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  #1321  
Old 03-24-2016, 04:44 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Sr. Price,,, Butler,,, Hudson

Sr. Price and the Assignat; .:Plata:.

"But as mentioned above, to the extent that this wage convergence process is driven by monetary inflation, rather than natural, non-inflationary economic integration, the Cantillon effects discussed earlier result in wages converging downward rather than upward, implying a global wealth transfer from ‘owners’ of labour—workers—to owners of capital." http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...hn+Butler&mk=1

EXCELLENT article from Michael Hudson. A great explanation of the multitudes of parasites.
Michael Hudson on Debt Deflation, the Rentier Economy, and the Coming Financial Cold War | naked capitalism
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  #1322  
Old 03-24-2016, 03:16 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Too much oil

Energy is the master resource. The banks piled into energy for the huge returns. But, they overdid it on the greed angle. They have more oil than they know what to do with; Why Oil Prices Are About To Plunge Again: 31 Million Barrels In Floating Storage Are Coming On Shore | Zero Hedge

It is obvious that oil will go / stay down for a while. The banks have gotten tired of doing bridge loans to keep the oil sector alive. BUT, when they stop the loans, the SHTF.
A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Canadian Oil Company Liquidates Hours After Bank Demands Repayment | Zero Hedge
The banks can't make you borrow money and the State can't make you have kids. Japan is offering a bandaid to help the problem; 3/24 Japan plans un-depositable, non-cash "gift certificate" money drop to young people – Zero Hedge
After WW II, Japan was garrisoned and controlled. One of the control issues was ; they had to have lots of nuke power and produce lots of fuel for bombs.
Germany is a very poor candidate for wind & solar power. Germany is doing great at getting rid of their reactors. Japan has optimal conditions for wind and solar. But, their overlords demanded nukes. The damage from Fukushima is starting to get the attention of the whole world. Hopefully, the Japanese can switch over soon. Goldman Sachs is demanding that TEPCO restart the reactors because GS has sunk costs in nukes.
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  #1323  
Old 03-24-2016, 06:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The mega-parasite is trying to revive the host

Michael Hudson has an excellent analysis of how regulatory capture allowed the banks to fleece us. (Repost); Michael Hudson on Debt Deflation, the Rentier Economy, and the Coming Financial Cold War | naked capitalism
Charles Hugh Smith shows the outcome in clear detail; oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: What Killed the Middle Class?
They stole everything we had and now, want to give us free money.

The ghettoes, indian reservations and the reserves for the abos all have huge problems with alcohol and drugs. The huff gasoline if they can't get good drugs. Deep, down inside, nobody wants to live the worthless, pointless life. They choose slow suicide. Americans are hooked on anti-depressants. And, what is in anti-depressants? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppAVBtP-l5Y
The parasite is successfully killing the host.
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  #1324  
Old 03-26-2016, 01:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fleecing the workers won't save the host

Post-war, the West became a high-wage, high-price economy. The majority of the middle class sunk their savings in their houses. The wages have been falling for years. The banks have been trying to maintain the price and credit structure even though the wage structure has crashed. They extended our credit terms.
• Sweden Cuts Maximum Mortgage Term To 105 Years -The Average Is 140 (Tel.)
Here is a long-winded article from Jim Rickards talking about all the States doing currency devaluations close to simultaneously. The Dollar Has Been Shanghaied - The Daily Reckoning
This is a maxed-out effort to save the financial system. EFFING marvellous. A currency devaluation, seen from the street level, is just a cut in wages.

The bankers are running the show. They are bending over backwards to offer us more loans. We lost our jobs and spent our savings. We don't want any more debt. We don't want longer credit terms. We cut back our consumption, often involuntarily. Consumption has crashed. The corporatocracy is hard at work on various trade agreements that are designed to smash labor rates and bring back their previous big margins. The plan to use these agreements to kill or circumvent GOV regulations that protect the environment and / or workers. They have big plans to cut their overhead costs by driving down wages.
Somehow, it didn't occur to them that low wages will result in low consumption.
"General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt was charged by the president with a Herculean task: figuring out how to get big American firms to start hiring again. First, he says, we need "a sense of national urgency around jobs" and a government that's focused 100 percent on the task at hand."
Immelt, himself was responsible for outsourcing LOTS of jobs.

First, it was a short-sighted grab for increased profits using global-wage-arbitrage. We fell further. Lately, it has been a grasp for survival as we, necessarily, cut our consumption.
• Coming to the Oil Patch: Bad Loans to Outnumber the Good (WSJ)
• Junk Territory: US Corporate Debt Ratings Near 15-Year Low (CNN)
• Earnings Growth Based On Debt And Buybacks? Totally Unsustainable (SA)
That's what happens when wages leave,,, profits leave too.
3/25 Bankrupt banks brutally bleeding... worldwide – Gold-Eagle

3/25 Citing pension woes, S&P just cut N.J's credit outlook to negative – NJ.com
3/25 Countdown to insolvency begins for Chicago pensions – Zero Hedge
The record for Dem controlled States and cities is painfully bad.

EDIT;
"Today we have the foundations poured for the next crisis, and that crisis will be emanating from the public sector, as this is where all of the asymmetry has built up." GOV going broke.
"In Europe nationalism is on the rise… and why wouldn’t it be? Europe has ceded sovereignty to Brussels and Brussels has allowed Europe to completely lose control of it’s borders. Security is the first and foremost social contract a nation state has with its citizenry. That social contract lies in tatters and the ramifications will continue to be felt for years to come.

A heartfelt sorry to my European friends, but Europe as we know it today, is toast.
“One of the key problems today is that politics is such a disgrace, good people don’t go into government.” – Donald Trump

This article has a few graphs that show the good economic projections from GOV are always spectacularly wrong. Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time | Zero Hedge
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Last edited by Danny B; 03-26-2016 at 04:08 AM. Reason: more info
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  #1325  
Old 03-27-2016, 03:13 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Chinese devaluation,,, CB stupidity

Many years ago, it was claimed that the American economy was "de-coupled" from the Chinese economy. NOBODY claims that now. ALL governments are socialist,,, China, more-so. Since socialism is a consumption system, NOT a productive system, socialism requires central planning. In a true free market, planning is done by producers and consumers. China needed to do a very rapid buildup to avoid being over run by the West.
Since the "goals" of GOV are different than the goals of the average person, this central planning is always an aberration. They are always focused on desires rather that actual market demands.
This always results in malinvestment.

China built up far more production capacity that was needed. They buried the rest of the world with their cheap productivity. BUT, all this stuff was financed. Their export business is down 25%. They can't pay the loans.
"According to documents submitted to the Chinese Parliament, four especially moribund sectors (steel, coal, cement, and nonferrous) officially owe $1.56 trillion, which more than likely cannot be repaid."
More Bad China Debt News: SOE Defaults on $2.3B
You can bet that the true amount is much higher.

China desperately needs a devaluation to "adjust" their problems.
3/27 "If China devalues by 20% the world is over, everything hits a wall" – Zero Hedge

Politicians always buy votes by promising riches to their voters. The accepted solution was to have the central bank as a separate entity from the GOV. This, in theory, would allow the monetary authorities to rein in the spending errors of the politicians. The CB takes IOUs from the Treasury and gives it cash. The CB must then sell the IOUs. It must unwind it's treasury bond portfolio.
"6) The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion."
"5) The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1."
The Next Crisis Will Be THE Crisis | Zero Hedge

The banks all tried to survive even though the economy was shrinking badly. It bought them some time but, that time is running out; The Big Unwind Hits Investment Banking | Wolf Street
3/27 I love the smell of napalm in the market – True Sinews
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  #1326  
Old 03-27-2016, 03:52 PM
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Minimum wage

Capital has always had more "power" than labor. They buy the politicians and write the laws.
"There was a 1942 study that looked at the cottonseed industry and found that the minimum wage led to greater adoption of labor machinery and reduced employment levels,” Still true.
"The current minimum wage is the highest its ever been, but when adjusted for inflation, it actually hit its peak in 1968 at $1.60 an hour.

“Adjusted for inflation the highest minimum wage we’ve ever had was in 1968,” Saltsman said. “In 1968 it hit the high point at about $10.90 an hour in 2015 dollars."
This is the second of 2 articles on this page.
Read more: This Map Shows If You Live Near An Aging Nuclear Reactor | The Daily Caller
As long as other regions have lower wages, this tends to drive down wages worldwide. This is primarily true in manufacturing but, it also drives down wages in other sectors. The problem comes in that these low-wage competitors have FAR lower costs for housing. Our wages have to come up OR our cost of housing has to come down. The GOV safety net tends to support the price of housing even though we can no longer afford housing with our diminished wages.
Should the safety net fail, many (more) millions will be homeless.
Chinese money is flooding the housing market and driving up house prices in many markets,,, like Vancouver and Orange county. As aggregate Western wages continue to fall, new house construction continues to fall. Zoning laws aren't favorable to tiny houses because taxing authorities want big houses with BIG taxes. Property taxes, in general, are unfavorable to living on the cheap.
As more workers are displaced by cheap labor markets, GOV tries to raise taxes to support them. We will end up with 20 people on the dole living in a single-wide out in the boondocks
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  #1327  
Old 03-28-2016, 04:20 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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student debt, energy stocks,,, Russian stocks

It's often said; What can't go on forever, WON'T. "Student Debt 2030: 17 Trillion! " Confessions of a College Professor: Student Debt 2030: 17 Trillion!
It's pretty clear that all debt worldwide is inter-connected. China may blow all to hell first,,, who knows?
Then, there is the energy sector. The banks are deeply tied to the energy sector.
"using the S&P Energy Sector Index data, the sector's forward multiple is now an absolutely ridiculous, mindblowing 23x."

This was 14 months ago. Where do we stand now?

The snapshot answer comes courtesy of the latest Factset weekly earnings insight, according to which as of this moment, the forward P/E of the Energy sector is no longer "an absolutely ridiculous and mindblowing 23x".... it is, in fact, more than double that at 58.7x, which also happens to be more than four times higher than the 15 year average.

There is no longer a word to describe the lunacy where the forward P/E multiple was literally "off the chart" until the Y-axis was doubled."
OK, so double the Y axis and everything will be good.
I'm constantly asked when the SHTF. I always reply the same, it depends on who you are. For millions of people, it is already desperation time. Then, the question is clarified some. Then, I answer, "I don't know".
Armstrong; "Once the “confidence” in government cracks for the BULK OF THE SILENT MAJORITY who do not listen to money supply and conspiracy theories, then we move into game over"
"Everything hinges upon the “confidence” of the silent majority. They are starting to rumble. That is the key to the future. We are watching this beginning and that is Trump, precisely in line with out model calling for political chaos to emerge in 2016."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...icopter-money/
Additionally, Armstrong says; "That is when we will see assets rise as confidence shifts from a corrupt government for the majority will no longer trust then and they will turn to the private sector.”

I have trouble with this scenario. $ 15--20--25 trillion in hot money was pumped into the stock market. The P/E is up in nosebleed territory. Earnings are non-existent. There is no possible way for earnings to rise while wages and consumption are stagnant. Why would anybody be attracted to American stocks?
He did say to buy stocks. He didn't say which stocks.
Opinion: Russian stocks are a best buy amid global turmoil
Opinion: 5 reasons to be a contrarian and buy Russian stocks
Buy This Russian Stock For Double Gains Within Three years
Russia stocks traded on U.S. exchanges - BRICADR.com
Legendary Investor Jim Rogers: Buy Russian Stocks Fast!
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  #1328  
Old 03-29-2016, 04:56 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Cannibalism

My great, long post disappeared. Here is the short version. It is VERY important that you understand this article. The Great Ponzi Scheme of the Global Economy - The Unz Review
All the classical economists made a clear distinction between profits that resulted from an increase in productivity and profits that did NOT result from an increase in productivity.
The non-productive sector of the economy now claims that it has twice the value of the productive sector. https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...f516ddaedf.jpg
The economy has been hollowed out and trade is collapsing. "Worse Than 2008" World Trade Collapses To 10 Year Lows | Zero Hedge
The financial industry is sitting on enormous piles of debt notes that are claims on future productivity and services. This is "cerebral wealth". They believe that it has value.
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  #1329  
Old 03-30-2016, 04:34 AM
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Peak wages, peak consumption and peak debt

Concentration of Wealth Vs Political dysfunction What could be worse than the Great Depression? - Money and Markets - Financial Advice | Financial Investment Newsletter ? Money and Markets - Financial Advice | Financial Investment Newsletter

3/29 Commodities longs will "liquidate in unison," driving bulls off a cliff – Zero Hedge
3/29 It's official: The US oil surge was driven by the biggest short squeeze ever – Zero Hedge
• Barclays Warns Commodities May Slump in ‘Rush for the Exits’ (BBG)
3/28 23% of Americans in their prime working years are unemployed – Economic Collapse

Well, we reached peak-wages around 1969-1970. We reached peak-cheap-oil. We reached peak productivity several years ago. We reached peak employment. We have reached peak consumption and peak debt. We still haven't reached peak corruption but, hildebeest is making a valiant try.
After we reached peak wages, credit terms were extended way out. Debt grows much faster than productivity so the bankers had to continuously find new ways of taking our money.
Aggregate national income from productive enterprise has been falling steadily. Since consumption was falling, the financial sector just kept rolling over their paper,,, getting richer and richer. Wealth production keeps falling Our GDP keeps rising. There is less and less wealth being created but, the financial sector needs to liquidate ever-more of it to keep the credit bubble growing.
50% of the cost of everything is for finance. We have a huge overhead that precludes us ever being competitive in the world market. For every additional dollar of taxes, the economy shrinks by three dollars. Our profit and working-capital is being sucked out. It is used to satisfy interest payment on non-productive debt. When debt is incurred to pay for consumption and / or non-productive enterprise, there is little chance that it will be paid back. The FED is getting VERY nervous about the $ 4.5 trillion that we owe them.
The BRICs crashed down global wages. They wiped out their best customer. Now, they are trying to create a domestic consumer economy. The whole world is stuck with slave wages and the consumer economy is dead. No State can afford to unilaterally raise wages,,,, and lose market share. With the consumer economy gone, all we have left is the "Amish economy". We are stuck in a downward spiral of wages and consumption. We reached into the future to spend tomorrow's wages,,, today. Then, we lost our job and tomorrow's wages never materialized.
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  #1330  
Old 03-31-2016, 04:52 AM
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Bogus treasury sales, Europe has no future

"One by one, nearly all Treasury buyers have ceased buying (net) US Treasury's.
As each group of buyers ceases their purchases leaving an ever smaller pool of potential buyers, interest rates have fallen further in contradiction to market fundamentals?!?
Since QE3 was fully "tapered" (no further net new Fed purchases), all foreign buying has simultaneously ceased.
The only remaining buyers are the US intra-governmental purchases but primarily the US public (US banks, US pensions, US insurers, US private citizens).
Since the completion of the Fed's taper in November 2014, the US public has undertaken the greatest Treasury buying spree in history "
Jim Willie made it clear, the FED is buying all Treasury issuance.
Hambone's stuff: Treasury Buying Mystery - Does Treasury Data Imply the Treasury Market is a Fraud!?!

• The US Is in for Much Greater Civil Unrest Ahead (Dent)
• Bonfire of the Commodities Writedowns is Just Starting (BBG)
• Eurozone ‘Flying On One Engine’: S&P (CNBC) "youth unemployment amounts to 23% in the EZ and is far higher in crisis countries, such as Greece (48%), Spain (45%) and Italy (39%). In the future, Europe must cope with a ‘lost generation." "general government gross debt soared from 70% to 93% in 2013. It remains at threat levels in Greece (169%) and Portugal (130%) and excessively high in Italy (135%) and France (135%), even Spain (98%)."
The End Of Europe As We Know It? | Zero Hedge

As if Europe doesn't have enough domestic problems, they are importing problems; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...pe-is-burning/
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  #1331  
Old 03-31-2016, 03:06 PM
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Harry Dent sets the date.

" world's super-bagman" UNAOIL: THE COMPANY THAT BRIBED THE WORLD
Never forget, your e-mails are forever. Something the hildebeest has recently learned.
Harry Dent; "I think the worst will be over by 2020, but the worst of that will be by the end of 2017."
Trend Forecaster's Dire Warning: Massive Crash Will Wipe 12,000 Points Off Dow Jones By Late 2017
More layoffs; " As you will see below, corporate defaults are currently at the highest level that we have seen since 2009."
Corporate Debt Defaults Explode To Catastrophic Levels Not Seen Since The Last Financial Crisis

3/31 Simple math shows America is headed for an economic disaster – Daily Reckoning
Our standard of living is the GDP divided by the population. Our actual GDP is probably only 1/3 of what is claimed. When the FIRE economy crashes, our standard of living goes with it. All those people who were living off their portfolio will no longer be spending any money. NOBODY is buying Treasury debt. If / when this precipitates a crash, Both the public and private sector will stop spending.
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  #1332  
Old 03-31-2016, 10:17 PM
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Hussman on stocks

"Using basic mathematical relationships which have held for over 100 years of stock market performance, Hussman concludes a run of the mill reversion to the mean will result in a 50% stock market loss. In order to reach a secular low in valuations, we would experience a 73% loss from here. That seems inconceivable to a population of normalcy bias blinded, iGadget distracted, math challenged CNBC believers. Will you let cognitive dissonance rule your decision making or will you use reason to understand the peril directly ahead?"

"Given the current dividend yield on the S&P 500 actually exceeds 2%, the historically run-of-the-mill expectation from current valuations is that the S&P 500 Index itself will be below current levels 12 years from today, in 2028."
WORST CASE SCENARIO = 73% DOWN FROM HERE « The Burning Platform

• China Ends This Quarter With The World’s Worst-Performing Stock Market (BBG)
• Growth Of Fintech Forecast To Spur Almost 2 Million Banking Job Cuts (FT)
• Pathocracy: The Rise Of The Political Psychopath (Whitehead)
• Europe Is Too Important To Be Left To Its Clueless Rulers – Varoufakis (Tel.)
3/30 The inevitable is now imminent
3/30 U.S. private sector adds 200,000 jobs in March: ADP – Yahoo!
3/31 Jobless claims hit 276,000 vs. 265,000 estimate – CNBC
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  #1333  
Old 04-01-2016, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Paying for previous promises.... Davidson

FED GOV made a LOT of promises when times were better. Times have changed, Our lock on manufacturing has crashed. The demographic crash is getting worse. The core population is falling. All those promises have gotten very expensive.
"Prior to 1950, the amount required to fund federal pensions [P] was relatively small. In fact, it didn’t exist as a budgetary item until 1922. Pensions became a significant expense during the 1960s. In 2015, it consumed over 25% of the federal budget."
"Health Care [HC] was a minor budgetary item until 1966, the year following the enactment of Medicare. It has been rising steadily since then and was the largest budget category in 2015 (27.9%)."
A great graph showing how fast these 2 items are growing; http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mikep...1-1200x502.jpg
Keep in mind that the deficit is growing by about $ 1 trillion a year. The negative net worth of US GOV is growing at about $5 trillion a year. Any fracture in public finance would crash both pensions and medical care.

The Keynesian wet dream is an end to all interest charges,,, "euthanasia of the rentier". It may sound good. It may even work. BUT, getting from here to there involves continued ZIRP to kill off the existing economy. That means wiping out ALL funds including pension funds. Oregon PERS unfunded liability swells to $21 billion | News - Home
Grandpa is going to be very pissed off if he has to give up golf and take up begging.

Imploding Pensions Take The Rest Of US Down With Them
"And this, remember, is at the tail end of an epic bull market in financial assets. If pension plans aren’t fully funded now, they’ll fall into an abyss in the coming correction. "
GOV has to cut pensions OR cut current workers. "The result: everyone gets poorer. Or more accurately, everyone discovers that they were never as rich as they thought they were" This is just another twist on the downward spiral.
Davidson, 20 unquestionable charts; $10 Oil Will Trigger Economic Collapse, Warns Economist - The Sovereign Investor
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  #1334  
Old 04-01-2016, 04:23 AM
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Can a cashless society survive hackers?

Western society is so open that it has NO way to deal with domestic terrorists.
What about Western banking? "February 5, the first Friday of the month, saw the Federal Reserve Bank, and more precisely its customer, the central bank of Bangladesh, ripped off to the tune of $81 million. No one knows who took it, or where the money ended up" "Of the $1 billion in requests, only $81 million went through by then, with another $20 or so million stopped by Deutsche Bank, which noticed an obvious spelling error in one of the requests, and halted it. The rest of the money went through, hit casino accounts in the Philippines, and just disappeared." Saved by a spelling error?

"But a cashless society with an insecure digital system is doubly cursed, both obliged to participate in a system which gravely undermines their personal liberty, and to watch with no real recourse as their wealth is siphoned off by thieves."
3/31 Hackers breach law firms, including Cravath and Weil Gotshal – Wall St Journal
3/26 What came first, bitcoin or ransomware? – News BTC
3/25 Hackers robbed the US gov't, are you next? – Casey Research
3/21 Cyber warfare shows scary signs of where malware is headed – Hack Read
3/19 FBI to car owners: Watch out for hackers – CNBC
3/19 Cyber war — bigger than ever — is here to stay – Washington Post
3/18 Unbreakable TeslaCrypt Ransomware forces users to pay Bitcoin fee – Bit Coinist
3/15 Chrome ad blocker found to steal bitcoins – Silicon Angle
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  #1335  
Old 04-02-2016, 07:19 PM
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hopefully, market forces will kill fission power

Just for a change, I have a tiny bit of good news. There are about 435 commercial nuclear reactors in the world with about 60 in the planning stage. There are many thousands of fuel rods that need to be reprocessed and are a great danger. GOV is NOT good about telling us about the danger; 10 Devastating Radiation Accidents They Never Tell You About - Listverse
Oil is crashing but, this doesn't seem to stop wind and solar. Wind looks to make good strides in the future. Market forces choose wind power | TheHill
There is an increasing awareness of the contamination of soil and farmland from coal ash. China has it especially bad because they don't use good smokestack scrubbers. China is adding so much wind power that they have had to take a break to build more transmission lines.
Natural gas will remain cheap for a long time. Hopefully, NOBODY will build new fusion of fission plants.
True, the Farnsworth Fusor looks great but, I just don't trust GOV.
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  #1336  
Old 04-02-2016, 07:35 PM
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End of the debt super-cycle

Here is a good article on the FED "put". It is all about the winding down of the credit super-cycle; 2016: The End Of The Global Debt Super Cycle | Zero Hedge
Kiyosaki seems to think that mandatory liquidation of reterement funds for people who hit 70 1/2 years old will cause big problems. I'm not convinced; Why 'Rich Dad' Author Predicts a Looming Market Collapse | Birch Gold Group

Another coin in the fuse box – Credit Bubble Bulletin
4/02 Defiant China slaps steel tariffs on Britain as trade war looms – Telegraph First the currency war,, then, the trade war.
4/02 N.J. pension debt grew to $43.8B last year – NJ.com
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Old 04-03-2016, 02:55 PM
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The markets HAVE turned, cheap oil is running out

Every time that stocks went down, the FED, et al swooped in and bought up enough to keep prices from getting ugly. This is the FED "put". Eventually, investors started to notice that valuations were high but, earnings were non-existent. This worked for a while but, the effects are wearing off.
"The bottom line is that the Fed must keep asset prices up because assets are collateral for potentially deflationary systemic debt. "
Well, the divergence between asset prices and growth has gotten so strong that nobody wants to hang around; Shuffling The Deckchairs On The USS Perpetual Growth | Zero Hedge

Here is a graph that shows how extreme our current bubble is; http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...5-inverted.png
The market is winding down and the debt cycle HAS rolled over; NYSE Margin Debt Falls Again: More Confirmation of a Major Market Turning Point Last Year? | Doug Short | FINANCIAL SENSE

Wikileaks just tossed a firecracker in the hornet's nest; Wikileaks Reveals IMF Plan To "Cause A Credit Event In Greece And Destabilize Europe" | Zero Hedge

TOO MANY GOV morons still believe that Keynes was the path to follow. AND, "On the eve of World War II, Keynes delivered the following chilling address [6] on the BBC, talking about the "grand experiment" of curing unemployment through war expenditure:"
"The Coming War Will Solve Our Unemployment & Growth Problem"

Trump has a bit of advice on stocks; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-invest-stocks
We used petro-dollar finance to thrash the rest of the world. The R.O.W. has cheap oil and we do not. While most of the oil producers are suffering from low prices, they are in general agreement that they must pump like crazy to kill the petro-dollar and the runaway war machine. "They" are holding down the price of oil and U.S. oil is crashing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...2-months-video

The oil barons very much dislike socialism and Marxism. There is an ENORMOUS amount of oil in the North Slope. The oil barons refuse to build a second pipeline that was planned decades ago. They don't want to facilitate our slide into socialism. The North Slope oil is hot and has sand. It abrades the pipeline. The pipe varies between 7/16 and 5/8 wall thickness and operates at about 300 psi. It is starting to get thin. The original pipe was to be used for natural gas and the replacement pipe was to carry oil.
The gas is all currently re-injected into the caverns.
i've driven along most of the pipeline from Valdez to Prudhoe Bay. Pretty interesting.
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Old 04-04-2016, 07:23 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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First Monaco, now Panama

Regulatory capture has meant that banks and GOV work (steal) hand-in-hand. What happens if banks are rich and GOV is broke? The PTB are presumed to be above the law. BUT, some of the PTB are competitors. As the economy winds down, some of them appear to be snitching. Last week, GOV raided the heart of corruption in Monaco.
Authorities in Monaco raid oil firm HQ in corruption investigation | Business | The Guardian

Now, there is a new leak that is supposed to be 100 times larger than Wikileaks. " By one estimate -- based on data from the World Bank, IMF, UN, and central banks of 139 countries -- between $21 and $32 trillion is hiding in tax havens"
"But a new trove of secret information is shining unprecedented light on this dark corner of the global economy. Fusion analyzed an archive containing 11.5 million internal documents from Mossack Fonseca’s files, including corporate records, financial filings, emails, and more, extending from the firm's inception in 1977 to December 2015. The documents were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and shared with Fusion and over 100 other media outlets by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) as part of the Panama Papers investigation."
Shell Companies
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Old 04-05-2016, 03:51 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Gloomy pension outlook

"Since '00, the core population of 25-54yr/olds has risen by 4.6 million (4%) and full time jobs among them have declined by a half million". The old folks see that they won't get a pension. They aren't retiring and there are not many openings. "nearly all population growth is simply the old living longer. This will only get worse." Great graphs;
Hambone's stuff: Ominous Population, Job, & Housing Trends
Pension benefits were negotiated when times were good. Those times are gone; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...of-bankruptcy/

"When 50% of all households over the age of 55 have $12,000 or less in retirement savings, they aren’t retiring. When even the over 55 households that did save only have $100,000 of retirement savings, they aren’t retiring. That will last them a couple years at most, when their life expectancy is 20 to 30 years. "
THE BOOMER RETIREMENT MEME IS A BIG LIE « The Burning Platform
"while the median income had fallen by 13% from 2004 levels over the next decade, expenditures had increased by nearly 14%." One-Third Of All Americans Don?t Make Enough Money To Even Cover The Basic Necessities « InvestmentWatch

"21:45 US Debt May Reach $20 Trillion Before Obama's Out" World Depression Coming by 2017: Stocks, Currency, Immigration Problems – John Rubino Interview | Crush The Street

There is less and less money to go around. Soon, the poor will be fighting over it; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ots-everywhere
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Old 04-06-2016, 02:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The slope is getting steeper

The world birth rate is going down; Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) | Data | Graph
There are far fewer young people,, far fewer couples setting up a household,,,FAR more old people spending down their savings. The boneheads in charge are trying to grow the economy while population and productivity are shrinking.
How about good jobs? "The present 12.3 million manufacturing jobs is the same # the US had as of July 1941 " Hambone's stuff: US Manufacturing Jobs Have Rebounded...Back to Pre-WWII Levels
VERY interesting article linking the Nikkei to the S&P 500 When Does The U.S. Stock Bubble Burst: The Best Hedge Fund Of 2016 Has A Surprising Answer | Zero Hedge
This model would assume the S&P would then trade somewhere between 1400 and 1600

The default rate in junk bonds is expected to hit 40%. That makes it numerically impossible to profit from the junk bond market. LOTS of people are piling in anyway. One Junk Bond Analyst's Catastrophic Forecast For What Is Coming
An EXCELLENT article on "time preference". The Path to the Final Crisis |
Japan is CLEARLY showing the world that there is no escape and no growth if population is falling. You can't fudge the numbers on credit and growth unless you have a rising population to mask the bad news. http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/g...06&widgetid=39

"#19 Our government debt continues to spiral out of control. At this point it is sitting at a staggering total of $19,218,516,838,306.52, but when Barack Obama first entered the White House it was only 10.6 trillion dollars. That means that our government has been stealing an average of more than 100 million dollars an hour from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day"
"#5 S&P 500 earnings have now fallen a total of 18.5 percent from their peak in late 2014.
#7 The average rating on U.S. corporate debt has fallen to “BB”, which is lower than it has been at any point since the last financial crisis."
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...six-months-ago
"“not in the labor force” (93.9 million), that gives us a grand total of 102 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now"

"perhaps you should consider that the Federal Reserve also considers the government unemployment number to be so inaccurate that they secretly have been calculating the unemployment rate on their own…" http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...s-a-good-thing

John Rubino has a good vid; http://www.crushthestreet.com/videos...bino-interview
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Old 04-06-2016, 02:39 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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More on the Panama Papers

Panama Papers (P/P) Leak Exposes Western Journalism
Panama Papers - Britain At Center Of Tax Avoidance
Panama Papers Show Massive Scale Of UK Offshore Links
Top Tory - P/P Crackdown Would 'Destroy Bankers' Livelihoods' !
You get the idea. Then, there is this!
THE PANAMA PAPERS: AN NWO SCAM
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Old 04-06-2016, 04:24 PM
aljhoa aljhoa is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny B View Post
Panama Papers (P/P) Leak Exposes Western Journalism
Panama Papers - Britain At Center Of Tax Avoidance
Panama Papers Show Massive Scale Of UK Offshore Links
Top Tory - P/P Crackdown Would 'Destroy Bankers' Livelihoods' !
You get the idea. Then, there is this!
THE PANAMA PAPERS: AN NWO SCAM
Shariah Law vs. the Constitution

Article VI: The Constitution is the supreme law of the land

Constitution: Article VI: “This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall
be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the
Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every
State shall be bound thereby”
Shariah: “The source of legal rulings for all acts of those who are morally responsible is
Allah.” (a1.1, Umdat al-salik or The Reliance of the Traveller, commonly accepted work of
Shariah jurisprudence); “There is only one law which ought to be followed, and that is the
Sharia.” (Seyed Qutb); “Islam wishes to destroy all states and governments anywhere on the
face of the earth which are opposed to the ideology and program of Islam regardless of the
country or the nation which rules it. The purpose of Islam is to set up a State on the basis of
its own ideology and program.” (Seyed Abul A’ala Maududi)

Second Amendment: Right to self-defense

Constitution: Second Amendment: "The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not
be infringed."
Shariah: Under historic and modern dhimmi laws, non-Muslims cannot possess swords,
firearms or weapons of any kind.


more @ https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy....nstitution.pdf


Al
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Old 04-07-2016, 03:25 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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No funding for the number one parasite

GOV pensions are looking to crash badly. If you aren't in GOV, you can expect; "In fact, estimates of current retirement savings show that millennials may have to work until they're 73 years old." US government $7 trillion pension shortfall - Business Insider

You can buy ransom-ware for just $ 100. Buying Bitcoin Ransomware For US$100 On The Darknet BUT just how much destabilization can the financial system take? Rotten to the Core |
Greece has lost 1/3 of their GDP; Yanis Varoufakis Issues A Major Warning To The Greek People | Zero Hedge

In a general sense, everyone who depends on a pension is going to get screwed. The upper loop of the economy squeezes more and more out of the lower (productive) loop. Production & consumption fall as financialization grow.

During the good times, people have more children and population grows faster. What do you do with all those "extra" people when the bad times come? Nightmare Is Coming True: Debt Spiral Grips Both, Pemex and Mexico. « InvestmentWatch

When man moved from the agrarian economy to the industrial economy, his purchasing power went way up. Men are now moving OUT of the industrial economy; "The present 12.3 million manufacturing jobs is the same # the US had as of July 1941 "
There are roughly, 102 million Americans of working age who are not employed.

Until recently, GOV borrowed money to support non-producers. "stealing an average of more than 100 million dollars an hour from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day"
The deficit is expected to hit $ 20 trillion before obummer leaves office, SO, that isn't working out too well.
The $ 212 trillion of unfunded liabilities are gradually demanding more and more real cash; https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...are--PR_346878

The financial system has noticed this and is now betting AGAINST GOV. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...lan040516.html
SO, not only has finance abandoned GOV, it is now betting against it. Predatory finance hollowed out the productive economy. With the death of the productive economy, it is now in the late stages of cannibalism.
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Old 04-08-2016, 12:36 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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P/P and Iceland... The best minds in energy

The Icelandic government put bankers in jail. The Prime Minister has just got the boot and the bankers are out of jail,,, possibly a warning to GOV not to do anything to bankers; Days After Iceland's PM Resigns Over "Panama Papers", Its Bankers Are Released From Jail Years Early | Zero Hedge
The financial system has a stranglehold on oil and gas. BUT, the equation works both ways. Investments in carbon energy continue to crash. The oil industry keeps predicting a rebound in prices. This is done so that the big banks can unload their energy portfolios onto stupid muppets.

Great quotes from an article on future energy;
"The reason solar-power generation will increasingly dominate: It’s a technology, not a fuel.
The best minds in energy keep underestimating what solar and wind can do. Since 2000, the International Energy Agency has raised its long-term solar forecast 14 times and its wind forecast five times. Every time global wind power doubles, there's a 19 percent drop in cost, according to BNEF, and every time solar power doubles, costs fall 24 percent."
"The world's first coal superpower, the U.K., now produces less power from coal than it has since at least 1850."
Wind and Solar Are Crushing Fossil Fuels - Bloomberg

The best minds in energy keep underestimating what solar and wind can do.
The best minds in banking seem to have made the same mistake.
As we slid towards a global-mean-wage, consumption fell. The oil producers pumped more to make up for falling income. They tried to make up for falling price by increasing volume. The advent of fracking coupled with increased pumping threw the supply side into chaos. Electricity consumption is falling at the same time that wind & solar are chipping away at the market share of carbon.
As R.O.I. gets shorter and shorter for wind & solar, the market for carbon will continue to shrink. First coal, the oil,,, eventually gas. It would be nice if fission reactors disappeared completely. As the true cost of de-commissioning a reactor becomes more clear, nobody will want to build them.
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Old 04-08-2016, 02:46 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Socialism breeds irresponsibility

Socialism appears to be a good idea but, human nature seems to be it's undoing. Chicago is a socialist paradise with VERY strong gun laws. It is also a murder capital. Venezuela is another socialist paradise with very strong gun laws. Nobody except the police are allowed to have guns. Caracas is a very dangerous murder capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOQb7Y5QVO8
It's a question of responsibility. If nobody is held responsible or accountable, everything falls apart. This is also true for the corporate level. As corporate immunity gets more pervasive, corporate corruption gets more pervasive; You are being redirected...

Politicians are another prime example of irresponsibility when it comes to spending "other people's money". European politicians voted for a very generous welfare system without creating a funding source. American politicians created a welfare system (SS) with a funding mechanism but, then raided the fund to pay for wars.
Power corrupts and the corrupted have the keys to the treasury.

They create unlimited credit to escape the limitations of "living within one's means". It works for a while but, eventually blows up. On a gold standard, we had slow steady growth. After escaping the gold standard, we have boom and bust. How Unsound Money Fuels Unsound Government Spending
Hard-working people don't have any attraction to socialism. Irresponsible layabouts think that it is a great system. No matter how great socialism sounds, human nature eventually brings it crashing down.
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Old 04-08-2016, 03:20 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Monetary Viagra running a printing press in hyperdrive

4/08 Helicopter money "not on the table," ECB says twice today! – Wolf Street
So, you can take this as confirmation.
4/07 JPM, ECB hint at arrival of "helicopter money" in Europe – Zero Hedge
"It's Coming Apart At The Seams" - US Equities Plunge As Deutsche-Lehman Analog Looms | Zero Hedge
4/08 Move your money "underground" before the global bank run begins – Casey Research
Mario Draghi isn't so "super" any more. Draghi Has Ruined Europe | Zero Hedge
4/07 Time to stop dancing with equities on a live volcano – Telegraph That has a real "ring" to it.
4/07 Shocking statistic: over 40% of student borrowers don't make payments – Zero Hedge I believe that the principle is $ 1.2 trillion.
4/07 Tech bubble 2.0 is bursting – Most Important News Bring out the popcorn.

The banks did irresponsible lending figuring that GOV would rescue them and dump it on the taxpayers. GOV is now broke and there is nobody to pick up the bill. The pixelated printing presses are running in hyperdrive on monetary Viagra trying to stop the financial cannibalism.
We are creating less and less wealth with more and more claims on it. What could go wrong?
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Old 04-08-2016, 07:17 PM
aljhoa aljhoa is offline
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This is how it works: when they print quite a lot of this stuff there is a boom.
When they print too much of it, there is inflation (actually, the printing of money is inflation).
When they stop printing it or simply hold on to it, there is a depression.

As long as the people keep slaving away and let the bankers give them pieces of paper or
blips on a computer screen in exchange for their blood, sweat and tears, everything is fine.

But if a nation begins to wake up to the con and
starts pushing back it is visited by a color revolution,
cultural invasion, or simply bombed back into the Stone Age.


That’s it.
You now understand economics.

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/327191-sw...an-referendum/

Al
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Old 04-09-2016, 02:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Falling retruns,,, dumping MBSs

Bonds are crashing; Chart Of The Day: Global Bond Yields Reach All-Time Low | David Stockman's Contra Corner
Yellen is trying to keep stocks from crashing even though earnings are crashed; Yelling ‘Stay’ In A Burning Theater—–Yellen Ignites Another Robo-Trader Spasm | David Stockman's Contra Corner
The FED wants to dump MBS derivatives; US Federal Reserve to Trim Assets, Dump Mortgage Backed Securities
4/07 Negative rates could trigger another housing bubble – SafeHaven
So, the FED is using negative rates to blow a RE bubble that will allow it to unload toxic paper before it blows all to hell.
The FED is going to have an emergency meeting monday; Fed To Hold Closed, Unexpected Meeting Under "Expedited Procedures" On Monday To Discuss Rates | Zero Hedge
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Last edited by Danny B; 04-09-2016 at 02:15 PM. Reason: more info
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Old 04-09-2016, 02:57 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Injecting trash into the system to fix it

Both socialism and crony-capitalism require endless growth. Same for Keynesian economics and our entire credit system. Population growth crashed in the developed countries. America was able to open it's southern borders and "poach" immigrants from Latin America. That is more or less exhausted because they have drastically lowered their birth rate. It appears that we are in the process of poaching immigrants from muslim countries. Considering the experience of France, it doesn't seem like a good idea. Marseille battles image as France's murder capital - BBC.com

Determined to prove their stupidity, German politicians are working to bring in lots of uneducated immigrants who will forever be a drain on the system and drastically raise the crime rate. What is their rationale?
Here comes the great fallacy, "Germany would need 470,000 immigrants, ready to join the pool of taxpayers, each year between now and then to offset the demographic decline"
These muslims will NEVER be contributing taxpayers. It takes a special kind of STUPID to believe that they ever would.

https://www.rt.com/news/244873-germa...ant-workforce/
The developed nations are facing a demographic crash and think that they need lots of new taxpayers to support the old folks. Bringing in unproductive trash isn't going to fix anything. Immigration not going to stop Germany?s demographic problem | News | DW.COM | 20.01.2016

America has Disneyland, cute girls, and lots of good beaches and we attract lots of talented people who bring a lot of money, investment and profit; H-1B Visa Cap Reached in Less Than a Week | Inc.com
BUT, This only temporarily addresses the problem of jobs. There aren't many and the number is falling all the time. There is NO solution.
Singularity University: The Harvard of Silicon Valley Is Planning for a Robot Apocalypse - The Daily Beast

GOV provides lots of wars and other make-work jobs but, it still isn't enough. The CBs print lots of money but it can't trickle down without jobs. The money concentrates at the top where it can't "turnover".
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Old 04-10-2016, 03:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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A huge brown glob is getting closer to the fan

Sun Tzu, "you must appear strong when you are weak and weak when you are strong". China is looking pretty scary; BofA Notices Something Troubling: China's Debt Bubble Has Burst | Zero Hedge
America is looking pretty scary; 'Everything Is Being Sold' - Smart Money Selling Soars, Now In 10th Straight Week | Zero Hedge
Reggie Midleton; "In January of 2008, I warned (in exquisite detail) of the collapse of Bear Stearns. It was 2 months before Bear Stearns actually fell, while it was trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies. "
"Watch as I Call the Next Bear Stearns, Again!"
So Called "Trusted Parties", Bank Collapse, the ECB and Blockchains: Watch as I Call the Next Bear Stearns, Again! | Zero Hedge

Turkey kinda has Russia bottled up by the Bosporus Strait. The obvious answer is to just dig a canal around them. https://www.rt.com/business/338901-r...caspian-canal/
Jim Willie says that April promises to be an exciting month. Shanghai, Satanists and Celebration of Fire

U.S. GOV negative net worth increases by 5$ trillion a year with close to $ 20 trillion in nominal debt and $ 230 trillion in unfunded liabilities. China has no GOV debt. That should allow them a lot of wiggle room,,, especially when combined with their stash of gold.
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