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Old 02-09-2018, 06:05 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Interest rates and the worst-case scenario

Reverse wealth effect, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Before You "Buy the Dip," Look at This One Chart
2/09 Volatility shock wave has wiped $5.2 trillion from global markets – MarketWatch
2/09 Asian stocks tumble after US markets sharply sell-off – CNBC
2/09 Junk bond ETFs sink to lowest since 2016 – Bloomberg
2/09 Market tumble wipes out almost $100 billion from world’s richest – Bloomberg

The fear of rising interest rates is spreading, PressTV-Dow Jones crashes again, plunges 1,000 points
2/09 Fund crashes after wrong-way volatility trade – CNBC
2/09 “Worst case scenario” emerging: “selling has shifted” – Zero Hedge

2/08 Dow plummets 1032 points, now down 10% from record – CNBC
2/08 FANG’s $90 billion disaster – Daily Reckoning
2/08 A fundamental change is underway in the financial markets – CNBC

2/08 Everything’s a sell in China after $660 billion equity wipeout – Bloomberg
2/08 Tokyo to investors — don’t panic – Nikkei

2/09 White House to federal agencies: prepare for shutdown – MarketWatch
2/08 Government shutdown deadline looms Thursday – NBC News

2/09 China’s HNA reverses buying binge with $4 billion selling spree – Bloomberg Ah yes, the Chinese need to raise cash.
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Graphs of wages and productivity

Some graphs that tell the story very well.
We're at the bottom, https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-...by-country.png
We're always working harder, http://s3.amazonaws.com/content.thir...jpg?1458578442
Part of the reason for our loss, http://www.industryweek.com/sites/in...ss-Incomes.jpg
The FED can inflate the money supply far faster than we can make gains in wages. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-C...Power+USD2.JPG

We went off the gold standard and this allowed to FED to print up lots of faux money for all the money renters. In 1971, we got a swift kick in the wallet, https://philebersole.files.wordpress...oductivity.png
We "survived" by just borrowing more, https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...al-2017-Q4.png

The more that we were squeezed by monetary inflation, the harder we worked and the more we borrowed. The upper loop is trying to keep the game going. The printing has gone parabolic. It is SUPPOSED to stave off defaults in the lower loop. The real result is; price inflation resulting from the monetary inflation is bringing even more defaults. Diminished consumption caused manufacturing to do even more automation.
The defaults are rising in spite of the efforts at the FED to hold it all together.

2/09 European banks could soon hold bitcoin, admits ECB president – CCN
These feces-for-brains bankers are ALREADY holding SDRs. What happened to the new magic-money, the SDR?
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Old 02-10-2018, 02:36 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The fallout from the rising 10 year note

Mnuchin is at the Treasury. When Powell became head of the FED, the stock market dropped 1175 points. Now, we see more drops. Maybe the FED, PPT and ESF are NOT going to prop things up. There were initial indications that somebody came in and cut the losses in half on the first day. It remains to be seen just how much control Trump, Mnuchin and Powell have over the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
"a background description is given on the USDept Treasury's enormous slush fund in the Exchange Stabilization Fund which has size in the multiple $trillions and which has a function in financial rigging of every major Western market, and whose core might be $3 to $5 trillion worth of Saudi recycled petro surpluses, with primary function being the fabrication of fake USTreasury Bond demand via the Interest Rate Swap derivative machinery during the absent foreign bond demand"
GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"

Everything is based on the 10 year Treasury note.
” If the 10-year yield gets above the 2013 high of 3.04%, a bullish long-term “double bottom” reversal pattern would be completed, opening the door for an eventual rise toward the 4.75% area."
"When the yield bumped up against the downtrend line before, as happened in 1987, 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2007, bad things happened on Wall Street."

"There's a not-so-quiet rebellion going on in the bond market, and it threatens to take 10-year yields above 3 percent much faster than expected just a few weeks ago."
2/09 Asia’s rich must exit crowded trades, cut leverage – WaPo That might cause a downturn. What if China does not want a downturn?
2/09 China’s central bank releases nearly 2trln yuan in temporary liquidity – CNBC Right,,, temporary. They have never been able to withdraw liquidity.
2/09 Moody’s threatens to downgrade US debt – ETF Daily News That won't make them very popular in the District of corruption.
2/09 Stock and bond investors paying for Fed’s dangerous experiment – Zero Hedge The FED did it ALL for them and now, it has run it's course.

Venezuela has a negative feedback loop in oil production, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ial-insolvency
The Venezuelans are all trying to leave, https://sputniknews.com/latam/201802...rol-venezuela/
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Old 02-11-2018, 04:17 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Impossible decision,,, short version

I hurt my eye and can't stand light,,, especially looking at the screen.
Here are a few links.

Fed will have to choose between rates and stocks, Sprott says | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee


"But that truth means the system as managed by the political elite is dysfunctional. Yet the elite refuse to yield any power."

1517, removing the financial remora, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ion-v-banking/

Almost every bit of the money supply is electronic debt backed by nothing. Paper money is a rarity. The NSA created the blockchain and bitcoin. They are collapsing because they can be stolen too easily and now, the energy cost is far too high.
The SDR didn't fly because it is a piece of garbage... unlimited creation. Notice that nobody steals SDRs.
BTC was an attempt to acclimate us to non-CB electronic money.. That lump of garbage just won’t fly.

The FED is about to crash and, they are making one last desperate attempt. to get us out of the crashing dollar and, INTO their latest creation.
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:49 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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slipping into democracy/insolvency

ALL GOV is socialist because all GOVT. does redistribution. All democracies eventually crash because the people learn that they can vote the whole pie for themselves. All politicians buy votes with promises. They eventually promise more than the taxpayer can afford. We were originally given a republic. The 17th amendment chipped away at that. When women were given the vote, the results became more touchy-feely and less businesslike. Women are a lot more likely to live in a wishful dream world.

We lost the republic and became a democracy. Politicians bought election money with promises to the rich,,, and then bought votes with promises to the poor. Supporting the rich costs 10 times what it costs to support the poor. The State told the people, "don't worry about old age and infirmity, we will take care of you." "Don't worry that you have no skills and are unemployable. we will give you a job."

Because of the great wealth arising from the post WW II economy, America was able to make good on those promises. That has all ended and the printing press is all that is keeping things going. Trump plans to spend $trillions on infrastructure. The FED plans to stop monetizing Treasury paper.
No politician has had the balls to take away all the perks that earlier politicians have passed out.
2/13 Trump wants giant cuts to housing, food stamps and health care – WaPo
I'm guessing that Trump will demand that GOV shut down all the benefits because the FED will no longer monetize Treasury paper. That should light a fire under the FED.
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Old 02-14-2018, 02:12 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Stpckman,,,, the wind & the unwind,,,

My eye is still giving me trouble and the posts will be short. You can skip a lot of reading by just looking at what David Stockman wrote. The FED seems to think that the unwind is controllable.

QT is the "unwind". The Treasury bond market is the "wind".
"Less than two weeks ago, the United States Department of Treasury very quietly released its own internal projections for the federal government’s budget deficits over the next several years.

And the numbers are pretty gruesome.

In order to plug the gaps from its soaring deficits, the Treasury Department expects to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year.

Then nearly $1.1 trillion next fiscal year.
And up to $1.3 trillion the year after that.

This means that the national debt will exceed $25 trillion by September 30, 2020.

Remember, this isn’t some wild conspiracy theory. These are official government projections published by the United States Department of Treasury.

This story alone is monumental– not only does the US owe, by far, the greatest amount of debt ever accumulated by a single nation in human history, but $25 trillion is larger than the debts of every other nation in the world combined."
2/13 China January new loans surge to record 2.9trln yuan – Reuters Ah yes, it requires huge new loans to roll over the old loans.
2/12 Chinese Central Bank governor warns again of financial crisis risk – Smaulgld Like Sleeping Beauty, he has finally awoken.

2/13 Stock market’s massive moves not seen since Great Recession – SafeHaven
2/13 These bonds should make ECB hawks apoplectic with rage – Bloomberg

Wait til this really gets rolling. "Apoplectic" will be a watchword.

Stockman, "That get's us to the market's misplaced confidence that after a moderate-sized hissy fit on Wall Street, the Fed and other fellow-traveling central banks will back-off from normalization and QT. The fact that the head of the New York Fed and Goldman plenipotentiary at the central bank, Bill Dudley, pointedly referred to last week's two-day $4 trillion stock plunge as "small potatoes" is perhaps a hint of things to come."

Contra Corner » Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 1: Last Week Wasn’t An Error

Armstrong writes about contagion in counter-party risk.
"Chinese Government that focuses on connectivity and cooperation between Eurasian countries, primarily the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the ocean-going Maritime Silk Road (MSR). "
As opposed to the American business plan of blowing up everybody in sight to steal their resources.
The default cascade will freeze up all credit. The Russians don't intend to get caught with their pants down.
https://www.rt.com/business/418665-r...dy-shut-swiftI suppose that this implies a crash of the BIS.. VERY interesting
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Old 02-15-2018, 05:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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When will the bond market wahe up?

2/14 January retail sales post biggest decline in 11 months – CNBC
2/14 Total US household debt soars to record above $13 trillion – CNBC

Looks like $13 trillion just isn't enough to keep things rolling.
2/15 Dutch plan to build giant solar power farm – SBS News
2/14 First Solar beats gas with solar and batteries – Greentech Media

Wait, what about my oil shares?
2/14 Draghi faces an impossible task to weaken the euro – CNBC The currency war seems to be on the front burner now.
Currency war: Trump’s games pose threat to European economy – Spiegel

2/15 US economy is an ‘accident waiting to happen’ – CNBC There was nothing accidental about the FED inflation.
2/15 The next commodities supercycle is getting started – Casey Research Not on your life.
2/15 Shorts in SPDR junk bond ETF surge to highest level since 2010 – Bloomberg Junk bonds are crashing fast. The shorts smell blood.
2/14 Big reset looms for corporate credit market – Wolf Street Yes, from the fat and into the fire.
2/14 U.S. public debt surges by $175 billion in one day – SRSrocco Report
SO, why didn't I get a check fro $503?

"Deficits will probably reach $1 trillion in the current or next fiscal year, almost double what the Congressional Budget Office had projected less than a year ago for 2018."
“Never in modern times,” says analyst Sven Henrich, “have we seen tax cuts being implemented and spending increased with debt to GDP north of 100%.”

"Global Debt Crisis II Cometh

– Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns
– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn
– Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years
– US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014
– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years
– UK consumer debt hit £200b, highest level in 30 years, 25% of households behind on repayments"
"When you look at the figures you realise there is an air of inevitability of what is around the corner. If the last week has taught us anything, it is that markets are unprepared for the fallout that is destined to come after a decade of easy monetary policies.

Global debt is more than three times the size of the global economy, the highest it has ever been"
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Old Yesterday, 02:26 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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still smooth sailing

Well, this is all getting repetitious. The debt mountain grows a bit higher.
"2) Unpaid bills will skyrocket. Illinois currently has nearly $12 billion in unpaid bills, which, under the current impasse, are expected to total nearly $25 billion by early 2019."
Illinois' Fiscal Crisis Impacts Business
The default rate grows higher, “Non-housing balances, which have been increasing steadily for nearly six years overall, saw a $58 billion increase in the fourth quarter. Auto loans grew by $8 billion and credit card balances increased by $26 billion, while student loans saw a $21 billion increase”. “As of December 31, 4.7 percent of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. Of the $619 billion of debt that is delinquent, $406 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”).

"Trump’s plan sees a 2019 deficit of $984 billion, though White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney admits $1.2 trillion is more plausible "

So, does anybody have a clue,,,, a slight niggling worry?
Edging towards the exits,
2/15 Bond fund hit by biggest outflow in 15-year history – Bloomberg
2/15 Trump supports 25 cent federal gas tax hike – Zero Hedge Just what we need.
2/15 Trump wants to impose a ‘reciprocal tax’ on trade partners – CNBC That was tried with the Smoot-Hawley act and, it crashed international trade.
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Old Yesterday, 04:13 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Petro dollar shifts,,, evaporating israel

Saudi Arabia was the backbone of the petro-dollar scheme. Jim Willie claims that the anglo-americans stole both the Saudi gold AND the Saudi treasury bonds. Who knows?
Saudi/Russia-Led Oil Supergroup In The Making
It appears that the Sauds have switched horses.
America is producing LOTS of light crude oil that our refineries can NOT refine. We send it out to other States with different refineries.

Venezuela has the largest reserves in the world but, it is very heavy crude that must be mixed with light crude. Venezuela is too broke to buy light Nigerian crude so, they can't sell their heavy stuff. 2 million people have left Venezuela and the GOV is now refusing to produce passports... to keep more people from leaving.
"PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-oil company, is losing workers by the thousands, with as many as 10,000 leaving the company in just one week of January, media report, citing protests against low wages and the growing risk of accidents due to lack of equipment maintenance. The situation, according to Univision, has escalated to such an extent that PDVSA’s board of directors has stopped accepting letters of resignation."

Israel is trying to steal the oil & gas from both Syria and Lebanon. The Syrians have shifted strategies.
The Chinese will participate in the oil industry in Lebanon.
51 firms win out for oil exploration contracts in Lebanon - Xinhua | English.news.cn
Netanyahooo said that America is an unreliable partner and, israel is going to look for a new match with Russia. Keep in mind that Putin personally threw Netanyahoooo out of the Kremlin a few years ago. Netanyahoooo threatened Puitn and told him that Russia must get out and, stay out of Syria. Putin told him that he could make isreal a sheet of glass in 24 hours.

China and Russia are teaming up with the world's oil producers to control supply. This was previously impossible because the U.S. military would blow up any State or person who tried to break the petro-dollar standard. American defense contractors worked to pad their bills and didn't care about the quality of their products. The F-35 is the perfect example. The Russian jamming systems and latest plane & missile systems are far superior. The petro-dollar has been defeated by shoddy military weapons contractors. Not to mention, dumbing down our schools to where America fell way down in international competition.

Tel Aviv was/is the Eastern garrison for pox Americana. Netanyahoooo has been totally brutal and alienated Europe. He has been totally intransigent and alienated the whole rest of the world. Mainstream israelies will suffer for his brutality.
The Eastern alliances are locking up oil production outside the control of pox Americana. The unfolding financial collapse will be especially hard on our Eastern garrison.

the Republicans were always the deficit hawks who refused to fund pork barrel programs. They have don a complete about-face on the subject.
It makes you wonder just what inspired such total fear in the entire legislature.
2/16 It’s not China that is dumping US Treasurys, it’s Japan – Zero Hedge Japan got reamed badly after the war. They were required to roll over ALL of their profits into U.S. treasuries.
2/16 JP Morgan slashes GDP estimate to 2.5% – CNBC Keep in mind that; when America prints a new dollar, it is added on as part of the GDP. When it spends the same dollar, it is added on again to the gdp.
2/16 Water produced by fuel cell car could be stored and used to drink – Ind HOLD on a minute. That water is the primary greenhouse gas.

"In truth, however, the evil genius behind the catastrophic error of Camp David was Milton Friedman, and his errand boy in Nixon's cabinet, George Schultz. The two were apostles of the free market when it came to commodities, wages, rents, goods, services and most anything else including gambling, prostitution and drugs. But not money.

Friedman had been dead wrong about the Fed's culpability for the Great Depression of 1930-1933, and from that error he erected a theory of state control of money that eventually evolved into today's baleful regime of Keynesian central banking."
"The problem with this Friedmanite monetary postulate was two-fold: It was wrong in theory and impossible in practice!

Thus, there is no possible fixed rule of monetary growth."
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Old Today, 01:21 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Forget the promises.

Charles Huge Smith writes about all the promises that won't be kept.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Our Approaching Winter of Discontent
"Cut $2 trillion in revenue, add $2 trillion in spending, and you create a $4 trillion dollar gap in the budget. Of course, that is $4 Trillion in addition to the current run rate in spending which continues the current acceleration of the “debt problem.”

" The time to implement austerity measures is when the economy is running a budget surplus and is close to full employment."
2/16 Cracks appear in credit funds as investors head for the exit – Bloomberg
2/16 Central banks will let the next crash happen – Alt Market
2/16 “Financial stress” spikes – Wolf Street
2/16 Last time Americans confident of “retiring comfortably”, stocks crashed – Zero Hedge
2/16 As debt ceiling lifts, flood of T-bills set to jack up rates – Bloomberg

The Post office wants a bailout, https://www.fedsmith.com/2018/02/13/...unded-bailout/
Fannie May wants a bailout, https://sputniknews.com/us/201802151...osses-bailout/

Last edited by Danny B; Today at 01:25 AM. Reason: Premature posting
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