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  • Danny B
    Cross-border liquidity,,, confidence,,oil to stay crashed

    The animal-spirits are firmly locked into an oblivious normalcy bias. No matter how extreme conditions become, it is the new normal. The indexes can go screaming up above their historical norms,,,, but, that's OK. Nothing can spook the investors because the FED has their back. They know that the ECB can't stop inflating or,,, the third largest bond market in the world (Italy) will blow within hours. They depend on cross-border liquidity and they believe that China will never cut back.
    China is going to look out for China.

    I'm writing more about psychology and confidence than about economic factors. The economic factors will decide the day in the end. The FED was trying to "juice" the markets until the economy recovered. A very stupid idea; trying to rescue the lower loop by inflating the upper loop. The graph on velocity is very clear. Nobody is investing in capacity expansion or higher wages.
    The FED NEVER intended to print debt-free money BUT, if nobody can pay them back, that is what they get.

    "We are facing a major cycle inversion beyond what most people have any concept of how markets trade because all they look at is 1929. Here we can see that the Roaring Bull Market of the 1920s lasted only 97 months. From March of 2009, this present bull market reached 97 months in April."
    "This time, retain participation is still near the historic lows since 2007. After 97 months, you expect the bulk of people to be bullish, yet they are bearish. This is more than just a curiosity."
    Others do not agree with this claim.?

    "This has been the MOST HATED BULL MARKET in history. What is fascinating is how long this current bull market has been in play yet all we hear is how it is going to collapse like 1929 and fall to dust on the floor. I have been asked for interviews because they have been unable to find someone bullish.

    We are facing a major cycle inversion beyond what most people have any concept of how markets trade because all they look at is 1929. Here we can see that the Roaring Bull Market of the 1920s lasted only 97 months. From March of 2009, this present bull market reached 97 months in April. This was the time for a pause and we got it. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ soared to new highs when the Dow did not. Yet in 1929 shoeshine boys were trading the market. This time, retain participation is still near the historic lows since 2007. After 97 months, you expect the bulk of people to be bullish, yet they are bearish. This is more than just a curiosity.

    We are looking at a future that is astonishing. With the Dow now breaking out to new highs, we are preparing for the cycle inversion and a Phase Transition. We will be issuing a special report in a few weeks covering what will lead to the greatest trading trap of all time.
    So buckle up. Get ready for the time of your life. Such opportunities come once in a few generations, not even in a single lifetime."
    His accuracy has been astonishing. BUT, he has mentioned that if things go past a certain point, it will be a Mad Max free-for-all.

    Armstrong's program, Socrates gets all the RSS feeds so, it gets current news. Just the same, I don't believe that Armstrong gives proper weight to birth-control and automation.

    So, the whole world depends on cross-border flows of liquidity. Evidently, China pulled the plug.
    Weekly commentary: peak stimulus has passed – Credit Bubble Bulletin
    6/20 China yield curve slumps to record inversion despite liquidity injection – Zero Hedge
    6/20 El-Erian warns “the Fed no longer has your back” – Zero Hedge

    Maintaining the bubble gets harder every day.

    "The Fed drives bond prices up by purchasing bonds, and the Fed raises interest rates by selling bonds, or by purchasing fewer of them than previously.

    I told RT that a real increase in interest rates would undercut the Fed’s policy of rescuing the balance sheets of the big banks whose balance sheets were loaded up with bad debt that desperately needed a rise in debt prices for the banks to remain solvent. "
    "RT did not understand that real interest rates had not increased. Indeed, two days after the “rate increase” the nominal interest rate had not changed. It was still 18 basis points. "
    " By the time the Fed raised the nominal rate, the real rate was already more negative. Thus, there was no rise in real interest rates."
    "Despite this publicized “rise” of the Fed funds rate, the 10-year interest rate on Treasuries “has declined 30 basis points this year. Thus for certain borrowers, the Fed has effectively lowered the cost of borrowing.”
    "Why is the Fed raising short rates when the long rates are falling?

    Why do “democratic Western democracies” have central banks that do nothing except protect big banks at the expense of the people?"
    Democracy Is A Front For Central Bank Rule -
    This is about the inversion of the yield curve,,, no matter what the FED claims about raising rates,

    The credit impulse, Why The (Collapsing) Global Credit Impulse Is All That Matters: Citi Explains | Zero Hedge
    OPEC has suddenly come to the conclusion that their customers just aren't buying enough oil,
    6/20 Oil tanker storage hits a 2017 record despite OPEC’s cuts – Bloomberg
    6/20 Oil slips to seven-month low on signs global glut will persist – Bloomberg

    Saudi Arabia needs about $105 a Bbl. to keep their social programs going. It's under $50.

    "The net effect of all this sound and fury is a government so paralyzed that it can’t even pass bad legislation or execute its existing (excessive) duties. That might theoretically be a good thing, except what we’re seeing are individual departments just veering off on their own, especially the military, which now operates without any civilian control. Apparently General Mattis, the Secretary of Defense, pretty much decided on his own to dispatch another 8,000 US troops to Afghanistan to move things along there in the war’s 16th year."
    "With the US military gone rogue in foreign lands, and the intelligence community off-the-reservation at home, and the Trump White House all gummed up in the tarbaby of RussiaGate, and the House and Senate lost in the shuffle, you also have to wonder what anybody is going to do about the imminent technical bankruptcy of the USA as the Treasury Department spends down its dwindling fund of remaining cash money to pay ongoing expenses "

    "That well is going dry in the middle of the summer, and without any resolution to the debt ceiling debate, the country will not be able to borrow more to pretend that it’s solvent.

    I don’t see any indication that the House and Senate will be able to bluster their way through this. Instead, the situation will compel extraordinary new acts of financial fraud via the central banks and its cadre of Too-Big-To-Fail associates. In the event, the likely outcome will be a spectacular fall in the value of the US dollar, and perhaps consecutively, the collapse of the equity and real estate markets.

    The public may not give a $hit about Syria, Afghanistan, or federal dairy supports, but they’ll sure perk up and notice that their money is going worthless."****-nation/7816/

    Suppose that the FED GOV does shut down in default mode. How are the people going to react?

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  • Danny B
    All markets are going to go up forever

    "The implausible, the absurd, and the extraordinary can quickly become the norm. Assumingly, this coping mechanism enables us to retain our sanity when events are far from normal."
    "The seemingly unabated march upwards in stock prices occurring over the last eight years has had a mind-numbing effect on investors. "
    "Investors, actually the entire population, have become mesmerized by the system as altered and put forth by the central bankers. We have somehow become accustomed to believe that debt-enabling low interest rates make even more debt acceptable. Ever higher valuations of assets are justifiable on the false premise of a manufactured and artificial economic construct."

    "The more extended the advance, and the higher valuations become, the more stable and promising the investment can appear to be, when judged through the rear-view mirror. That extrapolation was at the root of the tech bubble that ended in 2000, and the mortgage bubble that ended in 2007. It is also at the root of the very mature bubble that has again been established today."
    "Muscle memory has taken over and investors do not show the slightest concern for risk. Per Hussman, “investors are accepting this current bull market with increasing dedication.”
    "It is difficult to maintain convictions that run counter to most investors and the tape. Animal spirits and the siren song of faulty popular logic effectively draw investors in as events pass “largely outside the scope of conscious choice”. Yet, rationality will prevail as it always has throughout human history "
    The Fog Of Markets | Zero Hedge

    The FED and various CBs have pumped in many $trillions. The upper loop continues to roll the money into investments. NOBODY will spend the money so, everything just slides down. The velocity of money is on a ski slope.
    The crashing velocity negates much of the effect of the runaway currency inflation. It can hardly be called inflation if the CBs create boatloads of new debt.

    6/19 Crazy money printing by CBs far from over – Financial Tribune Makes no difference.
    6/19 The eternal plea for inflation – Daily Reckoning Upper loop ONLY.
    6/19 Liquidity is the liquid of life for the rally – CNBC It sounds better to call it liquidity rather than unpayable debt
    6/19 Dow opens at record high as tech stocks bounce – CNBC Do NOT worry. This will go on forever.

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  • Danny B

    Economists DELUDE themselves in claiming that economics is a science. They often refer to "animal spirits" that motivate and modify markets. Is there a sub-discipline of "animal spirits" that seem to be so important to markets?
    The economic wonks have reams of paper dedicated to their pet theories and majestic projections. Do they factor in generational cycles? Not a chance. Do they look at prevailing psychology? Not a chance. Their theories posit a MAN who is representative of all men in the population. This MAN has certain habits and preferences. He is the UNIVERSAL MAN pencilled in to all their projections.

    Stocks are in nose-bleed territory and employment is in "crying" territory. The wonks assure us that everything is fine. The muppets have a psychological NEED to believe this BS. It saves them the responsibility of having to face reality.

    "Disavowing knowledge or responsibility, passing the buck and then changing the subject is the time tested way to live in blissful ignorance. Or as I have grown fond of saying, unconscious incompetence with a heaping side order of willful ignorance. "
    "These days over 60% of actual ‘trading’, meaning buying and selling of stocks, bonds and derivatives, is executed by (thinking) machines aka computers."
    "Once the AI computer is turned on and the software begins to ‘learn’, no one knows exactly what it is doing or why. And the longer it learns, the more it can and will deviate from its own original programming."
    "The easiest way for the machines to make money is to push the market up. But when the tide turns, and it always eventually turns, the machines will shift to making money on the way down with the same speed and zeal they apply to the ‘up’ market.

    Only ‘down’ markets tend to breed panic in the humans. When selling really ramps up, market conditions move very rapidly and markets can drop many percentage points in seconds, especially when you have machines making tens of thousands of trades a second and you have thousands of machines all doing this at the same time."
    "IF all these (and more) detrimental socioeconomic conditions weren’t present, then MAYBE SkyNet becoming sentient MIGHT be a recoverable event."

    "One final thought. The financial crash in 2000-2001 was a loss of confidence in individual companies and/or a sector of companies. That market crash is most remembered as the tech wreck, where technology companies got way over their skies and needed to be rescued or allowed to fail. The banks did the heavy work in bringing the confidence game back from the grave.

    But in 2008-2009, the banks themselves got in way over their heads. And this time the Federal Reserve and the US Government, along with every other major global central bank and government, came to the rescue, bailing OUT the too-big-to-fail banks at the expense of the taxpayer. This abomination was later extended to savage the savers with interest rates pegged at near zero in order to guarantee the banks a solid profit.

    After all, the bank executives, traders and upper level management must be fairly compensated for all the financial death and destruction they have wrought."
    "When the next financial crisis hits, it will be the central banks and governments who will suffer a crisis of confidence. Because this time it will be a currency crisis once everyone realizes the money is backed by nothing more than thin air. And they’ve been printing a LOT of thin air over the last ten years.

    So exactly who will come to the rescue of the various global governments? Yup, you and me, that’s who. And we won’t be given any choice in the matter. Suddenly the rapid expansion of the police state makes more sense when seen from this perspective."
    "Our money will be confiscated and swapped for bank equity, government bonds or some new type of fake fiat in order to protect us from the disaster they created."
    Aside; 6/19 Governments will smash cryptos whenever they want, von Greyerz tells KWN – GATA

    "All confidence games are pretty solid right up until confidence is lost. When that happens, the rush of escaping air reaches hurricane force in an instant and all exit doors suddenly slam shut. We peons will be the last to know when the jig is up; therefore there will be no exit for us.

    The markets will be shut, the banks closed and all trading ceased before the public is told there is a serious problem. Usually this occurs over the weekend and these institutions simply don’t reopen on Monday. Your money will be frozen in place and completely inaccessible. Sure, the relative small dollar amounts in checking and savings accounts might remain available. But the big chunks will be locked away under ‘capital control’ decrees."
    SkyNet is Sentient and Will Destroy Your Investments and Pension | Zero Hedge

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  • Danny B
    2 articles

    Read these 2 articles and then,,, go plant a garden.
    The Automatic Earth; "The Conflicts Forum, directed by former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke, sent me another unpublished article by Alastair and asked if the Automatic Earth would publish it. But of course. Previous articles by Alastair published here are: ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent in October 2016, Obstacles to Trump’s ‘Growth’ Plans in November 2016 and What is this ‘Crisis’ of Modernity? in January 2017."
    The article puts together David Stockman's original article and then, adds a few other observations.

    The swamp is a reference to the District of Corruption. You can throw in NYC for good measure. The deep State is so insanely removed from the common people that, it is at war with them. Send your money and, SHTFU.

    The CBs have killed volatility in the markets in the name of "saving them". They have no appreciation for the danger this brings if any kind of disruption hits.
    Deutsche Bank: The Market's Current "Metastability" Will Lead To "Cataclysmic Events" | Zero Hedge

    There is something that I see little mention of.
    Search; The one hundredth Monkey
    Search; quantum tunnelling
    Search; Princeton Egg
    Our species is in contact at the quantum level. When the bubble is pricked, the contagion and fear will spread faster than believed possible.

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  • Danny B
    Shrink the debt bubbble.... inverted yield curve

    America's lock on the reserve currency has been referred to by the French as, "exorbitant privilege". But, it has also become a trap. The current-account deficit must always grow. Other States must do vendor-financing and hold lots of Treasury bonds. The FED printed up about $27 trillion in the 2008 collapse. A big part of that was needed by European banks to service dollar-denominated debt. Every time that dollar liquidity threatens to shrink, dollar-debt holders get a coronary arrest. The FED may claim that they have stopped QE but, the ESF and PPT are still pumping liquidity into every index and orifice.

    The FED also depends on other CBs to pump in liquidity. China has been spectacularly successful.
    6/18 US casting nervous eye at China’s ‘phenomenal’ debt levels – SCMP The credit bubble must grow but, there are threats of deflation everywhere. After the collapse of Spanish banks and the extreme haircut to the stockholders and bondholders, EVERYBODY in Europe is nervous about bank debt.
    6/18 Fear of contagion feeds the Italian banking crisis – Wolf Street Yep, the Italians are in worse shape than the Spanish. It was called a bail-in but, they don't mention the $5 billion in tax credits that the buyer got.
    Fear of Contagion Feeds the Italian Banking Crisis | Wolf Street

    Employment never recovered from the 2008 crash,
    " out-of-pocket costs to purchase a new vehicle have steadliy risen from just over $19,000 in 1997 to over $33,000 today:" The FED graphs show no rise in price at all.
    "As of today, credit impulse has gone negative across the world for the first time since the start of the Great Recession.

    In Part 2: Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse, we lay out the evidence for why there’s a credit impulse-driven recession on the way. It will come whether or not the underlying economy is recovering or not.

    Why? Because the amount of debt creation was absolutely massive across the globe, particularly in China. The excessive debt service will simply overwhelm the economy -- it won't even be a close fight."

    "The yield curve as seen in the picture above continues to flatten out, and this trend will continue until the curve inverts.
    The last time the yield curve inverted, the 2008 economic meltdown occurred, and the time before that we suffered bubble meltdown.

    The fact is we are existing in a multiple bubble economy at this time, worse, and unlike anything which has ever been seen before.
    The reason why these bubbles exist is simple: the Federal Reserve has not allowed the market to do its one and only job, and that is to determine fair value." Fair value is not compatible with crony capitalism and a bloated finance sector.
    "What this means is when the yield curve inverts this time, we will experience a meltdown magnitudes greater then the 2008 crash.

    The irony is just like last time, the general public has no idea of what is coming and they are just as complacent as well.

    In summary.
    The federal reserves attempt at raising interest rates is having a paradoxical effect on the market as the yield curve continues to flatten.
    I fully expect the yield curve to invert in the not so distant future. What this means is we can expect a market meltdown orders of magnitude worse than the last two times we had a yield curve inversion."

    "The defense industry gets rich, instead of that money being spent on whatever the robbed taxpayers were going to spend it on. Any number of industries suffer because our money is stolen and thrown into the trash-pit-of-destruction that is the defense industry.

    At least when welfare recipients take our money they only kill themselves if they spend it on cigarettes, alcohol, and crack. The welfare *****s in the military industrial complex spend it on killing others and inflaming international tensions.
    What do they care? More war only makes them richer."
    Shovel Ready: How The Fed Makes Us Dig Our Own Graves | The Daily Bell

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  • Danny B
    The parasitic costs of finance and speculation

    "They" claim that America lost manufacturing jobs because we are paid too much. But, labor's share of the GDP has steadily dropped. Finance's share has steadily grown.
    "It may be surprising to note that labor accounts for a relatively small 16% of total manufacturing costs in the US. This moves as high as 30% for certain sectors such as electronics and apparel, to as low as 6-7% for sectors such as Motor Vehicles"
    CHART: The Cost Of Manufacturing Stuff - Business Insider
    The chart makes NO mention of the cost of finance even though it runs like a poison through everything.

    This article has EXCELLENT graphs on the cost of labor but, it is a PDF and I can't extract them.
    Hourly compensation costs in U.S. dollars 2011 The cost ranges from $64.15 in Norway to $35.53 in America to $6.48 in Mexico.
    The BLS had to do an entirely different comparison for China and India.
    2008 $ 1.36 for China and a bit less for India. "average salary nationwide hit 7,665 yuan ($1,111) in the first quarter of 2017"
    Wages have risen quite a bit in China because of the one-child policy.

    "For India, BLS estimates of compensation costs refer to formal manufacturing only, rather than to total manufacturing in the country. Unorganized sector manufacturing workers account for approximately 80 percent of total manufacturing employment in India and earn substantially less than their formal sector counterparts."

    So, the Chinese make 200 bucks a week in a manufacturing job. The American worker makes $ 1421.20.
    "Although growth is still strong, China's GDP per worker is only 17% of America's."

    China has lower wage costs and lower productivity. America is burdened by huge finance costs making her uncompetitive in many sectors.

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  • Danny B
    Sr. Price.... debt-free money and war

    Dream Money; .:Plata:.

    The Bretton Woods agreement meant that the various signatories could NOT print domestic currency unless they had dollars as reserves.
    The Bretton Woods agreement meant that America could not print dollars unless it had gold to back them.
    As their economies grew, the various States had to have more and more dollars to print domestic currency,,, to service their internal economy. They demanded more and more dollars and, sold us stuff to get those dollars.

    "In a few words, it turns out that in order for the international monetary system established at BrettonWoods to function, the US is forced to run a permanent trade deficit with the rest of the world. Year after year, the US must purchase more from the rest of the world, than what the US sells to the rest of the world, thus creating a permanent flow of dollars to the rest of the world. This flow makes possible the creation of Monetary Reserves in the Central Banks of the rest of the world."

    "Without this constant flow of dollars from the US to the International Reserves of the Central Banks of the world, the currencies issued by those Central Banks would cease to exist. "
    "In order to obtain dollars, it is necessary to sell to American customers some product at a lower price than that demanded by an American producer. It is self-evident that there is no other form of introducing an export into US territory, than by means of underselling an American competitor.

    This is the reason why a large part of what was once the great American manufacturing industry has disappeared: the overwhelming need of the rest of the world to export to the US, in order to obtain dollars, caused the deindustrialization of the US."
    "It is quite unjust to blame the rest of the world for having caused the deindustrialization of the US, and to point an accusing finger at Mexico, for instance, as an enemy of the US because it has been a successful exporter of manufactures to the US. Mexico has simply been operating according to the rules established by the US itself in the Bretton Woods Agreements: the dollar is the world's currency, and at all costs, it is imperative to have dollars in order for Mexico to have a monetary system."

    "In order to obtain dollars, it is necessary to sell to American customers some product at a lower price than that demanded by an American producer. "
    50% of the cost of any item is for financing. 19% for trash collection.... 78% for public housing. The Yuan was too immature and China needed dollars to run it's economy. Since everything in America had a 100% markup, the Chinese could structure their credit system so that they could sell for much less. They also had a much lower labor cost.
    The Chinese undercut the American labor costs.
    The Chinese undercut the American finance costs.

    There has been reams written about how China killed American manufacturing.
    But, American manufacturing is much more efficient that Chinese manufacturing. If the Chinese government continues to print whatever money the producing economy needs, they can always undercut our financing costs. This is contingent on them printing debt-free money.

    There has been plenty of research on debt-free money,
    American colonial currency was debt-free money, Randy Wray: American Colonial Currency (Debt Free Money, Part 4) | naked capitalism
    Japan carries HUGE amounts of GOV debt. As long as it just stays on GOV books, it is essentially debt-free money. Ellen Brown claims that Japan has created debt-free money in a "stealth" manner.

    The European bankers have attacked every State that used debt-free money. But, the power of the U.S. military is insufficient to take on the united Eastern front.
    After the collapse of the Breton Woods agreement in 1971, the American hegemon made an offer to Saudi Arabia that they couldn't refuse. The petro-dollar was born and dollars were much in demand again. Iran, Russia and China are bypassing the dollar for trade. Pox Americana is rattling sabres at all of them. When the sovereign bond market collapses, the threats of war will ring even-more hollow.

    Europe is toast,,, the West is toast. The only way to escape is to JUDICIOUSLY create debt-free money.

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  • Danny B
    Hugo Salinas Price

    Where Are We Today?
    Hugo Salinas Price

    The US has been regarded as the West's leader since WW II. The US led with the objective of international cooperation to achieve orderly growth and prosperity for the countries led by the US.

    Now suppose you have a football team, and the quarterback comes out and says, "Quarterback is First!" and scolds members of his team, and insults one of his team-mates and sends him to the bench in disgrace. How long is that team going to hold together? Not very long, I would say.

    The deeper fact is that the status of the US as the world's leader, since the end of WW II, has ended and is finished. Mr. Trump's own plan to "Make America Great Again" is sending, by his own admission, a silent message: "America is no longer great."

    If the US does actually clamp down on imports, as Mr. Trump envisions, and begins to hide behind economic protectionism through taxes on imports in true "developing world" fashion, then the US will be blocking the spring from which the rest of the world has been getting its dollars; there will be a scarcity of dollars in the rest of the world and that will mean world deflation with all its consequences: a rash of bankruptcies around the world for lack of dollars to service debt.

    The US simply cannot have it both ways: it cannot issue the world's money, and indulge in economic protectionism. If the US goes for economic protectionism, then US dollar will, sooner or later, cease to be the world's money as steps are taken to replace the dollar.

    In human affairs, when one leader is gone, it is not long before another leader takes over.

    As the US passes from the scene as the world's leading country, who will inherit the throne of world leadership?

    With the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte's combined French and Spanish fleets at Trafalgar in 1805, Britain obtained mastery of the world's oceans and of world trade for the next century and more. Later, with the defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo in 1815, world leadership settled on Great Britain.

    With the 1945 defeat of the Axis armies in WW II by the combined forces of Great Britain and the US, world leadership passed from Great Britain to the US.

    As 72 years of world leadership on the part of the US fade into history, who will take over world leadership? I suggest it will be Eurasia: Europe, Russia and China in economic cooperation.

    Will the transfer of leadership take place peacefully, or will it require a WW III?

    I do not think that anyone in the US wants a nuclear war with Russia and China. However, a great economic interest group in the US - the Military/Industrial/ Congressional Complex (as President Eisenhower initially identified this political machine) - lives on a gigantic yearly flow of funds from the US Government budget, and this flow depends on the perceived threat of an enemy for its existence. "No enemy" would mean no hundreds of billions of dollars a year for the coffers of this vast interest group.

    This is why Mr. Trump's initial proposal to establish better relations with Russia has been scrapped: the Military/Industrial/Congressional Complex has a vested interest in having Russia as an enemy.

    The great danger for the US is that while no single American or group of Americans may actually want a nuclear war with Russia and China, some small accident may rapidly scale into outright world war.

    In the past, Russia suffered the loss of tens of millions of its population because it patiently waited for its enemy to attack. Russia learned a very painful lesson by being patient. If war appears to be the definite plan on the part of the US, it is possible that Russia may strike the US first.

    This is where we are today."

    "Bonds Will Not Turn Into a Noah's Flood of Cash
    Hugo Salinas Price

    I enjoyed talking with Greg Hunter, of Real News from Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog: Economic News and Breaking News Reports over a Skype Interview - one of the marvels of our time, where we can see and talk with friends who are thousands of miles away from us.

    Unfortunately, Greg caught me off balance at the beginning of our interview, with a question for which I was quite unprepared - I had been expecting to talk about silver and its possible monetization in Mexico.

    The question which put me in a momentary fix was, in general and not word-for-word: "What about that enormous black debt cloud that you have said is hanging over the world? What happens when the debt cloud begins to rain debt on the world?"

    Well, when clouds release their moisture, it rains. But when a debt cloud is "saturated" so to speak, it does not rain cash, contrary to what I said in the spur of the moment: "We shall have a Noah's flood of cash." My bad!

    No, when at some point the total of world debt hanging over humanity has reached a point where the owners of that debt - which consists mainly of bonds - are going to want to sell their bonds, there will be more sellers of bonds than purchasers, and their prices will begin to fall.

    At some point, the initial fall in the values of bonds will cause fear that the fall in price may continue, and more sellers will show up.

    In short order - fear is very contagious! - sellers will far outnumber purchasers of bonds and their price will collapse - many of the bonds will become worthless, others will lose a large percentage of their value.

    The bond rout will wipe out multi-trillions of dollars of what the bond holders thought was wealth.

    That is what I think will have to happen, at some point. Bonds will not turn into cash, they will turn into dust.

    We won't have a "Noah's flood" of cash. We'll be stuck in the middle of a Sahara Desert of worthless bonds."

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  • Danny B
    Candidates for the prick

    How fast will this turnaround when something pricks their confidence?
    So, where will the prick come from and what will it look like?
    "12,836 creditor committees by the end of last year, to help manage credit of 14.85 trillion yuan." I'm sure that they are all honest, competent people.
    NPL, "Bass said he believes non-performing loans at Chinese financial institutions are running at a 20 percent rate, not the 1.7 percent rate that has been widely reported."
    "Growth has enough momentum to get the economy to its 6.5% CY target, with 6% probable in the second half. That ought to be enough to stop too many dead bodies floating to the surface."
    This "growth" includes the money that China pumps into the economy. Actual productivity is falling and negative.
    "Thus, if I were him I’d be using the Australian dollar as a Chinese proxy short, given the reform scenario sees both Australia’s commodity and housing markets simultaneously adjusted.
    There will be no save for the Aussie dollar."

    I've already posted the dreadful numbers for credit growth in China. It is definitely a candidate for the big prick.

    David Stockman has his own ideas;
    "I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter.

    He is not only impetuous, mercurial, undisciplined and unpredictable. But for reasons I will elaborate below, totally clueless about how to manage his presidency or cope with the circling long knives of the Deep State which are hell bent on removing him from office.

    Accordingly, the single most important thing to know about the present risk environment is that it is extreme and unprecedented. In essence, the ruling elites and their mainstream media megaphones have arrogantly decided that the 2016 election was a correctable error."
    "So it is no understatement to suggest that the S&P 500 at 2440 is about as fragile as the “market” has ever been. Any pinprick could send it to a bubbly grave. It’s the mighty Orange Swan that will break the casino like never before."
    "At the kind of bubble inflection points of which Kass speaks, the punters become not only stupidly complacent, but thoroughly delirious."

    "In that sense, it is a generational high. The casino is infested not only with new-age snowflakes who have never seen a dip of more than 7%. But also complacent veterans of the entire era of bubble finance who have generated untold financial wealth by riding the bull from one bubble to the next, and now remain fearless with a vengeance."

    Now, we get to the important part;
    "In that context, here is what will take the Donald down, and it’s not some new smoking gun about RussiaGate. Instead, it’s actually the growing possibility that he will do the right thing when the Treasury runs out of cash around Labor Day, and there is no capacity to assemble a majority in both houses to raise the debt ceiling by trillions."

    "I’m referring to the dreaded “A” word. That is, use of the President’s constitutional authority to “allocate” the incoming revenue flows — which are running about $700 billion per year lower than outlays — to what he determines are the government’s highest priority purposes.

    Undoubtedly, among these would be paying interest on the debt, sending-out the Social Security and veterans checks, paying military contractors and payrolls and the like.

    Needless to say, resort to “allocation” would be the ultimate sin in the eyes of the bipartisan establishment. They would instantly start bellowing from every corner of the Swamp about an unconstitutional power grab by the White House.

    And the mainstream media would go to DEFCON 1 about the alleged unlawful and dictatorial actions of a President who should never have been in the Oval Office in the first place."
    "When asked what those backup plans would be, Mnuchin referred to them as “Treasury secretary’s “super powers.”

    I say, more power to him — even if it is the 50,000 pound pin that punctures the Great Bubble now at hand." Now that is a BIG prick.
    "On the other hand, I’m quite confident there is only one other alternative — a prolonged government shutdown and a thundering breakdown of governance and all government function."

    Congress must somehow remove Trump in the next few weeks OR, they will go into complete gridlock and shutdown to block him. There are alternatives.
    Melania has moved into the White House because secret-service could no longer protect her in any other abode. "They" are determined to remove Trump,,, or worse.
    The deep State is so frantic to preserve their wealth, status and position that they blindly work to destroy Trump. They have NO conception or consideration for the guaranteed blowback.

    Keep in mind that all the presidents celebrated on Mt. Rushmore were war presidents. The hildebeest had visions of joining them after her successful trouncing of Russia. Trump will never be on Mt. Rushmore but, he may very well be the president who ends the cycle of war.

    Venezuela was a moderately homogeneous society. They were formerly very rich and now, are very poor. They had good wages and social programs and, now they don't.
    "The body says some 60 people were recorded as killed in lynchings in the first five months of this year alone.
    Last year there were 126 such killings "
    "Their aim is to kill the person before the police arrive," says Marco Ponce, coordinator of the Venezuelan Social Conflict Observatory (OVCS)."

    America is turning quite violent and is far less homogeneous racially than Venezuela. The removal of GOV programs under a shutdown can be expected to make things much worse.
    Summer of Hate: The Arrival of the Crisis and The Second Civil War? - Stock Board Asset

    6/17 The politics of ending Europe’s stimulus – Bloomberg sure, end the stimulus and,,, Italy crashes within 3 hours.
    6/17 Petrodollar system in trouble – SRSrocco Report
    6/17 Forget coal, solar will soon be cheaper than natural gas power – Think Progress
    6/15 Wind, solar surpass 10 percent of power production – Chron

    Don't even mention nuke power. The rise of solar will absolutely trash the financials that are heavily invested in carbon. If even natural gas can't compete, what chance do the others have?

    It is well known that Hitler's Germany had to be trounced because he bypassed the international bankers. Evidently, the same was true of Japan many decades ago. They just produced the money that was needed for the producing economy, NOT for speculation.
    Start watching at 3:45,
    Japan has HUGE debt at the moment. In the Vid, it is mentioned that Japan owes the debt to themselves and have re-created the system that previously worked so well for them.
    China has a huge debt and it is starting to look like they will just carry the debt and print what they need,,, independent of the international bankers.

    The Anglo-American curse that originated in London and transferred to other European capitals centuries ago is winding down. There is no question that the debt bubble will blow. The Central Banks will try to maintain their monopoly. If Japan and China use debt-free money, the rest of Asia will follow. The FED can no longer use gun-boat diplomacy to hold down all the other economies.
    It LOOKS like a war is to be started up against Iran. BUT, isreal is the hostage, "Israel anticipates 230,000 incoming missiles during next war "
    The sabres will rattle,,, the deep state will block Trump,,,The markets will go up in smoke.
    Make no misteake , Central banks have just one purpose. Remember, war is the most profitable enterprise for them.
    "Early central banks were commonly set up to provide
    finance to help fund wartime governments." Page 3
    "The gold standard was overwhelmed by the financing needs of governments during World War I." page 4
    This is a very informative paper authored by Weber, Trichet, et al.
    The very educated authors are very convincing that we MUST have constant monetary inflation for the system to "work"
    It is all so logical and convincing.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    C. H. Smith and the anatomy of the debt supernova

    C. H. Smith, "As I noted yesterday in Will the Crazy Global Debt Bubble Ever End?, I've used the Supernova analogy for years, but didn't properly explain why it illuminates the dynamics of financial bubbles imploding. "
    " A key feature of a pre-supernova super-massive star is its rapid expansion. As the star consumes its available fuel via nuclear fusion, the star's outer layer expands. Once there is no longer enough fuel/fusion to resist the force of gravity, the star implodes as gravity takes over.

    This collapse ejects much of the outer layers of the star in an event of unprecedented violence. "
    " In other words, debt is limited by earnings. If earnings decline, or fall far behind the expansion of debt, eventually borrowers can no longer borrow more, or refuse to borrow more. "
    Stock earnings are dead. Bonds are ZIRP or NIRP. Wages are falling.
    "In a deflationary supernova, defaults--and the avoidance of additional debt--are the gravity that overwhelms the forces of expanding debt. Once the losses and risk are visible to all participants, the herd psychology changes, and participants no longer believe that central banks "are now the ultimate power in the Universe."
    Herd psychology is just amazing at this point. The muppets actually believe the total BS numbers from GOV. How fast will this turnaround when something pricks their confidence?

    "Central banks can create currency and credit, but they can't create earnings or productive real-world wealth. These are the limiting dynamics of any debt-dependent system. "
    "The financial implosion triggers social and political upheavals. Recall that one person's debt is another entity's asset. When debt is blown off in either a deflationary or inflationary implosion, all the "wealth" represented by debt is also blown off. "
    "And how much did expanding debt boost productivity? Oops! Rapidly expanding financialized (i.e. unproductive) debt is Kryptonite to productivity. "
    "when the Empire collapses, the debt-assets of the super-wealthy are blown off in the supernova along with all the other artificial constructs of our corrupt, corrupting, rapacious, exploitive system."
    Of Two Minds - How Debt-Asset Bubbles Implode: The Supernova Model of Financial Collapse
    Keep in mind that the super rich own GREAT riches. They will lose the most.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Atlantic claptrap, GM in trouble,,defaults & liar loans.. Illinois

    We all know that the one percenters are screwing all the rest of us. Now The Atlantic claims that the top 20% of earners are screwing the other 80%.
    "The one percent have well and truly trounced the 99 percent, but the 20 percent have done their part to immiserate the 80 percent, as well"
    "the Century Foundation has proposed, say, or baby bonds to help eliminate the black-white wealth gap fostered by decades of racist and exclusionary government policy, as Darrick Hamilton has suggested. (So often, the upper-middle class insulating and enriching itself at the expense of the working class has meant white families doing so at the expense of black families"

    "They dominate the country’s top colleges, sequester themselves in wealthy neighborhoods with excellent public schools and public services, and enjoy healthy bodies and long lives. “It would be an exaggeration to say that the upper-middle class is full of gluten-avoiding, normal-BMI joggers who are only marginally more likely to smoke a cigarette than to hit their children,”
    Just socialist claptrap that is gaining a LOT more traction recently. If you are UP, it must be because you pushed somebody else DOWN.

    " As a result, GM’s inventory spiked 43.5% at end of May compared with the prior year. It has nearly 1 million vehicles sitting on dealer lots, estimates, representing 101 days’ worth of supply, or 23.4% of total industry stock."
    Auto liar loans, "The 2015 vintage that Fitch rates is now experiencing cumulative net losses projected to reach 15%, exceeding the peak loss rates during the Financial Crisis."
    "Negative equity hits all-time record. The average negative equity in vehicles that were traded in for new vehicles during Q1 2017 has reached $5,195 per trade, the highest ever, according to Edmunds data, cited by AutoWeek. The percentage of trade-ins with negative equity has surged to 32.8%, also the highest ever! "
    Your ride is NEVER worth as much as you owe. How could they have so MANY defaults?
    And at least one of them, Santander Consumer USA, the top subprime auto lender in the US, verified income on only 8% of the loans, according to Moody’s. So here we go again. Read… Liar Loans Dog Subprime Auto-Loan-Backed Securities
    GM Extends Plant Shutdowns As Toxic Trifecta For Auto Loans Fuels Carmageddon | Zero Hedge

    London is a huge banking center so, of course, Merkel wants to move it out of London due to Brexit.
    She also wants total control of the Net,

    The State of Illinois is on death watch
    6/16 The $31 billion hole in GE’s balance sheet that keeps growing – Bloomberg
    6/16 UK student loan debt soars to more than £100bn – Guardian no mention that it is about $ 1.2 trillion here,,, with a default rate of between 18---45%.... everybody is lying.
    The FED had no clue in Great depression one and it has no clue for Great Depression two,

    "in an ironic twist, in order to challenge the "unofficial" digital currencies that have propagated in recent years, central banks have also been called on to create distinct official digital currencies, and allow citizens to bypass private sector lenders. As Weidmann explained, this will only make the next crisis worse:"
    "Essentially, Weidmann warned that digital currencies - whose flow can not be blocked by conventional means - make an instant bank run far more likely, and in creating the conditions for a run on bank deposits lenders would be short of liquidity and struggle to make loans. "
    Last edited by Danny B; 06-17-2017, 09:00 PM. Reason: misteake

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    Stocks are going to blow so, jump into the market

    Madness of crowds. Asset valuations,
    OK, so markets are up to the stratosphere. Now would be a good time to get out. Lots of big-time investors are warning that the markets are going to crash. In a market downturn, it is often difficult to find a "bigger fool" to take bad paper off your hands. The FED and PPT are now playing the "bigger fool" and buying all the overpriced garbage.
    Apparently, the mob is afraid of missing out on the profits.
    "look no further than the latest BofA "flow show" in which Michael Hartnett reports that capital markets just saw their biggest week of equity inflows since the US election ($24.6bn), another chunky inflow to bonds ($9.0bn), which combines to "the second largest week of inflows to Wall Street ever (largest was $35.5bn in Dec'2014)."
    The Blow-Off Top Is Here: Second Largest Weekly Inflows To Wall Street In History | Zero Hedge

    Dodgy debt is starting to default in big numbers so,
    "Another winner according to BofA: "yield": investors are still piling into "high-yielding" fixed income product with inflows to IG, HY, EM debt = $35bn past 4 weeks, fastest pace since Feb'15 (Chart 2)"
    Don't call them "junk Bonds",,,, call them high-yield. China is close to blowing so, gamblers pile in to emerging market debt.
    6/16 Kyle Bass still short yuan, says China credit bubble ‘metastasizing’ – Reuters
    6/16 China lies again — FX outflows accelerating – Zero Hedge
    The money is leaving faster and faster.
    6/16 Xi risks China’s Lehman moment – Bloomberg

    "The world is currently as far from a harmonious equilibrium as it has ever been in history. The masses are ultimately responsible for $2.5 quadrillion of debts derivatives and unfunded liabilities."
    "Since the $2.5 quadrillion liabilities can never be repaid or run down in an orderly fashion, we will in the next few years experience a debt implosion which will be totally devastating. Not only will debt implode but also all the assets that have been fuelled by the debt bubble."

    "The coming six month period and especially the autumn, is likely contain a lot of shocks. The investment community is totally oblivious of the risks they are taking by having most of their money in assets that have reached stratospheric values whether it is the stock market at a 30 p/e or property prices at bubble values worldwide or bonds at zero percent. All these asset markets only have one way to go and that is massively down. "

    "We naturally cling to the euphoria and glory of a boom; they generate such hope and positive emotions. The bust is no fun at all, a slow cascade of layoffs, insolvencies, moves to cheaper and far less exciting locales, busted dreams and all the mourning that accompanies the shattering of dreams and hopes."
    Can We See A Bubble If We're Inside The Bubble? | Zero Hedge

    "France is going nuts. They are stopping trains that pass through France and searching people’s bags for cash."
    John Law and the Mississippi Bubble: 1718-1720. John law destroyed the finances of France by over-printing paper money. If you were leaving France, you could not get fresh horses for your carriage until it had been searched for gold.

    The banks want ALL forms of money/payment under their control. After Great Depression One, the Glass Stegal act took depositors/savers money away from the investment bankers/gamblers. A few bucks (and maybe a few underage kids) and slick Willie fixed it all for the bankers. Rubin had a big part in it also. He is the one who started the major transfer of gold out of the U.S.
    So, all the depositors money went to the gamblers. To add insult to injury, the savers no longer even earn interest. The debt bubble is growing astronomically and underlying wealth is NOT.
    The banks definitely do not want tradable wealth like gold to even exist. They have hold down the price of gold fairly well. THEN along comes bitcoin and crypto-currencies. These definitely exclude the bankers. They have a solution,

    "Then Congress started expanding those requirements to include other businesses and industries that might come into contact with cash.

    Stock brokers. Casinos. Currency exchanges. Precious metals dealers. Pawnbrokers. The Post Office.

    According to the law (section 5312 of US Code Title 31), those industries are also required to spy on their customers for the government.

    But under this new bill, they want to forcibly recruit even more unpaid spies, including any business which issues or redeems ANYTHING that’s prepaid.

    Prepaid credit cards. Prepaid phones. Prepaid retail gift cards. Prepaid coupons.

    So,, which issues and redeems prepaid gift cards, will be required under this bill to file reports to the government.

    For that matter, TGI Fridays and Chuckee Cheese will also become unpaid government spies since they both issue and redeem prepaid vouchers.

    Truly these Senators have figured out how to strike at the heart of ISIS.

    Further, their bill wants to pull any business which “issues” cryptocurrency under the anti-money laundering regulatory umbrella."
    It had to happen. They just do not want any competing stores of wealth.
    "require the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection to devise a “border protection strategy to interdict and detect prepaid access devices, digital currencies, or other similar instruments, at border crossings and other ports of entry for the United States, including an assessment of infrastructure needed [emphasis added] to carry out the strategy.”

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  • Danny B
    Deceleration and disintegration

    "The White House and Congress are running out of time to reach a consensus. Mulvaney and Mnuchin have said the government will only be able to pay its bills into sometime in September if Congress doesn’t act because there is a legal cap on government borrowing, and Congress is planning to take a lengthy recess in the month of August."
    You're going to hear a LOT more about this in the coming months.

    The bankers blow a financial bubble when current consumption just isn't enough for them. They pull consumption out of the future.
    "A failure to understand this relationship underlies a disturbing global tendency in recent decades, in which the appropriation of future wealth and resources for current consumption is increasingly disadvantaging future generations. "
    "In a 2010 research paper, entitled “Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How,” Arnaud Mares of Morgan Stanley analyzed national solvency, or the difference between actual and potential government revenue, on one hand, and existing debt levels and future commitments on the other. The study found that by this measure the net worth of the U.S. was negative 800 percent of its GDP; that is, its future tax revenue was less than committed obligations by an amount equivalent to eight times the value of all goods and services America produces in a year."

    " The net worth of European countries ranged from about negative 250 percent (Italy) to negative 1,800 percent (Greece). For Germany, France and the U.K., the approximate figures were negative 500 percent, negative 600 percent and negative 1,000 percent of GDP. "

    Venezuela is getting worse by the week, Venezuela Defaults On Russia; Is Goldman Sachs Next? | RealClearMarkets

    "The U.S. central bank isn’t sure why inflation is staying so low—but it’s raising rates anyway, risking a recession. "
    "Rosenberg, who’s more bearish than most economists, points out that recessions occurred 10 of the last 13 times the Fed raised interest rates. "

    "In my article 'The Trump Collapse Scapegoat Narrative Has Now Been Launched', I discussed the ongoing and highly obvious plan by globalists and international financiers to pull the plug on their fiat support for stock markets and portions of the general economy while blaming the Trump Administration (and the conservative ideal) for the subsequent crash."
    "My position according to Trump's behavior and cabinet selection is that he is aware of this agenda and is playing along. "
    " I remember many people asserting that that the economy's progress was unstoppable, that another crash like 1929 was impossible, that the real estate market was an invincible engine. They were all wrong, yet, they were so confident. "

    "102 million working age Americans do not currently have a job. This includes the 95 million Americans not counted by the Bureau of Labor because they assume these people have been unemployed so long they “do not want to work”. Note to Janet.

    Peak Economic Delusion Signals Coming Crisis

    The current and long-running mantra is FREE MARKETS. But, if the FED must constantly increase the money supply by 2% every year, there is no real price discovery. The CB must pump in all that liquidity to support legions of non-producers. The resulting inflation tax is paid for by all the producers.
    Free markets and crony-capitalism just can't co-exist.

    "population growth began decelerating and the Fed wasn't willing to accept the decelerating consumer growth the "market" was capable of providing. The basis for the expanding pie began decelerating (and is now set to cease entirely)...but the Fed didn't want to live with smaller slices. The Federal Reserve chose to extend growth rates beyond what was otherwise fundamentally possible or sustainable. The Fed wanted the same rate of growth regardless the implications."

    "And if we broaden out to the annual growth of the much larger 15-64yr/old US population...its growth has decelerated to perhaps the slowest in the last century. And against the lack of growth, household net worth as a % of disposable income hits a new record high. The Fed is using its policy "tools" to falsely engineer financially what is not there fundamentally."

    "Yes, as of 2018 the global 0-64yr/old population with all the income, savings, and access to credit begins declining. This is why central bankers have gone wild and about to go far wilder...pushing asset valuations even further into the (fundamentally unsupported) stratosphere. The Fed and central bankers have feared and subverted the slowing "free market" for decades and now are rightly freaked out by what would ensue if a "free market" were allowed to set prices."
    This article has EXCELLENT graphs,

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    The unfolding collapse of another empire

    Charles Hugh Smith brings great clarity and historical interpretation to present day events. Strauss and Howe wrote very clearly about generational turnings,
    Joseph Tainter wrote very clearly about the collapse of complex societies,
    These are not works of speculation or projection. They are the history of the human race. Modern man (whoever that may be) seems to believe that we are on a permanent high plateau of "wealthy society".

    "Sir John Glubb listed a few others in his seminal essay on the end of empires The Fate of Empires, what might be called the dynamics of decadence:"
    " Historian Peter Turchin, whom I have often excerpted here, listed three disintegrative forces that gnaw away the fibers of an Imperial economy and social order:
    1. Stagnating real wages due to oversupply of labor Automation
    2. overproduction of parasitic Elites
    3. Deterioration of central state finances
    War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires"
    "2. The belief in the permanence of the status quo has reached quasi-religious levels of faith. The possibility that the entire financialized, politicized circus of extremes might actually be nothing more than a sand castle that's dissolving in the rising tides of history is not just heresy--it doesn't enter the minds of those reveling in refinement or those demanding more Bread and Circuses (Universal Basic Income, etc.)"

    "We can be quite confident that these powerful elites reckoned the Empire was permanent and its power to secure their wealth and power was effectively unlimited. But alas, their fantastic wealth vanished along with the rest of the centralized, over-extended, complex and costly Imperial structures."
    "But the complete collapse of the financial system and centralized power is not a war or financial crisis--these are storm waters which the Elites have the wherewithal to survive. But when a tsunami disintegrates the entire structure and carries it out to a nameless sea as flotsam and jetsam, there is no transfer of wealth from the Old to the New."
    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Dead Giveaways of Imperial Decline

    As we decline, the State demands ever-more money to support ever-more State sycophants.
    "Jerry Brown is so worried about the environment, but not the people. California is the highest taxed state and they still want to tax people fully upon retirement. California is a complete black hole. The people do not even realize that government has been so corrupt, that every person in California owes $93,000 at the end of 2016 to cover state employee pensions."

    There is more than one way for the State to squeeze out money. "Policing for profit" works very well for squeezing the poor who have no money for a lawyer.

    There isn't a prayer that pension funds can squeeze out the taxpayer funds to keep going.
    The environmentalists want to do a big population reduction,

    In their comprehensive annual financial report, The California university system reports that they have over $90 billion stashed away. Walter Burien shows the CAFR reports of some 27,000 GOV entities.
    Collectively, they hold over $ 100 trillion in assets. He proposes that there is NO need for taxes. WE are collectively squeezed by the State. WE have cut back on our birth rate. Is all of this squeezing done in the name of population reduction? It certainly looks that way.
    Is the coming crash specifically structured to kill a lot of people, especially the poor? A crash of the pension system will definitely take out the elderly. A crash in the sovereign bond market will definitely destroy the safety net.
    Decide for yourself.

    Leave a comment:

  • Danny B
    The galloping printing press

    The GDP is essentially a count of how much money is in the system. When GOV prints money, GOV counts it as part of the GDP. When GOV spends this money it counts it a second time as part of the GDP. U.S GOV spends about 24% of the GDP. But, it spends debt-money that purportedly must be paid back to banks and investors. The more that it spends today, the more inflation it gets. BUT, as this debt is repaid (extracted from the producing economy), the more deflation we get at some future point.
    This future deflation can only be held at bay by pumping ever-more money into the system. There is always a risk that these bonds might not be rolled over. That would bring the dreaded deflation. The solution is for GOV to sell 50 year and 100 year bonds.

    There are 102 million working-age people who are not employed. Somehow, the economy is still growing. The take-away from all this is; don't give a moment's notice to ANY GDP figures.

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