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Old 02-15-2017, 03:46 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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hand grenade from Greece,,, the sinking ship

British and American voters tossed hand grenades into the political establishment. There is a great fear that French voters will do the same. BUT, tossing a hand grenade into the political establishment does the same thing to the bond market. It has been claimed that Trump has tossed a Molotov cocktail rather than a hand grenade.

Germany suffered the Weimar hyperinflation because their finance minister was hoping to deflate the value of all the debt that they owed. John Maynard Keynes was an observer at the reparations débâcle. He told them that they had planted the seeds of the next war by crushing Germany.
The current German establishment has an inbred fear of hyperinflation that can not be rationalized away. The feces-for-brains politicians insist on austerity for Greece. Austerity has reduced the Greek GDP by 25%. There is no possible way for them to repay loans from irresponsible German banks.

"Greek people who suffer for their politicians playing games with Goldman Sachs to get into the Euro at all costs.
However, the euro ministers reject a debt cut before the Bundestagswahl 2017 once again concerned for Merkel’s reelection bid. In other words, they fear that any debt forgiveness will mean Merkel loses her election but without debt forgiveness the euro will crack.
Not even a single austerity measure has led to the stabilization of the Greek budget and the deflation that has been unleashed is a human tragedy all because Merkel DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE GERMAN HYPERINFLATION."

"Forcing the Greek people to pay to keep the Euro together, which benefited Germany at the expense of Greece, has run its course. Greece will have no choice but to default all because Merkel has continued to put her personal polls ahead of Europe.
Greece forgave the debts that Germany owed it after World War II to help Germany get back on its feet. Merkel REFUSED to listen because that was her promise that Greece would repay."

"Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has completely failed the Greek people. He was elected to exit the EU but instead he has wiped out his country trying to stay in the Eurozone. Pensions have been attacked 11 times since the crisis began in 2010. The very day Greece asked the IMF for help was precisely on the day of our target – Pi from the 2007.15 high. " Armstrong nails it again.

So, the banks irresponsibly loaned money to Greece knowing that it was a serial defaulter. That was after Goldman Sachs finagled the books to get Greece into the EU. Merkel figures that she has the upper hand. Alexis Tsipras screwed over the Greeks. It would be complete and total chaos if the Greeks tried to do an overnight change back to the drachma.

Evidently, they have a plan "B".
"He asserted that Athens is so desperate it is prepared to tie itself to the dollar on the same terms as the likes of Puerto Rico if it means being able to quit the eurozone.
And Prof Malloch said German leaders including Angela Merkel were “freaked out” at the humiliating possibility of losing Greece to a rival currency, which would be a devastating blow to the EU project.

Tying Greece temporarily to the US dollar would be one way for the authorities in Athens to ensure that its currency does not completely tank if it leaves the eurozone, as would likely occur with a reissued drachma.
However critics may argue the country would be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire, as it would simply be trading one currency it has no control over for another. "
Ah yes, the critics. The critics are totally FREAKED OUT that Greece would just default and tell them to go piss up a rope.
Eurozone crisis - Greece could ditch euro for US dollar claims Trump man Ted Malloch | Politics | News | Express.co.uk

More from Armstrong.
" Do not put equities in the same boat with bonds. The ship is sinking, but that is concerned with debt – not equity. Keep in mind that the collapse of a financial system has historically unfolded to different degrees. If we are talking about a Dark Age, then you are into the Mad Max situation. Then the only thing that has value is food – not even gold. "
In order for tangible assets like stocks, gold, art, antiquities, etc. to survive, the fundamental infrastructure must survive. That means there must be ample food for gold to have any value whatsoever. So you must stop short of the Mad Max event for anything tangible to have a safe haven value."

"Therefore, if we are only talking about a reset of the world financial system, then tangible assets retain value that becomes translated into the new currency. Hence, equities will survive, government debt and currency will not"
Disagree; currency has a critical utility value in the lower loop. Bonds do NOT.

"this is a battle shaping up for the future; the final conflict over Marxism, which began with the fall of Communism in 1989. This final battle began 26 years from 1989.95."
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Old 02-16-2017, 02:17 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Educated idiots

Reading available articles on economics is like reading literature on free energy. There is so much bogus info, it makes you wonder why people bother.
Jeff Berwick is a gold bug and a smart guy. He says that Trump should default. That's like saying; drain the water out of the reactor and pull out the graphite rods.
America imports "Total crude oil imports averaged 8.1 million b/d in November, which was an increase of 446,000 b/d from imports during October 2016. "
So we blow the bond market, and pay for oil with WHAT?
TRUMP SHOULD DEFAULT ON DEBT | Jeff Berwick | Silver Doctors

Michael Pento;
"In the short-term a successful implementation of Trumponomics equates to a stronger dollar, higher bond yields and rising borrowing costs."
He actually sells a news letter
Stronger dollar: nobody buys our exports.
Higher bond yields: Debt-service costs go through the roof.
Rising borrowing costs: This would wipe out the entire corporate sector. Only 2 companies have AAA rated credit.

It's far too late for sound money because the whole world would have to have sound money for it to work.
What Will Trump Do About The Central-Bank Cartel? | Zero Hedge

"She takes on the research staffs of elite, Ph.D. economists — “the MIT mafia” — who are married to their mathematical models and focused on publishing in peer-reviewed journals. She exposes the institutional groupthink — “groupstink,” she calls it — and disdain for dissenting views. And she reserves her most strident criticism for those at the very top."

"In her columns, DiMartino Booth had warned about lax mortgage-lending standards, a housing bubble and escalating systemic risk. Once ensconced at the Fed, she was left to wonder why so many “highly educated and well-paid economists” were “oblivious as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was about to break over their heads.” (One of the main reasons is the Fed’s reliance on econometric models that don’t include anything related to the financial system, such as debt or credit.)"
We don't need no stinking information, we have MODELS.
‘Fed Up’ exposes the elite rot inside the Federal Reserve - MarketWatch
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Old 02-17-2017, 04:04 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Chapter 11 for you and me

I'm trying to take a group of simple ideas and build a complex structure,,, with a simple conclusion. Start with;
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man [John Perkins] John illustrates every dirty trick that banks and States use to put other States into deep debt. Job number 1 for the bankers is to create debt and then, morph that debt into Tangibles. John has stated that the banks got a lot of money and practice pillaging smaller States/economies. His updated book claims that the bankers have now set their sights on America and other first world States.

" Anne Krueger – at the time the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) first deputy manager – was very straight-forward about the whole matter. She proposed introducing the concept of bankruptcy of entire countries as a means to, above all, afford international creditors fullest protection.
Chapter 11 Bankruptcy for Nation-States!"
"Although the global banking elite would love to put Argentina up against the wall, they must however be cautious regarding the precedent this would create that could bring mischief to on-going debt restructures in other parts of the world, especially in the European Union."
Ah yes, the European union.

"So, what’s up? Basically, that Anne Krueger’s concept of setting up the international legal framework that would allow bankruptcy procedures to be imposed on whole nations is again in the forefront.

That would “legally” permit turning Argentina upside down so that it not only gives up every last Dollar but, more importantly, its immense natural resources, a most attractive prospect for the Global Power Elite, as long it does not wreak havoc or derails their long-term plan of the controlled deconstruction of sovereign nation-states "

“bold suggestion” whereby “under certain conditions a government’s international debt repayments should be temporarily suspended while negotiations take place on restructuring that debt.” With her statement, the IMF officially endorsed the radical suggestion of introducing an international legal framework addressing country bankruptcy as a way of “improving the international financial architecture”. Yes, planned rape by the bankers.

"The implicit objective is to ensure that Sovereign Bond creditors – hedge funds, vulture funds, giant megabanks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, CitiCorp, JPMorganChase, HSBC, and the IMF itself – can exert huge leverage taking priority in cashing in on the monies sucked out of a Nation’s taxpayers’ (workers’), central banks, mineral, oil & gas wealth, and other resources and reserves."

"As if horrific debt crises caused by artificially created unsustainable debt burdens could ever be resolved by taking on/imposing ever higher, heavier, long-term debt."
"Now the Global Power Masters appear to be keen on refloating the whole “Chapter 11 for countries” idea. But they must do this with great caution lest they end up shooting themselves in the foot, because if Argentina is to be made an example of by a New York Court ordering Argentina to pay vulture funds who did not accept the 2005 Debt Mega-Swap, that example could spill over not only into countries like Greece, Portugal and Cyprus, which mega-bankers could macro-manage, but also Spain and Italy – even France – which is a totally different and more complex ball game that could even sound the untimely death-knell of the Euro earlier than what the global Elite want.

Remember: the Elites pushing all nations towards World Government need to engineer the CONTROLLED demise of Sovereign Nation-States; and the CONTROLLED demise of municipal governments like Detroit, Los Angeles, Washington DC and 120 other US cities earmarked for bankruptcy, where they propose applying constructive Chapter 9 public bankruptcy conditions rather than Chapter 11 designed to “orderly” tear apart and gobble up private companies."

"Governments in Greece, Portugal, the United States and elsewhere are borrowing, and often wasting, money at a reckless pace. Why do banks and financial markets cooperate? Because there’s something in it for them. They keep a little slice of the public money being borrowed or wasted. This is the ‘Sliver Strategy’, and it underlies the ways many of the Western world’s wealthy institutions relate to government: Only a sliver. But the more that is borrowed, the larger the sliver becomes….”

This begs the question “why did big banks underwrite the liars’ loans that caused the housing bubble? Because they took origination fees and other payments, then passed the toxic debt along to taxpayers. The greater the loan volume the larger the sliver — and most of the slivers ended up in the pockets of the banks’ top management.”
Can countries go bust? IMF created new form of modern mass slavery | Adrian Salbuchi

"the very foundations of today’s global banking system lie on parasitic pro-vulture rules and laws coupled with an overpowering lack of moral values."
"Here is where all the above “experts” go berserk & ballistic, shouting back: “Issue currency? Are you crazy?? That’s against the “rules & laws” of economics!!! Issuing national sovereign currency to finance the real economy’s monetary needs leads to inflation and lost jobs and chaos and… (puts us nice mega-bankers out of a job…)!!"
"“only if the debtor nation cannot restore its financial health are its assets liquidated and the proceeds distributed to its creditors – again under the guidance of a (global) court” (!).
"Time and The New York Times, for example – even suggested that the immensely rich Patagonia southern region should secede from Argentina as a defaulted debt payment mechanism."

"today’s delicate post-2008 banking system, a new and less controllable sovereign debt crisis could thwart the global elite’s plans for an “orderly transition towards a new global legal architecture” that will allow orderly liquidation of financially-failed states like Argentina. Especially if such debt were to be collateralized by its national territory (what else is left!?)"
"Will yet another sovereign debt bond mega-swap be imposed upon Argentina, this time with large swathes of its national territory – especially Patagonia – being used as collateral guarantee?"
Sovereign Debt for Territory: A new Global Elite Swap Strategy | Adrian Salbuchi

I'm not done yet,,, moving on;
"When James Baker made his keynote speech in 1987, he stated that, �No longer will the World Bank carry this debt unsecured. The only assets we have to collateralize are federal lands and national parks.� Baker�s definition of federal lands includes Heritage sites, of which there are about 20 in the United States"
" At the same time there is a bill before Congress called the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act that would increase the acreage of designated wilderness by 50% in the lower 48 states. *** While our Heritage sites take in quite a large amount of territory, such as Yellowstone National Park and Mesa Verde, the Grand Canyon and the Everglades, "
"Throughout the entire Draft National Animal Identification System Users Guide, land is referred to as a premises and not property. A �Premises� has no protection under the Constitution of the United States, while property always has the exclusive rights of the owner tied to it. Property rights are protected by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments of the Constitution.

The word �Premise� is a synonym for the word tenement. A definition of the word tenement in law is: Property, such as land, held by one person "
"I am convinced that the word �premise� will put an encumbrance on your deed. The bankers say they want to monetize land. It�s your land and my land they want to monetize."

So, sovereign debt crashes and the bankers have to settle for what they can take. Just what do you think that might be? The WWF has already been quite active at screwing anyone they can.
"The idea was to propagandize for "debt for natural re*sources swaps," such as those the WWF has arranged with Bolivia, Ecuador, and Costa Rica. Although Mrs. Wood worked ardently to play up its economic advantages to the debtor countries, her numbers were so ridiculous that she ended up recognizing that "the debt is not reduced panelists thus revealed that the whole package is nothing but a scam"

"mineral, oil & gas wealth" "Similarly, a 2012 report from the Center for American Progress determined that 13 of our nation’s national parks have oil and gas within their borders, while 30 could experience oil and gas drilling in the future."
MAP: Six National Monuments Where Oil and Gas Production is Currently Occurring – Center for Western Priorities
Yep, the bankers love oil and gas.
So we go into a crash of sovereign debt. The bankers offer to bail us out,,, for a price.
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Old 02-17-2017, 04:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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less earnings,,, more credit

GDP is growing slowly. What does it cost to make GDP grow?
$32 billion increase in credit-card borrowings, IN 90 days
The rise brought total consumer debt to $12.58 trillion, just shy of the $12.68 trillion peak in the third quarter of 2008.
Student loan balances rose to a new record high of $1.31 trillion, and auto loan debt also increased to a record $1.16 trillion in the 18-year history of this data series.
What could possibly go wrong?
Is This What They Mean By “Crack-Up Boom”? - DollarCollapse.com

2/16 Auto loan bubble is bursting – Investors.com
2/16 Philly Fed index rockets to 33-year high in another postelection blast – MarketWatch Beware of gravity.
2/16 Europe’s delusional economic policies – Credit Writedowns
2/16 Austerity was a bigger disaster than we thought – WaPo
Give it time and it will be a biggerer disaster.
2/16 Aetna CEO: Obamacare in ‘death spiral’ – Bloomberg That is not possible. It cost $ 2.1 billion to build the website so, nothing can go wrong.

2/15 Biggest EU banks embark on the mother of all debt binges – Wolf Street That will result in the mother of all crashes.
2/16 Inflation could push 4m more Britons below poverty line – Guardian What, do you mean that their wages are not rising?
2/16 Fed frets about commercial real estate bubble & its $2 trillion in loans – Wolf Street
2/16 American home values are about to be cut in half – Economy And Markets
"Fret" is the word for the moment. There will be a new word later on.
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Nope, it's not a science

Here are the top 30 universities for economics; Best Schools For Economics - Business Insider
Here are the 9 major "Schools" of economic thought; https://mises.org/blog/nine-schools-economic-thought
They did leave out Modern Monetary theory.
From Investopedia; "What does 'Animal Spirits" mean

A term used by John Maynard Keynes used in one of his economics books. In his 1936 publication, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money," the term "animal spirits" is used to describe human emotion that drives consumer confidence. According to Keynes, animal spirits also generate human trust."
So, in short, he didn't have a phucking clue about the dynamics that have such a huge effect on people and markets.

Hugo Salinas Price; "Specifically, we refer to "Mainstream Economics" - the "Economics" that is taught today at every single prestigious university in the world."Mainstream Economics" is the child of Physics, and it looks and walks and talks like its parent, Physics:
First of all, the central fallacious concept: "The Economy"
"thus by definition, economic activity has to be denominated in a number of units of money. Thus, all human choices that do not require the use of money escape the attention of the mainstreamers"

"Where the babbling becomes utterly disconnected from any human reality is when the variables are assigned quantities, just as variables are quantified in Physics, and are then combined in mathematical functions to produce indecipherable equations.

Mainstream economists love equations, they adore the simplicity of E=mc2.
But human activity does not operate on the basis of equating one thing with another, it operates by choosing between what is preferable and less preferable, in other words, not by equating things, but by differentiation in power of satisfaction."
"The mainstream economists, as such, consider humans as simple machines which consume or produce, and treat us as such, in their specious formulas. The valuations or preferences of flesh and blood humans are disregarded because numbers cannot be assigned to them.

Since "Mainstream Economics" is only a sham science that imitates the methodology of Physics, it turns out that "economists" - at the Fed, at the ECB, and at every Central Bank in the world - in fact do nothing "scientific" at all; they do nothing more than impose upon whole nations their own personal value judgments while they destroy the free markets, that are truly impersonal."
"The "New Austrian School of Economics", as presented by Professor Antal E. Fekete on his website, Professor Antal E. Fekete, is true Economics. Based on the original thinking of Carl Menger, the founder of Austrian Economics, this school rigorously avoids the error of following the methodology of the Physical Sciences. Our present "mainstream economics", like Physics, uses Numbers, as opposed to the "New Austrian Economics" which is based on Principles of Logic. Unfortunately, both the "Austrian Economics" of Ludwig von Mises and the improved "New Austrian Economics" of Fekete are quite out of favor in academic circles today.

"Mainstream Economics" imitates the methodology of Physics because of the enormous prestige that has accrued to Physics over the past four centuries, and is thus leading the world to an economic, political and social collapse which will mark the end of an Age."
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Old 02-18-2017, 01:46 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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A world run by idiots and parasites,,,, degrowth

So, the world is saturated with well-paid economists who don't have a clue of how the world works. MANY if their recent endevours have failed to work as planned OR even worked the opposite as planned. China DESTROYED the wage level in the West for manufacturing jobs. China just figured that they would magically morph into a big consumer economy. WHERE did they imagine the disposable income would come from at slave wages?
"It has been seven or eight years since the Great Economic Transition was due to take place – the move from an export to a consumer-led economy. "

"President Xi Jinping gave a pre-released keynote speech saying that globalisation was not to blame for the world’s economic woes. No propaganda this… he is quite right"
Most of the article is lies and wishful thinking. The feces-for-brains economists can't see any connection between wages and consumption.
Globalisation isn?t going away, nor is it to blame for the world?s economic woes | South China Morning Post

The Central Bank is there exclusively for the speculator class. They add no value to the things they manipulate. The speculator class exists ONLY to jack up prices to those in the lower loop. They are maintained by the constant monetary inflation. The FED figures that we need 2% per year money growth. This constant monetary inflation is NEVER offset by wage inflation. Leaving the gold standard has given an enormous profit boost to the upper loop at the expense of the lower loop. The CB prints,,, they speculate,,, we pay more.
This Is One Of The Big Reasons Why So Many Families Are Feeling Extreme Financial Stress

As wages and employment have crashed, there just wasn't enough money flowing into the upper loop. The CB printed to make up the difference. EVERY bit of this support was drawn out of the bond market. It certainly wasn't drawn from the productive sector of the economy. Wages continue to crash and prices continue to rise.

"Trump administration’s decision to order a thorough review of banking regulations with the express intention of loosening them.
This decision, widely criticized by powerful central banks" That's a good sign right there.
"Trump has long made his disdain for the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act public knowledge, recently announcing his intentions to “do a number” on the bill and promising to loosen a large part of the restrictions it put into place. Immediately, members of the neoliberal political and financial establishment lashed out,"
"Yet Trump and his advisors hold a starkly different view of the situation, arguing that Dodd-Frank’s regulations are holding the economy back — a fact that Frank admitted last year when he called key elements of the bill “mistakes.”
” Trump himself expressed these same concerns in an interview with the conservative news site Newsmax in 2011, telling Americans to prepare for “financial ruin”
Making America Broke Again: Trump & The Inevitable Financial Crisis

As the economy shrinks, who is going to take a reduction?
" Everyone turns on their most compelling emotion-based defense: "we wuz promised" is a reliable standard, as is "we need more money to defend the nation from the rising threat of XYZ." "Help those in need" plays the heartstrings effectively--as long as the "help" comes out of somebody else's pocket.
Everyone sharpens their knives, the better to carve a slice off somebody else's slice of the pie. A passive-aggressive free-for-all ensues as everyone reacts with aggrieved defensiveness to any attempt to diminish their slice, even as they launch shrill attacks on everyone else's defense."
"Here's the current federal spending pie: 55% is entitlements and interest. Both of those are set to soar as the populace ages and interest rates rise."

"We haven't "grown" at all. What we've done is borrow from future generations to create the illusion of growth"
"Fragmentation, discord, discontent, class war: this is the inevitable result of a shrinking pie. Our political, social and economic systems have no history or memory of how to navigate this systemic Degrowth successfully."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: This Is How the Status Quo Unravels: As the Pie Shrinks, Everybody Demands Their Piece Should Get Bigger
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Old 02-19-2017, 03:40 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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America will no longer be allowed to run a trade deficit

Jim Willie; "The Petro-Dollar system has stood for 45 years. It has decayed into tatters. Its derivative foundation is being liquidated, a long painstaking process. A new disruptive model was forged in 2014 when Iran sold India oil, which was paid in gold, but delivered from Turkey. Gradually emerging is the Gold Trade Note, first in oil payment then later in general payments in shipped goods. It is evolving within the Chinese market from Russian energy sales, all conducted outside the USDollar sphere."

"The Petro-Dollar has been effectively replaced with the mechanisms of a Petro-Yuan erected on the Gold table. The Chinese are putting in place a link between oil and gold, once again like before the Bretton Woods Gold Standard was violated by Nixon in 1971. The Gold Standard is emerging, with respect to the oil market. "
" The Gold Trade Note is en route to supplant and to replace the USTreasury Bill within the global payment system. The USDollar has been incredibly abused, with monetary printing used to cover USGovt deficits, to redeem toxic bonds held by Wall Street banks, to justify the US trade deficit, and to finance endless wars. "
"With barter and the oil for gold sales, the elements were coming into shape for the Gold Trade Note. The nefarious bullies in Washington had been outwitted while giving the death sentence to the Petro-Dollar, and a death warrant to the USDollar. "

"Consider it another gigantic backlash from yet another illicit war. The USGovt and Israel kicked off the fascist coup in Kiev Ukraine, but the joke was on the Petro-Dollar, again a victim of severe blows to the groin. The Russians began both massive oil & gas sales with China, paid in RMB, but also energy pipeline construction to connect the two Asian nations. The construction would be paid in USTreasurys held by China."
Gold Trade Note Sighted

I suspect that the bankers will still insist that we must keep the military in Afghanistan, Drug Wars: 70% of the heroin in US streets comes from Afghanistan - Jim Willie
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Old 02-19-2017, 04:28 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Oil priced in gold, once again,,, where did all the money come from?

The mega-criminals are doing (almost) everything possible to get a war with Russia and Iran. I imagine they are doing this because of oil. They are trying to do an end-run around Trump to get things kicked off.
"Between 1865 and 1973, the price of oil was incredibly stable against a backdrop of perhaps the greatest simultaneous economic, demographic and technological expansion in human history.
How was that possible?
Well simply put, because oil was effectively priced in gold.
However...Once the gold window closed and the petrodollar system was implemented, the price of oil soared 50-fold in just 35 years."
The article has great charts and graphs.
Things That Make You Go Hmm... Like The Death Of The Petrodollar, And What Comes After | Zero Hedge

Almost our entire finance system is focused on supporting the non-producers. A LOT of people got rich. Where did the money come from? The FED inflated the money supply by about 2% a year. Recently, the CB has been buying LOTS of stocks. Labor's share of the economic pie has been steadily shrinking. The bond market is expected to be repaid by future workers
The money was ALL puled out of the pocket of the producer. That which wasn't pulled out of the pockets of current producers is expected to be pulled out of the pockets of future producers.
With ~ 95---100 million producers not at work, the equation just doesn't work. FED GOV debt is reckoned to be at least $40 trillion. If it didn't go into the pocket of the working man, it must have gone into the pockets of the parasites.

The investor class couldn't / wouldn't pay adequate wages so, the middle class slips away. Regulatory capture allowed them to avoid taxes. When the transaction tax (Tobin) was proposed, they threw up their hands in horror. NOTHING could be allowed to cut into their profits. They keep stacking the debt notes higher and higher. They have lost sight of the fact these debt notes can only be repaid by somebody with money. Who has the money?
ALL debts must be paid by either the debtor or the loaner.
The whole economy is a sham where those who have the money don't pay and those who don't have the money are expected to pay. The debt mountain has grown so big that neither party can pay now.

The whole farce was promulgated on the idea that the middle class wouldn't complain too loudly if part of the great wealth channelled to the rich were to trickle down the the rest. Forget the fact that the "great wealth" was in fact "great debt".

"But something happened between 2015 and now.
It’s not just Neiman Marcus, which last month killed its plans for an IPO (after reporting five straight quarters of declining sales).
Or home prices in the Hamptons, which recently fell 17% compared to year-ago levels. Or art market prices, which crashed last year as well. Or even dull jewelry sales, with Tiffany’s reporting vastly disappointing numbers."
"For instance, the folks at Standard & Poor’s keep a Global Luxury Index that tracks 30 of the largest publicly traded companies in the worldwide consumer discretionary sector.

We’re talking the likes of Tesla, LVMH Moët Vuitton, Diageo, Daimler AG, BMW, Pernod Ricard and even Nike. Yet S&P’s Global Luxury Index peaked almost three years ago in July 2014. Since then, it’s down about 13%."
In the Lapse of Luxury: When the Rich Stop Spending
The stock market is going up like crazy,,, the proverbial suckers rally.

"He once again defended the gold standard monetary system that was widely followed by economies around the world until the 1930s.

“Today, there is a widespread view that the 19th-century gold standard didn’t work. I think that’s like wearing the wrong size shoes and saying the shoes are uncomfortable! It wasn’t the gold standard that failed; it was politics,” Greenspan said."
The bankers are bad enough, it's the politicians who really get behind currency inflation.

"In fact, Americans managed to shed $1.5 trillion in debt from 2008 through 2013 through foreclosures and the slow process of just paying down debt. But in less than three years, we’re right back to where we were."
The Household Debt Meltdown
Nobody can resist the siren call of credit and free money.
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Old 02-19-2017, 05:51 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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We mis-spent our fortunes

Reserve-currency status meant that everybody sent us their money. We could have built a worldwide trading empire. Alas, it was not to be. We built a worldwide military empire. Shumpeter called for creative destruction to keep the economy producing. Keynes called for perpetual war to keep everybody employed. Israel used regulatory capture to promote endless war in their favor.

Alibaba'a Jack Ma Drops a Redpill in Davos: The U.S. Wasted $14 Trillion on Wars Over the Past 30 Years Alibaba'a Jack Ma Drops a Redpill in Davos: The U.S. Wasted $14 Trillion on Wars Over the Past 30 Years | Zero Hedge
America is laid to waste, 11 Deeply Alarming Facts About America's Crumbling Infrastructure | Zero Hedge
America is attacked on 2 fronts; Socialism and Islam.

"Now we know why America’s middle class suffers, too – not on the same scale, but for the same basic reason. Too many win-lose deals were imposed on them by the Parasitocrats, the insiders – the same people who now loathe the president they so richly deserve."
"More than likely, the new president will be unable or unwilling to make any substantial dent in spending on pensions, pills, or schools. There are simply too many crony swamp critters and zombie voters on the receiving end. Besides, they are not completely lose-lose programs. Overpriced and inefficient they may be. Still, ordinary people do get some real benefits from them.

That leaves the two biggies: the military-industrial-security complex and Wall Street. Thus do the clouds lift and the picture clarifies. Trump and his team must try to rein in the gunmen and the moneymen, or they are nothing but conmen." Give him credit for trying.
The Great Wailing | Zero Hedge

"The monetary base, or “central bank money” – money created directly by a central bank – has gone from 10% of GDP in 2008 to 35% at the end of 2016 in OECD countries! And nothing seems to be able to stop this frenzy which was triggered by the subprime crisis." BS, it was triggered by manipulation and a loss of wages. That 25% increase in the issuance of free-money was what it took to keep the upper loop from crashing.
"When a central bank purchases a financial asset from an economic agent and pays it with money it creates out of thin air, said agent can do what he pleases with the money – buy financial assets (stocks, bonds, credit...) or real estate. This money created without any counterparty then artificially inflates the value of these assets, until they reach a breaking point "
Yep, free money endlessly created to keep the speculators rich.

Australia is still in the news; Apocalyptic warning for Australian families

Information deficit;
"At first it, issuing more currency feels good because those closest to the money printing get stinking rich while doing practically nothing. As that trickles down, everybody initially feel smart and wealthier. Well, not everybody; but those running the system sure do."
"Our grand experiment in debt-based fiat currency -- unbacked by anything tangible, like gold -- began on August 15th, 1971 when Nixon unilaterally broke the Bretton Woods agreement and forced the entire world off of the gold standard. Not that the world minded much, because this then meant that politicians and monetary hacks everywhere could ignore centuries of economic lessons and begin making exorbitant promises by printing currency like mad. "

"We see that debt has shot up by a factor of 40 while income has only increased by a factor of 17. We have indeed grown our debts wildly faster than our income over the past 45 years".
"What have they done with the trillions in "thin air" currency they have printed up? They handed them to the big banks, to speculators and the already wealthy. Which should come as little surprise. These are the people they count on for their high-status jobs, as well as the big payouts awaiting them when they return to the private sector."

Part two; " the bankers and politicians are already frantically at work on the only question they care about: Who, instead of us, is going to eat the losses?"
Well, who has all the money?

" The stronger parties in all this, the governments, companies, richer individuals, may be wrong, but they have no reason to correct their wrongs: the system appears to work fine for them. They actually make good money because all corrections, all policies and all efforts to hide the negative effects of the gross ‘mistakes’, honest or not, made in economic and political circles are geared towards making them ‘whole".
“Real GDP growth fell and leveled off in the mid-1970s, then started falling again in the mid-2000s”. What happened during that 30-year period was that we started printing and borrowing with abandon, making both those activities much easier while we did, until the debt load overwhelmed even our widest fantasies ten years ago. "

"As the first graph below shows, there was still growth post-Gold Standard but the rate of growth fell and then “leveled off”, More parasites.
"the amount of dollars it takes to produce a dollar of real growth. That amount has been increasing, and fast, to the point where it takes over $10 to create $1 or growth in the US and Europe"

St. Louis FED; "The U.S. economy expanded by 1.6% in 2016, as measured by real GDP. Real GDP has averaged 2.1% growth per year since the end of the last recession, which is significantly smaller than the average over the postwar period (about 3% per year). These lower growth rates could in part be explained by a slowdown in productivity growth and a decline in factor utilization. However, demographic factors and attitudes toward the labor market may also have played significant roles. "
I'm glad to see that they made at least a slight mention of labor. Not one mention of falling consumptive power.

"when growth is gone, so is all centralization, including globalization, other than by force. "
"At the same time, of course, those who profit most from centralization want that to continue. They can’t, but they will try, and hard."
America channelled too much of it's productivity into war instead of it's own people,, own country. The war-mongers on the Mediterranean drug everybody down until we "believe" that perpetual war is the norm.
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Old 02-20-2017, 04:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Bone-headed academics have come to the end of the road

There is no shortage of academics in ivory towers who are too willing to convince policy-makers that Academia has all the answers.
December 16, 2008 meeting of the federal reserve open market committee.
"That next sleety morning, they met again, determined to take action to prop up a faltering Wall Street, hopelessly mired in the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. "
"virtually all of those at the meeting were PhD economists who had earned doctorates at MIT, Yale, Harvard, Princeton, and other top American universities. They met under the auspices of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision-making body of the Federal Reserve System. They believed a lifetime of study in economic theory and monetary policy had given them unique insight to steer policy for the most powerful central bank in the world, the lender of last resort for failing Wall Street banks"

"Bernanke was calm but insistent. His lifetime of study of the Great Depression indicated this was the only way. His sheer depth of knowledge about the Fed’s mishandling of that tragic period was undoubtedly intimidating." Of course, the FED couldn't managed the Great Depression. The FED had caused the Roaring 20s by inflating everything in sight.
"It took a few months, but the Fed’s mouth-to-mouth resuscitation brought gasping investment banks and hedge funds and giant corporations back to life. Wall Street rejoiced." BIG mistake.
"But the Fed’s academic models never addressed one basic question: What happens to everyone else?"
"To what end? All around are signs of an economy frozen in motion thanks to the Fed’s bizarre manipulations of monetary policy, all intended to keep the economy afloat." NO,,, to keep the bankers afloat.
"Ruining Americans’ pension systems? The professor and the FOMC had not anticipated that particular side effect."
"Delaying household formation and all the consumer spending that goes with that? Not on the FOMC’s radar."

"Killing the move-up housing market? Nope, the FOMC didn’t foresee that either."
"The members of the FOMC knew their decision would screw savers and the risk-averse elderly. They didn’t care. They couldn’t afford to. " they only POSTPONED the pain.
"Greenspan championed the era of financial deregulation that drove Wall Street to levels of greed that surprised even the most hardened investment banking veterans.
His pragmatic response to every crisis on Wall Street? Lower interest rates, which Greenspan did again and again and again. Blow bubbles and pray they don’t pop.
But they always do."

"The resulting wealth-effect tide would lift all boats. Hailed as a genius by other academics, Bernanke had every confidence his theories would work.

When they didn’t, when the American economy continued to stagger, Bernanke doubled down. His models couldn’t be wrong; something else must be holding back the economy."
"But real people haven’t responded the way academics anticipated in their wealth-effect models. "
"Since 2005, U.S. corporations have disbursed an estimated $296,000 on share buybacks for every single new employee who has been hired." The FED prints money and is quite certain of where that money will flow.

"Proof: a third of all cars traded in during 2015 had loans that were “underwater.” The owners had taken on debt for more than the value of the vehicles."

Since the dollar is the reserve currency, MANY States must have lots of dollars so that they can print a commensurate amount of their domestic currency. Heaven forbid that they just print whatever amount is necessary to run their domestic economy. There is an ever-growing demand for dollars overseas.
"The first time we explained that one of the biggest risks facing a world in which the dollar is the reserve currency is a global USD shortage, was in mid-2009, when we wrote "How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World."
"no longer the VIX that was the widely accepted barometer of market "fear", it was now the dollar's turn to become the global fear gauge: "
""why the Dollar shortage a symptom of an inherently unstable system."

As Snider explains, "the dollar shortage isn't so much the shortage per se, it’s the fact that it's a symptom of what is an inherently unstable system." He notes that "the reason banks are withdrawing from the system is that it's just is no longer tenable" and "so there has to be some kind of – whether you want to look at it like another Bretton Woods – conference, a global monetary system, a global monetary get together where people start to analyze solutions to the problem as they are rather than keep trying to apply band aids that are not going to work. "
I'm SURE that the PTB would like the SDR to be the global money. There is an ongoing battle between the SDR and gold.

"An implication of the ongoing reserve currency funding shortage is that, according to Snider, despite the occasional blip (arguably funded by massive Chinese credit creation), "reflation is going to fail and there’s nothing the Fed can do about it." He goes on to state that "until they fix the global dollar problem we're not going to fix the global economy "
"we want them to start considering the global currency system and how it actually is operating and failing rather than their stylized academic approach which doesn't apply. "
"What's important about this is that "in each of these reflation episodes you can clearly see the market's faith in that reflation diminishes each time for these very reasons that we're talking about because these markets have become attuned to the fact the Fed isn't exactly what everybody thought it was, monetary policy isn’t what everybody thought it was."

"That's the only thing that truly matters" and concludes gloomily that "the probability scenarios for economic and financial future are much darker now than they were three years ago."
"There's Something Weird Going On": Jeff Snider On The Global Dollar Shortage | Zero Hedge

"In 2013, policy makers largely ignored two Oxford economists who suggested that 45% of all US jobs could be automated away within the next 20 years. But today that sounds all but inevitable."
"Automation is inevitable. But we still have time to take action and help displaced workers."
"Bill Gates recommends we tax robotic workers "
"Elon Musk recommends we adopt universal basic income "
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:52 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The collapse of socialism will bring a LOT of death.

Madison Avenue told us to spend, spend, spend! The bankers told us to borrow, borrow, borrow! FED GOV and SS told us that they would take care of us when we were to old and infirm to work. The money supply was growing at 9% per year. Nowhere did they teach prudence and restraint.
"There are close to 76 million baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) alive today representing 28% of the total US population. Starting in 2011, an estimated 10,000 Boomers have been retiring every day and that trend will continue for at least another 10 years."

Only 55% of Boomers have saved money for retirement.
59% of Boomers cite Social Security as their major source of retirement income.
Health care costs consume 33% of income amongst Boomers age 60 and over.
Economic satisfaction has fallen from 76% in 2011 to 43% in 2016.
1 in 3 Americans has $0 saved for retirement.
Women are less prepared for retirement than men.
28% of Americans over 55 have no retirement savings.

"1 in 5 individuals age 85 and older who died between the years 2010 and 2012 had no assets other than a home, 1 in 6 died broke, and 1 in 10 died with an average debt of $6,000."
The Four Horsemen of the Retirement Apocalypse | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

"In 2015, Wall Street Bonuses, not regular compensation, bonuses, seven years after they were bailed out with the public purse, totaled $29.4 billion dollars. Total compensation paid to every single person in this country who makes minimum wage totaled $14 billion..."
"The replacing of honor and duty with egoism and greed as the most honored of civic virtues was a long and slow process."
"The crux of the problem is the huge imbalance between corporate power and the ability of worker's to achieve increasing wages. Without increasing wages, broader aggregate demand in the form of consumption cannot be sustained."
Jesse's Café Américain: Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Three Day Weekend - Times of General Corruption

Armstrong has plenty to say.
"The Social Security system is likewise a disaster. I tried to convert it into a wealth fund almost 20 years ago. The Democrats blocked it for anything to do with the free markets to them was risky."
"Nobody would have sat down and designed a financial or political system as we have today. This whole mess is just total insanity. It does not take a conspiracy, it takes stupidity. "

"forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?" "ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess."
"This was equivalent to the 1923 turning point in a basket of currencies back then. So the 2009 target was correct and this implies that the 2017 target should also be correct. This year 2017 will be just the beginning."

"Do you really think it was just coincidence that now Tony Blair is telling the British people to also rise up and create civil unrest in Britain like Obama and Schummer? Remember Obama going to Britain and insulting the people trying to tell them to vote against BREXIT or they would be at the “back of the queque” on any trade deal with the USA? Obama was in the same camp as Tony Bair – surrender sovereignty to Brussels. Obama was coordinating the USA for the Left trying to subjugate Britain. They all work together. The one world government they dream of is a Marxist utopia. They cannot see beyond their own desire for power. "
"The left is fighting tooth and nail to prevent socialism from collapsing. They refuse to admit that their corrupt agenda of always using Marxism disguised as “progressive” or “liberal” has led the world to the brink of total economic collapse"

"We are headed into the closest thing possible to an all outright civil war and the left is INTENTIONALLY trying to overturn everyone everywhere to keep their Marxist agenda in place. The HATRED spewing out of their mouths is really off the wall. Obama has definitively aided this movement and has accepted money from George Soros to help create his dream – restoration of a Marxist state."

"As we head into April/May, we are looking at a real crisis emerging that is beyond contemplation. The prospect of the breakup of the European Union because Brussels refuses to consider that their dream of ruling all of Europe is coming to an end. "
"The real crisis behind the curtain remains not TRADE, but BANKING. The EU hired over 20,000 people to regulate the European banking system"
" All of this becomes a major risk and the European Central Bank holds 40% of all government debt in the Eurozone. The cracks in the foundation of the EU are tremendous and the ramifications will ripple through the entire global economy. The seriousness of this crisis is being ignored by mainstream media because they are too busy trying to undermine Trump because their own ratings have collapsed."

"The Bank of America stock, for example, has increased some 41% since Trump was elected on November 8. The Goldman Sachs stock has increased some 37% during this same time period."
The bankers are crashing the dollar and the Marxists are crashing the finance system.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Printing to keep the bond market alive

Very quiet at the moment.
"Global central bank balance sheets are up from $6 trillion in 2007 to $21 trillion today and they are still being expanded at the pace of $200 billion each and every month. "
"So you can tell, anybody with any objective, critical, independent mind can tell this is an unsustainable, very ephemeral rally in stocks that has occurred since 2009. And when the bond market breaks, when that bubble bursts, it will wipe out every asset -- everything will collapse together -- because everything is geared off of that so-called 'risk free' rate of return.

If your risk free rate of return has been warped down to 0% for 96 months, then everything -- and I mean diamonds, sports cars, mutual funds, municipal bonds, fixed income, REITs, collateralized loan obligations, stocks, bonds, everything, even commodities -- will collapse in tandem along with the bond bubble burst."
Contra Corner » The Coming Bond Bubble Collapse
He made no mention of prostitutes?

"Share buybacks and capital returns, sometimes funded by debt, have been used to support share prices. In January 2008, prior to the global financial crisis, U.S. companies were using almost 40% of their cashflow to repurchase their own shares. Ominously, that position is similar today."
Satyajit Das Warns Financial Engineering "Has Masked The Global Economy's Precarious Health" | Zero Hedge

"The next crash will be concentrated in bonds this time. Keep in mind that Andrew Mellon said that Gentlemen refer bonds. That statement proved to also be fatal during the Great Depression. Countless foreign bonds defaulted and were delisted. A stock that goes into bankruptcy typically returns something unless it was a dream start-up. Government bonds MORE-OFTEN-THEN-NOT, simply evaporate and the government will never prosecute itself."

Last edited by Danny B; 02-22-2017 at 05:39 AM. Reason: Missing link
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:05 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Using the printing press to put lipstick on a pig

The CBs printed lots of money and handed it out. The upper loop of the economy can't survive without perpetual monetary expansion. BUT, the FED wanted to attract capital outflows from weaker sovereign bond markets. The FED needed to appear conservative at the same time that it kept the money flowing. The FED needed to appear conservative so that it could outlast the rest of the CBs. At the same time, the FED has to uphold the appearance that it's bonds are attractive to the wider market.

China quit buying U.S treasuries some years ago. Not to worry, (Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Island, Switzerland) took over and maintained the foreign bid until the Federal Reserve ceased QE.
Forget the fact that Belgium had NO dollars to buy U.S. treasuries and Ireland is the brokest of them all.
"But since QE ended, the domestic public is buying all net new marketable debt plus that which foreigners are not rolling over."
The chart; Yikes, can't post the link for the chart, It's about 400 lines.

2011 to 2014 the "public" was buying 27% of the treasuries
2015 to 2016 the public bought 119%.
119% includes maturing notes (rollover) and new issuance. Great gobs of money are flowing into the stock market. Same for corporate bonds. HUGE amounts are flowing into sovereign bonds. This is attracting capital inflows even though stock valuations are at 2.7 times historical valuations.

Armstrong says that the U.S. sovereign bond market will collapse. The FED is encouraging inflows to hold back the collapse.
The ESF and PPT are doing the job for the FED so that it can appear to be avoiding expansion in the money supply.
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Old 02-24-2017, 03:14 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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automation and work, human values and the family

Jon Rappoport; "these behemoths are operating their production lines at half-strength. Why? Because only 1.5 billion people in the world have enough money to rate as true consumers.
So these corporations, which are the leading lights of the Globalist agenda, are looking and hoping for many more customers. "
" Indeed, Globalists are all for wrecking economies and deepening poverty—aims which infect the lifeblood of corporations.
We are looking at a huge crack—a contradiction—in the very foundation of the Globalism."

"In short, the corporations are buying a pie-in-the-sky con. They insist on believing the favors and concocted advantages the Globalists are offering them in the marketplace are wonderful; but in fact, the long-term situation is a no-win. It’s a narrowing road, and a crack-up is coming.
Globalists are shrinking the worldwide consumer base. "
"In that scenario, the mega-corporations will also shrink to shadows of their former selves. Their usefulness will rapidly decay.
Memo to CEOs: why don’t you try waking up?
Your whole elite movement is a walking contradiction, and you’re on the downside."

SO MANY writers,,, so little intelligence; https://hackernoon.com/the-bill-gate...e8c#.cztjfu5kd
David Autor: Will automation take away all our jobs? | TED Talk | TED.com
Various writers seem to think that re-training is the solution to runaway automation. 50% of the people in Detroit are illiterate;
Nearly Half Of Detroit's Adults Are Functionally Illiterate, Report Finds | The Huffington Post
It ISN'T going to get any better; Detroit Public Schools: 93% Not Proficient in Reading; 96% Not Proficient in Math
We spent $25 trillion on the "war on poverty" and,,, we lost the war.

It's not just Detroit, http://cdn.cnsnews.com/styles/conten...?itok=3T0trV1z
The parasites drained away the money and destroyed the nuclear family.
"'The welfare state has done to black Americans what slavery couldn't do. . . . And that is to destroy the black family."
Work is an absolutely critical part of our lives and the Left, et al just don't understand.
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Old 02-24-2017, 03:23 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Interest and social credit

There are millions of bureaucrats "working" for GOV that serve no discernible purpose. They act as a conduit for GOV to inject money into the economy FROM the bond market. EVERYTHING is financed by wet-ink money. The more that things become automated, the more money GOV injects into the economy independent of actual productivity. BUT, this is debt money. The interest burden just grows higher and higher. So, what solution does GOV offer?
2/24 Treasury eyeing issuance of 100-year U.S. government debt – GATA

GOV must currently depend on investors rolling over their bonds and NOT cashing them out. 100 year bonds should do the trick.
They can effectively ignore the principle.

The interest burden is another story. GOV prints and injects tons of money just to force interest rates down. Inflation of the money supply causes prices to rise. GOV makes public debt service "sustainable" at the expense of driving everybody into poverty. As people become impoverished, the demand more support from GOV. This is the cycle of GOV accruing more debt. It never has a happy ending.

Historically, interest has been limited or condemned. It has always had such a corrosive effect on society that, it was often outlawed.
“The most hated sort [of moneymaking], and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural use of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term usury which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money, because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of all modes of making money this is the most unnatural.” ~Aristotle (384-322 BCE)1

"Opposition to usury seems to have been instinctive in many diverse civilisations and cultures, with an intuition it is something unnatural, parasitic and outright sinful. When a civilisation accepts usury as normal business practice, as does Western civilisation, it is symptomatic of an advanced cycle of decay."
"Plutarch (46–127 CE), in his essay “Against Running In Debt, Or Taking Up Money Upon Usury,” described usurers as “wretched,” “vulture-like,” and “barbarous.” Cato the Elder (234–149 BCE) compared usury to murder. Cicero (106–43 BCE) stated, “these profits are despicable which incur the hatred of men, such as those of… lenders of money on usury.”
"Dante (1265–1321) placed usurers in the seventh rung of Hell, where the usurer would spend eternity with a heavy bag of money around his neck. Dante wrote:

From each neck there hung an enormous purse, each marked with its own beast and its own colours like a coat of arms. On these their streaming eyes appeared to feast.9"
"What is money? A means of exchange devised to facilitate the transition of business. Oil in the engine. Very good then: if instead of letting it flow as smoothly and freely as possible, you baulk its very nature; you prevent it from doing its True Will. So every restriction on the exchange of wealth is a direct violation of the Laws of Thelema.15"

Fuller; "The science of credit is the secret of the limitation of wars. Therefore I welcome Social Credit, because in the clearest terms it reveals this secret to all.18"
A Secret History of Money Power : Waking Times
The article goes on at length about social credit.
After the crash of the bond market, everybody who was sucking at the public teat is going to be destitute. Emergent socialism isn't really the answer. It ignores human nature. Social Credit may be the answer.

The State printed money with the false hope that it would create a trickle-down effect and help out everybody. History shows that this makes the rich that much richer and the poor that much poorer.

Last edited by Danny B; 02-24-2017 at 03:38 PM. Reason: One more link
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Old 02-26-2017, 05:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Coming soon; the debt ceiling and the new budget

Socialism comes in many disguises; "Never before had so many people been hired by the state, with such salaries, pensions and benefits—to the point where the average government job paid almost three times the salary of the average private-sector job. An egregious but not isolated example was the national railroad company, which had annual revenues of €100 million against an annual wage bill of €400 million, on top of €300 million in other expenses. This is how the average state railroad employee came to earn €65,000 a year."

"Italy has the world’s third-largest sovereign bond market with public debt of more than $2.5 trillion. Much of this debt is held by Europe’s shaky banking system, which heightens the risk that an Italian sovereign debt default could shake the global financial system to its core. …the country’s economic performance since 2008 has been abysmal. Indeed, Italian living standards today are around 10 percent below where they were 10 years ago. "
"the Italian economy has experienced a triple-dip recession that has left its economy today some 7 percent below its pre-2008 crisis peak level "

" …Italian banks now have around EUR 360 billion in non-performing loans, which amounts to a staggering 18 percent of their loan portfolio. If that were not bad enough, the Italian banks also hold unhealthily large amounts of Italian government debt,"
Move Over Greece, Italy's Crisis Will Be Worse | Zero Hedge
Italy is trying to increase it's birth rate. The People are demanding more welfare to make kids more affordable. Without assistance the population falls. With assistance, GOV debt grows. Eventually, it will be recognised that; either GOV produces debt-free money OR, the population continues to decline.

The CFR does a very good job of analysing Trump's financial plans. They clearly show that he just can't make everybody happy.
"In 2013, and then again in 2015, Congress voted to temporarily suspend the limit. (debt ceiling)

The current suspension expires in March, and Trump administration appointees have signalled differing philosophies. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned of the dangers of defaulting, while the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Mick Mulvaney, has previously favored using the debt limit to push for spending cuts."
Trump Budget Deficit and the U.S. Debt - Council on Foreign Relations

"That the cream of the economics profession is clueless was admitted this week by a rate-setting member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, in evidence before the Treasury Select Committee of the UK’s Parliament. The BoE’s forecasters have not only got the performance of the economy over Brexit horribly wrong, but it is now admitted that “….there are large forecast errors, and we are probably not going to forecast the next financial crisis, nor are we going to forecast the next financial recession.”ii
Global (economic) warming

It remains to be seen just how long Pox Americana can conduct business as usual.
The United States of Permanent War
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Old 02-26-2017, 07:09 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The West slowly sinks beneath the waves.

The controlling cabal is essentially a WESTERN cabal. LePen wants France to succeed,,, Grillo wants Italy to succeed,,, Putin wants Russia to succeed. The Western-centric cabal is losing out to the rest of the world. Armstrong shows the final collapse of America by 2036;
" The first opportunity where the United States will break apart will be 23 years from 2013 and that will perhaps by the Pi target from the 2032 high – 3.14 years later bringing us to 2036."
Martin Armstrong Warns "Rising Civil Unrest In America Is Highly Dangerous For The Future" | Zero Hedge
Pox Americana has run up ENORMOUS debts, primarily in service to the mother country, israel. It is an artificial country and does NOT have any long-term prospects.
The West is trying to institute socialism and going broke in the process. U.S. GOV debt is reckoned at $ 20 trillion but, is actually double that. Unfunded liabilities are reckoned at $ 213 trillion. (Kotlikoff)

The debt system has destroyed the West and the cabal with it.
Analyzing the Emerging World Order: The Future of Globalism | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization
Russia does not have any GOV debt and it is definitely a rising star, What does Russia produce? 1 | The Vineyard of the Saker
George Soros is doing his part to bring a color revolution to America and crash it down. The feces-for-brains Marxists believe that the Cloward-Piven strategy is the key to future happiness;
When the great reset happens, that will hasten the fall of the West. Our balance-of-trade deficit is $ 1.5 billion a day. With the crash of credit, our imports will crash,,, including oil.
The upcoming debt-ceiling and budget negotiations will bring a huge dose of reality to our financial state.

We let corporatism run away from control. A corporation has no brain, heart, soul or morality. It is just a pile of money looking to get bigger. "ALL societies that fall into moral collapse soon fall into economic and political collapse", Douglas MacArthur.
It is possible for capitalism to be moral but, it is not possible for crony-capitalism to be moral. It's very basis is un-earned advantage.
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Old 02-27-2017, 01:45 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Nowhere to kick the can

The old paradigms of capitalism, socialism, republics, democracy, stimulus and trickle-down economics are broken. They were destroyed by the computer and birth-control. Not to mention super-cheap shipping.
The so-called liberals and progressives have crashed into stupid policies and intransigence. They go running from the room if they hear anything that doesn't agree with pre-formed opinions and old beliefs.
Our brave new world features a crashing consumer base, a demographic crash, runaway automation, bankrupt socialism, etc.

Confidence has fled the scene but, the CBs have printed so much money, it is thwarted while looking for a safe haven. The whole neo-liberalism doctrine has been destroyed by forces beyond the keen of politicians.
Regulatory-capture gave us the One Party and the One Bank.
There are NO policies that can rescue the system. Mankind can not expand without limit. Finance systems can't survive without endless expansion.

Neoliberalism self-destructs with NOTHING to replace it. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...imf-economists
Socialism is incompatible with human nature. BUT, socialism is the firewall between non-producers and Darwinian pressures. Corporatism completely takes man out of the equation. A corporation has no brain so, it doesn't perceive that consumption withers away when potential customers are destitute. A corporation is immortal and immune to prosecution. It has no perception of limitations.
Democracy always , eventually morphs into socialism and communism. A democracy can only be a temporary arrangement.
Trump has the smartest bankers advising him. They ALL read Armstrong. They can see the approaching train wreck. Survival of Goldman Sachs is now impossible without the survival of America.
Helicopter money won't save us in the long run. Social credit has possibilities but, it can't co-exist with human nature. The end of life is death. The opposite of life is boredom. There are ongoing experiments to give everybody a monthly check. I don't hold out much hope. The Libs don't have any answers. The neocons don't have the answer; Neocon panic and agony | The Vineyard of the Saker

Le Pen may win; https://www.theatlantic.com/news/arc...france/517155/
If she is allowed to press ahead with he plans, the Eurozone will collapse; How France scrapping the euro could go beyond a ‘Lehman moment’

As if things aren't already bad enough, "
GEERT Wilders appears on track to win the Dutch election as anti-EU populism continues to sweep across Europe. But what happens if he wins? "
Armstrong calls for the crash to kick off THIS year. The EU will be lucky to last until the end of 2017.
If the PTB can't somehow make the industrial economy serve the majority of the people, those people will have to revert to an agrarian economy. The developed world will lose most of it's cities.
We're heading into the worst of times with the worst of "leaders".
Politicians kick the can down the road but, they have flat run out of road.
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Old 02-27-2017, 04:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The fast approaching paralysis

If you search on "congressional gridlock", it returns 68,000 results. Things have never been this bad. Soros is doing his part to make them worse. Israel has always used sexual entrapment to get control over politicians. Trump is hell bent on exposing all the dirt. The politicians are hell bent on stopping him. They have already signalled that they are going to oppose him at every turn.
There is a dawning appreciation for just what this will mean in the fast-approaching debt ceiling negotiations.
David Stockman: Giant Fiscal Bloodbath Coming Soon, Everything Will Grind to a Halt in 2017 – InvestmentWatch

"So in a matter of weeks or months at most, Trump will be struggling to survive, while the giant fiscal stimulus that has Wall Street all bulled-up will amount to a heap of ruins scattered about a debilitating political war zone on Capitol Hill.

I never thought the vaunted Trump tax cut and infrastructure boom would see the light of day in their own right, of course, because the Donald is caught in an inherited debt trap that he does not yet even dimly appreciate. "
"During the past year Uncle Sam’s “cash burn rate” was nearly $75 billion per month. That means Washington actually consumed $885 billion of cash during the last 365 days — or far more than implied by the official budget deficit of $587 billion for the fiscal year just ended (FY 2016)."

"Recall that there is not a snowball’s chance in the hot place of the GOP’s fragile 52-48 Senate majority prevailing on Obamacare outside of the filibuster-proof reconciliation instructions under the FY 2017 budget resolution.

But that’s also a Catch-22. Under the rules, Congress cannot pass a FY 2018 budget resolution to shield the tax cut from a 60-vote filibuster without avoiding the prior year reconciliation instructions on Obamacare.

Accordingly, I do not expect either a FY 2018 budget resolution or tax cut/reform instruction before the debt ceiling crisis hits next summer. "
"The one thing we learned during two decades in Washington is that re-litigating an election — which is the essence of the Deep State counter-attack now underway — is toxic to any semblance of ordinary governance, as it proved to be during Watergate.

But if you overlay on that the white hot political confrontations now erupting over issues that truly do divide the American public — such as government arranged health care and immigration — you have guaranteed paralysis and a fractious breakdown in the Imperial City."

Global sovereign debt to hit new all-time high - S&P | Reuters
"Britain's post-Brexit double downgrade will mean the percentage of world debt now with a top grade 'triple-A' rating will fall to an all-time low of just 7 percent down from around 13 percent a year ago.

S&P's calculations also showed Japan faces by far the highest debt rollover ratio this year, reaching a sum equivalent to 66 percent or two thirds of the size its economy."

The State printed tons of money,,,, the State created ZIRP so that the money would be interest-free. The State could finance itself on this free money.
Greenspan, "I never said that the FED is independent".
The tunnel-vision of the State to finance itself with free money never gave any thought to collateral damage. Like most parasites, it gives little thought to the health of the host. (the producing economy).
The cash-drain from the banks and the mega-consumption from the State (wars, etc) has drained the economic life out of most of the economy.
Incurring debt to support investment with a return is one thing.
Incurring debt solely for consumption is another.
The State incurred debt for consumption until that was no longer possible. Now, it incurs debt at ZIRP (free money) to try to maintain spending (consumption) levels.
The State exudes giga-tons of monetary pixels to keep the consumption party going. The surfeit of "money" has no place to go, other than, mal-investment. The State must $hit out even more money to compensate for the defaults in the mal-investment.

Trump said that the dollar is too strong. The coming federal gridlock should change all that. The S&P downgraded U.S. debt a few years ago. It may suffer another downgrade by summer.
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Old 02-27-2017, 10:44 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Evidently people are more important than money

I have TONS of posts writing about all the various symptoms and facets of our economic system. I found an article that condenses the problem(s) down to just a few ideas. I only wish that I were so inspired with information and clarity.

I'm writing about the milestones on our path to insolvency. I’ll continue to do so because it is educational for me. Academia has turned TWO blind eyes to the problems, Intellectual Intolerance - Stunning Speech From Stanford University Provost Exposes "The Threat From Within" | Zero Hedge

Terra is suffering from our pollution and warfare. We have been very poor stewards, especially in the case of radioactive materials. The is especially true for dumping in the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea; "Two years ago, the Russian government provided a tally: two submarines, 14 reactors — five of which contain spent nuclear fuel — 19 other vessels sunk with radioactive waste on board, and about 17,000 containers holding radioactive waste. The last known dumping occurred in 1993. "
Include the DU we have spread around and the "accidents" , from Trinity to Rocketdyne to Fukushima.

The population is in decline. Meaningful work / jobs are in decline. Confidence is the glue that holds society together. That is in decline. The oceans are in decline. Bringing in immigrants with destructive lifestyles and no interest in working won't bring a revival of confidence.
The mantra of; finance first and, man second has helped to create a world where we just don't want to bring more children to life.

The finance system is going to hang on til the bitter end trying to keep their "advantage" over the producers. Japan has about 250,000 FEWER men every year. The producers are slowly leaving the scene. (mortal coil)
There will be no revival of the previous birth rate. The finance system is thrashing about in it's death throes. No amount of money will produce a baby. No babies= no future.
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:35 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Stockman,,,, unrolling the original plan for Greece

A few more details from Stockman; "In a typical month we have 250 to 300 billion in revenue coming in… that will easily cover the debt service for a month… that will readily cover social security and other critical payments… but when it comes to paying grants to state and local governments, contractors, or the Army Corp of Engineers, or the Pentagon, or a whole range of other activities, if you don’t have the cash you put the bills in the drawer…"
“Trump Does Not Yet Understand The Magnitude Of The Problem… It’s Going To Shock The System” | Silver Doctors

Stocks are at 2.7 times historical valuations. Sooner or later, gravity will take over.
When selling starts in markets, it'll trigger an 'avalanche', Marc Faber says
Everybody except the muppets know this but, the exodus hasn't started yet. This "action" is called; "picking up dimes in front of a steamroller". Timing the market is called; "catching a falling knife".
Just Five Charts: From ?Hope? To ?Nope? - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

Greece is to be privatized and completely dismembered as a State, Greece to Surrender Gold, Utilities and Real Estate in Exchange For Pieces of Paper Printed in Brussels
From comments;
"According to wikipedia there are "deposits" in banks. This is faulty. Even David Icke is wrong on that point, but a less bit wrong. David Icke understands "fractional banking" as the money "multiplies".
No, banking is total fraud. Bottomline is ECB / IMF has created the money that is current debt. Now they want 7% interest on money they did not have (i.e. using EU states, including Greece as collaterals)
7% means debt will double in 10-12 years
EU is created so that no country can expand money supply. Those who do that (all will have to, and the only option is loans) will be punished by interest rates like 7% (26% one year in case of Greece) -> and they will default. The default is by design.
Austerity will accelerate the default.
PM Tsipras is viewed as an agent for EU banks. Yanis Varoufakis is defending Greek interests.
We have learned US Elite and US Media are lying, cheating scumbags. EU elite and EU media are the same."

The cheerleaders are hard at work;
2/27 Orders for durable goods in US rebounded 1.8% in January – Bloomberg
2/27 Another smelly durable goods report – Mish
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Old 02-28-2017, 05:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The Event Horizon

Kunstler DOES have a way with words; A Hole in the Head - KUNSTLER
The winding down of the post-war boom was anticipated decades ago. Evidently, a lockdown from the Deep State was seen as the "answer". Deep State's Message: Prepare For Totalitarianism - The Daily Coin
Aside from the police state, we have the tribe doing a huge push to socialism. Not content with the proven loser of socialism, they are also instigating wars in MENA to flood Europe, et al with refugees. Multi-culti seems to be the watchword of the day.
The neocons caused the wars in MENA. Soros, et al provided transportation for the resulting "refugees" to flood Europe in hopes of destroying existing cultures. The tribe had been kicked out of every place they descended. Destroy nationalism and they would be less likely to be kicked out.

"Just a few days ago Josef Schuster, the leader of the Jewish community in Germany expressed alarm at the rise of the anti-Islamic immigration party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Incredibly, he insisted that Jews need to align themselves with Muslims against Germans who vote for that anti-Islam party."
News - ...AND YOU THOUGHT WE WERE A WEIRD MOB? - The Pickering Post
"The strengthening of multicultural or diverse Australia is also our most effective insurance policy against anti-Semitism. The day Australia has a Chinese Australian Governor General I would feel more confident of my freedom to live as a Jewish Australian."
--Miriam Faine, editorial committee member of the Australian Jewish Democrat"

So, they believe that destroying everything to make a world safe for the tribe is the main objective. One has to be extremely stupid to think that destroying social cohesion is the road to greater security.
America is scheduled for a final collapse in 2032---2036. (Armstrong). Igor Panarin says that it will break into 6 sections.
Trump may drain the swamp but, he can't undo 40 years of bad fiscal management.
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Old 03-01-2017, 04:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Falling wages makes everything look expensive

More and more States have caught on to the fact that you can't have an economy if you don't have people. China has reversed their one-child policy and is now paying you to have kids. Evidently, they aren't paying enough to get people to comply.

"Central banks are designed to create debt, and since 1913 the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 6800 times larger."
"Barack Obama and his team understood what was happening, and they were able to keep us out of a horrifying economic depression by stealing more than nine trillion dollars from future generations of Americans and pumping that money into the U.S. economy."
"When you add all forms of debt together, America’s debt to GDP ratio is now about 352 percent."
"That is the inevitable consequence of 100 years of credit expansion from virtually nothing to $250 trillion, plus global unfunded liabilities of roughly $500 trillion, plus derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion. This is a staggering total of $2.25 quadrillion. "
March 2017: The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way Overdue

"absent energy no wealth can be created." "our book (Hall and Klitgaard, Energy and the Wealth of Nations, Springer). "
"But Denison’s model did not include energy, but only capital and labor. When Reiner Kummel and his colleagues included energy in the same model they found that the unexplained residual disappeared and that energy was even more important than either Capital or Labor. "

This is a good article and the guy has given a lot of thought to the end of cheap oil. There is just one flaw.
Of course, the fluctuating value of the dollar makes it very hard to gauge whether oil prices themselves are rising or falling… Oil today at 2 grams(of gold), is about the same as it was in the early 1950s; but if you measure the price in US dollars, you would get the impression that it is about 30 times more expensive today!
Crude Oil
Oil is currently at the price it was at in 1974. It's not so much peak oil that is making energy so expensive, it is peak wages. Wages have gone up 17 fold and prices have gone up 40 fold. There is plenty of oil in the world. People just can't afford it.

"Adding a sense of urgency to all of this, three federal trust funds — covering highways, Social Security Disability and Medicare Hospital Insurance — are headed for insolvency over the next eight years, with a fourth set for depletion in 2030 (Social Security Old-Age Trust)."
How We Got Here In One Sentence - DollarCollapse.com
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Old 03-02-2017, 04:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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poison pills and energy flux density

Politicians of all stripes really love Ponzi schemes. It allows them to give to voters the proceeds of the future work of their children. Socialism always breaks the bank because politicians promise too much.
Armstrong; "So welcome to the pre-arranged time-bomb of Obama and Boehner. The press will blame this all on Trump. In the end, they will destroy socialism and contribute to the breakup of the United States"
"So the debt crisis looming on the horizon depends entirely upon how bad the Democrats and the press try to spin this to hurt Trump, but they will shoot themselves in the foot and help to destroy socialism and Western Culture if not unleash civil unrest."

"Trump inherits a pre-programmed time-bomb and Obama has organized protests to try to make sure Trump is blamed for everything Washington created since World War II."
"Yes, this debt crisis is right on time with our forecast made decades ago. Of course, the politicians will be faced with the collapse of socialism. Where will the money come from to keep all of these programs going? "
"The debt deal struck by President Barack Obama and the then House Speaker John Boehner back in October 2015, was done purposefully to ensure that the debt crisis would not unfold under Obama and the Democrats. The debt deal was absurd that the $20 trillion mark for the US debt ceiling as of March 15, 2017 would become permanent"

More Ponzi; "Local 707’s fund pays out $48 million a year — and takes in $7.5 million in contributions. "

Darwinian evolution itself can be characterized as increasing energy consumption and efficiency at the individual and species level. The key to biological evolution is to become better and better at capturing external energy supplies. The same goes for economic “evolution” if we think of the economy as an evolving organic system full of complex human beings."
\Energy flux is the driver of change in our galaxy. Nothing happens without a flow of energy. And what is energy? Energy is the ability to perform useful work. And in physics, what is useful work? Work is useful if it overcomes inertia or resistance in order to generate motion.

Energy not money makes the world go round. Energy is destiny.
Darwinian evolution itself can be characterized as increasing energy consumption and efficiency at the individual and species level. The key to biological evolution is to become better and better at capturing external energy supplies. The same goes for economic “evolution” if we think of the economy as an evolving organic system full of complex human beings.

Equilibrium? Wait…Whut?

Energy flux(change) is so fundamental to how our universe operates, yet a large amount of economic analysis depends on the incorrect idea that economies are in equilibrium or want to be in that state. The concept of equilibrium in physics or economics means a state in which essentially nothing happens. Unfortunately as Heraclitus and other ancient luminaries have often reminded us, change is the only constant.
We clamor for economic growth yet our experts’ models depend on the concept of equilibrium which is almost oxymoronic if our goal is growth. There is no growth or change in a state of equilibrium."
Energy, Money, And The Destruction Of Equilibrium | Zero Hedge

Crosspost, nobody is sure where Trump is going; Neocon Or Isolationist? Who Cares! The Future Is All About Russia, Iran, And China | Zero Hedge
It took the U.S. mint 3,000 bucks to release a report on how much gold the Treasury holds, "Then, finally, on 23 December 2016 the Mint delivered the documents I paid for. Sort of. Instead of 1,200 pages I received 223 redacted pages that contained 68 pages of reports I didn’t ask for and 21 pages that were copied twice. Effectively, I got 134 pages related to my FOIA request."
The report would have been much shorter if they just said; the gold is gone. US Mint Releases New Fort Knox "Audit Documentation": First Critical Observations | Zero Hedge

Energy flux density and society; https://larouchepac.com/energy-flux-density
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Old 03-02-2017, 09:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Nothing huge today, just more slipping.
"We have discussed the 60% debt ratio danger threshold in this article. But there is an even more dangerous threshold of 90% debt-to-GDP revealed in the Rogoff-Reinhart research. At that 90% level, debt itself causes reduced confidence in growth prospects — partly due to fear of higher taxes or inflation — which results in a material decline in growth relative to long-term trends."
"If inflation is allowed to rip to 4% and Fed financial repression can keep a lid on interest rates at around 2.5%, then it is possible to achieve 6% nominal growth" So, a growth in money supply is counted as GROWTH ??
Written by Jim Rickards,,, the SDR guy.

"My own thinking is that Fed is now in a tightening mode because even the die-hard Keynesians have finally come to realize that their money printing policies of QE1, QE2, the Taper, and QE3 all have failed miserably. So they are pretending that the economy is on the mend to give them cover to allow rates to rise in order to restock ammunition for the next major economic catastrophe."
3/02 US initial jobless claims drop to lowest in almost 44 years – Bloomberg
3/02 Data-dependent Yellen running out of reasons to delay hike – Bloomberg

So, Yellen is going to use these positive indicators to justify a raise in rates.
"Given their humanistic hubris, policy makers saw no harm in allowing debt to grow exponentially while income in the system grew at best in a linear fashion as the chart above illustrates.

Therefore, paradoxically, the more debt money that is created, once the system no longer can expand, the more insolvent and less liquid the system becomes"
“Looking back through more than a century of financial data, the long-term average P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has been about 15.

As of yesterday afternoon, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 stock index reached 26.5."

“That’s high– more than 75% higher than the long-term average.
“More importantly, since the 1870s, there have been a total of THREE periods in which the average stock P/E ratio was above 26.5.
“The first time was around the Panic of 1893.
“The second was around the 2000 dot-com crash.
“And the third was around the 2008 financial collapse."

“Right now, for example, the total size of the US stock market according to Federal Reserve data is $22.6 trillion.
“Meanwhile the total size of the US economy is $18.8 trillion. BS
“This puts the Buffett valuation at around 1.2, meaning the stock market is about 20% larger than the entire US economy.
“Historically speaking, this is expensive. Stock markets start getting into trouble when the ratio surpasses 1.0. (The Buffett ratio was 1.11 before the 2008 crash…)"

“General Motors made $16.5 billion from its ongoing business operations in 2016.
“But they had to spend an incredible $29 billion in capital expenditures just to sustain the business."
“In order to make ends meet, GM increased total debt by an incredible $40 BILLION over the last two years."
What Financial Disaster Awaits Us Next? - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

"Aren’t you glad that the Dow leaped to 21,000 today
.I mean, just three weeks ago its low for the day was 20,015. In fact, on November 22, 2016 the Dow crossed 19,000 for the first time. " Free money will do that.
"the President of the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari
,that his recent statement that “we are keeping our eyes open for asset prices to try and look for signs of bubbles”
Great graphs; https://media.wix.com/ugd/1f610b_d64...1eec3a76dc.pdf

“We don’t need a $54 billion increase in defense when the budget already is ten times bigger than that of Russia. We don’t need $6 trillion of defense spending over the next decade" Keynes said that we need perpetual war to keep the economy stimulated.
David Stockman: Trump Will Create a Debt Crisis Like Never Before | Fox Business

Across the pond, there is nothing but bad news for the bond market;

Brexit, United Kingdom: 24 June 2016. Vote Yes. Wow, never saw that coming! Oh, wait!
USA: 8 November 2016. Vote Chairman Trump. Wow, never saw that coming! Oh, wait!
Auxit, Austria: 4 December 2016. Vote Freedom Party (FPÖ). Close, so close.
Itexit, Italy: 4 December 2016. Vote ‘NO’, support Lega Nord (LN). You sensing a trend here?
Nexit, Netherlands: 15 March 2017. Vote Party for Freedom (PVV)

Gerexit, Germany: before 27 August 2017. Vote Alternative for Deutschland (AfD)

Swexit: Sweden, 9 September 2018. A vote for Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna)? Could it happen?
"Like it or not, Europe is actually the periphery of a collapsing star. That star is the United States."
"As with any collapsing star, ultimately the star will collapse but not before the periphery collapses first."
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Old 03-03-2017, 03:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Icarus, Humpty Dumpty,,, smoking dusted weed

Wolfgang Schäuble is the German minister who is hell-bent on punishing Greece and driving it out of the EU. Germany has done VERY well in the currency union. The EU was formed as a currency union that did NOT include a debt union. It was impossible to force both items down the throat of the Europeans at the same time. It was reckoned that the debt union would come after the inevitable collapse. Wolfgang Schäuble is adamant that the EU be held together.
Apparently, it never occurred to him that; the institution of a debt union would create a common bond market. This would create a perpetual transfer of money OUT of Germany. NOBODY wants Italian bonds. With a common debt market, they would have to buy "Italian" bonds.
With a one-size-fits-all interest rate, Germans would pay much higher interest rates to cover potential defaults from the weaker economies.

"However it is what happens after this blow off top phase that is more interesting: that is the moment the "Icarus" trade becomes the "Humpty Dumpty" trade."
" On March 15th the Fed will likely tighten for the 2nd time in 3 months.
As if that wasn't enough, March 15th is also the date of the Dutch election, and also when the US debt ceiling will be - hopefully - reinstated and immediately surpassed."
AMAZING chart; http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20rates_0.jpg
"Meanwhile, with US consumer confidence at 15-year highs, small business optimism at 12-year highs, US ISM at a very high 58, and European PMI’s at 6-year highs, " wtf are they smoking?
Bank Of America Sets A Date For The Market's "Great Fall" | Zero Hedge

Then, there is malware; https://arstechnica.com/security/201...und-the-globe/
"Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan said, in a note, the Fed may be worried it is going to overshoot on full employment " wtf are these people smoking?
Three reasons the Fed wants to hike rates in March
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Old 03-04-2017, 04:28 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Crypto currencies

Currently, pretty quiet.
MATASII has a pretty good article about the collapse of retail stores causing a collapse of retail property values. They think that the retail RE crash will be worse than the collapse of residential RE.

All the bankers and Central Banks are talking about starting up Digital currencies. Most of our sovereign currencies only exist in electronic form already. The complete loss of bearer currencies represents a complete transfer of control from the individual to the State. The State developed TOR for it's own uses, No Conspiracy Theory Needed: Tor Created for U.S. Gov't Spying | Network World

Bitcoin has had a LOT of problems;
"The cyber theft—the second largest by an exchange since hackers took roughly $350 million in bitcoins at Tokyo's MtGox exchange in early 2014—is hardly a rare occurrence in the emerging world of crypto-currencies.

New data disclosed to Reuters shows a third of bitcoin trading platforms have been hacked, and nearly half have closed in the half dozen years since they burst on the scene."
Risk of Bitcoin Hacks and Losses Is Very Real | Fortune.com
"Many like to say bitcoin, the protocol, was never hacked, but it was and very early on. Some clever unknown guy found on August the 6th 2010 an exploit which allowed him to “print” one billion coins or however much he liked – 184 billion."

"Organizations dedicated to advancing the technology and its adoption are emerging. They include E-Currency, the sole purpose of which is to promote “central bank-governed digital fiat currency.”
"Third, the paper makes a leap of faith to suggest that central bank-issued digital currency can bring trust to a trustless distributed ledger, and moderation to negative human instincts.

For instance, it makes a case for banks to serve as “trusted intermediaries” to verify ownership, and even to safely retain private keys. This without any reference to the separation of deposit and investment functions, or to fractional reserve banking.
Is any of this credible or desirable?"
"First, cash has played little or no part in the largest financial crimes in history.

These include the rigging of the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate (or ‘LIBOR’), in which several of the world’s most prominent banks were complicit and are responsible.
These institutions siphoned off gains from a derivatives market that was worth between US$300 and US$350 trillion. "

"Western creditors were morally and economically wrong about the African debt crisis in the 1980s and 1990s. They were wrong with the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s. They have been wrong with the crisis in the Eurozone.

They continue to misdiagnose the nature of the current “balance sheet recession.” You cannot overcome debt and debt trauma with more supply.
In each episode the negative human consequence has been large and multifold.
These are monumental failures."
"Their effects can be measured in the spike in suicides, social dislocation and delinquency, structural levels of unemployment and under-employment, inter-generational inequality, environmental degradation, demonisation of minorities, political reaction, and so on.
This is the backdrop against which we are invited to trust the banking system with central bank-issued digital currency against."

A couple of comments;
If you treat the digital Dollar and Bitcoin as currencies, then Bitcoin is far better, as there is a restraint on its issue. Digital Dollars are conjured out with absolutely no control over the quantity created.
Central Bank-Issued Digital Currency will never happen, because everyone could bypass the private banks. It would put - as even the Bank of England found in a study - our monetary system upside down. People would demand all their deposits in central bank digital currency, because you can transmit it to everyone and store it securely without banks. We would end up in a full reserve system. Never going to happen.

What could possibly go wrong with just adding some binary digits into somebody's account without adding value to a countries fake Gross Domestic Product ?
It's worked a treat so far.

We're going in to a credit collapse. Considering the blighted record, of banks, the State, and crypto currencies, it doesn't look like ANY of them engender trust. Rickards may talk up the SDR until our ears go numb but, at the end of the day, it can be produced in any quantity. Our trading partners aren't going to accept something that the West can conjure up without limit.
Wages have crashed,,, the consuming population has severely diminished, discretionary spending has crashed.
Crypto currency isn't even a bandage.

Remember, if Bloomberg and the bankers want it, you DON'T
The Monetary Reset: E Dollar Concept is Being Pursued by The BOE, PBOC, and Yes, The Fed.

Last edited by Danny B; 03-04-2017 at 04:30 AM. Reason: one more link
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Old 03-05-2017, 05:01 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Hopium and desperation in the Eccles building

Currently, the FED funds rate follows ~exactly the population of 15---62 year old consumers. The consumer base is falling. The FED funds rate is stuck on the floor trying to stimulate the economy. They are trying to use low-interest to stimulate increased spending. The credit system can't tolerate a shrinkage in consumption. In the run-up to the next FED meeting, we see that hopium is going to decide the day.
3/02 US initial jobless claims drop to lowest in almost 44 years – Bloomberg
#1 “Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labor force”
#2 “Over 43 million people are now living in poverty”
#3 “Over 43 million Americans are on food stamps”
#4 “More than one in five people in their prime working years are not working.

#9 “Our trade deficit in goods with the world last year was nearly 800 billion dollars”
11 Quotes From Trump?s Speech To Congress That Show That The U.S. Economy Is In A State Of Collapse

"A widespread movement into metals at this time would damage the Bank State and its umbrella organization, the Deep State, because their future profits require the control and progressive expropriation of the people’s money.
Therefore, a March rate hike is guaranteed, for three primary reasons. "
"Third, the Federal Reserve System is now 100% politicized, and run by sneaky, die-hard political ideologues who lie about why they do what they do and what they really think. Those who run the Fed are despondent that despite implementing for eight YEARS an interest rate policy specifically designed to enable Obama to create a totally false illusion of economic “recovery” by massively increasing government spending with trillions of phony, deficit, zero-interest-rate “dollars,”

"Therefore, the power- and money-obsessed functionaries at the Fed and within the Deep State, who all totally buy into the scorched earth agenda, are going to bring down the economy and markets, even if it means that every single private pension fund and the net worth of every non-connected citizen collapses with it."

"We believe that there is actually a more specific reason for the demonization of Russia than the above, usual suspects. This is a case where one should not just follow the money; one should follow the gold.

For the past fifteen plus years, physical gold supplies have been like Lazarus: they keep rising from the Dead. Just when it appears that a serious supply-demand imbalance is about to precipitate futures market delivery problems and therefore increased prices, supply miraculously appears out of nowhere to alleviate the shortage and stabilize or depress prices.

This surprise supply has primarily come from sovereign central banks: for example, 1,500 metric tonnes from one-time sound money nation Switzerland; 600 from France; 430 from the United Kingdom"
"The fact that the paper gold price manipulation fraud is reaching the end of the line due to deteriorating supply – demand fundamentals is exactly why we are seeing a radical, concurrent Deep State escalation of the War on Cash. "
Russia and China Team up Against Washington’s Gold Racket

The Central Banks sold off their gold (for paper that they can print without limit) for several years to depress the price (raise the perceived value of their currencies.
They are hard at work trying to block gold from being considered as a store of value.
NEW UNCOVERED INFORMATION: Why Central Banks Were Forced To Rig The Gold Market | Zero Hedge
"They’re practically hollering a March 15 rate hike. Coincidence? It seems more like an open-air conspiracy…
But will a March rate hike start the Fed on a destructive cycle? There’s evidence for it, as you’ll see shortly. But first that open conspiracy…"
"Their forecasts have been consistently wrong by orders of magnitude for years. Actual data show unemployment higher, growth lower and inflation lower than the Fed expects."
So, they get their rate hike and then,,,, are forced to walk it back. The prime interest rate is solidly tied to consumption by the (shrinking) consumer class.

If the FED raises rates, the dollar gets stronger.
" have warned that rates will rise BECAUSE the Federal Reserve will be criticized if they fail to do so when they are faced with a stock market that is rising. However, while one by one, several Fed officials have all signaled in recent days that the Fed is ready to resume raising interest rates as soon as this month, the real crisis for the Fed will be raising rates will strength the dollar and put even more pressure on Europe and emerging markets. Hence, the 64 billion dollar question is will the Fed abandon international policy objectives for domestic?"
If the FED raises rates, that will put pressure on European banks. Reportedly, a few European banks are owners of the FED.
"Domestic Policy Objectives will win out over International. This will only have the same impact of causing capital inflows for the dollar will rise. Yet the Fed has no choice. To do nothing will invite attacks by the Democrats who will say they are only helping the rich get richer watching the stock market rise irrespective of the economy. What we are facing is asset inflation FIRST. "
"nomy. What we are facing is asset inflation FIRST. That means Draghi and the ECB will be in even a more difficult position trying to maintain negative interest rates that have completely FAILED to revitalize the European economy. It has been 8 years of a complete brain-dead economic policy by the ECB." The EU and ECB are toast.

3/04 Eurozone capital flight intensifies: Target2 imbalances widen again – Mish
Raising rates will exacerbate the capital flight from both China and Europe. That means that NOBODY will be buying European bonds.
"Speculation began after Janet Yellen’s testimony to House and Senate committees last month. She said a solid job market and an overall improving economy suggested the Fed would likely resume raising rates soon. "
"Under my scenario, the stock market is headed for a brick wall in April or May" "My take is that the Fed is desperate to raise rates before the next recession (so they can cut them again)"
"the White House and Congress are moving toward fiscal stimulus, while the Fed is moving toward monetary tightening."

So, the FED desperately wants to raise rates so that they can lower them when the next recession hits. BUT, raising rates will bring on a huge market retraction.
The election of populists in France, Netherlands and Austria will send even more capital fleeing. The upcoming forced devaluation of the Yuan will cause more capital flight.
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Old 03-06-2017, 01:04 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,851
March of the muppets,,, bankruptcy of the FED GOV

The stock market just goes higher and higher. The fact that returns are terrible doesn't seem to dissuade investors (gamblers). The big boys have set all this up and they know when to get out. The mad stampede is slowing down and, they will get out in time. What about the little guy who only recently bought in?
"Investors poured $62.9 billion into exchange-traded funds in February, pushing the year-to-date world-wide tally to $124 billion, the fastest start of any year in the history of the ETF industry"
"All of the money is going into the cheapest and most boring ETFs. This is the retail investor getting back into the market with a vengeance,”
"Why is this a sign of a market top? Because small investors tend to trade on emotion rather than logic or expertise."

"And why are individual investors only the second dumbest money? Because governments are even less astute and more emotional than individuals, and their plunge into equities is just beginning. "
The Second Dumbest Kind Of Money Is Pouring Into Stocks - “With A Vengeance” - DollarCollapse.com

FED GOV is RAPIDLY running out of cash. It's near vertical on a graph.
"I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017. We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate. By summer, they will be out of cash."
"So, with two weeks left until the debt ceiling suspension expires, Treasury's cash balance plummeted to $109 billion this week as of Thursday"
Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises. Everything will grind to a halt."
This Is The Only Chart Americans Should Be Worrying About Right Now | Zero Hedge
6 weeks of cash left.

"The ObamaCare quandary. A fiasco for sure. Under it, not uncommonly, a family pays $12,000-a-year for a policy that carries a $5,000 deductible. That’s an interesting number in a land were most people don’t even have enough ready cash for routine car repairs. The cruel and idiotic injustice of such a set-up could only happen in a society that has normalized pervasive lying, universal accounting fraud, and corporate racketeering. "
"The average cost for a normal (non-surgical) hospital childbirth in America these days is $10,000. WTF? An appendectomy: between $9,000 and $20,000 depending on where. WTF? These days, a hip replacement runs about $38,000. "

"Last time I had a hip replacement, I received a single line-item hospital charge report from the insurance company that said: “Room and board, 36 hours… $23,000.” Say what? This was apart from the surgeon’s bill and the cost of the metal implant, just for occupying a bed for a day and a half pending discharge."
"Beyond the markets, grave problems with currencies and banks await an epochal readjustment in the value and price of everything. The event could easily shut down the global banking system for a period of time, and it’s liable to be an interruption that advanced economies can’t recover from"

"Here are some examples from the real world. In 1952, it cost $30 to have a baby in an excellent hospital. If we adjust that by official inflation as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistic's inflation calculator to 2017, the cost would be $275. ($1 in 1952 = $9.16 in 2017)."
" My father paid 1.8% of his wages for "hospital group insurance" in the early 1950s (for a household of four kids and two adults.) For someone earning $1,000 a week, the equivalent today would be $72 a month out of a monthly gross income of $4,000.
My spouse and I pay $1330 a month for barebones healthcare insurance in today's sickcare system."
This is an excellent article on the enormous cost of crony-capitalism, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Why Is the Cost of Living so Unaffordable?

"They and other central bankers have become the standard bearers of a system that can best be described as a reverse Robin Hood scheme, one that takes from the poor and gives to the Rich. It’s just that in this tale, the ‘poor’ means everybody not in the top 1%. "
"Step 4: Sit back and watch with glee as everyone with savings silently and steadily has their purchasing power transferred to the debtors, be those public or private entities. You see, lower real interest rates not only reduce the government's costs of servicing its debts, but they erode the real value the debts themselves. The government is deliberately killing the value of the money we've worked hard to earn and save, for the sole purpose of avoiding the consequences of its reckless borrowing. "

The PBGC guarantees about 24,000 pensions.
The clock is ticking for 71 penniless union pension funds that rely on a federal insurance company to support their retirees — because the agency itself is also running out of cash, its director said Wednesday."
"In order to keep afloat, PBGC doesn’t try to match a retiree’s union pension. The payouts are cut, often down to about one-third of what the worker is due.

{if the fund were to go broke] Retirees could expect to see their benefits slashed by 80%. In other words, less than one-eighth of the $570 average check PBGC is able to give Local 707 retirees now."

#9 “Our trade deficit in goods with the world last year was nearly 800 billion dollars”
Thanks to the blessings of having the reserve currency, we are spending ourselves down very slowly. It is a different story for Venezuela.
"The Venezuelan government only has $10.5 billion left in foreign reserves, which the government has been using in recent years to pay outstanding debts." " Venezuela will have to pay $2.1 billion by this April, and a total of $7.2 billion by the end of the year. "
"Inflation is expected to increase by 1,660% this year and another 2,880% next year"
Here in Los Angeles; http://laist.com/2014/09/19/los_ange...t_of_the_m.php
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Old 03-06-2017, 04:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,851
Stock crash,,, maybe gold,,, maybe

Maybe, if enough people write about the coming slaughter in the stock market, cautious people will make the right decision.
"It is also worth noting that over the past two weeks, BofA has caveated that while retail inflows are seemingly relentless, institutions and hedge funds have recently turned sellers into the rally, and are aggressively offloading to retail,"
"And then there is China.

As a recent NY Fed report pointed out, "China Accounts For Half Of All Global Debt Created Since 2005." This echoes what we have been writing about for years, starting back in 2013 showing "How In Five Short Years, China Humiliated The World's Central Banks", when we showed that in just the brief period since the financial crisis "Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined."

"Citi strategist, who writes that "continuing with the idea that market strength owes more to a wave of technical support than to fundamentals, we remain convinced that the recent explosion of credit in China – visible in the monthly total social financing numbers – is of greater global significance than is widely recognized." WHAT technical support?
Citi's Matt King: "We Think You Should Sell" | Zero Hedge

"Recent dramatic events at COMEX futures exchange, however, increase my level of confidence in my current forecast. As I reported last month, we saw a 729% increase in the demand for delivery of physical gold at COMEX during off-month of January 2017, year over year. This month (February) was a major delivery month, and there was another 230% increase in the delivery of physical gold bars. The huge increase in gross demand for actual physical gold bars is impressive. However, it is not the amount that was purchased but, rather, who was doing the buying that is the most important factor."

"The biggest banks in the western world continued to be the biggest physical gold bar buyers during February."
"HSBC, in particular, was the biggest single buyer this month. HSBC bought just over 10.62 tons worth of physical gold bars."
"J.P. Morgan was also one of the huge buyers this month."

"Oddly, CME, Inc. was also a significant buyer. It has consistently been a significant gold bar purchaser throughout 2016. Like Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Scotia and others, it has been stocking up. The exchange operator didn’t buy as many gold bars as a “too-big-to-fail” megabank, but its purchases were enormous, and way out of line from a historical perspective. Remember, the futures exchange operator is not a bank, a hedge fund or an independent investor. It has no obvious reason to buy physical gold bars"

"The exchange is contractually liable on any default in delivery by clearing members. There hasn’t been any default yet. However, the fact that the company is now buying so many gold bars implies that it is preparing for that to happen. "
"London gold dealers don’t have enough gold to meet demand. Most of the “gold” controlled by LBMA banks is actually not theirs. It is all “stored” under “non-allocated” storage contracts,. "

"Apparently, they’ve been selling and leasing the gold they don’t own for many years. All of it is spoken for, and there isn’t any left. With no stockpiles of their own, and facing the prospect of being cut off from the US Gold Reserve, they seem ready to default on metal delivery obligations. "
President Trump and Gold | AVERY B. GOODMAN BLOG
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