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  • Danny B
    replied
    credit crisis and illiquidity

    Armstrong made it clear that U.S. GOV would collapse going into 2020.
    Not wanting to be left out of the doom porn, Ray Dalio says that he expects the whole system to collapse going into 2020. Now, we have a celebrity who is claiming that we will collapse going into 2020.
    Big, Bad, Bald Benjamin Shalom Bernanke.
    Remember, Bernanke said that HE could have headed off Great Depression One. He said that the FED did not inject enough liquidity to save the day.

    Bernanke 2008;
    "As you know, financial systems in the United States and in much of the rest of the world are under extraordinary stress, particularly the credit and money markets. ......resulting in further declines in asset prices and a drying up of liquidity in a number of funding markets."
    He injected something like $18--20 trillion. It did NOT fix anything, except temporarily.

    " it also means that the more supercharged the economy gets thanks to the fiscal stimulus, the greater the fall will be when the hangover hits. "
    "Stealing further from the Bridgewater note, Bernanke said that while the stimulus "is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and next year and then in 2020 Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff, and it's going to look down"
    "The irony here is delightful: after all it was Ben Bernanke who consistently blamed Congress for not doing enough to jumpstart the economy during his time in office - a core topic of his 2015 memoir "The Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and Its Aftermath"; it is the same Bernanke who three years later is now blaming the President and Congress for doing too much."
    "Congress is largely responsible for the incomplete recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, Ben S. Bernanke,"
    "And now that Congress has more than done its part, Bernanke predicts collapse in under 2 years."
    "The even bigger irony of course is that the real reason for the upcoming collapse has little to do with Trump whose $1 trillion stimulus is a drop in the bucket compared to the doubling of the US debt under the previous administration and the $20 trillion liquidity injection by Mr. Bernanke"
    "But, with a convenient scapegoat currently in the White House, the Fed - and certainly the one person who assured that the bursting of the current asset bubble will be nothing short of spectacular, Ben "subprime is contained" Bernanke, will be more than happy to place all the blame for the upcoming economic crash on who else, Donald Trump."

    "When POTUS was on the campaign trail he said the U.S. economy was all a big bubble being propped up by the Fed's low interest rates, and now of course the Fed is saying it's all a big bubble being propped up by the POTUS tax cuts"

    Comments;

    "The inevitable collapse from attempting unlimited growth on our finite planet is a surprise? Really? The 1972 MIT "limits to growth" detailed this a long time ago.
    Limits to Growth: Dennis Meadows (#116 Encore) - Conversation Earth
    According to this graph from BofA ML, the Fed is going to create a crisis next year by raising rates.

    https://glitchtraders.com/2018/05/24...ates-a-crisis/

    Which was done (((Fed Chairman))) By (((Fed Chairman ))) over the last 30 years... Wow...


    Now that we are AT the brink i think it is BRILLIANT that you have a token Goy in Place as Fed Chairman... Jerome H. Powell... For The Inevitable Destruction of the US Economic System... as you so well predict Ben ?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/comment/11802089

    About that liquidity and those credit markets,,,
    6/09 Nomi Prins: “major credit squeeze” could trigger next crisis – Zero Hedge
    6/09 Goldman urges “de-risking” strategies in stocks as credit tumbles – Zero Hedge
    6/09 “It’s just like 1998” — haunted by visions of a bursting tech bubble – Zero Hedge
    6/08 Goldman: Credit markets ringing alarm bell on stocks – Bloomberg


    6/09 SNB’s Jordan says too early to raise interest rates – Reuters
    6/09 Fed, ECB to tighten policy in tandem – Reuters
    6/08 Fed to raise rates regardless of emerging market woes – Bloomberg

    NOT true, they want to precipitate a crash from dollar illiquidity.
    6/09 Trump vows to ‘straighten out’ G7 trade ahead of meeting – Reuters
    Buy more popcorn.
    6/09 Emerging market outflows likely to continue – Financial Sense THAT is what the FED is betting on.
    6/09 Trump to leave G7 early, tensions high after ‘rant’ over trade – Reuters
    Trump pulled the wheel off the apple cart.

    6/09 Fed, ECB to tighten policy in tandem – Reuters
    The ECB would like to raise rates to stop capital outflow. They can raise rates but, they can NOT buy confidence. Raise rates,,,,, collapse much sooner.

    OK, we're told over and over that liquidity has dried up. Who Knows?
    "Total System (non-financial, financial and foreign) Credit expanded at a (record) seasonally-adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR) of $3.513 TN during 2018's first quarter, compared to Q4's SAAR $1.411 TN and Q1 '17's SAAR $860 billion. This booming Credit expansion was fueled by an SAAR $2.519 TN increase of federal borrowings. Granted, this was partially a makeup from Q4's slight contraction in federal debt growth.

    In nominal dollars, Total U.S. System Credit expanded a blazing $962 billion during Q1 to a record $69.717 TN (349% of GDP). Non-financial Debt (NFD) expanded a record (nominal) $874 billion, with one-year growth of $2.413 TN. One must return to booming 2007 for a larger ($2.508 TN) four quarter-period of Credit expansion. NFD ended Q1 at a record $49.831 TN, matching a record 250% of GDP. NFD expanded $4.086 TN over the past two years, the strongest expansion since '07/'08."

    "Outstanding Treasury Securities ended Q1 at a record $17.046 TN, increasing a nominal $615 billion during the quarter."
    "Treasury debt-to-GDP ended Q1 at 85%, more than double 2007's 41%. It's worth adding that total Treasury and Agency Securities ended Q1 at a record $25.920 TN, or 130% of GDP."
    " Total Debt Securities (TDS) expanded $789 billion during the quarter to a record $43.868 TN. TDS began 2000 at $15.606 TN and closed 2007 at $28.828 TN. TDS ended Q1 at a near-record 220% of GDP, up from 2007's 200%. "
    "Household Liabilities increased $44 billion for the quarter ($538bn y-o-y) to $15.574 TN. "
    https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...1-flow-of.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Austrian deja vu

    Here is a graph of the stock market from 1925 to 1955. The financial system allowed TOO MUCH margin debt. You can see the spike at 1929. If you take out that spike, the market was not all that bad.
    https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=...age018.jpg&f=1
    It was the excess margin debt that made the market vulnerable to a crash.

    The '29 crash did not cause the Great Depression I. It is claimed that the Great Depression I was precipitated by a banking failure,, specifically, Credit Anstalt.
    The Creditanstalt Crisis of 1931 and the Failure of the Austro-German Customs Union Project
    "European bank runs and failure of Credit-Anstalt in 1931 - Business ...
    Page Not Found - Business Insider...
    May 21, 2012 - At the time, it was the biggest bank of Austria. Its failure triggered a European banking crisis"
    Biggest bank,,, why does that sound familiar?
    Lessons from the Credit-Anstalt Collapse - Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...stalt-collapse

    "Seven years on from the bailout of Austrian Hypo Alpe Aldria Bank, private investors and politicians are still at loggerheads over who should foot the bill. While Hypo Group itself is no more, Heta, the "bad bank" designed to wind down the business over time, is now the problem: it disclosed a 7 billion-euro ($8 billion) capital hole last year."

    Banking Crisis Reemerges in Austria – “Bail-In Is Now the Rule” as Noonan Warned
    3, March

    – Auditors find €7.6 billion hole in Austria’s “bad bank”, Heta Asset Resolution AG

    – Austria’s government says it will not give Heta “a single euro”

    – Emergency legislation passed last month means bondholders to be bailed in

    – Risk of contagion high as other banks may hold Heta bonds

    – “Bail-in is now the rule” – EU Finance Minister Noonan

    – Austrian bondholders today … international depositors tomorrow …
    "for the first time after the Austrian government said it would pour no more money into its ‘bad bank’, triggering a fall of nearly 30 per cent in the value of some bonds."
    " The profitability of Europe's banks is in crisis rather than the system itself, the finance minister of Austria told CNBC"
    The breakdown of the Swiss Franc peg has made it far worse for Austria.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...t-do-so-again/

    Edit; Here is the current though on gold in Austria;
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...h-ecb-governor
    So Austrian and European bondholders have been warned that bail-in is the new program. Is it any wonder that there is huge capital flight to America?
    Armstrong said that the stock market is no longer affected by price or earnings.
    Last edited by Danny B; 06-10-2018, 12:07 AM. Reason: Cause I felt like it... one more link

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Full on attack at all dollar competitors

    Nobody really wants U.S. sovereign debt. A few years ago, the Treasury claimed that; Belgium, Luxembourg, Iceland, Cayman Islands Were buying it. Never mind that Belgium had no dollars to buy Treasury bonds any way. We haven't heard much from the BLICs lately. More recently, Treasury claims that American households are buying Treasury notes. NOT banks or investment funds. This is highly unlikely. The current admin is borrowing about $1.5 billion a day. Reportedly All this borrowing is sucking dollar liquidity out of the economy.
    The FED is shrinking it's balance sheet which causes a shrinkage of funds in the upper loop of the economy.

    The BOJ does not allow just anybody to create Yen-loans. The FED allows banks, States and all manner of entities to create dollar-denominated debt. Since the dollar had the highest rate of saturation and confidence, everybody created dollar denominated debt.
    Since the dollar was the most stable currency, it generated the lowest interest rate and, everybody tied everything to the dollar.

    Now, the FED and Treasury are reportedly sucking up all dollar liquidity. They claim that the bid-to-cover ratio is very high. I find that hard to believe if American households are supposedly doing most of the buying. We are CURRENTLY in a liquidity crisis. I suspect that the ESF is doing all the buying from the primary dealers. There is no way to tell.

    We are in a liquidity crisis for whatever reason. There is a huge shortage of dollars that is leaving dollar-denominated debt in a very bad position.
    6/08 Indonesia joins India in begging Fed to stop shrinking balance sheet – ZH
    Make no mistake. The currency war has gone up a notch,, MAYBE TWO.
    We used to have a G-8. Somebody kicked out Russia in an obvious effort to isolate them. Trump is kicking the war on the Euro into high gear.
    6/08 G-7 may not survive as Macron, Trudeau attack Trump – MarketWatch
    Can't forget Latin America.
    6/06 US fingerprints all over Nicaragua’s bloody civil unrest – SHTFPlan

    Populism is anathema to bankers. It cuts down on the pillage. Greece is a good example of a nation that was badly pillaged by Wolfgang Schäuble and Merkel. Schäuble is a member of the Christian Democrats. Merkel is a Marxist who attended Karl Marx university and, joined the young communists. Can't let religion or ideology get in the way of profits.
    There have been huge demonstrations against the FED by Germans. The Bundesbank REALLY hates populism. This is a take-no-prisoners war and America is working to promote populism in Germany.
    The Germans are understandably quite pissed off.
    https://theintercept.com/2018/06/04/...ts-take-power/

    Raise the dollar by attacking the Euro.
    Deutshe bank has about $45 trillion in derivatives. If all counter-parties paid up, they would net out to just $3--4 trillion. Credit-default swaps at Deutsche bank are about the same price as CDS for Italian banks.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...l-month-begins
    Yanis Varoufakis was the economic minister in Greece when Germany attacked. He told EVERYBODY that; if the ECB went on attack in Europe, the far-right would rise up everywhere.
    "Welcome to Euro Disney. The result is that Old Glue Factory, the US dark horse, is back in the race to the top of the heap, thanks to Italy. The gradual move in the US toward a bond bust got a quick reprieve when euro trash became US treasuries. So, Old Glue Factory bolts ahead in the backstretch."

    Italy is too big to ignore. They want the ECB to write down 250 Euro of Italian debt. The ECB has bought €340bn-worth of Italian bonds. Those damn Italian populists have also told NATO to shove it
    https://www.rt.com/news/429060-italy...sia-sanctions/
    "The euro crashed BECAUSE there is no such prevention of a contagion. That is totally FALSE and a made up excuse. Fears of the new Italian government of the five-star movement and the right-wing populist Lega came into the markets and sent the euro crashing. A risk of contagion sparked by Italy infecting the entire Eurozone "
    "I’ve enclosed an article regarding Irish pension money in Italian bonds. This is very very scary if true and we really are heading for a disaster from which a little country like ours won’t recover "
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...italian-bonds/

    I can't leave out France. Societe Generale is the biggest bank in France. Pox Americana is fining them for something that has nothing to do with America.
    https://www.courthousenews.com/frenc...ibes-in-libya/
    The U.N says that migration is both good and normal.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ions-un-secgen
    The EU forced a lot of bad policy on the Europeans figuring that there was nothing that they could do about it. Varoufakis warned them about the rise in populism. The center figured that they could always maintain control. In Italy, the Left joined with the Right because they valued nationalism and survival above ideology.

    China is trying to unify the East into an economic bloc to resist the control of Pox Americana. Naturally, Pox Americana is attacking China and the East to stop this union. Keep in mind that; if China defaults, the West can't expect to make collections with the military.
    For now, the East has growing debt and currency problems.
    https://sputniknews.com/asia/2018060...ength-economy/
    6/08 U.S. unilateralism invites world to seek alternative to dollar – GATA

    6/08 Fed to raise rates regardless of emerging market woes – Bloomberg
    The FED will crash domestic markets by lifting rates. At the same time, it will attract foreign capital inflows with it's better interest rates. It appears that the FED prefers to crash Europe and the Emerging markets even if it brings down domestic markets. China probably has the liquidity to carry along the East. Russia is doubling their gold production. Between them, the can probably keep commerce going.

    6/08 Beijing is the real junkie in the high-yield debt muddle – WaPo
    6/08 Fear the China debt crisis nobody is talking about – Bloomberg


    Yeah, right,,, WAPO and Bloomberg.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Italian conflagration,,, headlines

    Armstrong; Liquidity has collapsed and, the banks are trying to change the rules to squeeze out a few more bucks.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...trading-again/
    "Civilization expands when the climate warms, and it contracts when it gets cold. This is also why Kim Jong-Un of North Korea used missiles to force the West to accept his country back into the world fold. Why? North Korea lost more than 2 million people when the crops failed in 1995/1996. The summer of 2017 saw a dramatic decline in crop production in North Korea, down by some 30%. They are headed to another cycle of cold and starvation. His father’s policies of feeding the army first has created a 1 million man army with nothing to do. People joined the army just to eat."

    "We are looking at a sharp rise in food prices in the years ahead."
    "So stockpile food as we enter this period of rising prices. There will be shortages in the years ahead."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...for-the-cycle/
    He is getting a bit more strident in his warnings about food.

    "There is much hope buzzing around in Europe that Draghi is planning on ending Quantitative Easing. This is giving the Euro a bit of a lift in hopes that higher interest rates will stem to drastic capital outflows from Europe that resemble rats fleeing a sinking ship. "
    The ONLY thing that keeps the European bond market for blowing to smithereens is,; the fresh capital injections.

    "The new Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Wednesday that he wanted to organize the cooperative banking sector differently than the previous governments. His plan will most likely meet with considerable resistance from the financial sector and most likely Brussels. He seems to be toying with the idea that he wants to separate the banks as Glass-Steagall did during the aftermath of the Great Depression. He wants the future investment banks to be separated from retail banks."
    Good idea but, too late.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...for-qe-to-end/


    6/07 The ECB is about to take a key step toward an easy-money exit – CNBC
    Not in your lifetime.
    6/07 Italy’s PM takes aim at migrants and austerity in maiden speech – Guardian
    6/07 Betting on crisis, hedge funds short Italian bonds – NYT
    6/07 The next economic crisis begins in the European Union – Lombardi
    No kidding!!
    6/07 Trump sticks with hard line on trade as showdown looms at G7 – Reuters
    6/07 EU plans to hit U.S. imports with duties from July – Reuters

    This is the new "take no prisoners" economic plan.
    6/07 India’s surprise rate hike may lead to next emerging market crisis – Zero Hedge
    Every little bit helps.

    6/07 Czech PM rejects Merkel’s “flexible” EU immigration plan – ZH
    A bullet in the head would have more direct results. How many millions of lives has she destroyed?
    6/07 What the ‘doomsday Brexit Plan’ document says should frighten us all – TruePublica
    6/07 UK houses prices have soared 100-fold since 1966 – City AM
    6/06
    U.S. house prices to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay – Reuters

    Yep, the bankers have priced most people out of housing.

    6/07 Swiss govt pension fund to buy gold bars worth €600 million – Goldcore
    "Why Are the US's "Enemies" Buying Up All the World's Gold?
    Page not found – Casey Research
    It's virtually impossible to get physical gold in London - BullionStar
    Comex Leverage Now 300 Times Greater Than Available Physical Gold!
    Switzerland is the gold hub of the world but, I doubt that they can just buy €600 million.
    Last edited by Danny B; 06-09-2018, 01:16 AM. Reason: mistook

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Headlines

    Carmen Reinhart is as smart as they come. Here, she writes about Italian debt.
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...inhart-2018-05

    6/05 Job openings reach record high in April – MarketWatch Probably true. The skills-gap is getting worse and worse.
    6/05 The next wreck in junk bonds will be bigger, longer and uglier – MarketWatch
    Ugly won't be the word for it,,, especially when it takes out the oil industry.
    6/05 Yield curve’s return to flattest levels in decade raises questions – MW
    It has always been a crash predictor.
    6/05 US firms to pour $2.5 triln into buybacks, dividends and M&A this year – CNBC
    Yep, not a penny to go into R&D nor wage increases, nor CAPEX.

    6/05 30,000 six-figure Illinois educators cost taxpayers $3.7 billion – Forbes
    Educators, my a$$. I bet that not one of them is a teacher,,,, administrators, ALL.
    6/05 Shock moves engulf all-or-nothing markets – Bloomberg
    There is going to be a lot of NOTHING in the future.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Flashmob, European capital flight,,, dollar attack

    Armstrong, "As the low-interest rates have undermined pensions throughout Europe, the governments will have to step up and bail them out.
    The low-interest rate policy for nearly 10 years has not merely destroyed the bond market in Europe, it has undermined the pension system both privately and publicly. Indeed, adding to this crisis is the mandate that all pension funds hold some or the majority of their investments into government debt.
    Furthermore, as this pension crisis matures, we will have the same problem of transfer payments. This is how and why the EU will break apart because there is no actual resolution to consolidate the debts.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...reakup-the-eu/

    "Our models based upon reliable source flow data is currently showing that the Eurozone is the NUMBER ONE place in the world with the greatest amount of capital fleeing than any other region worldwide. "
    "The internal flight is to the British pound which is starting to shift from even Germany. "
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...world-economy/

    "Just to Clarify, we are also picking up Capital Inflows from the EU moving into Scandinavia – Denmark, Sweeden & Norway. We also see money moving into Poland and Hungary "
    Poland and Hungary are rejecting the immigrant invasion.
    "What has become increasingly apparent is the mere fact that confidence among SERIOUS money is starting to realize the EU is a failure."
    The Norwegian wealth fund has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.3% of global stocks and shares.
    What happens when a fund like that starts to move money?
    "Centralized control was the downfall of Russia and China under a communist state system."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...oland-hungary/

    Add to that; the Euro is under attack by the dollar hegemon.
    "don't blame the Fed's rate hike cycle. Instead blame the "double whammy" of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet coupled with the dollar draining surge in debt issuance by the US Treasury."
    Treasury debt can only be bought with dollars. The more debt that is issued, the more dollars go OUT of circulation.
    "this episode cannot be attributed to the US Federal Reserve’s moves on interest rates, which have been rising steadily since December 2016 in a calibrated manner." But does that mean that the Fed is not to blame for what increasingly looks like another budding EM crisis? Not at all: according to Patel, the dollar funding shortage "upheaval" stems from what he sees as the confluence of two significant events of which the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is one, while the second is the dramatic increase in US Treasury issuance to pay for Trump's tax cuts; what is notable is that both events are drastically soaking up dollar liquidity."

    "As a result, Patel blames a lack a coordination between the Fed and Treasury on the adverse flow through across global funding markets"
    Yeah right. This is fully coordinated..
    "given the rapid rise in the size of the US deficit, the Fed must respond by slowing plans to shrink its balance sheet. If it does not, Treasuries will absorb such a large share of dollar liquidity that a crisis in the rest of the dollar bond markets is inevitable."
    "And in a curious coincidence, the withdrawal of dollar funding by the Fed in monthly terms, as it reduces its reinvestment of income received, is proceeding at roughly the same pace as that of net issuance of debt by the US government."
    Keep in mind that the R.O.W. is trying to break away from the dollar. As America cuts off dollar funding, this crashes all other markets. This is a battle of attrition, nothing less.
    "Both are terrible news for Emerging Markets, which are in desperate need of reversing the ongoing dollar outflows;"

    "As Patel further explains, this unintended coincidence has proved to be a “double whammy” for global markets, and especially emerging markets, largely as a consequence of one key event: the evaporation of dollar funding, not only from sovereign debt markets but in short-term funding markets as well"
    Right, coincidence.
    "This has manifested in a sharp reversal of foreign capital flows out of Emerging Markets over the past six weeks, often exceeding $5bn a week, resulting in a sharp drop in emerging market bonds, stocks and currencies."
    "And here, for the first time this tightening cycle, a prominent foreign central banker has accused the Fed of stirring trouble for emerging markets"
    "but in that case Powell risks a broader contagion, first in EMs and then everywhere else. "
    Yup, the plan is for the dollar to be the last man standing.
    "already reputable foreign central bankers are demanding the Fed stop the pain. "
    "One can only imagine the chaos and turmoil in EMs (and then DMs) in four months time,"
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...global-turmoil

    The crash is coming and, the East plans to anchor the bond market to gold. Pox Americana is trying to suck up all the capital to try to survive. NOBODY wants the SDR. Armstrong assures us that all sovereign debt will collapse. The Achilles heel is OIL. America will attract a lot of fleeing capital but, it isn't going to the junk bond markets. That market was the only thing that kept fracking oil flowing. Also, it isn't going to the sovereign bond market.
    Pox Americana rattles sabers all along Russia's western front. Also, in the South China Sea and North Korea. Putin is showing a LOT of restraint. America has killed quite a few Russian soldiers. Bolton is a blithering idiot, along with being a war hawk. The Wolfowitz doctrine calls for the destruction of Lebanon and Iran. Has he actually given any thought of what would happen if 20% of the oil supply were cut off?
    Europe is pulling away from the American war hawks. There is a segment that wants the collapse as soon as possible.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Jim Willie,,, Italian fallout and contagion

    Jim Willie has written for quite a while about a global currency reset. He has written that Pox Americana has vigorously resisted that reset. Making a guess about that, I reckon that New York and London bankers have underwritten U.S. debt to keep the Pox Americana war machine operating until it ultimately slaps down "This is a memo that describes how we're going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran." Wesley Clark
    Pox Americana is still a few countries short of the list. The Pentagon reports that it can't account for $21 trillion. It would appear that Pox Americana is kiting checks and the big banking centers are covering for it. Israel expects to eventually go to war with it's neighbors.
    That would be; Gaza, Lebanon / Hezbollah and, Iran. It does NOT want to fight a war on 3 fronts. The plan WAS to weaken Iran and Hezbollah.
    The opposite has happened. Israel may weaken Gaza but, that only strengthens Hezbollah.
    How much longer will the banking centers honor $trillions in U.S. unfunded spending waiting for Lebanon and Iran to be destroyed?

    Jim Willie and notes on European banks.
    "GET READY FOR THE SIMULTANEOUS BANKING CRISIS IN THE THREE BIGGEST EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY. The United States and the London Centre will not be able to avoid the crisis.
    The largest bank in Europe is Deutsche Bank. Its credit default swap is rising in cost, while its stock price has entered single digits in a powerful decline. The great D-Bank, site of the European office in management of the multi-$trillion derivatives, is on the verge of financial failure. It is the largest bank in all of Europe. All of its business segments are impaired and losing money in a hemorrhage. Furthermore, it is a big bond holder for Italian Govt Bonds. The Italian banking system is in the death throes, which has finally been recognized.

    However, the bigger bond holder for Italian debt is France. Expect a massive bank crisis to emerge very soon that wrecks Societe General and BNP Paribas, its two largest banks.
    Back in 2016, the Hat Trick Letter warned of very high Non-Performing Loans among the Italian banks.
    Jim is always early and people tend to ignore a warning for a situation that they just can not perceive.
    It was this CDSwap rising rate which warned at least three months in advance of the Lehman Brothers failure (killjob by JPM and GSax). But the contagion for the Italian banking failure is the main point. Notice that back two years ago, the French big banks had triple the size of exposure to Italian debt, versus the German banks. The Spanish and US banks will also suffer from the impact.
    The inside people know what is going on. You see the results in the cost of CDSwap. A bit later, you see LIBOR get blown out.

    "The Global Currency RESET has begun, hardly with fanfare and parades, or even formal public statements by the main players. Many are the events and steps toward the planning and execution of the RESET, which will be very disruptive, and make the Lehman failure seem rather minor by comparison.
    The Jackass has been preaching for several years that the QE monetary policy has saved the big banks, or at least through bolstered official liquidity having bought them some time. But the consequence has been to render severe damage to the tangible economies. QE has essentially killed the economies. The feedback loop has struck the banks

    "Therefore, the true inflation adjusted GDP has been minus 2% to minus 4% every year since before the Lehman failure.
    The entire Belt & Road Initiative forms a massive $6 to $8 trillion conference table of projects, mostly construction, all in the Eastern Hemisphere,
    WAIT,,, what about money for wars?
    "My suspicion is that Turkey might soon play a role with it, in conversion of sovereign subprime (toxic) bonds like the USTreasurys and EuroBonds. Keep in mind that Italian Govt Bonds deserve a 10% yield, like the Greek Govt Bonds, except that the Euro Central Bank has been subsidizing these toxic (in)securities."
    Turkey is going to need to pull a HUGE rabbit out of a hat pretty soon.
    "During the Systemic Lehman Event, otherwise called the bust of the Everything Bond Bubble (from QE squared), some sovereign bonds will be defaulted upon, with painful consequences from the failures. During the upcoming bust, certain entire national banking systems will collapse."
    Armstrong broadly hints at this but, doesn't want to be accused of starting contagion.

    "Bear in mind the gigantic Egyptian gold investor, where something like 50% of his wealth was invested in gold bullion metal. The shrewd investors expect only PM to survive the big burn that comes, and not much else"
    The source is not certain how much longer the suppression of price and news can be maintained. It surely will not last another year, more like at most several months. Events are picking up in accelerated speed
    NO kidding
    Upon further reflection, the Jackass believes a widespread shutdown of principal globalist cabal banks might occur, which would alter the entire global financial framework, and unleash the gold demand.
    Two Key Events Will Unleash Gold

    Jim, "topics covered include the growing US isolation from failed foreign policy, the defiant disobedient reaction by European Union with respect to Russian sanctions and renewed Iran sanctions"

    So, the banking detonator seems to be Italian debt. Here is a good article for understanding that particular problem.
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...inhart-2018-05
    Once again, you may not care one bit about Italian debt. BUT, it is the contagion that you should care about.

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Yanis, European banks,,,eternal chckbook,,EROEI

    Yanis Varoufakis, " warned my interlocutors at a Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers:

    “If you insist on policies that condemn whole populations to a combination of permanent stagnation and humiliation, you will soon have to deal not with Europeanist leftists like us but, instead, with anti-Europeanist xenophobes who see it as their vocation to disintegrate the European Union.”
    "That is precisely what is happening now. Having vetoed much-needed EU reforms, Merkel’s successive governments guaranteed Europe’s fragmentation. Germany’s establishment media are now referring to the Italian economist whose appointment as finance minister was vetoed by the president as “Italy’s Varoufakis.”
    This room full of finance ministers bristled and said that; they would not be lectured like ignorant school children. They refused to even further listen to him.

    "Europe’s inability to get its own house in order has engendered a new Italian majority that is planning to expel a half-million migrants, blowing fresh winds into the sails of militant racists in Hungary, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, and, of course, Germany itself."
    Racists, my a$$. They are trying to survive an invasion by garbage.

    The population pressures in Africa are a result of COMPLETELY unrestrained reproduction.
    Side note; An Irishman's Insight On Africa - Important Read

    Moving on, “My philosophy is that all foreigners are out to screw us, and it’s our job to screw them first.” Thus argued John Connally, then-US Secretary of the Treasury, in 1971"
    "That was Paul Volcker, then the president of the New York Federal Reserve, referring to Nixon’s decision in a speech seven years later. The future Chair of the US Federal Reserve further declared that a “controlled disintegration in the world economy …[was] a legitimate objective for the 1980s.”
    "What distinguishes today’s situation from the one Europe faced in the 1970s is the Weimar-like implosion of Europe’s political center."
    "The US announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, while ostensibly aimed at China, was also the latest signal to Europe that the Trump administration’s “America First” rhetoric must be taken seriously."
    "Just as it is Trump’s aim to overturn the global system from which Germany has benefited for decades, Salvini and di Maio see the disintegration of the euro as a welcome development and a boon to their anti-immigration campaign. "
    The Euro Zone construct is a scheme to employ as many paper-pushers as possible. This is a socialist device to employ as many people as possible working for the government. At the same time, the overlay of the all-powerful unelected technocrats is a fascist control structure
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...ufakis-2018-05
    Varoufakis is BRILLIANT. I heartily disagree with him on just a few topics.

    The deep State seems to have misplaced $21 trillion. You (we) can only do that by kiting checks. Since all money is electronic, it's all stored in a bank somewhere. EVERYBODY can just keep writing checks and it will always end up in a bank. Nobody really knows how much of what is in a given bank.
    The U.S. GOV spends 24% of the gdp. Armstrong claims 36%. How would one ever know? Nobody is buying U.S. sovereign debt. How does it all keep going?
    Years ago, the U.S. comptroller-general, David Walker refused to certify the U.S. GOV books. They have never been certified for a long time. U.S. GOV claims that the BLICS and "other" are buying U.S. debt. I believe that this is just for show. GOV just keeps writing checks and, nobody is the wiser.

    "Fully 75% of federal spending is economically non-productive including military, debt service, social security. Unlike during the 1930s Great Depression when levels of Federal debt were almost nil, today the debt is 105% of GDP and rising. Spending on national economic infrastructure including the Tennessee Valley Authority and a network of federally-build dams and other infrastructure resulted in the great economic boom of the 1950s. Spending $1.5 trillion on a dysfunctional F-35 all-purpose fighter jet program won’t do it."
    "The Moody’s report goes on to state some alarming numbers: since 2009, the level of global non-financial junk-rated companies has soared by 58%, representing $3.7 trillion in outstanding debt, the highest ever. Some 40%, or $2 trillion, are rated B1 or lower. "
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/americ...spiral/5642744

    Vid titles;

    Hundreds Of European Banks Are In Trouble, This Is Going To Be A Disaster - Episode 1434a

    Is Deutsche Bank About To CRASH? - Bank Lays Off 10,000 Employees!

    White House Knows this" The next EU Crisis – is the Italian Banks"

    European Banks Are In Trouble, It Will Spread Like A Disease - Episode 1574a

    MARTIN ARMSTRONG - The Next Great Economic Collapse Will Begin by the Collapse of European Banks

    CRISIS IN TURKEY AFFECTS EUROPEAN BANKS

    Eurocrash! - Investors Flee European Banks
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    My advice to anyone in Europe is; look what happened to Greece and Cyprus. If you don't have much saved, keep it in Euro cash or U.S. dollars. If you have a lot of money, the dollar will crash last but, the Russian stock market has very good returns. If the R.O.W. is going back to a gold standard for bonds, it would be smart to hold gold. It is expected to go down under $1,000 U.S. and, shake out the weak hands.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    "Moody’s Credit Rating has just issued a warning that, barring some sort of miracle, as US interest rates rise, and they are, as much as 22% of US corporations that are being kept alive borrowing at historically low interest, not only in shale oil",,,,,
    Corn ethanol is a losing proposition from an energy standpoint.
    Shale oil is a losing proposition from a financial viewpoint.
    Both are losers based on EROEI.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Spain, N.J. ,Merkel,,, Dis-solution of Europe

    Armstrong can be "thick" when he wants to be. In this article, he claims that capital flows are holding up the world, NOT Central banks. Who does he think created all the hot money capital flows? Who is buying up all the bonds and some of the stocks? The BOJ admits to owning 70% of ETFs.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...up-us-economy/
    The European technocrats created a fascist control structure. The backlash has violently pushed socialists to the forefront. Spain is a perfect example where Sanchez has blown everybody else out of the water. Rajoy is getting his just rewards for attacking Catalunia.
    https://www.thespainreport.com/artic...ez-stuns-spain

    Merkel shoved her stupid programs down the throats of the German people. The backlash there is hopefully going to crush her AND her insane programs.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...risis-in-2019/
    Yanis Varoufakis predicted that the actions of the ECB would precipitate a crisis that would bring right-wing parties to power.
    Additionally, ;
    "The Communist Manifesto foresaw the predatory and polarised global capitalism of the 21st century. But Marx and Engels also showed us that we have the power to create a better world. By Yanis Varoufakis"
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/201...nist-manifesto

    6/04 Anti-immigrant party wins Slovenia as populist wave washes over Europe – ZH
    This is the backlash to the Kalergi Plan.
    The Coudenhove-Kalergi plan - The genocide of the Peoples of Europe | Western Spring
    The revolt against the destruction of the European tribes is shifting into high gear.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...usz-Morawiecki

    New Jersey is famous for it's corruption. BUT, corruption costs LOTS of money.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ncial-disaster
    6/04 In Vancouver, a housing bubble even owners want to end – NYT
    Hot Chinese money
    6/01 Housing bubble pathologies start to bite – the cycle has peaked – DC

    6/04 JP Morgan stunner: Italian exit may be Rome’s best option – ZH
    6/04 Italy’s euroskeptics and their currency ideas take center-stage – Reuters

    Keep in mind that new ideas are taking hold in record time. Any kind of currency change-over must be done SLOWLY.
    6/04 Germany’s Angela Merkel rules out debt relief for Italy – CNBC
    Yeah, right. Deutsche bank is going to need a rescue long before Italy goes critical.
    When Italy goes critical, the Bundesbank will be a giant crater.

    6/03 Europe is on the verge of a big new crisis, just six years after the last one – CNN
    6/03 Falling Deutsche Bank shares reignite ‘black swan’ worries – MarketWatch

    Buy more popcorn.
    6/04 Trade talks with China end in impasse and threats – Mish
    6/04 U.S. weighs more South China Sea patrols to confront ‘new reality’ of China – Reuters
    6/04 As US confronts China on trade, Taiwan tensions quietly build – Bloomberg

    Taiwan is just a pawn, not even a knight.
    6/04 Clapper: US meddled in foreign elections and conducted regime change – ZH
    I'm shocked, I tell you,,, shocked.
    ALL of this will create capital flight.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Conundrums,,,tariffs,,,Deutsche bank flameout,,,, EMs

    Conundrums;
    The upper loop people must keep the lower loop people working and, in debt. This is easily accomplished by manipulation of the currency and credit. If we stopped working, everything would come to a stop. At the same time, millions of workers are being squeezed out by automation and outsourcing. It is easy for the PTB to keep us poor but, it is very difficult to keep us working. It is even more difficult to keep us consuming. The banks have extended $trillions in credit that they know we can't pay back.

    There is no possibility of getting off the credit merry-go-round. Since the public cut back on the use of credit, the State has to take up the slack.
    We have a falling population and a falling energy consumption. There is no possibility that the public sector is going to revive the economy by increased spending. Here is a good comment.

    The way I see it, the US has a "double edged sword" kind of problem.

    1.) We need higher prices (inflation) to pay the debt monster and continue growing the debt monster (expansion).

    2.) The consumer cannot survive higher prices on anything important like food and energy....where they have no choice.

    They are trying to thread the needle between inflation and debt expansion. They need debt to ever grow but that will require higher prices. Until the greedy basterds start paying people some decent money, they can't afford higher prices. If you aren't making $20 an hour, then you are in survival mode. Even then you need someone paying a large portion of your healthcare insurance cost.

    I live in oil country and $85-$100 a barrel would be great for us, but it would kill the rest of the country. Look at what is going on in Brazil right now. A clear example of reaching a breaking point. It is going to kill them.

    Making up job numbers or creative earnings reports aren't going to cut it forever. It has lasted way longer than I thought it would and may go on a while longer, but it is growing clearer and clearer to more and more people that this can't go on forever......yet no one is changing anything.

    Oil may be the tip of the spear. The problem is not supply but COST. Every year we not only use 34.7 billion barrels of oil but we need to keep the cost down to a level that the "consumer" can afford it. Getting that much oil and keeping the price low is getting harder and harder. The rest of the world wants some of that "cheap" oil too.

    The dollar's lead pipe cinch on the oil market is being challenged. That will lead to higher prices for Americans. That is going to lead to economic "adjustments" for the US. The problem is the religion of MOAR. Everyone has to have MOAR. Moar money, moar interest, moar benefits, moar stuff.......moar, moar, moar,.....every quarter, every year. That is simply not sustainable.


    Africa, "Bear in mind that we began to warn of China's growing 'colonization' of Africa back in 2010, noted China's increasing militarization of Africa in 2015, and recent warnings from US Generals that China and US are "on a collision course in Africa,"
    Africa wants to drop the dollar in favor of the Yuan.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...e-chinese-yuan

    China says that tariffs will make them abandon all trade treaties.
    China warns all trade deals are 'void' if US imposes tariffs, other trade measures - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
    India abolished 500 and 1,000 Rupee notes in an effort to get more control and more taxes. It is apparently not working.
    Cashless society in India: Demonetisation gives way to chaos

    Deutsches Bank is following the same financial path as Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns. Worth a read.
    Weekend Reading: Just A Pause That Refreshes? | RIA
    The specter of a bail-in will send investors running pretty soon.

    Here is a long comprehensive pdf that lays out a LOT of information.
    https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-c...t-Storm-LR.pdf
    It is in 5 parts.
    "The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output(and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that
    the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel"

    Emerging Markets Index
    https://i0.wp.com/www.dollarcollapse...00%2C490&ssl=1

    EM bond index,
    https://i2.wp.com/www.dollarcollapse...00%2C504&ssl=1
    The EM currencies are falling and, this makes it much more difficult to service dollar-denominated debt.
    https://i2.wp.com/www.dollarcollapse...00%2C579&ssl=1
    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/emerg...et-chaos-four/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Oil, Italy & Turkey

    The big institutional investors can not afford to engage in wishful thinking and wilful blindness. There is plenty of that to go around.
    6/01 US payrolls rise 223,000, jobless rate matches historic low – Bloomberg
    6/01 Record 95.9 million Americans no longer in labor force – ZH
    6/01 US 10-year yield jumps back above 2.9% after better-than-expected jobs data – CNBC

    6/02 The US economy suddenly looks like it’s unstoppable – CNBC
    6/02 Japan’s fiscal discipline wavers as ageing pressure mounts – Bloomberg
    Japan never had one iota of fiscal discipline.
    6/02 Fed rate hikes always create ‘a meaningful crisis somewhere’ – MW
    Yes, and contagion follows.

    6/02 Deutsche Bank downgraded by S&P over restructuring plans – MarketWatch They can't possibly restructure without fresh money. Word gets around.
    6/02 “Bank of Mum and Dad,” huge prop under UK housing bubble, is out of liquidity – WS
    6/02 ‘Something has to give’: Italians back euro but rail against EU’s rules – Guardian
    6/02 Juncker: Italians need to work harder and be less corrupt – Guardian

    Last week, a technocrat threatened to teach Italy not to ever elect a populist GOV in the future. Junker is trying to up the ante.

    OIL;
    “the depletion that has to be replaced is about 8% of total supply, which comes out to approximately 8 million barrels a day per year. Most of this has been made up by pre-2014 drilling but in the next four years will fall short very considerably as drilling has collapsed 50%.”
    "To add to this, Societe Generale has forecast that US sanctions might remove as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude from the global market."
    "The US is in a relatively comfortable position. US oil production has reached 10.7 million barrels per day – enough for domestic needs. And shale oil production is expected to rise to a record 7.18 million barrels a day next month, according to the US Energy Information Administration."
    YES, all pumped at a loss financed by hot money from the junk-bond market,,,, that investors are abandoning.

    "The EU – at least rhetorically – now wants to pay for Iranian oil in euros. Add to it the Trump administration’s ultimatum to Chancellor Merkel: give up the Nord Stream II gas pipeline from Russia or we will slap you with extra tariffs on steel and aluminum "
    Yep, strangle Russia or, we will slap you down.
    "Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf, it’s no secret among traders that sooner or later it must be factored in that Iran, in the eventuality of a US attack, “has the power to bring down Western economies by destroying 20% of the oil production in the Middle East. And Russia has that power too. Russia is largely self-sufficient for its needs. It can win this as an economic battle rather than a military one”."

    "The US seems to be extending the proverbial “offer you can’t refuse” to the EU; an elusive, assured delivery of LNG in the (unlikely) event of a cutoff of Russian natural gas to the European Union.

    First of all, Gazprom has no intention to ditch its extremely lucrative European market. Moreover, this supposed American LNG capacity “does not exist as yet in the United States"
    "In Brussels, there’s increased recognition that US pressure on Iran, Russia and China is out of geopolitical fear the entire Eurasian land mass, organized as a super-trading bloc via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), is slipping away from Washington’s influence."

    "It’s also no secret among Persian Gulf traders that in the – hopefully unlikely – event of a US-Saudi-Israeli war in Southwest Asia against Iran, a real scenario war-gamed by the Pentagon would be “the destruction of oil wells in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]. The Strait of Hormuz does not have to be blocked as destroying the oil wells would be far more effective.”

    And what the potential loss of over 20% of the world’s oil supply would mean is terrifying; the implosion, with unforeseen consequences, of the quadrillion derivatives pyramid, and consequentially of the entire Western financial casino superstructure."
    Bibi isn't worried.
    Oil and gas geopolitics: no shelter from the storm | Asia Times
    Pox Americana is great at stealing and destroying. It isn't good at building and trading.
    "The US Supreme Court Chief Justice Warren E. Burger once said: “We may well be on our way to a society overrun by hordes of lawyers, hungry as locusts, and brigades of judges in numbers never before contemplated.” These words seem to be very much on point in Europe."
    Good article.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rman-internet/

    (Erdogan) He has reportedly already claimed that the US and Israel are waging an economic war on Turkey. And for once he may be right. A few weeks ago Erdogan called on all member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to boycott all Israeli products.
    "On May 1, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the Turkish economy to double-B-minus. Economic war? Feels a bit more like a political war."

    "Italy, like an increasing number of Eurozone nations, is looking for a way to get its head out of the Brussels/Berlin noose that’s threatening to suffocate it. If the EU doesn’t react to this, and soon, and in a positive manner it will blow itself up. Yes, if Italy started to let its debt balloon, the European Commission could reprimand it and issue fines. But the Commission wouldn’t dare do that. This is Italy. This is not Sparta."
    https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...is-not-sparta/
    6/02 Turkish stocks, lira tumble on capital control rumors – Zero Hedge
    Yep, how to destroy an economy without spending a dime.

    " Argentina spent the last 3 years borrowing an enormous amount of money; it has defaulted on its international debt 7 times since its independence in 1816; and spent most of the last decade in investment purgatory"
    "Like Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, Argentina lies at the outer edge of this known universe, far from other EM countries like China, Peru, Indonesia and Mexico and Vietnam, and lightyears away from the developed world. Only in a world of financial repression by central banks could a country like this issue an oversubscribed 100-year bond."
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...jpmorgan-chart

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Deutsche bank,,, unemployment

    Armstrong has all the info and details but, goes along with the party line that unemployment is 3.8%. Even the BLS admits that MANY millions are not in the labor force. I think that he is just playing it safe in public announcements.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-up-the-world/
    Here are the numbers from John Wiliams, Alternate Unemployment Charts

    "Deutsche Bank has now been classified as a problem bank by FDIC "
    "A merger of BNP with Deutsche Bank would mean Germany is subservient to France. That is not “politically” acceptable. "
    "rom the very beginning when the committee in charge of creating the Euro came to our WEC in London, I warned that (1) there would be no single interest rate, and (2) without a debt-consolidation, the Euro would NEVER compete with the dollar and ultimately fail. "
    "In the EU, because the debts were never consolidated, then the failure of one brings down the whole because each member state is RESERVE status."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-problem-bank/
    The Eurocrats engaged in wishful thinking and dismissed the warnings from Armstrong.
    Here is an interesting article about; how much currency is in circulation AND, how much gold is needed to back currency in circulation.
    https://www.goldmoney.com/research/g...efcode=dollarc

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    $7 trillion algos,,,Today, Spain,,,sovereign debt building up pressure

    Cross post; Trump has been outmaneuvred by the swamp.
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/who-ru...rica-2/5608802
    Armstrong is very convincing in his claim that U.S. sovereign debt will collapse. We already know that private investors shun it. So, when the train wreck hits the U.S. Treasury, will the israel-firsters work to save America?

    " In total, index funds represent $7 trillion of U.S. stock funds that have no active manager. All buying and selling are done automatically. Active management has gone out of fashion, Puplava noted, and as this sea change occurs, the market’s ability to price companies diminishes.

    Ownership of stocks in the S&P 500 is concentrated with three companies; Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. They represent about 88 percent of the S&P 500, and if we include Schwab and Fidelity, over 90 percent of the S&P 500 is basically now in the hands of five companies. "
    Liquidity Crisis Coming: Here, There, Everywhere « Financial Survival Network
    So, what will the algos do when there is a big hiccup?

    I have to emphasize SPEED. Yesterday, Italy was ready to blow. Today;
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8377331.html
    Rajoy was going to be Mr. tough guy,,, suck up to Brussels and, slap down Catalunia. Buena Suerte

    "Seattle is in the list even before they impose this new outrageous tax of $275 per employee for companies that do more than $20 million in business annually. They claim it is for the homeless people"
    "Once a government gets its hand on a tax, it is used wherever they need money and they never let it go. Like tolls on bridges and tunnels that were said to be there just to pay for the construction. The tunnels into NYC made so much money, the Port Authority then used it to build the World Trade Center. "
    And MOSSAD knocked it down.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-homeless-tax/

    "I really understand that debt is money that pays interest. That is the real money supply which is leveraged. It is the interest that keeps expanding the debt and forcing taxes higher and higher until it can’t expand anymore. Is this the end game?"
    Take a look at this graph and, find 1913
    https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...IntAsTotal.jpg
    "Can you imagine that the debt of all nations is about to explode with the slightest uptick in interest rates?"
    "The Quantitative Easing in Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets. The central banks buy everything. The Bank of Japan bragged how they bought 97% of the new debt. Hello! That means there is no market!"
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...pays-interest/

    Armstrong, " really do not know who makes up this nonsense. They clearly do not look at history nor do they understand human nature. We WILL crash and I hope the BURN then becomes possible where we get reasonable reform without the totalitarianism that is so common."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ing-the-world/
    Keep in mind that Armstrong himself is completely convinced of the crash. He mentions that the big funds don't want him well publicised. He mentions that you might want to pick up some canned goods,,, just in case that it does crash.

    Interest rates go UP;
    6/01 Loan repricings lead to market fatigue as deals pulled – Reuters
    6/01 The bond market just figured out that central banks CANNOT exit – Market Oracle
    6/01 “Shocked” Deutsche Bank sees its stock hit all-time low – Zero Hedge

    Hey, this is the information age,,, word get around.
    6/01 Italy shows why the euro has to be abandoned if Europe is to be saved – Lars P Syll
    EFF Europe,,, viva, France, England, Scotland, Ireland, Espana, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Sweden, Danmark, Norway, Netherlands,,, and all the rest.
    Germany and Belgium can get stuffed.

    5/31 Global growth too dependent on cheap borrowing — OECD – Guardian
    They should have figured that out $200 trillion in the past.

    5/31 Italy’s Cottarelli opens door to possible eurosceptic government – Reuters
    6/01 Socialist chief Pedro Sanchez set to become Spain’s Prime Minister – Reuters

    Don't forget the new tariffs.
    5/31 Trump slaps steel, aluminum tariffs on Canada, Mexico, EU – CNBC
    5/31 Canada announces retaliatory tariffs – CNBC
    6/01 Abe slams U.S. vehicle tariff hikes as ‘unacceptable’ – Japan Times
    Trump wants to ban German cars from America - Roadshow - CNET

    SPEED!

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Italy in the fast lane

    The EU will blow and, it appears that Italy is the detonator. I've already mentioned that; centralized control brings centralized contagion. Here is a short article on contagion.
    https://capitalistexploits.at/2018/0...ord-contagion/
    The technocrats figured that they had the European tribes roped and bound, with no escape. Humans have a way of creating work-arounds. Here is one that is particularly terrifying,,, to the CBs
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ndation-widget

    Here is a good, short article about how, the technocrats have framed this as a battle. A battle against the Italians?? Is that the framework of the eurozone? NO WONDER the EU wanted to build an EU army. NOT for Russia. Nope, they wanted an army to thrash their own people into line.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ndation-widget

    C.H. Smith wrote that all plans must have an escape valve. JFK wrote that "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
    The Technocrats designed the EU with no plan "B",,, NO way out.

    5/31 Italy could be the next Greece — only much worse – CNBC
    Yeah right,, 20-20 hindsight. The bankers loaned to Greece knowing that it was a deadbeat-borrower. They also knew that the EU did not have a common debt market. They had to have known that their loans would go bad. Did they loan to Greece hoping to take Greek land and assets in return for failed loans? Of course.

    5/31 Brazil economy slammed as nationwide strike intensifies – ZH More capital flight.
    5/31 For-sale signs vanish and March home prices jump 6.8 percent – MSN
    5/31 Portland metro home prices up 6.7% in March – Oregon Live
    5/31 Why are 1 in 4 Millennials still living with mom? Lack of affordable housing – CBS

    Just wait until the hot money flows into food commodities too and, we can't afford food along with housing.
    Great Britain imports many thousands of criminals, and, they commit crimes. The solution; get rid of pointy knives.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...me-judge-says/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    borrow like there's no tomorrow,,, housing,, gold & silver

    5/30 Italian banks under scrutiny, face downgrades – Bloomberg
    5/30 Italy’s eurozone crisis: no easy fixes for the European Central Bank – Guardian

    NO fixes at all.
    5/30 Stock market borrowing at all-time highs, increasing risks – Naked Capitalism
    The US Alone Borrows $3 Billion Per Day - That's 80 % of world's savings- SGT Report
    US Treasury says Q1 borrowing set record of $488 billion - USA Today
    The US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week - CNN Money
    Rand Paul: U.S. borrows $1 million a minute | PolitiFact


    OK, what did we do with all this "money"?
    5/30 First-quarter US GDP revised to 2.2%, vs 2.3% growth expected – CNBC
    OK, so, all the money was pumped into the upper loop but, don't forget the offence contractors. What about the lower loop?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...e-20-has-begun
    5/30 Run-up in home prices is ‘not sustainable’: Realtors’ chief economist – CNBC
    5/30 Housing bubble pathologies start to bite – the cycle has peaked – DC


    5/28 Charles Schwab CEO recommends gold – Scott Carter
    "The month of May is a "delivery month" for COMEX silver, and the total amount of "deliveries" has reached a level not seen since 2007. As you can see below, the total amount of "deliveries" for May has reached 7,157 contracts. This is the highest one-month total since December of 2007, and it represents a total "delivery" of nearly 36,000,000 ounces of "silver""
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ver-deliveries

    The developed markets are not buying gold. The R.O.W. is buying LOTS of gold.
    https://news.goldcore.com/ie/wp-cont...ore.gif?x78236
    There is almost no available gold at the COMEX.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_9vIkeIr8w
    Here are the details on the long-running crash of the EU.
    https://thistimeitisdifferent.com/eu...-decade-charts

    "Those outside of Europe may be surprised to learn that Germany's exports are roughly equal to those of China ($1.2 trillion), even though Germany's population of 82 million is a mere 6% of China's 1.3 billion. Germany and China are the world's top exporters,"
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...re-both-doomed
    Turkey is suddenly in deep do-do.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...tary-collapse/

    Leave a comment:

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