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Old 06-26-2019, 02:45 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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In spite of TINA, confidence is slipping

Ludwig von Mises said that all credit bubble eventually collapse. FED GOV has produced enormous bubbles ever since it escaped the restriction of gold. GOV must pay for all it's toadies, it's 22 million employees,,, it's wars and, it's welfare dependents. The Japanese model seems to indicate that it can just print new money to pay for everything.
At $21 Trillion, The National Debt Is Growing 36% Faster Than The US Economy. March, 2018
Since Pox Americana has no intention of ever repaying this debt, the debt-service cost is what matters. The original idea was; since the CBs passed out all the free money, money renters only worried about interest income and NOT, repayment. This free money meant that banks no longer had to pay interest on deposits nor attract capital. Free money to them and, 22% credit card interest to you.
Just how long could this arrangement be maintained?

Negative interest on bonds ($13 trillion worth) should be good for stocks. here is a good article showing that this just hasn't happened.
Stocks are pumped up by the CBs and, nobody is attracted to them.
Banks, transports and small caps are below their 200 day moving average.
While everybody is pushed to keep their money in the markets, NIRP and falling dividends is a big negative. The CBs are counting on TINA, there is no alternative.

Armstrong, "ANSWER: Nothing. What is happening is that we are running into reality. The entire Quantitative Easing has completely failed. The focus on interest rates has been lost insofar as we are dealing with a major question of a structural crisis."
So, just how bad will the collision with reality be?

More reality;
US shale an 'unmitigated disaster' with industry hundreds of billions in debt - shale pioneer

$9 trillion corporate debt bomb is 'bubbling' in the US economy Nov, 2018
Gundlach: Corporate Bonds Could Be a Repeat of the Sub-Prime Crisis It is expected that corporate debt will blow this time around.
Keep in mind that most of the recent rally has been in JUNK corporate debt.
6/26 Trouble at the Bakken: oil production finally peaking? – SRSrocco Report
Profits peaked about 8 years ago.
/26 It’s 2007 all over again: JPM is pushing synthetic CDOs to the masses – ZH
Those aren't masses, they're muppets.
6/26 Trickle down theory: Powell chastises Trump, praises himself – Mish
It's price inflation that is trickling down, NOT wage inflation.

6/25 “We’re nearing the moment when everyone tries to exit the bond market” – ZH
To WHERE? stocks are more than 2 times overbought.
6/25 Leonid Bershidsky: Putin’s big bet on gold is paying off – GATA

The price of gold does go up an down a bit. Most of the change in price is just a change in the value of the currency that is used to buy the gold. Gold doesn't go up. It's just the currency going down.
6/26 Big tech, big banks push for “cashless society” – FX Street
6/26 MSM silent after Google election meddling bombshell – ZH

That will definitely bite them in the A$$.

God messed up and, failed to make all people equal. The libtards are trying to correct this oversight.

MSM has far too much power over the public. It is going to get even more ,concentrated.
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Download SOLAR SECRETS by Peter Lindemann
Free - Get it now: Solar Secrets

Old 06-27-2019, 04:42 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Create more debt because, nobody has a better plan

Where to start? There is a lot of news that affects the economy.
The CBs have created megatons of "money' but, still expect this "money" to retain it's previous value.
The vast majority of this "Money" is denominated as DEBT.
How much debt? $184 trillion. Your share is $86,000 Even if you live on an aborigine reserve south of Darwin, you still owe $86k
Interest rates reflect the value / demand for money. Supply is gargantuan and, interest rates are falling.
"Citing a report from the Bank for International Settlements, which found that 12% of publicly listed companies around the world can be described as zombie firms (meaning they don’t earn sufficient profits with which to cover their interest payments), Sharma concluded that simple policy miscalculations are on display:"
These are not policy miscalculations. This is a calculated attempt to maintain employment.
Along with employment, we have energy problems. Fracking has lost $208 billion. The FED is pumping it up by proxy.

QE is an attempt to float businesses that employ people. It is soon to be institutionalized as MMT and UBI.
Janet Yellen has now warned about excess debt.
Saudi Arabia's business model may guide the future bankers.
Everybody knows that Germany is the powerhouse pulling along the Eurozone. No more.
Everybody knows that gold is just a pet rock. Italy plans to pay off debts with mini-bots. The ECB plans to take Italy's gold.

The Chinese are manufacturing millions of Carats of gem quality diamonds.
The gold ETFs trade 50% of world supply every day. They claim that physical gold is an old anachronism.
Paul Craig Roberts shows exactly where we are economically.

6/27 Something’s wrong with this rally in the stock market, JP Morgan says – CNBC
6/27 UBS: world economy ‘one step away from global recession’ – Yahoo!
6/27 A leveraged-lending bust could hit economy quicker than subprime blowup – MW
6/26 Apple doubles down on buybacks, spending a record $23.8 billion in Q1 – Axios
6/26 A group of five stocks are so big they’re essentially the stock market – CNBC

There is good reason to believe that the unwinding will hit VERY fast.
6/26 Time for an international gold reset – Deviant Investor
The State and the bankers want unlimited power to do unlimited money / debt expansion. They don't nee no stinkin gold reset.

6/26 Trump says Twitter, other tech giants are ‘all Democrats’ and censor him – CNBC
6/26 Special Counsel Mueller to testify before House on Trump Russia probe – CNBC
6/26 MSM silent after Google election meddling bombshell – Zero Hedge

6/26 More than 500 arrested after protests as India water crisis worsens – CNN
Water is going to be big news for many decades to come.

Video: 200 Israeli Nuclear Weapons Targeted against Iran - Global ...
Jun 19, 2019 - Video: 200 Israeli Nuclear Weapons Targeted against Iran ..

President Donald Trump on Tuesday suggested that the US is "not going to need an exit strategy" if war broke out with Iran.
That is very true. All the oil shipping points would be closed. Much of Iran and Saudi would be in flames. Insurance companies would refuse to insure cargoes. Hezbollah and the IRGC would overrun israel. Nuclear winter would add to the already present global cooling.
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Old 06-27-2019, 02:15 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Web 3.0,,, emerging cryptos,,, CB control of cryptos

As more and more payment is made electronically, we slide ever-closer to a cashless society. The banks want a cashless society so that ALL wealth is stored with them. The State wants a cashless society so that all transactions can be audited by them.
Armstrong has a report sector just on the State's hunt for taxes.
This cashless society would / will need some kind of baseline token of exchange value. The bankers and the State are fighting any connection with gold. They want some sort of crypto. The banks originate most of the debt-denominated "wealth" and, they want to keep it that way. ALL new money is first run through their greedy fingers.

The emerging crypto systems are created to maintain private / sovereign bank control of wealth exchange with the bankers still taking a big cut.
Here is a must-read article from Ellen Brown where she clearly explains how the banks plan to maintain their parasitism on all transactions. She also explains how payment systems in China do NOT involve this parasitism.

"According to Ivanov, who has been labeled by some as a Russian ‘cryptobillionaire,’ we are currently at the stage of developing a new generation of internet.

“We are already engaged in Web 3.0 technologies. They combine different blockchain-based technologies. This revolution is taking place rather slowly, but it is already beginning, and we want to stake this niche in Russia,” he said."

Milton Friedman talks about how the world economy works without government.

6/27 Bitcoin has quadrupled in value in six months – Mashable
BTC is good for speculation for some people but, it just lacks stability.
Charles Hugh Smith writes Local Government Is an Engine of Inflation
The blob State generally expands without limit. It taxes and taxes.
"Since personnel costs are 70+% of city and county budgets, those ever-increasing payroll, pension and benefits costs are the key driver of budgets expanding."
While Smith looks at government as an engine of inflation, this is the wrong way to look at things. The more money that the blob state sucks out of the producing economy, the more that it causes deflation of the rest of the economy. California is now owed more than $10 billion in unpaid fines. People just don't have the money to satisfy the demands of the blob State.
6/27 As Democrats push a “wealth tax,” here’s why other countries got rid of it – Mises
6/27 New software glitch found on 737 Max that results in “uncontrollable nosedives” – ZH

That's what happens when you cut corners. I have a friend who was head of R&D at Rockwell. Rockwell clearly told NASA NOT to launch if it was too cold. On launch day, it was too cold. The NASA people said "we need to take off our engineering hats and, put on our public relations hats". So, the shuttle blew up.
6/27 Colorado’s snowpack is 40 times normal after rare summer solstice dump – Stamford
A good, warm rain will fix that.
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Old 06-28-2019, 02:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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BTC,,,, more recession warnings

The Swiss plan to pull the plug on their financial treaties with the EU.
Britain has been trying to do the same.
6/27 Boris Johnson: odds of no-deal Brexit are ‘a million-to-one against’ – Guardian
We all know that bitcoin is better than gold. It goes up faster.
6/27 Bitcoin has quadrupled in value in six months – Mashable
6/27 Bitcoin meets gravity – Seven Figure Publishing


The SDR didn't fly because nobody wanted that garbage. They are trying a different angle of attack.
100% of the experts say that the economy is doing well. The working people,,,, not so good.

Here is one takeaway from the debates.
Tulsi Gabbard is campaigning against more wars.
Treasonous Trump;
Trump Rejected Attacking Iran 'We Don't Need Any More Wars'
6/27 Facebook to unmask ‘hate speech’ suspects in France – Zero Hedge
Just for the record, I hate facebook.
6/27 Bob Pisani: earnings this year may end up flat and that’s a problem – CNBC
Yep, might as well buy gold.
6/27 Global carmageddon continues: Ford set to slash 12,000 jobs across Europe – ZH
6/27 Goldman warns risk of market crash is highest since the financial crisis – ZH

How very strange. Consumption is falling even though the stock market is at all-time highs.
They got 40 times the normal amount of snow in Colorado. Some of it seems to have made it's way to London.
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Old 06-28-2019, 03:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Robbed by finance,,, capital flight,,, OTHER indicators

The CBs created about $250 trillion of new debt money. The plan was for this money to seep into all markets and raise up everything. But, with mountains of new money, how could money command an interest cost? Money renters are faced with loaning out their money for 100 years at 1 %.
"Why would anyone in their right mind buy a 100-year bond for 1%? The buyers appear to be pension funds who MUST own government debt as a matter of law."
"There is a serious problem brewing where as a matter of law pension fund must buy government paper and at low rates, the pension funds face massive failures going into the next 6 years."

Armstrong, (Germany and Italy are both crashing) and "YEP, Turkey has a very bad smell under it… Some European banks exposure to Turkey is going to result in them getting their arses kicked. Just add in ECB stupid policy to help the problem… How that ex G Sachs person was named ECB head and there isn’t/hasn’t been a revolve from European banks towards HIM I’LL NEVER KNOW… THEY are asleep at the wheel over there in Euroland MA (and not just in Europe I might add.. try Australia also), Europeans sending billions to US of A only goes to show some investors know the game is up in Europe ..and now lies eco ruins and perhaps WAR."
The take away is; the stupider the government is, the more capital flight to other jurisdictions like America and Russia. The more capital flight, the more QE is needed to keep things going.

The Daily Reckoning has good, informative articles that are easy to read and understand.
You should read the whole article.
"Since 1990, they conclude…

The financial sector has drained as much as $22 trillion from the United States economy:

What has this flawed financial system cost the U.S. economy?… We estimate these costs by analyzing three components: (1) rents, or excess profits; (2) misallocation costs, or the price of diverting resources away from nonfinancial activities and (3) crisis costs, meaning the cost of the 2008 financial crisis. Adding these together, we estimate that the financial system will impose an excess cost of as much as $22.7 trillion between 1990 and 2023, making finance in its current form a net drag on the American economy."

“Given the finite ability to service debt outstanding… future economic growth, if we are to have it, will need to be based largely on gains in productivity.”
Ten percent of GDP in 1970, the finance industry grew to 20% of GDP by 2010… like weeds in an abandoned factory.
And like spreading weeds, finance choked the path of labor…
The bottom 90% of American earners advanced steadily from the early 1940s through the early 1970s."

THEN we left the gold standard and, finance was able to create almost unlimited debt. This new debt money was channelled to money renters who were able to front-run everything we buy. Finance didn't so much choke off labor. Finance choked off purchasing power.

"A liberated Federal Reserve finally broke loose from its golden shackles… spread its nets… and ensnared the nation in debt.

Michael Lebowitz of Real Investment Advice:

The stagnation of productivity growth started in the early 1970s. To be precise it was the result, in part, of the removal of the gold standard and the resulting freedom the Fed was granted to foster more debt… Over the last 30 years the economy has relied more upon debt growth and less on productivity to generate economic activity."
Keep in mind that most of the gains in productivity were the result of automation. Productivity has grown quite a lot but, this didn't do anything for wages. With falling / static wages combined with price inflation, consumption would be expected to fall. This was forestalled by increasing credit. Hence, the growth in the finance industry. We have reached credit saturation and, there is no growth on the horizon. FED GOV takes over consumption to make up the difference. Now, FED GOV is debt saturated.

Hussman Funds famously crashed because they were looking at fundamentals that have been reliable indicators over history. The world has never had endless mountains of debt money and; as it turned out, this was a game changer.
"Because of their reliability across history, we prioritized those syndromes following our 2009-2010 stress-testing exercise against Depression-era data. In hindsight, amid the novelty of quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policy, our pre-emptive bearish response to those “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” syndromes turned out to be detrimental. No incremental adaptation was enough until I threw my hands up in late-2017 and completely abandoned the notion that it was still possible to define any “limit” to speculation.

Since then, our requirement has been straightforward: Regardless of how extreme valuations or other conditions might become, we will defer adopting or amplifying a “bearish” investment outlook unless our measures of internals have explicitly deteriorated"
Hussman has a set of internals that do a much better job of predictions in the debt-money enviornment.

6/28 Albert Edwards: This was the final recessionary shoe, and it has now fallen – ZH
6/28 Tulsi Gabbard wrecks Dems with powerful anti-war debate answers – Reason

There is speculation that the Chinese Yuan could displace the U.S. dollar. Not going to happen any time soon. Capital flight is eating them up.

Bitcoin Is All About Chinese Capital Flight - Forbes
Trade war triggers capital flight - South China Morning Post
China's Capital Outflows Are Suddenly Soaring Again... And Why This ...
Quiet capital flight dents China's sway as $1.2tn 'disappears' - Nikkei .
China constricts capital outflows with eye on yuan stability - Reuters

China is trying to conquer 'The Impossible Trinity': an economic puzzle no-one has ever solved
NOBODY can legislate stability and confidence. China is cracking down on Hong Kong. That, by itself will reduce confidence and, there is a lot fo money in Hong Kong.
So, while stock market fundamentals have deteriorated greatly in American markets, there are other important markers that are very important.
"unless our measures of internals have explicitly deteriorated"
The Euro crashes, capital flees.
The Yuan thrashes, capital flees.
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Old 06-29-2019, 03:59 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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What DIDN'T Wall street destroy?

The markets are demanding a big rate cut BUT, a rate cut makes U.S. debt less attractive to fleeing capital.
“Chair Powell will have to thread the needle in sounding sanguine on the outlook, but also discuss that the Fed is ready to ease in order to make sure the recovery continues,” Bank of America analysts wrote June 14."
Powell has to jawbone the markets. If you can't dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your BS.

"The erosion of much of the American industrial and defense industrial base proceeded like Lucent. First, in the 1980s and 1990s, Wall Street financiers focused on short-term profits, market power, and executive pay-outs over core competencies like research and production, often rolling an industry up into a monopoly producer. Then, in the 2000s, they offshored production to the lowest cost producer. This finance-centric approach opened the door to the Chinese government’s ability to strategically pick off industrial capacity by subsidizing its producers. Hand over cash to Wall Street, and China could get the American crown jewels."

"This loss goes well beyond telecom equipment. Talking to small manufacturers and distributors who operate in the guts of our industrial systems offers a perspective on the danger of this process of financial predation and offshoring. ""The United States has, for instance, lost much of its fasteners and casting industries, which are key inputs to virtually every industrial product"
"Hickey told a story of how the United States is even losing its submarine fleet. He had a conversation with an admiral in charge of the U.S. sub fleet at the commissioning of the USS Illinois, a Virginia-class attack submarine, who complained that the United States was retiring three worn-out boats a year, but could only build one and a half in that time. The Trump military budget has boosted funding to build two a year, but the United States no longer has the capacity to do high quality castings to build any more than that. The supply chain that could support such surge production should be in the commercial world, but it has been offshored to China."

6/28 Blain: “the group photo for the G20 looks line a line up for a Tarantino film” – Zero Hedge
6/28 Bank of Japan board debates more easing at June meet – Reuters
6/28 New-vehicle sales drop to where they were 20 years ago – Wolf Street

Just a temporary glitch.
6/28 UMich confidence hovers near record highs as business sentiment collapses – ZH
Just a temporary glitch. It will all collapse in the spring of 2020/
6/28 Deutsche Bank considers cutting up to 20,000 jobs – Yahoo
Deutsche bank is a zombie but, the jobs are real.
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Old 06-30-2019, 03:03 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Technocrats and bankers bring it all down

"According to the McKinsey Global Institute report on consumer financial services, these three service areas generate approximately $6.6 trillion in annual revenue and has tended to grow at a 6% compound annual rate over the preceding decade." (2011)
"The financial sector has drained as much as $22 trillion from the United States economy:"

The financial sector can't possibly function without growth. To find this growth, they have had to cannibalize the productive sector. They are responsible to a great extent for the outsourcing to China and India.
"The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests that financial services typically make up 20-30% of total service market revenue and about 20% of the total gross domestic product in developed economies."
They produce nothing but, account for 20% of GDP,,, even more in America.
"grow at a 6% compound annual rate"
This is a LOT of growth. It takes a LOT of liquidity. The CBs have concentrated on floating their cronies with fresh liquidity.,,,, Reportedly, the latest total has reached $247 trillion.
Reportedly,,," $184 trillion. Your share is $86,000"
Why is it YOUR share. You didn't incur it nor, did you benefit from it.
More importantly, you can't pay it. The CBs are on a treadmill with a 6% (compounding) incline.

Besides the major sins of the bankers, we have technocrats who plan to rule it all.
The Mind Of A Technocrat: Tech Oligarchs Are Worse Than The Robber Barons
You'll End Up With Kleptocrats Rather Than Technocrats
Global Research has an excellent article.
The Rise of the Technocrats - Project MUSE - Johns Hopkins University
Are Technocrats Taking Over Our Democracies? | Gaia
Technocrats have taken over governments in Southern Europe.
Technocrats: Minds like machines - The Economist https://www.economist

The New Rulers Of The World - John Pilger

So, where does this liquidity come from?
Shadow banking is now a $52 trillion industry and posing risks

To the technocracy, only profits are important.
How Britain stole $45 trillion from India | Colonialism | Al Jazeera
New Study: Crime, Corruption, Tax Evasion Drained a Record US ...
Dec 15, 2014 - US$6.6 Trillion Stolen from Developing World from 2003-2012
Concerns mount over reckless 2008-style lending in the $52 trillion shadow banking system.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk › Business
2 days ago

Outsourcing to China Cost U.S. 3.2 Million Jobs Since 2001 | Data ...
https://www.usnews.com › Civic › Data Mine Dec 11, 2014

"How many jobs are outsourced by the U.S. each year?
Pinning down the exact number of jobs that are moved overseas each year is difficult. It's estimated that 300,000 positions are outsourced annually. "
"Wages for outsourced workers vary widely by industry and by the country where they're employed. In the manufacturing industry, for example, Chinese workers make an average of $1.36 per hour, compared to $23.32 for U.S.-based employees. "

There you have it,,, right there. This caused a massive deflation of American aggregate purchasing power. 95 million not in the workforce. Finance needs to grow without interruption. The CBs need to print without interruption.

The technocrats have taken over because of the leverage they possess. They openly (kindof) came out and said that they need to make sure that the Trump election mistake never gets repeated.
Wages / purchasing power has crashed in the West due to the predations of the bankers.
Globalism has benefited just SIX countries. Most bond markets have been destroyed. The bankers wanted instant shifting of capital. This shifting capital has destroyed almost all markets. There is just too much centralization. Armstrong expects that they will NEVER try to stop the crash. "They" expect to just pick up the pieces. "They" hope for the SDR or a State-run crypto currency.

" Fox Business: “Dow Celebrates Best June in 81 years, S&P Best in 64 Years.” USAToday: “Stocks Post Best 1st Half Since 1997.” Newsmax: “Wall Street Soars 18%, Global Stocks Surge $18T in 1st Half.”
Bloomberg headline (Gowri Gurumurthy): “Junk Sales Hit 21-Month High as Issuers Lock in Lower Rates.” Junk issuance jumped to $28 billion in June, following May’s $26 billion. Year-to-date issuance of $130 billion is running 18% above comparable 2018. "
Party on Wayne !

Next stop, frugality.
6/29 Los Angeles seeks record setting solar power price under 2¢/kwh – PV Magazine
6/29 FT’s Jemima Kelly thrashes Facebook’s “crypto” project – Phil’s Stock World
FT is a mouthpiece for many of the elite.
6/29 Iran seizes 1,000 bitcoin mining machines after power spike – BBC
Just like the pot growers who attracted the cops with their electric bill.

America's control of the IMF and Swift gives them a LOT of leverage worldwide.
6/29 EU launches system to circumvent swift and Iran sanctions – Zero Hedge
China rejects US 'sanctions' on Iran oil vows to protect its energy security

Pox Americana has crashed SWIFT trying to block Iranian oil from the markets.
6/29 U.S. is heading to a future of zero interest rates forever – Bloomberg
6/29 Wall Street wraps up its best June in decades as G20 convenes – Reuters
6/29 Today’s Wall Street has all the hallmarks of tulip mania – Wall St On Parade
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Old 07-01-2019, 03:19 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Avoiding sanctions,, moral decay,,gold & BTC

Indian politics, "Furthermore, according to the Metals Focus Consultancy, they forecast even stronger Indian silver demand in 2019 due to rural Indians spending their “Cash Handouts” from the government to assist local economies ahead of the President’s election. "
Saudi and israel have pushed America to attack and sanction Iran. This has resulted in Europe rejecting American demands to form an attack coalition. It is also causing a rejection of SWIFT and the IMF. It is causing German to move closer to Russia and, depend on Russian energy. Europe desperately needs Nordstream. This may have been Trump's plan all along. Get Western Europe and Eastern Europe so economically entangled that war would be out of the question.

Fracking, "Still, the shale sector was unprofitable at roughly those levels in the first quarter, and by all accounts, drillers continue to burn through cash. In fact, according to Rystad Energy, the return on investment from oil and gas wells in the Permian peaked in 2017."
Here is an excellent article from Charles Hugh Smith Morality and decay.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Following in Rome's Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Inequality

6/30 More S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q2 – Factset
Well, if earnings per share is negative, you might as well buy gold.
Keep in mind that $trillions in stock buybacks was done specifically to raise EPS.
6/30 Pension “death spiral” crisis reaching fever-pitch in the US – Zero Hedge
With a total of unfunded state liabilities reaching $213 trillion, this comes as no surprise.
6/30 Dovish central banks to push Asian bond yields lower – Reuters
Gotta keep the capital flight flowing.
6/29 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot – CNBC
Well, if earnings are negative, the plane is out of gas.

Forbes, "It's no coincidence that gold and bitcoin are both taking off this year."
6/30 Crypto exchange and XRP refuge Bitsane vanishes, scamming 246,000 users – Forbes
6/30 Dutch PM panics as Italy risks eurozone meltdown ‘they can’t escape!’ – Express
Panic early and, avoid the rush.
6/30 What America needs is a paradigm shift – FFF
Don't worry. That is exactly what America is going to get. When peak-cheap-oil finally sets in.
6/30 World’s largest solar power plant switched on – Forbes
It was switched on 11 billion years ago.
6/30 The forever war is so normalized that opposing it is “isolationism” – Zero Hedge

Iran on EU Trade Mechanism to Bypass US Sanctions - 'Beautiful Car Without Fuel'

Tehran Mocks 'Totally Useless' US Sanctions as Europe's Iran Trade Mechanism Comes Online

Last edited by Danny B; 07-01-2019 at 03:23 AM. Reason: spelling, of course
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Old 07-01-2019, 02:56 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Slipping confidence,,, Dems and war

The whole system depends on confidence AND greed. Everybody wants a chunk of the $trillions that the CBs are pumping in. The CBs have tried to make the situation so that there is no alternative TINA. They pumped liquidity into all the markets. Various corporations used $trillions to buy back stock so that there would be fewer shares outstanding. Earnings-per-share would go up even if gross earnings went down. Bonuses would get bigger. This sleight of hand, combined with capital inflows (from capital flight), has kept markets looking far better than fundamentals would indicate.
John Hussman Phd was focused on fundamentals alone and, lost a LOT of money for his clients. He finally focused on "other" factors and, got a more accurate picture.
U.S. Stocks Still Look Better Than Anywhere Else - Bloomberg

Jun 3, 2019 -

Just the same, these other factors have to deteriorate eventually. As they deteriorate, the money-renters stop looking for yield and, start trying to protect their principle. Money flees markets that have no future earnings. Since Russia already had their financial collapse, they are seeing inflows.
"Russia recorded a capital and financial account surplus of 31354.85 USD Million in the first quarter of 2019. Capital Flows in Russia averaged 9317.55 USD Million from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 33092.79 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2018"
Gold has gone up quite a bit as investors try to protect their principle.

7/01 Only 12% of Vancouver families can afford an average home – HuffPost
7/01 SoCal homes available for sale soar by 37 percent y-o-y – Dr. Housing Bubble

As socialism bites, people try to get out. Same in Illinois. As taxes go, your home loses market value.
7/01 “Wealthy” Chicago households on the hook for millions in pension debt – Wirepoints

7/01 Steve Forbes urges facebook to link its cryptocurrency to a fixed weight of gold – GATA
Nope, it's linked to currencies and treasury bonds. You can NOT have your transactional currency the same as your store-of-value. The strongest currency goes into hiding and, is used as a store of value. If the Libra was locked to a weight of gold, it would be stashed away and not circulate. The Libra looks to be nothing more than an electronic SDR. It would ultimately be controlled by the CBs.

6/30 Dutch PM panics as Italy risks eurozone meltdown ‘they can’t escape!’ – Express They were warned back in 1989.
7/01 Only central banks could handle recent losses on gold futures sales, Turk says – GATA
The CBs hate gold because it is an alternative to their fiat paper. They did everything that they could to drive it down. Many of them have thrown in the towel and, are now buyers. Keep in mind that they can just create new liquidity and buy gold for free. They want to hold gold but, at the same time, they don't want CB buying to drive up the price and attractiveness.
7/01 Central banks increased gold purchases by 74% in 2018 – MunKnee
7/01 Dow futures surge after Trump and Xi agree not to impose more tariffs – CNBC
The existing tariffs are quite enough to crash China.

"Zombie companies in China's heavy industries are serviced by networks of ... calculated that zombie companies accounted for 9 per cent of China's total corporate debt. ..."
"The Federal Reserve Is About To Create A Lot More Zombies | The ...

6 days ago - The BIS says there are way too many zombies around, and they're killing the ... Lower interest rates are correlated with rising numbers of zombie companies, "
"The Zombie (Company) Apocalypse Is Here – OpEd – Eurasia Review"
Everybody is reluctant to kill off zombies because on the lost jobs.
7/01 America’s greatest bull market rages on against the dying light – Economic times
7/01 In a few hours, this will be the longest economic expansion on record – Zero Hedge

7/01 Hedge fund CIO: “the math does not work” – Zero Hedge

7/01 Global capex has ground to a halt – Zero Hedge
Nobody will spend money on capacity-expansion when falling wages reduce aggregate purchasing power. The banks demanded $trillions of new money so that they could restart loans and get the economy going again. They just deposited this money at the FED to collect a few points of interest. MUCH safer than loaning it out to support a shrinking economy.
7/01 BIS warns “slowdown is worsening and spreading” – Zero Hedge
WAIT, Wall st. is having their best time ever.
6/30 Deutsche Bank’s medieval medicine – Forbes
Deutsche bank is valued at $14 billion and, they are going to spin off a $50 billion "bad bank"

7/01 The Tulsi effect: forcing war onto the Democratic agenda – American Conservative
7/01 Progressives rage over the humanitarian border crisis – Vanity Fair

To the Dems, it doesn't matter how many millions we kill in MENA. Mexican kids should NOT have to sleep on the floor. We kill 1/2 million Iraqui kids.
"raq had been responsible for the deaths of more than 560,000 children ... Madeline Albright replied “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price – we think is worth it."
"US Has Killed More Than 20 Million People in 37 "Victim Nations ...
16 hours ago"

NOPE, we can't let the illegals suffer and discomfiture. DEMS, 2-faced killing 8astards.
"For the last century, America has been led by one war party or another.
Democratic administrations brought us into the evils of World War I (Woodrow Wilson), World War II (Franklin Delano Roosevelt), the Korean War (Harry S. Truman), and the Viet Nam War (Lyndon Baines Johnson)."
"A hundred years of wars have all but destroyed the American economy with taxes, while putting us in such a debt-debacle there is not enough money in the world to pay off the interest and principal the private and foreign shylocks claim we owe them.

Worse yet, these wars have taken a most savagely devastating toll on the personal freedoms of those whose nation was once the freest in the world."

"High-ranking Democratic Party officials have told associates of Lyndon LaRouche that the DLC was launched in order to stop the takeover of the party by LaRouche, as well as others who were working to bring the party back to its Franklin Roosevelt orientation.

- Bury FDR, Bring in the Bull Moose -

Roosevelt himself, speaking to labor, the poor, Depression-wrecked farmers, the forgotten man, in his 1933 Inaugural Address, blasted "the rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods.... Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion.... Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership.... [T]he money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization.... Our greatest task is to put people to work.... [T]here must be a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments; there must be an end to speculation with other people's money...."

"The DLC, sponsored by the criminal element Roosevelt denounced, has boldly announced their intention to bury Roosevelt's Democratic Party. In the September 1998 issue of their magazine, {Blueprint}, DLC strategists William Galston and Elaine Kamarck propounded certain supposed "Realities That Will Shape 21st Century Politics," whose main premise is that "the New Deal era has ended."

They declare that America has a "declining working class"--and that is good for politics. They celebrate the collapse of labor unions in the hyper-speculative New Economy, and applaud "the decline of organized labor as a force within the Democratic Party." The "Hollowing Out of the Middle Class" is "mostly for the better"; the "widening gap between the wealthy and the poor" is a good development!"

7/01 Ocasio-Cortez flames Ivanka Trump: We should have sent a ‘qualified diplomat’ – MW

Spoken by a former barista.
In a general sense, it wasn't mainstream Dems that endorsed the war party The party was hijacked by the DLC. In later years, it would be HRC that brought the focus of the Dems to a continual war footing.
Tulsi Gabbard is forcing the Dems to take an open stand on the wars.
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Old 07-02-2019, 02:57 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Falling consumption,,,BIS warning,,,MMT rises as confidence falls

During the 2008 crash, there were ships loaded with BMWs sitting off the ports that couldn't unload because there was no place to put the cars. The dealers weren't selling anything. Confidence was lost and, people were holding onto their money. This became self-reinforcing.
"A third of Americans say they’ve cut spending in the last year, and that percentage is about the same no matter the demographic, according to the Invest in You Spending Survey released on Monday."
"BIS Warns "Slowdown Is Worsening And Spreading" As Central Banks Run Out Of Ammo"
" this report too and the speech delivered alongside the Annual General Meeting in Basel by Agustin Carstens, will be summarily ignored by those who matter, until the next financial crisis strikes and everyone is shocked how there were no signals indicating the arrival of what will soon be the greatest financial catastrophe in world history."
" “The continuation of easy monetary conditions can support the economy, but make normalization more difficult, in particular through the impact on debt and the financial system,” the BIS warned."
So, get rid of the debt.

"a better mix is required between monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroprudential measures and structural reforms."
Ah yes, the MMT camel puts his nose in the tent.
"The possible costs arise mainly through financial channels. The historically low-for-long interest rates tend to compress banks' margins, lower profits and hence reduce banks' ability to build up capital, essential for a productive economy. "
Shifting money to the banks that can only come from ONE place,,,, the productive economy. Reducing the operating capital of industry AND the purchasing power of consumers will NOT rescue the economy. As we see right now, Wall St is having the most profitable time in history and main street is crashed
" These historically high debt levels limit the scope for households to drive economic activity." No kidding,, they can't buy any more Chinese junk.

"the leveraged loan market is now some USD 3 trillion in size, comparable to the collateralised debt obligations that amplified the subprime crisis. Structured products such as collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) have surged. Credit standards have been declining as investors have searched for yield"
The CBs pumped in $trillions to rescue the banks AND the State. The flood of money "lifted ALL boats". INCLUDING the leaky ones.
Those leaky boats are now called "zombies"
"Meanwhile, even as central bank ammunition has dwindled to almost nothing, global growth is slowing: "If anything, the slowdown appears to be worsening and spreading since the Report went to press. "
To a certain extent, those leaky zombies were floated to provide a continuation of employment.

Here is an article from Armstrong proving that NO NYC bank has ever been prosecuted for robbery. MUCH of America's financial capital is concentrated in NYC. What will happen in the inevitable melt down?
The article mentions something that I have written about before. NOBODY has any physical proof of ownership such as stock certificates. EVERYTHING is held in the name of Depository Trust Company (Cede & Co).
The physical certificates were held in a vault in NYC. The vault was left open as hurricane Sandy approached and, the certificates were mostly ruined. THEN, there was a fire.

'Wealthy' Chicago Households On Hook For $2 Million In Debt Each Under 'Progressive Solution' To Pension Crisis
Germany Plans to Cut Military Spending in 2020-2023 in Affront to US - Report
They shouldn't do that. You never know when France might invade again.

Iranian MP Warns 'Only Half an Hour Will Remain of Israel's Lifespan' if US Attacks Iran
3 years ago, Haaretz published an article that quoted the IDF and stated; Iran has 231,000 missiles that it can launch at israel. No amount of searching with google or Duckduckgo seems to turn up this article.
The current claim is that israel has 200 nukes that it can shoot at Iran. The IDF report states that israel can expect to receive 11,000 missiles a minute. Bummer

7/02 On a tiny, isolated island, USDA scientists prep for the pork-pocalypse – New Food
It was originally projected that China would need to cull 400 million hogs. Now, it is expected to get worse.
7/02 Georgia court system hit by ransomware attack – Zero Hedge
6/24 Riviera Beach pays $600,000 cyber ransom to regain data access – PBP

You have to admit that ransomware is an excellent business model.
7/02 New solar + battery price crushes fossil fuels, buries nuclear – Forbes
7/02 Bright futures: efficiency versus cost in solar cell production – Power Tech
7/02 A fine couple they are (wind and solar power) – Power Mag
7/02 UAE debuts the world’s largest individual solar power project – Engadget

I'll be very happy to see ALL fusion power die a gruesome death. There are 231,000 fuel rods in pools in America that must be maintained with no accidents. Japan is covered with stored radioactive material. Parts of Chernobyl are covered with 2 meter thick steel plates. The dirty material just keeps piling up.
If you read at Eagle Research, they have very interesting articles showing that; the flame from burning HHO gas can REMOVE the radioactivity from radioactive materials.

7/02 Construction spending unexpectedly weak; single-family down every month – Mish
Well, family formation is shrinking too.
7/02 Companies are warning that earnings are going to be brutal – CNBC
No kidding. Maybe it is tied to consumption. Buy gold if stocks have no earnings.
7/02 French bond yields slide below zero, hit all time record lows – Zero Hedge
France has long been out of compliance with EU debt rules.
7/02 Ron Paul: media and politicians ignore oncoming financial crisis – Eurasia Review
This was reported in Eurasia review. Don't expect it to be reported here.
7/02 Why wealth gap has grown despite record-long economic growth – AP
Yeah, really strange.
7/01 Morgan Stanley on trade truce: no real progress, downside risks remain – CNBC
Trump said, no new tariffs.

Here is a good article on contagion. Keep in mind that banks are free to lend OR, to not lend. In the 2008 crash, the overnight lending between banks came to a halt. Nobody knew which bank was solvent. Banks stretch out a lot and, often need some new funds to cover temporary shortages. If they can't get these funds, it sends ripples through the system. In the 2008 crash, The FED opened it's "overnight" window to make up for the lack of interbank lending.

"First it was China. The end of May saw the collapse of an obscure Inner Mongolian bank, Baoshang, which had about $90 billion in assets and which had seemed perfectly healthy.

Why it matters: The government blamed misappropriation of funds by the bank's owner, but the damage was done. The interbank lending market in China seized up, especially for smaller institutions.

Small and medium-sized Chinese banks are collectively as big as the large players, and they're very reliant on interbank funding. After Baoshang defaulted on its interbank obligations, it became very hard for smaller banks to convince larger ones that they were safe. The central bank ended up having to step in with $125 billion of emergency liquidity, "
You can see that confidence is all-important.
"Next came investment funds. The GAM Greensill Supply Chain Finance fund, in Switzerland, imploded in early June, followed in short succession by Neil Woodford’s Equity Income fund in the U.K. Then came French asset manager H20 Asset Management, running into similar problems.

Much like Chinese banks, funds that invest in illiquid securities suddenly find themselves under extreme scrutiny. Each bad apple seems to infect another."
You see the problem. So many financial instruments are illiquid if confidence goes away.

7/02 ‘Bitcoin investors will face FOLE, not FOMO’ says gold proponent Peter Schiff – Coinape Fear of losing EVERYTHING
7/02 Does Japan vindicate Modern Monetary Theory? – Project Syndicate Only to a certain point
7/01 It’s no bitcoin: Facebook’s libra currency is tied to government currencies – Mises
7/01 Laffer: Federal Reserve shouldn’t be independent from White House – NY Post
The MMT camel sticks his nose further into the tent
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Old 07-03-2019, 03:25 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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If the banks go up, everything else must go down.

Charles Hugh Smith' "The keys to understanding the concealed crisis of decline are purchasing power relative to wages/earnings--how many goods and services can wages buy? For the average American household, wages have risen modestly while the purchasing power of those wages has plummeted. "
"Bottom line: how much housing, higher education and well-being does the average wage buy now compared to decades past? Not much. The statistics are bleak: wages are basically unchanged from the high water mark 50 years ago, which coincidentally was also the high water mark of U.S. energy production until very recently. Adjusted for purchasing power and quality, the average paycheck buys far less than it did 50 years ago. "
So, what happened 50 years ago? That would be 1970, when the last link to the gold standard was broken. Who broke that link? It is attributed to Nixon But, his predecessors were the ones who ran up the bills and broke the bank. That would be the welfare-warfare state.
The rise of currency inflation has brought the greatest gains to the finance industry.

France recently discovered that they had been paying a salary to people who hadn't shown up for work since 1989.

7/02 Relief rally fades as growth fears loom – Reuters
Communication is just too good. Nobody is convinced.


Due to the increasing value of the dollar, world oil prices rose rather than fell relative to the price of OECD exports between 1980 and 1984. The real crude oil price of OECD countries increased by approximately 30% more than its counterpart for the USA. "
Energy is the master resource. Much of the prosperity in America is due to the fact that oil-priced in dollars gives us an advantage over most other countries. Fracking has lost $208 billion dollars and, is subsidised by the FED pumping up the junk bond market.
The FED continues to cheapen the value of the dollar. At the same time, America needs to hold down the price of oil. $10 dollar diesel fuel would cut way back on commerce.
America reached peak-cheap-oil decades ago. How long can it deflate the value of the dollar and still afford to buy oil?

7/02 US retailers demand an antitrust probe of Amazon and Google – Zero Hedge
Winner-take-all economic sounds OK, just like globalism sounds OK. It just doesn't work out in practice.
7/02 40% of global debt now delivers a negative yield – Kitco
What a mess !
7/02 Japan Inc’s inflation expectations stagnate, keep BOJ under pressure – Reuters
Pretty soon, the BOJ will have to print babies.
CBN news reports that separation of church and State is problematic for lefties in Calif.
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Old 07-04-2019, 09:55 PM
wayne.ct wayne.ct is offline
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Inflation, Interest rates and the FED rate

It is interesting to me how the different groups of people respond or react to the raw "information" that is broadcast concerning these three subjects.

The large percent of the population that have no reserves, savings and investments (cash based poor) added to the additional large part of the population that are in debt but have jobs or other regular income with which to make payments (debt-credit poor, negative net worth) comprise the first "group". This large group, I would say, have a common view of this subject. It makes up perhaps 80 to 95 percent of the U.S. population?

Their view? In general?
Inflation: Negatively affected but mostly ignored because it is "future"
Interest rates: They don't care as long as they are not "too painful"
FED rate: They don't care and don't feel any need to understand it.

Group 2: People with a positive net worth, debts (if any) are well within their ability to pay, not "tied" to the financial industry.

Their view?
Inflation? Not worried.
Interest rates? Can be managed.
FED rate: "Does not affect me"
Size of group? Hmmm... 1 to 10 percent? I dunno.

Group 3: Tied to the financial industry but "dependent"
Inflation? Very worried
Interest rates? Very worried
FED rate: True believers. In denial because the system is "failing"
Size of group? 10 percent?

Group 4: Tied to the financial industry but "in power", "controllers", "elite"
Inflation? "bring it on", afraid of deflation
Interest rates? Afraid of massive defaults if they get "too high"
FED rate? Worried that the "masses" will get spooked.
Size of group? very small.... Is this the 1%?

So, Is this a reasonable perspective on the situation?

It seems to me that as long as the first three groups don't rock the boat too much or "wake up" that this situation can go along for quite a while. And this mass of humanity is by and large apathetic.

I would like to think more about this and it is a problem to consider when reading some of your posts. Any other comments?
There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.
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Old 07-05-2019, 03:00 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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What happens when State finances collapse/

Wayne, your numbers all sound reasonable. I don't know because i follow data sets more than I do confidence levels in different cohorts. On the question of confidence, I can look around at the people I see. Los Angeles is a major port for the trans-pacific trade. Just L.A. and Long beach unload 54,000 containers a day. Much of this stuff is reworked and trans-shipped from here. I don't know what is going on in other places as far as first hand information.
As far as confidence, I frequently quote Martin Armstrong. I've cited his accuracy record MANY times. Armstrong calls for a collapse of American sovereign debt. This is a HUGE turning point in his models. Could he be wrong? Not very likely.
51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. 45 million receive direct assistance. If you assume a collapse down to the point where GOV can only spend what it takes in, much of that 51% is going to be $hit out of luck.
Projecting just this one data point means a collapse of commerce and society.
Mises said many years ago; "there is no escaping the final dissolution of a credit bubble."
Could he be wrong this time? Doubtful.

At the moment, it looks like Europe is going to go down in flames before America.
7/04 For the first time ever, German bund yields drop below the ECB’s deposit rate – ZH
7/04 UK likely to fall into recession after no-deal Brexit – Independent
7/04 “Sad” milestone as all Danish government bond yields dip below zero – Reuters
7/03 ECB comments knocks euro zone bond yields to fresh lows – Reuters
7/03 The politicians take charge at the ECB – Bloomberg

"Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi come the end of his term. Of course, the IMF has not been entirely supportive of Draghi’s policies. But she is predominantly a lawyer and does not have the experience in how markets function She has no idea of what she is walking into. The ECB cannot raise interest rates without blowing up the budgets in the EU and there is no way to stop Quantitative Easing as well."
"Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen was chosen for the commission presidency. Also based upon reliable inside sources, she is very anti-Russia and believes that war is justified. She seems to be a puppet for the neocons and is reported to be not a dynamic or independent thinker."
So the Eurozone ship is headed for the rocks and, they put the cook in charge as sailing master.
7/04 The EU has a new batch of unelected leaders – RT
Substitute "unqualified" for unelected.

As far as confidence levels, they just aren't tuned in to the actual situation. The post-war boom that America experienced is dying a hard, slow death in the minds of many people.
7/04 The manufacturing sector is rolling over but inventories keep piling up – Mish
7/04 New-vehicle sales fall to 1999 levels – Wolf Street

7/04 Yield curve craters – Seeking Alpha
7/04 Defensive stocks surge ahead of payrolls as entire Treasury curve inverts – ZH

Too many people are hyper-extending their "normalcy bias"
7/03 Gov. J.B. Pritzker says Illinois can’t take on Chicago’s public pension liabilities – CT
Chicago figured that the would get the state to cover their losses. Everybody thinks that somebody is going to pick up their tab.
The confidence level IS turning but, slowly.
7/03 40% of Americans think a recession is looming – SafeHaven
7/03 Small business employment collapses “like in march 2008” – Zero Hedge

I suspect that if every American was aware of the truth of the country's finance, there would eb a lot more preppers.

7/03 Italian socialist elected president of Europe’s parliament – Zero Hedge
7/04 American pride in political system hits new low – Gallup
Rep. Frederica Wilson demands prosecution for those who mock Congress online

Congressional approval is normally 20% or less. How do they figure that we have a democracy?

Kunstler was certain that congress would not drag Mueller in to testify BECAUSE republicans could ask him questions also. They are going to drag him in.
7/03 Stagecraft – James Howard Kunstler

"job to go and work as one of his researchers for the Club of Rome. He then said to me—and these were his exact words that I remember so clearly—‘You’ll be joining us at a very exciting time. We are creating a global environmental problem that’s going to frighten people into wanting global government.’ ”

“At the time,” Walker continued, “being a Green politician, I thought this was wonderful. I didn’t know the facts about Bilderberg, because this was before [British conspiracy researcher] David Icke [also a former Green Party member] started doing his research and other people started doing their research, to show that there’s a hidden tier of government above our elected governments.”

He went on to say that, before 1982, “Nobody mentioned manmade global warming. If anything, they were talking about a mini ice-age. And they were talking about acid rain. This was obviously when they started to get the idea that they could latch onto ‘global warming.’ ”

The latest research shows that global temperatures are most heavily influenced by cloud cover. In a few months, we enter solar cycle 25. The weather is going to get much more violent.

"Bitter Networks CBS, ABC, NBC, And MSNBC Refuse To Air Trump’s “Salute To America” 4th Of July Celebration"
They say that he has politicised the 4th of July.

The FED doesn't really have to print lots of money to cause inflation.
Armstrong, "ANSWER: Once upon a time before 1971, there used to be a difference between debt and cash. Government bonds were not acceptable for collateral. You could not borrow against them. You had to liquidate them. This is why they once believed that it was LESS INFLATIONARY to borrow than print."
"We have returned to that whereby TBills are a street name and are good collateral so they have become the equivalent of bearer bonds that merely serve the purpose of currency."
When we broke the last link to the gold standard, the FED was able to go crazy printing bonds. They didn't have to print currency to cause inflation. All these bonds were pumped through the bankers.
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Old 07-05-2019, 03:19 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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globalism = unworkable,,, trade deficits

Reportedly, Germany is collapsing because of the "green" agenda.
This includes their power grid.
Right now, Alaska has a terrible heat wave. What happens to Europe when it gets hit by another heat wave? They don't even have A.C. in many places? The unfolding of the next solar cycle is going to cause a lot of damage and distress.

"Allowing cash to die would be a grave mistake. A cashless society is a surveillance society. The recent round of protests in Hong Kong highlights exactly what we have to lose."
"This week, anti-extradition protests reached another crescendo,"
"In Hong Kong, most people use a contactless smart card called an "Octopus card"
"But no one used their Octopus card to get around Hong Kong during the protests. The risk was that a government could view the central database of Octopus transactions to unmask these democratic ne'er-do-wells. Traveling downtown during the height of the protests? You could get put on a list, even if you just happened to be in the area.
So the savvy subversives turned to cash instead."

The world is waking up to the fact that; you can't have production in one place and, consumption in another. Recently, Germany had a $1 trillion trade surplus and, the rest of the EU had a $1 trillion trade deficit. While things were good, German flew very high. When the rest of the EU ran out of money, even Germany fell. The same is true for China. They did very well until their customers ran out of money. Now, China is falling fast.
America has a common public debt market in the U.S. treasury. Armstrong warned the eurocrats back in 1997? that no common currency had ever survived unless the currency union had a common debt union. Being politicians (idiots) they persisted and, went ahead with their plans to force the union. (keep voting until you get it right)

This whole globalism scheme has thrown markets way out of balance. China doesn't want to change because they benefited so much. The Eurozone doesn't want to change because they are pig-headed politicians who dream of a tightly controlled corporatocracy ruling all Europe. Commenting on Italy's huge deficit, "they" said that the Italians should become more like the Germans.

This imbalance is reflected in trade imbalances. The trade imbalances, specifically, the trade deficits, are making the system UNWORKABLE.
take a look at this chart,

"May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports.
May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.
The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion "
The FED can't stop printing or, we have to cut way back on imports.
"Deficits: Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1)."
I seriously doubt that globalism can be unravelled peacefully.

7/05 Time to end BoJ’s grand experiment? – Japan Times
This is no grand experiment. The BOJ is trying to save everything on the island.
7/05 Chicago’s Pritzker signs budget giving teachers a pension spike – PJ Media
Why not, Chicago is already bankrupt.
7/05 All this borrowing to consume is unsustainable and the bill is overdue – Claudio Grass
So, get rid of the military and, cut back on worthless expenditures.
7/05 US sees most layoffs since the financial crisis, many in retail jobs – USA Today
Thank Amazon.
Beijing insists all US tariffs should be removed for a trade deal to happen
Note to Xi, don't hold your breath.
'Architect of Austerity' George Osborne Aims to Replace Former IMF Chief Lagarde - Report
Why not? austerity has a proven track record of being completely destructive.

Globalist Tech Companies Appear To Be Poised To Boycott Trump Social Media Summit, Spox Silent
STUPID They seem to think that Trump and the FCC have no power over them. They could go to the summit and, argue their case for continued independence. Nope, they prefer to p[rove their stupidity. They viciously attack Trump, et al. They lie about EVERYTHING. They spy on everybody. They seem to think that they have too much popular support to get FED GOV to put a hex on them. WRONG, they don't have very much popular support at all.
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Old 07-06-2019, 04:54 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Gold and, the discipline of the printing press

To recap, at one time, the FED was constrained on how much currency it could print by the amount of gold in the Treasury. The private banks were constrained on how much credit they could create by the amount of reserves they held.
Thanks to the welfare-warfare State, gold was leaving the treasury at the rate of 100 tons a week in summer of 1971. When Britain notified that the treasury that they were going to pick up <3360> tons, Nixon slammed shut the gold window 4 days later. He was subsequently eviscerated. Once we were off the international gold standard, the FED was able to create as much debt paper as it wanted.

With the change in regulations, treasury bonds became "money". They could be used as collateral. Banks could buy treasury bonds without their working capital tied up in something that was not liquid. In essence, this doubled the "money" in circulation as far as FED created "money". The FED also sent lots of "money" to the private bankers to be held as excess reserves. The FED paid interest on these reserves,,, free interest paid on the free money.
In addition to FED created free money, the banks took your savings to buy up everything and, speculate against the final consumer. When your savings were not enough to keep all of this going, they were given trainloads of fresh money. This meant that they didn't have to pay interest to get your savings.
No wonder Wall St. is having the Best time in history.
FED GOV is deathly afraid of a collapse so, they go along with the printing.
Everybody is caught in a trap that originated when the constraints of gold were removed.
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Old 07-07-2019, 03:26 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Wealth sequestration / destruction is crashing

J.M. Keynes aid in 1930 that; in the time of his grandchildren, we would be so rich that we would only need to work 15 hours a week. The people of the world would have so much accumulated wealth that they wouldn't need to work very much. This is very problematic if people only generate the productivity needed to maintain themselves.
I've listed the various ways that the bankers inflate the currency to siphon off it's value for themselves. Since they are always first in line at the printing press, price inflation does not bother them. They take all that wet-ink money and, buy up everything that you need. They are always ahead of the game and, price inflation boosts the nominal value of the assets they hold.
Well, there are just too many of them and, they got too greedy. 95 million Americans of working age are not in the workforce. The rest are working at the global mean wage.
The income just isn't there for the banks anymore. The CBs pump in $trillions to keep confidence up.

I suppose that there was some way that we still could have held on to all that accumulated wealth that America had produced.... even after the bankers robbed us.

Shumpeter came up with the idea of "creative destruction" as a means to keep everybody working. If you don't continue to produce for the bankers and bureaucrats, they might go hungry. We are directly taxed heavily. We also pay heavily for the inflation-tax.
The Grace Commission created by Ronald Reagan reported that not one dime of federal tax money went to the FED GOV. Various other high level bankers and politicians have said that the GOV does not need to tax.

Walter Burien has completely proved that the FED GOV does NOT need to tax. Their own financial reports prove that they don't need the money. This is also true for much of non-FED GOV.
CAFR1 Home Page

The bankers and bureaucrats take all our money one way or another. The CAFR reports show that the money is just stuffed off to the side.
The State/military takes a lot of money too. Rather than producing lasting wealth, they spend the money to produce things to later blow them up.

"A baseline survey to assess the vulnerability of the military’s more than 7,000 bases, installations and other facilities is nearly complete"
" The global shipping and aviation on which peak profit-making depends is, like the military, exempt from the Paris Accords. "
" US empire is the world’s largest consumer of fossil fuels or because the same military is the enforcer of the global fossil fuel regime "
The wealth that we produced has to be constantly fleeced and / or destroyed
NOBODY complains as the military budget rises past $1 trillion. This $ 1 trillion serves 2 purposes. It keeps contractors and soldiers working. It allows the destruction of $trillions of would-be wealth.
The Report From Iron Mountain states that peace must NOT be allowed to break out at any cost. We build to destroy.
The CAFR report from GOV REPORTS shows that <40,000> GOV entities are collectively holding in excess of $200 trillion. The University of California alone system reports that it has $90.1 billion. This wealth accumulates and compounds.
BUT, Wall Street has sucked out $22 trillion since 1970. Aggregate wages have crashed and the financial services sector needs at least 6% growth a year.
MMT and UBI are a hoped-for solution. The financial sector is trying to suck ever-more blood from a shrinking / dying host
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Old 07-07-2019, 04:17 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Capital inflows,,, Iran & the dollar,,, nat gas

There are a couple good articles on our bizarre markets.
"According to Bloomberg, the amount of negative-yielding debt globally jumped Thursday to a record $13.4 TN. Rising almost $2.2 TN over the past "
"However, inflows to bonds were truly out of this world with over $25 billion –a more than 45% increase over the prior record from October of 2014."
"it’s worth noting M2 “money supply” has surged almost $210 billion over the past six weeks (up $638bn y-o-y) to a record $14.773 TN."
" outstanding Commercial Paper has jumped almost $80 billion in five weeks to an eight-year high $1.164 TN. Where’s all this “money” coming from?"
A fair amount of it si coming from European capital flight.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Abject Monetary Disorder

"GDP is slowing. Earnings warnings issued by publicly-traded companies are at a 13-year high. The most reliable recession predictor of the past 50 years, an inverted US Treasury curve, has been in place for the past quarter.

Yet the major stock indices hit all-time highs earlier this week. And every one of the 38 assets in the broad-based asset basket tracked by Deutsche Bank was up for the month of June — something that has never happened in the 150 years prior to 2019."
"More than 170 U.S. shale companies have declared bankruptcy since 2015, affecting nearly $100 billion in debt, according to Haynes and Boone. There have been an estimated 8 bankruptcies already this year, with some $3 billion in debt restructured."

Armstrong, "But much the real trend driving the inverted yield curve is capital inflows seeking long-term yields. Much of the capital has moved in from Europe. In addition, the amount of money in fixed-income exchange-traded funds passed $1 trillion last month, an ascendance that has reshaped the market in which countries and companies raise money to pay their bills. This has also altered the yield-curve. These forces have changed the dynamics of the marketplace and the traditional inverted yield curve does not necessarily mean what it once did "
Everybody is pointing at the yield curve inversion as an inflexible indicator of recession. With huge capital flight, this is no longer true.

RenTech Pulls Cash From Deutsche Bank As Insider Warns Of "Lehman-Style" Scene
This is probably the LAST nail in the cofin for Deutsche bank.
Mexico Murder Rate Soars To Ave 94 Per Day
How Mexico Became the World's Second Largest Opium Producer

7/06 New lows in Germany lead the rest of the world down – Alhambra Partners
7/06 Ten big steps down the road to recession – Great Recession
7/06 Three job-market data points investors are overlooking – The Street
7/05 It wasn’t all great news: multiple jobholders soar to record high – Zero Hedge

7/06 Fed dumps MBS at record pace, exceeding “cap” for first time – Wolf Street
So, the FED is dumping mortgage backed securities. I wonder why?
7/06 Bitcoin uses more energy than the whole of Switzerland – and it’s getting worse – Ind
7/06 State of Indiana argues in Supreme Court for right to seize anything – ZH

Well, of course.

"For almost two centuries, Sterling reigned supreme as the world's reserve currency, propping up the vast British Empire which was the world's superpower during the 19th century and the early 20th. Then, in the span of just a few months, everything changed and the US Dollar took over after a series of dramatic events."
"Chris Andrew describe the series of events in which Iran and its oil reserves proved to be the final nail in the coffin of sterling and the British Empire. However, what is far more interesting, is their suggestion that the current tensions between Washington and Tehran, and what happens to Iranian gas, could also be the event that results in the end of the dollar's own reserve status."

"But American oil partnerships in Venezuela and Arabia, based on a 50/50 US/local ownership rule, made Britain’s 70/30 structure in Iran untenable. Iranian nationalists now started to demand, and ultimately obtain, full control of their natural resource.

With the nationalisation of the AIOC (Anglo Iranian Oil Company), Britain was deprived of sterling oil, and thus became utterly dependent on the Americans to earn enough dollars to pay for their energy. Immediately this started a rapid exodus from holding sterling as a settlement currency and reserve. Iranian oil joined its other dollar-denominated brethren.

Fast forward 70 years and once again Iran stands at the fulcrum of how the energy source of the future is to be priced."
"Britain’s loss of sterling- denominated oil was the final nail in the coffin of sterling being a global currency. Its collapse was imperceptible and then a precipice.

As of today the US finds itself in a similar position as it remains to be seen what currency natural gas will be priced in. The world is transitioning from oil to gas, as, 70 years ago it had transitioned from coal to oil; once again Iran holds the key for this critical resource.

Today, natural gas is priced in US dollars in America, in euros for Russian gas in Europe, in renminbis for Russian gas in China, and US dollars for Qatari gas. It shall be the pricing of Iran’s massive reserve of gas that will determine the future global currency denominator of this energy source."

Pox Americana is demanding that Europe ignore and abandon the Russian gas line Nordstream. We demand that the European buy much more expensive American gas.
The Europeans have SPECIFICALLY designed alternatives to SWIFT so that they could buy Iranian and Russian gas.
So, what is a hegemon to do? Simple, find some pretext for war..

Bolton Welcomes UK Seizure of Tanker Containing Iranian Oil
Yeah, I bet he does.. He's worse than McCain.
Syria & Iran To Defy Sanctions By Building Railway From Tehran To Mediterranean
The article mentions that israel will probably bomb the railway.
Iran Calls Seizure of Its Tanker Maritime Piracy
Bolton is praying that Iran does something stupid.

America has a gas problem.
"In its relentless pursuit of oil, the shale industry continues to burn more and more gas into the air.

The rate of flaring in the Permian basin reached a record high in the first three months of this year, averaging 661 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd), according to Rystad Energy. That is more than double the amount of flaring for the same period from a year earlier.

There is little chance of a reduction in the next few months. “We anticipate that basin-wide flaring will stay above 650 MMcfd"
They don't even mention the Eagle Ford basin.
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Old 07-07-2019, 01:44 PM
wayne.ct wayne.ct is offline
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Negative Interest Rates

The elites seem to have a problem in that they must pay dearly to keep the EU operating. I don't know for sure but someone must be keeping track of the spread between keeping "money" in EU banks vs. US banks. The EU elites see their capital eroding and as much as possible "sell" Euros and "buy" USD. The US elites see their capital eroding as interest rates go up and their bonds collapse. The FED can't raise rates because they will (in their view) collapse the economy and start a revolution. The situation grinds forward with inflation in the US and depression in the EU (not to mention Japan) meaning anyone with sense (and money) is saving not spending.

Result? EU goes down first then US suffers inflation. Until then, US holds its own.

There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.
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Old 07-07-2019, 03:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Print money with no plan B,,, rain & food

Wayne, I'm surprised that more people are not contributing here,,, as you are.
I can't possibly have all the info,,, all the insight.
Instant global transfer of jobs and capital has wreaked havoc on all but a few. BUT, as globalism selected a few winners, it eventually destroyed the buying power of the losers. The winners like China and Germany are now crashing because their customers are broke. I firmly believe that the vast majority of people are NOT taking this seriously enough. The PTB do not have a CLUE of how to boot up a new system. We also have to consider that part of the PTB who want to do a gross population reduction.
How can we have a crash of credit markets and NOT have a crash of carbon energy deliveries? How can we have a crash of Sovereign debt and NOT have a crash in the part of the population who depend on State money?
As our magnetosphere weakens, the increased cosmic ray bombardment will cause a big increase in precipitation and cloud cover. Our albedo will increase. Cooling and crop destruction will increase.
Irrigated agriculture represents 20 percent of the total cultivated land, but contributes 40 percent of the total food produced worldwide.
So, 80% of our cultivated land depends on reliable rain,,,, NOT floods.
Amazon, "The researchers also looked at the severity and duration of floods and found that extreme floods have tended to be higher and longer-lasting, with water levels over 97.5 feet for more than 70 days occurring once every three years, compared to once every 50 years in the 1900s."

"More records for both wet and dry weather are being set around the globe, often with disastrous consequences for the people facing such extremes, according to a study published Wednesday that offered new evidence of climate change’s impacts in the here and now.

Extreme rainfall, and the extreme lack of it, affects untold numbers of people"
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Old 07-07-2019, 04:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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How long can printing hold things together?

I found another one of those articles that should be read in it's entirety. I will cite and comment on it though.

There are growing signs that the global economic slowdown is for real. As was the case in 1929, the combination of the peak of the credit cycle coupled with trade protectionism in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act are similar conditions to those of today and potentially pose a serious economic challenge to the post-Bretton Woods fiat currency system. Therefore, we must consider the consequences if monetary policy (printing) fails to contain the developing recession and it turns into a full-blown slump. Complacency over broken markets is no longer an option, with rising prices for gold and bitcoin signalling the prospect of a new round of currency debasement (printing)to avoid market distortions unwinding. This article shows why this outcome could undermine fiat currencies entirely and looks at the alternatives of bitcoin and gold in this context.
$9 Million Lost Each Day In Cryptocurrency Scams - Investopedia
Crime still plagues cryptocurrencies; $1.7 billion was stolen last year

Never in all recorded history have financial markets been so distorted everywhere. In our lifetimes we have seen the USSR and also China under Mao attempt to do without markets altogether and fail, having starved and slaughtered millions of their citizens in the process. The Romans started a long period of currency debasement, lasting from Nero to Diocletian, who wrote prices in stone (the origin of the phrase) in a vain attempt to control them. While the Roman Empire was the known world at the time, it was essentially restricted to the Mediterranean and Europe. Subsequently, there have been over fifty instances recorded of complete monetary collapse, the vast majority in the last hundred years, which have led to the breakdown of every society involved.[i]And now we could be facing a global totality, the grand-daddy of them all.
The last 100 years has seen a huge rise in the unconstrained fractional reserve banking. If a little is good,,,, then more must be better.

We have become inured to cycles of credit expansion, driven by fractional reserve banking at least since the Bank Charter Act of 1844, which legalised fractional reserve banking. Extra impetus was given by central banks from the 1920s onwards.
Absolutely,, the wars must go on.

In Denmark, mortgage lenders are even offering negative-yield mortgages: in other words, Danes are being paid to take out loans with negative interest rates.
The French government has debts roughly equal to France’s GDP and by any analysis is not a very good credit risk, but it is now being paid by lenders to borrow. Only forty per cent of her economy is the productive tax base
Investors, particularly pension funds and insurance companies are forced by their regulators to invest nearly all their funds in regulated investments. Their compliance officers, who are effectively state-sponsored bureaucrats, control the investment decision process.
Additionally, with their highly-geared balance sheets state-licensed banks complying with Basel II and III are also corralled into “riskless” assets, which according to the regulators are government debt.
The federal government should default on its debt | Fox Business
Between them, central banks and sovereign wealth funds that are buying equities in increasing quantities further the scope of quantitative easing.
So, just how long can this levitation go on?

By all these methods, state control of regulated public and private sector funds coupled with the expansion of bank credit has cheapened government borrowing, and it would appear that governments are now enabled to issue limitless quantities of zero or negative-yielding debt. So long as enough money and credit is fed into one end of the sausage machine, it emerges as costless finance from the other.
Never mind the destruction wreaked on key private sector investors, such as pension funds, whose actuarial deficits are already in crisis: that is a problem for later. Never mind the destruction of insurance fund finances
This is now the key question: are we entering a new phase of low-inflation managed capitalism, or are we tipping into a mega-crisis, possibly systemically destructive?

If the latter, there’s a lot to go horribly wrong. The Bank for International Settlements, the central banks’ central bank, is certainly worried. Only this week, it released its annual economic report, in which it said, “monetary policy can no longer be the main engine for economic growth.” Clearly whistling to keep our spirits up, it calls for structural reforms to boost government spending on infrastructure. Translated, the BIS is saying little more can be achieved by easing monetary policy, so Presidents and Prime Ministers, it’s over to you. You can create savings by making government more efficient and you can spend more on infrastructure.
The last thing that government wants is to be efficient. That would wipe out State jobs. YES spend more on infrastructure. It didn't work for Japan but, don't worry about that. As long as you borrow this money from us, everything will be fine.

While the BIS washes it hands of the problem, history and reason tell us increased state involvement in economic outcomes will only make things worse. It is in the nature of government bureaucracy to be economically wasteful, because its primary purpose is not the efficient use of capital resources.
Following the Lehman crisis, the expansion of money and credit fed into asset inflation, creating an illusion of improving business prospects. The suppression of interest rates was the come-on to businesses to invest in production. The government’s budget deficit created extra spending as a further encouragement. The government’s economists say it’s all down to reviving those animal spirits.
Those animal spirits. are now working 3 part-time gigs to try to put some food on the table.

Credit cycles have been generally worsening, at least since the inflationary crisis of the 1970s, which followed the abandonment of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. Central banks have debauched their currencies increasingly over successive credit cycles, building up to an inevitable apocalyptic crash. The approaching one could be our global totality, the grand-daddy of them all.
The collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement was an event in a larger cycle of government intervention and failure. Von Mises knew it would happen, and he explained why in his The Theory of Money and Credit, first published in German over one hundred years ago. Ten years before it happened, he predicted the collapse of the mark and other European currencies in the early 1920s. Since then, we have proved that collectively we have learned little.
This is a lesson that the bankers do NOT want to learn

In 1929, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was legislated at the end of the 1920s credit expansion, and it was the combination of the two that changed the similarly benign conditions of the 1920s to those of today into the 1929 crash and the depression that followed.
He mentions the 1920s credit expansion, but, does NOT say a word about the FED. He makes no mention of the fact that FED head, Benjamin Strong was illegally selling Treasury bonds on the secondary market,,,, causing even more effective monetary inflation. 1913, we got the FED and, massive monetary inflation. 16 years later, we got a disastrous crash.
It must not be assumed that today’s stock markets will fall by nine-tenths, as was the case between 1929-32.

If an attempt to fully restore confidence fails to do more than provide a short-term fix, government finances will deteriorate further, and monetary inflation will be tried in even greater quantities than we have seen heretofore. Flooded with fiat money, most economies will then experience rising price inflation that can no longer be camouflaged by government statistics
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:01 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Captive bond markets

Armstrong is claiming that the world will have a sovereign debt crisis. Here is a chart of what happened last time.
"I have warned continually that the Sovereign Debt Crisis will unfold not so much by people selling government debt, but by the lack of people buying new debt. The greatest peril is when there is NO BID for the new issues because all governments are operating a PONZI scheme. They sell new debt to pay off maturing debt."

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, What comes first? The banking Crisis or the Sovereign Debt Crisis?
ANSWER: The central banks are trapped. They can no longer even hope to sell the bonds they have bought in a vain attempt to stimulate the economy. So government can, in theory, keep their rates at zero as long as the central banks buy it, but they won’t be able to sell it to the public. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is already here. The liquidity is collapsing and central banks are rapidly becoming the only buyer.
As for banks, well, in Europe they are like the “Walking Dead.”
commerce, having no nationality, will leave in search of more fertile ground; but the wage earner, first to suffer under the ravages of a depreciated currency, remains incapable of prospering from the fluctuations in price and frustrated by his inability to hoard his own labour from the ever encroaching demands of taxation. His dilemma is without peaceful resolution

ALL governments eventually collapse. The PTB printed up an extra $248 trillion hoping that some of it would flow into sovereign debt. The ECB and BOJ are very transparent and, it is obvious that nobody is buying their bonds. The FED is a different story when it comes to transparency. They just pick a name out of hat and say, "this entity" is buying our bonds. This has successfully attracted fleeing capital.

There are treasury bills, treasury bills and, treasury bonds.
"U.S. Treasury securities ("Treasuries") are issued by the federal government and are considered to be among the safest investments you can make, because all Treasury securities are backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. This means that come what may—recession, inflation, war—the U.S. government is going to take care of its bondholders.

Treasuries are also liquid. A group of more than 20 primary dealers are required to buy large quantities of Treasuries every time there is an auction and stand ready to trade them in the secondary market."
The primary dealers are required to buy these notes. Selling them is where the obfuscation comes in. But, the State gets some help in this matter. MANY entities are required to buy treasury paper.
U.S. Treasury securities:

Depository institutions
U.S. savings bonds
Pension funds – private
Pension funds – state and local governments
Insurance companies
Mutual funds
State and local governments
Foreign and international institutions
Other investors
Since the regulatory changes in '71, investors can buy treasury paper and then, use this paper as collateral to buy something else. A big part of treasury debt is held by parties that have no choice in the matter. Social Security holds about $3 trillion in non-negotiable treasury debt.
Presumably, a collapse of sovereign debt would collapse everybody on the list.

Erdogan is getting worse.
Nuclear weapon material worth $72 MIllion seized in a car in Turkey
7/07 Erdogan says Turkish cenbank chief ousted for refusing rate cuts – Reuters

7/07 Earnings recession risk increases as a flood of warnings hit – MarketWatch
7/07 SocGen chairman warns economic risks are building in Europe – Bloomberg

He can't name Deutsche bank by name.
7/07 Trump administration is ‘inept and insecure’, says UK ambassador – BBC
They are REALLY pissed off about Trump and Farage getting on so well.
7/06 Bitcoin uses more energy than the whole of Switzerland – and it’s getting worse – Ind

Politics is going to get quite a bit dirtier.
Trump - 'I've Known Jeff For 15 Years... Terrific Guy'
President Bill Clinton And Alan Dershowitz Said Frequent Flyers On The Lolita Express - See Flight Logs Here...

In 'Radical Overhaul' 20,000 Deutsche Bankers Will Be Fired As 'Bad Bank' Soars To €80BN, 5x DB's Market Cap
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Old 07-09-2019, 04:25 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Pox Americana winding down

After WW II, pox Americana rode roughshod over the whole world, especially Germany and Japan. They are still occupied. When Europe was in ruins, America still had an army. When Europe was flat broke, America was very rich. The military - industrial - banking complex had no interest in going quietly into the night. We found a communist behind every tree and, we had to kill every one of them. This was the excuse to re-arm instead of seeking world peace. Lately, we have found a terrorist behind every rock. This calls for spending a LOT of money.

Pox Americana ruled the world with 2 main "instruments". That would be the American military (budget) and, the Federal Reserve. The Marshall Plan eventually saturated Europe with U.S. dollars. We had out Bretton Woods credit card. How else could we finance 7,000 bases and countless wars of choice? In addition, to the FED and the dollar, we also controlled the IMF and, later, SWIFT. Later, we had the petro-dollar. We made Saudi a deal that they couldn't refuse.
The U.S. military seemed to grow without limit. No budget was too big. No project was cut for lack of money. As long as it was market Top Secret, congress would never see a budget. Reportedly, the military has $22 trillion that they can't account for.
CENTCOM thrashes anybody who sells oil for other than dollars. The IMF and FED play tag-team at bankrupting any State that they fancy has something worth stealing.

All of this changed on 2015.75,,,,, as predicted by Martin Armstrong. The new Russian arms made Russia unassailable in any non-nuclear confrontation. CENTCOM can't attack Russia nor China. In addition to the long range missiles, there are the hypersonic missiles. They can hit anything on the ground. What about space?

China Will Soon Be Able to Destroy Every Satellite in Space
Pentagon: China, Russia Soon Capable of Destroying U.S. Satellites
India Successfully Tests Satellite-Killer Missile - WSJ
: American forces depend on satellites way more than other countries do—to guide bombs, help troops communicate, observe a battlefield, and a thousand other tasks.

"China took in 2007 when it shot down a weather satellite.
More than two-thousand distinct pieces of debris from that Chinese interception continue to orbit the Earth at high speeds, threatening other satellites. Hundreds of pieces will remain threatening for decades"
With the Donald Cook confrontation, Russia proved that they had superior weapons.

What about the FED and IMF?
Europe Launches SWIFT Alternative To Send Money To Iran | Zero
Russia Joins Europe's Effort to Create SWIFT Alternative - Russia ...Europe Launches SWIFT Alternative To Send Money To Iran | Zero ...
Feb 2, 2019 - The launch of INSTEX — "Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges" — by France, Germany, and the UK this week to allow "legitimate trade" ...
Russia backs global use of its alternative SWIFT system - Reuters

Europe's Alternative To Swift Another Nail In The Dollar's Coffin
Germany urges SWIFT end to US payments dominance | Business ..
Switzerland Would Join Alternative to US-Dependent Payment System ...

We abused all this power and the world is trying to get loose from American control.
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Old 07-09-2019, 03:11 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Hoping that gold will bring peace

The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to stop wars by blocking the genesis of war using credit to arm up. It tied State reserves to gold. Seeing as how, Europe had very little gold post WW II, it used the U.S. dollar as a proxy for gold. This meant trusting the Americans. Well, wealth and power attract corruption and, this opportunity was no exception. America went on a permanent war footing.
The world is working towards a new gold standard for international payments. Domestic currencies will float wherever the home state allows.
America runs a trade deficit if a couple $ billion a day. When the new arrangement comes into force, this won't be possible. The B.I.S. is the world's Central Bank. All settlements from the B.I.S. are already done in gold.
Imagine of State "A" owed 10 billion to State "B".. They could just print up 10 billion currency units and, hand them over.

Not any more. No more trade deficits. This means that most imports to America will come to an end. Trump is trying to ease into this new arrangement by bring back some American industry. He doesn't want consumption to come to a crashing halt when credit collapses. This will necessarily bring price inflation. Can't be helped.
If you have any doubts about the return of the gold standard, consider this;
7/08 Ronan Manly: Poland joins Hungary with huge gold purchase and repatriation – GATA
7/08 China announces seventh month of adding to gold reserves – GATA

Countries Around The World are Bringing Gold Home - Gold Telegraph
The Netherlands. Germany. Belgium. Switzerland. Austria. India. Mexico.
Still trust London with your gold? Poland latest to repatriate its bullion from the Bank of England
Is Gold Repatriation A Trend? Turkey Gets Its Reserves Back From
Gold Repatriation Could Be Sign of Things to Come - CoinWeek

There is a famous picture of the Queen inspecting a gold vault in London. All the bars have a number. She probably assumed that all that gold belonged to England.
Unfortunately, America has neither gold nor oil.
Rubin got rid of the gold and, the U.S. military burned up much of the oil.

7/08 Morgan Stanley downgrades global equities on fears of slowing growth – CNBC
7/08 PART III – debt crisis to be reborn in 2020 – Technical Traders
7/08 Dow falls as Apple leads tech slide – CNBC
7/08 Deutsche Bank retreat depends on uber optimism – Reuters

Deutsche bank is a very large domino. Their market capitalization is only $14 billion but, their derivative book is about $50 trillion.
7/09 The era of investment glut and inverted yield curves will come to an end – SA
7/08 India state lender plunges after uncovering fresh $554 million fraud – Bloomberg

The past few decades has seen central banks cut loose from the constraints of gold. The ensuing credit bubble was to be expected. Neither State nor bank will willing assume any constraints on their ability to create credit. This has brought all the usual ills. Seeing no other recourse, gold will be brought back in to offer some stability.

Kunstler covers the political scene.

Last edited by Danny B; 07-09-2019 at 10:44 PM. Reason: Duuhh
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Old 07-10-2019, 04:28 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Downturn,,, ZIRP,,, liquidity trap,,,unemployment

Well, we're definitely getting closer to crunch time. Trump's ratings are very high but, can they survive a credit collapse? He definitely wants a second term. Publicly, he states that the FED doesn't know what they are doing. But, he had a very good idea of what was coming when he appointed Powell. Is he trying to distance himself? The unwinding is picking up speed. It will not hold off til after the election.
7/09 Global stocks drop for third day, BASF warning stings Europe – Reuters
7/09 Is US shale cannibalizing itself? – Oil Price
7/09 Global recession risks are up, and central banks aren’t ready – NY Times

They already tried NIRP and, didn't fix anything.
7/09 Scenes outside Deutsche Bank offices evoke Lehman Collapse – Zero Hedge Do tell?

7/09 ‘The incredible disappearing bond yields’ – Reuters
The dollar is down only 1.8% but, gold is up about 9%. The rise in gold is mostly due to the fall in bonds, not a fall in the dollar.
7/09 Stock market cycle top and fearless VIX signal turning point – Technical Traders
VIX is the "fear gauge" Investors watch VIX to get an idea of what their fellow money renters are doing. The FED, ESF and PPT buy long futures in the VIX.

"In the simplest possible terms, the concern is that the bond market is "saying" something dire about the outlook for growth and stocks are simply ignoring that warning. The myriad curve inversions we've seen over the past several months lend credence to "looming recession" narrative which, again, stocks aren't heeding." foreign capital inflows.
7/09 How much will healthcare cost you in retirement? Try $369,000 – Motley Fool
Good article on commodity money.
Good article on LaGarde and the ECB
"There is no macroprudential measure that mitigates the risk created by negative rates and almost three trillion of asset purchases. More than half of European debt has negative returns and the ECB must maintain the repurchase of maturities, injections of liquidity and even announce a new program of quantitative easing in the face of the lack of sufficient demand in the secondary market for those negative yielding bonds. That is a bubble."
Yep, capital flight.

"The eurozone has been in stagnation for several months, with many leading indicators worsening, and it is not due to lack of stimulus, but due to excess.

1.- 64% of the sovereign debt of the eurozone hs negative yields. Five trillion euros . Completely unjustified looking at solvency, liquidity or growth ratios."|
We MUST have socialism. https://internationalman.com/article...e-implemented/

" it also doesn’t confirm the conventional wisdom that $33 Trillion in bailouts and liquidity, zero interest rates, and surging stock markets, are conducive to stronger economic growth for all.
However, what the data does confirm is the Fed is caught in a “liquidity trap.”
"Of course, that money didn’t flow into the U.S. economy, it went into financial assets. With the markets having absorbed the current levels of accommodation, it is not surprising to see the markets demanding more,"
"The issue of monetary velocity is the key to the definition of a “liquidity trap.” As stated above:

“The signature characteristic of a liquidity trap are short-term interest rates that are near zero and fluctuations in the monetary base that fail to translate into fluctuations in general price levels.”

I figure these 2020 Democrats have proposed upwards of $70 to $100 trillion in new spending over, say, a decade. And no one on the NBC ‘news’ panel bothered to ask a single candidate how they would pay for all of this new spending.

"Every month, the BLS adds numerous jobs to the non-seasonally adjusted payroll count to “adjust” for the number of “small businesses” being created each month, which in turns “creates a job.” (The total number is then seasonally adjusted.)

Here is my problem with the adjustment.

The BLS counts ALL business formations as creating employment. However, in reality, only about 1/5th of businesses created each year actually have an employee. The rest are created for legal purposes like trusts, holding companies, etc. which have no employees whatsoever. This is shown in the chart below which compares the number of businesses started WITH employees from those reported by the BLS."
"How big of a difference are we talking about?

Well, in the decade between 2006 and 2016 (the latest update from the Census Bureau) the BLS added roughly 7.6 million more employees than were created in new business formations."
"This data goes a long way in explaining why, despite record low unemployment, there is a record number of workers outside the labor force, 25% of households are on some form of government benefit, wages remain suppressed, and the explosion of the “wealth gap.” "
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Old 07-11-2019, 04:23 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Rich dad, poor dad

Just one vid.
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Old 07-11-2019, 03:12 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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China is slipping,,,Libra is BS,,,Malthus

Time to point the finger at China again. The Chinese are born gamblers. Their recent arrival in the world of capitalism has made them a bit too euphoric. Add to that, their inborn, natural tendencies to skirt the law.
Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank of China
Transparency International has compiled a list of the biggest corruption scandals over the past quarter century, which “involve politicians across political parties and from the highest reaches of government, staggering amounts of bribes and money laundering of epic proportions”.

Shocking they all most certainly are - but even more shockingly, Nicholas Wilson, a whistleblower embroiled in a 16-year-long one-man crusade against HSBC, has noted the bank - one of the largest banking and financial services organisations in the world - crops up in 18 of the historic calumnies, and may have played a role in at least three others.
So, on the corruption scale. HSBC is in a class of it's own.
Criminal enterprises always tend to get over-extended.

" In 2018, the country was known for creating four billionaires a week and is number one globally in self-made fortunes."
"Over the past decade, the overall debt of the country has quadrupled to about three times the value of last year's national output. Corporate debt makes up 2/3 of the total, amounting to more than $26 trillion last year."
""Many Chinese entrepreneurs tend to borrow as much as possible, even if the core business doesn’t need it."
"The country desperately needs companies that might lead China to a new stage of development that’s less dependent on construction and exports. The debt load is making it difficult for business owners to reinvest in the economy and the trade dispute with the United States continues to wear away at the country's confidence."
NO accident there. China wants to switch over to a consumer economy. NOT going to happen with peasant wages.
"Chinese companies last year had $1.72 trillion in debt securities outstanding, which was the second highest after American companies, who carry $5.81 trillion."

"More than 18,000 companies filed bankruptcy petitions in Chinese courts last year, which is about twice as many as the previous year. Bankruptcy had previously been a rare action to take in China. Bond defaults also hit record numbers last year at 125, which was five times the number in 2015. Defaults are running at an even faster pace in 2019 so far."
Trump is diligently trying to push China off a cliff.

The Libra Coin
"Since Libra can move freely across borders, it "won’t be sustainable without the support and supervision of central banks," Mu Changchun, deputy director of the PBOC’s payments department, said. That's because the currency could create new monetary policy and foreign exchange risks for developing economies."
CBs are quite worried about transactional devices that they can't control. Most countries manipulate their currencies to gain some kind of export advantage. The Libra is a P.O.S. in that it is directly referenced to currencies and bonds. BUT, it would block much of the actions of the Central Bankers.
"Though Facebook is banned in China, Mu believes it could one day endanger the yuan, unless the Chinese currency becomes freely convertible.
"In the longer term, the yuan will be damaged by Libra if it’s not convertible," Mu told Bloomberg.
Mu also said the PBOC had tested Libra's code and that it isn't "stable."

I've already written a couple of times that the Yuan faces "the impossible Trinity" and can never be freely traded.
The PBOC and BOJ and ECB are all very transparent regarding reflation schemes. The FED is not transparent and, the dollar zone has a big advantage because of this.

" The Malthusian trap describes a situation that keeps population growth in line with available resources. The increase in income per person was not sustainable in the long run, as economic growth was inevitably consumed by population increases."
"Western European countries, however, managed to escape the Malthusian trap through the Industrial Revolution which accelerated in the nineteenth century. Escaping the Malthusian trap meant an increase in both population growth and economic prosperity for the vast majority of people. "
"Economic historians explained that the phenomenon resulted from technological advances, demographic shifts due to European marriage patterns (marrying in later years, establishing a separate household, having fewer children), and increased human intelligence. All of the above are supposed to secure the systematic excess of output growth rates over the overpopulation growth rate. It seems that one crucial factor needs to be added to the list: capitalism itself, "

This is a pretty informative article but, it leaves out the biggest influence of all... carbon energy. They just say, "technological advances".
It takes X amount of food calories for a man to produce Y amount of food. If you replace human calorie expenditure with carbon energy, you completely change the whole picture.
" Socialism, in general, encroaches on private property rights, controls the economy, and subordinates individual decision-making to the collective. In this regard, it is appropriate to assume that socialism would push society back toward the Malthusian trap."
"The economy was exhibiting negative growth, hyperinflation, extreme impoverishment of the population, the deficit of basic food and consumer products. How can one explain such unfortunate events? Socialism adversely affects personal and economic freedoms—the essential components of socio-economic systems that are subject to universal and natural economic laws. The implementation of socialistic measures inhibited the natural flow of market forces in the official economic sphere and funnelled them to the shadow ."

"They" are only barely starting to factor in the negative pressures from climate change.
As we get deeper into solar cycle 25, the death & destruction will become much more apparent.

A prospectus on war with Iran.
What we can't do with invasion, we try to do with chokehold.
7/10 U.S. wants military coalition to safeguard waters off Iran, Yemen – Reuters
7/11 Trump threatens to ‘substantially’ increase sanctions on Iran – Reuters

7/11 Boris Johnson’s pivot: goodbye EU, hello U.S. – Atlantic
Yep, that was the plan all along.
7/11 ECB seen readying the pumps for return to massive bond buying – Bloomberg
There is no plan B
7/11 Chicago pensions are no longer 27% funded (it’s now 23%) – Forbes
7/10 Class 8 truck orders crash 70% in June after a 71% drop in May – ZH
Great graphs, https://northmantrader.com/2019/07/1...-rings-a-bell/
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Old 07-12-2019, 03:05 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Criminal bankers,,, Brexit battle, ,,Boeing blowup

Yes, it is time to start worrying a bit more.
7/11 Wall Street banks bailing on troubled U.S. farm sector – Reuters
Fracked shale oil wells drying up faster than predicted, Wall Street pulling out.

One Climate Crisis Disaster Occurs Every Week, U.N. Official Warns
So, finance is pulling out of food and oil.
Major Wall Street banks are telling clients to be ready for a sudden rip higher in the market May 2 2019
Two major banks highlighted the possibility of a rapid, surprise jump in the stock market known as a “melt-up,” driven by investors looking to get in on a positive momentum shift.
7/12 Dow rallies 200 points to close above 27,000 for the first time ever – CNBC[/B]

How Wall Street Enabled the Fracking 'Revolution' That's Losing Billions
This Fed Policy Enabled the Fracking Industry's $280 Billion Loss.

I just don't see this ending well.
"Federal funds futures give the odds of a July rate cut at 100%.
They further indicate three are likely by January."
They say that the economy is great but, they "telegraph" that it is terrible.
“Traders Take Fed Message as License to Buy Everything.”
Yes, yes,,, do NOT abandon the markets.
"Yesterday they drove the S&P past 3,000 for the first time. "
Interesting article positing that the crash of Boeing may bring it all down.

7/12 Earnings season is here and it won’t be pretty – CNBC
Shoulda bought gold.
7/12 Bullied Fed chief may have put US on dangerous path – SMH
That would be Rubin or Greenspan.
7/12 Many Americans will never stop working – Safe Haven
95 million American workers not in US labor force - CNBC.com
21,995,000 to 12,329,000: Government Employees Outnumber Manufacturing Employees 1.8 to 1

You can see why many Americans can't retire. They are carrying TOO MANY dependents.

7/12 Fed chair says relationship between inflation and unemployment is gone – CNBC
No kidding When did he figure that one out?
Capital is instantly mobil, labor is NOT.
7/12 Merkel’s shaking episodes fuel debate about German power handover – Reuters
Maybe the old communist tart is going to be outed by Epstein for wild orgies.

Armstrong, Everybody is predicting a crash because stocks are so over-bought. Armstrong points out that; as investor confidence turns, they just want to preserve value and are NOT worried about income. It doesn't matter if there are earnings as long as investors expect valuations to hold up. The capital flight from Europe is a result of the lack of confidence in the ECB vs the FED. It is doubtful that the coming rate cuts will turn this confidence around.

Armstrong writes about the '29 crash. GOV went after banks rather than bankers. They could collect MUCH bigger fines that way. They weren't interested in setting an example by prosecuting bankers.
"ANSWER: The bankers own the reign of government from the courts to the White House. In the years that followed the 2008 financial crisis, the Securities and Exchange Commission brought charges against more than 150 people and institutions and won $2.68 billion in penalties. The SEC loves big fines. Keep in mind if they charge the individual banker, it will never be profitable. Charge the bank and promise no criminal prosecutions and you get the big bucks. So yes, not one of the bankers went to jail from that financial meltdown that they created which left 8.8 million Americans jobless. I"
1932 "The Pecora Commission, as the investigation came to be known, led to indictments for several of the era’s finance giants. However, this was all before the SEC and Glass-Steagall, which Goldman Sachs had the Clintons repeal. Since banking laws did not guard against the kind of speculation that fueled the crash, most escaped prosecution for they did not violate any law."
Glass-Steagal was / is an absolute necessity to protect the average person.
" At the height of his success, Insull controlled businesses worth as much as $500 million in assets with just $27 million in equity. When the crash hit, 65 of his businesses failed, ruining 600,000 investors."

"However, this was all before the SEC and Glass-Steagall, which Goldman Sachs had the Clintons repeal."
"The Pecora Commission went after the individuals. The SEC and Justice Department protect those bankers today. The Securities and Exchange Commission is now controlled by the people from Goldman Sachs. The likelihood of the SEC ever prosecuting anyone from the banking industry is ZERO,"
Without personal and / or moral hazard, you can expect exactly the situation that we have today. Regulatory capture in the courts and SEC ensure that the situation will not change easily. The crimes from slick Willy against Americans just keep mounting.

"There comes times like in 2009 where capital no longer trusts the banks, governments, and is just looking to get its money back intact."
If the State does not pump up the markets, fear of missing out becomes impotent.
"EU Refuses to Negotiate Fairly with Britain – Demands of a Customs Union"
"France Refuses any Negotiation on BREXIT & Demands to Punish Britain"
France especially is determined to punish GB to ensure that nobody else gets the idea of leaving. You can also expect that the London bankers are pushing "remain".
The French are stupid about this. There is NO future for the EU in it's present configuration. Germany is crashing. What other indicator do they need to finally see failure?

7/11 France passes digital tax on US tech firms despite trade threat – CNBC
The Yellow Vest protests have made it impossible to raise taxes on the French so, they raise taxes on Americans.

7/12 Tropical storm Barry nears Louisiana, New Orleans under state of emergency – ABC
With one weather disaster a week, they are just going to have to abandon New Orleans. There was a town on the Texas coast that got destroyed years ago. They rebuilt everything. After if got destroyed so badly that they couldn't even find debris, everybody just left the area.
Anthropogenic global warming is FINALLY dying a death of attrition.
Carbon taxes were originated to fund World Government. The base reference of global warming studies was that the out[put of the sun does NOT vary.
Some of the feces-for-brains who advocate world GOV have finally come to the realization that world GOV just can't work when Capital is mobil and, labor is not. Evidently, they believe that they can rectify this problem by destroying all borders so that labor can be mobil.
Take the poor and the stupid out of a country who have NO opportunities in their home country AND send them to some advanced country that has a low birth rate. They are still poor and stupid. Putting them on permanent government welfare isn't going to improve anything. Using generous welfare payments to attract unemployable people is definitely a recipe for disaster.

Boeing engaged $9-an-hour Indian engineers to build 737 Max ...
https://www.business-standard.com › International › News

Boeing lost $26.6 billion of market value since Sunday's 737 Max crash

Mar 13, 2019 -
Boeing's 737 Max woes just cost it a $5.9 billion order — Quartz
5 days ago

"And Boeing is the largest individual component on the Dow Jones. It presently enjoys an 11.6% weighting.

When Boeing goes up, the index often goes with it. When Boeing goes down, the index often goes with it also."
"Boeing has just announced its H1 [first half] deliveries in 2019 are down 54%. It has only delivered 90 new aircraft this year. Yet it is producing 42 new B-737 MAX’s each month and is having to store them on airport parking lots! It isn’t getting paid for these aircraft, but it still has supply chain commitments to meet. Boeing is hemorrhaging cash to build an aircraft no one can fly…"
" At least one airline is said to be refusing to accept aircraft built outside Seattle. The U.S. Air Force stopped deliveries of new KC-46 tankers for a while when they found engineers had left hammers and other tools in wing and control spaces — a clear indication of “safety standardsgotten too lax” said Defense News… This has massive implications for Boeing."

A corporation has no brain, heart, conscience, nor soul. It considers people to be interchangeable. If Indian programmers work for less,,, send them the work.
" But there have been problems with B-787 Dreamliners built at its state-of-the-art Charleston factory — “shoddy production and weak oversight” said The New York Times"
But, But, the plant is state-of-the-art.
Yes, but, the wage scale in the deep south is lower than the wage scale in Seattle.
Boeing got lax, lazy and stupid. Airbus is eating them up.
"It presently enjoys an 11.6% weighting." They're going to have to change that real quick so that the apparent market level does not fall.
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Old 07-13-2019, 04:41 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Main CBs & euthanasia,,,supporting zombies,,,RISING debt

Keep in mind that J. M. Keynes predicted and championed "Euthanasia of the Rentier" Hegel came up with the idea that; everybody should work for the government.
How would you bring this about? How would kill off the money-rental business?
Armstrong ;"Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda publicly stated that it may maintain ultra-low rates for a further period of well over a year. However, he also warned against the idea of propping up the economy through unlimited money printing to finance government spending. That may sound nice, but the Bank of Japan is trapped. Its holdings of the national debt have reached nearly 50%. The BOJ modified its forward guidance or pledge on how it will guide future monetary policy. It stated that current very low interest rates will continue at least until the spring of 2020. However, there is ZERO hope without the BOJ buying the government debt that interest rates will rise dramatically and a financial crisis will be in the making.

The BOJ will keep rates low for an extended period of time for they have no choice. There is no way out of this nightmare and the real inflationary cycle comes when the majority wake up and realize that the emperor has no clothes, and that means the central bankers worldwide."

"It’s not just zombie corporations that need cheap and easy money these days just to stay upright. It’s also zombie individuals. Millions of them.
They’re among us. They can’t exist without debt. And the economy can’t live without them.
Welcome to the Debt Zombie Apocalypse."
"But even once they’re in debt, they still carry on spending. Even while paying monthly interest that sometimes goes as high as 30%. "
"A look at the official data shows where we are today. Mortgage debt is now higher than it was during the peak of the bubble in 2008. Credit-card debts are 50% higher. Student debt has doubled and corporate debt has more than doubled. Car loans are 50% higher.
And Uncle Sam’s debt, as we know, has more than doubled, from $9.5 trillion in 2008 to $22 trillion today."

The ECB is charging ahead with stimulus to keep markets going.
"To show how desperate investors are for yield…

At the recent Italian bond auction, demand for the 50-year bond with an interest rate of 2.90% was 6 times oversubscribed.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been a strong advocate for monetary stimulus and lower-for-longer interest rates."
The ECB is going to print just like the other CBs

"The banks charged off $8.8 billion in credit-card debt last quarter. They just gave up on it, and accepted they were never going to get back another nickel. The borrowers were bust."
"If this is what balance sheets look like when the economy is doing well, imagine what they’ll look like when the next downturn hits. Oh, never mind. The Fed can keep cutting rates, and Uncle Sam can just print up a trillion more dollars. "
7/12 Indebted Americans can’t cut back on luxury spending: poll – Credit Cards

7/12 Ray Dalio: there is as little as one year of Fed stimulus left in the bottle – ZH
7/12 A long shadow creeps over the economy this summer – Great Recession
7/12 China imports from US plunge 31% in June amid tariff war – AP
7/12 Japan firm says $32 mn missing in cryptocurrency hack – Yahoo

7/11 Iranian boats ‘harass’ British tanker in the Gulf – Reuters
Middle East Tanker Insurance Rates Soar 10-Fold
DHL Sounds Alarm On Collapsing World Trade: "Significant Downturn" Underway Zero hedge:
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Old 07-14-2019, 03:09 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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euthanasia of the rentier, ,, too much debt liquidity but, not enough money

I'm straining my brain trying to put some ideas together. Keynes said that in the future (our present), there would be so much accumulated wealth that we would only have to work 15 hours a week. Keynes also said that this would bring full employment. This OBVIOUSLY doesn't work. The really talented people, who haven't been displaced by automation are working more hours than ever. The no-talent people will never have a job niche because automation displaces them first.
At the same time, Shumpeter advocated "creative destruction" to keep the economy stimulated and, everybody working. He said to go around town and, break all the windows. This would put people to work.
The U.S. military serially goes around and destroys nations so that they have to spend their oil money to rebuild. The military also burns up as much military hardware as possible, ostensibly to keep people working. Crushing taxes are required to pay for this transfer of wealth to the arms dealers and banks.
Keynes should have been aware of automation because; "Ned Ludd broke a knitting frame to protest automation and outsourcing."By 1812, organised frame-breakers became known as Luddites"
Apparently, Keynes couldn't envision widespread automation.

Suppose that I pay $1 trillion for a plane. Even if that plane is destroyed, the wealth still went to some bank account. The nominal amount of money is just transferred. General Dynamics pays it's suppliers and workers. Maybe the money goes to China for cheap junk. In a general sense, the money sits in a bank somewhere.

Keynes has another idea;
"Keynes explains that the major mistake people make about economics is the idea that capital is scarce, and must be rewarded heavily to encourage investment in job-creating projects. Keynesian theory says that this view is utterly wrong. Keynes says that the amount of capital needed to operate an economy at full employment is limited, and once achieved, the marginal return to capital will drop to the point that it merely covers depreciation, obsolescence, and a small return for risk and for managerial skill and judgment."
"Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital."

In recent years, the CBs have created an additional $248 trillion of debt liquidity.
At the same time, banks are charging 18% credit card interest.
The banks are trying to make capital appear scarce to justify charging interest. There just isn't enough demand for private credit. The State is trying to suck up available credit / liquidity to make it appear that capital is scarce.
7/13 U.S. budget deficit jumps 23% as spending hits record high – Japan News
7/13 US government is running out of money faster than expected, Mnuchin warns – CNN

The ECB, BOJ, FED and PBOJ are all running the printing presses in hyperdrive creating new liquidity. The Central Banks are creating megatons of liquidity to support the State. U.S. GOV spends 24% of the GDP,,, The French GOV, 57%.
7/13 US government will run out of money in September. CNN

Walter Burien uses GOV financial reports to show that 47,000 GOV agencies have a cumulative $248 trillion stashed away.
CAFR1 Home Page
The California University system claims that they have $91 billion.
Apparently, this mountain of accumulated wealth that Keynes predicted exists but, is walled off from the public who must therefore borrow from the banks.

"scarcity-value of capital."
The debt per person is reported to be $86,000 worldwide. This is debt that was incurred by the State in your name. But, this debt was incurred to keep you working.
"scarcity value of labor"
Decades ago, the fertility rate in America was about 3.2 per woman. Wages were good here because of our post-war lock on manufacturing. Capital is always at war with labor.
The fertility rate in Mexico was 6.2 so, the southern border was left open to allow a greater part of the profits to accrue to capital. When Mexican fertility fell to the current number of 2.6, new populations had to be drawn in to America to continue to depress wages.
Scarcity of labor had to be continuously alleviated.
Bring in unskilled labor in the face of rising automation seems like a bad idea.

We have reached a point where the CBs are printing with wild abandon. Capital has successfully depressed wages to where the solvent public are not doing much borrowing. The insolvent public owe $1.4 trillion on their credit cards.
Between the CAFR money and, the offshore American wealth, there is something like $300 trillion. This doens't include MANY other jurisdictions. Capital successfully depressed wages at the same time that automation and outsourcing wiped out job niches. The riches of capital are all denominated as debt owed by people who are not working.

From one angle, it looks like the CBs are trying to bring bankruptcy of the rentier with endless monetary stimulation.

FED chair Powell "‘There’s something going on with the growth around the world, particularly around manufacturing and investment and trade,’ he told the House Financial Services Committee"
"Record stock prices don’t matter. Booming corporate Credit is no issue. June’s big gain in payrolls and a 3.7% unemployment rate are not part of the decision function. A Friday afternoon Bloomberg headline resonated: “A Stock Market Dying to Know What Powell Knows About the Economy.”

The so-called “insurance” rate cut is all about the global environment, with monetary policy’s traditional domestic focus relegated to history."
You can thank the global-mean-wage. It killed consumption and trade.
"I don’t believe the primary impetus behind the global central bank swing toward additional stimulus is economic. Indeed, I see Powell, Draghi, Carney, Kuroda and the like confirming the Acute Global Financial Fragilities Thesis."
They have FINALLY noticed that the lower loop is DYING
"But a global financial “system” already excessively embracing risk, wallowing in liquidity abundance and generating record Credit growth will be only further destabilized by greater stimulus."
Yep, Plan "A" until the cows drop dead.

"Bizarro World, indeed. Why is financial history strewn with markets succumbing to bouts of end-of-cycle insanity? The obvious answer is greed – greed that became deeply ingrained after a protracted period of being richly rewarded (with fear and caution punished mercilessly). The longer the cycle the more intense and resilient the greed dynamic. The more of the “house’s” money available to gamble, the more extravagant the bets. I would add that prolonged cycles typically have some type of underlying government support that over time comes to underpin confidence and risk-taking (playing an especially critical role late in the cycle). "
"But greed and governmental support are insufficient to inflate Bubbles. Bubbles are fueled by Credit. I would add that “money” is also key. Credit booms can’t survive to become “protracted” without the expansion of perceived safe and liquid (money-like) Credit instruments"
Ah yes, Post gold-standard credit expansion.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Central Banker to the World

"They" use fear of missing out to keep money in the markets. Stocks depend on earnings. If earnings don't materialize, there is no reason to stay in stocks.
7/13 Market rally artificially inflated by growing corporate share buybacks – Birch Gold
All the buybacks were done with wet-ink money from the FED.
7/13 Chicago governor says no to statewide pension crisis fix – Daily Reckoning
7/13 Chicago mayor blocks ICE access to police databases ahead of raids – MSN
He better have his BOB handy. Get Wikileaks to hack the info.
7/13 The ‘yield curve’ is flashing warning signs – Phil’s Stock World
Short term debt is commanding way more interest than long term debt. "They" expect a crash in the short term.
7/13 Finance costs are killing the shale industry – SRSrocco Report
The free-money train from the FED to Wall St to frackers is on a different track now.

7/13 The world acquires more gold while China is dumping U.S. Treasuries – Daily Coin
The printing presses at the FED are starting to smoke a bit to make up the difference.
7/13 Michael Hudson: de-dollarizing may collapse the U.S. financial empire – GATA
Michael Hudson really knows his stuff. Plan "A" is for America to collapse last. Since our stimulus is hidden, capital is attracted.
7/13 Fed chair suggests bitcoin is gold’s biggest competition – CCN
$356 million in cryptocurrency stolen in first three months of 2019 - TNW
Crime still plagues cryptocurrencies; $1.7 billion was stolen last year

7/13 Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s testimony postponed by one week – Guardian
7/13 Epstein has ‘secret’ steel safe in off-limits room on ‘Pedo Island’ – Zero Hedge

Buy more popcorn.

"And now there is the Epstein matter, which threatens not only former president Bill Clinton, but a cosmos of political, financial, and entertainment “stars” in countless ugly incidents that involve a kind of personal corruption that has no political context but says an awful lot about the obliteration of moral and ethical boundaries by the people who ended up running things in this fretful moment of US history. "
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Old 07-14-2019, 05:43 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Capital flight,,, ECB vs FED

Armstrong has long claimed that things will get much worse when the people lose confidence in government. He states that 35% of the people think that Us GOV is the problem. He states that this will become a BIG problem when 45% of the people have no confidence in GOV.
He has a vid talking about capital flight. The Chinese found BTC to be the perfect vehicle for getting capital out of China.
Beijing cracks down on Twitter users - Public Radio International
Chinese Censors Crack Down On Foreigners' Speech Online
China cracks down on aggrieved party cadres in Xinjiang and Tibet ..
The Hunt for Dissidents in China - Refworld
China's Hunt for DissIdents Expands to Foreign Countries | Time

China can crack down on protest but, this reduces trust in GOV.
China Cracks Down In Hong Kong, Shocks The Unsuspecting | WJR-AM
Hong Kong climbs to No 4 on World Bank's list of easiest places to do business

China's exports shrink most in 2 years, raising risks to global economy
Shrinking China factory activity, faltering exports inflame economic anxiety

Now, China wants to crack down on BTC and facebook / libra
China also wants the authority / power to extradite persons from Hong Kong.

The Chinese, like most politicians, believe that they simply have to pass a law and, everybody will comply,,, under pain of prosecution. China wants to be a world power but, they can NOT internationalize the Yuan as long as they are an authoritarian regime.

The structure of the FED essentially means that they can never go bankrupt. They might very well cause price inflation but, they won't go bankrupt.
Armstrong, "These people who do not really know what they are talking about assuming that just because the Fed has the power to create elastic money, that therefore the ECB can do the same thing. SORRY – WRONG!!!!"
"There is a substantial difference between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The accounting at the Fed allows for it to CREATE money as needed. Now the fiat crowd will argue that the Fed can just create money in a very ELASTIC money supply. This is true and it was intended from the very outset that when economic declines appeared, the leverage within the system would implode and thus to ease that contraction in the supply of money. Originally, the money was created not by bailout banks, but by purchasing corporate paper directly to prevent layoffs. Hence, the shortage of money resulted in defaults BECAUSE banks would not lend and assets decline in currency value in proportion to the contraction in money supply. Therefore, the Fed was created with the power to create ELASTIC money that made sense because the corporate (unlike government) have to pay back."

" how does this contrast with the ECB? Here in lies the problem. The ECB is NOT authorized to create an ELASTIC MONEY SUPPLY. Germany would never allow that. Consequently, the ECB cannot continue to just buy-in sovereign debt of member states as the market forces come down upon them. The ECB, unlike the Fed, will run out of money and then there will be a very public crisis whereby the ECB will have to be recapitalized. I wrote about this before in Federal Reserve v ECB.

I warned back then that “Something will have to give in Europe.” The ECB was granted a ceiling to buy in government bonds. It cannot just print money with no end in sight. It must get approval, which the Fed does not require from Congress. The two are completely different animals."
The ECB is Insolvent Based on Their Standards | Armstrong Economics

Dec 23, 2016 - Under their own rules, the ECB should now be declared insolvent... The Fed only has Federal debt, not state debt which would be more like the ECB.

Here is the Vid, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFrNf5VSfPs
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