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Old Today, 04:04 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: L.A. Ca.
Posts: 4,191
The current downturn and, losing confidence

Since everybody buys on margin or credit, confidence in the future is all important. A small dip in the price of stocks is called an opportunity to "buy the dip". As the dips get larger, confidence weakens. At some point, everybody wants to "short" the market.
CNN, Here's how much money you could be losing by avoiding the stock market
NBC, The stock market lost more than $2 trillion in October - CNBC
The truth is, the net makes it impossible to hide financial fundamentals. Computers make almost instantaneous analysis.
Here is a short article with a few graphs that puts everything in perspective.
https://gainspainscapital.com/2018/12/10/10555/
Just one excerpt,
"So what is the crisis this time?
In the ’90s it was the bubble in Tech Stocks.
In the early ’00s it was the bubble in housing.
Today it’s the bubble in DEBT… specifically, sovereign bonds."
The banks blew bubbles to increase fees and interest charges. Every time that this blew up, they simply shifted the losses to the taxpayer. The State is the biggest borrower and, has to figure a way to inject money into the economy to keep it from collapsing.
Trump Reverses Yet Again - OKs $750 Billion Military Budget,
Days After Saying $716 Billion Was 'CRAZY' & Too Much! It's
Biggest Military Budget In History & We're $22 Trillion In Debt


Somebody pulled him aside and told him that the printing presses had to run in hyperdrive if he hoped to maintain some stability while Japan, Europe and China were collapsing.
Powell is hiking to attract foreign capital. BUT, he can't hike so high that debt service on sovereign bonds becomes too costly. He must find a balance point that drains capital from our competitors but, doesn't crash the sovereign debt market,,,, not yet, at least.

One of the eternal debates is; will this cause inflation or deflation. Due to woolly thinking, people group together price levels with money supply. Inflation is defined as an increase in the supply of money. This may or, may not cause price inflation. All of this debate is complicated because an increase in the money supply is an increase in debt.
In ancient times when gold and silver were the primary money, the circulating money supply was dependent on CONFIDENCE, not on supply. In times of low confidence, gold and silver went into hiding, NOT investment.

In the '70s, the State allowed / promoted the paper gold market..
[B]Paper Gold Trading Market Continues To Depress Price
Paper Gold Market 91% of Global GDP - Crush The Street[/B
The paper gold market was created so that the State could thwart any attempt to flee into gold when interest rates fell. The banks and the State want to keep all wealth circulating.
The End Of TINA -- Or 'There Is No Alternative' To Equity Buying - Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/.../the-end-o...-equity-buying...
Nov 27, 2018 - Investors have complained for years about “TINA” – or “There Is No Alternative” other than to buy more equities.


12/11 The next worry for US stocks: shrinking profit forecasts – Reuters
As profits shrink and political instability gets worse;
America's wealthy are moving to cash as market enthusiasm hits a wall
Here is the article from Armstrong
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/h...ion-deflation/
"Therefore, despite the increase in coinage output, there was DEFLATION as we have witnessed in Europe under the Quantitative Easing of the European Central Bank (ECB). The increase in money supply resulted only in hoarding rather than inflation. They still had faith in the purchasing power of money."

You can see from all this that hoarding reduces the circulating money supply. The obvious answer is to go to 100% digital currency and the blockchain. The State can impose negative interest rates on everybody.

"his seems to imply that the economy was contracting significantly thanks to the reign of Maximinus I (235-238AD) who simply declared all private wealth belonged to the state (him)"
"the reasons I sought to reconstruct the monetary system was to gain a look at what was really taking place within the Roman Empire because the common denominator is how people respond to events regardless of the century."
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