Economic pressures

[Danny B]

No more carrots

Did the crypto buyers think that FED GOV would ignore the inward capital flows?... the huge gains?
"Don’t say I didn’t warn you about Coinbase. I told Sovereign Man: Confidential readers last month: If you’re tempted to purchase Bitcoin from the popular Coinbase exchange, don’t bother. They’ve sold out to regulators."
"But you can be sure, there will be a public beheading. This is something governments almost always do." "They’ll find a prominent Bitcoin person, someone that’s polarizing to the public – like “pharma bro” Martin Shkreli.
It will be a very public trial… and they’ll throw his a$$ in the slammer.
Government’s always do this because they want to scare people.
Kim Dotcom is the perfect example."
"Instead of trying to make it clear, their tactic is intimidation, force and coercion. This is just the beginning. There will be more."
The Government Is Coming For Your Bitcoin | Zero Hedge

12/04 From paradise to blacklist: EU’s net starts to close on tax havens – Guardian
12/04 Bitcoin investors may end up with a sack of fool’s gold – Guardian
12/04 Crypto is the biggest thing in the history of humanity – Medium
12/04 Cash, gold, 2x — what the fork! – Hackern Noon
12/03 The reason for bitcoin’s plunge: UK plans regulatory crackdown – ZH
The State writes the rules,,, always in their favor.

"Indeed it could be argued that the prospect of tax cuts is the final carrot the free money scheme has to offer. The carrot top. No more carrots.
Consider the central banking liquidity game has peaked and is dropping off:"
Great graph of the withdrawal of liquidity from the CBs.
https://i2.wp.com/northmantrader.com...77%2C266&ssl=1
"Margin debt now at $561bn, double amount of tech bubble of 2000, 47% > than in 2007”:"
https://i1.wp.com/northmantrader.com...52%2C325&ssl=1
"The prospect of imminent tax cuts keeps investor salivating and allocating cash into all time highs as markets drenched in 8 years of artificial liquidity find tax cuts to be the next carrot to push markets caps into the stratosphere:"
https://northmantrader.com/2017/12/03/the-carrot-top/
12/03 Fear of missing out keeps investors in stocks despite risks – Reuters

"In yesterday’s analysis, I compared Janet Yellen to an athlete running the high-hurdles at a track meet. Her finish line is a rate hike on December 13.
The hurdles are inflation data, the Trump tax cut, and a government shutdown on December 8. She has to clear all three hurdles to make it to the finish line.

These hurdles are all conveniently time-stamped. The inflation data came out this morning, the tax bill vote is scheduled for Friday, and the government shutdown is scheduled for next Friday, December 8."
https://dailyreckoning.com/the-fed-is-in-limbo/
Yellen is determined to raise the interest rate. The site "economica" has clearly show that the interest rate follows the rise and fall of the 16---64 year olds. The main consumers. Not only is consumption falling as the global-mean-wage takes it's toll; the fallout has reduced reproduction. Japan has clearly proved that you can't have a growing market with a falling population. More proof is on the way.
https://medium.com/migration-issues/...7-2f63907402fc

[Danny B]

Armstrong, his lessions and his bias

"it appears that the politicians are kicking the can down the road because they KNOW what will happen. It also appears that they have created lower interest rates to allow them to reduce their borrowing costs and spend more. I hate to burst everyone’s bubble here, but the truth is MUCH WORSE. All of these assumptions and conspiracy theories are based upon the common foundation that they PRESUME the politicians even understand what they are doing. They are NOT that intelligent. Sorry!"
"Politicians have absolutely ZERO perspectives on the future. They assume that whatever trend is in motion, will remain in motion."

"They actually believe their own lies. They believe that their debt is AAA and people will buy it forever above all else no matter what they do. When I say that have never been the historical case, I get the classic statement – this time it’s different!"
"They understands that the lower rates are undermining the pension system. It may be helping government spend more, but politicians control fiscal policy and the central bank controls only monetary policy. No central bank can stabilize the fiscal spending."
This puts the FED on a collision course with the state.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...down-the-road/

David Stockman has been very clear that the tax cut bill is a gift to the rich (carrot) to keep the markets from falling. Armstrong takes an opposing view that lowering the tax on corporate America is a good thing. I believe that he is too short-sighted. He never takes into account the human angle. He doesn't seem to factor in falling population and birth rate.
"The biggest controversial provision is eliminating the deduction for state income tax. "
"The real estate killer is also here. Up to now, those who itemize deduction have been deducting their property taxes as well as their state and local income or sales taxes. There have been many who called for this to be eliminated for it too is subsidizing reckless local spending with no accountability."
So, is welfare reckless if it holds back a revolution?
"The big change will be how the US-based multinational corporations will be taxed. Currently, U.S. companies pay taxes on all their profits, regardless of where the income is earned."
"The entire problem stems from the fact that Congress never defined “income” in the legislation. That left the door open for the Supreme Court to determine what was and what was not income."
"In the end, the Court decided that the stock dividend was not taxable because it was merely a book adjustment"

"This holding that a citizen of the United States is forever an indentured servant of the country and can never escape taxes even if they left the country permanently. "
"But once it is concerning taxes, the Supreme Court reverted to you are the property of the state."
"This ruling could wipe out profits in BitCoin since it is marketed as a currency and that means it would be taxable even if you did not cash-in BitCoin"
"While the Trump Tax Reform will certainly not benefit the rich, the critics who simply argue the national debt will rise are just arguing nonsense. The national debt will continually rise because there is NEVER a balanced budget and there is NEVER any intent to ever pay off the debt."
Stockman argues that $trillions more will be loaded onto the backs of the taxpayers. If the rich get a cut and the middle class have no money, nobody has to pay the debt. The FED is on the hook and,,, wants out.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-pass-through/

"The tax cut critics are really just morons if not outright evil people who just want to rob anyone who has more than them. Their analysis put the bill’s total price at $1 trillion, contradicting the Republican argument that the measure would essentially pay for itself. They act as if this is somehow different than Obama, who increased spending that went into the pockets of the bankers.

Obama took the budget in his first year from a $459 billion deficit to $1,413 billion and that was OK. His deficits dramatically increased the national debt in his first four years 400% times greater than the Trump tax cut. So why do these people hate tax cuts and constantly point to the rich?"
"As long as the socialists are taking bribes from the rich and the money goes out the back-door, that is OK because it is not in your face. As soon as we talk about giving the people a DIRECT tax break, then the socialists just cannot stand letting the people actually benefit directly just for once."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...t-a-tax-break/

"It is fundamental. The more you raise taxes, the higher the unemployment, and the lower the economic growth. But if you are a politician, it puts more money in your pocket. So they act only in self-interest."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rman-tax-cuts/
Armstrong is engaging in selective blindness here. He makes almost no mention of demographics. He makes no mention of crashing birth rates. He is too focused on the corporate world and his program has no baseline for a population that declines to reproduce.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...rman-tax-cuts/

[Danny B]

More numbers,,, NO money,, Eastern rail

“Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.”
"Stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biases – therefore valuations and fundamentals are simply a reflection of those emotions.
In other words, bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise."
"First, it is important to notice that with the exception of only 1929, 2000 and 2007, every other major market crash occurred with valuations at levels LOWER than they are currently. Secondly, all of these crashes have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels such as liquidity issues, government actions, monetary policy mistakes, recessions or inflationary spikes. However, those events were only a catalyst, or trigger, that started the “panic for the exits” by investors."

"Market crashes are an “emotionally” driven imbalance in supply and demand. You will commonly hear that “for every buyer, there must be a seller.” This is absolutely true. The issue becomes at “what price." Terrible flaw ! The Central Bank buys everything with free money to restore confidence. The higher a price they pay,,, the more that confidence rises. Market crashes are more related to the balance between greed & fear.
"with the exception of only 1929, 2000 and 2007," The '29 crash occurred because Benjamin Strong (head of the FED) was illegally selling treasury bonds on the secondary market and inflating the "money" supply far beyond what was allowed by the gold standard. That is why the "roaring 20s" were roaring. The crashes of 1997, 2000 and 2007 were AFTER Nixon was forced to abandon the gold standard. The FED printed with wild abandon. The fox guarding the hen house.
"He is absolutely right. Comparing the current market bubble to any previous market bubble is rather pointless." ALL the bubbles were caused by the CB. The article is worth reading but, not entirely accurate.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/thi...ends-the-same/
100 million people lost their jobs and the FED did the only thing it could.

Here is a graph showing the balance sheets of the 6 main CBs, http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...eet-091217.png

They can't keep going and they can't get off the tiger. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the...t-unwind-myth/

"all of which total more than $33 Trillion, the economy grew by just $2.64 Trillion, or a whopping 16.7% since the beginning of 2009. The ROI equates to $12.50 of interventions for every $1 of economic growth.”
Keep in mind that "economic growth" is GDP growth. So, as the finance sector gorges on free money, this is counted as GDP. When FED GOV prints money, this counts as GDP. It is counted a second time when it is spent.
"After adjusting for inflation, wages are just 10% higher in 2017 than they were in 1973, amounting to real annual wage growth of just below 0.2% a year," This is assuming that they accurately picture the inflation rate.
"Since companies ultimately derive their revenue from consumers buying their goods, products, and services," Nope, their revenue is from CBs buying their stock and from buybacks. EXXON borrowed the money to make dividend payments.

"Since Jan 1st of 2009, through the end of June, the stock market has risen by an astounding 130.51%. However, if we measure from the March 9, 2009 lows, the percentage gain explodes to more than 200%. With such a large gain in the financial markets we should see a commensurate indication of economic growth – right?”
The growth was strictly in funny money.
“The Donald’s new tax reform airball promises to make the filing with the IRS more palatable to rank and file America. Yet 101 million taxpayers (69%) have no exposure to the complexity of the IRS code at all. They owe virtually nothing.

And I mean nothing. Among the 148 million income tax filers, the bottom 53 million owed zero taxes in the most recent year (2014), and the bottom half (74 million) paid an aggregate total of just $45 billion."
The article has lots of good charts.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/fed...of-prosperity/

U.S. GOV is trying to encourage you to buy gold, https://www.rt.com/business/411869-u...nership-rules/
It is claimed that States must buy U.S. Treasuries because it is the only market that is deep enough and broad enough to absorb that much investment. They also must have dollar instruments to buy oil. Russia is selling Yuan bonds. Russia also sells a lot of oil. Most States would rather buy oil from Russia and park their money away from Pox Americana.
https://www.rt.com/business/411877-r...-bonds-dollar/
Unlike America, Russia has not reached peak cheap oil, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOqrRxz-5X8

It is a whole new world for rail. The East is betting big time on trains. It makes sense because so many of their cities are inland.
http://russia-insider.com/en/russia-...s-hour/ri21799
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAesOURSDh8
Russia only has one good warm-water port. Rail makes a lot of sense.
12/04 “This market is on the verge of a significant change” – Zero Hedge The CBs still have their fingers in the dike.
12/04 “Today’s central bank vol suppression will end in spectacular fashion” – Zero Hedge Buy more popcorn.
12/04 Market goes all “bitcoin” – Real Investment Advice That is today,,, just wait for tomorrow.

[Danny B]

Evolution speeding up

Two must-read articles to start your morning. They are exclusively on Bitcoin. You may not care what happens to BTC but, the articles are an excellent examination of why and how the State intends to maintain control of finance no matter what. This article starts out with examining the development of the net. At inception, the internet was projected to have no more effect than the FAX machine. Crypto and the blockchain are projected to eliminate banks and severely reduce the tax base that the State relies on.
https://dailyreckoning.com/10-major-...ptocurrencies/

The second article is from Armstrong and talks about what is being done to restrict crypto and dis-allow people from holding wealth outside of bank / GOV control. The article also talks about the GOV control mechanisms that were previously used to keep track of all gold transactions.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...tution-beware/

The CBs created almost unlimited wealth/debt so that the State would always have buyers for it's sovereign debt. Also, this mountain of wealth would drive down interest rates so that GOV could service it's debt very cheaply. As mentioned previously, the State NEVER plans to repay the bondholders,,, just service the interest. NIRP is even better because it creates a "spread" between State debt and, what the banks get. The investors never revolt (bond vigilantes) because the continuous free money keeps them happy. The FED claims to be cutting back on the free money. The BOE apparently is cutting back. The PBOC WANTS to cut back. We'll see how that unfolds.
If the PBOC makes cutbacks, that will affect worldwide liquidity.
ALL of these actions are speeding up.

[Danny B]

More and more bumps in the road

In "Diary of an Economic Hitman", John Perkins stated that the vultures were coming to loot the West. Paul Craig Roberts writes about the "progress" in this looting.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/201...er-capitalism/
"The evidence suggested that for over half of the infrastructure investments in China made in the last three decades, the costs were larger than the benefits they generated, which means the projects destroyed economic value. " Which means that they can never slow down the printing presses.
Chart of the Day: Chinese Fixed Capital Investment is Nearly 90% of GDP - The Sounding Line

America lowered taxes which should attract some business. The Europeans don't like this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...s-tax-cut-plan
You can no longer retire on a paltry $1 million.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/even...h-anymore.html
Peak electrical demand occurred 10 years ago.
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/12/03/us...-does-it-mean/

The IRS just cracked down on bitcoin. Now, the Chinese have done the same.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-die-heres-how
Cryptocoin survival will depend greatly on Quantum computers that can reportedly hack BTC in 4 minutes. It remains to be seen if cyber security can stay ahead of the hackers.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tran...Layer_Security
Regardless of the fortunes of BTC, a lot of big names are joining Ethereum.
https://entethalliance.org/members/

Preserving the EMT has sent jitters to tech stocks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...xit-two-charts
London is a HUGE finance center. The Eurocrats told GB that London banks would not have easy access to continental finance markets. The City has been trying to kill Brexit ever since.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...t-in-jeopardy/
The politicians say that they have no intention of taking the punch bowl away from the voters.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/12/05/...trol-spending/
Dollar General says that things are looking great for them.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/pol...al-ceo-economy

"The drive to create income has led the banks to lend to people with poor credit ratings. They also fear that the banks have lent too much to companies that suffer from the business cycle.

This is the consequence of negative interest rates. The banks lent out money at higher rates to those who have poor credit. As I have warned, every solution sets up the next crisis."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...sis-is-coming/

[Danny B]

Gutting the economy to fund admin

A big part of the battle to hold on to as much of your paycheck as possible is a fight against the bureaucratic machine. Everywhere you look, there are paper-pushers and supervisors by the millions. They walk around with clipboards and stacks of files. They need legions of assistants. They must work around the clock to make sure that efficiency never enters the workplace. Look at medical;
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/sickcare.jpg
The State is hard at work to ensure that millions of paper-pushers have a job. So what if obummercare breaks the bank for the consumer.

The same is true in education. We have had a veritable tsunami in the growth of administration in the school office, https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8w1ph0VoAAFNul.jpg
The teachers teach and the admin rush around creating problems. For this service, they are paid more than the teachers.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-56219465/t...eb/650/650x366
The state is hard at work to ensure that there are jobs for people who no longer have a legitimate job niche. BUT, the funds for this can only come from the productive sector of the economy. So, the state just borrows the money to keep them employed.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017...loans5-17a.png

Here is a great graph that shows why you can no longer afford to go to the doctor.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/US-healthcare4.jpg
Keep in mind that you aren't paying the doctor very much. There are legions of hungry administrators who have their hands out for cash.
The same is true for GOV. They don't actually produce anything of value for the economy so, the state has to increasingly print to fund their increasing numbers.
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/US-debt1-17.png
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...conomy-is.html
A crash in the bond markets will definitely put a lot of bureaucrats out of a job.

[Danny B]

BTC weakness,,, new China

Hundreds of $billions have been funnelled from the FED to the corporatocracy just to create the appearance of a rise in earnings. Corporate profits have only risen by3% with all those $trillions pumped in and all those millions of people laid off.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tec...-this-is-nuts/
The CBs created so much money, they figured that money would rush EVERYWHERE. It rotates from stocks to bonds to RE to commodities, et al.
12/06 The market has a problem: there’s nothing left to rotate into – CNBC
Everything has been grossly inflated. Everything but gold and Bitcoin depend on a consumer to buy and consume them.
Here is an excellent writeup on everything about the nature of BTC. While bitcoin itself may be impregnable, there is one other problem.
12/06 Crypto exchange hacked, $50 million in bitcoin stolen – ZH
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...oesnt-exist-1/
The article is worth reading but, it makes no mention of the fact that BTC is vulnerable when it is converted.

What happens in China spreads all over the world. China, evidently has some kind of plan.
Chinese fixed capital investment is an unheard of 90% of GDP. Chart of the Day: Chinese Fixed Capital Investment is Nearly 90% of GDP - The Sounding Line

While this is interesting, you should read Armstrong's prediction / explanation.
"Concerning China, the reason that they will succeed is because they are turning inward by building their economy into a consumer reservoir and eliminating their dependence upon the West. They will decline at first, but they will recover and make new highs when the West fails."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...pass-the-west/
China was a world power during a few periods of their long history. They yearn for a return to past glories and power. A big part of their economy is built on fraud and bribery. When the PBOC reins in credit creation, there will be a lot of rot exposed.
How "Ghost Collateral" And "Yin-Yang" Property Deals Will Collapse China's Credit Bubble | Zero Hedge
They use the same collateral to get loans at 10 different banks. Any good hiccup in the credit markets will bring it all down.

[Danny B]

Bitcoin; birthing pains OR, death throes,,, oil bust

The article from The Automatic Earth gives a glowing report on bitcoin. https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...oesnt-exist-1/
2/06 Crypto exchange hacked, $50 million in bitcoin stolen – ZH
The hacks aren't going to stop. BTC is touted as an alternative to fiat currency. The owner of that fiat currency has all the badges and guns and isn't happy about alternatives.
"While the Dow Jones Index increased 4,200 points, or 21% since the beginning of 2017, the Bitcoin price has surged more than $9,000, or a staggering 1,125% increase. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price doubled in just the past month."
GOV spooks will continue to hack away at BTC until nobody trusts it.
https://www.rt.com/business/412109-b...e-money-stuck/

There is more important news from the power industry and the carbon industry.
Power generation is falling in America. https://wolfstreet.com/2017/12/03/us...-does-it-mean/
To make matters worse, the grid is failing and carbon energy is in trouble.
"According to this jewel, titled Oil Major: 70% Of Crude Can Be Left In The Ground, by Nick Cunnigham:"
"A lot of fossil fuels will have to stay in the ground, coal obviously … but you will also see oil and gas being left in the ground, that is natural,” Statoil’s CEO Eldar Saetre told Reuters in an interview. “At Statoil we are not pursuing certain types of resources, we are not exploring for heavy oil or investing in oilsands.

If heavy oil and oil sands are to be left unproduced, then a lot of oil will need to stay in the ground. According to the USGS, about 70 percent of the world’s discovered oil reserves are in the form of heavy oil and bitumen."
Last year, Statoil abandoned Canada’s oil sands, selling off its assets to Athabasca Oil Corp. But Statoil is hardly alone in the exodus. ConocoPhillips unloaded a whopping $13.3 billion of oil sands assets to Cenovus Energy earlier this year. Shell sold off $4.1 billion in oil sands assets to Canadian Natural Resources. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil wrote off 3.5 billion barrels of oil sands from its book in February, admitting that they were unviable in today’s market.

ConocoPhillips’ CEO said that it would no longer invest in any oil project that needs a breakeven price of $50 or higher, according to the FT."
"Furthermore, it was quite surprising to see that the ConocoPhillips CEO said they would no longer invest in oil projects with a breakeven above $50. Folks, there aren't many oil discoveries available with a price tag less than $50 a barrel." Peak cheap Americanoil.
"Chesapeake Energy produced the second highest amount of natural gas during the first nine months of 2017 at 2.9 billion cubic feet per day compared to ExxonMobil's 3.1 billion cubic feet per day. So, what benefit did Chesapeake receive for producing the country's second largest amount of natural gas? "
" Unfortunately for Chesapeake, they spent a staggering $1.6 billion (highlighted in blue) on drilling and completion costs (capital) to produce their natural gas and oil. Thus, Chesapeake's Free Cash Flow was a negative $1.3 billion."

Side note, The oil companies burn much of their oil to heat up the heavy crude so that it can be melted and forced out by pump. Energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) is killing them. Actually, they burn gas to melt the oil. There is a new process that looks very good for heating the oil with solar power, Aera Energy and GlassPoint to Build California’s Largest Solar Energy Project at Kern County’s Belridge Oilfield | Business Wire
"the financial wizards at Chesapeake used asset sales to help pay for their natural gas drilling capital expenditures. How long can Chesapeake sell properties to fund their drilling costs??"
"Regrettably, even highly trained energy analysts do not understand that the oil and gas industry is cannibalizing itself just to stay alive."
THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change | Zero Hedge

The paper-gold market has moved to EXTREMES. Maybe somebody knows something.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...er-gold-market

The FED has been pulling their hair out (except Bernanke) and rending their garments because they can't achieve 2% price inflation.
"A new underlying inflation gauge, or UIG, created by the staff of the New York Fed may finally provide the answer."
"The latest reading shows inflation of almost 3 percent for the past 12 months, compared with 1.8 percent for the consumer price index and 1.8 percent for core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy. Since the broad-based UIG is advancing 100 basis points above CPI, it indicates that asset prices are large, persistent and reflect too easy monetary policy."
They claim 3% but, even that is hard to believe.
https://dollarcollapse.com/inflation...-asset-prices/

[Danny B]

Debt-free money,,,oil squeeze

Repost,

While this is interesting, you should read Armstrong's prediction / explanation.
"Concerning China, the reason that they will succeed is because they are turning inward by building their economy into a consumer reservoir and eliminating their dependence upon the West. They will decline at first, but they will recover and make new highs when the West fails."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...pass-the-west/
China was a world power during a few periods of their long history. They yearn for a return to past glories and power. A big part of their economy is built on fraud and bribery. When the PBOC reins in credit creation, there will be a lot of rot exposed.
How "Ghost Collateral" And "Yin-Yang" Property Deals Will Collapse China's Credit Bubble | Zero Hedge

When Armstrong first went to China, he found that the Chinese had printed out every word he had ever spoken about economics. He told them to buy bonds directly from U.S. GOV and bypass the primary dealers. Apparently, they have been taking all his recommendations to the stage of action.
Repost,
"Fixed capital investment is spending on physical assets such as infrastructure, buildings, property, machinery, or technology. While a certain amount of fixed capital investment is unquestionably good for any economy, fixed capital investment in China has reached completely unsustainable levels"
It IS completely unsustainable if it is created with debt money. China reportedly has bazillions in debt and they need to slow down the printing presses. Japan GOV is printing with wild abandon and just absorbing the debt into it's central bank. Suppose that China just does the same thing? Suppose that they just avoid the debt-trap of the central bank?
We are told that we must have a central bank to avoid hyperinflation. Our CB has brought us massive inflation for the bankers and deflation for the workers.
What would happen if WE wanted to abolish the CB and have the Treasury just print what was needed for the productive economy? Well, the bankers would just block this at the highest levels. Suppose that this change was forced on us?

"Governments around the globe borrow every single year with absolutely no intention of ever paying off their national debts. So what is the difference? If you think giving the money back to the people is wrong and it is better going out the back door for political contributions, then sorry, I oppose that.

There is no “conservative” v “liberal” when it comes to the debt. They all spend more than they take in and nobody cares about paying off the debts. So I do not care what political persuasion you are, we will end up at the same place when the dice stop rolling. BROKE!"
support cutting income taxes to ZERO. The government should just create the money it needs to cover its expenses.
"Let’s get real here! All national debts, including Germany, show that on average 70% of the debt is just accumulative interest. So that is money out the back-door.",,,, to the major parasites.
"Rome never had a national debt and the first 500 years they existed by creating money to pay their expenses with minimal inflation because of the economic growth. About 80% of their budget was paid with the creation of new money."

There you have it. Inflate the money supply commensurate with the increase in actual wealth. For much of history, the gold supply grew about 2% per year. The economy also grew at about 2% per year. It was a perfect match. This arrangement DID NOT allow enough inflation of the money supply to make more than a few bankers rich. The massive money supply inflation was necessary (escaping the gold standard) ONLY for bankers and speculators, NOT for the general economy.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...s/trump-taxes/

Under Armstrong's direction, China will slow down to stabilize the economy before it charges ahead once again. This slowdown will wipe out Western asset markets. It looks like middle of next year will be crunch time.
If the East corrals the bankers and prints just the money needed for the PRODUCTIVE loop of the economy, the West can never compete on world markets. The West will have to do the same or continue to sink down.

There is another facet to this. American can ONLY cope with cheap-peak-oil if it can buy oil on international markets. That means that sellers have to accept direct dollar payments OR treasury bonds. We import 4.1 mbd and this will grow as fracking goes bust,,, even more. This will be somewhat offset by the increase in wind $ solar.
Venezuela has the biggest oil reserves in the Americas, in the Orinoco basin. Venezuela is refusing to sell oil to America. They are selling exclusively to China. You can expect this squeeze to continue. The R.O.W. has no interest in doing vendor-financing for the global war-monger. Our $ 1.5 billion a day trade deficit is not going to continue forever. As long as Russia continues to supply cheap oil to the world, America will be locked out of global markets for anything that is energy intensive.
Will America unlock ZPE to survive? who knows?

[Danny B]

QT?,,,new flavor of fascism,,, molten salt reactors

The FED assures us over and over that they have stopped QE and are starting to do quantitative tightening. QT We do not hear even a peep out of the exchange stabilization fund or the Presidents working group on markets.PPT Both of these groups seem to have unlimited funds.
Armstrong shows very clearly that most of the accepted economic rules just don't work.
Zero Hedge has a good article about the mysterious paradox, where QT is creating a reverse effect from what it is supposed to do. Nobody knows if the ESF and PPT are pumping in liquidity or, not

"Edwards writes that "so scared (or is that scarred) were central bankers after the summer 2013 taper tantrum, they have now gone out of their way to reassure financial markets. "
The Taper-tantrum was a financial cardiac arrest caused by the FED talking about tapering off stimulus.
"Several months later, after the third rate hike, Goldman found that once again, paradoxically, financial conditions eased further, and the market rose even more in direct opposition of what Fed rate hikes are supposed to do!"
"Hence a paradox. Even as the Fed has proceeded with its tightening, overall financial conditions have eased. If financial conditions are the main transmission channel for tighter policy, has policy in effect been tightened at all? "
"Today, it was SocGen's grumpy "permarealist" Albert Edwards' turn to focus on this peculiar "paradox" in which the more the Fed tightens, the higher markets rise in the process "poisoning the market.""

"You don?t have to be a genius to reach the conclusion that central banks? dovish tightening really means there has been no tightening of monetary policy at all for Wall Street. But for Main Street, interest rate hikes do have an economic impact that will ultimately end in recession, and like an increasingly stretched elastic band this tension will eventually snap with disastrous financial market consequences. Many clients we meet have similarly apocalyptic views to our own but remain fully invested. They cannot see an immediate trigger for the financial Armageddon that they accept is heading slowly our way."
"And yet, despite central bankers' best intentions to kill the free and efficient market, this time something may be changing, and may soon unleash that "shock" event that is so critical for the market to determine just what the new strike price of the Fed put is as BofA explained: that something is China."

China will go bust when the Chinese want it to go bust. This date will be affected by how much saber-rattling Pox Americana does in the South China sea.
Albert Edwards: "Here's Why The Current Situation Is Even Worse Than The 2008 Crisis" | Zero Hedge

Trump is doing a lot of saber rattling but, not a lot of blowing things up. Kim, the cabbage-patch dictator is furious but, hasn't been goaded into committing suicide. Trump blew up a few planes at a base in Syria after the "gas attack". He did ring them up the day before and tell them that he was coming. How does this affect globalist plans?
Why The Globalists Need A War... And Soon | Zero Hedge

A democracy is ill-fated because everybody votes for support rather than working. But, A democracy is the best system for spreading around the power of the State. Bankers can be counted on to crash they system because they are too focused on profits and get carried away with leverage. The corporatocracy can be counted on to crash the system because they eventually squeeze the consumer to death. Here is a very good article on fascism in it's current manifestation as unlimited corporate power.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/12...led-democracy/
The U.S. nuclear power program was created to produce fissionable bomb-making materials. Electricity production was just a by-product. China is moving ahead with the high-temp reactors that make a LOT more financial sense.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/886eda6...3-billion.html

Armstrong is going to include BTC in his BIG program. GOV wants to control it but, there is a big paradox.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-here-to-stay/
12/08 Consumer credit accelerated in October by largest amount in 11 months – MarketWatch Plastic serves when wages just won't do it.
12/08 Vanguard founder Jack Bogle says U.S. pensions are doomed – Zero Hedge Greek pensions have already been cut 70%.
12/08 ‘Gold price will explode & dollar get wiped out’ – RT Not true. The dollar-bond market will get wiped out.

[Danny B]

BTC because everything else is quiet

"Bitcoin’s incredible security is almost unbelievably mind-boggling.
But Bitcoin’s biggest battle is yet to come.
Governments and banks."
"And if you think central powers can’t do major damage to crypto, think again. They wield the ultimate power:

The violence hack.
That’s power to kill you or put you in jail.
Back in October 2017, former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernake said “eventually governments will take any action necessary to prevent Bitcoin.”
"Proof of Work mining is the biggest choke point of the Bitcoin system. It leads to heavy centralization with specialized chips. "
"By forcing miners to register they can keep track of them and tax them and if necessary seize their mines and take all the coins for themselves. In a time of war, that is exactly what they’ll do, take the mines by sending in men with guns. It’s hard to pick up a few thousand ant-miners and move them somewhere else. And because they pull so much electricity they’re easy to spot."

"Congress is looking to expand its money laundering law to target crypto by making it a crime to hide any wallets or crypto you own with Senate Bill S.1241.

It makes it illegal to conceal a digital wallet and cryptocurrency for any reason and while crossing the border. So just declare it, right? You’re a good, law abiding citizen. You pay your taxes including your crypto taxes. You’ve got nothing to hide."
"Except the border control folks have the right to steal it from you without just cause.

In other words, they can take the money just because they feel like it and they don’t even have to tell you why.
If that sounds like legalized robbery, it’s because that’s exactly what it is.
The ACLU documents thousands of cases of everyday citizens robbed of their life savings. It’s called Civil Asset Forfeiture. "
"The new Senate law creates a nasty dilemma that runs head first into the wall of civil asset forfeiture. If you fail to tell border agents you’re carrying $10,000 or more in crypto you could spend 10 years in jail. If you do tell them, they can take it from you, by holding you indefinitely and demanding your password, even without charging you with a crime."
"the United States crashed out of the top of the Democracy Index that lists full and thriving democracies and smashed down into the “flawed democracies” range."
https://hackernoon.com/bitcoins-final-boss-22e2a52f9c7d

Nobody seems to agree how much money is missing from the Feds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CwpjIwwI9o&t=153s
I'll be AFK for a few days.

[Danny B]

more doom,,, more carbon problems

I have a lot of catching up to do. Where to start?
Saxo Bank has a bunch of predictions,,, pretty strange. https://www.home.saxo/-/media/docume...ctions2018.pdf
Deutsche Bank has predictions;
"Volatility is a consequence of speed and speed is the result of fear. Acceleration of movement is a defensive maneuver, a tool of retreat -- high speed and high volatility represent sophistication of flight (flight to quality is an example of the speed event). However, absence of volatility is not necessarily synonymous with absence of fear. Volatility is low not only when things become predictable, but also if the distribution of risks causes paralysis,"
Deutsche: "We Are Almost At The Point Beyond Which There Will Be No More Bubbles" | Zero Hedge
"spiralling leverage cannot continue indefinitely. At some point, the bubble becomes too big and cannot be subsumed by a bigger bubble – the damage of its burst would become irreparable."

Deutsche Bank and china, Deutsche Bank analysis of China debt and financial crisis probability - Business Insider
12/11 Chinese local governments accused of faking economic data – SCMP
12/11 China’s top leaders throw weight behind push to control debt – Bloomberg
Oil is expected to fall soon, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...apse15951.html
That will gut the budget of the oil producers.
The shale & tar oil industry is losing a lot of money and dragging down the oil majors. They lost $ 20 billion last year. NOW, they have decided that they want to make a profit.
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201...e-russia-opec/
The Petro-Dollar is on it's way out because America no longer exports oil and saudi is fast running out. They are no longer the "swing producer". There may soon be a new petro-currency.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ns-petrodollar
The chosenites haven't given up on stealing the oil in Syria and the Golan. They demand that their 8itch jump in to grab it for them.
https://sputniknews.com/world/201712...x-cia-officer/

Gas;
https://www.rt.com/business/412468-r...g-plant-putin/
Russia and Bahrain plan to take over EU and mid-east gas distribution, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...A-Gas-Hub.html
America wants to supply gas to Europe but, their cost structure is way too high.
The corporatocracy (masquerading as capitalism) is turning more and more as a merchant of death in it's mindless quest for profits.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/capita...itself/5622245
More doom from Wigington, http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-new...onths_12062017

[Danny B]

BTC and more slip-sliding away

12/12 How 15x leverage at Tokyo bitcoin exchange could spread contagion – Forbes
12/12 Bitcoin futures tumble as spot-arbitrage collapses – Zero Hedge
Bitcoin and fairy dust is going to save all of us. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...re-Crisis.html

https://sputniknews.com/military/201...-audit-begins/
AND
https://usawatchdog.com/21-trillion-...-austin-fitts/
It probably won't make any difference in the end, The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun | Zero Hedge

The retirees are taking care of their kids, Here's How Much Retirees Are Spending To Support Their Adult Kids | Zero Hedge
The millennials are selling whatever they can to survive; Virginity, sex, sperm, eggs and blood.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...d-just-survive
12/12 Mexico’s interior security law: the ruling class prepares for mass uprisings – WSWS Mexico has used PEMEX as a piggy-bank to fund social programs. It is going to be problematic to withdraw the punchbowl.
12/12 Deadly cold wave continues to sweep across Europe – France 24
AND
12/07 Worst-case global warming predictions are the most accurate – Independent
12/11 Investors are dumping gold to buy bitcoin, says strategist – CNBC
12/11 Plan your bitcoin exit strategy — with gold – GoldCore
It's all a matter of timing.

[Danny B]

Edging towards the exit,,, slowing economy,,, Kunstler

"Release, we see that in the 3rd quarter, household and nonprofit’s stock holdings jumped to 36.3% of their total financial assets. This is the highest percentage since 2000. "
So, everybody is all-in. Good graphs.
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-c...sis-100717.png
" As noted, if the next correction began in 2018, and ONLY reverts back to the long-term trendline, which historically has never been the case, investors would reset portfolios back to levels not seen since 1997.
Two decades of gains lost.
With everyone crowded into the “ETF Theater,” the “exit” problem should be of serious concern."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-exit-problem/

Armstrong, "
Only a floating exchange rate system ends the fiat. So yes – that means as long as the “paper” dollar floats in value on world markets, it is not actually fiat any more than Bitcoin trading. The term “fiat money” means an arbitrary order or decree declaring the value to be fixed. The dollar was “fiat” when it was arbitrarily established by Roosevelt at $35 to the ounce of gold. Since 1971, the dollar floats and it is no longer fiat because that is the definition of a fixed arbitrary value."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...r-is-not-fiat/

Maersk is warning about falling commerce. Warning From The World's Biggest Shipping Line On Outlook for World Trade | Zero Hedge
This is kind of a stupid warning. Shipping rates crashed long ago because of over-capacity.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/i...baltic%202.png
3 bubbles and, you're out. http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com...youre-out.html
12/12 Why Obamacare is locked in an inescapable death spiral – Zero Hedge Because it tried to rob people who have no money.
News on stocks, https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...y0qN96zRkugEOQ

Kunstler, "here in the USA, where banking hocus-pocus now accounts for about 30 percent of GDP, and most of that activity is either out-and-out fraud or swindling, or collecting rents and dividends on past frauds and swindles."
"If “money” can be said to represent a future claim on work, or energy, or things that they produce, then Bitcoin is not money at all because it only represents energy burned in the computer exertions necessary to “mine” the Bitcoins. In other words, it costs a lot of energy to create Bitcoins, and there’s no claim on future energy, or work — it’s already gone. "
"Anyway, that’s only one interpretation of the Bitcoin rush. In the end, I believe it’s simply telling us that the global financial system is headed for some serious trouble. It is vectoring right smack into the same lane as the gathering political crisis in the US government, as a fight to death between Donald Trump and his adversaries comes darkly into view."
http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/stranger-things/

"You see, the money that the Fed loaned to the US government (in exchange for a bond) was never there in the first place. The Fed prestidigitated it out of an alternate universe. They gave this money to a “primary dealer” bank in exchange for the bond, which the bank abracadabraed up for the US Treasury. Well, not really. In fact, the Fed just made a notation on the bank’s “reserve” account that the money from the alternate universe appeared there. Somehow that money was sent via a virtual pneumatic tube to the US Treasury"

"Their stated goal is to reach an ultimate wind-down velocity of $50 billion a month (cue laugh track). If they ever get there (cue laugh track) it would take 20 years to complete the wind-down. The chance of that happening is about the same as the chance that Janet Yellen will come down your chimney on December 24 with a sack-full of chocolate Bitcoins."
"When a bond matures, the issuer has to send the principal back to the lender. After all, the Fed lent the US Treasury X-billion dollars, the US Treasury paid interest on the loan for X-years, and now it has to fork over the full value of the loan "

"Instead, when the theoretical principal is returned to the Fed, the Fed disappears the money, like the girl in a bikini onstage who enters the magician’s sacred box and vanishes. Now you see her, now you don’t. The explanation, of course, might be that the money was never really there in the first place, so it makes sense to fire it back to the alternative universe it came from."
"And don’t even ask about all those bundles of janky Freddie Mac mortgages fobbed off on the Fed. The reason they did that in the first place was because those mortgages weren’t being paid off, and the banks and insurance companies that held them were choking to death on them. So they parked them in a crawl space under the Fed’s Eccles Building in Washington"
http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/abracadabra/

[Danny B]

BTC,, super AI,,, control of ALL stores of wealth

I have to ask for more reading than normal. But, these subjects are of supreme importance considering that much of the economy is likely to just vanish.
Man is a competitive species and will use whatever advantage he can find. Suppose that he finds a tool that displaces him?
AlphaZero?s ?alien? superhuman-level program masters chess in 24 hours with no domain knowledge | KurzweilAI
Financial entropy, https://medium.com/@alex.stanczyk/a-...n-26e42eeab6b7

The millennials are being led by the nose into socialism. Capitalism is being blamed for the sins of crony capitalism. The rose-colored world of socialism beckons the young. They are going to have a rude awakening when they get there.
https://www.sgtreport.com/articles/2...end-of-freedom
Armstrong and BTC, "To be or not to be lies purely in the hands of the Treasury. Only their rule will define any cryptocurrency and the courts will never do their job constitutionally "
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-or-not-to-be/

"The EU is now developing strict rules for carrying cash when travelling to non-European countries and returning to Europe. The revision of the First Cash Control Regulation from 2005, which stipulated that EU citizens should register cash in excess of € 10,000 when leaving the EU or when returning to the customs authorities have to, is what is under review. They want to lower the number and include gold, gemstones, and cash debit cards.
Interestingly, cryptocurrencies are not to be regarded as cash. Why? They are not sure how to detect them. The EU explanation reads: “Despite the high risk emanating from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, these are not added to the cash. The reason for this is that the customs authorities lack the technical means to discover cryptocurrencies. “
The Treasury wants control of ALL stores of wealth. They admit that they can't "control or detect" BTC. This right there shows that they will eventually need to crack down on all the exchanges to tax the snot out of the gains.

12/13 ‘Buy the dip’ has never been more popular in U.S. stocks – Bloomberg Of course, it is the FED buying every dip to hold back the wolves at the door.
12/13 Bitcoin – millennials “fake gold” – Real Investment Advice
12/13 Peak bitcoin media-mania yet? – Wolf Street
12/13 Why bitcoin is fool’s gold – Week
12/13 Gold & crypto destroy fiat Stewart Thomson – 321Gold
12/10 ‘Gimme shelter’: a tale of cyberwar, bank panic and ATM cash – ATM Marketplace Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.