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  • View from Jim Willie,,,blindness from Armstrong

    I read 40--50 hours a week on this economic stuff. Because of 13 years of reading, I can easily skip most of the articles that I see. It takes that much reading to get an acceptable view of world finance. You can't see anything if you don't look at the whole world. We never actually left behind the last recession. We papered-over it with $200 trillion in new debt. I have to read enough to find an accurate view somewhere between "Goldilocks" and The doomers. Jim Willie leans towards the doom side of things. He also has a pretty good track record. Here is the latest,,, a couple of excerpts from a couple of vids.


    June 23rd: topics covered include the dumping of USTreasury Bonds for buying gold bullion by Russia and for buying many global items by China, the collapse of German giant Deutsche Bank integrally tied to the Italian banking system bust, their tight connection to the LTCM 1998 failure which lost the Italian central bank gold (Rickards crime scene & coverup by Draghi), two trigger events to set off the global financial crisis which will release the controlled Gold market (like DBank/ Italy failure plus Gold Trade Note launch in Shanghai), the fraudulent basis for the entire Euro Monetary Union with excuse for Italy to exit (Goldman Sachs fraudulent collusion to evade Maastricht Rules), the upcoming Systemic Lehman event that hits both sovereign bonds and entire banking systems, USGovt tariffs in trade war with ulterior motives in Europe and Korea, with final items on marijuana laws, coerced CNN acquisition by AT&T, and challenges for USDollar in gold backing


    June 28th: topics covered include removal of globalist middle level players, self-dealing by owners of the US Federal Reserve, the Trump persona to scuttle NATO, the Eurasian Trade Zone formation & SCO protection, the TPX triumvirate to execute the Global RESET as in Trump Putin Xi, the India & Pakistan detente for the ETZone in its southwestern region, the Petro-Yuan oil settlement with respect to the Gold Standard coming into view, the two key trigger events that release the Gold market from 25 years of suppression (DBank & Italy collapse, plus the Gold Trade Note launch & gold-backed RMB currency), the financial crisis in Turkey, the new role assigned to Turkey in gold office for ETZone toward converting sovereign bonds to gold bullion in Eastern banking systems, the European Union pivot toward Russia with respect to Germany & France, with a view to the St Pete Russian Economic Forum (versus the Davos banker barbeque)

    July 5th: topics covered include the assured failure of Deutsche Bank and the guaranteed collapse of the Italian banking system with French falling dominoes in contagion (WHICH IS CERTAIN TO FINALLY RELEASE THE GOLD PRICE), the coming Gold Trade Note alongside the Petro-Yuan launch with a potential gold backing (ALSO TO RELEASE GOLD AS SECOND TRIGGER), Russia’s recent history battling the Deep State, the Elite & JPMorgan large-scale active hoarding of Silver, the true high price inflation for the economy which means a multi-year recession, the new technology rollout with Silver at the core, unintended consequences of failed USGovt sanctions, the ongoing German defiance of US-led Russian sanctions, the new RMB Hub at the Frankfurt Exchange, the role of Blockchain Technology in the Tokenized Economy

    Armstrong, "The deep state is the bureaucracy. It is not a global organization" "The deep state rose from 1999 onward. The bureaucracy could now be in charge with a president who is clueless. Obama followed Bush and he missed more than 50% of his daily security briefings. The bureaucracy gained substantial power under Bush and Obama. This is why they are so intent upon getting rid of Trump. They want their power back."
    You can see that this is terribly flawed.

    Armstrong, question, "Are central bankers directing the flow of money without any checks or balances? Do you also think that there is an open door between private and central banking that creates endless manipulation of the economy with government support?"

    "ANSWER: At the base of all your questions is the ASSUMPTION that they know what they are doing and that they conspire to create a specific outcome. With that assumption, I disagree."
    "They assume that there is some dark force that lurks behind every event with the intent to create it. They would rather believe that this is the product of an intentional design for that means they can also intentionally reverse it. "
    "Socialism is dying BECAUSE they made promises they cannot keep and they will default in the end. That was never the intent from the outset."
    "There is NO LONG-TERM plan and that proves there is also no such dark force lurking behind events"
    "European Central Bank (ECB) has created an absolute nightmare that endangers the entire world economy. Yellen was, in fact, yelling at Draghi for his stupidity in moving to negative interest rates. He assumed it would force people to spend and reinflate the economy. It backfired and furthered deflation, causing people to hoard their money. The ECB has not stimulated the economy, but instead, it has kept governments on life support. "

    "All of this chaos is because governments are the biggest borrowers in society. This will be our doom and it is why when debt collapses it will destroy the Western economies as they function currently. If confidence in government is so disrupted, there will be no buyers for government debt."
    " “Do you also think that there is an open door between private and central banking that creates endless manipulation of the economy with government support?” No, that is absurd."
    You can see where Armstrong misses the boat. Here is a list of those power groups who are trying to control the world. It does include aliens so, a true list might be shorter.
    It's not like the secret groups are a big secret.


    • Brexit, NATO, energy wars

      The anti-Brexit people claimed that Brexit would bring ruin to England. The truth is a different story.
      "Since the Brexit vote, the UK has created 450 thousand jobs.

      Unemployment stands at a 4% rate, the lowest since 1975. Labor Participation Rate is at 75%. This compares to an EU unemployment of 8.7% and 58% labor participation rate in the 28 member states.

      Productivity is growing at the fastest rate in 6 years, while UK factory orders at 4-year high.
      At the same time, wage growth has accelerated to two-year highs.
      Inflation is above expectations, but that has nothing to do with Brexit and all to do with the Bank of England’s extremely loose monetary policy.

      Additionally, GDP growth is expected to range between at 1.5% and 1.9% for 2018 and 2019, very far away from the expectations of plunging straight into recession just from a Brexit vote."
      The real economy seems to be surviving Brexit just fine. It is the City of London bankers who stand to lose from Brexit. Teresa May seems destined to go down in flames just to support the banks. At the same time, these same bankers will do anything to demonize Russia. They lost the pipeline wars and, are now trying to drive Russia out of the oil markets by other means.

      "Russia attacking NATO makes as much sense as NATO attacking Russia: none whatsoever. Unwinnable. Russia attacking Germany and other European countries, which buy its oil and gas, makes no sense because it would then lose those revenues. From that point of view, European dependence on Russian energy is even a peacemaker, because it benefits both sides."
      "if Putin wants his country strong and independent, the last thing he would do is to risk his oil and gas contracts with Europe. They’re simply too important, economically and politically. Trump may want some of that action for the US, understandably, but for now US LNG can’t compete with Russian pipelines. Simple as that. "

      The power mongers in NYC, D. of C. and Tel Aviv have always lusted over the riches of Central Asia. Specifically the carbon riches. The R.O.W. does not want to be taken over. They are getting more organized.

      NATO is just a slush fund for the arms manufacturers to squeeze Europeans for more and more tax money. Russia and the U.S.S.R. agreed to go quietly into the night when socialism brought them down. We gave them our solemn promise NOT to expand NATO any further East. Bill Clinton broke that promise. The war-mongers like Nuland will do anything to provoke Russia and keep the arms business rolling along.

      "This time it was Germany that took the main hit, over the fact that it pays Russia billions of dollars for oil and gas while relying on the US for its defense … against Russia. "
      "The military-industrial complex (MIC) has every reason to make the threat posed by ‘enemies’ as big as they possibly can"
      "According to GlobalFirePower, the US in 2018 will spend $647 billion on its military, while Russia is to spend a full $600 billion less, at $47 billion. And the US Senate has already voted in a $82 billion boost recently."

      "The solution to the problems Trump indicated this morning is not for Germany et al to spend more on NATO and their military in general, but for the US to spend less. Much less. Because the Russian threat is a hoax that serves the interests of the MIC, the politicians and the media. "
      "To reiterate: developments in weapons technology, for instance hypersonic rocket systems make most other weapons systems obsolete. Which is obviously a big threat to the MIC."

      NATO is just a holdover from the days when armies marched off to war. Those days are gone but, the bloated military still wants a huge chunk of the GDP.

      7/12 China has its currency to use as a weapon in trade war with Trump – CNBC
      7/12 Is currency China’s secret weapon? – Real Money

      Nope, currency manipulation is always a double-edged sword.
      7/12 Trump trade wars turn global asset bubble into weapon of mass destruction – SCMP
      7/12 US-China trade negotiations have ground to a halt – Zero Hedge
      7/12 How Trump’s trade war went from 18 products to 10,000 – New York Times

      The markets can't really tolerate any big bumps in the road.
      7/12 Global debt hits $247 trillion, IIF issues warning – Zero Hedge
      Funny,,, I didn't get any kind of warning from them.

      The whole question of tariffs is NOT an open-and-shut case.

      The ultimate drug pushers (the banker) have destroyed much of Mexico. It used to be my second home.


      • A few thoughts

        A few thoughts in response to your recent posts and whatever else I've been reading and hearing.

        1. A wave of realism seems to be forming. True, some corners are full of stupidity and irrationality, not to mention logical disjointedness. But, at least for a few years now we will have a form of measured reason and common sense.

        2. One point specifically. US Revenue needs to increase if expenses cannot be reduced sharply. The import tariffs increase revenue without taxing personal income directly.

        3. The poorest will not see a huge jump in their expenditures. Discretionary income will not be directly affected.

        4. It is mostly a hidden tax on the middle class and upper classes where more discretionary income is in play.

        5. The war mongers will be mollified because everyone "knows" that trade wars are the harbingers of real military actions.

        6. So, who are the winners and losers? Winners: Poor, military, fiscal conservatives. Losers: Foolish rich, liberals and people that believe foolish nonsense about race, LGBT, etc. (I am trying to stay out of the "weeds")

        7. The decisions around personal spending and corporate spending are being pushed down closer to the individual and away from the higher ups and more restricted and larger corporate entities. So it seems to me.
        There is a reason why science has been successful and technology is widespread. Don't be afraid to do the math and apply the laws of physics.


        • Teresa May's flameout,,, London-Italian-German contagion

          Dunno, Wayne. Point number 2 is not looking good.
          7/12 US budget deficit up 16% y-o-y on soaring interest, plunging corp taxes – Bloomberg
          I don't see a turnaround in tax collection.

          Teresa May is really in the hot seat now. Her white paper proposes;
          "More notably, the White Paper revealed that May has accepted that the UK's banks will need to leave the European banking union. The policy chairman of the City of London, where the UK's financial sector is based, said the proposals outlined in the White Paper would be a "real blow" to the UK banking sector."

          The scare-mongering is at a fever pitch.
          "leading Tory rebel said “ordinary life will grind to a halt” if the talks are still deadlocked as D-Day nears.

          The warning came as Mr Rees-Mogg launched his most outspoken attack yet on big businesses opposing a hard Brexit, claiming they have “got everything wrong in the whole of their history”.

          Solar power and wind power have brought us some good news concerning fission power.

          The bureaucratic overlay of the EU on formerly healthy European States has reduced their GDP by 20%. This is a perfect example of the "blob state" sucking dry it's host country. It doesn't cost very much to pay the MEPs. BUT, it costs enormous amounts of wealth to pay for all the hordes of bureaucrats. So, what happens when you reduce a country's GDP by 20%? Simple, they go broke. Italy is the perfect example. They have reached a "death cross'.

          There is no gdp growth because the blob state sucks out the operating capital,,, for consumption. They can't grow without free capital to invest. Also true, they can't very well grow with a falling population. Bringing in trash from north Africa isn't the answer. They are finally catching on to the problems.

          So, the Brexit crisis is setting off problems with Italian banks. The Italian banks have a huge number of non-performing loans because everybody is broke. The Italian banking crisis weakens the Deutsche bank crisis because they have so much exposure to Italian loans.


          • private money,, The Middle Kingdom astride a dragon

            Armstrong roundly condemns President Jackson for destroying the early Central Bank. "Your are a den of thieves and, I will rout you out".
            Armstrong, "When Andrew Jackson shut down the central bank, the Bank of the United States at that time, all banks began to issue money of their own. The economy was flooded with frauds and nobody knew what banks were real or safe. As banks failed, the States tried to bail out the banks to save their economy and they too were pushed into default. The Depression that followed raised unemployment and violence."
            So, we learn that we need a CENTRAL bank to issue money. BUT, it is still private money.
            "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered"

            The problem according to Armstrong was, too many private banks were issuing money. The ACTUAL problem was privately issued money. The parasite class needs to have control of the issuance of money to create the constant monetary inflation necessary for them to prosper. The FED reportedly creates a 2% inflation of the currency. The price inflation is quite a bit higher. At 4% per year of price inflation, prices double every 18 years. Since wages always lag price inflation, we are always losing.
            The parasite class shrinks to the size of a pimple if it can't inflate the money supply.

            C.H. Smith writes about gangster capitalism in Big Pharma.
            oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Big Pharma and the Rise of Gangster Capitalism
            7/13 Social Security and Medicare add another $50 trillion to national debt – Mauldin
            No problem, The millennials will kick in the money

            China was in a big rush to pump liquidity into every nook and cranny to get all the growth it could. Obviously, you can't force in that amount of debt without making some bad loans. Their ration of non-performing loans is at 17%.
            Think about it. If 17% of loans are not being repaid, how much new credit has to be created to cover up the big, black hole?
            This graph is total debt compared to the GDP. You can see just a bit of levelling off.
            Evidently, this tiny bit of levelling off is creating huge problems. The Chinese wanted to cut back credit creation and, they did. Now, they are having to walk-back the reduction.
            Corporate bond defaults are close to 20%.
            This is an excellent article.
            The Chinese moved 300 + million self-sufficient peasants to the cities and provided them jobs. The jobs were temporary because they impoverished their best customers. The ceiling on wages brought on by the emerging market countries holds down everybody. By loaning and spending money recklessly, the Chines have created a dragon that they can't get off.
            Trump is adding more fuel to the dragon's belly.


            • Ramming at warp 5

              Nothing much new. Nigel Farage says that he expects Teresa May to be out within a fortnight. That gives England very little time to organize a new government before the leave deadline. I seriously doubt that an agreement can be cobbled together. The City of London financiers have threatened that $30 trillion in debt instruments are in danger.
              Buy more popcorn.
              Evidently, Chinese buyers are leaving the property markets in OZ,,, except for New South Wales.

              Armstrong, "Virtually EVERY revolution throughout history appears to emerge from a tax rebellion. It will often expand into ethnic or religious slogans, but at the core, it is always taxation. The American revolution was the class – No Taxation Without Representation. Yet the greed of politicians inevitably leads to their own destruction for they cannot resist spending other people’s money."

              "Programs that have blown up like the Black & Scholes that ended up winning the Noble Prize just before blowing up the world economy in Long-Term Capital Management Crisis of 1998, took place because you had two math geniuses who lacked trading skills. The formula that blew up the Real Estate models in 2007 made the same mistake. "

              Here is an interesting graph that indicates a timeline for the next recession.
              It is an interesting indicator but, the accuracy is dependent on doubtful data.

              "According to the Bank of International Settlements ("BIS"), loans and debts outstanding which burden corporations, households, and the government in the United States have reached $48.3 trillion in the United States or 250% of GDP. Including off-balance sheet items, the effective level of debt outstanding is almost $100 trillion, at $99.6 trillion, or more than 500% of GDP."
              "students have amassed more than $1.5 trillion of student loans, which have increased at a rate of more than 10% per annum since 2006. "

              An early currency reset.
              "[Dionysus] ordered all the coin in the city to be brought to him, under penalty of death. After taking up the collection, he re-stamped the coins, giving to each drachma the value of two drachmae, so that he was enabled to pay back both the original loan and the money he had ordered brought to the mint."

              Credit to households ($15.25 trillion or 79.7% of GDP)
              Credit to Non-Financial corporations ($14.26 trillion or 73.5% of GDP Government debt ($18.81 trillion or 97.0% of U.S. GDP)
              Pension underfunding ($2.25 trillion or 11.6% of GDP)
              Social insurance obligations ($49.0 trillion or 253% of GDP
              interest payments for U.S. corporations, households, and government entities are now almost two trillion dollars annually, representing almost 10% of U.S. GDP. If interest rates were to rise to historical levels, these interest rate payments would crush the U.S. economy and likely result in another debt crisis. Even without the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further, interest payments should exceed 10% of GDP sometime in 2018"
              Why the Fed Raised Rates for the Seventh Time in Three Years

              Here is a graph of the unemployment rate,
              Labor market conditions,
              "Job growth, a key consideration for the Fed, is robust

              The economy has added 192,000 jobs a month on average since the Fed began raising rates at the end of 2015. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.8 percent"
              96 million not in the labor force.
              So, employment is way up and, Powell is going to continue to raise rates.
              Corporate profits are doing very well.

              What do you see if you look under the hood?
              " Global debt ended the first quarter at a record $247 Trillion, or 318% of GDP. Even after a decade of historic Credit inflation, global debt continues to expand at ("Terminal Phase") double-digit rates (11.1% y-o-y).
              "Global debt growth accelerated during the first quarter to $8.0 Trillion - and surged $30 Trillion over just the past five quarters. In a single data point not to be disregarded, Global Debt Has Expanded (a difficult to fathom) $150 Trillion, or 150%, Over the Past Ten Years. "
              Don't worry, we're in recovery,,, aren't we?

              "total debts owed by households, governments and financial and non-financial corporations amounted to $247.2tn at the end of March, up from $222.6tn a year earlier and an increase of nearly $8tn in the first quarter alone."
              "The IIF said the debts of non-financial corporations in EMs rose $1.5tn in the first quarter to $31.5tn, the equivalent of 94.4% of GDP"
              This category includes Chinese manufacturers. That might be why NPLs are 17.5% in China. Powell is bringing the U.S. ship of State up to ramming speed. He knows that the whole world will blow. BUT, America has a safety net and, China does not. The system will blow any way. Powell wants to raise rates until something pops.
              Powell wants to use the declining momentum from our Bretton Woods credit card to keep imports coming to America. China wants to use the eternal confidence in gold to keep commerce going in China.

              I suspect that they will clobber the gold markets when they feel that they have accumulated all that they can. They will blow up the paper market to make the physical market reflect actual supply.
              The world is entering a trade war. Trade wars often turn in to shooting wars. This time is different. The new weapons can easily reach the politicians wherever they are hiding.
              Pox Americana already attacked China with a dumb weapon.
              The Chinese and Russians now have smart weapons.

              Powell has thrown a hand-grenade into credit markets. It is up to Trump to try to hold things together.


              • Highlights of the trade war

                The trade war has only just started and, Maersk Shipping appears to be it's first big causality.
                "The bigger worry is its economy is slowing more quickly than expected at the same time Chinese authorities are trying to remove mountains of debt built in the financial system.

                If it is a problem for China's economy, it is a problem for the global economy in general and Australia's economy in particular."
                "Among the largest economic risks that Australia faces is something going wrong in China,"
                Trade war masks a bigger problem in China's slowing economy - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
                The boom in OZ is very much correlated to the boom in China. China is trying to do a balancing act by slowing credit growth but, not by too much.

                Armstrong, "As soon as you borrow in another currency, you will then encounter FOREX risk. Third world countries have been borrowing in dollars extensively. As the dollar rises, we will see defaults BECAUSE of the currency risk. At the very least, countries must be prohibited from borrowing in foreign currencies, or preferably, governments should be prohibited from borrowing PERIOD! "
                Here is the good news from this same article;
                There are other ways to restructure the global financial system. I am preparing the full solution that we need to examine based upon history and what has worked and what has failed.
                I hope that he has a good plan. Times are different now.
                Capital can be transported instantly.
                Labor can NOT be transported instantly so, they move the factory instead of moving the laborers.
                Raw materials and finished goods can be transported very fast.
                The low-wage States put a ceiling on wages. At the same time, China has a shrinking labor force. At the same time, automation reduces demand for a labor force. All of the above shrinks world consumptive power.

                The working class are content to work and, get by. The self-appointed elites dream of empire and, they bring down their own country. Erdogan is well on his way to destroying Turkey.

                Here is a list and map of the States with the most debt. America barely makes the list.
                One detail, " governments also have massive “unfunded liabilities” that don’t show in the numbers above. "
                Notice how they have shrunk India on the map to a pipsqueak.

                "Importantly, households aren’t driving this. Governments accounted for 43% of the increase McKinsey cites and nonfinancial corporate debt was 41%. That is where I think the coming train crash will originate. Governments have more debt than corporations,"
                Armstrong has predicted a crash in GOV debt. It looks like the States are hard at work to prove him right.

                7/16 Every inflation measurement is increasing – Upfina
                7/16 US has 99 trade war problems, but inflation isn’t one – Hill

                " President Trump escalated the trade war yesterday, making a kamikaze attack on a vast armada of Chinese imports – $200 billion in total – headed for California."
                We saw our colleague, former U.S. budget chief under President Reagan, David Stockman, on TV yesterday. The interview was painful to watch.

                He was bravely trying to explain the trade deficit and why it was caused by monetary policy, not by trade ramparts that were too low.

                But the young, know-it-all newscasters were such numbskulls – so lacking in any experience, theory, or historical perspective – he might as well have been instructing a walrus on how to chew gum. "
                "The three TV experts saw no problem with the trade deficit… and no danger approaching from Trump’s war on it."
                The article is pretty good. What it addresses is; Powell has brought us up to ramming speed while Trump is lobbing hand grenades at China. China faces the impossible trinity.
                America faces a dearth of domestic oil production. D.C. is trying to exploit weaknesses in Chinese financial markets. I suspect that China will prevail in the end. Pox Americana has attacked every State that exports oil. When push comes to shove and, fracking blows up (financially), America will find itself short of oil.
                Russia, et al are forming a super OPEC. They will put the squeeze on American (and European) militarism. This will be good for everyone in the end... except for those who dream of military empires.


                • The currency reset,,, squeezing Dems

                  ALL currencies eventually get destroyed or revalued. America's unique position after WW II allowed it to pull in a lot of wealth. We had 25,500 tons of gold. The welfare-warfare state pissed this away. We had lots of oil. We burned it. We had the Bretton Woods credit card. We maxxed it out. The debts in the West are just too high and, growing too fast. We can't very well have a credit collapse without also having a currency collapse.
                  I wrote to some knowledgeable people asking when the banks would close.
                  Nobody knows. Though everybody seems to be too early on their projections. Here are two headline to keep in mind.
                  7/17 Greyerz: The reset will come like a theif in the night – King World News
                  7/17 IMF warns of “sudden repricing” of assets as global economy slows – Zero Hedge

                  This was my experience during a currency reset when I was in Mexico.

                  Youtube titles;
                  Trump is Preparing! TRUMP & Global Currency Reset
                  GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET IMMINENT ? ABEL DANGER thinks so!!
                  TRUMP & Global Currency Reset: Monetary Reform Would Rebalance Trade
                  ARTK#165/Pt.2: Sherry Beall on Global Currency Reset shift with Lynette Zang

                  Central banker lets slip Global Financial Reset is underway | IQD Dinar Currency Exchange RV
                  Dinar Revaluation 2018 (Weekend News) Global Currency Reset Soon?
                  Jim Willie GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET: The Largest Something In History Is Happening Worldwide
                  IMF Warning 🆘 Global Currency Reset Confirm 100%! Dollars/Euros/Yen/Yuan,Etc - Are You
                  Here's Jim Willie,

                  "GET READY FOR THE SIMULTANEOUS BANKING CRISIS IN THE THREE BIGGEST EUROPEAN ECONOMIES: GERMANY, FRANCE, ITALY. The United States and the London Centre will not be able to avoid the crisis."
                  "The largest bank in Europe is Deutsche Bank. Its credit default swap is rising in cost, while its stock price has entered single digits in a powerful decline. The great D-Bank, site of the European office in management of the multi-$trillion derivatives, is on the verge of financial failure. It is the largest bank in all of Europe. All of its business segments are impaired and losing money in a hemorrhage. Furthermore, it is a big bond holder for Italian Govt Bonds. The Italian banking system is in the death throes, which has finally been recognized. Their recent elections openly debated pathways in the face of banking system failure,"
                  You should read the whole article.

                  History dictates that something like this must happen.

                  The housing bubble moves into stage 2.
                  "The world real estate market is HUGE, over $200 trillion. That dwarfs the global debt and equity markets."
                  This is a good article with an excellent graph that I can't bookmark.

                  Jim Willie, "They also have been hurt by the rising bond yields for the USTreasurys. The lie on economic growth has been about 5% to 7% every year, from severely gimmicked price inflation. See Shadow Govt Statistics with John Williams for proof. Therefore, the true inflation adjusted GDP has been minus 2% to minus 4% every year since before the Lehman failure."
                  Keep in mind that U.S. GOV spends about 24% of the gdp. Armstrong says that it is actually much higher. Keep in mind that advertising and finance are included in the gdp even though they produce nothing. The true productive gdp has fallen for years.

                  "Thus, the $2.5 quadrillion monster bubble contains just empty promises that all disappear when the bubble is popped. These promises are not only words, but also $2.5 quadrillion of monetary promises or IOUs. To keep the bubble from deflating, central banks have had to constantly pump it up bigger and bigger. "
                  "When the global debt and asset bubble pops, the world will find out that there was nothing inside. Of course, there are real assets and real wealth, but the problem is that when the bubble pops, all the debt will implode because no one can repay it, and with that, a lot of the assets will become worthless. "
                  "The only question is if stocks, bonds, property, and other assets, will go down by 75% or 95%. In my view, the biggest bubble in history will lead to the biggest collapse. There is no one that can save the world from the biggest financial calamity in history."
                  Wait, what about the SDR?
                  A good read;

                  The IMF,

                  7/16 IRS revokes 362,000 passports over taxes – Sovereign Man
                  36 Obama aides owe $833,000 in back taxes | Investor's Business Daily
                  Politicians Who Skipped Out On Taxes - Investopedia

                  Soros-Linked Nonprofit Led By Hillary And Obama
                  Alum Spending Millions To 'Stop' Kavanaugh

                  Federal prosecutors are digging into everything that Kavanaugh did. They can speed up the process of following all the trails that eventually lead back to Killary and Obummer. They can subpoena anyone that they want and, those people can't leave the country.... not if they owe the IRS.
                  Soros is trying to block the paths that lead back to Obummer. The Dems would quash an investigation into Killary. They can't very well quash a required investigation in to Kavanaugh.
                  Last edited by Danny B; 07-17-2018, 02:58 PM. Reason: sbelling


                  • Believe me, the stock market will continue to go UP,,, bureaucrats

                    The IMF., BIS and many writers are warning about the complacency of investors. NOTHING seems to dampen their chase of profits. This isn't entirely true because some investors are leaving.
                    "The insiders can see the handwriting on the wall and they are getting out of the market at a pace that we haven’t seen since 2008"
                    "But for now, the talking heads on television continue to insist that everything is just fine and that the stock market still has more room to go up…

                    There’s still room for stock markets to rise and worries of an impending recession are premature, according to Berenberg Capital Markets’ chief economist.

                    “Even if profits peaked in (the first quarter of) 2018, which remains uncertain, history suggests the stock market has room to appreciate,” Mickey Levy, Berenberg’s chief Americas and Asia economist, said in a client note this week. "
                    Ron Paul said that the stock market had quadrupled since 2009 and, that it would be cut in half by the crash. John Hussman claims that it will be more likely to lose 75---90%

                    7/17 Warnings of market complacency grow louder as IMF joins fray – Bloomberg
                    7/17 Morgan Stanley’s stock market analyst warns clients to get defensive – CNBC

                    Bonds are going down. Reportedly, stocks will be crashed / sacrificed to save bonds.
                    Remember that Armstrong said that GOV debt would crash but, that it wouldn't affect the overall economy very much. A LIE if I ever heard one.
                    Our mega-bubble has reached a new milestone;

                    The deep state is those people who make a lot of money by continuing U.S. and world militarism. The "blob State" is those people who are the bureaucrats and functionaries. Armstrong incorrectly lumps them all together. The blob state doesn't set any policy.

                    Rules of Bureaucracies
                    1) The first thing you do is assign blame. Do not fix the problem, but make sure that blame is assigned. Remember if you fix the problem, your job is at risk.
                    2) Assign your work to someone else
                    3) Vote/assign yourself salary raises and as many perks as you can get.

                    "Corporations also fail when the board replaces the creators, abandon imagination, and proceed to comply with all the rules so they are run by the lawyers and accountants."
                    "The Deep State is indeed the bureaucracy. Just look at Brussels. They are waging a fight against anything that would undermine the euro, not to further the living standards or expand the economy of Europe. It has now turned all around and the primary goal is to preserve the EU bureaucracy. They now are defending their jobs. "


                    • Market fragility

                      "The insiders can see the handwriting on the wall and they are getting out of the market at a pace that we haven’t seen since 2008"
                      OK, but, where are they going?
                      With the help of computers, people can do far better analytics than ever before. Here is the perfect example.

                      The Warren Buffet Indicator
                      He compares the size of the stock market to GDP, the premise being that the US stock market should not be bigger than the country’s annual economic output. If it is, the market is overvalued. If it’s smaller than GDP, it is, by varying degrees, undervalued.
                      Right now, the stock market is 40% larger than the US economy. It’s the second-highest reading since 1947.

                      Margin Debt
                      As you can probably surmise, the greater the level of margin debt, the more fragile the system is.
                      Well, margin debt is currently at the highest level in history:
                      With margin debt at all-time highs, the stock market is highly vulnerable to a crash. Once stocks begin to decline, whether it happens slowly or quickly, more and more investors will be forced to sell, or worse get a “margin call” where they must either deposit more money in the account or sell some of their investments, which would further exacerbate the selloff.

                      The Market Fragility Index
                      Mike combines the Buffet Indicator with margin debt to create the Market Fragility Index. It is a new metric you won’t find anywhere else.
                      As you can see, Mike’s indicator shows the stock market is now so high that it is a “threat to the global financial system.” Every time this indicator got this high in the past we experienced a severe financial, economic, or monetary crisis. And we’re now at the highest reading it has ever registered.
                      In other words, the stock market is more fragile now than at any time in history. It’s not just top-heavy; the combined amount of leverage and lofty valuations we have today exceed even those of 1929.

                      For some painfully idiotic reason, analysts seem to judge Netflix by a single benchmark: the number of subscribers.

                      If subscriber growth is strong, Netflix stock soars.

                      I say this is ‘painfully idiotic’ because Netflix loses money year after year. The more subscribers they bring in, the more money they lose.

                      At the end of 2015, for example, Netflix had 75 million subscribers. But its Free Cash Flow was NEGATIVE $920 million.

                      The following year, Netflix had grown its subscriber base to 93 million. Yet its Free Cash Flow had sunk even further to negative $1.65 billion.

                      By the end of 2017, Netflix subscribers totaled 117 million. But the company burned through $2.02 billion."

                      We are not looking a just a stock market crash. Things are too far gone for that. It will also be a monetary crash and a CURRENCY crash.

                      So, money is fleeing the sock market. Where will it go?
                      "The fact is that the Fed HAS TO act to stop the bond bubble from bursting. And it’s going to do this by crashing stocks, and driving capital into the bond market to force yields lower."
                      "This is why the Fed continues to hike interest rates and drain liquidity from the financial system via its now $40 billion per month QT program: the Fed HAS TO get bond yields back below their trendline."
                      ANYONE who would be in a position to buy GOV bonds would most likely be aware of Armstrong's premier forecast that GOV bonds are going to crash.

                      "In other words, the takeaway was that the Fed is going to keep gradually raising interest rates until something breaks. And that something could very well be the yield curve."
                      "The overarching view seems to be that policy makers will deal with an inverted yield curve if and when it happens. “
                      "Soon after that remark, the yield spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries reached a session low of 24 basis points."
                      Powell is going to get bit in the a$$ by the yield curve inversion. "until something breaks". Market fragility is the worst ever recorded and, Powell is going to raise rates until something breaks.

                      The CBs stuffed the markets to the gills to stave off defaults. In 2008, the lower loop defaulted heavily and, the FED saved the upper loop. Much of the bad paper from the upper loop was stuffed into GOV balance sheets. The stock market is not far from blowing all to hell. This will work it's way up into the bond markets. The default cascade will overtake the upper loop AND, GOV bonds.

                      Armstrong writes that the value of a commodity backed currency does not vary because of political events. The value of an un-backed currency varies with every shift in confidence. Brilliant guy but, he can't avoid slipping in a lie if it suits his viewpoint.
                      "If we had a money supply that could NEVER change, then you would create deflation as the population grew. "
                      This is the big lie. The gold supply grows by about 2% a year. The economy grows by about 2% a year. This 2% number is UNACCEPTABLE to the bankers. It leaves nothing for the parasites. Don't forget that the population is falling

                      "When money began to appear as paper currency, this altered the monetary system for then the value of that currency was dependent upon the “confidence” of the people in that currency."

                      "If we had a money supply that could NEVER change, then you would create deflation as the population grew. If there were only 10 gold coins and a population of 5 people, then everyone could have two coins, but one will inevitably have 4 because they invented something others wanted."
                      YES, capitalism involves work and, the "best" people survive and thrive.

                      7/18 Why investors are opting for bitcoin futures – US News
                      7/18 How quantum computers could steal your bitcoin –


                      • eX US stocks falling,. dollar rising

                        There is a lot going on but, much of it is subtle.
                        7/19 Japan, EU sign trade deal to eliminate nearly all tariffs – CNBC
                        Those tariffs are income to the State.
                        Armstrong,"Rio Tinto spent $940 million to develop this project. The train consists of three locomotives and carries around 28,000 tonnes of iron ore making a journey of 280km with no human driver."
                        So, for $940 million, they eliminated an engineers job.
                        "The high cost of socialism is driving the field of robotics. The higher the costs of pensions and their lack of feasibility when central banks play with interest rates pretending to be managing the economy has driven the technology into the hands of automation. Governments are in a state of denial and they will continue to raise taxes to try to cover their costs. "
                        What a bonehead. When is he going to advocate killing all the people who don't support themselves? Sure, go ahead,,, condemn socialism. Turn 250 million (in the West) out onto the streets. It was MONETARY policy that brought the price inflation that makes it impossible for retirees to survive. It was endless wars that ate up the pension (SS) money. They suffer from a wealth transfer. Armstrong says,,, let them eat air.

                        "The Shanghai Composite Index of stocks has declined 7 percent in a month, dropping below the government’s red line of 3,000 for the first time since September 2016. Corporate bonds are about to set a record for the most defaults in a year. daily press reports on governments that can’t pay their employees or meet pension obligations."
                        "When dollars enter, the central bank buys them and issues renminbi. If it has to issue more than is justified by the amount of inflows, it creates inflation, and inflation, which has toppled or almost toppled governments from the Ming dynasty to Tiananmen, is the third rail of Chinese politics."

                        Side note, 7/19 China boosts liquidity, set to ease more trade war threatens – Reuters The dragon will get them in the end.

                        "Until now, China has managed to keep its huge raft of nonperforming debt afloat thanks to capital inflows, as successive waves of quantitative easing pushed dollars into the world. A tighter dollar would seem to make the bursting of China’s credit bubble an inevitability. "
                        Note to Powell.

                        The dollar is sharply rising. This wipes out dollar-denominated debt in all other currencies. Imagine playing a game of "chicken" with Molotov coattails,,,, in your living room.
                        Here is a very good article on the dollar,,,, a weapon.
                        "And dollar-based sanctions are a powerful financial weapon for the U.S. But our adversaries and so-called allies are not standing still. They are already envisioning a world where the dollar is not the major reserve and trade currency.

                        In the longer run, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and others are working flat-out to invent and implement nondollar transactional currencies and independent payments systems."
                        Trump is really pushing sanctions. This gives great motivation to many States to avoid the dollar altogether. That isn't the key item.
                        "imagine a three-way trade in which North Korea sells weapons to Iran, Iran sells oil to China and China sells food to North Korea. All of these transactions can be recorded on a blockchain and netted out on a quarterly basis with the net settlement payment made in gold shipped to the party with the net balance due."

                        Do you see it? There is NO mention of any bank. A migration to the blockchain sidelines the banks. Instead of currencies being exchanged, all transactions go to the blockchain and, are netted out in gold. Currency will be used in day-to-day transactions but, gold will be the store of value.

                        Interesting article from Armstrong on his history and development.

                        Everyone is warning about complacency in the stock market. It looks like tech stocks are starting to tumble.
                        "$FB, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT and $AAPL. These 5 stocks now worth nearly $4.1 trillion." "Now check this out: Their combined market cap increase? $260,000,000,000. That’s $260B. In just the past ELEVEN trading DAYS!" "2018 year to date? EIGHT HUNDRED TWELVE BILLION DOLLARS market cap expansion in just 6.5 months. $812,000,000,000."
                        Great graphs,

                        Also, this is spilling over into other markets.
                        "The strength of the USD is starting to become a lot more visible over the past 48 hours. In some countries, its looks as though currencies require a helping hand just to slow their downward spiral. "
                        "All of core Europe suffered today either through stock or currency. " "Core US indices were in negative territory all day." "Financials falling around 1.5% reversing much of their recent gains. Commodities (Industrial Metals) and retailers (eBay down 12%) "

                        Powell is bring the U.S ship of state up to ramming speed. Presumably to destroy China. Maybe Powell expects to attract fleeing capital. Everybody who is anybody is aware of Armstrong's main prediction fo a collapse of public debt. I don't expect much fleeing capital to go to GOV bonds.
                        Russia dumped more treasuries and (possibly) the Cayman Islands scooped them up. I'm doubtful.
                        7/19 Moscow mystery: Where did all its Treasuries go? – GATA


                        • Shots fired,,, at China

                          7/20 How can we reverse Brexit when Europe doesn’t want us back? – Prospect
                          "They" are starting to get very nervous about a no-deal Brexit.
                          Dominic Raab faces EU's Barnier for first time amid no-deal warnings | Daily Mail Online
                          May, has gone to war with just about everybody. She shouldn't rattle markets when German, Italian and French banks are teetering on the edge of insolvency.

                          And then, there is China. Dollar liquidity is drying up, especially for emerging markets. No dollars = no loan service.
                          7/20 A China borrower’s $11 billion debt mountain comes crashing down – Bloomerg
                          Imagine the contagion from that.
                          7/19 “Biggest bubble in history of mankind” is “going to burst” — Ron Paul – GC
                          7/20 China’s yuan plunges again. Is a currency war coming? – CNN
                          The dragon has heartburn from too much printing.

                          7/20 China weaponizes yuan, weakens fix by most since 2016 – ZH
                          It's not like they have any choice. The markets are just reacting to China's attempt to save everything.
                          7/20 Trade war with China morphs into currency war, biggest loser EU – Mish
                          Give it time and, we will all lose.
                          7/20 Housing chaos in 30 Chinese cities – Chinese stocks
                          This has only just started.

                          The tech bubble just keeps growing. The hot money never seems to stop flowing.
                          7/19 Initial jobless claims sink to 48-year low – MarketWatch Obviously, everything is great.

                          7/20 Everyone is smart except Trump – Spectator
                          Kennedy resigned to open the door for Kavanaugh. Federal prosecutors are digging into every detail of Kavanaugh's past. They will eventually air out all the details of Vince Foster's death. The Dems are fighting the nomination BUT, the investigation will go regardless if he is nominated or not.


                          • Re-ordering the power structure

                            Here is an excerpt from a comment on an article about re-ordering the power structure. Excellent article.

                            The honey badger of money. Honey-Badger don't care. Some folks think Bitcoin requires the internet to work. Totally false. To settle a transaction from .01 to 1 Billion dollars, you need 256 bytes of information. You could write it on paper, mail it to a BTC node, and they would be able to send your arms dealer his payment, and nobody but him could use the transaction to get paid.

                            Now you can create a robot with money to spend. If he pays someone (your arms dealer) to do something, good luck to whomever brings conspiracy charges.

                            Just like Ethereum but instead of paying for each robot move, you buy some bandwidth. All you can eat ETH. Now you fire your arms dealer and replace him with a robot that can contact the arms manufacturers.

                            The backbone of the new transaction system, THE LIGHTNING NETWORK. Lightning replaces Visa Mastercard and SWIFT and allows instant settlement between Litecoin and Bitcoin.

                            YouScrewd and GnatFlix just lost their centralized stranglehold on content publication and your home cable box just replaced their massive server farms. Also, instead of paying for cable every month, now you pay a few hundredths of a cent when you watch and only then, but by hosting content on your cable box, you actually make more $$$ than you spend. Check it, the content providers have been begging Cox/TimeWarner to do this for years, and stop making them pay for ESPN. Too late. This is also the only way netflix-style service ever gets into the African Bush. Decentralize everything!

                            Blockchain In General
                            Everything a corporation can do, a Decentralized Autonomous Organization can do with 10% of the overhead. The CEO's Lambo is gone, and your costs drop by 90%. If you can figure this out today, and not 5 years from now, you can be the kid who bought Microsoft in 1978 for every industry. And you can give a BTC or two to a ponzi scheme in the process. Good luck.



                            • Missing gold,,, panic in China

                              The Swiss have the reputation of being TOTALLY trustworthy when it comes to anything that involves banking. It appears that justification for this trust is a thing of the past. They are refusing to deliver gold that is held in allocated accounts. The high cost of the storage fees proves that the gold is allocated to the named customer. They no longer list bar numbers. The banks are so used to playing fast & loose with customer funds that they do the same thing with gold.

                              7/21 The trade war could soon “go nuclear” – Casey Research
                              "China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $578.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2016."
                              7/21 China firms went deep into debt. Here come the details – Washington Post
                              7/21 China’s P2P platform failures surge as panic spreads – Bloomber

                              7/21 Italian markets rattled after Tria’s future thrown into doubt – Bloomberg
                              7/21 EU fine will demolish Google’s earnings – MarketWatch

                              7/21 Russian gold reserves rise by another 500,000 ounces – SmaulGold
                              Notice that the States with the best intel services are all running to gold. They probably have a good idea of when the default cascade starts.
                              7/20 Prelude to a 2008 event — paper gold manipulation intensifies – GATA
                              The more that the price of gold is driven down, the more that China, Russia and Turkey buy it up.

                              Bernanke, Geithner & Paulson Warn - 'We've Forgotten The Lessons Of The Financial Crisis'
                              We actually never learned them.


                              • China bust,,public pensions

                                The Bretton Woods agreement meant that all States had to work for dollars if they wanted reserve assets. In turn, they invested those dollars back into U.S. assets and U.S. Treasury bonds. Everybody sent their earnings back to us. We used this wealth to make war. America is still running on momentum from this arrangement and, the R.O.W. sends us about $3 trillion a year in fleeing capital. Since America is inflating the dollar at a FAR lower pace than many other States, dollar confidence remains. The more capital flight weak suffered by weak economies / jurisdictions, the more they have to inflate the money supply to avoid deflation of supply. This reduces confidence and, the process is self-reinforcing.

                                The whole world uses fake money and, it remains to be seen just how much longer this can go on. Don't forget contagion.
                                7/22 Surge in global credit driven by China; deflationary bust coming – Mish
                                China is riding the credit dragon. If they don't feed it, it will eat them. The more that they print, the more deflation they get.
                                7/22 Six reasons why Credit Suisse is worried about China’s economy – Zero Hedge
                                7/22 War of words erupts between China central bank and Ministry of Finance – ZH
                                7/20 Asian shares rise as yuan slides by the most in 2 years – MarketWatch

                                Remember that when the Yuan falls, it is much more expensive to service dollar-denominated loans. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag.

                                The blob state is hard at work to preserve the only thing that matters to them.
                                "When interest rates decline, income from savings collapsed. So while the theory was to lower interest rates to “stimulate” the economy, the central banks have discovered a dark hidden secret — demand-side economics has utterly failed. Saving for retirement has failed. Your house has failed to provide a savings account and states are broke so they keep raising property taxes."
                                "Government pensions keep demanding higher taxes to exploit the public so government unions survive. In many states, the promises handed to union workers are bankrupting everything"

                                "According to the study, accrued liabilities—how much states are on the hook for—between 2003 and 2016 grew more than 50% faster than the economies in 28 states and more than twice as fast as GDP in 12 states. Leading the list are the usual suspects of New Jersey (4.3 times faster than GDP), Illinois (3.23) and Connecticut (3.18), as well as New Hampshire (3.46) and Kentucky (3.08).
                                Between 2003 and 2016, New Jersey’s pension liability ballooned 176%."
                                "Yet when the Illinois Supreme Court in 2015 blocked state pension reforms, the judges rebuked politicians for inadequately funding pensions. The solution, according to unions, is always to raise taxes. But no tax hike is ever enough because benefits keep growing faster than revenues."

                                The Brexit spat is threatening to get very ugly.