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  #3361  
Old 07-14-2019, 06:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fables as far as the eye can see

It was learned long ago that the financial system locks up in a panic. Since everything is bought on margin and credit, everything locks up when confidence is gone. Banks won't risk their capital. The FED produces free capital to buy back confidence. Sure, there is an inflation price to pay but, that is better than a total lockup. The European have long been clamoring for the FED to lower rate and STOP attracting capital. At this point in the credit cycle, capital is looking for safety and stability, not necessarily interest.
NIRP is to be avoided also.
7/14 A third of all European IG bonds have negative yields – Zero Hedge
– Money Show
AKA junk or high risk bonds
7/14 Mid-August is a critical turning point for US stocks – Technical Traders
Maybe yes, maybe no. Has anybody really factored in flight to safety?

7/14 The black hole engulfing the world’s bond markets – Bloomberg
Governments are bankrupt and, can't seem to attract investor money,,, something about confidence.
7/14 10 stocks driving the market to all-time highs (and why) – Nasdaq
And the 50 government agencies buying these stocks.
7/14 How overheated is the stock market? – Upfina
That all depends on how much confidence you have in the regulatory agencies in any given jurisdiction. The more honesty that Trump brings to government, the more people will trust America with their capital. Forget China.
7/14 Worldwide semiconductor equipment sales collapse in 2019 – Zero Hedge
Ah yes, SALES. In all the focus on stocks, we have to remember that companies must actually sell something,,, not just buyback their stocks.

7/14 The Fed could be about to disappoint the market: Wells Fargo – CNBC
Sure thing,, just imagine Powell fronting this idea,,,, and Trump throwing him in prison. Not to mention European leaders arranging a firing squad for him.
7/14 Jay Powell disagrees with Donald Trump on nearly everything – CBS
What about capital punishment?
7/14 Are inverted yield curves signalling a recession or a deflationary boom? – Seeking Alpha
A deflationary boom is what happened to the Hindenburg.

7/14 How to avoid getting burned in bonds if the Fed is ready to inflate – Forbes
7/14 The Fed’s plan: extend & pretend – Upfina

/14 “Where the American dream goes to die”: house prices, rents, and incomes – WS
7/14 Study: home prices wildly exceed incomes – National Mortgage Professional

Not for free-money speculators.
7/14 EU at the crossroads: integration or disintegration – Southfront
Sorry, they no longer have that choice. They were told in the beginning that it would all collapse without a debt union. They figured that they could force a banking union later on. FAR too late for that.

"The stock market is no longer about pricing anticipated future earnings or business profits. It is merely about front running the Fed’s applications of cheap credit"
"Fake money has taken us to this strange and confusing place. By fake money, we mean legal tender that is conjured at will by central planners. Fake money includes the dollar, euro, yen, yuan, pound, peso, loonie, toonie, and practically all other world currencies."
"Going “parabolic” – in a stunning display of collective insanity, the amount of outstanding government debt with negative yields to maturity hits a new record high of $13 trillion in what appears to be an unseemly hurry. Buying debt securities with a negative yield is a trade that relies 100% on the greater fool theory to be profitable. So far there is evidently no shortage of greater fools"

About this collective insanity. Much of it can be attributed to people who actually believe mass media.
95 million Americans of working age NOT in the labor force but, unemployment is only 3.7%
Italy is bankrupt but, it can sell 50 year bonds with a 3% coupon.
Here is a longish article on how we are fooled and programmed.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/are-you-truly-free/
7/14 Big tech ‘indenture entire populations into servitude’ – Snowden – RT

Equality;
"People tend to be less satisfied with their own condition if they become aware that others around them are better off"
"Unfortunately for the egalitarians, this isn’t anywhere close to truth. There are many natural differences between individuals that are influenced by genetics. Environment does indeed play a role that can’t be dismissed"
"If Adams is right, the goal should not be a society without an aristocracy, but rather a society with an aristocracy developed through merit rather than corruption. "
Because equality is so contrary to human nature, any philosophy, including libertarianism, would do better to dispense with it. This does not mean we can’t advocate for equality under the law. This is a good thing. But the kind of equality that ignores human nature is doomed to failure.
https://beinglibertarian.com/misconc...ural-equality/
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  #3362  
Old 07-16-2019, 03:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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A new monetray architecture

Repost; Ellen Brown
"How China’s Mobile Ecosystems Are Making Banks Obsolete
Giant Chinese tech companies have bypassed credit cards and banks to create their own low-cost digital payment systems.
Bloomberg titled “Why China’s Payment Apps Give U.S. Bankers Nightmares”:

The future of consumer payments may not be designed in New York or London but in China. There, money flows mainly through a pair of digital ecosystems that blend social media, commerce and banking—all run by two of the world’s most valuable companies. That contrasts with the U.S., where numerous firms feast on fees from handling and processing payments. Western bankers and credit-card executives who travel to China keep returning with the same anxiety: Payments can happen cheaply and easily without them."
According to John Engen, writing in American Banker in May 2018, China processed a whopping $12.8 trillion in mobile payments in the first ten months of 2017. Today even China’s street merchants don’t want cash.
https://ellenbrown.com/2018/08/23/ho...anks-obsolete/

Moving on;
Central banker to the world – Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World
This article is about how the FED is pushing liquidity to the whole world, MOSTLY, the West

"In the period between 2000 and 2017, the obligations of foreign debtors to China increased from less than $500 billion to more than $5 trillion—or from around one percent of global economic output to more than six percent.
The majority of debt claims were acquired in international bond markets by China’s state-owned central bank."
"Research has shown that Chinese state banks issued around a quarter of total bank lending to emerging markets, propelling China into the leading global position as official creditor, leaving behind the IMF and World Bank."
"However, some 50 percent of China's international lending to developing and emerging countries bypasses official statistics, remaining unrecorded by the IMF, Paris Club, rating agencies or private data providers.

For the 50 top recipients of Chinese loans, who are predominantly smaller or poorer countries, debt to China grew from around one percent of their GDP in 2005 to over 15 percent of GDP in 2016."
Gee wiz, I hope that they don't default.
"The scope and lack of transparency of China’s lending, however, poses a challenge for debtor countries and international financial markets, leaving the country's risk analysis in the dark, the report stated."
RISK, we don't need no stinkin risk.
https://sputniknews.com/world/201907...edly-revealed/
Remember, a lot of these loans are not in cash. They are loans to allow these countries to pay for Chinese goods and services. And, then WHAT?
Warning sounded over China's 'debtbook diplomacy' | World news ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../15/w...book-diplomacy
May 15, 2018 - Academics identify 16 countries loaned billions that they can't afford to repay."

China, of course, plans to take over their infrastructure.

"American consumers and firms were able to enjoy and consume more than $500 billion worth of goods produced by the Chinese last year, while consumers and firms in China enjoyed and consumed a much, much lower valued amount of goods produced by Americans – only $130.4 billion. So if you simply answered the question: Which countries’ citizens ended up with the greatest amount of goods on net last year – China or the US? — the obvious answer would be the US. It was America’s good fortune to benefit from a YUGE “goods surplus” last year of $375 billion (see chart above), while China experienced a $375 billion “goods deficit.” And if anybody “lost” last year in trade, wouldn’t it, therefore, be China, which suffered from a net loss of merchandise totaling $375 billion?"
If anybody is 'losing' on trade, it's China. We got $505B of its goods and only gave up $130B = a $375B 'goods surplus' - AEI

7/15 China posts its lowest quarterly growth in 27 years as the trade war drags on – CNBC
7/15 America is insolvent, broke, deep into the red – Fosters

Maybe so, but we're better looking than China.
7/15 China struggles add to emerging-market risks as rate cuts beckon – Bloomberg
China struggles because nobody plans to repay it.

BTC just has too many problems.
"That power comes from annual electricity consumption worth around $7.5 billion. Furthermore, the cost of preserving mining rigs brings the total yearly spendings to operate the Bitcoin blockchain to about $10 billion –"
https://www.ccn.com/news/bitcoin-wor...ll/2019/07/14/
BTC and some crypto just have to much loss due to theft,
UK Finance Chief Ready to Engage with ‘Potentially Transformative’ Libra
The CBs want to kill it or, control it.

https://www.rt.com/business/464169-b...ryptocurrency/
The State wants to take over crypto so, they don't want big tech to do it.

7/15 Modern Monetary Theory is fact, and market rigging is its consequence – GATA
""The necessity for a government to tax in order to maintain both its independence and its solvency is true for state and local governments, but it is not true for a national government. Two changes of the greatest consequence have occurred in the last 25 years which have substantially altered the position of the national state with respect to the financing of its current requirements.

"The first of these changes is the gaining of vast new experience in the management of central banks.
"The second change is the elimination, for domestic purposes, of the convertibility of the currency into gold."
""Final freedom from the domestic money market exists for every sovereign national state where there exists an institution which functions in the manner of a modern central bank and whose currency is not convertible into gold or into some other commodity."
Yes, but that would eliminate the bankers
"MMT does not claim that the government should create and deploy infinite money. It claims that money can be created and deployed as much as is necessary to improve general living conditions and eliminate unemployment until the currency begins to lose value."
Do you see it.? AS NECESSARY. Wars are a definite necessity.
http://www.gata.org/node/19239
The article is worth reading.

So, the battle is joined. The SDR is an early casualty. Same for the Euro. The Yuan can't survive the worldwide defaults against it's State banks.
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  #3363  
Old 07-16-2019, 03:55 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Yes, the markets have turned

7/15 Groping for new tools, central banks look at Japan’s yield controls – Reuters
There has been a LOT of groping going on.
7/15 India lender shares hit six-year low as lending grinds to a halt – Bloomberg
There has been a lot of grinding going on also.
7/15 “It’s time to say goodbye to the rally in everything” – Zero Hedge
I don't remember wages rallying.
Red pill----Blue pill
https://northmantrader.com/2019/07/14/the-choice/
You should of bought gold.
https://www.ccn.com/news/dow-impact-...on/2019/07/15/

Armstrong, "President Donald Trump jumped at the opportunity to use the numbers to his advantage tweeting: “China’s 2nd Quarter growth is the slowest it has been in more than 27 years. The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries. Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal….”"
That is exactly Trump will stall until the cows starve. China figured that nobody could do anything about intellectual property theft.

Armstrong, "

There have been many people who fear the forecasts of the Bible’s Revelations and the sign of the Beast that no one will be able to buy or sell without receiving “a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name” (Revelation 13:16-17). Now you would think that someone would be concerned about mimicking that forecast. That does not seem to stop the trend to implant chips in your right hand which is your debt/credit card on a chip about the size of a grain of rice. All you do is wave your hand and you just paid for everything.

Of course, there is a slight problem. The powers that be know who your are, where you are, and you have surrendered all privacy. Perhaps there is no stopping this trend. The governments are in such desperate need of taxation and Quantitative Easing has failed because they argue people withdrew their case from the banks. They have ended bailouts in Europe and the future head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, is a champion of eliminating money and believes that each country should create their own cryptocurrency and all freedom will come to an end.

This very idea of implanting chips into your hand and eliminating all physical money is a dream come true. I believe it will become one proposal on the table in 2021-2022. Our computer which show major confrontations arising into 2032 which will also involve religion, certainly seems plausible after 4,000 people have accepted chips in Sweden who think this is cool."
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  #3364  
Old 07-16-2019, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Greed changhing to fear,,,,China, GOOD reason to hold fear

Much of the economy is "maintained" by confidence & fear. Fear of missing out,,,, fear of losing everything. Even though the various agencies are still pumping money into the markets, that doesn't help earnings in equities. The stock buybacks made EPS, earnings per share look much better that reality. The dire fact of the arrival of the global-mean-wage is always overshadowing everything. So, the stock market can continue to rise but, true earnings can not. This had brought a deflation of confidence.

7/16 China in worse shape than reports suggest – Rick’s Picks
They've always added a few % points to their growth.
7/15 China POSTS its lowest quarterly growth in 27 years as the trade war drags on – CNBC
If this is what they POSTED, you can bet that reality is much worse. By lending Y trillions worldwide, they hoped to develop world markets.
7/16 Japan’s old age colony: a demographic/fiscal death trap – Zero Hedge
7/16 SoCal cities are spending big instead of preparing for next downturn – Pasadena Star
86 million American consumers fear maxing out a credit card: Report
https://www.cnbc.

Everybody is charging full speed ahead using unsecured credit.

7/16 Global debt now totals $246.5 trillion after unprecedented borrowing binge – Axios
I don't think that "binge" is the right word.
7/16 Criminal gang abducts and tortures crypto traders, demands massive ransome – NW
7/16 Will Facebook and Telegram kill bitcoin and ethereum? – Hacker Noon

A good article on the "race to the bottom"
https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-declares-war/
Keep in mind that a currency war is a method to export unemployment. BUT, it reduces purchasing power for the man in the street. There is less consumption and, things slow down anyway.

7/16 California is producing too much solar energy – that’s not a good thing – USA Herald
7/16 Solar Foods makes protein out of thin air – Food Navigator

Nuke and Carbon are $hitting bricks as they get squeezed out.
HMS Queen Elizabeth: Water leak on aircraft carrier 'neck-high' - BBC ...
https://www.bbc
7/16 UK says sending second warship to Gulf – AFP

7/16 Bitcoin prices off 8% as Mnuchin says Treasury will ratchet up crypto regulation – MW
Even the NSA was hacked. What makes people think that crypto will ever be safe?

"How does Democratic Socialism differ from just “Socialism”?

It has the word “Democratic” in front of it, you see, which means it is achieved by promoting identity politics, stoking class warfare, and cranking that entitlement mentality up to 11, instead of literal violent overthrow of the government. Besides, voting for the government to seize people’s wealth is totally different from the government deciding to do so on their own, right? Err… uh… DID WE MENTION YOU GET FREE STUFF?? Say it with us: Socialism good, Democratic Socialism better!"
https://babylonbee.com/news/the-bee-...atic-socialism

"The white nationalists, only numbering in the low 20’s, were eliminated almost immediately. Still hungry for the blood, the leftist groups turned on each other, even attacking members of their own organizations."
https://babylonbee.com/news/extremis...s-finally-over

The markets HAVE rolled over and turned down. This site has some good graphs to give you a feel for just where we are.
https://northmantrader.com/2019/07/15/do-not-mix/

John Hussman, "While investors appear exuberant about the prospect for Fed easing, they seem largely unaware that initial Fed easings have almost invariably been associated with U.S. recessions. They’re running toward the fire."
"Similarly, our “Exit Rule for Bubbles” is straightforward: You only get out if you panic before everyone else does. You have to decide whether to look like an idiot before the crash, or look like an idiot after it. "
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment...ons/obs190714/
It's a pretty good article but< I don't believe that John is taking foreign capital inflows. As the mood changes from "chasing interest" to "protecting capital" the investment fundamentals change.
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  #3365  
Old 07-17-2019, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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D Bank,,,January 2020 turning point,, C.H. Smith

The market capitalization of Deutsche bank is currently $16 billion. Here is a graph of their stock price.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...aft/market-cap
"Apr 17, 2019 - A derivatives book of $49 trillion notional puts Deutsche Bank"
7/16 Bank run: Deutsche Bank clients are pulling $1 billion a day – Zero Hedge
Those derivatives are with other banks all over the world.
7/16 Bleak German mood weighs on Europe, Brexit pummels pound – Reuters No kidding ?

7/16 European bank stress test a sham, European Court of Auditors warns – Wolf Street
7/16 China’s first-half fiscal spending up as Beijing supports economy – CNBC
7/16 China’s debt ratio is growing as its economy loses steam – Bloomberg

Ride that tiger 1
7/16 China’s first-half fiscal spending up as Beijing supports economy – CNBC
7/16 China’s debt ratio is growing as its economy loses steam – Bloomberg
Your day will come eventually.

7/16 “Transportation recession” gets uglier – Wolf Street
7/16 Trucking bloodbath: 2,500 truck drivers lose jobs – Mish

7/16 Trump: ‘will take a look’ into Google working with China – CNBC

Alphabet had to be abysmally stupid to attack the entity that has final control over the airwaves.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...igated-treason

Armstrong; ANSWER: This turning point in the ECM on January 2020 appears to be the turn in public confidence on a global scale. Much of what I write about from false flags to civil asset forfeitures are all issues that are blending together in undermining the confidence in governments. This next wave should be inflationary. That also means we should be in a position where people lose confidence in government, but the central banks are trapped and the pros are starting to see that as well. With Lagarde replacing Draghi, we will see a shift in confidence in Europe as a whole as well."
Draghi was shooting blanks. LaGarde will do worse. European capital flight will increase
The inflation that Armstrong is talking about will hit essentials. The people will be in the streets en masse.

Armstrong, "Every single war we have entered from World War I to Vietnam and the invasion of Iraq has all been predicated upon false flags. President Johnson commented privately: “For all I know, our Navy was shooting at whales out there.” Or how about the declassified Operation Northwoods memorandum March 13, 1962, where they proposed killing Americans to justify invading Cuba.

Despite the mountain of evidence, the press endorses war, often instigates it, and then pretends they knew nothing."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...y-but-reality/

VERY good article from Charles Hugh Smith;
" This globalist ideology led to a variety of policy disasters and is now discredited in many circles, and has been under attack within the Deep State for some time. This is the divided Deep State I've written about for the past five years.
Is the Deep State Fracturing into Disunity? (March 14, 2014)
Is the Deep State at War--With Itself? (December 14, 2016)
The failures of Neocon globalism have ushered in another critical juncture.What is America's proper role in a multi-polar world that is fracturing across multiple faultlines? This critical juncture is a manifestation of a broader profound political disunity in America and many other nations.
The corporate media has obligingly portrayed this profound political disunity as a contest between "good globalism" and "bad populism," a clear attempt to smear all those who see the dark side of globalism as a threat to the nation and indeed the world. This bias reflects the continued dominance of the Neocon-globalist camp."

" But the cracks are now visible. The mainstream "influential" press has recently been publishing critiques admitting the failures of Neocon globalism and agonizing about how to "save" the globalist agenda despite its failures.
Globalization’s Wrong Turn--And How It Hurt America (Foreign Affairs)
I have long held that there is a camp within the Deep State that grasps the end-game of Neocon globalism, and is busy assembling a competing nation-centric strategy. There is tremendous resistance to the abandonment of Neocon globalism, not just from those who see power slipping through their fingers but from all those firmly committed to the hubris of a magical faith in past success as the guarantor of future success."

"America's current path of moral decay and soaring wealth/power inequality is tracking Rome's collapse step for step.
Enter the sordid case of Jeffrey Epstein, suddenly unearthed after a decade of corporate-media/elitist suppression. It's laughable to see the corporate media's pathetic attempts to glom onto the case now, after actively suppressing it for decades:Jeffrey Epstein Was a Sex Offender. The Powerful Welcomed Him Anyway. (New York Times) Where was the NYT a decade ago, or five years ago, or even a year ago?"
The hidden conflicts within the Deep State are emerging, and the resulting crisis will be explosive. Remember, the housecleaning must be public or the legitimacy of the state will go over the cliff. If the Deep State wants to retain its power, it must root out the corrupt degenerates before they bring down the entire rotten structure."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Epstein and the Explosive Crisis of the Deep State

7/16 U.S. retail sales increase solidly in boost to economy – Yahoo
7/16 US industrial production unchanged in June – AP

AND
"Freight shipments in the US across all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – fell 5.3% in June compared to June last year, after having fallen 6.0% in May, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. "

The jink bond market normally commands <15%> interest. Junk bonds now are entering ZIRP territory.
"As for why that’s bad, well, let’s count the ways. First, it funnels cheap capital into companies that by definition don’t deserve it, which results in “malinvestment” on a vast scale. Second, it starves pension funds and retirees that need income, forcing them to take on ever-higher degrees of risk. Combine massive misallocation of capital with excessive risk-taking by investors who don’t understand risk, and the result is an epic crash when junk borrower cash flows inevitably disappoint. "
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/junk-...gative-yields/
"cheap capital into companies that by definition don’t deserve it,"
12% of companies worldwide are zombies. Imagine the unemployment rate if the zombies were allowed to die.

Global Debt Hits $246 Trillion, 320% Of GDP As Developing Debt Hits All Time HIgh
Much of that "developiong debt" is owed to China by countries that can't pay.
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Last edited by Danny B; 07-17-2019 at 01:45 PM. Reason: $pelling
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  #3366  
Old 07-17-2019, 02:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Important notes from Armstrong

I'm sure that all of you know that "socrates" is the name of the program that Armstrong and his undergrads built decades ago. I won't go into the details of it's history and, capabilities. Armstrong seems to schedule his world economic conferences right at big turning points. Armstrong said that January 2020 would be a huge turning point. Previously, he said to have 1 month worth of bill-paying money and, 1 weeks worth of food. He can NOT possible be specific about what is going to be the focal point of the January change. He would immediately be accused of causing it. He ALREADY has been so accused and sent to prison by the NYC banks who accused him of controlling the economy.

Copy & paste is a tool that tempts people to be extremely long winded. I try to keep this under control.
Armstrong; "Meanwhile, we face the biggest Bond Bubble in the history of civilization and the last time something like that took place, it did not end very nicely for civilization
We are looking at such an important shift this time in the Business Cycle that those attending the WEC this year will also receive ongoing video updates as needed because things are not going to be just a walk in the park. The fact that the Dow has exceeded the 2018 high already, warns that the pattern we face is going to be plagued with a political crisis.
We have so many markets at critical junctures as we head into the ECM turning point, this year’s WEC is going to be a critical forecasting event. Most importantly, we have to face not just a Monetary Crisis Cycle which is becoming obvious to everyone as the British pound takes a nosedive, but everything from Energy to Agriculture is in the staging ground for the next ECM along with precious metals.
Central Banks (some who have been attending the WEC), are now beginning to lobby the fiscal side trying to warn them of impending doom and how they CANNOT possibly prop-up the world economy this time around.

Because all of these things are coming together, the attendees of this year’s Orlando WEC will receive ongoing video updates because this is just such a widespread crisis that is impacting every possible corner of the global economy and the ONLY way to survive this is going to be with Socrates because there is ABSOLUTELY no precedent to which we can refer to in history.
There are people calling now for the greatest crash in history, and others are now starting to claim the Dow will test 30,000. The opinions ARE just not going to cut it in this environment. So this year’s WEC will be different, but very critical. So are we Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door or the Big Fake Out as we face the Monetary Crisis Cycle and probably the most polarized political election ever in 2020. So those attending will get ongoing updates as necessary since this is probably the most critical period we face in modern economic-political history.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-big-fake-out/
Ongoing updates seems to imply the economy will be whipsawed violently.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...art-race-wars/
Armstrong asks a rhetorical question. The answer is YES

Armstrong on GOV pension debt.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-hole-of-debt/

"Our confidential sources are reporting that the Fed, ECB, and BoJ have agreed to lobby politicians in an attempt to warn them that they cannot continue propping up the world economy. The ECB, in particular, has been keeping the EU on life support and they have no room to lower interest rates to try to support their economies any longer. They are beginning to argue that they need help from governments in the rescue effort, which our computer model warns will fail."
"The slowing global economic growth has pushed the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and perhaps even the Bank of Japan to look at more Quantitative Easing. However, the Fed, especially, wants no part of buying government debt."
WAIT, what about the re-election?
"The cries behind the curtain are that monetary policy alone in the coming months cannot support the economy. There is just less room to act with regard to interest rates than in the past. This has been the pitch in Brussels as the ECB is warning politicians they will need to assist if a downturn takes hold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...h-politicians/
How does a politician "assist"?
Austerity in Britain has reduced the London police force by 20,000.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/464301-pove...-gangs-london/
Will politicians implement more austerity?
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  #3367  
Old 07-17-2019, 02:41 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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How much of the corruption will be rooted out before the crash?

Kunstler, "What the nation doesn’t get is that the shale oil industry is sure to collapse, and at least as rapidly as it shot up. So, expect the stock markets to collapse with it, along with tremendous collateral damage to all the other instruments that represent “money” — bonds, currencies, and their derivatives. It will make the 2008 episode look like a mere overturned poker table when it happens. "
" We’re faced with the imminent and rather drastic re-organization of everyday life in America without oil. It should be reasonable to assume that the process will be disorderly, and the longer we ignore it, the more disorderly it will be. Granted, it is a tall order for politicians to talk about things this scary. The hard truth is that intelligent responses to this quandary would require heroic effort and painful change — and would probably be emotionally unacceptable to voters. It would entail the dismantling of suburbia and all of the activities associated with it, a severe shrinking of government at every level, the abandonment of most of our military playthings and overseas commitments"
https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...-looms-behind/

Kunstler equates the end of peak-cheap-oil in America to the end of peak-cheap-oil. The world has lots of cheap oil. We will just have to pay more for it. Price inflation will follow a rise in the price of energy, the master resource. We can just BUY the damn oil from Venezuela instead of trying to use the CIA and military to try to install U.S. oil companies in control of the country. Screw Cheney and his cronies.

Israel has long worked to try to gain control of the world. They over-reached and, blew up their bond market in the early '80s. I was there when they knocked 3 zeros off the Shekel. This didn't stop them. They bought all the American politicians that they could reach. Wolfowitz personified the jewish neocon mentality. Full control of the world by any means. Well, now, the U.S. bond market has been blow up. I was told by israelis that israel is a communist country. Dunno. Communism always goes broke. America has supported israel to the tune of hundreds of $billions. Now, we are broke .

Repost, oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Epstein and the Explosive Crisis of the Deep State
There is a growing appreciation that the neocon faction of the deep state has brought us to ruin. MUCH of the battle against the deep state is between fractions within. Trump made a big mistake in NOT cleaning out ALL the Obummer appointees. He had no idea of just how entrenched the israeli / communistic faction was in the intelligence agencies. The NSA, being more of a military arm was not near so corrupted.

It remains to be seen just how much of the corruption can be cleaned out by following up on the Epstein / MOSSAD honey trap web.
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Old 07-18-2019, 02:23 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Paradigm shifts by Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is called the bond king. He runs the largest bond fund in the world. He recently had a program created to do bond trading with machine intelligence exclusively. The humans are there just to ensure that the computers receive accurate information. He has the experience AND the liberty of free time to investigate the past as far as economic cycles go.
Like Armstrong, he sees that this economic history runs in cycles. The economy morphs from one paradigm to a new paradigm. Here is a very good article that you should read.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/parad...fts-ray-dalio/
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Old 07-18-2019, 03:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The bumps in the road are getting bigger

Ray Dalio is calling for a paradigm shift. They happen quite frequently so, it is easy to believe that he is correct. The American PTB want to keep things going exactly as they are. Every time that the paradigm threatens to shift, the FED throws money at the markets to try to preserve the status quo. This holds things together temporarily but, creates enormous distortions.
Turkey is a member of NATO but, just bought highly advanced Russian weapons in case they are attacked. There are numerous distortions in every corner of the world.
Armstrong is calling for a total crash of sovereign debt and, a rotation into private debt. He is calling for the DOW to hit 35,000 by 2021.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/marti...35000-by-2021/
The confidence and mentality have shifted to where investors are little concerned with earning interest on their capital. They are mostly worried about retaining the purchasing value of their capital.
As various sovereign governments try increasingly stupid moves to corral capital inside their borders, investors find increasingly innovative ways to get it OUT of the borders.
Remember that the stock indices are quoted on the performance of a small basket of stocks. The indices could easily hit historical highs and, the broader market could be in the dumps.
Stocks to buy: Just 10 stocks are holding the fort; rest have lost
https://m.economictimes


Crypto currencies are working very well for draining capital OUT of regimes that are too controlling or too socialist.
Much of the unipolar world was enforced by CENTCOM and the FED. This is slipping away.
Venezuela may switch from SWIFT to Russian payment system to skirt US sanctions
Venezuela Sells $40 million in Gold Reserves Despite US Efforts to Prevent It

Mossad-linked group seeks seizure of Iranian oil tanker OH ! What a surprise. We need more wars.
IDF Practices Invading Gaza Just Days After Hamas Drills for Israeli Invasion Go ahead,,, do it!
The junk bond bubble, https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EaueKaY2sMLBQ/
7/18 “We’re never going to go away from zero:” Kyle Bass’ latest trade – ZH
Keynes wanted "euthanasia of the rentier". With MMT, the State could create all the liquidity needed in the economy, interest free. I just don't see that happening. It would allow unlimited war finance.

"Proponents of the gold standard argue it provides long-term economic stability and growth, prevents inflation, and would reduce the size of government. They say a gold standard would restrict the ability of government to print money at will, run up large deficits, and increase the national debt. They say the economy has historically performed best under a gold standard. "

7/18 IMF endorses dollar devaluation – GATA It is strictly up to the markets. GOV can legislate against capital flight but, it doesn't make any difference. Armstrong said that; if the dollar continues to rise, it will choke all other currencies.
7/18 Ray Dalio says gold will be top investment – CNBC
7/18 Double top in transportation and metals breakout are key topping signals – TT. There is NO doubt that markets have topped.
7/18 Europe dove into negative rates and now can’t find a way out – GATA
Ah yes, unlimited socialism for unlimited garbage immigrants gets expensive.
World government requires absolute control. The societies with the most racial continuity are the most stable societies. Look at the French / yellow vests. They have racial solidarity. The PTB who champion a new world order do NOT want any kind of solidarity. Flood the place with the worst kine of immigrants and, Voila ! , you destroy any kind of solidarity and resistance to control.

Qatar has sent arms right up to air-to-air missiles to dissidents in Europe to really get a revolution going.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ght-activists/
Armstrong, "When I look at lending into the agricultural sector, the big Wall Street banks are once again perfectly in line with the cycle. They peaked in loans to farmers back in 2015, and have been declining ever since going into 2020. Bank lending to the agricultural sector peaked with the ECM and we will see it bottom in 2020. Our model will be correct in forecasting the next wave, which will be a cost-push inflationary wave. "
GREAT, food price inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...icas-heartland
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The down side of globalism

Well, "they" wanted global communication, global capital transfer, global financial integration,,, EVERYTHING 'harmonized. The advent of containerized shipping created and enforced a global mean wage. Consumption has crashed as global currency inflation created price inflation. All the various instruments relied on tapping into the productive economy. This parasitism depends on a robust production-consumption cycle. It also depends on the participants earning a "living wage". You can very well tax Americans who are living on 8 bucks an hour. The CBs rode to the rescue of the banking system,,,, at the point of a State knife held against their collective backs. They are now screaming that IT ISN'T WORKING. The faltering economy just won't support this level of parasitism. The State has no plan or intention of scaling back it's spending.

Armstrong; " A lot of people have written in about my comments concerning how the world is completely in a state of global chaos which is why this year I will be providing a continued video update for the 2019 WEC attendees."
OK, continued video update. This tells you that volatility will be off the charts.
Continued, "Those looking at the arrays of many markets are also starting to notice how global markets are correlating on a worldwide basis. Never before have I witnessed such mass correlation around the world which is demonstrating that this is by no means about local issues or the rise and fall of GDP, interest rates, or inflation. We are facing a VERY serious crisis and this is part of the Monetary Crisis Cycle"

"Attendees of Orlando will receive a special report on the Monetary Crisis Cycle outlining the timing and what we should expect as the years unfold. It is clear that our computer is picking upo this great convergence never before witnessed in financial history. This year’s WEC we will be covering the world to reveal just how we are all connected and how to keep track of this insanity that we are going to embark upon.
This is clearly the sum of all our economic fears."
Well, maybe absolute centralization isn't such a good idea after all.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, in relating your comments on weather and how the winters will spike to record cold and then the summers will spike to record highs, is this the same as a panic cycle in markets?

HC

ANSWER: Yes. Our computer looks at the weather the same as it does with the price in a market. Patterns emerge and you can understand the causes ONLY by correlating the trends with everything else. This is indeed a Panic Cycle where we exceed the previous high and penetrate the previous low. This coming weekend will see temperatures break 100 in the Northeast. I have lived in New Jersey and there were plenty of summers where we have days at 103. This is NOT abnormal. What is abnormal is the volatility how we can go from a winter where it was colder in Chicago than it was in Antarctica and then we break the record highs in July. It is the VOLATILITY – not the empirical level of temperature we should be paying attention to.

7/19 Gang of masked men raid bitcoin exchange in Birmingham – Coin Telegraph
7/19 Gold wins in a currency war – Deutsche Bank – Kitco
Even DB knows that gold is important.
7/18 Philly Fed’s regional business index hits one-year high – Investing
7/18 U.S. leading economic index posts biggest drop since 2016 – MarketWatch
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Old Today, 02:46 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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What's next for public debt?

Armstrong claims that a historical view shows that capital moves alternately from private debt to public debt. He said that the rotation out of public debt (sovereign bonds) would lead to an abandonment of all public debt. The 200 PHDs working for the FED, not to mention the huger numbers of FED-sponsored chairs at various universities may have come to the same conclusion. EVERYONE reads Armstrong.

The various Central Banks have been buying up private equity for years. The BOJ owns 1/2 of all exchange traded funds . The BOJ is also buying up Japanese government debt by the trillions. Presumably, the CBs expect the State to default on public debt.
The ECB is buying up public debt just as fast as the EU members can issue it. If Draghi doesn't buy it up, nobody will. Armstrong claims that the ECB has destroyed the European sovereign bind market. In a ZIRP environment, the CBs can issue new bonds, receive the principle and, ignore the interest burden. First, of course, they had to create mega tons of liquidity so that somebody would have the cash to buy the bonds. It didn't work out that way and their bonds were shunned by the private debt markets.
Meanwhile, the FED is able to sell U.S. public debt through shells and proxies. While public debt in America sees more demand than public debt in the Eurozone, it is still far short of being fully subscribed by legitimate buyers.

This is a big confidence game that America is currently winning. Money renters seem to ignore bogus employment numbers. They mostly ignore crashing productivity numbers.
They look at the abysmal lies and numbers that come out of the shotgun marriage that is the European Union.
They look at the draconian control that the Chinese are laying down on a nation of gamblers.
They have decided that American private markets carry the best possibility of investor safety.

The State, being a non-producer, has always had to rely on taxes and theft to fund itself. The Central Bank was invented to fund wars and, manage the finances of the State. To smooth out finances, the State started selling bonds,,, usually war bonds. Later, the CBs sold all kinds of bonds. Still, the State had to ultimately rely on taxes to repay bonds. The State had to rely on private investors to buy it's bonds. Historically, the State has used currency inflation to alleviate the burden of repaying GOV bonds. This inflation has historically removed up to 50% of the burden of repayment. The State is always trying to inflate away the burden of debt repayment. Meanwhile, the banks are first in line when the new money is passed out. The bankers lose value on the bonds they hold because of State sponsored currency inflation. They gain value on their bonds because they are first in line for money.

When the State talks about printing free money directly to pay it's bills (some form of MMT or chartalism), the banks are squeezed out of the public bond market.
It is a safe assumption that public debt is going to crash. It ALWAYS does.
It is a safe assumption that the State is going to try to survive intact.

The whole Central Bank experiment / regime lasted for a few hundred years. It's gone crazy of late.

Japan has printed "money" by the boatload but, still retains a certain amount of investor confidence.
Will America print money by the boatload to get away from the restriction of having to depend on PRIVATE money to fund it's spending?
Armstrong claims that; in the future, private debt will have one interest rate AND, public debt will have another, higher interest rate. This is an impossibility.
One way or another, FED GOV is going to escape the monetary control of private money.
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