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  • Danny B
    replied
    Confidence,,, gold,, domestic crypto

    Everybody with half a brain concedes that the system will blow. These 1/2 wits all believe that they will get out in time.
    "I am wondering if, with the ECM ( economic confidence model) turning down on 11/24-11/15/17, if the U.S. stock market could potentially follow the ECM down into 2020?"
    "We have most likely extended the entire process when we passed the 97-month mark last April. The entire Roaring ’20s was only a 97-month bull market. That means we can move to the second type of Vertical Market which I call the Plateau Move."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...-plateau-move/

    "However, money will NEVER shift from the stock market all into gold. Everyone has their pet investment in what they feel comfortable. Gold is a retail product – not institutional. The Institutions can trade ETFs, gold stocks etc., but they will never take possession of gold."
    Armstrong seems to believe that the paper-gold market will never blow. If the R.O.W. refuses our Treasury paper and demands gold for trade settlement, the paper gold market will most certainly blow.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...-than-dollars/
    "What we are facing in truth is a currency reset. That means that ALL tangible assets rise against the currency in whatever country we are talking about."
    Sadly, this is a false statement. Discretionary spending and luxury spending will slow way down. This will hold down the price of luxury stuff. Even more important, if the price of energy goes up, this will drag down the sales of everything except necessities.

    Everybody is scraping around for a little extra money;
    "for Tenex to buy Uranium One had to be approved by nine federal agencies and signed off on by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which she did shortly after her husband Bill Clinton was paid $500,000 to give a speech in Moscow sponsored by a Russian bank. The Clinton Foundation also received millions of dollars in “charitable” donations"
    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...oward+Kunstler

    Oregon has some new taxes for people who refuse to adequately support the highway system. The higher mileage your car gets,,,, the more taxes you pay. Electric cars pay a chunk too. They even plan to tax bicycles.
    https://kobi5.com/news/63605-63605/

    Repost, "Once each nation has its Cryptocurrencies in place, they can “align” them, and virtually abolish all economic buffers and barriers"
    "At the right moment, the governments will swoop in, regulate, and tax these Cryptocurrencies."
    "The power lies in the receipt, the payment receipt showing where you obtained that product and how you obtained it…all based on POS (point of sale), the electronic monitoring of every expenditure at the register. The “successful” employment of Cryptocurrency will mean that the people have been completely duped and have handed all privacy into the control of the government. "
    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...utor=Mac+Slavo

    The State is an enormous mass of bureaucrats who are perpetually on the prowl for more tax money to sustain their growing numbers and appetites. The West has the capacity to be hugely productive but, it doesn’t have the means to be hugely consumptive. The public debt is growing faster than exponentially. The collapse will cause a currency reset. This is probably planned at some level. It isn't likely to work.
    A low-wage & high-price economy will never escape the economic doldrums. The rising price of carbon energy and the falling birthrate will just drag everything down. If we implemented free energy and got rid of the military, we still have the problem of a falling birth rate. "They" can drag in all the garbage from hellholes worldwide but, many of the people are net consumers and not producers. Without debt-free money, we just continue to slide down.

    The debt is growing exponentially just to keep us "running in place". After the reset, we will have to actually pay for our imports. We may very well have a domestic crypto currency but, nobody outside the country will accept it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Nervous billionares,,,repeat of 1987,,

    The upper loop meets the lower loop in real estate. The hot money has gone into property. This has priced out buyers who aren't in the upper loop. The same things is starting to happen to renters.
    Vacant Property Rates Soar In Over Half Of US
    1 In 5 American Renters Missed A Pmt In Past 3 Months

    A very good article on contagion, "The Nightmare Scenario" Revisited: Albert Edwards Lays Out The Next "Black Monday" | Zero Hedge

    "Billionaires’ fortunes increased by 17% on average last year "
    But, they are starting to get nervous, https://www.theguardian.com/business...-swells-to-6tn
    Since the CBs bought up every dip to make everything rise, volatility has died and been replaced by complacency. Albert Edward's investors believe that everything will be great for at least the next 18 months.
    "what my community, nation, and the entire world face: volatility made worse by inertia. In other words, the longer we choose to ignore inconvenient truths the greater will be their negative impacts. "
    "Despite per capita income one quarter that of New Zealand (ranked 38th of 140) and one fifth that of the US (108th of 140) Costa Rica matches many Scandinavian countries in terms of equality, wellbeing, life expectancy and ecological impact.

    As Jason Hickel of the Guardian recently put it, “Costa Rica proves that rich countries could theoretically ease their consumption by half or more while maintaining or even increasing their human development indicators.”
    Keep in mind that in 1948 Costa Rica declared that they didn't intend to have any wars. They disbanded the army. Get rid of the military and there would be lots more for the average person.

    I have to post several comments.
    "That’s interesting. Volatility is, by markets, the lowest ever on record. Volatility for people is also low: it’s a steady, inexorable, unchanging collapse downward."
    "Are people really irrational? We have a name for perfectly rational people: psychopaths. They behave with perfect logic. Is someone in the way of your promotion? Ruin their reputation and get them fired. Want to sleep with someone? Lie to them. Are there too many people on earth? Kill a couple billion with well-planned, perfectly rational policies. Are profits low? Start a war. Obviously. "

    "It’s the “irrational” part that makes humans “human.” The part where we keep old people alive after they’re productive, keeps infants and young disabled alive and their lives better when it costs society and ourselves personally. It’s part of adding that intangible, undefinable “humanity” that drives the panoply of psychopaths at the top crazy.
    It’s why they hate our guts, mock us, and try to kill us every day: we’re stinking up their perfect world, the perfect vision of the Junkers, the Barosos, and Merkels, the Lenins, Che’s, and Pol Pots. They see our irrationality as “weakness”, when in fact it’s part of an innate human culture, innate human strength they can never understand, and causes them to lose to those idiotic, deplorable, mud-stained commoners time and time again. "

    "most people are irrational.” NO! most people behave irrationally and they do so because they have little to no access to the critical, accurate information they would need to act rationally, combined with the fact that they must focus ALL of their efforts to make money or else they and their loved ones suffer and die.

    Absolutely every suggestion or solution that those in the know present threatens ones potential to make money. Even those pointing out the predicaments, making the suggestions and proposing solutions are only doing so if and when they can still make money doing so. This is why eventually everyone gives up on the “DOOM” and goes back to focusing on making money."

    "I know because I have been there, done that, and watched dozens of others do this. I saw it in the 60s, 70s with the conservation movement, ecology movement, Peace & Love movement.

    Until we address the issue of NO MONEY – YOU DIE! "

    "Obama to Pope Francis agree the greatest threats facing humanity are climate change and wealth inequality.”

    The author has identified Obama and Francis as credible sources. By doing so, he undermines his own credibility. Everything said by Obama and Francis is agenda driven. These men never state the truth unless it happens to fit their agendas. That’s the nature of power."
    https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...y-on-steroids/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Global pot flows,, ransomware,,hot money

    "Allen said there are more than 50,000 pot farms in California, and as many as 15,000 in Sonoma County. "
    Dozens of pot farms burn down in California wildfires - Oct. 20, 2017
    This big growth in domestic pot production is having quite an effect on foreign competition. The Mexican drug producers are losing market share.
    24,000 Homicides: Mexico On Pace For Most Violent Year In History As Drug Wars Spiral Out Of Control | Zero Hedge

    Malware is growing faster than anyone could have predicted. States are gradually shifting from kinetic warfare to cyber warfare.
    Bad Rabbit Ransomware Spreads: "This Is A Targeted Attack.. On Critical Infrastructure" | Zero Hedge
    10/26 New ransomware linked to NotPetya sweeps Russia and Ukraine – Wired Round up the usual suspects.

    The FED pumped in all that hot money but, ZIRP made it all but impossible to get any returns. As yield disappears, the hot money flows into stocks. Now that stocks have peaked, it is flowing into other asset classes.
    10/27 Luxury homes can’t keep up with high demand – CNBC
    10/25 US new home sales soar to highest level in a decade – ABC News
    10/27 Amazon soars above $1,000 after smashing expectations – Zero Hedge

    Hot money may bump up some areas but, it doesn't do much good for the average person. It gradually bleeds over into prices but, NOT wages.
    "The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5% aren't very compelling to anyone pursuing common-sense risk management."

    "2. Value flows to what's scarce. As economist Michael Spence and his colleagues have noted, conventional capital--the kind issued by central banks and private banks--is not scarce and therefore has little value. Ditto for conventional labor. This is why the returns on conventional capital and labor are so low."
    "So any investment in health will pay extremely high dividends. It doesn't take a ton of cash to invest in one's health; most of the investment is behavioral."
    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Where To Invest When (Almost) Everything's in a Bubble

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Saving the banks,,, Reaper,,, QT,, 10 year rising

    After Great Depression I, congress passed the Glass-Steagal act separating savings banks from investment banks. Slick Willie came along and pushed the Graham-Leachy bill that allowed the savings banks to reunite with investment banks. Europe has just refused to separate savings banks from investment banks. Banks are just not growing and have reached an apex. They are headed down AND, they are going to take your money as they slip-slide into hell. Your deposit in the bank is considered an investment in that bank. When they go down, you can forget about trying to recoup your money.
    Senate Repeals Rule Letting Americans File Class-Action SuitsAgainst Financial Firms
    "Wednesday’s vote came under Congressional Review Act provisions, letting a House and Senate majority overturn an executive branch regulation within 60 legislative days of its adoption." The long, long reach of the swamp.
    "Neocon Mike Pence broke a 50-50 Senate tie, a giveaway to Wall Street crooks"

    So, just what is the purpose of Reaper? Will it mine BTC? Will it be used to bring down everything?
    The Next Cyber Hurricane Is Coming And It'll Take Down The Internet | Zero Hedge

    "Put simply, the above charts are a MAJOR warning that the bond bubble is in serious trouble. Central Banks are now cornered: either they stop printing money and let stocks collapse... or they continue to print money, unleash inflation, and pop the bond bubble."
    "The problem with this, is that in order to create this bubble, they had to print trillions of dollars worth of money and use this money to buy bonds. And that money printing (now to the tune of $15 trillion) has unleashed inflation.

    Why is this a problem?

    Because inflation makes bond prices FALL as bond yields rise to accommodate the higher inflation rate. And when bond prices fall, the bond bubble bursts."
    "Worst of all, the 10-Year Treasury has already broken its bull market trendline running back to previous credit cycle peak in 2007."
    Central Banks Are Now Cornered | Zero Hedge
    The foreign capital inflows have gone into equities, NOT sovereign bonds. The State drove down interest rates to make their debt service easier. At the same time, these low rates precluded them from attracting capital. Both Draghi and Yellen are talking about Quantative Tightening. The 10 year treasury has broken support. QT will only make it worse.

    The recovery has definitely helped those closest to the money spigot. Income has crashed and with it, the fertility rate. GREAT graphs.
    https://econimica.blogspot.com/2017/...t-for-who.html
    "Many have a hard time comprehending that if the money supply increases, how can there be deflation? It is always the bottom-line. If you keep raising taxes, you will reduce the standard of living, and that in turn comes back and results in lower economic activity."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/h...as-taxes-rise/
    The everything card, https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...tos-move-over/

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    QT... falling credit demand,,,Chinese gamble

    Super Mario Draghi is pumping in Euros2 billion a day into Eurozone bonds.
    "ECB announces that from January its quantitative easing programme will be reduced from a rate of €60bn-a-month to €30bn-a-month"
    "Although profits at the bank more than doubled on last year, climbing to €933m (£829m) for the period following major cost cuts, there was no sign of growth in its investment bank – an area investors are losing patience over.

    According to the lender, revenues in its corporate and investment bank fell almost a quarter on last year to to €3.5bn during the three months to Sep 30 "reflecting muted client activity"
    Lending is down but, profits doubled. Something stinks.
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/european-...073014158.html

    "The market cap of equities is 139% of GDP. For comparison, it was 66% of GDP in 1987 before the Dow dropped 23% in just one day."
    "But the greatest bubble in the history of bubbles resides in the sovereign bond market. The incredible $8 trillion in negative yielding sovereign debt and the unfathomable $1.6 trillion in corporate debt with a yield less than 0% has pushed stocks and real estate investors into a yield-chasing frenzy."
    "For 2017, the Q1 year-over-year earnings was 14.5%, Q2 came in at 11%, but FACT Set is projecting Q3 will come in at a paltry 1.7% yoy earnings growth." It can only go down from here. It seems that you need consumers to actually have earnings.
    Lemmings in Full Gallup Towards Cliff | Michael Pento | Safehaven.com
    "S&P said in a report on Tuesday that consumer credit — which constitutes borrowing like car finance and credit cards — has climbed over £200 billion this year"
    S&P: UK consumer debt boom raises 'red flags' as cre - Business Insider PARTY ON.

    Chinese president Xi at one time worked on a farm feeding pigs. In his quest for power and wealth, he may have overstepped good sense. He will be forced to devalue the Yuan. It remains to be seen if he can maintain confidence in Chinese debt and markets.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Education,,, warnings from the PBOC and IMF

    America dumbed down the schools to make the electorate more controllable. Europe is bringing in boatloads of trash to comply with the Kalergi Plan and break up all cultural unity. The plan calls for an electorate that is brown and stupid.
    BUT, Pox Americana depends on technical advances to stay ahead of it's competitors. American students are falling way behind many other States. China is pressing ahead with education and advancement as fast as it can. America has a huge military budget. What about Japan?
    10/25 Japan’s Abe vows to put education spending before budget balance – Reuters
    The Orientals put a huge emphasis on education. We will continue to fall behind.

    The lower loop meets the upper loop in housing because it is considered such a good store of value.
    10/25 US new home sales soar to highest level in a decade – ABC News
    This is where some of the hot money is flowing. Select cities are priced way out of reach of the working class.
    The new twit in New Zealand is going to cut off the hot money there. Wait and see. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...gners-get-out/

    In the long, long push towards socialism, there is a rising cry that capitalism just doesn’t work.
    CBI ex-boss says capitalism not working - BBC News
    It's true that crony-capitalism combined with the welfare state doesn't work.

    "Hidden almost all the way in the end of the first chapter of the IMF's latest Financial Stability Report, is a surprisingly candid discussion on the topic of whether "Rising Medium-Term Vulnerabilities Could Derail the Global Recovery", which is a politically correct way of saying is the financial system on the verge of crashing."
    "ominously admits that "concerns about a continuing buildup in debt loads and overstretched asset valuations could have global economic repercussions" and - in modeling out the next crash, pardon "dislocation" - the IMF conducts a "scenario analysis" to illustrate how a repricing of risks could "lead to a rise in credit spreads and a fall in capital market and housing prices," About that house that you bought with hot money,,,

    "A sudden uncoiling of compressed risk premiums, declines in asset prices, and rises in volatility would lead to a global financial downturn." financial FART
    "Thus, the second phase begins with a rapid decompression of credit spreads and declines of up to 15 and 9 percent in equity and house price"
    Most of the report is watered down BS. Here Is The IMF's Global Financial Crash Scenario | Zero Hedge
    The IMF postulates a drop in lending as setting things off.
    "As the following chart of year over year lending growth shows, this metric has turned negative during or immediately following every formal recession since 1948. Furthermore, at no point since 1948 has lending slowed to the level that is is at today and not subsequently turned negative amid a recession."
    Commercial and Industrial Credit Growth is Still Slowing - The Sounding Line

    "China’s Central Bank just warned of a major collapse in asset values. This was done after a reserve requirement cut. "
    The required reserves are cut back when there isn't enough cash in the system. NOT a good sign.
    The Weekly Perspective with David Morgan for October 22nd, 2017 « Financial Survival Network
    The oil industry is rapidly going bankrupt. GOV is rushing through some new leases for drilling in Alaska. Keep in mind that oil from the Naval Reserve couldn't arrive here for at least 7 years. The current pipeline is a long ways away from the new leases and the current pipeline is in bad shape from sand in the oil abrading the pipes.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-...-idUSL2N1N02OP

    So, the PBOC warns of a crash in assets. The IMF warns of a crash in Assets. But, the hot money just keeps flowing in. Armstrong said that a strong dollar will crash the R.O.W.
    Evidently, those in the House of Saud got hold of some bad weed, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi...175000431.html

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    WW III and cyberwar

    Just in case you wondered why we can't even talk to each other ,,,,oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: How Much of our Discord Is the Result of the "Engagement" Advert Revenue Model of Social Media?

    China Leads The Quantum Race While The West Plays Catch Up
    https://www.forbes.com/.../china-lea...t-plays-catch-
    China's New Supercomputer Puts the US Even Further Behind | WIRED
    https://www.wired.com/2016/06/fastes...ay-taihulight/
    Quantum Computing Would Make Today's Encryption Obsolete ...
    https://www.bloomberg.com/.../quantu...y-s-encryption...

    Moving on;
    10/25 The next cyber hurricane is coming and it’ll take down the internet – SHTF Plan
    10/23 US warns public about attacks on energy, industrial firms – CNBC
    10/22 The Reaper IoT botnet has already infected a million networks – Wired
    10/21 Frustrated senators demand cyber war strategy from Trump – TheHill
    I'd be willing to bet that Trump can't write code. Congress originates spending. Why don't THEY come up with a plan?
    "Cyberattacks are happening in 2017 at double the rate that they occurred in 2016"
    "World War III is underway, and it’s cyber… timeline ad infinitum."
    https://cybersecurityventures.com/ha...e-report-2016/
    America desperately needs to develop quantum computing but, what will that do to stop State efforts to intercept all data?

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Austerity cripples.., $1/2 quadrillion in debt instruments

    Europe is on death watch. The idiots in Germany like Wolfgang Schäuble insist on Austerity because they are so petrified of a repeat of the Weimar hyperinflation. They just don't understand the fact that it is a whole different game today.
    "Europe is trapped in similar orthodoxy to that of their prewar forebears. In Germany, they hold the firm belief that inflation is the greatest evil to inflict humankind. Yet the ECB has mastermind the greatest monetary expansion in history without success of stimulating anything. The policy of quantitative easing has been done only at the government level as taxes and tax enforcement has risen and thereby the people and consumption have been totally ignored for fear of inflation. This approach has created an economic nightmare that actually threatens to bankrupt the ECB."

    QE for the State and nothing for the lower loop.
    "They do not flinch even when a quarter of high street shops close. They are like doctors laying the sick in the snow to see who will survive. Yet they hurl cash at friendly bankers and watch it vanish into the maws of directors and offshore speculators."
    "Worse, Europe’s drawn-out austerity is undermining the very authority required to enforce it. When governments fall, no package can be enforced. Greece was forced last month into de facto default. Who would now buy a Spanish bond? What is the value of a Dutch finance minister? What price Nicolas Sarkozy’s signature on a bailout deal? "

    "They have driven Greece into chaos and Spain into severe depression, with half its youth now unemployed. The Eurocrats do not care. Their incomes are secure. They dance only round the euro and claim its blood sacrifice. "
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ing-the-1930s/

    It's a very strange world where high-risk bonds are trading at the same rate as U.S. Treasuries, http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...023_gund_0.jpg
    It is impossible to say just how long the Cbs can keep interest artes down, Gundlach: "The Order of The Financial System Is About To Be Turned Upside Down" | Zero Hedge

    "This means the on and off balance sheet assets for Chinese banks total 232 trillion plus 253 trillion." Just keep in mind that these assets are debt notes.
    "The absolute size and growth of assets imply there will be enormous (as in Biblical) costs to deleverage."
    " by 2025, China will have financial system assets equal to approximately 1,900% of nominal GDP"
    " To provide some perspective, residential real estate in China is 38% more expensive on a price per square foot basis (than U.S.) but nominal per capita GDP in the United States is 608% higher. " Simple, the Chinese can't afford to buy a Chinese house.
    Everything We Think We Know About Chinese Finances is Wrong | Balding's World

    10/24 Andrew Hoffman – bitcoin to infinity? – FSN He sounds like Buzz Lightyear
    10/23 Why EVs will come faster than most of us think – Energy and Carbon Why grid failure will come faster than we think.
    10/24 China and US square off in race to master quantum computing – McClatchy DC I wish both of them good luck. We'll finally get some good encryption.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Capital inflows and the stock market

    Armstrong made it clear that you can't understand the economy if you don't understand international capital flows. Chinese capital is inflating the price of houses from Vancouver to Melbourne.
    I can only make things just so simple. I can only break them down just so far. There is too much complexity.

    Global wages have been massacred. The velocity of money has stalled out. The ultra rich have all the money but, they do little in the way of consumption. The consumptive loop is starved for consumption. The speculative loop can't do anything but,,, more speculation. The CBs just keep printing more debt money to make up for the profits that are not being realized.

    It's not so much that wage inequality is BAD. The problem is that many millions of people don't even have enough to eat. The poverty rates are climbing fast.
    "total U.S. household net worth, and every quarter for the past two years this number has steadily gone up, hitting fresh all time highs with every new release, most recently $96.2 trillion"
    "bottom 90%, who remain largely locked out from such gains."
    "Today, none other than Bridgewater's Ray Dalio focuses on this topic, which he calls "the most important economic, political and social issue of our time", and defines it as "the two US economies"...
    "America, some 50% of households, own just 1% of the country's wealth, down from 3% in 1989"
    "Since 1980, median household real incomes have been about flat,"

    "Only about a third of the bottom 60% saves any of its income (in cash or financial assets). As a result, according to a recent Federal Reserve study, most people in this group would struggle to raise $400 in an emergency."
    Americans, in particular, are very poor at saving for retirement. Uncle Sam came along and demanded part of our wages so, he could do the saving for us. Uncle Sam became entranced with the idea of empire and, he spent all of our savings. We don't even have a decent rail system.

    "Death rates are rising and mental and physical health is deteriorating for those in the bottom 60%. For those in the bottom 60%, premature deaths are up by about 20% since 2000. The biggest contributors to that change are an increase in deaths by drugs/poisoning (up two times since 2000) and an increase in suicides (up over 50% since 2000). "
    Ray Dalio: "This Is The Most Important Economic, Political And Social Issue Of Our Time" | Zero Hedge
    Ray says that "we" need to do a big wealth transfer, https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/10/23/...ealth-gap.html

    Global capital flows;
    Here is a long, well thought out article explaining why stock markets are safer than bond markets.
    October 2017 IceCap Global Outlook - "Should I Stay or Should I Go?" - IceCap Asset Management Be aware that the article is full of lies.
    We know that stock markets are on a tear upwards. Could this continue?
    The Swiss national bank recently bought $80 billion of U.S. stocks.
    Armstrong, "Our Capital Flow models have been spot on showing the strength of the rally in the Dow is driven by foreign inflows."
    "Welcome to the Vertical Market. This is like a party where everyone is drunk, nobody is having a good time, and they just can’t remember exactly how they ended up here.

    The crisis building in Europe is having a profound impact as real money starts to move."
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m.../dow-the-euro/
    The U.S. stock market is attracting capital because it is the best looking horse in the glue factory. What about the worst looking horse?
    Macron plans to TAX the snot out of everything in Europe. Don't forget that every additional Euro of tax diminishes the producing economy by about 3 Euros.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ralize-europe/
    NOBODY in the financial sector will buy European bonds. That explains a lot of the capital flight.

    "commercial traders (“smart money”) have a record number of short positions in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.23% At the same time, noncommercial traders (“dumb money”) have a record number of long positions." YEP, SHEEP TO THE SLAUGHTER.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sma...ons-2017-10-18

    So, will the foreign inflows allow the market to keep going up for a while?

    Venezuela has two big bond payments in the next few days. "The collateral against the bond is Citgo, PDVSA's Houston-based refining and retail subsidiary."
    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/10/23/...miss-bill.html
    The Chinese prefer land and RE as a store of value. Their savings were channelled into RE and now, there are many millions of commercial and residential buildings that nobody can afford to occupy. The Chinese GOV has a solution.
    10/23 China’s govt expected to buy 24% of residential real estate in 2017 – Zero Hedge

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Blockchain and the Mafia

    Putin was adamantly against crypto currency. One week later, he did an about face and endorsed them. The blockchain promises "perfect" transparency and accountability. Who would that hurt?
    https://sputniknews.com/radio_burnin...2191016060718/

    The SDR was created in the 70s and never caught on. An SDR, just like gold is NOT expansive. Paper-gold was created in the early 80s so that the gold supply could be expanded. BTC is VERY expansive and holds great interest of traders. BTC is the beta-test for CB crypto currencies. There are currently about 1,000 coins. They perform different functions. This is in addition to the various functions of the blockchain that could be integrated into contracts and finance.
    As each application is attracted to it's best niche in the physical economy, it will stabilize. After a "certain" level of stability is reached, that application / niche will be transferred to State control.

    The State always writes the rules in IT'S favor. The State isn't going to give up taxing authority. As transactions move to the blockchain, organized crime will find it ever-more difficult to take a cut. HOW DO YOU SHAKE-DOWN SOMEBODY IN A CASHLESS ECONOMY? Now do you pay bribes if all transactions are recorded on the blockchain?

    Chinese exporters sell / ship 1,000 widgets and bill the receiver for $1 million. They true price is only $1/2 million. The receiver credits the sellers overseas account for $ 1/2 million. This is the main way that money is transferred offshore. The blockchain will make even this more difficult.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Automatic Earth

    All I can say is; read the article AND every word of the comments.
    https://www.theautomaticearth.com/20...-merely-dying/
    The comments carry as much import as the article.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Bots,,, using the blockchain to combat fraud

    Max Keiser does a rant about artificial intelligence wiping out employment in the finance industry. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHgbAh0jgNs
    He isn't the only one who sees a future where the best man for the job is a machine.
    EquBot has been let loose. The sequence of pictures are priceless.
    First A.I. ETF Claims It Can Replace An Army Of Research Analysts | Zero Hedge
    AlphaGo Zero will soon make all of our puny efforts look even punier, Google creates AI that can teach itself and 'isn't constrained by the limits of human knowledge' | The Independent

    Even captain Kirk had big problems like this, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzuIijxHBh0

    Manna, " "Yesterday the people controlled the computers. Now the computers control the people. You are the eyes and hands for this robot. "
    Manna, Chapter 1, by Marshall Brain



    "That’s the real issue with Keynesianism. The big crash of 1987 was considered a “6 sigma” event, an event so rare that, on a daily basis, you’d expect to see it every few billion years or so. The big Nasdaq crash in 2000 was another 6 sigma event. The big crash in 2008 was another 6 sigma event…all but impossible to believe happened."

    "Academia is suddenly worried about somebody teaching heresy in economics."
    All those dogs not barking are really bothering me. A university can commit $1,000,000 a year to fight racism in response to a “hate crime” that never happened…and silence. Our universities can have dozens of $250,000 a year vice presidents of Diversity working hard to start riots…and silence. Campuses can spend millions teaching students about deviant sexual practices…and silence. I’ve documented many cases of many millions of dollars being spent on ridiculously detrimental things and my blog is about the only place to complain about the clear misuse of funds…everyplace else is silent.

    But set up a department to research a way to prosperity that doesn’t involve enriching the political caste, paid for with money not even coming from the government (though it’s fair to ask where Koch got his money), and 176 admin and faculty complain."

    China and Russia;
    " If you read the fine print, the Russian government is moving in to tax and regulate it, at a rate of 13% on trades for profit, as well as “Crypto-Rubles” that suddenly appear out of nowhere.

    It won’t affect the Black Market as much, because 13% is going to be paid to turn a blind eye to the billions of rubles being stolen by the Russian Mafia and oligarchy alike. The gimmick here is for the government to take a chunk out of it: for now. The reason “now” is being used, is that eventually they’ll shift gears, pass legislation, and eventually outlaw private trading in it that is not government-sanctioned or government-approved."
    http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-new...of-it_10202017

    China, "For example, if the government plans to subsidize certain farms, say some corn farms, to support this sector of agriculture, they can directly add a certain amount of money to the wallets of some farms, for instance 100 million dollars and program this money to be sent to certain fertilizer merchants at a certain time, and that each can only spend maximum of 10 million dollars per year, and in this way, they can make sure that the farmers won’t squander the windfalls, and that this money won’t flow to other sectors, for instance, the stock market or real estate market."
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-backed-crypto

    The Russian example is specifically about taxing.
    The Chinese example is specifically about blocking corruption.

    "We’re still so early, that much about what people are saying and writing about crypto is more theory than fact. Lots of people (including me) compare the the crypto bubble to the Internet bubble. "
    2. Bitcoin Is A Confidence Game, Utility Tokens Are Awesome But Legally Challenging, Security Tokens Are Going To Be Huge
    "This post in Blockchain Hub gives a great detailed overview of the three types of blockchains — public blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum), federated blockchains (like R3 and EWF), and private blockchains (e.g. platforms like Multichain)."
    "This TED Talk is the best explanation of why Blockchain is going to change the world (spoiler alert… it’s about trust)."

    "Governments and businesses have largely functioned via centralization. Someone or some organization sits in the middle, making the rules, and taking a toll (either taxes or fees) for providing a function. We can now leverage technology, take out the middleman, and enable highly functional decentralized entities (like bitcoin).

    Take life insurance. I believe, in the future, through smart contracts and the blockchain, decentralized structures will provide life insurance, saving buyers of life insurance the $10’s of billions of tolls (sales commissions, profits, …) that insurance companies takes for sitting in the middle."
    Top high margin industries, https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/...b0ShprxVFA.png
    https://hackernoon.com/8-thoughts-on...e-448b916138b8

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    Greed/fear index,,,pensions,,, insurance premiums,,,Kunstler

    "The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers have been tracking consumers and their expectations about the direction of the stock market over the next year.
    We are now at an all-time high in the expectation that the stock market will go up."
    By "we" he means retail investors. The institutional investors have left the scene.
    "Only a few weeks ago the CNN Fear & Greed Index topped out at 98. It has since retreated from such extreme greed levels to merely high measures of greed. Understand, the CNN index is not a sentiment index; it uses seven market indicators that show how investors are actually investing. I actually find it quite useful to look at every now and then.

    The chart below, which Doug Kass found on Zero Hedge, pretty much says it all. Economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high, yet uncertainty about the future of the markets is at an all-time low."
    It's the Koolaide.
    MAULDIN: Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History | Mauldin Economics

    "Take for example the hundreds of trillions of dollars-worth of underfunded entitlement and pension promises. Those promises cannot be kept and they cannot be paid. Everybody with a basic comprehension of math can conclude as such.

    Yet we continue to operate as if the opposite were true. We comfort ourselves that, somehow, all the promised future payouts will be made in full -- even though the funds are insolvent"

    Congress approves plan to allow pension cuts (Dec 2014)
    273,000 union workers and retirees brace for pension cuts (May 2, 2016)
    In unprecedented move, pension plan cuts benefits promised to retirees (Jan 27, 2017) -- note the laughable use of "unprecedented" here
    Teamsters face 31 percent pension cut (Mar 7, 2017)
    New York State Teamsters pension fund cuts approved (Sept 13, 2017)

    "Health care premiums for 2018 set to go up by as much as 50 percent

    Oct 5, 2017

    Several states have announced rates for health insurance premiums on the Obamacare exchanges for 2018. Topping the list is Georgia, with rates that are 57 percent higher than last year"
    "The average family health care insurance premium in 2016 was $18,764"
    https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...infuriated-yet
    As long as the military is well funded, the rest doesn't matter.
    "The United States marks the 16th anniversary of the war in Afghanistan. A new report shows the federal government may have misplaced $21 trillion in the last two decades. "
    https://www.rt.com/shows/watching-th...s-anniversary/

    "Behind all the smoke, mirrors, Trump bluster, Schumer fog, and media mystification about the vaudeville act known as The Budget and The Tax Cut, both political parties are fighting for their lives and the Deep State knows that it is being thrown overboard to drown in red ink. "
    Will that be ink or blood?
    "Alas, Mr. Trump has not constructed a coherent strategy for defeating the colossus of fakery that drives the nation ever-deeper toward the cold and dark."
    "The revolution to come out of this frozen swamp of irresponsibility will be the messiest and most incoherent in world history."
    Into the Cold and Dark - Kunstler

    More Kunstler, "referring to that the other day. We are entering a slot of time where an awful lot of things might go wrong. What gets me is seeing the stock markets make new record highs every other day, whether Puerto Rico is destroyed overnight or hundreds of people are shot in a Las Vegas parking lot — and notwithstanding the overall phony-baloney condition of the American economy, with half of the flyover population in an opiate daze, and chain-stores shuttering to the tune of 10,000 this year, and car leases expiring into a car market dependent on liar loans bundled into janky securities, and the debt problem festering away like a something dead under the floor boards."
    Light It Up - Kunstler

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    China following Japan

    China, President Xi took over in 2012, knowing that a party congress would occur in 2017.
    "Xi and Chinese leadership are battening down the hatches. Recall that less than two years ago the Chinese Bubble was at the brink. It was Xi and his “national team” that took incredible measures to reverse a dynamic of collapsing markets and exodus from the Chinese currency. In short, confronting an inconveniently timed bust, they resorted to stoking their historic Bubble."
    "There has been as well a couple more years of historic compounding Credit growth. "
    "Credit growth accelerated into the communist party congress. Chinese Total Social Financing (total non-governmental Credit) expanded a stronger-than-expected $277 billion during September. Year-to-date Total Social Financing growth of $2.375 TN is running 16.3% above last year’s record pace. Lending was led by booming demand for household real estate purchases. Total Chinese Credit could surpass $4.0 TN in 2017, easily outdoing U.S. Credit growth at the height of our mortgage finance bubble. "
    Credit Bubble Bulletin
    President Xi inflated the snot out of credit, planning to survive until he could consolidate his power in the congress.. Here is a graph of actual growth.
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...rowth-rate.png
    "For example, the rise of the shadow banking system, which operates beyond the regulations, is worrisome. Its share of total credit soared from 10 percent in 2006 to 33 percent currently, leading to an excessive risk-taking and unjustified valuations of different assets, especially real estate.
    Another alarming but linked problem is the level of debt. China’s total non-financial sector debt – which includes household, corporate and government debt – was 242 percent in 2016 "
    Chinese Economy and Gold :: The Market Oracle ::
    China's real gdp is crashing and, coincidently, China's labor force is shrinking. http://conceptnewscentral.com/wordpr...rs-decline.jpg
    Xi is going to have his hands full trying to grow the economy while the population is falling.

    Leave a comment:


  • Danny B
    replied
    BTC and some kind of new reality,,

    Re: Why Cryptocurrency Is a Perfect Vehicle for Crime
    It is arguable that the state is the biggest criminal of all. The bankers are probably second. They have completely vertically integrated drug production and distribution. The result,
    "Heroin-related deaths increased 439% from 1999 to 2014. As of 2014, heroin-related deaths had more than tripled in five years and quintupled in 10 years."
    This is America on drugs: A visual guide - CNN
    As long as the bankers and CIA are running the drug business, I'm not particularly worried about criminals using BTC.
    How a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug ...
    https://www.theguardian.com

    Flooring politicians, lawyers and investigators all over the world, the U.S. Justice Department granted a total walk to executives of the British-based bank HSBC for the largest drug-and-terrorism money-laundering case ever. Yes, they issued a fine – $1.9 billion, or about five weeks' profit – but they didn't extract so much as one dollar or one day in jail from any individual, despite a decade of stupefying abuses.

    I can easily forget about the threat of criminals using BTC.

    Moving on, The articles on the net are getting more and more analytical about BTC. They are getting more and more interesting.
    This guy REALLY knows his stuff, "95% of cryptocurrencies are scams."
    "First there was barter. Then there was gold. Gold first solved many of the problems of barter (reducing thousands of exchange rates to just a few). Then there was paper money/bank money/fiat money. Paper money solved many of the problems of gold (e.g. as a store of wealth that you can travel with, or as a transaction mechanism for large transactions).

    Now there are cryptocurrencies. And cryptocurrencies are solving major problems in fiat money (no centralized control, lack of human error, no forgery, privacy, etc etc)."
    "Back to the main point: the $200 trillion in cash, money and precious metals used as currencies in the world will eventually be replaced by cryptocurrencies, which only total $200 billion today."
    It just doesn't work that way but, go on.
    "Ask yourself, why does the world need multiple currencies? There’s actually no real reason. The only reason we have a U.S. dollar and also a Canadian dollar is that in 1770 the people in Canada decided not to join the U.S. So an artificial border created two currencies. It’s all dictated by artificial borders."
    In essence, the borders of a State are defined by/ limited by it's taxing power.
    https://dailyreckoning.com/cryptocur...llion-one-day/
    If the State changes over to a crypto currency from a paper currency, you can bet that it will want a sovereign CC. The State will do what it takes to maintain it's income.

    This brings us to the second article.
    "Gold fever” was the Russian central bank governor’s mocking term for the cryptocurrency moment.
    Then Russia fought cryptocurrencies…"
    The first deputy governor of the central bank:

    “We cannot give direct and easy access to such dubious instruments for retail [investors].”
    Vladimir Putin himself said cryptocurrencies were the coin of crime, of vice, of terrorism; a cutthroat’s money.
    Then cryptocurrencies won…
    Russia’s finance minister conceded last week that “cryptocurrencies are a fact of life.”
    "Now Vladimir Putin has officially called for a Russian cryptocurrency — the “cryptoruble.”
    "Does Russia’s surrender mean we heave the first set into the fire?
    Or maybe Russia’s “surrender” isn’t a surrender at all, but a feint… a flanking maneuver so cunning you could stick a tail on it… and call it a weasel."
    "Cryptocurrencies war against the largest monopoly in the world — the state monopoly on money.
    Why would Russia sign on that dotted line?
    Jim Rickards whiffs a rat:"
    "Libertarian supporters of blockchain celebrate this lack of government control. Yet I believe their celebration is premature and their belief in the sustainability of powerful systems outside government control is naïve.

    Governments don’t like competition, especially when it comes to money. Governments know they cannot stop blockchain — in fact, they don’t want to. What they want is to control it using powers of regulation, taxation and investigation and ultimately more coercive powers, including arrest and imprisonment of individuals who refuse to obey government mandates."
    " With Russia and China both embracing the idea of sovereign cryptocurrencies, it’s time to ask a simple question: Why is a technology threatening to decentralize money so attractive to highly centralized, authoritarian regimes?

    Answering his own question:

    They are trying to figure out how to lower the cost for a centralized issuer to control everything that’s going on in the financial system… The costs of running a monetary system would go down… and transactions would become traceable by governments, above all for tax purposes. "
    "That suspicion is our suspicion — and it would explain Russia’s “surrender.”

    The fox “surrenders” to the chickens and is marched right into the henhouse.
    But we can’t put away another suspicion… the suspicion that cryptocurrencies are the real fox here…"
    https://dailyreckoning.com/gandhi-bitcoin-russia/

    "As I mentioned at the beginning of the article, retail investors are propping up the markets. However, they aren’t the only ones, or should I say, the only factor in keeping the markets from falling off a cliff. Thanks to Uncle Sam, total U.S. debt has increased by $590 billion in just the past month and a half." That can't be true, QE ended years ago.
    "when the U.S. Treasury added another $318 billion of debt on Sept 8th, this propelled the markets higher."
    "So, what we have propping up the markets are DEBT and BRAIN-DEAD RETAIL investors."
    "The ORANGE line represents SMART MONEY, the institutional investors. Here we can see what a proper investment strategy should be during a rising bubble market when one doesn’t suffer from the same illness as the retail investor. Furthermore, the savvy institutional investor is also able to understand the ramifications of the following chart:"

    "Thus, an investor not suffering from BRAIN DAMAGE, (institutional investor), would take this chart as BIG WARNING, whereas the retail investor just wants to know is how quickly he can liquidate his life insurance policy to place an even larger bet in the STOCK MARKET CASINO.

    There is no telling how long the stock market will continue to rise as underlying fundamentals deteriorate. However, all markets held up by debt and stupid money, must crash at some point. "
    so, the institutional investors are unloading their stuff onto retail investors.

    GREAT graphs, "Look for a US Recession entering the news headlines by mid 2018. This is a better than 70% probability based on the CAPE & VIX technicals underlying the historical CAPE/VIX ratio."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/411...g-ahead?page=3

    "On Friday the S&P 500 and the Dow and the Nasdaq carved out simultaneous records, marking the 24th time in 2017 that that feat has occurred." GREAT news.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-...?siteid=YAHOOB

    The GOOD news,,, the military budget can continue growing unchecked. The bad news;
    “51 Republican Senators just voted to cut Medicaid by $1 trillion and Medicare by $500 billion so that millionaires and corporations can get a tax cut. It’s immoral and despicable.”
    http://www.rense.com/general96/senatebudgetbill.html
    But, like Killary says, "it was worth it." https://sputniknews.com/us/201710201...ntagon-global/

    Canada is finding new ways to help the "poor", https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...-wage-earners/

    "According to him, “unprecedented amounts, over $20 trillion in cash, was printed and thrown at Wall St. creditors to repair their technically insolvent balance sheets.”

    “There was no reform or attempt to reign in the crooked behavior of bankers at all. In turn, they interpreted this as a ‘green light’ to keep doing what they had been doing that led to the crash; namely, engage in extreme, reckless borrowing to speculate.”

    A former stockbroker, Keiser said that now in 2017, the debt pyramid has never been higher. “Just one indicator of this would be the sovereign bond market in the US and UK that are trading at multi-hundred-year highs thanks to the Ponzi-economics of central bank debt monetization (printing money and buying back their own debt).”
    https://www.rt.com/business/407274-n...monday-coming/

    This is a cross post, https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...h-rotten-frui/

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