Economic pressures

[Danny B]

Fulford and the battle for Planet Earth

One ring to find them,, one ring to bind them.
Creating the "goddess". The super artificial intelligence.
"Representatives of an Asian secret society explained the goals of the new Goddess project to this writer earlier this summer. As it now exists, the Goddess can identify anybody’s face and within 7 seconds pull up all the data available on that person “such as their blood type.” The data also almost certainly includes (to those who are authorized access) the person’s educational records, medical records, criminal records (if any), their address, family members, close friends, insurance, private messages, financial situation, gaming duration, smart-home statistics, preferred newspapers, shopping history, dating behavior, their “social credit score,” etc. All of this within 7 seconds. They can also follow a person “anywhere on earth,” the sources say."

https://benjaminfulford.net/

[Danny B]

Of course, wars are NECESSARY,,,interest rates

There are many millions of people who suffer (and die) and chafe under the control of the Khazarian Mafia. The press and military establishment have it all under control. War spending must grow and go on forever. Trump demanded that the Germans spend tons more money for NATO if they are so worried about Russia invading. He pointed out that the Germans send many billions to Russia for oil. So, are the Russians an enemy that justifies a big army or, NOT.
Italian infrastructure is falling apart and crashing down. Trump asks; what is the justification of spending billions on armament when the country is disintegrating.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...e-too-far.html
Putin is doing his part. No matter how much provocation is piled on Russia, he refuses to respond belligerently.
Kim and Moon are trying to do their parts and end the state of war.
North Korea, South Korea and the U.S. Role in Delaying Peace | Time
time.com › History › Opinion
4 days ago - How the U.S. Helped Prevent North Korea and South Korea From declaring peace.

The one thread that you see constantly is; NO spending on infrastructure. lavish spending on "defense". In spite of the presence of NATO, "they" are pushing for a European army.
Peace must be avoided at all costs, The Report From Iron Mountain.
Trump, Putin, Xi and many others are trying to pull the world OUT of a constant war mentality and, into a mentality that does NOT include HUGE expenditures for arms. The army is still a convenient place to stash all the young males who would be shiftless and problematic in the general society. The huge arms budgets are an entirely different story.

The debt is growing faster than exponentially and, a spending solution will be forced on the world before long. NONE of this is something new. Our Bretton Woods credit card has managed to carry us along far longer than thought possible. Just the same, belligerent empires go bust.
"In reality, the United States and its Western European allies are now discovering the hard way the same lesson that drained and exhausted the Soviet Union from the creation of the Warsaw Pact in 1955 to its dissolution 36 years later. The tier of Central European nations has always lacked the coherence, the industrial base and the combined economic infrastructure to generate significant industrial, financial or most of all strategic and military power."

"Far from strengthening the Soviet Union, those nations weakened and distracted it. Today, NATO is repeating the Soviet Mistake and that fatal move is inexorably draining the alliance of all its strength and credibility."
https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...rsaw-pact.html

"The New York Times also played an outsized role in another event that has cost America dearly in trillions of dollars of fiscal spending and an economy that has experienced subpar economic growth for a decade.
We’re speaking of the New York Times editorial page’s incessant cheerleading for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act – the 1933 Banking Act "
"banks holding Federally-insured deposits from the casino investment banks on Wall Street. The Glass-Steagall Act had kept the U.S. financial system safe for 66 years until its repeal in 1999 – at the urging of the New York Times and Wall Street lobbyists. Just nine years after its repeal, the U.S. financial system collapsed, producing the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, including the loss of millions of jobs and millions of homes to foreclosure."

Keep in mind that "we" got the FED in 1913. By 1929, the economy collapsed. The FED is a creature owned by the banks. It will always work to preserve the banks.
"In the leadup to the bogus U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, it was the New York Times using its bullhorn to cheer on the attack. As media watchdog Media Matters’ Eric Boehlert wrote in 2014:"
U.S. Media’s Use of Its Collective Voice Reveals a Tragic Truth about America
Arthur Gregg (A.G.) Sulzberger is the front man for the Khazarian Mafia in NYC.
Much of the rest of the article is pure BS.

Way back when, money had intrinsic value. You loaned money and had to forego consumption to do so. Interest was the reward that you earned for risk and lack of consumption. When money is created by the peta-pixels, does anyone forgo consumption? Is there truly any risk if you can just conjure up boatloads more money. The whole family of ZIRP, NIRP, QE and QT distorts the cost of money. What should interest rates be?
Well, we are at a 5,000 year low for interest rates AND a bubble beyond anything ever seen before.

"Yet despite the false leads and dead ends, Sylla believes he’s penetrated the mysteries of interest rate cycles throughout history:

“It seems like there is a U-shaped cycle for each civilization.”
Beginning at the top left of the “U,” interest rates begin a downward cycle.
Critically, Sylla’s research shows that as interest rates fall… civilizations rise.
Civilizations crest as interest rates near the bottom of the “U.”
These civilizational heights bring heroic deeds… great achievements… and golden ages."
"The higher a people’s intelligence and moral strength, the lower the rate of interest."
Ah yes, morality & business
"Rates start rising off the bottom of the “U,” up the right side of the slope.
The burden of accumulated debt rises with them.
The added weight throws chains upon civilization… the flame of achievement flickers… and it finally fades.
In this manner, each civilization Sylla studied “declined and fell.”
The message, clear as gin:
Civilization rises with falling interest rates. Fattened by debt… civilization falls with rising interest rates."
The bankers move in and try to squeeze out more wealth than the underlying economy can pay.
https://dailyreckoning.com/interest-...-civilization/

[Danny B]

sovereign debt Kabuki theater

8/18 S&P cuts Turkey credit rating deeper into junk territory – CNBC
All the big funds are required to follow the ratings agencies. If something is rated too low, they must sell. The plug gets pulled and, it is a self-reinforcing trip down the credit drain.
Of course, fallout is to be expected.
8/18 Turkish tremors will cause shocks in Britain – Times
8/18 Venezuela launches crypto-pegged forex rate, devaluing by 96 percent – GATA
That's not much of a peg.

"Large companies dedicated 93% of their earnings to shareholders between 2007 and 2016 – a shift from the early 1980s, when they sent less than half their revenue to shareholders and spent the rest on employees"
Elizabeth Warren wants to force companies to raise wages by law.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...hest-companies
Thierry Meyssan wants the State to seize transnational companies.
Seize the transnational corporations to rebuild Syria?
I just don't have faith in either idea.

So investors have abandoned the sovereign debt of several States, Turkey, Greece, Argentina, Poland, Italy, et al.
REPORTEDLY, investors are buying up U.S. debt.

Japan and China are cutting way back. China MUST keep some U.S. debt so that they can sell dollars and buy Yuan if the Yuan is attacked.
https://www.rt.com/business/436193-j...-debt-dumping/
"According to the Institute of International Finance’s latest Global Debt Monitor, the amount of debt held in the world rose by the biggest amount in two years during the first quarter of 2018. It grew by $8 trillion to hit a new all-time high of $247 trillion"
“It is all about taking money from us and transferring it into government pockets. And then, taking money from government pockets, and transferring it into the hands of the elite. It’s a game that’s been going on for generations"

"But over the same period, the US gross national debt, fired up by a stupendous spending binge, soared by a breath-taking $1.36 trillion. So who bought this $1.36 trillion in new debt?"
"the holdings of China and Japan have edged down. At the end of 2015, their combined holdings amounted to nearly 13% of the total US debt. By the end of June, this was down to 10.4% (green line), with Japan’s holdings (blue line) now down to 4.9% of total US government debt, and China’s stash (red line) down to 5.6%:"
Perhaps not so ironically: Of the 12 largest holders of US Treasuries, after China and Japan, seven are tax havens for foreign corporate and/or individual entities (bold):

Brazil: $300 billion
Ireland: $300 billion
UK (“City of London”): $274 billion
Switzerland: $236 billion
Luxembourg: $220 billion
Cayman Islands: $197 billion… down from $250 billion in April 2017!
Hong Kong: $192 billion
Saudi Arabia: $165 billion
Taiwan: $163 billion
Belgium: $155 billion
India: $147 billion
Singapore: $122 billion

"By the end of June, the US gross national debt had reached $21.21 trillion, up $1.36 trillion from June last year"
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/15/wh...ast-12-months/
Since the capital inflows are all just pixels, the Treasury can report ANY amount of inflows that it wants. America is attracting global capital because of the apparent health of U.S. sovereign debt. I seriously doubt that the reported capital inflows are legitimate.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...C0%2C0%2C0%2C1

Armstrong claims that real estate will make it through the reset. This isn't a very smart claim. Other than the house that you live in, all RE is worth as much as somebody else will pay for it.
"The crisis that unfolds is the collapse in the mortgage market. Then we will see a deleveraging of real estate. However, that said, real estate makes the transition as a hedge during a reset. For example, during the German hyperinflation that led to a currency reset, that new currency that was issued was backed by real estate – not gold. Keep in mind that as the currency declines, then the repayment cost of a mortgage declines. On the one hand, mortgages will be unavailable"
What is the value of your vacation home if nobody can get a mortgage?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-to-the-reset/

"Britain has NEVER benefited from the EU. Your economic growth has declined ever since joining back in 1973"
"the computer pinpointed the crisis in the Euro would begin during the 3rd quarter here in 2018 where we had both a Directional Change and the beginning of a Panic Cycle."
"Note that there is a turning point showing up in the 1st quarter next year but the big one will be the 3rd quarter 2019."
"As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53, but that does not seem likely absent war in Europe."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rvative-split/

"The Turkish Minister of Finance Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, is trying to assure foreign investors that he will implement strict fiscal discipline and structural reforms. He has come up with a new slogan saying that Turkey will “emerge even stronger” from the crisis. There are almost 4,000 investors in Turkey who have lost a fortune based on the currency alone"
"What Erdogan fails to see is that the collapse in the currency is not simply black and white numbers. This is a collapse in confidence in him personally."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...re-his-people/
Erdogan has no friends and, too many people read Armstrong.

[Danny B]

Still trying to save the un-savable

Armstrong's program predicted an upturn in earthquakes beginning on the 20th. He was off.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-more-to-come/
The models at Suspicious Observers also predicted it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLvp7zXzXno&t=252s

Low wages and automation have wiped out earning power and discretionary spending. With global low wages, there is little to be skimmed off for the State and the banks. The price of everything should have fallen until it was commensurate with earning power. The knee-jerk response was to print new money to make up for the money that was not circulating. The lack of circulation was in the lower loop while the infusion of new money went into the upper loop. While they could claim that this is one big grand experiment, it has never worked when tried previously.

"After 10 years of near-constant central bank interventions to prop up markets and make stocks, bonds and real estate rise in price. This is known as the “central bank put”: whenever the markets begin to teeter, the central banks will step in to prop/nudge/cajole the markets back towards the “correct” direction, which is always: Up!"
"The 2008 crisis really spooked them. Hence their massive money printing spree to "rescue" the system.

But instead of admitting that Great Financial Crisis was the logical result of flawed policies implemented after the 2000 Dot-Com crash (which, in turn, was the result of flawed policies pursued in the 1990’s), the central banks decided after 2008 to double down on their bets -- implementing even worse policies."
"It’s not hyperbole to say that the monetary experiment conducted over the past ten years by the world’s leading central banks (and its resulting social and political ramifications) is the largest-ever in human history:"
"The list of central bank-induced injustices is long. It reads like the rap sheet of a virulent psychopath: $trillions looted from savers and handed to the big banks and leveraged speculators, ruined pensions, shattered retirement dreams for millions, record amounts of debt in every corner of the global economy, and an increasingly unaffordable cost of living for everyone but the elite 1%."

"the central banks ramped up their wanton ways in the years since the GFC. Did you know that their largest-ever printing spree happened over the past two years? (2016 to 2017)"
Ah yes,,, losing ground.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...-human-history

"Opening up Italy’s markets and lowering taxpayers’ burdens is the path to sustainable, organic growth, but that is not the purpose of IMF-style austerity. It’s purpose is to do exactly what it is doing, strangling Italy to death and extracting the wealth and spirit out of the local population, c.f. Greece and before that Russia in the 1990’s."

"Italian banks have begun buying Italian sovereign debt in what is known as the Debt Doom Loop —"
"This vicious circle of Country X banks (in this case Italy) buying Country X bonds during times of stress – with the backstop of the ECB – has for years been Europe’s dreaded sovereign bank doom loop. And, as Italy clearly demonstrated, repeated and aggressive attempts by European regulators and policymakers to finally break the doom loop, most recently with the introduction of the 2014 BRRD directive, which sought which sought to remove the need for and possibility of bank bailouts, and instead ushered in bail ins, have been an abject failure."

"Moreover, this weakness has spread to the euro, which has broken down below strong support at $1.15 and is now looking at $1.10 or lower."
Armstrong, "As far as price against the dollar, there is support technically in the 92 area. The very worst support is at 53"
https://tomluongo.me/2018/08/16/italian-default-menu/

"The renminbi has now declined 8.7% from March 30th trading highs "
" New yuan loans stood at 1.45 trillion yuan, versus a projected 1.275 trillion yuan and 1.84 trillion yuan the previous month. Broad M2 money supply rose 8.5%,"
Could there be a connection?
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...stability.html

8/19 US debt so high interest payments are forming a “black hole” – Birch Gold
No problem,,, as long as the FED reports that the CIA money-laundering havens are still buying U.S. bonds.

[Danny B]

What are you doing in 2020?

"The turning point, according to the computer model, which was verified at the time by Australia's largest computer, is the year 2020. "At around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes highly critical," ABC said. After that, a precipitous drop in quality of life is predicted."

https://sputniknews.com/society/2018...17-63665&ues=1

"We were on a gold standard at the time, so he (FDR) had to confiscate gold to devalue the dollar. We’re not on a gold standard today, so they’re not going to go around confiscating gold and knocking on people’s doors."
"So, it’s a question of confidence and only when you start seeing the governments crack, when you start seeing Europe crack, etc., then you’re going to see the rise in gold,"
"What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades."
"The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ny-place-safe/

"everything we've seen since October is more or less a crash and burn in the confidence in government. If you go back 8.6 years from that, it takes you right to the day with the peak in the Shiller real estate index...1989 was the peak in Japan, 1981 was the peak in interest rates at 17% and so each business cycle happens to be something else. I would say humanity simply wants to speculate or concentrate and whatever happens to be the fad for that particular time is where they go...and this last one is government. So we are in a crash and burn basically into 2020.”
https://www.financialsense.com/contr...forty-thousand

[Danny B]

Turmoil and haircuts

Armstrong warned that U.S. sovereign debt will collapse LAST. Somebody did not get the memo.
"Noting the “massive increase” in short positions against 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets, he warned in a Twitter posting that Treasury bond shorts are the "highest in history, by far,"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...mment-12223463
TOO EARLY.

8/20 David Stockman: ‘Unhinged White House’ to cause stock market crash – CNBC
Sadly, Stockman is ignoring foreign capital inflows.
8/20 Nomura: Equity funds in “multi-month performance disaster” – Zero Hedge
I never said that equities were perfect. It’s just that bonds look so much worse.
8/20 China ‘colonising’ smaller countries by lending them money they can never repay – Sun
8/20 Turkey crisis rattles Asian nations with rising Belt and Road debts – Nikkei
Whatever works.
8/20 Global turmoil shows the US is still the safest place for your money – CNBC
As long as people continue to believe that legitimate investors are buying U.S. treasury bonds.
8/19 Venezuela in chaos after Maduro announces 95% devaluation – ZH
8/20 Ecuador tightens entry rules for Venezuelan migrants – BBC
So sad.
8/20 JP Morgan cuts Tesla price target to 195 in scathing report – Zero Hedge That is going to leave a mark.

Armstrong on haircuts.
"We are also witnessing this at the municipal level in Germany where about 50% of municipal governments are effectively bankrupt"
"So when we look at the indebtedness of even Emerging Markets, keep in mind that the loser will be the lender – not the borrower"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...or-the-lender/
So, all the millions of people and entities who loaned money to GOV will find their investments near worthless. THEY will stop spending money.

Merkel continues down the road to destruction.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ance-minister/

[Danny B]

War debt,,, gold

The U.S. debt is about equal to the missing money from the Pentagon,,, $21 trillion. Jack Ma (alibaba) said that America was in huge debt because of all the wars. It's hard to argue with that and now, Netanayahooo is trying to get us in another war over gas pipelines.
Immigration, Globalization, Political Correctness: The Jewish Elites Attack On The Western World: The Two Jewish-led Globalist Camps... In Competition For Global Control
At the same time, we are told that America is broke because of all the generous promises made by politicians.

8/21 Russia adds another 25 tons of gold to reserves in July – Smaulgld
8/21 As Iran turns to Bitcoin, maybe it’s time to build another Stuxnet – The Hill
Yeah, that would be real smart. When it gets out in the wild, nothing would be safe.

Gold,
"The Large Speculator (hedge funds, managed money, trading funds) NET position is now SHORT 3,688 contracts. This is the first reported NET short position for this group since December of 2001.
The Large Speculator GROSS short position is 215,467 contracts. This is a new ALLTIME high."
"hus, with a GROSS position of 215,467 contracts, the Large Speculator category is short 21,546,700 ounces or about 670 metric tonnes."
"The Commercial Banks have positioned themselves to profit handsomely from any combination of a lower dollar, higher gold prices, lower interest rates and/or a crashing stock market."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-do-banks-know

Too many people, especially Germans, have this stupid belief that the quantity of money controls the markets. Merkel is deathly afraid of hyperinflation. She demands austerity. She destroyed Greece. Now, she intends to destroy Italy with austerity.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...h-brussels-eu/
"The Great Depression was not reversed until they stopped Austerity which only benefits the bondholders – not the people. To sell their debt, they presume they need austerity so bondholders get back the fair value of what they lent. That has never happened anyway."

[Danny B]

Alternative to SWIFT,,,Chinese dragon has arthritis

Germany has a $1 trillion account surplus. The rest of Europe has a $1 trillion deficit. The Germans are getting very nervous because, even though SWIFT is based in Brussels, it is under quite a bit of control of America. EVERYONE wants to escape the dollar,,,, mostly because of the politicians. Germany is calling for a new global settlement mechanism that does NOT include America. I can't say that I blame them.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...independent-us

Keep in mind that China, et al have an independent system already.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-...ayments_System
SWIFT is just a payment and clearing system, NOT an investment.
"The average daily value of payment messages on SWIFT is estimated to be above €6 trillion"
It makes sense to use CIPS when the East is dealing with the East.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...-swift-system/

There is also a widely used banking identification system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...Account_Number
All of this depends on perception.
Everybody believes that there are legitimate buyers of American treasury bonds. This is highly doubtful. Belgium is reported as buying billions. Last time that Belgium was reported to be buying U.S,. bonds, it didn't have ANY U.S. dollars with which to buy them. The the tax havens are buying them. That would be mostly C.I.A. and who knows if the sales are even legitimate.
So, the dollar goes up.
Super Mario Draghi was the only buyer of State debt of many EU States. So, that is out in the open.
The BOJ is buying all the state debt AND TONS of stocks. That is out in the open.
" New yuan loans stood at 1.45 trillion yuan, versus a projected 1.275 trillion yuan and 1.84 trillion yuan the previous month. Broad M2 money supply rose 8.5%,"
How can the Yuan be perceived as a competitor to the dollar if China prints bazillions AND, the FED prints almost nothing?
The FED doesn't need to print because investors loan it money by the truckload. The U.S. dollar is the best currency because,,, it is perceived as being the safest currency.
8/23 Malaysia cancels two big Chinese projects, fearing they’ll bankrupt the country – WaPo

The better the dollar looks, the sooner that offshore dollar-denominated debt crashes.
A new reference for judging the stock market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...895-2018-08-21
China pumped out bazillions of Yuan to get the Belt & Road initiatve rolling. Now, it is finding that unlimited credit creation to help out numerous States is getting too expensive.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/opini...ina#gs.gTexyKQ

All the major Central banks appear to be tightening. The graphs on this page are very good but, they are blurred. You have to open them in another tab.
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EmL2DRWecL5mw/

A case of cause & effect.
Unions were created to protect the working man. Unfortunately, they protect him whether he is bad or good at work. The pipe fitters union is known for having a lot of druggies and deadbeats. Some of them do terrible work. Stick welding pipeline takes a lot of concentration. Protesters blocked the Keystone pipeline construction because the contracted company had a TERRIBLE record of faulty pipelines.
The Alaskan pipeline had to have major sections dug up and repaired because the X-ray QC people faked a lot of inspections. 1100 welds were bad. 36 of them could not be repaired and had to have a section cut out. These welds were buried and under rivers etc.
Keep in mind that 50% of the welds were done by sub-arc in Valdez.

So, America pipeline welders have a terrible reputation. The Pacific Northwest needs crude oil but, the governors refuse to have American pipefitters build a pipeline across their State. Driven by this, Washington and Oregon must import Russian oil.
https://business.financialpost.com/o...ific-northwest

8/23 Fed says more interest rate increases coming – NYT
We get to find where the death cross comes in. Reportedly at about 3.25--3.50%
8/23 Italian gov’t bond sell-off limits room for populist spending programs – FS Italian bonds are selling off AND Draghi says that he won't be buying any more after the end of the year. The new populist GOV is going to be in quite a squeeze.
8/23 Standards go out the window as employers struggle to fill jobs – SafeHaven
10,000 boomers retire every day and, the skills gap gets worse.
8/22 Longest bull market ever will be followed by record breaking bear – Mish
8/22 UK household debt balloons to new record – Independent
You Brits are not doing very well.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-life-syndrome
"More men in the UK have died by suicide in the past year than all British soldiers fighting in all wars since 1945."
https://www.newsweek.com/2015/02/20/...en-305913.html

Glyco-phosphate has contaminated 20,000 sq. miles of America farmland. Now it seems that we are going to finish off the job with Fracking.
https://thinkprogress.org/fracking-i...-9cb163923d24/

[Danny B]

Coca & Roundup,,,Saudi Arabia,,, Skills gap

Colombia Is Testing Drones to Drop Herbicide on Crops Used for Cocaine
https://gizmodo.com/colombia-is-test...s-u-1828500374
"Under newly elected President Iván Duque, Colombia is testing remote-controlled drones designed to track and destroy coca, the crop used in cocaine production. The government has reportedly tested ten drones so far. The drones carry payloads of glyphosate,"

Colombia never seems to be able to eradicate the coca. That is because it is all run by the CIA. The State dept brings herbicide to the airport at the coastal "city" of Tumaco in unmarked grey planes. One inch letters under the pilot's window tell you who the plane belongs to. The drums are unloaded and stacked off to the side. I've been there and seen all this myself.
So, the local "Arcos" must petition the CIA to avoid spraying. They must pay up and, pay a LOT. Anybody who refuses to pay gets their crop sprayed. There is also a military base in Tumaco and I’ve spoken to them. They aren't very effective because they get blocked by the big money interests. I'm guessing that the Colombian GOV wants to take coca spraying out of the hands of the CIA.

Saudi Arabia was in the process of selling a 10% stake in their national oil company. Nobody was much impressed with the IPO and, it has melted away into the desert sands.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...bands-advisors
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...oke-house-saud
https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/g...gely-depleted/

The Central Banks have rescued the upper loop of the economy. The lower loop is supposed to get by on trickle-down. It just isn't trickling fast enough and, the defaults are picking up/
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...report-reveals

Each successive Industrial Revolution reduces the need for human labor. At what point does this become a recognised problem?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rth-industrial


8/23 Standards go out the window as employers struggle to fill jobs – SafeHaven
10,000 Baby Boomers Reach Retirement Every Day
Boomers Are Retiring Rapidly: Are Successors Prepared? - Forbes
"The majority of baby boomers support their adult children
According to a survey from the National Endowment for Financial Education, 59% of baby boomers who are parents are financially supporting their children ages 18-39.
45% of baby boomers report having no retirement savings whatsoever."

[Danny B]

Slide in consumption,,, Amazon to replace the banks

So, the view count has passed 250,000
I suspect that it is mostly from non-members. All the government wonks who are wondering how much longer they are going to collect a paycheck.
For all you wonks who do not understand economics and energy; energy is the master resource. If we can't accomplish price deflation in energy, all prices will continue to rise. Price inflation always outruns wage inflation so, consumption will continue to shrink. This is temporarily papered over by money printing / debt creation. China has set a ceiling on global wages in many sectors. Automation has much the same effect.

"Since all the global 0 to 64 year old population growth is among the lower middle and low income nations of the world, a closer look at their situation is merited. In short, it ain't good. After rocketing higher from 2002 until 2014, the situation is really deteriorating as the growth of the high and upper middle breaks down...without the growing wealthier markets to export to or in need of greater capacity in low cost countries, the engine is stalling in the poorer nations of the world."

China appeared on the scene as a flash-in-the-pan that prompted a lot of consumption from low prices. BUT, after they had gutted the wages of their best customers, it all came crashing down. Credit / debt growth in China was beyond all rationality because the Chinese are such avid gamblers.

"The high income nations represent 64% of global income and the upper middle income nations another 27% while the lower middle and low income nations represent less than 9%, combined. Not coincidentally, these breakdowns of global income, per group, line up very closely with the percentage of global energy consumed "
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/...f-secular.html

As the higher-income nations slide down in consumptive ability, they reduce their birth rate. A new awareness in China and Asia is reducing the birth rate. This "new awareness" hasn't appeared in the stupid nations. Falling birth rates and the demographic crash are incompatible with growth of the debt bubble. Everything is being papered over for the short term.

U.S. bank profits have hit a new record.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-60-billion-q2
"as we reported yesterday, there has been a sudden collapse in loan demand, reflecting rising interest rates even as banks loosened loan standards"

"The US credit card system siphons off excessive amounts of money from merchants, who must raise their prices to cover this charge. In a typical $100 credit card purchase, only $97.25 goes to the seller. The rest goes to banks and processors."
"The nightmare for the US financial industry is that a major technology company – whether one from China or a US giant such as Amazon or Facebook – might replicate the success of the Chinese mobile payment systems, cutting banks out."
"China processed a whopping $12.8 trillion in mobile payments in the first ten months of 2017." "More than 90 percent of Chinese mobile payments are run through Alipay and WeChat Pay, rival platforms backed by the country’s two largest internet conglomerates, Alibaba and Tencent Holdings."
"Alipay is free for smaller users of its platform. As total monthly transactions rise, so does the charge; but even at its maximum, it’s less than half what PayPal charges — around 1.2 percent. "
https://ellenbrown.com/2018/08/23/ho...anks-obsolete/

MANDATED BENEFITS
"The SF Chronicle casually notes in parenthesis, "By the way, the poop patrolers earn $71,760 a year, which swells to $184,678 with mandated benefits."
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rs-make-185000
8/24 Italy capital flight is highest two months ever – Mish
Finance doesn't like the new lefties..
8/24 China spending push buoys debt sales, calls for new liquidity – Bloomberg China needs new liquidity to feed the tiger,,,,, so that the tiger doesn't eat the rider.
8/24 Loan demand suddenly tumbles as companies revolt to rising rates – Talk Markets
Wait, what about all the debt that the MUST roll-over?

8/23 China’s July grain imports plunge as tariffs on U.S. supplies bite – Reuters
Russia Is Exporting More Wheat Than Any Country in 25 Years ...
8/23 China again promises not to start currency war – Bloomberg That is AFTER they increased the money supply by 8.6%
8/24 Saudi economic war triggers Yemeni currency collapse – Mint Press Soon to be followed by a Saudi currency collapse.

Western banks will naturally attack Russia when the time seems right. Russia is moving to block that.
https://www.rt.com/business/436647-g...russia-limits/

[Danny B]

Yield curve and refi of junk

8/24 Fed Chair Powell: further rate hikes best way to protect recovery – Reuters
And what a FINE recovery it is. Powell is pedal-to-the-metal on rate hikes. DAMN THE TORPEDOES, FULL SPEED AHEAD. Ah, those torpedoes,,,,
I found some comments that I can not corroborate.
"As pointed out yesterday by Simon Black via the Wall Street journal 60% of all Russell 2k corporations carry junk bonds status.
Another 37% carry a BBB bond rating."

"That's right people 97% of all Russell 2k corporations have the lowest investment grade rating or junk.
Combine the above with the fact that I think around 40% of R2K companies are not even cash flow positive."

Whatever the reason, nobody wants bonds.
Bond spread, "And the 2s10s spread is now in the teens for the first time since Aug 2007..." Why does that date ring a bell? Here is a chart of the spread between 10 year and 2 year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...24_8-12-57.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/comment/12248039


8/24 Loan demand suddenly tumbles as companies revolt to rising rates – Talk Markets
So, they refuse to refi but, they need to roll over junk-rated debt.

Yield-curve inversion isn't an infallible predictor of a crash but, it has been pretty accurate.

8/24 New reality of China’s failing economy is coming soon – Jim Rickards
China Inc. is an export driven economy. The shrinkage of the middle class around the world is death to their models. As the global mean wage bites deeper, they will have to print more and more . This brings them more capital outflow AND, they have to print more.

[Danny B]

Powell's big bet,,, curve inversion,,, Turkey

The focus right now is; rising U.S. interest rates and, falling everything else. Bernanke conducted a huge experiment to see if mammoth money printing could stave off a recession. Powell now has an experiment of his own. Raising rates will wipe out American corporate debt service. Raising rates will wipe out emerging market currencies. Raising rates attracts capital to America. What will be the balance point?
Rising rates are a direct attack on European banks. Bond buyers are in the driver's seat. The ECB is screwed when it comes to buying bonds. They have to do it out in the open.
The U.S. treasury can depend on the PPT, ESF and CIA. The FED has visibly bowed out of the market, to create confidence. After all, if private investors have confidence in U.S. bonds, then, everybody else should have confidence.

Emerging markets desperately need dollars to service dollar-denominated loans.
"the total dollar denominated debt is 11 trillion outside of the U.S., and that's up 83% since 2009. And one-third of that is owned by emerging markets."
"There's an increase of $70 trillion worth of global debt since 2007. That's an increase of over 40% and it all hinges on one thing, Mike. It all hinges on the fact that interest rates can never be allowed to rise much above zero, for if they did the entire artificial edifice comes crashing down."
Ah yes, but, where does it crash first? Powell is making big bets on this.

"the spread between the 10-year note and the two-year note is just 22 basis points. That is by far the lowest it's ever been outside of the great recession. And the reason is very simple why we're concerned about this. Nine of the last ten times this has occurred since WWII, the economy entered into a very steep recession,"
"The yield curve is inverting as it always does because the Fed is raising short term interest rates. But here's the question, why is it that the long term interest rates across the world are falling still, if we are in a global synchronized boom or recovery as the carnival barkers like to call it? I mean, why is the 10-year note now well below 3%? It's just about 2.83% today? Why are the long-term bond yields falling in the spectrum of global growth"

"They'll go in September, they'll probably go in December. That's my best guess. Then the long bond will retreat back towards where it was in 2016, about 1.4%, and the yield curve will be very, very inverted, steeply inverted. And what happens when the yield curve inverts? Why is important? It's a good question that you asked. It's because the credit channel gets shut off. That liquidity pump gets turned off. "

Corporate America desperately needs dollars to roll over debt. Emerging markets desperately need dollars to service debt. Will the 2 blow sequentially OR, at the same time?
"people are talking about the stock market being cheap because it's only 17 times next year's earnings." "corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is at a record high, and the corporations took on this debt to buy back shares."
"The Fed has no choice, as I mentioned, the year on year rate of consumer price inflation is up 2.9%. Now, that's even way above the Fed's fatuous 2% target. So, the Fed has no choice but to react or they risk a spike in long-term borrowing race, which is the last thing they need. Now, a spike in rates would mean to the yield curve didn't invert, but it would also mean that the housing market, which is on life support, is going to roll over big time."
"the market cap of equities as a percentage of GDP is 145%. Now, it was 110% in 2007 and that ties the record set back in March of 2000, the 145%."
"China had two major credit waves since 2007. They had a huge one in 2008, another one in 2015 and 2016. They now have the most destabilizing credit bubble in the history of the planet earth. And they're sitting on a $30 trillion in debt. That debt is up 56% in the last five years. "
Pento: Trade War to Continue, Global Debt Default and Higher Interest Rates Unavoidable

8/26 Global liquidity is drying up! – Daily Reckoning It will get worse.
8/27 Another inflation gauge is set to enter the red zone – MarketWatch So, will Powell do the planned rate hikes to head off price inflation?
8/27 Powell doctrine emerges as Fed chief debuts at Jackson Hole – Bloomberg
8/27 China’s growth woes aren’t going a way – Bloomberg
8/27 Are emerging markets ready for a crisis? – Bloomberg
Stay tuned for further developments.

8/27 Latest freight data confirms alarming slowdown in global trade – TM
8/27 BIS warns of perfect storm for global economy – Zero Hedge
8/27 US, Mexico may announce NAFTA deal as soon as Monday – TM
Mexico gets a big screw job from American agriculture. Mexico isn't price competitive because American farmers get $ 20 billion in subsidies. Don't call this a tariff?
The FED sent over $8 trillion to European banks in response to the 2008 crash. That was the Bernanke-bet that he could fix everything by pumping in liquidity. The French government spends 57% of the GDP. THAT is called socialism. No amount of money can fix socialism.
https://qz.com/1362101/the-2008-fina...-really-ended/
What is true in France is also true in Illinois.
8/27 Illinois, already broke, set to borrow even more – Mish

8/23 How Turkey’s lira crisis was written in Istanbul’s skyline – Guardian
Yep, Erdogan spent to much buying votes and building the second Ottoman empire.
"After decades of near-100% annual inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey knocked six zeros off the lira on 1 January 2005, making one new lira worth $0.74. Today it is only $0.15, having lost nearly half its purchasing power this year alone."
"Indeed, loss of confidence in unbacked currencies is the greatest threat to their credibility, a fact which almost all governments and their central banks are reluctant to accept. Central bankers are all trained in mathematical economics, which allows no room for subjectivity in currency valuation, so when their currency is rejected, they are always surprised."
https://mises.org/wire/turkeys-crisi...dollars-future

[Danny B]

automation,,, ECB & Italy,,, saving the rich

"Today, more than 35% of Tunisian young people are unemployed, and many don’t see a future in their own country.
“The state isn’t giving us anything,” a 24-year-old mechanic in Al Ataya said, "
Sorry but, the State can't give you anything. Only the market can give you a job.
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/tunis...arket-implode/

"She warns that the business environment of the 2020s will be more volatile as automation may eliminate as many as 20 percent to 25 percent of current jobs—equivalent to 40 million displaced workers—and depress wage growth for many more workers."
"The robot consists of 20 computers, 350 sensors and 50 actuators that form a robotic assembly line. After the customer places an order with a human, the machine slices buns, tomatoes and onions, grills and grinds meat, adds condiments, sears buns and produces a gourmet hamburger in less than five minutes without any human intervention. "
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...-san-francisco
There is NO CURE for automation. When the credit collapse hits sovereign bonds, the government will collapse. The paper-pushers will not be in demand in the labor market.

The ECB is the only entity buying Italian bonds. They plan to stop this about the end of the year. The Italians want the ECB charter changed so that the ECB can buy bonds in perpetuity. This goes completely against German where they mistakenly believe the Quantity of Money theory. Armstrong has shown the theory to be BS. He has also shown that the theory of fixing everything with austerity is pure BS also. Will the Germans relent? Who knows?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...inside-the-eu/

Venezuela is following in the Zimbabwe model.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...y-devaluations
The world crash in 2008 was caused to a great degree by the slide down to a global mean wage. All the debt held by the working class had to be bailed out. The bailout consisted of pumping liquidity into the upper loop after the lower loop had crashed. Wages never recovered. The lower loop soldiered on by borrowing LOTS more money. Nothing was actually fixed for the lower loop.
https://qz.com/1362101/the-2008-fina...-really-ended/

OZ gets special mention for burning through a list of Prime Ministers very quickly.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...s-in-13-years/

[Danny B]

SWIFT alternatives,,,

BOE president, "Mark Carney’s saying “New World Order”, “New Financial System”, “Now Is The Time”, and “Great Change”. Let’s connect the dots…"
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...-system-reset/
Well, they haven't just been sitting around. Keep in mind that SWIFT is based in Brussels. The broad hints from Germany and Britain claim that America controls SWIFT to the detriment of Europe. I expect that the feds use SWIFT to punish Germany for Nordstream. The Europeans are presently creating an alternative to SWIFT to escape control.
https://www.rt.com/business/436921-g...ons-sanctions/

Add to this, the Russian system, MIR. The Chinese have their own system. ALL of these systems route $trillions away from passing through New York banks. I expect that the N.Y. banks will eventually go up in a cloud of smoke.
It's not just the NYC banks.
8/28 No-deal Brexit thrusts UK into ‘legal vacuum’, warns Keir Starmer – Guardian
The London banks want unrestricted access to European markets.

The instigator of all the Russian sanctions is an Israeli born woman. The sanctions are all part of the pipeline wars. BUT
8/28 EU looking to sidestep U.S. sanctions with payment system plan – GATA
8/28 Gal Luft: The anti-dollar awakening could be ruder and sooner than most think – GATA
8/28 Italy vows to veto EU budget over migrant clash – Zero Hedge
NOPE, they want unlimited bond purchases from the ECB. They don't want the music to ever stop.
8/28 Affordability of starter homes hits a decade low – MSN Priced out by hot-money flows.
8/27 ‘Boogeyman in housing market’ makes it tougher for Americans to own homes – BI
That boogeyman (pl) would be Greenspan, Bernanke, & Yellen

Obviously, politicians can not be trusted. I've made the claim that bonds will eventually be backed with gold and, migrate to the blockchain. There is a bit of a start in that direction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...in-backed-bond
Thejuicemedia has some great vids. here is "trickle down economics".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yzeOqV7eKI
8/28 Most young Americans are living on the edge financially – MarketWatch
8/28 Landscapers “reeling” from labor shortage – Zero Hedge
Apparently, millennials don't want to be landscapers.
Jim Willie has some articles. Dunno about aliens.
https://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/jim-willie/
Israel apparently holds final veto power on American ambassadorial appointments.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...us-ambassador/

[Danny B]

Ron Paul is always a clear voice.
"In the past seven years, Turkey’s central bank has tripled the money supply " "Turkish politicians have taken advantage of easy money policies to increase subsidies for key voting blocs and special interests."
"Turkey’s combination of low interest rates, money creation, and massive government spending to “stimulate” the economy parallels the policies the US government has pursued for the past ten years. "
"Instead of cutting spending or raising taxes, politicians can be expected to pressure the Federal Reserve to do their dirty work for them via inflation. "

"If we are lucky, the next Fed-caused downturn will cause only a resurgence of 1970s-style stagflation. The more likely scenario is the type of widespread economic chaos not seen in America since the Great Depression. The growth of cultural Marxism, the widespread entitlement mentality, and the willingness of partisans of various sides to use force against their political opponents suggests that this economic crisis will result in civil unrest that will be used to justify new crackdowns on individual liberty."
"First, prepare a plan to protect your family when the crisis occurs. Second, do all you can to spread the truth in hopes the liberty movement reaches critical mass so it can force Congress to make the changes necessary to avert disaster."
That ship has already sailed.
The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity : Turkey Now, America Later?

"Meanwhile, South Korea is pursuing good relations with the North regardless of US backtracking. Washington is reportedly considering sanctions on its South Korean ally if Seoul continues on a peace path with Pyongyang. "
The wars must go on no matter what.
"The neocons are not going to give up on their obsession with "regime change" in Syria. Over the weekend National Security Advisor John Bolton all but called for another "chemical attack" in Syria to justify what he promise would be a massive US strike on Damascus."
Striking Damascus is about the worst thing imaginable.

8/28 American companies are raising prices at a brisk pace – Bloomberg So, we stop spending.
The Yuan is gradually being brought in as a reserve currency.
https://qz.com/1180434/europes-centr...-chinese-yuan/