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  • Danny B
    replied
    The fall of China,,, what else falls/

    At one time, the PBOC was creating more liquidity than the ECB, FED and BOJ all put together. Because of unrestricted international capital flows, the PBOC was floating the worldwide credit system. You might think that I am too focused on what happens in China but, you have to focus on the local effects of international capital. EVIDENTLY, global war against China is off the table because we don't want the cockroaches who are radiation resistant to inherit the planet. I'm not claiming the nuclear weapons are the ultimate weapon. Still, they would be used.

    I found an excellent article at Zero Hedge. You should read all of it. I'll cite part of it. The comments are even more informative than the article. Keep in mind that; if nuclear / kinetic war is off the table, the financial war will be extremely cut throat. Armstrong said that the world capital of finance would move to China in about 2032. I'm sure that America would like to prevent this.

    ZH Why An Economic War With The US Blows China Up
    “By putting more barriers in China’s path to US markets and, in the process, risking some short-term damage to the domestic and global economies, President Donald Trump could exact a heavy long-term cost on the world’s second-largest economy. Indeed, he may even threaten China’s chances of eventually entering the ranks of high-income countries."
    "change their development model if they are to make this difficult transition, powering through the dreaded “middle-income trap” that’s tripped up so many other developing countries…

    With external tailwinds turning into headwinds, China will need to rely far more on domestic demand to generate prosperity. To do so without building up risks in the financial system, Beijing would need to promote far greater household consumption "
    So, how does China increase domestic consumption when India, et al enforce a low global mean wage? How do they escape the demographic crash when their fertility rate is only 1.6. Their working population falls by 1 million a year. The price of changing over to automation falls every year.

    "after the US shut Huawei out of its markets, legislation to apply the same export restrictions to ALL firms listed under ‘Made in China 2025’ progresses through Congress, and suggestions fly the US might even go as far as placing Iran-style sanctions on any third party that IS prepared to sell crucial inputs to Huawei. Given Chinese households are swimming in debt and its housing bubble is the world’s largest,"
    "So says Bloomberg in ‘China’s Trade Worst Case: Growth Slows, Debt Rises, Companies Exit’.

    “Altogether, an economic war with the US blows China up. China would be cut off from Western markets, ideas, technology, and US dollar-flow long, long before it’s ready to replace the US for real.”
    Sighhh, this is short -sighted thinking. Here is a map of where all the people are.
    https://i.imgur.com/fkiemE2.jpg
    As far as being cut off from Western markets; there isn't going to be much in the way of Western markets after the bubble blows. Remember, we pay everybody with bogus treasury bills. China and Russia can develop all the tech they need. Cut off from dollars won't hurt them if they have enough gold.
    ", ‘China has three trump cards to win trade war with US’. Well, the second threat is nonsense, as we keep explaining, and doesn’t boost the credibility of the Global Times, to put it mildly; the last will accelerate the flood of firms out of China;"
    The Belt & Road program is geared to generating markets around the world.

    Now, for the comments.
    Batman 11America's secret weapon, neoclassical economics.

    China has made all the classic mistakes that everyone makes who uses neoclassical economics.

    They have inflated both real estate and stock markets with bank credit. They really got taken in by all that price discovery and stable equilibrium stuff.

    Their stimulus since 2008 has gone into all the wrong places that didn’t grow GDP; the private debt soared, but GDP didn’t. It’s a classic mistake.

    At 25.30 mins you can see the super imposed private debt-to-GDP ratios.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vASt...toCR-R&index=6

    Japan, the UK, the US, the Euro-zone and China.

    They have already learned the private debt-to-GDP ratio and inflated asset prices are indicators of financial crises.

    https://cdn.opendemocracy.net/neweco...t-13.52.41.png

    The West’s “black swan” is a Chinese Minsky Moment.

    As the Chinese understand the problem they are not going to try and cure a debt problem with more debt as we have been doing in the West since 2008. In the West, central banks dropped interest rates to the floor to squeeze more debt into our economies.

    Chinese bankers had inflated the Chinese stock market with margin lending in 2015.

    Set the scale to 5 years to see what happens to the Chinese stock market as their bankers inflate it with margin lending.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND

    The wealth is there one minute and gone the next, it wasn’t real wealth. GDP measures the real wealth in the economy.

    The Chinese wanted increased domestic consumption, but let housing costs soar.

    It was that neoclassical economics again, but they have now learnt that high housing costs eat into domestic consumption by reducing disposable income.

    Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)

    Once they have sorted out the mess left behind by their technocrats trained in neoclassical economics they will be ready to start growing again, but it could take a while.
    At least they have worked out what the problems are, unlike their Western counterparts.

    Batman again
    Where does this ****ty economics come from?

    In 5,000 years of human history those at the top have designed systems to maintain themselves in luxury and leisure.

    They got started almost immediately.

    Mankind first started to produce a surplus with early agriculture.

    It wasn’t long before the elites learnt how to read the skies, the sun and the stars, to predict the coming seasons to the amazed masses and collect tribute.

    They soon made the most of the opportunity and removed themselves from any hard work to concentrate on “spiritual matters”, i.e. any hocus-pocus they could come up with to elevate them from the masses, e.g. rituals, fertility rights, offering to the gods …. etc and to turn the initially small tributes, into extracting all the surplus created by the hard work of the rest.

    The elites became the representatives of the gods and they were responsible for the bounty of the earth and the harvests. As long as all the surplus was handed over, all would be well.

    It’s been the same ever since, the extraction methods have just got more sophisticated over time.

    Things were all going so well until the Classical Economists turned up and couldn’t help but notice that the European aristocracy were maintained in luxury and leisure, but never did a stroke.

    Things were taking a very dangerous turn for the powerful vested interests of the late 19th century who rather enjoyed their life of luxury and leisure. They needed a new economics to hide what the Classical Economists had discovered.

    Neoclassical economics was the answer.

    Its original architects would have been only too well aware of what they had hidden and changed to produce an economics that suited the powerful vested interests of the late 19th century.

    Free market fundamentalists in the US picked this economics up decades later not knowing what had been changed and then developed a whole ideology from it, neoliberalism.

    They then rolled it out globally.

    Neoclassical economics had been designed to meet the requirements of 19th century elites and was bound to appeal to late 20th century elites, which it did.

    Unfortunately, the Europeans took this economics and designed the Euro with it leaving them to suffer the most from the now unknown flaws within the economics.

    Capitalism actually works best with low housing costs; this gives you some idea of how bad neoclassical economics is.

    Batman,
    \ust read the classical economists to confirm.

    Adam Smith observed the world around him.

    “The labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money. But every savage has the full fruits of his own labours; there are no landlords, no usurers and no tax gatherers.”

    The classical economists saw three groups in the capitalist system.

    1) Employers / Capitalists

    2) Employees / Workers

    3) Rentiers

    “The interest of the landlords is always opposed to the interest of every other class in the community” Ricardo 1815 / Classical Economist

    What does our man on free trade mean?

    He was an expert on the small state, unregulated capitalism he observed in the world around him. He was part of the new capitalist class and the old landowning class were a huge problem with their rents that had to be paid both directly and through wages.

    Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)

    Employees get less disposable income after the landlords rent has gone.

    Employers have to cover the landlord’s rents in wages reducing profit.

    Ricardo is just talking about housing costs, employees all rented in those days.

    Low housing costs work best for employers and employees.

    Batman;
    Jeffrey Sachs created Putin's Russia - an official media source, the BBC, says so.

    A BBC documentary covers a young, naive Jeffrey Sachs and other US free market fundamentalists as they headed into Russia to make a right mess of things and pave the way for Putin.

    https://thoughtmaybe.com/the-trap/#top

    Part 3 – We will Force You to be Free (36 – 44 mins)

    Whoops!
    The US dreamed of an open, globalised world.

    China became a superpower and the US went into decline.

    Whoops!
    Last edited by Danny B; 05-19-2019, 06:35 PM. Reason: Ity jumped the gun

    Leave a comment:


  • Pot head
    replied
    Dirt minded

    Do your best scribbling.
    You will never achieve success.
    You are a blowhard.

    Leave a comment:


  • Allen Burgess
    replied
    Originally posted by Pot head View Post
    It seems the Fragile minded band together.
    I just might open a chain of restaurants and feature
    The WAAAAAH!!! Burger with cheese.
    French (sobbing sound) fries.
    And The Mother’s milkshake.

    Retarded nut case.
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • Pot head
    replied
    Proof

    Originally posted by Allen Burgess View Post
    Fool! Take another look at yourself:
    It seems the Fragile minded band together.
    I just might open a chain of restaurants and feature
    The WAAAAAH!!! Burger with cheese.
    French (sobbing sound) fries.
    And The Mother’s milkshake.

    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • Allen Burgess
    replied
    Originally posted by Pot head View Post
    You just can’t help yourself.
    You don’t know how to stop.
    Try.
    Seek another person out and tell them in person.
    Science is truth.
    Every other thing is not.
    Seek out the truth in science, become free of your obsession.
    Every ADULT knows about what you are writing because they are awake.
    Have you just come out of your coma?
    Do you consider yourself the tip of the spear?
    You are just parroting Alex Jones.
    Except for the links linking offsite, which puts a drain on the forum.
    I find nothing helpful on this thread.
    It ain’t science.
    Fool! Take another look at yourself:
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • Pot head
    replied
    Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

    You just can’t help yourself.
    You don’t know how to stop.
    Try.
    Seek another person out and tell them in person.
    Science is truth.
    Every other thing is not.
    Seek out the truth in science, become free of your obsession.
    Every ADULT knows about what you are writing because they are awake.
    Have you just come out of your coma?
    Do you consider yourself the tip of the spear?
    You are just parroting Alex Jones.
    Except for the links linking offsite, which puts a drain on the forum.
    I find nothing helpful on this thread.
    It ain’t science.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Desperation, yes,,,, war, maybe

    Sorry, I have to get more political and less economic. Obviously, the worst of both worlds is WAR.
    The president created WW II in the hopes that it would bring an exit from the Great Depression I. He blockaded Japan in the hopes that they would act,,,, an act of war. We all hope that this doesn't come to pass once again.

    Trump could win trade battle with China but lose the war
    Nobody is going to win this one.
    Comey Turns On Brennan - Fired FBI Chief Claims Brennan Pushed Junk Dossier in IC Report
    Baker Rats On Comey - FBI Brass “Quite Worried” Comey Would Appear To Be Blackmailing Trump
    This is tearing us apart.
    DC Police With Battering Ram Raid VZ Embassy And Arrest Anti-Coup Activists
    This was VERY bad when the Iranians invaded the American embassy in Teheran,,,, but, it's OK if we do it.
    Ted Cruz wants The new 6th branch of the US Military to fight 'Space Pirates’ (ETs)

    Half of Americans are just one paycheck away from financial disaster
    NOT the ones in D.C.
    SAT Tests Will Now Score On The Basis Of Applicant’s Social ‘Adversity’ And Background

    IQ deficient College Applicants to Get extra points on their SAT Tests For ’Adversity'

    They can't ALL get government jobs. What happens when they apply in the private sector?
    Davos Elitist Celebrates 'Discussions' Being 'Quickly Erased From Social Networks’
    Ah yes, erase the narrative. BUT, they didn't count on the newest terror that is attacking them. Soph has been on youtube for a couple of years, and she strikes terror into the hearts of the establishment. she is only 14.
    https://www.*****ute.com/video/OdaUDeAGIck/
    US Continues to Escalate TensionsRaising Fear of Imminent War With Iran
    Trump Readies a New War on Iran’s Economy
    Trump declares Iran To Be A 'national emergency'


    The U.S. military has never loaded a single oil tanker. Like the scorpion that stings itself when it has been attacked by an impossible adversary, Iran can and will take out every bit of oil infrastructure in the M.E.
    US military complex is a ‘malignant virus’ that's evolved to defend itself

    Why is US always 'stumbling' or 'sliding' into war? How the media misleads with language

    French Incomes Are Below America's Poorest States...And The Protesters Know It
    5/17 Downward mobility creates “deplorables” – Charles Hugh Smith
    UK Cops Fine Pedestrian £90 ($115) For Covering Face From Facial Recognition Camera

    There is a lot of desperation creeping in to State actions.
    Syria to exhaust all means to retake Israeli-occupied, Stolen Golan
    They have said that they are ready for invasion.
    EU Fines 5 Major Banks 1 Bln Euros for Cartel Collusion
    Evidently, these banks did NOT pay off the right person.
    /17 ‘Potentially imminent threat’ from Iran grips Washington – Politico
    5/17 “Allies are aghast”: Is John Bolton replaying his Iraq war playbook with Iran? – VF


    5/17 Peter Schiff: ‘we have been riding on a Chinese gravy train’ — and it’s over – MM
    5/17 The everything bubble – and the asset class that’s still cheap – Claudio Grass
    5/17 Only 30% of US corn fields have been planted, 5 year average is 66% – Zero Hedge
    5/17 Global air freight volume plunges in a sign of economic stress – Zero Hedge


    A note on stocks.
    " “The average bear market lasts 1.4 years on average and falls 41% on average.-The average bull market (when the market is rising) lasts 9.1 years on average and rises 476% on average.”
    While the statement is not false, it is a false narrative."
    "Here are the basics of math.

    If the index goes from 100 to 200 it is indeed a 100% gain.
    If the index goes from 200 back to 100, it is only a 50% loss.
    Mathematically it would seem as if an investor is still 50% ahead, however, the net return is actually ZERO."

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/str...ends-the-game/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Creeping contagion

    5/16 The Social Security black hole has arrived – Wall Street Window
    So, somebody DID notice.
    5/16 The gig economy is breaking capitalism – Medium
    The lack of living wages is breaking everything.
    5/16 Global trade collapsing to depression levels – Zero Hedge
    Powell did his little squeeze in December. That caused a coronary. Trump essentially pushed the world off a cliff with his tariffs. I suspect that both Trump and Powell were taking advice from the FED,,, that has 200 PHDs working for it. Remember that Mnuchin said that A.I. would not take jobs for 50---100 years. The District of corruption is a VERY well paid echo chamber where everybody thinks that they have the answers.
    Bernanke bet the farm that he could fix everything. It wasn't his farm that he blew up.

    5/16 China has propped up global markets since December – is this about to end? – Birch
    The rivers of (non-QE) liquidity flowing out of China have been created to prop up China. They are propping up everything. China can't very well cut them off.
    5/16 Corporate debt may be an economic “brush fire” that could burn the economy – Birch
    The financialization of everything means that contagion will burn EVERYTHING
    5/16 Profits fall at Japan’s top three banks as economy slows – Reuters
    Royal Bank of Canada (USA)(NYSE:RY) and two other Canadian banks are being heavily shorted by an investment legend, Steve Eisman

    Apparently, the sharks smell blood. Remember the contagion. They can NOT close just a few banks. all or nothing.

    "2 days ago - Shares in Metro Bank, until recently the UK's fastest growing high street ...rumours on social media, sparking fears that a mini bank run was under way. "
    5/16 Median home prices rise to $400,000 in Reno – KTVN
    5/15 Stronger home sales boost builder confidence in May – CNBC


    As the economy tanks, the hot money flows into housing and drives out the people who actually want to live in a house. Bernanke and Greenspan started up the hot money train to save the banks. Since 2005, there has been no increase in the number of owner-occupied housing.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...us-since-1975/
    The builders have been building JUST for the speculators.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    So much writing,,,, so little understanding

    "Given the massive intervention and monetary manipulation experiment by central banks over the last decade, the amount of distortions created in the market, as well as the record debt accumulation at all levels of the economy, have given rise to considerable risks for investors."
    Yeah, yeah Been there, read that.
    "the persistent and aggressive manipulation keeping all interest rates at ultra-low levels since 2008 has led to massive undesirable developments. As the state’s interest burden fell, politicians wasted money that could have been used productively somewhere else. In addition, due to this overly accommodative environment, inefficient companies stayed in the market, reducing the resources and employees available to other more promising companies. "
    102 million Americans of working age are not in the labor force. These zombie companies keep that number from going higher. If / when they collapse, the number of unemployed will go much higher.THE CURRENT MONETARY ORDER IS NEARING ITS END | Claudio Grass
    Even reading Armstrong, he has a strong slant towards the viewpoint of the investor. AKA, a non-producer who rents out money,,, usually not his. This is a long-standing blind spot of the money renters. They assume that they can survive just fine even when the consumers are flat broke. The corporate mentality is total blindness to anything not directly under the control of the corporation.

    5/15 China’s retail sales growth slumps to 16-year low as trade war risks rise – US News
    The lower that consumption goes,,, the more that the CB has to pump in to keep the bubble inflated.
    5/15 Retail sales fall in April and show broad weakness in key part of the U.S. economy – MW
    5/15 More than half of Greeks aged 25-34 live with parents – Ekathimerini
    5/15 62% of millennials are living paycheck to paycheck, says study – Zero Hedge
    5/15 US birth rate plunges to all-time low as more women choose careers over families – ZH

    ALL of this is deflationary at a time that the credit bubble needs to grow.
    5/15 Social Security just ran a $9 trillion deficit, and nobody noticed – The Hill
    Nobody WANTED to notice.

    5/15 Yuan down, gold price up as Trump urges Fed to ‘match China’s money pumping’ – BV
    5/15 Trump asks the Fed start a currency war with China – Mish

    If the dollar goes up, it attracts outside investment.
    if it goes down, it makes more competitive at exporting.

    "Neoliberal financialization and Fed goosing of risk assets are why the nation's wealth has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of financial elites.As you can see in the charts below, the gains reaped by the top 10% were concentrated in the top 1%, and the gains of the top 1% have been concentrated in the top .01%."
    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Economy Has Fundamentally Changed in the 21st Century--and Not for the Better

    Leave a comment:


  • Pot head
    replied
    Exactly My Point

    No response just like someone brainwashed.
    As always more links to nowhere and more dragging down of the forum.
    Let it stop.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Armstrong, the GOV and you

    The State seems to always grow regardless of the condition of the underlying economy. To do so, it is usually necessary to lock down dissent.

    'Democrat Sen. Charles Schumer of New York declared that “the era of a shrinking federal government is over” and proposed taking advantage of the attacks to create a “‘new’ New Deal” of government security. Schumer said, “For the foreseeable future, the federal government will have to grow.” '
    "In order to defeat terrorism, government power must be increased. Historical studies show that government tends to grow both in power and in size during any war. World Wars I and II and the Cold War provided tremendous opportunities for growth in government power and size. They can call virtually anything a threat to national security"
    'The confiscation of our property and the elimination of our human rights always takes place rapidly. It is the demands of governments whenever they conjure up a good urgent crisis"

    "ANSWER: Governments know there is a massive problem on the horizon. They let Bitcoin trade to familiarize people with cryptocurrency. There is an agenda to eliminate cash, and we may see that hit in Europe and Australia before anywhere else"
    'The US used 9/11 to further the power of government. All the constitutional rights we had and the generations who fought and died to preserve our freedom were usurped, not by an invading army, but by our own government."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...further-power/

    "ANSWER: It is hard to say. My concern is what comes after Trump. "
    "Maximinus I (235-238 AD) who declared that all wealth simply belonged to the emperor in a communistic fashion. What took place, however, was the complete breakdown of society. Wealth was driven underground and money was hoarded causing VELOCITY to collapse as cash flow in circulation vanished and hoarding prevailed. We certainly have this post-2007 in the FATCA age where the money is the target and governments declare any money outside their borders is to be confiscated as money laundering. '
    "Maximinus’ confiscation of wealth caused the economy to implode as commerce ceased fostering an economic depression,'
    "Maximinus ordered the wealth of all temples to be confiscated as well. We have states arguing for the confiscation of 401Ks led by California. This is why the smart money is leaving California in a mass migration to the non-taxes states such as Texas and Florida."

    "Not even the gods were respected by Maximinus whose view was they never answered prayers because they did not exist. This is not something which is even off the table. The IMF threatened the Vatican to deny it access to the SWIFT system shutting down unless it also agreed to report the origin and destination of all movements of money.'
    "There is no hope of returning back to the days when government functioned. It seems that we are cascading toward complete collapse. The danger after Trump is that we may move toward an authoritarian form of government."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/h...oman-timeline/

    Cuba imports 2/3 of their food supply,,, much of it chicken. I've been there and, they have plenty of resources. Since they (mostly) don't allow good old capitalism, nobody can get rich. Even Fidel Castro said that their economic system just doesn't work. If they can't even supply enough chicken, they have a serious problem.

    If U.S. GOV tries to grow at all costs,,,, and starts confiscating everything they can get hold of, investment will stop and wealth will be hidden away. if food production stops because there is no profit in it, the cities will be in deep trouble.

    In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky. The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed.

    So, we are nearing the final meltdown of fracking,,,,, a complete economic collapse from runaway debt,,, crop loss from the solar minimum combined with the pole flip.

    China is using the social credit system to lock down ANY dissent. The specter of terrorism is used to justify any and all laws that the State wants here in America.
    What could go wrong?

    Leave a comment:


  • Pot head
    replied
    Piffle and hoohaw!!

    Can you post anything that is a circuit or a photo of your science project because your posts are only read by you.
    Some posts may be read but seriously, who reads this **** and why all the ****ing links?
    You need a girlfriend or something?

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    No more speedbumps,,, from now on, it's land mines

    If you are invested in stocks, this page of charts should give you a good indication of when the markets will top ,out.
    https://northmantrader.com/2019/05/13/deal-vu/

    Armstrong has plenty to say.
    "It is clear QE is dead. However, at the same time it has trapped all central banks. "
    yep, the upper loop is stuffed to the gills with liquidity.
    "the very reason why the West will collapse and the financial capital of the world will move to China, who has come out and stated publicly that they will not engage in QE."
    Yes, of course, we trust the Chinese. The PBOC created more fresh liquidity that the BOJ, FED and ECB all put together. BUT, don't worry, they won't do QE.
    "As to how will this play out, I can only say get ready. This is most likely the last straw that will eventually break the back of the monetary system. The general press will not understand that this shift in policy was the last straw. They will not even understand the ramifications for probably two years."

    Armstrong, "Socialism has robbed the economic future of millennials. All of the programs have been based upon a Ponzi scheme from Social Security to Obamacare. The entire foundation of socialism is constructed on taking other people’s money. Naturally, they always point the finger at the rich. But the social programs are really based upon one generation paying for the previous. In Europe, they call them the “Lost Generation” because unemployment is running at 50-60% levels among the youth. If we simply add up what we have all paid into these programs with inflation over our lifetimes, whatever we eventually receive back is a fraction of the real wealth we contribute.

    The Ponzi scheme of socialism is coming to an end. It has wrongly deprived the lower class of investing, for the money taken from them for their future is restricted to government bonds. The rich get rich, not from wages, but from investments — the very thing governments deny the lower classes."
    What a bunch of BS. The lower class wasn't deprived of investing. They were deprived of a living wage.
    "During WEC in Rome I came to understand that the issue with QE is that it did not create any inflation in the USA"
    The markets went up 250% but, there was not any inflation.
    "The primary reason QE fails is because the economy is global. Central banks can no longer manage the economy, for the money does not remain in isolation. Additionally, as I pointed out in Rome, they may have negative interest rates, but that does not pass through. You cannot borrow money from a bank at negative rates."
    The primary reason that QE did not bring a recovery is because the liquidity got stuck in the upper loop where it just circulated as instruments, NOT consumption.

    5/14 Nasdaq drops 6.3% in 6 days, as Uber & Lyft IPOS turn into colossal flops – WS
    5/14 Peter Schiff: the Uber IPO fiasco and the writing on the wall – Schiff Gold
    5/14 Trump says if Fed cuts interest rates, US will win trade war – CNBC
    5/14 Williams: Fed “must prepare for lower interest rate world” – Reuters

    NOBODY is going to win the trade war. Only 6 countries benefited from globalization. Everybody knows that it is time to reverse it.

    Bannon cheers trade war, hopes China Govt Falls How very subtle.
    Kunstler.
    "The be-Muellered, bothered, and bewildered American public may find US-China trade talks about as interesting as a rain delay in an Orioles-Chisox game, but the Friday collapse of negotiations may be marked by historians as the day that the global economy died."
    "The “recovery” from that was based on Wall Street’s premier swindle: the shale oil “miracle,” based on high-risk lending to companies that couldn’t make a red cent "
    "There is already enough tension in the world as it faces not just the end of a global trade fiesta, but a world-wide synchronized economic depression. This is the one from which there will be no “recovery” but only adaptation to lower standards of living and new arrangements for getting by. In other words, the contraction will be permanent."
    " With the economy fizzling, he will fight back Golem-style, like a demon from the underworld. But for all of Mr. Trump’s Teutonic neuroticism, he holds an advantage in that battle: the documented facts appear to show that he was unfairly persecuted for two years by opponents who outsmarted themselves in actually breaking the law,"

    https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...t-your-friend/

    As the pie shrinks, everybody is fighting harder to get a piece.
    Last edited by Danny B; 05-15-2019, 02:49 PM. Reason: What happened to my link?

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Bunker-buster bomb to be dropped on the FED

    "A failure to appreciate how big this really is explains why investors have been so willing to swallow unrealistic happy talk from both sides. The risk that needs to be discounted in the market isn’t a risk of higher tariffs, but the risk of WW3."
    "The U.S. and China were never going to sign a trade deal and blissfully return to the ways things were. That world is over. We now find ourselves in the very early days of a historic struggle to influence the future."
    "I’ve noted for months, the “trade war” is just one battle in a much larger, increasingly unstable struggle between the U.S. and China for global power and leverage to shape the next paradigm of world history."

    "Authoritarian boomer politician explicitly states he wants to ban cryptocurrencies because they threaten the USD as global reserve currency. "
    'The price soared higher after his comment and I immediately started wondering. Why is he saying this now? Do U.S. banks or the government have indications that sanctioned countries are either buying or using Bitcoin?"
    "As I mentioned in last week’s post, The Old World is Dying, Bitcoin is a transformative asset which allows humans to do stuff they could never do before. Is the old guard finally starting to sweat as they see their archaic, centralized tools of power become increasingly irrelevant? This is just more evidence that the old world in in fact dying."
    "Since then, global debt has added another $11 trillion to $244 trillion and remains sticky at around 318% of GDP."

    "The central bank added that loans to firms with especially high debt now exceed earlier peaks in 2007 and 2014.

    “The historically high level of business debt and the recent concentration of debt growth among the riskiest firms could pose a risk to those firms and, potentially, their creditors,” the Fed said."
    https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2019/0...l-debt-bubble/
    The CBs are on a treadmill That is speeding up.

    Historically, Whenever gov debt exceeded 80% of GDP, the situation was beyond recovery and, there was a default.
    Japanese government debt is about 260% of gdp.
    5/13 JGBs gain as intensifying trade war supports safe-haven debt – Reuters
    So, Japanese gov debt is seen as a safe haven.
    Is Japan the test case to see how and where public debt could be force-fed into an economy? Is Japan the test bed to; try to keep the economy growing at the same time that the population is falling? For all practical purposes, Japan has gone full MMT.

    If America goes full MMT and prints what the State needs, there would be no use for the FED. This prospect would induce current bond holders of public debt to trade this debt off for something else. Will the Chinese dump $1 trillion?
    Remember, the Chinese hang on EVERY word that Armstrong utters.
    "The government should just create the money it needs to cover its expenses"
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...s/trump-taxes/
    Japan may very well be the test bed for this exact idea. The MMT naysayers claim that we would have stupendous price inflation. Japan does NOT have appreciable price inflation.

    5/14 Yield curve inverts in 28 places: recession warning resumes – Mish
    The yield curve inversion is more of a barometer of investor confidence. The inversion doesn't bring recession. The lost confidence brings it.

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  • Danny B
    replied
    Tradfe war takes center stage,,,, Fulford

    First, China trade news.
    China Defies Trump Warning Not To Impose Tariffs On US Goods & Does Exactly That As Trade War Worsens

    Dow Dives 617 Points After China Retaliates On Trump

    Here's What Happens if China DUMPS Its $1 Trillion in US Debt Amid Trump Trade War

    Kudlow - Trump Has No Idea How Tariffs Work
    That is possible but, Mnuchin and the commerce dept must know.
    Trump: Beijing "Will Be Hurt Very Badly" If They Retaliate With More Tariffs
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...e-more-tariffs
    Trump isn't stupid and, he knows the bond market. Why is he backing China into a corner when he knows that there will be a lot of fallout?

    Benjamin Fulford may have the answer. He has made some startling predictions and statements. Many of them prove true. ALL of them lie untouched by MSM. Here is an article that goes a long way in explaining many of Trump's actions. There is a following article on the same page that is quite good too.
    https://benjaminfulford.net/category...eekly-reports/

    Here is a good article on how Ponzi schemes tend to drain money from each other. It's a good read.
    We're Gonna Need More Bag-holders... | AdventuresInCapitalism | Small Companies--Big Upside

    5/13 Seven banks rigging the multi-trillion dollar foreign exchange market – GoldCore

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