Energetic Forum  
Facebook Twitter Google+ Pinterest LinkedIn Delicious Digg Reddit WordPress StumbleUpon Tumblr Translate Addthis Aaron Murakami YouTube 2020 ENERGY CONFERENCE - PRE-REGISTER NOW!!!!

2020 Energy Science & Technology Conference

Go Back   Energetic Forum > >

General Discussion Other general discussions on topics not listed above.


Thread Tools
Old 07-14-2019, 06:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Fables as far as the eye can see

It was learned long ago that the financial system locks up in a panic. Since everything is bought on margin and credit, everything locks up when confidence is gone. Banks won't risk their capital. The FED produces free capital to buy back confidence. Sure, there is an inflation price to pay but, that is better than a total lockup. The European have long been clamoring for the FED to lower rate and STOP attracting capital. At this point in the credit cycle, capital is looking for safety and stability, not necessarily interest.
NIRP is to be avoided also.
7/14 A third of all European IG bonds have negative yields – Zero Hedge
– Money Show
AKA junk or high risk bonds
7/14 Mid-August is a critical turning point for US stocks – Technical Traders
Maybe yes, maybe no. Has anybody really factored in flight to safety?

7/14 The black hole engulfing the world’s bond markets – Bloomberg
Governments are bankrupt and, can't seem to attract investor money,,, something about confidence.
7/14 10 stocks driving the market to all-time highs (and why) – Nasdaq
And the 50 government agencies buying these stocks.
7/14 How overheated is the stock market? – Upfina
That all depends on how much confidence you have in the regulatory agencies in any given jurisdiction. The more honesty that Trump brings to government, the more people will trust America with their capital. Forget China.
7/14 Worldwide semiconductor equipment sales collapse in 2019 – Zero Hedge
Ah yes, SALES. In all the focus on stocks, we have to remember that companies must actually sell something,,, not just buyback their stocks.

7/14 The Fed could be about to disappoint the market: Wells Fargo – CNBC
Sure thing,, just imagine Powell fronting this idea,,,, and Trump throwing him in prison. Not to mention European leaders arranging a firing squad for him.
7/14 Jay Powell disagrees with Donald Trump on nearly everything – CBS
What about capital punishment?
7/14 Are inverted yield curves signalling a recession or a deflationary boom? – Seeking Alpha
A deflationary boom is what happened to the Hindenburg.

7/14 How to avoid getting burned in bonds if the Fed is ready to inflate – Forbes
7/14 The Fed’s plan: extend & pretend – Upfina

/14 “Where the American dream goes to die”: house prices, rents, and incomes – WS
7/14 Study: home prices wildly exceed incomes – National Mortgage Professional

Not for free-money speculators.
7/14 EU at the crossroads: integration or disintegration – Southfront
Sorry, they no longer have that choice. They were told in the beginning that it would all collapse without a debt union. They figured that they could force a banking union later on. FAR too late for that.

"The stock market is no longer about pricing anticipated future earnings or business profits. It is merely about front running the Fed’s applications of cheap credit"
"Fake money has taken us to this strange and confusing place. By fake money, we mean legal tender that is conjured at will by central planners. Fake money includes the dollar, euro, yen, yuan, pound, peso, loonie, toonie, and practically all other world currencies."
"Going “parabolic” – in a stunning display of collective insanity, the amount of outstanding government debt with negative yields to maturity hits a new record high of $13 trillion in what appears to be an unseemly hurry. Buying debt securities with a negative yield is a trade that relies 100% on the greater fool theory to be profitable. So far there is evidently no shortage of greater fools"

About this collective insanity. Much of it can be attributed to people who actually believe mass media.
95 million Americans of working age NOT in the labor force but, unemployment is only 3.7%
Italy is bankrupt but, it can sell 50 year bonds with a 3% coupon.
Here is a longish article on how we are fooled and programmed.
7/14 Big tech ‘indenture entire populations into servitude’ – Snowden – RT

"People tend to be less satisfied with their own condition if they become aware that others around them are better off"
"Unfortunately for the egalitarians, this isn’t anywhere close to truth. There are many natural differences between individuals that are influenced by genetics. Environment does indeed play a role that can’t be dismissed"
"If Adams is right, the goal should not be a society without an aristocracy, but rather a society with an aristocracy developed through merit rather than corruption. "
Because equality is so contrary to human nature, any philosophy, including libertarianism, would do better to dispense with it. This does not mean we can’t advocate for equality under the law. This is a good thing. But the kind of equality that ignores human nature is doomed to failure.
Reply With Quote

Download SOLAR SECRETS by Peter Lindemann
Free - Get it now: Solar Secrets

Old 07-16-2019, 03:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
A new monetray architecture

Repost; Ellen Brown
"How China’s Mobile Ecosystems Are Making Banks Obsolete
Giant Chinese tech companies have bypassed credit cards and banks to create their own low-cost digital payment systems.
Bloomberg titled “Why China’s Payment Apps Give U.S. Bankers Nightmares”:

The future of consumer payments may not be designed in New York or London but in China. There, money flows mainly through a pair of digital ecosystems that blend social media, commerce and banking—all run by two of the world’s most valuable companies. That contrasts with the U.S., where numerous firms feast on fees from handling and processing payments. Western bankers and credit-card executives who travel to China keep returning with the same anxiety: Payments can happen cheaply and easily without them."
According to John Engen, writing in American Banker in May 2018, China processed a whopping $12.8 trillion in mobile payments in the first ten months of 2017. Today even China’s street merchants don’t want cash.

Moving on;
Central banker to the world – Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World
This article is about how the FED is pushing liquidity to the whole world, MOSTLY, the West

"In the period between 2000 and 2017, the obligations of foreign debtors to China increased from less than $500 billion to more than $5 trillion—or from around one percent of global economic output to more than six percent.
The majority of debt claims were acquired in international bond markets by China’s state-owned central bank."
"Research has shown that Chinese state banks issued around a quarter of total bank lending to emerging markets, propelling China into the leading global position as official creditor, leaving behind the IMF and World Bank."
"However, some 50 percent of China's international lending to developing and emerging countries bypasses official statistics, remaining unrecorded by the IMF, Paris Club, rating agencies or private data providers.

For the 50 top recipients of Chinese loans, who are predominantly smaller or poorer countries, debt to China grew from around one percent of their GDP in 2005 to over 15 percent of GDP in 2016."
Gee wiz, I hope that they don't default.
"The scope and lack of transparency of China’s lending, however, poses a challenge for debtor countries and international financial markets, leaving the country's risk analysis in the dark, the report stated."
RISK, we don't need no stinkin risk.
Remember, a lot of these loans are not in cash. They are loans to allow these countries to pay for Chinese goods and services. And, then WHAT?
Warning sounded over China's 'debtbook diplomacy' | World news ...
May 15, 2018 - Academics identify 16 countries loaned billions that they can't afford to repay."

China, of course, plans to take over their infrastructure.

"American consumers and firms were able to enjoy and consume more than $500 billion worth of goods produced by the Chinese last year, while consumers and firms in China enjoyed and consumed a much, much lower valued amount of goods produced by Americans – only $130.4 billion. So if you simply answered the question: Which countries’ citizens ended up with the greatest amount of goods on net last year – China or the US? — the obvious answer would be the US. It was America’s good fortune to benefit from a YUGE “goods surplus” last year of $375 billion (see chart above), while China experienced a $375 billion “goods deficit.” And if anybody “lost” last year in trade, wouldn’t it, therefore, be China, which suffered from a net loss of merchandise totaling $375 billion?"
If anybody is 'losing' on trade, it's China. We got $505B of its goods and only gave up $130B = a $375B 'goods surplus' - AEI

7/15 China posts its lowest quarterly growth in 27 years as the trade war drags on – CNBC
7/15 America is insolvent, broke, deep into the red – Fosters

Maybe so, but we're better looking than China.
7/15 China struggles add to emerging-market risks as rate cuts beckon – Bloomberg
China struggles because nobody plans to repay it.

BTC just has too many problems.
"That power comes from annual electricity consumption worth around $7.5 billion. Furthermore, the cost of preserving mining rigs brings the total yearly spendings to operate the Bitcoin blockchain to about $10 billion –"
BTC and some crypto just have to much loss due to theft,
UK Finance Chief Ready to Engage with ‘Potentially Transformative’ Libra
The CBs want to kill it or, control it.

The State wants to take over crypto so, they don't want big tech to do it.

7/15 Modern Monetary Theory is fact, and market rigging is its consequence – GATA
""The necessity for a government to tax in order to maintain both its independence and its solvency is true for state and local governments, but it is not true for a national government. Two changes of the greatest consequence have occurred in the last 25 years which have substantially altered the position of the national state with respect to the financing of its current requirements.

"The first of these changes is the gaining of vast new experience in the management of central banks.
"The second change is the elimination, for domestic purposes, of the convertibility of the currency into gold."
""Final freedom from the domestic money market exists for every sovereign national state where there exists an institution which functions in the manner of a modern central bank and whose currency is not convertible into gold or into some other commodity."
Yes, but that would eliminate the bankers
"MMT does not claim that the government should create and deploy infinite money. It claims that money can be created and deployed as much as is necessary to improve general living conditions and eliminate unemployment until the currency begins to lose value."
Do you see it.? AS NECESSARY. Wars are a definite necessity.
The article is worth reading.

So, the battle is joined. The SDR is an early casualty. Same for the Euro. The Yuan can't survive the worldwide defaults against it's State banks.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2019, 03:55 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Yes, the markets have turned

7/15 Groping for new tools, central banks look at Japan’s yield controls – Reuters
There has been a LOT of groping going on.
7/15 India lender shares hit six-year low as lending grinds to a halt – Bloomberg
There has been a lot of grinding going on also.
7/15 “It’s time to say goodbye to the rally in everything” – Zero Hedge
I don't remember wages rallying.
Red pill----Blue pill
You should of bought gold.

Armstrong, "President Donald Trump jumped at the opportunity to use the numbers to his advantage tweeting: “China’s 2nd Quarter growth is the slowest it has been in more than 27 years. The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal….”"
That is exactly Trump will stall until the cows starve. China figured that nobody could do anything about intellectual property theft.

Armstrong, "

There have been many people who fear the forecasts of the Bible’s Revelations and the sign of the Beast that no one will be able to buy or sell without receiving “a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name” (Revelation 13:16-17). Now you would think that someone would be concerned about mimicking that forecast. That does not seem to stop the trend to implant chips in your right hand which is your debt/credit card on a chip about the size of a grain of rice. All you do is wave your hand and you just paid for everything.

Of course, there is a slight problem. The powers that be know who your are, where you are, and you have surrendered all privacy. Perhaps there is no stopping this trend. The governments are in such desperate need of taxation and Quantitative Easing has failed because they argue people withdrew their case from the banks. They have ended bailouts in Europe and the future head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, is a champion of eliminating money and believes that each country should create their own cryptocurrency and all freedom will come to an end.

This very idea of implanting chips into your hand and eliminating all physical money is a dream come true. I believe it will become one proposal on the table in 2021-2022. Our computer which show major confrontations arising into 2032 which will also involve religion, certainly seems plausible after 4,000 people have accepted chips in Sweden who think this is cool."
Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2019, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Greed changhing to fear,,,,China, GOOD reason to hold fear

Much of the economy is "maintained" by confidence & fear. Fear of missing out,,,, fear of losing everything. Even though the various agencies are still pumping money into the markets, that doesn't help earnings in equities. The stock buybacks made EPS, earnings per share look much better that reality. The dire fact of the arrival of the global-mean-wage is always overshadowing everything. So, the stock market can continue to rise but, true earnings can not. This had brought a deflation of confidence.

7/16 China in worse shape than reports suggest – Rick’s Picks
They've always added a few % points to their growth.
7/15 China POSTS its lowest quarterly growth in 27 years as the trade war drags on – CNBC
If this is what they POSTED, you can bet that reality is much worse. By lending Y trillions worldwide, they hoped to develop world markets.
7/16 Japan’s old age colony: a demographic/fiscal death trap – Zero Hedge
7/16 SoCal cities are spending big instead of preparing for next downturn – Pasadena Star
86 million American consumers fear maxing out a credit card: Report

Everybody is charging full speed ahead using unsecured credit.

7/16 Global debt now totals $246.5 trillion after unprecedented borrowing binge – Axios
I don't think that "binge" is the right word.
7/16 Criminal gang abducts and tortures crypto traders, demands massive ransome – NW
7/16 Will Facebook and Telegram kill bitcoin and ethereum? – Hacker Noon

A good article on the "race to the bottom"
Keep in mind that a currency war is a method to export unemployment. BUT, it reduces purchasing power for the man in the street. There is less consumption and, things slow down anyway.

7/16 California is producing too much solar energy – that’s not a good thing – USA Herald
7/16 Solar Foods makes protein out of thin air – Food Navigator

Nuke and Carbon are $hitting bricks as they get squeezed out.
HMS Queen Elizabeth: Water leak on aircraft carrier 'neck-high' - BBC ...
7/16 UK says sending second warship to Gulf – AFP

7/16 Bitcoin prices off 8% as Mnuchin says Treasury will ratchet up crypto regulation – MW
Even the NSA was hacked. What makes people think that crypto will ever be safe?

"How does Democratic Socialism differ from just “Socialism”?

It has the word “Democratic” in front of it, you see, which means it is achieved by promoting identity politics, stoking class warfare, and cranking that entitlement mentality up to 11, instead of literal violent overthrow of the government. Besides, voting for the government to seize people’s wealth is totally different from the government deciding to do so on their own, right? Err… uh… DID WE MENTION YOU GET FREE STUFF?? Say it with us: Socialism good, Democratic Socialism better!"

"The white nationalists, only numbering in the low 20’s, were eliminated almost immediately. Still hungry for the blood, the leftist groups turned on each other, even attacking members of their own organizations."

The markets HAVE rolled over and turned down. This site has some good graphs to give you a feel for just where we are.

John Hussman, "While investors appear exuberant about the prospect for Fed easing, they seem largely unaware that initial Fed easings have almost invariably been associated with U.S. recessions. They’re running toward the fire."
"Similarly, our “Exit Rule for Bubbles” is straightforward: You only get out if you panic before everyone else does. You have to decide whether to look like an idiot before the crash, or look like an idiot after it. "
It's a pretty good article but< I don't believe that John is taking foreign capital inflows. As the mood changes from "chasing interest" to "protecting capital" the investment fundamentals change.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2019, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
D Bank,,,January 2020 turning point,, C.H. Smith

The market capitalization of Deutsche bank is currently $16 billion. Here is a graph of their stock price.
"Apr 17, 2019 - A derivatives book of $49 trillion notional puts Deutsche Bank"
7/16 Bank run: Deutsche Bank clients are pulling $1 billion a day – Zero Hedge
Those derivatives are with other banks all over the world.
7/16 Bleak German mood weighs on Europe, Brexit pummels pound – Reuters No kidding ?

7/16 European bank stress test a sham, European Court of Auditors warns – Wolf Street
7/16 China’s first-half fiscal spending up as Beijing supports economy – CNBC
7/16 China’s debt ratio is growing as its economy loses steam – Bloomberg

Ride that tiger 1
7/16 China’s first-half fiscal spending up as Beijing supports economy – CNBC
7/16 China’s debt ratio is growing as its economy loses steam – Bloomberg
Your day will come eventually.

7/16 “Transportation recession” gets uglier – Wolf Street
7/16 Trucking bloodbath: 2,500 truck drivers lose jobs – Mish

7/16 Trump: ‘will take a look’ into Google working with China – CNBC

Alphabet had to be abysmally stupid to attack the entity that has final control over the airwaves.

Armstrong; ANSWER: This turning point in the ECM on January 2020 appears to be the turn in public confidence on a global scale. Much of what I write about from false flags to civil asset forfeitures are all issues that are blending together in undermining the confidence in governments. This next wave should be inflationary. That also means we should be in a position where people lose confidence in government, but the central banks are trapped and the pros are starting to see that as well. With Lagarde replacing Draghi, we will see a shift in confidence in Europe as a whole as well."
Draghi was shooting blanks. LaGarde will do worse. European capital flight will increase
The inflation that Armstrong is talking about will hit essentials. The people will be in the streets en masse.

Armstrong, "Every single war we have entered from World War I to Vietnam and the invasion of Iraq has all been predicated upon false flags. President Johnson commented privately: “For all I know, our Navy was shooting at whales out there.” Or how about the declassified Operation Northwoods memorandum March 13, 1962, where they proposed killing Americans to justify invading Cuba.

Despite the mountain of evidence, the press endorses war, often instigates it, and then pretends they knew nothing."

VERY good article from Charles Hugh Smith;
" This globalist ideology led to a variety of policy disasters and is now discredited in many circles, and has been under attack within the Deep State for some time. This is the divided Deep State I've written about for the past five years.
Is the Deep State Fracturing into Disunity? (March 14, 2014)
Is the Deep State at War--With Itself? (December 14, 2016)
The failures of Neocon globalism have ushered in another critical juncture.What is America's proper role in a multi-polar world that is fracturing across multiple faultlines? This critical juncture is a manifestation of a broader profound political disunity in America and many other nations.
The corporate media has obligingly portrayed this profound political disunity as a contest between "good globalism" and "bad populism," a clear attempt to smear all those who see the dark side of globalism as a threat to the nation and indeed the world. This bias reflects the continued dominance of the Neocon-globalist camp."

" But the cracks are now visible. The mainstream "influential" press has recently been publishing critiques admitting the failures of Neocon globalism and agonizing about how to "save" the globalist agenda despite its failures.
Globalization’s Wrong Turn--And How It Hurt America (Foreign Affairs)
I have long held that there is a camp within the Deep State that grasps the end-game of Neocon globalism, and is busy assembling a competing nation-centric strategy. There is tremendous resistance to the abandonment of Neocon globalism, not just from those who see power slipping through their fingers but from all those firmly committed to the hubris of a magical faith in past success as the guarantor of future success."

"America's current path of moral decay and soaring wealth/power inequality is tracking Rome's collapse step for step.
Enter the sordid case of Jeffrey Epstein, suddenly unearthed after a decade of corporate-media/elitist suppression. It's laughable to see the corporate media's pathetic attempts to glom onto the case now, after actively suppressing it for decades:Jeffrey Epstein Was a Sex Offender. The Powerful Welcomed Him Anyway. (New York Times) Where was the NYT a decade ago, or five years ago, or even a year ago?"
The hidden conflicts within the Deep State are emerging, and the resulting crisis will be explosive. Remember, the housecleaning must be public or the legitimacy of the state will go over the cliff. If the Deep State wants to retain its power, it must root out the corrupt degenerates before they bring down the entire rotten structure."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Epstein and the Explosive Crisis of the Deep State

7/16 U.S. retail sales increase solidly in boost to economy – Yahoo
7/16 US industrial production unchanged in June – AP

"Freight shipments in the US across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – fell 5.3% in June compared to June last year, after having fallen 6.0% in May, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. "

The jink bond market normally commands <15%> interest. Junk bonds now are entering ZIRP territory.
"As for why that’s bad, well, let’s count the ways. First, it funnels cheap capital into companies that by definition don’t deserve it, which results in “malinvestment” on a vast scale. Second, it starves pension funds and retirees that need income, forcing them to take on ever-higher degrees of risk. Combine massive misallocation of capital with excessive risk-taking by investors who don’t understand risk, and the result is an epic crash when junk borrower cash flows inevitably disappoint. "
"cheap capital into companies that by definition don’t deserve it,"
12% of companies worldwide are zombies. Imagine the unemployment rate if the zombies were allowed to die.

Global Debt Hits $246 Trillion, 320% Of GDP As Developing Debt Hits All Time HIgh
Much of that "developiong debt" is owed to China by countries that can't pay.

Last edited by Danny B; 07-17-2019 at 01:45 PM. Reason: $pelling
Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2019, 02:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Important notes from Armstrong

I'm sure that all of you know that "socrates" is the name of the program that Armstrong and his undergrads built decades ago. I won't go into the details of it's history and, capabilities. Armstrong seems to schedule his world economic conferences right at big turning points. Armstrong said that January 2020 would be a huge turning point. Previously, he said to have 1 month worth of bill-paying money and, 1 weeks worth of food. He can NOT possible be specific about what is going to be the focal point of the January change. He would immediately be accused of causing it. He ALREADY has been so accused and sent to prison by the NYC banks who accused him of controlling the economy.

Copy & paste is a tool that tempts people to be extremely long winded. I try to keep this under control.
Armstrong; "Meanwhile, we face the biggest Bond Bubble in the history of civilization and the last time something like that took place, it did not end very nicely for civilization
We are looking at such an important shift this time in the Business Cycle that those attending the WEC this year will also receive ongoing video updates as needed because things are not going to be just a walk in the park. The fact that the Dow has exceeded the 2018 high already, warns that the pattern we face is going to be plagued with a political crisis.
We have so many markets at critical junctures as we head into the ECM turning point, this year’s WEC is going to be a critical forecasting event. Most importantly, we have to face not just a Monetary Crisis Cycle which is becoming obvious to everyone as the British pound takes a nosedive, but everything from Energy to Agriculture is in the staging ground for the next ECM along with precious metals.
Central Banks (some who have been attending the WEC), are now beginning to lobby the fiscal side trying to warn them of impending doom and how they CANNOT possibly prop-up the world economy this time around.

Because all of these things are coming together, the attendees of this year’s Orlando WEC will receive ongoing video updates because this is just such a widespread crisis that is impacting every possible corner of the global economy and the ONLY way to survive this is going to be with Socrates because there is ABSOLUTELY no precedent to which we can refer to in history.
There are people calling now for the greatest crash in history, and others are now starting to claim the Dow will test 30,000. The opinions ARE just not going to cut it in this environment. So this year’s WEC will be different, but very critical. So are we Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door or the Big Fake Out as we face the Monetary Crisis Cycle and probably the most polarized political election ever in 2020. So those attending will get ongoing updates as necessary since this is probably the most critical period we face in modern economic-political history.
Ongoing updates seems to imply the economy will be whipsawed violently.

Armstrong asks a rhetorical question. The answer is YES

Armstrong on GOV pension debt.

"Our confidential sources are reporting that the Fed, ECB, and BoJ have agreed to lobby politicians in an attempt to warn them that they cannot continue propping up the world economy. The ECB, in particular, has been keeping the EU on life support and they have no room to lower interest rates to try to support their economies any longer. They are beginning to argue that they need help from governments in the rescue effort, which our computer model warns will fail."
"The slowing global economic growth has pushed the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and perhaps even the Bank of Japan to look at more Quantitative Easing. However, the Fed, especially, wants no part of buying government debt."
WAIT, what about the re-election?
"The cries behind the curtain are that monetary policy alone in the coming months cannot support the economy. There is just less room to act with regard to interest rates than in the past. This has been the pitch in Brussels as the ECB is warning politicians they will need to assist if a downturn takes hold."
How does a politician "assist"?
Austerity in Britain has reduced the London police force by 20,000.
Will politicians implement more austerity?
Reply With Quote
Old 07-17-2019, 02:41 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
How much of the corruption will be rooted out before the crash?

Kunstler, "What the nation doesn’t get is that the shale oil industry is sure to collapse, and at least as rapidly as it shot up. So, expect the stock markets to collapse with it, along with tremendous collateral damage to all the other instruments that represent “money” — bonds, currencies, and their derivatives. It will make the 2008 episode look like a mere overturned poker table when it happens. "
" We’re faced with the imminent and rather drastic re-organization of everyday life in America without oil. It should be reasonable to assume that the process will be disorderly, and the longer we ignore it, the more disorderly it will be. Granted, it is a tall order for politicians to talk about things this scary. The hard truth is that intelligent responses to this quandary would require heroic effort and painful change — and would probably be emotionally unacceptable to voters. It would entail the dismantling of suburbia and all of the activities associated with it, a severe shrinking of government at every level, the abandonment of most of our military playthings and overseas commitments"

Kunstler equates the end of peak-cheap-oil in America to the end of peak-cheap-oil. The world has lots of cheap oil. We will just have to pay more for it. Price inflation will follow a rise in the price of energy, the master resource. We can just BUY the damn oil from Venezuela instead of trying to use the CIA and military to try to install U.S. oil companies in control of the country. Screw Cheney and his cronies.

Israel has long worked to try to gain control of the world. They over-reached and, blew up their bond market in the early '80s. I was there when they knocked 3 zeros off the Shekel. This didn't stop them. They bought all the American politicians that they could reach. Wolfowitz personified the jewish neocon mentality. Full control of the world by any means. Well, now, the U.S. bond market has been blow up. I was told by israelis that israel is a communist country. Dunno. Communism always goes broke. America has supported israel to the tune of hundreds of $billions. Now, we are broke .

Repost, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Epstein and the Explosive Crisis of the Deep State
There is a growing appreciation that the neocon faction of the deep state has brought us to ruin. MUCH of the battle against the deep state is between fractions within. Trump made a big mistake in NOT cleaning out ALL the Obummer appointees. He had no idea of just how entrenched the israeli / communistic faction was in the intelligence agencies. The NSA, being more of a military arm was not near so corrupted.

It remains to be seen just how much of the corruption can be cleaned out by following up on the Epstein / MOSSAD honey trap web.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2019, 02:23 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Paradigm shifts by Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is called the bond king. He runs the largest bond fund in the world. He recently had a program created to do bond trading with machine intelligence exclusively. The humans are there just to ensure that the computers receive accurate information. He has the experience AND the liberty of free time to investigate the past as far as economic cycles go.
Like Armstrong, he sees that this economic history runs in cycles. The economy morphs from one paradigm to a new paradigm. Here is a very good article that you should read.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-18-2019, 03:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
The bumps in the road are getting bigger

Ray Dalio is calling for a paradigm shift. They happen quite frequently so, it is easy to believe that he is correct. The American PTB want to keep things going exactly as they are. Every time that the paradigm threatens to shift, the FED throws money at the markets to try to preserve the status quo. This holds things together temporarily but, creates enormous distortions.
Turkey is a member of NATO but, just bought highly advanced Russian weapons in case they are attacked. There are numerous distortions in every corner of the world.
Armstrong is calling for a total crash of sovereign debt and, a rotation into private debt. He is calling for the DOW to hit 35,000 by 2021.
The confidence and mentality have shifted to where investors are little concerned with earning interest on their capital. They are mostly worried about retaining the purchasing value of their capital.
As various sovereign governments try increasingly stupid moves to corral capital inside their borders, investors find increasingly innovative ways to get it OUT of the borders.
Remember that the stock indices are quoted on the performance of a small basket of stocks. The indices could easily hit historical highs and, the broader market could be in the dumps.
Stocks to buy: Just 10 stocks are holding the fort; rest have lost

Crypto currencies are working very well for draining capital OUT of regimes that are too controlling or too socialist.
Much of the unipolar world was enforced by CENTCOM and the FED. This is slipping away.
Venezuela may switch from SWIFT to Russian payment system to skirt US sanctions
Venezuela Sells $40 million in Gold Reserves Despite US Efforts to Prevent It

Mossad-linked group seeks seizure of Iranian oil tanker OH ! What a surprise. We need more wars.
IDF Practices Invading Gaza Just Days After Hamas Drills for Israeli Invasion Go ahead,,, do it!
The junk bond bubble, https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EaueKaY2sMLBQ/
7/18 “We’re never going to go away from zero:” Kyle Bass’ latest trade – ZH
Keynes wanted "euthanasia of the rentier". With MMT, the State could create all the liquidity needed in the economy, interest free. I just don't see that happening. It would allow unlimited war finance.

"Proponents of the gold standard argue it provides long-term economic stability and growth, prevents inflation, and would reduce the size of government. They say a gold standard would restrict the ability of government to print money at will, run up large deficits, and increase the national debt. They say the economy has historically performed best under a gold standard. "

7/18 IMF endorses dollar devaluation – GATA It is strictly up to the markets. GOV can legislate against capital flight but, it doesn't make any difference. Armstrong said that; if the dollar continues to rise, it will choke all other currencies.
7/18 Ray Dalio says gold will be top investment – CNBC
7/18 Double top in transportation and metals breakout are key topping signals – TT. There is NO doubt that markets have topped.
7/18 Europe dove into negative rates and now can’t find a way out – GATA
Ah yes, unlimited socialism for unlimited garbage immigrants gets expensive.
World government requires absolute control. The societies with the most racial continuity are the most stable societies. Look at the French / yellow vests. They have racial solidarity. The PTB who champion a new world order do NOT want any kind of solidarity. Flood the place with the worst kine of immigrants and, Voila ! , you destroy any kind of solidarity and resistance to control.

Qatar has sent arms right up to air-to-air missiles to dissidents in Europe to really get a revolution going.
Armstrong, "When I look at lending into the agricultural sector, the big Wall Street banks are once again perfectly in line with the cycle. They peaked in loans to farmers back in 2015, and have been declining ever since going into 2020. Bank lending to the agricultural sector peaked with the ECM and we will see it bottom in 2020. Our model will be correct in forecasting the next wave, which will be a cost-push inflationary wave. "
GREAT, food price inflation.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-19-2019, 03:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
The down side of globalism

Well, "they" wanted global communication, global capital transfer, global financial integration,,, EVERYTHING 'harmonized. The advent of containerized shipping created and enforced a global mean wage. Consumption has crashed as global currency inflation created price inflation. All the various instruments relied on tapping into the productive economy. This parasitism depends on a robust production-consumption cycle. It also depends on the participants earning a "living wage". You can very well tax Americans who are living on 8 bucks an hour. The CBs rode to the rescue of the banking system,,,, at the point of a State knife held against their collective backs. They are now screaming that IT ISN'T WORKING. The faltering economy just won't support this level of parasitism. The State has no plan or intention of scaling back it's spending.

Armstrong; " A lot of people have written in about my comments concerning how the world is completely in a state of global chaos which is why this year I will be providing a continued video update for the 2019 WEC attendees."
OK, continued video update. This tells you that volatility will be off the charts.
Continued, "Those looking at the arrays of many markets are also starting to notice how global markets are correlating on a worldwide basis. Never before have I witnessed such mass correlation around the world which is demonstrating that this is by no means about local issues or the rise and fall of GDP, interest rates, or inflation. We are facing a VERY serious crisis and this is part of the Monetary Crisis Cycle"

"Attendees of Orlando will receive a special report on the Monetary Crisis Cycle outlining the timing and what we should expect as the years unfold. It is clear that our computer is picking upo this great convergence never before witnessed in financial history. This year’s WEC we will be covering the world to reveal just how we are all connected and how to keep track of this insanity that we are going to embark upon.
This is clearly the sum of all our economic fears."
Well, maybe absolute centralization isn't such a good idea after all.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, in relating your comments on weather and how the winters will spike to record cold and then the summers will spike to record highs, is this the same as a panic cycle in markets?


ANSWER: Yes. Our computer looks at the weather the same as it does with the price in a market. Patterns emerge and you can understand the causes ONLY by correlating the trends with everything else. This is indeed a Panic Cycle where we exceed the previous high and penetrate the previous low. This coming weekend will see temperatures break 100 in the Northeast. I have lived in New Jersey and there were plenty of summers where we have days at 103. This is NOT abnormal. What is abnormal is the volatility how we can go from a winter where it was colder in Chicago than it was in Antarctica and then we break the record highs in July. It is the VOLATILITY – not the empirical level of temperature we should be paying attention to.

7/19 Gang of masked men raid bitcoin exchange in Birmingham – Coin Telegraph
7/19 Gold wins in a currency war – Deutsche Bank – Kitco
Even DB knows that gold is important.
7/18 Philly Fed’s regional business index hits one-year high – Investing
7/18 U.S. leading economic index posts biggest drop since 2016 – MarketWatch
Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2019, 02:46 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
What's next for public debt?

Armstrong claims that a historical view shows that capital moves alternately from private debt to public debt. He said that the rotation out of public debt (sovereign bonds) would lead to an abandonment of all public debt. The 200 PHDs working for the FED, not to mention the huger numbers of FED-sponsored chairs at various universities may have come to the same conclusion. EVERYONE reads Armstrong.

The various Central Banks have been buying up private equity for years. The BOJ owns 1/2 of all exchange traded funds . The BOJ is also buying up Japanese government debt by the trillions. Presumably, the CBs expect the State to default on public debt.
The ECB is buying up public debt just as fast as the EU members can issue it. If Draghi doesn't buy it up, nobody will. Armstrong claims that the ECB has destroyed the European sovereign bind market. In a ZIRP environment, the CBs can issue new bonds, receive the principle and, ignore the interest burden. First, of course, they had to create mega tons of liquidity so that somebody would have the cash to buy the bonds. It didn't work out that way and their bonds were shunned by the private debt markets.
Meanwhile, the FED is able to sell U.S. public debt through shells and proxies. While public debt in America sees more demand than public debt in the Eurozone, it is still far short of being fully subscribed by legitimate buyers.

This is a big confidence game that America is currently winning. Money renters seem to ignore bogus employment numbers. They mostly ignore crashing productivity numbers.
They look at the abysmal lies and numbers that come out of the shotgun marriage that is the European Union.
They look at the draconian control that the Chinese are laying down on a nation of gamblers.
They have decided that American private markets carry the best possibility of investor safety.

The State, being a non-producer, has always had to rely on taxes and theft to fund itself. The Central Bank was invented to fund wars and, manage the finances of the State. To smooth out finances, the State started selling bonds,,, usually war bonds. Later, the CBs sold all kinds of bonds. Still, the State had to ultimately rely on taxes to repay bonds. The State had to rely on private investors to buy it's bonds. Historically, the State has used currency inflation to alleviate the burden of repaying GOV bonds. This inflation has historically removed up to 50% of the burden of repayment. The State is always trying to inflate away the burden of debt repayment. Meanwhile, the banks are first in line when the new money is passed out. The bankers lose value on the bonds they hold because of State sponsored currency inflation. They gain value on their bonds because they are first in line for money.

When the State talks about printing free money directly to pay it's bills (some form of MMT or chartalism), the banks are squeezed out of the public bond market.
It is a safe assumption that public debt is going to crash. It ALWAYS does.
It is a safe assumption that the State is going to try to survive intact.

The whole Central Bank experiment / regime lasted for a few hundred years. It's gone crazy of late.

Japan has printed "money" by the boatload but, still retains a certain amount of investor confidence.
Will America print money by the boatload to get away from the restriction of having to depend on PRIVATE money to fund it's spending?
Armstrong claims that; in the future, private debt will have one interest rate AND, public debt will have another, higher interest rate. This is an impossibility.
One way or another, FED GOV is going to escape the monetary control of private money.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2019, 09:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Choke out the American war machine

Armstrong advocates that FED GOV just print money to cover it's bills. This would presumably include money for ongoing wars. Americans lost control of the war machine long ago. The '60s were the time of war protests. Several protestors died for their beliefs. The rest were called traitors. They were accused of naming the soldiers as murderers. In reality, it was the politicians who were the murderers.
After WW II, we could have had peace. The war profiteers would have none of it. After the collapse of the U.S.S.R. we could have had peace. Once again, the war profiteers blocked this possibility. An endless chain of false flags inspired / motivated an endless chain of wars.

"The Samson Option (Hebrew: ברירת שמשון) is the name that some military analysts and authors have given to Israel's deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons",,, against any State that didn't do as it was told.
"Kenneth S. Brower has estimated as many as 400 nuclear weapons.[12] "
Lest you think that israel would never go to the actual detonation of a nuke, keep in mind that they exploded nukes in the reactor building at Fukushima Diachi. They were disguised as huge cameras that the israelis had previously installed. They were detonated exactly one year after the Japanese approved a resolution condemning israeli actions in Gaza.
The israelis have come out and said that their weapons would reach as far as Europe. It is impossible for Europe to invade israel so, they must be there for coercion.

The IAEA said that somebody set off a nuclear device in Yemen.
A neutron bomb was detonated at Baghdad Airport in 2003, page 1 ...
A neutron bomb was detonated at Baghdad Airport in 2003, page 1

Mar 8, 1992 - Mr. Wolfowitz often represents the Pentagon on the Deputies Committee, which formulates policy in an interagency process dominated by the ...

Putin Has Just Put An End to the Wolfowitz Doctrine | Zero Hedge ...
Oct 6, 2015 - In 1991, [powerful neocon and Iraq war architect Paul Wolfowitz] was the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy – the number 3 position at the ...

The neocons along with Wolfowitz planned to continue world domination by force of arms and also, the FED. This was an extension of the israeli plan to blow up any State that didn't like israeli control of the world.
Tom Bearden said that israel had hidden bombs in many cities around the world.

The American military-industrial-banking complex services the defense industry on a profit basis. They have bankrupted the nation paying for shoddy weapons. The Russian defense industry is an arm of the government and NOT a for-profit industry. We outspend everybody to produce planes that won't fly and aircraft carriers that have to be towed back to port.
As a for-profit industry, American armament industries were motivated to sell as many weapons as possible. This created a situation where it made perfect corporate sense to start as many wars as possible.

Despite Coverup, Israel Caught Spying in Washington Again - WRMEA
Report: Israel Passes U.S. Military Technology to China | Military.com
Did Israel steal bomb-grade uranium from the United States? - Bulletin ...
Israel spies on U.S. more than any other ally – Mondoweiss

isreal is making a buck on the side.

Moving forward. How can the world stop the American / israeli war machine that plans to subjugate the world?
Our energy imports are our weak point.
" US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says foreign nations (Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba) must stay clear of Venezuela, so that the one foreign nation not on the list “can begin to do the work to rebuild that country.”
America fracking oil is weak and watery. It is exported because there is very little demand. American fracking has lost $280 billion. The oil majors are salivating at the thought of controlling . stealing Venezuelan oil. They are also salivating at the idea of Stealing Iranian oil but Iran is just too well armed. The Golan Heights have as much oil as Saudi Arabia but, Assad and Putin have made it off-limits. (Armstrong).

Bolton can blow smoke until his moustache catches fire . Russia and China and Iran need to choke-out the American war machine. I wish them success. I don't want to live in a country that counts 300 million murders as a roaring success story. Where the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children was deemed "worth it" Where depleted uranium is spread far and wide. Where the radioactive death of the Pacific ocean is just collateral damage. Where the U.S. military is used to protect the cultivation of Heroin and cocaine.

Where Ron Paul is celebrated as an honest politician,,,, implying that an honest politician is an aberration.
Where our whole national angst is destroyed by all the killing.

I expect petroleum shortage to develop after the January 2020 crash.

Last edited by Danny B; 07-22-2019 at 03:13 AM. Reason: Ooops
Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2019, 04:03 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Just more problems

While the bankers are gnashing their teeth trying to grow the credit bubble at the same time that Population, wages and consumption are all shrinking, There are other forces trying to shrink the population to avoid trashing the planet any further.
Charles Hugh Smith, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Planetary Insanity of Eternal Economic Growth

Here is an article with Martin Armstrong playing stupid.
QUESTION: Do you think the neo-cons who pushed the Iraq War and are pushing to annihilate Iran now, are covertly in league with Israel?"
"Yes, people speculate that the Israel government is covertly behind the neo-cons, whereas many Israeli people just want peace. I have not seen any direct evidence of that. I do know some of these neo-cons and have had face to face discussions with them over the years. I believe they are seriously wrong and have placed the world into a state of high risk. Their policies have polarized the relationships between the USA and Russia, which is not in the interest of world peace. I have stated many times, my view is simply that war no longer remains valid from a historical perspective. It used to be about conquest and empire-building. Today, nobody wants to occupy their opponent. I see no purpose to war economically"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...e-with-israel/ Not ONE mention of wars for ideology, resources and oil. The Golan also has LOTS of water, besides the oil.
Not ONE mention of Sunni - Shia wars for religion and ideology.
The NSA Gave Israel Access to All US Citizens Communications Data, Leaked Docs Reveal
7/19 Israeli malware can spy on Apple, Google and other cloud data – CNBC

" But the number of US factor jobs held pretty constant around 17 million — until around 2000, when, over the next decade, almost 6 million such jobs were lost. Economists who’ve studied the period now refer to it as “the China Shock.”
"What economists have gotten wrong for decades
Four economic ideas disproven by reality.

The FED is just about out of bullets when it comes to fighting the looming recession.
The Fed's Final Bullet Hits 'Em in the Foot - The Great Recession Blog
October 1929 is a preview of what is happening now.
Armstrong predicts extreme volatility. some think that they can take advantage of this volatility.

"But here’s the rub. The Brexit Party polling just behind Tories, who have rallied behind Boris Johnson to stabilize their poll numbers. Johnson has to keep talking No-Deal Brexit or the knives come out for him."
Yep, flogging a dead horse.
The MIC wants more money, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...our-government
Trump is still working to piss off as many powerful people as possible.
Peak Prosperity, https://www.peakprosperity.com/weve-...d-of-the-road/

The Epstein case could be a wild card for the economy.
Google exposes itself as pro-pedo & pro-child abuse by opposing sex trafficking laws To protect children
So, big surprise,,, Tel Aviv is the world center for human trafficking. israel is a major center of organs for sale.

How Bolton lured Britain into a dangerous trap to punish Iran
NATO Urges Iran to Release UK-Flagged Ships Seized by IRGC
British Warship Tried to Stop Iran From Seizing UK-Flagged Tanker in Hormuz Strait - IRGC
The Royal Navy: From Piracy to Impotence

A Bank With 49 Trillion Dollars In ExposureTo Derivatives Is Melting Down Right In Front Of Our Eyes
Yeak, Deutsche bank is going to take down a LOT of other banks when it defaults on it's derivatives.That January 2020 crash date is probably when the banks close.
Israel's Three Largest Banks Pay Hundreds Of Millions In Fines For Helping US Citizens Evade Taxes

Recession, http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/d...-of-recession/
7/20 BOJ’s Kuroda says he disagrees with Modern Monetary Theory – Reuters
Spoken by the original Mr. printing press.
7/21 Illinois home values down 21%, property taxes up 9% since 2007 – Illinois Policy
Could there be a connection?
Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2019, 02:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Wall Street on parade

A Citizen's guide to Wall street

Recent Posts

Jeffrey Epstein Chaired a $6.7 Billion Company that Documents Suggest May Have Received a Secret Federal Reserve Bailout

Senator Compares Facebook’s Libra Association to Spectre in James Bond Movie

Is There a Stealth Financial Crisis? Alarm Bells Are Ringing.

With Three Felony Counts Already, Did JPMorgan Chase Really Need to Own a Ship Containing 20 Tons of Cocaine?

Following Deutsche Bank’s News, Every Major Wall Street Bank Closed in the Red Yesterday

This Will Make You Rethink All that Talk about the Stock Market’s New Highs

Meet the JPMorgan Whale that Ate Deutsche Bank’s Stock Trading Business

The Fed and Wall Street Have their Worry Beads Out Over Deutsche Bank’s “Bad Bank” Idea

Paul Weiss, the Law Firm that Has Represented Citigroup through Serial Fraud Charges, Is the Number One Donor to Democratic Presidential Hopeful Kamala Harris

Economist Nouriel Roubini Compares Crypto Coin Market to “Cocaine’s Drug Pushers”

Reimagining the Structure of Wall Street in the National Interest

Wall Street Banks, In Drag as Trade Associations, Fight Indictments for Manipulating Precious Metals Markets

The Wolves Have Turned on Each Other on Wall Street

Today’s Wall Street Has All the Hallmarks of Tulip Mania

OCC Report: JPMorgan Chase and Citibank Control 76 Percent of all Precious Metals Contracts at 5,362 Federally-Insured Banks

House Financial Chair Tells Facebook to Halt Plans for Cryptocurrency

There’s a Critical National Interest in Cleaning Up the Corrupt Stock Market Structure

These Charts Suggest the Whole Wall Street Casino Has Become Taxpayer-Backstopped and Too-Big-to-Fail

Exclusive: There’s a Shake-Up Happening in Wall Street’s Dark Pools

Could JPMorgan Chase Be Hit with a Fourth Felony Count for Rigging Precious Metals Markets?

Public Interest Groups Blast SEC for Shilling for Wall Street’s “Best Interest”

Mnuchin’s Dangerous Plan to Deregulate Wall Street Is Captured in this Chart

Two Key Execs at New York Fed Head for the Exits – Two Business Days After Sharp Cut in GDP Estimate

Hearing Profiles Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as Dark Villain to Rule of Law
How Bad Are Things on Wall Street? JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Offer No Minimum Accounts

As Regulators Squirm in their Seats at Hearing, JPMorgan and Citigroup Get Slapped with More Rigging Charges by EU

JPMorgan Chase Owns $2.2 Trillion in Stock Derivatives; Two-Thirds the Total for All Banks
Trade Wasn’t the Only Problem in the Market Yesterday: Citigroup Tanked 5.18%
Jeffrey Epstein Chaired a $6.7 Billion Company that Documents Suggest May Have Received a Secret Federal Reserve Bailout
Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2019, 02:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
J.P.M. ,,,, hunt for taxes,,, debt limit

JPMorgan Chase Owns $2.2 Trillion in Stock Derivatives; Two-Thirds the Total for All Banks
Understanding Deutsche Bank's $47 Trillion Derivatives Book - WSJ
With Three Felony Counts Already, Did JPMorgan Chase Really Need to Own a Ship Containing 20 Tons of Cocaine?
How Bad Are Things on Wall Street? JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Offer No Minimum Accounts
J.P. Morgan undoubtedly holds lots of derivatives with Deutsche bank. Deutsche bank is crashing and, J.P. M. is trying to raise cash by selling drugs.

"Debt limit: The most urgent issue facing Congress right now is the debt limit. Breaching the debt limit and running out of cash is much worse than a government shutdown. The latter closes a limited range of activities; the former means immediately balancing the budget on a daily basis and a high risk of defaulting on a debt payment. Last week, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to House Leader Pelosi that the Treasury could run out of extraordinary measures by early-September, meaning that there is less than two months until the "x-date".
"With Congress scheduled to be on break until 9th September, consensus expects Congress to raise the debt limit before going on break. There is bipartisan support to tie the debt limit to a new budget deal but if talks stall, a short-term increase could be in the works. Ultimately, the final agreement will likely lift the debt ceiling beyond the 2020 presidential election.
Budget deal: The previous two-year budget deal is set to expire at the end of September and a new deal will be needed to avoid across-the-board spending cuts."

The Central Banbks have been very clear. They want GOV to cut back on spending so that they don't have to do so much printing. This is the ongoing and, unfolding fight over fiscal policy vs monetary policy.
Wiki; "Monetary policy is primarily concerned with the management of interest rates and the total supply of money in circulation and is generally carried out by central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fiscal policy is a collective term for the taxing and spending actions of governments."

7/22 Facebook’s libra is already ahead of ethereum, litecoin, and ripple’s xrp – Forbes
7/21 Cryptocurrency is part of the global currency war, says Fed branch head – News BTC

Crypto coins have the ability to work around State capital controls. You can expect them to be severely curtailed.
7/22 China’s $40 trillion banking system learns a hard lesson on risk – Bloomberg
7/22 South Korea’s July exports down 13.6% year-on-year, led by chips – Reuters
7/22 Pensions devour towns – News Times

Armstrong, "Why is no one in the D.C. political class and media bubble really talking about the Jeffrey Epstein affair? "
"Nevertheless, the Left-Wing Media Machine has been pretending that anyone who asks questions about the Epstein-Clinton connection is a paid political operative of the Right-Wing Media Machine. The Right-Wing Media Machine, which would normally be jumping for joy about this or any sordid affair involving the Clintons, has remained very reserved in hyping the case. The silence from both sides has been deafening. This raises the question of why are both sides trying to avoid this topic? Is there just a fear that this could expose a lot of political leaders? How did our political and media elites ever become so hopelessly corrupt?" Horny

The French GAFA tax is an acronym for Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon which the French government has just passed. They are imposing a 3% tax on all business in France. The US has promised retaliation. This is part of the entire problem the world faces with trade. A lot of people talk about trade wars, but they live in the past. There is something far more serious at stake and that is the digital world and how governments are hungry for taxes to the point that they are threatening the viability of the world economy going forward for they are seeking to tax the digital world and every country has a different scheme in mind. This will only lead to an economic decline on a global scale"

The hunt for taxes is everywhere.
" Berkeley, California banned natural gas which is a clean fuel requiring homes to be powered by solar and electricity, that is normally twice the cost of natural gas. Then they hired a guy to enforce it and gave him a salary of $273,341 annually to start – plus pensions."

California is the center of the far left which takes the position that even undocumented aliens can hold a position in government, they support sanctuary cities, and of course, they are the major movement in the New Green Deal initiative. Berkeley, California banned natural gas which is a clean fuel requiring homes to be powered by solar and electricity, that is normally twice the cost of natural gas. Then they hired a guy to enforce it and gave him a salary of $273,341 annually to start – plus pensions.

The state is mandating that beginning next year, every new home must be fitted with solar panels, raising the cost of a new home by at least $10,000. Higher home prices, higher electric bills, fewer choices are hoped to reduce population growth. The claimed logic behind the Berkeley ban maintains that they can help the planet and reduce carbon emissions by eliminating natural gas and switching to electric heating and cooking. This is erroneous since the electric grid is powered predominantly by fossil fuels. The state prides itself on having very little coal use, but it imports electricity from neighboring states like Utah and Arizona where it is generated by coal. The scam is to buy electricity from other states displacing the emissions from California and pretending they are a “Green” state, provided you do not look too close.

The environmentalists are now pushing 50 other cities to follow the lead of Berkeley. It’s no wonder families are fleeing the state, and that California is led only by New York in out-of-state-migration. The worst of all is who can migrate. During the Panic of 1893, President Grover Cleveland made a critical observation. Raising taxes hurts the average person for the “rich” can leave and export their wealth. The average wage-earner cannot export their labor. All the studies show that people who earn more than $1 million a year are much more likely to migrate than any other class. Even the Governor of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has made the same observation and warned that raising taxes on the rich only results in their migration from the state.

California’s economy looks like that of France or Germany whereby the peak in economic growth was 2000. We can also see that the last peak was 2015 perfectly in line with the Economic Confidence Model. The long-term projections for California are actually lining up with the European Union and this seems to imply that the adoption of such socialistic policies that ignore economics is detrimental long-term. Even CALPERS, California pension system for state employees, was directed to invest in “green” projects for political reasons and lost. They have been trying to cover-up their politically correct investment decisions."
So, we can expect California to crash in tandem with Europe.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-23-2019, 03:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Speed bumbs on the downslope

Here is an article listing 2 E-trade commercials that aired just before 2 crashes. The gist of the commercials; throw your money at us and, everything will be good.
Oil consumption is falling.
Pox Americana can't seem to stop the Nordstream gas pipeline so, they are going to plan "B"
Europe Bans Natural Gas in New Homes

"The Fed meets on July 31 to make an interest rate policy decision. What should the Fed do?
Jim Bianco at Bianco Research says Only a Half-Point Rate Cut From the Fed Will Do.
"Anything less would fail to fix the imbalances in the global bond market"
Ah yes, the global bond market.

Armstrong, The Middle East has been in turmoil and Trump has stood his ground against the neo-cons.

7/23 European Central Bank could act before Fed to add stimulus – AP
Yep, desperation time. The meltdown of Deutsche bank will ensure that everything melts down.
7/23 The biggest bull market ever — yet disaster looms for millions of retirees – MW
The pension funds put hedge fund managers in charge of pension money. The hedge fund managers gambled away all the funds because, that's what hedge fund managers do.
7/22 Wall Street braces for Trump’s economic colonic – Vanity Fair
"$hit out a bunch of bankers" sounds like a good idea.
7/22 Fed’s national activity index contracts for 7th straight month – Zero Hedge
Ignore all that BS. It's only the stock market that matters.

7/22 Euro near $1.12 as investors wait for central bank meetings – Reuters
The States would like to free themselves from the limitations of the private investors. CAN they print debt-free money and survive. A very big question. Japan seems to indicate that it is possible. Apparently, the ECB will be the next to try.
7/23 Report: DoJ watchdog has evidence Comey misled Trump – Newsmax
NO!, he wouldn't do that.
7/22 After Russia narrative implodes, Buzzfeed fingers Ukraine as pro-Trump bogeyman – ZH
Now, we'll investigate Ukrainegate.
7/22 Hilarious hypocrisy: Sanders campaign workers demand $15 minimum hourly wage – ZH
But, but, they're working for a good cause. They should volunteer.

7/22 The race to zero emissions: Chicago meet-up, ocean fertilization, biofuel bind – Quartz
Chicago is on the shores of lake Michigan. There was a study done many years ago about the enormous pool of 34 degree water in the lake. They could pipe mega tons of cold water out of the lake and, use it to run chillers and cool the entire city. The water would be piped through existing coal-delivery tunnels. They could air condition the entire city for just the cost of circulating the water. NOPE, that would cut into energy usage.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2019, 02:50 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Globalization, corporatocracy and, the resulting downfall of everything

As many people have noted, globalization has not worked out well for most States. It worked very well for Germany and China UNTIL their competitive advantage impoverished their customers. There is a huge imbalance because capital can do an instant flow but, labor can NOT. Here is an excellent article that lays it all out. A corporation is a pile of money looking to grow larger. It is immortal and immune to prosecution. It has no brain, nor heart, not soul. It devours everything it can reach. It has NO PERCEPTION that it is destroying it's customer base. It now has personhood thanks to regulatory capture. This same regulatory capture has allowed it to acquire monopolistic powers that further reduce the purchasing power of it's customer base. It uses these same powers to force the State to subsidize it when it's customers can no longer support it's business model.

"However, one thing stands out: globalization has profoundly changed the structure of social and political power within each country by strengthening corporate power and their leaders’ influence, and by decreasing the power of workers in general and of labor organizations in particular. There are indications that it has hurt the functioning of democracy in several countries.

One general conclusion in terms of economic policy: in the context of economic globalization, it would appear essential that national governments retain control over their financial and banking sectors, as well as over their monetary policies, if they want to avoid, in times of crisis, that their economies behave like a ship without a captain, without direction on a rough sea.

More generally speaking, because of so many hazards, I am afraid that the all-out economic globalization that is currently being imposed on nations and people alike risks imploding, sooner or later. This is a model that has too many economic and political pitfalls to persist without profound reforms. That is because it de facto transfers the real power in our societies from legitimate elected officials to officers of large corporations and of mega banks, and to owners of capital in general who, in turn, can use it to corrupt the political system to their advantage. —There exists a basic economic and democratic deficit to economic globalization that will not be easily corrected."
Read the whole article.

CIA wants less transparency
Veteran Reporter Seymour Hersh On Trump-Russia 'Collusion' - 'It Was a Brennan Operation' (CIA)
Elizabeth Warren says that a crash is coming and that; only she has the answer.

Boris Johnson Wins Britain Right on Target
Posted Jul 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

7/24 Equifax to pay at least $650 million in largest-ever data breach settlement – NY Times

7/23 Bulgaria’s hacked database is now available on hacking forums – ZD Net

7/21 Russia’s spy agency hit in massive hack; 7.5 TB of data stolen – Zero Hedge

It seems like hacking is here to STAY.

7/22 Hong Kong protests: armed mob violence leaves city in shock – BBC
The mainland Chinese Triads (mafia) are beating up those protesting for democracy.
7/24 Gigawatts solar potential in coal regions in Europe, finds new report – SPE
Nuke power is a total economic bust. Britain plans to go ahead anyway and REALLY screw the ratepayer.
7/24 Not the Onion: NY Times urges Trump to establish closer ties with Moscow – ZH
Ah, somebody looked into the crash of fracking.
Good article on free riders.

7/24 Black hole in global banking is being exposed – Technical Traders
In the 2007-8 crash, the only liquidity available was the cash coming in from the drug cartels. J.P. Morgan is now pushing drugs. The system just doesn't have adequate liquidity to cover defaults and failing derivatives.
7/24 10 asset bubbles waiting to pop – Nasdaq
Right,,, look at equities DO NOT LOOK AT BONDS !
7/24 Why a 100bps ECB rate cut would crush European banks – Zero Hedge
They're looking pretty crushed as it is. There is another 10,000 layoffs coming.
7/23 UBS CEO warns of ‘dangerous’ bubbles spurred by central banks – Yahoo!
The CBs are screaming that monetary policy just isn't working any more. They demand that GOV institute fiscal policy like austerity. It's been well proven in places like Greece that austerity doesn't work either.

7/23 Shock and awe needed to un-invert the yield curve: half-point cut not enough – Mish
The yield curve is inverted because investors have more faith in the long term than they have in the short term. No shock & awe is going to buy confidence.
7/23 Richmond Fed unexpectedly crashes to lowest in over 6 years – Zero Hedge Remember confidence.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2019, 02:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Big tech hits Kryptonite,, Socialism is the cure

In previous ages, socialism was the firewall between, Darwinian pressures AND, the non-producers. GOV handouts to the unemployable in exchange for votes. If you couldn't / didn't work, you would just vote for somebody who promised freebies. Times have changed and, automation is wiping out huge niches of jobs. Evidently, the PTB have voted for socialism as the least-worst solution for general unemployment caused by automation. Naturally, the financial sector is very much against free money. I talked to an acquaintance who is a jewish banker. He said that it was great that B of A had increased their dividends. I told him that they had cut their workforce by more than 20%. He replied, "That's great, get rid of the fat."
He never considered that all those laid off employees would no longer be spending money.

The banks borrow short (interest on deposits) and, loan long. (30 year house loans). This creates a situation where they are always liquidity constrained. The FED was created to cover any temporary shortages with overnight loans for good collateral. Times have changed and regulatory capture means that the banks get free money. They no longer have to pay interest to attract savings. They earn an even greater margin loaning free money than they do loaning interest-bearing deposit money.
The banking industry is just too crowded and, they got over-extended. TARP gave American banks several hundred $billion. European banks were also over-extended. The FED gave Deutsche bank $ 354 billion.

The black hole of derivatives is sucking everything down. The banks are considered so systemically important that GOV will give them anything to keep them from collapsing.
Trump just signed an enormous budget because FED money is the only thing keeping the system afloat.
At the same time, there are forces that consider socialism to be the ONLY solution for automation. Apparently, they are pushing to crash the system to get us all to beg for socialism.
It's Obvious Who Will Replace Trump After The Controlled Demolition Of The Economy
" Once populist groups were entrenched and feeling overconfident, the cabal would then tighten liquidity into existing economic weakness and crash the system on their heads. Populists would get the blame for an economic disaster that the central banks had engineered many years in advance.

Once enough suffering had been dealt to the populace, globalists and extreme leftists would arrive on the scene to offer anti-populism as a solution; meaning the centralization and socialization of everything on a scale never before witnessed except perhaps in the darkest days of the Bolshevik Revolution."
Keep in mind that the writer is talking about jewish controlled Central Banks.
Aaron Liebermann: the father of Jewish socialism - Jstor

The Cloward-Piven strategy out of the Chicago School is a strategy designed to collapse GOV with crushing social demands. After GOV is crushed, a marvellous socialist phoenix will rise up out of the ashes.
The Jewish Role in the Bolshevik Revolution and Russia's Early Soviet Regime Assessing the Grim Legacy of Soviet Communism

There are credible claims that the left is trying to crash GOV right now.

Socialism is incompatible with human nature. The corporatocracy seems unconcerned with mass starvation. China and Germany did VERY well with globalism,,,, until their customers were impoverished and quit buying. The same is true of the corporatocracy. They have starved us down to where we no longer have children. NOW, they can only survive with State-created liquidity keeping them afloat. 12% of companies worldwide are zombies. To the corporatocracy, it probably sounded like a great idea to wipe out living wages. OBVIOUSLY, they didn't consider the long-range effects OR, they are trying to promote mass depopulation.

As Billions Pumped Into Restructuring, Deutsche Bank Suffers Biggest Quarterly Loss Since 2015
Yes, the black hole.

The Bay area techies believed that they could attack Trump with COMPLETE immunity.
Big Tech 'monopolies' targeted in sweeping new antitrust probe by US Justice Department
Facebook agrees to pay record $5 Billion fine over privacy violations, critics call it 'parking ticket'

7/24 Uncle Sam comes for big tech – Seven Figure Publishing

Good article on population growth,,, It's slowing a lot.
Seems that everybody wants to overthrow the government.
7/25 Per capita world debt has surged to more than $200,000 – Seeking Alpha
I'm sure that this will all work out in the END!
7/25 Junk-bond fund draws $622 million as negative yields go global – Bloomberg
These are people chasing yield, NO MATTER how risky.
7/24 Boeing posts loss of nearly $3 billion in 2Q – AP
YES, but think of how much money they saved by paying $9 an hour to Indian programmers to write their software. Once again, I claim that a corporation has NO BRAIN.

7/25 The world’s central banks are debating whether to change their strategies – Bloomberg
The CBs are screaming that GOV must cut back instead of printing more money. The systemic collapse that was POSTPONED in 2008, is knocking on the door.
7/24 Facebook is already dealing with scams for its own cryptocurrency – Forbes
Hacks my be the undoing of everything.

Residential RE is where the upper loop and the lower loop meet. BUT, a household is a money losing proposition. The upper loop has pumped their free money into RE as a store of value. The actual household has been priced out by speculators.
7/24 Pulte full-year forecast disappoints, higher costs persist – Reuters
Russian econ minister.

Armstrong on BoJo, "
Posted Jul 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

Boris Johnson has been elected as the new Prime Minister of Britain and he has promised to take Britain out of the European Union “come what may.” Jeremy Corbyn says Labour will table a motion of no confidence, designed to force Boris Johnson from office “at a time of (their) choosing,” adding “it will be an interesting surprise for all of you.” That is the main concern that if Labor gets a hold of the government, Britain will see a massive exit of capital and Corbyn will single handedly destroy the British economy, which has been the concern behind in the decline in the pound sterling."
Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2019, 04:36 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Bunch of headlines

Germany and China benefited from globalism but, eventually wiped out the earning power of their customers
7/26 Amazon stock tanks after disappointing Q2 results – Yahoo!
Amazon is going to kill more American jobs than China did ...
https://www.marketwatch.com › Economy & Politics › Rex Nutting

Of Course Amazon Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates, That's The ...

7/26 US GDP Q2 2019: up 2.1% vs 2% estimate – CNBC
This INCLUDES the money Trump & Pelosi are spending.
7/26 World trade in face of tariffmageddon, trade wars & manufacturing slowdown – WS Hmmm, no doubt.
7/26 Russia c.bank trims key rate to 7.25%, says more cuts on way – Reuters
That giant sucking sound is Russia hoovering up capital that is looking for returns.
7/25 European Central Bank could someday buy stocks, strategists says – CNBC
Convert their free money into assets,,, Why not?

7/25 US, Germany, Japan in manufacturing recessions: full-blown recessions coming – Mish
7/26 Gold at 6 year high in euros at €1,288 as ECB says outlook is “worse and worse” – GC
7/26 Inflation ghosts: past, present & future – Deviant Investor
7/26 Our trillion dollar deficit a sign inflation will hit us hard – NY Post

Yes, unfortunately, we're going to see prices rise.
7/25 Financial media elite defensively bash “useless” gold – Sound Money
ALL the CBs are buying it as fast as they can rip it out of the ground.

7/26 Brussels repels Boris Johnson’s quest for new Brexit deal – Guardian
I'm positive he planned it that way.
7/26 Lawmaker says she is under siege for seeking Epstein probe – Miami Herald
So, give us a list of the attackers.
7/26 Ron Paul: forget Russiagate, look at FBI-gate instead – 21st Century Wire
The CIA is more guilty.
7/26 The tyranny of the police-state disguised as law-and-order – Zero Hedge
France comes to mind.

China is signing up EVERYBODY to it's Belt and Road initiative to get one huge Asian economic bloc. At the same time, they are damming rivers and stealing water from India and Pakistan. Not happy with pissing off 1.4 billion people who depend on the Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra, they are now blocking water to the Mekong delta.
Just to make matters worse, we are going into solar cycle 25 that will last for about 5 years. It will be a time of "highly volatile weather and crop failures as we hit both extremes."
Reply With Quote
Old 07-27-2019, 02:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Too much prior liquidity cured by even more liquidity

Bernanke claimed that the FED caused the great depression one by not pushing enough liquidity into markets. The guy is flat out stupid. GD one was caused by pushing liquidity into the markets before the collapse. The DOT COM and RE crash were caused by pushing liquidity into the markets to keep the finance sector making money no matter how big it got.
In recent years, the CBs have created a reported amount of new liquidity of $ 247 trillion. Regulatory capture means that the banks get pumped up no matter how much legitimate business they have. Deutsche bank is a good example. With a stock price of under $7:00, they have a derivatives book of $45 trillion.
Here is an excellent article with a very clear projection of what we can expect when this bubble comes to an end.

Keep in mind that regulatory changes have changed the bank--depositor relationship. Your deposit is now considered an investment in the bank, NOT a deposit. Like any other investor, you can lose your money. Generally, when a bubble pops, the investors lose 50---95%
The Bail-In: How You and Your Money Will Be Parted During the Next ...

The FDIC is capitalized to about $2.4 billion BUT, it is covering deposits of about $70 trillion.

Last edited by Danny B; 07-27-2019 at 03:27 PM. Reason: grammar
Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2019, 07:01 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
The reign of the CB is coming to an end, everything else with it

Many decades ago, gold was the governor on how much "money" the CBs could create. With that gone, the "bond vigilantes" were the closest thing to a governor. The primary dealers are required to buy discounted new federal debt. They, in turn, sell it to investors. The yield curve in inverted because investors don't want short term paper. Since the State wants NO limitations on it's spending for welfare and warfare, it has used ZIRP to squeeze out the bond vigilantes. The FED credits the BOE or ECB or BOJ with a boatload of pixels with which to buy it's freshly issued debt.
The ECB is not in a position to do the same.

AOL, "Once President Trump signs the budget deal that was passed by the House on Thursday and is expected to be approved by the Senate in a few days, he will have added $4.1 trillion to the national debt, "
OK, so he is trying to pump up an inflated edifice that has major holes / leaks. Besides automation, there are other problems.

"Global debt is currently at $246.5 trillion and primarily in the Wealthier, Consumer Nations of the world.
The population of young in Consumer Nations has fallen 12% or over 100 million Since Peaking in 1975.
Debt on a per capita basis gauged against the consumer nations young is going parabolic."

"For nearly a half century wealthy nations young populations have been declining versus rising young among poor nations...offset by secularly declining interest rates and the addition of over $240 trillion in global debt to maintain unnaturally high rates of economic growth."
"Looking at the same chart but running through 2050, with UN population projections and debt estimated to continue growing at the same pace it has since 1950 (these #'s are inclusive of the impact of immigration and emigration). Continued declines among the wealthy young consumers, growth among poor young non-consumers, and debt running from the current $250 trillion up to $2.6 "
The only way to "have" $2.6 quadrillion is to Create it out of thin air.
OK, so there is $2.6 quadrillion in funny money sitting in some giant pixel factory somewhere. UBI could be used to convert this pixel mountain into consumption. This isn't likely because more and more people are seeing the absurdity of growth for growth's sake.

Armstrong makes it clear that stocks are going up because they are attracting fleeing capital. A great many people are only interested in protecting their capital,,, not so much earning interest. At what point do they change their minds?
"However, this was more than offset by negative revisions to US corporate profitability showing a sustained decline in US corporate profits, which have slumped to the lowest level in over 5 years even as the S&P has risen by 50% in the same period, indicating that all of the upside in the stock market was due to PE multiple expansion, "
The buybacks distorted the price--earnings ratio even as the indices rose to new heights. NO profitability.

House Approves $1.48 Trillion Pentagon Budget 'Unprecedented, Wasteful & Obscene'
Rather than creating some kind of regulated universal basic income, the State is pumping liquidity into the arms industry. This will make the rich even richer. It will NOT flow to Main Street. But, here are the numbers.
"Government Spending jumped to a 5.0% annualized growth rate (Q1 2.9%), led by a 7.9% annualized expansion in federal government expenditures (strongest reading since Q2 ’09). With federal deficit spending near 4.5% of GDP, fiscal stimulus has become a powerful force in the real economy. "
"“Jay Powell this month stressed the Fed’s determination to fight the sluggish inflation numbers dogging the US economy, warning Congress that downbeat prices could lead to an ‘unhealthy dynamic’ of lower interest rates and less room to act in a downturn. ‘We’ve seen it in Japan. We’re now seeing it in Europe,’ Mr Powell said in his testimony. ‘And that’s why we think it’s so important that we defend our 2% inflation goal here in the United States and we’re committed to doing that’.” "
The 2% inflation goal is a total ripoff of everyone but the bankers. The downturns in Japan and Europe are directly related to the downturn in population.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Fanning the Flames

The East "stole" the jobs from the West. The West went broke and, is trying to paper over all the problems with fresh CB "money". When the West went broke, this drug down the East because they had lost their markets. Consumption in the West is marginally / temporarily supported by wet ink money. So, while there is lots of "money" , there is falling consumption. The production--- consumption is what normally finances the banks and State. Substituting funny money for money that represented consumption & production is a sure way to get locked into permanent funny money production.

The hordes of beggars, bankers and bureaucrats has just gown too large for the actual economy to support. QE may support all the non-producers, but, the direct taxes and, the inflation tax drive the producers out of business. The FED and the State are trying to hold back the looming huge wave if defaults by pumping in money. Remember that 12% of businesses worldwide are zombies. Instead of whack-a-mole, the State is playing support-a-mole.
Every little niche that looks like it might go bankrupt AND default, is sent some kind of rescue. This just isn't enough. Millions of individuals are defaulting. The banks write off as much as possible and, Uncle Sam pumps them up. The current game is; hold off the default cascade by pumping liquidity into anything that looks to be falling.

The FED, PPT and ESF can create boatloads of liquidity on the sly. The ECB can't do that so, nobody will touch it's paper.
Here is a good vid explaining what happens when there is even a little shrinkage of credit.

Real corporate profit margins “revised” to financial crisis lows – Zero Hedge
Just don't tell anyone.
7/28 25% of bonds in the world make lenders pay for the privilege of owning them – MW
Desperation time.
7/28 Even the Financial Times notices how crazy central banking has gotten – GATA
The CBs are screaming that the State must abandon monetary policy and fix the situation with fiscal policy,,,,, more taxes and, less spending.
7/28 Once again, Uncle Sam shirks fiscal responsibility in budget deal – Reason
This isn't about financial responsibility. It is about avoiding revolution.
We form a State for mutual prosperity and mutual protection.
7/27 Once “prosperity” falters, the legitimacy of the status quo evaporates – CHS

7/27 EU about to face 2 realities: Johnson will deliver Brexit, eurozone in recession – Mish
Give BOJO time to make trade deals outside of the EU structure and, he will be free to kick Macron in the teeth. Farage will have his boot on Macron's neck.

7/28 ECB money printing is ‘rocket fuel’ for bitcoin price, says Pompliano – Coin Telegraph
7/28 Trump DOJ sues infamous bitcoin exchange for $100 million – Yahoo!
7/28 The U.S. Treasury Secretary issues dire bitcoin warning – Forbes

The various States have weighed in against BTC because it allows capital flight.
7/27 Wages aren’t keeping pace with home-price growth, denting housing market – HW
THAT is an old story. Most houses are bought by speculators. They are losing interest.
7/27 UK PM Johnson tells EU: ditch backstop or face no-deal Brexit – Reuters
Like Trump did to China, he gives them an ultimatum that they can't agree to. England will do a LOT of traded deals. Scotland and Wales will be left behind. Ireland is going to be in deep trouble.
Kunstler is of the opinion that our political crisis will bring big financial problems.

7/28 Cyber veterans imagine what a hacker-fueled war would look like – Fast Company
That's the future all right.
AOC is in congress just because she answered a casting call from the Justice Democrats. They are very finely pulling her strings.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2019, 10:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Benjamin Fulford

Fulford can always take your breath away.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2019, 02:57 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
CBs diversify OUT of public debt and, into stocks.

ALL sovereign debt eventually defaults. Between defaults, it is considered "risk free".
The CB takes Treasury debt and , monetizes it. Since the CB can create new "money" as fast as it wishes, it can buy other things also besides GOV debt. Currently, the CBs are screaming for GOV to abandon monetary policy and fix the problems with fiscal policy. Automation and outsourcing have wiped out domestic earning power and, consumption.
Martin Armstrong has given a fairly short timeline before public debt defaults once again. The FED holds $trillions of this debt and, isn't likely to ever collect.
Japan is even more problematic.
"Jul 10, 2019 - BoJ now holds nearly 50% of the government bonds
Bank of Japan's balance sheet now larger than country's GDP - Reuters"

The CBs read Armstrong and, they can see the writing on the wall. Sovereign debt will go bust before long. They are using their free money to buy ASSETS, rather than GOV debt.

". It's remarkable not only because the SNB actively chose to pour hundreds of billions of Francs into foreign stock purchases,"
"The SNB’s profit was lifted by a trio of positive forces: low bond yields preserved the value of its foreign bonds; higher equity prices raised the value of SNB holdings that included $2.8 billion in Apple Inc. stock at the middle of 2017 and $1.3 billion in Facebook Inc. and the weaker Swiss currency made those foreign assets worth more in franc terms. For the first nine months of 2017, the SNB’s profit was 33.7 billion francs. Of that, over 14 billion francs was from rising equity prices"

Central Banks' Plunge into Stocks: A Flashing Warning Sign ...
Proof That Central Banks Are 'On The Bid' In Stocks - Forbes
Central Banks Boost Holdings of Equities Beyond $1 Trillion .

It's not just stocks.
Why the World's Central Banks Are Going Embracing Gold - TheStreet
Central Banks' Plunge into Stocks: A Flashing Warning Sign ...
There is a lack of understanding on this process.
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk - Truthout
The CBs can buy up stocks,,, price insensitive. This can squeeze out the normal buyers who must make a profit. Remember that Keynes advocated "Euthanasia of the Rentier"
ZIRP bonds are a good start

Sep 21, 2018 - Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working .
CBs buy stocks with free money. Earnings are dead in the water. Why should CBs worry? As the CBs progressively abandon hope in holding GOV bonds, they will progressively buy more stocks.

While it is true, that CB stock purchases have raised up asset markets, they mostly want to diversify OUT of public debt.
Central Banks Buying Stocks Have Rigged US Stock Market Beyond ...
ECB can boost growth across Europe by buying stocks | Financial Times
China's central bank stocks up on gold as it seeks to diversify ...
World Central Banks Doing The Heavy Stock Market Lifting | Seeking ...
Central Banks Are Doing the Unthinkable – Buying Stocks

Armstrong, "ANSWER: Yes. The central banks have been buying equities to try to diversify their balance sheets as they also see what is coming down the road. Still, they are not the major buyers to influence the market in that manner. Corporate buybacks have been a much stronger factor in the marketplace.

The reason why we will not have a major crash is simply because this time it is different — the crash is in the debt markets."

If you look at markets from the right angle, you can see that the CBs don't want to be stuck holding nothing but public debt. But, as stated in the articles, this amounts to nationalizing companies. Nationalizing a big part of the economy could be a big step towards global governance.

The State is facing horrendous pension liabilities. The CB doesn't want to get stuck monetizing bonds for bazillions of dollars for pensions. The unfunded public pensions in America reportedly total $213 trillion. (Kotlikoff)

"Preliminary data for 2018 show that assets in pension funds amounted to USD 27.6 trillion in the OECD area, close to 4% lower than in 2017, according to OECD's Pension Funds in Figures. Calculated in national currencies, pension fund assets declined in 12 out of 34 reporting OECD countries, including some of the largest pension markets: Japan (-1.1%), the Netherlands (-1.2%), Switzerland (-0.7%), the United Kingdom (-0.3%) and the United States (-5.0%)."
Global pension statistics - OECD
Keep in mind that private pensions are NOT in good shape either.
S&P 500's Biggest Pension Plans Face $382 Billion Funding Gap

Here is an excellent article on the pension fund apocalypse.

Here is an excellent but, fairly dense article about the battle over the future world monetary system.
Related, 7/28 The threat to the global economy from resurgent imperialism – Murray

7/29 Who’s afraid of cryptocurrencies? Everyone in Washington – Dallas News
And Beijing and Brussels....
Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2019, 02:35 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
CBs buy up everything,,,, CAFR

The Central Banks are using their printing press to buy up equities and, diversify OUT of public debt. The FED was originally created to give overnight loans for good collateral to banks that had a short-term liquidity problem. NOTHING more. Time and again, they were hitched up to finance whatever war or social problem came along. The State always has so MANY needs. The private banks always have SO many needs. The reign of Central banks is coming to an end,,, at least in their original configuration. The federal government wants complete control over the printing press. What about the States and cities?
Walter Burien has a site that lists and exposes the finances of the 37,000 GOV bodies that tax the snot out of us and, stash it away.
" When Orange County lost a little over $1 billion in derivatives investments, they were crying "poverty" and threatening to shut down schools, police would have to be laid off etc. However someone dug into the Orange County CAFR and found out that the county had about $16 billion in profitable investments! The county, from their profitable liquid investment funds / cash position could have continued performing the same services, without collecting one dime in taxes, and could have done so for another 11.9 years from the existing funds"

"While he was a Mayor, Jesse Ventura's city council wanted to raise $360,000 in taxes to cover a short fall on their "city budget for schools." Ventura objected when he discovered the city owned $48,000,000 in idle investments funds from which the $360,000 could be drawn from without raising taxes!"
Kotlikoff reports that FED GOV has $231 trillion in unfunded liabilities. What Burien pointed out is; GOV projects it'\s liabilities but, OMITS to project it's income.
GOV always points out it's liabilities to justify more taxes.

Fracking is a net loser to the tune of $280 billion. It's not alone. Ethanol is a net energy loser. It is supported by the junk bond market. It is in trouble too.

I have to stop now. Any time that I link to certain subjects, my computer takes a dump.
Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2019, 03:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
pound / euro,,, saving the banks with unlimited liquidity

Had to restart.
Macron and other assorted idiots decided to play hardball with Great Britain. Bunch a panzies.
Boris Johnson Reportedly Says 'No' to Meeting EULeaders, Ramps Up No Deal Preparations
7/30 Deal or no-deal, Brexit dooms the euro – Tom Luongo
7/30 Pound worth just 85 euro cents at UK airports as sterling sinks – Independent

They're both going to hell,,, locked in a deadly embrace.

7/30 Capital One shares dive after data breach affecting 100 million – CNBC
7/30 Expert warns of cyber attacks on power grid; new approach needed – Military Aerospace
7/28 Cyber veterans imagine what a hacker-fueled war would look like – Fast Company
France Announces Plan to Launch Satellites With Defensive Lasers, Possibly Submachine Guns
India Launches First-Ever Space War Drill To Defend Satellites

New Russian S-500 ‘Prometheus’ can hit targets in space
The whole nature of warfare has changed so much that it is impossible to protect everything.

U.S. Treasury plans to borrow $800 billion. NOBODY is going to loan that so, they will have to run the printing presses in stealth mode.
7/30 Treasury projects $433 billion borrowing need this quarter – AP
California is slipping.
"First of all, the Garlock fault is the second largest fault line in the entire state of California, and it is a major threat to southern California.

Secondly, the Garlock fault runs directly into the San Andreas fault, and many believe that a major quake along one could potentially trigger a major quake along the other."

7/30 Companies increasingly using debt to repurchase stocks – CNBC
7/30 The Federal Reserve is gambling with the global economy – SHTF Plan
The FED will play games with the worldwide dollar shortage to prop up demand for the dollar.
7/30 Negative yields could be the death of bond markets – Yahoo
It's for sure that something will kill it.
TARP was just $700 billion to save the banks. It was authorized by congress. What congress did NOT authorize was; $16 trillion for banks worldwide BEFORE the crash.

Last edited by Danny B; 07-31-2019 at 01:04 AM. Reason: Mistakes
Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2019, 02:33 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Pumping up markets to avoid starvation and revolution

April to August 2007;
New Century
Bear Stearns
American home mortgage
Starting in December of 2007, The FED started pumping in liquidity, eventually amounting to $16 trillion to any banks that were at risk. Since there was about $13 trillion in dollar-denominated debt worldwide, only the FED could produce the needed liquidity. The total sum of liquidity PLUS guarantees eventually reached $27 trillion. The FED was originally created to backstop domestic, member banks. BUT, as the dollar spread, so did it's "responsibilities". Regardless of where it started the contagion from a collapse would spread everywhere.

Armstrong, "
Unfortunately, as governments begin to collapse moving into 2021/2022 due to the complete failure of Socialism, they will not simply yield to the people and admit that their fiscal mismanagement is the cause of destroying everyone’s future. They will not go quietly into the light."
Revealed: The shocking scale of poverty in France in 2018 - The Local

Armstrong, "The OECD has confirmed what our computer models have been warning that we are entering into the collapsing stage of Western Civilization that is being caused by Marxist-Keynesianism. Government keeps raising taxes and hunting down the rich, which is destroying capital formation and thus the prospects for long-term economic growth."
Armstrong certainly has his blind spots. This is from 5 years ago. He talks about a dearth of capital formation. Since then, the CBs have injected a couple hundred $trillion. The West is a high-wage,,, high-price economy. As the global mean wage is forced on us, we must revert to a low wage & price economy. All the injections are stuck in the upper loop. Wages and consumption have crashed because of automation & China / India. Many millions of people have lost their job niche. If the State tries to give them some support to avoid starvation, Armstrong calls this "socialism". If this "socialism" collapses, it will be followed by mass starvation and revolution.

"The OECD’s Employment Outlook 2013 is grim to say the least. This report is indicating that over half of joblessness is now long-term: one year or longer, and that young people and low-skilled workers will continue to be hit hardest exceeding 60% in many European nations. This is simply unsustainable and is bringing Western Society to the brink of revolution, civil unrest, and massive political chaos. The OECD reported:"
These people are NOT unemployed because of State "mismanagement". They are unemployed because of wage competition. Armstrong goes on to talk about Greek unemployment. Well, the Troika is taxing Greece to death to repay German banks who lent them money KNOWING that they would default. Is it any wonder that many bankers have been hung from lamp posts?

The Wave of Deflation & Rising Unemployment | Armstrong Economics
This so-called "deflation" is deflation of wages & savings of the middle class brought on by the price inflation created by the banks.

Armstrong, "We still see unemployment rising. The primary trend is the state and local government cannot print money and are the major source from which jobs will vanish. While that will contribute to rising unemployment from the private sector, the public sector is the one really in the crash and burn mode where jobs destruction is taking place not just displacement."

PRIVATE BLOG – Complete Disruption to the World Economy
Posted Jul 30, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

PRIVATE BLOG – Complete Disruption to the World Economy Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers.

Revenge of the Corporate Zombies: 15% of Largest US Companies ...
13% of the world's companies are 'zombies.' That's not healthy - CNN

Just imagine what will / would happen if 15% of American companies closed. Just imagine what would happen if American GOV / employment went bust.

Armstrong calls this the "collapse of socialism" BUT, off to the side is another facet that he never mentions.
The cost of the safety net is reckoned at $1.5 trillion a year.
The cost of the safety net for the rich is figured at $15 trillion.
It Costs $685 Billion a Year to Subsidize U.S. Health Insurance ...
United States Spend Ten Times More On Fossil Fuel Subsidies Than education

Study: U.S. Fossil Fuel Subsidies Exceed Pentagon Spending
America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies

NO mention of the $280 billion pumped from the FED to the junk bond market to the frackers.

So, what would be the cost of basics if they weren't subsidized?
7/30 Treasury projects $433 billion borrowing need this quarter – AP
The State is trying to keep all the balls in the air. Armstrong talks about revolution and general chaos in a clinical sort of way. The French government spends 57% of the GDP and still, people are hungry.
Getting Old & Risking Unemployment Thanks to Socialism | Armstrong ...
The banks are trying to preserve the notional value of the loans they hold. If prices fall drastically, everyone defaults. The banks are trying to maintain the "high price economy" long after high wages have left.

Reportedly, the food industry operates on just 2% margin. A big bout of price inflation would wipe them out.


Last but, not least.
"where the US economy is now, compared to September 2007 - when the Fed also started an easing cycle by cutting rates by 50bps to insure against uncertainty resulting from tighter financial conditions, and just two months before the last recession officially began in December 2007 - Morgan Stanley compared some of the key leading and market indicators now and back in September 2007."
"irst cut in 2007 without the benefit of hindsight – meaning, the Fed’s decision to cut 50bp had nothing to do with the coming financial crisis. It was about lessening downside risks coming from tighter financial conditions. Fast forward to today when it’s about downside risks coming from global growth and trade uncertainty.

And here Hornbach makes a the stunning observation: as shown in the exhibit below, things look worse today than at the September 2007 meeting on every metric."
"The US labor market data also look better today than in late 2007. "
" First, the S&P hit an all time high just after, in October 2007: that high would not be revisited until 6 years later, and at the cost of trillions in central bank QE.
Second, just three months after the Fed cut 50bps, the recession started in December 2007, which then promptly mutated into the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Third, after hitting a record - for the time high - the S&P then proceeded to plunge 60% lower by March 2009, and only the coordinated effort of all the world's central banks managed to restore faith in the Western financial system.

It will be delightfully ironic if the Fed's rate cut in three days unleashes a similar chain of catastrophic events."
Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2019, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Confiscation,,, CB problems

"A law was passed in 2010 that allowed any bank, if it declared a bank emergency, to confiscate deposits in such a way that the liability could be diminished or eliminated by the bank unilaterally. In effect: a license to steal.

This law was then tested. A trial balloon went up in Cyprus, where deposits were confiscated as a result of a declared but unannounced bank emergency. Since Cyprus is merely a small island nation, most people outside the country paid the event little heed, but it established the principle that it was all right to confiscate deposits if the bank felt an emergency condition existed. (And remember, the bank wasn’t required to announce the emergency prior to confiscation.)

Since the trial balloon was so successful, Canada also passed confiscation legislation (in 2013), as did the EU (in 2014"

7/31 Crackdown coming? China gathers forces on Hong Kong border amid unrest – ZH
I'm sure that this won't cause any capital flight.
Brussels to Build a Berlin Wall in Ireland in the event of a Hard BREXIT .
Boris Johnson Vows UK Will Never Put Physical Checks or Infrastructure on Irish Border

BOJO will be out there with a wrecking ball.

7/30 Summers blasts Trump: ‘no nation can devalue its way to prosperity’ – GATA
7/30 Why Trump’s low-dollar plan won’t work – Ahead of the Herd

Trump wants to devalue the dollar to make American exports cheaper. The Pound and Euro are crashing. The dollar is more attractive to the markets than anything else.
7/31 Central banks will unleash inflation and gold is headed above $5,000 – Kitco
The CBs created tons of new liquidity but, they didn't have any control over where it went. They tried to direct it to the upper loop. The upper and lower loop intersect quite a bit in Residential RE. House prices have risen for 88 quarters. Price inflation in consumer items has been about 10% (Shadowstats).
Price inflation in the lower loop has not been real bad. Yes, it will get worse.

7/31 Charts say recession is inevitable in the US – Lombardi
Wall Street is having record profits by gutting Main Street.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Main Street Small Business on the Precipice
7/31 Consumer confidence surges near 18-year high – MarketWatch YES, on some planet in the Lesser Magellanic clouds.
7/31 Why Morgan Stanley thinks the S&P is about to crash – Zero Hedge
Because they don't read Armstrong.
Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2019, 03:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Profit deflation,,,runaway debt,,, crop loss

Much of news articles are about how the Central Banks just can't seem to accomplish the price inflation they are trying to spur with their currency inflation. Why are they adamant that we must have price inflation?
Much of the chain of retail trade is financed by speculators before an item reaches the final vendor. The retail vendor uses his own money to carry inventory. This personal investment is repaid by his profit margin. The speculator is just a middle-man and never has contact with the final consumer. If there isn't constant price inflation, there isn't enough money to finance the speculators. The retailer has a necessary profit margin to keep his doors open. If that, is reduced by the speculators, he goes out of business.

A Dozen or so Companies Amazon Is Slaying This Year - Investopedia
Amazon Will Kill CVS And Walgreens' Business Model -- More Bad ...
Amazon is threatening these industries - Business Insider

As profit margins fall, more and more speculators go broke. The CBs want price inflation to ensure that there is a continuous cash flow for finance.
I needed a connector plug for 3 phase power. It was $46.92 at Graingers. It was $6.02 for an identical plug bought direct from China. China has a payment system that completely bypasses banks.
Why China's Payment Apps Give U.S. Bankers Nightmares - Bloomberg

The Western CBs demand 2% inflation to keep legions of money renters from going broke. The price inflation created by all these money renters has severely reduced purchasing power for the middle class. They insist on continual price inflation at the same time that we suffer from continual (effective) wage deflation. We stop buying so, they have to increase printing to keep the money renters solvent.
This is nothing new. It's just gotten much worse by the implementation of electronic currency.

"Hudson says that - in every country and throughout history - debt always grows exponentially, while the economy always grows as an S-curve."
In the waning days of the empire, debt is increasingly used to sustain everything.
Commonly referred to as the "everything Bubble"

At the same time that we face dissolution of the empire, the ongoing pole flip (started in 1880), means we also face food production problems related to violent and unpredictable weather.
Youtubers depend on hits and, often resort to sensationalism, there is always some truth behind most claims.


Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2019, 01:55 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Armstrong,,, whacking China,,, corporate debt

Armstrong, "I had tapes that would have put the whole New York banker crew in prison if we had a real government. There were tapes covering every manipulation they pulled off from rhodium to platinum and silver. It was the platinum manipulation that I had a tape of where they admitted to bribing to a Russian minister to “recall” their platinum to take an inventory. They forced platinum to rally, then the Russian minister announced they found “more” platinum to ensure the price would crash after they flipped their positions. Even Ford Motor Company was looking into suing over that manipulation.

All the evidence I had documenting each player and what they did was seized and vanished. My requests for documents were never honored. One is supposed to be entitled to discovery. There is no rule of law. You cannot win against the bankers."
And, he wonders why they threw him in prison for 7+ years.

Armstrong, "According to a new report by the Fraser Research Institute, taxes consume 44% of the average Canadian’s income. In contrast, basic necessities only compose 36.3% of consumption. “Taxes have grown much more rapidly than any other single expenditure "
"The number of $100 bills in circulation has surpassed the number of $1 bills, according to a recent report by the IMF. The number of $100 bills in circulation has doubled since the Great Recession. The Federal Reserve in Chicago noted that 80% of the $100 bills in circulation are held overseas, which reiterates the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency."
India has now slipped to 7th place according to GDP rankings. Last year, India occupied the 5th slot
India buys 1,000 Russian air-launched missiles

It looks like India is going to whip up a war with Pakistan to keep occupied. Keep in mind that both of them are participants in China's Belt and Road initiative of COOPERATION.

There are 2 great graphics on this page about the economic sanctions on China.
Armstrong, "There has been news suggesting that China wants to retaliate to the tariffs imposed by Trump, but their faltering economy and high debt burden does not allow them to do so. "
Trump is going to push them until they blow. When they blow, the whole world blows with them. He does have legitimate reasons;
"“Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to...”

“...buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and...”
"“...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...”

Asia has a long history of agreeing to everything and, implementing NOTHING. Trump is playing hardball.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Trump's China Tariff Tweets

8/03 Seattle house prices fall – LA, NY & Chicago hit 0% appreciation – Forbes
That can be the start of "jingle mail" where home owners drop their keys in the mail box and, walk away. It costs about $50,000 to do a complete foreclosure. If the price is falling and the value is reduced, there is no point in the bank trying to retain the house.
8/03 Fed’s mild rate turn crushes U.S. inflation expectations – Reuters
8/03 Stefan Gleason: as Fed disappoints, will Trump try currency intervention? – GATA

It just doesn't work that way.
8/03 ‘Hidden debts’ reveal risks of China’s lending spree – Asia Times
8/03 Perfect storm building for market correction – CNBC

Trump tries to put China up against the wall so that they fall first.
8/03 The Fed rate cut shows the Fed is either clueless or lying. Or both. – Mises Institute DESPERATE.
8/03 Global manufacturing recession started: China tariffs made matters worse – Mish REALLY ! ?

8/03 Trump’s new tariffs may set stage for more Fed rate cuts – GATA
8/03 Trump’s new China tariff was a shot at fed chair Jerome Powell: Peter Schiff – Fox

Powell says NO WAY !
8/03 Local pension costs grew in California at nearly six times national rate – GOP USA

Super Mario Draghi bought up public sector bonds with wild abandon. Legarde is replacing him.
"Instead, Lagarde will likely stick to her brief, as any good lawyer does. There’s no doubt that her years of operating as head of the IMF will also reinforce her inclination not to disrupt the prevailing austerity-based ECB ideology."
Austerity in Europe is the perfect poison pill.

The guy who correctly predicted the sub-prime crisis and, made billions off it has now warned against U.S. corporate debt.
When the U.S. falls into a recession, a credit bubble will explode ...
Swelling US corporate debt raises risk of global financial meltdown ..
The Countries with the Most Monstrous Corporate Debt Pileups: US ...
Corporate Debt Is Rising and The Debt Bubble Could Hurt Stocks .

Armstrong writes that public debt will blow up but, equities will do OK. How can corporate bonds blow up without blowing corporate stocks also?
Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2019, 03:28 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,887
Yes, the recession has started,,,free money for bureaucrats and bankers

In the lower loop, people must actually work for their money. Pumping in liquidity doesn't do anything for them directly. New liquidity is an instant "rush" for the upper loop. Since the majority of people are in the lower loop, they do most of the consumption.
Materials are down 18.5 %,,,, Industrials are down 12.2%. As these sectors fall, the upper loop needs ever-more liquidity pumped in.
"But in sectors that actually make stuff, like materials and industrials, earnings are suffering double digit declines.

From a practical standpoint, earnings are declining in these sectors because manufacturing is contracting. For example, this week it was reported that the Chicago Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) collapsed in July to 44.4. That is the second weakest Chicago PMI reading since the Great Financial Crisis."
"U.S. non-financial corporate debt is about $10 trillion, or roughly 48 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That is up about 52 percent from its last peak in the third quarter of 2008, when corporate debt was about $6.6 trillion, roughly 44 percent of 2008 GDP. "

Here is the graph, https://acting-man.com/blog/media/20...t-1024x676.png
The markets have topped out but, some gamblers still have a fear of missing out. It's called "picking up dimes in front of a steam roller" or "catching a falling knife"
Trump is hard at work trying to keep gamblers from leaving the table. Trump bumps up the trade war another notch and, Powell must lower rates to keep the markets from seizing up.
Powell swears, NO MORE cuts.

Endgame: Starting In 2024, All US Debt Issuance Will Be Used To Pay Only For Interest On Debt
There is no possibility of continuing to operate with debt-money. MMT is now called absurd by bankers who like charging interest for us to use our money. This isn't going to go down smoothly.
Federal debt, https://acting-man.com/blog/media/20...g-1024x678.png
The rise in total credit market debt.

As we get a greater and greater amount of automation, the State pumps in a greater and greater amount of new money. It flows everywhere.
Fleetowner, Oct 2010;
New Jersey pays $1.1 million per mile of state road.
Florida pays $671,000 per mile
California $545,000 per mile
South Carolina spends $34,000 per mile
California spends $94,564 for administrative costs per mile.
About 23 million work for GOV.

Democracy is socialism-lite. Both systems eventually crash the bank. Socialism is a system whereby the non-producers have a very big influence in the maternity wards. They pump out ever-more non-producers. The actual producers are tasked with supporting the non-producers.
"What is fascinating about this is that Parkinson's Law, albeit having been variously formulated since its first statement in 1955, predicts that the staff within a bureaucracy will expand at a rate between 5 and 7 percent per year, “irrespective of any variation in the amount of work (if any) to be done.” Isn't it interesting that government debt falls precisely within this range? "

So, GOV is trying to save a system with exponential debt growth. What does the slippery slope look like on the downside?
"Macron has made no decision to remedy the disastrous economic situation in France. When he was elected, taxes, duties and social charges represented almost 50% of GDP. Government spending represented 57% of GDP (the highest among developed countries). The ratio of national debt to GDP was almost 100%.

Taxes, duties, social charges and government spending remain at the same level now as when Macron came in. The debt-to-GDP ratio is 100% and growing. The French economy is not creating jobs. Poverty remains extremely high: 14% of the population earn less than 855 euros ($950) a month."
This is a very sad article about the destruction of a once great nation. There will be no saving of France.
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Please consider supporting Energetic Forum with a voluntary monthly subscription.

Choose your voluntary subscription

For one-time donations, please use the below button.

All times are GMT. The time now is 12:28 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v1.4.0 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Shoutbox provided by vBShout v6.2.8 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
2007-2015 Copyright - Energetic Forum - All Rights Reserved

Bedini RPX Sideband Generator

Tesla Chargers