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Old 11-17-2017, 06:09 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Ray Dalio,,, bumps in the road

Ray Dalio is the guy who put a super computer program in charge of his bond business. His Bio;
"As said in his book, Principles, Mr. Dalio chose to become a lifelong student of investments, with the focus being that the past repeats itself, so by studying history using the most advanced computer algorithms on the planet, he can avoid making costly mistakes on behalf of his clients.
That is how Ray Dalio grew from a one-man show in 1982 to over 1,500 employees 35 years later, overseeing more than $160 billion worth of client funds.

His most conservative portfolios returned 9.88% annually for the last 40 years, which would turn $50,000 into $2,166,287.
Launched in 1991, his Pure Alpha Strategy, available only to the world's most well-connected sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, has returned 21% per year.
In a matter of only 2 quarters, Bridgewater has accumulated 3.894 million shares of GLD, which are worth $473M today and 11.3 million IAU shares, which are worth $140M today. Put together, Bridgewater is betting $613M of clients' money that gold will perform well, and we know the benchmark is 21%,
Dalio said that "Buffett is making a huge mistake" and that "If you don't own gold, you know neither history, nor economics."
CRITICAL: Gold Shrugging Off Manipulation!

The thing to keep in mind is; The banks and CBs want all capital flows to move to something that they control. First choice would be bank stocks and bank bonds. Second would be corporate debt and stocks. Far down on the list is crypto currency. The State can grab hold of cryptos at any time. Dalio bought GLD but, GLD only has a fraction of the gold that it appears to be representing. Collectively, the paper-gold markets sell every ounce about 135 times. We'll see how that works out.

The yield curve is the flattest it has been since 2007.
The S&P 500 hasn’t closed lower by 0.5% or more for 50 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 1968.
The S&P 500 hasn’t finished red three days in a row for more than three months, the longest streak in seven years.
The S&P 500 hasn’t corrected 3% from its all-time high for over a year, the longest streak ever.
The average daily change (absolute value) for the S&P 500 in 2017 is only 0.30%, the second smallest range on record behind 1964.

"With both commodities and Chinese stocks suffering sharp overnight drops, it is hardly surprising that today trading desks have quietly been sending out boxes full of xanax their best under-25 clients"
"One such analysis, clearly geared to the Ritalin generation complete with 3 second attention spans, comes from Deutsche Bank which in a few hundred words seeks to explain the key risks threatening the world's most complex centrally-planned economy, and ground zero of the next financial crash."
The Complete Idiot's Guide To The Biggest Risks In China | Zero Hedge

Goldman: Automated Trucks To Cost 300k Jobs Per Year
Amazon Says It's "Almost Ready" To Get 1,000s Of Grocery Store Cashiers Fired

Sooner or later, this kind of stuff will be recognised as a problem.
"In psychology, this is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, or the cognitive bias in which individuals with low ability perceive themselves as having high ability.

Dunning and Kruger found that after gaining a small amount of knowledge in a particular domain, an individual’s confidence soared. "

"QE in my judgement was like anaesthesia, effective only at numbing the pain of a world gone so terribly awry. Or alcohol, fomenting an international stupor so as to normalize people to a world so unlike what it used to be; to give, at least, some small hope for the future where more and more hopelessness invaded. "
THE LOST DECADE, or introducing EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY | Alhambra Investments

11/17 “none of the problems from the financial crisis have been solved” – Zero Hedge That's not entirely true. A LOT of bonuses have been handed out.
11/17 Norway’s $1 trillion wealth fund looks to dump oil & gas stocks – Oil Price Norway has all that North Sea oil. Every Norwegian is a millionaire. ///
11/17 The high price of 16 years of failure in Afghanistan – WhoWhatWhy
Well, as killary said "it was worth it" The bankers raked in 9,000 TONS of opium. Whadayou mean failure?

11/16 Monsanto, U.S. farm groups sue California over glycophosphate warnings – Reuters
This is VERY good news. Just imagine what will come out in discovery and trial.

11/17 Future of cyberwar: ​weaponised ransomware, IoT attacks – Tech Republic
11/17 North Korea getting ready wage a global cyber war – eWeek
So, we'll all have to go out and buy quantum computers.
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Old 11-17-2017, 05:21 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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High-yield retail debt going into mass default

I try to focus on milestones in our progress towards economic shrinkage. I try to condense important info so that you don't have to read reams of confusing and useless information. It is up to you to decide how this affects you,,, what to do about it AND, when to do it.
“When their complex swaps drop 40%, and prime brokers demand more margin, investors will cry ‘It’s not possible!’ But anything is possible.” The prime brokers will hang up and stop them out. "
“If we don’t get some event in the economy or in politics or in somewhere that is going to create more loan volume and better margins for the banks, then yes, they would come crashing down,” Bove said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Loan volume is crashing.
"This current bubble has been based on irrational euphoria that has been fuelled by relentless central bank intervention, but now global central banks are removing the artificial life support in unison. "
This Is What A Pre-Crash Market Looks Like

"We have already shattered the all-time record for store closings in a single year and we still have the rest of November and December to go. Unfortunately, it truly does appear that things will get even worse in 2018, because a tremendous amount of high-yield retail debt is coming due next year. In fact, Bloomberg is reporting that the amount of high-yield retail debt that will mature next year is approximately 19 times larger than the amount that matured this year…"

"Just $100 million of high-yield retail borrowings were set to mature this year, but that will increase to $1.9 billion in 2018, according to Fitch Ratings Inc. And from 2019 to 2025, it will balloon to an annual average of almost $5 billion."
"Even worse, this will hit as a record $1 trillion in high-yield debt for all industries comes due over the next five years, according to Moody’s."

Side note, 11/17 Investors are fleeing junk bonds (high yield) in near record numbers – CNBC
"In the past, retailers could always count on the middle class to bail them out, but the middle class is steadily shrinking these days. In fact, at this point one out of every five U.S. households has a net worth of zero or less."
"Total US debt in 1913 was $39 billion. Today it is $70 trillion, up 1,800X. But that only tells part of the story. There were virtually no unfunded liabilities in 1913. Today they are $130 trillion. So adding the $70 trillion debt to the unfunded liabilities gives a total liability of $200 trillion.

In 1913 US debt to GDP was 150%. Today, including unfunded liabilities, the figure becomes almost 1,000%."
Why America?s Retail Apocalypse Could Accelerate Even More In 2018

11/17 What debt crisis in provinces says about governing China – Economist What it says is; HUGE centrally planned economies are not a good idea.
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Old 11-18-2017, 02:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Armstrong's revenge,,,NO unity, no one-world GOV

Armstrong, "The current EU plan envisages blocking account disbursements for five working days and with the authority to extend any suspension to up to 20 days. "
"I recommend that you have 30 days worth of cash on hand. What the authorities do not understand is that if they freeze one bank, a run will unfold on all banks. The public will not believe whatever the government says. Therefore, banks that are not in crisis can be pushed into a crisis by a contagion. That is simply how it all unfolded in 1931-1933. The only way to stop a contagion will be a bank holiday and you have to close them all."
Just imagine trying to operate a business when nobody has any cash.

"I was amazed at how many pension funds were there. They were some of the biggest and we hear that they are listening to you and had shifted into equities. Some were talking at the cocktail party how you have really helped them even selling the strategy to their boards. The ones who were there were from Europe, Japan, and Canada. Do any American pension funds listen to you?"
"It is true, that our biggest clients in pensions are ALL outside the USA. They see the world from an international perspective more so than American firms who still do not understand currency. " "American funds tended not to understand or even consider currency risk"
Armstrong tells investors that bonds are going to crash and, they should be in equities. Keep in mind that equities need customers / consumers and profit to pay dividends. Big oil BORROWED money to pay their dividends.
Armstrong got rodgered good and hard by the crooked N.Y. banks and N.Y. judges. A couple of years ago, Armstrong advised the Chinese banks to go around the primary dealer (big N.Y. banks) and buy treasuries directly from the Treasury. Now, Armstrong is advising the BIG funds to get out of bonds because they are going to crash.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.

"Because in an effort to achieve what they sometimes call the "global economic reset," or the "new world order," a more publicly accepted centralized global economy and monetary framework is paramount. And, this means the eventual implementation of a single world currency and a single global economic and political authority above and beyond the dollar system."
So, is this new political authority going to be American? British? Chinese? Russian? Who is going to control the issuance and expansion / flexibility of this world currency? Since "limited" globalism has proved to be such a disaster, how would full globalism be implemented so that it didn't make things much worse?
India is rushing the construction of new tunnels / roads to sensitive areas in the India/Chinese border. China is planning to build a 1,000 mile pipeline to bring "Indian" water to parched areas of China.
There are a couple of wars going on now over oil/gas pipelines. What happens if China wants a pipeline that the new-world GOV doesn't approve of?
With rising automation, EVERY State is going to try to have advantages and keep IT'S people employed.
The article is interesting BUT, incorrect. The dollar is the reserve currency because it is so widely accepted,,, because the American bond market has such a long-term history of stability. Oil only accounts for a small fraction of dollar-denominated trade.
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Old Today, 05:40 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Latest news

It's getting more and more difficult to condense the financial news.
As I posted, Ray Dalio invested heavily into paper gold. XAU tracks the price of gold even if they don't hold much at all. It is expected that; when the gold market crashes, they will just settle out in cash. If it works out that way, he stands to gain a lot. They claim that they hold a few hundred tons.
"One of the flash crashes this year was precipitated by the instantaneous sale of gold futures contracts equal in underlying amount to 60 tons of physical gold. The largest bullion banks in the world could not source 60 tons of physical gold if they had months to do it."
Armstrong goes on and on about hedging for currency risks.
FOFOA is equally convincing that the FOREX market will just disappear when all trade settlement is done in gold. Wait and see.

Deflation comes in many flavors from many different sources. E-trade is killing almost everything in sight.
John Malone Describes Amazon As "Death Star" Moving "In Striking Range Of Every Industry On The Planet" | Zero Hedge
Everybody wants a good deal, Amazon-opoly: Jeff Bezos May Be About To Control $53 Billion In Federal Government Spending | Zero Hedge
Every job eliminated by automation is just one less consumer.

"The great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the credit market,”
The FED states that it ended QE years ago. The stock market keeps getting huge infusions of cash. U.S. GOV just created / spent about $1/2 trillion in one month. If QE ended, where is the money coming from. FED GOV is playing a game where they don't do QE and they are in much better shape that the PBOC, ECB and BOJ. What about our $1.5 B a day trade deficit? With the widespread adoption of the U.S. dollar for trade settlement, the importance of dollar-denominated trade in oil has greatly diminished. Pox Americana must convince the world that it's dollar is very reliable and valuable. It is hoping that the dollar will be seen as a safe haven.
China has created more new debt than the U.S. (reports), Japan and the ECB all put together. The FED is hard at work to maintain the illusion of responsibility and stability.

Hindenburg Omen and the Titanic Syndrome. https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...ancial-crisis/
Consumption, https://mises.org/wire/were-living-a...al-consumption
BTC news;
11/19 The world’s biggest wealth manager won’t touch bitcoin – Bloomberg
11/19 Bitcoin, bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold and now bitcoin platinum – Oracle Times
11/18 Tulips, railways and why we don’t take bitcoin – 24hGold
11/18 Bitcoin investors plan to “HODL” until price hits $196,000 – Coin Telegraph

11/18 Saudi ‘corruption’ probe widens – Zero Hedge MbS is playing Whack-a-mole with rich, powerful people.

Stockman, "the GOP should be literally petrified by an horrid fiscal scenario for the coming decade that entails Social Security going bust, another $12 trillion of current policy deficits and a prospective $33 trillion public debt by 2027. And even that presupposes a macro-economic miracle in the interim: Namely, a 207 month stretch from 2009 to 2027 without a recession-----a feat which is twice the longest expansion in recorded history"
"hey have passed a FY 2018 budget resolution which implicitly embraces all of the above fiscal mayhem, and then adds upwards of $2 trillion (so far and counting interest) of incremental deficits to fund an ill-designed tax cut that is inherently an economic dud and political time bomb."

" I will bet you dollars to donuts that central banks and governments will react in ways that are even more unthinkable."
Income vs education, http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona.../171117-12.jpg
"And this at a time when 95 cents out of every dollar collected by the US government goes to either pay a) interest, b) entitlement spending and c) defense. Which do you think goes first?

I don’t think it is interest (hard to make them that much lower). And I doubt it will be entitlements. Which leaves you with defense. And so just like European nations before it, the US will slash defense spending to keep the welfare state alive"
Wait and see on that one. The chosenites need for us to kick off a big expensive war to save their bacon. The welfare State gets the axe.
Tesla, https://seekingalpha.com/article/412...rminal-decline

"In 2000, the subsequent crash was 39%, in 2007 it was 54%. We are now again witnessing just such a gap, with the S&P 500 at record levels. Here’s the graph, with John’s comments: "
Mind the gap ! https://3r8md7174doo44lgpk3kou79-wpe...ebt-111417.jpg
"With a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes, debt is only able to cover about 2/3rds of the difference with a net shortfall of $6,605."
"“Prior to 2009, debt was able to support a rising standard of living..” Less than a decade later, it can’t even maintain the status quo. That’s what you call a breaking point.

To put that in numbers, there’s a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes. In other words, no matter how much people are borrowing, their standard of living is in decline. "
"One consolation: Europe, Japan, China are in the same debt-driven decline that Americans are. We’re all going down together. Or rather, the question is who’s going to go first. That is the only hard call left. America’s a prime candidate."
That P.O.S. Merkel is finally getting the boot (hopefully). That is bringing down the Euro.
The Eurozone was a creation of the zio-fascists. It was set up so that voting did almost nothing. The technocrats were going to run it and everything would be fine. Millions of bureaucrats would retire early with a fine pension. It will eventually go down the toilet and take the Euro currency down with it.
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