If you're Canadian, get some American cash.
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Old 03-20-2018, 03:21 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Which way Russiagate?,,. Collapse of something or other

Kunstler writes about the criminal crescendo created during the final months of the Obummer presidency. As Trump got more popular, the criminals got more desperate and blatant. How will this mountain of criminal actions be treated?
"I suspect there are basically two routes through this mess. One is that the misdeeds of FBI officers, Department of Justice lawyers, and Intel agency executives get adjudicated by normal means, namely, grand juries and courts. That would have the salutary effect of cleansing government agencies and shoring up what’s left of their credibility at a time when faith in institutions hangs in the balance.

The second route would be for the authorities to ignore any formal response to an evermore self-evident trail of crimes, and to allow all that political energy to be funnelled into manufactured hysteria and eventually a phony provocation of war with Russia. Personally, I’d rather see the US government clean house than blow up the world over an engineered hallucination."
If You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It - Kunstler
Will the deep State take down the world in the fight to avoid castration? Dunno.

Armstrong writes about preppers.
"I have recommended keeping a stash of food, but not for the reasons they put out there by the doom & gloom people. The winters are going to keep getting colder. As they do, this will also disrupt the food supply. I have warned that historically, it is Global Cooling that kills off people – not Global Warming. Additionally, as political unrest rises, there will also be a disruption in the food supply. "
"There is simply a cycle where we all come together to form great societies, the ruling class becomes greedy, and then the cycle turns we migrate back to suburbia."
"The political change we face is the collapse of socialism. Of some people will immediately disagree and say it is capitalism. Sorry, pensions are part of socialism – not capitalism. That DOES NOT mean the socialists go down without a fight. "

Armstrong sees a socialist under every rock. He laments the collection of taxes. He makes no mention of the enormous riches that are channelled to the powerful corporations from these taxes. He makes no mention of crony capitalism that is just socialism for the rich. Socialism for the rich is now costing 10 times what socialism to the poor costs. $1.5 trillion vs $15 trillion. He makes no mention of the horrendous cost of wars that are primarily initiated by the bankers. He laments the public pension system. He makes no mention of the fact that the banks take our money and front-run everything that we buy. We can't save enough for retirement. 50% of the cost of everything that you buy is for finance.

Naturally, he is a fan of Any Rand. "Despite arguing that government benefits constitute an immoral redistribution of wealth, Ayn Rand received Social Security payouts later in life."
Like Ayn Rand, Armstrong sees everything in black & white. Private enterprise is too cost conscious to do R&D in many areas. DARPA and the space program have created enormous spin-offs

Pure capitalism is a predatory system when there is no State regulation. Here is a graph of interest rates. https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...Rates-2012.jpg
Interest rates reflect risk. As the world becomes more stable, risk goes down. Everyone benefits from stability,,, except the bankers. They are currently trying to get a big war going to get the money rolling in. The jackals and hyenas of the world thrive on chaos.

Xi is in for life.
Putin has another term.
Trump will probably get a second term because the unfolding charges will taint the dems for the next 1000 years.
Celente states that the bankers are mafioso in suits.
These 3 leaders are NOT looking for war. The unravelling after WW II in Europe brought economic integration. Could you imagine England invading France? It is possible that these 3 leaders can bring enough economic integration to the world to make war a thing of the past.

Armstrong on the rise of interest rates.
I think that he is missing the boat here. The debt burden can NOT grow if the population is shrinking. Armstrong's central model is a model of confidence. What would bring a rise in confidence that would induce people to have more children? The muzzies are working on that problem but, it is the dumb ones that are proliferating the most.

Last edited by Danny B; 03-20-2018 at 04:08 PM. Reason: terrible spelling
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Old Yesterday, 02:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Location: L.A. Ca.
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RE speculators,,, wages

Here is an article on cumulative advantage & winner take all. It fails to mention that capitalism without morality is (financial) law of the jungle.
We had the reserve currency but, it was locked into the gold standard. We could not run a trade imbalance. We had to kill Bretton Woods to pump up credit enough to become a war-monger.

Median home prices, https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...nk66EUSYnca44w
"The median wage rose from $14.15 in 2005 to $17.81 in 2016, a percentage increase of 25.9%.

The median new home price rose from $228,300 in 2005 to $335,400 in 2016, a percentage increase of 46.9%."
There is / was FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE trying to rent out their money in lieu of actually doing something productive. In trying to save the faux economy, the FED tried to save all those people. The hot money flowed into every nook and cranny. I suppose that the FED hoped that the money would remain in the upper loop. It just didn't happen that way. Some of the money flowed into the lower loop. Residential RE was considered a good store of value.

"houses have been turned into popular financial assets for yield and trading — a whopper 37% of all purchases last year were to non-end-users "
"Based on the formations and construction data, rolling oversupply is exactly where is stood at Peak-Bubble "
" Household Formations vs Housing Completions About the Same as Peak Bubble 1.0. If the market was so wildly oversupplied then, why isn’t it now? "
“we need 1.5 million housing starts each year just to keep up with new households being formed”.
It sounds great, but it’s fake news. "
"Bottom line: At peak Bubble 1.0 in 2007 the market was oversupplied by 7.887 MILLION units based on household formations. Today, the market is oversupplied by 7.905 MILLION, as well. "
The article has a great graph showing that people are just not forming new households. They're all living in their patent's basement.

There is a 23.2% gap between the trendline and, what people are actually spending.
The rapidly growing gap between disposable income and, the cost of living.

3/20 Four days to trade wars: can stupidity be avoided? – Mish Can it be embraced?
3/20 Days before selloff, tech hit a milestone not seen since 2000 – Bloomberg
3/20 Ultimate indicator suggests US never financially recovered – Econimica

3/20 Bitcoin is unfolding like the dot-com crash — just 15 times faster – CNBC
3/20 Tech world experiencing a major ‘trust crisis,’ futurist warns – CNBC Probably because of life-to-death surveillance.
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