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How do you get off a tiger moving at warp seven?
Where to start? I can only simplify and condense matters to a certain point.
January 3, 2018 MFID will be rolled out.
Investors be warned: MiFID II and MiFIR could be the work of the devil himself | afr.com
Armstrong confirms that the bankers will continue to try to dominate the State. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/f...bank-analysis/
The too big to fail banks will use MFID to destroy their competition from the smaller banks.
"The weeks ahead may be most illuminating on this score. The debt ceiling suspension runs out on December 8, around the same time that the tax reform question will resolve one way or another. "
The Old Songs - Kunstler
What’s Wrong with the GOP Tax Cut Plan? Everything for OrdinaryAmericans
Analytics is getting far more accurate and precise. Fasanara has a graph that is more accurate the the Case-Schiller work.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...tybubble_0.JPG
"However, NIRP and ZIRP has created distortions in bond valuations that have left them extremely overvalued compared with history, meaning that the inevitable regression to the mean will likely take the form of a vicious selloff." They won't find any buyers.
The bond bubble, http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...5gdpbond_0.JPG
"China has a huge problem over indebtedness. It is said to be between 300% and 600% of GDP. GDP is $11 trillion. So it is a monumental credit bubble that could give troubles at any point. And if it gives troubles you can expect the whole world to listen carefully like it did in August of 2015 and January of 2016, and even more than that."
These 2 periods are when China tried to reduce liquidity injections. It remains to be see if XI can ever successfully pull that one off.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...eir-own-weight
Here is a more complex article.
"Macquarie Capital’s Viktor Shvets, who in this exclusive to ZH readers excerpt from his year-ahead preview, explains why central banks can no longer exit the “doomsday highway” as a result of a “dilemma from hell” which no longer has a practical, real-world resolution, "
"If the current reflation has strong private sector underpinnings, then not only would it be appropriate for CBs to withdraw liquidity and raise cost of capital,"
"any meaningful withdrawal of liquidity and attempts to raise cost of capital would be met by potentially violent dislocations of asset prices and rising volatility, in turn, causing contraction of aggregate demand and resurfacing of disinflationary pressures"
The CBs want and, intend to stop their liquidity injections. They hope
that the private sector will buy up their portfolio AND GOV bonds.
"we maintain that over the last three decades, investors have gradually moved from a world of scarcity and scale limitations, to a world of relative abundance and an almost unlimited scalability. "
Side note;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy
http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.co...-is-scary.html
"In the meantime, returns on conventional human inputs and conventional capital will continue eroding while return on social and digital capital will continue rising. This promises to further increase disinflationary pressures (as marginal cost of almost everything declines to zero),"
"As Paul Romer argued in his recent shot at his own profession. a significant chunk of macro-economic theories that were developed since 1930s need to be discarded. Included are concepts such as ‘macro economy as a system in equilibrium’, ‘efficient market hypothesis’, ‘great moderation’ ‘irrelevance of monetary policies’, ‘there are no secular or structural factors, it is all about aggregate demand’, ‘home ownership is good for the economy’, ‘individuals are profit-maximizing rational economic agents’, ‘compensation determines how hard people work’, ‘there are stable preferences for consumption vs saving’ etc."
Do you see any mention here about automation?
"Investors and CBs are facing a convergence of two hurricane systems (technology and over-financialization), that are largely unstoppable. Unless there is a miracle of robust private sector productivity recovery or unless public sector policies were to undergo a drastic change"
Productivity is extremely high Per worker There just aren't many workers. It is consumption that is lagging.
"We maintain that there are only two ‘tickets’ out of this jail. First (and the best) is a sudden and sustainable surge in private sector productivity"
How does this bonehead ignore that fact that there are no jobs?
"clearly any policy errors by central banks and China could easily cause a similar dislocation to what occurred in 2013 or late 2015/early 2016." Yep, get off the tiger and he eats you.
"One could ask, what prompted China to attempt a proper de-leveraging from late 2014 to early 2016, which was the key contributor to both collapse of commodity prices and global volatility?"
There is no saddle on the tiger and it will throw them eventually.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ell-dacing-cbs
Where to start? I can only simplify and condense matters to a certain point.
January 3, 2018 MFID will be rolled out.
Investors be warned: MiFID II and MiFIR could be the work of the devil himself | afr.com
Armstrong confirms that the bankers will continue to try to dominate the State. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/f...bank-analysis/
The too big to fail banks will use MFID to destroy their competition from the smaller banks.
"The weeks ahead may be most illuminating on this score. The debt ceiling suspension runs out on December 8, around the same time that the tax reform question will resolve one way or another. "
The Old Songs - Kunstler
What’s Wrong with the GOP Tax Cut Plan? Everything for OrdinaryAmericans
Analytics is getting far more accurate and precise. Fasanara has a graph that is more accurate the the Case-Schiller work.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...tybubble_0.JPG
"However, NIRP and ZIRP has created distortions in bond valuations that have left them extremely overvalued compared with history, meaning that the inevitable regression to the mean will likely take the form of a vicious selloff." They won't find any buyers.
The bond bubble, http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...5gdpbond_0.JPG
"China has a huge problem over indebtedness. It is said to be between 300% and 600% of GDP. GDP is $11 trillion. So it is a monumental credit bubble that could give troubles at any point. And if it gives troubles you can expect the whole world to listen carefully like it did in August of 2015 and January of 2016, and even more than that."
These 2 periods are when China tried to reduce liquidity injections. It remains to be see if XI can ever successfully pull that one off.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...eir-own-weight
Here is a more complex article.
"Macquarie Capital’s Viktor Shvets, who in this exclusive to ZH readers excerpt from his year-ahead preview, explains why central banks can no longer exit the “doomsday highway” as a result of a “dilemma from hell” which no longer has a practical, real-world resolution, "
"If the current reflation has strong private sector underpinnings, then not only would it be appropriate for CBs to withdraw liquidity and raise cost of capital,"
"any meaningful withdrawal of liquidity and attempts to raise cost of capital would be met by potentially violent dislocations of asset prices and rising volatility, in turn, causing contraction of aggregate demand and resurfacing of disinflationary pressures"
The CBs want and, intend to stop their liquidity injections. They hope
that the private sector will buy up their portfolio AND GOV bonds."we maintain that over the last three decades, investors have gradually moved from a world of scarcity and scale limitations, to a world of relative abundance and an almost unlimited scalability. "
Side note;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy
http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.co...-is-scary.html
"In the meantime, returns on conventional human inputs and conventional capital will continue eroding while return on social and digital capital will continue rising. This promises to further increase disinflationary pressures (as marginal cost of almost everything declines to zero),"
"As Paul Romer argued in his recent shot at his own profession. a significant chunk of macro-economic theories that were developed since 1930s need to be discarded. Included are concepts such as ‘macro economy as a system in equilibrium’, ‘efficient market hypothesis’, ‘great moderation’ ‘irrelevance of monetary policies’, ‘there are no secular or structural factors, it is all about aggregate demand’, ‘home ownership is good for the economy’, ‘individuals are profit-maximizing rational economic agents’, ‘compensation determines how hard people work’, ‘there are stable preferences for consumption vs saving’ etc."
Do you see any mention here about automation?
"Investors and CBs are facing a convergence of two hurricane systems (technology and over-financialization), that are largely unstoppable. Unless there is a miracle of robust private sector productivity recovery or unless public sector policies were to undergo a drastic change"
Productivity is extremely high Per worker There just aren't many workers. It is consumption that is lagging.
"We maintain that there are only two ‘tickets’ out of this jail. First (and the best) is a sudden and sustainable surge in private sector productivity"
How does this bonehead ignore that fact that there are no jobs?"clearly any policy errors by central banks and China could easily cause a similar dislocation to what occurred in 2013 or late 2015/early 2016." Yep, get off the tiger and he eats you.
"One could ask, what prompted China to attempt a proper de-leveraging from late 2014 to early 2016, which was the key contributor to both collapse of commodity prices and global volatility?"
There is no saddle on the tiger and it will throw them eventually.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ell-dacing-cbs
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