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  • Danny B
    I found a couple of good articles.
    Graphs show an enormous rise in the quantity of money.
    Late Degenerate Capitalism
    That’s when a capitalist economy is taken over by the financial markets. Economists no longer regard economic data as a measure of the health and wealth of the nation but for what impact they might have on the financial markets.

    Excellent article about how monetary velocity affects inflation.
    America long ago passed "peak cheap oil". The State pumped money to speculators that financed fracking to try to keep a low price on carbon energy. All of that is coming to an end.

    In Less Than 14 Days, The Government Will Sever Its $600 Per Week Unemployment Lifeline - Mass Civil Insurrection Will Follow...Get Ready
    7/16 Global debt hits record high of 331% of GDP in first quarter – Reuters
    7/17 The forbearance tsunami: 4.1 million mortgages are in forbearance – Dr. HB

    Canada's First 'Mask Murder'? Ontario Police Kill 73-Year-Old Man After He Refused To Comply With Local Mandate
    "It's causing chaos," she said. "If we didn't have to force him and ... tell him that he couldn't come into the store, nothing would have happened, really.
    Seattle City Council Member Suggests Firing White Officers In Massive Reduction Of Police Department
    "The Stakes Couldn't Be Higher" - European Recovery Plan Summit Begins With Leaders At An Impasse
    Armstrong told them in 1989 that this would be the eventual outcome.

    Profs Demand University Police Chief Resign After Seeing 'Blue Lives Matter' Flag At His Home
    "The only way forward is with his resignation. Why is it so difficult to comprehend?"
    The feces-for-brains Left believes that ONLY their values & beliefs have ANY merit.

    Some People Laundered Some Things? Ilhan Omar's Payments To Husband's Firm Top $1 Million
    She has routinely dismissed the inquiries as "smears" and "conspiracy theories."

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  • Danny B
    Armstrong; "We will witness the collapse after 2032 and the shift to Asia. We are looking at 2028 as the start of the major collapse which should take just 4.3 years from that target date. The collapse will most likely take place more like the demise of Yugoslavia whereby it split according to religion but this time there will also be political philosophy. As Western Society begins to buckle at the knees going into 2028, we should expect to see a draconian attempt to retain power starting in 2024."

    As far as a split goes, will this split the cities against the rural areas? Will it pit the blob-state parasites against the real producers?
    7/16 Seattle raises taxes on jobs but exempts public employees – FEE The sacred cow blob state.
    One of the failing points of communism,,,, you can't force the farmers to work for free.

    John Hussman writes a very good article that shows stocks MUST continue to rise in price, no matter the earnings or, anything else.
    Creeping fascism created the corporatocracy AND the destruction of the nuclear family. Creeping socialism helped break up the family by giving social support to everybody who didn't want to abide by any rules.
    The whole pension system depends on stock dividends. The State must pump liquidity into the equity markets or, face the destruction of the pension system.

    The FED is pumping in liquidity by the $trillions. This isn't going to work forever.
    Smith; "
    Meanwhile, the entire food chain of landlords, banks, local government, employees, etc. depends on enterprises returning to 100% of 2019 revenues. As tenants stop paying rent, landlords default on mortgages, sending banks into insolvency, leaving local government with less tax revenues and employees with fewer job prospects.

    To a degree few appreciate, the "recovery" since 2009 has been dependent on over-spending, over-borrowing and over-speculating: as spending, borrowing and speculation all pull back to what would have been "normal" levels two generations ago, the economy collapses because it's become completely dependent on over-spending, over-borrowing and over-speculating.
    As consumers and businesses retrench, borrowing declines while defaults and bankruptcies eviscerate bank profits and balance sheets."
    The lower reaches of the financial food chain are already dying, and every entity that depended on that layer is doomed: the small business die-off will bring down distributors, banks, landlords, and employment, and as the this layer collapses then the top predators will starve to death as well: Big Tech, healthcare, higher education, tourism, local tax revenues, etc.
    The clouds are spreading and thickening, and the dawn sky is tinted an ominous red. This is a financial extinction event, and the Fed's pathetic shamans can't reverse history.

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  • Danny B
    Here is a good article on just how much the Dems are pushing the country towards socialism.
    Socialism always breaks the bank. Mike Adams claims that California is going to crash in 90 days.
    Europe is quite socialist and, the members can't agree on anything.

    Covid debt
    "If we add government and private debt, we are talking about 200 trillion US dollars of debt, a global increase of over 35% of GDP, well above the 20% seen after the 2008 crisis, and all in a single year."
    "This brutal increase in indebtedness is not going to prevent economies from falling rapidly. The main problem of this global stimulus chain is that it is entirely oriented to support bloated government spending, and artificially low bond yields. "
    "The balance sheet of the European Central Bank has increased by almost two trillion euros so far this year and is already more than 52% of the eurozone’s GDP, much higher than that of the Federal Reserve, which is in 32.6% of the GDP of the USA"

    The banks;
    "the S&P 500 Financials index is still down 26% since last December. Wells Fargo alone is down 55% this year"
    The next shearing;
    7/14 Tesla stock went into reverse and took the Nasdaq with it – CNBC
    7/14 Ten thousand day traders an hour are buying Tesla shares – Yahoo!

    7/14 Trump’s demand that schools fully reopen spurned by big districts – Politico
    He wants to put LOTS of distance between him and the lockdowns.
    7/14 Will the Federal Reserve cause the next riots? – GoldSeek
    There will be lots of contenders on that question.
    7/13 Cost-cutting and covid-19 could catalyze election day chaos – Zero Hedge
    There will be lots of contenders creating chaos.

    7/14 If the US was Japan, the Fed’s balance sheet would be $25 trillion – Zero Hedge
    "They" are pumping in about $1 trillion a month. Just give it a bit more time.
    7/13 Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles – Reuters
    7/13 Wall Street reaps a bonanza on Fed’s support for corporate debt – Yahoo!
    7/13 American investors are plugging the U.S.’s record budget deficit – Yahoo!
    GOV prints money and, force-feeds it into corporate America to preserve employment. Corporate America pumps liquidity BACK into GOV. GOV must create a LOT of liquidity to make sure that some of it comes back into bond auctions. At the same time that Trump is trying to preserve employment with liquidity, the Left is trying to destroy employment.
    7/14 California to close restaurants, theaters and bars as cases rise – CNBC

    Fiscal cliffs and the self-destructing Treasury – Michael Pento

    "Also of note should be that regardless the crisis (Lost decade(s), Fukushima, 9/11, GFC, Coronavirus) the answer has been the same; cheaper debt to incentivize more debt and call it "growth" (without a concern how it would ever be repaid)."
    Now the US government has decided even the best efforts of US consumers to consume beyond their means isn't adequate...and thus official government debt to GDP is soaring (and of course, this doesn't take into account the 2x to 4x larger unfunded liabilities that did not exist prior to 1950). Like Japan, the US federal government and Federal Reserve have taken an ever increasingly "interventionist role", to great effect for asset valuations. One note on the estimated return to working age population growth by mid 2020's in the chart is entirely dependent on the unlikely return to high rates of immigration."

    This article lays out in detail the fact that we can NEVER return to economic growth while we have population shrinkage. The feces-for-brains in Europe came to the conclusion that they could bring in dirtbag, worthless immigrants and, growth would return. They imported crime & pestilence from "nations" that were famous for crime and pestilence.
    The tribes from North Africa are famous for NEVER assimilating into a new home country (host). How did the French ever think that Somalis would ever be an economic benefit?
    Just part of the plan to destroy Europe.
    Practical Idealism: The Kalergi Plan to destroy European peoples [Coudenhove-Kalergi, Richard, Dimitra Ekmektsis] on
    Last edited by Danny B; 07-14-2020, 04:29 PM. Reason: Duhhh

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  • Danny B
    But let me throw a bit of reality into the mix and it’s absolutely mind boggling.
    5 stocks have just added over half a trillion in market cap in just 6 days. Six days. Ponder that:
    5 stocks now have a combined market cap over $6.5 trillion.
    These very same stocks have added over $1.6 trillion in market cap in 2020:"
    So, the hyperinflation has invaded the upper loop. Eventually, gravity will take over.
    "It gets worse. Since 2019 these stocks have added over $3.2 trillion in market cap:"
    "We Are In Irrational Exuberance": Mike Novogratz Warns Stocks Are "Unhinged From Reality"

    7/11 Catholic church lobbied for taxpayer funds, got $1.4b – AP
    Yep, they had to pay off the pedophile lawsuits.
    7/10 House Armed Services Committee approves huge military budget – Intercept
    Injecting liquidity to preserve jobs. What happens when this comes to an end?

    "The coronavirus pandemic inflicted a “swift and massive shock” that has caused the broadest collapse of the global economy since 1870 despite unprecedented government support, the World Bank said."

    LA Teachers Union Says Schools Can't Reopen Unless Charter Schools Get Shut-Down, Police Defunded

    They also want Medicare-for-All, a wealth tax, a federal bailout...

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  • Danny B
    Recovered after everything erased;

    I need to report more on trends and, less on specifics. There is just too much financial news to try to make sense of it all. We all know that various governments have been creating liquidity by the mega ton. One would expect this tactic to result in hyperinflation. John Williams has a good vid on hyperinflation.
    Hyperinflation can not be over-simplified. It depends on; money supply, velocity and confidence.
    For the question of money supply, there is some new news.
    Revolving credit debt drops to $996 billion—the lowest since the great recession
    Fed balance sheet below $7 trillion, repo drops to zero for first time since September

    This is definite deflation from previous extreme levels. Where will it play out,,, which markets?
    Here is an excellent article from a guy who lists his previous predictions and, how they played out. He was often very correct.

    The money supply in the lower loop has been heavily goosed by $trillions in stimulus. "They" want us to continue to make payments up the credit chain. We are NOT doing this.
    Confidence has been lost and, we just quit paying our debts. This requires more and more stimulus to the upper loop to make up the difference.
    Prices in the lower loop have even fallen some. "They" print money and hand it out. "They" can't print confidence so, we limit our spending to just essentials.

    "They" are frantic to keep the banks capitalized. If the FED, et al have cut back on the creation of liquidity, this may be a sign that they are going to throw in the towel
    when it comes to unlimited liquidity.

    America was created as a republic because all democracies fail. Slowly, over the years, democracy has infiltrated our system. The handouts have slowly increased. Our status as "reserve currency" has made it possible to support many millions of non-producers. Typical for all democracies, the GOV goes bust. FED GOV is currently treading water at survival. Armstrong said that the U.S dollar will be the last to fall. Armstrong frames all of this as a fight against socialism. This is mostly true but, it isn't the whole story.
    Galloping automation is a huge pressure on the system. Armstrong writes about how Argentina went from riches to poverty from runaway socialism.

    C.H. Smith; "The fantasy of linearity holds that a 10% decline in revenues, profits, rents collected, etc. will only cause a 10% decline in isolated parts of the economy."

    As the inverted pyramid collapses, the effects will be non-linear: a 10% decline may trigger dominoes that end up generating an 90% decline in "value" and "wealth" because the collapse of collateral to a non-fantasy valuation will implode all the phantom valuations piled on steadily more fragile and fantastic layers of phantom "capital."
    The fantasy of the Neofeudal Aristocracy is that the losses can be painlessly transferred to the debt-serfs and taxpaying peasantry.
    The Neofeudal Aristocracy overlooks one terribly inconvenient fact: the debt-serfs and peasantry own next to nothing. The non-linear collapse of phantom capital will have asymmetric consequences: all the "assets" most likely to go to zero are owned not by the peasantry but by the Neofeudal Aristocracy.

    7/11 Market heads for worst earnings season in 12 years amid slowing recovery – CNBC
    Markets have no earnings. It is only the rise in prices that keeps investors from leaving. If stimulus has stopped,,, and earnings are non-existent, what will support markets now?
    7/11 Global public debt, fiscal deficits to reach all-time high, IMF warns – LiveMint

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  • Danny B
    Man started out as a hunter-gatherer. He consumed what he produced. Later, man developed farming and animal-husbandry. He still consumed what he produced. As he got more efficient, he produced more than he needed. He invented barter. In a barter system, you always have something of value in hand. Barter became inconvenient because of the mismatch in needs/wants. He developed various intermediaries to direct barter. The best intermediary was something that the greatest number of people needed or wanted.
    Salt was universally needed and, enjoyed widespread acceptance as an intermediary. Hence the word "salary" Eventually, precious metals like gold became the standard intermediary. With the system of intermediaries that had intrinsic value, you ALWAYS had something of value in hand.

    With the invention of paper money, you had a claim on something of value. Since the world is full of people who have no intention of working or producing, there is always a great motivation to corrupt the paper money. Once that the production of paper money is disassociated from productivity, the effortless creation of more paper money runs amuck. In a general sense, the number of claims on the fruits of production greatly increase while the actual "fruits" remain the same. This normally causes the "fruits" to go up in value. This price inflation results when claims go up but, productivity does not.
    In the age of automation, productivity is primarily constrained by a lack of consumption.
    Wages are the connecting link between production & consumption. If wages are lacking, consumption does NOT rise, regardless of productivity.

    The bankers are the primary corrupters of paper money. They are parasites, rather than producers. At the same time, they have great control over the growth of the money supply. Since they are non-producing parasites, they have great motivation to corrupt the money supply in their favor.
    50% of Americans of working age are not in the labor force. Consumption and the velocity of money are falling drastically. This greatly threatens the credit bubble. The current offered solution is; send free money to people to get them to maintain the credit bubble by making payments.
    In the age of covid, the lockdowns have killed confidence. People are hoarding cash and, skipping loan payments. The advent of a second lockdown will make things much worse.
    106 million loans are not being serviced. The bankers are inducing the FED to make up the difference. Regardless of stimulus paid to people, they are not going to regain confidence. They are not going to pay mortgages. $1 trillion a month stimulus is now proving to be inadequate.

    The other great non-producer, the State, is having equal problems at squeezing out sustenance from the taxpayers. The great Blob State, comprised of many millions of non-producing bureaucrats, worldwide can NOT survive on a shrinking tax base. Parkinson's Law states that this blob will grow by 6% a year regardless of work load. The Western world is being heavily pushed into a world socialism scheme as a panacea for the loss of wages, employment and, the tax base.
    The great fault of socialism is that it kills off motivation. The blob State labors away at inconsequential efforts that are all designed to provide a sinecure for people who are unemployable in the private sector. These many millions of bureaucrats do NOT need any motivation other than a paycheck. Socialism looks wonderful to people who never had any motivation to begin with.
    Socialism demotivates the actual producers. As the ever-growing demands of the blob state grow, the demotivated producers cut back production. The bankers demand more. The bureaucrats demand more. The whole cadre of non-producers demand more. The whole system goes bankrupt from the imbalance.

    The Cuban government just told Cubans to grow food or, starve.
    The collapse of socialism generally results in a collapse of the food supply. Man must revert to being a hunter-gatherer.

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  • Danny B
    I found another excellent comment at Zero Hedge;

    "The current situation in which personal income is soaring as businesses are closed, bankrupt, or just plain losing lots of money should be a wake up call as to the true nature of the situation. A nature and a situation that both the left and the right have never been honest about.
    The purpose of an economy is the support of the population. Tying the support of the population to the vagaries of the business cycle has always been to embrace a risk to the general population which should have been avoided. One builds an economy to carry a population through the biological and the physical needs created by the environment. It is not totally different from an automobile which carries its passengers from point A to point B.

    The point to notice about the two is that the seats in the automobile are isolated from the engine compartment. This is not so with an economy. An economy has most of its seats in the engine compartment and only a few are isolated in comfort away from the noisome center of productive activity. This is a design fault which has never been honestly addressed.
    The right excuses it as an unavoidable necessity while the left has contented itself with throwing in a few cushions now and then. A fundamental redesign has never been seriously contemplated even by the Marxists.

    Production and distribution to the human population are inextricably bound together and have long been considered unavoidable. The fear so engendered has so long been expressed: "Let him work if he would eat!"
    However, production depends on capital as well as labor and consumption depends on both production and, sometimes, imports. In ages in which output depended primarily on labor the above cry had more obvious legitimacy. Production and consumption were so closely tied together both in time and space. Today it is ridiculous to think in such terms with vast production systems stretching across continents.

    Capital is the dominant source of production by far in this age. Now, by this I do not mean labor-capital factor shares, but the obvious fact that capital is the dominant player by far in the physical production of wealth. Much of the wage payment can be attributed to the capital labor works with. A man with a shovel does better than a man shifting dirt by hand. A man with a bulldozer does even better. A bulldozer smart enough to shift dirt on its own would remove the use of labor and its value contribution in the local activity completely.
    For this reason we should not fear so much the use of income supports to labor as a serious threat to the economy because of any reticence of labor to return, but as an opportunity to eliminate an important source of social friction. It is capital that can provide the production needed for any idleness in the work force that may be envisioned. Capital can also reach far beyond such consideration.

    This is a good thing for more seats can be introduced exterior to the engine compartment of the economy. If wage rates were to rise due to government support then substitution of capital for labor is the proper response.
    The support payments are needed now to correct for a very foolish economic action in March; locking down the economy over a foolish medical opinion. But it does offer an opportunity to begin switching the economy away from labor and towards capital while providing incomes which will now, of necessity, and in the future, due to the capital shift, support the population.

    Both the right and left are an extreme danger in this enterprise. The right would deny the idea of general support altogether. The left would embrace it without a commitment to capital formation. It is the fight now boiling between the two which is threatening disaster whoever wins.
    But income support if not generally offered will reasonably cause further crisis and if means to pay for it are not found there will still be crisis. Putting the demands on the back of real capital is the only reasonable way out. The economic future, if there is to be one, belongs to capital.

    The alternative would only be imports which would end in the imperial stripping of the rest of the world to support the United States with the continuing threat of general war even if successful. If unsuccessful we likely would have both war and domestic unrest.
    So put the burden on capital. Begin by raising rates to force the employment of higher return capital and further remove all restrictions on new technology. Continue the support payments indefinitely until they are considered a matter of right. But also chant everywhere: Capital! Capital! Capital! Then put real effort behind the chant."

    The comment is at an article about ongoing support. Trump wants to limit it to $1 trillion. Pelosi wants at least double that.

    Rickards writes a good overview.

    Interesting vid about the road that we are on.

    Last edited by Danny B; 07-12-2020, 03:48 AM.

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  • Danny B
    Everywhere that you look, there is some high mucky-muck person talking about the GREAT RESET. It looks and smells like socialism. Apparently, it isn't that simple.

    "Seriously, nothing of substantial importance is going to default. Unlimited Fed bailouts means unlimited. Forever. And ever.
    We are in, or transitioning to, an entirely new systemic paradigm. Metrics of the past will not behave according to expectations.

    Understanding The Apparent MismatchBetween Current Economic Conditions and the Financial System
    • Existing theories of economics and the financial system cannot match successfully with current conditions.
    • Long term data on stock index breadth, corporate earnings, Treasury yields and S&P 500 dividend yield strongly suggest a fundamental break with the past is in progress.
    • Past economic and financial system models, analytical tools and metrics will have to be entirely reconsidered and reconstructed.
    • The Secular Systemic Shift now underway is so profound and so far-reaching and so all-encompassing that it is probably analogous to the shift occasioned by the Age of Enlightenment, the Scientific Revolution, the American Revolution and (later) the Industrial Revolution.
    Recently, in the wake of the dramatic, catalyzing events associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts have struggled to match the action in the Economy with that of the Financial System. Existing disparities of inequality and maldistribution have been dramatically exacerbated as the financial indices have soared. In no quarter is there found any real explanation for the utter failure of all existent theories to anticipate or explain our current experience. The general reaction is one of befuddled annoyance. Irrespective of viewpoint, left or right, economists and market analysts are trying to figure out why the emergent reality does not conform to their model of how things should be and the default tendency is to wag a finger of blame at the other side of the aisle.
    Let’s examine the current existing views on the mismatch between the economic crisis and the action in the financial system.
    The “Disconnect Theory” retreads the Austrian view that has been around since Nixon first disconnected the dollar from the gold standard. It basically states that action in the Financial System is so far our of whack with the metrics of what are generally perceived to be “The Fundamentals” that, eventually, this disparity will have to collapse in on itself.
    The “Fed Theory” is an extension of the time-honored neo-Keynesian “Don’t Fight the Fed” party line. It abandons any pretense of analysis and advocates for a fully lobotomized world-view. “Don’t bother to make any sense of it at all…cuz Fed”.
    The minority "Fundamentalist Theory" assures us that the action in the Financial System is reflecting something fundamental. Most often that "something" is defined well within the parameters of established economic performance metrics. We are assured that GDP, employment, corporate profits, P/E ratios and other time-honored measures will inevitably reflect the soaring valuations being priced into the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.
    The "Secular Systemic Shift Theory", an outlier minority viewpoint, sees the current period as a transition to a fundamentally new underlying economics requiring a thorough update and revision of all economic theory and a new set of analytical tools. This is a variant on the Strauss/Howe "Fourth Turning" generational shift perspective. While most "Fourth Turning" advocates see the current situation as a transition within the same Capitalist system, the proponents of this view see the present shift as both Secular and Systemic.
    At BullBear Trading, we have been tracking the arrival of a “Secular Shift”, a phenomenon roughly equivalent to the Strauss/Howe “Fourth Turning”, since 2012. In 2018 I started to identify 2020 as the year that the “Shift” would make itself known. The combination of financial and economic crisis, de facto Civil War and de facto major power war between the US and China is the symptomatic manifestation of an underlying fundamental, systemic paradigm shift in progress.
    In a recent essay, “Information is the New Capital”, I began to introduce some elements of a correlated paradigmatic shift into our understanding of Economics and its application to the Financial System. I recommend that readers have a look at that before they dive into the present analysis...

    GO HERE to read the full report:

    This is a comment lifted from Zero Hedge.
    The article is here.

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  • Danny B
    Well, the focus is turning to China.
    The 3 Gorges dam is starting to slide away.

    Evacuations In China As Hubei Dam Begins to Slide; Cities Issue Red Alert

    Just to make matters worse, they have new cases of bubonic plague.
    They have new strains of Corona
    4% of their gold is fake bars. It is claimed that much more of the gold is fake, waiting to be discovered.
    1/3 of their 40,000 dams are shoddy construction
    It has been raining for over 30 days with more on the way,,, Why do I suspect HAARP????
    The bank runs have ALREADY started.
    Keep in mind that all capital is pretty much fungible. China created mountains of liquidity and, much of it flowed to Western markets.

    7/08 White House wants stimulus by August with $1 trillion cap – Epoch Times
    $1 trillion a month seems to be baked in the cake.
    7/08 Brooks Brothers files for bankruptcy, seeks buyer, closes stores – CNBC
    You don't need a suit to work from home.
    7/08 Seattle city council passes tax on big businesses – KUOW
    The CEO of a billion-dollar investment firm said his company is getting out of Seattle just in time.

    California 'Utterly Failing' As 2 Million Residents Waiting For Unemployment Checks
    US Budget Deficit Hits A Record $863 Billion In June, A 100X Increase
    Retail Apocalypse Accelerates - 8,700 Stores Closing, Number Set To Rise

    The American Economy In Four Words: Neofeudal Extortion, Decline, & Collapse

    Our society has a legal structure of self-rule and ownership of capital, but in reality it is a Neofeudal Oligarchy...

    "Stocks Always Go Up" ...Until They Don't
    Powell is pumping as fast as he can

    Now Even Major Defense Firms Are Pushing For COVID Stimulus Money

    Lockheed, Raytheon, BAE Systems?... Because everyone else is lining up at the trough, apparently.
    THAT is what happens when you stop the wars.
    53% Of Restaurants Closed During COVID-Lockdown Have Shuttered Permanently, Yelp Data Shows

    A Potential Crisis In Comex Gold

    It is increasingly possible the gold contract is evolving into deep crisis, and that force majeure might have to be declared if, as seems increasingly inevitable, a wider banking crisis ensues...
    That Chinese gold/tungsten won't help matters.
    Blain: "Pragmatism Is Out The Window, The Days Of Madness Are Upon Us"
    Buy more popcorn.
    Real Estate Expert Warns 'Exodus' From Cities Will Last Two Years
    The coming race wars will speed things up.

    After Sending 1000s Of COVID Patients Into Nursing Homes, New York Blames Deaths On "Infected Staff"
    Explain that to the judge.
    The Madness Of Political Correctness

    "As for the Redskins name, I would suggest they change the name to the 'Foreskins' to better represent their community, paying tribute to the dick heads in Washington DC."

    California Faculty Demands "Free Tuition For All Black, Native, & Indigenous Students"

    ... list of demands for California State University that it says will provide "redress for systemic anti-Black racism in the CSU.”

    Better include guaranteed passing grades for all of them too.

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  • Danny B
    153 'Left-Leaning' Economists Say US Should Continue To Hand Out Free Money Indefinitely
    US Budget Revenue Covered Just 173 Days of Its 2020 Spending

    There is much debate about just printing money to pay bills.
    "Globally, the IMF forecasts that general government budget deficits (ie where tax revenues fall short of government spending) will reach 10% of GDP in 2020, up from 3.7% in 2019.
    As a result, public sector debt levels are expected to exceed anything reached in the last 150 years – including after WW1 and WW2"
    Top economists like Rogoff and Reinhart argued that there was empirical evidence over centuries that showed when public debt ratios were above 90% of GDP, the probability of a financial crash was very high."
    The article goes on to talk all about public debt levels and, the inevitable crash. This falls flat if the new money is created debt-free. The article talks about this but, never differentiates between debt loaded money AND debt-free money.

    "Even more notable has been the unanimity among macroeconomists that massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is the appropriate response to a “wartime” economic emergency."
    This "emergency" is otherwise called AUTOMATION.
    The more extreme Keynesian position that is now popular is that even managing debt levels does not matter. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) reckons that, as long as there is ‘slack’ in the capitalist economy ie. unemployment, governments can spend indefinitely and central banks can support them by ‘printing money’ without any risk of default or financial collapse.
    However, it may not be as simple as that. Calculating whether debt service is sustainable involves several key numbers:

    "So government spending, Keynesian-style, can only be a substitute for failing private investment and consumption for a short while."
    "The ‘evil’ of inflation is even admitted by MMT, if only when full employment is reached and the ‘slack’ in the economy disappears."

    The solution is seen as world socialism. It is creeping in everywhere.
    Armstrong, "They know SOCIALISM is collapsing for they have reached the limit of perpetual borrowing with no intention of ever paying anything off."
    "The Democrats are absolutely desperate to get rid of Trump for they believe they must take control of the entire government and impose their draconian agenda to seize assets, raise taxes to absurd levels, and oppress the people to prevent an uprising. These goals will unleash violence — not a panacea of unlimited power."
    We're all going to be chipped and tracked to extract the maximum amount of taxes.

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  • Danny B
    Funny that the count of "views" of this thread hasn't changed in a long time. I will continue to write to bring clarity to my head,,, if not anyone else.
    The risk of default is moving up the line. "They" have been forced to print to try to save the banks. BUT, the chosenites want to bring it all down so, we can assume that crashing the banks is on the menu. I'll start with China. They moved 300 million plus self-sufficient peasants to the city and, put them to work. They have run out of legitimate things for the to do so, they print money to finance illegitimate projects. Even in America, giga-tons of pixels are generated to finance projects to keep people working when legitimate jobs have disappeared to be done by computer-driven machines.

    The Chinese banking system; Bloomberg,
    "Authorities are seeking to shore up their $41 trillion banking system, which could suffer an 8 trillion yuan increase in bad debt this year, according to S&P Global. Small Chinese banks tracked by UBS Group AG need an estimated $349 billion of fresh capital."
    Keep in mind that the 3 Gorges dam is FAILING right now. Western media will not talk about it because it would be an enormous shock to ALL financial markets.
    "$41 trillion banking system" What could go wrong?

    OK, enough of China. What about American banks?
    Last crash was caused by failures of CDOs. Apparently, the next failure will be caused by failure of CLOs,,,, a close cousin.
    "Despite their obvious resemblance to the villain of the last crash, CLOs have been praised by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for moving the risk of leveraged loans outside the banking system."
    This idiotic mindset claims that everyone but the banks will fail and, the banks will survive. It just doesn't work that way. Defaults move inexorable up the line.
    "Last July, one month after Powell declared in a press conference that “the risk isn’t in the banks,” two economists from the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. depository institutions and their holding companies owned more than $110 billion worth of CLOs issued out of the Cayman Islands alone."
    "The Financial Stability Board, which monitors the global financial system, warned in December that 14 percent of CLOs—more than $100 billion worth—are unaccounted for."

    Very good article,

    "When Zimbabwe suspended trading on its stock exchange last week, James Hove was left with no access to the funds he needs to conduct his business.

    Like many wealthy Zimbabweans, Hove invests in the local stock market. Not for the value he sees in the companies whose stocks trade on it, but as a hedge against surging consumer prices: while annual inflation is running at 786%,"
    Access to money would be a big problem when the banks finally close here.

    7/06 Study shows shielding EMF improves autoimmune disease – GMI
    So, what does that imply for 5G?

    7/07 ‘Falling off a cliff’: Lebanon’s poor borrow to buy bread – Reuters
    Smith completely misses the point. All that money pumped into the upper loop is continuing to provide employment to the lower loop. So what of the upper loop continues to grow richer. As long as some of the money seeps down into jobs.
    7/07 FED’s $10 trillion defends assets of the rich – Michael Hudson
    They have to spend some of it.
    7/07 In the covid-19 economy, you can have a kid or a job, but not both – NY Times
    7/07 ‘Beyond worst nightmares’: Argentina’s child poverty rate soars – Reuters
    7/07 Japan’s household spending slumps by record amount – Reuters Their population is shrinking.
    7/07 World’s largest pension fund loses $165 billion in worst quarter – Yahoo! Yep, Japan sinking beneath the waves.

    7/07 Public pension reckoning delayed with stimulus pumping up stocks – Yahoo!
    MUCH of this pumping is aimed at keeping pension funds solvent.
    7/06 China stokes a stock-market mania, risking repeat of 2015 bubble – Yahoo!
    This is "plan A" AND plan B and, plan C, and plan D
    7/07 The Big Short #2 – World feasts on excessive risk again – Technical Traders
    Plan a,b,c,d,e, and F

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  • Danny B
    Hmmm, everything else erased. Any how, here is a brilliant article from Smith.

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  • Danny B
    Armstrong and pensions.
    REPLY: I have been running the models perhaps hoping for a different outcome but it’s always the same. September to November 2020 is going to see rising tension. It is clear that this virus is being used for political purposes and NEITHER side will accept the result in November. I added a section in the Great Reset which people can pull down as an update where the United Nations is now calling for a one-world government and that all politicians should come together and join under their banner. This is a major political coup that is unfolding on a global scale, but they are focusing on getting rid of Trump so they can include the United States along with Europe.

    PLEASE keep in mind that while the dollar may end up as a safe haven for Europe, DO NOT expect that to last beyond 2 years at best. There is nothing which is permanent as we head into 2032. Even the 2020 election may end up in the Supreme Court.

    This whole thing is a major effort to take over the world economy for all the socialistic programs that are collapsing. Europe has endured 6 years of negative interest rates with no stimulation. They can no longer raise money to fund programs. The days of perpetually borrowing have come to an end. This coup is all about seizing the system for what they see is a global revolution when people realize that everything they counted on from the government will not be there.

    Social Security's annual Trustees Report came out recently, and it showed Social Security ran a gigantic $9 trillion deficit between last year and this year. The system's long-term unfunded liability is now $43 trillion, up from $34 trillion last year."

    "“The ECB is trapped. It cannot raise rates to raise money and it has destroyed its bond market. The only way out is to default on all debt and they will do that by declaring it to be now a perpetual debt"
    Armstrong expects GOV to seize all pensions.

    But fear not. We are heading into a Monetary Crisis of untold proportions. If the governments do not listen, they will create the biggest civil unrest in all of history. This is the collapse of socialism, for they have promised everything, funded nothing

    Last edited by Danny B; 07-05-2020, 05:09 AM. Reason: Mo info

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  • Danny B
    Bastiat; "The State. What is the state? I like Douglass North’s definition of a state as an organization with a comparative advantage in violence extending over a geographic area with boundaries determined by its power to tax. Bastiat goes a step further and lays bare the essence of the state as it would later be analyzed by scholars working in the public choice tradition like Mancur Olson and James M. Buchanan: “The state is the great fiction by which everyone endeavors to live at the expense of everyone else.”

    You must keep in mind that the State has the guns and the lawbooks. When it sees fit, it can twist the laws to it's advantage. The State is a parasite and, must steal it's resources.
    You worked 105 days this year to support a blob state that grows by 6% a year, regardless of work load. Those who live by the generosity of the State are forever fearful of losing support. They earned that support fair & square through correct votes & bribes. 51% of Americans receive a check from the State.
    This "comparative advantage in violence" is what keeps many States in power. There would be problems if you arm the sheep. Many States keep control by the explicit threat of violence against it's constituents (sheep)
    The threat of violence works wonders for keeping people fearful; https://www.*****

    We have reached a point where the whole economy is disintegrating because everyone was robbed. The real, and, potential damage from defaults is moving up the chain of finance.
    The loan delinquency rate follows the unemployment rate. Look at this graph and, it will all be very clear.
    "The world’s central banks are now in the process of outshining both Weimar and Zimbabwe. Together with governments they have globally printed and borrowed $18 trillion since CV started. And since the Great Financial crisis started in 2006 they have more than doubled global debt from $125 trillion to over $275 trillion but that is just the beginning. "
    Equity values have doubled but, earnings are flat. The CBs have to pump ever harder.

    The blob State is running short on money to support the ever increasing blob. They see a State owned crypto currency as the answer.
    "We just released this report which includes, as part of the Great Reset, the push to eliminate paper money to move toward a digital currency world where they can track everything we do and allow for drastic increases in taxation. They have been suddenly justifying this by claiming that viruses can live on surfaces."

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  • Danny B
    I had to post that, not knowing if it would all disappear if I continued.
    More on the subject of leverage & labor.
    "Even more 'unprecedented' is the fact that the two measures of the labor market are expected to diverge dramatically with a 1.35 million increase in new jobless claimants occurring at the same time as the BLS is expected to report an increase of 3.058 million jobs in the US economy."
    The stock market cannot be allowed to crash. Because everybody's retirement and wealth disappears with it. So the Federal Reserve will continue to print money from nothing and buy stock. It's called the Jappification of America.
    This graph shows perfectly what happened when the bankers got rid of the last vestige of the gold standard.
    They got their flexible currency and, we got poverty through price inflation.

    In an expose in the July issue of The Atlantic, he describes how CLOs, a close cousin to CDOs have collapsed in value and are stuffed on bank balance sheets.

    $100B in CLOs are "unaccounted for" according to the Financial Stability Board.

    Worse, the biggest banks are stuffed with over a trillion in off-balance sheet debt hidden in variable interest entities (VIEs).

    JPMorgan alone has $651 billion stuck in off-balance sheet credit card debt.

    This Pandemic Is A Politician's Dream Come True

    ...they have a free pass to create limitless quantities of money to pay for whatever pet project they want. Universal basic income? Print money. Free healthcare? Print money. New roads? Print money.

    Stunning Surge In New CMBS Delinquencies Heralds Commercial Real Estate Disaster
    Everyone is working from home. We don't need no stinkin office space.

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