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  • BroMikey
    replied
    Yes you talk all about the snare, all about how the trap works, bye
    bye FED is another subject. Our dilemma has been mapped out for
    generations, that is a no brainer. Getting someone to run thru this
    jungle making changes is beyond belief for many minds.

    Trump was born into the FED's crime system with piles of money to
    loose, he is dangling the FED now, as all of the reports and numbers
    you point out are made up. That's what the FED does. Course it's real?

    Pointless facts for the brainwashed.

    Big changes coming.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    China-India-Pakistan war,,, lots more speedbumps

    Armstrong;
    "You keep stating that the center of Finance will move to China. However, the world distrusts China, rightly so. How can they become the Financial Center if no one trusts them?"
    "ANSWER: That will come only after 2032. Keep in mind, the West will be tested and the failed system of continually borrowing is why the confidence in the West will break. After that, it will become the lesser of two evils"
    This is too much of a generalization.
    China's Debt Bomb - Bloomberg
    Debt, Not Trade War, Is China's Biggest Problem - Forbes
    China's hidden $6 trillion debt pile is an 'iceberg ... - Business Insider

    China is definitely printing like crazy. Armstrong claims that America is borrowing. Barely true. We're mostly printing. We are not far off from institutionalizing the process with MMT.
    The ECB is dead in the water. The BOJ has relied just on printing for years.
    Trump will tell the FED to jump into MMT OR, he'll dump the FED and get the Treasury to do it.

    Automation has reduced the labor force by so much, that the State will have to either; start up UBI or, let most people starve. No amount of infrastructure projects will create long-term employment.

    Armstrong is SERIOUSLY underestimating the problems of China. China definitely needs India to join up in it's Belt & Road project.
    China is diverting water from rivers that feed India. The problem is made worse because the monsoon has shifted. Both China and India are drying up fast. The aquifers under China are bad news.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/arti...water-conflict
    Here is a discussion / projection by Pakistan Defense about how a war between China and India would play out.
    https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/why-d...strong.621703/
    World War III Will Be Fought For Water – Colombo Telegraph

    China's Trillion-Dollar P2P Loan Industry Goes Bust
    Keep in mind that China has loaned out a lot of money. They are hoping for a default so they can take over a country's best assets.
    Vids;
    China's Debt Trap diplomacy, How China uses money to control and colonise countries ?
    5 Countries That Have Fallen into China's Debt Trap
    Malaysia Warns Philippines Over China Debt | Mahathir Mohamad Warns Duterte about CCP Loans
    Forced From Their Homes By Chinese Money – Cambodia’s Land Grab Victims

    Armstrong claims that the financial capital will move to China because 'money" will have more confidence there.

    "For his painstaking efforts to catalogue unrest in China—Mr Lu and his girlfriend had recorded more than 70,000 outbreaks in the three years before he was seized—the activist was found guilty last year by a court in Yunnan province of “picking quarrels and causing trouble”. He was given a four-year jail sentence."
    2019 Is a Sensitive Year for China. Xi Is Nervous. - The New York Times

    Beijing is in a serious water crisis.

    China houses 20% of the world’s population yet holds only 7% of the world’s fresh water. This undoubtedly leaves large cities like Beijing in a serious water crisis. Pollution problems are also a huge concern as more than one-third of China’s lakes and rivers are unfit for human, agricultural, or industrial use due to high pollution levels. Many believe this city will run out of drinking water by the year 2030."

    India to buy 100 more of the Israeli bunker-buster bombs used in attack on Pakistan terror camp
    India and Pakistan are already shooting. 1.4 billion people depend on the Indus and Ganges.
    (PDF) The Indus and the Ganges: river basins under extreme pressure ...
    I wouldmn't make any bets on the financial capital moving to China.

    The FED is angling to get MMT fired up.
    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/fed-whatever-takes/

    It is claimed that all financial / credit expansions must eventually come to an end.
    The ECB recently announced more QE /expansion. This time, markets responded the OPPOSITE of what was expected.
    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/something-huge-europe/

    6/09 BOJ Kuroda: G20 reaffirms commitment to use all tools to fight risks – Reuters
    6/09 ECB policymakers open to cut rates if growth weakens – Reuters
    6/09 Trump’s trade war & coming recession…the Fed can’t save us, but gold can – Ron Paul

    TOOLS ! what tools?
    Japan's population decline reached a new record in 2018 — Quartz
    GROWTH ! what growth?
    Europe's Economic Outlook Goes From Bad to Worse Amid EU ...
    https://www.bloomberg.

    Forget about gold saving you. You can't eat it. All those preppers who stock up on everything are forgetting the premier danger. If you have food and, nobody else does, you aren't going to eat it,,, unless you are very remote. Gold will preserve value but, it's usefulness is limited in a bad breakdown. If you really want gold coins, go to Ebay and, you can buy gold-plated tungsten coins.

    6/09 Doug Casey on what happens after the next war – International Man
    ET comes in and uses the planet for a study on the effects of hard radiation.
    6/09 Theresa May is a symptom of a crumbling system – Independent
    6/09 Angst and madness at the end of empire – Counterpunch
    6/09 Germany slides towards instability – Strategic Culture
    6/09 Hong Kong protest draws more than one million, organizers say – NY Times
    6/09 Tory choice: political extinction or Halloween Brexit – Mish

    PLANT A GARDEN

    6/09 Used-car wholesale prices surge, new cars sink deeper into carmageddon – Wolf Street
    6/09 Italy’s minibonds would either be illegal or useless: Finance Minister – Reuters



    "I have posited that the Fed’s balance sheet could swell to $10 TN during the next crisis. When the current Bubble bursts, the Fed and global central bankers will see no alternative than to flood the global financial system with central bank Credit. This is a terrible, reprehensible prospect.

    I warned ten years ago that QE was a slippery slope. After a decade, central bankers would surely today prefer to rebrand QE as a “conventional” – and elemental – part of their arsenals. But it will not be until the next bursting Bubble phase before there is a modicum of a “body of evidence” (from only one cycle) for assessing the effectiveness of history’s most radical monetary experiment. Today, global securities markets are eagerly anticipating the return of zero rates and more QE. Chairman Powell, Draghi and others are conveying the message that they are getting their arsenals ready."
    None dare call it MMT

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Creating a demand for MMT

    BroMikey, I don't normally listen to the X22 report because they give opinion, not numbers. There is so much financial news out there that I have to pare it way down.
    The report talks about setting the scene to cause a rejection of the FED. I posted an article from Bill Bonner. Here is a quote;
    "That is when the national authorities will haul out the cannons…

    They will load them full of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) — or “QE for the people.”

    Rolling barrages of fiscal “stimulus” they will send raining down onto Main Street."
    https://dailyreckoning.com/a-tour-of-the-future/
    With wages falling and an unemployment rate of <22> %, there just isn't enough money circulating in the lower loop. Trump may euthanise the FED but, it would be very difficult to bring back good wages and high employment. The global mean wage is "impossible" to escape. The demographic crash and low birth rate are not things that he can change. The same is true for automation.
    Japan embarked on a huge program of infrastructure building. It didn't help them much as far as jobs.

    The central banks around the world have been the nexus of war finance. Should Trump manage to kill off the FED, that would put a serious crimp in the war cycle.

    Leave a comment:


  • BroMikey
    replied
    Originally posted by Danny B View Post
    Reportedly, 40 million acres of American corn
    have missed being planted. There will probably be an equal amount of
    soy that won't get planted. Canada is a similar story. Much of the
    farmland is still flooded and can be forgotten for this season.
    Here is THE PLAN

    [VIDEO]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WiZvAnFqn0[/VIDEO]

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Water wars,,, more speedbumps

    Reportedly, 40 million acres of American corn have missed being planted. There will probably be an equal amount of soy that won't get planted. Canada is a similar story. Much of the farmland is still flooded and can be forgotten for this season.
    https://psmag.com/environment/the-fi...voc-on-farmers
    Parts of the Middle East have been flooded recently.
    Adapt 2030 has a lot of vids on the worldwide problems.
    https://www.youtube.com/user/MyanmarLiving

    Meanwhile, in other parts of the world, China is diverting water from Tibet to China. This is cutting back water to the major rivers of India.
    Chinese engineers plan 1,000km tunnel to make Xinjiang desert ...
    https://www.scmp.com › News › China › Society
    2 days ago - Downstream, in India, the river becomes the Brahmaputra, which joins the Ganges .
    Water Wars: Coming soon to a tap near you | Deccan Herald
    World War III Will Be Fought For Water – Colombo Telegraph

    Here is an article from Pakistan Defense that discusses a war between India and China.
    https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/why-d...strong.621703/

    India Records Second Lowest Pre-Monsoon Rainfall in 65 Years; Fails ..
    monsoon: June is going to be the worst month with very little rainfall ...
    High-alert called for drought in West, Southern states after pre ...
    It Hit 123 Degrees Fahrenheit in India This Weekend - Earther - Gizmodo
    5 days ago
    Parched India awaits monsoon rains as reservoirs begin to run dry ... 6 days ago
    Monsoon delay: 43.4% of India is reeling under drought - Scroll.in 3 days ago
    When the Earth becomes very thirsty - Times of India
    Yangtze lakes drying up as China's water crisis spreads | South China ...
    2 days ago

    Zero water day will come to a lot of places in Asia. is it the sun? Is it HAARP?
    Chances are that it is the wild weather caused by the weakening magnetosphere.
    Does your city make the list?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/paullau.../#172a71a41738

    6/08 Watch: world’s first raspberry-picking robot completes field tasks – Zero Hedge Another brick in the wall.
    6/07 Yuan tumbles after PBOC governor says “tremendous” room to ease – Zero Hedge
    Sooner or later, China is going to get in trouble with their printing press.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_g6y05kab9M&t=144s
    6/08 The Fed’s glue-sniffing announcement yesterday involving JPMorgan Chase – PSW There has been a lot of glue-sniffing. Some of the markets are pricing in THREE rate cuts this year.
    6/08 Manipulation is when you stop manipulating, Treasury Secretary says – GATA

    6/08 Bonds are signalling a slide in stocks – Casey Research
    6/08 “The skid is everywhere”, and the worst is yet to come – ECB

    6/08 Investors are deserting junk bonds as trade tensions sour mood – Business Times
    6/08 Pemex bonds tank after fitch ‘junk’ rating, Mexico slams downgrade – Reuters

    Maybe they shouldn't have pissed off Trump.
    6/07 The Fed can’t help housing or autos at this point – Newsmax
    6/07 Fed signals it will use QE aggressively to fight next recession – MarketWatch

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Kunstler and Bonner

    Just 2 articles that I don't need to excerpt.
    https://dailyreckoning.com/a-tour-of-the-future/

    https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...where-exactly/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    The purpose and, anatomy of the reset

    The Next Stage Of The Engineered Global Economic Reset Has Arrived

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    More MMT,,, 3 good articles

    Governments around the world are flat broke. In the EU, it is quite obvious that private investors have deserted the sovereign debt markets. The same is true to a certain extent with American sovereign bonds. Armstrong is predicting a collapse of sovereign debt around the world. The various States don't want to get flat-footed and, flat broke.
    the prohibition against allowing the government to borrow directly from its own central bank was written into the Banking Act of 1935 at the behest of those bond dealers

    Thomas Edison, "The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good also. The difference between the bond and the bill is that the bond lets the money broker collect twice the amount of the bond and an additional 20%. ... It is absurd to say our Country can issue bonds and cannot issue currency."

    The State does NOT have to borrow from the CB. This is a case of accepted wisdom that is actually, Accepted BS.
    The idea behind MMT is to get away from ANY kind of borrowing. You can understand why it is NOT popular with people who rent their money to the State.

    "This was to be expected: MMT not only threatens powerful vested interests in our societies, but also challenges the hegemony of mainstream macroeconomists who have been able to dominate the policy debate for decades using a series of linked myths about how our fiat monetary system operates and the capacities of currency-issuing governments within such a system.

    MMT allows us to break out of the illusory financial constraints that for too long have hindered our ability to imagine radical alternatives and to envision truly transformational policies, "
    " It explains how monetarily sovereign states–that is, states that issue their own currency, float it on international markets and only issue liabilities in that currency–can never run out of money or become insolvent. That is because, unlike households or businesses, which use the currency, the state issues the currency. "
    "They spend first–the central bank simply credits the relevant bank accounts to facilitate the spending requirements of the treasury"
    There is NO need for a CB when you have a treasury.
    "In fact, MMT is not a regime that you ‘apply’ or ‘switch to’ or ‘introduce’. Rather, it is a lens which allows us to see how our fiat monetary systems already work."
    The current money system hands the money directly to the money renters.
    This is an excellent article. You should read the whole thing.
    https://tribunemag.co.uk/2019/06/for-mmt

    Another good article.
    "To institute centralization on a global scale, the elites need an all-encompassing crisis that can be blamed on nationalism, protectionism, and the free market dynamic. They need a threat that will affect and terrify billions of people into demanding intervention by international organizations such as the IMF and the BIS, as well as a rationale to introduce monetary umbrella actions such as the induction of the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket system as a replacement for the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. They need something very similar to a world war. In this case, however, it will be more economic than kinetic.

    An economic world war has the distinct potential to cause all the elements of a collapse situation without the damage to vital infrastructure that inevitably comes with a shooting war. Because of the advantages the strategy provides for globalization idealist, I predicted this exact outcome would develop out of the trade war in my article ‘World War III Will Be An Economic War’, published in April 2018. Here are the trade war developments so far that support this theory…"
    https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...world-war-iii/

    I'm somewhat doubtful that it ill unfold like this. It may do this at the start but, the economy is too interlocked and too fragile. Energy distribution is the key element. NO, the SDR won't be accepted.

    "Since 2008, we’ve had more of the same but a more extreme version of Greenspan’s anti-deflation medicine. If Greenspan’s three-year experiment with sub 2% rates gave rise to the Global Financial Crisis, what was the world to make of the Bernanke-Yellen policy of 0% for seven years? Bernanke’s Federal Reserve also engaged in a completely unprecedented money printing binge called quantitative easing. '
    "y the 1998 - 2001 period, the conventional wisdom was to let bubbles run their course and then clean up the mess afterwards. But the Fed has failed to distinguish between credit driven bubbles and mania driven bubbles. The former are dangerous because they are connected with the credit system, the latter less so because people loose money but the crisis is not systemic. The 2000 dot.com bubble was speculative, but not credit driven so it did not turn into a systemic crisis when it popped. Of course 2008 was credit driven and it did metastasize throughout the system right up to the top of the food chain with large banks and the housing GSEs failing. "

    "When you are kicking around the idea of should I or should I not pop the bubble, this is a key distinction and the threshold question for policy. You should pop or defuse credit driven bubbles, but perhaps let speculative bubbles (most recently Bitcoin) run their course. The problem is that Fed policymakers do not seem to grasp this fundamental distinction. This leads to credit bubbles being allowed to spin out of control into systemic crises."
    "When banks are profiting from loan defaults, is this not a red flag? The Fed has explicitly embraced a policy of stoking asset prices in stocks and real estate to fight deflation, even if it means market instability as a result."
    As long as the banks make money, nothing else matters.
    "The key point of the book is that we made the choice, we ran out the tape for 10 years, but now we cannot get out of this cycle. The proverbial punch bowl is now glued to the table and the Fed is forced to keep refilling it."
    Another good article.
    https://www.theinstitutionalriskanal...James-Rickards

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    The shape of the next system is slowly emerging

    Trump is hard at work to reduce globalism. China has now joined the tariff battle by blacklisting American companies and persons. Sigh,,, some people just don't see it when they are being led.
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...d-what-will-be

    Armstrong writes about the history of a 2 currency nation. He projects / predicts the creation of an international unit of account IAU. This IAU would be based on a basket of currencies. there have been similar plans produced before. As the currencies get debased (usually to finance a war), the IAU gets inflated. The whole purpose of the Bretton Woods agreement was to PREVENT currency / bond market inflation. They did this by basing all currencies on GOLD.
    Read the article from Armstrong and, everywhere you see IAU,,, substitute gold.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...it-of-account/
    Remember, the world ALREADY has the SDR. The creation of some new BS instrument will NOT prevent inflation.

    Gold has long been referred to as a ; pet rock or, barbarous relic.
    Strange, the Central Banks AND the private banks buy as much gold as possible.
    https://sputniknews.com/business/201...deutsche-bank/

    The CBs can create liquidity all day long. In the end, they know just what this liquidity is worth if the economy is deflating.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...e-tested-again

    6/06 In double whammy, Fitch downgrades Mexico and Moody’s lowers outlook – Reuters
    Um, maybe they shouldn't have acted as a conduit for Chinese goods.
    6/06 Brace for impact: Italy poised to launch euro parallel currency – Mish
    6/05 Italy revives ‘alternative currency’ proposal – GATA

    THAT will be interesting.
    6/05 The ECB Is looking increasingly powerless – Bloomberg
    The ECB bought up every trashy bond that they could find. Now, the whole system is out of control.
    6/06 Dollar dump? Russia & China agree to bilateral trade in national currencies – RT

    The key is; read Armstrong about 2 currency systems. The world at large will NEVER accept the SDR because it is controlled by the IMF. There is NO instrument that anybody can come up with that will be acceptable to both East & West,, rich and poor.
    Gold is not an instrument. Gold could function perfectly as a reference value for all external currencies.

    Jim Willie has long predicted that; exactly this system would emerge.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Deflation,,, more China

    Markets are pretty quiet while everybody is trying to digest the tariffs on Mexico,,, recently graduated to out biggest trading partner. The China tariffs have motivated them to run all their exports through Mexico, Taiwan and Viet Nam. China is getting around tariffs by using 3rd parties.
    Free markets are driven by competition. Nobody brings something to market that has less value than what already exists.
    " While many voices seek to assure us these technologies won't displace human workers, the reality is cutting labor inputs is the core driver. What few pundits seem to understand (perhaps because they've never experienced a truly competitive market?) is that the rush to incorporate these technologies into existing enterprises is deflationary not just to prices but to profits.

    Reducing labor inputs and improving productivity of capital and the remaining labor force is not going to generate profits if competitors can access the same tools and processes. The race isn't to maximize profits, it's to survive the inevitable deflationary spiral in prices as competitors are forced to pass along cost savings to customers to retain market share."
    " Everyone counting on trillions in tech profits is overlooking the inconvenient reality of the S-Curve for cheap credit, cheap energy and cheap labor--the three drivers of global expansion. Once credit dries up or becomes more expensive, once cheap energy is only a memory (or future fantasy) and once employment sags under the pressure to reduce labor inputs, the ranks of those with the earnings or credit to buy, buy, buy will be thinned."
    https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay19...onary5-19.html

    "Is the decade-long tech bubble finally popping? Tech bulls are overlooking the fundamental reality that the drivers of Big tech's phenomenal growth--financialization and expansion into mobile telephony-- are both losing momentum."
    "I recently explored technology's ties to financialization and deflationary trends in prices and profits: Two Intertwined Dynamics Are Transforming the Economy: Technology and Financialization
    Technology Is Not Just Disruptive, It's Disastrously Deflationary"
    "Rather, each is extraordinarily deflationary to profits as each is readily commoditized."
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ubble-bursting

    ZH Schiff Warns: The Fed Is Going To Stimulate Inflation, Not The Economy
    "The Fed is going to go back to QE. They are going to do whatever they can to try to stop the bear market and to try to prevent the recession. But they’re going to fail. They are going to make it worse this time.”

    Bipartisan Support For Secret Accounting To Hide Missing 'Black Budget' Money
    "Since WWII, we have been building secret financial operations, whether it’s the 'Black Budget' or what some people call the 'hidden system of finance'... Secrecy is a huge financial addiction..."

    US-Mexico End Tariff Meeting Without Breakthough; Peso, US Futures Plunge
    Mexican or Mexican't?

    Well, as long as they are channelling Chinese goods, don't expect a breakthrough.

    Millennial Net Wealth Collapses, Study Finds
    Millennials will be trapped in a life of financial misery.

    How Connecticut's "Tax On The Rich" Ended: Middle-Class Tax Hikes, Lost Jobs, More Poverty
    In the past 30 years, just one U.S. state has adopted a progressive income tax: Connecticut... The results were disastrous.

    So, just what is Trump up to?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...trumps-madness

    Real estate is now the largest industry as a percentage of GDP.
    Greater Sensitivity To Interest Rates And More Leverage
    No wonder why the economy and markets are so addicted to and can’t live without low-interest rates. The danger is, however, the real estate sector is a highly leveraged industry. Real estate deflation the one the Fed fears most.
    https://global-macro-monitor.com/201...-fire-economy/

    OK, the banks stole our money through currency inflation. A one-person income could no longer support a family. Women went to work. The nuclear family collapsed,,,,along with mental health. Everybody has gone crazy with insecurity.
    "Loneliness, public-health experts tell us, is killing as many people as obesity and smoking."
    https://www.city-journal.org/decline...iness-epidemic

    The shocking rise in 'deaths of despair,' charted | Advisory Board Daily ...
    http://www.advisory.com/daily-briefi...ths-of-despair
    Mar 14, 2019 - Deaths from alcohol, drugs, and suicide—so-called "deaths of despair"—in 2017 hit the highest rate since CDC researchers began collecting ...

    The disconnect between the economy and stocks.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...s-record-highs

    6/05 The Fed has no choice but to return to ultra-low interest rates – Mises
    6/05 Australia’s economy slows to levels last seen during the GFC – ABC
    6/05 Global semiconductor sales plunge 24% from peak. Here’s why – Wolf Street
    6/05 Cataclysmic flooding takes millions of acres of US farmland out of production – EOAD


    6/05 The ECB Is looking increasingly powerless – Bloomberg
    6/05 Low inflation dogs Fed as it reviews policy framework – Reuters
    6/05 Inflation’s decline puts pressure back on ECB – Reuters
    6/04 The cost of brand-name prescription drugs doubles every 7 to 8 years – MW


    6/05 Fed mulls next trip to zero with discussion of how to roll out QE – Yahoo!
    Indications are; they will do more of the same,,,,punish the lower loop.

    "Last month, under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration, Google terminated its cooperation with Huawei, thereby depriving the Chinese smartphone maker of the license to use Google’s Android software and related services. The move poses an existential threat to Huawei. But, more than that, it marks both a new pinnacle in the Sino-American conflict and the end of US-led globalization."
    " The EU was largely spared a populist upset in the recent European Parliament election"
    The article is about the fallout from the Chinese-American economic war.

    "US President Trump responded that the tariffs on China are working, with Chinese firms leaving the country to avoid paying tariffs, no visible increase in inflation, and the US “taking billions.” (the IMF showed that the billions in tariffs are actually being paid by US companies, not Chinese firms"
    https://aheadoftheherd.com/Newslette...n-for-gold.htm

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Safe-haven bonds are being routed,,, European banks,,, Kunstler

    I'll start with the easy stuff.
    6/04 Millennials kill industries because they’re poor: Deloitte study – Business Insider
    New Grads Won't Be Able to Retire Until 75, Study Finds - NerdWallet
    6/04 US factory orders fall; shipments post largest drop in two years – CNBC
    6/04 US manufacturing sees ‘toughest month in nearly ten years’ – Financial Sense

    Nobody has any money because it is all stuck in the upper loop.
    6/04 UK retail sales plunge at fastest pace in 24 years – Yahoo
    6/04 Powell says the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’ – CNBC
    More like, sustain the contraction.

    Bonds, "The bond market appreciates only too well what the dotted line has meant all along. Nothing has changed since August 2007. There was only ever a much higher likelihood something would go wrong before it could ever go right."
    "You can’t fix a broken monetary system with a head fake."
    "By the very fact they have given up on the BOND ROUT!!! it shows the boom was only ever hype. Never happened.

    There’s was never the majority position. The recovery was always, always the long shot. It was only presented the other way around by a financial media that does the public a tremendous disservice. The bond market never once climbed aboard the boom. And once you see that, you cannot help but appreciate the very real dangers of 2019."
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-04/rip-bond-rout
    TARP was executed to rescue the notional value of RE. It never actually caused an economic recovery. All the QE was an injection into the economy BUT, the FED had NO control as to which sector got inflated.

    Worldwide, the distortions are getting worse. European banks.
    "As Deutsche Bank tumbles to new lows - dragging other lame European banks in its plummeting wake, you have to wonder where it ends? It’s getting embarrassing"
    "Deutsche is the worst – trading at 18% of book value. Isn’t Germany supposed to be Europe’s economic hot spot?"
    "It’s not just Deutsche. The WSJ recently pointed out that the eight largest European banks have triple the assets, but are worth less than JP Morgan! Italian banks are massively exposed to Italian debt – and there isn’t any way that’s a positive. Even decent names like BBVA and Santander are getting caned"
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-04/blain-crazy

    And now, KUNSTLER. He is quite the pessimist. But, that doesn't mean that he is wrong in the long term. Much of his writing is based on a future shortage of cheap oil. I'm going to do a few cites.

    "Who said the global economy was a permanent installation in the human condition?
    Guess what: the global economy is winding down, and pretty rapidly. Trade wars are the most obvious symptom. The tensions underlying that spring from human population overshoot with its punishing externalities, resource depletion, and the perversities of money in accelerated motion, generating friction and heat.
    "The USA-China romance was bound to end in divorce, which Mr. Trump is surreptitiously suing for now under the guise of a negotiated trade rebalancing. The US has got a chronic financial disease known as Triffin’s Dilemma, a set of disorders endemic to any world reserve currency. The disease initially expressed itself in President Nixon’s ditching the US dollar’s gold backing in 1971. By then, the world had noticed the dollar’s declining value trend-line, and threatened to drain Fort Knox to counter the effects of holding those dollars. Since then, all world currencies have been based on nothing but the idea that national economies would forever and always pump out more wealth."

    It turns out that they pump out more debt in the pursuit of that chimerical wealth until the economic viziers and banking poohbahs begin to declare that debt itself is wealth — and now all the major players around the world are choking to death on that debt, especially the USA and China, but also Japan and the dolorous commune known as the EU. Everybody’s broke, one way or another

    "Notice that Mr. Nixon’s escape from the dollar gold standard coincided with America’s first oil production peak. It was actually more than a coincidence, though it is unclear that anyone but James Schlesinger (then head of the Atomic Energy Commission, and later Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Energy, and CIA Director) understood what that signified. Now America is back at a second and even higher production peak thanks to the illusory boom of shale oil. The difference now is that only 10 percent of the companies producing it make a red cent. For the rest, the main result is just more and more debt, contributing to the larger global debt fiasco."

    The zeitgeist knows something that we don’t. The arc of this story follows the breakup of old arrangements, including trade relations, alliances, nation-states, and widespread expectations about what ought to be. Some observers claim the US will be the “last man standing” in this journey to the post global economy. (We surely would want to avoid a situation where nobody is left standing.) But all the participants in the orgy now ending will be left at least cross-eyed and flummoxed in the new cold dawn of a world without the old mojo. If the center is not holding, better look for a place on the margins as far from the emerging economic black hole as possible."
    https://kunstler.com/cluster****-nat...itgeist-knows/

    Europe is being torn apart because of the backlash created by the Eurocrats trying to destroy cultural unity. The Kalergi plan calls for just that. Merkel won the Kalergi prize for her destruction of Germany. The tribes have no plan to go quietly into that dark night and let savages undo everything that they accomplished. They are fighting back.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...holding-europe

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    sinking stocks,,, supporting the unsupportable

    6/04 Multi billion fund blocks redemptions – Zero Hedge
    I'm sure that this won't contribute to the stampede.
    6/04 Druckenmiller dumps his stocks, piles into Treasuries expecting rates to hit zero – ZH
    6/03 Panic-stricken traders now expect Fed to cut rates twice in 2019 – MarketWatch

    6/04 Here’s why bond yields are falling and why they’ll fall more – CNBC
    As safe-haven money piles into bonds, the yield automatically goes down.
    Biden unveils $1.7 trillion climate plan, paid for by reversing Trump corporate tax cuts
    A shill for the nuke power industry.
    6/03 Bonds ‘on fire’ as flight to safety gathers momentum – Reuters

    6/03 The US intelligence community needs complete overhaul – Matt Taibbi
    THAT is the understatement of the century.

    "Jan 15, 2009 - A total of 861,664 families lost their homes to foreclosure last year, according to RealtyTrac, which released its year-end report Thursday. There were more than 3.1 million foreclosure filings issued during 2008, "
    "The U.S. entered a deep recession, with nearly 9 million jobs lost during 2008 and 2009, roughly 6% of the workforce"

    Banks love foreclosures because they get to keep the invested money and, sell the house to somebody else. With all the lost jobs, nobody could buy all these houses. But, it was of utmost importance to maintain RE prices. How could they do that with the concurrent loss of wages / employment?
    The PTB keep trying to maintain high prices when we don't have high wages. They pumped money into the general economy hoping that investors would eventually buy up all the housing. I have a friend who stayed in her house for 7 years after she stopped making house payments. It took a while for the hot money to gradually buy up the foreclosed houses.
    If the PTB did not support RE prices, everybody would be underwater on their house and just, default. 3.1 million defaults just in 2008 was catastrophic for the banks. TARP rescued the banks to maintain high house prices.
    6/04 Tiny homes; how some are battling high home prices – WZTV

    The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008 ...
    https://finance.yahoo.com

    The FED is doing price support for everything in sight. All this is done in the name of maintaining prices that are out of alignment with wages. The money renters are starting to flee the markets and,,, run the the safety of treasury bonds. Also, money is fleeing China and the EU. What happens when liquidity is concentrated in sovereign debt and, flees the private market?
    Armstrong said that public debt is going to crash and, private debt will be fine. THAT, I can't believe.

    Armstrong, "ANSWER: The rise in interest rates comes with the turn in the ECM in January. However, what you have to understand is there will be a divergence between private and public rates. The central banks really cannot raise rates without creating a budget crisis. The more likely outcome is that governments are losing their ability to borrow in the real market. The public rates are more likely to become simply pegs that render them useless in all practical terms. We have already witnessed this in Europe. The central bank created negative interest rates. All they have done is to kill the viable domestic bond markets."
    Armstrong certainly shows a lack of imagination. "governments are losing their ability to borrow in the real market. "
    If they can't borrow, they will simply print debt-free money.

    Armstrong, "Even a Trump victory in 2020 will still result in civil unrest or if he were to lose (which the system does not favor just yet) we will see the same result. It just appears that in 2020 into 2022, no one will accept whoever wins."
    Armstrong is calling for a BIG turn up in interest rates in Jan of 2020. is that when MMT starts?

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Do the speculators get what they want or, NOT

    The New York FED is the most important bank in the world.
    "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced that Simon Potter, executive vice president and head of the Markets Group, and Richard Dzina, executive vice president and head of the Financial Services Group, will be stepping down from their respective roles effective June 1, 2019."
    2 of the most important people at the NY FED are leaving.
    6/03 Panic-stricken traders now expect Fed to cut rates twice in 2019 – MarketWatch
    Where does this fit in the puzzle?

    the Trump administration will soon be losing one of the market's favorite purveyors of economic optimism
    Chief White House Economist Kevin Hassett Resigns
    Where does this fit in the puzzle?

    "Given this identity, which must hold, the trade deficit is equal to the excess of private sector investment over savings, plus the excess of government spending over tax revenue. So, the counterpart of the trade deficit is the sum of the private sector deficit and the government deficit (federal + state and local). The U.S. trade deficit, therefore, is just the mirror image of what is happening in the U.S. domestic economy. If expenditures in the U.S. exceed the incomes produced in the U.S., which they do, the excess expenditures will be met by an excess of imports over exports (read: a trade deficit).

    The table below shows that U.S. data support the important trade identity. The cumulative trade deficit the U.S. has racked up since 1975 is about $47.003 trillion, and the total investment minus savings deficit is about $43.233 trillion."
    "U.S. trade deficits are not caused by so-called unfair trade practices. They are made in the good old U.S.A. President Trump can bully countries he identifies as unfair traders, he can impose all the restrictions on trading partners that his heart desires, but it won’t change the trade balance."
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...p-counterpunch

    There is speculation that Trump is going to throw the trade war into high gear.
    'Cutting off oil supplies to China is equal to a declaration of war' - analyst
    "Chinese oil industry executives said this past week that China’s oil industry must have a contingency plan in case the trade war takes another turn for the worse.

    According to Bloomberg, Wang Yilin, chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), told employees to prepare for a “protracted” trade conflict, while Fu Chengyu, former chairman at Sinopec, said that China should be ready for the extreme and far-fetched case that its oil supply could be blocked"

    "The trade war went parabolic. China refused to budge and Trump upped the ante with more tariffs, to which China responded by threatening to end rare earth exports, a terrifying prospect for US tech companies that rely on those elements. Then last night Trump shocked pretty much everyone by slapping tariffs on Mexico in retaliation for the recent surge of illegal immigration. Meanwhile, global trade flows are collapsing. "
    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/stock...ing-feds-hand/

    So, 3 VIPs in finance have stepped down in the last couple of weeks.
    The money renters are demanding TWO rate cuts in the next few months. Trump is trying to torch China. The EMs are desperate for dollars to service dollar-denominated debt. Chinese banks are crashing. Will the FED / Trump give the markets what they want?
    Will Trump hold it all back to crash foreign markets?

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Nuke vs coal,,, desperation unfolding,,, Trump, the executioner

    Here are some excerpts from an anti-Trump article.
    Trump’s latest folly to place a 5% per month tariff on Mexico if it doesn’t control the border with the U.S. is just another idiotic move in his quest to control global trade.
    Reduce, not control
    Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is Trump’s enemy on the border. In fact, if anything, AMLO has been on Trump’s side. But, like Trump, he’s got just as big a Deep State problem and that precludes anything substantive getting done.
    AMLO doesn't have a deep state problem. He has a cartel problem.
    This latest outburst by Trump ensures that his USMCA, the “Greatest Deal Ever,” won’t get ratified. And it just goes to show that he’s so weak as a President that he can’t win any wins within his own government so now he’s going to punish Mexico while pandering to his mostly brain-dead base.

    Most Americans don't like NAFTA and, they don't want it's successor. Apparently, Trump stabbed USMCA in the back.
    He’s looking at his rising approval numbers and surveying the carnage in global trade and thinking he has the political capital for this. And, sadly, he’s right.
    So, Trump has driven a stake in the heart of globalism. What's not to like?
    Trump is going to be Mr. Legal Immigration. He’s going to let in as many skilled foreign workers as he can to fill the jobs he’s trying to win back from China, India and Europe.
    ALL nations are trying to attract skilled workers.
    Notice how Americans aren’t going to fill those jobs.
    NOPE, they refuse to take a job in a chicken rendering plant.

    If these tariffs aren’t about the border than what are they about? They are about China. They are about stopping the re-branding of Chinese imports as being from Mexico a
    https://tomluongo.me/2019/06/02/what...mr-tariff-man/
    Trump recognises that Americans will always lose if they have to work for global mean wages.

    Just in case you have wondered at the PERSISTENCE of the global warming cadre, it is simple. They are all funded by the nuke power plant people.
    The compelling argument used to convince that the world must turn to nuclear power plants centers on the fact that it is carbon-free energy to stave off global warming. It’s not at all clear that renewables can do the job alone and the dream of electric cars will never materialize without nuclear power on any grand scale. Nuclear is a proven technology, which already provides 11% of all electricity globally. They need the Global Warming propaganda to justify building nuclear power plants which are far more costly to construct – $5 billion to $10 billion a pop. Sometimes, it just helps to follow the money.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...low-the-money/
    $5---$10 billion and MUCH more for decommissioning. Nuke plants are so dangerous that they can never get insurance. There are 235,000 spent fuel rods that must be cooled for decades.
    Nuke power is FAR too expensive so, they have to keep pounding the drum to push global warming. Fission releases a LOT of heat but, don't worry, it doesn't contribute to global warming because it doesn't make carbon dioxide.

    Collapse in bullish narratives, collapse in trade talks, collapse in yields, collapse in technical structures, collapse in rate expectations, collapse in growth projections and yes, collapse in stocks. While the price damage to equities for now seems reflective of a run of the mill correction the larger macro context is screaming danger. Danger that this long business cycle is turning or perhaps has already has turned.

    Overly optimistic growth estimates have to contend with a bond market that’s yelling recession risk from the rooftops. A Fed now being bullied into rate cuts by a market that demands them more urgently by the day. Three rates cuts being priced in now by the end of the year.

    Not long ago the prospect of three rate cuts coming would have been greeted with feverish buying by the TINA crowd, but cycle theory tells you that rate cuts at the end of a cycle are not a sign of strength, they never were, but signs that the economy is heading toward recession:

    Great graph, https://i1.wp.com/northmantrader.com...24%2C757&ssl=1
    https://northmantrader.com/2019/06/01/collapse/
    It's not like this is any surprise. All credit booms eventually go BOOM.

    6/01 Renewables are set to outprice oil & gas by 2020 – Oil Price
    6/01 Renewable energy prices keep falling: when do they bottom out? – Utility Dive

    The higher that oil goes, the more it opens the door to renewables.

    The Economics of Nuclear Power - World Nuclear Association
    http://www.world-nuclear.org/uploade...conomicsNP.pdf
    Nuclear energy averages 0.4 euro cents/kWh, much the same as hydro, coal is over 4.0 cents

    Electric Generating Costs: A Primer - IER - The Institute for Energy ...
    https://www.instituteforenergyresear...osts-a-primer/
    Aug 22, 2012 - A new nuclear power plant, for example, has one of the highest levelized costs, particularly compared to coal and natural gas-fired plants,
    Lies and, damn lies. Bring on the FUSOR.

    I haven't checked the veracity of this info.
    How many coal plants are there in the world today?

    The EU has 468 - building 27 more... Total 495

    Turkey has 56 - building 93 more... Total 149

    South Africa has 79 - building 24 more... Total 103

    India has 589 - building 446 more... Total 1036

    Philippines has 19 - building 60 more... Total 79

    South Korea has 58 - building 26 more... Total 84

    Japan has 90 - building 45 more... Total 135

    China has 2,363 - building 1,171 more... Total 3,534

    That’s 5,615 projected coal powered plants in just 8 countries.

    USA has 15 - building 0 more...Total 15

    And Democrat politicians with their "green new deal" want to shut down those 15 plants in order to "save" the planet.

    6/03 Asia stocks fall on trade worries, falling exports – CNBC
    6/03 Wall Street luminaries warn trade war could drag on for decades – Zero Hedge
    6/03 U.S. stock futures fall as China blames U.S. on trade talks flop – Bloomberg
    6/03 Domino #2: Chinese bank with $105 bn in assets on verge of collapse – ZH
    6/02 China blames US for trade dispute, says it won’t back down – AP

    of course they won't back down. It was all planned that way.MAGA, baby.

    6/02 “Gold is a rock, bitcoin has real value” – James Altucher – Kitco

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Trump as executioner

    There are just TOO many bots on this board. It is a pain to do this in mail.

    In 1934, the exchange stabilization fund was created. It was a fund created for the use of the president that would not be subject to the approval of congress. It specialized in currency manipulation.

    In 1988, President Reagan created the President's working group on markets, other wise know as the plunge protection team. The PPT is the main avenue for the president to pump up the finance industry.
    The secretary of the treasury participates in both funds.
    Every time that the markets fall, they get mysteriously levitated by some unknown source. So, while the Federal Reserve is very reticent to pump up markets,,, and, thereby preserve it's reputation, somebody else is inflating like crazy. Both the ESF and PPT are under the direct control of the president.
    The FED didn't necessarily have to pump money into the markets. It could get much the same effect by creating no-loss guarantees for stock speculators.

    The "Greenspan put" refers to the monetary policy approach that Alan Greenspan, the former Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Board, and other Fed members exercised from late 1987 to 2000.

    In effect, it promoted heavy risk taking. The runup to the dotcom crash was preceded by investors throwing money at unicorns because there weren't enough legitimate opportunities. By creating a no-lose floor under stocks, Greenspan promoted inordinate risk taking.
    In recent years, the FED has been responsible for 93% of the rise in the stock market. Who knows what effect the ESF and PPT have had.

    Trump talks up what a great economy we have. BUT, he also knows money markets. Obummer inflated the snot out of the markets knowing that his term was coming to an end. He wanted to pave the way for HRC. We are at a turning point. The markets are already headed down. What will Trump do?
    His attacks on China give us a hint. His attacks on Europe tell us the same. Now, he has attacked Mexico and, most recently, he has attacked India.
    The only one of the BRICs that he hasn't attacked is Russia. That won't work because they are too strong.

    The markets are REALLY apprehensive now. Will Trump save their bacon? He has already refused to get us in big, expensive wars that the Pentagon is demanding. Just how far will he go?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/inve...n-the-fed.html
    Trump has turned the investment world upside down.
    https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspo...trump-put.html
    So, how far will he go? All credit bubbles eventually come to an end. Will Trump try to do a controlled demolition. It certainly looks that way. Why else would he sanction our neighbor Mexico,,, and then immediately sanction India. The markets just can't absorb and adjust that fast.

    Only six countries benefited from globalization. It has become obvious that it just can't work. Germany has a 1 trillion account surplus. The rest of the EU has a 1 trillion account deficit. Globalization has to come to an end but, nobody wants to pull the plug. Especially China.

    The Ugly End of Globalization
    The capital defect of America’s contrived economy is the capital itself. Namely, it’s fake. The importance of this defect cannot be overstated.
    About this time, something even more historic happened. Roughly one billion Chinese workers, who were willing to work for less than peanuts, joined the global workforce. As a result, the U.S. was able to export its inflation – and jobs – to China and other emerging economies over the next three decades.

    At the same time, the prices of goods and services that couldn’t be exported – like health care and college tuition – inflated with the money supply. In addition, the gap from stagnant U.S. wages, due to the flood of cheap labor abroad, was made up with an endless supply of credit. Financial assets, like stocks, bonds, and real estate, also inflated beyond comprehension.

    VERY clear, concise explanation.
    Massive public and private debts, runaway deficits, trade tariffs, and the end of globalization have set the table for the return of consumer price inflation to the U.S economy.

    Make what you want of Trump’s trade policies. You may like them. You may not. But there’s little he or anyone else can do to stop the ugliness that’s coming.

    https://economicprism.com/the-ugly-e...globalization/
    Type and save,,, type and save.

    Previously, America was a high-wage & high price economy. As we slide down to a global-mean wage, we become a high-price economy with low wages. All the monetary inflation and credit inflation is an attempt to maintain the high prices.
    M.N. Gordon is calling for great domestic price inflation. What he fails to factor in is; as prices go up, most people will be priced out of the market. More and more people will be living on the streets. More and more stores will close. BUT, that is only the start. People will default very heavily.

    What about the entities that do NOT have a printing press?
    6/02 $5.2 trillion of pension debt threatens to overwhelm state budgets – Forbes
    6/01 South Korea May exports fall for sixth month, worse than expected – Reuters
    They benefited from globalization but, that phase is over.
    6/02 Recession ahead? A reliable warning light is blinking ‘yes’ – SF Chronicle
    Of course it is. The current recession started last December.

    So, the trade war has morphed into a wider war.
    https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-...531-story.html
    Trump has never been shy about making enemies. He's really fired up this time.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...monopoly-probe

    Leave a comment:

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