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  #2011  
Old 03-22-2017, 02:33 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The fear index,,, rackets in place of commerce,, Kunstler and Saudi

The VIX was the "fear index". Now, the BIS says that the dollar is the new fear index; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eless-bis-says
The latest fear index is the SKEW. A popular stock-market ‘black swan’ gauge is at a record - MarketWatch If the VIX has been forced down, how far above is the SKEW in reality?
Years of ZIRP has given us years of malinvestment. By blocking all loses, the FED has blocked all rationality and people are staring to get worried.

The financial economy just hums along no matter how bad the real economy gets.
"Retailers Are Running Out Of Time": Channel Checks Show 13% Collapse In Traffic | Zero Hedge
Finance used to be 5% of the economy. Now, it is 40% even though actual wealth production is falling. Who knows how long this can continue?

"Trump won by making promises that hell never be able to keep under the current circumstances. The main promise was to restore the standard of living enjoyed in bygone decades by former industrial workers and clerks. His promise was based on a misunderstanding of history: the notion that the industrial organization of daily life was a permanent part of the human condition. You could detect by the early 21st century that this was not so anymore. That was exactly why we tried to replace it with an economy of rackets. When theres nothing left, a lot of people are going to try to get something for nothing, because theres nothing else to do."

"The new financialization was, in effect, setting a matrix of rackets in motion. What had worked as capital management before was allowed to mutate into various forms of swindling and fraud such as the bundling of dishonestly acquired mortgages into giant bonds and then selling them to pension funds desperate for yield, or the orgy of merger and acquisition in health care that turned hospitals into cash registers"
"What remains of the accustomed standard of living in America is supported by wishing and fakery and all that is now coming to a climax as we steam full speed ahead into Murphys law: if something can go wrong, it will."
"What can go wrong awaits in markets, banks, currencies, and the immense dark pools of counterparty obligations that amount to black holes where notions of value are sucked out of the universe."
Kunstler, of course. Full Speed Ahead for Murphy's Law - KUNSTLER

The Central Banks are trying to achieve some kind of equilibrium. This idea can no longer work, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...ilibrium-video
Far too many people have been displaced from the labor market for the economy to function on debt-money from private banks. https://www.sovereignmoney.eu/

Saudi Arabia is destined to go to the trash heap, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...hale-one-chart
Deutsche bank is back in the news; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...evenue-warning
"The history of modern monetary and banking arrangements and governments complete failure to manage society begs for meaningful reform. However, the likelihood of such reform is zero without the Crash & Burn"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...or-capitalism/
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  #2012  
Old 03-22-2017, 03:15 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Jim Willie and the latest speculation

China definitely has problems. They MAY have a planned exit to overcome these problems. Jim Willie says that China is moving forward with it's plans Re; gold.
"The sleazy central banker crew defaulted on the gold lease from 1999, evident in 2014. The same sleazy vile crew have used tricks like bank derivatives to create phony bond demand, tricks like Reverse REPO to undo the last rate hike by ramping up to dangerous levels the bond leverage, alongside massive bond default on legacy bonds from nearly a century ago. The fact that a bond is old does not invalidate the bonds integrity and requirement for honoring it. The criminal central banker crew in all likelihood stole at least $3 trillion in Saudi USTBonds as well, which serve as ESFund core. "

"The Western bankers have a long history of lies, deceit, betrayal, subterfuge, sabotage, and pilferage. " "He expects their harsh clear revenge to follow, with the launch of the long awaited Global Currency RESET to come next."
"China likely perceived a maneuver to sabotage Trump by the banker cabal, and the Beijing leaders yelled PUNT, game over, no more cooperation."
Front Seat in Shanghai: Jig is Up
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  #2013  
Old 03-22-2017, 06:54 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Rollover, judas goat,, cash only for RE

Armstrong says that the crash will be in the public-debt sector. Maybe so. That doesn't mean that the private sector won't crash first OR concurrently. There are signs that the markets are starting to roll over.
1987, "Stocks declined by more than 22% on October 19. Now, looking at the present, Michael said on my show on March 14 that the T-Bond market broke through that same comparable 1987 floor about one week ago and on Tuesday"
Oliver?s Market Summary as of March 14, 2017 - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

"As shown in the chart below, on a cumulative 4-week basis the slowdown in C&I loan creation tumbled by 2.8% as of the latest period: this was the biggest monthly slowdown going back to the financial crisis."
It seems that loan origination is crashing,
Banks Slash Loan Books While Equities Hover Near All-Time Highs; Someone Is Massively Wrong | Zero Hedge
Pump it up and crash it down AND buy up the pieces for pennies.

"T-Bond markets signal that higher rates means our economy is strong. If the Fed says T-Bonds are signalling a stronger economy, what more do you need?

But if you trust the Fed, then you may as well trust the Tooth Fairy. As James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed recently pointed out, the Fed is beyond clueless when it comes to predicting interest rates. "
Bullard has long been cursed with a streak of honesty.
"Michael Olivers brilliant technical work has led him to perceive that the U.S. T-Bond is a Judas Goat. Yep, lead them to slaughter.
Is the U.S. T-Bond a Judas Goat? - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

Armstrong; "We must understand that property values are LEVERAGED, so if the money for fixed rate loans dries up because of interest rate hikes and political uncertainty, then real estate prices MUST fall. This is all because of the leverage that was deliberately injected into the real estate market during the Great Depression for property fell in value so far, only cash buyers could buy anything. Farm land fell in value to below what it was sold for by the government more than 80 years before."
"Real estate is different from stocks and gold. Yes it is a place to park money. However, be careful because without mortgages available, it falls further than other tangible assets because it has been LEVERAGED! "
Martin Armstrong Explains Why Real Estate is DIFFERENT From Stocks and Gold | Silver Doctors
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  #2014  
Old 03-23-2017, 02:49 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fleeing capital causes price inflation,, the end of the rentier economy

A lot of investors have bought up tons of RE to park money. This has upheld residential RE prices in spite of falling wages. The end result is that the wage earner is priced out of the market. The renter is slowly being squeezed for everything that he has. This won't end well,,, or soon.

"Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
What will replace the current system after it self-destructs? That's the question."
"Here is a table of the growth rate of the GDP.
If we use $18 trillion as the approximate GDP and a growth rate of, say, 3.5%, the total of goods and services would increase one year to the next by about $600 billion.
Meanwhile, referencing the Grandfather national debt chart with the USDebtClock data, the annual interest bill is $3 trillion. "
Our "growth rate" is negative.

"As both of us have stated, you can create all of the money you want, however, production of real things cannot be accomplished with a keystroke.
Then there is the issue of liberty. Each Federal Reserve Note is a liability of the Fed and gives the bearer the right but not the obligation to purchase whatever the Fed deems appropriate. How much one can purchase keeps changing base on a theory-driven experiment that has never worked. Since the Fed is nothing more than an agent of the Central State, the ability to control what the wages of its workers will purchase, is a dangerous power for any government.
If a Federal Reserve Note is a liability of the central bank, then what is the asset? The only possible answer is the nations productivity. So, in essence, an agent of the government, the central bank, most of which are privately owned (ownership is cloaked in secrecy) owns the entire productive output of free and democratic nation-states. "
Then there is the solution, default. That only resolves the books, the liability of human needs remain. Bankruptcy does not resolve the residue of social misery and suffering left behind for the masses who became dependent on lofty promises (debt). These promises (debts) were based on theories that have reappeared throughout human history under different guises but have never worked.
More debt will not resolve debt. The individuals liberty is nonexistent if he does not own his labor. A people should consider carefully the viability (arithmetical consequences) of borrowing, at interest, to consume their own production. The asset of our labor cannot simultaneously be a liability we owe to ourselves at interest."
"What is the alternative to the present system of debt serfdom and rising inequality? There is none in our financialized, Neofeudal-Neocolonial State-Cartel Rentier Economy that creates and distributes credit-money at the top of the wealth-power pyramid."
Dear America: Better Read The Fine Print On Your Credit Card Statement | Zero Hedge

You see the great problem. The current system is collapsing but, there is no replacement system on the horizon. While this system is collapsing, people will want to continue to eat. As more rich people become aware of the coming collapse, they will try to retreat into tangibles. IF they don't retreat into gold, they will cause increasing price inflation that will continuously price the wage-earner out of the markets. The State has tried to get the rich to store their money in bonds. Bonds are looking increasingly bad.
It is dangerous to price the common man out of housing.
3/21 Toronto home prices may jump 25% this year Bloomberg
He has already been priced out of having a family. IF/when he is priced out of eating, then, we will see big trouble. The State is desperate to keep the money in the bond market but, the fools created ZIRP to try to save the banks.

All the happy-talk from GOV is an effort to keep money from parking in whatever appears to be the safest bet. Shadowstats says that price inflation is running about 10%. The aggregate earning power of the working class is falling. As prices rise, the market dies. Liar-loans are supporting several markets at this point. As loan origination falls, there will be more and more segments of discretionary spending that will wither away. We have shrinking credit and a shrinking workforce.
If T-bills are a judas-goat and stocks are starting to roll over, where will capital flow? Kunstler said that it would be sucked into a black hole.

If the debt ceiling is NOT raised, there will not be any "new" money flowing into the markets. How can the old debt be serviced by new debt if there is no new debt? Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible. When it is much too late, they will see the error of gridlock.
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  #2015  
Old 03-23-2017, 03:23 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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What happens when you cut up the national credit card?

Armstrong was a professor and has a good talent for getting an idea across. Here is a vid where he does just that. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/u...he-solution-3/
Keep in mind that he has his viewpoint as an investor. He blames everything on GOV and socialism. Though, he also blames everything on the interest burden. He decries interest but, makes no mention of debt-free money. He decries socialism but, makes no mention of automation.

"People thought that Quantitative Easing was a drastic increase in money supply that would be inflationary. It was not. What they do NOT look at is that because government debt in the form of bills, notes, and bonds, all can be used as collateral in a loan, the entire national debt has now become simply cash that pays interest. In the 1960s, you could not borrow against an E-Bond. That meant it was less inflationary to borrow than to print. Today, that is no longer true and you can keep your cash in T-Bills at any brokerage house. Essentially, the entire national debt has already been monetized yet it has become currency that merely pays interest."

This is an important thing to understand. We have had a huge bout of monetary inflation since we went off the gold standard. The debt ceiling is hugely deflationary. Wage deflation has been hugely deflationary to the upper loop of the economy. That's why the finance sector has to print so much new "money". Finance used to be 5% of the economy. The FED printed like crazy and monetized the debt like crazy so that the finance sector is now 40% of the economy.
The finance sector is using monetary injections from the FED to make up for our lost wages. Congress wants to put the brakes on to trip up Trump.
Without new funds, the defaults start at the top and cascade down.

New issuance T-bills are sent to the FED to be monetized. Then, they are sent to the primary dealers to be resold to investors. All of this has to be rolled over. Various sovereigns are dumping T-bills and now, the Easter Bunny is buying them. Freezing the system with a ceiling will also cause huge problems with eurodollars demanded / needed to service dollar-denominated debt in a hundred other States.

The rest-of-the-world will suffer from the debt ceiling more than America will.
"ANSWER: Historically, capital tends to flow first from the financial capital of the world to the outer provinces or state. This was how it functioned in the Roman times as was the case for postwar when US capital flowed outward to rebuild the rest of the world. Then what happens is as an empire begins to die (in this case Western Culture), the capital flow reverses and then moves back toward the core economy which is the financial capital of the world."

"When the Sovereign Debt Crisis hit in 1931, government simply defaulted. The bonds were then delisted never to come back again.

What transpires at that moment when government moves into a Crash & Burn, is that all tangible assets rise together, albeit at different rates of advance. This is what I call the Great Alignment."
"Therefore, we will see gold rise WITH the stock market not counter-trend. Likewise, real estate survives provided you do not enter into a Dark Age when not even gold survives only food."
The stock market depends on consumption.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...d-then-inward/
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  #2016  
Old 03-23-2017, 02:16 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The long decline

Well, the long predicted end of the Trump reflation is now upon us. The bonehead investors figured out that the bonehead congress wasn't going to play ball with Trump. https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-fac...feat-tomorrow/
The stock market has ALWAYS been a place where money moves in and out based on fear & greed. BUT, free money never has pangs of fear. The stock market never suffers a reset due to bad fundamentals. The CB refuses to let fear get in the way. Earnings are stagnant but, prices just keep going up. With the markets WAY above historical values, the fear is slowly starting to seep in.
Garret/Galland Investment Research You Can Trust

The drop has started; Have We Reached A Turning Point For Stocks? Tuesday Was The Worst Day For The Stock Market In 6 Months
So, at what point will investors get back in the stock market? Earnings are dead. WHY should they get back in the markets?

3/24 Reflation trade hangs in the balance as health care vote looms Bloomberg It is not looming. It is DOA.
3/24 San Francisco median home price now over $1.3 million Dr. Housing Bubble
3/24 Italy falls out of love with euro: Beppe Grillo on the rise Mish The headline should read, Italy falls out of love with poverty.
3/24 Populism may be a bigger deal than monetary, fiscal policy Bloomberg Starvation has a way of doing that.
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  #2017  
Old 03-24-2017, 04:16 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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How much default can the system take?

The CB is insistent on pumping in new debt regardless of economic fundamentals.
"By 2007, the total value of these subprime RE loans hit a whopping $1.3 trillion. Remember that number."

"Over the last decade or so, theres been an absolute explosion in student loans, growing from $260 billion in 2004 to $1.31 trillion last year.

So, the total value of student loans in America today is LARGER than the total value of subprime loans at the peak of the financial bubble."
"the student loan default rate is 11.2%, almost the same as the peak mortgage default rate in 2010.
This is particularly interesting because student loans essentially have no collateral."
"Federal Reserve data once again show that, for at least 25% of college graduates, salaries are no higher than for people with just a high school diploma."
This New Bubble Is Even Bigger Than The Subprime Fiasco | Zero Hedge
Then, there is the problem with auto loans, 6 million borrowers are 90 days late on their car loans - Dec. 1, 2016

Oil is still in the news. There are a few new mega-projects that will soon come on line. Oil is not doing well.
Crude Inventory Build Sends Oil Prices Into a Nosedive | Oil Price | FINANCIAL SENSE
So, just how high can default rates go before things go SPLAT?
" 73% of consumers had outstanding debt when they were reported as dead"
Americans Are Dying With an Average of $62K of Debt | Fox Business
I guess that dying is the ultimate default.
Kunstler said that we don't have an economy. We have a web of rackets. He just might be right, https://www.yahoo.com/tech/hackers-t...101801427.html
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  #2018  
Old 03-24-2017, 03:31 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Terror & bonds,, debt ceiling & bonds

Every attack in Europe raises the possibilities of Le Pen getting elected. BUT, Le Pen has promised to (effectively) destroy the bond market and the Eurozone. Parliament has come out and said, "this wasn't an islamic attack". Every attack, in Brussels, France, Sweden, Germany, GB, et al is one more dagger in the heart of the European bond market.
The chosenites are using the financial power of the bond market to bring about the cultural destruction of Europe.
http://www.energeticforum.com/299835-post144.html

Every nationalist candidate and/or leader is a threat to the bond market. This is especially true for Trump and the FED. De Gaulle and JFK were previous threats to the power of the financial rulers.
Armstrong has called for a crash of the sovereign bond market. Le Pen, Trump, Grillo, et al, are just moving it along. A crash of the sovereign bond market would seriously reduce the power of the one-worlders.

The problems at Deutsche bank have essentially confirmed that the European banking system is not long for this world. The America banking system is slightly better because of capital flight from weaker systems. BUT, America is burdened by the horrendous cost of it's many wars.
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress...-relationship/

A crash of sovereign debt would remove much of the power of the finance class but, it would also cause widespread misery and death. Russia will be exempt from this crash due to many fundamentals that are in their favor.

The debt ceiling & budget battle have essentially set a timeline for the collapse of the bond market. There is a small possibility that the FED would be allowed to monetize tons of new Treasury issuance in time to save the Euro-dollar market but, it isn't likely. If / when the European banks go down, they will bring down a lot of other banks with them.
The battle to stop Trump will undermine the bond market that is the source of power for those trying to stop him.
It wouldn't be the first time that politicians have shot themselves in the foot.

Now seems to be the time to buy silver. Dead Men Walking? | SilverSeek.com
China wants to pull a rabbit out of the hat with all that gold they have accumulated, John Hathaway – China To Radically Reprice Gold Higher In 2017 As Demise Of The COMEX & LBMA Accelerates | King World News
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  #2019  
Old 03-25-2017, 01:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The deep state cracking,, the narrative crashing

Charles Hugh Smith has a fantastic ability to envision, describe and project things around us that we don't "readily" analyse.
"This is why the Deep State is fracturing: its narratives no longer align with the evidence."
"The New Yorker is right about one thing--the Deep State is not a "conspiracy:" it is a vast machine of control that is largely impervious to the views or demands of elected representatives or the American people. The key to understanding this social-political-economic control is to grasp that control of the narratives, expertise and authority is control of everything."
"We can now define the Deep State with some precision. The Deep State is fundamentally the public-private centralized nodes that collect, archive and curate dominant narratives and their supporting evidence, and disseminate these narratives to the public via the media and to the state agencies"

"Curation is a critical factor in maintaining control of the narrative and thus of control; the evidence is constantly curated to best support the chosen narrative"
"The primary claim of each Deep State node is that its expertise and authority cannot be questioned. In other words, while the dominant narrative can be questioned (but only cursorily, of course), the expertise and authority of the institutional node cannot be questioned."
"This is why the Deep State is fracturing: the expertise and authority of its nodes are delaminating because its narratives no longer align with the evidence. " "There is indeed a Deep State, but its control of dominant narratives, and thus its source of control and power, is crumbling. "
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Deep State's Dominant Narratives and Authority Are Crumbling
I suppose that this article could also be posted at American Ruling Class
The deep state is definitely having a heart attack over losing control of the information flow.

"For the last three years, the political establishment in Italy and beyond have had a field day attacking, ridiculing, and vilifying Beppe Grillos 5-star movement. Yet his party still leads the polls. And that lead is growing."
"economists including Deutsche Bank AGs Marco Stringa are calling Italy, not France or Greece, the main risk to euro-area stability."What stability?
"country already with public debt of over 2 trillion, youth unemployment of almost 40%, and an economy that is 12% smaller than it was 10 years ago, "
Side note; "If the latest surveys of business intentions are to be believed, the euro zone economy is sparkling, growing at a pace that easily explains the hints from some European Central Bank policymakers of a pull-back from their easy-money regime."
Euro zone economy sparkles, lights way for ECB pull-back | Reuters
Eurozone Whistles Past its Biggest Threat | Wolf Street
The Italians are definitely misaligned with the truth.

America is definitely misaligned from all the happy talk, The retail apocalypse has officially descended on America - Business Insider
Probably something to do with the great loss of discretionary spending as a result of the global mean wage.

"Americans fled Europe because of all the political infighting. They were isolationists and felt Europe should fend for itself. It was the politicians who lied and did whatever it took to maneuver the opinion to support their desire for war. We are merely returning to a period of isolationism after countless wars and attempts to create nation building so politicians can pound their chests.
FDR went to Boston to promise their sons would NEVER go to Europe to defend the British.
By no means should we view the Dutch elections as this being the end of populism. It is just getting started because politicians have abused the people countless times. "
"have indeed still ushered in the dawn of a new populism in Europe, which is always against the establishment. That was in fact what swept FDR into office in 1933, Hitler in Germany also in 1933, and Mao also in 1933."
"The important change in trend will come in May" ??
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-here-to-stay/

In Canada, I was in a discussion with a socialist politician. I was shocked at the response to their view of the economy that everything you earned belonged to the state and they decided how much you were allowed to keep. "
"The CRA is now selling socialism by relabeling this as a new sharing economy
"You are not capable of being able to manage your own affairs and are way too stupid to understand what is the best way to spend money. Therefore, the CRA explains that the tax obligations for individuals or small businesses involved in the sharing economy means they MUST report ALL income earned"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...aring-economy/

The BS data is misaligned from the reality on the ground; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...324_PMI4_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...e-6-month-lows
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  #2020  
Old 03-26-2017, 01:15 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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QE did nothing for earnings in assets

Armstrong says that investment will move from the failed public bond market back into private investment. I have to disagree with him because private investment depends on consumption and profits. Only the public sector is "immune" from the necessities of profit-making.
Stocks; "This is saying over the next 25yrs, there will be three new sellers per every new buyer and sellers are mandated to sell over twice as fast as it is hoped that buyers accumulate (assuming there is adequate full time job growth and wage growth providing the excess income for retirement savings"

"And if we make an assumption that the significantly slower growth in full time jobs and wage growth results in just a 15% reduction in retirement savings among the 25-60yr/old population, the mandated sellers overwhelm buyers in about 15yrs from now."
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...ns-spells.html
Even today, stock earnings are non-existent.

Earnings per share;
"Again, the primary problem was in fundamentally misreading and misinterpreting what QE was it was not money printing no matter how many times the media repeats the assertion supposedly derived from the editorial standards for what constitutes good authority. What should have been considered to a greater degree was how these views on QE amounted to little more than confirmation bias. All the evidence to that point suggested QE wasnt working and hadnt worked"
"Therein lies our stock market revisit with the dot-coms, not just in terms of valuations but more so the psychology of them. Stock investors wanted QE to work just as they wanted to believe in the late 1990s Alan Greenspan was a genius who had engineered a new normal then of unparalleled, low volatility prosperity."

" At $94.54, ttm EPS are almost exactly the same now as when QE3 started, and are only 6.8% more than Q1 2012 all those years ago! "
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2017...rse-of-keynes/
All that free money pumped in just helped valuations. ONLY consumption can help earnings.

Apparently, Canada is going to emulate Europe; Canada Passes 'Blasphemy' Bill To Silence Critics Of Islam | Zero Hedge

"I am not at all surprised that Democratic senate minority leader Chuck Schumer has recently vowed to throw the debt ceiling talks into disarray if Trump continues to pursue a rollback of Obamacare, the building of the southern border wall, or the defunding of Planned Parenthood. Schumer has specifically warned of a government shutdown designed to prevent the Trump administration from instituting such policies."
Watch These Geopolitical Flashpoints Carefully | Zero Hedge
Right on schedule.
Russia has their alternative to SWIFT up and running; https://www.rt.com/business/382017-r...-central-bank/
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  #2021  
Old 03-26-2017, 04:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The State is criminal from ANY viewpoint

This is what Bastiat had to say about the "State";
"I wager ten to one that for six months you have been making utopias; and if you have been making them, I wager ten to one that you place upon the state the responsibility of realizing them.
And you, madame, I am sure that you desire from the bottom of your heart to cure all the ills of mankind, and that you would be in no wise embarrassed if the state would only lend a hand. "
Bastiat: Selected Essays, Chapter 5, The State | Library of Economics and Liberty

Lord Acton, "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely".
So, we "give" great power to the State and expect it to cure all of our problems. We act surprised when the State uses this power to cure it's problems. All States are socialist in that they redistribute wealth. All States are fascist in that they distribute wealth to their rich controllers.
Bastiat, " I, too, long to have at hand that inexhaustible source of riches and enlightenment, that universal physician, that limitless treasure, that infallible counselor, that you call the state."

"It is the unfortunate primitive tendency which all men have to divide their complex lot in life into two parts, shifting the pains to others and keeping the satisfactions for themselves"
"The State is the great fiction through which everyone endeavours to live at the expense of everyone else. " "each of us, more or less, would like to profit from the labor of others."
"It will be the arbiter, the master, of all destinies. It will take a great deal; hence, a great deal will remain for itself. It will multiply the number of its agents; it will enlarge the scope of its prerogatives; it will end by acquiring overwhelming proportions. "
Bastiat: Selected Essays, Chapter 5, The State | Library of Economics and Liberty

Our slide to a global mean wage has brought destitution to the working man. The bankers used the State to hold back their incipient destitution. The repeal of Glass -Stegal was an overt milestone. The State is a parasite that continually grows. The State relies on the tax base to fund the parasite.

Armstrong, "What I can equate this to is Aristotle and Plato. To them, the Greek doctrine is very clear on this subject. The very essence of the state consists of, is the essence of force. The existence of force is for Plato and Aristotle alike, a sign not of the state dignity or Majesty, but of a states utter failure. The more a state moves toward economic bankruptcy, the more they will use force to retain power."
" The best states are closely knit together so that the interests of one person are the same as the interests of all. Consequently, a person who acts for his or her own interest must also act for the interest of all fellow citizens."
" The good of the individual is subordinated to the survival of the state. "

Side note, The State has reached a new milestone. GOV now steals more than "conventional" burglars; https://www.rutherford.org/publicati...set_forfeiture
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.f551553d15a8

Government Is Not Reason, It Is Not Eloquence It Is Force is a correct statement. " https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...e-it-is-force/
The State naturally tries to maintain a monopoly on violence. BUT, all this control is quite expensive. The tax base is shrinking. Theft only makes up a small part of the deficit. Those people who depend on the State for their daily bread are getting quite nervous. They would willing vote for a raging criminal to be their leader as long as she kept the food trough full.

The weak point of both socialism and the Hegelian Dialectic is; they both kill motivation and productivity. Socialism is the firewall between non-producers and Darwinian pressures. Socialism generates and regenerates non-producers until the balance between accounts receivable and accounts due become unsustainable.
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Old 03-26-2017, 04:30 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Chris Martensen

This article is so packed with good information, you have to read all of it. Ill only do a couple of excerpts.
"Money is not wealth; it is merely a claim on wealth. Debt is a claim on future money. The only way to have faith in our current monetary policies is if one believes that we can always grow our debts at roughly twice the rate of GDP -- forever. "
"But bankruptcy is a legal process, and its not possible for an entire economy to enter a legal process, so what do we mean when by talking of a looming bankruptcy? Simply put, all those the claims represented by all the debt and excess printed currency have to be destroyed, or reduced, to bring things back into balance. "
"Our current debts and other national liabilities now total more than 1,000%(!) of the nation's annual income, a.k.a GDP.

US economic growth began slowing due to its accelerating too much debt problem back around 2000. Instead of allowing natural market forces to clear out the excessive debts, the Federal Reserve chose to go into overdrive to remedy the problem."
"The fact that savers and pension plans have been utterly decimated by these low (even negative rates in some parts of the world) is not even a passing concern to the Federal Reserve. Their only goal has been to get credit expanding again as fast as possible. "
"Regrettably, though, thats the plan of every major central bank around the world right now.

Because it's mathematically guaranteed to fail, our only job as private individuals is to understand the situation accurately and to then take actions that are in alignment with the reality of living within such a broken system. "
"That right there, in a nutshell, describes the systemic abuse by the banking elite that began under Greenspan when he bailed out Wall Street in 1998 (during the LTCM debacle). This was followed closely by the repeal of Glass-Steagall under Clinton in 1999. Since then, it has been an orgy of exploitation. And after a brief pause during the Great Recession (during which the banks paid themselves record bonuses while receiving taxpayer bailouts), it got worse than ever."
Chris Martenson: "Why This Market Needs To Crash (And Likely Will)" | Zero Hedge
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Old 03-26-2017, 05:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The cause and result of the gridlock in D.C.

From the Chris Martensen article; "The boomer generation in charge has a lot to answer for in this story; from their inability to lead boldly, to their selfish pushing-off of the repercussions of their own poor decisions onto future generations"
The boomer generation worked hard but, lost control of the political process. The control matrix went into overdrive and we rarely heard the truth. If we protested the wars, we were brutally repressed. The military-industrial-banking complex made sure that any anti-war movements were vilified. Out of ignorance of the facts, we elected some bad politicians. But, the war party was the only party that we could chose "from".
Our "poor decisions" consisted to a great degree on believing the promises from GOV. We assumed that the politicians had the best interests of Americans at heart, not the best interests of israel.
We made fatal decisions based on the info presented by MSM. We are / were chemically dumbed down so as not to question the State narrative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsUjRvYtDU8

The endless deceit has led the country into a financial impasse. All that is left is a consortium of rackets. EVERYONE is fighting to hold on to their advantage and sinecure. It doesn't matter what happens to everyone else as long as I continue to get my "due" share. It doesn't matter if I produce nothing,,, just so long as I get my rewards.

Here are some comments;
This is what ZIRP is doing the the economy - creating a buildup of zombie banks and corporations, captured regulators and bad debts that is smothering the economy. At some point there will be a combination of factors - an exogenous or endogenous shock, and there will be an economic firestorm that no amount of money printing can paper over.

We already know the legislature is not well-functioning. If they do not compromise, and if you do not accept compromise, then you reject America - and everything which America stands for! You are not a real American, if you're against compromise. Compromise is the only reason for the existence of the legislature.
Be arrogant, if you must. Be sold on your own narrow but utterly impossible little prophetic vision for how the world should work. But know this, though you will laugh it off, mock it, you were one of those who formed the basis of the destruction of the systems of govenment.

The fourth turning is here, and plain. Gone are the old men who could compromise.

10,000 large and small mill towns and manufacturing cities are dead, supported by McDonalds, Social Security, Disability, town/county shuffle jobs.

20 million illegals taking jobs, pumping up welfare burdens, sending cash home. 5 million H1B keeping tech fat. 1 million legal from 3rd world bring grandma with the brain tumor over.
I do not speak of fairness. I speak of the fourth turning. What do you think representative democracy is for? The whole point is to reach compromises. But the Baby Boomers are a bunch of spoiled brat arrogant idiots, who insist on always getting their way. Now they drive the ship of state into the ground.
But let's be clear. If you cannot abide by compromise, then you aren't even an American. You're an overgrown baby that cannot call himself an adult.

No compromise? No legislative government. No America.
Your mind is captured by a perverse dynamic that is dominated by politics.
We have not had a free market democratic republic since the Civil War.
What we have is an immoral warfare state funded by an entirely unsustainable debt based monetary system. This cannot be reformed. It must be blown up.
The headlines should be dominated by talk of enterprize, prosperity and caring. But they are dominated by politics, war and monetary central planning.
What do you think the purpose of a legislature is? Do you suppose the point is to NOT compromise? What a JOKE!

The comments are very harsh on baby boomers. It must be remembered that the average boomer had no immoral part in the destruction. The boomer politicians are a different story; McCain: "The New World Order Is Under Enormous Strain" | Zero Hedge
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Old 03-27-2017, 03:14 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Liquidity traps and pension collapses

" If repealing Obamacare is tough, just wait for tax reform and the debt limit."
"And the Bernanke Fed surely thought at the time that doubling its balance sheet during the 2008/09 crisis was a one-time response to a once-in-a-lifetime financial dislocation."
The productive economy crashed and the FED stepped in to save the banks,,,,, somehow thinking that it would be a one-off save. They had to be pretty stupid to just ignore the fundamentals.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Discussions on the Fed Put
"Theres a counter argument that stimulus measures and monetary inflation got completely away from Dr. Bernanke - and global central banks more generally. Today, peak global monetary stimulus equates with peak securities market values and peak optimism all having been powerfully self-reinforcing"
Yep, self-reinforcing of THE UPPER LOOP ONLY.

I started tracking this issue in 2004 after the Orange County Board of Supervisors gave a retroactive pension formula increase of 62 percent to county employees, Oh, but, they wanted it SO badly. " six Los Angeles public safety officers who collected over $1 million apiece last year in pensions, and eight cities that could face bankruptcy when the next recession hits." "The question is why havent the headlines presaged pension implosions? As was the case with the subprime crisis, the writing appears to be on the wall. And yet calamity has yet to strike."
"Its no coincidence that pensions flight from safety has coincided with the drop in interest rates." "the average return for public pensions was somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 percent."
Gotta save the banks at all cost.

"The working assumption is that the Pension Tsunami will never make land fall, but the next time you take comfort in the sanctity of pensions given they have yet to self-destruct"
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...kets-to-ignore

Illinois would like to cancel all of it's legacy debt. That includes $130 billion pension debt; Is Bankruptcy For Illinois The Answer? | Zero Hedge
Gridlock has a price; This Is The Nightmare Scenario For The GOP: A $2 Trillion Funding "Hole" | Zero Hedge
Can't forget China; "They should, because as Deutsche Bank puts it, if taken too far, they threaten an "uncontrollable liquidity event", i.e., the financial cataclysm that Kyle Bass and other perma-china-bears have been waiting for."
China has tried and tried to control runaway lending. The banks were stacking logs on the burn pile. Now, they are pouring gasoline on it. On The Edge Of An "Uncontrollable Liquidity Event": The Definitive Guide To China's Financial System | Zero Hedge

"It will in fact be driven by pension funds that cannot pay out what they promised to retirees. According to one pension advocacy organization, nearly 1 million working and retired Americans are covered by pension plans at the risk of collapse."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...nancial-crisis
Brought to you by ZIRP. BUT, it was worth it to save the banks.

China isn't the only State with a liquidity problem, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...dity-collapses

India, "Businesses are failing and the poorest are finding employment very difficult to come by. Food prices are still much cheaper than normal, as a result of the economic struggles of poor people. Farmers are facing huge financial pressure in turn." NOT a good sign.
" A huge wave of young, mostly unskilled, untrained and uneducated people about 12 million join Indias workforce every year"
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=48912
Both India and Pakistan are going to fall into total meltdown.

Mnuchin says that you can stop worrying about automation; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...king-new-repor

3/26 ECBs next policy moves are in flux: Bundesbank Reuters Brought on by failure and paralysis.
3/26 Feds Williams says goal is to get inflation back to 2% and keep it there MarketWatch
3/26 New research identifies sea of despair among white, working-class Americans WaPo I wonder why?
3/26 NSA spied on Congress, Supreme Court and Trump Informational Liberation No kidding. That was the whole purpose in their creation.
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Old 03-28-2017, 01:28 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Bank stocks, Venezuela, unpopulism, rape from defense contractors

"The Dow Jones industrial average ended about 45 points lower after falling nearly 200 points earlier, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most losses."
Dow posts 8-day slide, longest since 2011, as Street weighs tax reform prospects
Bank stocks lost 6% in ONE day. The FED will undoubtedly come to the rescue.
StockResearch - Miller's Market Musings

"What Im strictly relating my argument too is the phenom and psychology that reemerges with a vengeance during what is known as the topping process. aka The late stages of a bubble mentality.
Long and technical; https://markstcyr.com/2017/03/26/the...-very-worried/

"Graham Stock told Bloomberg that he puts Venezuelas odds of a default this year at 50 percent."
"The government depends on oil production for more than 90 percent of its export revenues"
"Bloomberg reported that Venezuelas largest port at Puerto Cabello is quiet, with satellite imagery showing no vessels arriving or departing."
Venezuela In Dire Straits As Oil Production Falls Further | OilPrice.com

Unpopulism, "The share of national income that went to the bottom 90% of the population held steady at around 66% from 1950 to 1980. It then began a steep decline, falling to just over 50% when the financial crisis broke in 2007."
"During the business cycle upswing between 1961 and 1969, the bottom 90% of Americans took 67% of the income gains. During the Reagan expansion two decades later they took 20%. During the Greenspan housing bubble of 2001 to 2007, they got just two cents in every extra dollar of national income generated while the richest 10% took the rest."
"The US economist Thomas Palley* says that up until the late 1970s countries operated a virtuous circle growth model in which wages were the engine of demand growth." YES, wages.
"Unpopulism was touted as the antidote to the supposedly failed policies of the postwar era. It promised higher growth rates, higher investment rates, higher productivity rates and a trickle down of income from rich to poor. It has delivered none of these things." WHAT TRICKLE?

"Populism is seen as irrational and reprehensible. It is neither. It seems entirely rational for the bottom 90% of the US population to question why they are getting only 2% of income gains. It hardly seems strange that workers in Britain should complain at the weakest decade for real wage growth since the Napoleonic wars."
https://www.theguardian.com/business...onomic-failure

The banks love war because war is such good business. Defense contractors love war because they can blatantly screw the pentagon and rarely get caught. http://www.activistpost.com/2017/03/...dod-knows.html
The F-35 is an expensive boondoggle that doesn't work. The next projected boondoggle is even more expensive, https://sofrep.com/77149/new-marine-...t-f-35-really/
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Old 03-28-2017, 02:25 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The fruits of immorality, Strauss & Howe, Tainter

Douglas MacArthur;
"History fails to record a single precedent in which nations subject
to moral decay have not passed into political and economic decline.
There has been either a spiritual awakening to overcome the moral lapse,
or a progressive deterioration leading to ultimate national disaster."
"Individuals lose their moral bearing when they become dependent on government. Subsidies, bailouts, and other aspects of the nanny state socialize risk and reduce individual accountability. The internal moral compass that normally guides individual behavior will no longer function when the State undermines incentives for moral conduct and blurs the distinction between right and wrong."
https://fee.org/articles/the-rise-of...e-of-morality/

More; https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.o.../pdf/cl-12.pdf

"The agreement is remarkable across political and religious subsets. Not only do 73 percent believe the entertainment media has a negative effect on Americas commitment to moral values, thats a sentiment shared by Republicans (86 percent) and Democrats (68 percent); conservatives (80 percent) and liberals (64 percent); even religious types identified as orthodox (82 percent) and mostly secular progressives (62 percent). "
And, who owns the media?
The numbers on moral decline - Washington Times

Moral analysis of an economic collapse an exercise in practical ethics
Vilhjlmur rnason

Moral analysis of an economic collapse ? an exercise in practical ethics | rnason | Etikk i praksis - Nordic Journal of Applied Ethics

Here is a list of 100 facts about our moral decline. Quite a few of them are related to religion but, several of them are really bad.
100 Facts About The Moral Collapse Of America That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe – The Truth

"At least two generations of American young people have been taught that moral categories are nothing more than personal (or societal) preferences. Recently, an incredulous professor of philosophy wrote an opinion piece in the New York Times titled Why Our Children Dont Think There Are Moral Facts. In it he noted, Without fail, every value claim is labeled an opinion

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...decay-speeding
Our constant wars have no connection to ANY moral cause; http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017...-longer-exist/

Our economic decline, as predicted by the good general is well advanced. Everybody wants to live (well) at somebody else's expense. ALL of this is propped up by the FED. How can we have an economy and a society if so many leaders are devoid of any morals? WE CAN'T.

This is the fate of the West, primarily, of America. Our fate is pre-ordained. We are in moral collapse because we didn't think that it mattered. We saw no wider result when did something dishonest. Each generation learned from their parents and pushed immorality a bit further. The work ethic was something for OTHER people,,, the suckers and stupid people. Welfare pays better than work so, don't be stupid.

As the linear thinking establishment continues to be blindsided by the continued deterioration of the economic, political, social, and cultural conditions in the world, we have entered the most treacherous phase of our present Fourth Turning.
That ominous mood engulfing the world is not a new dynamic, but a cyclical event arriving every 80 or so years. Eight decades ago the world was on the verge of a world war which would kill 65 million people. Eight decades prior to 1937 the country was on the verge of a Civil War which would kill almost 5% of the male population. Eight decades prior to 1857 the American Revolution had just begun and would last six more bloody years.

Psychohistory is a blend of crowd psychology and high-level math. An able psychohistorian can predict the long-term aggregate behavior of billions of people many years in the future. However, it only works with large groups.
The cyclical nature of history, driven by generational cohorts numbering tens of millions, has been documented over centuries by Strauss & Howe in their 1997 opus The Fourth Turning. Human beings in large numbers react in a herd-like predictable manner.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...lactic-empire/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmau.../#1b27bc2375b0
You can find the work of Tainter in pdf and on Youtube.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...613ABAE66E3452
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Old 03-28-2017, 03:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Chicago is "special"

" The City of Chicago, IL received the second highest amount of federal funding on a per capita basis: $1,942 per person; $7,768 per family of four; or $5.3 billion total."
So, Chicago is a "sanctuary city". The Attorney General says that they are going to lose federal money,,,, along with more than 300 other groups.
AG Sessions Makes Surprise Sanctuary City Announcement; Vows To Withhold Funding | Zero Hedge

The criminals move in and honest people move out.
"Cook County, Ill., where Chicago is the county seat, had the largest population loss of any county in the country from 2015 and 2016."
"Cook County alone had a domestic migration loss of more than 66,000 people. That is a staggering number of people to lose in a single year."
Thousands Of Americans Are Fleeing The Big Cities In Preparation For The Coming American Apocalypse
So, as the State fleeces the working people, they leave. That lowers the tax base and,,,, taxes are raised. More non-producers are attracted by the generous benefits and,,,,, taxes must be raised. The drain of additional taxes reduces discretionary spending and the economy sinks lower.

The feces-for-brains politicians fear for the worst and are gearing-up to meet the challenge. Naturally, they NEVER learn from history. They figure that they will just do a show-of-force and everybody will go home.
Coming To An Inner-City Uprising Near You: The "Ultimate Riot Control Truck" Of The Future | Zero Hedge
THAT has never happened. If a mob can't take it out on the "authorities", They ALWAYS take it out on the infrastructure. They burn it all down.

Chicago is seriously in the red and can't well afford to lose $101,923,076 a WEEK.
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Old 03-28-2017, 08:29 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Unravelling of complexity,,, vaporization of capitalization

Tainter wrote a very good book about the collapse of complex societies. The more complex the society,,, the more effort it took to hold it all together. The failing society peels off layers of complexity like peeling an onion. Modern society has definitely reached some kind of pinnacle of complexity. The problems in one area affect the problems in other areas.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Overlapping Crises Are Coming, Regardless of Who's in Power
" No leader can reverse the dynamics of mutually reinforcing crises. No one can reverse the diminishing returns on financialization, debt, centralization, financial fakery, rentier state-cartel parasitism, or reverse the decline in paid work, the erosion of well-being and health and rising inequality.
There is no way to actually forestall the reckoning as the forces of demographics, financial predation, Imperial over-reach, soaring debts, political disunity, technology disruption and the failings of state-cartel centralization grind up the status quo."

Globalism is going into reverse since people have no money; https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/28/more...y-yields-fall/

"On the first day of March 2017, the combined market capitalization of U.S. nonfinancial and financial stocks reached $34 trillion. Those trillions of dollars in paper wealth filter down to the investment statements of millions of investors, reflected in quotes on computer screens and blotches of ink on paper. Over the completion of the current market cycle, we estimate that roughly half of U.S. equity market capitalization - $17 trillion in paper wealth - will simply vanish. Nobody will get that wealth."
"By contrast, an expected 50% loss of U.S. equity market capitalization over the completion of this market cycle (a decline that would not even bring historically reliable valuation metrics below their long-term historical norms), would produce an expected loss of over $25 trillion in U.S. total private net worth."
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170327.htm

The takeaway from all of this is; nobody will have any money to spend.
The dollar is sinking. It remains to see just how far, https://dailyreckoning.com/dows-drop...ominous-chart/
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:45 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Cryptocurrencies  (Abstraction Squared)

"expected loss of over $25 trillion in U.S. total private net worth."
This is notional wealth. You can't actually handle it over to another person. If $25 trillion can just disappear, why can't $26 trillion disappear? With a cascade of default, what instrument is going to have value? What will inspire confidence?
Exeter's Pyramid illustrates the preference of value, The Exter Inverted Pyramid - A Refresher | Zero Hedge

Paper money is there just below gold and quite a ways from diamonds. Paper money is a demand note,,, a bearer bond. It has a huge utility value.

Where, exactly do cyrpto-currencies fit in?
"What is money? and why do we need it? In this section, I will show why any free society is simply a system to organize a division of labor and cooperate for the purpose of achieving an energy surplus (also known as prosperity). Money is simply the signal which most closely mirrors the state of energy surplus or prosperity. The contiguous and growing stock of Money is the sum total of human prosperity"
"Given enough time, the humans will always figure out the need to organize into a cooperative system (society) that maximizes the usage of energy in order to withstand the forces of entropy."

"If the system of accounting fails and there is a loss of energy surplus, the society will succumb to entropy and will fail on its primary objective: reproduction."
"Throughout the course of history we have seen many attempts at forms of money which have succeeded in being a unit of account, medium of exchange, or both, but we have never witnessed anything other than precious metals withstand time as a store of value while simultaneously being a unit of account and medium of exchange."
"Over the course of time, however, entropy will easily render abstract accounting systems as obsolete. Just as an empty sack cant stand upright, an accounting system based on abstract and individual human qualities will fail."

"What is so special about these precious metals is that they are a product of nature. They are not abstractions which can change with time. "
"It is no surprise then that only 8 years following the creation of bitcoin, we now have 669 cryptocurrencies. These cryptocurrencies are presently valued at $23.5 Billion and trade nearly $900 million a day. But what are these abstractions ultimately achieving aside from enabling speculative fervor?"

" But their being a store of value will always rely on the exchangeable value rising requiring the continuous inflow of capital at an increasing rate of change over time."
"Since 2009, Bitcoins share of the total market value of cryptocurrencies has dropped from 100% to 72.5%. We have seen entropy take its toll on the original rigid rules of Bitcoin "
"n this essay, I have set out to prove that money must follow the natural order of things and that abstract concepts of money not inexorably linked to nature will inevitably fail as money."

"onversely, blockchain and cryptocurrencies, being a human abstraction, have no value at rest. There is no need to store them for the future aside from two potential catalysts:"
https://medium.com/@roysebag/the-nat...l-aad5f9f8cf89
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Old 03-30-2017, 04:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Automation wasn't a problem until it took YOUR job

Industry invented the forklift and lots of people got jobs building, repairing and operating forklifts. BUT, lots of stevedores lost their jobs. The State put the stevedore on the dole and tried to retrain him. Well, he was only a stevedore for a reason. Industry and finance complained loudly about having to pay welfare to the stevedore. But, what was he going to retrain for that was within his limited cerebral powers? Industry also complained loudly about retirees.

There was little worry about automation taking the jobs away in the upper loop. Times are changing.
Ray Dalio runs the worlds largest hedge fund. He is changing to automation.
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...nce-management
Sberbank has "the bank had over 137 million retail clients and over 1.1 million corporate clients" It is automating it's loan approval process with AI.

"Just today, BlackRock announced a plan to consolidate $30 billion of their actively managed mutual fund activities with funds that are managed by algorithms and quantitative models."
Stockpickers refer to themselves as "big swinging dicks". It's no great wonder that a few of them have destroyed their employer bank.
Martin Armstrong had $3 trillion under management. He and his program, Socrates were beating the pants off the New York banks so, they had him thrown in jail.
The finance sector is more than tired of prima-donas placing bets and destroying banks.

The whole finance sector will have to pull away from human decisions,,, they are just too ill-informed.
The best, new studies show clearly that the robots are taking a lot of jobs;
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...f+Richter&mk=1
Our ENTIRE financial collapse is centered around the lack of wages and purchasing power. Gov hands out more and more debt money for welfare. GOV creates more and more make-work jobs. Trump is a huge threat to the practitioners of these make-work jobs.

Headlines;
Trump budget expected to seek historic cuts to federal workforce
Trump Budget Would Abolish 19 Agencies, Cut Thousands of Federal Jobs
President Trump wants Jared Kushner to lead a new White House office aimed at overhauling the federal bureaucracy and infusing the executive branch with ideas from the "business world."

The whole point of GOV is inefficiency. GOV takes up the slack for those who just can't make it in the private sector.
Cutting all these gravy jobs will also reduce aggregate spending power.

Automation has made big inroads in the productive sector. Automation is making huge inroads in the finance sector. Soon, automation will make huge inroads in the GOV sector.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2...ae-government/
Once the white-collar jobs disappear en masse, the upper loop will finally recognize that automation is definitely a problem. I can't stretch my imagination far enough to come up with a job niche that would be compatible with a redundant GOV worker.
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Old 03-31-2017, 04:23 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Pay all of your life,,, collect when you hit 80

"In 2010, British women got their state pension at 60 and men got theirs at 65. By October 2020, both sexes will have to wait until they are 66. By 2028, the age will rise again, to 67. And the creep will continue. By the early 2060s, people will still be working in their 70s, but according to research, we will all need to keep working into our 80s if we want to enjoy the same standard of retirement as our parents.
This is what a world without retirement looks like. "
https://www.theguardian.com/membersh...out-retirement

It would be nice if you could save more for retirement but, there is a long list of taxes that you must pay.
What taxes you pay - Which?

It's not much different on this side of the pond. Keep in mind that the IRS has millions of unpaid employees; "this year Americans will spend more than 7 billion hours preparing their taxes "
A List Of 97 Taxes Americans Pay Every Year | Zero Hedge

Total tax percentage potentially paid by the well above average US citizen, 2005 - 53.2% *
Total tax percentage potentially paid by the well above average US citizen, 2013 est. - 58.5% *
Note also that the Tax Foundation's numbers are closer to 30% for the actual "average" US citizen,
How much tax do we really pay?
The good Lord, through his proxies, the church, only wants 10% but, Uncle Sam needs a lot more.

In 2015, Texas told the Federal Reserve to hand over their $ 1billion in State gold. The FED, of course, made a bunch of excuses and never sent the gold.
Devvy -*Texas Legislature: Historic Bill Now Introduced

Russia and China are hard at work to eliminate the U.S. dollar as the prime trade currency, http://russia-insider.com/en/russia-...s-gold/ri19355
The average politician is an idiot who rose above his peers because he was more corrupt than his peers. The politicians were clearly told and proven that the EU would NOT work. Their answer,,,, we'll figure it out later.
http://www.politico.eu/article/12-pe...edith-cresson/

Here is some good writing comparing the Second Foundation to our current situation. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...pire-crumbling
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Old 04-01-2017, 03:45 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Chinese real estate,,, bigger then Krakatoa, stock market, bigger than Mons Olympus

The private credit bubble in China just keeps growing. You would think that the Chinese would figure out that the bubble was just too big to be sustainable.
" two thirds of these new Chinese trading accounts belong to investors who dont have so much as a high school degree."
"What is so unusual about the Chinese is that they save just over half their income! And the top 10% save over two-thirds!
And where do those savings go? Mostly into real estate!
Chinas home ownership rate is 90%. Its just 64% in the U.S. even though were much wealthier and credit-worthy.
Thats because home ownership is a staple of their culture. A Chinese man has no chance of getting a date or getting laid unless he owns a home no matter how small."

"Chinese households have 74.7% of their assets in real estate vs. 27.9% in the U.S. which helps explain why theirs is one of the greatest real estate bubbles in modern history!

But the key here is when that bubble bursts, it will cause an unimaginable implosion of Chinese wealth. In one fell swoop, three-quarters of their assets will get crushed!

And just how big of a bubble is it? In Shanghai, real estate is up 6.6 times since 2000. Thats
560%."
"By my estimates, theyve built up their infrastructure, real estate, and industrial capacity 12 to 15 years ahead of demand." "As for us, remember that China led the global collapse in 2008. The last bubble saw a six times gain in just two years and a 72% crash in just one."
China?s Real Problem Isn?t Stocks ? It?s Real Estate! | Economy and Markets
China has to put the brakes on new credit creation. BUT, if they put the brakes on, the previous debt doesn't get serviced.

Comments;
" Unitron
Mar 31, 2017 at 8:33 am

There are many problem areas ready to implode, but I think China is first on the list. The China Interbank Rate is the one to watch, because its the first indicator of what will be a worldwide liquidity crisis, and coincidentally, plummeting stock markets all over the world."

Paul
Mar 31, 2017 at 9:30 pm

I agree. China is borrowing as much per month as the US does per year. But China and India have the same problem. Too many people. China went from burning 1.1 billion tons of coal a year in 1997 to 4.6 billion today. Even a drastic cut, 30% only takes them to a level 3X higher than is sustainable. I have a good friend that imports food to Bejing. Theyre killing each other. Eggs and rice made out if plastic, baby milk filled with arsenic. The country hasnt a shred of morality. 1/4th of the population still $hits in a hole. People north of Shanghai wear masks all the time. The country is going into a self genocide. The funny thing is, its worse in India. "

Corporate profits are a bit higher BUT, margin debt is really crazy;
"Margin debt reached all time highs in February at $528b.
just for perspective :It hit $381b in 2007 and $278b in 2000
Last Two Times After Our Dear Government Reported Data Like This, Stocks Crashed | Wolf Street
Supposedly, we have extreme consumer confidence. Margin Debt Hits Record High Coinciding With Extreme Consumer Confidence: Analysts Say 'Don't Worry' | Mike Shedlock | Safehaven.com
Yep, we have lots of confidence,,, as long as the plastic doesn't melt from overuse.
"Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve, ValuePenguin found that the average credit card debt for households that carry a balance is a shocking $16,048"
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...debt/91431058/

True growth has ended and the party is coming to an end;
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...using-bubbles/
BUT, we are in better shape than China,,, depending on what you are looking at.
"The industry is leading gains in Chinas $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits, the most expensive level among global peers. When the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000, technology companies in the U.S. had a mean price-to-earnings ratio of 156."
"Valuations in China are now higher than those in the U.S. at the height of the dot-com bubble just about any way you slice them. The average Chinese technology stock has a price-to-earnings ratio 41 percent above that of U.S. peers in 2000, while the median valuation is twice as expensive"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-china-prices
So, the Chinese stock market blows all to hell. The margin calls cause humongous redemptions and investors try to liquidate real estate to meet margin calls. This crashes RE and nobody knows what anything is worth. They put away their checkbooks waiting for the dust to settle. Meanwhile the margin calls go unpaid. The entire stock market freezes up and nobody knows who is solvent.
Since nobody knows who is insolvent, nobody wants to loan and rates go up. LIBOR is already rising. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/libor-pains
"The China Interbank Rate is the one to watch, because its the first indicator of what will be a worldwide liquidity crisis"
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Old 04-02-2017, 02:41 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Le Pen will help the EU kill itself

The Eurocrats have no contingency plan if Le Pen wins the election. They are crapping their pants;
For EU, French vote is existential – POLITICO
"We are witnessing an all-out war in France. The banks have been told not to lend any money to Le Pen to save Brussels. Just about every other party is starting to throw their support behind Macron. The former Socialist, PM Valls, now supports Macron because the socialists are dead in the water. Macron was a bureaucrat in the socialist government. He certainly offers nothing but doom for France or the euro going forward for if he is elected. Brussels will keep on going as it has until the whole thing goes belly up which looks to be in 2018."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...nch-elections/

If various States leave the EU, their debts will automatically grow enormously; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...previous-debt/

"There is your fatal EU flaw. The whole common interest idea is just a sales pitch, always was. Which worked fine in times of growth. But take a look now. Theres nothing left. The rich north has used the poorer south to transfer its losses to. Its not a union, its old-fashioned colonialism."
"The EU has that trouble, and it will have much more of it. The only way out of that trouble is for the Union to dismantle itself."
"Please dont get me wrong: of course there are tons of things the EU has done that are great, and right, and all that. But its the power structure that will inevitably kill it no matter what else it does that actually works. And that structure is beyond redemption."
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...ig-fatal-flaw/

Armstrong; "This is why we must crash and burn. You simply cannot reason with those in government to recognize that they are the problem. Thus, history constantly repeats and taxation is the driving force behind revolution historically in all cultures."
"We are faced with tax revolts throughout Western Culture. Governments are all broke. Of course, they will never consider reform. The answer is always just grab more and more money from the people. This is why they are moving to eliminate cash to prevent people from evading taxes. This is not going to end nicely. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...to-tax-people/
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Old 04-02-2017, 03:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Pension,,, you must be joking

The FED can pump money into the upper loop but "trickle down" doesnt work if wages are falling. The FED can pay for lots of stocks but, they can't make earnings look good. https://blogs-images.forbes.com/mich....jpg?width=960
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#5c7a2d3a5c7a

"Meanwhile, on the political front, the United States is descending into what can best be called a second civil war.

This time its not North versus South. Now its President Trump and a relatively small band of top officials versus Democrats, global elites, mainstream media, mainstream Republicans, the permanent government, holdover Obama appointees, and Obama himself."
"Then there is the real possibility of a government shutdown on April 28, when the current continuing resolution, or CR, that authorizes government spending expires. "
"If Congress cannot renew the CR due to infighting on peripheral issues, such as funding for Planned Parenthood, then the government will shut down. Since this is not priced into the stock market, it will come as a shock and possibly the catalyst for a stock market correction of 10% or more."
https://dailyreckoning.com/markets-set-fall/

"According to Bloomberg, unfunded pension obligations on a national basis have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007″
"And of course that $1.9 trillion number is not actually the real number.

That same Bloomberg article goes on to admit that if honest math was being used that the real number would actually be closer to 6 trillion dollars"
" According to Dave Kranzler, if the stock market were to fall by 10 percent or more and stay there for a number of months, that would cause every single public pension fund to blow up.
"The commercial mortgage market is about $3 trillion, of which about $1 trillion has been packaged into asset-backed securities and stuffed into yield-starved pension funds. Without a doubt, the same degree of fraud of has been used to concoct the various tranches in these CMBS trusts that was employed during the mid-2000s mortgage/housing bubble, with full cooperation of the ratings agencies then and now. Just like in 2008, with the derivatives that have been layered into the mix, the embedded leverage in the commercial mortgage/CMBS/REIT model is the financial equivalent of the Fukushima nuclear power plant collapse."

"But the coming stock market crash is going to hit pension funds even harder. Stocks are ridiculously overvalued right now, and if they simply return to normal valuations, pension funds are going to lose trillions of dollars.
We are talking about a financial tsunami that will be absolutely unprecedented in our history, and yet investors continue to act like the party can last forever. "
The Ticking Time Bomb That Will Wipe Out Virtually Every Pension Fund In America

"Social Security paid out $905 billion last year, almost one quarter of the U.S. government's expenditures"
Scary social security statistic-commentary
"Almost half of US jobs could soon be done by a robot or computer, according to Oxford University researchers."
"Longer lives mean more old people, while lower fertility rates mean relatively fewer people are born to replace them"
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2017...next-100-years

So, the demographic crash gets far worse. Automation takes far more jobs. Nobody is working to fund public pensions. Private pensions are all broke. The looming stock market crash will wipe out the pension funds. ZIRP is wiping out almost everything. The sovereign debt crash will wipe out GOV spending.
It almost seems like all of this was planned.
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Old 04-03-2017, 02:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Squeeze them until the system blows

The State taxed the snot out of everybody,,,,, because the State NEVER has enough money. The bankers inflated the money supply because the bankers never have enough money. The increased taxes and price-inflation severely reduced the money available to the middle class. Rather than falling into abject poverty, we cut back on reproduction. The fall in the population meant that consumption and taxation fell also. The State injected tons of money into the stock and bond markets. This raised valuations and produced capital-gains taxes.
It did not raise earnings because earnings are related to consumption, not money injections. The CBs are buying more and more stocks to keep valuations rising. They can't stop. Price / earnings just keep going up. Eventually, fear returns to the markets. Margin debt is astronomically high and any little blip could wipe out everybody.
The CBs are starting to reduce liquidity; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../27/mh%201.jpg

Now is the time to buy tangible assets and get out of instruments; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...20assets_0.jpg
The current rally was kickstarted by China and China is overblown all out of control.
Prepare For "Manias, Panics And Crashes": An Ominous Warning From Bank Of America | Zero Hedge

The States(S) see this coming. Here is an excellent article on the global taxman
Is the Global Taxman Coming? | Wolf Street

"The proposals and ideas are all cloaked in positive soundbites, with words like development, inclusiveness and justice particularly prominent. Its also largely true that in an increasingly globalized economy, the only realistic hope national governments have of tapping into the gargantuan and ever increasing fortunes of the worlds wealthiest individuals and corporations is through cooperating with other national governments and closing down tax havens."
"Its more likely that the main targets of the global tax crackdown are not the worlds biggest banks and corporations but the proceeds of the informal economy, the fastest growing part of the global economy that is estimated to represent as much as 45% of total global economic activity.

By creating a global cross-reference of everything that moves in the financial world, and by implementing increasingly draconian measures to limit the use of cash-in-fist while promoting the use of digital alternatives, governments will be able to track every penny people earn, spend, or save."
The informal economy is growing rapidly so, the State wants to tax the snot out of it.

4/03 China has its worst-ever start to a year for defaults Bloomberg It had to come eventually.
4/03 Inflation finally starting to hit healthy levels Mother Jones No mention of wage inflation.
4/02 Consumer spending slows, but inflation is rising Reuters No kidding !! Do you think that there is a connection?
4/02 UK households savings fall to record low Guardian REALLY,,,, you spent all your money?
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Old 04-04-2017, 01:58 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Currencies vs equities,,, Armstrong is a REAL doomer

Up is down: understanding equities. It is absolutely amazing how many paid analysts get it completely wrong.
"The greatest problem in the traditional analytical world when it comes to currencies is the bulk of these analysts cannot wrap their head around that a currency is not a share price. They talk as if it is a share price and the decline in the dollar would be bearish"
"When analyzing a currency, it is OPPOSITE of a a share price. Up is really down and down is really up. What is stunning, is how all these analysts keep taking about the dollar crash as if that would be bearish."
"If you want to create the worst possible outcome and really disrupt the world economy, you need the dollar to soar to new highs NOT decline."
"Europe will be wiping its brow if Le Pen is defeated in France on May 7th. "

Side note; France knows that they are being screwed, over the muslim problems. There are huge riots in Paris but, MSM hides this fact hoping that the violence won't sway more voters to Le Pen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6oQ2JcMA40&t=100s
Back to Armstrong, "Brussels will wipe its brow and think it dodged the bullet and this nasty age of populism will come to an end. They will not change course, proclaim they were right all along, and then push forward to the federalization of Europe until their political bubble bursts in the near future.
The dollar is by no means finished. The ONLY way to undermine the world economy is to see a STRONG DOLLAR, not a weak one.

The May target is still be BIG target for this year. That may indeed be influenced by the French elections on May 7th."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ro-up-or-down/
Keep in mind that; capital flees troubled times / markets and goes to the jurisdiction that has the most respect for private property rights. If that is perceived to be America, the dollar will go up.

"Everywhere we turn, politicians are abusing their power relentlessly because the global economy is moving against their best plans. "
"Paraguays politicians voted after the Senate secretly voted for a constitutional amendment that would allow President Horacio Cartes to run for re-election opening the door to dictatorship once again. Protesters stormed the government building last week and set it on fire."
"We are looking at the total chaos of politics engulfing the entire world. Yet, this is not doom and gloom. This is an opportunity to reconstruct a world the correct way for once. We see this storm of political-change in the USA with the continued protest against Trump, which will eventually turn very violent. " Beam me up, Scotty.

" We can expect Europe to come to a head in 2018. The future is dictated by the corruption and collapse of government. Trump and BREXIT were merely the effect of symptoms of the decay in government. We are past the point of no return. There is no going back. "
"The storm of political-change is upon us. The cards have been dealt. Its time to turn them over one at a time. No one will be able to fix or stop this trend. Since World War II, politicians have ruled only for their self-interest. They have made promises that will never be kept and far too many people have believed in them. The system is just not sustainable. Revision is coming. Its up to us to understand what this even is and do what we can to push the coming change in the right direction. Your friend will listen, but only when they see the collapse smack them square in the face."
Beam me up NOW Scotty.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ing-the-world/

"If a government goes bust, it is the private assets that survive."
"Historically government ONLY defaults when people no longer buy debt. Its always just a Ponzi Scheme. All governments issue new debt to retire the old. They do not pay off the debt. So the USA will NEVER default on its debt by itself. "
"Intra-governmental Holdings of US Federal debt are rarely ever talked about, which includes 230 other federal agencies holding US debt totaling $5.554 trillion, or almost 28% of the entire federal debt. "
"Social Security and all retirement/pension funds, hold almost 50% of the national debt."
"The USA has the biggest economy and the most viable. Yes, if USA defaulted on its debt it would be lights out for the entire world."
"However, current and future retirees would be hurt the most and that would provoke civil unrest like you have never seen."
"The risk is by no means that the USA defaults. The risk is that the defaults start not in the core economy, but it ALWAYS begins from the outside and spreads inward to attack the core. The foreign bond defaults in 1931 is what created the Great Depression and it did not NOT because the US defaulted, but because the USA adopted AUSTERITY and allowed deflation to dominate the same mistake made in Europe today."
"These people have the guns and can write any law at any given moment to pretend they did not default. "
"The real default will come by masking it with war, they will extend debt, call a moratorium on debt payments, and most likely alter the world monetary system swapping all currency for something new that is electronic."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...en-v-equities/

Kunstler has a good writeup on the screw-job that we call the medical industry; Racket of Rackets - KUNSTLER
I think that Le Pen will get in. Possibly, they will steal the election with fraud like they did with the Scottish referendum. ANYTHING is fair if they can stop the union from disintegrating. There is much speculation that Italy will be the next State to exit the EU. France got heavily screwed by forced muslim resettlement and wants to leave. Sweden is getting a huge screw job from the same source. Sweden is thinking about getting OUT; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-leave-EU.html
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Old 04-04-2017, 03:19 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Free money to save the banks but, kill everything else

By using credit, we pull consumption forward. Eventually, we reach a "hole" in demand because we already spent today's money, yesterday. The auto industry had now reached this "hole" in demand.
https://matasii.com/the-auto-industr...a-cliff-again/
Once you start pushing cheap credit to stimulate demand, you can never stop. Just like the student-loan problem, once you supply cheap credit, prices just seem to magically rise way up.
"Vehicles prices since 2008 are dramatically higher. A $28,000 vehicle in 2008 is now $50-$55,000"
https://matasii.com/the-auto-industr...a-cliff-again/
"In the fall of 2015 we released a video study entitled: "The Coming Global Auto Abyss - Too Much Supply, Too Many Brands; Combine with Too Much Credit!". We concluded that low interest rate monetary policy for the auto industry was like handing crack cocaine to a drug addict."

Here is a long, detailed report from Hussman Funds about debt, growth, unemployment and GDP. First off, GDP is just a measure of the money in the system at any given time. FED GOV spends about 24% of the GDP so, it can warp any picture when it wants to. This article talks a lot about unemployment and slack in the labor market. It uses the GOV figures for unemployment as the basis for much of it's projections.
The figures from the BLS just aren't believable. Shadowstats has more believable numbers.
Alternate Unemployment Charts

51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. 49 % or so, pay no income tax. 43 million are on food stamps. The BLS figures of 4.7% unemployment just aren't believable when compared to the numbers on poverty.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...conomic-growth
The worse the economy does, the more money the CB has to pump in. The GOV spends 72% of the GDP in France.

Mario Draghi is claiming success with his stimulus program in Europe where the claimed unemployment is only 10.5%. Central GOV has pumped in trillions of Euros into the bond market to free up investment into the stock markets. Central GOV has pumped trillions of Euros into equities. What Draghi has actually done is to prove that; the markets can only survive with free-money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-eight-years

Many of the people who seek employment in GOV do so because they aren't smart enough to compete in the private sector. GOV pension programs are managed by these same idiots. They continue to assume that pension funds will return 7.6% for the rest of time. This just doesnt happen in a ZIRP world. Previously, GOV pension funds invest in very safe stuff like GOV bonds. When it became painfully obvious, that ZIRP was killing everything that they held, they went to private money managers for a solution. The money managers recommended that the pension funds moved their investments to the hedge funds. The money managers charged HUGE fees.

"But those funds have performed abysmally. Meanwhile, those managers have siphoned off as much as 60% of their gains to fees."
The pension funds continue to assume that high rates of returns will be back soon. In reality, they are underfunded by $5 trillion. They won't admit this because they would have to "induce" the taxpayer to triple his "contribution" to GOV retirement funds.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...?siteid=YAHOOB

Armstrong is probably correct in his statement that nobody expects to cash out their treasury bonds. They just buy them for the interest income. The federal deficit can go way up if nobody cashes out. With ZIRP, there is little pain to servicing the debt. If the FED pulls away from ZIRP, FED GOV must cut back. BUT, with ZIRP, there is little incentive to buy GOV debt in the first place.
The State wants enough currency inflation that it produces a <2%> price inflation. The price inflation forces investors to keep their money in circulation to protect purchasing power. If price inflation goes too high, low-yield Treasury debt is not attractive. If price inflation is too high, the majority of people can't afford to live. The FED must increase the money supply to send free money to speculators in the hope that some of this money will trickle down.
Previously, the magic 2% number was tolerable to bankers and workers. With the long slide in wages, the 2% figure works for bankers and speculators. BUT, it does not work for wage-earners. With ZIRP, money is bouncing all around looking for return / earnings. This has caused price inflation that is impoverishing the wage-earner. The CB will try to save the parasitic investor class until the wage earner is destitute. The State will try to save the destitute portion of the population until it goes broke too.
Armstrong calls for a crash in sovereign debt.
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Old 04-05-2017, 04:26 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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J. Dimon.... don't mess with the food supply

Jamie demon has a report that is part BS and part true.
"Among other things, Dimon observes:
Over last 16 years, U.S. has spent trillions on wars when it could have been investing that money productively. Who's idea was that?
Healthcare costs are essentially twice as much per person vs most other developed nations. You can thank financialization of the health care industry.
Labor force participation is too low.50% of the cost of everything is for finance. You can thank the bankers for that. We aren't competitive in the markets.
"From 1948 to 2000, real per capita GDP grew 2.3%; from 2000 to 2016, it grew 1%. Had it grown at 2.3% instead of 1% in those 17 years, our GDP per capita would be 24%, or more than $12,500 per person higher than it is."
Maybe killary shouldn't have given most favored nation trading status to China.

"men ages 25-54, youll see that we have a serious problem. The chart below shows that in America, the participation rate for that cohort has gone from 96% in 1968 to a little over 88% today. This is way below labor force participation in almost every other developed nation."
"If the work participation rate for this group went back to just 93% the current average for the other developed nations approximately 10 million more people would be working in the United States. Some other highly disturbing facts include: Fifty-seven percent of these non-working males are on disability, and fully 71% of todays youth (ages 1724) are ineligible for the military due to a lack of proper education (basic reading or writing skills) or health issues (often obesity or diabetes)."

"The American Society of Civil Engineers releases a report every four years examining current infrastructure conditions and needs the 2017 report card gave us a grade of D+. Another interesting and distressing fact: The United States has not built a major airport in more than 20 years. China, on the other hand, has built 75 new civilian airports in the last 10 years alone."
"By some estimates, approximately $2 trillion is spent on regulations annually (which is approximately $15,000 per U.S. household annually). " Bureaucrats need love too. (and money)
Jamie Dimon Warns "Something Is Wrong" With The US | Zero Hedge
We made up for all these failings by having TONS of wars.
The public pension sector want to squeeze even more blood out of Dallas, Dallas Mayor Pulls Support For "Massive Taxpayer Bailout" Of Police Pension | Zero Hedge
Armstrong; "I have been warning that we are headed directly into the collapse of socialism; not capitalism, simply because politicians have been bribing peoples votes with all sorts of promises they never planned on providing." "The core of that crash and burn in socialism is pensions. The scheme of pensions when blended with politics is a lethal combination. Politicians are NEVER prosecuted for fraud"

"The Freedom Caucus is out in never-never-land. While yes we are dealing with a debt crisis, their solution of blocking the debt ceiling increases and repealing Obamacare is frivolous. Why? Because it is just totally impractical. To block any increase in debt is to invite Big Bang, social unrest, and the high probability that the USA will be pushed into civil war"
"These types of measures will accomplish only bloodshed. We must begin the process of restructuring the entire system. Blocking payments and new debt is inviting the confrontation. It is not a realistic solution. Obamacare is going to blow up if it is not reformed and you are hurting the next generation between the Obamacare Tax and the Clinton scheme to deny them the right to go bankrupt of worthless degrees.

It is now just a question of when with Big Bang set in motion, will the whole Socialistic mess erupt and how will the markets respond?"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ucus-big-bang/
"The USA has the biggest economy and the most viable. Yes, if USA defaulted on its debt it would be lights out for the entire world."

So, will the freedom caucus prevail and block new debt creation? I'm starting to think that the hardliners will hamstring the whole debt ceiling and budget battle until it is too late. If they insist on austerity, EVERYTHING will be much worse. Here is a headline to ponder.
4/04 Austerity-crushed Greek households cutting food purchases National Herald
Venezuela ranks number one on the misery index. Food riots are getting more and more common. Food prices have risen 800% recently. Prices haven't actually risen. The Bolivar has fallen. The black market exchange rate is about 2500 Bolivars per dollar.
Socialists just try to support TOO MANY people. " Venezuelas regulation-happy bureaucracy constituted 15 percent of the labor force. "
" more than half of Venezuelans were on the public dole in one form or another,"
"With most of the opposition out of the way, Chvez began implementing his hard-left ideology. He nationalized the oil industry, in the process firing 20,000 state oil company employees and replacing them with political cronies."
The socialists ALWAYS put their incompetent cronies in charge. Oil production fell way down,,, big surprise.
https://www.thenewamerican.com/world...use-of-horrors
Chaves' war on everyone he considered to be bourgeois. The Chvez regime, McMaken averred, intentionally crushed even the middle and working classes. He pointed to the example of a small-time butcher in Caracas whom Chvez declared a class traitor and a tool of international capitalists; the butcher, along with many other small business owners and retailers, was arrested and tried for various capitalist crimes.

Do you become stupid when you embrace socialism OR, is it a prerequisite that you must be stupid ahead of the poisonous embrace?
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Old 04-05-2017, 03:14 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Chicago..... Brokerage accounts

Chicago; "If tax hikes worked, Illinois revenue would be up, not down. But Illinoisans are voting with their feet. On March 25, 2017, I noted Cook County Illinois Suffers Largest Population Drop In Entire US.

On May 18, 2016, I noted Illinois State Workers, Highest Paid in Nation, Demand 11.5 to 29% Hikes."
"Illinois Revenue Freefall: Fiscal Year-to-Date -8.1% and Worsening"
"Compared to last year, February income taxes are down 12.1%; Sales taxes are down 7.5%, and public utility taxes are down 34.3%."
That is why we need world socialism. That way, nobody can escape the rapacious taxman.
https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/04/illi...enue-freefall/

Stupidity isn't limited to just socialists; https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...s-stupid-does/
Here is another excellent article about both current conditions and, the state of the big banks; https://dailyreckoning.com/three-pre...repeating-now/

The crooked banks work hard so that you won't withdraw your money in cash. If you just shift your money to another bank well, that's OK. The TBTF banks control so much of banking, the money has to stay with them in one form or another. When you deposit money in the bank, it is an unsecured loan to the bank. They sweep accounts and put your money to work, usually in the money markets.

There is an alternative. Brokerage accounts are segregated by federal law. The money just sits there. Here is a good explanation page; https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ur-broker.aspx
Here is an article, probably from somebody in the banking industry that explains why you shouldn't use a brokerage account; Why no one should use brokerage accounts | PBS NewsHour
If the banks pay no interest on savings accounts, there is no advantage to banks over brokerage accounts.

In the coming stock market meltdown, it will be interesting to see which of the 2 systems attract the capital.
If the money flows to brokerage accounts, the banks may go bust. Several years ago, FED GOV gave the banks a few $ trillion of excess reserves, just in case. The FED pays them interest on these reserves so that they have free income floated to them.
At the same time, the banks have valued their assets at fairy tale valuations. It remains to be seen if the freebies can sustain them through the downturn.
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Old 04-07-2017, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Private debt falling, SOMEBODY has to make up the difference

Part of the reason for massive increases in corporate and public debt is; consumers have cut back on debt growth.
"Private debt as a share of GDP fell by almost 30 percentage points in the UK between 2008 and 2015, according to the IMF, representing the biggest reduction in the advanced world."
Debt can never shrink so, public debt has to increase. Global debt explodes at &#39;eye-watering&#39; pace to hit £170 trillion

Here are some great charts. Note that chart #6 shows public debt growing to compensate for the fall in private debt; http://www.yardeni.com/pub/fofchrt.pdf
Chart # 67 shows that capital inflows have gone negative. there are lots of good charts here but, they can be deceiving. They show household wealth rising steadily on chart # 46. That might be true but, only if you include all the rich households.
50% Of Americans Live Payday-To-Payday; 33% Can't Write A $500 Emergency Check | Zero Hedge
"37% of those aged 21-34 in Q4'16 stated they were likely to default on one loan over the next 12 months, up from 27% in Q3"

"The IIF said total debt levels, including household, government and corporate debt, climbed by more than $70 trillion over the last 10 years to a record high of $215 trillion (173 trillion) in 2016 - or the equivalent of 325pc of global gross domestic product (GDP)."
The danger line is said to be at 90% (Reinhart and Rogoff).
Global debt explodes at &#39;eye-watering&#39; pace to hit £170 trillion

It is rumored that stock valuations are soon to crash, Cudmore: "It's Now A Matter Of When, Not If, Markets Break Down" | Zero Hedge Not a particularly new rumor.

Somehow, tax collections are at an all-time high. 96 million Americans are not in the labor force. As long as GOV continues to pump liquidity into the markets, taxes go up.

"Which leads to three inescapable conclusions:

1) Interest rates can never rise because rolling over this much debt at historically-normal rates would blow up the budgets of both the developed and developing worlds.

2) The only solution if you can call it that is massive currency devaluation to make these debts manageable.

3) Since the debt binge has apparently gone parabolic, the reckoning is fairly close at hand. 2018 might be one for the history books. "
https://dollarcollapse.com/debt/soar...-deleveraging/
Yep, #2 seems to be in the works.
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