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  • Danny B
    153 'Left-Leaning' Economists Say US Should Continue To Hand Out Free Money Indefinitely
    US Budget Revenue Covered Just 173 Days of Its 2020 Spending

    There is much debate about just printing money to pay bills.
    "Globally, the IMF forecasts that general government budget deficits (ie where tax revenues fall short of government spending) will reach 10% of GDP in 2020, up from 3.7% in 2019.
    As a result, public sector debt levels are expected to exceed anything reached in the last 150 years – including after WW1 and WW2"
    Top economists like Rogoff and Reinhart argued that there was empirical evidence over centuries that showed when public debt ratios were above 90% of GDP, the probability of a financial crash was very high."
    The article goes on to talk all about public debt levels and, the inevitable crash. This falls flat if the new money is created debt-free. The article talks about this but, never differentiates between debt loaded money AND debt-free money.

    "Even more notable has been the unanimity among macroeconomists that massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is the appropriate response to a “wartime” economic emergency."
    This "emergency" is otherwise called AUTOMATION.
    The more extreme Keynesian position that is now popular is that even managing debt levels does not matter. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) reckons that, as long as there is ‘slack’ in the capitalist economy ie. unemployment, governments can spend indefinitely and central banks can support them by ‘printing money’ without any risk of default or financial collapse.
    However, it may not be as simple as that. Calculating whether debt service is sustainable involves several key numbers:

    "So government spending, Keynesian-style, can only be a substitute for failing private investment and consumption for a short while."
    "The ‘evil’ of inflation is even admitted by MMT, if only when full employment is reached and the ‘slack’ in the economy disappears."

    The solution is seen as world socialism. It is creeping in everywhere.
    Armstrong, "They know SOCIALISM is collapsing for they have reached the limit of perpetual borrowing with no intention of ever paying anything off."
    "The Democrats are absolutely desperate to get rid of Trump for they believe they must take control of the entire government and impose their draconian agenda to seize assets, raise taxes to absurd levels, and oppress the people to prevent an uprising. These goals will unleash violence — not a panacea of unlimited power."
    We're all going to be chipped and tracked to extract the maximum amount of taxes.

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  • Danny B
    Funny that the count of "views" of this thread hasn't changed in a long time. I will continue to write to bring clarity to my head,,, if not anyone else.
    The risk of default is moving up the line. "They" have been forced to print to try to save the banks. BUT, the chosenites want to bring it all down so, we can assume that crashing the banks is on the menu. I'll start with China. They moved 300 million plus self-sufficient peasants to the city and, put them to work. They have run out of legitimate things for the to do so, they print money to finance illegitimate projects. Even in America, giga-tons of pixels are generated to finance projects to keep people working when legitimate jobs have disappeared to be done by computer-driven machines.

    The Chinese banking system; Bloomberg,
    "Authorities are seeking to shore up their $41 trillion banking system, which could suffer an 8 trillion yuan increase in bad debt this year, according to S&P Global. Small Chinese banks tracked by UBS Group AG need an estimated $349 billion of fresh capital."
    Keep in mind that the 3 Gorges dam is FAILING right now. Western media will not talk about it because it would be an enormous shock to ALL financial markets.
    "$41 trillion banking system" What could go wrong?

    OK, enough of China. What about American banks?
    Last crash was caused by failures of CDOs. Apparently, the next failure will be caused by failure of CLOs,,,, a close cousin.
    "Despite their obvious resemblance to the villain of the last crash, CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system."
    This idiotic mindset claims that everyone but the banks will fail and, the banks will survive. It just doesn't work that way. Defaults move inexorable up the line.
    "Last July, one month after Powell declared in a press conference that “the risk isn’t in the banks,” two economists from the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. depository institutions and their holding companies owned more than $110 billion worth of CLOs issued out of the Cayman Islands alone."
    "The Financial Stability Board, which monitors the global financial system, warned in December that 14 percent of CLOs—more than $100 billion worth—are unaccounted for."

    Very good article,

    "When Zimbabwe suspended trading on its stock exchange last week, James Hove was left with no access to the funds he needs to conduct his business.

    Like many wealthy Zimbabweans, Hove invests in the local stock market. Not for the value he sees in the companies whose stocks trade on it, but as a hedge against surging consumer prices: while annual inflation is running at 786%,"
    Access to money would be a big problem when the banks finally close here.

    7/06 Study shows shielding EMF improves autoimmune disease – GMI
    So, what does that imply for 5G?

    7/07 ‘Falling off a cliff’: Lebanon’s poor borrow to buy bread – Reuters
    Smith completely misses the point. All that money pumped into the upper loop is continuing to provide employment to the lower loop. So what of the upper loop continues to grow richer. As long as some of the money seeps down into jobs.
    7/07 FED’s $10 trillion defends assets of the rich – Michael Hudson
    They have to spend some of it.
    7/07 In the covid-19 economy, you can have a kid or a job, but not both – NY Times
    7/07 ‘Beyond worst nightmares’: Argentina’s child poverty rate soars – Reuters
    7/07 Japan’s household spending slumps by record amount – Reuters Their population is shrinking.
    7/07 World’s largest pension fund loses $165 billion in worst quarter – Yahoo! Yep, Japan sinking beneath the waves.

    7/07 Public pension reckoning delayed with stimulus pumping up stocks – Yahoo!
    MUCH of this pumping is aimed at keeping pension funds solvent.
    7/06 China stokes a stock-market mania, risking repeat of 2015 bubble – Yahoo!
    This is "plan A" AND plan B and, plan C, and plan D
    7/07 The Big Short #2 – World feasts on excessive risk again – Technical Traders
    Plan a,b,c,d,e, and F

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  • Danny B
    Hmmm, everything else erased. Any how, here is a brilliant article from Smith.

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  • Danny B
    Armstrong and pensions.
    REPLY: I have been running the models perhaps hoping for a different outcome but it’s always the same. September to November 2020 is going to see rising tension. It is clear that this virus is being used for political purposes and NEITHER side will accept the result in November. I added a section in the Great Reset which people can pull down as an update where the United Nations is now calling for a one-world government and that all politicians should come together and join under their banner. This is a major political coup that is unfolding on a global scale, but they are focusing on getting rid of Trump so they can include the United States along with Europe.

    PLEASE keep in mind that while the dollar may end up as a safe haven for Europe, DO NOT expect that to last beyond 2 years at best. There is nothing which is permanent as we head into 2032. Even the 2020 election may end up in the Supreme Court.

    This whole thing is a major effort to take over the world economy for all the socialistic programs that are collapsing. Europe has endured 6 years of negative interest rates with no stimulation. They can no longer raise money to fund programs. The days of perpetually borrowing have come to an end. This coup is all about seizing the system for what they see is a global revolution when people realize that everything they counted on from the government will not be there.

    Social Security's annual Trustees Report came out recently, and it showed Social Security ran a gigantic $9 trillion deficit between last year and this year. The system's long-term unfunded liability is now $43 trillion, up from $34 trillion last year."

    "“The ECB is trapped. It cannot raise rates to raise money and it has destroyed its bond market. The only way out is to default on all debt and they will do that by declaring it to be now a perpetual debt"
    Armstrong expects GOV to seize all pensions.

    But fear not. We are heading into a Monetary Crisis of untold proportions. If the governments do not listen, they will create the biggest civil unrest in all of history. This is the collapse of socialism, for they have promised everything, funded nothing

    Last edited by Danny B; 07-05-2020, 05:09 AM. Reason: Mo info

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  • Danny B
    Bastiat; "The State. What is the state? I like Douglass North’s definition of a state as an organization with a comparative advantage in violence extending over a geographic area with boundaries determined by its power to tax. Bastiat goes a step further and lays bare the essence of the state as it would later be analyzed by scholars working in the public choice tradition like Mancur Olson and James M. Buchanan: “The state is the great fiction by which everyone endeavors to live at the expense of everyone else.”

    You must keep in mind that the State has the guns and the lawbooks. When it sees fit, it can twist the laws to it's advantage. The State is a parasite and, must steal it's resources.
    You worked 105 days this year to support a blob state that grows by 6% a year, regardless of work load. Those who live by the generosity of the State are forever fearful of losing support. They earned that support fair & square through correct votes & bribes. 51% of Americans receive a check from the State.
    This "comparative advantage in violence" is what keeps many States in power. There would be problems if you arm the sheep. Many States keep control by the explicit threat of violence against it's constituents (sheep)
    The threat of violence works wonders for keeping people fearful; https://www.*****

    We have reached a point where the whole economy is disintegrating because everyone was robbed. The real, and, potential damage from defaults is moving up the chain of finance.
    The loan delinquency rate follows the unemployment rate. Look at this graph and, it will all be very clear.
    "The world’s central banks are now in the process of outshining both Weimar and Zimbabwe. Together with governments they have globally printed and borrowed $18 trillion since CV started. And since the Great Financial crisis started in 2006 they have more than doubled global debt from $125 trillion to over $275 trillion but that is just the beginning. "
    Equity values have doubled but, earnings are flat. The CBs have to pump ever harder.

    The blob State is running short on money to support the ever increasing blob. They see a State owned crypto currency as the answer.
    "We just released this report which includes, as part of the Great Reset, the push to eliminate paper money to move toward a digital currency world where they can track everything we do and allow for drastic increases in taxation. They have been suddenly justifying this by claiming that viruses can live on surfaces."

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  • Danny B
    I had to post that, not knowing if it would all disappear if I continued.
    More on the subject of leverage & labor.
    "Even more 'unprecedented' is the fact that the two measures of the labor market are expected to diverge dramatically with a 1.35 million increase in new jobless claimants occurring at the same time as the BLS is expected to report an increase of 3.058 million jobs in the US economy."
    The stock market cannot be allowed to crash. Because everybody's retirement and wealth disappears with it. So the Federal Reserve will continue to print money from nothing and buy stock. It's called the Jappification of America.
    This graph shows perfectly what happened when the bankers got rid of the last vestige of the gold standard.
    They got their flexible currency and, we got poverty through price inflation.

    In an expose in the July issue of The Atlantic, he describes how CLOs, a close cousin to CDOs have collapsed in value and are stuffed on bank balance sheets.

    $100B in CLOs are "unaccounted for" according to the Financial Stability Board.

    Worse, the biggest banks are stuffed with over a trillion in off-balance sheet debt hidden in variable interest entities (VIEs).

    JPMorgan alone has $651 billion stuck in off-balance sheet credit card debt.

    This Pandemic Is A Politician's Dream Come True

    ...they have a free pass to create limitless quantities of money to pay for whatever pet project they want. Universal basic income? Print money. Free healthcare? Print money. New roads? Print money.

    Stunning Surge In New CMBS Delinquencies Heralds Commercial Real Estate Disaster
    Everyone is working from home. We don't need no stinkin office space.

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  • Danny B

    There are some concepts that break down to simple terms. They may not be obvious but, they are simple.
    A banker is allowed to leverage your $1 dollar up many times.
    "Joseph Stiglitz, writing in Vanity Fair, described five key “mistakes” that had helped cause the financial crisis. Sure enough, the 2004 rule change got prominent play. And for the first time, Stiglitz explicitly mentioned the extent to which the leverage ratios had increased—“from 12:1 to 30:1, or higher,”
    A banker can leverage up every dollar but, YOU can not leverage up your labor. A banker can always front-run you and buy up everything that you need. Through the magic of fractional reserve, he can bid up everything that you want to buy.

    "Let's ask a very simple question. The S&P 500 stock index went up five-fold from its 2009 low at 667 to a recent high around 3,400. Did your income rise five-fold since 2009? Probably not.

    Houses that sold for $150,000 in 2000 are now valued at $900,000, a six-fold increase since 2000. Did your income rise six-fold since 2000? Probably not.

    State university tuition has risen about 2.5 times from 2004 to 2019. Did your income rise 2.5-fold since 2004? Probably not.

    Even burritos from the local taco truck have tripled in price in the past 15 years. Did your income triple? Probably not.

    The average household income in 2000 was about $42,000. To match the six-fold increase in urban housing valuations, that household would have to earn $252,000 this year. How many households saw their income soar from $42,000 to $252,000? Not many.

    The average household income in 2009 was about $50,000. To match the five-fold increase in stock market valuations, that household would have to earn $250,000 this year. How many households saw their income soar from $50,000 to $250,000? Not many.

    In effect, the nation has become dependent on its central bankers and their limited agenda (expand the wealth and power of the financial sector). The elected government and the real-world production of goods and services both have taken a back seat to conjured "wealth."

    The ascendance of finance and the decay of labor's value is the result of the ascendance of monetary stimulus as the core driver of "wealth" and thus "growth." It was once expected that consumption would be funded by wages earned by labor, and investment would be funded by savings set aside from earnings. That era is long past. What's been normalized is a systemic reliance on debt to fund consumption and on the euphoric "animal spirits" of the wealth effect generated by soaring assets such as homes and stocks.

    History offers a number of parallels to the ascendance of borrowed capital over labor and central bank money-printing over the creation of productive value. History suggests eras that have normalized economic and financial extremes--extremes of inequality, policy, and decay--haven't ended well for anyone.

    Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won't be evenly distributed, either.


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  • Danny B
    You may be right

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  • BroMikey
    Originally posted by Danny B View Post

    Nope, Mikey. No recovery, V-shaped or otherwise. .......... the Marxists that are working to crash the economy
    In other words, having injected over $3 trillion in liquidity in the past three months

    The FED pumps up the stock market.

    They are attacking Trump with no mercy because he won't continue the wars.,

    The old companies fade away and the new ones come run by young PEPE

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  • Danny B
    Nope, Mikey. No recovery, V-shaped or otherwise. I read the Fox article. What you have to keep in mind is; the first stimulus checks didn't fix the economy. What is NOT stated here is; what happens after the second round of stimulus does not fix the problems? Confidence is gone and, people are just hanging on and trying to survive.
    UNFORTUNATELY, the Marxists that are working to crash the economy are hard at work mandating that we will have a second wave of virus shutdowns. I go out on the streets and, everything is quiet. I have a friend who is a big egg distributor. Eggs are the cheapest protein. His business is way down. What does that mean when people slow way down on spending for basic foods?
    Why do you think that GOV is proposing MMT? MMT would be ongoing"stimulus". A second round of stimulus would need to be followed by even more rounds.

    Look at it this way. The FED has been "stimulating" the stock market for many years. Did that fix anything?
    "As Panigirtzoglou explains, "the risk of policy mistake is related to the idea that there is a need for additional stimulus going forward and if policy makers fail to deliver it, they would effectively slip behind the curve rather than staying ahead of the curve, risking a negative market response."

    In other words, having injected over $3 trillion in liquidity in the past three months, JPM argues that this is nowhere near enough, and incidentally, the House of Morgan is not alone: after all this is precisely the same argument that Goldman made in mid-May when the bank "spotted a huge problem for the Fed", namely that the Fed will need to monetize much more debt - about $1.6 trillion more - than it currently envisions in order to avoid a disorderly surge in Treasury yields. "

    This is , of course, BS. They can't inject $1 trillion a month and, expect that to fix everything. The proposed $1.6 trillion would need to be followed by X $ trillion more.
    "One of the main topics of discussion with clients in recent weeks has been about the downside risks to the equity and risky market outlook into the second half of the year. Of the three main risks mentioned by clients, a second virus wave, a Democratic sweep in the US presidential election; and a policy mistake, it is the third one that worries us the most."
    "In not so many words, JPMorgan agrees, and implicitly argues that soon the Fed will have to find a way to appease the market once again or risk a major market hit in the coming months."
    Does anybody think that the need for market stimulus will just come to an end with $1.6 trillion more? BOTH the upper AND lower loops need ongoing liquidity injections.

    The FED pumps up the stock market. The pension funds absolutely depend on the stock market rising to make their books look good.

    Martin Armstrong: What Destroyed Rome Was Its Unfunded Government Pensions
    FED GOV is pumping in liquidity into every nook and cranny with major attention paid to keep GOV pensions solvent. Does anybody thing that $1.6 trillion will fix everything that is broken? If it took $1trillion a month to stabilize things, what will it take as things continue to sink? Second wave, anybody?

    Forget the V, W or L recovery: focus on N-P-B – Charles Hugh Smith
    7/02 US jobs increase by 4.8 million in June, vs 2.9 million estimate – CNBC
    7/01 U.S. employers announced more job cuts in June – Reuters
    Yep, the liars and the cheerleaders.
    7/01 U.S. manufacturing activity hits 14-month high – Reuters
    Reuters is among the worst BSers

    The FED;
    "The staff presented results from model simulations that suggested that forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases can help support the labor market recovery and the return of inflation to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent inflation goal. The simulations suggested that the Committee would have to maintain highly accommodative financial conditions for many years to quicken meaningfully the recovery from the current severe downturn. "
    The FED is trying to support the WHOLE economy by pumping up the stock market. It just doesn't work that way.
    The 2% inflation goal is what screwed us to begin with.

    The Bretton Woods agreement locked us into the gold standard. This allows the economy to grow by 2% a year. The same that the gold supply grows,
    Banker LOVE & NEED an expansive currency. We started the war in Viet-Nam. This required so much money printing that the Bretton Woods agreement was eventually destroyed,,,,, all those thousands of people killed just to get rid of the gold standard.

    Look at the graphs on this site. Everything turned to feces for the working man when we went off the gold standard.
    It was war that broke the gold standard. It is wars that brought us to the current situation of maxxed out federal debt. The wars greatly benefited a certain group / country. They are attacking Trump with no mercy because he won't continue the wars.,

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  • BroMikey
    Recovery "WITH A V"

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  • Danny B
    I was up at my BOL for a few days. Things definitely haven't improved in my absence.
    There are several core problems that can not be rectified. Socialism is the firewall that allows the non-producers to greatly increase their numbers.
    At the same time, automation is wiping out job niches for all but, the highly educated.
    Politicians continue to buy votes by creating social-support programs.
    Nearly 50% of Americans are not in the workforce,
    51% of Americans receive a check from the State.

    Everyone is scrambling to maintain control,
    Everybody will have a harder time making a living. Everybody will endure shocking losses in wealth, status, and comfort. And, sadly, everybody will be too perplexed and bamboozled by the rush of events to understand why.
    The short version of that story is we’ve overshot our resources, especially the basic energy resources that all other activities require."
    Yep, the master resource is energy.

    Automation takes all the jobs and, MMT is seen as the only answer to widespread unemployment. It is claimed that MMT will wipe out the work ethic for all the rest.
    The theory of MMT falls flat when faced with reality (part I) – RIA
    Into darkness: where the Fed is leading us – Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity
    David Stockman on what could happen if the Fed loses control – International Man
    We face WIDESPREAD default and, the FED is trying to soften the blow.
    How we arrived at the globalist calls for a ‘great reset’ – Steven Guinness
    It's called automation & job loss.

    America is facing 5 epic crises all at once – NY Times
    A collapsing dollar and China’s monetary strategy – GoldMoney
    Armstrong, "All state pension systems are going to fail. This is why there is a push to really get rid of Trump so they can usher in major tax increases to bail out the government pensions. The Democrats are advocating the same posture as in Europe. It is the World Economic Forum which under Picketty is advocating a 400% increase in taxes in Europe.

    These people are fools. Virtually every revolution throughout history begins with tax increases"
    The ECB,
    "ANSWER: The most likely course will be to convert all outstanding debt to perpetual bonds. Then they would pay interest and they need not redeem them, so no more rolling. They will be faced with a choice. If they decide to continue to borrow, then they will most likely do so by real auctions, and the ECB will not support the bonds or prevent interest rates from rising. They could take the more likely course of action and just print money to cover expenses, otherwise, the budget will no longer match the treaty."
    What would it take to dethrone the dollar? – The Street
    Every other currency would have to roar back to dethrone the dollar. Every other currency is collapsing.

    China is collapsing financially. At the same time, our ongoing pole flip is causing anomalous weather all around the planet. This includes extremely heavy rains in China. Reportedly, the 3 Gorges dam is at risk.
    That would be a VERY impressive collapse.

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  • Danny B
    You Britts seem to be running out of money.
    The bankers ALWAYS seem to have a scheme to draw in the sheep to be sheared. There are always day-traders who think that they can beat the big guys.

    One hundred and six million (loans) in the default pipeline, though, that can only mean the clock has already started ticking. The output of that pipeline is bankruptcy and loss, and wide distribution of both. A consumer who wins bankruptcy relief doesn’t extinguish their obligation, they’ve simply redistributed the loss to the bank or financial firm who first extended the loan.

    The can is too big for the Fed & ECB to kick down the road – Egon von Greyerz
    What the US stock market looks like minus APPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, FB – WS
    6/24 Rabo: “we apparently live in a bad Hollywood B-movie” – Zero Hedge
    6/24 China’s banking system begins to crack at its grass roots – Yahoo!
    6/24 China’s growing dollar bond defaults reveal depths of distress – Bloomberg

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  • Danny B
    Ron Paul, "These interventions will not save the economy. Instead, they will make the inevitable crash more painful. The next crash can bring about the end of the fiat monetary system. The question is not if the current monetary system ends, but when. The only way Congress can avoid the Fed causing another great depression is to begin transitioning to a free-market monetary system by auditing, then ending, the Fed."
    The State drove interest rates to zero so that it could avoid most of the debt-service charges. This destroyed most of the rest of the economy because all investment was predicated on collecting interest. The State is a predator & parasite and, evidently isn't worried about the whole rest of the economy. This can all be blamed on the FED but, it was the State that forced the FED to buy government bonds.

    UK Car Industry Pleads for Government Support as 'One in Six' Employees Face Job Losses
    "Millennials are pumping the breaks on buying cars and, with that, purchasing gas. Many millennials are even deciding not to get their driver’s license all together. In fact, in the last eight years, the number of drivers age 18-25 was down nearly 25%. Now that is a reversal."

    6/24 Will people accept rampant inflation? Hell no! – Streetwise
    All of a sudden, 44 million people are jobless and, not producing anything. This is a titanic deflationary pressure. The FED is trying to offset this.
    6/24 US stock market enters parabolic move – be prepared, part I – TT
    6/24 Default wave arrives: weekly bankruptcy filings suddenly soar – ZH
    6/24 Defaults are coming – GoldSeek
    6/24 The second Great Depression – Atlantic

    California Smashes Daily New Cases Record For Second Day In A Row: Live Updates
    Dow Dumps To 'Navarro'-Lows On Texas And California COVID Count Concerns
    Yeah right, somebody claims that Ca. Has LOTS more C/V and, the markets crash.

    EVERYBODY wearing blinders claims that the dollar will crash. Yes, it will but, only after everything else crashes.

    What do you do when reality is NOT looking good?
    "A Crisis Like No Other": IMF Sees Even Deeper Global Recession, Warns Markets Disconnected From Reality

    "Financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline."

    US Draws Up Plan To Slap Tariffs On $3.1 Billion In European Goods

    The message is clear: It's every nation for themselves...

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  • Danny B
    "Williams issues a scathing expose of the rotten foundation of the fairy tale we’re told about our economy, and how that is used to squeeze fixed-income pensioners, over-tax the middle class, and mislead and misdirect investors into dutifully marching off the cliff."
    6/22 Shale industry to be rocked by $300 billion in losses, bankruptcies – CNBC

    Is This The Lowest Point In Modern US History?

    We have reached a moment in history when all of the cycles are ending, all of the bubbles are bursting, and we are going to experience the consequences of all the very foolish decisions that we have been making for decades...

    China Must Prepare To Be Cut Off From Dollar-Based Financial System, Official Warns

    "Such things have already happened to many Russian businesses and financial institutions. We have to make preparations early – real preparations, not just psychological preparations..."

    Robert 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' Kiyosaki: "I Was Told Not To Talk About This"

    "...they are covering up something very, very big."

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