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  • Danny B
    Labor market in socialism...death by leisure

    Here is a long, detailed article about the history of trying to substitute a planned economy for a market economy. Keep in mind that socialism kills incentive. It removes "reward" for the vast majority of people.
    Simply compare the economies of N.Korea to S.Korea... East Germany to West Germany.
    The Marxist planners try to negate market forces by centrally planning EVERYTHING. They have a new trick up their collective sleeves.
    "We know Lange had still not conceded a basic error in his in old age, as he made a gleeful remark in 1967 about computers soon being able to calculate all those equilibrium equations proposed by Barone rapidly enough that a perfect 5 year plan could finally be produced for the comrades. Good grief! [PT]"
    It is a good article that goes into a lot of detail and explains a lot.
    Ludwig von Mises? Century of Validation |

    Somehow, the article evades a very important point. Marxism desires to create uniform, low prices. It must kill the profit motive. Incentive, the twin brother of profit dies at the same time. The great fatality of the system is; socialism demands a uniform low price for both goods AND labor. Socialism pulls down the talented people to support those people with no particular talent. The talented people see no particular reason to exert themselves. There is no reward.
    The un-talented people see no particular reason to exert themselves because, there is no penalty. Socialism is incompatible with human nature.

    Kunstler has some observations on human nature. The National Blues - KUNSTLER
    As man makes more technical advances, the whole fabric of society further disintegrates.

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  • Danny B
    Emerging cracks in the system

    The FED initiated a credit bubble to save the banks. There was never any recovery in the lower loop so, there was never a recovery in the upper loop. The FED, PPT and ESF had to pump nonstop. They claim otherwise but, the debt-clock and deficit make them liars. As employment, savings and wages continue to fall, the FED must fight all this potential deflation with a commensurate credit inflation. Falling employment, falling retail and falling consumption require even more offsetting actions from the FED. In an effort to stimulate the most watched measure of wealth, the alphabet agencies juice the stock market.

    The index crossed 6,000 and everybody is jubilant. BUT, the FED is doing targeted juicing.
    4/30 Just these five companies account for 28% of the S&P’s 2017 returns – Zero Hedge
    Personal debt is at a new record high and the millennials are really cranking it up. They spend more than other age cohorts on frivolous stuff.

    The private and public credit generators pump out debt/liquidity. When it grows too far and too fast, they get nervous about defaults. They try to cut back on their exposure. (Unless they're Chinese). But, the system really can't tolerate a reduction of credit creation. Like this;

    When commercial credit is reduced, the FED attempts to step in and make up the difference.
    "Another indicator that will surely be a part of our Doom Index is the level of margin debt.
    When an investor buys stocks on margin, he borrows the bulk of the purchase price from his broker.
    Because he only puts up a portion of the total amount – the margin – he stands to gain more if the market goes up. But if the market goes down, he gets a “margin call.”
    "But when they go down, all of a sudden they ask themselves why they ever bought them.
    Squeezed and panicked, the margin buyer is forced to sell. And the higher the margin debt, the greater the number of shares that must be liquidated, sending the whole market down even further.
    Today’s level of margin debt was last seen near the dot-com peak in 1999."
    Margin debt is up close to $600 billion. If that sounds like a lot, consider this, "and when we take a look at, when we start combining things like corporate debt, margin debt and household balance sheet debt right credit card debt you’ve got the highest level of indebtedness ever before in history, we’re over 51 trillion dollars in those three things combined and so if you’ve noticed I’ve excluded governmental debt out of that,"
    A margin call causes forced sales of assets. A BIG margin call can freeze up the markets from too many attempted sales.

    Regional banks are shrinking the credit bubble,

    4/30 Panic bank run hits Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender – Zero Hedge
    The CBs created credit inflation to goose the economy. They ignored wage inflation because they had no power over it.
    4/30 China factory orders tumble – Zero Hedge
    4/29 UK, France GDP weaker than expected: global slowdown? – Mish
    4/29 Puerto Rico takes first steps toward bankruptcy-ish filing – Zero Hedge
    4/29 British economy slows sharply as inflation hits home – Reuters
    4/29 British consumers’ confidence slumps as inflation grows – Guardian
    4/29 Euro zone inflation near 4-year high, adds to pressure on ECB – CNBC

    The CBs mistakenly believed that credit inflation would goose the economy. All this added commerce and productivity would more than compensate for the resulting price inflation.
    The goose has a case of the squirts and price inflation is oozing out everywhere.

    As the defaults rise, credit disappears, Notice that JPM has flogged off dodgey loans to brain-dead investors.
    4/30 California enacts $52 billion fuel tax hike for road, bridge repairs – Raw Story Not a single penny will go for roads and bridges. It will be handed out to people who just don't or can't find jobs.
    Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have all that oil and, now they're broke.
    South Africa was the world’s largest gold producer and, now they're broke.

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  • Danny B
    Tax flow down,,, borrowing up

    The ability of a debtor to pay back a loan is related to how much free cash flow he has. Since "other" and the BLICs are not buying sovereign debt, the FED has to buy it all. The U.S. Treasury sends Treasury bonds to the FED to be monetized. The FED re-sells these securities on the open market. But, if nobody is buying sovereign debt from the Treasury, nobody is going to buy it when the FED tries to sell it on the open market.
    The deficit for March was $186 billion. Where is the Treasury going to get cash flow to keep the party going if the FED stops buying?

    Tax Flow;
    Simplifying the tax code and cutting every American’s taxes will boost consumer spending while encouraging savings and investment.
    We must cut the corporate tax rate and allow the United States to compete internationally.
    Our lower tax rate must also apply to small business, allowing entrepreneurs and freelancers to grow and prosper.
    We must reduce or eliminate the capital gains tax.
    We must pass tax reform legislation in order to ‘Make America Great Again!’

    At what point will the bankers notice that U.S. GOV has a shrinking tax flow?
    FED GOV will be running on fumes by about August. The FED reports that it is holding about $ 4.6 trillion of GOV debt. It is expected to take 15--20 years to unwind all this.
    Fed 'balance sheet': What happens, why it matters, what could go wrong
    GOV wants to increase the snot out of debt at the same time that the FED wants to reduce it's balance sheet.
    The FED has probably pumped in an additional $20---30 trillion but, nobody is talking about that.
    If sovereign debt is going to crash as predicted by Armstrong, something drastic is going to have to happen to destroy confidence. Maybe somebody plans to pull the plug.

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  • Danny B
    Stronger dollar,,,Unstable credit

    As already reported, the VIX is considered the "fear gauge"
    Vix ‘fear gauge’ closes at 3-year low
    "In a paper for the Bank for International Settlements released last month, researchers led by Stefan Avdjiev highlighted how the dollar is a key driver of bank balance sheets, effectively dethroning the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as a benchmark for market fears. The stronger the dollar, the wider the deviations from covered interest parity (CIP), slowing down cross-border bank capital flows in dollars, the analysts noted."
    The problem comes in that capital flight makes the dollar stronger. In 3 years, Chinese debt-to-GDP is expected to reach 520%. The ECB is a dead man walking. This causes more capital flight.

    "I start with a simple definition: “A Bubble is a self-reinforcing but inevitably unsustainable inflation.”
    “Bubble” connotes something that is about to burst. I take a different approach, working to identify initial factors and characteristics that are favorable for Bubble formation - and then monitoring and analysing developments and ramifications. I covered the mortgage finance Bubble from every angle on a weekly basis for over six years, after initially warning of its development in early-2002. It’s now been over eight years analysing the global government finance Bubble – the “Granddaddy of All Bubbles.”

    " And the longer they survive the more dismissive conventional analysts (and the business media) become to Bubble analysis. At the same time, over time as a Bubble gains momentum there becomes overwhelming evidence and analytical support for the Bubble view. "
    "Unsound Finance gets to the heart of the issue. Looking back historically to early economic thought, the recurring issue that perplexed deep thinkers was how an economy that appeared robust could suddenly run so amuck. Economic busts would invariably focus analytical attention to “money,” debt and banking." Ah, but the major component of the "money supply" is debt.

    "While discerned by few, Credit turns progressively less stable over the course of an economic upcycle. Especially during the late-cycle boom phase, there would be a huge divergence between general confidence and the underlying deterioration in the quality of rapidly expanding Credit. "
    Ah yes, confidence
    "My fundamental premise is that we’re in the late-stage of a historic global experiment in unfettered finance. From a historical and analytical perspective, Credit is inherently unstable. Today’s Credit is acutely unstable on a global basis as never before."
    " The bullish view holds that central banks are the solution. They’re undoubtedly the problem."
    Not perfectly accurate. The politicians that control the central banks are the problem.

    "The Dilemma of Unsound Finance prevails just about everywhere – most notably China, Japan, Europe, EM, Canada, the U.S, Australia, etc. There are numerous potential flashpoints – where Unsound Finance has turned acutely vulnerable. While central bankers talk employment and CPI, I believe fear of global financial instability has been the true impetus behind “whatever it takes.”
    At the other end of the tug-of-war are the elites that want to drastically reduce the population.
    " There is ample evidence that huge amounts of finance have exited Europe, Japan, China and EM over recent years to participate in king dollar. "
    "I go down this path because I was asked this week by an astute observer of the world how the bursting of the global Bubble might play out. I contemplate various scenarios and tend to look at this most extraordinary backdrop and think “expect the unexpected.” Nevertheless, I’ll throw out a possible scenario.

    After years of astounding expansion, China’s leading banks occupy the top four spots in the list of the world’s largest banks (by assets). Chinese finance has become hopelessly Unsound, with a Credit Bubble fuelling epic malinvestment, asset Bubbles, fraud and deep financial and economic structural impairment. "

    " A collapsing currency would further impair Chinese borrowers, especially those (banks) exposed to dollar-denominated debt. Chinese officials would see no alternative than to impose strict capital control. The Chinese crisis would spur global “Risk Off” – de-risking, de-leveraging dynamics that I would expect to be particularly problematic for Europe and EM.

    A “Risk Off” spike in European periphery yields and a widening of spreads would be a major issue for the thinly capitalized European banks. And with the European banking organizations having become such major players in derivatives, securities finance and EM, a crisis of confidence in European finance would quickly become a systemic issue globally. " Figure on less than a week.
    "The perception is that U.S. finance is sound and the economy stable. I have serious doubts, believing deeply unsound finance has inflated a U.S. Bubble economy with latent fragilities. "

    " A resulting sharp tightening of financial conditions would expose the degree to which uneconomic enterprises have flourished in the almost nine years of free “money.” Corporate America would have huge exposure to a faltering global economy, with the major financial institutions all caught up in the global crisis of confidence in derivatives and counter-party issues."
    "Eight years of zero rates, ultra-low Treasury yields, record stock prices and booming asset markets have fed the dangerous delusion that deficits don’t matter. The central bank blank checkbook has salivating politicians believing they enjoy a similar luxury. "
    Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Unsound Finance

    Without the "flywheel" of gold, the credit creation machine runs faster and faster. Little bits and pieces start to fly off. It's still a big machine. It's still spitting out "money". It appears OK. It is fatally unstable.
    The politicians create ever-more debt money to raise the standard of living. When debt creation gets too far ahead of wealth creation, the whole system becomes too unstable.

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  • Danny B
    tax growth,,,, ecological overshoot

    Some of the facets of the DotCom crash are starting to reappear, "As If Millions Of Unicorns Suddenly Cried Out In Terror": Cloudera IPOes At Less Than Half Its Last Private Valuation Round | Zero Hedge
    The Chinese plan to make a big entrance to the world stage. If confidence in the dollar is lost, the Chinese will be free to make their big move.
    It isn't going to be that easy.

    "Of course, governments are never capable of reducing their own expenditure. This results going in only one direction – raising taxes"
    "This is why the EU is doomed. There will never be any reform that addresses the people. It is always about raising taxes to maintain government power and to hell with the people. "
    "This system is tearing Europe apart and unemployment in each country will turn to civil unrest and point the finger at Brussels."

    A few billion people in the third world want to raise their standard of living. There are some serious obstacles,
    Ahead of The Herd - Earth Overshoot Day

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  • Danny B
    The trickle down pump is broken.

    We could get rid of most of the stock traders and bankers and , never miss them. The State pumps money into the upper loop to keep them going. If the State pumped money into the lower loop, nobody would work. The State needs to maintain the lower loop and middle class with just enough money to keep them hungry enough to force them to get up and go to work.
    The lower loop must subsist on debt money. The State can't afford to let the middle class go too broke.
    When there is a big natural disaster, the State passes out FEMA money. This money need not be repaid. It offsets the big losses. The lower loop operates on debt money. The State tops-off the economy with debt-free money if the lower loop gets too far behind. This is also true for the upper loop. Much of the TARP money was not repaid.
    The 2% mandated inflation from the FED is supposed to be just the right amount of new money to keep the rentier class going along fine and, at the same time, keep the working class from falling too far behind on wages.
    The trickle-down from the upper loop came to an end with global-wage-arbitrage. Labor's share of GDP continuously falls.

    The 2% inflation of the money supply feeds directly into the upper loop. Bernanke speculated dropping money from helicopters to get the desired inflation effect. Nothing is coming down from the upper loop,,, other than price inflation. The CB won't acknowledge that the transmission mechanism no longer works. The State and the CB keep trying to force-feed liquidity into the system.
    Globalization crashed the labor market. GOV is pumping in $trillions to hold off the crash of the asset markets. The FED is trying to top-off the economy with debt-free money to preserve our previous standard of living. The only trickle down is through the safety net. More and more entities go bankrupt.
    The sure cure is to raise the debt limit and pump in ever-more money.

    Armstrong, "The difference this time is the fiscal budget. Back in 2007, the Fed only had to worry about its policy and the contracting economy. The problem they created is that government just keeps going like the Energizer Pink Bunny – it never stops spending regardless of the level of interest rates."
    "The Fed cannot neutralize the Fiscal spending of government. This is deeply entrenched."
    The FED lied about the BLICs and "others" buying Treasury debt. They are playing the confidence game.
    Here is a chart of debt to GDP. Keep in mind that the debt is counted as a positive segment of the GDP.
    Here is debt to revenue,
    FED GOV must work overtime to maintain confidence. The continuous and upcoming budget battles won't help at all.

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  • Danny B
    Venezuela, gold and unworkable plans

    4/27 Energy revolutions: shale crushes solar – Real Clear Energy Remember, rock, paper, scissors? Cheap oil crushes the banking system. 4/27 Oil price falls below $49/bbl – CNBC
    4/27 Venezuela to give firearms to loyalists fighting resistance – Zero Hedge The "resistance" is simply people who have nothing to eat. GOV let oil push out agriculture and now, they are screwed,
    Sadly, the lefties always seem to screw the pooch;

    The State hates any store-of-value that the State does not control. They have spent decades trying to drive down the price of gold.
    "Back in 2008, the Cartel thought they “won” when paper gold prices plunged from a then all-time high of $975/oz in July to $775/oz in early December; and paper silver, from $19/oz to $9/oz. However, what they didn’t anticipate was the run on physical metal that ensued, selling all global suppliers out; and subsequently, causing physical premiums over the fraudulent paper prices to surge to roughly 30% for gold, and nearly 100% for silver.

    In other words, physical gold barely declined, and physical silver, for all intents and purposes, not at all. Better yet, by February 2009 – a month before the Dow’s bear market low – paper gold was back at $975; and paper silver, $14/oz; en route to both hitting new all-time highs two years later. In other words, the government’s attempt to push prices down not only failed miserably, but caused an historic physical “bank run.”

    4/26 Trump to propose large increase in tax deductions Americans can claim – WaPo
    45 percent of Americans pay no federal income tax | New York Post
    4/27 Trump’s corporate tax rewrite faces major obstacle: its cost – Bloomberg
    Credit card debt climbed way over a $trillion even though wages were falling, 4/27 Surprise surge in card defaults sinks Capital One, Discover – Bloomberg
    4/27 Have we just reached peak stock market absurdity? – Economic Collapse
    The middle class is M.I.A when it comes to sending savings up to the upper loop to be leveraged, invested and massaged. Same for the oil industry. The FED has stepped in and pumped up assets of every type. They can raise asset prices but, they can't do much for earnings.

    The FED is trying to make up for all the earnings that Americans are not producing. They are going to be quite busy trying to maintain the value of all the markets AND, trying to maintain the standard of living for many millions of Americans.

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  • Danny B
    The State prints the difference to stave off deflation

    The runaway corporatocracy impoverished Americans to the point that the State had to take over supporting them. 51% of Americans receive a check from GOV. 45 million are on food stamps. Close to 100 million are unemployed. Many millions work for GOV in make-work jobs. The 100 million missing from employment rolls are also missing from wages and money circulation. This is a huge deflationary pressure. U.S. GOV is printing more every day to hold this deflation at bay. The asset values of the upper loop are at risk if the lower loop has no money.

    ZIRP is hugely deflationary because it wipes out interest earnings to all the savers and funds. It allows the banks to continue to earn spread but this concentrates the last bit of earning power right at the top. As the banks squeeze out the last drops of profitability, the State must make up the difference. As aggregate national earnings go down, the debt ceiling must be raised. Congress must raise the debt ceiling to protect the value of the assets of the upper loop.

    The gold bugs have their own focus BUT, they also are good at pointing out flaws in the system. Here is Miles Franklin with tons of good info.

    Good article where David Stockman tries to give an approximate date of the approaching problem.
    " In a word, the rubber will meet the road sometime during the heat of mid-summer—depending on how many short-term accounting tricks the Treasury still has in its back pocket. "
    Sticking to the Basics - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

    Here are a few good, short articles including #2 on risk parity funds. They don't look good.
    Last edited by Danny B; 04-27-2017, 11:14 PM. Reason: spelling

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  • Danny B
    Web of control,,,, faux capitalism

    Currency inflation has been used continuously to steal the value of the wages of the working man.
    "AS PROTESTS against financial power sweep the world this week, science may have confirmed the protesters’ worst fears. An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy."
    " But the study, by a trio of complex systems theorists at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, is the first to go beyond ideology to empirically identify such a network of power."

    "From Orbis 2007, a database listing 37 million companies and investors worldwide, they pulled out all 43,060 TNCs and the share ownerships linking them. Then they constructed a model of which companies controlled others through shareholding networks, coupled with each company’s operating revenues, to map the structure of economic power.

    The work, to be published in PLoS One, revealed a core of 1318 companies with interlocking ownerships (see image). Each of the 1318 had ties to two or more other companies, and on average they were connected to 20. What’s more, although they represented 20 per cent of global operating revenues, the 1318 appeared to collectively own through their shares the majority of the world’s large blue chip and manufacturing firms – the “real” economy – representing a further 60 per cent of global revenues.

    When the team further untangled the web of ownership, it found much of it tracked back to a “super-entity” of 147 even more tightly knit companies – all of their ownership was held by other members of the super-entity – that controlled 40 per cent of the total wealth in the network. “In effect, less than 1 per cent of the companies were able to control 40 per cent of the entire network,” says Glattfelder. Most were financial institutions. The top 20 included Barclays Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and The Goldman Sachs Group."[B]

    The printing from the CBs constantly inflated the wealth of the upper loop,, primarily, the banks,. With this amount of wealth, regulatory capture is an obvious strategy. Crony-capitalism became the perfect business model. BUT, crony capitalism gave free-market capitalism a bad name. Now, capitalism is under fire for the sins of State operated capitalism.
    The Looting Machine Called Capitalism -
    There is speculation that capitalism is to be demonized to allow socialism to flourish.
    This is causing great divisions everywhere,
    Reportedly, America is the last bastion of capitalism and the Marxists need to destroy it.

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  • Danny B
    Saudi following Venezuela

    4/26 Trump ‘to order corporate tax rate to be cut to 15%’ – Telegraph Raise your hand if you think the corporations will raise wages.
    "Aug 2, 2016 - JEDDAH: A majority of Saudis, 64 percent to be precise, prefer to work in the government sector"
    "Saudi civil servants work 1 hour a day, we’re headed for bankruptcy in 3-4 years’ – ministers "
    So, Saudi Arabia is headed for bankruptcy. The solution; sell off the family jewels. BUT, the Saudi jewels are seriously encumbered to pay all those GOV "workers". "The Saudi government last month said it is reducing Aramco’s tax rate to 50% from 85%,"
    A $500 Billion "Hitch" Emerges In The Saudi Aramco IPO | Zero Hedge
    The Saudi GOV is reducing taxes to make a buyout of ARAMCO look more attractive. Oil sales are down,,, taxes will go down. Benefits are STICKY, PressTV-Saudi Arabia restores perks amid fears of unrest
    At some point, they are going to follow Venezuela when they can no longer afford freebies for everyone.

    I wrote about Humpty Dumpty climbing on an even higher wall but, I forgot the link, Of Two Minds - Housing's Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak
    We get 3.3 million barrels of oil per day from Canada. Trump is starting to take protectionist measures that are getting them riled up. Alberta Warns Trump Of Retaliation If Energy Sanctions Begin | Zero Hedge

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  • Danny B

    The rise of the corporatocracy should be no surprise. Immortality and legal immunity are Great building blocks. The capital accumulation flows naturally towards regulatory capture. At one time, corporations paid 30% of the support to GOV. Since they got the reigns of power, they have reduced this to about 3%. They found it far more cost-effective to pay the politicians directly rather than to pay taxes.
    Corporations' aggregation of wealth, political influence and legal protections has far surpassed those available to citizens. Corporations have usurped citizens' contract with their elected representatives so that government primarily serve corporate interests rather than those of citizens.

    This is a debate page with all the pros and cons. It is very informative,
    Corporations are a threat to Democracy and society. - DebateWise
    The rise and fall of corporate social responsibility

    Purloined comment;
    "Why is everybody so afraid to admit that almost all the world’s economic and political problems revolve around the hegemony here in America of the global corporate cartel, which is only headquartered in the US because this is where their military arm resides. The only way to regain our (we People) sovereignty as a republic is to strictly curtail the privileges of any corporation doing business here. The government must be reconfigured to represent the Middle Class if we are ever to restore sanity, much less prosperity. There will be no peace and prosperity in America until we, the good folk, drain the "swamp" created by the US Constitution. The "swamp" can't be drained at this point because the Constitution does not contain a “drain plug". This is the kind of "plug" it needs. And it needs to be pulled ASAP:

    28th Amendment
    Corporations are not persons in any sense of the word and shall be granted only those rights and privileges that Congress deems necessary for the well-being of the People. Congress shall provide legislation defining the terms and conditions of corporate charters according to their purpose; which shall include, but are not limited to:

    1, prohibitions against any corporation;

    a, owning another corporation,

    b, becoming economically indispensable or monopolistic, or

    c, otherwise distorting the general economy;

    2, prohibitions against any form of interference in the affairs of;

    a, government,

    b, education, or

    c, news media, and

    3, provisions for;

    a, the auditing of standardized, current, and transparent account books, and

    b, the establishment of a state and municipal-owned banking system

    c, civil and criminal penalties to be suffered by corporate executives for violation of the terms of a corporate charter.

    The biggest hurdle to convening an Article 5 convention will be to silence the 24/7 corporate media propaganda machine which will “guarantee” that a constitutional convention is the sure path to anarchy and chaos. There are so many issues that need addressing that it will be extremely difficult to focus on just one issue: draining the swamp; first and foremost.
    Just that one thing: get the idea of incorporating business enterprises (or political movements) out of our collective thought process. Incorporation is a subtle, inconspicuous little glitch in our collective philosophical evolution and, as appealing as it is to join groups and let them do your thinking, such groups immediately assume identities of their own and become eternal super-groups with their own agenda and more money than the sum of all members’ total investment.
    Corporations can’t even be controlled by their own executives; they’re “fictitious persons”, legally, morally, and tangibly. Yes, corporations are comprised of good, church-going, honest, people, while the corporations they belong to, work for, administer, or own, go about the planet (and at home) committing genocide, or worse. You can spend a lifetime fighting legal injustice, global warming, illegal immigration, racial disparity, Democrats, Republicans, Joos, globalization, and bathroom assignments, but nothing is going to change so long as corporate media has your brain in a bottle.

    If nothing else or until a better organizational plan comes along; try whispering in your neighbor’s ear: “Article 5 Amendment 28. Article 5 Amendment 28. Article 5 Amendment 28” until we all understand what’s necessary and act in unison when opportunity presents…."

    By it's very nature, a corporation is anti-nature,, anti-man.

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  • Danny B
    falling population=print more money,,nude loans,,socialist bust

    There is quite a bit going on.
    This graph is central to the latest article from Economica. YIKES,it had a 500 line url. Yes, I know about tinyurl.
    "QE maintained the period of extremely high oil prices, and oil prices collapsed immediately upon the completion of the taper."
    "So, the Fed's efforts to create inflation instead created over leveraged, oversupply, and further deflationary declines in oil that only continue." "Seemingly, US oil production has zero to do with price or consumption. "
    It's all about saving the profits of oil companies.

    The writer covers the fluctuations in oil price very well. Oil only rose with stimulus.
    "Lastly, why growth is breaking down is so simple. The chart below shows the stalling employment among the US 25-54yr/old population, the concurrent stall in total energy consumption"
    "Breakdown of US energy consumption growth by period. US Energy consumption growth has ceased following the absence of US core population and core employment growth"
    Japan has shown us the way. A Falling population of consumers results in falling consumption. They strangle us to grow their profits,,, and then, wonder why our lack of reproduction causes a fall in profits.

    Here is a big dose of DOOM, Elites Are Orchestrating A Global Catastrophe: "There Are Many Things The President Does Not Know" | Zero Hedge
    Here is a comprehensive article on Technofeudalism, An Introduction to Technofeudalism Ascending The corporatocracy may be pushing towards neofeudalism but, that would just lower the birth rate and consumption even further. The salaryman of Japan is the perfect example. He has no time or energy for anything outside the job.

    "Central Banks Are Now Printing $200 Billion Per Month... Without a Crisis"
    Central Banks Are Now Printing $200 Billion Per Month... Without a Crisis | Zero Hedge in the lower loop
    Rest assured, it will hit the upper loop before too long. The CBs are printing money to save the upper loop, not really noticing that the productive loop is dropping dead all around them.

    4/25 The oil market has one big problem: People aren’t buying enough gas – CNBC blame it on Musk.
    4/25 China markets reel as $1.7 trillion in shadow funds unwinds – Bloomberg Only $ 20 trillion to go.
    4/25 EURUSD spikes above 1.09 after Reuters telegraphs ECB hawkish turn – Zero Hedge The Euro is on it's deathbed and it spikes up. No wonder the investors get cleaned out on a regular basis.
    Housing bubble 2 is bigger than housing bubble 1.
    Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. After Bernanke & friends put him back together again,,, Humpty Dumpty climbed upo on a higher wall.

    Too weird to pass up, "Interest on the "nude loans" reached an astonishing 30 percent a week, according to the Global Times newspaper."
    Armstrong, "ANSWER: The economics of the situation is what rules. That is why Communism failed. But keep in mind that this is the civil unrest. Socialism will not simply die and move into the light. It will rage, kick, scream, and try to take down everyone in the process."
    "The system is collapsing and all the taxes and fines the dream up in their minds cannot save the system. It will go bust. That is the end of Socialism the same as it was the end for Communism. Both are against human nature."
    Do you know that when Ayn Rand published that book, she received the worst reviews ever. The press was socialistic agreeing with FDR. Despite having the press trying to prevent people from reading it fearing the book would be against their socialistic philosophy, Atlas Shrugged has been ranked as #2 in the most influential books just behind the Bible ever written.

    Here is the survey’s list of the most influential books:

    1. The Bible.

    2. “Atlas Shrugged,” by Ayn Rand.

    3. “The Road Less Traveled,” by M. Scott Peck.

    4. “To Kill a Mockingbird,” by Harper Lee.

    5. “The Lord of the Rings,” by J. R. R. Tolkien."

    Man is competitive. It is ingrained in his nature. That is why we constantly have competitions. Socialism exalts the mediocre. Survival-of-the-fittest originally selected for physical traits. As time went by, mental superiority became more important. As society and commerce become ever-more technical, those who don't have a niche cry ever-louder that they are being discriminated against. They place ever-larger financial burdens on the State. The State is soon to go bust. What about all those persons who came into this world AND survived solely on State support. What are they going to do when State support evaporates?

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  • Danny B
    The casino stock market,,,, growth of public debt

    Here is a good, detailed examination of the problems with public pensions. if you are counting on one, it might be a good idea to read this. I'll just do one excerpt.
    "It’s a little- known but startling fact: The average buy - and -hold stock market investor spends 74% of his or her time recovering from cyclical downturns in the market (from 1900–May 2015).(Ned Davis Research)"
    How is it possible that investors spend three quarters of their time just getting
    back to the starting line? "
    It is possible because he gets reamed on a regular basis.
    This is also true to a great extent for institutional investors,,, like your pension fund. They keep going back to the casino. They are soon to get smacked down again.

    "For starters, the government's fiscal deficit for the month of March came in at $176.2 billion, which means the deficit 6 months into fiscal 2017 is $526.9 billion and running 15% over last year. If not for the calendar timing of receipts and payments, our government's deficit would be a year-to-date $564.0 billion or 23% above last year. In addition, there was an 18% decline in corporate income tax collection. "
    "More proof of recession and deflation came from the economic data released on Good Friday: CPI down 0.3% in March and even the core rate fell 0.1%, Retail sales fell 0.2% in March and February sales were revised sharply lower to minus 0.3%, from previously reported up 0.1%

    Housing starts, Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production have all recently disappointed estimates. Housing starts fell a very steep 6.8 percent to a 1.215 million annualized rate. Empire State Manufacturing dropped from 16.4 in March, to just 5.2 in April and within Industrial Production, the manufacturing component shrank to minus 0.4 percent. "
    The article is anti-Trump. Just the same, Trump sees the same numbers that we see. government's deficit would be a year-to-date $564.0 billion or 23% above last year

    Trump really has no options. I posted a comment frommarijuana Party in 3 parts that seems to show that the finance sector will eventually burn down the whole house to save themselves.
    John Tainter wrote, The Collapse of Complex Societies. Like a game of Jenga, you can only pull out just so many elements of support before it all comes crashing down. Trump's actions will be dictated more by survival than by desire.
    If the deficit is growing by 23% and rising, just how much risk can he take with the budget and shutdown?

    4/25 Nasdaq tops 6.000 for first time ever, Dow and S&P 500 at records – CNN Money
    4/25 Retailers are going bankrupt at a record pace – Bloomberg

    This is the dichotomy between the upper loop and the lower loop. The end result of cannibalization.
    The Trump team is undoubtedly aware of Armstrong's prediction of a crash of sovereign debt. At 23% growth, there is not a lot of time left.

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  • Danny B
    Rapid risk transmission

    That post on France was supposed to be in another thread. Dunno
    Debt is growing faster than exponentially so, no telling when and why it will collapse. It has required larger and larger stimuli to resuscitate the failing economy every time it falters.

    " Chinese billionaire Jack Ma has warned people should prepare for decades of social upheaval and pain as the internet disrupts the global economy.

    “In the next 30 years, the world’s pain will be much greater than its happiness,” Ma said at an entrepreneurial conference in Zhengzhou, China. “Social conflicts over the next 30 years will hugely impact every industry.”
    “Machines should only do what humans cannot,” Ma said, adding “only in this way can we have the opportunities to keep machines as working partners with humans, rather than as replacements.”

    The State can pass out lots of perks but, the feces hit the fan if they take them away.
    PressTV-Saudi Arabia restores perks amid fears of unrest
    The Saudis are burning through currency reserves. The House of Saud is universally beloved as long as the money flows.

    Gov most assuredly wants to grow bigger. All it needs for this is, MORE TAXES. VAT Tax Ends the Consumer Economy
    Apparently, Greece is to be driven into total destruction,

    "Since 2007, China has added $24 trillion in debt across its entire economy. The IMF believes China's banking system has developed "a structure potentially susceptible to rapid risk transmission and destabilizing liquidity events."

    U.S. FED GOV has a very short time to build the wall,,, Cut taxes,,,, repeal obummercare,,,pass a budget deal. At the moment it is transfixed with the problem in North Korea.
    The White House has been busy on many fronts, Trump Administration Begins Quiet Preparations For Government Shutdown | Zero Hedge

    The cabbage patch dictator is so impressed with his own BS that, he thinks the world is impressed with his BS.
    If you remember correctly, Russia has a jamming system that can shut down anything. Kim made a BIG mistake when he pissed off China.

    Our latest milestones,

    4/24 Hollande urges French to reject Le Pen in presidential runoff vote – Reuters Hollande's popularity is lower than a snake's belly in a wagon rut. Le Pen should be happy.
    4/24 Venezuela near revolution as currency crashes to record low – Zero Hedge NO political change will release them from poverty. Only death can do that.
    4/24 Double data disappointment` follows worst macro week in years – Zero Hedge Ah yes,,, the hard data and the soft data are starting to converge.
    A vid from a former illuminati bankers who refused to participate in child sacrifice and was phased out. He says that the Luciferians are anti-life. If we get lucky,,, they will all kill themselves.
    Here is a brief guide from The American Association of Evangelicals
    Last edited by Danny B; 04-26-2017, 01:43 AM. Reason: spelling,,,, misteak

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  • Danny B
    Headlines from France

    Rothschild Banker Macron To Be
    France's Youngest President

    Euro Elites Flock To Praise Macron

    Macron Expected To Win Run-Off With 60% - Poll

    Thousands Of French Were Unable To Vote On Sunday

    Marine Triggers A Political Earthquake

    Macron also said that mass immigration is unstoppable.
    This is true if feces-for-brains politicians like him are in control.
    The guy doesn't really seem intent on winning the election.
    “There is not a French culture”: Macron attracts the wrath of the right"
    "Macron regrets the “humiliation” suffered by opponents to gay marriage "

    I spent a little time in France. I even studied French while travelling in Eastern Canada. I can assure that France does indeed have a culture.

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