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  #3181  
Old 03-13-2019, 03:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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ZH, Facebook and the slow burn

I started writing on global cooling 10 years ago. The idea is slowly catching on .
https://eplaya.burningman.org/viewtopic.php?t=26584

Zero Hedge put up this article showing that the libs have gone completely crazy in higher education.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...tudents-become
Shortly after that, Facebook blocked ANY links to ZH articles.
https://www.rt.com/news/453593-zero-...ok-complaints/
Facebook Reverses Zero Hedge Ban, Says It Made A "Mistake"
Everything that the libs do seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to something that upsets them..

Meanwhile, Cheney is pissed off because we don't have enough wars.
https://www.rt.com/usa/453583-dick-c...-isolationism/
Daily Reckoning has praised Trump as the "do nothing" president,,,, referring to his lack of wars.
Armstrong has been recognised worldwide as being correct on his investment advice. He has warned loud and clear about the collapse of public debt. Nobody will buy sovereign debt. The CBs send truckloads of pixels to each other that they sue to buy each others debt. While stocks are referenced to some tangible object or service, bonds are just a hope & prayer credit instrument. Stocks are more-or-less hanging in there but, bonds aren't doing well at all.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...aint-buying-it

Various corporations and other entities sell bonds to borrow money. There is no requirement that these bonds and companies have any visible means to repay these bonds. The bonds are just rated. Any downturn in the economy lowers this rating.
There are a couple hundred $billion in bonds that are VERY shakey. Just the same, companies MUST rollover these short term notes. Buffet said, when the tide goes out, you will see who has been swimming naked. It looks like January 2020 is when the tide goes out.
U.S. public debt is rising tremendously as GOV tries to pump up everybody who is failing. This transfers the risk to the public sector. Eventually, we will see just how long GOV can fake it.
California is quite the generous Sate, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...0000-pensions/

The problem with Zero Hedge is that it punctures the official narrative.
"But we did let the crisis of 2008 go to waste. Rather than reconstructing a new foundation out of the wreckage, we simply restored the status quo ante, and left the world’s elite financial engineers with a relatively free hand to create a wide range of new destructive financial instruments."
"Here’s another disaster waiting to happen: Globally, financial markets today are seeing a rebirth of “collateralized loan obligations” (CLOs), instruments broadly similar to the “collateralized debt obligations” (CDOs), which helped to blow up the financial system in 2008. CDOs were asset-backed instruments, a “blended” security comprised of risky mortgage-backed bonds and much of the rest from theoretically safer tranches. The theory underlying them was that the lower the investment quality, the higher the compensating yield, but in reality most turned out to be toxic junk. What distinguishes CLOs from their CDO “cousin” is that instead of repackaging mortgages, subprime and otherwise, CLOs repackage corporate loans, and consumer credit, such as car loans.

Unfortunately, in yet another instance of lessons unlearned from 2008, the collateralized loan obligations, like the CDOs, have virtually non-existent investor protection, “with over 70 percent lacking any covenants that would allow monitoring of financial condition and early intervention to manage problem borrowers."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...aiting-explode
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  #3182  
Old 03-14-2019, 03:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The economy has been in a state of animated death

"Jeremy Grantham, a market investor who is credited with predicting the 2000 and 2008 downturns, said that other investors should get used to more lackluster returns in the stock market in the next 20 years."
"Grantham told CNBC on Thursday that after a century of handsome gains investors should get inured to lackluster returns in the stock market for the next two decades, according to Market Watch. “In the last 100 years, we’re used to delivering perhaps 6%,”
So, what happened 100 years ago,,,1919??
NOW, I remember,,, we got the FED as our beloved central bank.
Investor: The Next 20 Years In The Stock Market Will "Break A Lot Of Hearts"
" Other economists have warned that when the economy finally collapses this next time, the central bankers and the government will be unable to save anyone."
I can live with that as long as the bankers and politicians get the axe first.

"It is important to remind the public that this narrative is entirely false.

The economy has been in a state of animated death since 2008. Central bank stimulus acted as a kind of fiscal formaldehyde, keeping the visible signs of the crash at bay for 10 years but also creating a bubble even larger and more destructive than the one before. The “Everything Bubble” has now been primed to explode with maximum damage in mind."
I thought it was Viagra and cocaine.
"The crash itself is simply a means to an end. It is a tool to gain fiscal and psychological leverage against the public. The everything bubble was created for a reason"
"The assertion in the mainstream media is that this recessionary downturn is new. This is not the case. What began in 2008 was an epic implosion of multiple national economies, and what we are seeing in 2019 is the final culmination of that process - The end game."
"The assertion in the mainstream media is that this recessionary downturn is new. This is not the case. What began in 2008 was an epic implosion of multiple national economies, and what we are seeing in 2019 is the final culmination of that process - The end game."

"What we do know is that the intent of the globalists is to use this reset to create a more centralized monetary system and micro-managed global economy"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...gineered-crash
3/13 Consumers racked up $67 billion in credit card debt in 2018, study finds – Silver
Party on Wayne.
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  #3183  
Old 03-14-2019, 03:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Thrashing about to preseve the power structure

Containerized shipping ushered in outsourcing from high-wage economies. It crashed down remuneration in the domestic productive sector. The bankers convinced the State that they must be allowed to grossly inflate the upper loop of the economy and, the "trickle down" would buoy up the lower loop. Well, it didn't work that way. The trickle down stimulated the gig economy but, did nothing for manufacturing or wages.
It did however, create price inflation that eroded away the purchasing power of the wages that had become static. The State does not consider inflation of the upper loop when figuring the inflation numbers that affect the lower loop. Shadowstats has long publicised the "true" inflation numbers. I write "true" in quotation marks because Shadowstats is still using government data to get their results.
They use a previous methodology from the State to get what they consider to be a more accurate result,,, instead of the heavily massaged data.
The Dallas FED has now come out with a methodology that includes the inflation of the upper loop.
https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-...nflation-rate/

What it shows is; there was absolutely NO JUSTIFICATION for the money pumping and QE. Keep in mind that the FED strives mightily to create 2% price inflation and,,, cries when it can't accomplish this. Former FED head, Paul Volker came out clearly and said that there was NO JUSTIFICATION for a 2% inflation target. The only "justification" for QE and asset inflation is to rescue the money renters.
When the arrival of the global-mean-wage wiped out the productive class, it SHOULD have wiped out much of the speculative class. Regulatory capture held this crash at bay for a time. This scheme is rapidly winding down,,, from a historical perspective.

51% of Americans receive a check from the State. This has just gotten too expensive.
Good article;
"This demand cannot be met, and so society decays into warring elites and competing constituencies. The only real solution--to make severe sacrifices in order to live within the modest means available and jettison the parasitic elites--is politically and culturally unpalatable to a citizenry steeped in a belief that good times should be forever and it's the fault of the ruling party of the moment rather than a failure of the entire system."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps
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  #3184  
Old 03-15-2019, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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A little doom here,,, a little gloom there.

So, we are rapidly approaching the end of a credit super-cycle. We are sinking into the Fourth Turning. Never in history has there been an economic playbook that coped with automation. Never has there been a credit bubble of such huge proportions. The FED is hinting at negative interest rates. Europe is sliding towards NIRP that is even more negative. Nobody has a plan. The upper loop is deathly afraid of free money for the lower loop. The upper loop fears an end to their advantage. The lower loop fears an end to their lives.

"ZH, Why the FED panicked in December.
The economy has completely fallen off a cliff."
We will eventually have a reset but, it will involve a lot of death and destruction.
Here is our progress report.
"The stage is set for the largest tsunami of consumer debt defaults that this country has ever seen, and that will absolutely devastate major financial institutions all across America."

#1 Total consumer debt in the United States just surpassed the 4 trillion dollar mark. That has never happened before in all of U.S. history.

#2 When you throw in mortgages and all other kinds of individual debt, U.S. consumers are now 13.5 trillion dollars in debt.

#3 A whopping 480 million credit cards are in circulation in this country. That number has shot up by nearly 13 percent since 2015.

#4 U.S. consumers are carrying 870 billion dollars worth of balances on their credit cards right now.

#5 56 percent of Americans that currently have credit card balances have been carrying them for more than a year.

#6 The number of “seriously delinquent”credit card accounts in the U.S. has shot up to 37 million.

#7 Americans now owe a total of 1.3 trillion dollars on their auto loans.

#8 At this moment, more than 7 million Americans are delinquent on their auto loan payments. The figure has already surpassed what we witnessed during the peak of the last recession by about a million.

#9 The total amount of student loan debt in the United States has reached the 1.5 trillion dollar mark. Over the last 10 years, that number has more than doubled.

#10 Right now, more than 166 billion dollars in student loan debt is considered to be “seriously delinquent”.

#11 Millennials are now more than a trillion dollars in debt. No generation of Americans has ever been deeper in debt at this stage in life.

#12 One recent survey found that 78 percent of Americans “are living paycheck to paycheck”. Suffocating debt levels are a big reason why that figure is so incredible
And that is particularly important at this juncture because the economy is really starting to slow down. Compared to last year, U.S. job cut announcements were up 117 percent in February.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ebt-apocalypse

The money renters temporarily severed the link to the wealth producers. Their time will come.
Armstrong, "I cannot stress enough that Mario Draghi has really destroyed the European economy on an unprecedented scale."
"His policy of perpetual low to negative interest rates is a barbaric ancient theory based on the assumption that if you make it insanely cheap to borrow, people will run out and buy everything"
They will buy speculative instruments, NOT tangibles.
"He has kept this failed theory up for 10 years without success. He owns the bulk of sovereign debt in Europe; he cannot sell or even stop rolling over without causing a major debt crisis among member states. "
"Add to that the fact that Draghi never considered the impact upon those who saved all their lives to retire and suddenly discovered their life savings earned nothing"
"With the economy turning down hard once again into 2020, he has no means to even try to pretend he can manage the economy. We are headed into a NEW ERA in which the belief in central banks and government being in control is about to collapse before our eyes."
, NO, not the FED !
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...the-nightmare/

"Number of Days Congress Works in Session a Year. The House of Representatives has averaged 138 "legislative days" a year since 2001, according to records kept by the Library of Congress. That's about one day of work every three days, or fewer than three days a week."
If they do that for 5 years, they get lifetime retirement of 80% of their $174,000 annual salary.
"Public local, state, and federal pension funds are in even worse shape: $7 TRILLION short on what they promised to pay retired government workers."
This true but, congress gets retirement money out of the general fund, NOT the pension fund.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...r-own-pensions
The rest of us will eat cake. They just don't have much time to work because they are busy accepting bribes and campaign money.

Along with congress, there is another entity that doesn't have to worry about finance.
https://sputniknews.com/us/201903131...dget-proposal/
The spooks seem to get all the money they need.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/20...eard-of-trump/
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  #3185  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:28 PM
wayne.ct wayne.ct is offline
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The party died!

Daniel 5. The core of the problem for the ruling class in that story/parable/myth (Whatever!) is a lack of understanding. Okay, perhaps that is not the core issue. Back on track... One component of the story is that the king and his counselors could not understand the words and the message behind the words. Everyone else in the city most likely understood the situation on the ground. The enemy was in the process of diverting the river, a major engineering achievement for that era. But the troops on the ground were politically correct and did not close the river gates. The words and their meaning were obvious to the seer. Enough of that.

The PTB refuse to understand money, morals, etc. and the mindless followers are trapped in a web of lies. The father of lies is gleeful. The courtesans use double entendre and the sheep follow right along. Nothing will surprise me. It should be obvious but some people refuse to listen or understand. People are getting dumber, not wiser. I have no words to explain because every word I might use seems to have been compromised by the sophisticated intelligentsia.
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  #3186  
Old 03-16-2019, 04:53 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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MMT to euthanasia

wayne ct. Yes, it's a sad situation. I just try to bring a little clarity out of the confusion. I also try to discard the B.S.

This is the short version tonight.
3/15 BoJ’s never-ending crisis is a lesson to the world’s central banks – Bloomberg
China's Looming Liquidity Shortage (Or Why Endless Stimulus Isn't Working)

"But, after over 60 different 'stimulus' measures in the last few months and last night's promises, nothing seems to be working as China's economic data continues to tumble."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-isnt-working
The Fed’s failures are mounting – Danielle DiMartino Booth
3/15 China premier vows no massive stimulus as Beijing launches massive stimulus – ZH
3/15 Central banks stuck in holding pattern – Reuters


The whole Central Bank model is going down the drain.
Armstrong, "The Fed was created to be funded by the banks themselves to effectively be their bailout institution. As I have written before, the Fed “stimulated” for it was authorized to buy ONLY corporate paper when banks could not lend. Because of WWI, the politicians directed the Fed to only buy government debt"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...ctional-dream/
The FED was hitched up to birth the warfare state. After Bretton Woods, the FED was hitched up to birth the welfare State. Warfare being the most important of the 2. After all, social security was raided to fund wars.
" The ECB and the Bank of Japan fund their government debts without end, and they have both destroyed their bonds markets"
It is only a lack of transparency that allows the FED to appear to have stopped QE.
"The ECB cannot sell the bonds it has already bought. They have already stated that as bonds mature, they will reinvest that money aside from any new purchases because there is no market. Since they have destroyed their own bond markets, we are UNLIKELY to see a crash if there are no bids and offers. They will simply pretend that sovereign debt is perfectly fine."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...a-free-market/
The BOJ prints trillions to uphold their markets. Is that any different from MMT?
The ECB prints trillions to uphold State debt. Is that any different from MMT?
The FED is doing the same thing,,, only, on the sly.
Where does this all lead. If the CB prints whatever money is needed in the economy, what happens to the money renter?
Keynes had it all figured out.
https://medium.com/@DuncanWeldon/neg...y-dc3131d8d85e

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...21800911004873
Remember that the anti-MMT people claim that we would get high inflation. Didn't happen in Japan. Even China has low inflation in most sectors.
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  #3187  
Old 03-16-2019, 01:59 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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From war finance to welfare finance

From a paper by the G-30, "Central banks were first established in the 17th
century, with the primary purpose of providing war finance to governments"
Page 17 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...dV8tWdVR3unFAt

In the case of America, the government is primarily focused on providing war finance.
In the case of Europe, the ECB is focused more on financing the welfare State.
Government is a parasite that has deeply embedded itself into society. 51% of Americans rely on a check from the State. The parasite is just taking TOO much. MUCH of this is brought on by emerging automation.
Part of this is brought on by the demographic crash. There just aren't enough workers to support the elderly non-workers.
G. W. F. Hegel believed that everybody should work for the State. Socialism has never worked out because it removes all motivation. Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressure and the non-producers. Socialism is currently financed and upheld by the Central Banks. What happens to the non-producers when the Central Bank model fails?

"A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth"
“Central banks have described their actions as ‘buying time’ for governments to finally resolve the crisis"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...0S40VE20151010
So, how does the government resolve the crisis of falling population?,, falling purchasing power?,.,,
They don't have a clue.

"When it comes to economic booms and busts, not to mention currency instability, there is no greater perpetrator than government-controlled central banking. "
"The world has been plagued with periodic bouts of the economic rollercoaster of booms and busts, especially during the last one hundred years. The main culprits responsible for these destabilizing and disruptive episodes have been governments and their central banks. They have monopolized the control of their respective nation’s monetary and banking systems and mismanaged them. There is really nowhere else to point other than in their direction."
"Skidelsky: Central Banking Equals Stable Prices and Markets

Skidelsky argues against those who wish to denationalize and privatize money and the monetary system. That is, he criticizes those who want to take control of money and monetary affairs out of the hands of the government, and, instead, put them back into the competitive, private market. He opposes those who wish to separate money from the State.":
https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-th...mic-stability/

The vast majority of bureaucrats "working" for the State know that they would have no job in the competitive private sector. Both the deep state and the blob state together are overpowering the productive sector. A collapse of the sovereign bond market will leave all of them without employment.
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  #3188  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:31 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The fallout from saving the money renters.

Lots of notes.
"Take a look at the S&P Value Index vs the S&P Growth Index. Shunned!"
https://3lrofj3556kl9zu0p27yma51-wpe...9/03/sc-31.png
ALL credit bubbles came to an end. We are approaching the end of a debt super-cycle. The State is the biggest deadbeat borrower. Both the state and the banks are trying to hold back a collapse. This bubble is bigger than all previous bubbles.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/cm-us-stand...2019-03-14.png
Another graph, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=4FcBQujG

"On top of a poor month for job creation, Dow Transports also declined for 11 straight days last week, which hasn’t happened since 1971. The last time transports fell 10 straight days was in 2009 amid the great recession."
https://moneyandmarkets.com/peter-sc...c-foundations/

"Alan Greenspan took another giant policy leap - orchestrating a steep yield curve. By dropping short-term rates to an at the time incredible 3% - banks could borrow fed funds and invest in government debt yielding 8% - magically replenishing depleted capital.
This maneuver empowered the rebuilding of banking system capital ",,,
FROM the saver and taxpayer. .1% paid on savings and,,, loans at 8%. NICE spread.
"They surely didn’t realize it at the time, but our central bank had begun sliding down a most slippery slope: The Fed had created unprecedented incentives for leveraged speculation."
" Did the Greenspan Fed simply not appreciate of the effects of this massive GSE credit creation – or did they clandestinely support it?
"
Preserve the money renters at all costs.
"In the dozen years since Volcker, the Greenspan Fed had made incredible strides in “activist” policymaking. In 1987, the early-nineties, 1995 and again in 1998, the Fed was content to use new tools and assume new power in the name of fighting deflation and depression risks. Speculative finance turned more powerful at every turn."
In the name of fighting deflation in the upper loop.

"Greenspan had profoundly changed central banking. Bernanke, with his radical monetary views including the “government printing press” and “helicopter money,” took things to a whole new level. Greenspan was happy to manipulate rates, yield curves, market perceptions and incentives for leveraged speculation - all in the name of developing a powerful new monetary transmission mechanism."
Yes, from Main st. to Wall st.
"he Bernanke Fed and others moved deliberately to force savers out of safety and into inflating risk markets. "
The money renters were happy.
"Global markets went to parabolic speculative excess. From February 2016 lows to 2018 highs, the Nasdaq Composite surged 93% and the small cap Russell 2000 jumped 85%."
Viagra laced with cocaine.

"Over the past three decades, things evolved from monetary policy operating subtly to encourage/discourage bank lending at the margin - to central banks expressly working to ensure that Trillions of levered holdings and perhaps tens of Trillions of speculative positions don’t face risk aversion and liquidation."
Money renting is a very crowded trade but, the CBs don't want any of them to lose a penny.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: No One Knows How Monetary Policy Works

9 steps to socialism.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ther...etal-breakdown
3/16 Foreigners sell US Treasuries for 3rd month in January – Reuters
Everybody is trying to raise cash.
3/17 Italy courting China is a masterstroke of chaos – Tom LuongoIt may look good now. Just wait til China demands infrastructure in case of default.
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  #3189  
Old 03-18-2019, 02:45 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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It pays to own the governent

The MMT people say that GOV can just print the money that it needs. RIDICULOUS ! They say that the GOV doesn't need to tax. RIDICULOUS !
BUT, the Grace Commission formed by Ronald Reagan reported that not one dime of tax money goes to support the government. So, who does it support?
https://archive.org/stream/TheGraceC...n1984_djvu.txt

Armstrong,
"I support cutting income taxes to ZERO. The government should just create the money it needs to cover its expenses. Let’s get real here! All national debts, including Germany, show that on average 70% of the debt is just accumulative interest. So that is money out the back-door."
Ah yes, it goes to the bankers.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...s/trump-taxes/

The 16th amendment, Passed by Congress on July 2, 1909, and ratified February 3, 1913,
How very strange, we got an income tax at the same time that we got a central bank.
Then, there is the question of legitimacy,
https://www.givemeliberty.org/featur...otratified.htm
So, one way or another, your taxes go to the bankers. Then, the bankers take that money AND your savings,,,, then they INVEST. What that means is; they front-run everything that you want or need to buy. Keynes said that with unfolding automation, we would all be so rich that we would only need to work 15 hours a week. That certainly wouldn't leave much for the bankers to skim off.

Armstrong, "I asked what was this all about? The German government had approved that they could lay off 25% of its workforce. At the last minute, the government changed its mind and told the company it was not fair for them to pick and choose. Instead, the company had to make a flat offer with a pay-out of about €150,000 to volunteer to surrender your job. The end results were devastating. Every worker who knew they could get a job with no problem took the €150,000 and left. The company lost its best workers and was then left with the very people they wanted to get rid of. The board directors resigned for they did not want their career associated with what they expected to be a disaster over the years ahead."
Everywhere that you look, it's all about JOBS.

Armstrong, "the ECB unable to do anything whatsoever and the European people have become Draghi’s collateral damage. With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, we are headed into a hard landing for the bottom of the Economic Confidence Model come 2020."
"We are in a global recession that has been underway with economic growth rates running just a fraction of what they use to be decades ago."
By strange coincidence, birth rates and population growth are just a fraction of what they used to be decades ago.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-hard-landing/

3/18 Why this rally smells funny – Rick’s Picks
Smells like soap bubbles.
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  #3190  
Old 03-19-2019, 03:06 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Print money to save jobs,,, just keep the wages low

I find excellent articles at Zero Hedge BUT, when I log on to their site, this is what it does to my computer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JKBQnNs_wk
As everyone knows, the rich run the government, not the voters. The rich in a high-wage country will always try to force wages down to compete with low-wage countries. Here is a good article showing how the Aussie government has passed numerous laws to destroy collective bargaining and depress wages.
https://theconversation.com/ultra-lo...olicies-113357
This has come full circle to where the global mean wage just won't support anything except a survival economy with no discretionary spend on things like children.

Years of research shows that; when sovereign debt crosses the 80% of GDP figure, investors are driven away. States have always needed outside investors to buy their bonds.
3/19 Japan’s debt passes 250% of GDP – Asia Times
Since the BOJ is printing fresh money to buy GOV debt, there is little worry that investors won't buy it. The BOJ also owns 70% of exchange traded funds. They are buying up everything that isn't nailed down.
Armstrong laments that Draghi has destroyed confidence in the European sovereign debt markets. Wait a minute. As long as Draghi and Kuroda keep printing, they don't need to worry about confidence. Japan has hit 250% and hyperinflation never appeared.
Was this a test case to see if MMT could be implemented without inflation risk?
3/18 “Euro’s failure magnified the difference between eurofication and japanificiation” – ZH
They're working out the details.

If only the CB has a printing press, EVERYBODY is dependent on the CB for liquidity. That includes the banks. Will the State / CB take over the private banks if / when they crash?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...able-doom-loop
Is this a prelude to "euthanasia of the rentier"?
Just how long can the fantasy bubble keep going?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...spread-fantasy

"Nonfinancial corporate bonds outstanding in the U.S. grew from approximately $2.2 trillion in 2008 to approximately $5.7 trillion at year-end 2018…"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rything-bubble
The BOJ has pumped in trillions by buying exchange traded funds. Governments worldwide are buying up corporate paper to keep the zombies alive. After all, the Zombies employ lots of people.
The State has a choice. Keep people employed working for the State and the zombies OR, let it all go and lose legitimacy in the eyes of the population.
Good article on the decline of globalization.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...02qrh6mlQfh2Q/

Government is growing faster than the private sector. That has never worked out before.
http://www.batr.org/totalitariancoll...sm/031919.html
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  #3191  
Old 03-20-2019, 03:28 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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CBs and money renting

Rome, "But then growth peaked, the empire became extended, it could no longer afford its military might, its culture peaked, internal strive became pervasive while foreign adversaries kept challenging its predominance and the people lost trust in its government as corruption and nepotism became the primary means to power and influence."
https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/18/the-end-of-trust/

Armstrong, "ANSWER: The key to pushing capital fleeing into the stock market will be the decline in public confidence within the government. Everything is unfolding on schedule. You see turmoil everywhere from Canada to France and Italy. The level of people distrusting government is climbing. Normally, it will take a 45% level of people turning against the government to set off the spark."
"So no, there still does not appear to be a major crash of 50-62% (stocks) as the majority are calling. The market is testing resistance, but here too we do not see this as breaking out and taking off just yet. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...or-crash-burn/
The government has made promises that it just can't keep in the area of pensions. If FED GOV keeps funding an unnecessary military instead of pensions, this will definitely set off a good dose of hatred.

Armstrong has a definite hatred of president Jackson for killing the Central Bank.
"Here is a chart of the stock market with the US Long Bond. Andrew Jackson paid off the national debt in 1835. President Jackson also shut down the Second Bank of the United States on Sept. 10th, 1833. Jackson announced that the government would no longer deposit federal funds in the Second Bank of the United States, which was a quasi-governmental national bank."
Jackson broke the "piggy bank" that the bankers were using to create price inflation in their favor.
"Then during July 1836, Jackson issued the Specie Circular. Under this act, the government would only accept gold or silver in payment for federal land."
This was a mistake because it pulled money to the GOV and created deflation of circulating money.
"By shifting deposits to state banks, Jackson set off a major crisis undermining the entire monetary system. He effectively devalued all the circulating currency in the country with one law – the Specie Circular. Suddenly, there was a run on gold. The Panic of 1837 unfolds as New York banks suspended all withdrawals of gold. Jackson created massive austerity, but he had shut down the national debt as well. This was a very complicated financial crisis with an interesting mix of events combining together"

Yes, the banks suspended withdrawal. It wasn't Jackson who created austerity. It was the banks refusal to return the money that they held to the rightful owners.
"Jackson effectively canceled all paper money by refusing to accept it and this resulted in a gold panic forcing the banks to suspend all payments. People were rushing to banks to exchange their paper currency for gold and banks could not meet the demand and suspended all demands for gold."
More half truths. Paper currency could be used for everything except for purchase of land from FED GOV. It was the banks over-issuance of debt paper based on a limited gold supply.

"Each cycle that hits is slightly different characters and reasons. I highly warn against buying any sovereign debt whatsoever. Any federal debt to hold must be short-term no more than 90-day paper. In the case of the Hard Times of 1837-1842, the stock market crashed in terms of gold because all money was effectively canceled. Paper money collapsed as notes lost their legal-tender value. Thus, only gold rose in value as the medium of exchange thanks to Jackson refusing to accept anything but gold.

This time around, bonds are legal tender so that is the money that will decline in value far more than anyone expects. Both the Bank of Japan and the ECB in Europe have wiped out their bonds markets for they have been the primary buyer of government debt which they cannot now resell."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/h...s-in-a-crisis/

The money-renters always demand a legal tender that is flexible so that they can speculate. Only a State issued paper currency fits this description because the State has taxing powers to fill the treasury. Private banks don't have taxing power so they can not respond to a bank run. A flexible currency is generally a good idea. BUT, any entity that is allowed to print currency will always over-print. It was the State that forced the FED to print to support wars.
What is needed is DISCIPLINE.
What politicians need is VOTES.
War mongers need WARS.

As the corporatocracy increases in wealth and power, it displaces public governance.
https://theoutline.com/post/7216/we-...=3&zi=g2jpwyqs

Regulatory capture is working out well for the money-renters.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ules-unimpeded
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Old 03-21-2019, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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China crash before U.S. crash

Much of the liquidity flowing into American markets came from China. Trump wants to end globalism and, that means decoup0ling from China.
US and China: From Co-Evolution to Decoupling | YaleGlobal Online
https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/...ion-decoupling
. Trump doesn't particularly want a trade agreement with China, He just wants them to crash. They are extremely vulnerable in the event of big job losses. Everything was previously focused on an export economy. They took the jobs of their best customers and, that model is broken. They planned to switch to a domestic consumption model. That didn't work because they couldn't raise wages.
Currently, they ( and the West print money to keep zombie employees working in zombie companies. It's not working out too well for them.

China is now locked in a battle; economic growth or political authority. Somebody is going to get the shaft. Trump is shoving the collapse ahead.
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...alclearmarkets

3/19 China’s banks have a hidden wave of bad debt – Bloomberg
3/20 Chinese companies defaulting at an ‘unprecedented’ level – CNBC


3/20 FedEx just warned the whole globe is slowing – CNBC
3/19 The bloodbath in U.S. shale stocks continues: worst is yet to come – SRSrocco Report
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Old 03-21-2019, 02:55 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Distortions eevrywhere,,, the CBs are stuck with "control P"

The Philips Curve is an equation that was previously relied on for economic forecasting.

Economics Help
The Phillips curve is an economic concept developed by A. W. Phillips stating that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment"
Now, there is general agreement that the Philips Curve is no longer accurate or applicable.
Unemployment is touted as 3.8% even though there are 96 million of working age who are not in the labor force. I suspect that the Philip's Curve has been highly distorted by automation and lies.

An inverted yield curve is the interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments.
A yield curve inversion shows that investors lack confidence in the near future.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kenRSs6okELVQ/
Most interest rates are all referenced to the 10 year treasury note. Since the FED GOV is printing to buy Treasury bonds, you can bet that any reference to the 10 year note and any inversions is based on bogus information.
3/20 10-year Treasury yield dives to the lowest in a year – CNBC
Just the same, investors are completely focused on these inversions.

Powell raised interest rates and caused a worldwide coronary infarction. Trump definitely wants a weak dollar and, Powell was going the opposite direction. After the markets cratered, Powell changed his mind. He didn't want the blame for setting off a meltdown.
3/21 “Fed returns to the punchbowl”: the biggest surprises in today’s Fed decision – ZH
3/21 Dollar slammed by dovish Fed; pound remains weak – CNBC
It is now painfully clear that fresh money printing is the only thing that is keeping markets alive. So, why did Powell raise rates?
3/21 Banks sink the most in 2 months, bearing the brunt of Fed’s dovish turn – Bloomberg
The banks are toast without fresh blood.
Not to mention stocks.
3/20 S&P 500 turns positive after Fed forecasts no rate hikes this year – CNBC

You can see socialism in action without having to leave America. The Dems are completely irresponsible when it comes to buying votes with promises.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog...ic_mayors.html

3/20 Abe describes BoJ’s inflation goal as means to spur growth – Reuters
Their population is falling and their foreign markets are shrinking but, growth will come back if they just give the banks enough money.
3/20 Canada sees 20 percent jump in bond issuance as deficit climbs – Reuters
So, the future little canucks will get to pay this off.
3/20 Most people want higher taxes on rich to support poor – OECD – Guardian
Sorry, this just isn't the answer.
3/20 “Today’s EU is the embodiment of bureaucratic hubris” – Claudio Grass
A jobs program for useless paper-pushers.

3/21 Italy: bus driver abducts 51 children, sets vehicle on fire – AP
Is it any surprise that he is from Senegal?
3/19 Consistency: the success of the Cayman Islands – SWP
Super Rich Hide $21 Trillion Offshore, Study Says - Forbes

Another interesting development, https://www.rt.com/news/454259-europ...rnment-survey/
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Old 03-22-2019, 04:27 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Worldwide QE,,, the cure for poverty

Last night's FOMC meeting made it official: the Fed has thrown in the towel, and central banks are committed to defying the business cycle
"The Fed’s mission ever since has been a determined exercise in defying the business cycle, and replacing it with an ever-expanding credit cycle.
the difference now is that we are reaching the most major inflection point since the global financial crisis as central bank policy medicine rapidly loses what little potency it had. In the meantime, the harm to the patient has only been adding up: the economic system is suffering fatigue from QE-driven inequality, malinvestment, a lack of productivity, never-ending cheap money and a total lack of accountability. "

"The UK’s biggest challenge may not even be the circus act known as Brexit, but rather the collapsing UK credit cycle which our economist Christopher Dembik has put at risking a 2% drop in UK GDP. If nothing changes over the next six to nine months, and nothing will change, the UK economy will be in free fall. Forget Brexit, UK assets are simply mispriced from the lack of credit juice in the pipeline."
Well shoot. Tell the BOE to print faster to save all the money renters.

'My economic studies really only taught me three useful things (but then, I’m a terrible economist):

• The yield curve is never wrong.
• Say’s law (supply creates its own demand).
• Productivity is everything."

The yield curve never met so much QE
Supply does NOT create it's own demand when non-consuming robots are creating the supply
Productivity without consumption is a complete waste of time and materials. That's where the endless wars come into the picture.
https://www.home.saxo/insights/conte...hat-comes-next

"First understand what the capitulation means: It means that all their 2018 statements of optimism and predictions of raising rates in 2019 and previous insistences on a balance sheet roll-off being on”autopilot” were all wrong. Reality and markets rolled over them. They didn’t see the slowdown coming and only after markets dropped 20% in December did they change their policy stance and have now cemented a dovish stance for years to come."
"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish, none will reduce their balance sheets. 10 years after the financial crisis no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally.
I venture to guess which means funding requirements will explode higher beyond even the current absurdity of already running trillion deficits at the end of a long business cycle."
"The Fed started cutting rates in December another 3 months later. The recession began in March of 2001, 4 months later.

Compare to now:
"And here we are another 3 months later and markets are at risk of peaking here, engaged in a major topping pattern. So you see this script aligns much more closely to the 2000 scenario versus the 2007 scenario."
https://northmantrader.com/2019/03/2...ion-is-coming/

"Varoufakis explains that Europe needs a new source of investment money that does not involve higher taxes or government deficits. DiEM25 proposes for this purpose “an investment-led recovery, or New Deal, program … to be financed via public bonds issued by Europe’s public investment banks (e.g. the new investment vehicle foreshadowed in countries like Britain, the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund in the European Union"
"Public development banks already have a successful track record in Europe, and their debts are not considered debts of the government. They are financed not through taxes but by the borrowers when they repay the loans. Like other banks, development banks are moneymaking institutions that not only don’t cost the government money but actually generate a profit for it. "
"Roosevelt’s New Deal was largely funded through the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC), a public financial institution set up earlier by President Hoover. Its funding source was the sale of bonds, but proceeds from the loans repaid the bonds, leaving the RFC with a net profit. The RFC financed roads, bridges, dams, post offices, universities, electrical power, mortgages, farms, and much more; and it funded all this while generating income for the government."
Wait, what about the Wall Street banks?

"The invariable objection to that solution is that it would act as an inflationary force driving up prices, but as argued in my earlier article here, this need not be the case. There is a chronic gap between debt and the money available to repay it that actually needs to be filled with new money every year to avoid a “balance sheet recession.” As UK Prof. Mary Mellor formulates the problem in Debt or Democracy (2016), page 42:

A major contradiction of tying money supply to debt is that the creators of the money always want more money back than they have issued. Debt-based money must be continually repaid with interest. As money is continually being repaid, new debt must be being generated if the money supply is to be maintained.… This builds a growth dynamic into the money supply that would frustrate the aims of those who seek to achieve a more socially and ecologically sustainable economy."
"In addition to interest, says Mellor, there is the problem that bankers and other rich people generally do not return their profits to local economies. Unlike public banks, which must use their profits for local needs, the wealthy hoard their money, invest it in the speculative markets, hide it in offshore tax havens, or send it abroad.

To avoid the cyclical booms and busts that have routinely devastated the US economy, this missing money needs to be replaced; and if the new money is used to pay down debt, it will be extinguished along with the debt, leaving the overall money supply and the inflation rate unchanged"
Very good idea,,, very good article.
https://ellenbrown.com/2019/03/21/mo...-public-banks/

Keynes, "Keynes wrote a lovely little essay, Economic Prospects for our Grandchildren, in which he airily forecast that in a century's time (he wrote in 1930) we would all be working 15 hour weeks. For we would have, essentially, conquered the economic problem of scarcity."
"But this is only a temporary phase of maladjustment. All this means in the long
run that mankind is solving its economic problem. I would predict that the
standard of life in progressive countries one hundred years hence will be
between four and eight times as high as it is to-day. There would be nothing"
"Economic growth over that time has been of that order. We are about 8 times richer than our grandparents were in the early 1930s."
NOT true, we can't afford a house or kids.

"However, here's the crucial forecast by Keynes:

For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody
will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for
ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties
and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread
thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely
shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the
problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the
old Adam in most of us!"

Keynes was aware of the problems with human nature.
So, how were the PTB to keep us working full time? They had to steal the value of our wages through constant currency inflation,,, resulting in price inflation. The bankers did their part by taking our money and, speculating against us. The State charged us about 40% of our income for taxes to keep us on the treadmill. President Reagan said that the grace commission proved that "not one dime of tax money goes to the federal government. "
Walter Burien at CAFR 1 has proved that GOV doesn't need to collect taxes. 37,000 government agencies have about $237 trillion stashed away from fines, fees and licenses. The University of California system reports in their Annual CAFR report that they have assets of $91 billion. One example of 37,000.
https://www.cafr1.com/

The PTB constantly suck dry the producer. The growing problem is that; robots don't pay taxes. Say's Law was created at a time when everything was produced by a worker who received a wage.
Determined to keep us working, the military-industrial-banking complex creates enormous quantities of goods to be destroyed,,, rather than improving our standard of living.
The emerging socialists talk of taking wealth from the super rich. This really isn't a viable idea. Wages can't really be raised in a competitive economy. What does that leave?
After Great Depression I, the Glass-Steagal act took our savings away from the banks so that they could not frontrun and speculate against us.
Slick Willy repealed this with the Graham-Leachy-Bliley act.

A return of Glass-Stegal would reverse decades of price inflation.
Armstrong said that FED GOV should just print the money it needs to pay it's bills. This would remove the income tax drain on everybody.
The finance sector went from being 7% of the economy to being about 40% of the economy. How can a parasite grow so big when it is just a non-producer? 50% of the cost (average) of everything that you buy is for is for upstream finance.
A realistic cure for poverty is not,,, raising wages or taking money from the rich.
Pry loose the finance sector from the jugular vain of commerce.
Then, maybe we can talk about the 15 hour work week.
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Old 03-22-2019, 11:19 PM
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BroMikey BroMikey is online now
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Smoke and Mirrors against the FED, the real low down on Trump's
magic wand. Donald has been a money man from his youth.

Bringing you up to speed. Chop chop.


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