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Old 10-29-2018, 01:39 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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More predictions

There is a lot going on and, Powell is at the center of it.
Alan Greenspan, " I never said that the FED is independent"
Well, the politicians just couldn't help themselves. They frequently ordered the FED to take domestic actions that would look good in the runup to an election. Paul Volker claimed that he was shocked by this. Over the years. this action pumped up the markets by quite a bit.

"As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. "
OK, so just how much of this will unwind as Powell tightens the screws?

Here is another guy who made a lot of timely accurate predictions.
"To be fair, I initially proclaimed the Epocalypse would begin then. Though the downturn did not turn out as bad as I thought it would, the timing was precise to the day for each gyration in the market, and the January jolt did turn out to be the largest January point-decline in Dow history, so it was no little thing."
"As the Fed itself acknowledged, the Fed has been “front-running the market” (their term) with their “forward guidance” that promised huge hits of new money “in order to create a wealth effect.” (That, too, is something I stated about the Fed’s intention long before they admitted it"
"o, each time the Fed pulls one more major support out from under its fake recovery, the recovery takes another jog down. Now the Fed is slowly pulling out all remaining support (in fact, reversing all of it), so the market is going to go down, down, DOWN."

"Economic reality here is that we are still in the Great Recession and simply don’t know it because the belly of the Great Recession was propped up artificially by the Fed. As the last of the props are being removed, we’ll go back into the recession we created, and discover a depth far worse than our first plunge. "
"Stock market annihilation

The stock market’s inability to handle the present moves by the Fed and the expansion of government debt spending can particularly be seen in the ineffectiveness now of stock buybacks. I predicted last year that the repatriated money under the Trump Tax Plan would flood into buybacks far more than into capital investments. In complete proof of that, buybacks have now soared to levels even greater than seen in all the rest of the recovery period."
The guy does have a good track record of predictions.

The CBs are buying gold. Must be a good idea.
Student loans are the highest debt after mortgages,,, and they are blowing.
"Today, we live in a country where most workers do not earn enough to support a middle class family, "
"About 40% of the American middle class face poverty in retirement

1 in 3 Americans have hardly any retirement savings

Those over 65 have been filing for bankruptcy in droves

Health spending per capita in the U.S. increased nearly 29 fold in the past 40 years,"
"one of my contacts just emailed me with some deeply troubling information. He has a customer that is a Bank of America board member, and that board member told him that they expect things to really start falling apart by late March “at the latest”.

Globalization and rural America.
This vid starts out slow but, has very interesting info about our bankruptcy.
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Old 10-29-2018, 02:31 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Panic in Germany

3 articles on Germany.
"What our model is showing is the craziest period in American politics begins here in 2018. We have NOTHING but Directional Changes and Panic Cycles in politics from here into 2021."

"This is incredibly important because undermining the Euro is what our computer is warning about and that can drive the dollar to all-time record highs breaking the back of the entire world monetary system. Curiously enough, December has been shaping up as a major turning point on the Arrays. We may have just got the explanation why."

Investors were buying German Bunds (bonds) in the belief that; after a collapse, they would get Deutsche Marks. The German Political system is blowing up and, this will cause capital flight. Merkel will still try to hang on to power. this will cause more instability.
Powell will continue to raise rates. This will attract more capital. China is trying to block capital flight. At the same time that China is trying to internationalize the Yuan.
Net capital outflow from Russia reaches $21 billion in four months
China's Capital Outflows to Widen to US$37B in Q2 2018 |
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Old 10-30-2018, 04:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Stocks and Powell

10/29 Stocks plunge on new tariff threats – CNBC
10/29 FANGs free-fall into bear market as buy-the-dip fails – Zero Hedge

"buy the dip" only works when the money spigot at the FED is turned on.
10/29 French FinMin: Euro Zone unprepared to face a new crisis – Zero Hedge
European banks hold $ trillions in sovereign debt. It will never be paid back. This is a process, not an event.
"Jun 27, 2018 - Shares in Europe's largest banks have shed almost a fifth of their value"
"Bank Stocks Fall As Dollar Proves More Almighty Than God In Turkey"
"Bank Stocks Are On Their Longest Losing Streak Ever - Bloomberg june 26, 2018"
"Europe's banking problems are the elephant in the room | Financial ..."

Since all the banks are connected, the contagion will spread everywhere.
"Feb 14, 2018 - For European banks, it's a headache that just won't go away: the 944 billion euros ($1.17 trillion) of non-performing loans"

The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008: Analysis
The FED giveth and, the FED taketh away.
Evidently, the head of Gallup has been a bad boy.
So, Powell will destroy the economy. This will gave Trump a reason to get rid of the FED.
Since almost all wealth is debt-money, everything is held up by confidence. Confidence seems to be slipping away.
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Old 10-31-2018, 03:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Energy crash

Nothing earthshaking today.
Th Value Line Geometric Composite is a good indicator of stock market health. It currently shows how mega-tons of free money can drive everything up.
Dana Lyons' Tumblr — The Mother Of All Support Levels?

"in sum, without low-interest Federal Reserve policies the fracking boom might never have been possible. For the world as a whole, a steady decline in energy resource quality has been hidden by massive borrowing. Indeed, since the GFC, overall global debt has grown at over twice the rate of GDP growth. "
"Given the speed at which sweet spots were becoming crowded with wells, it appeared to us that the time window during which shale gas and tight oil could provide such high rates of fuel production would be relatively brief, and that an overall decline in US oil and gas production would likely resume with a vengeance in the decade starting in 2020. These conclusions flew in the face of official forecasts showing high rates of production through 2050. However, our confidence in our methodology was bolstered as individual shale gas and tight oil producing regions began, one by one, to tip over into decline."

10/30 Italian economy unexpectedly stalls in setback for populists – Bloomberg
There was nothing unexpected about it.
10/30 Treasury sees 2018 borrowing needs surging to $1.34 trillion – Bloomberg
This isn't going to end well.
10/30 “Algo-induced panics” leave traders screaming “I don’t care, just get me out” – ZH
The algos should be good for a lot of entertainment in the future.
10/30 China’s currency just hit its lowest level in a decade. What’s next? – CNN
Capital flight and market forces.

Kunstler is in fine form.
The Monster Mash - Kunstler

Jim Willie, "the imminent Second Plaza Accord to bring down the USDollar in coordinated manner (last gasp to avoid broad meltdown), the global USTreasury. the upcoming USTreasury debt restructure, and the climax harbinger signal of USGovt debt servicing costs currently exceeding the entire USGovt tax income (as in the big OOPS) for highly reliable debt failure signal"
First comes default, then comes restructuring.

"The fascist state has commandeered the monetary function and the financial sector. It has also turned the military function into a predatory machine. Despite their grip, Gold acts as the perfect antidote, administered from the Eastern hands. In fact, Gold will restore order and honesty within the global financial system. Many examples are given for the United States in its decayed state, being a champion of fascism in a grand obscenity of a sprawling fascist state.
The list of examples is only partial. The Axis of Fascism can be depicted as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel. The TPX triumvirate is in charge of the Global Financial RESET process. Herein we have Trump Putin and Xi to assure that the Gold Standard is installed without global war. The Gold Standard will be rolled out in a long organized tactical efficient schedule. The process has begun, and is not stoppable."
GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"
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Old 11-01-2018, 03:39 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fracking bust and the debt mountain

This is a repost of a previous article / link showing that almost every bit of the fracking business was created and financed by hot money in the junk-bond market.
Great Unwind of Oil-and-Gas Junk Bonds to Defund Fracking
This Federal Policy Enabled the Fracking Industry’s $280 Billion Loss

You get the idea. Investors are fleeing the fracking industry. Meanwhile, Pox Americana is trying to force Iranian oil off the market.
"Some predicted that $100 per barrel oil by the end of the year was imminent, while Tehran maintained a defiant tone, stating that neither Saudi Arabia nor OPEC would be able to pump enough oil to compensate for the loss of Iranian barrels, estimated between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd."

Iran has a work-around for it's oil.
It remains to be seen What will happen to oil markets when fracking crashes. Oil is priced in dollars per barrel but, gasoline is sold in price per gallon. If oil is $42 a Bbl, that translates to 1 dollar a gallon.
"For perspective, consider that in 2014 ExxonMobil earned about 4 cents for every gallon of gasoline and other petroleum products we refined, shipped, and sold in the United States."
"The owner of a typical car or truck with a 16-gallon gas tank will pay $41.12 to fill up, based on the current price of $2.57 for a gallon of regular gasoline. Of that, $7.82 will go to taxes, while around 64 cents will go to ExxonMobil’s bottom line "
People complain about the oil companies doing price gouging. A barrel of oil is sold as much as 47 times by speculators before it is consumed.

China is headed down rapidly,
America is headed down slowly,

"A dollar shortage seems implausible in a world where the Fed printed $4.4 trillion. But while the Fed was printing, the world borrowed over $70 trillion (on top of prior loans), so the dollar shortage is real. The math is inescapable."
"The defaults are beginning to pile up. Several large corporations and regional governments have defaulted recently.

China’s leaders have panicked at the slowdown and have started the credit flow again with lower interest rates, higher bank leverage and more debt-financed, government-directed infrastructure spending."
PANIC, what an original idea.
"the monetary union is looking more and more likely to collapse, urging Italy and others to pull out in an organized fashion to avoid the subsequent economic fallout.
Speaking to The Express on Wednesday, Donato said the “probability that sooner or later there will be an uncontrolled collapse of the eurozone "
"Brussels threatening to fine Italy up to €3.4 billion unless Rome presents a new draft budget compliant with its rules within three weeks.

However, Interior Minister and Deputy PM Matteo Salvini has vowed not to change “even a comma” in the budget,"
People will run to gold when it is too late.
Jacob Rothschild says the Trump is making big changes.

11/01 Italy’s debt costs rise further at auction – NASDAQ
11/01 Tech drove stocks skyward. It’s a different story on the way down – NYT
11/01 ‘Godfather’ of market analysis: ‘damage done to the market much worse’ – SHTFPlan
11/01 GE locked out of commercial paper market after Moody’s downgrade – Zero Hedge

"Notably, the combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP [growth] over the past year.

Yes, you read that right. In the last year, the world’s largest economies are generating debt 10X faster than economic growth. Adding debt at that pace, if it continues, will boost the debt-to-GDP ratio at an alarming rate."

6 good charts, https://www.bondvigilantes.com/blog/...ght-halloween/
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Old 11-01-2018, 02:53 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Total State control will destroy the economy

This post is more political than economic. BUT, policy out of the district of corruption controls most of economics.
"Things greatly accelerated post-9/11 – the mother of all false flags used as a pretext for virtually anything goes at home and abroad.

Police state laws, presidential executive orders, national security and homeland security presidential directives, congressional authorization for endless wars, global war OF terror, not on it,"
"Lawmakers capitalized on a window of hysteria to grant unchecked executive powers, signed into law by GW Bush 45 days after 9/11.

Things continued downhill from there, including establishment of the Homeland Security Department – the national Gestapo along with the FBI, CIA and NSA.

The Patriot Act created the crime of domestic terrorism for the first time. Henceforth, anti-war or global justice demonstrations, environmental or animal rights activism, justifiable civil disobedience, resisting growing tyranny, and dissent of any kind may be called “domestic terrorism.”

"Yet another ratcheting up of the calls for the government to clamp down on the citizenry by imposing more costly security measures without any real benefit, more militarized police, more surveillance,"
"When things start to fall apart or implode, ask yourself: who stands to benefit?

In most cases, it’s the government that stands to benefit by amassing greater powers at the citizenry’s expense.

Unfortunately, the government’s answer to civil unrest and societal violence, as always, will lead us further down the road we’ve travelled since 9/11 towards totalitarianism and away from freedom.

With alarming regularity, the nation is being subjected to a spate of violence that not only terrorizes the public but also destabilizes the country’s fragile ecosystem, and gives the government greater justifications to crack down, lock down, and institute even more authoritarian policies for the so-called sake of national security without many objections from the citizenry."

Armstrong, "Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history."
"People spend more when they believe that they have big profits in their home. The recession of 2007-2010 was so bad recording the worst of all declines since the Great Depression all BECAUSE it undermined the real estate values. People then spent less because they viewed their home declined in value. As taxes have been rising and the average home value collapsed, the velocity of money kept declining. "

"The velocity of money began to turn up finally in the USA ONLY when interest rates began to rise. The retired could suddenly begin to make something on the savings for once in a very long time. This is something the ECB still has not figured out in Europe as it has wiped out both the elderly savings along with pension funds."
"politicians have gone nuts imposing all sorts of regulations to outright making it a criminal act for a foreigner to buy property. What they are clueless about is this attack on the real estate market viewing foreign buyers as evil, is undermining real estate as a whole and that is what creates the worst economic decline in history. This undermines the banking system that has used real estate as collateral for mortgages and it undermines consumer spending because people save more when their property declines."
"The politicians are actually creating the worse possible scenario for the economy going forward. Welcome to the new face of stupidity."

Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history.

The politicians are actually creating the worse possible scenario for the economy going forward. Welcome to the new face of stupidity.
Now add government borrowing which competes against the private sector and it only gets even more stupid. Then we have brain-dead investors who actually think government debt is “quality” issued by idiots who have ZERO intentions of ever paying off their debt at any point in the future. Governments borrow year after year with no understanding what they are doing to the entire economy and how they are causing unemployment to rise with ever more taxes and more borrowing completing with the private sector on every level.

Then society elects people with absolutely ZERO business experience who in turn appoint academics who have wonderful theories that have never proven to have worked even once! And people wonder why I say they will never listen to prevent a crisis so we have no choice but wait for the Crash & Burn."

So, we have an ongoing lockdown from the police state enabled by advanced technology. We have ever-eroding freedoms. The State has ever-increasing debt. The machinery of State is operated by people who know nothing about operating machinery. Most of the employees are people who couldn't make it in the private sector. They all borrow endless sums of money to keep their jobs and pensions funded.
No wonder the birth rate is falling. The State plans to survive no matter how many people it has to crush.
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Old 11-02-2018, 03:32 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Plaza Accord, Jim Willie, Yuan, strong dollar

I write because I have some talent for making sense of the mountain range of economic BS that is presented as TRUTH to a public that can't take the time to wade through and learn for themselves. This article is under "Best of the Web" at Dollar Collapse.
The biggest of big pictures – GoldMoney
"That is the purpose of this article. It can be bewildering when a casual observer tries to follow global events, something made more difficult by editorial policies at news outlets, and the commentary from most analysts, who are, frankly, ill-informed. Accordingly, this article addresses the topic that dominates our future. "

This BIG PICTURE article ignores international capital flows, global mean wages, demographic crash, $247 trillion in debt overhang, the crash of shale oil, pole shift, the financial suicide of China, Eurozone meltdown, the pension crisis,,, and several other small problems.
I'll keep writing. I'm not the only one. Here is an excellent article to be read in it's entirety.

"(Bloomberg) – New York City faces future health costs for its retired workers of $103.2 billion, an increase of $40 billion over a decade. It has about $5 billion set aside to pay the bill.

The so-called “other post-employment benefits” liability was disclosed in New York’s comprehensive annual financial report released by the city comptroller’s office Wednesday. The city’s $98 billion unfunded liability for retiree health care exceeds the city’s $93 billion of bond debt and $48 billion pension-fund shortfall."
Notice how they project the cost of the program out for many years. Notice how they limit the funding picture to just what they have on hand NOW. They act as if there will be no future funding coming into the fund.

Jim Willie, " the imminent Second Plaza Accord to bring down the USDollar in coordinated manner (last gasp to avoid broad meltdown), the global USTreasury dumping initiative motivated by massive USGovt debts & deficits coupled with lower oil price from energy wars under a cloud of horrible USGovt fascist predatory image (also producer of toxic food), the upcoming USTreasury debt restructure, and the climax harbinger signal of USGovt debt servicing costs currently exceeding the entire USGovt tax income (as in the big OOPS) for highly reliable debt failure signal"

Jim refers to the Plaza Accord.
"The Plaza Accord or Plaza Agreement was an agreement between the governments of France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark by intervening in currency markets."
"....... manipulate exchange rates by depreciating the U.S. dollar relative to the Japanese yen and the German Deutsche mark."
"The Plaza Accord resulted in a 50 percent depreciation of the dollar relative to the yen and the deutschemark."
"In the U.S. today, just as in the early 1980s, fiscal spending is expanding while monetary policy is tightening. Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening as the yuan depreciates. Thus, structurally speaking, the current trade friction between the U.S. and China is quite similar to the U.S.-Japan trade friction of the 1980s.

All of this has led China to suspect that the Trump administration will soon press for some kind of currency adjustment akin to the 1980s Plaza Accord — Plaza Accord II, if you will."
"However, the Plaza Accord did prove effective in correcting the U.S. trade imbalance. By 1991, the U.S. had erased the deficit in its current account balance"

10/31 The number 7 could make China’s currency a trade-war weapon – New York Times
11/01 Chinese yuan tumbles to new cycle low amid signs of capital outflows – ZH
11/01 Trump says he and China’s Xi had ‘long and very good’ trade conversation – CNBC

The rising dollar is going to wipe out just about everything else. I doubt that any kind of "plaza accord" can change this.

the insanely broad major central bank financial market support (extended to stocks, corporate bonds, and crude oil), like the Emerging Market debt bust, with over $9 trillion on the line. But the focus here is on the Big US Bank Stock Index (BKX) breakdown, confirmed by the comedown in the crude oil price. The entire Wall Street banks are highly vulnerable to the oil price due to shale sector exposure. It signals the death of one or two major US banks. It signals the acceleration of the Systemic Lehman Event. The historical event will feature a global financial crisis an order of magnitude larger in scope than in 2008. It will feature sovereign bond defaults and entire national banking system collapses. THE GLOBAL POSTER BOY SUBPRIME BOND IS THE USTREASURY BOND. The safe haven this time around will not be bonds, but rather Gold.

Bank Index Signals Bank Failures

Armstrong has a special report on the coming bond contagion.

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
When will the strong dollar weaken? Ultimately, the answer is whenever the Treasury wants.
"Both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have publicly expressed dismay at the dollar’s persistent strength in the second half of 2018. A strong dollar has adverse effects relative to Trump’s economic plans.

"It makes imports less expensive, which has a deflationary impact on the U.S. domestic economy. This is at a time when both the Fed and the White House would like to see more inflation."
Trump and Mnuchin will soon weaken the dollar to boost growth.
The biggest offender in the currency wars today is China, which has devalued the yuan 10% in the past six months"

China prints Yuan because it does NOT want to fall off the back of the credit tiger. It is market forces that cause capital flight and a devaluation.
Most of the article in BS from people who think that the State controls the exchange rates.
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Old 11-03-2018, 04:05 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Paying for what's important,,, end the FED

" US needs ‘offensive weapons in space’ for self-defense, Mattis claims
Dominance in space is vital for the American way of life "
"The Pentagon is looking at a two-pronged strategy in space, Mattis told an audience at the US Institute of Peace"
“We are going to have to be prepared to use offensive weapons in space should someone decide to militarize it and go on the offensive,”
Moving on.
"Bolton claimed that the national debt is a big problem and tackling it requires significant cuts to the government’s discretionary spending, while most other economic experts say entitlement spending is the biggest concern."
"Many budget experts say entitlement spending presents a larger long-term threat to the U.S. economy because of both its magnitude and increasing demand from an aging population."
"He also said he expects the United States’ defense spending “to flatten out”
"But right now, you can have significant impact on both the deficit and the national debt by cutting government spending on the discretionary programs.”
ABSOLUTELY ! We can NEVER entertain the idea of cutting military spending.

Dartmouth Prof.: "If We Don't Abolish Capitalism, Capitalism Will Abolish Us"
"We must recognize that the climate crisis and the resurgence of the far right are two of the most acute symptoms of our failure to abolish capitalism," "campus Reform contacted Bray, asking him what his preferred alternative to capitalism would be among other questions, but the professor did not comment in time for press."

"Italy’s economy, Europe’s third largest, has shrunk. In Q2 2018, the latest Eurostat figures for Italy alone, Italian GDP was still 5% below the peak in Q1 2008."
"By all means, end QE. To do it close to or perhaps in full-blown recession would be perfectly fitting for the whole regime. The reasons and justifications won’t matter. That’s because it didn’t, and doesn’t, matter. QE or no QE, the global economy isn’t moved by Central Banks. They are, and have been, irrelevant. That much should be painfully obvious by now."
I do not know where people get stupid ideas like this. The upper loop of the economy IS moved by the Central Banks. The CB bailed out the private banks. The private banks bought State debt. The CBs rescued the banks and the bond market. They did NOT bail out the productive loop of the economy. The private banks bought public debt BUT, as things turn bad, ONLY Super Mario Draghi is buying State debt from weak States.

So, what happens when you just bail out the upper loop?
Remember that Germany has a 1 trillion Euro account surplus.
Almost 1 in 5 Germans is ‘at risk of poverty’ despite record employment – study
DO NOT WORRY, the military-industrial complex is hard at work.

Ellen Brown, "If the president really wants the Fed to back off on interest rates, it has been argued, he should do it with a nod and a nudge, not a frontal attack on the Fed’s sanity."
"True, but perhaps the president’s goal is not to subtly affect Fed behavior so much as to make it patently obvious who is to blame when the next Great Recession hits."
"According to Elga Bartsch, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley, one more financial cataclysm could be all that it takes for central bank independence to end."
“Having been overburdened for a long time, many central banks might just be one more economic downturn or financial crisis away from a full-on political backlash,” she wrote in a note to clients in 2017. “Such a political backlash could call into question one of the long-standing tenets of modern monetary policy making—central bank independence.”

And that may be the president’s endgame. When higher rates trigger another recession, Trump can point an accusing finger at the central bank, absolving his own policies of liability "
"Trump has not overtly joined the End the Fed campaign, but he has had the ear of several advocates of that approach. One is John Allison, whom the president evidently considered for both Fed chairman and Treasury secretary. Allison has proposed ending the Fed altogether "
"The Fed’s justification for raising interest rates despite admittedly low inflation is that we are nearing “full employment,” which will drive up prices because labor costs will go up. But wages have not gone up. Why? Because in a globalized world, the availability of cheap labor abroad keeps American wages low, even if most people are working (which is questionable today, despite official statistics)."
Ah yes, the global mean wage.

11/02 U.S. trade gap widens; deficit with China rises to record high – Reuters
How could that be? The tariffs were supposed to do the opposite?
11/02 Euro’s bid to challenge King Dollar collides with political risk – GATA
In a word, socialism.
11/02 Only 28% of Americans Are “financially healthy” during the largest wealth bubble – RIA
They are closely connected to the free-money spigot.
"Some 44% of people said their expenses exceeded their income in the past year and they used credit to make ends meet. Another 42% said they have no retirement savings at all. "
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Old 11-05-2018, 03:41 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Powell and, collateral damage

I wouldn't have to write as much if I could find writers who write just what I what to say. I found a great article that explains what the FED is doing and, might do. Keep in mind that we have an economy for the bankers and by the bankers. The upper loop is all jacked up on monetary Viagra/cocaine. They want to keep it going.
$8 TRILLION. Poof. Gone. The largest drop since 2008.
Remember this number represents DEFLATION of nominal wealth.

"The paragraph above captures everything that has happened, is happening, and will happen during this Fourth Turning. It was written over two decades ago, but no one can deny its accuracy regarding our present situation. The spark was a financial crash. The response to the financial crash by the financial and governmental entities, along with their Deep State co-conspirators who created the financial collapse due to their greed and malfeasance, led to the incomprehensible election of Donald Trump, as the deplorables in flyover country evoked revenge upon the corrupt establishment."
"The chain reaction of unyielding responses by the left and the right accelerates at a breakneck pace, with absolutely no possibility of compromise. A new emergency or winner take all battle seems to be occurring on a weekly basis, with the mid-term elections as the likely trigger for the next phase of this Fourth Turning."

"If Democrats take control of the House, their agenda will be to impeach Trump, pass legislation designed to make Trump look bad, block everything Trump tries to do, and position themselves to win back the presidency in 2020. The frustration of gridlock will lead to Trump utilizing Executive Orders as his means to accomplish his agenda. Not being able to accomplish his domestic goals will lead a bored Trump into foreign escapades, which could potentially lead to unanticipated military conflict. All previous Fourth Turnings have ended in all out war, with death on a grand scale."

Hedge Funds don't actually produce anything. They just shuffle money around trying to profit by anticipating and/or causing price inflation in some sector that they grab hold of. There is not much chance of causing inflation in a falling economy with a falling population. They live and die on free FED money. The FED has already shrunk the money supply by $ 312 billion. The fallout wiped out $8 trillion and, counting. Volatility is ripping up the funds.

Shape of things to come;
11/05 Bond traders prepare for week full of risk by dumping Treasuries – Bloomberg
11/05 Asia stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks plunge on trade worries – CNBC
11/05 Morgan Stanley: “The pain was greater than many investors imagined” – Zero Hedge
11/04 World economy risks returning to sync, this time to the downside – Bloomberg

The FED jacked it up and now, the FED is jacking it down.

11/04 Where the heck are share buybacks in this rotten market? – Wolf Street
11/04 The next big market risk: Here comes a sharp slowdown in stock buybacks – ZH

Companies did buybacks to make their earnings look better. Now, they have over $6 trillion in debt that they have to finance,,,,, at rising interest rates.
11/04 Why Brexit is just a sideshow for an EU beset by problems on all sides – Guardian
Italy is going to blow up the whole show.
11/05 American politics is now just civil war by other means – Strategic Culture
Armstrong suggests that things will turn violent after the Dems lose the upcoming election.
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Old 11-06-2018, 04:08 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The fall of export driven economies,,, retirement

Jefferson "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.

"Major-General Qiao Liang, the People’s Liberation Army strategist, in a speech to the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee (CCPCC) in April 2015 identified a cycle of dollar weakness against other currencies followed by strength, which first inflated debt in foreign countries and then bankrupted them. That then allowed US business interests to acquire assets at rock-bottom prices.
Qiao argued it was a deliberate American policy and would be used against China."
"A strong dollar is being driven by rising interest rates, “harvesting” Turkey, South Africa, and all the other states hooked on cheap dollars. It is also undermining the yuan exchange rate, threatening to harvest China as well."
"In Qiao’s words, “The most important thing in the 20th century was not World War 1, World War 2, or the disintegration of the USSR, but rather the August 15, 1971 disconnection between the US dollar and gold.”
"The Chinese always knew that relying on exports was only a stepping-stone to her own self-sufficiency."

China clearly sees the writing on the wall,,,, soon.

"The prevalence of zombie firms has skyrocketed since the late 1980s, according to BIS. In its research across 14 advanced economies, the bank found that the share of zombie firms had surged, on average, from around 2 percent to 12 percent in 2016."
"Research by Deutsche Bank has attributed the persistence of the walking-dead firms to a decade of super-low interest rates. “Bottom-up data of some 3,000 companies in the FTSE All World index show that the percentage of zombie firms has more than tripled to 2.0 percent of firms in 2016 from 0.6 percent in 1996,” the bank said."
They're just trying to keep employment up.

China has an export-driven economy that is crashing because their customers ran out of money. What about Germany,,, another export driven economy.
The greatest risk to Germany is the collapse of the Euro means that the single currency relieved their manufacturers of having to manage currency risk. Suddenly, the currency risk returns, the export model fails, and the lack of a domestic consumer market means that the economic conditions in Germany decline rapidly because of their dependence upon everyone else doing well."

Here is a good article on Goldman Sachs finally getting dragged into court.

"Real wages (i.e., nominal $ earned divided by the inflation rate) for the average American worker have hardly budged since the mid-1960s:"
"Yet the cost of living has changed dramatically over the same time period. Note how the rate of increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) started accelerating in the late '60s and never looked back:"
"The median retirement account balance among all working US adults is $0. This is true even for the cohort closest to retirement age, those 55-64 years old.
The average (i.e., mean) near-retirement individual has less than 8% of one year's income saved in a retirement account"
“Increasingly, we’re seeing folks who are becoming poor for the first time in old age.”
"As a jumping off point, use the Multiply By 25 Rule. Many financial planners use this as a general rule of thumb: to be able to afford to retire, you should have at least 25x your desired annual income saved up before you hang it up at the office."

$100,000 a year = the median cost of a private room in a nursing home

$85,000 a year = if you don’t mind sharing a room.

$50,000 a year = if you can manage with just daily help from a home health aide. $50,000 pays for one shift a day; the rest of the time you’re on your own
“Suicide is my retirement plan,” Scott, a 60-year-old adjunct professor, said in an interview with Vitae. "
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:13 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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CBs as an instrument of war,,, regulatory capture

Hundreds of years ago, a king would have to borrow money from private bankers if he wanted to go to war. No longer.
"Central banks were first established in the 17th century, with the primary purpose of providing war finance to governments" G-30 report. Repost
With a Central Bank, the State could just sell war bonds and, the taxpayer was forced to pay for the war. The war was never for his benefit but, the State and bankers didn't care.

"The Bank War was the name given to the campaign begun by President Andrew Jackson in 1833 to destroy the Second Bank of the United States, after his reelection convinced him that his opposition to the bank had won national support. The Second Bank had been established in 1816, as a successor to the First Bank of the United States, whose charter had been permitted to expire in 1811."
Curiously, the London bankers got a war started here in 1812.

"In 1832, Jackson had vetoed a bill calling for an early renewal of the Second Bank’s charter, but renewal was still possible when the charter expired in 1836; to prevent that from happening, he set out to reduce the bank’s economic power. Acting against the advice of congressional committees and over the opposition of several cabinet members, and after replacing two resistant secretaries of the treasury with a more amenable appointee (Roger Taney), Jackson announced that, effective October 1, 1833, federal funds would no longer be deposited in the Bank of the United States." " The federal deposits were not returned to the Second Bank, and its charter expired in 1836. President Jackson had won the Bank War."
He had a lot of people against him.

"Proposed by Alexander Hamilton, the Bank of the United States was established in 1791 to serve as a repository for federal funds and as the government’s fiscal agent."
"The Second Bank was formed five years later, bringing renewed controversy despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s support of its power. President Andrew Jackson removed all federal funds from the bank after his reelection in 1832,"
"The Bank of the United States was established in 1791 to serve as a repository for federal funds and as the government’s fiscal agent"
"Others were troubled by the fact that two-thirds of the bank stock was held by British interests."
"succeeded in preventing renewal of the charter in 1811, and the First Bank went out of operation."
"Soon, however, problems associated with the financing of the War of 1812 led to a revival of interest in a central bank, and in 1816, the Second Bank of the United States was established"
"in McCulloch v. Maryland (1819), the Supreme Court held that the Constitution had granted Congress the implied power to create a central bank and that the states could not legitimately constrain that power."
Big surprise.

"Starting in 1833, Jackson removed all federal funds from the Bank. When its charter expired in 1836, the Second Bank ended its operations as a national institution."
So, without all that federal money, it couldn't survive.

After the LIBOR scandal,,,, "Brandt drafted a resolution that barred the municipality from working with any firm that had either committed a felony or had recently paid more than $150 million in fines. He presented the homespun and eminently reasonable legislation to city officials and urged them to adopt it.

“The city councilors said they couldn’t do it,” Brandt says. “If they did, they wouldn’t have a bank left to work with. They said there wouldn’t be any bank big enough to take the city’s deposits.” Oakland, it seemed, was hopelessly dependent on ethically dubious and occasionally criminal financial titans. "
"A recent report by the University of California Berkeley’s Haas Institute estimates that cities and other public entities pay upward of $4 billion a year in such fees, an enormous sum that serves only to fatten the purses of multinational banks, legal firms, and others involved in the bond-issuance business. A public bank could help reduce these costs and free up funds by enabling a city to deposit its money in a public entity instead of a profit-centric institution like Wells Fargo or JPMorgan Chase. "

"Here, once again, the Bank of North Dakota offers a model. While overseen by a commission of elected officials, including the state’s governor and attorney general, BND is managed on a day-to-day basis by an independent and highly transparent executive committee of professional financial managers. Its operations are also subject to regular inspection by independent auditors. "

"More than 84 percent of the sub-prime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending. These private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year. Out of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006, only one was subject to the usual mortgage laws and regulations. The nonbank underwriters made more than 12 million subprime mortgages with a value of nearly $2 trillion. The lenders who made these were exempt from federal regulations."
"The $200 billion was a mere drop in the ocean of derivatives which in 2007 amounted to three times the size of the entire global economy."

"Derivatives had become a uniquely unregulated financial instrument. They are exempt from all oversight, counter-party disclosure, exchange listing requirements, state insurance supervision and, most important, reserve requirements. This allowed AIG to write $3 trillion in derivatives while reserving precisely zero dollars against future claims."

"The SEC loosened capital requirements: In 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission changed the leverage rules for just five Wall Street banks. This exemption replaced the 1977 net capitalization rule’s 12-to-1 leverage limit. This allowed unlimited leverage for Goldman Sachs [GS], Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch (now part of Bank of America [BAC]), Lehman Brothers (now defunct) and Bear Stearns (now part of JPMorganChase--[JPM]). These banks ramped leverage to 20-, 30-, even 40-to-1. Extreme leverage left little room for error. By 2008, only two of the five banks had survived, and those two did so with the help of the bailout."

"The federal government overrode anti-predatory state laws. In 2004, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency federally preempted state laws regulating mortgage credit and national banks, including anti-predatory lending laws on their books "
"The bonuses are extraordinarily large and they continue--$135 billion in 2010 for the 25 largest institutions and that is after the meltdown."
"It’s not as though Congress woke up one morning and thought to itself, “Let’s abolish the Glass-Steagall Act!” Or the SEC spontaneously happened to have the bright idea of relaxing capital requirements on the investment banks. Or the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency of its own accord abruptly had the idea of preempting state laws protecting borrowers. These agencies of government were being strenuously lobbied to do the very things that would benefit the financial sector and their managers and traders. "

Why didn’t anyone say anything?
"The book is Masters of Nothing: How the Crash Will Happen Again Unless We Understand Human Nature by Matthew Hancock and Nadhim Zahawi (published in 2011 in the UK by Biteback Publishing and available on pre-order in the US).

In 2004, the book explains, the deputy governor of the Bank of England (the UK central bank), Sir Andrew Large, gave a powerful and eloquent warning about the coming crash at the London School of Economics. The speech was published on the bank’s website but it received no notice. There were no seminars called. No research was commissioned. No newspaper referred to the speech. Sir Andrew continued to make similar speeches and argue for another two years that the system was unsustainable. His speeches infuriated the then Chancellor, Gordon Brown, because they warned of the dangers of excessive borrowing.

"In 2005, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Raghuram Rajan, made a speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming in front of the world’s most important bankers and financiers, including Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers. He argued that technical change, institutional moves and deregulation had made the financial system unstable. Incentives to make short-term profits were encouraging the taking of risks, which if they materialized would have catastrophic consequences. The speech did not go down well. Among the first to speak was Larry Summers who said the speech was “largely misguided”.

In 2006, Nouriel Roubini issued a similar warning at an IMF gathering of financiers in New York. The audience reaction? Dismissive. Roubini was “non-rigorous” in his arguments. The central bankers “knew what they were doing.”
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:37 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Continued,,, Goodson

Benjamin Franklin, "“There was abundance in the Colonies, and peace was reigning on every border. It was difficult, and even impossible, to find a happier and more prosperous nation on all the surface of the globe. Comfort was prevailing in every home. The people, in general, kept the highest moral standards, and education was widely spread.” - Benjamin Franklin

No doubt, many of the colonies were doing very well, especially Pennsylvania and Massachusetts where the amount of new paper money was controlled."
"He then points out that Pennsylvania’s paper money will be backed by land; that is, it will be issued by the legislature through a loan office,"
He escaped the banker control of the issuance of paper money
"He was asked why the working class in the colonies were so prosperous.

“That is simple. In the Colonies, we issue our own paper money. It is called ‘Colonial Scrip.’ We issue it in proper proportion to make the goods and pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In this manner, creating ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power and we have no interest to pay to no one.” - Benjamin Franklin"
"Soon afterward, the English bankers demanded that the King and Parliament pass a law that prohibited the colonies from using their scrip money."
“The Colonies would gladly have borne the little tax on tea and other matters had it not been the poverty caused by the bad influence of the English bankers on the Parliament,"
"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling the money and its issuance. - James Madison

“Banks have done more injury to the religion, morality, tranquility, prosperity, and even wealth of the nation than they can have done or ever will do good.” - John Adams"

Stephen Mitford Goodson was a director of the South African Reserve Bank. Goodson authored a book titled Bonaparte & Hitler Versus the International Bankers where he maintained World War II was provoked by the economic success of Germany, and he has also criticized the political actions of Jewish bankers"
"In June 2017, Goodson was connected to the Public Protector's Report of 19 June 2017 regarding the proposal to reform the South African Reserve Bank, so that it serves the people rather than the interests of the commercial banks.
"Stephen Mitford Goodson (died 4 August 2018) was a South African banker, author and politician who was the leader of South Africa's Abolition of Income Tax and Usury Party."

In response to an article written about Goodson in the South African Jewish Report, which was published on 30 June 2017, Goodson explained that his disbelief of the Holocaust is predicated on the claim that in the 8,263 pages of World War II memoirs written by Winston Churchill, Charles de Gaulle, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Harry S. Truman, there is no mention of millions of Jews in Europe having been annihilated. "

"Looking only at US listed companies, about 16% qualify as zombies. "
"That’s a low bar… yet 12% of the public companies they examined couldn’t pass it."
"The $1.271 trillion increase in federal debt was nearly $500 billion or 39% higher than the official annual deficit of only $779 billion, which means that politicians are keeping significant amounts of debt off-balance sheet. I don’t know who they think they’re fooling, but they aren’t going to be able to keep this con game running much longer. Over the past five years, the official deficit was reported as $2.977 trillion whereas the federal deficit grew by $4.777 trillion, meaning that 38% of the actual shortfall was hidden "
" the US government deficit will be (drumroll, please) approximately $1.4 trillion per year for the next five years, which will mean $29 trillion total debt by 2024."
Armstrong said that it will collapse before then.
Economic Brake Lights | Mauldin Economics

11/06 Eurozone ministers line up behind EU in Italy budget dispute – Guardian
11/06 The Italian people must understand that their country is at war – Gefira
11/05 Italy’s bonds drop as leaders defiant before Eurogroup meeting – Bloomberg

Share buy-backs greatly boosted reported earnings,, per share.
11/06 Corporate profits peaking and that’s bad news for the stock market – CNBC
11/06 Corporations flood midterms with money even while running up $1.7 trillion in debt – ML
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:31 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Stock market,,, FED poison,,, war waste

That was quite some election,,, Huh!
"Capital must protect itself in every possible way, both by combination and legislation. Debts must be collected, mortgages foreclosed as rapidly as possible. When, through process of law, the common people lose their homes, they will become more docile and more easily governed through the strong arm of the government applied by a central power of wealth under leading financiers. These truths are well known among our principal men, who are now engaged in forming an imperialism to govern the world. By dividing the voters through the political party system, we can get them to expend their energies in fighting for questions of no importance. It is thus, by discrete action, we can secure for ourselves that which has been so well planned and so successfully accomplished." -- Montagu Norman, Governor of The Bank Of England, addressing the United States Bankers' Association, New York, 1924."

Not surprisingly, the State lies about price inflation. They keep moving the goalposts to show price inflation to be lower than the true picture. Here is a graph from Shadowstats showing true inflation.
Alternate Inflation Charts
When it comes to true purchasing power, everybody is losing ground.

How does that affect the stock market?
"What happens if you have record buybacks, record dividends, and record earnings but 89% of assets yield a negative return in US dollar terms?"
"According to $DB: “A whopping 89 percent of assets have handed investors losses in U.S. dollar terms, more than any previous year going back more than a century”.
I suspect that the graphs are structured to reflect the State version of inflation, NOT the true version.

1971, "everybody had US Dollars, and so the US Dollar was just selected as the international currency. This has been to great benefit of the United States. Every time we create a new dollar and cause inflation, it doesn'tt just dilute the dollars within the United States since more than half of the dollars reside outside the United States. So, when we cause inflation of the currency supply that's outside the United States, it steals purchasing power from other countries and transfers that purchasing power to the United States."

"One of things that I discovered when I was updating my book was the relatively recent financialization of government. I was looking at a chart of the tax revenues for the Federal Government. I went "Oh my God, this looks like a chart of the stock market." I overlaid tax revenues with the Wilshire 5000 total market cap index and loo and behold, they had no correlation before the year 2000, but since the year 2000, when the stock market goes down, so do tax revenues. When the stock market goes up, so do tax revenues. So, the government now is highly dependent on the stock markets doing well. In the stock market crash in 2000, tax revenues fell 18%. In the global financial crisis of 2008, tax revenues fell 28%."

"We’re heading for a sovereign debt crisis. That’s not an opinion; it’s based on the numbers. How do we get out of it?"
For elites, there is really only one way out at this point is, and that’s inflation. And they’re right on one point. Tax cuts won’t do it, structural changes to the economy wouldn’t do it. Both would help if done properly, but the problem is simply far too large. Growth would have to greatly exceed current levels, and that’s just not in the cards.
There’s only one solution left, inflation.
Now, the Fed printed about $4 trillion over the past several years and we barely have had any inflation at all.
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Old 11-08-2018, 05:33 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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had to break it up

"The reason we didn’t have inflation all that time is because most of the new money was given by the Fed to the banks, who turned around and parked it on deposit at the Fed to gain interest. The money never made it out into the economy, where it would produce inflation."
"The Fed can call a board meeting, vote on a new policy, walk outside and announce to the world that effective immediately, the price of gold is $5,000 per ounce.
They could make that new price stick by using the Treasury’s gold in Fort Knox and the major U.S. bank gold dealers to conduct “open market operations” in gold.
They will be a buyer if the price hits $4,950 per ounce or less and a seller if the price hits $5,050 per ounce or higher. They will print money when they buy and reduce the money supply when they sell via the banks.
The Fed would target the gold price rather than interest rates."
"A rise in the price of gold from today’s roughly $1,230 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a massive devaluation of the dollar when measured in the quantity of gold that one dollar can buy.

"There it is — massive inflation in 15 minutes: the time it takes to vote on the new policy.
Don’t think this is possible? It’s happened in the U.S. twice in the past 80 years. The first time was in 1933 when President Franklin Roosevelt ordered an increase in the gold price from $20.67 per ounce to $35.00 per ounce, nearly a 75% rise in the dollar price of gold."
Don't hold your breath waiting for this to happen.

Good article from David Stockman;
"The 30-year monetary party is over, and the money printers which fueled that global bond bubble of the present era are about to become the bond-dumpers of tomorrow."
"To wit, it is absolutely guaranteed that during the next two years there will be a non-functioning government and that Washington's abject fiscal incontinence will reach the point of downright embarrassment---even down there in the Imperial City."
Keep in mind that the House must originate all spending bills. Sounds like gridlock to me.
"It's as if arsonists were running around a burning building with a can of kerosene screaming that there is a fuel glut. But now for reasons of institutional survival, as we develop below, they have jettisoned the kerosene and manned the water hoses.

Needless to say, you don't remove $21 trillion of supply from the global bond markets without leaving big-time dislocations and distortions in this massively hollowed out financial space-"
"uring the same 15-year period in which central bank balance sheets soared by $21 trillion,"
"It wasn't real, and the next stop on the bubble express is something like the 2007-2009 meltdown shown in the graph above when the global equity market cap plunged by nearly 60% from $60 trillion to $25 trillion.

The equivalent plunge this time would amount to $50 trillion, but a reprise of the V-shaped rebound which occurred after 2009 is now out of the question because the central banks have already shot their wad. The various forms and phases of QT----which were essentially a $21 trillion monetary fraud---- were the work of a one-trick pony.

In fact, the reason the central banks are suddenly pivoting to QT under the leadership of the Fed is to hastily replenish their dry powder. But it's too late. They will destroy the equity bubble long before they get back to "normal" interest rates and balance sheets---even as they fear that after the next crash they will be impotent to reverse the carnage and that the pony will then be taken out back and shot."

"2004) "the $30 trillion of stock market capitalization at the time represented about 68% of global GDP, which was about $44 trillion.

By contrast, the $80 trillion global equity capitalization at the peak of a few months ago represented about 100% of current year worldwide GDP. So even though worldwide income back in 2004 was undoubtedly over-capitalized in the equity markets, it has now become egregiously so after the post-2008 print-a-thons.

Consequently, even if you give the benefit of the doubt to the implicit 2004 cap rate of 68%, global stock markets today would be worth about $55 trillion. You can characterize the $25 trillion excess at the recent bubble top,"
Contra Corner » The Demise Of Bubble Finance And The Folly Of Trump-O-Nomics, Part 2

Goldman Sachs explains gridlock;
The Ukraine is facing default next year. https://sputniknews.com/europe/20181...t-obligations/

Italy has told the EU and ECB to shove it. The globalist Macron has a plan.
"The comments came a day after French President Emmanuel Macron called for creating a "real European army" in order to protect the residents of EU countries. "

Here are 2 articles about how German military equipment is junk.

The solution;

As long as our money is spent on military hardware, everything will be good.
“Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States.” The analysis is the brainchild of Trump’s adviser for trade and manufacturing policy, Peter Navarro, who happens to also be the key architect of the president’s trade wars."
"The only reason it’s not a national scandal -- complete with Fox News banner headlines about the end of the American way of life as we know it and the coming of creeping socialism -- is because it’s part of the one institution that has always been exempt from the dictates of the “free market”: the Department of Defense."
"The essence of the Pentagon’s scheme for making America safe for a never-ending policy of war preparations (and war) is to organize as much of the economy as possible around the needs of military production."

"and needless to say, this being the Pentagon, one of the biggest desires expressed in the report is a need for -- yes, you guessed it! -- more money. Never mind that the United States already spends more on its military than the next seven nations in the world combined (five of whom are U.S. allies). Never mind that the increasein Pentagon spending over the past two years is largerthan the entire military budget of Russia. Never mind that, despite pulling tens of thousands of troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan, this country’s spending on the Pentagon and related programs (like nuclear warhead work at the Department of Energy) will hit $716 billionin fiscal year 2019, one of the highest levels ever. Face it, say the Pentagon and its allies on Capitol Hill, the U.S. won’t be able to build a reliable, all-weapons-all-the-time economic-industrial base without spending yet more taxpayer dollars. Think of this as a “Pentagon First” strategy."
"Where could alternatives to Pentagon job-creation programs come from? The short answer is: invest in virtually anything but buying more weapons and waging more wars and Americans will be better off. For instance, Pentagon spending creates startlingly fewer jobs per dollar than putting the same taxpayer dollars into infrastructure repair and rebuilding, alternative energy creation, education, or health care. A study conducted by University of Massachusetts economist Heidi Garrett-Peltier for the Costs of War Project at Brown University found that, had the government invested in civilian activities the $230 billion per year wasted on America’s post-9/11 wars, that sum would have created 1.3 million additional jobs. "
"But an analysis by Miriam Pemberton and her colleagues at the Institute for Policy Studies indicates that the United States spends 28 times as much on its military as it does on genuinely job-creating programs"

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Old 11-09-2018, 04:02 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Job markets,,, debt bubbles

I've mentioned over and over that accepted economic theory makes almost no connection to human behavior. I've posted several examples showing that modern economic theory is completely wrong. Here are a couple of articles discussing these ideas.
"In the late 1970s, as the old certainties of Keynesianism collapsed, a new generation of economists moved the discipline on to the terrain of super-abstract equations. Their assumption was that the economy tends towards equilibrium"

"And the stakes are big, too. One of the theories that, even now, eight years after the crash, continues to disorient policymakers is the assumption that actions by central banks are irrelevant. A total of $12tn (£9.1tn) has been printed by central banks to stave off global depression, yet the threat remains real. Stagnation is a threat that keeps central bankers, governments and social theorists awake at night – with the palliative always being looser monetary policy.

Yet orthodox economic theory insists it would have no real effect if the central banks pulled all this support – since the equations tell them there is no correlation between monetary policy and output. Mark Carney or Mario Draghi could double interest rates and slash quantitative easing and the economy should grow at just the same rate, says the theory."
So, all that currency inflation does not cause price inflation which lowers consumption.

More bad theory;

"Trickle-down theory also predicts a positive correlation between inequality and economic growth, the idea being that income disparities strengthen motivation to get ahead. Yet when researchers track the data within individual countries over time, they find a negative correlation."

There seems to be no consideration of the fact that capital can move instantly but, wage earners are stuck in one place. This means that low-wage workers will get financing and jobs but, nobody else. The destruction of the wage-base brings down consumption,,, brings down profits,,, brings down tax collection,,, brings down the bond markets.

"As former Trump strategist Steve Bannon said in September (and more recently in a debate with David Frum):

"Millennials, please understand one thing. You’re better fed, better educated, in better shape, you’re more culturally aware than 19th-century Russian serfs, but you are nothing but serfs."
""At some point, you can have a bit of an effect of a lost generation," says University of Zurich economist, David Dorn. "If you get to the point where you’re turning 30, you’ve never held a real job and you don’t have a college education, then it is very hard to recover at that point."
""You don’t own anything and you’re not going to own anything," he continued. "You are just going to be on the continual wheel of the gig economy, two paychecks away from financial ruin."

Armstrong, "The Euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.1% in September 2018, which was down slightly from the year/year perspective of about 8.9%. This above all proves that the entire theory of the Quantity of Money is bogus. It also demonstrates that the Austerity Policy of Europe has caused unbelievable social damage resulting in what is being called the Lost Generation with unemployment among the youth reach 60% in Southern Europe."

"Without a COMPLETE rejection of Austerity and a COMPLETE overhaul of the European Union structure, there is absolutely NO HOPE what so ever of Europe coming out of the death spiral. This will only get worse as politicians, with ZERO experience in trading markets, will debate and refuse to accept responsibility for their actions. Then you opened the doors to refugees when unemployment is at a serious high? And you wonder why there will be civil unrest and backlash against migrants?"

5 years ago, Armstrong warned Germany about a looming pension crisis. This has finally come out in the open.

"In the United States, housing prices are now 8% higher than they were at the peak of the property bubble in 2006, according to the property website Zillow. The price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which measures whether stock-market prices are within a reasonable range, is now higher than it was both in 2008 and at the start of the Great Depression in 1929."
The FED pumped out $27 trillion. Worldwide, the CBs pumped out $237 trillion. This was all done to rescue bankers and the welfare-warfare State. The monetary inflation created price inflation that priced many people out of markets. The debt creation created and interest burden that is in the process of dragging down everything.

The value of an object is directly related to what somebody else will pay you for this object. What happens if there is a big hiccup in a market that is over-supplied?
A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty. That’s 50 Million Apartments

The creation of global warming to usher in the NWO.
Venezuela made the mistake of keeping their gold in England.

11/09 Asia stocks slide after Fed keeps rates unchanged – CNBC
11/09 A Chinese recession is inevitable – don’t think it won’t affect you – Guardian
11/09 A worldwide debt default is a real possibility – Forbes
11/09 China has more distressed corporate debt than all other EMs – Bloomberg

The CBs did unlimited bond printing to save the banks with little regard for the downside.
Since the State is a parasite, it has a perpetual fear of losing outside support. The police-state crackdown is just there to ensure continued financial support. BUT, monetary inflation = price inflation,,, + low-wage competition = falling consumption resulting in falling wealth creation. The State can't very well steal what isn't there,,,, isn't produced.
Trump reduced taxes to try to stimulate the economy. There is no escaping the global mean wage so, a tax reduction won't be a permanent fix.

11/08 U.S. government’s borrowing binge poses global risks: Kemp – Reuters
11/09 Politicians ignore the looming $121.7 trillion debt crisis – GoldSeek

What other choice do they have?
Italy is on track to blow up the EU. They have been advised that the first-leavers will do the best.
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Old 11-10-2018, 04:18 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Oil is in the news

Fracking has never made any profit. It was kept alive by CB money funnelled into the junk bond market. That FED money has come to an end. There are lots of strange gyrations in the oil market.
"a senior adviser familiar with the project told The Wall Street Journal referring to a draft bill aiming to designate OPEC as an illegal organization, which was introduced by US lawmakers who oppose the cartel.
Saudi Arabia’s state-funded think tank is looking into potential effects of the dissolution of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

11/09 Oil drops for a 10th day, longest losing streak in at least three decades – CNBC
11/09 The oil rout just became a bear market for U.S. crude – MarketWatch
11/09 Gold, silver prices pressured as crude oil market melts down – Kitco

"The finish left U.S. oil down 20.6% from its Oct. 3 peak,"
Also, General Electric has really hit the skids.
"like the Emerging Market debt bust, with over $9 trillion on the line. But the focus here is on the Big US Bank Stock Index (BKX) breakdown, confirmed by the comedown in the crude oil price. The entire Wall Street banks are highly vulnerable to the oil price due to shale sector exposure. It signals the death of one or two major US banks. It signals the acceleration of the Systemic Lehman Event. The "
GOLDEN JACKASS.COM - The Golden Jackass Knows Gold, Currencies & Bonds"
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Old 11-10-2018, 03:32 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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OF COURSE, this is all Trump's fault

David Stockman is quite the pessimist AND, quite derogatory to Trump. He writes as if Trump has full control of D.C.. He writes ignoring that Trump inherited a $ 20 trillion deficit. He writes ignoring the fact that the finance community controls much of what comes out of D.C. He writes ignoring the fact that 96.2 million Americans are not in the labor force. You get the idea. Here is a long cite.

Trump and the GOP deserve everlasting ignominy for literally ****-canning fiscal rectitude. So doing, they have completely abandoned the GOP's fundamental reason for being--- watch-dogging the US Treasury-
Trump presidency: Namely, the fact that he and the Congressional GOP have spent 20-months literally desecrating every principal that the once and former party of fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets and minimal public debt ever stood for.

To wit, a $1.2 trillion new borrowing requirement for the current fiscal year is fixing to slam hard upon the $600 billion of old debt the Fed will be dumping---along with hundreds of billions more of homeless treasury paper that will be on offer from carry trade speculators getting whacked by rapidly increasing repo rates and by foreign investors getting clipped by the rising dollar and prohibitive currency hedging costs.
It was baked in the cake by ZIRP.

Financial repression sure looked easy, of course, when our monetary central planners had their Big Fat Thumbs on the scales during the last 14 years during which they collectively scooped up $21 trillion of government bonds and other paper and salted it away on their cost free balance sheets.
That is, these fools have so bludgeoned and distorted the bond markets that the latter have mutated into a coiled spring of instability. In hundreds of different ways, speculators have been buying on leverage what the central banks have been buying, and now that the latter--led by the Fed---are pivoting to QT, they will be selling what the central banks are selling in what will amount to a global margin call.

That's the coiled spring that has been implanted in the bond markets by the foolish attempts of Keynesian central bankers to improve upon the natural growth propensity of market capitalism by systematically and deeply falsifying interest rates.

So when that coiled spring of mis-pricing up-chucks the benchmark 10-year Treasury note toward the 4.00% marker, it will be all over except the shouting.
They weren't trying to improve on natural growth. They were trying to rescue the banks that failed because manufacturing left the country.
By that we mean the Everything Bubble will splatter in the casino, bringing on a fierce new onslaught of "restructuring" campaigns from the corporate C-suites as they desperately heave workers, inventories and impaired assets overboard---like they did in the fall and winter of 2008- 09---to appease the trading gods and rescue their immolating stock options.
No rescue is possible.

The outcome is otherwise known as "recession', Bubble Finance style. And once the recessionary red ink starts flowing on top of the already hideous Trumpite/GOP Fiscal Debauch, Washington's fiscal veins will be opened for the terminal blood-letting.
Armstrong did mention a collapse of FED GOV bonds.
Recently, all 16 branches of our Intelligence Community have come together to release a shocking report. These agencies, that include the CIA, FBI, Army, and Navy, they've already begun to estimate the impact of the fall of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

And our reign as the world's leading super power being annihilated in a way equivalent to the end of the British Empire, post-World War II.

And the end game could be a nightmarish scenario, where the world falls into an extended period of global anarchy.

These 16 agencies war-gamed this whole thing on super computers and said a crash was unavoidable. BUT, somehow, it is Trump's fault.
They won't even notice the fiscal typhoon coming until they are engulfed by it, and then the "low interest" man in the Oval Office will launch an all-out war on the Fed, which will only make the conflagration worse.
Why not have an all-out war on the FED? It has long had an all-out war on the working man.

vibrant capitalism can employ any and all workers who volunteer their labor if the state doesn't throw up obstacles or block the way with unreasonable minimum wage laws.
RIGHT, you just have to underbid the Chinaman and the robot to get a job.
EconomicPolicyJournal.com: The Nation's Fiscal Doomsday Machine is Now Unstoppable
Trump hopes to slow the runaway train that is insolvency of the bond market.
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Old 11-11-2018, 05:15 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Fulford,,,The FED is on the brakes, the treasury is on the gas pedal

I'll start with Fulford. It is difficult to know just how much of his reports are true. They ARE fascinating.
Saudi Arabia to be broken up; Israel must choose between Netanyahu and Tel Aviv
"The dismantling of the Khazarian mafia control grid continues with ongoing takedown of the leadership of Saudi Israelia, say Pentagon, CIA, and other sources. In particular, negotiations are now taking place between Russia and the U.S. to divide Saudi Arabia into a Sunni zone controlled by Iran and a Shia zone controlled by Turkey, according to CIA and FSB sources.

Here is what the Pentagon had to say on this: “Karma’s a pitch, as Saudi Arabia may be dismembered for what it did to Jamal Khashoggi, and Mohammed bone Sawman (MBS) may be forced to end the Yemen war and lift the Qatar blockade, while the U.S. may find new partners in Turkey and Iran after the Global Currency Reset.”
It is true that Mohammed bin Salman has had an amazing fall. It is true that the world wants an end to the war in Yemen.

"The highest-profile of these are senior Goldman Sachs bankers arrested along with former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak for looting money from that country. One of the uses for the stolen money was to finance the Rothschild-glorifying film “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
"In any case, the ongoing slow-motion stock market collapse will continue to claim corporate victims as the new Quantum Financial System goes online, the Pentagon sources say."

"November 8 - Wall Street Journal (Justin Lahart): "Anybody who thought the Federal Reserve might scale back its plans for future rate increases after all the recent turmoil in the stock market has to be disappointed. The Fed on Thursday left interest rates unchanged, and it didn't change much else. "
The FED is (effectively) shrinking the money supply by $50 billion a month. The reverse-leverage effect is shrinking the markets by many $trillions.
"WSJ: "Treasury Bond Auction Draws Weakest Demand in Nearly a Decade."
You know what Armstrong said about the coming failure of U.S. debt.

"The U.S. Treasury, if you didn’t know, will issue $1.3 trillion in new debt in 2018. This represents a 146 percent increase in new federal government debt issuance from 2017. By our rough estimation, this number will significantly increase in 2019 and again in 2020.

But who will buy this glut of Treasuries? Not the Fed. Remember, the Fed is currently reducing its balance sheet. Not China. Remember, China, facing a trade war, surely isn’t eager to buy U.S. debt.

Without the demand of these big debt buyers yields will rise at the worst possible time; when public and private debt are at record levels. As interest rates rise, credit becomes more and more expensive. So, too, servicing existing debt takes up a greater and greater percentage of the borrowers budget."
"Rising borrowing costs will also have the effect of strangling inflated asset prices, including stocks and real estate."
11/10 US home-buying sentiment craters to second-lowest level ever recorded – IW
11/08 Seattle home prices down $80,000 from peak amid spike in unsold homes – ST


11/10 New book: America now dominated by monopolies in virtually every industry – FS

The death of true capitalism was brought about by the emergence of crony-capitalism.
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:59 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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federal Europe,,, China meltdown, not enough people

Apparently, it is desperation time in Europe. Germany has a $ 1trillion current account surplus. The rest of the EU has a $1 trillion deficit.
"In Germany, the SPD is now pushing for a revolution in Europe for all member states to surrender their sovereignty to Brussels. They are arguing to federalize Europe and thereby create an integrated Europe of one government."
"The SPD manifesto calls for a Europe without nations and borders, thus to surrender sovereignty to prevent the resurgence of nationalism. EU Council President Donald Tusk has warned against the emergence of populist and anti-integration forces in Europe and the US."

"Chinese demand, which was up nearly 20% last year, has cooled to just 3% this year" "Some are eyeing Italy as a key scapegoat because not only is the country embroiled in a debt crisis but its manufacturing sector is about one-fifth smaller than it was in 2008."
"A recession is inevitable – both in the United States and in Europe. Unlike the last economic contraction, the ECB will be out of bullets, unless it wants to experience rampant inflation and a currency crisis. European nations are deeply in debt, running budget deficits and witnessing putrid results. There isn’t much left for these bloc members to do, except employ pro-market measures, like rolling back aggressive spending efforts, paying off the debt, and cutting taxes."
So, pro-market measures will bring back the millions of jobs that left the country.

"However, the media have to a certain extent turned on Macron, perhaps because he believes his “complex thoughts” cannot be grasped by journalists with their admittedly limited cognitive abilities."
"There is nothing he can do to make the elitist and gridlocked European Union more effective, nothing he can do to improve the “human capital” in the Afro-Islamic banlieues, and not much he can do to improve the economy which the French people would find acceptable. "
"Since the European Central Bank has been printing lending hundreds of billions of euros to stimulate the Eurozone economy, France’s economic performance has been decidedly mediocre, with low growth, slowly declining unemployment, and no reduction in debt (currently at 98.7% of GDP)."
80% is considered the death-cross.

"Collomb then virtually predicted civil war:
Communities in France are coming into conflict more and more and it is becoming very violent . . . I would say that, within five years, the situation could become irreversible. Yes, we have five or six years to avoid the worst. After that . "

"In the last week, things have gone from bad to worse but all in the future tense. Right now, there isn’t any sign China’s economy is on the verge of collapse or even contraction. But the number of negative factors which could push it that far are piling up; mostly in the monetary therefore financial system."
"The economic stats all keep pointing in this direction. China’s economy isn’t right now collapsing but that isn’t the problem. Again, what the numbers suggest is we’ve seen the best there is and it isn’t (ever) going to get any better. And it isn’t near enough growth.

There just isn’t sufficient economic momentum anywhere in the world to overcome eurodollar tightening. "
The FED is tightening and, the ECB plans to tighten in December.
"Reflation #3 was given a fair shot especially in commodity markets, and it just didn’t pan out. The screeching, emotional pleas for globally synchronized growth were never really based in honest analysis."
"the economy is stuck, which means markets and financial agents are going to realize that this if this is as good as it gets the “stimulus” panic in early 2016 didn’t actually create the economy everyone was looking for "

NOT ONE MENTION, "China's labor market: Shrinking workforce, rising wages. The country's working-age population is expected to continue to decline in 2016 after 20 million stepped out of the market in the past five consecutive years, said a leading labor expert on Saturday, China Business News reported.Nov 21, 2016"
"China's working-age population, aged between 16 and 59, decreased by 5.48 million in 2017. "
"Forty countries now have shrinking working-age populations, "
How can these idiots write an article on the economy and, ignore the population?

“Central Bank arrogance is one of the main reasons why we should still be scared. As a former official at the NY Fed, Peter Fisher, recently noted, the Fed has acknowledged no failures."
“So, let’s look at the Fed’s track record, shall we? Did you know that in 105 years, the Fed has never accurately forecast a recession?
…. Or that the current running total is nine straight annual economic forecasts that they’ve had monumentally incorrect?"
"Overall global debt has surged: last year it was 217% of gross domestic product, nearly 40 percentage points higher – not lower – than 2007.”
"CNBC reports, “Analyst who called February correction says the Fed will trigger a bear market with two more hikes”:
"Mr. Powell and Ms. Yellen tell us happy days can go on indefinitely. Who are you betting on?"
"If a .44% drop equals $1.5 trillion, would investors lose over $67 trillion in a 20% decline? " "“…. A recent JPM report suggests, that the next financial crash may be so cataclysmic that the Federal Reserve may have to enter the market to buy up stocks….”
"The Fed is aggressively hiking rates, while unloading trillions in treasuries, driving rates even higher. Does that look like “very gradually” or are they slamming on the breaks while putting the car in reverse?"

Here is an article on the future of energy that shows EVERYTHING all carefully planned out.
Here is the hockey stick that you have all been looking for.
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Old 11-13-2018, 04:25 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Spreading desperation

It seems that desperation is slowly setting in.
The battle of confidence. Fear vs greed.
"Corporations have been buying back their shares since 2009 and are projected to buy another trillion or so dollars worth in the coming year. "
11/12 Swiss National Bank dumped over 1 million Apple shares in Q3 – ZH
11/12 “iPhone story showing cracks”: Apple under $200 after supplier forecast cut – ZH

11/12 Reasons to be bearish on stocks now are swamping the bull case – CNBC
11/12 Not terrified of a recession? These stocks hint you should be – Yahoo

11/12 China rate-cut chatter becomes louder as growth risks gather – Bloomberg
The working age population falls 1 million a year and, they are mystified about growth risk.

11/12 Japan PM Abe calls for public works spending plan to help economy – Reuters
They already tried that years ago.
11/12 Debt ceiling will be set to record $22 trillion, fund government to just summer – WE
So, do you think that it is time to start worrying?
11/12 Europe in panic mode over economy – Liberty Nation
PANIC is NOT a plan.
11/12 Yuan extends losses after worst week in 4 mths – NASDAQ
11/12 Euro slides to 16-month low, pound sinks as EU risks reignite – Yahoo
11/12 Italy, Brexit worries are a drag on European currencies as dollar rallies – MW

So, the dollar is rising BUT, the SNB dumped Apple. The rising dollar will wipe out everything but, nothing else will be safe.
11/12 New home inventory forecasts a recession – Ufina
With ZIRP, the banks gave us no interest on our savings. This profited them by about $400 billion a year. Interest rates are going up and, wiping out mortgage demand but, we still don't get any interest on our savings.
11/12 Real rates continue to soar while Fed does & says almost nothing new – Upfina

Malaysia wants a $4.5 billion refund from the crooks at Goldman.

"He explained that America’s wealthy kleptocrats, tax-dodgers, and particularly multinational companies have been massively parking money offshore. By 2017, US multinationals have “accumulated about $2.6 trillion offshore while they didn’t have to pay the 35 percent US corporate tax,” the economist said.

Henry points out that the Trump administration has slashed that tax to about 15 percent and now they have eight years to pay it while not even being required to repatriate the money hoarded offshore.

“The new tax bill was a disaster but it did benefit the major companies by allowing them to get their $2.6 trillion back home tax free,” Henry said."
Here is an excellent vid explaining every aspect of why the State and banks refuse to do anything about the drug trade.
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Old 11-13-2018, 04:00 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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The bust of globalism

The British people wanted to leave the EU but, the politicians did not. The London bankers wanted free access to European capital markets.
The Italian people AND the politicians wanted a Euro exit. They are on their way.
Poland is now planning to leave. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...th-eu-by-2020/
The momentum shows that the EU bond market / project has NO future. The capital flight will only make the dollar stronger.

11/13 Sunrun installed 100 megawatts in Q3, its biggest quarter yet – Green Tech Media
11/13 US crude falls for 11th straight session, longest losing streak on record – CNBC

The fallout from renewable energy is; the low-cost producers will do OK. Fracking will just keep falling and, the debt markets will abandon it.
11/13 Funds keep dumping blocks of GE shares at an exceedingly rapid pace – Atlantic
The speed of the unwind is amazing.

11/13 Fitch finds state pension liabilities rose faster than debt – Bond Buyer REALLY?
11/12 Yuan extends losses after worst week in 4 mths – NASDAQ
11/12 Euro slides to 16-month low, pound sinks as EU risks reignite – Yahoo
11/12 Italy, Brexit worries are a drag on European currencies as dollar rallies – MW

As the Yaun and Euro weaken, dollar strength will be self-reinforcing. As the dollar gets stronger, we import more and drive up our trade deficit. We lose out on exports. Foreigners find it impossible to service dollar-denominated debt. Powell is going to run this train until something breaks. That will be the currencies of our economic competitors.
11/13 Global leaders snub Trump and his nationalistic vision – Politico
This snub is all over the news. These snubbers are a bunch of panty-wastes,,,, like Macron and Trudeau. I doubt that Trump gives the snub even a moment's thought. He and the dollar are running the show. Snubbing Trump shows that this is ALL they can do.

The globalists are pushing as hard as they can to bring world socialism. They plan to be running the show. The bankers claim that nationalism has caused ALL of the wars. A not-so-close examination shows that the bankers cause all the wars. Here is a good article about the push to socialism in Europe.

The world is now in a debt trap. The CBs created something like $ 250 trillion of new debt. There are claims that this was done to bring on a crash. We would then all clamor for the IMF and SDR to rescue us. Here is an excellent article that is a must-read.
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Old 11-14-2018, 04:37 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Oil volatility and the fallen angels

As Of October 2018, The US Is Now Energy Independent
"This number is broken down into 11.35mn b/d of crude oil and 4.57 mn b/d of natural gas liquids (NGLs" No where to store all that gas.
"With Some Tar Sands Oil Selling at a Loss"
"The larger-than-expected surge in North American oil volumes has come primarily from the Permian, Canada's oil sands,"
"according to Bank of America forecasts US crude oil volumes alone will exceed 12MM b/d in 2019."

"oil prices have plunged more than $20 a barrel since the start of October,"
"Along the way, U.S. crude has posted its longest losing streak since it began trading in New York more than three decades ago. "
" Rising U.S. shale oil production will overwhelm the nation’s refining capacity, with three-quarters of the additional oil produced in the United States by 2023 shipped to Europe and Asia, according to a new study by consultancy Wood Mackenzie. "

How Wall Street Enabled the Fracking 'Revolution' That's Losing Billions

"market cap of GE now is $69.5bn"
"1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn"
"GE’s market cap peaked (ironically) during the dot com bubble in August 2000 at $594BN"
"GE is already trading like junk, and has become the proverbial canary in the coalmine for what many have said could be the biggest risk facing the bond market: over $1 trillion in potential "fallen angel" debt, or investment grade names that end up being downgraded to high yield, resulting in a junk bond crisis."
"Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. Meanwhile, the total notional of BBB investment grade debt has grown to $2.5 trillion in par value today, a 227% increase since 2009, and now represents 50% of the entire IG index. "
11/13 Funds keep dumping blocks of GE shares at an exceedingly rapid pace – Atlantic

11/13 Apple loses $150 billion in a week – Zero Hedge
Not much of a bounce / recovery these days.
11/13 Italy expected to defy EU request to present revised budget – Guardian
Poland, Austria and Hungary are watching from the sidelines to grab on to the Italian train when it leaves the station.
11/13 France calls for Europe to become ‘an Empire’ to rival China and the US – Daily Mail
That evil twit Macron is on his last legs. The French can thank Trump for causing Macron's mind to snap.
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Old 11-15-2018, 04:05 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Weapons, YES,,,clueless FED,,,Merkel's destruction of Europe

Cost of US 'War on Terror' Will Soon Pass $6 Trillion
Pentagon Wants More Money for Lasers to Shoot Down Drones, Missiles
VP Pence said to be gearing up for all-out Cold War with China unless it bows to all US demands

There you have it. We need to spend every penny on building up the military.
US Military Could Lose Potential Conflict Against Russia, China - Report to US Congress
We don't actually want a hot war. We just want to spend as if a hot war was coming.
11/15 General Electric seeks urgent asset sales as bond fears rise – Reuters Fire sale time.

11/14 Mall owners handing over the keys to lenders before they even default – Zero Hedge
11/15 When this liquidity bubble pops, we’ll face the biggest crisis yet – Forbes
No kidding.
Starbucks is axing 350 jobs so that: "“Starbucks is raising its dividend and increasing its share buyback program to return $10 billion more to shareholders by 2020 than previously promised, CEO Kevin Johnson told analysts on a conference call Thursday."
AI is taking over fixed income trading.
"The new virtual assistant, dubbed Skynet 2.0 "Abbie 2.0", specializes in identifying bonds that human portfolio managers have missed. She can also help spot human errors and communicate with similar bots like herself at other firms to arrange trades, making humans redundant."

The FED;
"The Fed uses equilibrium models to understand an economy that is not an equilibrium system; it’s a complex dynamic system.

The Fed uses the Phillips curve to understand the relationship between unemployment and inflation when 50 years of data say there is no fixed relationship.

The Fed uses “value at risk” modeling based on normally distributed events when the evidence is clear that the degree distribution of risk events is a power curve, not a normal or bell curve.

As a result of these defective models, the Fed printed $3.5 trillion of new money beginning in 2008 to “stimulate” the economy, only to produce the weakest recovery in history.
The U.S. is now getting a triple shot of tightening in the form of higher rates, reduced money supply and a stronger dollar. At this rate, we may be in a recession sometime next year unless the Fed reverses course. We’ll see if the Fed wakes up to the danger before it’s too late."
This is a danger to the upper loop. Not so much the lower loop. Wait and see if / when the FED reverses.

Hobgoblin Merkel;
"French MEP Bernard Monot accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of ruining the bloc by ushering in 4 million migrants from Africa and the Middle East during her visit to the plenary session. He warned that the “worst times” are yet to come, when 10 million so-called economic migrants flee to Europe.

“Your 13 years of staying in power has led the European Union to an economic, social and cultural collapse. What will go down in history as a result of your policies is your compulsive and unilateral decision to open Germany for the migrants,"

11 signs of a slowing economy.
"#8 One new study discovered that 62 percent of all U.S. jobs do not currently pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle.

#10 Right now, more than half of all U.S. children are living in households that receive financial assistance from the federal government."
America's fertility rates just hit an all-time low. Researchers don't know why.
11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Slow Down Dramatically
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Old 11-16-2018, 02:08 AM
wayne.ct wayne.ct is offline
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Relative effects

I'd like to gauge the relative effect on the consumers and the economy of oil price, money printing and import taxes as being imposed recently. I don't know that any of this is a worry in the "upper realms" but in the lower loop it seems that the tail is wagging the dog. I'll try to explain.

From the very superficial research I was able to do in just a few minutes, it seems that there is about $38 billion of imports projected to be taxed at 25%. So, thinking this is an annual figure, consumers will pay roughly $9.5 billion in additional out of pocket from whatever family budget they may have.

Now, looking at out of pocket for fuel, gas, whatever. Supposedly for a $10 change (increase) in crude oil prices, the impact on the economy is (negative) $50 billion. The price of crude, low to high and now back down has ranged about $20. It has been trending up for the whole year but has dropped about $20 in the last month or less. So, it seems the impact on the pocket book of the price of crude is 5 to 10 times that of the price of import fees.

Lastly, compare to the bloat in the "money supply". That figure is about 1 trillion or more per year. I.e. $1,000 billion. So, that does not directly impact my personal cash flow but the size of it seems to be out of proportion. For every $1 that my situation gets affected, big brother is out there giving $20 to Wall Street and the big banks. What am I missing?

For the year leading up to the midterm elections, the price of oil is creeping up as much as $20. Starting a week or so before the mid terms the price of oil has dropped the same $20. That alone is weird, but is still small potatoes compared the monetary inflation. So curious. Yes? No?

Also, one more thing. Other than a few voices here and there, everybody is focused on the edges where Trump has done this or that. What a travesty it is.
There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.
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Old 11-16-2018, 05:40 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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December will be very bad for Europe

Dunno Wayne, I just cut and paste.

Well, everybody knows about black swans. Now, there is a new term, Grey Rhinos.
" Edwards notes that back then these "grey rhinos" were dismissed as serious threats by mainstream commentators - the same way they are being dismissed now - "in large part because they had been in plain sight for a long time, and yet the global economy had continued to go from strength to strength"
"the US and China, but Japan, the eurozone and UK certainly have glaring macro imbalances and financial bubbles that might burst at any time.'
"Two years of massive UK public sector fiscal tightening, in both 2016 and 2017, removed some 1¼% from both years' GDP growth"
Side note, the budget cuts just in London resulted in 20,000 fewer cops and, a runaway murder rate.

He goes on to mention Italy.
"In Edwards' view, without radical measures Italy will likely never ever grow inside the eurozone (Italian GDP is barely above where it was when they joined the euro). Instead, the SocGen strategist is convinced that "Italy will leave the eurozone during the next economic crisis as youth unemployment roars upwards from the current 30% towards 50%,"

"Time is running out before the EU’s make-or-break summit on the future of the euro next month. The global expansion is looking tired and fragile. Mr Le Maire said Europe’s leaders had failed to learn the lessons of 2008 and the 2012 debt crisis. They had not completed the banking union, or broken the ‘bank-sovereign doom loop’ with full help from the bail-out fund (ESM). Nor had they completed the capital markets union, or established a fiscal entity to bind EU economies closer together. “I am not being pessimistic, I am facing reality,” he said."
They were all told in the beginning that it would NEVER work.
Every major economy is close to falling into a deep hole from which they will struggle to emerge. The monetary and fiscal ladders thrust down into the 2008 pits of despair will no longer be as available next time around. "

"As noted above, while Edwards "totally agrees" with Bruno Le Maire’s realism, he doesn’t think time is running out, instead "I think time has run out."

The Central Bankers have come to realize that gold is necessary to limit the runaway bond market created by the State in it's pursuit of freebies for everybody. Good article.

" As for the price of money, I think Powell is really in the mold of Volcker. He's a practical guy, and what he's decided to do is pretty much just to hike interest rates until the market collapses. That would indicate that pausing from this tightness is probably 5-10% below the recent low that we saw in the stock markets. If we don’t get to that level again, he's going to continue the hiking.

So you almost have a self-feeding process by which, ultimately, the stock market will have to collapse because behind the scene, the pragmatic way that Powell does his policy really means the interest rate is going up and, hence, you haven't seen your move to safety yet in terms of Treasurys."
Armstrong said that Treasuries are going to collapse.
So, is Powell going until he sees the flight into treasuries?

Good read on crypto currencies, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...cryptocurrency

STRATCOM says that America needs to spend zillions of dollars on hypersonic weapons.

We need to get away from the whole war mindset.
Nobody is going to invade America. Trans-Jordon is a different story.
Defense (offence) spending is supposed to trickle down. Yes, it does but, not enough to do any good.
Keynes advocate counter-cyclical spending by the State when the economy cooled down. He also preferred perpetual war to keep the economy stimulated. I don't think that he every entertained the idea of the State going broke from wars.
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Old 11-18-2018, 05:25 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Uber parasite,,,, 3 articles

John Maynard Keynes Quote
“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

Armstrong, "The entire problem with this Quantitative Easing has been the plain fact that the government is the biggest debtor. This is the same model around the world. Lowering interest rates to encourage people to borrow is absurd when the greatest impact will be upon the government. Europe is now on life support thanks to the ECB. Even if we look at the United States, every 1% rise in interest rates adds $220 billion annually to America’s deficit."

Lord Acton, "power corrupts",,,, and attracts the already corrupted.
Since the State is a non-producer, the only role left to it is, PARASITE. The parasite eventually strangles the host. The founding Fathers knew this and refused to create a democracy for America. A democratic republic has a better chance of survival in the long term. They knew that the supreme court was the weak point in their plans. It would eventually distort the balance of power until the States were subservient to the Federal Government.
So, here we are with a terminally bloated central government. The State is clamping down on civil liberties in the hope of retaining control when the default cascade hits. The genesis of the problem was when the chains of gold were removed and the State could expand the bond market without limit. This paid for lots of wars for a greater israel but, it only killed and impoverished the average American.

Powell is blowing up the stock market, probably in the hopes of driving investors into the "safe haven" of U.S. treasury bonds. Armstrong has stated unequivocally that GOV bonds will blow up. Investors can see what is happening to Japan and European bonds. It doesn't take much imagination to see U.S. bonds doing the same thing.

Paul Volker ran the interest rates up to ~21% to wring the excesses out of the system. How high will Powell go?
I found 3 articles that are too good to excerpt. If you live in Western Europe, read them as if your life depended on it.




Any time that the State has the power to inflate the money supply for welfare-warfare, it will do so. America has had a LOT of help at using our Bretton Woods credit card for very expensive wars.
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Old 11-19-2018, 03:58 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Money vs assets,,, parasites vs workers

"Allow me to print the money and I care not who writes the laws." You know how this story goes. At the start, the U.S. dollar was gold-convertible. The dollar had positive value. It had limited issuance. For the purpose of waging war, the State demanded that the CB produce and sell war bonds. This was seen as as such a great arrangement that the State demanded that the practice continue after the end of the war. The gold-link was eventually broken to the private individual in about 1931. It was broken to foreign States in 1971.The Viet-Nam war and the Great Society were just too costly.

The U.S. dollar went from having a positive value to being just a debt-note. As a positive note, it could only be produced in limited quantity. As a debt note, it could be produced in practically unlimited numbers.
Paper money is just one level on Exter's Pyramid.
It ranges from Gold to Credit default swaps.
Each level on the inverted pyramid has it’s own level of "moneyness".
ALL levels of the pyramid are considered as ASSETS.
"Are the forward thinkers of the world only now understanding that in a world with hundreds of trillions of imaginary collateral whose ultimate owner will never be tracked down"

It is more accurate to talk about the supply of assets instead of just the supply of money. At one time the notional value of credit default swaps was right at about $1 quadrillion. The money supply is actually fairly limited. BUT, with every State and corporate entity issuing corporate bonds and stocks, the ASSET supply is enormous. These assets have value because investors agree to buy and hold them.
Price inflation has been muted because there is very little increase in the money supply. The huge increase in the number of assets does not have the same affect as an increase in the money supply. Every nitwit with some kind of charter is increasing the asset supply. This spoofing and financial engineering has been profitable to many but, it hasn't helped the producing economy. It also has a finite life expectancy.

"Philosophers and economists have decried the parasitical effect of finance on productive economic activity.
Indeed, many modern economists argue that we are entering an era of “rentier capitalism,” in which financial capitalists thrive at the expense of good, productive industrialists.
And they have a point. There is mounting evidence that an ever-increasing portion of economic output is accruing to those who gain their money from unproductive economic rents
is a process that began in the 1980s with the removal of barriers to capital mobility. Global capital flows rose from about 5 percent of world GDP in the mid-1990s to about 20 percent in 2007. This is about three times faster than world trade flows.

"While UK banks’ lending to the non-financial economy rose 50 percent between 2005-8, their lending to other financial institutions rose by 260 percent.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, UK house prices were almost ten times what they had been in fourth quarter of 1979, while consumer prices increased just five times over the same period. The FTSE index increased from under 100 points pre-1980 to almost 3,500 in 2007.
Minsky moment in 2008 when lending slowed, house prices fell, and financial assets such as mortgage-backed securities and credit-default swaps effectively became worthless. Mass panic ensued when the banks suddenly found that many of the assets on their balance sheets were not really assets at all. This drove some of the world’s largest banks into insolvency — a situation from which they were quickly rescued by frightened governments.

But saving the banks couldn’t save the economy. In the UK today, we are in the longest period of wage stagnation since the 1860s. We are entering a period of zombie capitalism, in which little new debt can be created to drive growth, but there is not enough productive economic activity to pay the old debt off.
As Marx argued, each adaptation of capitalism merely kicks the can down the road. The crash of 2008 was a structural crisis of the financial capitalist model.
But government debt doubled practically overnight during the financial crisis, primarily due to the bailout of the banks. This isn’t an economic problem, but a political one.

"U.S. corporations have engaged in a borrowing binge since the Global Financial Crisis. Total outstanding non-financial U.S. corporate debt is up by an incredible $2.5 trillion or 40 percent since its 2008 peak, which was already a precariously high level, to begin with."
"U.S. corporate debt is now at an all-time high of over 45% of GDP, which is even worse than the levels reached during the dot-com bubble and U.S. housing and credit bubble:"
Jesse Colombo Blog | How The Bubbles In Stocks And Corporate Bonds Will Burst | Talkmarkets
Wages stagnated decades ago so, money was printed to save ALL of the corporate world. The parasitic finance sector should have downsized but, regulatory capture allowed to grow enormously.

"Now today some 18 months on even one of Britain's supposedly strongest retailer, the John Lewis Partnership (includes Waitrose) has felt the full force of the ongoing collapse of the retail sector, by announcing a 99% profits CRASH."
" the next Financial Crisis is Already underway, playing itself out not in the housing market, or the banking sector but the retail sector! This is nothing new to those who have been reading my articles for the past 4 years as I have been charting the unfolding collapse of the retailer sector right from the retail sectors giant TESCO downwards "
"Tesco was worth approx £30 billion against debt and liabilities of approx £12 billion, against today Tesco is barely worth £13 billion with debt and liabilities of approx £15 billion (debt+pensions hole).a couple of years ago Tesco was reporting profits of £4 billion, which was ample enough to service its debt mountain and waste on junk such as private jets for CEO's, but today that profit has been wiped out to just £112mln, "
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse :: The Market Oracle ::

Here is an article on making Central Banks into public utilities. The article goes on and on. This is a tired old diversion. There is one question and ONE question only. Will fresh printed money be paid to speculators OR, will it be paid to workers? If CB money is first passed through the banks, the actual producers will ALWAYS lose ground to price inflation.
Central Banks Have Gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk :: The Market Oracle ::
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Old 11-19-2018, 03:24 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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RRE meltdown,,,margin debt

The upper lop of the economy consists of finance, insurance and, real; estate. Since anyone with some kind of a charter is allowed to create debt instruments like stocks and bonds, that is exactly what they are doing. Never mind that most of this is just debt paper. Even though stocks are supposed to be shares of a legitimate company, the company itself may be nothing but a ponzi scheme. Witness the evaporation of General Electric.
The FIRE economy meets the productive economy (lower loop) primarily in residential real estate since RRE is a large capacity store of value.

All that hot money that the CBs flooded to the speculators flowed into RRE and blew up the system in 2008. RRE was inflated by the upper loop BUT, depended on wages in the lower loop.
10 years later and, the hot money is flooding into RRE again. The number of Owner-occupied dwelling haven't gone up in many years. The prices are all inflated by speculators. Since wages are stagnant and employment is dropping, price inflation in RRE is all driven by speculation.

11/17 Why the housing market is slumping despite a booming economy – New York Times
11/16 Rising home prices and interest rates squeeze all but the richest homebuyers – NBC
11/15 Mortgage rates may hit 6% sooner, as Fed sheds mortgage-backed securities – WS

Sure, the economy is booming in the upper loop.
"The FED sheds" should be a stark warning to anyone who is paying attention. The FED is doing serious risk-reduction.

" Grant is taking dead aim at one of the biggest bubbles that has been encouraged allowed to re-inflate thanks to the infinite wisdom of our former Fed-heads: the housing market. "
"To defend that last point, JP Morgan Chase in a recent strategy paper noted that just 20% of global asset classes are generating positive returns this year, a number so low that it was only seen during the stagflationary 1970s and the depths of the Global Financial "
"Particularly stunning is the fact that one of the most important banks in the world, Germany’s gigantic Deutsche Bank, is now trading below its financial crisis trough. But, once again, there’s scant concern about the severity of the price breakdowns."

"As Grant shows, it’s also surprising that with median new home “values”* now falling on a national basis there isn’t some serious trepidation in the air. But, instead, most investors seem much more in the greed, rather than fear, mode."
It further doesn’t seem to distress the US investor class that 70% of US residential markets now have prices above where they were during the mother of all housing bubbles."
"Fed is determined to continue its unprecedented “double-tightening” campaign (both raising rates and selling hundreds of billions of bonds from its bloated balance sheet,"
The risky ones first.
"As I speculated in a recent interview with Grant, I believe the so-called Fed Put (i.e., the notion that our central bank will ride to the market’s rescue whenever it sells off) still exists. However, I also believe under Jay Powell the strike price (or the level at which it might consider reversing to its former “Big Easy” status) is much lower than most investors believe. How much lower? Admittedly, this is just a guess but I’d say 30% below the S&P’s September peak."

“algorithms” that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit:

“When the ‘robot trading algorithms’ begin to reverse (selling rallies rather than buying dips), it will not be a slow and methodical process, but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit will become very narrow.”
The reason I bring this up is that, so far, the market has not declined enough to “trigger” margin calls.
At least not yet.
But exactly where is that level? "
"There is no set rule, but there is a point at which the broker-dealers become worried about being able to collect on the “margin lines” they have extended. My best guess is that point lies somewhere around a 20% decline from the peak."
Powell is driving down the stock market, possibly to drive money to GOV bonds. Chances are that he will force the margin call from hell long before he drives any money into bonds.

Armstrong, "The latest hat being thrown into the ring is the European Commission is planning to enter their sanctions against Italy. As it stands currently, they have proposed disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21st, 2018, unless the country’s government agrees to change its draft budget plan according to EU dictates. This could set in motion a drop in Italian debt which may force the ECB to buy more Italian debt or stand back and watch rates go crazy. This may also be the starting point of sending Italy into an exit position from the EU."
The EU has been a losing deal for Italy,,,, financing golden salaries and pensions for legions of do-nothing bureaucrats in Brussels. Italy is the third largest bond market in the world. They can't possibly service their debt load when interest rates go up. If the ECB starts OMT, they will have to continue it forever.

11/19 Speculation rife over BOJ’s easy-money exit – Nikkei
Essentially the BOJ printed trillions of Yen to compensate for a falling birth rate and falling effective wages and, falling confidence in the future. They have finally faced the fact that printing free money can't buy confidence.

11/19 Anti-carbon revolt: massive road blocks against Macron’s diesel tax – Mish
The French GOV spends 57% of the gdp and, is highly in debt. Macron, the globalist plans to just squeeze it out of everybody. Classic parasite.
11/19 Fire-plagued CA won’t let insurers ‘cram’ through big rate hikes in 2019 – CNBC
11/18 California utility customers may be on hook for billions in wildfire damage – NYT
PG&E started the Camp fire and, has inadequate insurance. Presumably, the PUC will let them gouge ratepayers to cover the difference.
11/18 GE pensioners and stockholders contemplate the unthinkable – Forbes A bit late.
11/19 ‘OptionSellers.com’ goes dark after “catastrophic loss event” in natGas – ZH
The whole fracking industry will go dark eventually.
11/18 Passive investing madness: 50,000 stocks vs 3.7 million indexes – Mish
The algos will blow that up in a million ways.

Germany and Japan are occupied territory, make no mistake.
"According to official information provided by the Department of Defense (DoD) and its Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) there are still about 40,000 US troops, and 179 US bases in Germany, over 50,000 troops in Japan (and 109 bases), and tens of thousands of troops, with hundreds of bases, all over Europe."
Germany is rightly getting very tired of this.
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:53 AM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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Dying FAANGS,,,downgraded bonds

Many institutional investors are forbidden by their charter from investing in stocks and bonds that are not rated investment grade. Typically, they must sell these assets when they get downgraded. There is a level of bonds just above "junk" rating that are still considered investment grade. 93% of stock market gains are due just to FED printing. The FED is now doing a "double tightening". They stopped QE,,, and shrank their portfolio.
The stock market lost more than $2 trillion in October - CNBC.com

The darlings of the stock market were the FAANGS. Facebook, Apple, Netflix, et al.
11/19 Netflix’s ‘death cross’ is the third for FAANG stocks; Nasdaq is next – MW
11/19 Dow closes down nearly 400 points as tech losses batter stock market – MW

As stocks fall, there will be a HUGE margin call for investors to pony up money. The other problem is that, many stocks will fall OUT of investment grade ratings..

"the threat to the credit market that is the downgrade of over a $1 trillion in BBB-rated investment grade bonds - most extensively in "The Next Bond Crisis: Over $1 Trillion In Bonds Risk Cut To Junk Once Cycle Turns" - with recent sharp moves wider by GE, PG&E and Ford bonds confirming that the credit market is starting to crack,"
"credit could soon blow up financial markets due to (amongst other things) the weight of US BBBs about to swamp the HY market, record levels of Cov-lite issuance and due to record high US corporate leverage."

11/19 Oil prices fall as Russia maintains wait-and-see approach to output cuts – CNBC
Yep, if Russia refuses to cut production, the continuing fall of oil will be very bad for the banks.
11/19 Brace for corporate defaults as Chinese firms are ‘under increasing pressure’ – CNBC
The Chinese business model was growth, NOT profit. The shrinking population and shrinking marketplace won't allow growth.

Here is a long vid talking about all points of the coming collapse.
There are dozens of black swans circling and one of them is going to go SPLAT!
BREXIT is looking particularly nasty.
" The total volume of Non-Performing Loans across the European Union is still at around EUR 900 billion, well above pre-crisis levels," \
"2018 was the year of the perfect combination to drive banks shares higher: Confidence in the eurozone, the likelihood of rate hikes, improvement of fundamentals and earnings growth. None of it happened."
Italy looks like it will ignore the dictats out of Brussels.
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:33 PM
Danny B Danny B is online now
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rollover in confidence AND markets.

Armstrong announced that today is a important Pi target. There are LOTS of candidates for major reversals.

Markets have crashed,,,, confidence is still high but,,,, you know how that goes.

The darling FAANG stocks have lost between 40% and 20%. Do NOT worry,,, buy the dip.
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