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Old 08-16-2017, 05:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 3,050
Scrambling to avoid the great evaporation

The CBs have created enormous mountains of debt masquerading as money / wealth. The holders of this debt can see a mass-default looming. They are trying to exit the bubble before their debt instrument loses value. They have no faith in sovereign debt. They have little faith in corporate debt. They buy shares in companies even though earnings are miserable.
"In June 2007, reported LTM earnings for the S&P 500 was posted at $85 per share. That would mean that earnings have grown at the tepid rate of 2.1% per annum for the last 10-years; and those are nominal dollars.

Take out inflation and share buybacks and thereís essentially no gain at all on a peak-to-peak basis."
"Under a regime of honest money and price discovery, the stock market discounts the future. There is no plausible future from here thatís worth 24 times S&P 500 value or 96 times the Russell 2000."
"Margins on debt has again reached an all-time high of $550 billion. The chart below leaves little doubt as to what comes next. After the 2000 peak, margin debt collapsed by 50% as stocks were violently liquidated to meet margin calls. All this while in 2008 the shrinkage of margin debt was even larger Ė nearly 60%. This time, however, a similar shrinkage would cause a $325 billion decline in margin balances. Thatís a lot of stocks on a fire sale."

All this "wealth" is searching for protection from deflationary forces. In financial circles, there is NO mention of wage deflation. The working class has been struck down by wage deflation. The upper loop is shukin and jivin that productivity must be raised. They lament the loss of profit margins. They cry for more efficiency and "more competitive" wage structures. The non-producer class tries to stay insulated from the problems of the larger producer class.
The wage base crashes and consumption crashes. Huge infusions of credit to unqualified borrowers is seen as the cure. The CBs print boatloads of "money" to compensate for falling wages and falling spending power.
They admit that it doesn't work but, QE and ZIRP are the only tools they have.
The CBs and the private banks are creating tons of pixelated "money". The upper loop of the economy doesnít actually produce any tangible wealth so, it must take tangibles from the lower loop.
The numbers look increasingly bad. Those with money are starting to look away from stocks. Currently, they are looking at cryptocurrencies. Everybody wants to avoid the 'great evaporation".

Last edited by Danny B; 08-17-2017 at 01:39 AM. Reason: spellling
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