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Old 12-30-2018, 04:53 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Fear and liquidity

When we went off the gold standard, banks were able to conjure up near endless liquidity. Exter's Pyramid shows an inverted pyramid with gold at the bottom and, derivatives at the top. Each level in the pyramid had a decreasing level of "moneyness". Each level in the pyramid needed an increasing level of confidence. After we escaped gold, we had increasing liquidity built on increasing confidence. This translated to increased tangible wealth for the non-producers.
Finance is now 40% of the economy and 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV.
There were 21,995,000 employed by federal, state and local government in the United States. As a percentage, this has been falling.
They're just getting paid a lot more now.

This constant expansion of liquidity has mostly benefited the banks. Confidence has recently changed for the worse. Liquidity has supplanted money.
"I would posit that some time ago Liquidity completely supplanted the monetary aggregates as the key focal point for market flow analysis. Unfortunately, there is no quantity of “Liquidity” to measure and tabulate. I am not familiar with an adequate definition or even common understanding."
"Liquidity is an amalgam of real financial flows and intangible market perceptions. There is no aggregate that would signal whether Liquidity is either expanding or contracting. "

You can't measure liquidity because you can't measure confidence. The "VIX" is called the "fear gauge" It wobbles around but, is only indicative. Liquidity has collapsed to the lowest on record.

"What murdered functioning markets is intervention by central banks, in alleged attempts to save those same markets."
The CBs were desperate to rescue the non-producers. Markets had a total panic attack when the original TARP bill was turned down.
"Now Jerome Powell and the Fed he inherited are apparently trying to undo the misery Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen before him wrought upon the economic system"
Powell and Volker are Goy and, exceptions to the rule. Rubin was the one who got rid of our gold.
" Central banks don’t serve societies, they serve banks. They fool everyone, politicians first of all, into believing that societies automatically do well if only the demands of banks are met first, "
I have frequently shown that the STATE is the entity that forced the CBs to buy GOV bonds. You can blame it on the CBs for sure. BUT,
Wilson approved the creation of the FED. Wilson brought us into WW I. Roosevelt got us into WW II to save England and, hopefully drag us out of Great Depression one.,
Of course, Great Depression one was caused by the FED.

"In physics terms, price discovery, and therefore markets themselves -provided they’re ‘healthy’ and ‘functioning’- delivers negative feedback to the system, i.e. it injects self-correcting measures. Take away price discovery, in other words kill the market, and you get positive feedback, where -simplified- changes tend to lead to ever bigger changes until something breaks."
"You can let interest rates rise, as Powell et al are indicating they want to do, but that will cut off debt growth, and since debt is exclusively what keeps the economy going, it will cut into economic growth as well"
"It’ll be a long time before markets actually function again, and we won’t get there without a world of pain. Which will be felt by those who never participated in the so-called markets to begin with."

"The only parties who have profited from rising home prices are the banks who dole out the mortgages and the zombie economy that relies on them creating the money society runs on that way. We have all come to rely on a bunch of zombies to keep ourselves from debt slavery, and no, zombies are not actually alive. Nor are the financial markets, and the economies, that prop them up."
"Among the first things in 2019 you will see enormous amounts of junk rated debt getting rated ever -and faster- lower , and the pace at which ever more debt that is not yet junk, downgraded to(wards) junk, accelerating."
Sucked into a black hole when the illusion of moneyness turns to smoke.
"It doesn’t look to me that a year from now we’ll see 2019 as a particular peaceful year, not at all like 2018. I called it from Chaos to Mayhem earlier, and I’m sticking with that. We’re done borrowing from the future,"

"After a brief pause, induced mainly by the threat of an unstoppable collapse in equity prices, the Fed will be forced to continue to raise interest rates to counter price inflation pressures, which will take the rise in the heavily suppressed CPI towards and then through 4%, probably by mid-year. The recent seizure in commercial bond markets and the withdrawal of bank lending for working capital purposes sets in motion a classic unwinding of malinvestments. Unemployment begins to rise sharply, and consumer confidence goes into reverse."

"Equity prices continue to fall, as liquidity is drained from financial markets by worried investors. The US enters a severe recession, which is similar in character to the 1930-33 period. The notable difference is in an unbacked pure fiat dollar, which being comprised of swollen deposits[ii] (currently 67% of GDP versus 36% in 2007), triggers an attempted reversal of deposit accumulation."
"Most of the ECB’s money has been spent on government bonds for a secondary reason, and that is to ensure Eurozone governments remain in the euro-system. Profligate politicians in the Mediterranean nations are soon disabused of their desires to return to their old currencies. Just imagine the interest rates the Italians would have to pay in lira on their €2.85 trillion of government debt, given a private sector GDP tax base of only €840bn, just one third of that government debt."
He's too blind to see that the Italians are just going to default.

"It never takes newly-elected Italian politicians long to understand why they must remain in the euro system, and that the ECB will guarantee to keep interest rates significantly lower than they would otherwise be. Yet the ECB is now giving up its asset purchases, so won’t be buying Italian debt or any other for that matter. "
Stay or go, interest rates will go up. They will do better to go and, default.
"A side effect of the ECB’s asset purchase programme has been the reduction of Eurozone bank lending to the private sector, which has been crowded out by the focus on government debt. This is illustrated in the following chart."
The GOV sucks in all the capital to support the bureaucrats and muizzies. Then, it defaults.

12/29 “Leveraged loans” bite: record-bad year-end for loan mutual funds & ETFs – WS Just wait for next year.
So much money has pulled out of the markets that; a normally low-amplitude movement creates a huge effect,,, volatility.
12/29 The Malaysia scandal is starting to look dire for Goldman Sachs – Rolling Stone We can only hope.
12/29 Don’t get fooled by Wednesday’s market action – Casey Research
A $64 billion rotation out of bonds and, into stocks created a 900 point move,,, chump change.
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Old 12-30-2018, 03:49 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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behavioral finance theorists

" three possible “echoes” deserve attention in coming weeks and months. "
"Whichever historical echo turns out to be loudest as the Great Monetary Inflation of 2011-18 enters its late dangerous phase. Whether we're looking at 1927-9, 1930-3, or 1937-8, the story will seem obvious in retrospect, at least according to skilled narrators. "
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Old 12-31-2018, 05:34 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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FED put,,,stabbing China,,,socialism = dis-incentive,,, Armstrong on Cheney

From the link in the previous post,
"The characteristic of 1926-8 was a “Fed put” in the midst of an incipient cool-down of asset inflation (along with a growth cycle slowdown or even onset of mild recession) which succeeds apparently in igniting a fresh economic rebound and extension/intensification of asset inflation"
So, the FED "put" was backstopping markets. There was a bit of a cool down and the FED tried to stop it.
Fast-forward, "Greenspan put was a term coined in the 1990s. It referred to a reliance on a stock market put option strategy that if utilized could help investors mitigate losses and potentially profit from deflating market bubbles. "
This was carried over by Bernanke and Yellen. The FED heads didn't want any investor to ever lose a dime. After decades of asset inflation, Powell is trying to unwind the inflation.
"Greenspan took on the Chairman role with the Fed’s first actions following the 1987 stock market crisis."
By blocking all negative corrections, the FED ensured that all markets and valuation would be artificial.

12/30 Trump says “big progress” made in US-China talks – Morningstar
It all depends on how you define progress. The PBOC created more liquidity than the BOJ, FED and ECB combined. The more debt, the more instability. Trump has pushed a dagger into China.

12/29 At 20, euro remains a currency giant on fragile footing – Japan Times
Footing ! WHAT footing?
You already know what socialism did to East Germany. Look what it has done to Venezuela.
Sultan Knish: Socialism Can Kill You, But It Won't Bury You
"Capitalism, as it is acknowledged unreservedly in the Communist Manifesto, brought about economic growth, technical progress and unprecedented prosperity to the world. However, it also generated unemployment, fluctuations and crises, frequently and on an increasingly large scale, thus creating over time an ever-increasing inequality, especially in the last post-War period. The rise of socialism is rooted in these drawbacks of capitalism."

"drawbacks of capitalism." The drawbacks of capitalism are easily understood. Capitalism is competitive. It has no rewards for the lazy and the stupid. The lazy and the stupid want to consume just like the productive people. As more and more job niches are automated, more and more people are falling off the end of the job ladder. For a great many of them, it isn't their fault that they chose a career path that was susceptible to automation. Socialism isn't going to make stupid people smart. It isn't going to provide motivation to lazy people,,, quite the opposite.
"ever-increasing inequality"
A New Kind of Classroom: No Grades, No Failing, No Hurry - The New ...
A-F school grades aren't the answer if we want to raise empathetic and self-motivated students

Socialism just doesn't prepare a person for the competitive capitalist workplace. Being a slacker in school doesn't prepare a person for a competitive workplace. Man competes for survival. The slackers are drawn to government jobs. In America, GOV jobs account for about 10% of the population. In Saudi Arabia, it is 78%.
"The nonprofit Transparency International says it has identified at least 511 companies that are either wholly or majority owned by the government of Venezuela — and 70 percent of them are losing money,

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article138402248.html#storylink=cpy"
Venezuela destroyed their oil industry by replacing experienced engineers with socialist flunkies. In an effort to support the lazy and the stupid, socialism invariably breaks the bank.

Most investors operate on a thin margin. If a market isn't predictable, they either leave or, demand more margin / interest. Volatility is the death of markets because nobody knows what to invest in.

12/29 Opioid crisis leaves 700,000 Americans dead: “epidemic continues to worsen” – ZH
YES, but, it was profitable. That's all that matters in certain quarters.
This is the best news in years (crosspost) https://www.theamericanconservative....attis-dunford/

Armstrong on Dick Cheney,,, and the depths of the swamp.
"The World Trade Center 7 collapsed like a pancake when no plane ever touched it. That building has all the evidence of many things we will never know about. I have 20 years worth of recordings that would have been enough to put all the major New York trading banks in prison"

Armstrong says that the FED is raising rates to rescue the pension funds. I claim that it will never work in time.
Armstrong, "Therefore, the Fed realizes that the next crisis is a pension crisis and they need to raise rates to help try to bail out the pension funds. They will not be able to raise the rates fast enough to avoid the crisis coming very rapidly which will contribute to raising tax rates and further suppressing economic growth into the future."
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Old 01-01-2019, 05:20 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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4 good articles

Here is a great article that covers everything.
The higher the leverage, the less actual capital you need.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Crisis of Capital
Another good article;
Your advanced degree allows you to survive paycheck to paycheck.
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Old 01-01-2019, 08:08 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Labor-value,,,automation,,, consumption,,, debt

Capitalism is defined as ; taking something from nature and, adding your labor. Then trading this for something that you want. Even hunter-gatherers might trade spear points for hides,,, or whatever. The family and the clan were the original socialist units where the producers supported the non-producers to create offspring and genetic survival. Capitalism is the only system that works in the long run. Nobody works for free for those who are not direct genetic lineage.
Socialism endeavors to perpetuate a free-ride for people who are not our direct genetic lineage. Socialism has always failed because it runs counter to human nature. It has been tried over and over but fails.
Slavery works because of the lash and the whip. Wage-slavery works to transfer our labor value to the controllers. The State has locked up ALL private lands so that we can't exit the system and live a meager existence on a small plot of land. We have to keep running on the treadmill of productivity to transfer our labor-value to the rich. The State also taxes us exorbitantly to keep us on the treadmill.

The worker on the treadmill is supporting 2 groups. 1. The underachievers who have no niche in the private workplace. 2. The banker and bureaucrat who gain their sustenance by manipulating the instrument of exchange.
Redistribution to the non-employable is called socialism.
Redistribution to the banker & bureaucrat is called fascism.... sometimes, communism.
As far as the actual worker is concerned, it is theft of labor. He is held in chains by either the lash or the lawbook.

"CAPITALISTS PURCHASE labor-power on the market. In general, the wage--the price of labor-power--is, like all other commodities, determined by its cost of production, which is in turn regulated by struggles between workers and capitalists over the level of wages and benefits, and by competition between workers for jobs."
"In other words, the price of labor-power is determined by the cost of food, clothing, housing and education at a given standard of living. Marx adds that "the cost of production of...[labor-power] must include the cost of propagation, by means of which the race of workers is enabled to multiply itself, and to replace worn-out workers with new ones." So, wages must also include the cost of raising children, the next generation of workers."
That's not happning any more.

"The crucial point is that the cost of wages or labor-power depends on factors completely independent of the actual value produced by workers during the labor process. This difference is the source of "surplus value," or profit. So let's compare the price of labor-power to the value, expressed in price, of the commodities that workers creates through their labor."
"Similarly, struggles over wages and benefits are struggles over the value and price of labor-power, which is an expression of workers' standard of living. Capitalists seek to lower wages and slash benefits, decreasing the price of labor-power in order to increase the accumulation of surplus value, to maximize their profits."
Wages in America have been static for decades. The native birthrate has crashed at the same time. The southern border was left open to keep wages depressed. With the advent of containerized shipping, the jobs were simply sent to low-age producers. Any demands by workers for decent wages is met by either outsourcing or automation.
CNC robots don't demand wages or retirement. They are also self-propagating to a great extent.

"Most importantly, Marx's theory of exploitation reveals that because the source of capitalists' wealth is the unpaid labor of workers, the interests of workers and capitalists--like slave and master or serf and lord before them--are diametrically opposed and are impossible to reconcile. The two will always come into conflict since capitalists can only increase their share of the wealth at the expense of workers"
"But as long as the capitalist system exists, workers will be exploited, and their unpaid labor will remain the source of the profits that are the lifeblood of the system."

"I suggest environmentalist critiques often misunderstand Marx’s value theory as a theory that “values” workers over nature. His critical theory is better understood as an explanation of how capitalist value exploits both workers and the environment."
" Marx’s contention that nature does not contribute to value helps us explain its degradation under capitalism"

The world is not in a crisis of productivity. It is in a crisis of consumption. Since wages have stagnated, the State through, warfare and welfare has tried to maintain consumption.
"unpaid labor will remain the source of the profits that are the lifeblood of the system"
OK, how much are we talking about? Take a look at this graph.
THIS is the source of wealth transfer to the rich. The unpaid labor of automatic machines. Energy figures very high on this list.
We lost out to automated machines and consequently, cut back on consumption and procreation. Our wages just did not cover the cost of creating replacement workers who have no job prospects.

The finance sector of the economy has created a bubble that is multiples of the GDP. The human-machine partnership wiped out human reproduction in Japan decades ago. The fertility rate in China is only 1.6. 25% below replacement. Runaway automation will ensure that consumption by humans will continue to drop. The current financial bubble is an effort to counter the effects of a drop in consumption.

Many writers have speculated what the financial landscape will look like AFTER the crash. What could possibly bring a renewal of the birth rate?,,,consumption?,,,debt money?,,, credit?
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Old 01-02-2019, 02:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Prognosis for 2019

Ronald Reagan Quotes. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.
The middle class stopped consuming and, the State tries to be a stand-in for the missing consumption. But, WE are the State.
Another epic economic collapse is coming - The Washington Post
$250 Trillion in Debt: the World's Post-Lehman Legacy - Bloomberg

The State has been subsidising TOO MANY entities. The public debt is just too high. The private sector unloaded everything on Uncle Sam.
Here's who owns a record $21.21 trillion of U.S. debt - MarketWatch
Remember that this figure doesn't include $3 trillion owed to SS,,,, part of the $212 unfunded liabilities (Kotlikoff)

We are starting a new year. Which way will the winds of sentiment and confidence blow?
You can bet that the shutdown and turmoil in the District of Corruption will spook the markets.

The yield curve has always been a good predictor of recession. It's not looking good right now. There is too much volatility of investors to stomach.

12/31 China’s December manufacturing contracts even more than expected – CNBC
12/31 Japan and China forge alliance to boost fiscal stimulus – SCMP

Stimulus to who? Both have a shrinking population. China's Belt and Road initiative is trying to develop external markets. But, the global mean wage doesn't allow for much consumption.
1/01 Chinese markets’ 2018 performance was their worst in a decade – CNBC
China is strangling on pollution.
Also, automation isn't going to go away. https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-c...into-machines/

The markets have finally come to the realization that solar power is a technology, NOT a fuel. As such, they will no longer fund losing proposition like Nuke power or coal power. Natural gas too is losing market share to solar. This will play havoc with energy markets.
Germany just closed their last coal mine. Hawaii has shown the way to going to 100% solar.

#15 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, almost 1 out of every 4 children in rural areas is currently living in poverty.

#16 At this point, almost 52 percent of all children live in a home that receives monthly help from the federal government.

"#21 In 1980, the average American worker’s debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary. Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.

#23 According to one recent study, the “rate of people 65 and older filing for bankruptcy is three times what it was in 1991”.

#24 More than 100 churches in the United States are dying every single week."
#28 The number of married couples with children in the U.S. just reached a 56 year low.

#29 In the city of Baltimore, approximately one out of every four babies is born as an opioid addict.
44 Numbers From 2018 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe

1/01 Prepare for global debt bubble collapse in 2019 – Goldcore
1/01 FTSE 100 tumbles by 12.5% in 2018 – its biggest fall in a decade – Guardian
1/01 Looking forward to Dow 11,000 – Bear’s Lair
1/01 2019 market meltdown: what the new year brings – SRSrocco Report
1/01 Record outflow from US junk bond funds in 2018 – AFR

So, what is all this going to do for confidence?

Here is an article from Kunstler. You should read the whole thing. The newly Dem Controlled house will be in a full-on battle with Trump. They will NOT bother to address minor things like an economic collapse. What about the debt?
"Inflation is typically the choice of governments because it reduces the face value of debts while it allows government to pretend that it is taking action. In the end, you may have plenty of worthless money, which is no different from having not enough money that retains value. The latter was the main feature of the Great Depression.

So, inflation is the usual choice, but it also typically leads to incendiary resentment among the citizenry when they realize they’ve been played and it takes a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread and a jar of peanut butter."

"Bulls and bears – both human and artificial – will fight to the death for the upper hand.

By mid-year, however, the bulls will have exhausted their resources. Shrewd investors will sell the multiple bounces leading up to the summer months, and go to cash and gold. About this time, the brief boon to businesses from President Trump’s tax cuts will be over. The economy will be en route to recession.

Predictive models based on faulty earnings estimates will be thrown out the window. Pre-programmed buying will morph to pre-programmed selling, and an abrupt collapse will be triggered. The bottom will drop out of the stock market in short order.

By October, as Wall Street and Washington scream for the Fed to do something, new experiments in ZIRP, NIRP, QE, and Fed equity purchases, will be rolled out with poise and confidence. Yet the Fed’s efforts to pump liquidity into the financial system will have little avail. Reality will be delivered to investors like buckets of ice water to the face.

An abrupt, yet destructive, bear market will extend into early 2020. When the dust clears, the S&P 500 will have decline by 60 percent from its record high. Yet that’s nothing. Treasury investors are in for much greater levels of capital destruction…"
"Moreover, we are 100 percent certain that 2019 will be the year that yields commence their long-term rise in earnest. After many years of being wrong about the end of the great Treasury bond bubble, it is about time we were right."
Evidence indicates that interest rates can never rise while the population is falling. How do you raise interest cost when wages are static and population is falling?
Pretty good article.
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Old 01-03-2019, 04:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Nobody knows which way to run for cover

Charles Hugh Smith has lots to say that is well worth reading.
Armstrong, "in early 2019 trading, it looked as though we were set to resume the ‘sell at any price’ trend" "The trigger today was the China Factory Activity, as it released way below consensus and encouraged a 3% in the Hang Seng and a 1.2% fall for Shanghai."
1/01 Chinese markets’ 2018 performance was their worst in a decade – CNBC
So, don't buy Chinese stocks.
Avoid US stocks, Go With Emerging markets - Morgan Stanley
The merging markets have $13 trillion in debt that is increasingly more difficult to service.

There is a very good reason that quantitative easing isn't done. With a flow of new liquidity entering the markets, nobody can formulate a strategy for long-term investment. They have to lock in to short term investments. Valuations for short term assets get overly inflated. This causes a yield curve inversion and, everybody knows that short term assets are primed for a fall. The world-improvers are trying to inflict socialism on America. Did they cause the FED to maintain QE? Did the FED do it on it's own? Greenspan, Brnanke and Yellen insisted that we needed 2% inflation,,,, to maintain price stability. The Goy FED heads wanted nothing to do with this.

QE Has Done Something Much More Damaging Than The Fed Could Have Imagined
"The abnormally long, QE-fueled bull market killed off anything that wasn't, at its core, a short volatility strategy. Now, whether it's risky credit, levered equities, or risk parity, almost all strategies are taking similar risks. QE has done something much more damaging than the Fed could have imagined. It changed the very nature of the market,"

"If we have a recession with overnight rates still at 2.50%, what can the Fed do? Coordinated easing with the ECB and BOJ is off the table -- their rates are negative and they're running out of assets to buy for QE. At least the Fed won't have that issue. With surging budget deficits, the Fed will have plenty of Treasuries to buy. And that's only just begun, because the next put for the markets is really from fiscal, not monetary policy."
But, will the FED buy treasuries after all the warning signs?

1/02 ECB appoints temporary administrators for troubled Italian bank Carige – CNBC
The whole board of directors walked out. What is the admin going to do?
1/02 It’s time to dump FAANG investing in the trash – Yahoo!
All the FAANGs are falling badly. Sentiment and confidence don't look good so, this will probably go down for several more weeks.

1/02 Yield curve ends year flattest since 2007 – Reuters
1/02 Why we should worry about the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverting – Forbes

The ECB is the only entity buying Italian debt. Will the FED be the only one buying U.S. debt?
1/02 Australian home prices mark worst year since 2008 – Reuters
When China sneezes,,,,,

"Let’s start by talking about politics. According to Axios, Donald Trump is currently the subject of 17 different investigations.

Yes, you read that correctly.

We have never seen anything like this in American history. Even during the Nixon era there was some measure of restraint, but at this point they are trying to come up with any angle that they possibly can to get rid of Donald Trump.

And the left truly believes that this is the year that they are going to get rid of him. In fact, the Hill just published an article containing 30 predictions for 2019, and these were the top three…

Donald J. Trump’s presidency will not survive 2019;
The downward trajectory of every aspect of his tenure indicates we are headed for a spectacular political crash-and-burn — and fairly soon;"
"Unfortunately, economic conditions are really starting to slow down, and big corporations are beginning to announce large scale layoffs. Just like we saw during the last recession, eventually there will be millions of Americans that lose their jobs, and mortgage defaults will spike dramatically once again.

And just like in 2008, the stock market is starting to plunge in a major way.

2018 was the worst year for the stock market in a decade, we just witnessed the worst month of December for Wall Street since the Great Depression, and at this point approximately 12 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has been wiped out."
2019: It Is Going To Be Much Worse Than You Think… – End Of The American Dream
Ukraine is going down hard and fast. It was recently proved that they shot down the MH17 flight. Food is getting expensive, https://www.rt.com/business/447207-e...ending-rating/
Fresh Russian sanctions will make things worse.
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Confidence has turned to doom loops

Ronnie Rayguy put together the plunge protection team. Their job was to put a floor under the markets if they fell too much. It did work after a fashion. The Western CBs put together a cartel to suppress the price of gold. It did work for several years. There are lots of claims that the PPT is at work again, trying to stop the fall in markets. Along with the PPT is the exchange stabilization fund.. Remember that these groups have a key to the printing press and, it doesn't cost anything to pump in liquidity.
Armstrong claims that the PPT can not change anything. BUT, his program Socrates gets the RSS feeds and knows ALL. Did Socrates allow for the actions of the PPT in it's calculations?
Here is Armstrong to tell you that nobody can manipulate the markets.
A. Socrates knows what the PPT is doing.
B. It is OBVIOUS that the markets can be controlled in the short run.

"All of this rates discussion at a time of worry about a looming economic slowdown thanks to the possibility of a trade war, along with worries among monetarists and supply-siders (who should know better) who fear the Fed’s alleged cessation of its “easy money” policies will stop the present economic boom in its tracks. Couldn’t the Fed undo its supposed damage through so-called monetary ease? No, it couldn’t. “Easy money” is a myth, one that members of the right should be embarrassed to associate themselves with.

Seemingly forgotten by proponents of what's so flamboyantly ridiculous it is that borrowers of dollars are not borrowing the currency itself. In truth, they’re borrowing what dollars can be exchanged for. In commercial terms, borrowers seek dollars in order to exchange them for capital goods like trucks, tractors, computers, WiFi access, and most crucial of all, human capital."
You see the fallacy, don't you. Borrowers are NOT borrowing dollars to buy tractors. They are borrowing dollars to speculate. They are NOT borrowing dollars to invest in human capital. Robots, maybe, but not people.

If you borrow money for pure consumption, you likely can't repay it. If you borrow money for investment, there is a good chance that you can repay it. If you borrow money for pure speculation, you might be able to repay it. If EVERYBODY borrows money for pure speculation, they can't all repay it. When it all unwinds, everything is affected.

OK, so, the doom loops have started to loop and loop. What else does that affect?

An Inside Look At The Social Decay That Is Eating Away At America Like An Aggressive Form Of Cancer

1/03 China issues a stark warning about its housing sector – Zero Hedge
China is both a liar and, a cheerleader. If they issue a warning, it is probably too late to stop the crash.
1/03 Worse than obsolete: NATO creates enemies – Future of Freedom
1/03 NATO partisans started a new cold war with Russia – American Conservative

As long as it sells expensive arms, everybody should be happy.
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Banishing the business cycle,,,Preserving the power of the "elites"

Confidence runs in cycles.
Credit creation runs in cycles.
Economic activity runs in cycles.
1926-8 was a “Fed put”. This was an attempt to stop a normal, cyclical downtrend.
October of 1929, "We have permanently banished the business cycle and stocks are on a permanently high plateau. "
You know what happened next.
Pre-WW II, the FED bought war bonds. They were forever-after hooked up to buying federal debt. Small cyclical downtrends were smoothed out of the system. The credit cycle became a super-cycle because the buildup of bad debt was allowed to go on for a much longer time before it all blew up.
Greenspan executed the FED put to rev up the system after the 1987 crash. Naturally, the politicians thought this was great. 2 more FED heads followed the same path.
Here is a graph of gdp minus FED credit.

"I then took the GDP data and subtracted the annual federal budget deficit from the GDP. I did this because deficit spending is in essence "borrowing" prosperity from the future, either through direct government spending or through payments to states, local governments, and individuals who then go out and spend money. As we know, about 70% of GDP is consumer spending and about 60% of the federal government budget is devoted to payments directly to or for citizens. It's pretty easy to see how deficit spending artificially inflates GDP, since that borrowing leads directly to consumption which would not occur without it."
No president was willing to have the FED take away the punch bowl during his tenure. ALL credit cycles come to an end. Trump is willing to take the heat for a controlled demolition instead of letting things go uncontrolled. His corporate tax reduction made FED GOV that much weaker but, it bought some time for others to collapse first.

Smith, "Any political elite that delivers the bad news that prosperity is over risks being overthrown or voted out of office, and so the ruling elites seek to extend high returns on capital and general prosperity by any means available."
"Successful economies generate a double-bind once they reach the stagnation-decline phase: the populace (and capital) both expect strong permanent growth as a birthright, and they see the previous boost-phase and maturity phase as evidence that the economy "should" continue delivering outsized returns on capital and widespread prosperity essentially forever."
" The stagnation phase has many causes: a reduction in resources or depletion of soil/water resources; a sustained shortage of energy or a sharp rise in the cost of energy; stagnating productivity, and the rise of parasitic elites, insiders who feather their nests at the expense of the many.
All of these factors act as friction in the system, and eventually the system is unable to sustain the parasitic elites, high returns on capital and general prosperity."
That friction can be seen as the debt load and interest payments that is dragging down the system.

" You see the double-bind: the ruling class must deliver outsized returns on capital and general prosperity, and the only way they can do so is to create new money rather than new wealth, something that is beyond their power.
Depending on the wealth and productivity of the existing economy, the world may accept this new money as having value for a time. But as the need for more currency increases, ruling elites start to "print" or borrow new currency in excess of what the economy actually generates in income and value."
Been there,,, doing that.
"In developed economies, the ruling elites protect their own incomes and power, and those of capital, as the owners of capital are part of the ruling elite. The net result of this is rising income/wealth inequality as the few increase their share at the expense of the many. (Thomas Piketty characterized this process as a higher rate of return on capital than on labor.)"

" At that point the proponents and the ruling elites will be trapped: they won't be able to withdraw all the benefits ("free money") of QE for the People, nor can they reverse runaway inflation without drastically reducing the creation of currency.
Various politically expedient policies will be tried--wealth taxes, the issuance of a new currency, perhaps even a state cryptocurrency--but none of these can reverse the underlying dynamic."
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Crisis of 2025

1/04 2019: mayhem, misallocation and mockery of true price discovery – Streetwise
1/04 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: the euro has failed and should be abolished – GATA

The Lisbon Treaty removed sovereign power from the individual States. Brussels then set itself up to destroy the productive class to enrich the bankers.

"Varoufakis identifies true economic purpose and consequences of the EU system and the Euro in their service to giant banks HSBC Holdings, Deutsche Bank, Crédit Agricole and BNP Paribas against Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portural, Cyprs and Spain and how the EU Central bank "fixed" the debt crisis by transferring the cost of the credit collapse to the victims via austerity and deflation. Before the EU Greeks had very little debt and 90% owned their own houses. "

Democracy and prosperity were destroyed in Europe to forever put the lower loop in servitude to the upper loop. The Kalergi Plan to destroy racial unity and harmony were forced in to ensure that no political movement would have the cohesiveness to challenge the bankers. Pritchard may talk about getting rid of the Euro, but, the PTB will make that prospect as painful as possible. You saw what they did to Greece to dissuade others from breaking away. What is unfolding in Europe is , neo-feudalism.
The Italian right & left united to battle it. The French are warming up for the fight. I wish them all luck.
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Old 01-06-2019, 03:39 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trying to exit the debt trap with as little damage as possible

The FED started out as a small, private group that created emergency liquidity and then, destroyed the new liquidity. This was too much temptation for the U.S. GOV to resist. The FED was hitched up to create fresh liquidity for the State to pay it's bills. Eg, warfare and welfare.
FED GOV is now the biggest debtor.
"However, the rolling over of old debts and the continual addition of new ones will almost certainly become a problem for governments everywhere. It is less of a problem when the debt is put to productive use, but that is rarely, if ever, the case with government finances. To judge whether the rolling over of debt is sustainable and at what cost, we need to rely on other metrics. The traditional method is to compare outstanding debt with GDP, and by using this approach two economists (Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff) came up with a rule of thumb, that once a government’s debt to GDP ratio exceeded approximately 90%, economic growth becomes progressively impaired.[ii]

Key to this reasoning is that rising debt levels divert savings from financing economic growth, and therefore a government’s ability to service it from rising taxes is undermined. At the Rubicon level of 90% and over, median growth rates in the countries sampled fell by 1%, and their average growth rates by “considerably more”. It is entirely logical that a government forced to tax its private sector excessively in order to pay debt interest will restrict economic potential overall.
So, just print new money.

To look at the increase of government debt between 2007 and 2009, as Reinhart-Rogoff did, was not, as it turned out, a long enough time-frame to fully reflect the consequences of the Lehman crisis on government debt. The increase recorded over 2007-09 was 32%, yet economists and others were still talking of austerity until only recently. The whole period between the Lehman crisis and the election of President Trump is perhaps a better time-frame, and we see that US Government debt between 2007 and 2016 increased by an astonishing 217%.
The State was / is stuck on control+P

It turns out that the Reinhart-Rogoff report severely understated the problem by reporting early. Their 90% debt to GDP Rubicon has been left behind anyway, with government debt to GDP ratios around the world in excess of 100% becoming common. In the case of the US, total Federal debt, including intragovernmental holdings, is currently over 105% and rising. The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting substantial budget deficits out to 2028, adding an estimated further $4.776 trillion in deficits between fiscal 2019-23, or $9.446 trillion between fiscal 2019-28.[iii]

This assumes there is no credit crisis, so for those of us who know there will be one during the next ten years, these numbers are far too optimistic. Accordingly, we should look at two possible outcomes
Our best-case outcome of controlled price inflation is essentially that forecast by the Congressional Budget Office. Working from the CBO’s own figures, by 2023 we can estimate accumulated debt including intragovernmental holdings will be $26.3 trillion[iv] including our estimated interest cost totalling $1.3 trillion[v].

That is our best case. Now let us assume the more likely outcome, our base case, which is where the effects of a credit cycle play a part. This will lead to a fall in Federal Government receipts and an increase in total expenditures. Taking the last two cycles (2000-07 and 2007-18) these led to increases in government debt of 59% and 239% respectively. Therefore, it is clear that borrowing has already been accelerating rapidly for a considerable time due in large measure to the destabilising effect of increasingly violent credit cycles. If the next credit cycle only matches the effects on government finances of the 2007-18 credit cycle, government debt including intragovernmental holdings can be expected to rise to $51.4 trillion by 2028.

Because the underlying trend is for successive credit cycles to worsen, the $51.4 trillion figure for federal Government debt becomes a base figure from which to work.
The growth in Federal debt that replicates the post-Lehman experience will leave the US Government with a debt to GDP ratio of over 170%. The CBO assumes GDP will increase by 48% by 2028 to $29.803 trillion, whereas our cyclical case is for debt to rise to $51.4 trillion.
Price inflation is already no longer something that can be dismissed by hedonics, product-switching and repackaging goods into smaller quantities. Ordinary people and businesses will increasingly baulk at the low levels of time preference that do not take real price inflation adequately into account. Therefore, it is hard to see how central banks will be able to suppress interest rates in the way they have managed in the past. That was the hard lesson learned in the UK in the 1970s: The Bank of England had higher interest rates forced upon it by markets, eventually peaking at 17% in 1979."

America has definitely entered a debt-trap. Powell is trying to do a controlled demolition. Powell has said that he won't resign even if Trump asks him.
Everybody KNOWS that the FED will eventually return to QE. I believe that Powell will refuse. Powell will take the heat instead of Trump. The previous FED heads destroyed the economy to save the banks. I believe that Powell will try to unwind all that without collapsing sovereign debt to nothing.
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Old 01-06-2019, 09:12 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Profitless prosperity,,, competing for investor money in the bond markett

Everybody saw that the runup to the dotcom was full of venture capitalists throwing $millions at anything that sounded like a good idea. Well, the FED has done it again. They pumped in megatons of liquidity. There weren't enough good investments to absorb all that liquidity so,,,, it flowed into bad invetsments.
The losses piled up very quickly and, everybody tired to get out. In the final analysis, there just wasn't enough profit to keep it all going. It is happening again. Profits don't matter,,,, just grow your share of the markets and, riches will follow,,for all participants.

"However, Tesla (TSLA – USA) is the clear thought leader in the Profitless Prosperity Sector where revenue growth is all that matters and profitability can be ignored indefinitely. When investors lose over $60 billion in Tesla equity value and learn that their bonds are severely impaired, they will stop investing in other money losing start-ups. The collapse of Tesla will be the catalyst for the rest of the Profitless Prosperity Sector to unwind.

Q3/2018 was the high water mark for Tesla’s supposed “profitability.” Q4/2018 will be the high water mark for deliveries. Both metrics will begin to comp negative in Q1/2019."
Amazon was the rare outlier to lose money for years while rapidly growing revenues before eventually inflecting towards profitability. Most copycat companies have no chance of ever becoming profitable—their businesses simply aren’t structured in a way that makes this possible. Even the winners trade at insane valuations. Yet, they have all somehow convinced investors to keep funding them because they are the “Amazons” of their respective sectors.

Without fresh cash, many of these businesses will collapse—quite rapidly. That is because they aren’t businesses—they are market share grabs in highly competitive industries with few barriers to entry. "
More importantly, after a decade of Profitless Prosperity, investors have a false sense of confidence. When the bubble unwinds, it will be fast and vicious as there is no natural buyer of a money losing business that’s run out of capital. It took half a decade to create the internet bubble yet it all vaporized in a few months. This bubble will also collapse at a similar rate."
If something cannot survive without fresh equity capital, if a valuation is justified by unlimited growth funded by future equity capital, if a company has yet to inflect into profitability, it’s time to re-assess your investment."
The Profitless Prosperity Sector Will Collapse... | AdventuresInCapitalism | Small Companies--Big Upside

I can't seem to copy from this article but, losing companies are at a level last seen in 2000.

Even the Chinese business model is focused on gaining market share and, ignoring profits.
China started out as an export economy but, planned to change over to an economy centered on domestic consumption. China previously had a very large current account surplus.
"for the first time in its modern history, China's current account balance for the first half of the year had turned into a deficit."
"Then back in November, UBS wrote that the upcoming loss of China's current account cushion, softening domestic activity, and upcoming tariffs mean that "for the first time in 25 years, China would have to make a choice between external stability and growth.
"and in early 2018, China got more of its growth from consumption than the U.S., the global king of consumer spending where some 70% of economic growth is due to consumer spending. And as China's increasingly wealthy population spends more at home and abroad, its total trade surplus with the rest of the world has shriveled to a fraction of its former size."
As a reference, China's trade surplus has shrunk by a third in just three years:

“Capital inflows, especially those into the bond market, will be very crucial for China’s balance of payments, as the current account will deteriorate further
if China’s bond market receives waves of overseas cash, that will help finance the deficits without running up a dangerous amount of debt in foreign currency. Then again, that's precisely the same boat that the US finds itself in as well.

Curiously, just like the US needs hundreds of billions in outside capital, so does China. Estimates on inflows in coming years vary from about $760 billion over the long term at Morgan Stanley to Goldman’s $1 trillion by the end of 2022 to $3 trillion through 2020 at UBS. "
So, China and America will be competing for investor cash. What about Japan and Europe? I think that those 2 are screwed.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:02 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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QE, the only game in town,,,BS from the BLS

“Italy has got four trillion in loans they said there are not going repay… France has got a similar situation but they’ve got civil unrest with the population burning down Paris."

'When market tumbled in 2015 and 2016, global central banks embarked on the largest combined intervention effort in history. The sum: More than $5 trillion between 2016 and 2017, giving us a grand total of over $15 trillion, courtesy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan:"
"When did global central-bank balance sheets peak? Early 2018. When did global markets peak? January 2018."
"In September 2018, for the first time in 10 years, the U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) removed one little word from its policy stance: “accommodative.” And the Fed increased its QT program. When did U.S. markets peak? September 2018."
"the ECB slowed its QE program and finally ended it in late 2018.
The DAX peaked in January 2018, as the ECB started reducing its QE program."

"What’s the larger message here? Free-market price discovery would require a full accounting of market bubbles and the realities of structural problems, which remain unresolved. Central banks exist to prevent the consequences of excess to come to fruition and give license to politicians to avoid addressing structural problems. And by preventing these market forces from playing out at each sign of trouble, the can gets kicked further and further down the road. Each successive recovery keeps the illusion alive,"
So, our wages wouldn't suffice to keep it all going. Free money for the bankers was the answer.

U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December and wage growth ...

Despite the headlined number (subject to revisions, including months after the fact), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admits that “(t)he confidence level for the monthly change in total employment is on the order of plus or minus” hundreds of thousands of jobs.
"The Labor Department’s so-called “birth-death model,” estimating net non-reported jobs from new businesses minus losses from others no longer operating, is a convenient way to add jobs that may not exist.

The BLS assumes workers from non-operating companies are employed elsewhere. From 30 – 50,000 more jobs are added monthly, assuming new business creations whether or not they exist."
" True unemployment is 21.3%, according to economist John Williams, reengineering the number based on how it was calculated in the 1980s – before numbers were manipulated lower to create the illusion greater jobs creation, low unemployment, and prosperity than exist.'

1/05 Bank of America says it’s ‘time to buy’ stocks and junk bonds – Bloomberg
Evidently, THEY are planning to sell these stocks to you.
1/05 Trump’s Fed attacks show why markets should set interest rates – The Hill
True, but, if the markets set the interest rate, the State would be broke long ago.
1/06 Iran’s central bank proposes slashing four zeros from falling currency – GATA
How about that? both Venezuela and Iran have LOTS of oil. Both have slashed at least three zeros off their currency. When will Saudi Arabia follow?
1/06 U.S. Senate’s first bill, in shutdown, is defense of Israel from boycotts – Intercept It's all about priorities.

1/06 Hacker group says ‘9/11 papers’, will ‘burn down’ US deep state – RT
Bring weinies and marshmallows.
Kunstler is at his pessimistic best.
And the Circus Came to Town - Kunstler
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:07 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Finance is freaked out by Powell slowly letting the air out of the bubble

A combination of factors has made the FED all-powerful in world financial markets.

Post-WW II, America became a powerhouse of manufacturing and profit. The FED became a de facto global leader because the U.S. dollar was such a stable currency.
Here is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard explaining that things have turned down so bad that the FED and Powell have relented on rate increases.

Acting Man has great graphs showing clearly what is happening.
The Automatic Earth laments the total world control the FED has.

Greenspan, "I never said that the FED is independent"
Previous presidents have always "caused" the FED to goose the economy on THEIR watch. Nobody seems to understand the vacillating that Powell is doing. He said that he will watch the economy VERY carefully. He is doing a controlled reduction of stimulus. He is trying to carefully let the air out of the bubble. Everybody throws rocks at the FED but, it is the State that gives them their marching orders.

"As I said in my 2018 forecast and again last week, I think a Federal Reserve policy mistake is our top risk. That’s less a “forecast” and more a recognition of reality, since the mistake is already happening. The Fed is raising rates and reversing its quantitative easing at the same time. They should be doing one or the other, not both. I think the global balance sheet reduction is especially harmful. I think/hope Jerome Powell will realize this in early 2019. If he doesn’t, or the rest of the FOMC disagrees with him, the year could get very rocky, very quickly.

I’ve been tough on the Fed but I may actually be understating the danger. My friend Chris Whalen described the problem last week. After noting work by economist Zoltan Pozsar, who said QE-created bank reserves aren’t “excess,” Chris wrote (with my bolding):

The obvious points to take from Pozsar’s work are two: First, the FOMC cannot withdraw the liquidity provided to the US financial system via QE without causing the system to implode. Chairman Jerome Powell needs to publicly state that the Bernanke-Yellen inflation in asset prices will entirely reverse as the FOMC tries to reduce “excess reserves” to pre-crisis levels. Regardless of whether the FOMC raises the Fed funds target rate or not, continuing to shrink bank reserves via QT implies a significant reduction in prices for stocks and real estate.

Second and more important, Powell needs to inform Congress that so long as the Treasury intends to run trillion-dollar-plus annual deficits, the Fed’s balance sheet must grow rather than shrink. To have the FOMC try to follow a narrative set in place half a century ago when fiscal deficits were minuscule is obviously impossible given the Treasury’s borrowing needs. This implies that the FOMC must embrace an explicit policy of inflation that is at odds with the legal mandate enshrined in Humphrey-Hawkins."

Historically, finance was about 7% of the economy,,,, even though it produced nothing. It is now about 40%. Here is a graph of GDP minus FED stimulus.
The entire finance sector has become grossly bloated by easy money that has negated ALL price discovery. The entire financial sector is desperate to keep it that way. The money supply inflation that floats the finance sector has caused price inflation in the working economy. Powell is trying to bring a legitimate reduction of the excesses of the finance sector to bring some relief to the non-finance sector. The finance sector doesn't like that one bit.
This isn't entirely correct. The FED has amply demonstrated that is narrowly focused on American markets.
Previously, ALL the CBs did QE to keep any one currency from becoming a safe haven. Under Trump, the FED broke ranks and raised interest rates to let some air out of the credit bubble. The Other CBs reluctantly joined the FED and cut back on their QE. Once again, they did this to forestall capital flight. The ongoing creep of increased socialism was all financed by QE. Trump has slashed at growing socialism by forcing foreign CBs to cut funding for runaway State welfare.
At the same time, the Powell FED is cutting way back on socialist support / funding for banker welfare.

"The Chinese, Japanese and Eurozone slowdown are all happening in the middle of massive stimuli and deficit spending"
Stimulus just can't make up for rising automation / falling employment.
Nobody seems to put the blame where it belongs. The wipeout of wages in the lower loop has created a wipeout in the finance sector.
1/06 Iran’s central bank proposes slashing four zeros from falling currency – GATA
And people wonder why everyone wants to hold dollars.
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Old 01-08-2019, 04:52 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Trump stabs the dragon,,,.IMF warning,,,bigger bumps in the finance road

Trump ain't taking any prisoners.
“Capital inflows, especially those into the bond market, will be very crucial for China’s balance of payments,"
"World Bank President Kim Unexpectedly Resigns"
"Kim began his second five-year term at the bank on July 1, 2017, after convincing the lender’s board of directors to reappoint him.

In the past year, the Trump administration has put pressure on the World Bank to justify its lending practices, including loans to China"
So, it looks like Trump has ousted the president of the World Bank to keep it from rescuing Chinese bond markets.
1/07 Looser China drops hints of trade pain ahead – Breaking News

"In the starkest warning yet about the upcoming global recession, which some believe will hit in late 2019 or 2020 at the latest, the IMF warned that the leaders of the world’s largest countries are "dangerously unprepared" for the consequences of a serious global slowdown. The IMF's chief concern: much of the ammunition to fight a slowdown has been exhausted and governments will find it hard to use fiscal or monetary measures to offset the next recession, while the system of cross-border support mechanisms — such as central bank swap lines — has been undermined,"
Donald Trump: 'I don't care about Europe
Read between the lines and you get; European banks won't get liquidity from the FED when the ECB collapses. No more swap lines because nobody wants the Euro currency.
Making America great, one bloodbath at a time.

"For reference: The 2008 financial crisis reversed more than 100% of the advance from the 2002 lows to the 2007 highs. So if anyone thinks such a move is impossible, it indeed is the historic reversal record of the last 2 bubbles.

Except this time central banks have much less ammunition 😳."
" Indeed we saw record redemptions in December following record passive ETF inflows in the early half of 2018."
"Note this correction was no ordinary correction, in fact it was extraordinary "
"These reconnects look much better now but still haven’t fully reconnected yet and hence the potential for a retest of December lows with a new low is a very probable scenario at some point in 2019."
"A horrific outcome for market participants would be if even a positive resolution to trade wars cannot change the structural business cycle realities and a global recession ensues as evidenced by slowing production, revenues and earnings."
Not one mention of wages.
"And then all of us would be confronted with the scariest unknown monster of all: A coming downturn with central banks never having normalized policy and a lot less ammunition in their coffer compared to previous downturns."
It is ALL about the finance sector. Consumption doesn't matter.

"The energy sector was at or near the bottom of the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, Sanzillo pointed out. And that was true even within segments of the oil and gas industry. For instance, companies specializing in hydraulic fracturing fell by 30 percent, while oil and gas supply companies lost 40 percent. "
"Oil demand growth is flat in developed countries"
So, demand and consumption do eventually matter.

1/07 Average UK household debt now stands at record £15,400 – Guardian
1/07 Theresa May pleads for EU to give ground and rescue Brexit deal – Guardian
EC Rules Out Brexit Renegotiation - Will Continue Implementing No-Deal Plan
This is head bashing at it's finest,,,, just to see whose head can take the most bashing.

Last edited by Danny B; 01-08-2019 at 03:07 PM. Reason: speleng
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Old 01-08-2019, 03:38 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The CBs wind down liquidity, finance cried in their champagne

"• Global Liquidity falling at its fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis

• Over-zealous Central Banks are largely to blame. Not a broken banking system like 2007/08 Crisis
They are over-zealous if they don't keep pumping up the bubble. The finance community doesn't care how much damage is done by QE, they never want the party to stop.
"World private sector liquidity has fallen by some US$3 trillion, with roughly two thirds of the drop coming from the Developed economies, while World Central Bank liquidity has fallen by another US$1.1 trillion, with two-thirds of its drop recorded in Emerging Markets, paced by their large foreign reserve losses. Added together, Global Liquidity has in total fallen by just over US$4 trillion to US$124.1 trillion.

This 3% drop looks more serious when set against its 7% ‘normal’ trend. Put another way, after its brief recovery Global Liquidity has fallen back again to stand some 25% below its long-term trend."
ALL BS. It's RECENT long term trend since the FED started pumping about 1989. A 30 year bond bull market does wonders for the private sectors but, it destroys the public debt sector.
"Central Banks have an outsized-effect in deregulated financial systems, where retail deposits are not the sole funding source, because what matters most is the ability to re-finance positions and at the margin Central Banks are the marginal suppliers of liquidity. Put another way liquidity is not fungible in crises, the very times that it matters most, and so Central Bank interventions are required. "
Nope, we can't let any institution fail.

"Figure 2 shows the dramatic expansion in the size of the US dollar money markets to around US$9 trillion and the dominant role played by the US Federal Reserve in the period since 1980. These markets have increasingly supplemented retail deposits and now fund a rising proportion of US credit and liquidity, notably wholesale lending activity."
Thank you Alan Greenspan, you juiced it all up and, screwed anybody who wasn't connected to the free money spigot.

"Consequently, traditional banks do not face the same funding constraints as other financial intermediaries, so making their lending more elastic. In theory, as long as capital requirements are met, the traditional banking system can accommodate additional credit demands by simply creating new means of payment in the process of making new loans."
Love that elasticity. The lower loop calls it inflation.
"However, shadow banks largely repackage and recycle existing savings. By lengthening intermediation chains they became involved in large volumes of wholesale funding, without creating much new lending. The data show that they are involved in 66% of gross funding, but directly account for barely 15% of new lending. Shadow banks, therefore, increase the elasticity of the traditional banking system by relaxing banks’ capital requirements, through, say, selling loans externally to GSEs or internally to off balance sheet vehicles, so boosting the credit multiplier. "
They have over-stretched the elastic with too many multipliers.

" Yet, shadow banks could not have originated the credit boom that preceded the 2007/08 Crisis, since they themselves depend on bank credit. The fragility of this wholesale funding model based on short-term repos has heightened systemic risks, not least because it is market collateral-based and highly pro-cyclical, and it always threatens to feed-back negatively on to the funding"
Keep running faster an faster.

"Therefore, we suggest that, unlike the 2007/08 Crisis which was more about a broken banking system involving the sudden collapse of leverage among over-extended banks and shadow banks, the current credit squeeze looks more like the 1997/98 Asian Crisis when Central Banks, led by the US Fed, tightened the supply of primary liquidity and cross-border flows rapidly retreated. This time around financial markets are probably even more interconnected and more global. Consequently, this could be an Asian Crisis-like sell-off, but one not only confined to Asia. "
" sudden collapse of leverage" No mention of default by home buyers.

"The explanation for this collapse is that in the run-up to 2007/08 shadow banks had been borrowing against new collateral, such as US dollar deposits, and re-hypothecating existing collateral (i.e. the so-called collateral multiplier) to create what might be dubbed a ‘shadow monetary base’"
So, you multiplied my house.

Kunstler, "The national chain retail model has fallen apart, along with new car sales. Something is up in this foundering land, despite all the heraldic trumpet blasts on cable news about the “booming economy.”

What’s up is the international implosion of the bad debt, and the fading illusion that it doesn’t matter. It has any number of ways to express itself, from store closings, to dissolving pensions, to stock market instability, to divorce, homelessness, and war. It’s what you get from a hyper-financialized economy that doesn’t really produce wealth but only steals it from somewhere else."
"Zero interest rates made savings a mug’s game, and zero interest rates were necessary to extend the borrowing far beyond the credible boundaries of repayment. Debt isn’t capital, it just pretends to be for a period of time. Wall Street made its trillions off the time-value of that pretence and now time is up."
A Farewell to "Bargain Shopping" - Kunstler

1/08 California’s new governor needs to address pension crisis – LA Times
Democrat proposes government-funded healthcare for all illegal ..
I'm sure that they will get all of this worked out.
1/08 Cities across OC struggle with law enforcement and fire pensions – Voice OC
I'm sure that orange County will get all of this worked out.

1/08 Chairman of Germany’s far-right party brutally beaten in “assassination attempt” – ZH
This "far right" wants Germany to be for Germans, NOT worthless rabble from north Africa.
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Old 01-09-2019, 04:57 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Debt as far as the eye can see,,, killed by ZIRP

As communication speeds up, changes in confidence speed up.
Michael Pento, " The bond bubble continues to build and become a dagger over the worldwide economy and markets.
The amount of publicly traded debt in the U.S. has soared to 58% of GDP. This is up from 29% in 2007 when the U.S. 10-year Note was yielding 5%. The Fed is now selling $50b of bonds each month, with an extra $7.8T in publicly traded debt that it doesn’t own; and that equates to nearly 2x the amount of debt compared to GDP than what existed just prior to the Great Recession."
"This debt must now be absorbed by the private market and at a fair market price, instead of just purchased mindlessly by the Fed…and yet yields are still falling. This means investors are piling into sovereign debt for safety ahead of the global economic crisis even though they understand that debt is, for the most part, insolvent."
At one time, They" claimed that the BLICS were buying the debt,,, even though Belgium didn't have any dollar reserves at all. Later, They claimed that American households were buying up all the treasury debt.

"Meanwhile, the nucleus of the next credit crisis (the leveraged loan and junk bond markets) implode; as corporations need to roll over more than $800 billion of debt at much higher interest rates this year."
"My Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model has 20 components. 19 out of 20 indicators are indicating we are about to enter into a recession. Only initial unemployment claims remain at a positive level."
"sovereign debt skyrockets at an even faster pace than the breakneck speed witnessed since the Great Recession. In this same vein, in the U.S. the federal budget deficit surged to a record for the month of November to reach a negative $204.9 billion" ,,,,, ?X 12?
"This massive increase of $70 trillion in debt since 2007, which adds up to $250 trillion globally, must now rely on the support of investors instead of the mindless and price insensitive purchases of central banks. "
Yeah, right.
"The total value of the market could drop by 25% and still be at a valuation level that is equal to 100% of GDP. And that assumes GDP doesn’t drop. But at 100% of GDP the market would still be, historically speaking, about twice as overvalued as it was from 1974-1990. Hence, I predict the worst of the stock market is still very much in front of us."

"And finally, 2019 will be marked by a conflagration in our government. The year will be marred by budget showdowns and shutdowns, debt ceiling brinksmanship and indictments from Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. Those hoping for cooperation between Democrats and Republicans on things such as a massive debt-funding infrastructure spending package to save the economy will be greatly disappointed"
"Household net worth (think real estate and equity portfolios) as a percent of GDP reached over 525% at the start of Q3 last year. According to Forbes, the average for that figure is 380% going back to 1951."

ZIRP is never done because it is so destructive. ZIRP allowed the banks to collect $400 billion a year in interest differential between what you pay and, their free money.
ZIRP allowed Obummer to really run up the debt. So, both the banks and the State benefited. BUT, it destroyed the pension funds, et al who depend on interest income. There will be no recovery for them.

"This is the year that mounting hammer blows to the Western alliance system and the edifice of global governance threaten to bring the old order tumbling down."
Trump is swinging the hammer.
"urasia says President Donald Trump should take a large share of the blame for the state the world finds itself in. CREDIT:AP"
"Pax Americana is unravelling. The transatlantic concord underpinning the West since the Fifties is dying. Nato, the G7, the G20, the WTO and the EU are all in varying degrees of crisis."
"transatlantic concord" was a euphemism for endless war to benefit our masters.
"Anti-liberal strongmen are tugging away at the edges in Turkey, Brazil and Hungary. Some in the twilight zones of the democratic world are drifting -towards the Putin-Xi camp."
Anti-liberal, my arse. Anti war and anti cultural destruction.
"The West is shutting out Chinese manufacturers of 5G high-speed equipment. Digital globalism is in retreat."
About that 5G, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qt5B39LB7c

"Donald Trump is - in Eurasia's view - the central catalyst and accelerant for much of what is going wrong in the world. It starts at home in Washington.

"Damage is being done to the legitimacy of democratic institutions in the world's largest economy," it said."
Legitimacy of mass murderers.
"Europe is in no fit state to step into the leadership vacuum as America turns its back on the liberal alliance system and nexus of shared values."
Our shared values are with the European people, NOT the European leaders.
"Yet the drift of events is clear. The Western liberal order we took for granted at the end of the Cold War is under existential threat."

Just tell the middle class that they are the upper, rich class. Then, you can justify increasing the snot out of their taxes.

"This is one of the issues I have pointed out in discussions in Washington and it has gone back to the Federal Reserve and is one of the reasons why the Fed has been raising rates. They MUST get them back to normal levels in interest rates or debt is really dead. Insurance and pension funds along with some banks have gone into the property markets and emerging market debt to compensate for the low interest rates.

I have been warning that the European and Japanese central banks have DESTROYED their bond markets. There is NO BID and capital has rushed off into other areas."
"The last Documentary film I did was on this very crisis of destroying the bonds markets. The central banks were buying the government debt BECAUSE nobody else would at such low levels! "
So, let all the sovereign bond markets crash. That will stop the welfare-warfare State model.

En Mexico, es dicho, "un trabajo sin oportunidad robar no es un buen trabajo."
"A job without opportunity to steal is not a good job."
The State run oil company in Mexico suffered $3billion in losses from theft of fuel. 80% of it was stolen by employees.

Here is a good article on Macron. He is on a mission to destroy France, https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1...e-in-free-fall
1/08 Sears plans to shutter after 126 years in business – CNBC
Destroyed by corporate raiders.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:20 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Public debt,,, more speedbumps

I'm back to playing the devil's advocate for the FED.
"Federal Reserve regulations are rules put in place by the Federal Reserve Board to regulate the practices of banking and lending institutions, usually in response to laws enacted by the legislature. "
"I: Issue and Cancellation of Capital Stock of Federal Reserve Banks"
They created liquidity for emergency loans that was subsequently destroyed,,, no monetary inflation.
"O: Loans to Executive Officers, Directors and Principal Shareholders of Member Banks"
That was their only mandate when formed.
"V: Loan Guarantees for Defense Production Facilitates the extension of credit for national defense production"

No bid,,, no problem. No limit on money for defense.
"in response to laws enacted by the legislature. "
It wasn't the FED that came up with the idea of buying war bonds and other government debt.

"Currently, MB is declining and m is countervailing to a slight degree, but the drop in the base and the increased Federal funds rate has resulted in sharp slowdown in M2 growth from a peak of 8% per annum to slightly less than 3.9% per annum now. Slower M2 growth resulted in a sharp slowdown in nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2018."
"Tangible signs of this include: a sharp slowdown in M2 growth in Japan, the Eurocurrency zone and China, a drop in world stock and commodity prices as well as synchronized deceleration in major foreign economies. Chinese money growth recently fell to the lowest in four decades, " they can thank Trump.
"One other point: Excess reserves have declined far more sharply than the monetary base, serving to severely restrict the US depository institutions. Excess reserves have dropped from a peak of $2.7 trillion to $1.6 trillion. Quantitative tightening cut excess reserves about approximately $400 billion while the first eight hikes in Federal funds rate reduced excess reserves about $700 billion."
People wonder why there is a liquidity crisis.
"M2 growth from a peak of 8% per annum" Gee, I wonder why we have so much price inflation.

"In the fourth quarter of 2017 the combined asset purchases of the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) were $100 billion per month. The total dropped to zero in late 2018 and this quarter will turn negative, to withdrawals of roughly $20 billion per month." Deflation that will work it's way down to every level.
Corporate debt has reached new highs. $800 billion needs to be rolled over at even higher rates.

From the World Bank;
“At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year "
It was running on free money, nothing else.
"Hard-won central bank independence and transparency could erode in the face of pressures to finance government. "
That horse left the barn many decades ago.

Consumer credit is humming along nicely.
"November, the surge consumer credit continued, rising by $22.1 billion, above the $17.5 billion expected, after October's whopping $25 billion increase as non-revolving credit surged by the most since December 2017. The surge in borrowing in November brought the total to $3.979 trillion"
"American consumers have clearly returned to doing what they do best - spending money they don't have - with revolving credit jumping by $4.8 billion, one month after it surged by $9.3 billion. The latest monthly increase brought the total credit card debt to a new all time high of $1.042 trillion."

"But the big reason behind the November surge in consumer credit was nonrevolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, which soared by $17.4 billion, the highest monthly total since 2017, and bringing the nonrevolving total to a new all time high of $2.937 trillion."
"$1.564 trillion in student loans outstanding, an impressive increase of $33 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.141 trillion, an increase of $16 billion in the quarter."
Fitch may downgrade Uncle Sam.

"The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is now 106%, the highest since the end of the Second World War. The Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio is a more reasonable 48%, but that figure is misleading because it does not include the debts and guarantees of provinces, state-owned enterprises, banks, wealth management products and numerous other entities that the government in Beijing is directly or indirectly obligated to support.

When that additional debt is taken into account, the real debt-to-GDP ratio is over 250%, about the same as Japan’s."
What about U.S. $3 trillion owed SS? What about $ 212 trillion in unfunded liabilities?
"Debt-to-GDP ratios below 60% are considered sustainable; ratios between 60% and 90% are considered unsustainable and need to be reversed; and ratios in excess of 90% are in the red zone and will produce negative growth along with default through nonpayment, inflation or other forms of debt repudiation. The world’s three largest economies — the U.S., China and Japan — are all now deep in the red zone."
"What is striking is the speed with which synchronized global growth has turned to synchronized slowing. Indications are that this slowing is far from over."
Powell broke ranks with the other CBs.
"Analysts estimate that reducing the balance sheet by $600 billion per year (the current tempo) is equivalent to increasing the fed funds target rate by 1% per year. This implied rate hike comes on top of the 0.25% rate hikes the Fed has been announcing every quarter. QT and actual rate hikes taken together are increasing rates by 2% per year from a 2.5% base, an extreme form of monetary tightening." DEFLATION

Armstrong says that stocks are going WAY up,,,, dunno.
"ANSWER: That was a minor signal at year end. It served to put us on notice that the slingshot to the upside will be extended. That is very good news for I was concerned that such a move would have peaked by 2020/2021. It appears we have been granted a huge reprieve in that regard and we will be looking at profound events unfolding ahead"
"REPLY: Unfortunately, this is exactly what the computer is forecasting. We are in a rising cycle of civil unrest. The political divide is growing everywhere even in the United States. This will ONLY lead to outright violence and in many cases civil war. The left is ALWAYS the most violent. They are not tolerant of opposition"
"In the USA, the rising tide against Trump is stunning. But people have no idea what is coming. I have warned that analysing Trump in terms of a market, he represents a reactionary bounce only – not a change in political trend. What I mean by that is we are headed to a clash of titans as you are there in Germany. NEITHER side will be willing to accept a loss. What comes after Trump will be massive civil unrest as well."

1/09 Germany heads for a technical recession – Wolf Street
1/09 China’s stability is at risk – National Interest
1/09 Gundlach says “get out” of junk bonds – Seeking Alpha
1/09 Ohio police and fire pension fund slashes retirees’ insurance – Fox

1/09 Weakest Treasuries demand since 2008 sends bond-market warning – Bloomberg
Wait, the public debt increased by $205 billion in November. Who is buying?
1/09 China car sales fall for the first time in 20 years – BBC
Yep, they have definitely had a turnaround.
1/09 ECB rate hike now unlikely before mid-2020, money markets bet – Reuters
Zombies don't do rate hikes.
1/09 France moves to ban all protests as PM announces major crackdown – ZH
Macron's popularity has fallen to 18% . It will go lower.

1/08 Hypersonic weapons pose “significant challenge to world peace” – Zero Hedge
Now that Russia and China have weapons that will reach the politicians,,, the politicians are getting nervous.

1/08 Global warming of oceans equivalent to an atomic bomb per second – Guardian
How Centuries-Old Seawater Is Cooling The Deep Pacific Ocean
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Old 01-10-2019, 04:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The revolution cycle

Germany is the POWERHOUSE of Europe. Germany is in recession.
If the strongest can't make it, what about the rest?
Yellow Vests Advocate Taking Money Out of Banks in France to Topple Macron

Here is an excellent article on China. They are TOAST.
Brazil, like many other States have been over run with violent gangs.
"To that end, Bolsonaro last week said over Twitter that he would issue a decree to ease gun laws, making it much easier for adults over 25 to obtain firearms, as long as they have no criminal record. Bolsonaro says that allowing "good" people to own guns will discourage criminals, as well as reduce Brazil's homicide rate after nearly 64,000 murders last year. "
Armstrong's model is showing a "slingshot" rise in equities. Everybody else is showing a huge fall. Armstrong's accuracy record is amazing. How could American equities rise so far?
One has to entertain the idea that; there will be so much revolution in the world that capital will flee to American markets to survive complete vaporization.
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Old 01-11-2019, 05:11 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Corporatocracy + the State + unfettered predators

The State has embedded itself so deeply into Society that we are led to believe that they are one and the same. Since the State is a non-producer, it must be a parasite on society. But, since the State is nominally our protector, we suffer the parasitism in silence. The State ,putatively attempts to organize society for the protection of society. But, just having this power leads the State to concentrate on protecting itself.

"aces the same quandary as billions of people who are subjugated by governments: they need protection from their protection rackets. The protector has dropped all pretence of protection and has become a predator.
When the Soviet Union conducted its first successful atomic bomb test on August 29, 1949, it undercut the protection-racket rationale for governments. No one realized it at the time, but how can you run a protection racket if you can’t protect those you’re purportedly protecting from annihilation?
when the Soviets detonated their first hydrogen bomb, it was clear that all either the Soviet or American government could offer its people was assured destruction of the other side, and most likely their own, in the event of an attack.

Of course neither governments’ rhetoric changed from the historical protection-racket justification. They said that escalating budgets for defense and intelligence, foreign intervention, and skullduggery were necessary to protect their people from the other side.
However, that fear has a rational basis, it can never be vanquished. Instead, it provides the political impetus and cover for governments to do what they do best: predation.

If such predation wasn’t immediately obvious to the general populace, it was to the predators. Commentators have noted that government attracts sociopaths and psychopaths. Is that just hyperbole? Government in the age of predatory theft is a gun trained on the subjugated. Why wouldn’t it attract predatory people? A desire to be on the business end of the gun qualifies that person for a diagnosis as a sociopath, at the least.
It’s been obscured by the predatory mechanisms of debt and central banking, designed to enrich elite predators while maintaining a mirage of prosperity. The global economy is in extremis, kept alive by a drip feed of ever-expanding debt whose source feed is government’s unbacked fiat debt and central bank monetization. Now, not even those shell games can keep the patient alive.
The writing is on the wall for governments’ predatory rackets: nonstop wars, bloated military and intelligence complexes, crony socialism, central banking, medical care, education, regulatory extortion, vote-buying via redistributive theft, unfunded pension and medical promises, and the rest of the criminal activity that has rendered the world insolvent.

"Instead, it’s their realization that notwithstanding the fake money and debt mirage, they are growing poorer, opportunities are shrinking, and eventually they’ll be destitute and then dead.
" What scares the hell out of not just the French establishment, but establishments around the world, is that Yellow Vest rage is directed at Government, not just France’s, but the European Union as well."
When you’re broke, you’ve got nothing to lose. If poverty or its prospect, and perceived injustice, prime insurrections, then we ain’t seen nothing yet. The global house-of-cards economy is collapsing in on itself.
Which is why the predatory class is obsessed with firearms control and prohibition. Torches and pitchforks are one thing, pistols, rifles, and more powerful armaments available on the black market, another. Predators prey on the weak and defenseless; they’re cowards. Fear that they could find themselves on the wrong end of the barrel motivates their ceaseless efforts against private possession of firearms―but not governments’.
"Alarmingly, it means that the sheep have identified their predators and abandoned their passivity. Governments, the most well-armed and dangerous institutions on the planet, moving against firearms are the wolves taking the sheep’s shovels and stakes."

The Predator State, " The title refers to how in US society, as Galbraith sees it, public institutions have been subverted to serve private profit: the "predators" being corporate elites. He argues that these corporate interests run the state "not for any ideological project—but simply in a way that would bring to them, individually and as a group, the most money.”[1]
For him, the Katrina disaster was a defining failure of the political system, since a political hostility to the public sector had inspired the degradation (or selling off) of publicly owned emergency services. Writing a preface for the paperback edition, which came out after the 2008 crash, Galbraith blamed the ongoing crisis on deregulation which, in the name of free markets, had left the financial predators to police themselves.[3]

Keep in mind that your social security money was taken to foment wars-for-profit all over the world

"This graph is a very typical display of the predator/prey relationship. It comes from a study on rabbits and coyotes, but the relationship is the same for all predator/prey tandems, from tiny parasites and their hosts to lions and antelopes. The predators always overfeed until the prey can no longer sustain them, then most of them die and the rest wait for the prey to replenish themselves."
"Humans are intelligent beings, so the predators must use mental strategies more than physical strategies. The effective rule of humans must focus on their minds more than their bodies; unsupported physical domination is too difficult and expensive. This is why legitimacy matters so much in human governance.

The interesting thing about our current situation is that the rulers of the West retain their overwhelming power, but their legitimacy rests on a number of fragile structures. When one or two of them fail, the others may go down with them. And if this happens, the current system of rulership will not be rebuilt as it is now. What comes next may be better or may be worse, but it will not be the same."
Rulership is an exercise in skimming. Think of your own interactions with your government – the primary exchange is that they take some of your production.

"Today, the signature of modern American capitalism is neither benign competition, nor class struggle, nor an inclusive middle-class utopia. Instead, predation has become the dominant feature—a system wherein the rich have come to feast on decaying systems built for the middle class. The predatory class is not the whole of the wealthy; it may be opposed by many others of similar wealth. But it is the defining feature, the leading force. And its agents are in full control of the government under which we live."
They include the misanthropes who led the campaign to abolish the estate tax; Charles Schwab, who suggested the dividend tax cut of 2003; the “Benedict Arnold” companies who move their taxable income offshore; and the financial institutions behind last year’s bankruptcy bill. Everywhere you look, public decisions yield gains to specific private entities.

For in a predatory regime, nothing is done for public reasons. Indeed, the men in charge do not recognize that “public purposes” exist. They have friends, and enemies, and as for the rest—we’re the prey. Hurricane Katrina illustrated this perfectly, as Halliburton scooped up contracts and Bush hamstrung Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic governor of Louisiana.
In a predatory economy, the rules imagined by the law and economics crowd don’t apply. There’s no market discipline. Predators compete not by following the rules but by breaking them. They take the business-school view of law: Rules are not designed to guide behavior but laid down to define the limits of unpunished conduct.
A predatory economy is criminogenic: It fosters and rewards criminal behavior.

But, as with Enron, Tyco, and WorldCom, at every major S&L control fraud was protected by clean audits from top accountants: You hire the top firm to get the clean opinion. Moral hazard theory shifts the blame for financial collapse to the incentives implicit in insurance, but Black shows that the large frauds were nearly all committed in institutions taken over for that purpose by criminal networks, often by big players like Charles Keating, Michael Milken, and Don Dixon. And there’s another thing about predatory institutions. They invariably fail in the end. They fail because they are meant to fail. Predators suck the life from the businesses they command, concealing the fact for as long as possible behind fraudulent accounting and hugely complex transactions; that’s the looter’s point.
That a government run by people rooted in this culture should also be predatory isn’t surprising—and the link between George H.W. Bush, who led the deregulation of the S&Ls, his son Neil, who ran a corrupt S&L, and Neil’s brother George, for whom Ken Lay sent thugs to Florida in 2000 on the Enron plane, could hardly be any closer.

But if the government is a predator, then it will fail: not merely politically, but in every substantial way. Government will not cope with global warming, or Hurricane Katrina, or Iraq—not because it is incompetent but because it is willfully indifferent to the problem of competence. The questions are, in what ways will the failure hit the population? And what mechanisms survive for calling the predators to account?

Armstrong, "Nobody cares about the people. This is just politics and in the process, this demonstrates that Congress cannot govern anymore. Once we cross January 2020, this will grow in undermining the confidence in the government that will ultimately be reflected in the willingness to buy government debt. This Mexican Standoff has a more far-reaching impact for equities and commodities post-2020 than most people contemplate."
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Old 01-12-2019, 04:42 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The predators greatly outnumber the prey

This is the graph for the predator / prey population relationship between coyotes and rabbits. The coyotes can't survive by eating grass.
What happens when the rabbits stop reproducing? You can see this in Japan and most of the rest of the developed world. Here is a graph of the U.S. population growth.
Dropping fast.
Here is a chart of real wages vs productivity. We have been increasingly more productive but, for the same money.
Wages flatlined in 1975.
Here is a chart of consumer price inflation. It really took off in 1975
OK, it's simple. The lower our wages, the fewer children we have. Our wages have been flat since 1975. This reduced the pass-through of our money to the banks. In 1999, congress passed the Graham-Leachy-Bliley act to give our money to the banks so that they could front-run everything we bought. It wasn't bad enough that our wages were stagnant. The banks used our money to create price inflation.

By 2008, we had run out of money to keep up with housing inflation. The banks love to inflate anything that is a store of value. The banks blew up when we defaulted. The State ponied up an initial $700 billion to replace the money that our lower wages did not pass through the banks. The State was continually creating "money" to make up for the money that we didn't earn and pass through. This money was added to our future tax burden. We still didn't have the money to carry the burden. More taxes were / are needed. The State just redifined who was rich to raise the tax burden.

Crony capitalism, the corporatocracy or neo-feudalism,,, call it what you want but, our wages have been stolen. The self appointed "elites" can buy politicians all day, every day. Politicians have to eat too. A billionaire politician is an exception.

Every time that the power-mongers destroy capitalism and democracy, the sheep look towards socialism.
ZH Nearly Half Of US Workers Earn Less Than $30,000
For young people, socialism is now more popular than capitalism
Over Half of Millennials Identify as Socialist
Forty-Four Percent of Millennials Prefer Socialism. Do They Know ...

So, the rich manipulate the economy to get even richer. There is a big problem though. "Rich" in their terms means having lots of tangibles and monetary instruments. I suppose that's enough for most of them. All those monetary instruments have no intrinsic value. They are ALL related to consumption. The factories will shut down when nobody can buy it's products. Since they took our wages (buying power), they are only kept solvent by economic activity financed by the State. The State is fast running out of funds and creditability. Nobody is buying State debt but, it is spending up to $6.5 billion a day.
The money that the bankers hold is stagnant. There is no demand for it in the lower loop.
Trump is trying to diminish demand in the upper loop.

The banks intend to continue to run the show but, I believe that they will lose control.
Nearly Half Of US Workers Earn Less Than $30,000
Half of all jobs will be obsolete in 15 years, warns China’s leading AI expert

1/11 600 environmental groups just backed Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal – Gizmodo
It's definitely desperation time if they think the new green deal will fly.
The public debt goes up astronomically trying to make up for the money lacking in the lower loop. This just moves the risk of crash further up the line. Beginning of 2020 is crunch time for FED GOV.
The corporatocracy brought it on themselves. They bought politicians because they could,,, and because it increased their profits. They destroyed collective bargaining because they could and, because it brought more profit to hand out as dividends.
State employees have unions but, NO,, the private sector can't allow them. 50% of the cost of an item is for upstream or downstream finance. There is plenty of room for higher wages in America if finance would just let go of our money supply.
Just like Japan, too many coyotes and too few rabbits.
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Old 01-12-2019, 04:48 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Tax raids

Repost, "Armstrong's model is showing a "slingshot" rise in equities. Everybody else is showing a huge fall. Armstrong's accuracy record is amazing. How could American equities rise so far?
One has to entertain the idea that; there will be so much revolution in the world that capital will flee to American markets to survive complete vaporization. "
It didn't take long.
China's Uber Wealthy Are Preparing For $24 Trillion Tax Raid

Armstrong, "ANSWER: There will be a cancellation of the €500. That is the rumor behind the curtain. I would convert them as soon as possible to small bills and/or US dollars. There remains a distinct possibility that we will see Europe try to cancel its currency and take up the IMF’ proposal to move toward a cryptocurrency. They are desperate for taxes and they will raise taxes even further. As far as cash is concerned, as we move into 2020, it is time to make changes.

Keep in mind that the United States has never cancelled its currency. That is a common occurrence outside of the USA. More than 40% of the physical paper dollars circulate outside the USA. It will be a political difficulty to cancel the dollar. It will take a major economic crisis. The USA will be the last to do such a thing."

Maybe, America equities will do a slingshot move if Europe and China get bad enough.
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Old 01-12-2019, 04:55 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Tax raids

Repost, "Armstrong's model is showing a "slingshot" rise in equities. Everybody else is showing a huge fall. Armstrong's accuracy record is amazing. How could American equities rise so far?
One has to entertain the idea that; there will be so much revolution in the world that capital will flee to American markets to survive complete vaporization. "
It didn't take long.
China's Uber Wealthy Are Preparing For $24 Trillion Tax Raid

Armstrong, "ANSWER: There will be a cancellation of the €500. That is the rumor behind the curtain. I would convert them as soon as possible to small bills and/or US dollars. There remains a distinct possibility that we will see Europe try to cancel its currency and take up the IMF’ proposal to move toward a cryptocurrency. They are desperate for taxes and they will raise taxes even further. As far as cash is concerned, as we move into 2020, it is time to make changes.

Keep in mind that the United States has never cancelled its currency. That is a common occurrence outside of the USA. More than 40% of the physical paper dollars circulate outside the USA. It will be a political difficulty to cancel the dollar. It will take a major economic crisis. The USA will be the last to do such a thing."

Maybe, America equities will do a slingshot move if Europe and China get bad enough.
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:17 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Reserve early for your seat at the banquet of consequences

I saw a crash coming in 2005. I started writing in early 2007. When "they" didn't let the banks fail in 2008 + , I knew that the eventual dissolution would be that much worse. While writing, I had to do a LOT of reading to filter out mountains of BS. EVERYBODY wants to rent out their money. To keep the rentals going when actual productivity was falling took ever-greater amounts "money". Reportedly, total global debt is $250 trillion,,, a fairly meaningless number. It recently became obvious that wild money printing aka,,, debt creation was a losing game. The CBs cut way back. The pundits now admit that there is no escaping a final crash,,,, as prophesied by Ludwig von Mises.
As we get that much closer, I need to do less and less reading and digging to follow the likely, true outcome. More and more writers are focused on things that I saw back in 2005+
So, what happens to all the money renters and their money?
Charles Hugh Smith has a good article about the banquet of consequences.
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences?

GNS Economics has a great report that lays out 3 possible scenarios.
While reading this report, you MUST keep in mind the lessons learned from reading,
According to Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies, societies become more complex as they try to solve problems.
When a society confronts a "problem," such as a shortage of energy, or difficulty in gaining access to it, it tends to create new layers of bureaucracy, infrastructure, or social class to address the challenge. Tainter, who first (ch. 1) identifies seventeen examples of rapid collapse of societies

As collapse becomes more obvious, the State gets more frenetic and crazy.
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Old 01-13-2019, 06:39 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Of course the State is wicked,,, China, Ukraine

Thomas Paine, "Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness"
What happens when government is the source of wickedness? The State works hard to convince us that the State and society are inseparable. Like any other entity, the State needs physical support. Out of sheer benevolence, the State took over the task of creating our money supply. This worked very well in the days of Benjamin Franklin, the father of paper money. But, regulatory capture has ensured that the State is looking out for the needs of the bankers, NOT the needs of society.
The State is both a parasite and a predator, AND the issuer of our money. It is no surprise that the State puts the State's interests ahead of ours. Since the State is a non-producer, it constantly battles against the use of any commodity money. The State justifies theft in the form of taxes by claiming that it spends the money for our benefit.

Here is a complex report that it easy to understand.
"this is the beginning of a structural adjustment after a decade of liquidity abundance and market manipulation,
A stuporous state of durable, un-volatile over-valuation, arrested activity, unconsciousness produced by the influence of artificial money flows.’
unstable equilibrium of the market state was indicated a year ago by the ‘early warning signals’ ('EWS') provided for by the application of Complexity Science to financial markets
In the past two months, the more traditional indicators of conventional market analysis have confirmed what complexity indicators ('EWS') had indicated all along:
Expectations to see market weakness fading should a major Central Bank decide to get back behind the wheel, through another round of liquidity would likely fail, this time around,
fter a long period of system degradation and over-extension due to self-amplifying positive feedback loops. A system in transition, after hitting capacity constraints in synchronicity,
We ran out of money and, stopped buying. The capacity constraints are ONLY in consumption, not production.

"he one historical analogue to fear is not so much 1987, where automated trading exacerbated a market downfall, but rather the Quant Quake in August 2007: at that time, renowned quant funds, including the famed Goldman Sachs QIS fund, lost 30% in short order, without any apparent reason.
Still, to date, nobody knows with certainty what the trigger was
Inflammable Market Structure. The list of catalysts starts with a non-catalyst. No trigger needed. The market structure itself remains top of the pile of concerns to us.
These self-reinforcing loops make for an inflammable market environment, which may implode on its own devices, under its own weight, at some tipping point in close proximity.
Buy more popcorn.
The article has great graphs and covers a huge amount of risk data.
Outlook 11012019

China has tried a lot of government and economic and social experiments. Mao was a spectacular failure.
Deng Xiaoping is the one who really worked to transform China into a market economy. Keeping in mind the continuous failures of socialism and communism, Deng tried to close off both systems. Xi is now slipping back into the communist mindset. While the belt & road initiative is a good idea, it was forced TOO FAST. Trump has set off serious problems in China.

As China is learning, the periphery falls first.
"Receiving a transitory liquidity boost courtesy of the faltering “Periphery,” speculative Bubbles at “Core” U.S. securities markets succumbed to blow-off excess. Crisis Dynamics finally engulfed a vulnerable “Core” during 2018’s tumultuous fourth quarter.
" In short, China’s historic Bubble is increasingly susceptible to a disorderly collapse.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China H-Financial Index dropped 18% in 2018, although China’s banks outperformed the 28% fall in Japan’s TOPIX Bank Index. I would tend to see Asian finance as especially vulnerable to the unfolding global Bubble collapse"
No mention of the fall in population. Falling population equals falling consumption and falling markets. The Belt & Road initiative was suppose to bring more Eastern consumers into the consumption fold to prop up markets that had suffered a loss after American consumers went broke. China is trying to metaphorically poach consumers in other regions. It isn't working out that way and China is shrinking economically.

"Fragile Asian finance has company. Italian banks sank 30% in 2018, slightly outperforming the 28% drop in European bank shares (STOXX 600).
"Bubbles are mechanism of wealth redistribution and destruction. This reality has been at the foundation of my ongoing deep worries for the consequences of history’s greatest global Bubble. We’ve witnessed the social angst, a deeply divided country and waning confidence in U.S. institutions following the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble. I fear that the Bubble over the past decade has greatly increased the likelihood of geopolitical tensions and conflict. "

There is a lot of info in the article but, it takes a lot of reading.

"Today, China’s CPI was reported to have fallen below 2% again in December 2018. This despite a relatively high (for recent times) rate of food inflation. In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food"
Here is a graph of Chinese price (in)stability, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=wbEmPVnz
The article is about the Eurodollar influences on China but, it makes a good point about price instability.
1/12 China using twitter history to arrest, interrogate dissidents – Zero Hedge

Ukraine, " And despite widespread public anger at the nation’s corruption problem, which has provoked two revolutions in a decade, no one appears able or willing to do anything about it."
"Hunger games: Ukrainians spend half of their income on food, highest in Europe "
Ukraine – a world-beating grain producer - Adama
Ukraine suffered great Famine in the Holdomar.
"The Holodomor was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine in 1932 and 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. It is also known as the Terror-Famine and Famine-Genocide in Ukraine, and sometimes referred to as the Great Famine or The Ukrainian Genocide of 1932–33"
Wiki, "This is a list of famines in China. Between 108 BC and 1911 AD, there were no fewer than 1828 recorded famines in China,"
China, Ukraine and many others can not allow the people to starve. No telling how this will work out.

1/12 Democrat voters are becoming more pro-war than Republicans – Intercept
NATURALLY, we need to have war to get the economy moving. NO WAY should we spend on domestic infrastructure. That would benefit everybody, NOT just the arms merchants
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Old 01-15-2019, 04:52 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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I spent 90 minutes on a post and, it just got eaten.
Bummer, I'll just do headlines.
Brooksley Born was head of the CFTC and warned that the derivatives were going to crash in 1999. She was silenced by Greenspan, et al;.
The risk is all piling up again, There was no moral, legal or financial hazard and the gamblers are at it again.
1/15 Collapse in global M1 signals worldwide recession has arrived – Zero Hedge

China is going down fast and, their investments in Europe and America have fallen 70%.
1/14 China trade data is nail in the coffin of global economy – Mish
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:10 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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The real economy no longer held in abeyance by money printing

The finance sector has long worked to NOT reflect what was happening in the real economy where production & consumption happen,,,, or don't.
"There are real economic processes underneath. The more fundamental the market, the closer it is actual economic transactions. These are influenced by the movement of real things, this real economy, not just the transposition of numbers on some detached Wall Street computer screens. Living in the financial services realm can make it seem like none of this is real."
"imports into China, a primary measure of downstream economic strength in the world economy, fell by more than 7% "
China’s export growth turned negative, too. In December, total exports were down 4.4%"
they were dragged down starting in the real global economy where it was already taking place.

I already mentioned that Bangladesh needed to create many millions of jobs.
" "The Indian Railway System Announced 63,000 Job Openings... 19 Million People Applied."
" The same economist notes that India has about 104 million "surplus" workers."
Pakistan needs 1.3 million additional jobs every year: UNDP - Daily ...
Pakistan Can Create 2 Million Jobs Yearly With 7-8% GDP Growth ...

NOT a good area to live in.
1/16 New numbers: global slowdown is far more advanced than we thought – ECB
1/16 Fed’s biggest hawk folds, says “may be a good time to pause rate hikes” – ZH
Reducing their balance sheet has almost as much effct as the rate hikes.
1/15 China signals more stimulus as economic slowdown deepens – Reuters
Ah yes!. All that productivity with an equal amount of consumption. At the same time, they can't allow unemployment to rise.
1/15 Global economy fears grow as China and eurozone slump – Guardian
For a very good reason.

China contagion WILL affect America.
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Old 01-17-2019, 04:26 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Taxes in France,,, struggling China,,,Fracking bust

The rich are hard to pin down and tax. The State prefers to tax the middle class. The French are taxed 46.2%. This tax falls heaviest on the poor and middle income. Macron ended the wealth tax.
The fuel tax was the final straw.

If you read Armstrong, you get a different story.
"Nonetheless, our sources there say that she will probably survive as the Conservatives who rejected her plan are not likely to vote for a no-confidence motion realizing that a Corbyn victory would more or less signal it is time to leave Britain on the next flight. Corbyn’s socialist policies would only put Britain in a heated competition in Europe with France as to who could go bankrupt first. Macron realizes that socialism has destroyed the French economy,"
Socialism of the masses is always contending with neo-feudalism of the "elites". The elites never caught on to the idea that; All the paper debt and stocks & bonds are worthless if there is no economy

Remember that Mother Nature bats last. The volcanoes in Germany blew up 13,000 years ago. Currently, the magma chambers are refilling with lava.
Merkel is trying to hold onto powewr no matter how much it costs the Germans.
Merkel Offering to Pay One-Year’s Living Expenses if Refugees Leave Europe

1/16 Immediate fossil fuel phaseout could arrest climate change – study – Guardian
Probably true.
That's not all that it would do, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdCozBOa5LE
1/16 Italian banks face 2019 funding crunch without ECB help – Reuters
5 Star and Salvini knew that all along. Let's see who blinks first. The Italians would prefer to default.
1/16 China unleashes tax cuts in bid to halt economic slowdown – Guardian
1/15 China signals more stimulus as economic slowdown deepens – Reuters
1/16 China central bank’s $83 billion injection heightens worries over economy – Reuters

It won't work They are losing market share and, there are 1 million fewer Chinese workers every year. They are trying to make up for falling consumption by printing more money.

1/16 President Trump can’t stop U.S. coal plants from retiring – Reuters
1/16 Solar power company strikes deal to power 10 million people – ESI

America has done whatever it could to block a pipeline that would allow Canada to sell their oil on the world market. We get it cheaper that way.
All they really have to do is to build the pipeline. They don't need to actually pump oil. We'll just have to pay more.

The original claim was that; frackers had over-estimated their oil productivity by 10%. Turns out, they over-estimated by 50%. Finance is running away after losing $250---$280 billion dollars. The default cascade will shut off carbon energy deliveries for a while.
"WSJ finally ran the numbers and discovered that shale wells are not producing nearly as much oil as the operators had claimed they were going to produce:
"The main conclusion of this analysis is that US shale producers have overstated their well output by 10% collectively. And as much as 50% for certain individual companies.

These numbers are easy to collect and analyse. While it’s a great thing to finally have the WSJ show up here, many years later than the independent analysts cited above, they still didn't get close to the actual truth.

In actuality, the shale plays are going to produce roughly half of what is currently claimed by shale operators. Instead of a -10% collective hit to production, we should be ready for something closer to -50%."
s poor as the economics are for the shale drillers, which have collectively spent some $260 billion more than they have taken in from their operations, things are even worse than commonly understood. As the public is on the hook for billions of dollars worth of road and bridge damage caused by fracking trucks.

In Texas, the road damage might be as much as twice the amount brought in by taxing the oil operation revenues.
Could Fracking Industry Debt Trigger a Financial Crisis?

Sep 21, 2018 - The U.S. fracking industry could implode when investors begin to demand “real returns”
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:29 AM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Chinese defaults taking center stage

The Wicked Witch of the West (no, not Hillary) was famous for saying,,, I'm melting !! Dorothy did her in.
Well, China is melting and Trump is the one who gave the tightrope a good whack. They were sort-of balanced,,, sort-of surviving. Not any more.
At one time, China was injecting more liquidity than the FED, BOE, BOJ and ECB all put together. Last week, they injected $1.1 trillion.
This reeks of desperation. The wealthy Chinese are fearing a $45 trillion tax haircut. Most Chinese corporations are not profitable.
1/17 China’s corporate default storm continues to rage – SCMP
The State supports them to maintain employment. This is going to get very ugly.
The Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs has crashed because China has cut way back on imports. Oz is going to get hit hard.

The Federal Reserve now claims that it caused all of the recessions.
In related news, the Wall Street banks made $ 100 billion,,, wonder if there is a connection?

Armstrong, "To eliminate cash, the ECB has a secret project to provide instantaneous transfers for each transaction. Therefore, the central bank was simply a state-owned bank whereas a clearing bank was one where all banks must clear transactions."

"Measures for sentiment among high school graduates and those 65 and older both fell to the lowest since July. The measure also fell across most income levels as well as for Democrats and independents; but confidence increased among Republicans, renters, and for workers earning more than $50,000."

1/17 China is turning into Its own worst economic enemy – Bloomberg
1/17 German carmakers warn hard Brexit would be ‘fatal’ – Reuter

1/17 Illinois governor dodges pension issue in inaugural speech – Chicago Business
1/17 Government debt bomb much higher than Americans realize – SRSrocco Report
Don't worry, they'll find out eventually.
1/17 Art Berman: exposing the false promise of shale oil – Peak Prosperity
Let's hope that Wall Street doesn't find out.
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:07 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Eventual debt blowout and, cancelling the currency

Great Britain is talking about postponement of brexit until the summer. Things will be MUCH clearer by summer.
El Chapo has used the israeli model of business.
The U.S. Navy wants to build LOTS of expensive targets.
1/18 War *****s scramble to say Syria attack means troops must remain – Medium

1/18 Burnout is making doctors want to kill themselves – NY Post
That's what you get when finance takes over medicine. Overworked doctors and treatment unaffordability. But, the profit margins are GREAT
1/16 Trump again threatens to leave NATO (that’s a good thing) – Mish.
I wish him all the luck in the world.
1/18 LA teachers strike: 73k is not enough – liberty nation – Liberty Nation
1/18 California’s housing crisis looms over problems with teachers – CNBC

1/18 Response to US global bullying: Iran, India ditch dollar – RT
Jim Willie said that America is going to get a new currency.
Martin Armstrong said that America has never cancelled it's currency. He points out that U.S. currency overseas could not be cancelled. If America can get foreigners to stop using dollars, it would make it easier to cancel them domestically.

Central banks have started to pump in a bit more liquidity to soften the crash,,, a controlled demolition.
1/18 Some NYC restaurants cutting staff hours as minimum wage hits $15 – CNS
Robby the robot continues to undercut wages.

FED GOV can spend $2 billion for the obamacare website but, it can't spend $5 billion for the wall. All the while ignoring that social security is unfunded by $50 trillion.
Congress has turned a blind eye to the big problems while fighting over the little ones.
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Old 01-20-2019, 05:52 PM
Danny B Danny B is offline
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Opting out of the techno society before AI destroys it

I've made a lot of notes and, this idea is going to take a lot of reading.

The Brynjolfsson report
And the jobs least likely to be shredded by AI/machine learning:

Massage therapists
Animal scientists
Public address system and other announcers
Plasterers and stucco masons
Uhh, What about the rest?

A new report predicts that by 2030, as many as 800 million jobs could be lost worldwide to automation.Nov 30, 2017

ARTIFICIALLY intelligent robots could trigger a “fourth industrial revolution” and displace more than half of the human workforce by 2025, a Swiss think-tank has warned.
“By 2025 more than half of all current workplace tasks will be reformed by machines as opposed to 29 percent today.”

Care work, entertainment, and other tasks requiring empathy, previously thought safe from automation, have also begun to be performed by robots.[7][8][9][10]
An AI with the abilities of a competent artificial intelligence researcher, would be able to modify its own source code and increase its own intelligence. If its self-reprogramming leads to its getting even better at being able to reprogram itself, the result could be a recursive intelligence explosion where it would rapidly leave human intelligence far behind.

Artificial Intelligence: Tool for the Future, or Man's Last Invention? - CyberNole.net

Artificial Intelligence: Tool for the Future, or Man's Last Invention?

Bering also examines the role of von Economo neurons (VENs), spindle-shaped cells that contribute to empathy, self-awareness, and other advanced social functions. One study by the neuropsychiatrist Martin Brüne found “significantly greater densities of VENs in the brains of the suicide victims compared to those in the control group.”

Moreover, during a chapter in which Bering explores the recent phenomenon of live-streaming one’s suicide, he doesn’t pause to wonder why Marcus Jannes, a college student who broadcasted his own hanging on a Swedish Web site called Flashback, chose to do so by lassoing computer-network cables around his neck and rigging them up to a doorframe. The symbolism seems wholly lost on him.

“Capitalist Realism”: “The pandemic of mental anguish that afflicts our time cannot be properly understood, or healed, if viewed as a private problem suffered by damaged individuals.”

Without the plotline of the Christian gospel, with its messianic view of history, the purpose of life and our place in the world became woefully uncertain.

Op-Ed in the Times, by the behavioral scientist Clay Routledge, which presented new data showing how the surge in suicides could be attributed to a “crisis of meaninglessness.”
we are nevertheless embracing an ideology that supplies a certain framework of meaning. Recognizing the spiritual function of these ideologies might help us understand their role in staving off suicide,
At one point, Bering notes that churchgoers—who place a high premium on communal fallibility—are four times less likely to commit suicide than their secular counterparts.
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