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  #3181  
Old 03-13-2019, 03:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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ZH, Facebook and the slow burn

I started writing on global cooling 10 years ago. The idea is slowly catching on .
https://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic.php?t=26584

Zero Hedge put up this article showing that the libs have gone completely crazy in higher education.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...tudents-become
Shortly after that, Facebook blocked ANY links to ZH articles.
https://www.rt.com/news/453593-zero-...ok-complaints/
Facebook Reverses Zero Hedge Ban, Says It Made A "Mistake"
Everything that the libs do seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to something that upsets them..

Meanwhile, Cheney is pissed off because we don't have enough wars.
https://www.rt.com/usa/453583-dick-c...-isolationism/
Daily Reckoning has praised Trump as the "do nothing" president,,,, referring to his lack of wars.
Armstrong has been recognised worldwide as being correct on his investment advice. He has warned loud and clear about the collapse of public debt. Nobody will buy sovereign debt. The CBs send truckloads of pixels to each other that they sue to buy each others debt. While stocks are referenced to some tangible object or service, bonds are just a hope & prayer credit instrument. Stocks are more-or-less hanging in there but, bonds aren't doing well at all.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...aint-buying-it

Various corporations and other entities sell bonds to borrow money. There is no requirement that these bonds and companies have any visible means to repay these bonds. The bonds are just rated. Any downturn in the economy lowers this rating.
There are a couple hundred $billion in bonds that are VERY shakey. Just the same, companies MUST rollover these short term notes. Buffet said, when the tide goes out, you will see who has been swimming naked. It looks like January 2020 is when the tide goes out.
U.S. public debt is rising tremendously as GOV tries to pump up everybody who is failing. This transfers the risk to the public sector. Eventually, we will see just how long GOV can fake it.
California is quite the generous Sate, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...0000-pensions/

The problem with Zero Hedge is that it punctures the official narrative.
"But we did let the crisis of 2008 go to waste. Rather than reconstructing a new foundation out of the wreckage, we simply restored the status quo ante, and left the world’s elite financial engineers with a relatively free hand to create a wide range of new destructive financial instruments."
"Here’s another disaster waiting to happen: Globally, financial markets today are seeing a rebirth of “collateralized loan obligations” (CLOs), instruments broadly similar to the “collateralized debt obligations” (CDOs), which helped to blow up the financial system in 2008. CDOs were asset-backed instruments, a “blended” security comprised of risky mortgage-backed bonds and much of the rest from theoretically safer tranches. The theory underlying them was that the lower the investment quality, the higher the compensating yield, but in reality most turned out to be toxic junk. What distinguishes CLOs from their CDO “cousin” is that instead of repackaging mortgages, subprime and otherwise, CLOs repackage corporate loans, and consumer credit, such as car loans.

Unfortunately, in yet another instance of lessons unlearned from 2008, the collateralized loan obligations, like the CDOs, have virtually non-existent investor protection, “with over 70 percent lacking any covenants that would allow monitoring of financial condition and early intervention to manage problem borrowers."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...aiting-explode
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  #3182  
Old 03-14-2019, 03:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The economy has been in a state of animated death

"Jeremy Grantham, a market investor who is credited with predicting the 2000 and 2008 downturns, said that other investors should get used to more lackluster returns in the stock market in the next 20 years."
"Grantham told CNBC on Thursday that after a century of handsome gains investors should get inured to lackluster returns in the stock market for the next two decades, according to Market Watch. “In the last 100 years, we’re used to delivering perhaps 6%,”
So, what happened 100 years ago,,,1919??
NOW, I remember,,, we got the FED as our beloved central bank.
Investor: The Next 20 Years In The Stock Market Will "Break A Lot Of Hearts"
" Other economists have warned that when the economy finally collapses this next time, the central bankers and the government will be unable to save anyone."
I can live with that as long as the bankers and politicians get the axe first.

"It is important to remind the public that this narrative is entirely false.

The economy has been in a state of animated death since 2008. Central bank stimulus acted as a kind of fiscal formaldehyde, keeping the visible signs of the crash at bay for 10 years but also creating a bubble even larger and more destructive than the one before. The “Everything Bubble” has now been primed to explode with maximum damage in mind."
I thought it was Viagra and cocaine.
"The crash itself is simply a means to an end. It is a tool to gain fiscal and psychological leverage against the public. The everything bubble was created for a reason"
"The assertion in the mainstream media is that this recessionary downturn is new. This is not the case. What began in 2008 was an epic implosion of multiple national economies, and what we are seeing in 2019 is the final culmination of that process - The end game."
"The assertion in the mainstream media is that this recessionary downturn is new. This is not the case. What began in 2008 was an epic implosion of multiple national economies, and what we are seeing in 2019 is the final culmination of that process - The end game."

"What we do know is that the intent of the globalists is to use this reset to create a more centralized monetary system and micro-managed global economy"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...gineered-crash
3/13 Consumers racked up $67 billion in credit card debt in 2018, study finds – Silver
Party on Wayne.
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  #3183  
Old 03-14-2019, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Thrashing about to preseve the power structure

Containerized shipping ushered in outsourcing from high-wage economies. It crashed down remuneration in the domestic productive sector. The bankers convinced the State that they must be allowed to grossly inflate the upper loop of the economy and, the "trickle down" would buoy up the lower loop. Well, it didn't work that way. The trickle down stimulated the gig economy but, did nothing for manufacturing or wages.
It did however, create price inflation that eroded away the purchasing power of the wages that had become static. The State does not consider inflation of the upper loop when figuring the inflation numbers that affect the lower loop. Shadowstats has long publicised the "true" inflation numbers. I write "true" in quotation marks because Shadowstats is still using government data to get their results.
They use a previous methodology from the State to get what they consider to be a more accurate result,,, instead of the heavily massaged data.
The Dallas FED has now come out with a methodology that includes the inflation of the upper loop.
https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-...nflation-rate/

What it shows is; there was absolutely NO JUSTIFICATION for the money pumping and QE. Keep in mind that the FED strives mightily to create 2% price inflation and,,, cries when it can't accomplish this. Former FED head, Paul Volker came out clearly and said that there was NO JUSTIFICATION for a 2% inflation target. The only "justification" for QE and asset inflation is to rescue the money renters.
When the arrival of the global-mean-wage wiped out the productive class, it SHOULD have wiped out much of the speculative class. Regulatory capture held this crash at bay for a time. This scheme is rapidly winding down,,, from a historical perspective.

51% of Americans receive a check from the State. This has just gotten too expensive.
Good article;
"This demand cannot be met, and so society decays into warring elites and competing constituencies. The only real solution--to make severe sacrifices in order to live within the modest means available and jettison the parasitic elites--is politically and culturally unpalatable to a citizenry steeped in a belief that good times should be forever and it's the fault of the ruling party of the moment rather than a failure of the entire system."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps
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  #3184  
Old 03-15-2019, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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A little doom here,,, a little gloom there.

So, we are rapidly approaching the end of a credit super-cycle. We are sinking into the Fourth Turning. Never in history has there been an economic playbook that coped with automation. Never has there been a credit bubble of such huge proportions. The FED is hinting at negative interest rates. Europe is sliding towards NIRP that is even more negative. Nobody has a plan. The upper loop is deathly afraid of free money for the lower loop. The upper loop fears an end to their advantage. The lower loop fears an end to their lives.

"ZH, Why the FED panicked in December.
The economy has completely fallen off a cliff."
We will eventually have a reset but, it will involve a lot of death and destruction.
Here is our progress report.
"The stage is set for the largest tsunami of consumer debt defaults that this country has ever seen, and that will absolutely devastate major financial institutions all across America."

#1 Total consumer debt in the United States just surpassed the 4 trillion dollar mark. That has never happened before in all of U.S. history.

#2 When you throw in mortgages and all other kinds of individual debt, U.S. consumers are now 13.5 trillion dollars in debt.

#3 A whopping 480 million credit cards are in circulation in this country. That number has shot up by nearly 13 percent since 2015.

#4 U.S. consumers are carrying 870 billion dollars worth of balances on their credit cards right now.

#5 56 percent of Americans that currently have credit card balances have been carrying them for more than a year.

#6 The number of “seriously delinquent”credit card accounts in the U.S. has shot up to 37 million.

#7 Americans now owe a total of 1.3 trillion dollars on their auto loans.

#8 At this moment, more than 7 million Americans are delinquent on their auto loan payments. The figure has already surpassed what we witnessed during the peak of the last recession by about a million.

#9 The total amount of student loan debt in the United States has reached the 1.5 trillion dollar mark. Over the last 10 years, that number has more than doubled.

#10 Right now, more than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is considered to be “seriously delinquent”.

#11 Millennials are now more than a trillion dollars in debt. No generation of Americans has ever been deeper in debt at this stage in life.

#12 One recent survey found that 78 percent of Americans “are living paycheck to paycheck”. Suffocating debt levels are a big reason why that figure is so incredible
And that is particularly important at this juncture because the economy is really starting to slow down. Compared to last year, U.S. job cut announcements were up 117 percent in February.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ebt-apocalypse

The money renters temporarily severed the link to the wealth producers. Their time will come.
Armstrong, "I cannot stress enough that Mario Draghi has really destroyed the European economy on an unprecedented scale."
"His policy of perpetual low to negative interest rates is a barbaric ancient theory based on the assumption that if you make it insanely cheap to borrow, people will run out and buy everything"
They will buy speculative instruments, NOT tangibles.
"He has kept this failed theory up for 10 years without success. He owns the bulk of sovereign debt in Europe; he cannot sell or even stop rolling over without causing a major debt crisis among member states. "
"Add to that the fact that Draghi never considered the impact upon those who saved all their lives to retire and suddenly discovered their life savings earned nothing"
"With the economy turning down hard once again into 2020, he has no means to even try to pretend he can manage the economy. We are headed into a NEW ERA in which the belief in central banks and government being in control is about to collapse before our eyes."
, NO, not the FED !
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...the-nightmare/

"Number of Days Congress Works in Session a Year. The House of Representatives has averaged 138 "legislative days" a year since 2001, according to records kept by the Library of Congress. That's about one day of work every three days, or fewer than three days a week."
If they do that for 5 years, they get lifetime retirement of 80% of their $174,000 annual salary.
"Public local, state, and federal pension funds are in even worse shape: $7 TRILLION short on what they promised to pay retired government workers."
This true but, congress gets retirement money out of the general fund, NOT the pension fund.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...r-own-pensions
The rest of us will eat cake. They just don't have much time to work because they are busy accepting bribes and campaign money.

Along with congress, there is another entity that doesn't have to worry about finance.
https://sputniknews.com/us/201903131...dget-proposal/
The spooks seem to get all the money they need.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/20...eard-of-trump/
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  #3185  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:28 PM
wayne.ct wayne.ct is offline
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The party died!

Daniel 5. The core of the problem for the ruling class in that story/parable/myth (Whatever!) is a lack of understanding. Okay, perhaps that is not the core issue. Back on track... One component of the story is that the king and his counselors could not understand the words and the message behind the words. Everyone else in the city most likely understood the situation on the ground. The enemy was in the process of diverting the river, a major engineering achievement for that era. But the troops on the ground were politically correct and did not close the river gates. The words and their meaning were obvious to the seer. Enough of that.

The PTB refuse to understand money, morals, etc. and the mindless followers are trapped in a web of lies. The father of lies is gleeful. The courtesans use double entendre and the sheep follow right along. Nothing will surprise me. It should be obvious but some people refuse to listen or understand. People are getting dumber, not wiser. I have no words to explain because every word I might use seems to have been compromised by the sophisticated intelligentsia.
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  #3186  
Old 03-16-2019, 04:53 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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MMT to euthanasia

wayne ct. Yes, it's a sad situation. I just try to bring a little clarity out of the confusion. I also try to discard the B.S.

This is the short version tonight.
3/15 BoJ’s never-ending crisis is a lesson to the world’s central banks – Bloomberg
China's Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn't Working)

"But, after over 60 different 'stimulus' measures in the last few months and last night's promises, nothing seems to be working as China's economic data continues to tumble."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-isnt-working
The Fed’s failures are mounting – Danielle DiMartino Booth
3/15 China premier vows no massive stimulus as Beijing launches massive stimulus – ZH
3/15 Central banks stuck in holding pattern – Reuters


The whole Central Bank model is going down the drain.
Armstrong, "The Fed was created to be funded by the banks themselves to effectively be their bailout institution. As I have written before, the Fed “stimulated” for it was authorized to buy ONLY corporate paper when banks could not lend. Because of WWI, the politicians directed the Fed to only buy government debt"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ctional-dream/
The FED was hitched up to birth the warfare state. After Bretton Woods, the FED was hitched up to birth the welfare State. Warfare being the most important of the 2. After all, social security was raided to fund wars.
" The ECB and the Bank of Japan fund their government debts without end, and they have both destroyed their bonds markets"
It is only a lack of transparency that allows the FED to appear to have stopped QE.
"The ECB cannot sell the bonds it has already bought. They have already stated that as bonds mature, they will reinvest that money aside from any new purchases because there is no market. Since they have destroyed their own bond markets, we are UNLIKELY to see a crash if there are no bids and offers. They will simply pretend that sovereign debt is perfectly fine."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...a-free-market/
The BOJ prints trillions to uphold their markets. Is that any different from MMT?
The ECB prints trillions to uphold State debt. Is that any different from MMT?
The FED is doing the same thing,,, only, on the sly.
Where does this all lead. If the CB prints whatever money is needed in the economy, what happens to the money renter?
Keynes had it all figured out.
https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/neg...y-dc3131d8d85e

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...21800911004873
Remember that the anti-MMT people claim that we would get high inflation. Didn't happen in Japan. Even China has low inflation in most sectors.
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  #3187  
Old 03-16-2019, 01:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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From war finance to welfare finance

From a paper by the G-30, "Central banks were first established in the 17th
century, with the primary purpose of providing war finance to governments"
Page 17 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...dV8tWdVR3unFAt

In the case of America, the government is primarily focused on providing war finance.
In the case of Europe, the ECB is focused more on financing the welfare State.
Government is a parasite that has deeply embedded itself into society. 51% of Americans rely on a check from the State. The parasite is just taking TOO much. MUCH of this is brought on by emerging automation.
Part of this is brought on by the demographic crash. There just aren't enough workers to support the elderly non-workers.
G. W. F. Hegel believed that everybody should work for the State. Socialism has never worked out because it removes all motivation. Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressure and the non-producers. Socialism is currently financed and upheld by the Central Banks. What happens to the non-producers when the Central Bank model fails?

"A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth"
“Central banks have described their actions as ‘buying time’ for governments to finally resolve the crisis"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...0S40VE20151010
So, how does the government resolve the crisis of falling population?,, falling purchasing power?,.,,
They don't have a clue.

"When it comes to economic booms and busts, not to mention currency instability, there is no greater perpetrator than government-controlled central banking. "
"The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the control of their respective nation’s monetary and banking systems and mismanaged them. There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction."
"Skidelsky: Central Banking Equals Stable Prices and Markets

Skidelsky argues against those who wish to denationalize and privatize money and the monetary system. That is, he criticizes those who want to take control of money and monetary affairs out of the hands of the government, and, instead, put them back into the competitive, private market. He opposes those who wish to separate money from the State.":
https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-th...mic-stability/

The vast majority of bureaucrats "working" for the State know that they would have no job in the competitive private sector. Both the deep state and the blob state together are overpowering the productive sector. A collapse of the sovereign bond market will leave all of them without employment.
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  #3188  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:31 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The fallout from saving the money renters.

Lots of notes.
"Take a look at the S&P Value Index vs the S&P Growth Index. Shunned!"
https://3lrofj3556kl9zu0p27yma51-wpe...9/03/sc-31.png
ALL credit bubbles came to an end. We are approaching the end of a debt super-cycle. The State is the biggest deadbeat borrower. Both the state and the banks are trying to hold back a collapse. This bubble is bigger than all previous bubbles.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-stand...2019-03-14.png
Another graph, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=4FcBQujG

"On top of a poor month for job creation, Dow Transports also declined for 11 straight days last week, which hasn’t happened since 1971. The last time transports fell 10 straight days was in 2009 amid the great recession."
https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-sc...c-foundations/

"Alan Greenspan took another giant policy leap - orchestrating a steep yield curve. By dropping short-term rates to an at the time incredible 3% - banks could borrow fed funds and invest in government debt yielding 8% - magically replenishing depleted capital.
This maneuver empowered the rebuilding of banking system capital ",,,
FROM the saver and taxpayer. .1% paid on savings and,,, loans at 8%. NICE spread.
"They surely didn’t realize it at the time, but our central bank had begun sliding down a most slippery slope: The Fed had created unprecedented incentives for leveraged speculation."
" Did the Greenspan Fed simply not appreciate of the effects of this massive GSE credit creation – or did they clandestinely support it?
"
Preserve the money renters at all costs.
"In the dozen years since Volcker, the Greenspan Fed had made incredible strides in “activist” policymaking. In 1987, the early-nineties, 1995 and again in 1998, the Fed was content to use new tools and assume new power in the name of fighting deflation and depression risks. Speculative finance turned more powerful at every turn."
In the name of fighting deflation in the upper loop.

"Greenspan had profoundly changed central banking. Bernanke, with his radical monetary views including the “government printing press” and “helicopter money,” took things to a whole new level. Greenspan was happy to manipulate rates, yield curves, market perceptions and incentives for leveraged speculation - all in the name of developing a powerful new monetary transmission mechanism."
Yes, from Main st. to Wall st.
"he Bernanke Fed and others moved deliberately to force savers out of safety and into inflating risk markets. "
The money renters were happy.
"Global markets went to parabolic speculative excess. From February 2016 lows to 2018 highs, the Nasdaq Composite surged 93% and the small cap Russell 2000 jumped 85%."
Viagra laced with cocaine.

"Over the past three decades, things evolved from monetary policy operating subtly to encourage/discourage bank lending at the margin - to central banks expressly working to ensure that Trillions of levered holdings and perhaps tens of Trillions of speculative positions don’t face risk aversion and liquidation."
Money renting is a very crowded trade but, the CBs don't want any of them to lose a penny.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works

9 steps to socialism.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ther...etal-breakdown
3/16 Foreigners sell US Treasuries for 3rd month in January – Reuters
Everybody is trying to raise cash.
3/17 Italy courting China is a masterstroke of chaos – Tom LuongoIt may look good now. Just wait til China demands infrastructure in case of default.
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  #3189  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:45 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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It pays to own the governent

The MMT people say that GOV can just print the money that it needs. RIDICULOUS ! They say that the GOV doesn't need to tax. RIDICULOUS !
BUT, the Grace Commission formed by Ronald Reagan reported that not one dime of tax money goes to support the government. So, who does it support?
https://archive.org/stream/TheGraceC...n1984_djvu.txt

Armstrong,
"I support cutting income taxes to ZERO. The government should just create the money it needs to cover its expenses. Let’s get real here! All national debts, including Germany, show that on average 70% of the debt is just accumulative interest. So that is money out the back-door."
Ah yes, it goes to the bankers.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...s/trump-taxes/

The 16th amendment, Passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913,
How very strange, we got an income tax at the same time that we got a central bank.
Then, there is the question of legitimacy,
https://www.givemeliberty.org/featur...otratified.htm
So, one way or another, your taxes go to the bankers. Then, the bankers take that money AND your savings,,,, then they INVEST. What that means is; they front-run everything that you want or need to buy. Keynes said that with unfolding automation, we would all be so rich that we would only need to work 15 hours a week. That certainly wouldn't leave much for the bankers to skim off.

Armstrong, "I asked what was this all about? The German government had approved that they could lay off 25% of its workforce. At the last minute, the government changed its mind and told the company it was not fair for them to pick and choose. Instead, the company had to make a flat offer with a pay-out of about €150,000 to volunteer to surrender your job. The end results were devastating. Every worker who knew they could get a job with no problem took the €150,000 and left. The company lost its best workers and was then left with the very people they wanted to get rid of. The board directors resigned for they did not want their career associated with what they expected to be a disaster over the years ahead."
Everywhere that you look, it's all about JOBS.

Armstrong, "the ECB unable to do anything whatsoever and the European people have become Draghi’s collateral damage. With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, we are headed into a hard landing for the bottom of the Economic Confidence Model come 2020."
"We are in a global recession that has been underway with economic growth rates running just a fraction of what they use to be decades ago."
By strange coincidence, birth rates and population growth are just a fraction of what they used to be decades ago.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-hard-landing/

3/18 Why this rally smells funny – Rick’s Picks
Smells like soap bubbles.
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  #3190  
Old 03-19-2019, 03:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Print money to save jobs,,, just keep the wages low

I find excellent articles at Zero Hedge BUT, when I log on to their site, this is what it does to my computer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JKBQnNs_wk
As everyone knows, the rich run the government, not the voters. The rich in a high-wage country will always try to force wages down to compete with low-wage countries. Here is a good article showing how the Aussie government has passed numerous laws to destroy collective bargaining and depress wages.
https://theconversation.com/ultra-lo...olicies-113357
This has come full circle to where the global mean wage just won't support anything except a survival economy with no discretionary spend on things like children.

Years of research shows that; when sovereign debt crosses the 80% of GDP figure, investors are driven away. States have always needed outside investors to buy their bonds.
3/19 Japan’s debt passes 250% of GDP – Asia Times
Since the BOJ is printing fresh money to buy GOV debt, there is little worry that investors won't buy it. The BOJ also owns 70% of exchange traded funds. They are buying up everything that isn't nailed down.
Armstrong laments that Draghi has destroyed confidence in the European sovereign debt markets. Wait a minute. As long as Draghi and Kuroda keep printing, they don't need to worry about confidence. Japan has hit 250% and hyperinflation never appeared.
Was this a test case to see if MMT could be implemented without inflation risk?
3/18 “Euro’s failure magnified the difference between eurofication and japanificiation” – ZH
They're working out the details.

If only the CB has a printing press, EVERYBODY is dependent on the CB for liquidity. That includes the banks. Will the State / CB take over the private banks if / when they crash?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...able-doom-loop
Is this a prelude to "euthanasia of the rentier"?
Just how long can the fantasy bubble keep going?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...spread-fantasy

"Nonfinancial corporate bonds outstanding in the U.S. grew from approximately $2.2 trillion in 2008 to approximately $5.7 trillion at year-end 2018…"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rything-bubble
The BOJ has pumped in trillions by buying exchange traded funds. Governments worldwide are buying up corporate paper to keep the zombies alive. After all, the Zombies employ lots of people.
The State has a choice. Keep people employed working for the State and the zombies OR, let it all go and lose legitimacy in the eyes of the population.
Good article on the decline of globalization.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...02qrh6mlQfh2Q/

Government is growing faster than the private sector. That has never worked out before.
http://www.batr.org/totalitariancoll...sm/031919.html
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  #3191  
Old 03-20-2019, 03:28 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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CBs and money renting

Rome, "But then growth peaked, the empire became extended, it could no longer afford its military might, its culture peaked, internal strive became pervasive while foreign adversaries kept challenging its predominance and the people lost trust in its government as corruption and nepotism became the primary means to power and influence."
https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/18/the-end-of-trust/

Armstrong, "ANSWER: The key to pushing capital fleeing into the stock market will be the decline in public confidence within the government. Everything is unfolding on schedule. You see turmoil everywhere from Canada to France and Italy. The level of people distrusting government is climbing. Normally, it will take a 45% level of people turning against the government to set off the spark."
"So no, there still does not appear to be a major crash of 50-62% (stocks) as the majority are calling. The market is testing resistance, but here too we do not see this as breaking out and taking off just yet. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...or-crash-burn/
The government has made promises that it just can't keep in the area of pensions. If FED GOV keeps funding an unnecessary military instead of pensions, this will definitely set off a good dose of hatred.

Armstrong has a definite hatred of president Jackson for killing the Central Bank.
"Here is a chart of the stock market with the US Long Bond. Andrew Jackson paid off the national debt in 1835. President Jackson also shut down the Second Bank of the United States on Sept. 10th, 1833. Jackson announced that the government would no longer deposit federal funds in the Second Bank of the United States, which was a quasi-governmental national bank."
Jackson broke the "piggy bank" that the bankers were using to create price inflation in their favor.
"Then during July 1836, Jackson issued the Specie Circular. Under this act, the government would only accept gold or silver in payment for federal land."
This was a mistake because it pulled money to the GOV and created deflation of circulating money.
"By shifting deposits to state banks, Jackson set off a major crisis undermining the entire monetary system. He effectively devalued all the circulating currency in the country with one law – the Specie Circular. Suddenly, there was a run on gold. The Panic of 1837 unfolds as New York banks suspended all withdrawals of gold. Jackson created massive austerity, but he had shut down the national debt as well. This was a very complicated financial crisis with an interesting mix of events combining together"

Yes, the banks suspended withdrawal. It wasn't Jackson who created austerity. It was the banks refusal to return the money that they held to the rightful owners.
"Jackson effectively canceled all paper money by refusing to accept it and this resulted in a gold panic forcing the banks to suspend all payments. People were rushing to banks to exchange their paper currency for gold and banks could not meet the demand and suspended all demands for gold."
More half truths. Paper currency could be used for everything except for purchase of land from FED GOV. It was the banks over-issuance of debt paper based on a limited gold supply.

"Each cycle that hits is slightly different characters and reasons. I highly warn against buying any sovereign debt whatsoever. Any federal debt to hold must be short-term no more than 90-day paper. In the case of the Hard Times of 1837-1842, the stock market crashed in terms of gold because all money was effectively canceled. Paper money collapsed as notes lost their legal-tender value. Thus, only gold rose in value as the medium of exchange thanks to Jackson refusing to accept anything but gold.

This time around, bonds are legal tender so that is the money that will decline in value far more than anyone expects. Both the Bank of Japan and the ECB in Europe have wiped out their bonds markets for they have been the primary buyer of government debt which they cannot now resell."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/h...s-in-a-crisis/

The money-renters always demand a legal tender that is flexible so that they can speculate. Only a State issued paper currency fits this description because the State has taxing powers to fill the treasury. Private banks don't have taxing power so they can not respond to a bank run. A flexible currency is generally a good idea. BUT, any entity that is allowed to print currency will always over-print. It was the State that forced the FED to print to support wars.
What is needed is DISCIPLINE.
What politicians need is VOTES.
War mongers need WARS.

As the corporatocracy increases in wealth and power, it displaces public governance.
https://theoutline.com/post/7216/we-...=3&zi=g2jpwyqs

Regulatory capture is working out well for the money-renters.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ules-unimpeded
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Old 03-21-2019, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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China crash before U.S. crash

Much of the liquidity flowing into American markets came from China. Trump wants to end globalism and, that means decoup0ling from China.
US and China: From Co-Evolution to Decoupling | YaleGlobal Online
https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/...ion-decoupling
. Trump doesn't particularly want a trade agreement with China, He just wants them to crash. They are extremely vulnerable in the event of big job losses. Everything was previously focused on an export economy. They took the jobs of their best customers and, that model is broken. They planned to switch to a domestic consumption model. That didn't work because they couldn't raise wages.
Currently, they ( and the West print money to keep zombie employees working in zombie companies. It's not working out too well for them.

China is now locked in a battle; economic growth or political authority. Somebody is going to get the shaft. Trump is shoving the collapse ahead.
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...alclearmarkets

3/19 China’s banks have a hidden wave of bad debt – Bloomberg
3/20 Chinese companies defaulting at an ‘unprecedented’ level – CNBC


3/20 FedEx just warned the whole globe is slowing – CNBC
3/19 The bloodbath in U.S. shale stocks continues: worst is yet to come – SRSrocco Report
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Old 03-21-2019, 02:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Distortions eevrywhere,,, the CBs are stuck with "control P"

The Philips Curve is an equation that was previously relied on for economic forecasting.

Economics Help
The Phillips curve is an economic concept developed by A. W. Phillips stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment"
Now, there is general agreement that the Philips Curve is no longer accurate or applicable.
Unemployment is touted as 3.8% even though there are 96 million of working age who are not in the labor force. I suspect that the Philip's Curve has been highly distorted by automation and lies.

An inverted yield curve is the interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments.
A yield curve inversion shows that investors lack confidence in the near future.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kenRSs6okELVQ/
Most interest rates are all referenced to the 10 year treasury note. Since the FED GOV is printing to buy Treasury bonds, you can bet that any reference to the 10 year note and any inversions is based on bogus information.
3/20 10-year Treasury yield dives to the lowest in a year – CNBC
Just the same, investors are completely focused on these inversions.

Powell raised interest rates and caused a worldwide coronary infarction. Trump definitely wants a weak dollar and, Powell was going the opposite direction. After the markets cratered, Powell changed his mind. He didn't want the blame for setting off a meltdown.
3/21 “Fed returns to the punchbowl”: the biggest surprises in today’s Fed decision – ZH
3/21 Dollar slammed by dovish Fed; pound remains weak – CNBC
It is now painfully clear that fresh money printing is the only thing that is keeping markets alive. So, why did Powell raise rates?
3/21 Banks sink the most in 2 months, bearing the brunt of Fed’s dovish turn – Bloomberg
The banks are toast without fresh blood.
Not to mention stocks.
3/20 S&P 500 turns positive after Fed forecasts no rate hikes this year – CNBC

You can see socialism in action without having to leave America. The Dems are completely irresponsible when it comes to buying votes with promises.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...ic_mayors.html

3/20 Abe describes BoJ’s inflation goal as means to spur growth – Reuters
Their population is falling and their foreign markets are shrinking but, growth will come back if they just give the banks enough money.
3/20 Canada sees 20 percent jump in bond issuance as deficit climbs – Reuters
So, the future little canucks will get to pay this off.
3/20 Most people want higher taxes on rich to support poor – OECD – Guardian
Sorry, this just isn't the answer.
3/20 “Today’s EU is the embodiment of bureaucratic hubris” – Claudio Grass
A jobs program for useless paper-pushers.

3/21 Italy: bus driver abducts 51 children, sets vehicle on fire – AP
Is it any surprise that he is from Senegal?
3/19 Consistency: the success of the Cayman Islands – SWP
Super Rich Hide $21 Trillion Offshore, Study Says - Forbes

Another interesting development, https://www.rt.com/news/454259-europ...rnment-survey/
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Old 03-22-2019, 04:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Worldwide QE,,, the cure for poverty

Last night's FOMC meeting made it official: the Fed has thrown in the towel, and central banks are committed to defying the business cycle
"The Fed’s mission ever since has been a determined exercise in defying the business cycle, and replacing it with an ever-expanding credit cycle.
the difference now is that we are reaching the most major inflection point since the global financial crisis as central bank policy medicine rapidly loses what little potency it had. In the meantime, the harm to the patient has only been adding up: the economic system is suffering fatigue from QE-driven inequality, malinvestment, a lack of productivity, never-ending cheap money and a total lack of accountability. "

"The UK’s biggest challenge may not even be the circus act known as Brexit, but rather the collapsing UK credit cycle which our economist Christopher Dembik has put at risking a 2% drop in UK GDP. If nothing changes over the next six to nine months, and nothing will change, the UK economy will be in free fall. Forget Brexit, UK assets are simply mispriced from the lack of credit juice in the pipeline."
Well shoot. Tell the BOE to print faster to save all the money renters.

'My economic studies really only taught me three useful things (but then, I’m a terrible economist):

• The yield curve is never wrong.
• Say’s law (supply creates its own demand).
• Productivity is everything."

The yield curve never met so much QE
Supply does NOT create it's own demand when non-consuming robots are creating the supply
Productivity without consumption is a complete waste of time and materials. That's where the endless wars come into the picture.
https://www.home.saxo/insights/conte...hat-comes-next

"First understand what the capitulation means: It means that all their 2018 statements of optimism and predictions of raising rates in 2019 and previous insistences on a balance sheet roll-off being on”autopilot” were all wrong. Reality and markets rolled over them. They didn’t see the slowdown coming and only after markets dropped 20% in December did they change their policy stance and have now cemented a dovish stance for years to come."
"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish, none will reduce their balance sheets. 10 years after the financial crisis no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally.
I venture to guess which means funding requirements will explode higher beyond even the current absurdity of already running trillion deficits at the end of a long business cycle."
"The Fed started cutting rates in December another 3 months later. The recession began in March of 2001, 4 months later.

Compare to now:
"And here we are another 3 months later and markets are at risk of peaking here, engaged in a major topping pattern. So you see this script aligns much more closely to the 2000 scenario versus the 2007 scenario."
https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/2...ion-is-coming/

"Varoufakis explains that Europe needs a new source of investment money that does not involve higher taxes or government deficits. DiEM25 proposes for this purpose “an investment-led recovery, or New Deal, program … to be financed via public bonds issued by Europe’s public investment banks (e.g. the new investment vehicle foreshadowed in countries like Britain, the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund in the European Union"
"Public development banks already have a successful track record in Europe, and their debts are not considered debts of the government. They are financed not through taxes but by the borrowers when they repay the loans. Like other banks, development banks are moneymaking institutions that not only don’t cost the government money but actually generate a profit for it. "
"Roosevelt’s New Deal was largely funded through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC), a public financial institution set up earlier by President Hoover. Its funding source was the sale of bonds, but proceeds from the loans repaid the bonds, leaving the RFC with a net profit. The RFC financed roads, bridges, dams, post offices, universities, electrical power, mortgages, farms, and much more; and it funded all this while generating income for the government."
Wait, what about the Wall Street banks?

"The invariable objection to that solution is that it would act as an inflationary force driving up prices, but as argued in my earlier article here, this need not be the case. There is a chronic gap between debt and the money available to repay it that actually needs to be filled with new money every year to avoid a “balance sheet recession.” As UK Prof. Mary Mellor formulates the problem in Debt or Democracy (2016), page 42:

A major contradiction of tying money supply to debt is that the creators of the money always want more money back than they have issued. Debt-based money must be continually repaid with interest. As money is continually being repaid, new debt must be being generated if the money supply is to be maintained.… This builds a growth dynamic into the money supply that would frustrate the aims of those who seek to achieve a more socially and ecologically sustainable economy."
"In addition to interest, says Mellor, there is the problem that bankers and other rich people generally do not return their profits to local economies. Unlike public banks, which must use their profits for local needs, the wealthy hoard their money, invest it in the speculative markets, hide it in offshore tax havens, or send it abroad.

To avoid the cyclical booms and busts that have routinely devastated the US economy, this missing money needs to be replaced; and if the new money is used to pay down debt, it will be extinguished along with the debt, leaving the overall money supply and the inflation rate unchanged"
Very good idea,,, very good article.
https://ellenbrown.com/2019/03/21/mo...-public-banks/

Keynes, "Keynes wrote a lovely little essay, Economic Prospects for our Grandchildren, in which he airily forecast that in a century's time (he wrote in 1930) we would all be working 15 hour weeks. For we would have, essentially, conquered the economic problem of scarcity."
"But this is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long
run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the
standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be
between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. There would be nothing"
"Economic growth over that time has been of that order. We are about 8 times richer than our grandparents were in the early 1930s."
NOT true, we can't afford a house or kids.

"However, here's the crucial forecast by Keynes:

For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody
will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for
ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties
and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread
thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely
shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the
problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the
old Adam in most of us!"

Keynes was aware of the problems with human nature.
So, how were the PTB to keep us working full time? They had to steal the value of our wages through constant currency inflation,,, resulting in price inflation. The bankers did their part by taking our money and, speculating against us. The State charged us about 40% of our income for taxes to keep us on the treadmill. President Reagan said that the grace commission proved that "not one dime of tax money goes to the federal government. "
Walter Burien at CAFR 1 has proved that GOV doesn't need to collect taxes. 37,000 government agencies have about $237 trillion stashed away from fines, fees and licenses. The University of California system reports in their Annual CAFR report that they have assets of $91 billion. One example of 37,000.
https://www.cafr1.com/

The PTB constantly suck dry the producer. The growing problem is that; robots don't pay taxes. Say's Law was created at a time when everything was produced by a worker who received a wage.
Determined to keep us working, the military-industrial-banking complex creates enormous quantities of goods to be destroyed,,, rather than improving our standard of living.
The emerging socialists talk of taking wealth from the super rich. This really isn't a viable idea. Wages can't really be raised in a competitive economy. What does that leave?
After Great Depression I, the Glass-Steagal act took our savings away from the banks so that they could not frontrun and speculate against us.
Slick Willy repealed this with the Graham-Leachy-Bliley act.

A return of Glass-Stegal would reverse decades of price inflation.
Armstrong said that FED GOV should just print the money it needs to pay it's bills. This would remove the income tax drain on everybody.
The finance sector went from being 7% of the economy to being about 40% of the economy. How can a parasite grow so big when it is just a non-producer? 50% of the cost (average) of everything that you buy is for is for upstream finance.
A realistic cure for poverty is not,,, raising wages or taking money from the rich.
Pry loose the finance sector from the jugular vain of commerce.
Then, maybe we can talk about the 15 hour work week.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:19 PM
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Smoke and Mirrors against the FED, the real low down on Trump's
magic wand. Donald has been a money man from his youth.

Bringing you up to speed. Chop chop.


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Old 03-24-2019, 04:40 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Crusade for MMT vs the bakers

It is getting more difficult every day to see the big picture and; how and where it is moving.
The Fed has surrendered and here’s what comes next – Saxo
Doing harm with uber-dovish – Credit Bubble Bulletin
The real end of the bond market – Alhambra Partners

]No one knows how monetary policy works – Credit Bubble Bulletin
3/24 The Fed’s in over its head…and chaos is mounting – Ron Paul
3/23 Schiff: Fed not getting it right; it’s proving how much it got wrong – SA
3/23 U.S. Treasuries signal trouble, stocks fall on global growth worries – Reuters


OK, you get the idea. It's not just the FED. The ECB and BOJ are a big mess. BOE isn't far behind. The BOJ has effectively shown that you can create debt almost without limit and still not get much price inflation. Armstrong has said to avoid ALL sovereign debt. There is one exception though.
Just business: British & US investors gobble up Russian government bonds
OK, so, sovereign bond markets are a lost cause. Keep in mind that this bond market is how the State finances itself,,, ignoring taxes.
There are 200 PHDs working for the FED. Undoubtedly, they have a pretty good idea where this is going. Powell gave it the old "college try" but, failed as expected.
3/23 The Fed has given up: get ready for more QE – Mises Institute
That is pretty much assured.

Unlimited QE has pretty much worked in Japan because they hold "all" their debt internally. Since bond buyers have pretty much deserted the BOJ, ECB and FED, this would argue that the respective Treasuries will have to openly buy State debt. Kuroda, and now Draghi have already done this. Draghi had to fire up QE again ONE MONTH after it ended. Powell had to reverse course ONE MONTH after he started rate hikes. Manufacturing is the prime value-added industry. Once it ran away, there was very little true earnings left.

3/23 U.S. runs largest monthly budget deficit on record in February – MarketWatch
3/23 Near full inversion: 10-year note inverts with 1-month T-bill – Mish
3/23 Politics has failed, now central banks are failing – Charles Hugh Smith

This isn't a completely accurate assessment.
Parkinson's Law definition is - an observation in office organization: the number of subordinates increases at a fixed rate regardless of the amount of work ..
Observation that "work expands to fill the time available for its completion," and that a sufficiently large bureaucracy will generate enough internal work to keep itself 'busy' and so justify its continued existence without commensurate output.

Over 22 million work for the government. This could accurately be called socialism.
Since the State doesn't actually produce anything, it must suck blood from the producers. BUT, every additional $1 of taxes reduces the producing economy by $3.

U.S gov takes about 40% in taxes and is reducing the productive economy. It turns to the bond markets to finance itself and avoid additional tax. Since it perpetually rolls over these bonds, it only has a finance cost, not a repayment cost. The State has pissed away the confidence of bond buyers AND has reached the practical limits on taxation.
All the debate that you hear about MMT is just a discussion to get MMT drug out into the open.
The full inversion of the 10 year vs the 1 month note suggests that there is zero confidence in the U.S. sovereign market.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UatxHYqcpzsQg/
U.S. debt is rising exponentially. Powell and Trump are walking the FED to it's deathbed.

Greenspan, Yellen and Bernanke all worked to save the money renters at the cost of destroying the middle class. The CB gave the banks free money so that they did NOT have to pay interest on savings,,, to attract deposits. This saved the banks $400 billion a year on avoided interest payments to depositors. This also drove money into speculative investments that the bankers could easily skim.
All we hear about is the danger to money markets and credit markets. There is little-to-no consideration of the danger to the lower loop.
3/24 41% of New York residents say they can no longer afford to live there – Zero Hedge
So, either the treasury takes over money creation OR, the pitchforks and torches come out. The big question is; will the money be directed at the upper loop OR the lower loop?
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Old 03-24-2019, 05:18 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Latent socialism becoming untenable

3/24 41% of New York residents say they can no longer afford to live there – Zero Hedge
AND
New York city headed or bankruptcy.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...or-bankruptcy/
"In the case of New York City, their long-term debt is now more than $81,100 per household"
If you are invested in BTC, you should read these. Remember that BTC is a trading platform, NEVER a store-of-value.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ading-is-fake/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...itcoin-v-gold/

Armstrong, "ANSWER: That is one of the reasons the Deep State is fighting so hard to remove Trump. They simply believe it will take a seasoned Bureaucrat to sign such a bill. That said, a cashless society will be arriving in Europe before it will appear anywhere else. You must understand that all governments are in their death throes. Instead of stepping back and looking at this from a practical perspective, they remain fixated on their debt crisis that is propelling them to raising taxes. They firmly believe if everyone paid their taxes, they would have no problem. Of course, that is a fantasy. Whatever they collect will NEVER be enough to sustain their power."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...hless-society/

The more that fracking crashes, the more that we covet the oil in Venezuela.
https://journal-neo.org/2019/03/21/v...-oil-disaster/
3/23 Amount of global debt yielding less than 0 approaching 10 trillion – MarketWatch
Smells like MMT to me.
Rense, More than half of young people in America don't have a romantic partner
Is it MGTOW or, is it poverty?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-caused-crisis
3/24 Donald Trump picks fierce Fed critic for its board – USA Today An executioner ?
3/24 UK coup erupts: Theresa May cabinet in revolt, overthrow imminent – Zero Hedge Buy more Guinness and curry.

The blob State is willing to embrace MMT if that will keep their salaries going.

Don't move or bark,,,, or you're dead, https://www.fff.org/explore-freedom/...hoot-the-dogs/
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Old 03-26-2019, 04:16 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Emerging fascism in Europe,,,coming detonation of China and the contagionm

The NWO people are focused on centralization and CONTROL. The EU project has been long in the making regardless of viability. The PTB knew long ago that NWO would be bad for Great Britain. They figured that; once in place, it could never be gotten rid of.
https://archive.is/5pZSV
Most of the world is locked in a battle with an enemy that is eternal, voracious, unassailable, mindless and heartless. Humanity is losing that battle.
How Corporations Hijacked Personhood
"However, the lineage of The Dark Roots of the “Brussels EU” is most revealing and shocking.

“This article highlights the birth place of the "Brussels EU" on the drawing boards of the Nazi/IG Farben-coalition for a post-war Europe under their control." "Stripped out of the plot, was the ultimate goal that would eliminate any semblance of national identity. Global control always is founded upon the need to eradicate as much of cultural distinctiveness as a path to eliminate national sovereignty. "
"They established in the European Union a bureaucratic corporatist state so monolithic that most can be intimidated into silence by the very size of the project, and emasculated by the necessary remoteness of the powers involved."
Fascist Victory Behind the European Union
The forced immigration as part of the Kalergi Plan is designed to remove cultural distinctiveness. I suspect that it will remove ALL State cohesion. Especially since many of the immigrants are from garbage societies that bring their garbage attitudes with them.

Armstrong on climate change and food production. "They could care less about history or truth. The cycle is very clear. This major flooding which may destroy at least 6 billion bushels of wheat is a prelude to what is coming."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ood-shortages/
There was plenty of food during the great famine in Ireland. The British exported it. Same for the famines in India. The British maintained the population of India at 230 million for 100 years by holding rotation famines.

RE: stocks. lance Roberts shows a lot of statistics where he claims that financial investor services do not care at all about retail investors,,,, only the big funds. For their part, millennials don't trust anybody.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/for...y-be-the-last/

China:
China says that they are going to open their markets to foreign investors. WHY NOW ?

"China has acted as part of the life support system for the global economy during the past two decades. The other part being comprised of central banks. When the Tech Bubble burst back in 2000, China began printing and borrowing an incredible amount of money to create demand for fixed assets. After the Great Recession struck in 2008, Beijing again reacted with a massive government stimulus package that helped further inflate its real estate bubble and placed a pervasive bid under global markets. It was much the same in the wake of the global slowdown and earnings recession in the U.S. in 2016. In fact, China has been a humongous tailwind for growth since 2000; taking on about $38 trillion in new debt, which amounted to an incredible 150-percentage point increase in its debt to GDP ratio."

"Because of this untenable debt load, China recently began a much-needed policy of deleveraging, leaving many to speculate how long the global economy can sustain itself without its main growth engine. After all, the Red Nation had been responsible for roughly a third of global growth since 2008. However, and regrettably, China’s flirtation with austerity did not last very long. Authorities have now begun to reset priorities away from reigning in the nation’s $40 trillion worth of debt and are instead seeking to prop up the economy with yet more debt.

Some of the debt ratios in China not only exceed that of the U.S. but are also estimated to be twice as high as that of the average emerging market economy. Total debt has more than quadrupled since 2007. Total debt including household, corporate and government increased from 160% of GDP in 2008 to over 304% of GDP in 2018, according to the Institute of International Finance."
The State owned enterprises and regional governments were allowed to create mountains of debt. Imagine what would happen if every State in America had it's won printing press.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/micha...to-china-debt/
Everybody is talking about the necessity of decoupling from China.
That should be a real hoot.

Doug Casey, the perma-bear has 4 predictions. Umm, what can I say?
Prediction 1: The End of Retirement
Prediction 2: A White Male Privilege Tax, and Other Radical Tax Hikes
Prediction 3: Like Venezuela, Socialism Will Conquer the U.S.
Prediction 4: A New 9/11-Type Event – Real or a Contrived False Flag

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ld-falls-apart
Evidently, he isn't aware of who is in the White House,,, and will be for 5 more years.

Wells Fargo deserves honorable mention.
https://thomasdishaw.com/comprehensi...-and-counting/

GREAT charts on corporate debt, https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/23/co...e-debt-to-gdp/
3/25 One by one, global bond markets are flashing the same warning – Bloomberg
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Old 03-28-2019, 04:19 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Speedbumps everywhere you look

The bond markets are flashing RED and, everybody is talking about extended QE.
You should read this whole article,
https://medium.com/new-york-magazine...ed-51788cb6578
Trump has fired a full broadside at the blob State.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/suprem...state?ref=home
It appears that many States have reconciled themselves to printing money out of thin air to address the pension crisis. Nobody wants the elderly to die off by the millions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almos...210656147.html

John Perkins in "Confessions of an economic hitman" detailed how many national economies have been destroyed by Hitmen who arrange loans that are designed to impoverish a country and, rob it blind. He recently updated his book to say that the BIG prize is AMERICA.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almos...210656147.html
Something stinks.
https://www.caseyresearch.com/the-ci...-american-soil
Now, Trump and TSA are warning about an EMP attack.

3/27 World of negative debt expands to one-fifth of global market – Bloomberg
3/27 China’s industrial profits shrink most since late 2011 – Reuters
3/27 China’s local debt at ‘boiling point’ as Beijing seeks to boost growth – SCMP

3/26 China’s local government debt: the bomb that gets kicked down the road – Japan Times
Money printing just doesn't work like it used to. There is a new term for it. Instead of "monetary viagra" it is now monetary methadone.

Armstrong, "As shown here, the accumulative interest expenditures eventually exceed 70% of the total debt so the money never went to anything such as schools, roads, or social programs. I"
So, run the pixel presses even faster.
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:49 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Turkey, China,,,, crashing confidence

Armstrong, "Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early indicator of a recession. In that regard, it is conforming to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been warning that this last leg should be a hard landing economically for most of the world. Nonetheless, while the yield curve has inverted, it has done so in a rather unusual manner. This is NOT suggesting a major recession in the United States. Instead, it is a reflection of global uncertainty outside the USA."
When demand goes up, the interest rate goes down. This would suggest that there is enormous demand for U.S.Treasuries. The inversion of the yield curve would suggest that there is IMMEDIATE demand. Armstrong was correct in stating That U.S. markets would be upheld by investors fleeing shaky foreign markets.

Armstrong, "This Inverted Yield Curve is confirming that as the political chaos emerges around the world, the more foreign capital is parking in the dollar. With the May elections on the horizon in Europe, and the October elections in Canada, April elections in Israel … etc. etc., the capital flows are still pointing ever stronger into the dollar right now. The foreign capital has been buying the 10-year notes driving the spread lower"
"The Yield Curve (10-2yr) has not inverted. This is clearly showing the capital flight to the dollar that has been going on post-2014. This is not reflecting a major recession in the USA, but it is inferring that the ECM will be turning soon. We are in serious trouble globally as people are turning away from the established political norm "

This ECM,,, confidence model is all-important because the State needs to attract private investment.

Turkey is big news because Erdogan is cutting off the bankers / speculators.
"This week, Turkey further roiled markets by preventing foreign banks from accessing the liras they need to close out their swap positions. That’s made it almost impossible for bankers to short the lira or exit carry trades, and forced the overnight lira rate up to about 1,000 percent from 23 percent."
" banking stocks were down more than 7 percent and the yield on 10-year lira bonds rose 74 basis points to 18.23 percent."
A lack of confidence means that Turkey has to offer 18% interest.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tur...raveling-fast/
"Turkey’s overnight swap rates doubled from Tuesday’s levels, reaching more than 600 percent on Wednesday"

Armstrong, "The distortion in the yield curve is building with tremendous force. There are vast bids for US 90-day T-Bills from around the world and no offers. The shortage in US government paper is now being reported to us from repo desks around the world. There is a MAJOR PANIC in to the dollar as emerging markets come under a financial crisis, in part, instigated by Turkey. The government simply trapped investors and refuses to allow transactions out of the Turkish lira. Turkey’s stand-off with investors has unnerved traders globally, pushing the world ever closer to a major FINANCIAL PANIC come this May 2019.

There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt. Spanish banks are especially invested in Turkish debt where they hoped to get the highest yields expecting that the IMF would never let Turkey default. On top of this, banks have been lending to each other to also avoid parking money at the European Central Bank where they would be charged with a negative interest rate.

Currencies from South Africa’s rand to Brazil’s real are witnessing a spike in their expected volatility, signaling concern they may weaken the most along with the Turkish lira going into May. The price swings have evoked sudden deep-rooted fears that there may be an emerging market crash before the end of the year.

We will update on the private blog in more detail. However, keep in mind that this Inverted Yield Curve is by no means reflecting a US recession. This is a global financial panic unfolding on a grand scale. This is why we selected May for the WEC in Rome. This is far more than just politics. This is beginning to evolve into a serious liquidity crisis where we may yet see more countries try capital controls to save the day."

So what has all this capital flight caused?
3/28 China will cut real interest rate levels, lower financing costs – Reuters
China has admitted that they just can't dismount the credit tiger.
3/28 China makes unprecedented proposals on tech, trade talks progress – Reuters
The more desperate they get, the more concessions they will offer,,, and the more that Trump will stall.
3/27 China’s industrial profits shrink most since late 2011 – Reuters
Yes but, the tiger is hungry.
3/27 China’s local debt at ‘boiling point’ as Beijing seeks to boost growth – SCMP
So, they're going to throw more gas on the fire.
3/28 Bond yields on the canvas, Turkey’s lira on the ropes – Reuters
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Old 04-01-2019, 01:59 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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MMT and post-capitalism

Looking farther into the future.
"The president will certainly pin his re-election prospects upon a pulsating economy and an electric stock market.

That is, No.1 recognizes his path to victory runs through America’s wallets
If the economy plunges into recession and/or the market plummets on the timeline here envisioned… Trump will likely be heaved from office.
"All this can be ours without raising taxes to kingdom come. Salvation comes by way of the printing press."
The article goes on to assert that Trump will institute some kind of MMT so that he gets re-elected.
https://dailyreckoning.com/a-glimpse...uture-part-ii/

There is certainly going to be a long, messy transition period. But, transition to what?
Stephanie Kelton is a smart girl and was Bernie anders advisor. She says that we can print judiciously and fix everything.
https://stephaniekelton.com/
Frank Newman, "He recognizes that this runs counter to the conventional wisdom, but he insists that these truths simply follow from an accurate portrayal of “how the system actually works.” And he should know. He served as Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Prior to that, he was Vice Chairman of the Board and CFO of BankAmerica Corporation, and Executive Vice President and CFO of Wells Fargo Bank."
There are some good notes here.
https://stephaniekelton.com/2013/07/...ry-theory-mmt/
These are a couple of smart people. All they have to do is to input money into the economy for actual work done. The present system is; input the money to the speculators first. You can see why the speculators universally deride the idea.

I have to comment on one of ms. Kelton's claims. " We can provide a job for everyone."
At the moment, 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. 44 million are on direct assistance of some kind. There are a lot of people who just don't want a job. BUT, that isn't the main problem.

Boston Dynamics, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...-millions-jobs
Zero Hedge, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...olve-reproduce
So, you eliminate the salary of the producer and, you eliminate his purchasing power.
Zero Hedge, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...eath-dinosaurs

Now, there are some thinkers who have some plans.

The Meaning of Life in a World without Work
As technology renders jobs obsolete, what will keep us busy? Author Yuval Noah Harari examines ‘the useless class’ and a new quest for purpose.
The crucial problem isn’t creating new jobs. The crucial problem is creating new jobs that humans perform better than algorithms. Consequently, by 2050 a new class of people might emerge – the useless class. People who are not just unemployed, but unemployable.
The real problem will then be to keep the masses occupied and content. People must engage in purposeful activities, or they go crazy. So what will the useless class do all day?

One answer might be computer games. Economically redundant people might spend increasing amounts of time within 3D virtual reality worlds, which would provide them with far more excitement and emotional engagement than the “real world” outside. This, in fact, is a very old solution. For thousands of years, billions of people have found meaning in playing virtual reality games. In the past, we have called these virtual reality games “religions”.

In the end, the real action always takes place inside the human brain. Does it matter whether the neurons are stimulated by observing pixels on a computer screen, by looking outside the windows of a Caribbean resort, or by seeing heaven in our mind’s eyes? In all cases, the meaning we ascribe to what we see is generated by our own minds. It is not really “out there”. To the best of our scientific knowledge, human life has no meaning. The meaning of life is always a fictional story created by us humans.

If you have at home a teenage son who likes computer games, you can conduct your own experiment. Provide him with a minimum subsidy of Coke and pizza, and then remove all demands for work and all parental supervision. The likely outcome is that he will remain in his room for days, glued to the screen. He won’t do any homework or housework, will skip school, skip meals and even skip showers and sleep. Yet he is unlikely to suffer from boredom or a sense of purposelessness. At least not in the short term.
Soon, we will have the Holodeck to keep us entertained.
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/t...d-without-work

The end of capitalism has begun
"revived briefly a 20th-century dream: the forced destruction of the market from above. For much of the 20th century this was how the left conceived the first stage of an economy beyond capitalism. The force would be applied by the working class, either at the ballot box or on the barricades. The lever would be the state. The opportunity would come through frequent episodes of economic collapse.
Instead over the past 25 years it has been the left’s project that has collapsed. The market destroyed the plan; individualism replaced collectivism and solidarity"

" Capitalism, it turns out, will not be abolished by forced-march techniques. It will be abolished by creating something more dynamic that exists, at first, almost unseen within the old system, but which will break through, reshaping the economy around new values and behaviours. I call this postcapitalism."
"The coming wave of automation, currently stalled because our social infrastructure cannot bear the consequences, will hugely diminish the amount of work needed – not just to subsist but to provide a decent life for all."
"Second, information is corroding the market’s ability to form prices correctly. That is because markets are based on scarcity while information is abundant. The system’s defence mechanism is to form monopolies – the giant tech companies – on a scale not seen in the past 200 years, yet they cannot last. "

"Even now many people fail to grasp the true meaning of the word “austerity”. Austerity is not eight years of spending cuts, as in the UK, or even the social catastrophe inflicted on Greece. It means driving the wages, social wages and living standards in the west down for decades until they meet those of the middle class in China and India on the way up.
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Meanwhile in the absence of any alternative model, the conditions for another crisis are being assembled. Real wages have fallen or remained stagnant in Japan, the southern Eurozone, the US and UK. The shadow banking system has been reassembled, and is now bigger than it was in 2008. "
Neoliberalism, then, has morphed into a system programmed to inflict recurrent catastrophic failures. "
"That is because neoliberalism was the first economic model in 200 years the upswing of which was premised on the suppression of wages and smashing the social power and resilience of the working class. If we review the take-off periods studied by long-cycle theorists – the 1850s in Europe, the 1900s and 1950s across the globe – it was the strength of organised labour that forced entrepreneurs and corporations to stop trying to revive outdated business models through wage cuts, and to innovate their way to a new form of capitalism.

The result is that, in each upswing, we find a synthesis of automation, higher wages and higher-value consumption. "
"It is called “The Fragment on Machines”.

In the “Fragment” Marx imagines an economy in which the main role of machines is to produce, and the main role of people is to supervise them. He was clear that, in such an economy, the main productive force would be information. The productive power of such machines as the automated cotton-spinning machine, the telegraph and the steam locomotive did not depend on the amount of labour it took to produce them but on the state of social knowledge. Organisation and knowledge, in other words, made a bigger contribution to productive power than the work of making and running the machines."

"t suggests that, once knowledge becomes a productive force in its own right, outweighing the actual labour spent creating a machine, the big question becomes not one of “wages versus profits” but who controls what Marx called the “power of knowledge”."
"Marx imagined information coming to be stored and shared in something called a “general intellect” – which was the mind of everybody on Earth connected by social knowledge, in which every upgrade benefits everybody. In short, he had imagined something close to the information economy in which we live. And, he wrote, its existence would “blow capitalism sky high”."
https://www.theguardian.com/books/20...pitalism-begun
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Old 04-01-2019, 04:50 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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State sponsored excesses in China

The world is floating along on fresh debt / credit, mostly created in China. The Chinese were not about to depend on organic growth to raise up the country fast enough to avoid being subsumed by the Western powers. China started out by moving 300 million people into the cities. It ultimately aims to integrate about 70% of China's population, about 900 million people, into cities by 2025. Things are getting very crowded.
China to move half a million people from Beijing to new city .Xiongan

The only practical way to execute these enormous changes is with a State-run economy. China made a lot of mistakes. Since they took the jobs of their best customers, their export economy is shrinking. Since they created and fostered the global mean wage, they can't very well raise domestic wages to create a domestic consumer economy.
Not only that, domestic consumption is hampered by a falling population.
"China’s labor force fell to 897.29 million workers in 2018, falling by 0.5% in the seventh straight year of decline,"
China is losing markets and losing workers. The PBOC was printing credit instruments faster than the rest of the world combined. Their excess steel production was greater than the combined steel production of Japan, America and Europe combined.

Mises, "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.1"

Here are a couple of vids about the excesses of the State-run economy in China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGHmk4UeK_w&t=332s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKHyqO72oAo&t=66s

Leave it to the Chinese to get over-excited about credit and prosperity. The American economy is dependent on credit creation from China enough that a crash in China will bring down quote a few things here.
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Old 04-02-2019, 02:57 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Banks and war,,,, perverse incentive

In the times of the Roman Empire, wars were conducted pay-as-you-go. The silver content of the Denarius was diluted as a means for the State to pay it's bills. Rome had no Central bank. Moving forward several centuries, the States had to borrow money to go to war. Rothschild was famous and practical for lending to both sides. Later, war bonds were sold to the public to finance wars. This was somewhat inconvenient having to stir up lots of war sentiment before bonds could be sold. States needed to have a credit system in place to conduct wars.
The Bank of England was founded as a private bank in 1694 to act as banker to the Government. Central Banks were created primarily to finance wars for the State.
Go to war first and then, have the taxpayers pay off the debts. War finance demanded very high interest rates and was quite profitable. This created a perverse incentive for bankers to desire and promote wars.

"In the beginning of World War I, Woodrow Wilson had adopted initially a policy of neutrality. But the Morgan Bank, which was the most powerful bank at the time, and which wound up funding over 75 percent of the financing for the allied forces during World War I … pushed Wilson out of neutrality"
"Now, on the other side of that war, for example, was the National City Bank, which, though they worked with Morgan in financing the French and the British, they also didn’t have a problem working with financing some things on the German side, as did Chase "

Indeed, JP Morgan also purchased control over America’s leading 25 newspapers in order to propagandize US public opinion in favor of US entry into World War 1.
And many big banks did, in fact, fund the Nazis.

The relationship between Chase and the Nazis apparently was so cozy that Carlos Niedermann, the Chase branch chief in Paris, wrote his supervisor in Manhattan that the bank enjoyed “very special esteem” with top German officials and “a rapid expansion of deposits,” according to Newsweek."
https://www.zerohedge.com/contribute...re-behind-wars

Makow - Bankers Extended WWI By Three Years
https://rense.com/general72/cav.htm

After the battle of Bull Run, the confederate armies were just a few miles from a very lightly defended District of Colombia. It was a banker who convinced the General to stop where they were and NOT take the capital. This greatly extended the War of Northern Aggression
International Bankers and WW I - Mujahid Kamran
International Bankers and WW I
Apr 17, 2012 - It were the bankers who manipulated the horrific World War I

Masonic Bankers Started WWI to Exterminate Germany - henrymakow ...
https://www.henrymakow.com/illuminat...anned_wor.html

Bankers are Behind the Wars | Zero Hedge | Zero Hedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/contribute...re-behind-wars

Churchill, " WW II could have been avoided but, the bankers wanted it"
The Bretton Woods agreement was an attempt to keep States from expanding their bond market to finance wars. Unfortunately, this agreement left America in a prime position for starting wars.

"According to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report published in October 2007, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost taxpayers a total of $2.4 trillion by 2017 when counting the huge interest costs because combat is being financed with borrowed money."
"huge interest costs" That is the whole idea from the beginning.
US has spent $5.9 trillion on Middle East, Asia wars since 2001: Study
https://www.cnbc.com/.../us-has-spen...ia-wars-since-...

Now, America has a new problem. We don't have any credible threats of invasion but, the bankers need to keep the money rolling inm.
Price tag of the 'war on terror' will top $6 trillion soon - Military Times
https://www.militarytimes.com/.../pr...-6-trillion-so...

Everybody knows that there is a terrorist behind every tree and rock.

The original charter of the Federal Reserve forbade it from buying Government paper. This was all changed so that it could buy State paper to finance world wars. War finance is quite profitable but, the State seems to be going broke. The FED held $4.5 trillion of State debt that it planned to sell to investors. BUT, GOV debt is rising exponentially and seen as too risky.
The FED has only been able to unload 10% of this $4.5 trillion. it has been forced to stop balance sheet reduction.
The central problem to ALL of this is; banks have great motivation to precipitate and extend wars.
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Old 04-03-2019, 03:40 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Yang,,,, more bumps in the road

Andrew Yang is running for president. He has an interesting platform.
"There's this fallacy that if you're a truck driver and you get displaced by self-driving trucks, folks will say, “Oh, we'll just teach you how to code!” I think that’s presumptuous and insulting.

AY: That's exactly right. Why would we even think we can retrain coal miners and truck drivers to become software engineers? The only reason we think that is we've been brainwashed to equate economic value and human value, where if workers have lost their value in the marketplace then we think, OK, we have to transform you into something that does have value "
He has interesting ideas about robot taxes and UBI.
https://www.wired.com/story/andrew-y...-21st-century/

This is off topic but it is a FASCINATING article about the development of machine intelligence.
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/t...rld-with-logic

Armstrong, "China is set to curb all types of fentanyl production following a plea from the U.S. The Chinese-based drug has had a huge impact on U.S. citizens facing drug addiction."
Knowing Trump, it was NOT a plea.
Armstrong, " Since Quantitative Easing has failed, capital was driven into non-traditional investments to simply try to earn income. There were institutions buying farmland just to lease it out to get 5% annual income. Others ran off into Emerging Markets. Spanish banks are heavily invested in Turkey. The problem is that this trend has caused a liquidity crisis insofar as capital has been invested in assets that are not liquid."
"The combination of investment shifts into real estate, Emerging Markets, and corporate buybacks have created an interesting risk factor for liquidity during a financial panic."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/p...uidity-crisis/
Remember that everything is bought on margin / leverage. In the event of a panic, there will be enormous margin calls. There just won't be any liquidity available to meet all the demands.

Armstrong, "The sheer demographics warn that more people will move into retirement, increasing expenditures at a faster pace than there are younger generations to compensate. This means that expenditures will rise and revenues will decline. Even if we were talking about governments that actually did pay off debt, they would still not be able to do so once we pass 2020."
"They have not yet reached the point where they will come to terms with the fact that this is a fictional world in which they dream of endless powers and they will prevail in the end. We have gone past the point of no return. We now require structural change and FAST!!!!!!!"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-of-no-return/

4/02 PMI data: recession in German manufacturing is worse than thought – Business Insider
4/02 Durable-goods orders slump 1.6% in February and investment slackens again – MW
4/02 Analyst slaps $42 target on Lyft — 42% below its IPO price – CNBC
4/02 Walgreens shares slide on missed earnings, lower forecast – CNBC
4/02 Retirement crisis: In America most will be unable to afford a ‘solid life’ – CNBC

3/29 Even high-income households can’t keep up with California home prices – Zillow
3/29 Median-priced homes still unaffordable in nearly 75% of US counties – Real Deal

Rense, Americans Borrowed $88 Billion to Pay for Health Care Last Year
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Old 04-03-2019, 02:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Socialism, confidence and currency

So little time,,, so much BS to wade through.
4/02 London real estate suffers largest drop in a decade – Zero Hedge
3/29 London house prices suffer their biggest drop in 10 years as Brexit fears bite – CNBC

There you have it. Brexit fears are pulling down London RE prices. Not surprisingly, that is a lie.
It was the tax increases that killed the market.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/r...erty-market-2/

Europe has a lot more socialist tendencies than America. Socialism always, eventually breaks the bank. With the instant capital flight made possible by globalization, capital is fleeing to safer havens. CBs around the world are de-dollarizing as much as possible. BUT, capital movements by CBs are tiny compared to capital flows from private money. As the CBs de-dollarize, the private sector loads up on dollar-denominated instruments and investments. The CBs have failed utterly because they believe that currency strength is controlled by their laws and mandates. NOT true. Currency demand is controlled by investor confidence.

Armstrong, " Property investment shifted to the USA where they did not follow that socialist path against real estate as took place in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. As the currency declines, prices will find a bottom. But they will have to decline to compensate for the tax increases."

"They say we are de dollarizing etc. My off the cuff remark is that the central bank reserves are a tiny part of daily FX transactions."
"The central banks have been trying covertly to defend against the dollar. Even China and Russia are desperately trying to price things outside the dollar but this is not helping either.
The U.S. dollar’s share of currency reserves as reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell to a near five-year low going into the end of 2018. "
"The Central banks have been trying to use reserves to help support their respective currencies and suppress the dollar’s rally without any real impact. This is very similar to the crisis of 1927. Back then, there was also a capital flight from Europe. There too, the European share markets all peaked well before the US market in 1929. The capital flight from Europe to the dollar was massive. "

"They lobbied the US Fed to lower its interest rates, as they have been doing of late once again, in hopes of altering the capital flows and diverting the flow back to Europe. This is once again why the Fed has put raising rates on hold currently – the same strategy that failed back in 1927."
"The Fed indeed lowered the US interest rates in 1927 (see chart below). However, just as quantitative easing has failed, lowering the US interest rates resulted in the opposite expectation. Instead of the capital diverting back to Europe, it intensified into the US buying real estate creating the Florida land boom, and pushing the US share market to record highs in 1929."
"Even Paul Volcker back in 1978 in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle pointed out that this new era of Keynesian economics had utterly failed. Nonetheless, the economic community keeps trying to make it work. "
NOT true. It is the public sector that has tried to make Keynesian economics work.

"The Fed lowered the rates in 1927, then as the capital inflow really intensified pouring into the USA because of European politics, the Fed nearly doubled the interest rates into 1929 also without succeeding in preventing the stock market rally. The Fed will most likely make the same mistake once again following Keynesianism"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-sell-dollars/

Armstrong, "Anyone who wants to understand why the dollar is the only game in town, all they need do is look at the politics in Europe. It is just absurd. In Britain, Prime Minister Theresa May simply REFUSES to abandon her BREXIT plan no matter how many times Parliament votes against it."
"In all my years of politics, I have never seen such absolute stubbornness on the part of any world leader to the point that she will alienate her own party. "
May seems to think that she is the reincarnation of Thatcher. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-b...-idUSKCN1RB0R6

" If we needed any explanation as to why the British pound will collapse in the future, all we need do is look at this dynamic-duo May-Corbyn for the answer.

If you need any explanation as to why the dollar continues to be the currency to which everyone is fleeing, you have it in spades."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...her-own-party/

More notes about the PARASITE.
"Clearly, though, America’s colonial monetary experience exposes the fallacy at the heart of MMT (which might be better called postmodern monetary theory): the best monetary policy for the government is not necessarily the best monetary policy for the economy. As Samuel Sewall noted in his diary, “I was at the making of the first Bills of Credit in the year 1690: they were not Made for want of Money, but for want of Money in the Treasury.”
"While true that colonial governments controlled the money supply by directly issuing (or lendin) and then retiring pieces of paper, their macroeconomic track record was abysmal, except when they carefully obeyed the market signals created by sterling exchange rates and the price of gold and silver in terms of paper money."
We don't need no stinking market signals.
"South Carolina and New England were the poster colonies for inflation, in part because they bore the brunt of colonial wars against their rival Spanish and French empires. Relative peace and following market signals eventually stabilized prices in South Carolina. "

So, the economy does OK if we avoid wars.
"In New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, by contrast, legislatures followed market signals and were never pressed as hard militarily as the buffers to their north and south were. They therefore did not inflate away the value of their paper moneys by issuing too much. "
"After the French and Indian War, however, the Middle Colonies suffered from a large deflation rooted in wartime excesses, structural economic changes, and new imperial regulations."
"About the only time the colonial monetary system functioned effectively was when paper money circulated in tandem with full-bodied gold or silver coins (specie). When the government found itself in dire straits, as it did during the American Revolution, the value of paper money vis-a-vis specie slipped. "
https://www.aier.org/article/mmt-recipe-revolution
So, war is incompatible with MMT
At the same time, few bankers would survive in a world that shunned war.

4/03 ‘The spigot turned off’: how the stock market fall clobbered corporate debt – CNBC
4/02 Why “a spike in defaults is on the way, sooner or later” – Zero Hedge
4/02 Why corporate America’s profits are set to drop – MarketWatch

Trump was told that he would never get re-elected if he killed obamacare. so, he'll kill it AFTER he gets elected for his last term.
4/02 Trump punts health care until after 2020 – Politico

The senate killed the green new deal from OAC. BUT, the blob State thrives on bureaucracy and boondoggles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTHe_rn0dEU
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Old 04-05-2019, 04:24 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Liquidity crisis,,, stock inflows,,,Trump and the FED

Post 2008, the CBs created about $250 trillion of new debt-instrument "money". All of this flowed into new investments. It's difficult to break down or explain but, the value of all these investments depend on confidence. Any kind of a downturn would demand $trillions in margin calls. This would require a mountain of liquidity. BUT, in a downturn, you could never be sure of the true value of a prospective purchase., Everybody wants to wait til the market bottoms before buying anything. The end result, there would be no avail;able liquidity.

"All of that said, the crisis we have is a LIQUIDITY Crisis. This time it has been created especially by the European Central Bank (ECB). By keeping interest rates negative and punishing banks for having cash, they have (1) lent into real estate to get higher yields but this type of asset cannot be sold easily, (2) buying emerging market debt to get a high-yield like Turkey. Turkey was the favorite of Spanish Banks and the capital controls that Turkey did before the election sent shivers down the spine of institutional investors. The ECB has driven banks into these markets that are notoriously illiquid. This means that under Basel III, banks will not have the liquid assets to support their capitalization requirements. It becomes more likely that the Basel III requirements will be suspended or else there will be a wholesale collapse of the banking system."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...uidity-crisis/

"Can already record high prices continue to rise in the face of falling corporate profits? "
"Why does that imply falling stock prices, especially when corporate profits stagnated between 2015 and 2018 while share prices kept rising? Because of what those rising share prices did to valuations."
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/end-b...-three-charts/
It's a pretty good article but, makes NO mention of capital flight to safe-haven U.S. stocks.

"Political economist Thomas Oatley has likewise argued that every postwar economic boom, save one, was caused directly or indirectly by military spending (including stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis). Ten years after 2008, the average middle-class family’s net wealth is still $40,000 lower than 2007"
YES, but, we have great weapons.
https://www.theamericanconservative....-middle-class/
"The net result of conducting social programming by way of military spending is to ensure the burdens of America’s wars fall on an increasingly small part of the population already beset by serious economic woes. In regions of America suffering trade-related job losses and bipartisan abandonment, military enlistment rates are rising to compensate for the withering American Dream."
"In the Federalist Papers, even our most pro-federal spending founders held that a large standing army and a heavy, un-financed public debt burden were a danger to our republic’s health and security. Combining the two in the form of an ever-growing military budget is no victory. It is a threat to the future of the United States as we know it."

Trump wants to make some real changes at the FED;
"Trump’s choice of former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve Board is stirring misgivings among some bankers,” reports Politico.
“Economists are furious,” "Trump tried deferring to the monetary establishment. Now he is sending it a sharp rebuke in the form of Stephen Moore."
"CNN complaining he owes $75,000 in taxes, and Bloomberg fretting he “would jeopardize the Fed’s hard-won reputation for fairness and independence.”
An intact Fed reputation for being “fair” and “independent”? That is fake news for sure!"
"The Fed’s actions during the 2008 financial crisis – bailing out large financial institutions, picking winners and losers, pumping trillions of dollars into the bond and mortgage markets – revealed it to be beholden to the interests of bankers and politicians."

"Real assets would largely substitute for the arbitrary opinions and forecasts of the so-called experts at the Fed (who have a near perfect track record of failing to anticipate recessions and market crashes, many of which are actually caused or exacerbated by the Fed itself)."
"As Fed apologists conceive it, their privately owned banking cartel is akin to a pristine sanctuary that Trump now threatens to despoil. According to Vanity Fair’s William D. Cohan, “Like nearly everything he touches, Donald Trump is now in the process of thoroughly debasing the Federal Reserve...”"
Cohan is a jew who worked for Goldman Sachs,,,, what a surprise.

“Debasing” is an interesting word choice. Like nearly every liberal journalist who makes a living penning anti-Trump hit pieces, Cohan fails to appreciate the irony of his hyperbolic attacks.
The Federal Reserve is literally an institution of debasement! It has been engaged in a steady campaign of debasing our money since its inception in 1913."
Trump Readies Shake-up of Fed Banking Cartel :: The Market Oracle ::

Great article on "model bills"
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/ne...csp=chromepush

4/04 China preps more stimulus measures to aid consumption recovery – Bloomberg
You can bet that they won't raise wages.
4/04 Job layoffs surge 35% to highest level to start a year in a decade – CNBC
You can bet that we won\'t demand higher wages.
4/04 US government’s net worth is now negative $75 trillion – Sovereign Manwhat can you say?
The CBs tried to save the private banks when the economy just couldn't support them. This looks to be a full time job.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nancial-crisis
4/04 Massive increase of central bank assets warns of financial danger ahead – SRSR
Assets, my a$$. They just hold each other's paper.
4/03 Debt crisis warning as poorest countries’ repayment bills soar – Guardian
They have about $11 trillion in dollar-denominated debt. Hot money flees Marxist jurisdictions in Favor of America,,,, the dollar goes up,,, debt-service costs triple..

4/04 Japan policymakers shun ‘modern Monetary Theory’ as dangerous – Reuters
What a crock of crab. Their debt-to-GDP is 260% and will never be repaid. They look askance at MMT money printing.

Kitco, " Gold and silver prices are moderately lower and have dropped to more-than-three-month lows in early U.S. trading Thursday"
4/04 Perth Mint’s gold bullion sales surge 68% in March – GoldCore
One of these days the manipulation will end.
4/03 “Synchronized global growth has collapsed”: Deutsche downgrades Cat – ZH
Caterpillar should downgrade Deutsche Bank.
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  #3207  
Old 04-07-2019, 06:33 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The perpetual and undying monster in our midst

I'm trying to make a coherent picture of a bunch of notes that I took.
"In classical economics, Say's law, or the law of markets, states that "Supply creates its own demand", the aggregate production necessarily precedes an equal quantity of aggregate demand"
This is true in a system with adequate wages. Lacking adequate wages, demand will continue as long as cheap credit is available. Until wages rise up, cheap credit must be perpetual. BUT, if cheap credit is universally available, it will flow into speculative schemes that cause more price inflation. As automation grows, aggregate supply increases but, aggregate demand is diminished by stagnant wages. This INCLUDES demand for credit. To survive the banks were required to generate income by fleecing producers.
Here is a graph of the rise in productivity.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...04192L.svg.png
Here is a graph in manufacturing wage growth.
https://i1.wp.com/weatherinternal.co...75%2C360&ssl=1

Here are the corporations that control the world.
https://www.internationalbusinessgui.../corporations/
Here is an excellent list of all the financial corporations that control the world.
https://www.henrymakow.com/banking_cartel.html
While they work hard to keep wages down, the real cause of the constraint on purchasing power is price inflation. This, they can accomplish very easily.
Since business and household initiate very little demand for new legitimate credit, The State is fulfilling the demand. If the State fails as Armstrong predicts, there will be nobody left to demand credit.

How did we reach this state of control and poverty?
The god that won the war against humanity.
The corporation is an entity that demands to grow no matter the cost to humanity.
It never dies and never stops consuming.
No crime against humanity is too great as long as it makes a profit. No food too dangerous,,, no drug too deadly,,, no pollution too devastating.
The bankers have always sought war because the profit margins are so high.

By law, the corporation was given the rights of a person, even though it has not one shred of humanity. This further allowed it to buy politicians to further it's profitable schemes.
Hearst and Pulitzer "created" the Spanish-American war just to sell more newspapers.

The U.S. bond market is valued at $41 trillion. This is money borrowed from the future to be paid back with money skimmed from profitable enterprise. With the abandonment of the gold standard and regulatory changes to corporations, bond issuance was allowed to grow practically without limitation. There were no practical constraints on debt issuance, both public and private. Bonds carry an interest burden and, profitable enterprise must grow to service principle and interest.
BUT, the corporation is anti-human. Where the corporation gains, humans must lose. Wages must be suppressed to skim off more money from a shrinking economy.

These two phenomena—rising inequality and chronic weakness of demand—are related. Specifically, rising inequality transfers income from low-saving households in the bottom and middle of the income distribution to higher-saving households at the top. All else equal, this redistribution away from low- to high-saving households reduces consumption spending, which drags on demand growth.
A stunningly large upward redistribution of income has characterized the American economy in recent decades.

"By far the most important driver of this upward redistribution is the growing wedge between economy-wide productivity growth (a measure of income generated in an average hour of work in the United States) and hourly pay of typical American workers Inequality has transferred income from low- and middle-income households with relatively low savings rates towards higher-income households with higher savings rates.
The failure of wages of the vast majority of Americans to benefit from economy-wide growth in productivity (or income generated in an average hour of work) has been the root cause of the stratospheric rise in inequality and the concentration of economic growth at the very top of the income distribution.
The share of overall income held by the top 1 percent more than doubles (rising from 8.9 to 18.7 percent of total income) between 1979 and 2007.
the top 1 percent share in 2012 of 17.3 percent was almost double its 1979 level. Particularly salient to this analysis is the rough doubling of both labor and total capital shares claimed by the top 1 percent from 1979 to 2007 and 2012."
https://www.epi.org/publication/secular-stagnation/

So, there was no real constraint on credit issuance. But, there was a huge constraint on wage growth. The article argues that wages must be lifted and interest rates must fall to support the working class.
It isn't a lack of wage growth that is a constraint on consumption. It is the monetary inflation and price inflation over-running the wage inflation that became a constraint on consumption.
This lack of consumption creates the lack of profitability that increasingly makes the corporate bond market weaker and weaker. The solution from the corporatocracy is to issue more bonds to service previous debt notes.
Wall Street is beginning to take notice of problems forming in the $9 trillion corporate debt market."
So, there are no constraints on debt creation. No constraints on price inflation. The constraints on wage growth have created a constraint on consumption.
The bankers have responded to the fall in consumption be lengthening credit terms. The people have responded by reducing the birth rate.
The bankers have gutted wages to keep the credit bubble growing. American banks realize a $400 billion a year gain by NOT paying interest on savings accounts. This is deflationary to the lower loop and, cuts consumption even more.

"’It doesn’t take a genius’ to know capitalism needs fixing. Capitalism helped Ray Dalio build his investment empire. But in a lengthy LinkedIn post, the Bridgewater Associates founder says that it isn’t working anymore. Mr. Dalio writes that he has seen capitalism ‘evolve in a way that it is not working well for the majority of Americans because it’s producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots.’ ‘Disparity in wealth, especially when accompanied by disparity in values, leads to increasing conflict and, in the government, that manifests itself in the form of populism of the left and populism of the right and often in revolutions of one sort or another.’ ‘The problem is that capitalists typically don’t know how to divide the pie well and socialists typically don’t know how to grow it well"
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot...esmanship.html

The banks have had their most profitable years yet. But, for the corporation to gain, the population must lose. Everywhere that you look, you see deflation of the lower loop.
https://mailchi.mp/rickackerman/here...7?e=652b304c3b
The pension system are beyond saving.
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  #3208  
Old 04-08-2019, 03:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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No hope and no CLUE in Japan,,,Gold in Italy

Japan, the "lab rat" once again.
"The BoJ has accumulated ¥557 trillion in assets, equivalent to 101% of 2018 nominal GDP (that compares to about 39% in Europe and 19% in the U.S.), as policymakers continue to up the ante in their quest to achieve a 2% measured rate of inflation."
chairman of the Japanese Bankers Association, told Bloomberg that the Bank of Japan must “carefully consider” the impact of deepening its subzero interest rate policy: "
"For his part, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda opined in March that “I don’t think our ETF buying is having any effect on market function.” The central banker said in a speech today that the BoJ “needs to continue easing persistently.”

"Of Japan’s banks, Kuroda attributed their profit woes to “structural factors, such as a dwindling population,”
"In that address, the BoJ governor articulated his plan to rouse the Land of the Rising Sun from its longstanding disinflationary torpor. Namely, manipulate expectations such that citizens begin to expect rising prices, which would then presage the real McCoy:"
So, expectations of rising prices will cause the Japanese to have more children.
" (1) directly working on people's expectations through a price stability target of 2 percent " So, 2% annual rise in prices is "price stability"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-he-persisted

"Complaining that hundreds of thousands of small individual investors lost billions of dollars after several Italian banks failed in recent years, the anti-establishment '5 Star Movement' and the nationalist 'League', depict the central bank as a symbol of a technocratic elite aloof from the needs of ordinary Italians. "
DO NOT WORRY. The big banks came out OK.
"Five Star and the League have repeatedly attacked the Bank of Italy for not preventing the banking crises, and blamed it for the losses suffered by mom-and-pop savers who had bought bank shares and bonds."
Well, somebody had to eat the losses from bank speculation.
The italians want to take control of the state gold.
"

“The gold belongs to the Italians, not to the bankers,” said Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, a far-right opposition party that supports both bills. “We are ready to battle everywhere in Italy and to bring Italians to the streets if necessary.”
Draghi says, NO! Italy owes many billions of Euros to the ECB and, Draghi intends to hold the gold hostage for repayment.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...d-central-bank

The Saudis are rattling sabers, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...nti-trust-bill

4/08 Europe isn’t Japan in the 1990s. You should still be worried – Bloomberg
Same birth rate.
4/07 What deleveraging? Global leverage continues to break records – RIA
And the result,
4/08 Wall Street prepares to profit off looming global credit crunch – NY Post
4/08 Barack Obama warns progressives to avoid ‘circular firing squad’ – Guardian
No, NO, NO,,, send them more bullets
Brexit is shaping up to be quite a big deal.
https://www.apnews.com/98ee581b43a74efebd2db70eef1dad2d

Keep in mind that regulatory capture was the name-of-the-game for bankers to fleece everybody in sight. The bankers know where ALL the bodies are hidden.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...he-deep-state/
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  #3209  
Old 04-09-2019, 04:31 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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You spent $234 billion in February,,,

Just so you know that the State is there to look out for your welfare.
"In March 2017, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the idea of humans losing jobs because of AI “is not even on our radar screen.” It might be a threat, he added, in “50 to 100 more years.”
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-cold-...d-doom-us-all/
14 numbers that show the true state of the economy.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...f-the-economy/

US budget deficit hits record $234 billion in February, national debt
National Debt Hits a New Record High: $22 Trillion -
The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week

So, what happens when something goes wrong?
"Last week I told you that the US government recently reported a negative net worth of MINUS $75 TRILLION."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ion-insolvency

Repost, "The testimony of this one man could put away prominent members of the Deep State. He has given Congressional testimony, but was ignored."
I wonder why?
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...he-deep-state/

General Douglas MacArthur warned in a speech to the Salvation Army, December 12, 1951, stating:

"History fails to record a single precedent in which nations subject to moral decay have not passed into political and economic decline.

There has been either a spiritual awakening to overcome the moral lapse, or a progressive deterioration leading to ultimate national disaster."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ly-out-control
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  #3210  
Old 04-09-2019, 02:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Will AI displace politicians and corruption?

Power corrupts and, attracts the already corrupted. The honest man who just wants to live his life and be left alone is always at a disadvantage to the criminals. Organized crime has gradually taken over much of the world. Political power has attracted it's share of corrupted people. They are driven by insecurity, narcissism, ego, stupidity and hatred. We vote but, the corruption of mass media makes voting an exercise in futility. Vote for criminal one or,, vote for criminal two. The concentration of power in the political system makes it a prime target for control by the corrupted banking system.
The banking system is naturally corrupted because it is a parasite. The power of the banking system combined with the corruption of the political system gives us a long history of financial crashes and wars. Power brings out the worst tendencies in man.

Voting is frustrating because of the lack of honest candidates. If we do vote for something that is beneficial to the honest man, it is just blocked or derailed by the politicians. It is impossible to be informed on all the issues because it is too complex and time consuming.
We use computers to manage and control our most complicated processes. Why not use computers to manage our economy and political system? Computers are used to break down complex ideas.
César Hidalgo has come up with a way to do that. Our computers learn our preferences and, present us with a tailored list of suggested reading. His idea is that; computers could learn every nuance of proposed legislations or candidates. They could then propose how we should vote on an issue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyGWML6cI_k

This idea IS logical. It has occurred to many people. Tired of corruption, they are willing to turn over decisions to a computer that has no insecurities, nor ego and no ignorance.
https://www.rt.com/news/454259-europ...rnment-survey/

This idea is coming into play from another angle also.
"China’s tech giants were enlisted as well. Alibaba, the giant online retailer, was tapped to develop a “City Brain” for a new Special Economic Zone being planned about 60 miles southwest of Beijing. Already, in the city of Hangzhou, the company was soaking up data from thousands of street cameras and using it to control traffic lights with AI, optimizing traffic flow in much the way AlphaGo had optimized for winning moves on the Go board; now Alibaba would help design AI into a new megacity’s entire infrastructure from the ground up."
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-cold-...d-doom-us-all/

OK, AI will control much of the city. When programmed correctly, a computer has inescapable logic. What happens when a computer presents the politicians with a logical but, unpalatable set of projections?

Edit; The producer has security because he is directly supporting himself. The parasite must get his support second-hand. The parasite has far less of a sense of security. This inspires theft and a constant fight for control, along with various other criminal activities. This insecurity is motivation for all kinds of evil deeds.
Congress gets their salary for life. Private sector unions have been wiped out. Public sector unions are large and growing. This is all tied to the insecurity of being a non-producer.
The politicians have convinced the producers that; society would fall apart if they didn't use their mental powers and expertise to control everything. Due to their insecurity, they invariably direct the expertise to enriching themselves.
Insecure, greedy and power-mad, the politicians are the worst candidates for controlling our lives.
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Last edited by Danny B; 04-09-2019 at 04:15 PM. Reason: moare
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