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  • Danny B
    Economic collapse with a side-order of revolution

    "one where impossible moves such as repo rates exploding from 2% to 10% in seconds become a daily occurrence."
    Just picture this as : the economic system being hooked up to a defibrillator on a daily basis.
    There is just so much to cover as we get closer to the convergence of; the black-hole of debt and, the real world supply of liquidity.
    Dean Henderson has a lot to say that is worth reading.

    Likewise, Armstrong has plenty to say.
    "We are witnessing a worldwide revolution indeed. People are rising up against governments in general because it is obvious that corruption has become standard. "
    Armstrong, "As I said before, that is not where it began. There are three phases to this. We are only in Phase II. The Mother of all Financial Crises has yet to come."

    America created the welfare-warfare State. Europeans concentrated on creating the welfare state. America sidelined them as far as a warfare State. Though, that didn't save Serbia when NATO trashed it.
    ALL socialist nations collapse. Pox Americana used the printing press to fund warfare on with it's credit card. BUT, it also used it's credit card to fund the welfare state. 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. The public are unable to do the required consumption to keep the credit bubble growing. GOV makes the credit bubble grow by channelling new money through the defence industry. It has an insatiable appetite for funding. If U.S. sovereign debt does indeed collapse, do we attribute that to direct welfare payments OR, "offset" welfare payments channelled to the defense industry?
    Will corporate & private socialism break the system as it has done previously?

    Rack up debt, Declare bankruptcy, RepeatAnd repeat again - 1,000s Of Canadians doing it
    Hong Kong Protests Attract Massive CrowdsEstimated 800,000 March In Financial District
    Ah yes,,, in the financial district. When the Irish Republican Army did an attack in the London financial district, they finally got major interest.

    The entire world economy is completely dependent on new CB liquidity. BUT, the hew-money-drug is wearing off.
    "We saw some of this this week following an 850 point drop in the $DJIA which immediately prompted renewed trade optimism headlines.
    "Still, last week was a warning. The bid can disappear suddenly and it requires massive amounts of liquidity and jawboning to keep the bid going. "

    12/10 Why is the US repo crisis ongoing? – Investment Watch Because derivative failure is ongoing.
    12/10 Central planners: out of room and running out of time – Michael Pento
    12/09 Japanification scourge threatening to go global – Bloomberg

    This "scourge" is related to a poverty induced crash in population, wages and, spending.
    12/09 Here’s what a ‘Japanification’ of the U.S. would look like – MarketWatch
    In absolute numbers, the United States has a larger immigrant population than any other country, with 47 million immigrants as of 2015. This represents 19.1% of the 244 million international migrants worldwide, and 14.4% of the U.S. population.

    Sure, "they" have engineered an increase in population but, that has mostly grown the welfare rolls, NOT productivity.
    12/09 Fed’s third “year-end” repo oversubscribed again amid liquidity scramble – ZH
    Yes, year-end is going to set off a melt-down.
    12/09 The story behind UK’s GDP? The incredible shrinking private sector – Guardian
    Yep, grow the government until the whole system pops.
    12/10 Bitcoin, gold, silver and armageddon – Forbes
    NO mention of food and diesel fuel.

    12/10 Expect inflation and deflation concurrently – Seeking Alpha
    Inflation in everything you buy,,, deflation in everything you sell.
    12/10 Adversity scores: the latest dumbing down of US education – Mish
    The coming ADVERSITY is going to make all of us super heroes.
    12/09 France should take a lesson from Ronald Reagan: fire the strikers – Mish
    Reagan fired the air traffic controllers who struck in spite of their no-strike contract.
    France offered a state assistance package to everybody. It has just gotten too expensive and, Macron is trying to shrink it. This is NOT going to end well.

    12/09 “If Biden somehow gets the nomination this time, progressives will go berserk” – ZH
    DO NOT WORRY.The progressives are going to be berserk as a full time occupation.
    12/10 The European investment bank has quit fossil fuels. Now what? – Greentech Media
    How very GREEN of them. I'm sure that this will be a big consolation when everything in Europe is frozen solid from the solar minimum.

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  • Danny B
    Bet on currency inflation

    12/08 “When we fall back into a recession and real QE returns, watch out” – ZH
    OK, so, the CBs are going to print like crazy.
    12/08 The shock and awe era for central banks is over – Bloomberg
    OK, so the CBs are going to stop printing.
    12/09 Japan is again forced to stimulate its troubled economy – Seeking Alpha
    The JCB printing press is set on auto-pilot.
    12/09 Central banks are cutting at the fastest rate since the financial crisis – Zero Hedge
    Rate cutting is inflationary in that it tempts more people to do more speculation. Obviously, it raises speculation but, does nothing for consumption when everybody is debt-saturated.

    12/09 Repo blowup was fuelled by big banks, hedge funds, BIS says – Bloomberg
    The 2008 LIBOR crisis was caused by banks not trusting other banks. The current REPO crisis is caused by banks not trusting hedge funds.
    12/09 Be prepared for the greatest depression, things to get uglier – Kitco
    15% of American companies are zombies and, don't have any profits. The FED, ESF and PPT pump money into the markets to keep them alive,,,, keep their employees working. Corporate debt is now up to $10 trillion. How many zombies will survive a lockup in credit markets?
    Armstrong hints at a blowup on January 18. Will the REPO markets fall flat then? Dunno.
    12/03 Nation’s girlfriends unveil new economic plan: ‘let’s move in together’ – Onion
    12/09 End of the $ golden age? More & more countries restore their gold reserves – RT
    The gold in London, is levered-up and loaned out. Every time that a sovereign repatriates their gold OUT of London, there is far less to loan or manipulate. When Germany FINALLY got their gold back, it was an entirely different set of bars.
    Nixon closed the gold window after repatriations reached 100 tons a week.
    12/05 “Floodgates are open” – German banks start charging retail savers – Zero Hedge
    12/08 Dark money will push gold higher – Daily Reckoning

    NOT entirely true. Stupid politicians will push gold higher.

    Interest rates were driven down and, interest-income fell. Investors were driven into risky paper in the search for yield. This helped fund risky business (and their employees). All zombies eventually die. There is 10$ trillion in corporate debt. BUT, there is less and less protection for investors.

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  • Danny B
    Dire warning from the BIS

    "Long-Term Capital Management was a massive hedge fund with $126 billion in assets. It almost collapsed in late 1998. If it had, that would have set off a global financial crisis"
    LTCM was brought down to a large degree by the collapse of Russian bonds. A group of banks got together and, rescued their paper.
    The REPO crisis of September was caused by much the same kind of problem. A lack of liquidity in a big bank. Instead of private banks bailing out J. P. Morgan this time, the FED had to jump in,,, within minutes.

    "LCH claim to have done a quadrillion of compression trades or netting in the last year, this is more than twice the notional of all outstanding interest rate derivatives.

    If initial margins rise significantly, the only assets that will see a bid will be cash, US treasuries, JGBs, Bunds, Yen and Swiss Franc. Everything else will likely face selling pressure. If a major clearinghouse should fail due to two counterparties failing, then many centrally cleared hedges will also fail."
    "he growing significance of these new cash sources "can result in unfamiliar market dynamics", said BIS' Claudio Borio. Dynamics such as the one where impossible moves such as repo rates exploding from 2% to 10% in seconds become a daily occurence."
    "So where does that leave us? Well, as the BIS concludes, since 17 September, "the Federal Reserve has taken various measures to supply more reserves and alleviate repo market pressures. These operations were expanded in scope to term repos (of two to six weeks) "
    Armstrong pointed out that all this REPO money went into overnight loans. NO longer the case.
    "We have covered all these "mitigating events", and the problem is that even though the Fed has now injected $208BN in liquidity via overnight and term repos, and $114BN via permanent T-Bill purchases, or POMO (i.e. "Not QE"), expanding the Fed's balance sheet by $322 billion, the repo market still remains broken..."
    " and the world may find just how broken it is as soon as December 31, when the next repocalypse event is tentatively scheduled to strike. The big question is whether the world's mega hedge funds, the Millenniums, the Citadels, the Point72s afraid they will lose access to the precious repo funding that permits them to lever up as much as 10x, will sharply deleverage ahead of this event, in the process sending risk prices tumbling and precipitating the next market crash."

    "not only was Fed Chair Powell facing an LTCM like situation, but because the repo-funded arb was (ab)used by most multi-strat funds, the Federal Reserve was suddenly facing a constellation of multiple LTCM blow-ups that could have started an avalanche that would have resulted in trillions of assets being forcefully liquidated "

    "But don't take our word: here again is the top financial expert at the BIS, Claudio Borio, warning that that September’s dislocation suggests that such repo "events" are only just starting and the repo markets "may again find themselves in the eye of the storm should financial stress arise at some point", a point which as the Fed recently revealed in its October FOMC Minutes could take place as soon as year-end."
    This is a complex article about chasing liquidity to lever-up trades AND, at the same time, pay out huge dividends. "a quadrillion of compression trades " this gives you an idea of just how much liquidity is necessary to keep the credit bubble alive.

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  • Danny B
    Comparing zombies,,, approaching the final zombie reckoning

    A zombie is a body that continues to move even though it's vital signs are non-existent.
    The mitochondria continue to supply energy for movement even though there is no supply of ATP / energy.
    Much of the world economy is a functioning zombie. The energy for movement is supplied by stimulus in the form of liquidity from the Central Banks. Previously, this energy was supplied from wages derived from the cycle of production & consumption. While the bankers sucked out much of the necessary energy for self-survival, they were accompanied by the blob State.,,, An enormous horde of government workers who drew mightily on the bank of energy but, returned very little in the form of "productivity". They produced lots of laws, regulations and fines but, returned nothing in the form of productivity.

    Then, there are the millions who rely on money for "working" for the government. 1 out of every 11 in the beltway is a lawyer.

    "The average salary for Government of The District of Columbia employees is $81986 per year. "
    "(Federal Level) earned an average of $313890 in Washington, DC in 2019"
    The U.S. claims that it only spends 24% of the gdp.
    Keep in mind that it was originally asserted that advertising and finance should NOT be included in the gdp calculations.
    GOV money printing is included in gdp calculations. It is counted a second time when it is spent. We can NOT have a shrinking gdp so, it behoves the GOV to spend money as fast as it can.
    The gdp numbers have very little to do with productivity. They are a calculation of how much money is in the system.

    6 days ago, Corporate America's debt load is nearing $10 trillion, a record
    The federal reserve (FED),, the exchange stabilization fund (ESF) and, the president's working group on markets (PPT) ALL pump in liquidity to every sector.
    Since 2007, the oil and gas industry has lost $280 billion
    Corporate America's debt load is nearing $10 trillion, a record 47% of the overall economy GDP — and experts around the world are sounding the alarm

    Fracking 2.0 Was a Financial Disaster, Will Fracking 3.0 Be any different?

    Corporate debt was pumped up to $10 trillion by federal government disbursements. All of this was done to pump money into the lower loop via injections to the upper loop. The upper loop just held onto the money because wages were insufficient to recapitalize consumption of the lower loop.
    May, 2018, "U.S. corporate debt has risen from $40 trillion to $70 trillion since the top of the last bubble in 2007. That’s 63% in 10 years.

    The Federal Reserve is about to create a lot more zombies
    Beware the dawn of the corporate dead | Financial Times
    The Federal Reserve's Zombie Economy | Fox Business
    Opinion | When Dead Companies Don't Die - The New York ...
    The Zombie (Company) Apocalypse Is Here | Mises Wire
    OK, you get the idea. thousands of zombie companies are kept alive with FED money.
    This is ALL done to preserve employment.

    What's the manufacturing job killer, automation or trade ...
    Most US manufacturing jobs lost to technology, not trade
    Rise of the machines: Fear robots, not China or Mexico
    The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China. It's Automation.
    Here is a graph that clearly shows the effects of automation.
    You get the idea.

    Does China Need a Social Safety Net? - Carnegie Endowment
    China's welfare system: difficult, inflexible and blatantly unfair
    China's weak social safety net -

    China keeps alive it's zombie companies alive to keep employment going.

    OK, so every State is affected by the loss of jobs. Reportedly, China SOEs have $40 trillion off-books. But wait, America reports to having a missing $26 trillion. That's just what they report.
    You get a check from GOV. You take it to the bank. The bank accepts it because they assume that it will clear.
    At the moment, it is reported that U.S. GOV is insolvent. At the same time, it looks like the banks will melt down because hundreds of $trillions of derivatives are crashing. Both China and America keep the zombie alive to keep jobs going.
    Parkinson's Law,

    Automation isn't going to die off any time soon.

    It looks like China will crash first. It is claimed that Chinese have so much in savings that they don't need a welfare system. There are already 500 banks scheduled for collapse. It is doubtful that the Chinese banking system can survive a run on the banks.
    This may all get down to a test to see which public support system can best handle a zombie apocalypse.

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  • Danny B
    Politican chaos is the new growth industry

    The Democrats will re-elect Trump.
    Armstrong, "I will update the Cycle of War in 2020. As I have stated many times, the computer has correlated both the international war among nations as well as the civil unrest which leads to revolutions. Normally, these two separate models move at different times. When they align, we get the most dramatic changes. This is what is taking place right now on a global scale."
    Look at France; a highly mechanized society can be completely paralysed by a general strike. Expect more of them.
    Armstrong, "
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    Posted Dec 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

    QUESTION: Can you elaborate on the Mother of all Financial Crises?
    ANSWER: Sorry, no. I have put this together in a special report. I really do not wish to discuss this publicly. I will only be blamed for starting a panic as they have done every time before. So best to keep confidential. Clients only."
    Once again, he can't say when the banks will close.
    "ANSWER: The drug trade is cash. It has had a major impact upon keeping the political governments south of the United States in chaos. In all honestly, if drugs were legalized, it would save so many lives and help reduce crime."
    "Socrates picks up the cash flows. Much of the money is laundered into real estate around the world, but particularly into Miami."
    Thank a banker

    John Hussman puts out a ton of technical analysis. He says that valuation extremes have exceeded the valuations prior to the 1929 crash. Very interesting article.

    Hedge Funds Are Quietly Piling Into Oil
    12/05 OPEC and allies agree to deepen oil output cuts – Reuters
    The OPECers are trying to force worldwide production cuts. Somebody always has to cheat to meet domestic demands for GOV assistance.
    Record number of 168 million people will need UN assistance in 2020
    12/06 The masses are being conditioned to ignore the economic bubble – Birch Gold
    They will have a rude awakening when the banks close.

    12/05 The market will need the Fed again in 2020 – Axios
    12/05 The repo market is broken and Fed injections are not a lasting solution – MW

    REPO market, my arse. Nobody will admit that the banks need cash because derivatives are crashing en masse. Every little hiccup in RE crashes down a few more $trillion in MBS securities.

    12/06 France grinds to a halt in massive strike – Mish
    The Kalergi Plan is a scheme to completely destroy cultural continuity in Europe. An obvious effort to forestall things like nationwide strikes. Many other States will see that nationwide strikes are FAR more effective than protests. Why go to the picket lines and risk getting beat up? Just stay at home and, avoid the cops.

    After the 1929 crash, investigators blamed the crash on "dark pools" of capital flowing here & there and crashing everything down as they pulled out en masse from a particular area.
    these dark pools are now renamed, "hedge Funds" They are doing a repeat.
    Meanwhile, the marxists are trying to come up with more funding for their huge money-losing endevor,,, world socialism. A climate scare and a carbon tax to fix it are in the works.
    The banks like the idea because they will administer the carbon tax.
    In times long ago, we gave a donation to the temple priests to intercede on our behalf with the gods of nature. Primarily, the sun god.

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  • Danny B
    Snips from Zero hedge.

    I mistakenly posted"economics" in the ruling class thread.
    Here is the link.

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  • Danny B
    Bogus numbers on a bogus economy

    The GDP is a bogus measurement of how much money is in the economy. Government spending is counted twice. The FED, ESF and, PPT have been pumping in money continuously. The stock market has been going up. Corporate America used all that free money to do buybacks.
    47% Of GDP – This Is Definitely The Scariest Corporate Debt Bubble In U.S. History
    "We are facing a corporate debt bomb that is far, far greater than what we faced in 2008
    corporations all over the country are now really struggling to deal with their colossal debt burdens, and defaults on the riskiest class of corporate debt are on pace to hit their highest level since 2008. Everyone can see that a major corporate debt disaster is looming, but nobody seems to know how to stop it.
    In spite of a recent injection of $160 billion, the stock market goes lower every week.

    I keep harping on the base problem. Here it is. You should read this.
    12/04 How the era of easy money may come to haunt debt-ridden companies – Fortune
    Once again, socialism is the firewall between people who are non-productive and,,, Darwinian pressures. Automation is hitting very hard on people with less intelligence and, less education. Government has accumulated millions of people who just can't make it in the competitive private sector.

    12/04 Another December sell-off is feared if tariffs take effect Dec. 15 – CNBC
    12/04 How the market sell-off could get worse: ‘better put on your helmet’ – CNBC

    12/03 Nomura warns of imminent “gamma-flip” risk in stocks – Zero Hedge
    Trump has no intention of backing off. He never did. He plans to torch China. Europe will be collateral damage.
    12/03 France and EU say primed to retaliate over U.S. tariff threat – Reuters
    12/03 Stocks plunge after Trump says he could wait on China deal – CNBC
    12/04 Japan preparing $120 billion stimulus package as recession risks grow – NY Times
    Yep, preserve the banks and kill the people.

    12/03 UK retail sales collapse in November by most on record – Zero Hedge
    12/03 First against the wall in Corbyn’s revolution? Your savings – BullionVault
    I'm sure that there is NO connection. State plunder always reduces the economy.
    12/03 Pondering today’s gigantic miss on construction spending – Mish

    12/04 There are more dollars in Venezuela now than there are bolivars – GATA
    The reported death of the dollar is WAY premature.

    12/02 Federal Reserve to let inflation run “hot” ahead of next recession – Zero Hedge
    Yep,,,, pump in money,,,, cause price inflation,,,, the consumer cuts back,,,,The more they pump in, the more that the actual economy shrinks.
    12/03 The real lessons from Japan’s monetary experiment – Epoch Times
    Save the banks and starve the people just doesn't work.
    12/03 About to relive the 2007 real estate crash again? – Technical Traders
    Yep, the mortgage backed securities will blow once again.

    12/04 Obama “does not care” if you like the nominee, just vote Democrat – Zero Hedge
    Yep, just hold your nose and, close your eyes.

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  • Danny B
    Chinese communists will set off the great reset

    Armstrong's models are confidence models. The Chinese hang on every word he says. They brought him to China for advice in the 2008 collapse. The Chinese have proved that they have leaned NOTHING !
    The Chinese mafia (Triads) have attacked and burned the printing press of The Chaos Times Newspaper.. The Triads are down in Oz chasing down fleeing money.
    China is using bounty hunters to claw back money inside Australia | Four Corners
    Interference: China’s covert political influence campaign in Australia | Four Corners

    How the Chinese Communist Party infiltrated Australia's universities | Four Corners

    How China is creating the world’s largest prison | Four Corners

    Australian businesses targeted by China in major hacking campaign | ABC News

    Australia 'should say no' to China's bullying

    Chinese Community Party is 'inconsistent' with Australian values: Dutton
    There you have it. The Chi coms have tried different systems but, they are trying to regain a world position that they lost Centuries ago.
    US President Trump has suggested that the trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 election in November
    China is killing confidence and, Trump is helping him.
    Trump will continue to yank their chain. He's running down the clock to default.

    The Revolution marked Mao's return to a position of power after a period of less radical leadership to recover from the failures of the Great Leap Forward, whose policies led to famine and approximately 30 million deaths only five years earlier. The Cultural Revolution damaged China's economy while tens of millions of people were persecuted, with an estimated death toll ranging from hundreds of thousands to 20 million, while massive local cannibalism also occurred. Mao launched the movement in May 1966, soon calling on young people to "bombard the headquarters" and proclaiming that "to rebel is justified". Mao charged that bourgeois elements had infiltrated the government and society and that they aimed to restore capitalism.

    The Great Leap Forward was a total bust.
    " Mao's personality cult. To eliminate his rivals within the Communist Party of China (CPC) and in schools, factories, and government institutions, Mao insisted that revisionists be removed through violent class struggle. China's youth responded by forming Red Guard groups around the country, "
    " Under the guise of fighting corruption, President Xi Jinping is methodically dismantling virtually every one of the reforms that made China’s spectacular growth possible over the last four decades. In the place of a flawed but highly successful system, he is erecting a colossal cult of personality focused on him alone, concentrating more power in his hands than has any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong."

    China's Great Leap backwards

    So, Mao got the young people all riled up. He got them to kill off all the dirty capitalists and bourgeoisie. 20 million died. That's some record of success for socialism. Just the same, socialism is rearing it's disastrous face once again. It isn't a surprise because crony capitalism has stolen most people's future.
    The Chinese are enthusiastic gamblers. Trump is attacking the shadow banking system. $40 trillion is off books.

    Ah yes, Mao dreamed of a return to the land,,, a simpler life. He wasn't the only Asian leader who got hat idea.
    A reader reminded me that the leader of the Khmer Rouge, Pol Pot, embraced the same ideals we are listening to in the rising trend of socialism and climate change. Pot came to admire the tribes in Cambodia’s rural northeast. He saw these people were self-sufficient and lived on the goods they produced through subsistence farming. He embraced Marxism and saw modern society as evil, as we are hearing once again in the climate change movement.

    The Cambodian tribes, from Pot’s perspective, were like communes that worked together and shared everything from their collective labor. He touted that they were the example of how life should be — untainted by the evils of money, wealth and religion

    In trying to force society back to a rural commune, there was mass starvation that became known as the Killing Fields.
    In Europe, you are not even allowed to criticize climate change. Already, it has become a religion and how dare you speak out against it for you are an evil person.
    Greta and their donors are a long list of socialists. Greta showed up just days before the election in Alberta, Canada, to tell the people they should surrender their jobs because of climate change. What is even more fascinating is that this is not being covered at all in Europe. They are not allowed to report that Greta is being groomed by Greenpeace
    Greenpeace has a long history of violence and now they found Greta to get attention like never before. They are strategically well aware that people will listen to Greta before they would ever listen to an adult. Greenpeace is out to accomplish a similar type of goal that was attempted in Cambodia. Back to a rural lifestyle, end fossil fuels, reduce the population and end technological evolution.

    Armstrong again, "The Democrats are simply moving to extreme measures for socialism. They are turning to violence BECAUSE they have been losing ground. Our model shows that 2020 will be the most violent political election since the 1960s. It really does not matter who wins. Both sides will take to the streets and refuse to accept the victor. This nonsense that Trump is #NotMyPresident has simply invoked the exact opposite position where the Republicans will not accept a Democrat as president. This is what I mean when I say that civilization is collapsing and this leads to separatism."

    "As a result, I think we will spend the latter part of the 2020s going through a kind of worldwide bankruptcy. We won’t call it that, and it will take a lot of argument because we won’t have a court to take charge. But we will collectively realize the situation can’t go on and find a way to end it. I’ve taken to calling this “the Great Reset.”

    Once the Great Reset is over, we’ll find a much better world waiting for us. Getting there will be the hard part." Death for a billion people.
    Pretty good article.

    ALL democracies eventually collapse. The bankers and the State are the mega-parasites that only have a slight acquaintance with fiscal discipline. It is the bankers and the State that are causing all the monetary inflation, NOT the worker / actual producer.
    The State has many millions of beggars, bankers and bureaucrats that depend on the status quo. The State can't afford them anymore.
    96 million are not in the labor force. 44 million receive direct assistance. How is the world going to have a "great reset" without tipping over the apple cart?

    BTW, Chinese communist doctrine ensures that they blow up first.

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  • Danny B
    Fascism and socialism rising,,,, both are going to fail

    The NY Times is glorifying Karl Marx and, our overlords are pushing Marxism at every turn. "They" crashed free market capitalism to bring us fascism. The proposed backlash is Socialism They have pushed socialism everywhere for centuries all around the world. It has failed all the time because "they" ignore human nature. It is also true that human nature has allowed fascism to take hold. America was founded as a republic to keep popular control and socialism at a distance.

    Over the decades, voters have pushed the federal government to guarantee their economic prosperity., NOT just their security. In response, the State created the welfare state. We had creeping socialism at the same time that we had creeping fascism. ALL of it was financed by the Federal Reserve.
    Armstrong, et al have claimed that State debt is going to completely collapse. Who will lay claim to whatever money is left over after the default?
    The welfare state is completely focused on the carbon taxes proposed by the upcoming Madrid climate forum. Paris and Kyoto didn't create the necessary funding. The blob state hopes that Madrid will finally get a worldwide carbon tax.

    Meanwhile, the oligarchs plan to create some sort of feudal State that they rule. That doesn't have much chance of success while the birth rate is falling.
    11/30 Fertility rate in U.S. hit a record low in 2018 – NY Times

    States everywhere are looking for sources of funding. Germany has a $1 trillion account surplus. The rest of the EU States have a $1 trillion deficit. The Germans have no intention of letting Italy, et all get their hands on the money.
    "Why is Legarde pitching Euro Green Bonds when they lose money?
    If she can use the climate change nonsense to shame Germany into agreeing to issue Eurobonds, it would be a step to eliminate the refusal to issue a single European debt. If Legarde can sell that issue, then it will restructure Europe’s debt position.?
    Yep, just like the agreement at Versailles after the war. Germany will be raped but, they will skip the war.

    Meanwhile, China is attempting to forestall rebellion by locking down the surveillance State even tighter.
    NOTHING will save China. Every State that tries to guarantee economic prosperity for it's citizens will always fail. America and Europe included.

    This next article starts out slow but, eventually gets down to the important stuff.
    "Dark Side of the Moon and The Wall capture the injustice, depravity, and degradation of our society into a toxic mix of Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World, with an all- encompassing surveillance state"
    The national debt was $458 billion in 1973, after 184 years as an independent country. We create that much debt in about 5 months today. From $458 billion to $23.1 trillion in 46 years. "
    It’s not money that makes the world go around, it’s debt"
    PROFIT makes the world go round. All the money is stuck in limbo now.

    "Money and who controls it is the major storyline of our time. It truly is the root of all evil today, yesterday and tomorrow. Human nature never changes, so greed and material desires have always and will always drive the actions of some people"
    NO, it is the love of money.

    "The truth is true free market capitalism is the best method for wealth creation with the majority of a population willing to work. But the fact is we don’t have anything resembling free market capitalism. Instead we have a corporate fascist oligarchy, where a relatively small number of mega-corporations control all the major markets, exerting their near monopolistic control by bribing politicians and regulators to maintain their control, power and riches."

    "The military industrial complex, sick care complex, Silicon Valley tech complex, propaganda corporate media complex, and Wall Street cabal wield immense power and control over this country, funneling money from the taxpayers to the .1% at the top of the pyramid. These corporations destroy smaller competitors through regulatory capture and buying off political candidates. This unholy alliance between corporations and government is the definition of corporate fascism."

    "The repeal of Glass-Steagall set in motion a disastrous sequence of events which is still playing out today. Allowing Wall Street banks to combine traditional lending with the high-risk betting of investment banking, while also allowing six Too Big To Trust mega-banks to capture the majority of deposits, mortgage lending, credit card business, and auto loans, has created a heads they win tails we lose economic system."
    It is a good, comprehensive article.

    Massive debt is the ‘new normal’ for the global economy – until the next crisis – SCMP
    12/02 Liquidity & volume diminish – what next? – Technical Traders

    Putting the screws to China.
    12/02 India in “very deep crisis,” witnessing “death of demand” – Zero Hedge
    12/01 The way out for a world economy hooked on debt? Yet more debt – Yahoo!
    12/01 The Fed’s answer to the ghastly monster of its creation – Economic Prism

    The FED has long claimed that it is independent. The FED has no army. At one time, the FED could decline to create more "money" because it was restrained by the gold standard. Now, it has no ability or grounds to hold back.

    12/01 Dalio & Tudor Jones: “we will kill each other” if broken system isn’t fixed – ZH
    12/01 War and peace: how violence is disrupting the global economy – Visual Capitalist

    The Chinese have demonstrated that they have NO imagination. They promised autonomy to Hong Kong. They reneged on the promises. Hong Kong is a very important banking center. China desperately needs liquidity, especially dollars. China has sent in the triads to start thrashing the people of Hong Kong. Capital is fleeing and, investors don't trust the government. Keep in mind that; every time that there is a banking scandal, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Ban of China (HSBC) is at the center of the scandal. HSBC is now moving a lot of their stuff to the blockchain. Is this done to keep communist hands off it?

    11/30 Latin American currencies hit record lows as drop turns to rout – YouTube
    Death awaits them.
    11/30 Italy’s new Nazi party under investigation – Daily Beast
    Years ago Varoufacus warned that; putting the torch to southern European States would bring the rise of the far right. Of course, they ignored him.

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  • Danny B
    Socialism V2 doesn't work

    The Chinese communist leaders have tried several stratagems over the years to make communism work. Human nature and, human failings always got in the way. China desperately wanted to harness the productive capabilities of their enormous population. 286 million Chinese peasants were moved to the cities. This created a huge pool of productive labor. But, wages were so low that there wasn't a commensurate increase in consumption. China must rely on foreign consumption to keep it's productive enterprises in operation.
    China and India created a global-mean-wage. They undercut prices in almost all of the manufacturing countries.
    The delayed effect was; they took the wages of their customers. The Chinese were losing market share but, still needed to keep their people working. They printed money to put the masses to work building domestic infrastructure. They built enormous amounts of infrastructure and buildings for which there was no demand.

    True organic growth would see production & consumption rise in a mutual stairstep fashion. Wages must grow also if P&C is to increase. Wages did not grow and, China was locked in to depending on foreign consumption.
    The Chinese productivity miracle was rapidly losing steam. The Chinese compensated for the lack of foreign demand / capital inflows by creating domestic capital. At one time, China was creating more liquidity that all the major, Western Central Banks put together. Much of this capital was channelled through State owned enterprises. SOE
    ALL of China was on a roll, creating liquidity from every government office AND every bank.
    There is $6 trillion of local debt that is simmering away out of sight. There is $32 trillion NOT on the balance sheet.
    China has an enormous amount of dollar denominated debt. BUT, China is unable to access dollars to service that same debt. Trump's trade war is making things much worse. The Chinese are earning fewer and fewer dollars.
    Here is a vid that lays it out very clearly.

    The Chinese were undoubtedly aware that Sino-Soviet socialism was a complete bust.
    They tried to "invent" a hybrid communist-- capitalist system with rigid control. In the name of keeping everybody employed, they departed from an actual market based system. They took a few hundred million self-sufficient people and, made them dependent on the State.
    The Chinese hybrid system attempted to remove the negative aspects of socialism. The main one being underproductivity. The Chinese have slipped into a system of overproductivity.

    "Up to ten million young urban Chinese will be compelled to move to rural backwaters in the next three years as the country attempts to address the chaotic rush to its cities amid an economic slowdown.

    The campaign by the Communist Party’s youth league to reverse migration comes after President Xi declared rural regeneration to be a national goal. Decades of industrialisation has encouraged peasants to leave their farms for jobs in the factories."

    How is that materially different from America where 51% of the people depend on a check from the State?

    Canada gets honorable mention
    The bank runs have started in India,
    China faces the inevitable because their hybrid system just doesn't work.

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  • Danny B
    Mises et al on socialism and the collapse of Russia

    "The Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises argued in his 1921 book Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis that the Soviet system was unsustainable and would eventually collapse."
    Mises' analysis was based on the economic calculation problem, a critique of central planning first outlined in 1920 journal articles. His argument was that the Soviet Union would find itself increasingly unable to set correct prices for the goods and services it produced:
    There were people and organizations who predicted that the USSR would dissolve before the eventual dissolution of the USSR in 1991.[1]

    Authors often credited with having predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union include Andrei Amalrik in Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? (1970), French academic Emmanuel Todd in La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An essay on the decomposition of the Soviet sphere) (1976), economist Ravi Batra in his 1978 book The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism and French historian Hélène Carrère d'Encausse.[2] Additionally, Walter Laqueur notes that "Various articles that appeared in professional journals such as Problems of Communism and Survey dealt with the decay and the possible downfall of the Soviet regime."[3] Some Americans, particularly conservatives,[4][5] view Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative as not only predicting but causing the dissolution of the Soviet state.

    Mises, "for two decades the famed "socialist calculation debate." And they had all decided, left, right, and center, that there was not a thing economically wrong with socialism: that socialism's only problems, such as they might be, were political. Economically, socialism could work just as well as capitalism."
    "Before Ludwig von Mises raised the calculation problem in his celebrated article in 1920,1 everyone, socialists and non-socialists alike, had long realized that socialism suffered from an incentive problem. If, for example, everyone under socialism were to receive an equal income, or, in another variant, everyone was supposed to produce "according to his ability" but receive "according to his needs," then, to sum it up in the famous question: Who, under socialism, will take out the garbage? That is, what will be the incentive to do the grubby jobs, and, furthermore, to do them well? Or, to put it another way, what would be the incentive to work hard and be productive at any job?"

    "The traditional socialist answer held that the socialist society would transform human nature, would purge it of selfishness, and remold it to create a New Socialist Man. That new man would be devoid of any selfish, or indeed any self-determined, goals; his only wish would be to work as hard and as eagerly as possible to achieve the goals and obey the orders of the socialist State. "
    "At any rate, the socialists soon found that voluntary methods could hardly yield them the New Socialist Man. But even the most determined and bloodthirsty methods could not avail to create this robotic New Socialist Man"

    This inability to change human nature forced the socialists to build walls to keep their people in.
    The socialists didn't want to hear or allow any dissenting opinions.

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  • Danny B
    Speedbumps everywhere you look

    The economy is far different from what the economy was 30 years ago. The PTB are trying to use the rule book from 30 years ago.

    "What central banks have been doing is they’ve utterly destroyed savings and pensions, i.e. the only thing “ordinary” people had to stave off their own personal collapse and that of their communities. ZIRP and NIRP move all those savings and pensions towards the bankers. And yes, pension funds may have moved into equities from bonds, and they may look good momentarily, but the current parade of new highs in stock markets only exists because of central banks’ QE and ZIRP.

    There are tons of zombie enterprises in the world, many of whom have been kept alive by central bank policies, but wait till it becomes evident that the pension funds and systems themselves have turned into zombies."
    "In the ideal picture, free markets are -or would be- self-correcting, and have an inbuilt self-regulating mechanism. If and when prices go up too much, the system will make sure they go lower, and vice versa."
    NOT in an election year.

    Zero Hedge
    Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"
    US Enraged After 6 More EU Nations Join INSTEX To Bypass Iran Sanctions

    Europe is finally trying to extricate itself from FED GOV & FED control.
    Which Countries Offer The Longest Retirements
    "We doubt it will come as a surprise that some of Europe's most fiscally challenged countries are also those that offer the longest retirement across the entire OECD universe."
    Tulsi Gabbard: Wake Up And Smell Our $6.4 Trillion Wars
    "The bipartisan War Party has done its best to wreck America and plenty of other nations too. Gabbard is courageously challenging the Democrats in this coalition, who have become complicit in Washington’s criminal wars..."
    "...bigger government, bigger deficits, and greater government control and encroachments upon individual freedom and liberty."
    Well, what did you expect? It's an election year.
    Everybody needs a side job.
    UPS employees allegedly ran massive drug shipment operation

    "something is seriously starting to break in China's financial system.

    Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China's smaller banks, where a second bank run took place in just two weeks - an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier this year not a single bank was allowed to fail publicly and has now had no less than five bank high profile nationalizations/bailouts/runs so far this year - the Chinese bond market is bracing itself for an unprecedented shock: a major, Fortune 500 Chinese commodity trader is poised to become the biggest and highest profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in over two decades.

    In what Bloomberg dubbed the latest sign that Beijing is more willing to allow failures in the politically sensitive SOE sector - either that, or China is simply no longer able to control the spillovers from its cracking $40 trillion financial system "

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  • Danny B
    Regulatory capture,,, erasure of all hazard,,,resulting collapse

    The crooked bankers caused the S&L crash. 1,000 of them went to jail afterwards. This was an intolerable situation for the bankers. Regulatory capture was needed and, obtained to remove legal hazard. Everything became legal.
    Moral hazard didn't exist for the banking elites. That left financial hazard. Financial hazard was removed by socializing the losses and, privatizing the gains.
    The one percent used regulatory capture to get everything that they wanted. But, in the process of "socializing the losses", they threw the losses onto the backs of the public.
    Every step of the way, the banking elites drew us closer and closer to fascism. With fascism, the problem comes in that; the deplorables might vote out the handpicked representatives of the elites.
    Control of information formerly ensured that this wouldn't be a problem. Jay Rockefeller said that the internet shouldn't have been invented.
    The other possible problem that might arise,,, revolution.
    The solution to hold back revolution; State welfare must be spread far & wide. 44 million Americans receive direct State assistance. 22 million work directly for the government, MANY in make-work jobs. Then, there is the defense industry. State welfare for the rich warmongers.
    Defense Department has lost $875 million to shell company scams

    51% of Americans rely on a check from the State.
    The politicians previously promised to give us back some of our money that they extorted by taxation. In the current system, the State prints new money to finance the welfare system,,, along with selling government bonds. that they never intend to repay.
    "Socializing the losses" has now brought the government to the brink of bankruptcy. Armstrong, et al now claim that the next meltdown will be a crash of the government bond market.

    Previously, the public dreamed that they were in control because they voted. We long followed the chimera that; in a democracy, the people who rule us, rule by our consent only.
    You can see why Trump is so dangerous to the system. He actually proved that voting can sometimes reflect the true wants and values of the electorate.

    WASHINGTON - The chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee is facing accusations of anti-Semitism for a fundraising letter that claims Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer and George Soros "bought" control of Congress for Democrats.
    There are 78 members of congress who hold Israeli passports. Evidently, Bloomberg didn't feel comfortable with Clinton falling behind. That situation threatened to weaken control of the chosenites in congress. Instead of buying elections, he is now directly running for president.

    All my Israeli acquaintances tell me that israel is a communist / socialist country. True to form, israel only survives with massive amounts of financial aid from outside. A continued flow of American aid demands a continued control of the American legislature.
    As fascism brings Americans to poverty, many Americans are looking towards socialism as a panacea.
    Regulatory capture and fascism make socialism look more attractive.
    Israel destroyed their bond market in the early '80s. They had to knock three zeros off the Shekel. They have been continuously bailed out and supported since then.
    What happens when the American bond market dissolves? What happens to israel?Several years ago, the Euro was temporarily strong than the dollar. Since the euro was stronger, israel demanded to receive aid in the form of Euros. We immediately complied.
    What will U.S. GOV do when the sovereign bond market dissolves? What will Israel and the chattel slaves in congress do?

    The Chinese are using "social credit" to try to forestall a revolution. The West is also going to depend on high tech to keep the public afriad and, under control.
    The Chinese communists have long tried to get rid of all competition. They work to make sure that god doesn't give them any competition. America is also working on that problem. God must GO ! Watch what duel Israel citizen Rep Nadler says about swearing in

    Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden Join INSTEX Mechanism for Trade With Iran
    They want their oil and they aren't going to let sanctions dry up the supply. The petro-dollar is losing steam.
    VZ Offers to Pay Companies in Yuan as Workaround to US Sanctions - Report

    Jordan army simulates battle with Israel in military exercise
    Bolivian Coca Growers Leader Says Ready to Run for President as Morales' Party's Candidate
    He and Bloomberg should get along fine.
    Iran Says Over 700 Banks Were Torched In Vast Protest 'Conspiracy'
    MAGA baby.

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  • Danny B
    Inequality,,, revolution,,,Fascism by another name,,,food shortages

    "Unlike simple models of political rent-seeking, in which businesses use government to advance their own interests in exchange for electoral support, under crony capitalism politicians and regulators use businesses to advance the interests of politicians and interest groups in a symbiotic relationship: government creates rents and then distributes them to itself and favored interests."
    Revolving door between Pentagon and defense contractors
    Pentagon Revolving Door Database - Project on Government
    The revolving door: Whitehall and the arms trade
    The revolving door between government and the alcohol, food and gambling industries in Australia

    OK, so much for legislative capture. Legislative capture is followed by crony-capitalism. All of this makes perfect economic sense if their are no moral considerations.
    Douglas MacArthur, “History fails to record a single precedent in which nations subject to moral decay have not passed into political and economic decline. There has been either a spiritual awakening to overcome the moral lapse, or a progressive deterioration leading to ultimate national disaster.”

    So, here we are with an all-powerful State that is locking down dissent.
    Patriot Act on Steroids - Surveillance StateBeyond Section 215
    JFK "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable"

    "OXFORD, England (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Growing global wealth inequality is becoming a fundamental risk to democracy and to economies around the world as more people feel government rules “rigged” in favor of the rich leave them with few options, investors and governance experts said Friday.
    In the United States, for example, “trickle down” economic policies that support tax cuts for the rich with the aim of boosting economic growth and jobs have led to a $2 trillion annual redistribution of wealth from the bottom 99 percent of earners to the top 1 percent
    “That’s not a capitalist market economy anymore,” he warned. “That’s a feudalist system and it scares … me.”
    Globally, half of the world’s wealth is now held by just 1 percent of the world’s population,"

    "Yet perhaps the most important and influential philosopher of inequality was the eighteenth-century Genevan, Jean-Jacques Rousseau. ... Rousseau describes several threats to the public good posed by economic inequality"

    "It has been several weeks since the biggest popular uprising in Chile’s history began. The trigger was something seemingly small: a rise in the subway fare in Santiago, the capital. It went up 3.75%—about 30 Chilean pesos ($0.05)
    Chile ranks high in terms of per capita income, but shares the following trait with Peru, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries: Extreme income inequality.
    The breadth and depth of the discontent is obvious from the protests. They were spontaneous, had wide-ranging demands
    Murillo, “what’s interesting about the Chilean case is that […] it’s everyone against the elites.”
    Murillo likens the protests in Chile to what is happening in the US with the 99%, which is to say everyone but the wealthiest 1% of the population"

    China created more liquidity than the ECB BOj and BOE together. So how will this work out?
    Good vid on banking.
    New Money: The Greatest Wealth Creation Event in History (2019) - Full Documentary
    Right,,, money is wealth.
    Keiser Report: Velocity of Money at All Time Low (E1446)
    Yep, the money is stuck.

    Asia needs to invest $800 Billion in the next ten years to solve food crisis - report

    11/28 Hong Kong the biggest geopolitical threat to markets, economist warns – CNBC
    Trying to kick China off a cliff.
    11/28 NJ to become wasteland: 44% of residents plan to flee state – Zero Hedge
    11/28 Fed warns of economic ruin from burgeoning U.S. debt – Housing Wire
    11/28 Japan ruling party piles pressure on government for big deficits – NY Times
    11/28 Meanwhile for bonds, it’s going from BBBad to worse – Zero Hedge

    NOO, if the bbb get downgraded, most funds are required to sell them.

    11/28 Powell says the Fed is ‘strongly committed’ to 2% inflation goal – MSN
    "11/28 Huge bets in NY that gold could triple to $4,000 by June 2021 – GATA"
    This is a bet that a dollar will buy 1/4000th of an ounce of gold in the future.
    11/28 Currency debasement and social collapse – Mises Institute
    11/27 Max Keiser: China’s secret is gold-backed crypto to destroy USD – Kitco

    The ONLY way that this would work is if; the crypto coin were fully convertible to physical gold. People would start out by converting.
    IF China had enough gold to get past the original rush for conversion, things would settle down and, gold would come back. On paper, the idea is workable. It won't work though because of the looming ;rebellion,,, pole flip,,, food crisis, etc

    All trade around the globe has been falling for months (4 to 11 months) so, we might possibly be headed for a mild recession.
    The new Ned Ludd,,,, 11/26 Mayor De Blasio threatens to destroy Fedex robots running around NY – ZH

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  • Danny B
    Automation is still the cardinal sin

    Socialism is the firewall between Darwinian pressures and,,, the non producers. As automation spreads far & wide, the ranks of non-prodcers swell ever-greater.
    96 million Americans of working age are not in the labor force. This is an enormous mystery to the poobahs.
    As more and more job niches are automated, more and more of the money tends to flow to the rich.
    It's difficult to tell if the rich are receiving money from squeezing the poor OR, are receiving money that is freshly created to rescue all the money renters.
    The State and the PTB are capitalizing the upper loop. There is a rapidly growing apprehension that the pitchforks are going to come out before much longer.
    51% of Americans receive a check from the State. 23 million work directly for GOV. 44 million Americans receive direct assistance. As automation eats up the labor market, more and more people find themselves depending on the State.

    At one time, charity was the province of the private world and,,, the church. BUT, politicians need to "buy" votes any way that they can.
    This argues for a monarchy. The non-producers die out and wither away of they can't support themselves.
    The State finds itself with an enormous financial burden of people who still want to eat but, have no job skills that the still in demand.
    Reportedly, the next crash will be a crash of State debt.
    MMT and UBI have been proposed as a panacea to support those who have no job niche.
    The money renters are rabidly against the creation of debt-free money..
    It can be assumed that the people sidelined by automation and outsourcing are rabidly against starvation.

    The American legislature seems to be in permanent gridlock. A crash in the sovereign bond market will have everyone pointing fingers at everyone else. The blame-game will eclipse / prevent action by the State. The banking elite will lock up the system to retain control.

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