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  #3421  
Old 08-22-2019, 03:54 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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EU stimulus,,,media ramping up the blame game for Trump prior to the blowup and ele

Germany was the bog cho cho pulling Europe.
8/21 Germany sells world’s first 30-year negative yielding bond… and it’s a failure – ZH
8/21 Germany likely to head into recession, central bank warns – Guardian
8/18 Germany’s Scholz: don’t expect higher interest rates for years – Reuters

8/21 More eurozone stimulus expected after inflation revised down – WaPo

Yep, massage the numbers if you need to justify pumping in more liquidity. The banks say, "If we just had more money, we would be able to start lending into the economy again."
They need the money to roll-over all their bad paper from all the defaults.
8/21 Iran plans currency devaluation – GATA
Iran plans to knock off 4 zeros off the Rial notes.
"If passed by parliament and approved by lawmakers, Iran's central bank would in effect devalue the rial "
YES, absolutely ! Give the money renters time to switch into another currency before it goes into effect. They'll buy Roubles, dollars and gold. The Rial will crash even further when there is no demand for it in the FX markets.

Trump is NOT playing games when it comes to opioid production coming from China.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...tion-crackdown
" Treasury Targets Chinese 'Kingpins' In Opioid Distribution Crackdown
The Zheng DTO even agreed to manufacture adulterated cancer medication, creating counterfeit pills that replaced the active cancer-fighting ingredient..."


SHALE OIL NEXT VICTIMS: The Major Oil Companies
by SRSrocco - Aug 21, 2019 1:30 pm
As the situation continues to deteriorate for the small to mid-sized shale operators, the next victims will be the major oil companies.

"The fact is, the pattern the media is following today matches almost exactly with the pattern they followed leading up to the credit crash of 2008. Make no mistake, a financial crash is indeed happening RIGHT NOW, just as it did after media warnings in 2007/2008, and the reasons why the MSM is admitting to it today are calculated."
"Alan Greenspan even admitted partial responsibility, saying the Fed knew there was a bubble, but was "not aware" of how dangerous it really was. This was a lie. According to Fed minutes from 2004, Greenspan sought to silence any dissent on the housing bubble issue, saying that it would stir up debate on a process that “only the Fed understood”

"According to the evidence, which I have outlined in-depth in previous articles, central banks and international banks sometimes engineer crash events in order to consolidate wealth and centralize their political power even further. Is it a conspiracy? Yes, it is, and it's a provable one.

When they do finally release the facts, or allow their puppet media outlets to report on the facts, it seems that they allow for around 6-8 months of warning time before economic shock events occur. In the case of the current crash in fundamentals (and eventually stocks), the time may be shorter. Why? Because this time the banks and the media have a scapegoat in the form of Donald Trump, and by extension, they have a scapegoat in the form of conservatives, populists, and sovereignty activists."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...cession-threat

China's Gold Reserves Jump For 7th Month; 1H19 Consumption, Production Slump
".has "rooted out" 31 zombie company gold-producers that rely on government bailouts to survive."
You see, China wants gold so bad that they will underwrite gold production at companies that are not profitable. In a general sense, the CBs are paying a lot more for gold than market price.

" China's Ultimate Play For Global Oil Market Control
..while all attention is focused on the very noisy US-Iran dispute in the Persian Gulf, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is rapidly and quietly consolidating a dominant presence in the area with the active support of Russia."
Same for Venezuela.
"SHALE OIL NEXT VICTIMS: The Major Oil Companies
by SRSrocco - Aug 21, 2019 1:30 pm
As the situation continues to deteriorate for the small to mid-sized shale operators, the next victims will be the major oil companies."
NOT TO WORRY. We will wake up one day and,,,, a new electric car will be sitting in the driveway.

"Investor sentiment"
"Per Peter: Confidence requires perceptions of certainty and control. Easily grasped narratives – even when they are woefully incorrect – fulfill both needs. Not sure that there is a formal name to the bias, but I would call it “Explanation Bias” – we need an easy story to fight against the anxiety that would arise from what would otherwise be randomness. And randomness is untenable. "
"much steeper decline is not necessarily about finance and economics; behavioral instincts are now in play. "
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the...und-the-world/

8/21 Trump team braces GOP donors for a potential ‘moderate and short’ recession – Politico
Yeah right,,, break it to them easy.

The trade war is going to push the economy off a cliff. Trump precipitates the trade war early to give China a better shove off same cliff. There is speculation that Trump believes that America won't be affected. He knows better.

City Council to declare Portland a 'sanctuary city' - oregonlive.com
Portland Mayor: Trump's Threat to Bus Immigrants to Sanctuary Cities
Portland begins sending homeless people to other cities, including Coos Bay
The City of Portland introduced a program in 2016 called Ticket Home .... We are getting homeless being shipped to Coos Bay
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  #3422  
Old 08-22-2019, 03:01 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Currency pegs,,,big-bribes,,, total war economy

Armstrong writes about currency pegs and, says that they never work. This isn't true. The U.S. was on a gold standard for many years in the 1800s. It broke when the State wanted big wars. The U.S. dollar was once again pegged to gold by the Bretton Woods agreement. This peg broke when the welfare-warfare state was created. The bankers and politicians, both being parasites have no qualms about inflating without limit.
Armstrong; "ANSWER: No, the two are not connected. Bretton Woods collapsed on August 15th, 1971. The peak in Britain’s GDP came in 1973. Nixon closing the gold window was by no means discretionary. To the contrary, there was no alternative.

The gold standard failed as it always does. You simply CANNOT FIX the value of money. It was stupid to create Bretton Woods with a fixed exchange rate."
The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to forestall future wars by limiting bond and currency expansion.
"The government cannot fix the money at some arbitrary value and then spend whatever they want, thereby increasing the supply of the currency while keeping the value to gold fixed.'
"They tried to fix the pound in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and it blew up in their face."
"Currency pegs all face the same fate. The British attempt to fix the pound after World War I was absurd. On September 20, 1931, Britain abandoned the gold standard. It was an event that has scarred political memories for two generations, "
The problem is the WAR STANDARD.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...currency-pegs/

"People do not realize but Pharmaceuticals/Health Products are the #1 contributor as an industry to bribing Congress. They have given almost $4 billion to them to get this monopoly status."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...edical-reform/

"Once again, even going back to 1995, estimates placed about $200 billion to $250 billion of U.S. currency was circulating abroad. That was more than 50% given the physical money supply even back then was about $375 billion in circulation outside of banks. More recently, the amount of US currency in circulation outside the United States has now exceeded 70%. The world is hoarding dollars for they fear the cancellation of their own currencies as talk of eliminating cash in Europe has escalated with the prospect of Christine Lagarde replacing Draghi.

As Americans have moved increasingly toward debit and credit cards, the rest of the world has been sucking-up US dollars beyond belief. Anyone who questions whether the US dollar is the reserve currency, well the cash is not being held by governments or central banks. The people are now hoarding US dollars at record levels. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-that-1-bills/
Keep in mind that Iran, and now, Peru have been printing up $100 bills for many years. Armstrong mentions that American currency has never been cancelled YET.

America has a war economy. It is disgusting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-endless-wars
Here is a video interview with a retired general who lays it all out. Everything in America is wrapped around the war economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgig1QVU2lY

France is demanding that U.K. pay up for the Bexit divorce.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgig1QVU2lY
8/22 Panic as Brexit sparks slowdown – report sends shock waves through EU – Express
8/22 BLS revises payrolls 501,000 lower through March – Mish

I'm sure that this is some kind of a mis-print.
8/22 ‘A total failure’: Homeless crisis in progressive cities reaches fever pitch – Zero Hedge
So, what is progressive about mountains of rats, garbage and feces?
8/22 Armageddon now or later? Industrial IoT is the new cyber battleground – Silicon Angle
8/22 Cyber threats to worsen with tech advances: Israeli expert – Express

Like kinetic warfare, there is nothing that you can build that somebody else can not blow up.
Trump again says US can 'win' Afghan war 'in a week' Without Nukes Or killing 10 million
Yep, just pull out and, call it a win.
Pox Americana invaded Afghanistan a few months after the Taliban cut out opium production. WE got production way back up because the bankers needed the liquidity. The Taliban plan to clean up the country.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/...ce-talks-Ghani
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  #3423  
Old 08-23-2019, 03:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Oil??,,, Ice Age in bonds extends,,,, debt-free money to be distributed

Imagine that you had a tapeworm and, you could communicate with it. You complain to your tapeworm that is is severely weakening you and you can't continue to work.
Armstrong, "In Australia, they want to make it a criminal act with a penalty of 2 years in prison for purchasing anything with more than $10,000 in cash. Australia is really going off the deep end. They are desperately trying to eliminate all cash and are forcing people to have only bank accounts so they can tax them as they like."
" This ensures that when there are bank failures, they can just confiscate the people’s money to save the bankers."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...10000-in-cash/

Here are 2 conflicting articles on oil.
https://www.rt.com/business/467045-u...-world-in-oil/
And
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-In-Years.html
The first article glosses over the enormous financial losses in the oil sector.

3 articles to skim on bonds. if bond yields are negative, what happens to bond funds?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...es-go-negative
Decades ago, Albert Edwards predicted an "ice age" in bond markets. As of today, there are $19 billion with negative yields. Edwards claims that investors are discounting the future and, have piled in to all the negative paper.
"This means that "the bubbles are not in the government bond market in my view. They are in corporate equities and corporate bonds."

If Edwards is correct about the locus of the next mega-bubble, it is very bad news for risk assets as the "global deflationary bust will wreak havoc with financial markets", prompting Edwards to ask a rhetorical question:

Does anyone seriously believe that in the next global recession equity markets will not collapse? Do market participants really believe fiscal stimulus and helicopter money will save us from a gut wrenching global bust that will make 2008 look like a picnic? "
OK, he talks about a collapse of corporate paper and equity markets. Remember that Armstrong predicts that sovereign debt will collapse and private equity will "survive".
Edwards writes about GOV bonds, "It is Edwards' opinion that "we are on autopilot until we get" to 0.5%."
Armstrong claims that eventually, there will be a high rate demanded for GOV bonds and, a low rate for private debt. Edwards has a good record for accuracy,, so does Armstrong.
At the moment, they are in complete apposition.
"Edwards then points us to the work of Gaurav Saroliya, Director of Macro Strategy at Oxford Economics who "certainly doesn’t think that QE is depressing bond yields."
The more money that flows in, the lower the yields. How can they claim that QE hasn't depressed yields?
"Referring to the implied upcoming plunge in nominal GDP, Edwards explains that "that is why this is not a bond bubble. It is the next phase of The Ice Age. And it is here.""
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...there-lot-more

Another article on negative yield bonds.
https://www.kpvi.com/news/national_n...3b2b630c7.html
I can't help but think that this is an implementation of Keynes, "euthanasia of the rentier"

8/23 Could cheap debt help the global economy spend its way out of trouble? – OZY
It has never worked before so, by all means, give it a try.
8/22 Russell 2000 company debt hits all-time high, can small-cap woes get any worse? – MW
Yes

"This week he published an extraordinary piece in the Financial Times. There he correctly identified a problem, perhaps the biggest problem of our age: “there is not enough monetary policy space to deal with the next downturn. Conventional and unconventional monetary policy mainly boosts growth by lowering short and long-term interest rates. But this requires rates to go lower, and there is nowhere left for rates to go.” Quite right. Then he goes and spoils it all by saying that central bankers, in order to generate “higher inflation”, need to take an “unprecedented venture” and go direct and set about “finding ways to get money more directly in the hands of entities that can spend it, including consumers.” "
This is important to consider. The CB force-feeds the private banks by loading them up with "excess reserves" so that they can continue to loan to people. People are debt saturated and, won't borrow. Seeing the train going off the rails, there are emerging propositions to bypass the debt-money & bankers and, get debt-free money into the purses of would-be consumers.
"This kind of suggestion, that central bankers should collaborate and flood the world with cash, in the hope that it will make the next recession less ghastly, is not only out-of-the-box thinking; it’s out of this world thinking."
The bankers will, of course, resist being bypassed.

" a piece in the FT which called for the European Central Bank to print money in order to buy shares in European companies to “improve European growth prospects”. If you think this idea is obviously a non-starter, think again – the Bank of Japan has been buying share in Japanese companies for years, for all the good it has done Japan’s GDP growth."
NO MENTION of wage growth.
https://glintpay.com/en_us/economics/dirty-harry-time/

8/23 Somebody else, not ETFs, took most gold sent to London in July – GATA
Gold is slowly coming into view as an alternative to GOV manipulation.
8/22 Bitcoin vs. gold: Is bitcoin really a new ‘safe haven’ asset? – Forbes
The State doesn't want any competition with it's paper being regarded as a store-of-value. It will never allow a real competition in crypto. Gold is another story. The CBs are loading up on gold.
8/23 Israel-Iran war escalates with airstrikes in Iraq – Washington Times
Trump refuses to kick off a war for israel so, they are trying to get one going on their own. Sooner or later, they are going to push too far.
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  #3424  
Old 08-24-2019, 08:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Everybody trying to guard a niche

A tribe is an extension of a genetic family. A state is just an administrative creation purportedly created to facilitate mutual protection and prosperity.

"The Treasury and Justice departments deposited more than $5 billion into their respective asset forfeiture funds. That same year the FBI reports that burglary losses topped out at $3.5 billion."
Crime pays. GOV service pays even more.
Rummel, "His research shows that the death toll from democide is far greater than the death toll from war. After studying over 8,000 reports of government-caused deaths, Rummel estimates that there have been 262 million victims of democide in the last century. According to his figures, six times as many people have died from the actions of people working for governments than have died in battle.
One of his main findings is that liberal democracies have much less democide than authoritarian regimes.[10] He argues that there is a relation between political power and democide. Political mass murder grows increasingly common as political power becomes unconstrained. At the other end of the scale, where power is diffuse, checked, and balanced, political violence is a rarity. According to Rummel, "The more power a regime has, the more likely people will be killed."


Sean Hannity: Media, Democrats 'want people to suffer' in recession
Trump accuses news media of trying to crash the economy
Rooting for a Recession Is Dangerous The Nation
Washington Post praying for a recession to defeat Trump.


So, we have finance that wants to keep tight control over the economy. The fact that crooked finance blew up the Savings & Loan business is not relevant. The S&L crash cost the taxpayers $1 trillion.
The Marxists and war mongers who created the welfare-warfare nightmare blew up the gold standard that had brought stability and peace. When the gold standard disappeared, inflation of the money supply went ballistic. The peculiarities of the Bretton Woods deal produced Triffins Dilemma And America's war-by-credit card.

The war & banking conglomerate wants to keep strict control over the American populace. The whole economy revolves around war production.The police State has been rolled out everywhere. The State is attacking and fleecing it's "tax donkeys".
The 9/11 charade was used to lock down domestic surveillance and control even tighter.

State sanctioned monopolies overcharge us horrendously. Big Pharma poisons us. Big Ag poisons the ecosystem regardless of the many die-offs.
The legislature is locked in a power struggle that will never die out.
The Cloward-Piven strategy out of Chicago calls for everybody to demand State help until the demands collapse the State. The left believes that; after the collapse, a bright phoenix will rise up out of the ashes.

The recession has started. Will the legislature put aside partisan problems and, work together.
Will the bankers surrender power and allow debt-free money to be disbursed to forestall riots and revolution?

Will the globalists Stop trying to implement their insane attempts at total centralization and control?
Will the Sunni and Shia sit down and make peace?
Will israel finally give up on the idea of "greater israel?"
Will America abandon it's permanent war footing?

Armstrong calls for China to come out on top.
China will become the largest economy in the world and take the crown from the United States because America lacks the political stability to foster long-term economic growth like China."
A point
Unless the Supreme Court outlaws Marxism, there is no hope for the United States to survive long-term. Our political system will self-destruct the economy."
Does Armstrong think that China is a stranger to the complete State control advocated by Marx?
China, in contrast, has a long-term plan. Its politicians are a career employee, but they need not stand for election. That actually allows for actual long-term planning "
Yes indeed,,, the same kind of planning that the eurocrats have used to destroy the Eurozone. Just because they work for the State,,,,, this implies that they know what they are doing?

United States cannot compete because of the polarization in American politics dominated by free-market Adam Smith v Marxist Socialism. This political war keeps getting worse and it is tearing the economy apart."
Armstrong loses sight of the fact that the Deep State, MSM, automation and, israel are tearing America apart.
China had no problem allowing investment in its financial sector because there is a serious problem which can use capital at this point in time.,"
The PBOC at one time created more liquidity that the FED, BOJ and BOE all put together. China is not liquidity constrained. Why would they need outside capital? China wanted to switch over to a domestic-consumption economy. If they raise wages, everything will shift to Viet Nam, Laos, Bangladesh, India and all the other places with a high birth rate and low wages.
China’s banks are not intricately connected to US banks as was the case with European and American banks."
They have a huge exposure to derivatives at Deutsche bank.

Therefore, a debt problem in China is more likely to have an isolated Asian influence rather than create a contagion infecting the US economy directly."
"isolated Asian influence" Remember when the "Asian Tigers" blew up? It was felt around the world.
Capital is fleeing Hong Kong. The spectre of past atrocities is never far away.
Opinion: Another Tiananmen Square in Hong Kong?
The Chinese fertility rate is below replacement. Like America and several other countries, the more that the police State cracks down, the fewer people are willing to bring children into a messed up world. Japan is a different story altogether.

The big question is; Will paralysis at State level make the recession even worse?
Everybody wants to guarantee the continuation of the power and success of their particular niche.
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  #3425  
Old 08-25-2019, 12:49 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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not a run of the mill crash

Lots of interesting stuff to read. For the first time in American history, the media is actively promoting the idea that America is crashing financially. Keep in mind that the media is owned by jews. Some years ago, Netanayahooo said that America could "dry up and blow away when israel was done with it". Is it possible that israel and the jews don't realize that israel can NOT survive without it's MAJOR patron? Is MSM so blind? Is the deep State so obsessed at stopping Trump that it is willing to help initiate a complete economic breakdown? Do these power groups believe that this coming crash will be run-of-the-mill?

In the dotcom crash, gamblers threw money at unicorns. The unicorns couldn't pay it back. In 2008, the gamblers threw money at SUB-prime borrowers. They couldn't pay it back. The bad paper was taken up by the State. The next crash is projected to be in Government debt. Does anybody believe that the GOV can crash financially without taking down most everything else?

" We are now witnessing the death throes of the free market. The massive and record-breaking global debt overhang, which is now $250 trillion (330% of GDP), demands a deflationary deleveraging depression to occur; as a wave of defaults eliminates much of that untenable debt overhang."
"In point of fact, the free market is no longer being allowed to function. Communism has destroyed capitalism,"
WRONG, crony capitalism has destroyed free-market capitalism.
"They have destroyed the savings and investment dynamic and turned time backward."
THEY being the parasitic money renters who had no savings of their own.
"Every time market forces begin to take over, some government announces a fiscal stimulus package and/or a particular central bank announces a proposal to print yet more money."
"The all-important Aggregate Hours Worked index is a measurement of the total number of workers times the average hours in a workweek. Despite the 2,162,000 of net new jobs created for all private-sector employees from 7/2018-7/2019, the Index for aggregate weekly hours was unchanged at 111.9 during that period. "
"The Treasury Department said federal spending in July was $371 billion, up 23% from the same month in 2018. "
"Servicing costs for this current fiscal year’s National Debt are almost a half-trillion dollars ($497 billion through July) –and will be higher than 2018′s record $523 billion once this fiscal year ends in October. "
MAYBE, we should use debt-free money.
"The NY fed announced that consumer debt is now $1.5 trillion higher than 2008. Total Consumer Debt is at a record $13.9 trillion."
Party on Wayne.

"the major global central banks alone have printed $22 trillion since 2008. They have created the biggest bubble in the history of planet earth known as the sovereign debt bubble." This has kept employment going.
"Alternatively, they can keep on printing and watch hyperinflation obliterate the economy. That is the unavoidable outcome of creating a 633% increase in the supply of base money since 2008."
NOT that simple.
"there is over $1 trillion worth of corporate debt that now has a negative yield."
"Indeed, what central bankers have created is sort of a time machine. They have reversed the clock when it comes to the time value of money. "
There is NO time value on free money.
"the growing mountain of negative-yielding debt has flipped time upside down; where savers lose more money as time passes"
They aren't savers,,, Gamblers.

"Wall Street loves to say that gold is a bad investment because it doesn’t have a yield and it cost you money to store it. Well, you know what else doesn’t have a yield and costs you money to store it: Sovereign debt–27% of the developed world’s total global supply now has a negative yield. And that trillion-dollar pile of negative-yielding corporate debt is surging by the day."
The Central Bank Time Machine | Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC | Mid-week Reality Check Podcast

"Today we see how utterly mistaken was the Milton Friedman notion that a market system can regulate itself. We see how silly the Ronald Reagan slogan was that government is the problem, not the solution "
Greenspan said the same thing. Where he made his big mistake was in thinking that banks would do whatever was best for the bank. Ignoring the fact that this would most likely be bad for investors and the economy, there is a second problem. The individual investors / gamblers would do what was best for them OR their ego. This turned out to be very BAD for the bank. Barings Bank made it through innumerable wars and depressions. ONE trader destroyed them after 237 years of success.

"The people on Wall Street still don’t get it. They’re still puzzled—why is it that people are mad at the banks? Well, let’s see. You know, you guys are drawing down 10, 20 million dollar bonuses after America went through the worst economic year that it’s gone through in decades, and you guys caused the problem. "

— President Barack Obama (December 2009)

"we find that in the period 1875-1913, a period of marked expansion in international trade and capital flows comparable to the last three decades, there were only four banking crises worldwide.1"
I'm sure that it couldn't have been the limitations imposed on liquidity creation by the GOLD STANDARD.
"By contrast, in the period 1978-2009, a period of much more extensive bank regulation, central bank intervention, government protection of depositors and other bank creditors, and government control of mortgage markets, about 140 banking crises occurred worldwide. Of these, 20 were more severe than any crisis from the earlier period of 1875-1913, in terms of total bank losses as a percent of GDP."
Government regulation of the banks was a toothless paper tiger. Unlimited monetary inflation buys up all the politicians as needed.

"What changed in recent years that led to business risk-taking capable of wrecking the U.S. housing market and the U.S. banking system and other banking systems throughout the world? Further, why were prudent credit practices reasonably maintained in credit card and commercial mortgage securitization in recent years, but wholly abandoned in residential mortgage securitization?"
"Lenders made millions of loans to borrowers who, under normal market conditions, weren't able to pay them off. "
"this claim ignores that for years irrational lending standards have been forced on lenders by the federal Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and rewarded (at taxpayers' expense) by multiple government bodies."
"The CRA forces banks to make loans in poor communities, loans that banks may otherwise reject as financially unsound. Under the CRA, banks must convince a set of bureaucracies that they are not engaging in discrimination, a charge that the act encourages any CRA-recognized community group to bring forward.
According to one enforcement agency, "discrimination exists when a lender's underwriting policies contain arbitrary or outdated criteria that effectively disqualify many urban or lower-income minority applicants."
The 8astards,,, they didn't want to lend money to people who couldn't pay it back.

"we identify a potent mix of six major government policies that together rewarded short-sighted collective risk-taking and penalized long-term business leadership:"
How Government Failure Caused the Great Recession - AEI
So, the State forced banks to loan to people who could never pay it back.
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  #3426  
Old 08-25-2019, 01:21 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Recession biting harder

Steve Keen is a very smart guy who really understands the many problems. He has a vid where he explains the reason and order in which the zombies will fail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk_17ewZzow
Rense,
One Of The Largest TBTF Banks In America Boldly Declares The Wheels For A Slowdown Are In Motion'
Investors searching for safe havens hoard 'paper gold' in record numbers

Yep, Morgan Stanley says that the wheels are going to come off. Paper gold is a speculative vehicle, NOT a safe haven.
Australia's Millionaire Visa Programme Surges as Hong Kong's Wealthy Flee Amid Protests
US 'Totally Unprepared' to Deal With Recession Warns Union Bank Chief Economist
8/24 China’s enormous debt ‘no longer can be ignored,’ analyst says – CNBC
8/24 China warns U.S. to stop ‘wrong’ trade actions or face consequences – Reuters

I'm sure that Trump is shaking in his loafers.
8/24 Larry Summers comes clean, admits central planners are impotent – ZH
8/24 Global economy suffers from high debt with US in worst shape – Peter Schiff
8/24 Hong Kong chaos crashes earnings, worst since 2008 – Zero Hedge


8/24 Money printing can’t replace saving as the engine of economic growth – Mises
Not as long as it is debt money.
8/24 World needs to end risky reliance on U.S. dollar: BoE’s Carney – Reuters
8/24 Carney urges libra-like reserve currency to end dollar dominance – Bloomberg

WE already have the SDR. What else do you need?
8/23 Trump was right – the dollar just hit an all-time high! – Zero Hedge
And that destroys dollar debt service in emerging markets.
"“Harvard University economist Lawrence Summers warned central bankers that they are staring at ‘black hole monetary economics’ where small changes in interest rates and even more aggressive strategies do little to solve demand shortfalls."
Ah yes, demand shortfalls. Somebody finally noticed.
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  #3427  
Old 08-25-2019, 04:14 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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armstrong

I always seem to cite Armstrong over all others.
"Meanwhile, we face the biggest Bond Bubble in the history of civilization. The last time something like that took place, it did not end very nicely for civilization.

We are looking at such an important shift this time in the Business Cycle that those attending the WEC this year will also receive ongoing video updates as needed because things are not going to be just a walk in the park. "
"We have so many markets at critical junctures as we head into the ECM turning point, this year’s WEC is going to be a critical forecasting event. Most importantly, we have to face not just a Monetary Crisis Cycle, which is becoming obvious to everyone as the British pound takes a nosedive, but everything from Energy to Agriculture is in the staging ground for the next ECM along with precious metals."
"Central banks (some who have been attending the WEC), are now beginning to lobby the fiscal side trying to warn them of impending doom and how they CANNOT possibly prop-up the world economy this time around."
"The ONLY way to survive this is going to be with Socrates because there is ABSOLUTELY no precedent to which we can refer to in history."
Nope, no precedent for birth control and electronic money.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-big-fake-out/

"I am publishing for attendees for the first time the Dark Age Cycle. In addition the Manipulating the World Economy which is a detailed account of central banks and how the entire system has been managed which is now slipping through their fingers, we have indeed the first time in modern history when such things have converged. Historical accounts exist, but well before the 17th century"
" Here you will learn a shocking reality behind the curtain of the Euro.

The Fate of Europe is a very important report for you need to understand the backdrop to what we face going forward. Like the Great Depression, the crisis will begin in Europe and spread like a contagion."
Great Depression One started in an Austrian bank, Credit Anstalt.
"With the majority of economists now talking up a bear market and a recession in an effort to desperately overthrow Trump in the 2020 election, "
Be VERY careful what you wish for.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...wec-this-year/

In his blog, Armstrong shoots from the hip. I find tons of mistakes in word choice, syntax, punctuation. Here is a funny one.
Securing the Boarder – The Democrats
Obviously border is misspelled. I don't care.
Climate change and corruption.
https://youtu.be/RUBrV0VFcbY
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Old 08-25-2019, 05:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Contagion,,, zombies have employees

Way back in the 1920s, the world's banks were not integrated to any great degree. Just the same, when Credit Anstalt blew up, it spread to everything. In 1989 when Russian bonds defaulted, the meltdown of Long Term Capital Management nearly brought down the entire financial system.
This brings us to China. The Yuan is crashing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-23/yuan-crashing
8/23 Trump was right – the dollar just hit an all-time high! – Zero Hedge
IMF, "China’s zombie firms also overlap considerably with the state-owned enterprises. Together this group accounts for a large share of corporate debt (about 6-11 percent of GDP" "the share of zombies in total corporate debt rose quickly by 4 percentage points of GDP during 2008-16,"
Chinese zombie debt is < 15% of GDP?

China is underestimating its US$3 trillion dollar debt and this could trigger a financial crisis, says economist
Does China have enough US dollars to survive the US trade war

China desperately needs dollars to service dollar-denominated debt. If the Yuan drops by half, China needs twice as many dollars to service a given loan. As Trump cuts off China trade, the Chinese get ever-more desperate for dollars.

Don't ever forget; scratch a Chinaman,,, find a communist. The Chinese central party has it all planned out. BUT, central planning has never worked out. It ALWAYS results in massive malinvestment. The Chinese built up a massive export economy never considering the fact that they were taking the income of their best customers. They planned to eventually switch over to a domestic consumption economy. They never considered that they might not be able to escape from the global-mean-wage that they had created. As automation bites in to low-skill jobs, billions of people vie for China's job niches. The proposed Chinese switch to high wages never happened. China built MANY millions of houses and infrastructure projects that a low-wage country can't sell to it's own people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w&t=231s

Global banks are 17 times more exposed to China than Greece -
Bank of England warns on UK exposure to China's credit boom
European banks have $3 trillion of exposure to emerging market debt


13 percent of the world's companies are 'zombies
One in 10 US companies is a "zombie" at risk of default
The Fed Created An Economy Of Zombies And Unicorns - Forbes
Central Banks Are Spawning A Zombie Apocalypse

Nobody will come out and say that wages and employment are inadequate to keep the economy going.

8/25 Trump on US-China trade war: ‘I could declare a national emergency’ – CNBC
Don't worry, You'll get your chance
8/25 S&P 500’s floor Is creaking as Trump tweets stocks into danger – Bloomberg
8/25 UK birth rate plunges to lowest level in 80 years – Zero Hedge
China will have 626 million cameras in operation to keep an eye on EVERYBODY.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...OPLE-year.html
After blowing up the American political establishment, Trump is moving on to a bigger target.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...the-g-7-summit
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Old 08-26-2019, 03:01 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Musical chairs atop the bond volcano

Couple of short vids on the China slowdown.One is from the Financial Times, a globalist mouthpiece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t487ILVf87k&t=111s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN8SoArb2rk&t=113s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w&t=231s
Keep in mind that Trump is doing his best to shove them off the cliff. At the bottom of the cliff lies revolution.
8/26 China’s companies have unseen foreign debt that’s maturing fast – Bloomberg
China desperately needs dollars/
China built itself relying on purloined technology. At one time, they had 22,000 workers mining the net for non-classified tech. Their workforce is shrinking,,, a holdover from their 1-child policy. They are short 22 million women so, it is safe to assume that they drowned 22 million female infants. As they lose the huge influx of peasants, the wages are rising, making them less competitive with low-wage competitors.

Armstrong, "I have reviewed the buyers of these negative bonds which now amount to $15 trillion outstanding globally. What is actually taking place in the market is really dominated by punters rather than investors. In other words, the people have been buying them to flip assuming rates would just go lower."
"The crisis on the horizon is MASSIVE!!!! These punters are going to get caught as they did with the Russian bonds when they collapsed in 1998 which led to the Long-Term Capital Market crisis. This is a game of musical chairs. Nobody thinks twice as long as rates decline. But the appetite for negative yields does NOT exist insofar as people actually investing in them."
"The trend looks to be getting ready to change when the ECM turns. BUYER BEWARE!!!!
We may yet see the biggest bubble in the modern history of finance explode far worse than the 2007-2009 debacle."
There you have it. Bond values tank and, we have massive "deflation"

"QUESTION: Marty, you have said this is the historic bond bubble of all times with interest rates at a 5,000 year low. Will you elaborate on the bond bubble at the WEC? It seems like this may be the granddaddy of all shorts."
"ANSWER: We have an Institutional Report on the Bond Bubble. We have a lot of pension funds and institutional clients where that is the main focus. Nevertheless, we cannot lay out the future of all markets without diving into the Bond Bubble. It is this which will influence the Monetary Crisis Cycle and dictate the trend in share markets as well as commodities."
In other words, buy my report. The money renters want to continue to make money on sovereign debt. The States want to implement debt-free money. That would be the end of the bond market. This is a huge struggle to implement Keynes "euthanasia of the rentier"
An Indian proverb, When the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

Here is an excellent article about corporate debt. Armstrong claims that sovereign debt will crash. BUT, the State has a printing press and, the private sector does not. Corporate debt WILL eventually blow.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...sk-flash-crash

Here is another article on bonds that projects "daily liquidity" problems.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...quidity-crisis

Trump has put the PPT to work to give the "can" a good kick down the road.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-pboc-peg-band
This next article is completely off-topic. Reportedly, a Texas company has come up with a method for eliminating back EMF in an electric motor.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...lectric-motors
Somebody should repost this to a more appropriate thread.

Art of the deal UK style;
Johnson to Announce Cut in Brexit 'Divorce Bill' to $11 Billion In Case of No-Deal - Reports
Mega Group, Maxwells and Mossad - The Spy Story at the Heart of the Epstein Scandal - Or...The US Is Now Being Totally Controlled By Organized Crime
Galloway - 'Ghislaine Maxwell Is A Mossad Informer Who Was Epstein's Handler'
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:48 PM
bistander bistander is online now
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No bemf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny B View Post
...
This next article is completely off-topic. Reportedly, a Texas company has come up with a method for eliminating back EMF in an electric motor.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...lectric-motors
Somebody should repost this to a more appropriate thread.
...
No need. It is BS hype to get funding. Where do you read or hear "elimination of back emf"? I didn't see that particular BS claim among so many others. FWIW, without back emf, a motor will have zero output power.

Regards,

bi
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Old 08-26-2019, 11:14 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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I hope that i can get my $ 4.5 million back.
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Old 08-27-2019, 03:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Peak of globalization,,,, SDR still a non-starter

Globalism probably sounded like a good idea to some people. The reality is far different. It only benefited 6 countries. Now, even those six are going down.
The Automatic Earth has a very good article on reversing globalism. I need to quote a lot of it.
"Bank of England’s outgoing governor Mark Carney talked about a Synthetic Hegemonic Currency (SHC) that the world ‘must’ create, "
"He even mentioned Facebook’s Libra ‘currency’ as some sort of example for something that should replace the US dollar internationally. And that replacement is allegedly needed because countries are hoarding dollars. And/or “protecting themselves by racking up enormous piles of dollar-denominated debt.” Whichever comes first, I guess?!"
Just wait til the default fairy appears.
"Carney warned that very low equilibrium interest rates had in the past coincided with wars, financial crises and abrupt changes in the banking system. As a first step to reorder the world’s financial system, countries could triple the resources of the IMF to $3 trillion as a better alternative to countries protecting themselves by racking up enormous piles of dollar-denominated debt."

Greece got reamed really badly by the IMF. I'm sure that hundreds of countries are ready to sign on to something created and controlled by the IMF.
"While such concerted efforts can improve the functioning of the current system, ultimately a multi-polar global economy requires a new IMFS (international monetary and financial system) to realize its full potential,”
"I’m thinking Carney is not just wearing blinders, he’s simple too late. The globalization that his proposals might serve is already past its peak. He may not be able to see beyond it, but we should.
Globalization is a process, it’s something that moves, it can’t stand still. And now that it’s fully reached China, there’s nowhere else for it to go. "
"perhaps counter intuitively, the only thing it can really do is to move back. For a number of different reasons, I think that’s exactly what will happen. And I don’t think that’s all that bad. Trump is of course already preparing part of that move with his tariffs war. But it can, and I’m quite sure will, go much further."
"but the main effect of that is it kills our jobs. The narrative about this over the past few decades has been that we were building a ‘knowledge economy’ or a ‘service economy’, but that’s a whole lot of BS."

"And Trump plays his role in this just dandy. Not that he’s the smartest guy around, far from it, but he does recognize how globalization hurts America."
"I predict Carney and his ilk will propose a cloud-based world currency soon, ‘guaranteed’ by -probably- the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR), but that is totally unfit for the role they have in mind."
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...n-just-peaked/
Varney - Trump 'Dominated' G7 Like No
Other President In Many Years

The Donald did not go there to play nice. He planned to do the G7 what he did to the Dems.

Roberts - US Corporations The Problem Not China
There's no law against outsourcing.
Apple and Samsung sued over 'cancer risk'from cell phone radiation
Once again, the Trump effect where lawsuits are not blocked as much as before.
"China signaled on Monday it was now seeking a “calm” end to its ongoing trade war with the U.S., as Asian markets crumbled and China’s currency plummeted to an 11-year low following the latest tariffs on $550 billion in Chinese goods announced last Friday by the Trump administration."

Johnson Refuses To Pay Brexit Divorce Bill If No Deal With EU
Brussels says Britain must pay EU bill in full in case of no-deal Brexit

What would Trump do?
Trump is really waking up jewish groups in America,,, along with Christian zionists.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...israel/596731/

Gold prices have jumped 25% this year in India. If you want to get a bank loan, you have to turn over your gold. Nothing else will do.
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Old 08-27-2019, 03:07 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Socialism as a response / cure for fascism

Every dollar of additional taxes must be taken from the productive economy. The generally accepted figure is; every additional dollar of taxes reduces the productive economy by 3 dollars.
Armstrong; "Acting SPD leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel has drafted a concept for a wealth tax. He is proposing that this will bring the federal government €10 billion annually. He has argued that the rich have disproportionately benefited from the economic situation in recent years while the average person has struggled. He claims many even benefited from the financial market crisis of 2008/2009. Therefore, they should be punished with higher taxes more than 10 years later for the rest of their lives. Interestingly, very few people benefited from the 2008/2009 crisis unless they were a short player and those you can count on one hand. The banks are still insolvent in case he hasn’t noticed."
He probably hasn't

"Schäfer-Gümbel claims the money will be used for necessary investments in infrastructure, housing for the refugees, and of course climate change. The excuses are endless. But the truth is that the state and local governments are broke with over 50% in dire need of capital. They cannot create money and the German people are already severely taxed to the point where they rank only #3 from the bottom in net worth within Europe."
So, in spite of all their hard work and productivity, Germans are near the bottom in wealth.
"The hunt for taxes has always ended in revolution. This is not a trend governments should be following. The system is just unsustainable as is. We need someone for once to look at the viability going forward. The solution is not to raise taxes to meet next month’s rent time and time again."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ed-wealth-tax/
OBVIOUSLY we all need to pay much more for climate change and refugees.

Armstrong's entry into investing. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ow-it-evolves/

"My question to you is, “Do you agree that absolutely anything paid for using collected/extorted tax dollars is socialism?”"
"ANSWER: No. Building roads, schools, and infrastructure is not socialism. You cross that line when you engage in class warfare. This often starts with promises to treat people differently under the law based solely upon their status or income, and “redistribute” their wealth as if it were a charity. This violates the Equal Protection of the law and Obamacare was a good example. The Supreme Court upheld it as a TAX rather than as advertised. It was to punish the youth for not buying insurance they did not need nor could afford to lower the cost for others."

"Social Security is another example. They rob people of their income under the pretense that they will provide for you in your old age, then lower the benefits and keep raising the age qualification. They then seize your income and buy only government bonds, denying the average person the right to invest. They blame the “rich” for everything, but the “rich” get rich NOT by wages but by investment. So they deny the lower classes the right to provide for their own future and deny them the right to invest."
ALL the money went to wars
Keep in mind that most of the people who got rich did so with legislative capture and crony capitalism.

"Socialism is when they tax people under the pretense of helping in a way that goes beyond the common needs of society. Once you move beyond the infrastructure that is a common function to allow for commerce, you then begin to approach the Marxist theory which has been proven time and time again to fail. Self-interest is critical and government will NEVER act in the self-interest of others, only itself."
"There can be no liberty when the courts are controlled by the government. Socialism ends up being the excuse used to exert power and nothing more."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...xerting-power/

You see that the key to all of this is morality. Power corrupts. The banks can count on buying corrupt legislators. The productive people get robbed. There is no point in robbing non-productive people. As the common man gets progressively more impoverished by the wealthy who can afford to buy politicians, Socialism becomes an ever-more attractive alternative. Crony-capitalism is a major component of fascism,,, the marriage of BIG GOV and BIG business. The more that organized crime controls the State, the more immorality is injected into the system.
All of this argues for having a computer run the system. It has no fear of poverty, nor, failing to be re-elected.

Laying the ground work for the introduction of debt-free money.
"People tend to forget that central banks, compared to the economy, are a fairly new invention. They assumed their current role as setters of interest rates only in the 1920s, and became the guardians of inflation in the 1980s. In the 2010s, they became the unwitting destroyers of the pricing mechanism in the capital markets. Their evolutionary path seems clear, and it is very detrimental to the overall economy.

In the case of a recession, their only remaining (effective) stimulus option is some form debt monetization, á la “Modern Monetary Theory”. If enacted, this will signal the end of the monetary system as we know it, but also ensure the end of central bank hegemony because of the inflationary crisis which will ensue.

That’s why we should not be surprised if central banks are not around after the coming crisis has passed. Their pernicious asset buying-programs and negative rates have left them vulnerable politically to any larger shock, such as a crash in the asset markets or a global recession. Venturing into debt monetization would seal their fate.

In either case, a political reckoning for years of reckless central bank policy is fast approaching, and they may not survive what is about to hit."
https://gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/...banks-survive/

8/27 The $17t negative interest rate debt trap – Payments
THAT is going to leave a mark when it blows.
8/27 Blame the Fed for the coming pension fund crisis – Seeking Alpha
S&P 500's Biggest Pension Plans Face $382 Billion Funding Gap

You can't blame that on the FED. It is the fault of the corporate mentality.
Public Pension Crisis: Who Will Cover the $4 Trillion Shortfall?
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It's A Problem For Everybody

Starving pensioners will be the ones that demand debt-free money and MMT.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:47 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Trump is fighting the FED, the FED is trying to get rid of him

Preparing For Financial Apocalypse - Insiders Are Selling '$600 Million Of Stock Per Day In August'
After Carney Admits That Low Rates Lead To War SF Fed Suddenly Changes Its Mind On NIRP
'Things Will Never Be The Same Again' Here Are 20 Questions As Central Banks Admit Defeat
BoA Says Buy Gold As Central Banks Lose Control


Ex NY Fed President Urges Fed's Powell To Prevent Trump Re-Election - Political Sabotage By Private Bank
Bloomberg Op-Ed - Ex Fed President Says Bank Should Work To Prevent A Second Term For Trump Via Recession - This Is Against Its Franchise Legal Mandate

This is a very big deal. If the FED works against Trump, he can then blame them for the upcoming collapse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...mp-re-election
Somehow, this doesn't all seem accidental.

"German people are already severely taxed to the point where they rank only #3 from the bottom in net worth within Europe."
Germans had to suffer decades of wage depression. They just fell further and further behind the rest of Europe.
"Acting SPD leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel has drafted a concept for a wealth tax"
He wants to tax the rich. Germany has a 1 trillion Euro current account surplus.

Top 10 Facts About Poverty In Germany | The Borgen Project
https://borgenproject.org › top-10-facts-about-poverty-in-germany
Dec 3, 2018 - Possibly the most important fact about poverty in Germany is that county's poverty rate is breaking new negative records. "
OK, so Germany has crushing poverty. Schäfer-Gümbel wants to tax the snot out of the rich. WHO is holding this 1 trillion euros? Schäfer-Gümbel wants to tax the rich. I suspect that it is the corporations who have all the money, not rich individuals.
German Wage Repression | Dollars & Sense

The Trump effect.
Ruling - Johnson & Johnson must pay $572 Million for its part in US opioid epidemic
Creator Of Global-Warming's Infamous 'Hockey Stick' Chart Loses 'Climate-Science' Lawsuit

Hollywood's Man in Washington, Arrested for Alleged 'Rape and Blackmail'
More and more lawsuits are going through against formerly untouchable corporations like Monsanto.

8/28 U.S. yield inversion deepens, stokes recession fears – Reuters
8/28 Echoes of 1930s in trade-cum-currency war – Hindustan Times
8/28 Argentine bonds could be worth only 30 cents on the dollar after a default – Zero Hedge
8/28 Sub-prime auto credit deteriorates in July, says report – Zero Hedge
8/28 Wall Street slips as financials drag, trade outlook clouds – Reuters
8/28 Trump’s reelection a “threat to the U.S. and global economy” – Mish

8/27 Saxo warns equities are “treading on thin ice” – Zero Hedge
8/27 Potemkin pension accounting – Fox & Hounds
8/27 Ferguson: “The whole world is playing a massive, multiplayer game of chicken” – ZH

8/27 Yuan rebounds after PBOC sets much stronger-than-expected fixing – Reuters
8/26 China’s yuan slumps to 11-year low, stocks fall as U.S. trade war escalates – Reuters

They can set the "fix" wherever they want. It is the FX markets that will have the final say. China can ONLY support the Yuan by selling dollars-for-Yuan.
8/28 Dems after your money with taxes on wealth, unrealized gains – Mish
They are so NEEDY.
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:58 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Ending the FED by sabotage and subterfuge

Running late and, there is a lot to read. FED head Dudley came out and said that the FED should work to get rid of Trump. Has he never read the Sedition Act? I'm starting to suspect that Trump, Powell and Dudley, et al are conspiring to destroy the FED. It has pained itself into a corner.
8/28 Bill Dudley opens a “staggering” can of worms – Zero Hedge
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Fantasy of Central Bank "Growth" Is Finally Imploding
Armstrong has 2 good, short articles about how Trump is taking all the wrong actions.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...n-a-real-mess/
"We must separate the USA from the rest of the world"
"But the Fed cannot stand against the entire world. The USA has the ONLY viable bond market. Lowering rates in the USA will also destroy the US bond market"
That may just be what "they" are trying to do.

"President Trump just does not understand the dollar. This old school idea that lowering the currency will increase domestic jobs and exports sounds logical, but the value of any currency is determined by the level of international confidence. It is absurd to think you can lower interest rates and the dollar will decline to support more exports. Nobody considered that you then wipe out pensions and force the elderly to work because they cannot live off the interest from the savings."
Trump has been consistently under-estimated. He has already implemented three recommendations from Armstrong. Armstrong said that all of the U.S. intelligence agencies are clients of his. Years ago, all 16 agencies got together with Jim Rickards to "war game" the progress of the economy. They brought in Rickards because he is an expert in the bond market. Their conclusion; America was going to have a giant crash.
Remember that a crash of sovereign debt WILL affect the paychecks of the spooks.

"I really get tired being called into meetings over the same childish one-dimensional theories that it seems only an idiot would believe in. Trump has voiced his dismay over the strong dollar claiming U.S. manufacturers are at a disadvantage."
Trump is not worried about U.S. manufacturing. He wants to bring revolution to China.

"Those in power just cannot bring themselves to address the issue because of class warfare is the main argument the Democrats use to inspire people to vote for them."
"The only Democrat to ever listen to me was Governor Jim Florio of New Jersey who I debated at Princeton University. I pointed out that the poor and middle class have to pay income taxes and wait for a refund at the end of the year, so you are borrowing from the poor and middle class and cheat them on interest."
"Many analysts believe the Federal Reserve will yield to the demands for a further rate cut at the September meeting. This is due to the world economy imploding outside the USA not simply because of Trump-bashing the Fed. We live in a world where we are in the midst of a Dollar Contagion that is impacting the entire world because SOCIALISM is collapsing outside the United States first."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ntagion-trump/
Not ONE effing word about the collapse brought on by crony-capitalism.

8/29 Bond yields still heading lower as market fears ‘disaster scenario’ – CNBC
8/29 Social Security ponzi scheme crumbling: massive cuts or tax hikes coming – SHTF Plan
8/29 Larry Summers accuses Dudley of “trump derangement syndrome” – Mish
8/28 Key yield curve inverts further as 30-year hits record low – CNBC


The former house-flippers have bought bonds at, say 2%. They plan to flip them to investors when bond yields go to, say, one %.
There are $17 trillion in negative yield bonds. We are advised to NOT buy gold because it pays no interest.
/29 The Fed’s capitulation: what it means for gold investors – Claudio Grass
/29 Global gold industry hit by “forgery crisis” as fake kilobars flood the physical market – ZH

Probably by the CBs.

"
8/29 Emerging market fx plunges to record low as pesos plummet – Zero Hedge
NO, NO, NO, WAIT. What about dollar-debt service?
8/29 Treasury’s Mnuchin says U.S. plans no intervention on dollar – GATA
No, of course. They'll just pump a few $trillion into the BACK door of the stock market.
8/28 A world dying of money – beware of political and economic tantrums! – Global Gold
8/28 Pound plunges as Johnson restricts Parliament’s time before Brexit – Reuters

8/28 Brexit: UK leader Boris Johnson moves to suspend Parliament – CNBC
8/28 Comey confidant: expect Andrew Mccabe to be indicted any day – Gateway Pundit

8/28 Italian gov’t idea: let’s try another oil-water combo to see if it works better – Mish
Ah, the Italians,,,, gotta love them.
The Trump effect.
8/28 Purdue Pharma offers $10-12 billion to settle opioid claims – CNBC

Trump claims he wants a weak dollar but, uses a strong dollar to lash the rest of the world.
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Old 08-30-2019, 04:46 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Trying to slow the decent after the market peak.

The markets peaked year(s) ago. Here is a good article about the whole world running on fumes. Lots of good graphs.
https://deviantinvestor.com/10961/call-it-desperation/
Markets are demanding a rate cut to stay alive. This time around, nobody is sure that they will get what they want.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...d-stands-alone
8/28 Mass surveillance: NJ cops turn individuals’ phones into spying devices – SHTF Plan
Ah yes,,, New Jersey.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...esident-admits
8/29 E.P.A. to roll back regulations on methane, a potent greenhouse gas – NY Times
They never mention that water is the primary greenhouse gas.
8/29 All four Carter Page FISA warrants were illegally obtained – WE
Evidently, somebody felt that trump didn't have enough ammunition.
8/29 FBI studies two broken cameras outside cell where Epstein died – Reuters
Did they have hammer marks?
8/29 Elites “going rogue” suggests the global neoliberal architecture is collapsing – ZH
I hope that they all devour each other. Killing Epstein put fear into everybody and, they don't know who to pay off to be safe. It's every pervert and criminal for herself.
8/29 Bitcoin price targets 3-week losing streak in $14 billion overnight wipeout – CCN
Did you hear that the same thing happened to gold??? Neither did I.

8/29 Dow jumps after China says it wants ‘calm’ trade resolution – CNBC
8/29 China says it’s willing to resolve trade war with a ‘calm attitude’ – CNBC

Meanwhile, Trump is doing slash & burn.
Epstein's legacy is growing.
https://rense.com/general96/the-epst...ron-swartz.php
Ellen Brown has a good article advocating that the State take over credit creation instead of the banks. Reportedly, that is what created the financial stability of Mesopotamia.
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/th...000-years-old/

Kunstler gives a rundown on everything.
https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/the-g-7-blues/
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Old 08-30-2019, 02:07 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Armstrong and Brexit

Armstrong has an article where he talks about holding cash off to the side to buy up bargains after the crash..... as opposed to paying off your mortgage and being debt free.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...rtgages-banks/
He does mention that your cash is at risk if the bank fails. I think we're going to se a lot of that. Forget the FDIC. They are capitalized to $ 23 billion but, insure $72 trillion.
Armstrong has a very good plan for straightening out the federal court system.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...on-the-nation/

For those of you in Europe, Armstrong has some good ideas for storing wealth when the euro implodes.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...ars-in-europe/

"Nearly 8% of Americans 60 and older were “food insecure” in 2017, according to a recent study released by the anti-hunger group Feeding America. That’s 5.5 million seniors who don’t have consistent access to enough food for a healthy life, a number that has more than doubled since 2001"
https://time.com/5662200/elderly-hunger-in-america/
Climate change, the pole flip and, the crash will make all of this worse.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archi...ght-wing-coup/
" The very appointment of Boris Johnson by Elizabeth Saxe Coburg Gotha was a constitutional outrage.."
Brexit is going to be messy.
Senator Calls For Probe Into Fed Independence After Bill Dudley Urges Fed To Overthrow Trump
It all smells like a setup to me. Trump, et al want to bring in debt-free money. They need to flay the FED first.
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Old 09-01-2019, 06:16 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Nobody knows what they are doing

I need to do lots of cites to convey the general state of the economy.
Mauldin economics; In each of these cases, negative real rates have been no panacea for the growth problems. Indeed, the span of sustained poor economic performance has increased.
Now, evidence has emerged that the US real rate, while still positive, is declining and that investors here are being forced to accept lower real yields similar to investors in foreign markets. The implication: Decreased capital returns will prolong the period of poor economic growth in the United States, as has been the case in Japan and Europe. "
"Federal Reserve is on track to do exactly the wrong thing by dropping rates further as the economy weakens. "
NO mention at all that negative rates impoverish everybody who depends on interest-income. All those insurance and pension funds,,, and savers.
"the span of sustained poor economic performance has increased."
They rob hundreds of $ millions of interest income and, wonder why the economy is poor.
"There is no other reason for what is happening here except that the nations of the EU have directed the ECB, the European Central Bank has “NO” independence, to make this “Money from Nothing” and then buy both sovereign and corporate bonds denominated in euros. Now their budgets can be afforded, as they can borrow at less than zero, so they do not have to pay anything for them."
So, the State can go on borrowing by cannibalizing all the millions of people who depend on interest-income. This is the blob-State in action. The GOV bureaucrats will suck out the last drops of blood,,,, led by France.
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/fro...le-year-coming

Meanwhile, the money-renters in America are screaming for lower rates. Remember, they hope to sell their 2% debt at a profit when rates hit 1%.
"not to mention another rate cut by the Fed (which is priced in with 100%+ probability by the market)"
"Needless to say, the market - which is pricing in almost 5 rate cuts by Dec 2020, will not be happy by any unexpected Fed hawkishness."
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...g-us-night-bmo

Lagarde Praises Negative Rates (But Study Shows They Reduce Lending)
NO, NO, no, the credit bubble MUST grow.
Have Environmentalists Killed More Europeans Than Islamic Terrorists Did?
In Europe, people are dying because they’ve been told that their sacrifices will save the planet...

The Real "Helicopter Money": Since 2009, China Has Created $21 Trillion Of New Money, More Than Double The US
China’s money supply stands at Rmb192tn, equivalent to $28tn. It equals the size of broad money supply in the US and the eurozone put together, yet China’s nominal GDP is only two-thirds that of the US

How much of it left in currency flight?
China Crypto Miners Wiped Out By Flood; Bitcoin Hash Rate Hits ATHs

Recession Red Flag: The Wealthy Aren't Spending
Nervous Retirees Are Too Scared to Spend Ben Steverman Bookmark August 22 2019, 2:30 PM August 26 2019, 10:57 AM (Bloomberg Businessweek) -- The U.S. economic recovery, the longest in recorded history, has increased Americans’ wealth by $52 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/bq-bl...n-their-wealth

Bulls & Bears Enter The Thunderdome
Bull and bear are entering the Thunderdome in September and October and only one will emerge victoriously...

The Hollow Promise Of A Statist Economy
"Unfortunately, the young socialists are uninterested in truths. Not when the goal of hard work and paying one’s way in life has been reduced to a game for suckers.

AOC Claim That Millennials "Most Informed, Historically-Literate" Annihilated In Scathing Op-Ed

Armstrong, "Governments are moving in the opposite direction to eliminate physical money because Keynesianism has collapsed AKA Quantitative Easing. Moreover, end the fiat currency system and you have to end all social programs. You cannot promise everything for everybody and then restrict money. "
"t is far more than merely fiat money. We have to deal with the very core of the issue — political reform. Without that, everything else is indeed a fairy tale."
Ah yes,,, morality. Put a computer in charge.

13% of companies worldwide are zombies that can't service their debt. They still employ quite a few people. State money is used to preserve millions of jobs that would have disappeared due to outsourcing and automation. State debt is growing faster than exponentially.
" Nearly half (48%) of US workers report experiencing ‘layoff anxiety’.
And, this is during the “good times”, folks. Officially, we’re still in the longest economic expansion in US history.
What’s it going to be like when this long-in-the-tooth expansion ends, as all inevitably must?"
"As a result, today’s US companies are as or more dangerously leveraged than ever before. More than $9 Trillion of debt now burdens the balance sheets of America’s corporations:"
CB money that was pumped in to keep employment going.
"On top of that, as we’ve been long warning about here at PeakProsperity.com, employers currently have a tremendous perverse incentive to automate and replace human labor with technology.
The simple and harsh truth is that it’s expensive, and becoming more so, to employ humans. Wages, health care, retirement benefits, workers comp, OSHA regulations, lawsuits, training, vacations, sick days — it all adds up. Machines free employers from all of those costs, headaches and potential liabilities."
" 50% of current work activities are at risk of being automated by 2030, and that by that time, 400-800 million workers worldwide will be displaced by technology — creating “a challenge potentially greater than past historic shifts”."
https://www.peakprosperity.com/mass-...e-you-at-risk/

"The Fed’s market-centric and interventionist approach has essentially supported incumbent Presidents and Washington politicians. From this perspective, it is clearly “establishment” and susceptible to “deep state” innuendo. This regime is today challenged by President Trump, with his penchant for tariffs, confrontation, and scathing attacks on the Fed and its Chairman. The President is essentially blackmailing the Fed: Play ball or you’ll be blamed, ridiculed and targeted, with clear risk of losing your jobs along with the institution’s coveted independence."
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Dudley Sticks His Neck Out
I think that Trump intends to get rid of the FED. The existing framework just won't work for an economy where everything is automated.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:42 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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No more currency accords

"Between 1980 and 1985 the dollar had appreciated by about 50% against the Japanese yen, Deutsche Mark, French Franc and British pound, the currencies of the next four biggest economies at the time.[4] This caused considerable difficulties for American industry "
"By 1985, their campaign had acquired sufficient traction for Congress to begin considering passing protectionist laws. The prospect of trade restrictions spurred the White House to begin the negotiations that led to the Plaza Accord"
"The U.S. Federal Reserve System under Paul Volcker had halted the stagflation crisis of the 1970s by raising interest rates, but this resulted in the dollar becoming overvalued to the extent that it made industry in the U.S. (particularly the automobile industry) less competitive in the global market."
Next;
"The Louvre Accord was signed in 1987 to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar. "

"The president feels that lower US rates and a weaker USD would be good for the US. Participants at Jackson Hole suggested that a weaker USD and lower US interest rates would be good for the world. The similarity can be extended in that the president sees higher US rates as having choked off growth in the US economy, while the JH crowd sees higher US rates and a stronger USD as having choked off growth abroad"
"Of course, if that was all there is to the debate, then we would have a new Plaza Accord as soon as this weekend: after all, "everyone agrees" that the dollar is strong, right? Then just agree to devalue it."
"Carney felt that the USD’s pre-eminence in international financial transactions was disproportionate to the US’ importance in production and trade" as Englander recaps."
No mention at all of the lack of confidence in crabby European currencies.

"The surprise was his long-term recommendation that the USD-centric system of global finance be replaced by a multi-polar system, arguing that a system of “multiple reserve currencies would increase the supply of safe assets”."
What a crock of BS. They would never be equal. ONLY gold can meet this.
"What was not said that such a transfer of reserve status from a central bank-backed currency to a digital/crypto currency is a tacit admission that central banks are now powerless, and the transformation is one of necessity as the old, fiat model begins to fall apart (of course, none of this could be verbalized at a central banker convention)."
Will NOT fly as long as the currency is subject to the whims of politicians. You can bet that the East wants no part of this.
"Carney's proposal is certainly audacious, and "would appeal to the IMF, whose role in international financial policy would be increased. "
How many hate the IMF? Let me count them.
"The proposal looks a lot like a digital version of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) which has been around for fifty years. Interest in the SDR perks up every decade or so when the basket is reconfigured and then disappears"
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coo...secretly-works

The whole world is in competition to keep jobs domestically. They will never agree to any kind of worldwide currency that is controlled by any politician anywhere.
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Old 09-02-2019, 03:34 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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A few headlines to start the week

9/02 Worried about negative interest rates coming? They are already here – Forbes
9/02 The great refinancing cycle is upon us – Seeking Alpha
9/02 Major supply chain disruptions coming: thank Trump – Mish
9/02 This recession won’t be fixed by cheap cash and stimulus – AFR
9/02 Let’s get out before Italy falls on top of us – Conservative Woman


/01 Could Hong Kong disrupt China & the global markets further? – Technical Traders
9/01 The real “helicopter money”: China created twice as much new money as the US – ZH
9/01 Global fears, Uncle Sam’s red ink mean investors will feast on Treasury debt – Yahoo!

Apparently, there is an assumption that money renters will always by treasury debt, no matter what.
9/01 “Financial vandalism” of low and negative-yield bonds wreck pension plans – Mish
9/01 Jim Grant: this madness will all end with higher gold – Market Sanity
9/02 The end of the dollar as we know it – The Hill
9/02 Argentina imposes currency controls – Zero Hedge

8/31 Report: peak price bitcoin HODLers have cashed out – Yahoo!
There are a lot of people "cashing out"

9/01 Brexit: Keir Starmer says MPs ‘will propose legislation to stop no deal’ – BBC
9/01 Italy’s Salvini partied on the beach while rivals plotted his overthrow – Zero Hedge
9/01 New world order in meltdown, but Russia stronger than ever – Saker
9/01 The sheer scale of Britain’s constitutional crisis has been laid bare – Guardian
9/01 Bernie Sanders proposes cancelling $81 billion U.S. medical debt – Reuters

8/31 Brexit gloves come off, let the massacre begin says Eurointelligence – Mish
9/02 “Demand for EV cars now a problem:” lithium bust underway as prices collapse – ZH

8/31 Scientists ‘tantalized’ by draining dams in the US for solar panels – Science Alert

We don't need no stinkin irrigation.
9/01 Hezbollah fires anti-tank missiles at Israel, bomb shelters open in north – J Post
Last time that israel got sucked into Lebanon, they got spanked badly.
9/01 Hurricane Dorian nears category 5 with 150 mph winds – Fox News
Dorian has gusts up to 220 mph and, is moving at 3 mph. It will pound the Bahamas into the sand. For the absolute best info on Caribbean storms, go to;
https://stormcarib.com/
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Old 09-03-2019, 01:18 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Willie and Fulford,,,, reserve currency

Time to check in with the 2 loose cannons.
Fulford; August 26, 2019
Pentagon plans to deport Zionists as global financial reset looms

The U.S. military-industrial complex is making serious moves against Zionists, preparing to expel many of them to a Jewish autonomous zone in Siberia, Pentagon sources say. While the Pentagon and its allies are quite eager to take on Zionist control, even central bankers and G7 leaders meeting last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and Biarritz, France admit that an economic paradigm shift is needed. These moves are related to talk of a global financial reset that would end Zionist control of privately owned central banks, the sources say.

A whole slew of establishment bigwigs are all now publicly calling for a financial reset. These include IMF head Christine Lagarde, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Rothschild-owned Economist, and others. They have all called for replacing the U.S. dollar with a new international currency. Such a currency, almost by definition, would fall out of Zionist control because the interests of the world economy and those of the Zionist-controlled corporate U.S. government are in conflict.

“The trade war is a front for the global currency reset,” Pentagon sources confirm. U.S. President Donald Trump has been calling the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase Bank, Bank of America, Citigroup, and others to gain support for his stance on the trade war, the sources say. The cancellation by JPMorgan Chase of all credit card debt in Canada, the implosion of Deutsche Bank, the General Electric fraud exposure, the yuan devaluation, and a gold-backed dollar were all a part of the ongoing horse-trading for the new system, they say.

However much Trump blusters and makes calls, though, the numbers make it clear that the new system will take power away from the United States. The United States now accounts for only 10% of world trade, but over 70% of global GDP uses the U.S. dollar as an anchor currency, according to the Bank of England. This makes it obvious that any Global Currency Reset would take huge power away from the U.S. corporation.
This is the closest any sitting U.S. president has come to publicly declaring bankruptcy. Other Trump statements and actions all point to some existential crisis. He has tried to take over Greenland and its resources, charge allies for full costs of U.S. military bases “plus 50%,” and put tariffs on everything Chinese, all because of this impending default, multiple sources agree.

The U.S. military is preparing for the ongoing big changes by putting the Army in overall charge of the military while the Navy takes over control of the various intelligence agencies, the Pentagon sources say. This means the new head of all U.S. intelligence agencies is …"

A bit more from Fulford;
https://benjaminfulford.net/2019/08/...-many-predict/


Jim Willie;
"An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates."

Here is a side note where Armstrong shows the gold price in various currencies.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-currencies-2/
NOW,,,, USD-centric system of global finance be replaced by a multi-polar system, arguing that a system of “multiple reserve currencies would increase the supply of safe assets”
It just doesn't work that way. ALL currencies are subject to different levels of confidence. Multiple reserve currencies is a joke right from the start.
9/02 The end of the dollar as we know it – The Hill

This paper suggests that the dollar is not threatened as the hegemonic international currency, and that most analysts are incapable of understanding the resilience of the dollar, not only because they ignore the theories of monetary hegemonic stability or what, more recently, has been termed the geography of money, but also as a result of an incomplete understanding of what a monetary hegemon does. The paper argues that the dominant view on the international position of the dollar has been based on a Metallist view of money. In the alternative Cartalist view of money, the hegemon is not required to maintain credible macroeconomic policies (i.e., fiscally contractionary policies to maintain the value of the currency), but to provide an asset free of the risk of default. Further, it is argued that the current crisis in Europe shows why the euro is not a real contender for hegemony in the near future.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/...90.2012.698997

The various CBs are trying to dethrone the dollar.
World needs to end risky reliance on U.S. dollar: BoE's Carney
BOE's Carney Floats Idea of New, Virtual Reserve Currency
Carney Urges Libra-Like Reserve Currency to End Dollar


"to provide an asset free of the risk of default."
History is on America's side in this aspect.
Armstrong,
"It became the dollarization of the world economy just as it had been in ancient times with every dominant economy. The dollar became globalized in part because the USA also never cancelled its currency as was the routine case in Europe. Nations cancelled their currencies to force people to come clean and pay taxes."

"China will not replace the dollar as a reserve currency until debt is no longer used as reserves by nations. There is a separate and distinct difference between the currency being used in trade and the currency being used to store wealth. They do not have to be the same thing and are entirely two different animals."
"Until debt ceases to be money that simply pays interest, the dollar will not vanish as a reserve currency. There is no replacement as of yet. Even when China becomes the largest economy, that will not displace the “reserve” status of the dollar until there is a deep market to park cash. That is separate and distinct from trade being conducted in a variety of currencies. We have to revise the world monetary system. When we reach that point, then we can deal with creating an alternative for a “reserve” currency that is entirely distinct from trade currencies"

This has been said many times. Your trade currency can NOT be the same as your store of value.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...erve-currency/
The U.S. dollar is the preferred store of value. I believe that Trump, et al are trying to get rid of the FED and switch over to issuing debt-free money. There is no other solution for the advances of automation. With debt-free money, Federal GOV would have no need for taxing. Abandoning federal taxing would bring even more confidence to dollar holders. There would be less chance of default. The hunt for taxes is reaching criminal levels.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/tag/hunt-for-taxes/
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  #3442  
Old 09-03-2019, 03:50 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Finance vids,,,China slide

Keep in mind that a loan of money merits a payment of interest because the person who loans the money is forgoing current spending to spend later. All of this rationale gets turned on it's head when liquidity is created out of thin air. Also, a loan merits interest because of the risk of loss of principle. Since the CBs never face any kind of loss, why do they merit anything.

A few interesting vids.
IMF: The Days Of Being Paid Interest May Be Over Forever
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09gywF58KfA&t=50s
Central Banks Are Destroying the Financial System and Will Buy Everything For Pennies!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVYHuKN33AE&t=125s
Will The Hong Kong Protests Result In Civil War? (w/ TL Tsim) | Real Vision Classics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TlBNyg_G7s&t=598s

China created the largest mass migration in history. It was artificial, not organic. It is looking increasingly difficult to manage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t487ILVf87k&t=111s
Stephan Molyneux has a concise vid on how U.S. GOV ordered the banks to make loans to people who couldn't pay them back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0OwcPCPFW8
Economic Battle Lines Being Drawn Across the Globe. Substitute "employment" for economic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nvohS58uj4

Beware (And Prepare): The American Empire Is Collapsing
RonPaulLibertyReport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUzkdfy8GWg
Dr. Paul needs to take a more international view. Socialism will take down a government just as well as militarism.
Germany's SPD wants to target super rich with wealth tax .
Now can ANY German advocate socialism? The decades-long lesson of a screwed-up East Germany should cure any German of a yearning for socialism.
The French GOV spends 57% of the GDP. Remember that money spent on consumption is rarely repaid.

Bizarro world
9/02 Almost half of top quality euro corp bonds have sub-zero yields – Reuters
9/02 Blain: “Coming tragedy will widen the divisions between East and West” – ZH
Trump is hard at work to bring China to revolution.
9/02 Investors flee emerging markets funds during the third quarter – Lipper
That includes China.
9/01 China’s dream of making the yuan a global currency hit by Hong Kong protests – SCMP
How convenient.
8/31 Dollar jumps, yuan falls ahead of new tariffs this weekend – CNBC
How very unfortunate for China

Joel Stein, But I don’t care if Americans think we’re running the news media, Hollywood, Wall Street or the government. I just care that we get to keep running them.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...n19-story.html
9/02 Hollywood reboots Russophobia for the new cold war – OffGuardian
As long as Trump refuses to blow up the world, he will have a lot of enemies. I fear that the IRGC and Hezbollah will take this as a sign that they can march into israel without worrying about Pox Americana.

"If the current bubbles follow the pattern of all other speculative credit-driven bubbles, they will pop, without much warning and with devastating consequences for all those who believed the bubbles couldn't possibly pop."
"What happens when these monstrous speculative bubbles pop? Trillions in phantom wealth vanish, pension funds go broke, states, cities and counties are insolvent, and nest eggs invested in speculative assets dry up and blow away."
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...ement-and.html

This is a good article and, you should read it. There is something VERY important to remember.
Regulatory capture has allowed the banks to privatise the gains and, socialize the losses. If recent history is any guide, when the collapse hits, the banks will simply take all your money and say that they need it. It is all very legal under the bail-in laws.
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Old 09-03-2019, 02:36 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Recession signals

28 signs of recession.
"#25 Instead of pumping his company’s funds into the stock market, Warren Buffett has decided to hoard 122 billion dollars in cash. This appears to be a clear indication that he believes that a crisis is coming."
I'll bet that he believes that his cash isn't at risk of evaporating.
"#5 Mortgage defaults are rising at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis."
"#8 The Cass Freight Index has been falling for a number of months. According to CNBC, it fell “5.9% in July, following a 5.3% decline in June and a 6% drop in May.”"
Good points, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ptember-begins

"Yves Mersch, European Central Bank’s key legal official, said that Facebook’s Libra stablecoin is “beguiling but treacherous” during a speech at the ECB’s legal conference in Frankfurt on Monday."
A very interesting article because the CBs fear the competition from crypto.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...oks-siren-call

"Williams believes further Fed interest rate cuts are cutting, money printing madness quantitative easing (QE) likely to follow. Will monetary policy and tax cuts strengthen economic conditions?

Corporations used their windfall for executive pay increases and bonuses, stock buybacks raising valuations, mergers and acquisitions to reduce competition, dividends to shareholders, and stashing trillions of dollars in offshore tax havens.

Economic growth depends on productive investments, creating jobs, absent in the US, its industrial base and other high-paying jobs offshored to low-wage countries."
Gutted by the global mean wage.
https://stephenlendman.org/2019/09/a...ession-coming/

"The list is long for the intentional de-industrialization of production. Most intuitively understand that the elimination of good paying jobs is not an accident. Perceptive individuals even know the reasons and players who systematically promote the most perverted of all caught phrases, Free Trade. "
"With each passing day the crumbling society, that surrounds our communities sink deeper into national insolvency. Working harder or even smarter will not provide the ladder to climb out of this abyss.

The triumphant middle class is rapidly becoming the beholding subsistent underclass.

In order to reverse this debacle the entire superstructure of globalization must be overturned. It is better to face the inescapability of the inevitable fiscal cataclysm, which stems from the debt crisis. When the dollar collapses and the debt obligations repudiated, the country must demand rational and balanced trade protectionism and re-industrialization of a manufacturing economy. The goal is to re-create independence through product self-reliance. Closing of the borders from transnational dumping from abroad is imperative to put Americans back to work."
Labor in America Does Not Pay

"In the last two centuries, all wars have been machinations orchestrated by bankers pursuing two very simple objectives: profit and a world domination that bears a name: the New World Order."
"When a country goes to war, it borrows money from private banks that lend funds that they create out of thin air. Now, bankers will not only get back the funds that they never had, but will also charge interest on these loans. They will even change the interest rate at will, trying to hold in their laughter. Next step, countries will use this fake money to buy military equipment from industries in which international bankers are major shareholders or partners in investment. This equipment is then used to destroy as much infrastructure as possible in the countries at war, so that everything needs to be rebuilt by governments that will borrow more money from bankers, to pay construction companies partially or totally owned by bankers. This is why carpet-bombing on civilians was invented."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rld-domination
Once again, we see enormous perverse incentives that lead the bankers to continuously push for war.

Futures Slide After Trade Deal Hope Turns To Dread Slash & burn.
As FedSpeak-Fest Begins, Trader Fears "Cure Has Become Worse Than The Disease"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-worse-disease
China Lodges Tariff Complaint Against US With World Trade Organization
China is the second largest economy in the world. Just the same, it demands special preferential treatment because it is an "emerging market".
Trump US Slaps New Tariffs On China ...One Minute Later China Retaliates
Rebels Willing To Lose Their Jobs To Block 'no-deal' Brexit
Whatever it takes to make the City of London bankers happy.

Former US Military Official Calls AI-Run Nuclear Arsenal More Of A Threat Than 'Killer Robots'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coloss...Forbin_Project

9/03 Here’s a list of recession signals that are flashing red – CNBC
9/03 Demoralized, depressed, detached & defiant – Burning Platform
9/03 Argentines wait at banks to withdraw cash as currency controls kick in – Reuters
9/03 Oil and gas bankruptcies to accelerate as $137 billion debt matures – Zero Hedge
9/03 No more debt = “horrifying depression” – Economic Collapse


9/03 Thai cryptocurrency exchange Bitcoin Co. closing down operations – Coin Telegraph
9/03 The mystery of low inflation despite huge debt – Japan Times

Japan's Population Is In Rapid Decline : NPR
We need a sense of crisis over depopulation | The Japan Times
Japan's fertility crisis is terrifying and unprecedented - Business Insider

MAYBE, there is a connection.
Is Elon Musk Right About Global "Population Collapse"?
Elon Musk continues to suggest a population collapse is in store within a few decades time

9/03 Elon Musk, Jack Ma: biggest problem world will face is population drop – CNBC

Kunstler, "The tremors of August appear to mark the end of the ten-year bull market run, a.k.a. “the recovery,” a last-ditch central bank orchestrated campaign to pretend that economic growth is infinite on a finite planet. The magic of credit — “money” untethered to resources — drained economic mojo from the future"
"not avail to prevent a horrendously destructive work-out of loans that can never be paid back. Default makes money disappear. The response, of course, will be to print more money untethered to real stuff. An orgy of QE could easily drive stock markets higher, only those markets will be indexed to money losing its value. "
"A rowdy-dowdy financial smash-up will tarnish the Trump MAGA brand for sure. But will the Golden Golem of Greatness simply stew in the oval office or try some desperate new stunts to salvage his quixotic political career? And will his shaky marriage with the Republican Party veer into divorce court,"

"However, there is a possibility that the 2020 election will be such an unholy mess, with contested poll results in key states, lawsuits flying in every direction, and monkeyshines in the electoral college, that it will be ironically left to the Deep State to try to save the republic (after their recent attempt to wreck it). "
https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/the-quickening/
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Old 09-04-2019, 03:13 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Armstrong,,, defaults,,, upturn in the war cycle

Here is a good article about the financial problems in Italy. The article cites some interesting precedents.
"|Cyprus provides a lesson for what could happen to bank depositors in France if Italy defaults. After lending billions of dollars to Greece, Cyprus banks faced a liquidity crisis in early 2013. To prevent bank runs Cyprus closed its banks for 12 days.

When the “bank holiday” ended, depositors were unable to close their accounts and move their funds elsewhere. In exchange for a €10 billion ECB bailout, Cyprus restricted withdrawals to prevent capital flight. Bank customers could only withdraw €1,000 daily from their accounts. When the dust settled, depositors holding uninsured accounts that exceeded the €100,000 ECB deposit guarantee received stock in the failed banks instead of getting their money back. This is the famous bail-in scenario that’s now been exported to the rest of the world."
https://www.nestmann.com/how-the-nex...c0223e68310bb1
Good article.

Armstrong, " Countries have been borrowing year after year with no intention of paying off their national debts. It has been a fool’s game and we are starting to see this pressure build as it will FIRST on the currency pegs, and then on the inability to meet debt payments.
Welcome to Big Bang (2015.75-2022). We begin with peripherals and state/provincial level as well as municipal."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...mic-emergency/
Once again, Armstrong points out any entity without a printing press will be in big trouble. I.e.municipal debt. Any currency with a peg will break that peg.

"COMMENT: Marty; I found my ticket to your Japanese session from March 1999 when you warned the audience the club was targeting the yen for March-end. You told everyone how to defeat their manipulation and that was just great. You saved everyone billions that day. They called you Mr. Yen for that one. The club didn’t appreciate that call. I heard that on the phones. I remember the yen went from 117 to 122. They lost a lot that week."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-modern-times/

"I’ve been a big fan of your blogs for all these years. May I ask if you have any recommendation of books..."
"ANSWER: Unfortunately, the book I wrote back in 1986, “The Greatest Bull Market in History,” brings as much as $3,000 on eBay. Paul Tudor Jones had bought a large quantity and distributed them to his clients so that is probably where most have survived. I have only one copy myself. The receiver confiscated all the copies to prevent them from getting out, I believe, at the request of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission"
"There really is an effort to prevent any real analysis that exposes the business cycle and those manipulating markets from the safe haven they have been granted in New York City. Everyone knows that NEVER is a single banker every criminally charged for what they do. Even Steve Bannon, the former adviser to Trump who did work at Goldman Sachs, has called the failure to ever prosecute a single person in New York just outrageous. "

"I am also finishing for the WEC “How do Empires, Nations & City-States Fall – The Dark Age Cycle.” This will be the first time I release the “Dark Age Cycle,” which has been back-tested to 6,000 BC. I have provided the reconstruction of the world monetary system for the first time in an effort to demonstrate how I have used coinage to document history. My research also allows me to answer vital questions of how empire, nations, and city-states actually fall and how rapidly this type of move unfolds."
"I have also undertaken the study of the emergence of Dark Ages and compiled the checklist that distinguishes a shift in political orientation from a collapse in civilization itself where it takes a reboot to start all over again."
"Here is the email from Tancred Schiavoni demanding the source code to Socrates be turned over to the government or they would fire all employees. They used the case as an open door to try to stop all forecasting."

"They banned the film the Magnitsky Affair in the USA and the Forecaster has been shown on TV in Europe, Asia, and even in Canada – but not the United States. Why? If it is just conspiracy talk, that they allowed being aired."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...dom-of-speech/
It is painfully clear that the NYC banks are the central focus point of corruption.

Another good article on corruption.
"The Thai military in its coups has followed the same path. Their interventions and unlike those of various military dictatorships in European history. They step in, deal with corruption, and then surrender power back to the political state."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...from-the-west/

Rense,
If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The US Would Immediately Plunge Into Horrifying Depression

The Fed's Not A Politics-Free Technocracy It's An Agent Of Redistribution To The Top

No financial bubble can ever be stable. It invariably grows until it bursts. The bubble demands that new loans be created to roll over old loans + interest. How does that work with a falling population? How does that work with falling purchasing power? A smaller population consumes less. A falling standard of living entails less consumption.

Pakistan To Distribute 5 Million Chickens To Tackle Malnutrition Problem
Better to distribute chickens that to start a war with India as a diversion.

Israel Evacuates Soldiers From Military Base Hit By Hezbollah

Hezbollah Chief Says All Israeli Forces At Risk In Case Of New Attack On Lebanon

'No More Tolerance Of Israel Over Lebanese Airspace' Hezbollah Head Signals 'new Phase' Of Conflict

Lebanon has an economic emergency. Will they attack israel as a diversion?

Is the Fed Preparing to Topple the US Dollar?
https://www.globalresearch.ca/is-fed...dollar/5687786
Another interesting paper from the same people.
"The UAF WTC 7 report concludes that the collapse of WTC 7 on 9/11 was caused not by fire but rather by the near-simultaneous failure of every column in the building."
https://www.globalresearch.ca/fire-d...-finds/5688098

9/04 Fed’s Rosengren sees ‘no immediate’ easing needed – Bloomberg
NO, Wait! Wall street has already priced in a cut 100%.
9/04 Swiss negative rate at ‘pain threshold’, Pictet chief tells FAZ – Bloomberg
9/04 “The eurozone faces the worst combination of economic and systemic risk” – CG


9/04 VanEck, Solidx to offer bitcoin ETF-like product to institutions – Coindesk
9/04 Cryptos surge after launch of first bitcoin ETF – Talk Markets
9/04 Bitcoin bubble has nothing on world’s biggest bond mania – Forbes

This is so STUPID. I invested in tulip bulbs. They are rare and valuable.
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Old 09-05-2019, 03:01 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The CBs flog the same dead horse

" Passive investments are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News.

“The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was. All this gets worse as you get into even less liquid equity and bond markets globally,” he said."

"The problem in 2008 was too much debt, and the predictable knee-jerk regulatory response was to tighten bank capital requirements. "
Yep, the FED handed the banks $trillions of "excess reserves". That really tightened things up.
" Forsaking the advice of Walter Bagehot, who stated that the function of a central bank during a panic was to lend freely at a penalty rate against good collateral, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, lending freely, at a far-from-penalty rate, against poor collateral. Even this monetary largesse failed to suffice"
"For finance ministries, zero interest rates on government bonds are a blessing and a curse. For the first time in history, they can raise capital for nothing or even receive an interest payment for their trouble."
So what if ZIRP wipes out pension funds, insurance funds, savers, etc. As long as the State can borrow for no cost.
"There are, of course, other bond buyers, such as pension funds and insurance companies, that are obligated to purchase their government’s debt obligations. "
We're from the government,,, give us your money.
https://www.aier.org/article/economi...est-rate-world

"So, naturally, what is getting play is a story that Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the dollar’s influence could decline. This is somewhat ironic, because in true Keynesian fashion, Carney believes in a “savings glut” which he laments has caused “low inflation”.
Everyone should be bellowing from the rooftops, not about the greatly exaggerated death of the dollar, but that major currencies are dropping so fast!"
"In gold terms, since that same date, the euro has fallen over 18%. We don’t know why Europeans aren’t screaming “bloody murder” at this not-so-subtle looting. And to a somewhat lesser degree, Americans should be right there yelling too."
"That means: if the price of gold doubles, the gold owner may have twice as many dollars but those dollars are each worth half as much. It is good to own gold, not for making profits but for avoiding the loss of the currency."

Emerging Market Central Banks Panic With Most Rate Cuts Since Financial Crisis
And they wonder why their currencies slide down.

Jim Willie writes about the rising dollar paradox. It's all tied to confidence.
King Dollar Paradox: Global Reserve
Armstrong, "Our computer forecasts the start of what we called Big Bang that began 2015.75. That was more than just the beginning of crazy negative interest rates and the start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis, which is becoming painfully obvious at the state and local levels. The crisis will expand into the federal levels probably around 2021-2022 in Europe and then Japan. "
Armstrong has clearly warned that municipal and State debt will blow up first.
"It is ALWAYS economics which create political change."
"Our computer is the ONLY forecast that got both correct without human opinion – just economics. Why do you think the press will NEVER report our forecasts? "
"Government abuses their power and over-tax and over-regulate in a quest to maintain control. In that process, they inevitably seal their own fate and thus governments die by their own hand. There is simply no exception. Undermine the economy and everything else will change accordingly."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...r-v-influence/

Brexit
London's reign as the world's capital of capital is at risk -
City of London downbeat over EU market access after Brexit

"Likewise, this aids those in Britain desperate to keep their perks and pensions in place so they are selling out Britain for personal gain using the same issue as trade."
"So far the Euro/Sterling Cross has been following the forecast array perfectly. The low was March followed by the breakout May/June with a Directional Change due in September. The next target is November followed by January."
"What is very clear is that the financial markets are far more afraid of Labour taking power than BREXIT. We do not see any reversal of fortune for the pound and its long-term decline before 2021. Labour has become extreme. They will most certainly destroy the capital formation in Britain perhaps once and for all."
Armstrong is definitely a cheerleader for the banks.
"China will listen to the US news which will show Trump losing 2020 even if you put a monkey up as the Democratic candidate. The press is so against Trump that they will turn this trade issue into real insanity."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...turning-point/

9/05 The world’s central banks have lost credibility with markets – Bloomberg
The politicians would never allow a turndown in the markets so, they eternally goose them.
9/05 Let’s be serious, members of the media can’t cause a ‘recession’ – Real Clear Market
Yeah,, right
9/05 “The 2020s will begin with the lowest interest rates in 5000 years” – Zero Hedge
That might have something to do with the "money" supply being the highest in 5,000 years.
The Trump effect, 9/04 U.S. judge orders big drug companies to face opioid trial – Reuters

9/05 ECB back to easing again, but inflation still not in its grip – Reuters
9/05 NY Fed’s John Williams says low inflation is ‘the problem of this era’ – CNBC

Of course, wage deflation and population deflation don't enter into the equation.
9/04 Negative interest rates threaten the financial system – Bloomberg
No mention of negative population growth
9/05 New Hampshire power brokers paralysed by size of Democratic field – Politico
NOPE, they are paralysed by the absolutely horrible qualifications of the field.
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Old 09-06-2019, 03:43 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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More speed bumps

China desperately needs to earn dollars to service dollar denominated debt.
U.S. imports of advanced technology products from China in the first seven months of the year fell by nearly $20 billion
EU Bank Bosses Warn Of "Grave Consequences" If ECB Keeps Cutting Rates
“In the long run, negative rates ruin the financial system,” Sewing said at the event, organized by the Handelsblatt newspaper."
"While incoming ECB head Christine Lagarde has claimed that the benefits of deeply negative rates outweigh the costs "
She's a lawyer, NOT an economist.
"According to Sewing, all it would achieve is to further divide society by lifting asset prices while punishing Europe’s savers who are already paying 160 billion euros ($176 billion) a year because of negative interest rates."
Maybe they should have bought gold.

"So, with Draghi facing push back from an increasingly hawkish group of ECB members, the question is, will he just push off the decision? Starting October 31, how the Eurozone will be destroyed - whether with hyperinflation fire and deflationary ice - will no longer be Draghi's decision, but instead the final destruction of the Eurozone will be delegated to arguably the most clueless person (see Argentina) in the room."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-cutting-rates
ZIRP is destroying the banks. Maybe it's all part of euthanasia of the rentier.

"“It is astonishing how little US policymakers know, who are supposedly or at least in their own mind the smartest people in the room, that despite spending countless billions of dollars on militarism, weapons development … the US is a declining empire,” Lendman told Press TV on Wednesday."
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/...n-Paul-Lendman

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos Sells Stock Valued At $1.8B - CRN
9/05 Bond flood continues as companies, including Apple, sell $56 billion in two days – ZH
" Stocks have liquidity, and potential return (or loss), but no safety of principal. Treasuries have a stated return, and a high degree of safety. However, in order to guarantee the stated return, Treasuries must be held to maturity"
ALL governments eventually default.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/no-...nt-overvalued/
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Old 09-06-2019, 02:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Changes after 1979,,, giving up on negative interest rates

Armstrong; "I leave you alone and you leave me alone and we can all get along. I object to politics that seeks to exploit class warfare for historically that has ALWAYS, and without exception, led to civil war."
This is a good article on comparative values of different currencies.
Armstrong, "1998 Russian collapse. All the big names lost billions. Even the New York Times reported that George Soros lost $2 billion. You were the only one who made money My question is this. Since all the big names were involved in the Russia trade which took down Long-Term Capital Management, is this why you call them the “club” for they all do seem to be involved in the same trade?"
"Correct. This is also why they try to prevent people from listening to me. They are convinced that the reason they lost was that I was too influential and had too many institutions listening to me. That absurdity is what they ran to the government with, so I was then accused of “manipulating” the world economy. They all lost after I warned them and refused to join in their takeover of Russia I"
" It was the US bankers, with the support of the Clintons, who first tried to interfere into Russian elections. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-always-wrong/

Armstrong writes about demurrage currency.
"there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day"
"The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain."
"Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy"

Back during the Great Depression, there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day.

The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain. The United States has never cancelled its currency so a note from the Civil War is still legal tender. But that is not the case in Europe.

Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy.

The chart patterns for the Euro are about as long-term bearish as one can imagine. The problem facing the world economy is this idea that they can even FORCE people to spend their savings recklessly as the government does. Cancelling the euro may be a drastic and desperate step, but it is being proposed as an alternative to deep negative interest rates which have failed to work for more than 10 years. The middle ground proposes a paper currency with expiration dates."
Mario Draghi is headed out the door. Lagarde is a lawyer, now an economist. Europe is just too socialist to operate with a debt-currency.

"Either way, the risk of a profound dollar rally remains in the wings. The powers behind the curtain desperately want to defeat Trump for they know he would NEVER cancel the American currency. To pull that off, they need a career politician. Joe Biden would be perfect. He might just sign whatever bill is put before him and then take a nap. It is ironic, but there would be a lot of Americans who would wake up and want Trump bank after that one."
Everywhere that you look, there are forces trying to bring communism to America. As long as Trump resists, the dollar will continue to rise. This will continue to destroy competing currencies.
Either way, the risk of a profound dollar rally remains in the wings. The powers behind the curtain desperately want to defeat Trump for they know he would NEVER cancel the American currency. To pull that off, they need a career politician. Joe Biden would be perfect. He might just sign whatever bill is put before him and then take a nap. It is ironic, but there would be a lot of Americans who would wake up and want Trump bank after that one.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...cancel-it-all/
Socialism and communism just don't work. BUT, a fully automated economy with nobody working won't work either.

"There was a somewhat successful call yesterday between US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. The call concluded that the US and China will resume trade talks in person at the beginning of October."
9/06 Hooray! Another month of “trade deal around the corner” discussion – Mish
9/06 Alasdair Macleod: U.S. dollar is more at risk than China’s yuan – GATA
9/05 China’s private bond defaults climb to record $4.4 billion – Bloomberg

9/06 Blackrock: Central banks will debase everything to spark inflation – ZH MMT or nothing.


The monetary policy endgame
September 05, 2019, 01:51:43 AM EDT By Rick Rieder, BlackRock

"The first principle is that the major central banks embraced a roughly 2% inflation target (implicit for the Federal Reserve since, at least, 1995 and explicitly stated since 2012), "
Paul Volker, A Presbyterian, was the only FED head to refuse to do the 2% INFLATION TARGETING.
"The commitment to the 2% inflation target is extremely important for understanding our current monetary policy challenges,"
Yes, that 2% increase was what financed all the speculation by the bankers..

"However, before we answer that we must examine why inflation peaked in 1979 and why it has been in a downtrend since then? In other words, what are the structural forces creating disinflation ? There are four major forces that created inflation prior to 1979 and resulted in disinflation afterward. First, the population growth rate following the post war Baby Boom peaked around 1979/1980 and subsequently slowed. Second, the growth rate of female participants in the labor force also peaked around 1979/1980 and subsequently slowed. Third, the U.S. and China opened diplomatic and trade relations in 1979, as a result of Deng Xiaoping's reforms, arguably marking the beginning of the latest stage of globalization. Finally, the oil shocks of the 1970s, ending with the 1979 Iranian Revolution and a surge in oil-driven inflation were a critical factor in the price rises of that time."

"The fact is that central banks' actions, so far, have simply been too modest to matter against the backdrop of these tectonic changes. Moreover, we would argue that central banks have already achieved meaningful price stability (for instance, the volatility of CPI is near its lowest levels in history), but the natural rate of inflation is simply not 2%, but rather is something lower. So, despite the seemingly large size of monetary policy stimulus by historic standards, central banks have still only brought "a knife to a gun fight,"
The "natural rate" of population inflation has been suppressed. No surprise that everything else follows.

Consumer price inflation is at about 6%. It has come down from about 10% (Shadowstats)
Asset price inflation is off the charts. The bankers inflated the snot out of the upper loop, leaving the lower loop to twist in the wind. They told everybody that there would be a trickle down effect for wages. NO possible way. We slide down towards a global mean wage at the same time that automation takes over. All the PTB is at a loss to explain the lack of consumption.

"While the point is debatable, we do not think the arsenal of central bank tools is near exhausted, which brings us to the endgame and the concept of fiat currency . There are two ways inflation is created: one is to actually raise the prices of goods and services organically, but the other is to debase the currency in which those goods and services are sold (think helicopter money). Because the former method relies on traditional aggregate demand stimulus (lower interest rates), which has not been working, since the natural rate of aggregate demand growth is now so low (and in some places is contracting) and the supply curve is so flat; the endgame may well be monetary debasement "

This is a very good example of blatant stupidity.
"raise the prices of goods" But, not wages
OK, so they debase the money. We'll all make $1,000 an hour
"The most famous case of hyperinflation is the one that occurred in Germany during the Weimar Republic, from January 1919 until November 1923. According to Investopedia, “the average price level increased by a factor of 20 billion, doubling every 28 hours.”

"And, potentially more importantly, extremely low rates can and will encourage fiscal actors to add more, and potentially dramatically more, debt to an already historically-levered set of economies (e.g. the increased discussion of MMT)"
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-m...game-cm1207679
"add more, debt"
There you have it,, clear as can be. Printing debt-free money will add more debt.
The battle rages on. The money renters don't want to see their niche wiped out. Automation will wipe out something eventually.
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Old 09-08-2019, 02:23 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Where the money went,,,, universal basic income

It's getting so much more difficult to keep track of all the competing pressures. Behind everything, there is an ongoing effort to reduce world population.
The Kissinger Report explicitly lays out the detailed strategy by which the United States government aggressively promotes population control in developing nations in order to regulate (or have better access to) the natural resources of these countries."
Advocates of population control say that one of the most effective measures we can take to combat climate change is to sharply reduce the number of humans on the planet."

We previously had an economic system based loosely on capitalism. It also had a fair dose of socialism and redistribution. Regulatory capture brought us a big increases in crony-capitalism. This is beginning to smell a lot like Fascism; the marriage of BIG GOV and BIG business. Meanwhile, corporatism is trying to erase democracy.
The money renters have taken control of the State to shift all the wealth to themselves. A business is a money-making enterprise. A family / household is a money-losing enterprise. As the wealth percolates up to the top, the money-losing enterprises close down.
The money renters now find that nobody wants, or can afford to rent their money.
They, then rent their money to the State believing that the masses will be forced to shoulder the repayment.
44 million Americans receive direct assistance from the State. 51% of Americans receive a check from the GOV. 23 million Americans work for the GOV. U.S. GOV spends about 30% of the GDP.

Lew Rockwell During his first 31 months in office – and at the very top of the longest business cycle in history – he has added $2.7 trillion to the net public debt,", (Trump)
The numbers that are thrown around are just so enormous;
"We manage UC investment funds and provide fiduciary oversight. The Office of the Chief Investment Officer of the Regents currently manages a portfolio of investments totalling approximately $120 billion"
They also receive about $2 billion from the FEDs. This is all shown in the comprehensive financial report.

All public entities are required to file a comprehensive financial report. Walter
Burien at CAFR 1 reports that the aggregated wealth reported
by Government agencies amounts to $237 trillion.

Remember that Keynes projected that we would all be so wealthy by ABOUT 1980-90 that we would only have to work about 15 hours a week. George Jetson works 1 hour a day, 2 days a week.
There is an enormous amount of liquidity floating around but, it just isn't within reach of those who do the actual productive work. To make matters worse, there are 96 million Americans who are not in the labor force.

Shumpeter came up with the idea of "creative destruction". We need to constantly destroy stuff so that we can continue to work and, produce new stuff. The military spending is about $1 trillion a year. Federal debt service is about 1/2 trillion.
Surprise! You Work Nearly 4 Months Every Year Just to Pay taxes.
About these taxes;
"Not one dime of IRS money goes to the US Gov't", according to Reagan's Grace Commission: it all goes to pay interest on a bogus debt to the Private Federal Reserve (FED), just to allow paper money to circulate as "Federal Reserve Notes".

Why does the UC system need to gouge students so that it can amass a fortune of $120 billion?
Why do 37,000 government agencies need to amass a cumulative fortune of $237 trillion?
Keynes said that we would only need to work 15 hours a week. The banks and the State steal a LOT of our earnings. Suppose that we only worked 15 hours a week. There would be far less to steal. Suppose that we redesigned our military for domestic defence only?

Automation, outsourcing and a global mean wage have crashed down consumption. There is no escaping low wages as long as automation keeps destroying more and more niches formerly occupied by humans. With consumption and legitimate credit demand falling, there is no possible solution in the world of Keynesian economics. The CBs create megatons of mega pixels that are supposed to serve as a store of value. They wonder why the interest rate has fallen. All the "money" that they have locked away is frozen in the upper loop where it is unavailable to the mass of consumers.
That may have sounded like a good idea at one time but now, starvation and revolution are entering the stage.

While the money renters are keen to keep their advantage, they also don't want to see revolution and general destruction. South Africa is at that stage now. They have started looting and burning. The fuel companies are refusing to deliver fuel. Things will crash pretty rapidly without fuel and food.

The PTB are looking for some way to avoid worldwide revolution. In the upcoming crash, most of the notional wealth is just going to evaporate. 5.1 million Americans starved to death in Great Depression one. That was back when 44% lived on the farm.
NIRP, ZIRP and the rest of the BS that was designed to keep the banks in power and, create a trickle down effect for the middle class are a complete failure.
MMT was bandied about to see the reaction. The money renters HATE the idea of free money. It looks like universal basic income will be used as the antidote for crushing poverty that promises to accompany the emerging collapse of the State.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQjrhIyaPyg&t=120s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIL_Y9g7Tg0&t=317s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qj6AU7dRrA


The CBs would like to maintain control;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3BjMUd391c&t=730s
I'm not sure what Powell is up to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrzIyfiDb44&t=236s

Negative Rates Multiplying At A Staggering Rate
"Unheard of since the Mesopotamian invention of debt in 2,400 BC, negative interest rates have suddenly appeared on the financial landscape like a new mutant species, an invader without natural predators, gaining a sudden foothold and then spreading rapidly.

From literally ‘none’ ten years ago, to more than $17 trillion now. And up from a ‘mere’ $6 trillion in the past ten months alone:"
"Whatever the final repercussions are, one fact is clear: the world’s central banks are completely, 100% responsible for these bizarro-world negative interest rates.

They try to pretend that the $20+ trillion money printing spree they engineered after 2008 isn’t a root cause. Instead, they claim “the markets” are responsible."
Of course, it wouldn't be smart to claim that the politicians are responsible for the printing.
“5,000 years of financial trial and error has firmly established that saved capital deserves a positive rate of return. You are now certain that negative interest rates are what the world needs."
"Saved capital" my arse. This air money merits thin air interest. Is that so hard to comprehend?
"So many things are changing. And the rate of change is speeding up, too. It’s barely possible to fashion a comprehensive plan for what to do about it. " NOT EVEN
"The rate of change is accelerating. Things are speeding up. That’s how exponential systems behave. "
https://www.peakprosperity.com/its-t...hat-kills-you/

9/07 Heavy-duty truck orders collapse, production slashed, cancellation orders soar – ZH
9/07 Profiles in absurdity: remembering the ‘terror’ wars – Antiwar

What do you mean "absurdity"? Some people made a LOT of money.
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Old 09-08-2019, 03:38 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Who will hold power?

WaPo Warns USA Needs More Narrative Control As Pentagon Ramps Up Narrative Control

Putin Warned Bush About Impeding Attack TWO DAYS Before 9/11 ' Ex-CIA Analyst

Is The US Government The Enemy Of The People? America's Enormous Post 9/11 Lost Liberties


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Assuming that the world goes into economic meltdown, just how much incentive will Americans have to try to preserve the old system,,, the police state,,,, the military-industrial power complex,,,, the banking dynasties,,,, the control structures?
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Old 09-08-2019, 09:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Price, Pareto and the un-necessary cogs.

Price’s Law

" The square root of the number of people in a domain do 50% of the work.
This means that in a company of 10 employees, 3 of them do 1/2 the work. The remaining 50% of the work is done by the other 7 people.
This scales too.
When there are 100 employees, 10 of them do 1/2 the work. The other 90% are doing the other half of the work."
As your company grows, incompetence grows exponentially and competence grows linearly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q0PCDEJWek
Governments employ 20 percent or more of workers in nine states
Government Workers Now Outnumber Manufacturing Workers

So, there are 23 million at all levels who work for GOV.
square root(23 million) 4795.83152331

"Pareto principle

"The Pareto principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, is a theory maintaining that 80 percent of the output from a given situation or system is determined by 20 percent of the input."
"Applying the Pareto Principle to business metrics helps to separate the "vital few" (the 20 percent that has the most impact) from the "useful many" (the other 80 percent)."

50% of current work activities are technically automatable by adapting currently demonstrated technology.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McK...V9_Ex5_rj.ashx

Parkinson's Law
The Mathematics of Bureaucracy
"Weber's criticism of bureaucracy is probably closer to how many people see it today. John Pourdehnad, management consultant and educator, agrees with Weber's criticism, writing on his blog that a bureaucracy "takes steps to preserve itself: It makes work and introduces red tape, and it imposes nonfunctional requirements on others, which 'justify' the made work."

Pourdehnad also adds that because people are being promoted based on seniority rather than merit, the bureaucratic organization continues to grow uncontrollably. "Since performance is not critical for survival, size is. ...Therefore, growth becomes an objective because it is an efficient way to secure survival," he argues."
"work expands to fill the time available for its completion" and in bureaucratic organizations, the number of people required to do the work will continually rise whether the actual volume of work stays the same, increases, decreases or disappears."
"According to Parkinson, this occurs because workers want to multiply subordinates, not rivals, and make work for each other. For example, an overworked employee wants to diminish the amount of work he has to do. He can either: 1) resign, 2) halve the work with a colleague of equal standing in the company or 3) hire two junior employees to work under him.

The first option leaves him jobless, and the second brings a potential rival for a promotion. The third option is the only one that allows him to keep his standing in the company while allowing him to do less."
Growth per year "The percentage will "invariably prove to be between 5.17 percent and 6.56 percent."
"The three assigned efficiency curves to workers throughout their life and computed the time when they should optimally retire, or what Parkinson referred to as the "Pension Point," to ensure a "maximum efficiency within the body."

The physicists also came up with a way to quantify how large a committee can grow before it becomes inefficient. The number they came up with is 20 "
"They found that groups with fewer than 20 members tend to reach an agreement whereas those with more than 20 splintered into groups that agreed within themselves but remained deadlocked as a whole. Additionally, the computer simulations found one number of members that ended with a high probability of deadlock: eight. (It is perhaps worth noting that 90 percent of small businesses in the U.S. employ fewer than 20 people"
"In 1955, Parkinson noted that no nation had a cabinet of eight. As New Scientist points out, only one British monarch in U.K. history had eight council members: Charles I. His and his cabinet's decision-making led to the English Civil War and eventually his beheading."
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/i...e-inefficient/

Automation eliminates entire niches of jobs,,, the simplest jobs first. The remaining jobs demand better skills.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjs2gPa5sD0
The State tries to hire those who have no niche in the private sector. But, the State is in the process of going broke. The schools were oriented to preparing our children to be good little cogs in the machines. The machines no longer need such an influx of cogs. It also has a lot of old cogs that don't fit in any current machines. 10,000 cogs retire every day to collect SS. That will go on for the next 18 years.

The economic collapse is inevitable. GOV debt is growing faster than exponentially.
What is the fate of the un-necessary cogs?
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